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All three MRPs today bring bad news for the SNP – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,917
edited July 4 in General
All three MRPs today bring bad news for the SNP – politicalbetting.com

? Final @YouGov MRP shows Labour's majority increasing *again* to 212Lab 431 (+6 from the last MRP)Con 102 (-6)Lib Dem 72 (+5)SNP 18 (-2)Reform 3 (-2)Plaid 4 (-)Green 2 (-) pic.twitter.com/S02dfRfP0T

Read the full story here

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  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,605
    First like Keith?
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    GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    Second like Ed
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,982
    @benrileysmith
    The MP totals predicted from those three MRPs

    Labour MPs: 431 / 444 / 430
    Tory MPs: 102 / 108 / 126
    Reform MPs: 3 / 2 / 2
    Lib Dem MPs: 72 / 57 / 52
    SNP MPs: 18 / 15 / 16

    [YouGov / Focaldata / More In Common]
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    jamesdoylejamesdoyle Posts: 745
    edited July 3
    Third like someone other than rishi. Ok, fourth like rishi
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 58,106
    Bad for the Yestapo and the WaffenYesYes.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,605
    Scott_xP said:

    @benrileysmith
    The MP totals predicted from those three MRPs

    Labour MPs: 431 / 444 / 430
    Tory MPs: 102 / 108 / 126
    Reform MPs: 3 / 2 / 2
    Lib Dem MPs: 72 / 57 / 52
    SNP MPs: 18 / 15 / 16

    [YouGov / Focaldata / More In Common]

    All three have Con holding on to official Opposition status though YouGov is getting pretty close...
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 33,915
    @Farooq

    Corrected entry scuppered by new fred. Here it is again. Apols for my general incompetence. Thanks for running the comp!

    General Election Competition

    In how many seats will:
    1. Reform beat Conservative (don't count draws)? 32
    2. Labour finish 3rd or lower (don't count where they didn't stand)? 78
    3. Conservatives lose their deposit? 12
    4. Lib Dems lose their deposit? 202
    5. Reform lose their deposit? 60
    6. Labour lose their deposit? 0

    How big:
    7. Will the largest winning vote margin be? 31,023
    8. Will the biggest notional majority defeated be (only count where the incumbent party stands)? 27,023

    How small:
    9. Will the smallest winning vote margin be (1st - 2nd)? 23
    10. Will the smallest gap between 1st and 3rd be? 654
    11. Will the lowest number of votes for any candidate? 8

    How many:
    12. Parties will be elected (whether or not they take their seats. All true independents are grouped as a single party)? 12
    13. Seats will the Conservatives win? 68
    14. Seats will Labour win? 462
    15. Seats will Lib Dems win? 72
    16. Seats will the SNP win? 15
    17. Seats will Sinn Fein win? 7
    18. Seats will DUP win? 6
    19. Seats will Reform come second in? 62

    What percentage vote:
    20. Will Conservatives get across the UK? 21.3%
    21. Will Reform get across the UK? 13.8%
    22. Will SNP get in Scotland? 32.1%
    23. Will be lowest of any winning candidate? 28.3%
    24. Will be highest of any 2nd place candidate? 42.1%
    25. Will Speaker get? 72.1%

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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,946
    We have a final MRP to come. JL Partners will release their final update on c4 news from 7
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    SNP1 Seat. Tories 0.
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 33,915

    We have a final MRP to come. JL Partners will release their final update on c4 news from 7

    Hung parliament anyone?
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    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,363
    I'm not sure I've mentioned it before but I suppose I ought to discuss my own vote. I will not be voting tomorrow as I don't have the necessary ID - passport/driving licence - to do so. I did look into it a few weeks ago but alas haven't got round to doing it. Anyway it's always been a safe Labour seat and I'm not enthused by any of the main parties. I would have voted SDP if they had a candidate but they don't.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 30,246
    The Tory campaign hasn't been bad, just non-existent.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 58,106
    Andy_JS said:

    The Tory campaign hasn't been bad, just non-existent.

    They haven't had the money, the activists or the staff.
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    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,217
    edited July 3
    Last time the YouGov MRP two weeks out was the most accurate IIRC
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    BobSykesBobSykes Posts: 46
    Andy_JS said:

    The Tory campaign hasn't been bad, just non-existent.

    To be fair the Tories were rather caught on the hop... by the Tory PM's shock early election decision after assuring them all for months they had until October or November!
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    DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,048
    99% of Mail Online commenters seem to expect an overall majority for Reform.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 117,033
    DM_Andy said:

    99% of Mail Online commenters seem to expect an overall majority for Reform.

    I need to introduce them to Betfair.
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,946
    DM_Andy said:

    99% of Mail Online commenters seem to expect an overall majority for Reform.

    It would be rather concerning if the first result is reform booting Bridget Phillipson out
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    jamesdoylejamesdoyle Posts: 745
    Andy_JS said:

    The Tory campaign hasn't been bad, just non-existent.

    Rain, D-Day, putting a cartoon hat and moustache on Ange - yes, it's been bad.
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    moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,321
    https://x.com/tomfitton/status/1808520385954029594?s=46&t=Vp6NqNN4ktoNY0DO98xlGA

    Sounds like Biden is done. Only question left are whether they go with Kamala, which realistically means she becomes president now for the benefit of incumbency. Or a West Wing open convention. Pretty obvs what we all want here!
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 117,033

    Andy_JS said:

    The Tory campaign hasn't been bad, just non-existent.

    Rain, D-Day, putting a cartoon hat and moustache on Ange - yes, it's been bad.
    My favourite was last night as Sunak recreated the Fall of Saigon.

    After the Titanic fuck-up somebody must have misheard Sunak saying: "Just make sure the last rally doesn't look like the fall of Saigon."



    https://x.com/KennyFarq/status/1808249611192357054
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,946
    Deltapoll final call is another herdster
    🚨Final Call Voting Intention🚨
    Labour lead by 17 points in our final call poll.
    Con 22% (+1)
    Lab 39% (-3)
    Lib Dem 10% (-1)
    Reform 17% (+1)
    SNP 2% (-1)
    Green 7% (+3)
    Other 3%(-)
    Fieldwork: 29th June to 3rd July 2024
    Sample: 1,737 GB adults
    (Change from 27th to 29th June 2024)
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    MisterBedfordshireMisterBedfordshire Posts: 1,763
    Imagine the faces in the audience and the meltdown here if the exit poll is read out at 10pm as "Conservatives 30 Majority".....
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    GarethoftheVale2GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 2,152
    Just been trawling through the seat markets using the Yougov MRP. Best odds i got were:

    Runnymede and Weybridge - LD - 12/1 (YouGov has Con 31, LD 30)
    NE Hampshire - LD - 7/1 (YouGov has LD 39, Con 33)
    N Dorset - LD- 12/1 (YouGov has LD 37, Con 35)
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,982
    @DeltapollUK
    🚨Final Call Voting Intention🚨
    Labour lead by 17 points in our final call poll.
    Con 22% (+1)
    Lab 39% (-3)
    Lib Dem 10% (-1)
    Reform 17% (+1)
    SNP 2% (-1)
    Green 7% (+3)
    Other 3%(-)
    Fieldwork: 29th June to 3rd July 2024
    Sample: 1,737 GB adults
    (Change from 27th to 29th June 2024)

    https://x.com/DeltapollUK/status/1808546417876906085
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    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,280

    Imagine the faces in the audience and the meltdown here if the exit poll is read out at 10pm as "Conservatives 30 Majority".....

    That would be quite amusing.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 117,033

    Imagine the faces in the audience and the meltdown here if the exit poll is read out at 10pm as "Conservatives 30 Majority".....

    I'd recommend you go to A&E right now, the fall you have had has given you a brain injury.

    None of the circumstances that led to 1992 or 2015 exist now.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 60,122

    Just been trawling through the seat markets using the Yougov MRP. Best odds i got were:

    Runnymede and Weybridge - LD - 12/1 (YouGov has Con 31, LD 30)
    NE Hampshire - LD - 7/1 (YouGov has LD 39, Con 33)
    N Dorset - LD- 12/1 (YouGov has LD 37, Con 35)

    I'm on N Dorset at 20.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 58,106
    I have 5 x Scottish seat bets on Labour and I think 3 x of those come in with the YouGov MRP.

    All depends where that SNP vote goes.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 79,291

    Deltapoll final call is another herdster
    🚨Final Call Voting Intention🚨
    Labour lead by 17 points in our final call poll.
    Con 22% (+1)
    Lab 39% (-3)
    Lib Dem 10% (-1)
    Reform 17% (+1)
    SNP 2% (-1)
    Green 7% (+3)
    Other 3%(-)
    Fieldwork: 29th June to 3rd July 2024
    Sample: 1,737 GB adults
    (Change from 27th to 29th June 2024)

    It doesn't seem all the racist / Russia stuff has really dented Reform too much.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 60,122

    Andy_JS said:

    The Tory campaign hasn't been bad, just non-existent.

    Rain, D-Day, putting a cartoon hat and moustache on Ange - yes, it's been bad.
    My favourite was last night as Sunak recreated the Fall of Saigon.

    After the Titanic fuck-up somebody must have misheard Sunak saying: "Just make sure the last rally doesn't look like the fall of Saigon."



    https://x.com/KennyFarq/status/1808249611192357054
    No. No. You gotta be kidding me!!!!??? They didn't did they?
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,982

    Andy_JS said:

    The Tory campaign hasn't been bad, just non-existent.

    Rain, D-Day, putting a cartoon hat and moustache on Ange - yes, it's been bad.
    My favourite was last night as Sunak recreated the Fall of Saigon.

    After the Titanic fuck-up somebody must have misheard Sunak saying: "Just make sure the last rally doesn't look like the fall of Saigon."



    https://x.com/KennyFarq/status/1808249611192357054
    I am going to change my avatar tomorrow...
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    DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,048

    Imagine the faces in the audience and the meltdown here if the exit poll is read out at 10pm as "Conservatives 30 Majority".....

    You would make a lot of money. I suspect if Tory high command thought that an overall majority was possible then the odds would be a lot lower.
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    No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,193
    moonshine said:

    https://x.com/tomfitton/status/1808520385954029594?s=46&t=Vp6NqNN4ktoNY0DO98xlGA

    Sounds like Biden is done. Only question left are whether they go with Kamala, which realistically means she becomes president now for the benefit of incumbency. Or a West Wing open convention. Pretty obvs what we all want here!

    It is the Democratic party - they will take the West Wing option.
    After picking H. Clinton as a POTUS candidate, and having their favourite member of the Supreme Court stay on until the Republicans appointed her successor, what else would they do?
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,605
    Andy_JS said:

    The Tory campaign hasn't been bad, just non-existent.

    Sorry Andy J, the Tory campaign has been absolutely atrocious.

    Sunak leaving D-Day early will be still talked about in 50 years.
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    Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    DM_Andy said:

    99% of Mail Online commenters seem to expect an overall majority for Reform.

    Well it does seem to be the Brown Shirts preffered newsletter...
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,905
    edited July 3
    Loaded up on Harris at current Betfair odds.
    It should now be closer to 4 than 5.6 I think ?

    Layed some of my Whitmer bests to pay for it.
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    boulayboulay Posts: 5,085

    Andy_JS said:

    The Tory campaign hasn't been bad, just non-existent.

    Rain, D-Day, putting a cartoon hat and moustache on Ange - yes, it's been bad.
    My favourite was last night as Sunak recreated the Fall of Saigon.

    After the Titanic fuck-up somebody must have misheard Sunak saying: "Just make sure the last rally doesn't look like the fall of Saigon."



    https://x.com/KennyFarq/status/1808249611192357054
    Now I was at the US embassy during the fall of Saigon* that balmy spring of 1975 and I can assure you that everyone getting on to those helicopters felt a million times more secure about their futures than everyone in that photo.

    *I wasn’t.
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    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,363
    If Biden steps aside for Harris with immediate effect doesn't that make her much harder to remove as the nominee than if he said he wouldn't run for a second term?
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,982
    @DeltapollUK

    The gap in net approval between the two leaders on the eve of the election stands at forty-seven points.

    https://x.com/DeltapollUK/status/1808548286099300808
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 30,246
    "kerry ✊💙Save Our NHS
    @hewitson10

    Johnny Mercer’s wife Lost her shit with gulf war veterans today & phoned the police on them because they had banners saying ‘Johnny Mercer Out’

    Felicity Mercer so unhinged

    wasting the police’s valuable time for this WOKE nonsense ~ SNOWFLAKE

    #ToryWipeout2024 #FelicityMinge"

    https://x.com/hewitson10/status/1808493058515698139
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,290
    I think Corbyn might be worth a flutter in Islington North. It's going to be close. DYOR
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    MisterBedfordshireMisterBedfordshire Posts: 1,763
    DM_Andy said:

    Imagine the faces in the audience and the meltdown here if the exit poll is read out at 10pm as "Conservatives 30 Majority".....

    You would make a lot of money. I suspect if Tory high command thought that an overall majority was possible then the odds would be a lot lower.
    Someone would. 100-1 on Ladbrokes.

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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 79,291
    edited July 3
    The Tory campaign has been a disaster from start to finsh, but I am actually trying to think when was the last good one. 2015. 2010 wasn't great for the Tories either.

    When you think about it, for a party that has been so electorally successful, the past 30 years, on the whole they have run very poor campaigns.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,905
    moonshine said:

    https://x.com/tomfitton/status/1808520385954029594?s=46&t=Vp6NqNN4ktoNY0DO98xlGA

    Sounds like Biden is done. Only question left are whether they go with Kamala, which realistically means she becomes president now for the benefit of incumbency. Or a West Wing open convention. Pretty obvs what we all want here!

    No it doesn't.
    There are strong arguments - not least the risk of putting a target in the back of a President without a VP - for Biden carrying on even if he's not running.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 51,032
    DM_Andy said:

    99% of Mail Online commenters seem to expect an overall majority for Reform.

    In Trumpian fashion, they will no doubt march on Downing Street to prevent the transfer of power to Starmer... "Stop the Steal!"
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,982

    I think Corbyn might be worth a flutter in Islington North. It's going to be close. DYOR

    I'm on
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,290

    The Tory campaign has been a disaster from start to finsh, but I am actually trying to think when was the last good one. 2015. 2010 wasn't great for the Tories either.

    The Tories ran a brilliant, below the radar campaign in 2015. They targeted expertly.

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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,605

    The Tory campaign has been a disaster from start to finsh, but I am actually trying to think when was the last good one. 2015. 2010 wasn't great for the Tories either.

    2019 - Say what you like about Boris and Cummings but they knew how to deploy an effective campaign.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 30,246
    The new YouGov MRP is the first one I can recall which has North Dorset going to the LDs.

    https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/49950-final-yougov-mrp-shows-labour-on-course-for-historic-election-victory

    North Dorset

    LD 37%
    Con 35%
    Ref 13%
    Lab 10%
    Grn 4%
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    PedestrianRockPedestrianRock Posts: 578
    moonshine said:

    https://x.com/tomfitton/status/1808520385954029594?s=46&t=Vp6NqNN4ktoNY0DO98xlGA

    Sounds like Biden is done. Only question left are whether they go with Kamala, which realistically means she becomes president now for the benefit of incumbency. Or a West Wing open convention. Pretty obvs what we all want here!

    I do agree Biden is done but not sure why Tom Fitton, a Pro-Trump election denier and misinformation spreader, would necessarily have any useful info for us.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 79,291
    edited July 3
    Andy_JS said:

    "kerry ✊💙Save Our NHS
    @hewitson10

    Johnny Mercer’s wife Lost her shit with gulf war veterans today & phoned the police on them because they had banners saying ‘Johnny Mercer Out’

    Felicity Mercer so unhinged

    wasting the police’s valuable time for this WOKE nonsense ~ SNOWFLAKE

    #ToryWipeout2024 #FelicityMinge"

    https://x.com/hewitson10/status/1808493058515698139

    To be fair, I think Johnny Mercer and his wife get a lot of targeted hate. I am not 100% sure why, is he the worst of the worst of the Tories? I am not sure Mrs Mercer always reacts well, but for instance Voderman is constantly directing a pile on against them, she seems to have a real vendetta against Mrs Mercer. I thought the one really taking the biscuit was when she was going on about how they were total thickos because they didn't go to university.
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    GIN1138 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    The Tory campaign hasn't been bad, just non-existent.

    Sorry Andy J, the Tory campaign has been absolutely atrocious.

    Sunak leaving D-Day early will be still talked about in 50 years.
    The entire campaign has made a terrible situation cataclysmic. In a parallel universe the Tories got back to to 30 if it weren't for Sunak.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 51,032

    Imagine the faces in the audience and the meltdown here if the exit poll is read out at 10pm as "Conservatives 30 Majority".....

    More likely* is an exit poll of "Labour majority of 26" which then gets whittled down to NOM as Tories win a string of very close seats.

    *still not very likely!
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,946
    Andy_JS said:

    "kerry ✊💙Save Our NHS
    @hewitson10

    Johnny Mercer’s wife Lost her shit with gulf war veterans today & phoned the police on them because they had banners saying ‘Johnny Mercer Out’

    Felicity Mercer so unhinged

    wasting the police’s valuable time for this WOKE nonsense ~ SNOWFLAKE

    #ToryWipeout2024 #FelicityMinge"

    https://x.com/hewitson10/status/1808493058515698139

    Minister for Karens
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    MisterBedfordshireMisterBedfordshire Posts: 1,763

    DM_Andy said:

    99% of Mail Online commenters seem to expect an overall majority for Reform.

    In Trumpian fashion, they will no doubt march on Downing Street to prevent the transfer of power to Starmer... "Stop the Steal!"
    March will start at Tooting Broadway Station.
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    LeonLeon Posts: 51,187
    moonshine said:

    https://x.com/tomfitton/status/1808520385954029594?s=46&t=Vp6NqNN4ktoNY0DO98xlGA

    Sounds like Biden is done. Only question left are whether they go with Kamala, which realistically means she becomes president now for the benefit of incumbency. Or a West Wing open convention. Pretty obvs what we all want here!

    All the many many people who scoffed and chortled at my “Biden is senile” remarks, or who accused me of using trumpite talking points, can now grovel apologetically and pour sour ashes over their heads and make vast contributions to my favourite charity - the Make Leon Rich Society - as the President is about to resign on the grounds of senility

    And then you might profitably ask yourself how you keep getting these things wrong as I get them right
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 30,246
    edited July 3
    moonshine said:

    https://x.com/tomfitton/status/1808520385954029594?s=46&t=Vp6NqNN4ktoNY0DO98xlGA

    Sounds like Biden is done. Only question left are whether they go with Kamala, which realistically means she becomes president now for the benefit of incumbency. Or a West Wing open convention. Pretty obvs what we all want here!

    Is Tom Fitton a sauce we can rely on? Never heard of him.
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    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,217

    Imagine the faces in the audience and the meltdown here if the exit poll is read out at 10pm as "Conservatives 30 Majority".....

    We've all been following your advice and that of MexicanPete and have put a money on a small Tory majoritu. Nailed on.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,605
    edited July 3

    The Tory campaign has been a disaster from start to finsh, but I am actually trying to think when was the last good one. 2015. 2010 wasn't great for the Tories either.

    The Tories ran a brilliant, below the radar campaign in 2015. They targeted expertly.

    The problem with 2015 (and it was a problem with all the Cameron/Osborne campaigns and eventually caught up with them in referendum) is that it was all negative, negative, negative.

    Granted it just about worked and they pulled out the first Con majority for 23 years but maybe if they'd been a bit more positive the result would have been even better?
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    I still can’t get over spectacularly Rwanda and small boats blew up in their face.

    In May 2022, 10% of Cons 2019 voters said immigration was a top concern, and among that group 39% said Tories were best on immigration.

    Today, 40% say it’s a top concern, but now only 20% of them say Tories are best on the issue, vs 40% who say Reform.….

    …"Sir, I have good news and bad news. The good news is our wedge issue worked beautifully. The bad news is, we’re on the wrong side of the wedge."



    https://x.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1808543994797752809
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 60,122
    Nigelb said:

    moonshine said:

    https://x.com/tomfitton/status/1808520385954029594?s=46&t=Vp6NqNN4ktoNY0DO98xlGA

    Sounds like Biden is done. Only question left are whether they go with Kamala, which realistically means she becomes president now for the benefit of incumbency. Or a West Wing open convention. Pretty obvs what we all want here!

    No it doesn't.
    There are strong arguments - not least the risk of putting a target in the back of a President without a VP - for Biden carrying on even if he's not running.
    Bill Kristol
    @BillKristol
    ·
    2m
    “'Seventy-two percent of people want something different. Why not give it to them?' asked James Carville on a conference call for dozens of donors to the Democratic SuperPAC American Bridge. 'They’re just asking for a different choice.'”
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,194
    The optimum result for me is Tory seats 101. Maximising both their humiliation and my betting return.

    Both of today’s MRP releases for Newton Abbot put the LibDems and Tories running very close. Who’d have thought?
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 58,106
    Andy_JS said:

    "kerry ✊💙Save Our NHS
    @hewitson10

    Johnny Mercer’s wife Lost her shit with gulf war veterans today & phoned the police on them because they had banners saying ‘Johnny Mercer Out’

    Felicity Mercer so unhinged

    wasting the police’s valuable time for this WOKE nonsense ~ SNOWFLAKE

    #ToryWipeout2024 #FelicityMinge"

    https://x.com/hewitson10/status/1808493058515698139

    Hashtags.

    Is the misogyny acceptable because she's a Tory?
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 79,291
    edited July 3
    GIN1138 said:

    The Tory campaign has been a disaster from start to finsh, but I am actually trying to think when was the last good one. 2015. 2010 wasn't great for the Tories either.

    2019 - Say what you like about Boris and Cummings but they knew how to deploy an effective campaign.
    I don't think it was brilliant. The Get Brexit Done was brilliant marketing (regardless of if you agree with it or not), but the actual campaign was rather trolley-ified.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 60,122
    President Biden spoke with Senator Chuck Schumer, the majority leader, on Wednesday morning for the first time since the president’s disastrous debate performance against former President Donald J. Trump last week, according to two people briefed on the matter.

    It was unclear what was said between the two men

    NY Times


    Hopefully Schumer told him to go and tend his garden.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,018
    Andy_JS said:

    moonshine said:

    https://x.com/tomfitton/status/1808520385954029594?s=46&t=Vp6NqNN4ktoNY0DO98xlGA

    Sounds like Biden is done. Only question left are whether they go with Kamala, which realistically means she becomes president now for the benefit of incumbency. Or a West Wing open convention. Pretty obvs what we all want here!

    Is Tom Fitton a sauce we can rely on? Never heard of him.
    He has "left media minions" in his pinned tweets so I doubt he's particularly close to the beating heart of the Biden campaign
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    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 11,588

    The Tory campaign has been a disaster from start to finsh, but I am actually trying to think when was the last good one. 2015. 2010 wasn't great for the Tories either.

    When you think about it, for a party that has been so electorally successful, the past 30 years, on the whole they have run very poor campaigns.

    When you have governed for 14 years the campaign has to be just the finishing touches to the self-evident offer to the public based on your record. Making every possible allowance for Covid, Ukraine and the world's imperfections, this has not been possible for the Tories since two things happened: Partygate etc; and Starmer getting Labour sorted.

    Even suppose Corbyn or Pidcock or someone were Labour leader, I don't think the Tories would win this time. The centre would have rallied round the LDs, as they are in about 70 seats now.
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    MisterBedfordshireMisterBedfordshire Posts: 1,763

    Imagine the faces in the audience and the meltdown here if the exit poll is read out at 10pm as "Conservatives 30 Majority".....

    More likely* is an exit poll of "Labour majority of 26" which then gets whittled down to NOM as Tories win a string of very close seats.

    *still not very likely!
    Might be worth the current 16-1 on Ladbrokes
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,982
    GIN1138 said:

    The Tory campaign has been a disaster from start to finsh, but I am actually trying to think when was the last good one. 2015. 2010 wasn't great for the Tories either.

    2019 - Say what you like about Boris and Cummings but they knew how to deploy an effective campaign.
    And the lesson is never let either of those fuckers anywhere near another campaign...

    They won the Brexit vote, which BoZo didn't want, and fucked everything up from there

    They won the election, and had zero clue what to do next
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 79,291
    algarkirk said:

    The Tory campaign has been a disaster from start to finsh, but I am actually trying to think when was the last good one. 2015. 2010 wasn't great for the Tories either.

    When you think about it, for a party that has been so electorally successful, the past 30 years, on the whole they have run very poor campaigns.

    When you have governed for 14 years the campaign has to be just the finishing touches to the self-evident offer to the public based on your record. Making every possible allowance for Covid, Ukraine and the world's imperfections, this has not been possible for the Tories since two things happened: Partygate etc; and Starmer getting Labour sorted.

    Even suppose Corbyn or Pidcock or someone were Labour leader, I don't think the Tories would win this time. The centre would have rallied round the LDs, as they are in about 70 seats now.
    Oh they differently behind the 8 ball through their own actions. But they made it even worse during the campaign.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,194

    The Tory campaign has been a disaster from start to finsh, but I am actually trying to think when was the last good one. 2015. 2010 wasn't great for the Tories either.

    When you think about it, for a party that has been so electorally successful, the past 30 years, on the whole they have run very poor campaigns.

    Every time it’s “never mind that we’re mediocre, Labour will really fuck things up”. When the look of Labour suggests that this is true, it works. When it doesn’t, it doesn’t.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 30,246
    edited July 3
    An interesting feature of many of the recent MRPs is the way they've been showing the Tories surprisingly close to winning in Ynys Môn despite defending a majority of only 1,968 (5.4%).

    YouGov MRP, Ynys Môn:

    Lab 29%
    Con 27%
    PC 25%
    Ref 13%
    LD 4%
    Grn 2%

    https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/49950-final-yougov-mrp-shows-labour-on-course-for-historic-election-victory

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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,605
    Scott_xP said:

    GIN1138 said:

    The Tory campaign has been a disaster from start to finsh, but I am actually trying to think when was the last good one. 2015. 2010 wasn't great for the Tories either.

    2019 - Say what you like about Boris and Cummings but they knew how to deploy an effective campaign.
    And the lesson is never let either of those fuckers anywhere near another campaign...

    They won the Brexit vote, which BoZo didn't want, and fucked everything up from there

    They won the election, and had zero clue what to do next
    Indeed! But it was still the best campaign Con have run since probably 1992?
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 51,032

    DM_Andy said:

    99% of Mail Online commenters seem to expect an overall majority for Reform.

    In Trumpian fashion, they will no doubt march on Downing Street to prevent the transfer of power to Starmer... "Stop the Steal!"
    March will start at Tooting Broadway Station.
    Not Barking?
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 60,122
    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    https://x.com/tomfitton/status/1808520385954029594?s=46&t=Vp6NqNN4ktoNY0DO98xlGA

    Sounds like Biden is done. Only question left are whether they go with Kamala, which realistically means she becomes president now for the benefit of incumbency. Or a West Wing open convention. Pretty obvs what we all want here!

    All the many many people who scoffed and chortled at my “Biden is senile” remarks, or who accused me of using trumpite talking points, can now grovel apologetically and pour sour ashes over their heads and make vast contributions to my favourite charity - the Make Leon Rich Society - as the President is about to resign on the grounds of senility

    And then you might profitably ask yourself how you keep getting these things wrong as I get them right
    I can't remember whether I chortled and scoffed at your line on Biden, but I was sure he would be the nominee and the age thing could be dealt with.

    Then Biden did an early debate to deal with the age thing...
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,460
    Scott_xP said:

    @benrileysmith
    The MP totals predicted from those three MRPs

    Labour MPs: 431 / 444 / 430
    Tory MPs: 102 / 108 / 126
    Reform MPs: 3 / 2 / 2
    Lib Dem MPs: 72 / 57 / 52
    SNP MPs: 18 / 15 / 16

    [YouGov / Focaldata / More In Common]

    Everyone pick your favourite. I'll go for 3.
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    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 11,588
    IanB2 said:

    The optimum result for me is Tory seats 101. Maximising both their humiliation and my betting return.

    Both of today’s MRP releases for Newton Abbot put the LibDems and Tories running very close. Who’d have thought?

    Being Newton Abbot, maybe a neck or a short head will divide them?

    (BTW, how many constituencies names are in fact best known for their race course?)

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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,946
    Andy_JS said:

    An interesting feature of many of the recent MRPs is the way they've been showing the Tories surprisingly close to winning in Ynys Môn despite defending a majority of only 1,968 (5.4%).

    YouGov MRP, Ynys Môn:

    Lab 29%
    Con 27%
    PC 25%
    Ref 13%
    LD 4%
    Grn 2%

    https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/49950-final-yougov-mrp-shows-labour-on-course-for-historic-election-victory

    The sole Tory Welsh seat being Ynys Mon would be Keith Bestastic
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    ChrisChris Posts: 11,636
    Andy_JS said:

    moonshine said:

    https://x.com/tomfitton/status/1808520385954029594?s=46&t=Vp6NqNN4ktoNY0DO98xlGA

    Sounds like Biden is done. Only question left are whether they go with Kamala, which realistically means she becomes president now for the benefit of incumbency. Or a West Wing open convention. Pretty obvs what we all want here!

    Is Tom Fitton a sauce we can rely on? Never heard of him.
    He seems to be a fervent Trumpite. Difficult to imagine why he should be privy to inside information from the Democrat camp.
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    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 21,733

    DM_Andy said:

    Imagine the faces in the audience and the meltdown here if the exit poll is read out at 10pm as "Conservatives 30 Majority".....

    You would make a lot of money. I suspect if Tory high command thought that an overall majority was possible then the odds would be a lot lower.
    Someone would. 100-1 on Ladbrokes.

    Nobody in their right mind would take that price.

    It’s 370 on Betfair.

    Three hundred and seventy.
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    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,814
    GIN1138 said:

    The Tory campaign has been a disaster from start to finsh, but I am actually trying to think when was the last good one. 2015. 2010 wasn't great for the Tories either.

    The Tories ran a brilliant, below the radar campaign in 2015. They targeted expertly.

    The problem with 2015 (and it was a problem with all the Cameron/Osborne campaigns and eventually caught up with them in referendum) is that it was all negative, negative, negative.

    Granted it just about worked and they pulled out the first Con majority for 23 years but maybe if they'd been a bit more positive the result would have been even better?
    They would have been better off with a minority - no referendum, no Brexit, none of the consequences that followed that.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,460

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    https://x.com/tomfitton/status/1808520385954029594?s=46&t=Vp6NqNN4ktoNY0DO98xlGA

    Sounds like Biden is done. Only question left are whether they go with Kamala, which realistically means she becomes president now for the benefit of incumbency. Or a West Wing open convention. Pretty obvs what we all want here!

    All the many many people who scoffed and chortled at my “Biden is senile” remarks, or who accused me of using trumpite talking points, can now grovel apologetically and pour sour ashes over their heads and make vast contributions to my favourite charity - the Make Leon Rich Society - as the President is about to resign on the grounds of senility

    And then you might profitably ask yourself how you keep getting these things wrong as I get them right
    I can't remember whether I chortled and scoffed at your line on Biden, but I was sure he would be the nominee and the age thing could be dealt with.

    Then Biden did an early debate to deal with the age thing...
    I'm sure it seemed a good idea at the time. Trump's team were clearly rattled, since they spent the week in advance saying how Biden would be hopped up on drugs and that's why he would look good in the debate.
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    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,131

    We have a final MRP to come. JL Partners will release their final update on c4 news from 7

    I cannot keep up.

    This has been the most stressed I have ever been editing PB.

    (Stressed is the right word, I laugh in the face of stress, then say rude things about their mum as go home to cry to mummy.)
    We have got this far today without a genuine 💥 though.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,194

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    https://x.com/tomfitton/status/1808520385954029594?s=46&t=Vp6NqNN4ktoNY0DO98xlGA

    Sounds like Biden is done. Only question left are whether they go with Kamala, which realistically means she becomes president now for the benefit of incumbency. Or a West Wing open convention. Pretty obvs what we all want here!

    All the many many people who scoffed and chortled at my “Biden is senile” remarks, or who accused me of using trumpite talking points, can now grovel apologetically and pour sour ashes over their heads and make vast contributions to my favourite charity - the Make Leon Rich Society - as the President is about to resign on the grounds of senility

    And then you might profitably ask yourself how you keep getting these things wrong as I get them right
    I can't remember whether I chortled and scoffed at your line on Biden, but I was sure he would be the nominee and the age thing could be dealt with.

    Then Biden did an early debate to deal with the age thing...
    Scoffing and chortling at Leon’s randomly spurious output is simply PB’s default setting. It’s building castles on sand for him to make anything of it.
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    MisterBedfordshireMisterBedfordshire Posts: 1,763
    DougSeal said:

    Imagine the faces in the audience and the meltdown here if the exit poll is read out at 10pm as "Conservatives 30 Majority".....

    We've all been following your advice and that of MexicanPete and have put a money on a small Tory majoritu. Nailed on.
    Then you stand a very small chance of winning a wodge and being subject to a gambling commission enquiry and a very large chance of enhancing bookies profits and not being subject to a gambling commission enquiry.

    Personally I'm wondering whether to put between £5 and £20 on NOM at 16-1 but will probably be frit.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 60,122

    GIN1138 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    The Tory campaign hasn't been bad, just non-existent.

    Sorry Andy J, the Tory campaign has been absolutely atrocious.

    Sunak leaving D-Day early will be still talked about in 50 years.
    The entire campaign has made a terrible situation cataclysmic. In a parallel universe the Tories got back to to 30 if it weren't for Sunak.
    He seems to have nicely topped things off on the final day by claiming that a man worth billions has a favourite meal of "sandwiches".

    And then doing a last rally at a Fall of Saigon reenactment place.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,194
    Some critical commentary from YouGov’s latest MRP:

    While there is a general expectation across pollsters and analysts that swing will indeed be proportional this time around – that being different to the vast majority of British elections, in which it tends to be uniform – the extent of that proportionality can be the difference between a scenario in which the Conservatives on around 22% of the vote could drop as low as 60 seats or reach as high as 140 seats.

    The Conservative vote share at the 2019 general election was roughly 44%. We estimate that the Conservatives will win 22% of the vote share tomorrow. This would be a literal halving of the party’s support since the last election.

    We estimate that the proportionality of the swing will be approaching 1:1 proportionality, but will stop short of a situation where, for example, the Conservatives are on 50% on the vote in 2019 and end up on 25% tomorrow. We would anticipate that value to be around 26% or 27%.

    If the swing is more proportional than we estimate, then the Conservatives will end up with fewer seats. If the swing is less proportional than we estimate, then the Conservatives will lose less. With no historical markers or comparators for us to benchmark this coming election against, it is very difficult to tell exactly which way this relationship will fall. This, plus the usual caveats around polling regarding statistical uncertainty and margins of error, serve as a reminder to set expectations wide as to exactly what sort of election result we may see come July 5th.
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    MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,701
    Tremendous Emma Raducanu! That was a tricky one and never in doubt.
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    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 21,733

    Imagine the faces in the audience and the meltdown here if the exit poll is read out at 10pm as "Conservatives 30 Majority".....

    More likely* is an exit poll of "Labour majority of 26" which then gets whittled down to NOM as Tories win a string of very close seats.

    *still not very likely!
    Might be worth the current 16-1 on Ladbrokes
    It really wouldn’t, given it’s 34 on Betfair.

    Do you work for Ladbrokes? You seem keen to advertise their shite prices!!
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,460

    I still can’t get over spectacularly Rwanda and small boats blew up in their face.

    In May 2022, 10% of Cons 2019 voters said immigration was a top concern, and among that group 39% said Tories were best on immigration.

    Today, 40% say it’s a top concern, but now only 20% of them say Tories are best on the issue, vs 40% who say Reform.….

    …"Sir, I have good news and bad news. The good news is our wedge issue worked beautifully. The bad news is, we’re on the wrong side of the wedge."



    https://x.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1808543994797752809

    Making it your core idea and then not delivering is not a great idea. Maybe they thought the delays and problems would stir people up against Labour somehow?
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 79,291
    edited July 3

    GIN1138 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    The Tory campaign hasn't been bad, just non-existent.

    Sorry Andy J, the Tory campaign has been absolutely atrocious.

    Sunak leaving D-Day early will be still talked about in 50 years.
    The entire campaign has made a terrible situation cataclysmic. In a parallel universe the Tories got back to to 30 if it weren't for Sunak.
    He seems to have nicely topped things off on the final day by claiming that a man worth billions has a favourite meal of "sandwiches".

    And then doing a last rally at a Fall of Saigon reenactment place.
    Sunak is quite a strange guy with these soft ball questions...what one thing don't we know about you, that might make us like you more...soft ball question, insert cute story of things you do with your kids....I LIKE COKE.
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    moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,321
    Andy_JS said:

    moonshine said:

    https://x.com/tomfitton/status/1808520385954029594?s=46&t=Vp6NqNN4ktoNY0DO98xlGA

    Sounds like Biden is done. Only question left are whether they go with Kamala, which realistically means she becomes president now for the benefit of incumbency. Or a West Wing open convention. Pretty obvs what we all want here!

    Is Tom Fitton a sauce we can rely on? Never heard of him.
    No idea. 2m followers, he’d hear rumours. But it’s not just him, it really feels like the dam broke in the last 24hrs with D congressional figures speaking out.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,774
    The campaign has reached the Gordon Brown intervention stage:

    https://x.com/gordonbrown/status/1808531042975756594
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    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,072
    Emma Raducanu in blistering form at Wimbledon this afternoon beating Elise Mertens 6-1, 6-2. Mertens is no slouch in women’s tennis.

    I tipped her on here a fortnight ago at 38/1. She now in at 12’s and that’s likely to shorten very quickly on this kind of form.

    Do I think Emma will lift the title? No. Well, probably not. But it’s great to see her playing so well again today. She is showing how and why she won the US Open at the age of 18.

    Stunning play.

    @ClippP
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    MisterBedfordshireMisterBedfordshire Posts: 1,763

    DM_Andy said:

    99% of Mail Online commenters seem to expect an overall majority for Reform.

    In Trumpian fashion, they will no doubt march on Downing Street to prevent the transfer of power to Starmer... "Stop the Steal!"
    March will start at Tooting Broadway Station.
    Not Barking?
    Tooting has form for this sort of thing.

    Power to the People
This discussion has been closed.