Thought experiment. If Starmer had for some reason had to step down in Dec 2023 and Corbyn or one of his acolytes became leader at the start of this year. Who would win tomorrow?
Wouldn’t have happened - if Starmer had stood down Wes, Yvette or similar would have been elected leader - the Labour membership want power
Frankly anyone whose answer to the country’s problem is to shout to braying crowds at a rally is probably not the sort of politician we want anywhere near power.
We don't want any politician who speaks at a rally?
Ok.
No. The word was "shouting". Watch any of Farage's speeches and you will get the idea...
That wasn’t actually my point either. It’s the use of rallies as a primary generator of enthusiasm, rather than policy or wider engagement.
The thing about a rally is it’s exclusive by design. You are talking to your true believers, telling them what they want to hear. Quite often inciting them to fear or loathe the other side. It’s what Trump does, and American politicians of all sides for that matter, it’s what Corbyn and most of the far left seem to spend every weekend doing, it’s a favourite pastime of Islamist rabble rousers and it’s generally not a vehicle for bringing people together. And Farage is very much one of those. He has no desire to bring people together - everything he says is divisive. Likewise Galloway, Corbyn, all the other blowhards.
The occasional rally to enthuse the base. Fair enough. But large parts of politics on (particularly) the far left but also the far right seem to see it as the acid test of popularity.
Do you think Donald Trump left the country better or worse than when he took office?
Better 48% Worse 47% ——— Do you think Joe Biden has made the country better or worse since taking office?
Better 36% Worse 57%
That’s extraordinary. Seriously half of the USA population are insane .
It is their Brexit moment where they inflict totally unnecessary self-harm on themselves and then spend years regretting it.
Spice will be added because the Yanks are generally armed to the teeth (there being more guns than people in the US)
Whatever happens, we have got The Gatling gun, and they have not
The arms borne by the people do not include automatic rifles let alone military drones and helicopter gunships. A shooting civil war against the Pentagon is not on the cards.
Except, of course, the Supreme Court legalised automatic weapons a few weeks back.
Thought experiment. If Starmer had for some reason had to step down in Dec 2023 and Corbyn or one of his acolytes became leader at the start of this year. Who would win tomorrow?
Wouldn’t have happened - if Starmer had stood down Wes, Yvette or similar would have been elected leader - the Labour membership want power
Where’s the fun in that?
The question is interesting because it reveals it’s not just the Tories being mind bogglingly crap that determines the result.
Do you think Donald Trump left the country better or worse than when he took office?
Better 48% Worse 47% ——— Do you think Joe Biden has made the country better or worse since taking office?
Better 36% Worse 57%
That’s extraordinary. Seriously half of the USA population are insane .
It is their Brexit moment where they inflict totally unnecessary self-harm on themselves and then spend years regretting it.
Spice will be added because the Yanks are generally armed to the teeth (there being more guns than people in the US)
Whatever happens, we have got The Gatling gun, and they have not
The arms borne by the people do not include automatic rifles let alone military drones and helicopter gunships. A shooting civil war against the Pentagon is not on the cards.
Except, of course, the Supreme Court legalised automatic weapons a few weeks back.
Leaflet I got a couple of days ago "Do NOT vote for Wes Streeting". No obvious Party affiliation, but seems to be produced by a certain Glenn Holmes, who, after a bit of Googling, seems to have been a former member of Ilford North CLP.
Is it just be or are the media really complacent about the election result. The polls obviously point one way, but polls have not opened yet. In 2015, 2017 and 2019 we were surprised by the result. Why do we assume we know what’s about to happen this time?
The difference between a 50 or 200 seat Labour majority isn’t interesting to most people
The difference between the Tories on 160 or 50 seats in total is going to be interesting. Because although it’s obvious I doubt most people will be surprised when it appears.
And 160 Tory seats is just 1997 remixed - 50 is popcorn territory
Biden doing a June debate had no benefit UNLESS the Dems' Men In Grey Suits made it a condition of support that he performed OK. He didn't - he left everybody's worries about his candidature hanging out there. A June debate meant enough time to change if things went poorly.
Which is where we are at.
The interesting thing is that Trump's faculties are arguably even more shot than Biden's. At least Biden hasn't publically mulled over death by shark versus electrocution. The best outcome is Dems get a new candidate (Dems Without Dementia!) whilst Trump, having got his Kingly immunity, goes undisputedly as mad as King George III.
Yes.
I think that is the thing that is being missed here.
Can you imagine a sane, able to think on their feet, Democrat against Trump?
Go and look at the Fox News interviews with Pete Buttigieg. He's always willing to go on there, and he's so quick on his feet. Now think about him in a debate vs Trump. It could be carnage the other way.
This is just over simple and reductive. There's a thousand ways of being mentally whacky and the majority don't involve senile dementia. Trump's shark shtick is no madder than he always has been and doesn't look like running away uncontrollably downhill in weeks or months like Biden does. It's true that a competent adult could run rings round him, but it always has been. It's just a false equivalence to say there's nothing to choose between him and Biden.
Both candidates are on a steep mental decline curve: go and watch clips from Trump in 2016, and now watch them. He makes mistakes he never used to make. His voice is often mildly slurred.
With Biden, it's past the point where it can be hidden. But Trump isn't far off either.
Trump has only gotten away with it because he's facing either incredibly softball interviews, or he's debating Joe Biden.
It shows Labour 426 seats, Conservative 116, Liberal Democrat 57, SNP 17, Reform UK 8, Plaid Cymru 4, and Green 3, giving an overall Labour majority of 204.
The forecast uses the current UK-Elect default forecasting settings, using the actual candidate list and taking some account of constituency opinion polls, by-elections since 2019, Brexit referendum leave/remain percentages, incumbency, and tactical voting among many other factors. This forecast combines various methods, including both proportional and UNS elements. The forecast top three in every constituency can be found here: https://www.ukelect.co.uk/20240703ForecastUKFinal/UKTop3Forecast.csv
Be aware that small adjustments to the polling data or methodology can make surprisingly big changes to the result, although never enough to either affect the overall result (a Labour majority of around 190 to 250 seats) or to match some of the most extreme MRP seat projections.
As previously mentioned, some people may also find the UK-Elect links page useful as it contains a lot of links to election related websites: https://www.ukelect.co.uk/HTML/links.html
Leaflet I got a couple of days ago "Do NOT vote for Wes Streeting". No obvious Party affiliation, but seems to be produced by a certain Glenn Holmes, who, after a bit of Googling, seems to have been a former member of Ilford North CLP.
Do you think Donald Trump left the country better or worse than when he took office?
Better 48% Worse 47% ——— Do you think Joe Biden has made the country better or worse since taking office?
Better 36% Worse 57%
That’s extraordinary. Seriously half of the USA population are insane .
It is their Brexit moment where they inflict totally unnecessary self-harm on themselves and then spend years regretting it.
Spice will be added because the Yanks are generally armed to the teeth (there being more guns than people in the US)
Whatever happens, we have got The Gatling gun, and they have not
The arms borne by the people do not include automatic rifles let alone military drones and helicopter gunships. A shooting civil war against the Pentagon is not on the cards.
I'm not sure on that. A shooting war not involving the Pentagon is possible, as is Mr Trump trying to use the armed forces for his own purposes.
AIUI bump stocks - as used in the 2017 Las Vegas slaughter - have just been made legal again. One 64 year old bloke fired 1000+ rounds in 10 minutes, killing 61 and injuring 400+ people directly. He also had 20kg of explosive.*
And there are places where they have all kinds of major weapons around. Plus the police are militarised with cast off army stock.
On October 1, 2017, a mass shooting occurred when 64-year-old Stephen Paddock opened fire on the crowd attending the Route 91 Harvest music festival on the Las Vegas Strip in Nevada from his 32nd-floor suites in the Mandalay Bay hotel. He fired more than 1,000 rounds, killing 60 people[a] and wounding at least 413. The ensuing panic brought the total number of injured to approximately 867. ... Paddock was found to have fired a total of 1,058 rounds from fifteen of the firearms: 1,049 from twelve AR-15-style rifles, eight from two AR-10-style rifles, and the round used to kill himself from the Smith & Wesson revolver.
Do you think Donald Trump left the country better or worse than when he took office?
Better 48% Worse 47% ——— Do you think Joe Biden has made the country better or worse since taking office?
Better 36% Worse 57%
That’s extraordinary. Seriously half of the USA population are insane .
Those numbers are the same for incumbent governments everywhere, and are the consequence of wages not keeping up with inflation. Which is a consequence of the Ukraine war on global commodity prices, and of the Covid demand bounceback.
TLDR: the exit poll and/or the number of projected seats may be wrong. It's best to wait a bit before making conclusive observations and assigning praise/blame.
What the hell is TLDR?
I do hope election night isn’t full of acronyms.
WTF?
IDK
Should there be a site policy banning TLAs?
A pedant notes: neither TLDR, WTF, IDK or TLA are acronyms. They are abbreviations. For it to be an acronym you need to be able to pronounce it. Like 'Nato'.
TLDR is routinely pronounced as something akin to "tildir", at least at my workplace. And the others are initialisms rather than abbreviations...
Best bet so far still Epson &Ewell where I got £45 on at average odds of 10/1
Just laid off all of that on Exchange odds-on at 1.79, so that's a net profit of just under £400 if it comes in now, and I also make a tiny profit on Labour (obvs not going to happen) and break even on the Tories too.
Reform have underperformed in every election over the last 2 years compared to their polling.
Can anyone explain to me why it'd be different just because Nigel Farage turns up in the last 4 weeks?
Shy refukkers seems at least as plausible as shy Tories. Its the first election they have taken seriously. The government have been really, really bad so voters looking for a change but might not be Labour/LD inclined.
Of course they might continue to do worse than their polling but I'd back 3/1 they do better than the polling too.
PB is the forum for a range of Norfolk predictions and so here are the thoughts of Chairman Clutch
1) Norwich South - Clive Lewis may be an idiot but he is their idiot. Safe Lab Hold. 2) Norwich North - Smith was popular but has given up long ago. Certain Lab Gain. 3) Great Yarmouth - Three way bust up with Cons helped by old '9 Jobs' standing down. Narrow Lab Gain with Ref possibly knocking the Cons into third. 4) South Nofolk - The best rural seat for Lab nowadays despite the repulsive Bacon standing down. Looks a Likely Lab Gain. 5) Waveney Valley - Should be nailed on Con but the Greens are launching everything at it. They tried in Norwich South many times without success and I suspect this mountain may be just too high for them too. Narrow Con Hold. 6) Broadland & Fakenham - Prosperous countryside is not safe Con any more - look at Surrey and Oxfordshire. This could be very close and may come down to Reform's share. I give it to the Cons narrowly. 7) Mid Norfolk - Looks the best Con seat. Likely Con Hold. 8) North Norfolk - LDs against a very active but politically cloth-eared MP. LDs originally left it off the target list but moved all in a couple of weeks ago. Suggests it could be close but Baker's hard work will probably get him home narrowly. 9) North West Norfolk - Went Lab in 1997 and there is enough Lab and Reform feeling there to make this a three-way barn-burner. Wild writes a free newspaper column but is otherwise invisible in the seat. The reverse Baker and so this may surprise as in 1997 when a very good and active local Con MP lost to the surprise of everyone, including Lab. Narrow Lab Gain
- and - the big one -
10) It is 99.99% certain that the Cons can never lose South West Norfolk - the poster seat for 'white flight' pensioners in their late 70s and 80s. 99.99% certain - but if anyone can lose the seat then it is surely Liz Truss. You cannot underestimate just how poor a local MP she is and just how uninterested she is in South West Norfolk. Reform and Bagge are taking votes from her left and right. LIb Dems and Greens have run no campaign unlike in 2019. Despite that the donkeys will deliver a gift to Sir Keir Starmer by returning La Truss as a lead weight around the neck of the Con Party for years to come.
So that's told you but be aware that I could well be wrong on them all except the first two. Always remember that all of my predictions are Norfolk 'n' Good!
Exclusive: Leaked messages show Tory campaigners in meltdown over Reform surge
Veteran Tory campaigner tells GBN: "I never had anything like it as a Tory, Reform are sweeping us away.”
Leaked Tory group chat show volunteers panicked about Reform support
Clickbait, but definitely getting interesting now. I won't say expecting, but I've been hoping for some signs of a Reform take off.
Are Putingate and racistgate really depressing the Reform vote, or just the Reform polling share? They are not the same thing. Can the massive show of public support for Reform really be a few cranks - they are finding a lot of cranks if so. Are pollsters paying too much attention to past voting behaviour? Are voters really petrified of a 'Labour supermajority' or do they not care, and are taking the opportunity to vote with their heart? As ever, Reform's performance is a riddle.
My gut says enough people are angry enough at the Tories, or intrigued enough by Reform, to be at the upper end of expectations this time. At the least there has not been a total collapse in polling, so even an underperformance on the day would still suggest sizable voteshare.
Guido had an article earlier about how well Reform are doing on social media:
If Reform overperform it could be due to people who will don't always vote as happened in the Brexit referendum (although some of these people may not have ID)
That's the biggest threat to Reform - the id thing.
Hard to get the IDs out to the bots in time? I think they'll poll 20% anyway
The latest polling for the French Assembly is moving away from a majority being on the cards at all for RN, even if they somehow allied with LR. The ‘front républicain’ not dead yet.
I have no idea who could possibly govern out of that, or who would want to. Attal may be able to stay on by default as some sort of zombie minority government as both NFP and RN look instead to the presidential election.
If Starmer had been leader in 2017 he would not have squandered the gold plated opportunity that May’s terrible campaign presented Labour with. Instead we got another 7 years of Tory thanks to your idiot.
Yeah mate of course he would have bettered the biggest swing to LAB since WW2 achieved despite your idiots best efforts
Stop lying, it wasn't the biggest swing to Labour since WW2.
Corbyn getting utterly spanked by the Labour candidate would almost beat a Portillo moment for Jenrick. If I can't have both, either will do.
Stephen Flynn, JRM, Braverman, Cates. Badenoch, Jenrick, Corbyn all losing would be high points.
The Labour candidate is about 2/5 and Jenrick about 5/2 in Newark.
It's looking like clean sweep East Midlands ie N2D2.
Whilst there is clearly still a division between pollsters on the exact level of carnage, lets all be clear on what unites them - the Tories are getting demolished tomorrow. Their best case scenario appears to be getting beat slightly worse than they did in 1997, which took them nearly 2 decades to recover from.
And the worst case? Well...
So many people have said that the ReFUKers are going to come home to the Tories. No, they are not. They are in it to win it (conservatism). Farage BFFing Putin dampened their stretch, it didn't damage their core vote.
With fUKers getting in the Tories way in seat after seat, they will only accelerate the fall of seats.
13 years is a way short of two decades… Expect nothing less from a Lib Dem! In all seriousness best of luck tomorrow.
This is true. So you should have replied on that post. If you continue this dreadful sloppiness we may have to see if we can get you a job in CCHQ (which is, of course, an FLA)
What Eve Of Poll polls so we have left @wooliedyed ?
Well, I make it Possibly Norstat? Although they look unlikely now Survation final call after 9 and possibly an mrp update if figures require it More in Common should have a final headline VI to release Ipsos tomorrow
That's that I believe unless YG have a final headline poll
Comments
The thing about a rally is it’s exclusive by design. You are talking to your true believers, telling them what they want to hear. Quite often inciting them to fear or loathe the other side. It’s what Trump does, and American politicians of all sides for that matter, it’s what Corbyn and most of the far left seem to spend every weekend doing, it’s a favourite pastime of Islamist rabble rousers and it’s generally not a vehicle for bringing people together. And Farage is very much one of those. He has no desire to bring people together - everything he says is divisive. Likewise Galloway, Corbyn, all the other blowhards.
The occasional rally to enthuse the base. Fair enough. But large parts of politics on (particularly) the far left but also the far right seem to see it as the acid test of popularity.
Jesus
Guns
Babies
NEW THREAD
The question is interesting because it reveals it’s not just the Tories being mind bogglingly crap that determines the result.
And 160 Tory seats is just 1997 remixed - 50 is popcorn territory
With Biden, it's past the point where it can be hidden. But Trump isn't far off either.
Trump has only gotten away with it because he's facing either incredibly softball interviews, or he's debating Joe Biden.
It shows Labour 426 seats, Conservative 116, Liberal Democrat 57, SNP 17, Reform UK 8, Plaid Cymru 4, and Green 3, giving an overall Labour majority of 204.
The forecast uses the current UK-Elect default forecasting settings, using the actual candidate list and taking some account of constituency opinion polls, by-elections since 2019, Brexit referendum leave/remain percentages, incumbency, and tactical voting among many other factors. This forecast combines various methods, including both proportional and UNS elements. The forecast top three in every constituency can be found here: https://www.ukelect.co.uk/20240703ForecastUKFinal/UKTop3Forecast.csv
Be aware that small adjustments to the polling data or methodology can make surprisingly big changes to the result, although never enough to either affect the overall result (a Labour majority of around 190 to 250 seats) or to match some of the most extreme MRP seat projections.
As previously mentioned, some people may also find the UK-Elect links page useful as it contains a lot of links to election related websites: https://www.ukelect.co.uk/HTML/links.html
AIUI bump stocks - as used in the 2017 Las Vegas slaughter - have just been made legal again. One 64 year old bloke fired 1000+ rounds in 10 minutes, killing 61 and injuring 400+ people directly. He also had 20kg of explosive.*
And there are places where they have all kinds of major weapons around. Plus the police are militarised with cast off army stock.
On October 1, 2017, a mass shooting occurred when 64-year-old Stephen Paddock opened fire on the crowd attending the Route 91 Harvest music festival on the Las Vegas Strip in Nevada from his 32nd-floor suites in the Mandalay Bay hotel. He fired more than 1,000 rounds, killing 60 people[a] and wounding at least 413. The ensuing panic brought the total number of injured to approximately 867.
...
Paddock was found to have fired a total of 1,058 rounds from fifteen of the firearms: 1,049 from twelve AR-15-style rifles, eight from two AR-10-style rifles, and the round used to kill himself from the Smith & Wesson revolver.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Las_Vegas_shooting
600 people knocking up tomorrow. I don't have much to compare it to, but surely that's loads?
Just laid off all of that on Exchange odds-on at 1.79, so that's a net profit of just under £400 if it comes in now, and I also make a tiny profit on Labour (obvs not going to happen) and break even on the Tories too.
1) Norwich South - Clive Lewis may be an idiot but he is their idiot. Safe Lab Hold.
2) Norwich North - Smith was popular but has given up long ago. Certain Lab Gain.
3) Great Yarmouth - Three way bust up with Cons helped by old '9 Jobs' standing down. Narrow Lab Gain with Ref possibly knocking the Cons into third.
4) South Nofolk - The best rural seat for Lab nowadays despite the repulsive Bacon standing down. Looks a Likely Lab Gain.
5) Waveney Valley - Should be nailed on Con but the Greens are launching everything at it. They tried in Norwich South many times without success and I suspect this mountain may be just too high for them too. Narrow Con Hold.
6) Broadland & Fakenham - Prosperous countryside is not safe Con any more - look at Surrey and Oxfordshire. This could be very close and may come down to Reform's share. I give it to the Cons narrowly.
7) Mid Norfolk - Looks the best Con seat. Likely Con Hold.
8) North Norfolk - LDs against a very active but politically cloth-eared MP. LDs originally left it off the target list but moved all in a couple of weeks ago. Suggests it could be close but Baker's hard work will probably get him home narrowly.
9) North West Norfolk - Went Lab in 1997 and there is enough Lab and Reform feeling there to make this a three-way barn-burner. Wild writes a free newspaper column but is otherwise invisible in the seat. The reverse Baker and so this may surprise as in 1997 when a very good and active local Con MP lost to the surprise of everyone, including Lab. Narrow Lab Gain
- and - the big one -
10) It is 99.99% certain that the Cons can never lose South West Norfolk - the poster seat for 'white flight' pensioners in their late 70s and 80s. 99.99% certain - but if anyone can lose the seat then it is surely Liz Truss. You cannot underestimate just how poor a local MP she is and just how uninterested she is in South West Norfolk. Reform and Bagge are taking votes from her left and right. LIb Dems and Greens have run no campaign unlike in 2019. Despite that the donkeys will deliver a gift to Sir Keir Starmer by returning La Truss as a lead weight around the neck of the Con Party for years to come.
So that's told you but be aware that I could well be wrong on them all except the first two. Always remember that all of my predictions are Norfolk 'n' Good!
(the question is, of course, whether it'll actually do much to help...)
https://www.rtl.fr/actu/politique/info-rtl-sondage-legislatives-2024-le-rassemblement-national-en-tete-mais-sans-majorite-absolue-7900400562
RN: 190-220
NFP: 159-183
Ensemble: 110-135
LR: 30-50
I have no idea who could possibly govern out of that, or who would want to. Attal may be able to stay on by default as some sort of zombie minority government as both NFP and RN look instead to the presidential election.
It's looking like clean sweep East Midlands ie N2D2.
In all seriousness best of luck tomorrow.