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All three MRPs today bring bad news for the SNP – politicalbetting.com
All three MRPs today bring bad news for the SNP – politicalbetting.com
? Final @YouGov MRP shows Labour's majority increasing *again* to 212Lab 431 (+6 from the last MRP)Con 102 (-6)Lib Dem 72 (+5)SNP 18 (-2)Reform 3 (-2)Plaid 4 (-)Green 2 (-) pic.twitter.com/S02dfRfP0T
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The MP totals predicted from those three MRPs
Labour MPs: 431 / 444 / 430
Tory MPs: 102 / 108 / 126
Reform MPs: 3 / 2 / 2
Lib Dem MPs: 72 / 57 / 52
SNP MPs: 18 / 15 / 16
[YouGov / Focaldata / More In Common]
Corrected entry scuppered by new fred. Here it is again. Apols for my general incompetence. Thanks for running the comp!
General Election Competition
In how many seats will:
1. Reform beat Conservative (don't count draws)? 32
2. Labour finish 3rd or lower (don't count where they didn't stand)? 78
3. Conservatives lose their deposit? 12
4. Lib Dems lose their deposit? 202
5. Reform lose their deposit? 60
6. Labour lose their deposit? 0
How big:
7. Will the largest winning vote margin be? 31,023
8. Will the biggest notional majority defeated be (only count where the incumbent party stands)? 27,023
How small:
9. Will the smallest winning vote margin be (1st - 2nd)? 23
10. Will the smallest gap between 1st and 3rd be? 654
11. Will the lowest number of votes for any candidate? 8
How many:
12. Parties will be elected (whether or not they take their seats. All true independents are grouped as a single party)? 12
13. Seats will the Conservatives win? 68
14. Seats will Labour win? 462
15. Seats will Lib Dems win? 72
16. Seats will the SNP win? 15
17. Seats will Sinn Fein win? 7
18. Seats will DUP win? 6
19. Seats will Reform come second in? 62
What percentage vote:
20. Will Conservatives get across the UK? 21.3%
21. Will Reform get across the UK? 13.8%
22. Will SNP get in Scotland? 32.1%
23. Will be lowest of any winning candidate? 28.3%
24. Will be highest of any 2nd place candidate? 42.1%
25. Will Speaker get? 72.1%
This has been the most stressed I have ever been editing PB.
(Stressed is the right word, I laugh in the face of stress, then say rude things about their mum as go home to cry to mummy.)
They tried to park their tanks on Reform lawn and looked crazy. There are loads of policies they could have proposed that would have gone them ok, instead the only policy the campaign will be remembered for National Service and then its all Sky, D-Day, insider betting disaster stuff.
Sounds like Biden is done. Only question left are whether they go with Kamala, which realistically means she becomes president now for the benefit of incumbency. Or a West Wing open convention. Pretty obvs what we all want here!
After the Titanic fuck-up somebody must have misheard Sunak saying: "Just make sure the last rally doesn't look like the fall of Saigon."
https://x.com/KennyFarq/status/1808249611192357054
🚨Final Call Voting Intention🚨
Labour lead by 17 points in our final call poll.
Con 22% (+1)
Lab 39% (-3)
Lib Dem 10% (-1)
Reform 17% (+1)
SNP 2% (-1)
Green 7% (+3)
Other 3%(-)
Fieldwork: 29th June to 3rd July 2024
Sample: 1,737 GB adults
(Change from 27th to 29th June 2024)
Runnymede and Weybridge - LD - 12/1 (YouGov has Con 31, LD 30)
NE Hampshire - LD - 7/1 (YouGov has LD 39, Con 33)
N Dorset - LD- 12/1 (YouGov has LD 37, Con 35)
🚨Final Call Voting Intention🚨
Labour lead by 17 points in our final call poll.
Con 22% (+1)
Lab 39% (-3)
Lib Dem 10% (-1)
Reform 17% (+1)
SNP 2% (-1)
Green 7% (+3)
Other 3%(-)
Fieldwork: 29th June to 3rd July 2024
Sample: 1,737 GB adults
(Change from 27th to 29th June 2024)
https://x.com/DeltapollUK/status/1808546417876906085
None of the circumstances that led to 1992 or 2015 exist now.
All depends where that SNP vote goes.
After picking H. Clinton as a POTUS candidate, and having their favourite member of the Supreme Court stay on until the Republicans appointed her successor, what else would they do?
Sunak leaving D-Day early will be still talked about in 50 years.
It should now be closer to 4 than 5.6 I think ?
Layed some of my Whitmer bests to pay for it.
*I wasn’t.
The gap in net approval between the two leaders on the eve of the election stands at forty-seven points.
https://x.com/DeltapollUK/status/1808548286099300808
@hewitson10
Johnny Mercer’s wife Lost her shit with gulf war veterans today & phoned the police on them because they had banners saying ‘Johnny Mercer Out’
Felicity Mercer so unhinged
wasting the police’s valuable time for this WOKE nonsense ~ SNOWFLAKE
#ToryWipeout2024 #FelicityMinge"
https://x.com/hewitson10/status/1808493058515698139
When you think about it, for a party that has been so electorally successful, the past 30 years, on the whole they have run very poor campaigns.
There are strong arguments - not least the risk of putting a target in the back of a President without a VP - for Biden carrying on even if he's not running.
https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/49950-final-yougov-mrp-shows-labour-on-course-for-historic-election-victory
North Dorset
LD 37%
Con 35%
Ref 13%
Lab 10%
Grn 4%
*still not very likely!
And then you might profitably ask yourself how you keep getting these things wrong as I get them right
Granted it just about worked and they pulled out the first Con majority for 23 years but maybe if they'd been a bit more positive the result would have been even better?
In May 2022, 10% of Cons 2019 voters said immigration was a top concern, and among that group 39% said Tories were best on immigration.
Today, 40% say it’s a top concern, but now only 20% of them say Tories are best on the issue, vs 40% who say Reform.….
…"Sir, I have good news and bad news. The good news is our wedge issue worked beautifully. The bad news is, we’re on the wrong side of the wedge."
https://x.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1808543994797752809
@BillKristol
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2m
“'Seventy-two percent of people want something different. Why not give it to them?' asked James Carville on a conference call for dozens of donors to the Democratic SuperPAC American Bridge. 'They’re just asking for a different choice.'”
Both of today’s MRP releases for Newton Abbot put the LibDems and Tories running very close. Who’d have thought?
Is the misogyny acceptable because she's a Tory?
It was unclear what was said between the two men
NY Times
Hopefully Schumer told him to go and tend his garden.
Even suppose Corbyn or Pidcock or someone were Labour leader, I don't think the Tories would win this time. The centre would have rallied round the LDs, as they are in about 70 seats now.
They won the Brexit vote, which BoZo didn't want, and fucked everything up from there
They won the election, and had zero clue what to do next
YouGov MRP, Ynys Môn:
Lab 29%
Con 27%
PC 25%
Ref 13%
LD 4%
Grn 2%
https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/49950-final-yougov-mrp-shows-labour-on-course-for-historic-election-victory
Then Biden did an early debate to deal with the age thing...
(BTW, how many constituencies names are in fact best known for their race course?)
It’s 370 on Betfair.
Three hundred and seventy.
Personally I'm wondering whether to put between £5 and £20 on NOM at 16-1 but will probably be frit.
And then doing a last rally at a Fall of Saigon reenactment place.
While there is a general expectation across pollsters and analysts that swing will indeed be proportional this time around – that being different to the vast majority of British elections, in which it tends to be uniform – the extent of that proportionality can be the difference between a scenario in which the Conservatives on around 22% of the vote could drop as low as 60 seats or reach as high as 140 seats.
The Conservative vote share at the 2019 general election was roughly 44%. We estimate that the Conservatives will win 22% of the vote share tomorrow. This would be a literal halving of the party’s support since the last election.
We estimate that the proportionality of the swing will be approaching 1:1 proportionality, but will stop short of a situation where, for example, the Conservatives are on 50% on the vote in 2019 and end up on 25% tomorrow. We would anticipate that value to be around 26% or 27%.
If the swing is more proportional than we estimate, then the Conservatives will end up with fewer seats. If the swing is less proportional than we estimate, then the Conservatives will lose less. With no historical markers or comparators for us to benchmark this coming election against, it is very difficult to tell exactly which way this relationship will fall. This, plus the usual caveats around polling regarding statistical uncertainty and margins of error, serve as a reminder to set expectations wide as to exactly what sort of election result we may see come July 5th.
Do you work for Ladbrokes? You seem keen to advertise their shite prices!!
https://x.com/gordonbrown/status/1808531042975756594
I tipped her on here a fortnight ago at 38/1. She now in at 12’s and that’s likely to shorten very quickly on this kind of form.
Do I think Emma will lift the title? No. Well, probably not. But it’s great to see her playing so well again today. She is showing how and why she won the US Open at the age of 18.
Stunning play.
@ClippP
Power to the People