Imagine the faces in the audience and the meltdown here if the exit poll is read out at 10pm as "Conservatives 30 Majority".....
You would make a lot of money. I suspect if Tory high command thought that an overall majority was possible then the odds would be a lot lower.
Indeed. Given that Sunak is campaigning in the Tory heartlands, they know they are going to be pounded like a TSE metaphor. And as I assume they know more than me, that's the way to bet.
Sounds like Biden is done. Only question left are whether they go with Kamala, which realistically means she becomes president now for the benefit of incumbency. Or a West Wing open convention. Pretty obvs what we all want here!
All the many many people who scoffed and chortled at my “Biden is senile” remarks, or who accused me of using trumpite talking points, can now grovel apologetically and pour sour ashes over their heads and make vast contributions to my favourite charity - the Make Leon Rich Society - as the President is about to resign on the grounds of senility
And then you might profitably ask yourself how you keep getting these things wrong as I get them right
Plenty of people on here said he was senile.
Seriously, watching you strut around like a peacock with a superiority complex is like observing a parade of one. Your undisputed talent is to make every conversation, no matter how unrelated, about yourself. You're like a human black hole of dialogue, sucking in all attention and leaving nothing but the cold, empty vacuum of your self-importance. Your arrogance has made your UFO shite self-fulfilling - who the fuck needs the Earth's gravity when your ego sucks in alien craft from Andromeda.
That took you an hour to write, didn't it?
Here's Rochdale Pioneers from February of this year:
"I read @Leon raving on about Biden having dementia...."
Apparently I was raving on. Rave on, Leon, Rave on
‘Raving on’ about things that are either so entirely obvious to most of us that we simply scroll on by, or are so patently loopy that we simply scroll on by, isn’t doing you any favours tbh.
I was accused of raving on about Biden having dementia, six months ago, a year ago, or more - even as half of PB denied that he had dementia, and scoffed at my "Trumpite messaging"
Now the President, it seems, is resigning because he has dementia
If lurkers read me on this forum, they would know this seismic event was highly likely; if they read you or any of the other halfwits, they'd be entirely clueless and this would come as a total shock
On a site dedicated to political betting, I suggest that makes my commentary notably more useful than yours. Also funnier
Come along. You get accused of raving on about things precisely because you rave on about things. Inevitably you can point back to situations where you've been accused of raving on about things and have been proven correct!
If you printed out your commentary it'd be very useful indeed - especially if done so on thin paper in long rolls.
(FWIW I think you do have a rather good insight into quite a lot of issues - perhaps it's all that travel)
Well that's actually quite generous of you, so in the same spirit I will readily confess: yes, I do rave. It's my style. I get into a subject and then I will chew at it like a terrier on ket. To the extent that I have been banned from certain subjects! - and I can understand why. I bored my friends with THAT one. Apologies
However, what really fires me up is when I know I am right and lots of other people are in denial. Biden's senility was an example, lab leak is another - and as @Cookie correctly notes, they are both linked to people being so averse to Trump they lose their critical faculties regarding anything to do with him. It's bizarre. Trump Derangement Syndrome really exists
TLDR: the exit poll and/or the number of projected seats may be wrong. It's best to wait a bit before making conclusive observations and assigning praise/blame.
What the hell is TLDR?
I do hope election night isn’t full of acronyms.
"Too Long: Didn't Read". Used as a synonym for "In summary"
Also gets used as a criticism when someone posts something using a thousand words when ten would have done. In effect “I can’t be bothered to read that lengthy tripe”.
I’m seeing lots of FBPE people saying that Starmer has lost their vote over his EU comments. Could make the difference for the Lib Dems in a few seats.
Another one. Argh. Can you remind me what FBPE stands for please?
Follow back, pro Europe. It was a way for remainers to meet more of their kind and avoid nasty brexit people
The awkward cringiness of the acronym - Follow Back, Pro Europe, really??? - captures the wankiness of the people that adopt it
Remoaners are their own worst enemies. I mean, Steve Bray, is he helping? @Scott_xP - is he persuading anyone on here?
If they had an ounce of humour it would help enormously. But they are so deadly earnest, and earnestly relentless. It has some of the less pleasant aspects of dogmatic religious faith
If Starmer had been leader in 2017 he would not have squandered the gold plated opportunity that May’s terrible campaign presented Labour with. Instead we got another 7 years of Tory thanks to your idiot.
Some critical commentary from YouGov’s latest MRP:
While there is a general expectation across pollsters and analysts that swing will indeed be proportional this time around – that being different to the vast majority of British elections, in which it tends to be uniform – the extent of that proportionality can be the difference between a scenario in which the Conservatives on around 22% of the vote could drop as low as 60 seats or reach as high as 140 seats.
The Conservative vote share at the 2019 general election was roughly 44%. We estimate that the Conservatives will win 22% of the vote share tomorrow. This would be a literal halving of the party’s support since the last election.
We estimate that the proportionality of the swing will be approaching 1:1 proportionality, but will stop short of a situation where, for example, the Conservatives are on 50% on the vote in 2019 and end up on 25% tomorrow. We would anticipate that value to be around 26% or 27%.
If the swing is more proportional than we estimate, then the Conservatives will end up with fewer seats. If the swing is less proportional than we estimate, then the Conservatives will lose less. With no historical markers or comparators for us to benchmark this coming election against, it is very difficult to tell exactly which way this relationship will fall. This, plus the usual caveats around polling regarding statistical uncertainty and margins of error, serve as a reminder to set expectations wide as to exactly what sort of election result we may see come July 5th.
Interesting! Is there an English translation available?
"The number of seats deduced from a MRP depends on whether a uniform or proportional swing is used. But we don't know which one is true. Fun, isn't it? (presses button at random)"
Isn't it the other way round? Isn't the estimate of the degree of proportionality that he is talking about deduced from an MRP, rather than assumed by it?
I’m seeing lots of FBPE people saying that Starmer has lost their vote over his EU comments. Could make the difference for the Lib Dems in a few seats.
Another one. Argh. Can you remind me what FBPE stands for please?
Follow back, pro Europe. It was a way for remainers to meet more of their kind and avoid nasty brexit people
The awkward cringiness of the acronym - Follow Back, Pro Europe, really??? - captures the wankiness of the people that adopt it
Remoaners are their own worst enemies. I mean, Steve Bray, is he helping? @Scott_xP - is he persuading anyone on here?
If they had an ounce of humour it would help enormously. But they are so deadly earnest, and earnestly relentless. It has some of the less pleasant aspects of dogmatic religious faith
Along the same lines as the European Research Group which never did any research on Europe or anything else for that matter.
The Tories will get a higher vote share than the highest number they get in any of the election eve polls. Reform will get a lower share than their lowest forecast. Labour will get just below its average number, the LibDems just above theirs.
Very interesting. The Conservative fall is easily explained given the rise of Reform and the campaign mishaps. The much larger Labour fall is much more of a mystery. Especially given Starmer’s personal ratings have been rising at the same time.
There could be a mixture of reasons. A few:
- Left wing voters peeling away to independents and greens - Tactical voting Dutch salutes - Leaking some votes to Reform in the Red Wall - Some recovery of the SNP during the campaign
Not really.
YouGov found that only 28% of voters have Labour as their first preference.
As it becomes obvious that Labour will win by miles, some of their extra voters are concluding that they might as well vote for what they actually want.
TLDR: the exit poll and/or the number of projected seats may be wrong. It's best to wait a bit before making conclusive observations and assigning praise/blame.
What the hell is TLDR?
I do hope election night isn’t full of acronyms.
WTF?
IDK
Should there be a site policy banning TLAs?
A pedant notes: neither TLDR, WTF, IDK or TLA are acronyms. They are abbreviations. For it to be an acronym you need to be able to pronounce it. Like 'Nato'.
TLDR: the exit poll and/or the number of projected seats may be wrong. It's best to wait a bit before making conclusive observations and assigning praise/blame.
Very interesting. The Conservative fall is easily explained given the rise of Reform and the campaign mishaps. The much larger Labour fall is much more of a mystery. Especially given Starmer’s personal ratings have been rising at the same time.
There could be a mixture of reasons. A few:
- Left wing voters peeling away to independents and greens - Tactical voting Dutch salutes - Leaking some votes to Reform in the Red Wall - Some recovery of the SNP during the campaign
Not really.
YouGov found that only 28% of voters have Labour as their first preference.
As it becomes obvious that Labour will win by miles, some of their extra voters are concluding that they might as well vote for what they actually want.
£10 at 20-1 NOM first thing in the morning at Betfred gets more tempting.
I probably shouldn't share, but one street canvassed this afternoon in South Devon shows how difficult it is to know what is really going on:
Deffo Con 9, possible Con 8, Not voting 3, LibDem 1, Green 1, Reform 0. Not in 19.
So how will that street vote tomorrow?
If that canvass is accurate, it’s a Tory landslide.
But as someone with decades of campaigning experience behind me, in all honesty that looks like the canvass return of someone who doesn’t know what they are doing. Those possible Tory entries are likely all voting for someone else, and that shouldn’t even be allowed as a canvass return on any current day sheet. They should have been pressed as to how they voted last time, at the very least.
How far in percentage terms do the Tories need to be ahead of Reform to not want to pursue an alliance/merger and instead tough it out alone after the election loss? 5? 10?
Very interesting. The Conservative fall is easily explained given the rise of Reform and the campaign mishaps. The much larger Labour fall is much more of a mystery. Especially given Starmer’s personal ratings have been rising at the same time.
There could be a mixture of reasons. A few:
- Left wing voters peeling away to independents and greens - Tactical voting Dutch salutes - Leaking some votes to Reform in the Red Wall - Some recovery of the SNP during the campaign
Not really.
YouGov found that only 28% of voters have Labour as their first preference.
As it becomes obvious that Labour will win by miles, some of their extra voters are concluding that they might as well vote for what they actually want.
Think it’s less interesting this time than next time
Just got a new phone - and in porting over seemingly arbitrary bits and bobs from my old phone, I came across a singularly arresting image. Took me a moment to realise what it was. I'm using my one image of the day to share it. Any guesses what or where this is?
TLDR: the exit poll and/or the number of projected seats may be wrong. It's best to wait a bit before making conclusive observations and assigning praise/blame.
What the hell is TLDR?
I do hope election night isn’t full of acronyms.
WTF?
IDK
Should there be a site policy banning TLAs?
A pedant notes: neither TLDR, WTF, IDK or TLA are acronyms. They are abbreviations. For it to be an acronym you need to be able to pronounce it. Like 'Nato'.
Pedantically, you can pronounce all of those initialisms.
Recall, this is after at least a YEAR of evidence - some of it brazen and blatant - that Biden was going gaga. Even by mid June the very dumbest of PB-ers - eg @Anabobazina - were trying to discount it and ignore it
Not unrelatedly, @Anabobazina was possibly the last PBer to defend the Wet Market Hypothesis
There really is a weird mental phenomenon at work here, where educated (but not very intelligent) people will deliberately believe insane things if the alternative makes them uncomfortable. It is the cerebration of toddlers. The mentality of the impaired
It's EXACTLY the same as Lab leak, and is as simple as this: "If Trump says it, we must disagree with it."
Yes precisely. And it's fucking DUMB as SHIT
It can be less than frustrating to discuss things with people who are telling you something, often quite vociferously and irately, that they don't actually believe themselves.
I probably shouldn't share, but one street canvassed this afternoon in South Devon shows how difficult it is to know what is really going on:
Deffo Con 9, possible Con 8, Not voting 3, LibDem 1, Green 1, Reform 0. Not in 19.
So how will that street vote tomorrow?
If that canvass is accurate, it’s a Tory landslide.
But as someone with decades of campaigning experience behind me, in all honesty that looks like the canvass return of someone who doesn’t know what they are doing. Those possible Tory entries are likely all voting for someone else, and that shouldn’t even be allowed as a canvass return on any current day sheet.
All the evidence from that particular campaign suggests the Tories are going to dominate tomorrow. Interesting to see how true it is.
I did wonder at the time if Farage was lucky in the timing of his gaffe over Putin because it would be forgotten about by the time of the vote. Perhaps the apparent surge for Reform shows this effect materialising.
Just had a long conversation with my teenage daughter. They had a mock election at school. She voted Green. Most people did, apparently. It depressed me. But she said that there was essentially one reason for hers and everyone else's vote: tuition fees. And it makes perfect sense. As adults we have quickly got used to the situation where we expect the next generation to start adulthood in crippling levels of debt. But why should we be? It's ridiculous. To be honest, if that were the Green's only policy I'd vote for them in a shot. Umfortunately they come with a lot of other baggage.
Because there wasn't a proper debate at the time about whether we wanted to (a) carry on having 25-30% going to university and it being free, or (b) having 40-45% going to university and people having to pay for it. The political class fudged it, as usual, until they were forced to take action.
TLDR: the exit poll and/or the number of projected seats may be wrong. It's best to wait a bit before making conclusive observations and assigning praise/blame.
What the hell is TLDR?
I do hope election night isn’t full of acronyms.
WTF?
IDK
Should there be a site policy banning TLAs?
A pedant notes: neither TLDR, WTF, IDK or TLA are acronyms. They are abbreviations. For it to be an acronym you need to be able to pronounce it. Like 'Nato'.
Pedantically, you can pronounce all of those initialisms.
Well you can. But noone does. They say "tee-ell-ay", not 'tla'.
TLDR: the exit poll and/or the number of projected seats may be wrong. It's best to wait a bit before making conclusive observations and assigning praise/blame.
What the hell is TLDR?
I do hope election night isn’t full of acronyms.
WTF?
IDK
Should there be a site policy banning TLAs?
A pedant notes: neither TLDR, WTF, IDK or TLA are acronyms. They are abbreviations. For it to be an acronym you need to be able to pronounce it. Like 'Nato'.
Pedantically, you can pronounce all of those initialisms.
Well you can. But noone does. They say "tee-ell-ay", not 'tla'.
I probably shouldn't share, but one street canvassed this afternoon in South Devon shows how difficult it is to know what is really going on:
Deffo Con 9, possible Con 8, Not voting 3, LibDem 1, Green 1, Reform 0. Not in 19.
So how will that street vote tomorrow?
If that canvass is accurate, it’s a Tory landslide.
But as someone with decades of campaigning experience behind me, that looks like the canvass return of someone who doesn’t know what they are doing.
Oh no, they know what they are doing. Last time our canvas team's efforts got the predicted result to within 0.1% of the actual result. (I have 5 decades of experience behind me - but this past week, relying on stuff I'm fed because I'm out the loop with Covid).
But was it one of the streets that last time had North Korean levels of support? Is it one of the 40% of the constituency in Brixham where support has held up - but whither the other 60% of the seat?
Or is it a David Herdson 2017 eve-of-poll straw in the wind for a rather last minute change in the polls.
Making it your core idea and then not delivering is not a great idea. Maybe they thought the delays and problems would stir people up against Labour somehow?
It will stir up against Labour once they are in office. There is no Plan B. Starmer better pray for some shit weather in the Channel for the next three months. If the migrants start arriving in record numbers - and the snakeheads are going to push the issue to see how many they can expect to get across in the next months and years - any honeymoon period is going to be met with an early divorce.
I remember hearing the Rwanda plan announced by Patel whilst driving through Hucknall. It was one of those seminal moments of performative hideousness from the Johnson Government, which is why I remember it so well. It was a knee jerk from Johnson during a period of stress on his tenure as Prime Minister. It was a stunt derided by several Tory grandees, including Sunak and Cleverly.
Johnson fell and I thought that was that, then Braverman became Home Secretary (twice) and "dreamed" of sending desperate people to a regime that had summarily executed asylum seekers for complaining about their food rations.
I am relieved the courts responded as they did. It is absurdly expensive and despite some over -ramped faux evidence it is no deterrent to the mafia style gangs.
Alongside Brexit this was one of those ludicrous demonstrations of idiocy promoted by the Johnson Government. I thought Sunak was better than that.
Very interesting. The Conservative fall is easily explained given the rise of Reform and the campaign mishaps. The much larger Labour fall is much more of a mystery. Especially given Starmer’s personal ratings have been rising at the same time.
There could be a mixture of reasons. A few:
- Left wing voters peeling away to independents and greens - Tactical voting Dutch salutes - Leaking some votes to Reform in the Red Wall - Some recovery of the SNP during the campaign
Not really.
YouGov found that only 28% of voters have Labour as their first preference.
As it becomes obvious that Labour will win by miles, some of their extra voters are concluding that they might as well vote for what they actually want.
£10 at 20-1 NOM first thing in the morning at Betfred gets more tempting.
I only got 6-1 on Brexit.
You can do much better than that on Betfair if you think NOM is happening.
The thing about Brexit people forget is that Leave was leading in a number of polls up to the Referendum. The polls in the days leading up to the murder of Jo Cox were the most accurate of the final result - after that there seems to have been some sort of shy Leaver effect with a small swing back to Remain. People chose not to believe the polls two weeks earlier. And there was a bit of market manipulation by Farage on the night.
As far as I am aware no polls have come close to showing NOM in this election.
TLDR: the exit poll and/or the number of projected seats may be wrong. It's best to wait a bit before making conclusive observations and assigning praise/blame.
What the hell is TLDR?
I do hope election night isn’t full of acronyms.
WTF?
IDK
Should there be a site policy banning TLAs?
A pedant notes: neither TLDR, WTF, IDK or TLA are acronyms. They are abbreviations. For it to be an acronym you need to be able to pronounce it. Like 'Nato'.
Pedantically, you can pronounce all of those initialisms.
Well you can. But noone does. They say "tee-ell-ay", not 'tla'.
I probably shouldn't share, but one street canvassed this afternoon in South Devon shows how difficult it is to know what is really going on:
Deffo Con 9, possible Con 8, Not voting 3, LibDem 1, Green 1, Reform 0. Not in 19.
So how will that street vote tomorrow?
If that canvass is accurate, it’s a Tory landslide.
But as someone with decades of campaigning experience behind me, that looks like the canvass return of someone who doesn’t know what they are doing.
Oh no, they know what they are doing. Last time our canvas team's results got the result to within 0.1% of the actual result. (I have 5 decades of experience behind me - but this past week, relying on stuff I'm fed because I'm out the loop with Covid).
But was it one of the streets that last time had North Korean levels of support? Is it one of the 40% of the constituency in Brixham where support has held up - but whither the other 60% of the seat?
Or is it a David Herdson 2017 eve-of-poll straw in the wind for a rather last minute change in the polls.
Honestly, dunno.
I suppose the difference is that David Herdson was calling it against his own side.
I probably shouldn't share, but one street canvassed this afternoon in South Devon shows how difficult it is to know what is really going on:
Deffo Con 9, possible Con 8, Not voting 3, LibDem 1, Green 1, Reform 0. Not in 19.
So how will that street vote tomorrow?
If that canvass is accurate, it’s a Tory landslide.
But as someone with decades of campaigning experience behind me, that looks like the canvass return of someone who doesn’t know what they are doing.
Oh no, they know what they are doing. Last time our canvas team's results got the result to within 0.1% of the actual result. (I have 5 decades of experience behind me - but this past week, relying on stuff I'm fed because I'm out the loop with Covid).
But was it one of the streets that last time had North Korean levels of support? Is it one of the 40% of the constituency in Brixham where support has held up - but whither the other 60% of the seat?
Or is it a David Herdson 2017 eve-of-poll straw in the wind for a rather last minute change in the polls.
Honestly, dunno.
If the street is completely unrepresentative of the wider area, there wasn’t really much point in your posting the question.
I’d say it’s fifty fifty as to whether that street really is the refuge of all the Tories in town, or whether that canvasser is an idiot.
Either way, it gives us no useful data whatsoever.
Just got a new phone - and in porting over seemingly arbitrary bits and bobs from my old phone, I came across a singularly arresting image. Took me a moment to realise what it was. I'm using my one image of the day to share it. Any guesses what or where this is?
That WW2 plane that crashed in the peak district and has been left there since as a memorial?
Making it your core idea and then not delivering is not a great idea. Maybe they thought the delays and problems would stir people up against Labour somehow?
It will stir up against Labour once they are in office. There is no Plan B. Starmer better pray for some shit weather in the Channel for the next three months. If the migrants start arriving in record numbers - and the snakeheads are going to push the issue to see how many they can expect to get across in the next months and years - any honeymoon period is going to be met with an early divorce.
I remember hearing the Rwanda plan announced by Patel whilst driving through Hucknall. It was one of those seminal moments of performative hideousness from the Johnson Government, which is why I remember it so well. It was a knee jerk from Johnson during a period of stress on his tenure as Prime Minister. It was a stunt derided by several Tory grandees, including Sunak and Cleverly.
Johnson fell and I thought that was that, then Braverman became Home Secretary (twice) and "dreamed" of sending desperate people to a regime that had summarily executed asylum seekers who had complained about their food rations.
I am relieved the courts responded as they did. It is absurdly expensive and despite some over -ramped faux evidence it is no deterrent to the mafia style gangs.
Alongside Brexit this was one of those ludicrous demonstrations of idiocy promoted by the Johnson Government. I thought Sunak was better than that.
Was there mist rolling off the Misk Hills to make it even more bleak?
President Biden on campaign call that just wrapped, per person on the call:
"Let me say this as clearly as I possibly can as simply and straightforward as I can: I am running…no one’s pushing me out. I’m not leaving. I’m in this race to the end and we’re going to win.”
Just got a new phone - and in porting over seemingly arbitrary bits and bobs from my old phone, I came across a singularly arresting image. Took me a moment to realise what it was. I'm using my one image of the day to share it. Any guesses what or where this is?
President Biden on campaign call that just wrapped, per person on the call:
"Let me say this as clearly as I possibly can as simply and straightforward as I can: I am running…no one’s pushing me out. I’m not leaving. I’m in this race to the end and we’re going to win.”
Some critical commentary from YouGov’s latest MRP:
While there is a general expectation across pollsters and analysts that swing will indeed be proportional this time around – that being different to the vast majority of British elections, in which it tends to be uniform – the extent of that proportionality can be the difference between a scenario in which the Conservatives on around 22% of the vote could drop as low as 60 seats or reach as high as 140 seats.
The Conservative vote share at the 2019 general election was roughly 44%. We estimate that the Conservatives will win 22% of the vote share tomorrow. This would be a literal halving of the party’s support since the last election.
We estimate that the proportionality of the swing will be approaching 1:1 proportionality, but will stop short of a situation where, for example, the Conservatives are on 50% on the vote in 2019 and end up on 25% tomorrow. We would anticipate that value to be around 26% or 27%.
If the swing is more proportional than we estimate, then the Conservatives will end up with fewer seats. If the swing is less proportional than we estimate, then the Conservatives will lose less. With no historical markers or comparators for us to benchmark this coming election against, it is very difficult to tell exactly which way this relationship will fall. This, plus the usual caveats around polling regarding statistical uncertainty and margins of error, serve as a reminder to set expectations wide as to exactly what sort of election result we may see come July 5th.
This is why this election so far has seemed like such a huge outlier.
During my first stint on PB in the late 2000s, the received wisdom was that whilst proportional swing often 'felt' like it should give better results, uniform swing always, always turned out to be closer to reality.
Nowadays, of course, we've gone beyond that. We have Multi-level regression and post-stratification models. We have non-parametric regression models. We have Baxter's model, which appears to be proportional swing + magic tweaks.
So we're relying so heavily on those, and have forgotten all about UNS. And, sure, UNS can't possibly be right in every constituency as it would require negative vote counts in some places. And one variant of MRP was accurate in 2017 (though not so much in 2019).
But here we are in 2024, seeing the final polls herding together yet again, which implies some level of manual adjustment is going on behind the scenes, yet again. Why do we think that MRP, SRP, PNS, or Baxter will produce a better result than UNS this time when they have so rarely done so before?
UNS on current polling produces something like L 400, C 165, LD 45
For the record, my biggest bet is on Con seats in the 50-99 range - which are the sort of numbers that Baxter or the most pessimistic end of the MRPs are producing. But I've got average odds of around 4-1 on that, which I think will probably turn out to be a good value loser.
Last minute wobbles? Probably, yes. But I do think people are getting carried away by the easy availability of Baxter, without realising that it's producing results that are at the extreme end of what others are predicting.
Making it your core idea and then not delivering is not a great idea. Maybe they thought the delays and problems would stir people up against Labour somehow?
It will stir up against Labour once they are in office. There is no Plan B. Starmer better pray for some shit weather in the Channel for the next three months. If the migrants start arriving in record numbers - and the snakeheads are going to push the issue to see how many they can expect to get across in the next months and years - any honeymoon period is going to be met with an early divorce.
I remember hearing the Rwanda plan announced by Patel whilst driving through Hucknall. It was one of those seminal moments of performative hideousness from the Johnson Government, which is why I remember it so well. It was a knee jerk from Johnson during a period of stress on his tenure as Prime Minister. It was a stunt derided by several Tory grandees, including Sunak and Cleverly.
Johnson fell and I thought that was that, then Braverman became Home Secretary (twice) and "dreamed" of sending desperate people to a regime that had summarily executed asylum seekers for complaining about their food rations.
I am relieved the courts responded as they did. It is absurdly expensive and despite some over -ramped faux evidence it is no deterrent to the mafia style gangs.
Alongside Brexit this was one of those ludicrous demonstrations of idiocy promoted by the Johnson Government. I thought Sunak was better than that.
Well "the boats" will soon be a Labour problem. Good luck. You're gonna need it...
Biden doing a June debate had no benefit UNLESS the Dems' Men In Grey Suits made it a condition of support that he performed OK. He didn't - he left everybody's worries about his candidature hanging out there. A June debate meant enough time to change if things went poorly.
Which is where we are at.
The interesting thing is that Trump's faculties are arguably even more shot than Biden's. At least Biden hasn't publically mulled over death by shark versus electrocution. The best outcome is Dems get a new candidate (Dems Without Dementia!) whilst Trump, having got his Kingly immunity, goes undisputedly as mad as King George III.
Yes.
I think that is the thing that is being missed here.
Can you imagine a sane, able to think on their feet, Democrat against Trump?
Go and look at the Fox News interviews with Pete Buttigieg. He's always willing to go on there, and he's so quick on his feet. Now think about him in a debate vs Trump. It could be carnage the other way.
Just got a new phone - and in porting over seemingly arbitrary bits and bobs from my old phone, I came across a singularly arresting image. Took me a moment to realise what it was. I'm using my one image of the day to share it. Any guesses what or where this is?
That WW2 plane that crashed in the peak district and has been left there since as a memorial?
Only read about that quite recently
Spot on and well done! The Bleaklow Bomber. Went up there a couple of years back. Not as much of it left as there once was, but still quite haunting. Worth a trip if you're ever near Glossop.
I often wonder whether the Wire song "Map Ref..." is about it. Probably not.
President Biden on campaign call that just wrapped, per person on the call:
"Let me say this as clearly as I possibly can as simply and straightforward as I can: I am running…no one’s pushing me out. I’m not leaving. I’m in this race to the end and we’re going to win.”
That stubborness and drive is why he became the nominee and won at the age of 78 at his third attempt.
It's a liability now, and dangerous given the Supreme Court has just made Presidents into Kings, but I don't think there's enough unanimity about what to do to force him to stand down.
When people are divided over what to do, a minority opinion can easily take over. Christ, it's how Trump got his foot in the door (and then took a dump).
Biden doing a June debate had no benefit UNLESS the Dems' Men In Grey Suits made it a condition of support that he performed OK. He didn't - he left everybody's worries about his candidature hanging out there. A June debate meant enough time to change if things went poorly.
Which is where we are at.
The interesting thing is that Trump's faculties are arguably even more shot than Biden's. At least Biden hasn't publically mulled over death by shark versus electrocution. The best outcome is Dems get a new candidate (Dems Without Dementia!) whilst Trump, having got his Kingly immunity, goes undisputedly as mad as King George III.
Yes.
I think that is the thing that is being missed here.
Can you imagine a sane, able to think on their feet, Democrat against Trump?
Go and look at the Fox News interviews with Pete Buttigieg. He's always willing to go on there, and he's so quick on his feet. Now think about him in a debate vs Trump. It could be carnage the other way.
That’s wishful thinking. Trump didn’t get the better of all the generic politicians he was up against in 2015/2016 by accident.
Biden doing a June debate had no benefit UNLESS the Dems' Men In Grey Suits made it a condition of support that he performed OK. He didn't - he left everybody's worries about his candidature hanging out there. A June debate meant enough time to change if things went poorly.
Which is where we are at.
The interesting thing is that Trump's faculties are arguably even more shot than Biden's. At least Biden hasn't publically mulled over death by shark versus electrocution. The best outcome is Dems get a new candidate (Dems Without Dementia!) whilst Trump, having got his Kingly immunity, goes undisputedly as mad as King George III.
Yes.
I think that is the thing that is being missed here.
Can you imagine a sane, able to think on their feet, Democrat against Trump?
Go and look at the Fox News interviews with Pete Buttigieg. He's always willing to go on there, and he's so quick on his feet. Now think about him in a debate vs Trump. It could be carnage the other way.
I probably shouldn't share, but one street canvassed this afternoon in South Devon shows how difficult it is to know what is really going on:
Deffo Con 9, possible Con 8, Not voting 3, LibDem 1, Green 1, Reform 0. Not in 19.
So how will that street vote tomorrow?
If that canvass is accurate, it’s a Tory landslide.
But as someone with decades of campaigning experience behind me, that looks like the canvass return of someone who doesn’t know what they are doing.
Oh no, they know what they are doing. Last time our canvas team's results got the result to within 0.1% of the actual result. (I have 5 decades of experience behind me - but this past week, relying on stuff I'm fed because I'm out the loop with Covid).
But was it one of the streets that last time had North Korean levels of support? Is it one of the 40% of the constituency in Brixham where support has held up - but whither the other 60% of the seat?
Or is it a David Herdson 2017 eve-of-poll straw in the wind for a rather last minute change in the polls.
Honestly, dunno.
If the street is completely unrepresentative of the wider area, there wasn’t really much point in your posting the question.
I’d say it’s fifty fifty as to whether that street really is the refuge of all the Tories in town, or whether that canvasser is an idiot.
Either way, it gives us no useful data whatsoever.
It tells us that Labour and Reform are about as popular as bird flu in that street and people are still willing to admit voting Tory in reasonable numbers.
Biden doing a June debate had no benefit UNLESS the Dems' Men In Grey Suits made it a condition of support that he performed OK. He didn't - he left everybody's worries about his candidature hanging out there. A June debate meant enough time to change if things went poorly.
Which is where we are at.
The interesting thing is that Trump's faculties are arguably even more shot than Biden's. At least Biden hasn't publically mulled over death by shark versus electrocution. The best outcome is Dems get a new candidate (Dems Without Dementia!) whilst Trump, having got his Kingly immunity, goes undisputedly as mad as King George III.
Yes.
I think that is the thing that is being missed here.
Can you imagine a sane, able to think on their feet, Democrat against Trump?
Go and look at the Fox News interviews with Pete Buttigieg. He's always willing to go on there, and he's so quick on his feet. Now think about him in a debate vs Trump. It could be carnage the other way.
That’s wishful thinking. Trump didn’t get the better of all the generic politicians he was up against in 2015/2016 by accident.
President Biden on campaign call that just wrapped, per person on the call:
"Let me say this as clearly as I possibly can as simply and straightforward as I can: I am running…no one’s pushing me out. I’m not leaving. I’m in this race to the end and we’re going to win.”
Then brace for Trump 2.0.
'cos Biden can't win now.
Probably not. He's lost it. Trump has lost it too, but his side are better at pretending otherwise.
Making it your core idea and then not delivering is not a great idea. Maybe they thought the delays and problems would stir people up against Labour somehow?
It will stir up against Labour once they are in office. There is no Plan B. Starmer better pray for some shit weather in the Channel for the next three months. If the migrants start arriving in record numbers - and the snakeheads are going to push the issue to see how many they can expect to get across in the next months and years - any honeymoon period is going to be met with an early divorce.
I remember hearing the Rwanda plan announced by Patel whilst driving through Hucknall. It was one of those seminal moments of performative hideousness from the Johnson Government, which is why I remember it so well. It was a knee jerk from Johnson during a period of stress on his tenure as Prime Minister. It was a stunt derided by several Tory grandees, including Sunak and Cleverly.
Johnson fell and I thought that was that, then Braverman became Home Secretary (twice) and "dreamed" of sending desperate people to a regime that had summarily executed asylum seekers for complaining about their food rations.
I am relieved the courts responded as they did. It is absurdly expensive and despite some over -ramped faux evidence it is no deterrent to the mafia style gangs.
Alongside Brexit this was one of those ludicrous demonstrations of idiocy promoted by the Johnson Government. I thought Sunak was better than that.
Sunak didn't like it any more than you do. Just think of the deals he had to do to get the gig unpopular after Truss
I probably shouldn't share, but one street canvassed this afternoon in South Devon shows how difficult it is to know what is really going on:
Deffo Con 9, possible Con 8, Not voting 3, LibDem 1, Green 1, Reform 0. Not in 19.
So how will that street vote tomorrow?
If that canvass is accurate, it’s a Tory landslide.
But as someone with decades of campaigning experience behind me, in all honesty that looks like the canvass return of someone who doesn’t know what they are doing. Those possible Tory entries are likely all voting for someone else, and that shouldn’t even be allowed as a canvass return on any current day sheet. They should have been pressed as to how they voted last time, at the very least.
In a local election we had a canvas sheet from our candidate that was just unbelievably supportive of him. It was just too good. Without telling him we re-canvassed it and got an entirely different result. Most people canvassed are polite and don't want to disappoint you, particularly if you are the candidate. There is a definite skill in canvassing in determining the person's true intentions.
Biden doing a June debate had no benefit UNLESS the Dems' Men In Grey Suits made it a condition of support that he performed OK. He didn't - he left everybody's worries about his candidature hanging out there. A June debate meant enough time to change if things went poorly.
Which is where we are at.
The interesting thing is that Trump's faculties are arguably even more shot than Biden's. At least Biden hasn't publically mulled over death by shark versus electrocution. The best outcome is Dems get a new candidate (Dems Without Dementia!) whilst Trump, having got his Kingly immunity, goes undisputedly as mad as King George III.
Yes.
I think that is the thing that is being missed here.
Can you imagine a sane, able to think on their feet, Democrat against Trump?
Go and look at the Fox News interviews with Pete Buttigieg. He's always willing to go on there, and he's so quick on his feet. Now think about him in a debate vs Trump. It could be carnage the other way.
That’s wishful thinking. Trump didn’t get the better of all the generic politicians he was up against in 2015/2016 by accident.
He didn't get the better of Clinton...
She was very underrated as a candidate and he did still win the election.
I probably shouldn't share, but one street canvassed this afternoon in South Devon shows how difficult it is to know what is really going on:
Deffo Con 9, possible Con 8, Not voting 3, LibDem 1, Green 1, Reform 0. Not in 19.
So how will that street vote tomorrow?
If that canvass is accurate, it’s a Tory landslide.
But as someone with decades of campaigning experience behind me, that looks like the canvass return of someone who doesn’t know what they are doing.
Oh no, they know what they are doing. Last time our canvas team's results got the result to within 0.1% of the actual result. (I have 5 decades of experience behind me - but this past week, relying on stuff I'm fed because I'm out the loop with Covid).
But was it one of the streets that last time had North Korean levels of support? Is it one of the 40% of the constituency in Brixham where support has held up - but whither the other 60% of the seat?
Or is it a David Herdson 2017 eve-of-poll straw in the wind for a rather last minute change in the polls.
Honestly, dunno.
If the street is completely unrepresentative of the wider area, there wasn’t really much point in your posting the question.
I’d say it’s fifty fifty as to whether that street really is the refuge of all the Tories in town, or whether that canvasser is an idiot.
Either way, it gives us no useful data whatsoever.
It tells us that Labour and Reform are about as popular as bird flu in that street and people are still willing to admit voting Tory in reasonable numbers.
All it tells me is that people may be happy to lie to Tory canvassers
Biden doing a June debate had no benefit UNLESS the Dems' Men In Grey Suits made it a condition of support that he performed OK. He didn't - he left everybody's worries about his candidature hanging out there. A June debate meant enough time to change if things went poorly.
Which is where we are at.
The interesting thing is that Trump's faculties are arguably even more shot than Biden's. At least Biden hasn't publically mulled over death by shark versus electrocution. The best outcome is Dems get a new candidate (Dems Without Dementia!) whilst Trump, having got his Kingly immunity, goes undisputedly as mad as King George III.
Yes.
I think that is the thing that is being missed here.
Can you imagine a sane, able to think on their feet, Democrat against Trump?
Go and look at the Fox News interviews with Pete Buttigieg. He's always willing to go on there, and he's so quick on his feet. Now think about him in a debate vs Trump. It could be carnage the other way.
Buttigieg is excellent at handling hostile questions on Fox but (a) he's gay, is America really ready for that? (b) He's not nearly as well know and has minimal name recognition; (c) He has not been tested in any debates against rivals, let alone someone so off the wall as Trump and (d) he does not have a single vote from all of the primaries.
I really don't see how the Democrats get there. Kamala Harris has very few of his skills but has a far more obvious path to the top seat.
Just got a new phone - and in porting over seemingly arbitrary bits and bobs from my old phone, I came across a singularly arresting image. Took me a moment to realise what it was. I'm using my one image of the day to share it. Any guesses what or where this is?
Some critical commentary from YouGov’s latest MRP:
While there is a general expectation across pollsters and analysts that swing will indeed be proportional this time around – that being different to the vast majority of British elections, in which it tends to be uniform – the extent of that proportionality can be the difference between a scenario in which the Conservatives on around 22% of the vote could drop as low as 60 seats or reach as high as 140 seats.
The Conservative vote share at the 2019 general election was roughly 44%. We estimate that the Conservatives will win 22% of the vote share tomorrow. This would be a literal halving of the party’s support since the last election.
We estimate that the proportionality of the swing will be approaching 1:1 proportionality, but will stop short of a situation where, for example, the Conservatives are on 50% on the vote in 2019 and end up on 25% tomorrow. We would anticipate that value to be around 26% or 27%.
If the swing is more proportional than we estimate, then the Conservatives will end up with fewer seats. If the swing is less proportional than we estimate, then the Conservatives will lose less. With no historical markers or comparators for us to benchmark this coming election against, it is very difficult to tell exactly which way this relationship will fall. This, plus the usual caveats around polling regarding statistical uncertainty and margins of error, serve as a reminder to set expectations wide as to exactly what sort of election result we may see come July 5th.
This is why this election so far has seemed like such a huge outlier.
During my first stint on PB in the late 2000s, the received wisdom was that whilst proportional swing often 'felt' like it should give better results, uniform swing always, always turned out to be closer to reality.
Nowadays, of course, we've gone beyond that. We have Multi-level regression and post-stratification models. We have non-parametric regression models. We have Baxter's model, which appears to be proportional swing + magic tweaks.
So we're relying so heavily on those, and have forgotten all about UNS. And, sure, UNS can't possibly be right in every constituency as it would require negative vote counts in some places. And one variant of MRP was accurate in 2017 (though not so much in 2019).
But here we are in 2024, seeing the final polls herding together yet again, which implies some level of manual adjustment is going on behind the scenes, yet again. Why do we think that MRP, SRP, PNS, or Baxter will produce a better result than UNS this time when they have so rarely done so before?
UNS on current polling produces something like L 400, C 165, LD 45
For the record, my biggest bet is on Con seats in the 50-99 range - which are the sort of numbers that Baxter or the most pessimistic end of the MRPs are producing. But I've got average odds of around 4-1 on that, which I think will probably turn out to be a good value loser.
Last minute wobbles? Probably, yes. But I do think people are getting carried away by the easy availability of Baxter, without realising that it's producing results that are at the extreme end of what others are predicting.
UNS and proportionate swing - they're both just models, neither is micro-founded. MRPs look more data-driven and micro-founded, but it becomes clear when reading about the workings that they still rely on those same two models, just acting upon subgroups of the population like students in Canterbury.
None of these differ much on two-party swings of 1, 3, 5% like in the 2010s. Now we have a swing that's possibly in the high teens or even twenties. To me, that does mean the choice of model matters more this time. And the central fact of the last six weeks of polling has been a swathe of Conservative support cut out by Reform UK. I do favour UNS, on historical average. But if proportional swing is true this time, it may be because of the realigning impact of Boris/GBD in 2019 - winning proportionally more votes in exactly the areas that we'd assume will go harder for Reform.
That looks like a very hefty CON > REF swing in just a couple of days. Fuck. Let's Baxter it:
Hah. Incredible
LAB: 466 CON: 68 LD: 68 REF: 7 GRN: 3
Jeez. Imagine if that is the result. The Opposition would either be Tories + Reform, or - more likely? - LDs plus Green
Would anyone ally with the SNP? I doubt it
Lib Dem plus Alliance Party of Northern Ireland, who look set to get a second seat...
Wouldn't the DUP then back the Tories to annoy the Alliance though?
Even less chance of that happening than APNI joining LD.
They've been hit hard by being fooled by those English disloyalists over the Windsor Framework. No way are they cosying up to the Tories for another parliament at least...
Just got a new phone - and in porting over seemingly arbitrary bits and bobs from my old phone, I came across a singularly arresting image. Took me a moment to realise what it was. I'm using my one image of the day to share it. Any guesses what or where this is?
That WW2 plane that crashed in the peak district and has been left there since as a memorial?
Only read about that quite recently
Spot on and well done! The Bleaklow Bomber. Went up there a couple of years back. Not as much of it left as there once was, but still quite haunting. Worth a trip if you're ever near Glossop.
I often wonder whether the Wire song "Map Ref..." is about it. Probably not.
I'm kicking myself for not going to see it on one of my many drives out into the Peak District while at Uni in Salford around the the Berlin Wall stopped being maintained.
That said, no t'internet in those days, so unless someone local told you about it you were, like me, unlikely to discover it.
Comments
However, what really fires me up is when I know I am right and lots of other people are in denial. Biden's senility was an example, lab leak is another - and as @Cookie correctly notes, they are both linked to people being so averse to Trump they lose their critical faculties regarding anything to do with him. It's bizarre. Trump Derangement Syndrome really exists
And now I too must do things. Manana
Me: I wish there was a "None of the above box" to tick to say bollocks to the lot of them.
Other: So do I. Actually there is. It says "Reform"
🚨FINAL Westminster Voting Intention of #GE2024 for @Telegraph
📈Highest ever Reform UK share in a Savanta poll
🌹Lab 39 (=)
🌳Con 20 (-4)
➡️Reform 17 (+4)
🔶LD 10 (=)
🌍Green 5 (+1)
🎗️SNP 2 (-1)
⬜️Other 7 (=)
2,101 UK adults
2-3 July (chg from 28-30 Jun)
Thanks for asking.
YouGov found that only 28% of voters have Labour as their first preference.
As it becomes obvious that Labour will win by miles, some of their extra voters are concluding that they might as well vote for what they actually want.
I only got 6-1 on Brexit.
But as someone with decades of campaigning experience behind me, in all honesty that looks like the canvass return of someone who doesn’t know what they are doing. Those possible Tory entries are likely all voting for someone else, and that shouldn’t even be allowed as a canvass return on any current day sheet. They should have been pressed as to how they voted last time, at the very least.
Hah. Incredible
LAB: 466
CON: 68
LD: 68
REF: 7
GRN: 3
Jeez. Imagine if that is the result. The Opposition would either be Tories + Reform, or - more likely? - LDs plus Green
Would anyone ally with the SNP? I doubt it
The theme of this election is “f the tories”
You can’t rely on that vote next cycle
Trump: 49%
Biden: 43%
Do you think Donald Trump left the country better or worse than when he took office?
Better 48%
Worse 47%
———
Do you think Joe Biden has made the country better or worse since taking office?
Better 36%
Worse 57%
He should meet the First Minister of Scotland first though.
There is a real possibility the CONS will be overtaken by REF tomorrow, in votes
Lab 442
Con 111
Ld 58
SNP 15
Ref 1
Others 23
Source - c4 news
Con and LDs a little high there I think,
But was it one of the streets that last time had North Korean levels of support? Is it one of the 40% of the constituency in Brixham where support has held up - but whither the other 60% of the seat?
Or is it a David Herdson 2017 eve-of-poll straw in the wind for a rather last minute change in the polls.
Honestly, dunno.
Johnson fell and I thought that was that, then Braverman became Home Secretary (twice) and "dreamed" of sending desperate people to a regime that had summarily executed asylum seekers for complaining about their food rations.
I am relieved the courts responded as they did. It is absurdly expensive and despite some over -ramped faux evidence it is no deterrent to the mafia style gangs.
Alongside Brexit this was one of those ludicrous demonstrations of idiocy promoted by the Johnson Government. I thought Sunak was better than that.
Reform merely turned a defeat into an annihilation.
Ref too low
The thing about Brexit people forget is that Leave was leading in a number of polls up to the Referendum. The polls in the days leading up to the murder of Jo Cox were the most accurate of the final result - after that there seems to have been some sort of shy Leaver effect with a small swing back to Remain. People chose not to believe the polls two weeks earlier. And there was a bit of market manipulation by Farage on the night.
As far as I am aware no polls have come close to showing NOM in this election.
I’d say it’s fifty fifty as to whether that street really is the refuge of all the Tories in town, or whether that canvasser is an idiot.
Either way, it gives us no useful data whatsoever.
Only read about that quite recently
President Biden on campaign call that just wrapped, per person on the call:
"Let me say this as clearly as I possibly can as simply and straightforward as I can: I am running…no one’s pushing me out. I’m not leaving. I’m in this race to the end and we’re going to win.”
'cos Biden can't win now.
During my first stint on PB in the late 2000s, the received wisdom was that whilst proportional swing often 'felt' like it should give better results, uniform swing always, always turned out to be closer to reality.
Nowadays, of course, we've gone beyond that. We have Multi-level regression and post-stratification models. We have non-parametric regression models. We have Baxter's model, which appears to be proportional swing + magic tweaks.
So we're relying so heavily on those, and have forgotten all about UNS. And, sure, UNS can't possibly be right in every constituency as it would require negative vote counts in some places. And one variant of MRP was accurate in 2017 (though not so much in 2019).
But here we are in 2024, seeing the final polls herding together yet again, which implies some level of manual adjustment is going on behind the scenes, yet again. Why do we think that MRP, SRP, PNS, or Baxter will produce a better result than UNS this time when they have so rarely done so before?
UNS on current polling produces something like L 400, C 165, LD 45
For the record, my biggest bet is on Con seats in the 50-99 range - which are the sort of numbers that Baxter or the most pessimistic end of the MRPs are producing. But I've got average odds of around 4-1 on that, which I think will probably turn out to be a good value loser.
Last minute wobbles? Probably, yes. But I do think people are getting carried away by the easy availability of Baxter, without realising that it's producing results that are at the extreme end of what others are predicting.
I think that is the thing that is being missed here.
Can you imagine a sane, able to think on their feet, Democrat against Trump?
Go and look at the Fox News interviews with Pete Buttigieg. He's always willing to go on there, and he's so quick on his feet. Now think about him in a debate vs Trump. It could be carnage the other way.
And that is your only guess!
I often wonder whether the Wire song "Map Ref..." is about it. Probably not.
It's a liability now, and dangerous given the Supreme Court has just made Presidents into Kings, but I don't think there's enough unanimity about what to do to force him to stand down.
When people are divided over what to do, a minority opinion can easily take over. Christ, it's how Trump got his foot in the door (and then took a dump).
It's just Leon hasn't grasped it yet.
Yep, he’s done. Bring on Harris…
https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1808562262812082275
I really don't see how the Democrats get there. Kamala Harris has very few of his skills but has a far more obvious path to the top seat.
None of these differ much on two-party swings of 1, 3, 5% like in the 2010s. Now we have a swing that's possibly in the high teens or even twenties. To me, that does mean the choice of model matters more this time. And the central fact of the last six weeks of polling has been a swathe of Conservative support cut out by Reform UK. I do favour UNS, on historical average. But if proportional swing is true this time, it may be because of the realigning impact of Boris/GBD in 2019 - winning proportionally more votes in exactly the areas that we'd assume will go harder for Reform.
They've been hit hard by being fooled by those English disloyalists over the Windsor Framework. No way are they cosying up to the Tories for another parliament at least...
That said, no t'internet in those days, so unless someone local told you about it you were, like me, unlikely to discover it.
The best shop sold pizzas I've had are undoubtedly Crosta & Mollica. My favourite of theirs is the Capricciosa
Just found one in Waitrose with a yellow sticker: £1.39 !! I'll enjoy that even more than I would a full priced one
I saw this on a front door today