The Tory campaign hasn't been bad, just non-existent.
Rain, D-Day, putting a cartoon hat and moustache on Ange - yes, it's been bad.
Being too frit to take on Farage probably their biggest mistake. He didn't need treating with kid gloves, he needed punching in the face with a chain mail fist.
They will lose more MPs from that than any other single issue IMHO.
President Biden spoke with Senator Chuck Schumer, the majority leader, on Wednesday morning for the first time since the president’s disastrous debate performance against former President Donald J. Trump last week, according to two people briefed on the matter.
It was unclear what was said between the two men
NY Times
Hopefully Schumer told him to go and tend his garden.
Imagine the faces in the audience and the meltdown here if the exit poll is read out at 10pm as "Conservatives 30 Majority".....
More likely* is an exit poll of "Labour majority of 26" which then gets whittled down to NOM as Tories win a string of very close seats.
*still not very likely!
Might be worth the current 16-1 on Ladbrokes
For the 16-1 to be attractive requires at least three things:
1. Labour supporters in the South don't vote tactically for the LibDems. Quite possible, albeit I suspect not particularly likely. 2. Reform to underperform, particularly in the South, with their vote going disproportionately back to the Conservatives. Also quite possible. But that's not really consistent with Reform polling 14%+. 3. Labour to hit only the low-point of their polling. Yep, perfectly possible.
But here's the thing. Even if all of these happen, the Conservatives are still likely to suffer an equivalent result to 2005, where the Labour Party was only a few percent ahead of the Conservatives and where they managed an 80 seat majority.
Sounds like Biden is done. Only question left are whether they go with Kamala, which realistically means she becomes president now for the benefit of incumbency. Or a West Wing open convention. Pretty obvs what we all want here!
All the many many people who scoffed and chortled at my “Biden is senile” remarks, or who accused me of using trumpite talking points, can now grovel apologetically and pour sour ashes over their heads and make vast contributions to my favourite charity - the Make Leon Rich Society - as the President is about to resign on the grounds of senility
And then you might profitably ask yourself how you keep getting these things wrong as I get them right
I can't remember whether I chortled and scoffed at your line on Biden, but I was sure he would be the nominee and the age thing could be dealt with.
Then Biden did an early debate to deal with the age thing...
Biden was obviously nowhere near as sharp as he used to be. Other than the State of the Union address — which I didn't think was great at all, merely okay — he hadn't really done any other recent live and unprompted speech or debate of a similar length. It couldn't have gone much worse for him. If Biden was up against anyone but Trump the Democrats would be looking at a thrashing like in 1984. That they still might be able to get out of this mess is down to Trump being repellent to any sensible person.
@DeltapollUK 🚨Final Call Voting Intention🚨 Labour lead by 17 points in our final call poll. Con 22% (+1) Lab 39% (-3) Lib Dem 10% (-1) Reform 17% (+1) SNP 2% (-1) Green 7% (+3) Other 3%(-) Fieldwork: 29th June to 3rd July 2024 Sample: 1,737 GB adults (Change from 27th to 29th June 2024)
The Tory campaign has been a disaster from start to finsh, but I am actually trying to think when was the last good one. 2015. 2010 wasn't great for the Tories either.
2019 - Say what you like about Boris and Cummings but they knew how to deploy an effective campaign.
And the lesson is never let either of those fuckers anywhere near another campaign...
They won the Brexit vote, which BoZo didn't want, and fucked everything up from there
They won the election, and had zero clue what to do next
Intelligent people are generally good at working out what is wrong, and knowing how to destroy it.
Building something better in its place requires more than straightforward intelligence.
The Tory campaign has been a disaster from start to finsh, but I am actually trying to think when was the last good one. 2015. 2010 wasn't great for the Tories either.
The Tories ran a brilliant, below the radar campaign in 2015. They targeted expertly.
The problem with 2015 (and it was a problem with all the Cameron/Osborne campaigns and eventually caught up with them in referendum) is that it was all negative, negative, negative.
Granted it just about worked and they pulled out the first Con majority for 23 years but maybe if they'd been a bit more positive the result would have been even better?
The un-discussed issue with the 2015 Conservative campaign was that it was Con vs LibDem, not Con vs Lab. That may come back to bite the Tories. So far it hasn’t. If, and it’s still a big if, Ed Davey takes the role of LOTO then Cameron can reflect on karma.
Sounds like Biden is done. Only question left are whether they go with Kamala, which realistically means she becomes president now for the benefit of incumbency. Or a West Wing open convention. Pretty obvs what we all want here!
All the many many people who scoffed and chortled at my “Biden is senile” remarks, or who accused me of using trumpite talking points, can now grovel apologetically and pour sour ashes over their heads and make vast contributions to my favourite charity - the Make Leon Rich Society - as the President is about to resign on the grounds of senility
And then you might profitably ask yourself how you keep getting these things wrong as I get them right
Plenty of people on here said he was senile.
Seriously, watching you strut around like a peacock with a superiority complex is like observing a parade of one. Your undisputed talent is to make every conversation, no matter how unrelated, about yourself. You're like a human black hole of dialogue, sucking in all attention and leaving nothing but the cold, empty vacuum of your self-importance. Your arrogance has made your UFO shite self-fulfilling - who the fuck needs the Earth's gravity when your ego sucks in alien craft from Andromeda.
Imagine the faces in the audience and the meltdown here if the exit poll is read out at 10pm as "Conservatives 30 Majority".....
We've all been following your advice and that of MexicanPete and have put a money on a small Tory majoritu. Nailed on.
Then you stand a very small chance of winning a wodge and being subject to a gambling commission enquiry and a very large chance of enhancing bookies profits and not being subject to a gambling commission enquiry.
Personally I'm wondering whether to put between £5 and £20 on NOM at 16-1 but will probably be frit.
Don’t. Take the far more generous odds on BX. You are a Laddies monomaniac!
Sounds like Biden is done. Only question left are whether they go with Kamala, which realistically means she becomes president now for the benefit of incumbency. Or a West Wing open convention. Pretty obvs what we all want here!
All the many many people who scoffed and chortled at my “Biden is senile” remarks, or who accused me of using trumpite talking points, can now grovel apologetically and pour sour ashes over their heads and make vast contributions to my favourite charity - the Make Leon Rich Society - as the President is about to resign on the grounds of senility
And then you might profitably ask yourself how you keep getting these things wrong as I get them right
Plenty of people on here said he was senile.
Seriously, watching you strut around like a peacock with a superiority complex is like observing a parade of one. Your undisputed talent is to make every conversation, no matter how unrelated, about yourself. You're like a human black hole of dialogue, sucking in all attention and leaving nothing but the cold, empty vacuum of your self-importance. Your arrogance has made your UFO shite self-fulfilling - who the fuck needs the Earth's gravity when your ego sucks in alien craft from Andromeda.
That took you an hour to write, didn't it?
Here's Rochdale Pioneers from February of this year:
"I read @Leon raving on about Biden having dementia...."
Apparently I was raving on. Rave on, Leon, Rave on
Making it your core idea and then not delivering is not a great idea. Maybe they thought the delays and problems would stir people up against Labour somehow?
It will stir up against Labour once they are in office. There is no Plan B. Starmer better pray for some shit weather in the Channel for the next three months. If the migrants start arriving in record numbers - and the snakeheads are going to push the issue to see how many they can expect to get across in the next months and years - any honeymoon period is going to be met with an early divorce.
Corrected entry scuppered by new fred. Here it is again. Apols for my general incompetence. Thanks for running the comp!
General Election Competition
In how many seats will: 1. Reform beat Conservative (don't count draws)? 51 2. Labour finish 3rd or lower (don't count where they didn't stand)? 78 3. Conservatives lose their deposit? 25 4. Lib Dems lose their deposit? 303 5. Reform lose their deposit? 242 6. Labour lose their deposit? 0
How big: 7. Will the largest winning vote margin be? 33699 8. Will the biggest notional majority defeated be (only count where the incumbent party stands)? 27,210
How small: 9. Will the smallest winning vote margin be (1st - 2nd)? 56 10. Will the smallest gap between 1st and 3rd be? 1125 11. Will the lowest number of votes for any candidate? 11
How many: 12. Parties will be elected (whether or not they take their seats. All true independents are grouped as a single party)? 12 13. Seats will the Conservatives win? 98 14. Seats will Labour win? 415 15. Seats will Lib Dems win? 42 16. Seats will the SNP win? 31 17. Seats will Sinn Fein win? 7 18. Seats will DUP win? 6 19. Seats will Reform come second in? 75
What percentage vote: 20. Will Conservatives get across the UK? 22.3% 21. Will Reform get across the UK? 15.7% 22. Will SNP get in Scotland? 37.3% 23. Will be lowest of any winning candidate? 29.5% 24. Will be highest of any 2nd place candidate? 45.1% 25. Will Speaker get? 78.9%
Imagine the faces in the audience and the meltdown here if the exit poll is read out at 10pm as "Conservatives 30 Majority".....
More likely* is an exit poll of "Labour majority of 26" which then gets whittled down to NOM as Tories win a string of very close seats.
*still not very likely!
Might be worth the current 16-1 on Ladbrokes
For the 16-1 to be attractive requires at least three things:
1. Labour supporters in the South don't vote tactically for the LibDems. Quite possible, albeit I suspect not particularly likely. 2. Reform to underperform, particularly in the South, with their vote going disproportionately back to the Conservatives. Also quite possible. But that's not really consistent with Reform polling 14%+. 3. Labour to hit only the low-point of their polling. Yep, perfectly possible.
But here's the thing. Even if all of these happen, the Conservatives are still likely to suffer an equivalent result to 2005, where the Labour Party was only a few percent ahead of the Conservatives and where they managed an 80 seat majority.
It’s not ever going to be attractive when you can get much better odds elsewhere.
Some critical commentary from YouGov’s latest MRP:
While there is a general expectation across pollsters and analysts that swing will indeed be proportional this time around – that being different to the vast majority of British elections, in which it tends to be uniform – the extent of that proportionality can be the difference between a scenario in which the Conservatives on around 22% of the vote could drop as low as 60 seats or reach as high as 140 seats.
The Conservative vote share at the 2019 general election was roughly 44%. We estimate that the Conservatives will win 22% of the vote share tomorrow. This would be a literal halving of the party’s support since the last election.
We estimate that the proportionality of the swing will be approaching 1:1 proportionality, but will stop short of a situation where, for example, the Conservatives are on 50% on the vote in 2019 and end up on 25% tomorrow. We would anticipate that value to be around 26% or 27%.
If the swing is more proportional than we estimate, then the Conservatives will end up with fewer seats. If the swing is less proportional than we estimate, then the Conservatives will lose less. With no historical markers or comparators for us to benchmark this coming election against, it is very difficult to tell exactly which way this relationship will fall. This, plus the usual caveats around polling regarding statistical uncertainty and margins of error, serve as a reminder to set expectations wide as to exactly what sort of election result we may see come July 5th.
Interesting! Is there an English translation available?
Literally no-one wanted to hear from Gordon Brown at this juncture. 😊
Actually I did. I respect him and so does my Surrey tory friend. She thinks he talks a lot of sense.
What he posted was absolutely spot on.
So I’ll cut and paste it just to annoy you. But also because this is precisely why you are about to take one hell of a beating. You became the Nasty Party Redux.
'As the Tories pander to the prejudices and hard-right agenda of Nigel Farage and his supporters, it’s become clear that what’s at stake in this election is nothing less than what it means to be British.
Britain has always been defined by three basic truths. First, fairness: a belief that we’re not just self-seeking individuals with no obligation to others - just look at the pride we take in the NHS. But this sense of decency has been torn apart by Tory vindictiveness.
The idea that social security should take the shame out of need has been eroded. Now families are forced to depend on food banks instead of the welfare state to avoid hunger and destitution. I’ve never seen poor people so humiliated and stigmatised.
Then there’s civil liberties and the rule of law. We’ve seen these most British of values repeatedly undermined – from the proroguing of Parliament to legislation ignoring international law to attacks on the ECHR which was created by Churchill and his colleagues.
Finally, the far right claims Britain does best when we stand apart from other nations. But Britain is at its best when it sees the Channel not as a moat but as a bridge, when we are outward-looking and lead - as we did in last century’s fight against fascism.
This election we can reject the Farage and Tory version of Britain and get our real country back. We can return to the British values of decency, respect for the law and openness.
With a world in flames, it’s never been more vital to defend and vote for these principles.'
An interesting feature of many of the recent MRPs is the way they've been showing the Tories surprisingly close to winning in Ynys Môn despite defending a majority of only 1,968 (5.4%).
Imagine the faces in the audience and the meltdown here if the exit poll is read out at 10pm as "Conservatives 30 Majority".....
More likely* is an exit poll of "Labour majority of 26" which then gets whittled down to NOM as Tories win a string of very close seats.
*still not very likely!
Might be worth the current 16-1 on Ladbrokes
For the 16-1 to be attractive requires at least three things:
1. Labour supporters in the South don't vote tactically for the LibDems. Quite possible, albeit I suspect not particularly likely. 2. Reform to underperform, particularly in the South, with their vote going disproportionately back to the Conservatives. Also quite possible. But that's not really consistent with Reform polling 14%+. 3. Labour to hit only the low-point of their polling. Yep, perfectly possible.
But here's the thing. Even if all of these happen, the Conservatives are still likely to suffer an equivalent result to 2005, where the Labour Party was only a few percent ahead of the Conservatives and where they managed an 80 seat majority.
And that despite all the received wisdom that boundary changes protected the Tories.
Recall, this is after at least a YEAR of evidence - some of it brazen and blatant - that Biden was going gaga. Even by mid June the very dumbest of PB-ers - eg @Anabobazina - were trying to discount it and ignore it
Not unrelatedly, @Anabobazina was possibly the last PBer to defend the Wet Market Hypothesis
There really is a weird mental phenomenon at work here, where educated (but not very intelligent) people will deliberately believe insane things if the alternative makes them uncomfortable. It is the cerebration of toddlers. The mentality of the impaired
@DeltapollUK 🚨Final Call Voting Intention🚨 Labour lead by 17 points in our final call poll. Con 22% (+1) Lab 39% (-3) Lib Dem 10% (-1) Reform 17% (+1) SNP 2% (-1) Green 7% (+3) Other 3%(-) Fieldwork: 29th June to 3rd July 2024 Sample: 1,737 GB adults (Change from 27th to 29th June 2024)
Sounds like Biden is done. Only question left are whether they go with Kamala, which realistically means she becomes president now for the benefit of incumbency. Or a West Wing open convention. Pretty obvs what we all want here!
All the many many people who scoffed and chortled at my “Biden is senile” remarks, or who accused me of using trumpite talking points, can now grovel apologetically and pour sour ashes over their heads and make vast contributions to my favourite charity - the Make Leon Rich Society - as the President is about to resign on the grounds of senility
And then you might profitably ask yourself how you keep getting these things wrong as I get them right
Plenty of people on here said he was senile.
Seriously, watching you strut around like a peacock with a superiority complex is like observing a parade of one. Your undisputed talent is to make every conversation, no matter how unrelated, about yourself. You're like a human black hole of dialogue, sucking in all attention and leaving nothing but the cold, empty vacuum of your self-importance. Your arrogance has made your UFO shite self-fulfilling - who the fuck needs the Earth's gravity when your ego sucks in alien craft from Andromeda.
That took you an hour to write, didn't it?
Here's Rochdale Pioneers from February of this year:
"I read @Leon raving on about Biden having dementia...."
Apparently I was raving on. Rave on, Leon, Rave on
It is of course possible that if you didn’t rant and rave about everything people might take notice when you get one thing in a million right.
Some critical commentary from YouGov’s latest MRP:
While there is a general expectation across pollsters and analysts that swing will indeed be proportional this time around – that being different to the vast majority of British elections, in which it tends to be uniform – the extent of that proportionality can be the difference between a scenario in which the Conservatives on around 22% of the vote could drop as low as 60 seats or reach as high as 140 seats.
The Conservative vote share at the 2019 general election was roughly 44%. We estimate that the Conservatives will win 22% of the vote share tomorrow. This would be a literal halving of the party’s support since the last election.
We estimate that the proportionality of the swing will be approaching 1:1 proportionality, but will stop short of a situation where, for example, the Conservatives are on 50% on the vote in 2019 and end up on 25% tomorrow. We would anticipate that value to be around 26% or 27%.
If the swing is more proportional than we estimate, then the Conservatives will end up with fewer seats. If the swing is less proportional than we estimate, then the Conservatives will lose less. With no historical markers or comparators for us to benchmark this coming election against, it is very difficult to tell exactly which way this relationship will fall. This, plus the usual caveats around polling regarding statistical uncertainty and margins of error, serve as a reminder to set expectations wide as to exactly what sort of election result we may see come July 5th.
Interesting! Is there an English translation available?
It's purely about how they run the model to produce the forecast. The Tories are being modelled to lose more votes in places where they won more votes last time. This is a more punitive modelling choice than the usual pattern, where the number of votes you won isn't connected to the swing against you.
Some critical commentary from YouGov’s latest MRP:
While there is a general expectation across pollsters and analysts that swing will indeed be proportional this time around – that being different to the vast majority of British elections, in which it tends to be uniform – the extent of that proportionality can be the difference between a scenario in which the Conservatives on around 22% of the vote could drop as low as 60 seats or reach as high as 140 seats.
The Conservative vote share at the 2019 general election was roughly 44%. We estimate that the Conservatives will win 22% of the vote share tomorrow. This would be a literal halving of the party’s support since the last election.
We estimate that the proportionality of the swing will be approaching 1:1 proportionality, but will stop short of a situation where, for example, the Conservatives are on 50% on the vote in 2019 and end up on 25% tomorrow. We would anticipate that value to be around 26% or 27%.
If the swing is more proportional than we estimate, then the Conservatives will end up with fewer seats. If the swing is less proportional than we estimate, then the Conservatives will lose less. With no historical markers or comparators for us to benchmark this coming election against, it is very difficult to tell exactly which way this relationship will fall. This, plus the usual caveats around polling regarding statistical uncertainty and margins of error, serve as a reminder to set expectations wide as to exactly what sort of election result we may see come July 5th.
Interesting! Is there an English translation available?
TLDR: Despite the misleading specificity of our forecasts, the potential error in our methodology means that the Tories could land anything from total disaster through to a rather large flesh wound.
Don't think I've ever seen anything as preposterous as Betfair implying Gavin Newsom or Michelle Obama have a bigger combined chance than Biden of winning the election
TLDR: the exit poll and/or the number of projected seats may be wrong. It's best to wait a bit before making conclusive observations and assigning praise/blame.
Sounds like Biden is done. Only question left are whether they go with Kamala, which realistically means she becomes president now for the benefit of incumbency. Or a West Wing open convention. Pretty obvs what we all want here!
All the many many people who scoffed and chortled at my “Biden is senile” remarks, or who accused me of using trumpite talking points, can now grovel apologetically and pour sour ashes over their heads and make vast contributions to my favourite charity - the Make Leon Rich Society - as the President is about to resign on the grounds of senility
And then you might profitably ask yourself how you keep getting these things wrong as I get them right
Plenty of people on here said he was senile.
Seriously, watching you strut around like a peacock with a superiority complex is like observing a parade of one. Your undisputed talent is to make every conversation, no matter how unrelated, about yourself. You're like a human black hole of dialogue, sucking in all attention and leaving nothing but the cold, empty vacuum of your self-importance. Your arrogance has made your UFO shite self-fulfilling - who the fuck needs the Earth's gravity when your ego sucks in alien craft from Andromeda.
That took you an hour to write, didn't it?
Here's Rochdale Pioneers from February of this year:
"I read @Leon raving on about Biden having dementia...."
Apparently I was raving on. Rave on, Leon, Rave on
It is of course possible that if you didn’t rant and rave about everything people might take notice when you get one thing in a million right.
Go back to your constituences and prepare your thermoses!
TLDR: the exit poll and/or the number of projected seats may be wrong. It's best to wait a bit before making conclusive observations and assigning praise/blame.
Sounds like Biden is done. Only question left are whether they go with Kamala, which realistically means she becomes president now for the benefit of incumbency. Or a West Wing open convention. Pretty obvs what we all want here!
All the many many people who scoffed and chortled at my “Biden is senile” remarks, or who accused me of using trumpite talking points, can now grovel apologetically and pour sour ashes over their heads and make vast contributions to my favourite charity - the Make Leon Rich Society - as the President is about to resign on the grounds of senility
And then you might profitably ask yourself how you keep getting these things wrong as I get them right
Plenty of people on here said he was senile.
Seriously, watching you strut around like a peacock with a superiority complex is like observing a parade of one. Your undisputed talent is to make every conversation, no matter how unrelated, about yourself. You're like a human black hole of dialogue, sucking in all attention and leaving nothing but the cold, empty vacuum of your self-importance. Your arrogance has made your UFO shite self-fulfilling - who the fuck needs the Earth's gravity when your ego sucks in alien craft from Andromeda.
That took you an hour to write, didn't it?
Here's Rochdale Pioneers from February of this year:
"I read @Leon raving on about Biden having dementia...."
Apparently I was raving on. Rave on, Leon, Rave on
‘Raving on’ about things that are either so entirely obvious to most of us that we simply scroll on by, or are so patently loopy that we simply scroll on by, isn’t doing you any favours tbh.
TLDR: the exit poll and/or the number of projected seats may be wrong. It's best to wait a bit before making conclusive observations and assigning praise/blame.
Sounds like Biden is done. Only question left are whether they go with Kamala, which realistically means she becomes president now for the benefit of incumbency. Or a West Wing open convention. Pretty obvs what we all want here!
All the many many people who scoffed and chortled at my “Biden is senile” remarks, or who accused me of using trumpite talking points, can now grovel apologetically and pour sour ashes over their heads and make vast contributions to my favourite charity - the Make Leon Rich Society - as the President is about to resign on the grounds of senility
And then you might profitably ask yourself how you keep getting these things wrong as I get them right
Plenty of people on here said he was senile.
Seriously, watching you strut around like a peacock with a superiority complex is like observing a parade of one. Your undisputed talent is to make every conversation, no matter how unrelated, about yourself. You're like a human black hole of dialogue, sucking in all attention and leaving nothing but the cold, empty vacuum of your self-importance. Your arrogance has made your UFO shite self-fulfilling - who the fuck needs the Earth's gravity when your ego sucks in alien craft from Andromeda.
That took you an hour to write, didn't it?
Here's Rochdale Pioneers from February of this year:
"I read @Leon raving on about Biden having dementia...."
Apparently I was raving on. Rave on, Leon, Rave on
‘Raving on’ about things that are either so entirely obvious to most of us that we simply scroll on by, or are so patently loopy that we simply scroll on by, isn’t doing you any favours tbh.
I don’t think he’s capable of listening to advice any more.
He’s reminding me of a cross between Joey Barton and Russell Brand
Biden doing a June debate had no benefit UNLESS the Dems' Men In Grey Suits made it a condition of support that he performed OK. He didn't - he left everybody's worries about his candidature hanging out there. A June debate meant enough time to change if things went poorly.
Which is where we are at.
The interesting thing is that Trump's faculties are arguably even more shot than Biden's. At least Biden hasn't publically mulled over death by shark versus electrocution. The best outcome is Dems get a new candidate (Dems Without Dementia!) whilst Trump, having got his Kingly immunity, goes undisputedly as mad as King George III.
I’m seeing lots of FBPE people saying that Starmer has lost their vote over his EU comments. Could make the difference for the Lib Dems in a few seats.
Imagine the faces in the audience and the meltdown here if the exit poll is read out at 10pm as "Conservatives 30 Majority".....
We've all been following your advice and that of MexicanPete and have put a money on a small Tory majoritu. Nailed on.
Then you stand a very small chance of winning a wodge and being subject to a gambling commission enquiry and a very large chance of enhancing bookies profits and not being subject to a gambling commission enquiry.
Personally I'm wondering whether to put between £5 and £20 on NOM at 16-1 but will probably be frit.
Don’t. Take the far more generous odds on BX. You are a Laddies monomaniac!
Betfred are offering 20-1 and a minutes walk from work for a cash bet
An interesting feature of many of the recent MRPs is the way they've been showing the Tories surprisingly close to winning in Ynys Môn despite defending a majority of only 1,968 (5.4%).
Some critical commentary from YouGov’s latest MRP:
While there is a general expectation across pollsters and analysts that swing will indeed be proportional this time around – that being different to the vast majority of British elections, in which it tends to be uniform – the extent of that proportionality can be the difference between a scenario in which the Conservatives on around 22% of the vote could drop as low as 60 seats or reach as high as 140 seats.
The Conservative vote share at the 2019 general election was roughly 44%. We estimate that the Conservatives will win 22% of the vote share tomorrow. This would be a literal halving of the party’s support since the last election.
We estimate that the proportionality of the swing will be approaching 1:1 proportionality, but will stop short of a situation where, for example, the Conservatives are on 50% on the vote in 2019 and end up on 25% tomorrow. We would anticipate that value to be around 26% or 27%.
If the swing is more proportional than we estimate, then the Conservatives will end up with fewer seats. If the swing is less proportional than we estimate, then the Conservatives will lose less. With no historical markers or comparators for us to benchmark this coming election against, it is very difficult to tell exactly which way this relationship will fall. This, plus the usual caveats around polling regarding statistical uncertainty and margins of error, serve as a reminder to set expectations wide as to exactly what sort of election result we may see come July 5th.
Interesting! Is there an English translation available?
TLDR: Despite the misleading specificity of our forecasts, the potential error in our methodology means that the Tories could land anything from total disaster through to a rather large flesh wound.
And that’s the most remarkable thing about this election, the Tory party could end up with 160 seats or 32 and anyone who can tell you what is a actually going to happen is deluding themselves
I mean granted the end result has been obvious for months but size of the result and the consequences are totally unknown
TLDR: the exit poll and/or the number of projected seats may be wrong. It's best to wait a bit before making conclusive observations and assigning praise/blame.
What the hell is TLDR?
I do hope election night isn’t full of acronyms.
It's internet jargon not election jargon
Too Long Didn't Read
Usually denoting someone has read it, and are summarising it in more concise fashion.
This is why results from individual ballot boxes can't be published.
"What happens at the count? ........................................................................... Ballot papers from a ballot box are mixed with those from at least one other, including postal votes, to help preserve the secrecy of the vote. Votes are then sorted by candidate. Ballots for each candidate are placed in bundles and their number checked by more than one counting assistant. Ballots should be kept face up at all times. This prevents anyone seeing the ballot paper number and ensures the count is transparent for agents and observers."
Some critical commentary from YouGov’s latest MRP:
While there is a general expectation across pollsters and analysts that swing will indeed be proportional this time around – that being different to the vast majority of British elections, in which it tends to be uniform – the extent of that proportionality can be the difference between a scenario in which the Conservatives on around 22% of the vote could drop as low as 60 seats or reach as high as 140 seats.
The Conservative vote share at the 2019 general election was roughly 44%. We estimate that the Conservatives will win 22% of the vote share tomorrow. This would be a literal halving of the party’s support since the last election.
We estimate that the proportionality of the swing will be approaching 1:1 proportionality, but will stop short of a situation where, for example, the Conservatives are on 50% on the vote in 2019 and end up on 25% tomorrow. We would anticipate that value to be around 26% or 27%.
If the swing is more proportional than we estimate, then the Conservatives will end up with fewer seats. If the swing is less proportional than we estimate, then the Conservatives will lose less. With no historical markers or comparators for us to benchmark this coming election against, it is very difficult to tell exactly which way this relationship will fall. This, plus the usual caveats around polling regarding statistical uncertainty and margins of error, serve as a reminder to set expectations wide as to exactly what sort of election result we may see come July 5th.
Interesting! Is there an English translation available?
"The number of seats deduced from a MRP depends on whether a uniform or proportional swing is used. But we don't know which one is true. Fun, isn't it? (presses button at random)"
TLDR: the exit poll and/or the number of projected seats may be wrong. It's best to wait a bit before making conclusive observations and assigning praise/blame.
I’m seeing lots of FBPE people saying that Starmer has lost their vote over his EU comments. Could make the difference for the Lib Dems in a few seats.
Another one. Argh. Can you remind me what FBPE stands for please?
Sounds like Biden is done. Only question left are whether they go with Kamala, which realistically means she becomes president now for the benefit of incumbency. Or a West Wing open convention. Pretty obvs what we all want here!
All the many many people who scoffed and chortled at my “Biden is senile” remarks, or who accused me of using trumpite talking points, can now grovel apologetically and pour sour ashes over their heads and make vast contributions to my favourite charity - the Make Leon Rich Society - as the President is about to resign on the grounds of senility
And then you might profitably ask yourself how you keep getting these things wrong as I get them right
Plenty of people on here said he was senile.
Seriously, watching you strut around like a peacock with a superiority complex is like observing a parade of one. Your undisputed talent is to make every conversation, no matter how unrelated, about yourself. You're like a human black hole of dialogue, sucking in all attention and leaving nothing but the cold, empty vacuum of your self-importance. Your arrogance has made your UFO shite self-fulfilling - who the fuck needs the Earth's gravity when your ego sucks in alien craft from Andromeda.
That took you an hour to write, didn't it?
Here's Rochdale Pioneers from February of this year:
"I read @Leon raving on about Biden having dementia...."
Apparently I was raving on. Rave on, Leon, Rave on
‘Raving on’ about things that are either so entirely obvious to most of us that we simply scroll on by, or are so patently loopy that we simply scroll on by, isn’t doing you any favours tbh.
I was accused of raving on about Biden having dementia, six months ago, a year ago, or more - even as half of PB denied that he had dementia, and scoffed at my "Trumpite messaging"
Now the President, it seems, is resigning because he has dementia
If lurkers read me on this forum, they would know this seismic event was highly likely; if they read you or any of the other halfwits, they'd be entirely clueless and this would come as a total shock
On a site dedicated to political betting, I suggest that makes my commentary notably more useful than yours. Also funnier
Emma Raducanu in blistering form at Wimbledon this afternoon beating Elise Mertens 6-1, 6-2. Mertens is no slouch in women’s tennis.
I tipped her on here a fortnight ago at 38/1. She now in at 12’s and that’s likely to shorten very quickly on this kind of form.
Do I think Emma will lift the title? No. Well, probably not. But it’s great to see her playing so well again today. She is showing how and why she won the US Open at the age of 18.
My wife tells me that we had a large group of Labour canvassers today. They claimed that Labour was now in second place in the seat. I haven't had time to look at these MRPs but I very seriously doubt that. Labour were absolutely nowhere in Angus the last time.
I was trying to work out what was going on. Do they really think that the Labour vote is so much up that it is worth spending money and resources the day before polling in a seat that must be beyond the reach of even this landslide? Are they so confident that they are going to pick up Dundee that they don't need to do more there? Are they simply so swamped with resources that they are struggling to find a use for them all?
Personally, I think the SNP will hold on here (Angus and the Perthshire Glens) but I would be quite cross if a lift in the Labour vote splits the Unionist vote and helps the SNP hang on. Its not in Labour's interests either although I appreciate that a lot of their supporters would be horrified to help a Tory, even indirectly.
Recall, this is after at least a YEAR of evidence - some of it brazen and blatant - that Biden was going gaga. Even by mid June the very dumbest of PB-ers - eg @Anabobazina - were trying to discount it and ignore it
Not unrelatedly, @Anabobazina was possibly the last PBer to defend the Wet Market Hypothesis
There really is a weird mental phenomenon at work here, where educated (but not very intelligent) people will deliberately believe insane things if the alternative makes them uncomfortable. It is the cerebration of toddlers. The mentality of the impaired
It's EXACTLY the same as Lab leak, and is as simple as this: "If Trump says it, we must disagree with it."
Don't think I've ever seen anything as preposterous as Betfair implying Gavin Newsom or Michelle Obama have a bigger combined chance than Biden of winning the election
It's just a bet on Biden being the nominee basically. Has the market got ahead of itself - maybe. Will he be the nominee - no.
I’m seeing lots of FBPE people saying that Starmer has lost their vote over his EU comments. Could make the difference for the Lib Dems in a few seats.
Another one. Argh. Can you remind me what FBPE stands for please?
I’m seeing lots of FBPE people saying that Starmer has lost their vote over his EU comments. Could make the difference for the Lib Dems in a few seats.
You just see whatever you want to see. That’s been apparent all campaign.
Recall, this is after at least a YEAR of evidence - some of it brazen and blatant - that Biden was going gaga. Even by mid June the very dumbest of PB-ers - eg @Anabobazina - were trying to discount it and ignore it
Not unrelatedly, @Anabobazina was possibly the last PBer to defend the Wet Market Hypothesis
There really is a weird mental phenomenon at work here, where educated (but not very intelligent) people will deliberately believe insane things if the alternative makes them uncomfortable. It is the cerebration of toddlers. The mentality of the impaired
It's EXACTLY the same as Lab leak, and is as simple as this: "If Trump says it, we must disagree with it."
I’m seeing lots of FBPE people saying that Starmer has lost their vote over his EU comments. Could make the difference for the Lib Dems in a few seats.
Another one. Argh. Can you remind me what FBPE stands for please?
Follow back, pro Europe. It was a way for remainers to meet more of their kind and avoid nasty brexit people
I’m seeing lots of FBPE people saying that Starmer has lost their vote over his EU comments. Could make the difference for the Lib Dems in a few seats.
Another one. Argh. Can you remind me what FBPE stands for please?
Don't think I've ever seen anything as preposterous as Betfair implying Gavin Newsom or Michelle Obama have a bigger combined chance than Biden of winning the election
Biden is a tiny chance now. And if ain’t Kamala there’s a fairly short list.
TLDR: the exit poll and/or the number of projected seats may be wrong. It's best to wait a bit before making conclusive observations and assigning praise/blame.
What the hell is TLDR?
I do hope election night isn’t full of acronyms.
"Too Long: Didn't Read". Used as a synonym for "In summary"
I’m seeing lots of FBPE people saying that Starmer has lost their vote over his EU comments. Could make the difference for the Lib Dems in a few seats.
Another one. Argh. Can you remind me what FBPE stands for please?
Follow back, pro Europe. It was a way for remainers to meet more of their kind and avoid nasty brexit people
Sounds like Biden is done. Only question left are whether they go with Kamala, which realistically means she becomes president now for the benefit of incumbency. Or a West Wing open convention. Pretty obvs what we all want here!
All the many many people who scoffed and chortled at my “Biden is senile” remarks, or who accused me of using trumpite talking points, can now grovel apologetically and pour sour ashes over their heads and make vast contributions to my favourite charity - the Make Leon Rich Society - as the President is about to resign on the grounds of senility
And then you might profitably ask yourself how you keep getting these things wrong as I get them right
Plenty of people on here said he was senile.
Seriously, watching you strut around like a peacock with a superiority complex is like observing a parade of one. Your undisputed talent is to make every conversation, no matter how unrelated, about yourself. You're like a human black hole of dialogue, sucking in all attention and leaving nothing but the cold, empty vacuum of your self-importance. Your arrogance has made your UFO shite self-fulfilling - who the fuck needs the Earth's gravity when your ego sucks in alien craft from Andromeda.
That took you an hour to write, didn't it?
Here's Rochdale Pioneers from February of this year:
"I read @Leon raving on about Biden having dementia...."
Apparently I was raving on. Rave on, Leon, Rave on
‘Raving on’ about things that are either so entirely obvious to most of us that we simply scroll on by, or are so patently loopy that we simply scroll on by, isn’t doing you any favours tbh.
I was accused of raving on about Biden having dementia, six months ago, a year ago, or more - even as half of PB denied that he had dementia, and scoffed at my "Trumpite messaging"
Now the President, it seems, is resigning because he has dementia
If lurkers read me on this forum, they would know this seismic event was highly likely; if they read you or any of the other halfwits, they'd be entirely clueless and this would come as a total shock
On a site dedicated to political betting, I suggest that makes my commentary notably more useful than yours. Also funnier
Only because you’re such an obvious figure of fun.
I’m seeing lots of FBPE people saying that Starmer has lost their vote over his EU comments. Could make the difference for the Lib Dems in a few seats.
Another one. Argh. Can you remind me what FBPE stands for please?
Follow back, pro Europe. It was a way for remainers to meet more of their kind and avoid nasty brexit people
I always thought it really meant "Fuck Brexit Pro Europe"
I’m seeing lots of FBPE people saying that Starmer has lost their vote over his EU comments. Could make the difference for the Lib Dems in a few seats.
Another one. Argh. Can you remind me what FBPE stands for please?
"Follow back Pro Europe". It was a hashtag used by Remainers on Twitter after the referendum so they could identify each other.
I’m seeing lots of FBPE people saying that Starmer has lost their vote over his EU comments. Could make the difference for the Lib Dems in a few seats.
Another one. Argh. Can you remind me what FBPE stands for please?
TLDR: the exit poll and/or the number of projected seats may be wrong. It's best to wait a bit before making conclusive observations and assigning praise/blame.
TLDR: the exit poll and/or the number of projected seats may be wrong. It's best to wait a bit before making conclusive observations and assigning praise/blame.
Imagine the faces in the audience and the meltdown here if the exit poll is read out at 10pm as "Conservatives 30 Majority".....
You would make a lot of money. I suspect if Tory high command thought that an overall majority was possible then the odds would be a lot lower.
Someone would. 100-1 on Ladbrokes.
Nobody in their right mind would take that price.
It’s 370 on Betfair.
Three hundred and seventy.
Might actually make sense as a trading bet. Not cause it will happen, but cause the exit poll may screw up in enough of a way as to cause some forlorn hope...
Just had a long conversation with my teenage daughter. They had a mock election at school. She voted Green. Most people did, apparently. It depressed me. But she said that there was essentially one reason for hers and everyone else's vote: tuition fees. And it makes perfect sense. As adults we have quickly got used to the situation where we expect the next generation to start adulthood in crippling levels of debt. But why should we be? It's ridiculous. To be honest, if that were the Green's only policy I'd vote for them in a shot. Umfortunately they come with a lot of other baggage.
Very interesting. The Conservative fall is easily explained given the rise of Reform and the campaign mishaps. The much larger Labour fall is much more of a mystery. Especially given Starmer’s personal ratings have been rising at the same time.
There could be a mixture of reasons. A few:
- Left wing voters peeling away to independents and greens - Tactical voting Dutch salutes - Leaking some votes to Reform in the Red Wall - Some recovery of the SNP during the campaign
An interesting feature of many of the recent MRPs is the way they've been showing the Tories surprisingly close to winning in Ynys Môn despite defending a majority of only 1,968 (5.4%).
The sole Tory Welsh seat being Ynys Mon would be Keith Bestastic
By two votes. BigG and Mrs BigG
I believe the Gs are in Aberconwy.
I wouldn't put it past them to sneak past the guards and swim to the island, dodging the searchlights and guard leeks. Them's cunning, the family BigG...
I’m seeing lots of FBPE people saying that Starmer has lost their vote over his EU comments. Could make the difference for the Lib Dems in a few seats.
Another one. Argh. Can you remind me what FBPE stands for please?
Follow back, pro Europe. It was a way for remainers to meet more of their kind and avoid nasty brexit people
The awkward cringiness of the acronym - Follow Back, Pro Europe, really??? - captures the wankiness of the people that adopt it
Remoaners are their own worst enemies. I mean, Steve Bray, is he helping? @Scott_xP - is he persuading anyone on here?
If they had an ounce of humour it would help enormously. But they are so deadly earnest, and earnestly relentless. It has some of the less pleasant aspects of dogmatic religious faith
Just had a long conversation with my teenage daughter. They had a mock election at school. She voted Green. Most people did, apparently. It depressed me. But she said that there was essentially one reason for hers and everyone else's vote: tuition fees. And it makes perfect sense. As adults we have quickly got used to the situation where we expect the next generation to start adulthood in crippling levels of debt. But why should we be? It's ridiculous. To be honest, if that were the Green's only policy I'd vote for them in a shot. Umfortunately they come with a lot of other baggage.
She also asked me who I was going to vote for. Something of an essay question which I still don't know the answer to. But the more I talk it through the more I think the answer might be SDP.
TLDR: the exit poll and/or the number of projected seats may be wrong. It's best to wait a bit before making conclusive observations and assigning praise/blame.
What the hell is TLDR?
I do hope election night isn’t full of acronyms.
"Too Long, Didn´t Read".... I thought you were supposed to be down with the kids...
Sounds like Biden is done. Only question left are whether they go with Kamala, which realistically means she becomes president now for the benefit of incumbency. Or a West Wing open convention. Pretty obvs what we all want here!
All the many many people who scoffed and chortled at my “Biden is senile” remarks, or who accused me of using trumpite talking points, can now grovel apologetically and pour sour ashes over their heads and make vast contributions to my favourite charity - the Make Leon Rich Society - as the President is about to resign on the grounds of senility
And then you might profitably ask yourself how you keep getting these things wrong as I get them right
Plenty of people on here said he was senile.
Seriously, watching you strut around like a peacock with a superiority complex is like observing a parade of one. Your undisputed talent is to make every conversation, no matter how unrelated, about yourself. You're like a human black hole of dialogue, sucking in all attention and leaving nothing but the cold, empty vacuum of your self-importance. Your arrogance has made your UFO shite self-fulfilling - who the fuck needs the Earth's gravity when your ego sucks in alien craft from Andromeda.
That took you an hour to write, didn't it?
Here's Rochdale Pioneers from February of this year:
"I read @Leon raving on about Biden having dementia...."
Apparently I was raving on. Rave on, Leon, Rave on
‘Raving on’ about things that are either so entirely obvious to most of us that we simply scroll on by, or are so patently loopy that we simply scroll on by, isn’t doing you any favours tbh.
I was accused of raving on about Biden having dementia, six months ago, a year ago, or more - even as half of PB denied that he had dementia, and scoffed at my "Trumpite messaging"
Now the President, it seems, is resigning because he has dementia
If lurkers read me on this forum, they would know this seismic event was highly likely; if they read you or any of the other halfwits, they'd be entirely clueless and this would come as a total shock
On a site dedicated to political betting, I suggest that makes my commentary notably more useful than yours. Also funnier
Come along. You get accused of raving on about things precisely because you rave on about things. Inevitably you can point back to situations where you've been accused of raving on about things and have been proven correct!
If you printed out your commentary it'd be very useful indeed - especially if done so on thin paper in long rolls.
(FWIW I think you do have a rather good insight into quite a lot of issues - perhaps it's all that travel)
I’m seeing lots of FBPE people saying that Starmer has lost their vote over his EU comments. Could make the difference for the Lib Dems in a few seats.
Another one. Argh. Can you remind me what FBPE stands for please?
Follow back, pro Europe. It was a way for remainers to meet more of their kind and avoid nasty brexit people
The awkward cringiness of the acronym - Follow Back, Pro Europe, really??? - captures the wankiness of the people that adopt it
Remoaners are their own worst enemies. I mean, Steve Bray, is he helping? @Scott_xP - is he persuading anyone on here?
If they had an ounce of humour it would help enormously. But they are so deadly earnest, and earnestly relentless. It has some of the less pleasant aspects of dogmatic religious faith
Along the same lines as the European Research Group which never did any research on Europe or anything else for that matter.
Sounds like Biden is done. Only question left are whether they go with Kamala, which realistically means she becomes president now for the benefit of incumbency. Or a West Wing open convention. Pretty obvs what we all want here!
All the many many people who scoffed and chortled at my “Biden is senile” remarks, or who accused me of using trumpite talking points, can now grovel apologetically and pour sour ashes over their heads and make vast contributions to my favourite charity - the Make Leon Rich Society - as the President is about to resign on the grounds of senility
And then you might profitably ask yourself how you keep getting these things wrong as I get them right
Plenty of people on here said he was senile.
Seriously, watching you strut around like a peacock with a superiority complex is like observing a parade of one. Your undisputed talent is to make every conversation, no matter how unrelated, about yourself. You're like a human black hole of dialogue, sucking in all attention and leaving nothing but the cold, empty vacuum of your self-importance. Your arrogance has made your UFO shite self-fulfilling - who the fuck needs the Earth's gravity when your ego sucks in alien craft from Andromeda.
That took you an hour to write, didn't it?
Here's Rochdale Pioneers from February of this year:
"I read @Leon raving on about Biden having dementia...."
Apparently I was raving on. Rave on, Leon, Rave on
‘Raving on’ about things that are either so entirely obvious to most of us that we simply scroll on by, or are so patently loopy that we simply scroll on by, isn’t doing you any favours tbh.
I was accused of raving on about Biden having dementia, six months ago, a year ago, or more - even as half of PB denied that he had dementia, and scoffed at my "Trumpite messaging"
Now the President, it seems, is resigning because he has dementia
If lurkers read me on this forum, they would know this seismic event was highly likely; if they read you or any of the other halfwits, they'd be entirely clueless and this would come as a total shock
On a site dedicated to political betting, I suggest that makes my commentary notably more useful than yours. Also funnier
Come along. You get accused of raving on about things precisely because you rave on about things. Inevitably you can point back to situations where you've been accused of raving on about things and have been proven correct!
If you printed out your commentary it'd be very useful indeed - especially if done so on thin paper in long rolls.
(FWIW I think you do have a rather good insight into quite a lot of issues - perhaps it's all that travel)
Ignore them. Without eccentric quirky posters like you and Malcolm the site would be a boring echo chamber of Lib Dems to the right of their party and conservatives to the Left of their party splitting hairs about their version of essentially the same (wrong) policies.
Reform have underperformed in every election over the last 2 years compared to their polling.
Can anyone explain to me why it'd be different just because Nigel Farage turns up in the last 4 weeks?
Shy refukkers seems at least as plausible as shy Tories. Its the first election they have taken seriously. The government have been really, really bad so voters looking for a change but might not be Labour/LD inclined.
Of course they might continue to do worse than their polling but I'd back 3/1 they do better than the polling too.
TLDR: the exit poll and/or the number of projected seats may be wrong. It's best to wait a bit before making conclusive observations and assigning praise/blame.
Sounds like Biden is done. Only question left are whether they go with Kamala, which realistically means she becomes president now for the benefit of incumbency. Or a West Wing open convention. Pretty obvs what we all want here!
All the many many people who scoffed and chortled at my “Biden is senile” remarks, or who accused me of using trumpite talking points, can now grovel apologetically and pour sour ashes over their heads and make vast contributions to my favourite charity - the Make Leon Rich Society - as the President is about to resign on the grounds of senility
And then you might profitably ask yourself how you keep getting these things wrong as I get them right
Plenty of people on here said he was senile.
Seriously, watching you strut around like a peacock with a superiority complex is like observing a parade of one. Your undisputed talent is to make every conversation, no matter how unrelated, about yourself. You're like a human black hole of dialogue, sucking in all attention and leaving nothing but the cold, empty vacuum of your self-importance. Your arrogance has made your UFO shite self-fulfilling - who the fuck needs the Earth's gravity when your ego sucks in alien craft from Andromeda.
That took you an hour to write, didn't it?
Here's Rochdale Pioneers from February of this year:
"I read @Leon raving on about Biden having dementia...."
Apparently I was raving on. Rave on, Leon, Rave on
Is that it? One partial quote with no link? What happened to the spreadsheet you made? What happened to the dozens of hilarious posts from me?
Very disappointing, it's almost getting hard to take you seriously any more.
Comments
They will lose more MPs from that than any other single issue IMHO.
1. Labour supporters in the South don't vote tactically for the LibDems. Quite possible, albeit I suspect not particularly likely.
2. Reform to underperform, particularly in the South, with their vote going disproportionately back to the Conservatives. Also quite possible. But that's not really consistent with Reform polling 14%+.
3. Labour to hit only the low-point of their polling. Yep, perfectly possible.
But here's the thing. Even if all of these happen, the Conservatives are still likely to suffer an equivalent result to 2005, where the Labour Party was only a few percent ahead of the Conservatives and where they managed an 80 seat majority.
Building something better in its place requires more than straightforward intelligence.
That may come back to bite the Tories. So far it hasn’t.
If, and it’s still a big if, Ed Davey takes the role of LOTO then Cameron can reflect on karma.
Seriously, watching you strut around like a peacock with a superiority complex is like observing a parade of one. Your undisputed talent is to make every conversation, no matter how unrelated, about yourself. You're like a human black hole of dialogue, sucking in all attention and leaving nothing but the cold, empty vacuum of your self-importance. Your arrogance has made your UFO shite self-fulfilling - who the fuck needs the Earth's gravity when your ego sucks in alien craft from Andromeda.
Here's a longer thread on just some of the challenges I think there are to interpretation tomorrow night.
https://x.com/ProfJaneGreen/status/1808543010499801579
Here's Rochdale Pioneers from February of this year:
"I read @Leon raving on about Biden having dementia...."
Apparently I was raving on. Rave on, Leon, Rave on
They crushed it for the LOLZ
Corrected entry scuppered by new fred. Here it is again. Apols for my general incompetence. Thanks for running the comp!
General Election Competition
In how many seats will:
1. Reform beat Conservative (don't count draws)? 51
2. Labour finish 3rd or lower (don't count where they didn't stand)? 78
3. Conservatives lose their deposit? 25
4. Lib Dems lose their deposit? 303
5. Reform lose their deposit? 242
6. Labour lose their deposit? 0
How big:
7. Will the largest winning vote margin be? 33699
8. Will the biggest notional majority defeated be (only count where the incumbent party stands)? 27,210
How small:
9. Will the smallest winning vote margin be (1st - 2nd)? 56
10. Will the smallest gap between 1st and 3rd be? 1125
11. Will the lowest number of votes for any candidate? 11
How many:
12. Parties will be elected (whether or not they take their seats. All true independents are grouped as a single party)? 12
13. Seats will the Conservatives win? 98
14. Seats will Labour win? 415
15. Seats will Lib Dems win? 42
16. Seats will the SNP win? 31
17. Seats will Sinn Fein win? 7
18. Seats will DUP win? 6
19. Seats will Reform come second in? 75
What percentage vote:
20. Will Conservatives get across the UK? 22.3%
21. Will Reform get across the UK? 15.7%
22. Will SNP get in Scotland? 37.3%
23. Will be lowest of any winning candidate? 29.5%
24. Will be highest of any 2nd place candidate? 45.1%
25. Will Speaker get? 78.9%
Had this site morphed into mugpunter.com ?
What he posted was absolutely spot on.
So I’ll cut and paste it just to annoy you. But also because this is precisely why you are about to take one hell of a beating. You became the Nasty Party Redux.
'As the Tories pander to the prejudices and hard-right agenda of Nigel Farage and his supporters, it’s become clear that what’s at stake in this election is nothing less than what it means to be British.
Britain has always been defined by three basic truths. First, fairness: a belief that we’re not just self-seeking individuals with no obligation to others - just look at the pride we take in the NHS. But this sense of decency has been torn apart by Tory vindictiveness.
The idea that social security should take the shame out of need has been eroded. Now families are forced to depend on food banks instead of the welfare state to avoid hunger and destitution. I’ve never seen poor people so humiliated and stigmatised.
Then there’s civil liberties and the rule of law. We’ve seen these most British of values repeatedly undermined – from the proroguing of Parliament to legislation ignoring international law to attacks on the ECHR which was created by Churchill and his colleagues.
Finally, the far right claims Britain does best when we stand apart from other nations. But Britain is at its best when it sees the Channel not as a moat but as a bridge, when we are outward-looking and lead - as we did in last century’s fight against fascism.
This election we can reject the Farage and Tory version of Britain and get our real country back. We can return to the British values of decency, respect for the law and openness.
With a world in flames, it’s never been more vital to defend and vote for these principles.'
"At the end of this article, there is more on Biden at the G7 and the claim that he just wandered off is debunked": https://apnews.com/article/trump-mental-acuity-gaffe-biden-ronny-jackson-0d45b6d89ae295b690f5ad12ca0bd38a
https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4837697/#Comment_4837697
Recall, this is after at least a YEAR of evidence - some of it brazen and blatant - that Biden was going gaga. Even by mid June the very dumbest of PB-ers - eg @Anabobazina - were trying to discount it and ignore it
Not unrelatedly, @Anabobazina was possibly the last PBer to defend the Wet Market Hypothesis
There really is a weird mental phenomenon at work here, where educated (but not very intelligent) people will deliberately believe insane things if the alternative makes them uncomfortable. It is the cerebration of toddlers. The mentality of the impaired
Lab started at 45.5 and has moved in almost a straight line downwards to now stand at 39.
If it is a Con wipeout it begs the question what would have happened if the GE had been before the campaign.
Campaign movements:
Lab: start 45.5, now 39 (down 6.5)
Con: start 24, now 21.5 (down 2.5)
Ref: start 11, now 16 (up 5)
LD: start 9, now 11 (up 2)
Green: start 5.5, now 6.5 (up 1)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2024_United_Kingdom_general_election
I do hope election night isn’t full of acronyms.
Not bad on less than 12m votes
He’s reminding me of a cross between Joey Barton and Russell Brand
Which is where we are at.
The interesting thing is that Trump's faculties are arguably even more shot than Biden's. At least Biden hasn't publically mulled over death by shark versus electrocution. The best outcome is Dems get a new candidate (Dems Without Dementia!) whilst Trump, having got his Kingly immunity, goes undisputedly as mad as King George III.
BX needs online account
I mean granted the end result has been obvious for months but size of the result and the consequences are totally unknown
Too Long Didn't Read
Usually denoting someone has read it, and are summarising it in more concise fashion.
There are a series of youtube channels doing short form videos with that title though
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCSMqateX8OA2s1wsOR2EgJA
They record in a studio with David Cameron's memoire on the shelf.
"What happens at the count?
...........................................................................
Ballot papers from a ballot box are mixed with those from at least one other, including postal votes, to help preserve the secrecy of the vote. Votes are then sorted by candidate. Ballots for each candidate are placed in bundles and their number checked by more than one counting assistant. Ballots should be kept face up at all times. This prevents anyone seeing the ballot paper number and ensures the count is transparent for agents and observers."
https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/what-happens-when-the-polls-close/
Now the President, it seems, is resigning because he has dementia
If lurkers read me on this forum, they would know this seismic event was highly likely; if they read you or any of the other halfwits, they'd be entirely clueless and this would come as a total shock
On a site dedicated to political betting, I suggest that makes my commentary notably more useful than yours. Also funnier
I was trying to work out what was going on. Do they really think that the Labour vote is so much up that it is worth spending money and resources the day before polling in a seat that must be beyond the reach of even this landslide? Are they so confident that they are going to pick up Dundee that they don't need to do more there? Are they simply so swamped with resources that they are struggling to find a use for them all?
Personally, I think the SNP will hold on here (Angus and the Perthshire Glens) but I would be quite cross if a lift in the Labour vote splits the Unionist vote and helps the SNP hang on. Its not in Labour's interests either although I appreciate that a lot of their supporters would be horrified to help a Tory, even indirectly.
It was a way for remainers to meet more of their kind and avoid nasty brexit people
More anti-Tory and Reform than pro-Labour and Starmer
But she said that there was essentially one reason for hers and everyone else's vote: tuition fees.
And it makes perfect sense. As adults we have quickly got used to the situation where we expect the next generation to start adulthood in crippling levels of debt. But why should we be? It's ridiculous. To be honest, if that were the Green's only policy I'd vote for them in a shot. Umfortunately they come with a lot of other baggage.
There could be a mixture of reasons. A few:
- Left wing voters peeling away to independents and greens
- Tactical voting Dutch salutes
- Leaking some votes to Reform in the Red Wall
- Some recovery of the SNP during the campaign
Remoaners are their own worst enemies. I mean, Steve Bray, is he helping? @Scott_xP - is he persuading anyone on here?
If they had an ounce of humour it would help enormously. But they are so deadly earnest, and earnestly relentless. It has some of the less pleasant aspects of dogmatic religious faith
I reckon the Irish PM.
I expect quite a few:
ROFL
FFS
OMFG
BYOB
TGIF
FUBAR
BFD
SNAFU
LMAO
WTF
If you printed out your commentary it'd be very useful indeed - especially if done so on thin paper in long rolls.
(FWIW I think you do have a rather good insight into quite a lot of issues - perhaps it's all that travel)
Can anyone explain to me why it'd be different just because Nigel Farage turns up in the last 4 weeks?
The man is quite possibly more mad than I realised. The game’s up, Joe.
I just think it won't be as big an underperformance as before.
Deffo Con 9, possible Con 8, Not voting 3, LibDem 1, Green 1, Reform 0. Not in 19.
So how will that street vote tomorrow?
(Hope you’re ok btw, its a bit rubbish for you at the moment)
Its the first election they have taken seriously.
The government have been really, really bad so voters looking for a change but might not be Labour/LD inclined.
Of course they might continue to do worse than their polling but I'd back 3/1 they do better than the polling too.
Only realistic chances are Ashfield and Clacton. Not impossible they get neither
Should there be a site policy banning TLAs?
Very disappointing, it's almost getting hard to take you seriously any more.