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All three MRPs today bring bad news for the SNP – politicalbetting.com

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  • eekeek Posts: 29,739
    Jonathan said:

    Thought experiment. If Starmer had for some reason had to step down in Dec 2023 and Corbyn or one of his acolytes became leader at the start of this year. Who would win tomorrow?

    Wouldn’t have happened - if Starmer had stood down Wes, Yvette or similar would have been elected leader - the Labour membership want power
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,948
    edited July 2024

    No. The word was "shouting". Watch any of Farage's speeches and you will get the idea...
    That wasn’t actually my point either. It’s the use of rallies as a primary generator of enthusiasm, rather than policy or wider engagement.

    The thing about a rally is it’s exclusive by design. You are talking to your true believers, telling them what they want to hear. Quite often inciting them to fear or loathe the other side. It’s what Trump does, and American politicians of all sides for that matter, it’s what Corbyn and most of the far left seem to spend every weekend doing, it’s a favourite pastime of Islamist rabble rousers and it’s generally not a vehicle for bringing people together. And Farage is very much one of those. He has no desire to bring people together - everything he says is divisive. Likewise Galloway, Corbyn, all the other blowhards.

    The occasional rally to enthuse the base. Fair enough. But large parts of politics on (particularly) the far left but also the far right seem to see it as the acid test of popularity.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,594
    Farooq said:

    True. Bump stock means machine gun. The Supreme Court is bent on driving the USA to chaos.
    The modern GOP

    Jesus
    Guns
    Babies


  • Who is going to be the unfortunate, ashen-faced Tory who has to respond live on TV at 10.02?
    Rees Mogg.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,674

    NEW THREAD

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,331
    Scott_xP said:

    Just nipped to the shops (popcorn refill) and missed the Lib Dems canvassing, again.

    They are dead serious about winning Stratford

    Scott_xP said:

    Just nipped to the shops (popcorn refill) and missed the Lib Dems canvassing, again.

    They are dead serious about winning Stratford

    "Oh, that Brexit obsessed guy? Let's wait until he's out again, and then ring the doorbell."
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100
    eek said:

    Wouldn’t have happened - if Starmer had stood down Wes, Yvette or similar would have been elected leader - the Labour membership want power
    Where’s the fun in that?

    The question is interesting because it reveals it’s not just the Tories being mind bogglingly crap that determines the result.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,677
    Leaflet I got a couple of days ago "Do NOT vote for Wes Streeting". No obvious Party affiliation, but seems to be produced by a certain Glenn Holmes, who, after a bit of Googling, seems to have been a former member of Ilford North CLP.


  • eekeek Posts: 29,739
    bobbob said:

    The difference between a 50 or 200 seat Labour majority isn’t interesting to most people
    The difference between the Tories on 160 or 50 seats in total is going to be interesting. Because although it’s obvious I doubt most people will be surprised when it appears.

    And 160 Tory seats is just 1997 remixed - 50 is popcorn territory
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,400

    This is just over simple and reductive. There's a thousand ways of being mentally whacky and the majority don't involve senile dementia. Trump's shark shtick is no madder than he always has been and doesn't look like running away uncontrollably downhill in weeks or months like Biden does. It's true that a competent adult could run rings round him, but it always has been. It's just a false equivalence to say there's nothing to choose between him and Biden.
    Both candidates are on a steep mental decline curve: go and watch clips from Trump in 2016, and now watch them. He makes mistakes he never used to make. His voice is often mildly slurred.

    With Biden, it's past the point where it can be hidden. But Trump isn't far off either.

    Trump has only gotten away with it because he's facing either incredibly softball interviews, or he's debating Joe Biden.
  • ukelectukelect Posts: 140
    For anyone who hasn't seen far too many forecasts today, here's one more - the final UK-Elect forecast has now been released at https://www.ukelect.co.uk/HTML/forecasts/20240703ForecastUKFinal.html. It has been updated to take account of many of the final opinion polls.

    It shows Labour 426 seats, Conservative 116, Liberal Democrat 57, SNP 17, Reform UK 8, Plaid Cymru 4, and Green 3, giving an overall Labour majority of 204.

    The forecast uses the current UK-Elect default forecasting settings, using the actual candidate list and taking some account of constituency opinion polls, by-elections since 2019, Brexit referendum leave/remain percentages, incumbency, and tactical voting among many other factors. This forecast combines various methods, including both proportional and UNS elements. The forecast top three in every constituency can be found here: https://www.ukelect.co.uk/20240703ForecastUKFinal/UKTop3Forecast.csv

    Be aware that small adjustments to the polling data or methodology can make surprisingly big changes to the result, although never enough to either affect the overall result (a Labour majority of around 190 to 250 seats) or to match some of the most extreme MRP seat projections.

    As previously mentioned, some people may also find the UK-Elect links page useful as it contains a lot of links to election related websites: https://www.ukelect.co.uk/HTML/links.html
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,110

    Leaflet I got a couple of days ago "Do NOT vote for Wes Streeting". No obvious Party affiliation, but seems to be produced by a certain Glenn Holmes, who, after a bit of Googling, seems to have been a former member of Ilford North CLP.


    All caps isn’t a good look
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,664
    edited July 2024

    Whatever happens, we have got
    The Gatling gun, and they have not

    The arms borne by the people do not include automatic rifles let alone military drones and helicopter gunships. A shooting civil war against the Pentagon is not on the cards.
    I'm not sure on that. A shooting war not involving the Pentagon is possible, as is Mr Trump trying to use the armed forces for his own purposes.

    AIUI bump stocks - as used in the 2017 Las Vegas slaughter - have just been made legal again. One 64 year old bloke fired 1000+ rounds in 10 minutes, killing 61 and injuring 400+ people directly. He also had 20kg of explosive.*

    And there are places where they have all kinds of major weapons around. Plus the police are militarised with cast off army stock.

    On October 1, 2017, a mass shooting occurred when 64-year-old Stephen Paddock opened fire on the crowd attending the Route 91 Harvest music festival on the Las Vegas Strip in Nevada from his 32nd-floor suites in the Mandalay Bay hotel. He fired more than 1,000 rounds, killing 60 people[a] and wounding at least 413. The ensuing panic brought the total number of injured to approximately 867.
    ...
    Paddock was found to have fired a total of 1,058 rounds from fifteen of the firearms: 1,049 from twelve AR-15-style rifles, eight from two AR-10-style rifles, and the round used to kill himself from the Smith & Wesson revolver.


    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Las_Vegas_shooting
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,400
    nico679 said:

    That’s extraordinary. Seriously half of the USA population are insane .
    Those numbers are the same for incumbent governments everywhere, and are the consequence of wages not keeping up with inflation. Which is a consequence of the Ukraine war on global commodity prices, and of the Covid demand bounceback.

  • JamesFJamesF Posts: 42
    The Green campaign in Bristol Central has been IMMENSE.

    600 people knocking up tomorrow. I don't have much to compare it to, but surely that's loads?
  • AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,522
    Cookie said:

    A pedant notes: neither TLDR, WTF, IDK or TLA are acronyms. They are abbreviations. For it to be an acronym you need to be able to pronounce it. Like 'Nato'.
    TLDR is routinely pronounced as something akin to "tildir", at least at my workplace. And the others are initialisms rather than abbreviations...
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,331
    Best bet so far still Epson &Ewell where I got £45 on at average odds of 10/1

    Just laid off all of that on Exchange odds-on at 1.79, so that's a net profit of just under £400 if it comes in now, and I also make a tiny profit on Labour (obvs not going to happen) and break even on the Tories too.
  • TresTres Posts: 2,819

    Shy refukkers seems at least as plausible as shy Tories.
    Its the first election they have taken seriously.
    The government have been really, really bad so voters looking for a change but might not be Labour/LD inclined.

    Of course they might continue to do worse than their polling but I'd back 3/1 they do better than the polling too.
    refukkers are too stupid to be shy
  • PB is the forum for a range of Norfolk predictions and so here are the thoughts of Chairman Clutch

    1) Norwich South - Clive Lewis may be an idiot but he is their idiot. Safe Lab Hold.
    2) Norwich North - Smith was popular but has given up long ago. Certain Lab Gain.
    3) Great Yarmouth - Three way bust up with Cons helped by old '9 Jobs' standing down. Narrow Lab Gain with Ref possibly knocking the Cons into third.
    4) South Nofolk - The best rural seat for Lab nowadays despite the repulsive Bacon standing down. Looks a Likely Lab Gain.
    5) Waveney Valley - Should be nailed on Con but the Greens are launching everything at it. They tried in Norwich South many times without success and I suspect this mountain may be just too high for them too. Narrow Con Hold.
    6) Broadland & Fakenham - Prosperous countryside is not safe Con any more - look at Surrey and Oxfordshire. This could be very close and may come down to Reform's share. I give it to the Cons narrowly.
    7) Mid Norfolk - Looks the best Con seat. Likely Con Hold.
    8) North Norfolk - LDs against a very active but politically cloth-eared MP. LDs originally left it off the target list but moved all in a couple of weeks ago. Suggests it could be close but Baker's hard work will probably get him home narrowly.
    9) North West Norfolk - Went Lab in 1997 and there is enough Lab and Reform feeling there to make this a three-way barn-burner. Wild writes a free newspaper column but is otherwise invisible in the seat. The reverse Baker and so this may surprise as in 1997 when a very good and active local Con MP lost to the surprise of everyone, including Lab. Narrow Lab Gain

    - and - the big one -

    10) It is 99.99% certain that the Cons can never lose South West Norfolk - the poster seat for 'white flight' pensioners in their late 70s and 80s. 99.99% certain - but if anyone can lose the seat then it is surely Liz Truss. You cannot underestimate just how poor a local MP she is and just how uninterested she is in South West Norfolk. Reform and Bagge are taking votes from her left and right. LIb Dems and Greens have run no campaign unlike in 2019. Despite that the donkeys will deliver a gift to Sir Keir Starmer by returning La Truss as a lead weight around the neck of the Con Party for years to come.

    So that's told you but be aware that I could well be wrong on them all except the first two. Always remember that all of my predictions are Norfolk 'n' Good!
  • That's the biggest threat to Reform - the id thing.
    Hard to get the IDs out to the bots in time? I think they'll poll 20% anyway
  • AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,522
    edited July 2024
    JamesF said:

    The Green campaign in Bristol Central has been IMMENSE.

    600 people knocking up tomorrow. I don't have much to compare it to, but surely that's loads?

    The Corbyn campaign in Islington North is claiming 1000 involved at the weekends - so, yes, 600 for GOTV during the week is huge!

    (the question is, of course, whether it'll actually do much to help...)
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,321
    geoffw said:

    Singular

    What do you mean? Farage has only one ball?
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,844
    The latest polling for the French Assembly is moving away from a majority being on the cards at all for RN, even if they somehow allied with LR. The ‘front républicain’ not dead yet.

    https://www.rtl.fr/actu/politique/info-rtl-sondage-legislatives-2024-le-rassemblement-national-en-tete-mais-sans-majorite-absolue-7900400562

    RN: 190-220
    NFP: 159-183
    Ensemble: 110-135
    LR: 30-50

    I have no idea who could possibly govern out of that, or who would want to. Attal may be able to stay on by default as some sort of zombie minority government as both NFP and RN look instead to the presidential election.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,664

    Stephen Flynn, JRM, Braverman, Cates. Badenoch, Jenrick, Corbyn all losing would be high points.
    The Labour candidate is about 2/5 and Jenrick about 5/2 in Newark.

    It's looking like clean sweep East Midlands ie N2D2.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 9,012

    What do you mean? Farage has only one ball?
    dyor

  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,630

    Whilst there is clearly still a division between pollsters on the exact level of carnage, lets all be clear on what unites them - the Tories are getting demolished tomorrow. Their best case scenario appears to be getting beat slightly worse than they did in 1997, which took them nearly 2 decades to recover from.

    And the worst case? Well...

    So many people have said that the ReFUKers are going to come home to the Tories. No, they are not. They are in it to win it (conservatism). Farage BFFing Putin dampened their stretch, it didn't damage their core vote.

    With fUKers getting in the Tories way in seat after seat, they will only accelerate the fall of seats.

    13 years is a way short of two decades… Expect nothing less from a Lib Dem!
    In all seriousness best of luck tomorrow.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,135

    This is true. So you should have replied on that post. If you continue this dreadful sloppiness we may have to see if we can get you a job in CCHQ (which is, of course, an FLA)

    You mean ETLA, surely...
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,867

    Well, I make it
    Possibly Norstat? Although they look unlikely now
    Survation final call after 9 and possibly an mrp update if figures require it
    More in Common should have a final headline VI to release
    Ipsos tomorrow

    That's that I believe unless YG have a final headline poll
    Awesome. Thanks @wooliedyed 👍
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