Just got a new phone - and in porting over seemingly arbitrary bits and bobs from my old phone, I came across a singularly arresting image. Took me a moment to realise what it was. I'm using my one image of the day to share it. Any guesses what or where this is?
Incidentally, I was once walking on the eastern edges and came across a corroded shell - apparently a left-over from when the area was used as a practice range. I left it well alone.
Do you think Donald Trump left the country better or worse than when he took office?
Better 48% Worse 47% ——— Do you think Joe Biden has made the country better or worse since taking office?
Better 36% Worse 57%
The last part is why I always thought it would be a struggle for Biden. Republican not pick Trump and they would win. Stock market might be going well in US, but day to day cost of living is crazy high, in many ways worse than here e.g. the culture in the US is that people eat out a lot more than here, and cost of take-away / restaurants through the roof due to combination of inflation and much high minimum wage (in some states).
Just got a new phone - and in porting over seemingly arbitrary bits and bobs from my old phone, I came across a singularly arresting image. Took me a moment to realise what it was. I'm using my one image of the day to share it. Any guesses what or where this is?
Burnt-out rotary piston engines? i.e old warplanes?
They managed to land two blows on Lab-tax bomb and supermajority.
Lab have not landed any blows on Con but they didn`t need to.
Had Rishi managed to get a flight off, he would have avoided leaking votes to Reform like they have. They got lucky with Nick Robinson getting Farage to support Putin and the Channel 4 racism video or things could have been a lot worse.
I am going to look like an idiot tomorrow night but I think polls are undercooking Con and overcooking Lab.
TLDR: the exit poll and/or the number of projected seats may be wrong. It's best to wait a bit before making conclusive observations and assigning praise/blame.
What the hell is TLDR?
I do hope election night isn’t full of acronyms.
WTF?
IDK
Should there be a site policy banning TLAs?
A pedant notes: neither TLDR, WTF, IDK or TLA are acronyms. They are abbreviations. For it to be an acronym you need to be able to pronounce it. Like 'Nato'.
Yet another pedant notes that I did not call them acronyms
Just got a new phone - and in porting over seemingly arbitrary bits and bobs from my old phone, I came across a singularly arresting image. Took me a moment to realise what it was. I'm using my one image of the day to share it. Any guesses what or where this is?
Burnt-out rotary piston engines? i.e old warplanes?
Yes - the Bleaklow Bomber. Crashed om Bleaklow outside Glossop in, I think, 1946. Surprisingly evocative and worth a trip.
Whilst there is clearly still a division between pollsters on the exact level of carnage, lets all be clear on what unites them - the Tories are getting demolished tomorrow. Their best case scenario appears to be getting beat slightly worse than they did in 1997, which took them nearly 2 decades to recover from.
And the worst case? Well...
So many people have said that the ReFUKers are going to come home to the Tories. No, they are not. They are in it to win it (conservatism). Farage BFFing Putin dampened their stretch, it didn't damage their core vote.
With fUKers getting in the Tories way in seat after seat, they will only accelerate the fall of seats.
Some critical commentary from YouGov’s latest MRP:
While there is a general expectation across pollsters and analysts that swing will indeed be proportional this time around – that being different to the vast majority of British elections, in which it tends to be uniform – the extent of that proportionality can be the difference between a scenario in which the Conservatives on around 22% of the vote could drop as low as 60 seats or reach as high as 140 seats.
The Conservative vote share at the 2019 general election was roughly 44%. We estimate that the Conservatives will win 22% of the vote share tomorrow. This would be a literal halving of the party’s support since the last election.
We estimate that the proportionality of the swing will be approaching 1:1 proportionality, but will stop short of a situation where, for example, the Conservatives are on 50% on the vote in 2019 and end up on 25% tomorrow. We would anticipate that value to be around 26% or 27%.
If the swing is more proportional than we estimate, then the Conservatives will end up with fewer seats. If the swing is less proportional than we estimate, then the Conservatives will lose less. With no historical markers or comparators for us to benchmark this coming election against, it is very difficult to tell exactly which way this relationship will fall. This, plus the usual caveats around polling regarding statistical uncertainty and margins of error, serve as a reminder to set expectations wide as to exactly what sort of election result we may see come July 5th.
This is why this election so far has seemed like such a huge outlier.
During my first stint on PB in the late 2000s, the received wisdom was that whilst proportional swing often 'felt' like it should give better results, uniform swing always, always turned out to be closer to reality.
Nowadays, of course, we've gone beyond that. We have Multi-level regression and post-stratification models. We have non-parametric regression models. We have Baxter's model, which appears to be proportional swing + magic tweaks.
So we're relying so heavily on those, and have forgotten all about UNS. And, sure, UNS can't possibly be right in every constituency as it would require negative vote counts in some places. And one variant of MRP was accurate in 2017 (though not so much in 2019).
But here we are in 2024, seeing the final polls herding together yet again, which implies some level of manual adjustment is going on behind the scenes, yet again. Why do we think that MRP, SRP, PNS, or Baxter will produce a better result than UNS this time when they have so rarely done so before?
UNS on current polling produces something like L 400, C 165, LD 45
For the record, my biggest bet is on Con seats in the 50-99 range - which are the sort of numbers that Baxter or the most pessimistic end of the MRPs are producing. But I've got average odds of around 4-1 on that, which I think will probably turn out to be a good value loser.
Last minute wobbles? Probably, yes. But I do think people are getting carried away by the easy availability of Baxter, without realising that it's producing results that are at the extreme end of what others are predicting.
UNS is just an extremely crude approximation that was simple enough to apply before computers were available to the psephologist. More sophisticated models that take into account multiple variables certainly should be better if they are competently done.
Just got a new phone - and in porting over seemingly arbitrary bits and bobs from my old phone, I came across a singularly arresting image. Took me a moment to realise what it was. I'm using my one image of the day to share it. Any guesses what or where this is?
Making it your core idea and then not delivering is not a great idea. Maybe they thought the delays and problems would stir people up against Labour somehow?
It will stir up against Labour once they are in office. There is no Plan B. Starmer better pray for some shit weather in the Channel for the next three months. If the migrants start arriving in record numbers - and the snakeheads are going to push the issue to see how many they can expect to get across in the next months and years - any honeymoon period is going to be met with an early divorce.
I remember hearing the Rwanda plan announced by Patel whilst driving through Hucknall. It was one of those seminal moments of performative hideousness from the Johnson Government, which is why I remember it so well. It was a knee jerk from Johnson during a period of stress on his tenure as Prime Minister. It was a stunt derided by several Tory grandees, including Sunak and Cleverly.
Johnson fell and I thought that was that, then Braverman became Home Secretary (twice) and "dreamed" of sending desperate people to a regime that had summarily executed asylum seekers who had complained about their food rations.
I am relieved the courts responded as they did. It is absurdly expensive and despite some over -ramped faux evidence it is no deterrent to the mafia style gangs.
Alongside Brexit this was one of those ludicrous demonstrations of idiocy promoted by the Johnson Government. I thought Sunak was better than that.
Was there mist rolling off the Misk Hills to make it even more bleak?
I was on my way to Heanor then Eastwood so the day got even bleaker.
If Starmer had been leader in 2017 he would not have squandered the gold plated opportunity that May’s terrible campaign presented Labour with. Instead we got another 7 years of Tory thanks to your idiot.
Yeah mate of course he would have bettered the biggest swing to LAB since WW2 achieved despite your idiots best efforts
President Biden on campaign call that just wrapped, per person on the call:
"Let me say this as clearly as I possibly can as simply and straightforward as I can: I am running…no one’s pushing me out. I’m not leaving. I’m in this race to the end and we’re going to win.”
He's so demented he doesn't realise he's demented. They're gonna have to drag him out. What a tragic spectacle
But if the Dems let him run, then they will deserve the crushing defeat that follows
What's the feeling around turnout? I still reckon record low, but some people are predicting it will be very high!
I saw that in Bulgaria they had a general election and turnout was 33%, remarkably low (but they have been having many snap early elections in recent years apparently).
President Biden on campaign call that just wrapped, per person on the call:
"Let me say this as clearly as I possibly can as simply and straightforward as I can: I am running…no one’s pushing me out. I’m not leaving. I’m in this race to the end and we’re going to win.”
If Starmer had been leader in 2017 he would not have squandered the gold plated opportunity that May’s terrible campaign presented Labour with. Instead we got another 7 years of Tory thanks to your idiot.
Yeah mate of course he would have bettered the biggest swing to LAB since WW2 achieved despite your idiots best efforts
Stop lying, it wasn't the biggest swing to Labour since WW2.
Reform have underperformed in every election over the last 2 years compared to their polling.
Can anyone explain to me why it'd be different just because Nigel Farage turns up in the last 4 weeks?
Conversation at work.
Me: I wish there was a "None of the above box" to tick to say bollocks to the lot of them.
Other: So do I. Actually there is. It says "Reform"
And that's why they underpoll.
Another (easier) way of saying NOTA on the day and bollocks to the lot of them is just simply not turning up to vote.
I can see that. And whilst I don't think it's worth as much as parties think, lack of organised ground game may cost them nominal support in quite a few areas.
I think they'll be comfortably over 10 though, and 4-5 above LDs. Should still be worth a couple of seats.
TLDR: the exit poll and/or the number of projected seats may be wrong. It's best to wait a bit before making conclusive observations and assigning praise/blame.
What the hell is TLDR?
I do hope election night isn’t full of acronyms.
WTF?
IDK
Should there be a site policy banning TLAs?
A pedant notes: neither TLDR, WTF, IDK or TLA are acronyms. They are abbreviations. For it to be an acronym you need to be able to pronounce it. Like 'Nato'.
Yet another pedant notes that I did not call them acronyms
No, but the poster up two embedded posts from you did!
What's the feeling around turnout? I still reckon record low, but some people are predicting it will be very high!
I saw that in Bulgaria they had a general election and turnout was 33%, remarkably low (but they have been having many snap early elections in recent years apparently).
What's the feeling around turnout? I still reckon record low, but some people are predicting it will be very high!
I saw that in Bulgaria they had a general election and turnout was 33%, remarkably low (but they have been having many snap early elections in recent years apparently).
High turnout. This is an ASC event (Augean Stable Clearance) and people cannot resist handing out a deserved kicking.
To be fair, I think Johnny Mercer and his wife get a lot of targeted hate. I am not 100% sure why, is he the worst of the worst of the Tories? I am not sure Mrs Mercer always reacts well, but for instance Voderman is constantly directing a pile on against them, she seems to have a real vendetta against Mrs Mercer. I thought the one really taking the biscuit was when she was going on about how they were total thickos because they didn't go to university.
Just got a new phone - and in porting over seemingly arbitrary bits and bobs from my old phone, I came across a singularly arresting image. Took me a moment to realise what it was. I'm using my one image of the day to share it. Any guesses what or where this is?
If Starmer had been leader in 2017 he would not have squandered the gold plated opportunity that May’s terrible campaign presented Labour with. Instead we got another 7 years of Tory thanks to your idiot.
Yeah mate of course he would have bettered the biggest swing to LAB since WW2 achieved despite your idiots best efforts
Stop lying, it wasn't the biggest swing to Labour since WW2.
Corbyn getting utterly spanked by the Labour candidate would almost beat a Portillo moment for Jenrick. If I can't have both, either will do.
Exclusive: Leaked messages show Tory campaigners in meltdown over Reform surge
Veteran Tory campaigner tells GBN: "I never had anything like it as a Tory, Reform are sweeping us away.”
Leaked Tory group chat show volunteers panicked about Reform support
Can you imagine Sunak, Davey or Starmer managing to get 5,000 people to enthusiastically turn up voluntarily to a rally?
Oooh Jeremy Corbyn managed it. What did he achieve during his Premiership?
There is no point having lots of devoted fans if you have lots of devoted enemies as well. FPTP favours the beige, which is why someone whose admirers think is dull is apparently about to become Prime Minister with an absurd majority.
If Starmer had been leader in 2017 he would not have squandered the gold plated opportunity that May’s terrible campaign presented Labour with. Instead we got another 7 years of Tory thanks to your idiot.
Yeah mate of course he would have bettered the biggest swing to LAB since WW2 achieved despite your idiots best efforts
Stop lying, it wasn't the biggest swing to Labour since WW2.
It was about a 5 point swing, I think? So depending on how you count the 1945 election itself either second or third.
It would however have been their largest swing in an election they went on to lose.
Exclusive: Leaked messages show Tory campaigners in meltdown over Reform surge
Veteran Tory campaigner tells GBN: "I never had anything like it as a Tory, Reform are sweeping us away.”
Leaked Tory group chat show volunteers panicked about Reform support
Can you imagine Sunak, Davey or Starmer managing to get 5,000 people to enthusiastically turn up voluntarily to a rally?
No. But why does that mean they will do well in votes? Corbyn could draw great crowds at his rallies, we know that rally enthusiasm does not mean a party will do well.
I happen to be pretty bullish about Reform's vote share chances, but 'Oooh, he got a big crowd' doesn't show that they will do well one way or the other.
Reform have underperformed in every election over the last 2 years compared to their polling.
Can anyone explain to me why it'd be different just because Nigel Farage turns up in the last 4 weeks?
Conversation at work.
Me: I wish there was a "None of the above box" to tick to say bollocks to the lot of them.
Other: So do I. Actually there is. It says "Reform"
Private Eye podcast is five minutes of an impressionist doing Nigel Farage.
A special mini-episode treat - the wit and wisdom of Nigel Farage (is this right? Ed), as channelled by the Eye’s Craig Brown and Lewis Macleod. Find out what Nigel REALLY thinks about good old-fashioned British maths. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Eteo_cuXh7Q
That looks like a very hefty CON > REF swing in just a couple of days. Fuck. Let's Baxter it:
Hah. Incredible
LAB: 466 CON: 68 LD: 68 REF: 7 GRN: 3
Jeez. Imagine if that is the result. The Opposition would either be Tories + Reform, or - more likely? - LDs plus Green
Would anyone ally with the SNP? I doubt it
Lib Dem plus Alliance Party of Northern Ireland, who look set to get a second seat...
Wouldn't the DUP then back the Tories to annoy the Alliance though?
The DUP is not a sister party of the Tories, whereas the Alliance is of the LDs. It is likely the Alliance MPs will be LD members.
I just don't see what it buys for Alliance at home. Perhaps a slight counter to the charge that they're just a way to soften unionists up for a united Ireland - but at the cost of them putting off a chunk of their non-unionist vote.
John Alderdice takes the LD whip in the Lords, but aiui that's his personal decision rather than anything to do with the party.
There'd need to be some specific benefit to them from having Long + Eastwood and/or Farry caucusing with the LDs. Maybe a shadow cabinet post (other than shadow NI sec) might be enough, but my impression is that it's not something APNI have been considering - so shouldn't be taken for granted by the LD.
My photo quota for today is a flyer used by a cop in the USA on someone who had parked across the white line into a disabled parking space. A colouring-in sheet for antisocial parkers.
There are certain cards and stickers which are sometimes used - classically YPLAC ("You Parked Like a C*nt", or a less rude version thereof), and can be overly blunt. I don't think that works very often.
I have been looking for alternatives to put under windscreen wipers of people who block pedestrian access at our local hospital with their motor vehicles (eg park across pedestrian drop kerbs), to educate most who are mainly forgetful not malicious. I came across this one today.
I’m seeing lots of FBPE people saying that Starmer has lost their vote over his EU comments. Could make the difference for the Lib Dems in a few seats.
Another one. Argh. Can you remind me what FBPE stands for please?
Exclusive: Leaked messages show Tory campaigners in meltdown over Reform surge
Veteran Tory campaigner tells GBN: "I never had anything like it as a Tory, Reform are sweeping us away.”
Leaked Tory group chat show volunteers panicked about Reform support
Clickbait, but definitely getting interesting now. I won't say expecting, but I've been hoping for some signs of a Reform take off.
Are Putingate and racistgate really depressing the Reform vote, or just the Reform polling share? They are not the same thing. Can the massive show of public support for Reform really be a few cranks - they are finding a lot of cranks if so. Are pollsters paying too much attention to past voting behaviour? Are voters really petrified of a 'Labour supermajority' or do they not care, and are taking the opportunity to vote with their heart? As ever, Reform's performance is a riddle.
I probably shouldn't share, but one street canvassed this afternoon in South Devon shows how difficult it is to know what is really going on:
Deffo Con 9, possible Con 8, Not voting 3, LibDem 1, Green 1, Reform 0. Not in 19.
So how will that street vote tomorrow?
If that canvass is accurate, it’s a Tory landslide.
But as someone with decades of campaigning experience behind me, in all honesty that looks like the canvass return of someone who doesn’t know what they are doing. Those possible Tory entries are likely all voting for someone else, and that shouldn’t even be allowed as a canvass return on any current day sheet. They should have been pressed as to how they voted last time, at the very least.
In a local election we had a canvas sheet from our candidate that was just unbelievably supportive of him. It was just too good. Without telling him we re-canvassed it and got an entirely different result. Most people canvassed are polite and don't want to disappoint you, particularly if you are the candidate. There is a definite skill in canvassing in determining the person's true intentions.
The amazing thing is that the Tories appear to be still sending out canvassers with forms that have a ‘possible’ column on them? That sort of numpty canvassing went out in the 1980s.
Next he’ll be telling us that his canvassers are still allowed to mark people down as ‘undecided’, and we can all fall about laughing.
If Starmer had been leader in 2017 he would not have squandered the gold plated opportunity that May’s terrible campaign presented Labour with. Instead we got another 7 years of Tory thanks to your idiot.
Yeah mate of course he would have bettered the biggest swing to LAB since WW2 achieved despite your idiots best efforts
Stop lying, it wasn't the biggest swing to Labour since WW2.
It was about a 5 point swing, I think? So depending on how you count the 1945 election itself either second or third.
It would however have been their largest swing in an election they went on to lose.
It was a 2.05% Con to Lab swing.
For comparison in 1997 there was a 10% Con to Lab swing.
TLDR: the exit poll and/or the number of projected seats may be wrong. It's best to wait a bit before making conclusive observations and assigning praise/blame.
What the hell is TLDR?
I do hope election night isn’t full of acronyms.
WTF?
IDK
Should there be a site policy banning TLAs?
A pedant notes: neither TLDR, WTF, IDK or TLA are acronyms. They are abbreviations. For it to be an acronym you need to be able to pronounce it. Like 'Nato'.
Yet another pedant notes that I did not call them acronyms
No, but the poster up two embedded posts from you did!
This is true. So you should have replied on that post. If you continue this dreadful sloppiness we may have to see if we can get you a job in CCHQ (which is, of course, an FLA)
Biden doing a June debate had no benefit UNLESS the Dems' Men In Grey Suits made it a condition of support that he performed OK. He didn't - he left everybody's worries about his candidature hanging out there. A June debate meant enough time to change if things went poorly.
Which is where we are at.
The interesting thing is that Trump's faculties are arguably even more shot than Biden's. At least Biden hasn't publically mulled over death by shark versus electrocution. The best outcome is Dems get a new candidate (Dems Without Dementia!) whilst Trump, having got his Kingly immunity, goes undisputedly as mad as King George III.
Yes.
I think that is the thing that is being missed here.
Can you imagine a sane, able to think on their feet, Democrat against Trump?
Go and look at the Fox News interviews with Pete Buttigieg. He's always willing to go on there, and he's so quick on his feet. Now think about him in a debate vs Trump. It could be carnage the other way.
This is just over simple and reductive. There's a thousand ways of being mentally whacky and the majority don't involve senile dementia. Trump's shark shtick is no madder than he always has been and doesn't look like running away uncontrollably downhill in weeks or months like Biden does. It's true that a competent adult could run rings round him, but it always has been. It's just a false equivalence to say there's nothing to choose between him and Biden.
If Starmer had been leader in 2017 he would not have squandered the gold plated opportunity that May’s terrible campaign presented Labour with. Instead we got another 7 years of Tory thanks to your idiot.
Yeah mate of course he would have bettered the biggest swing to LAB since WW2 achieved despite your idiots best efforts
Stop lying, it wasn't the biggest swing to Labour since WW2.
Corbyn getting utterly spanked by the Labour candidate would almost beat a Portillo moment for Jenrick. If I can't have both, either will do.
Stephen Flynn, JRM, Braverman, Cates. Badenoch, Jenrick, Corbyn all losing would be high points.
Exclusive: Leaked messages show Tory campaigners in meltdown over Reform surge
Veteran Tory campaigner tells GBN: "I never had anything like it as a Tory, Reform are sweeping us away.”
Leaked Tory group chat show volunteers panicked about Reform support
Clickbait, but definitely getting interesting now. I won't say expecting, but I've been hoping for some signs of a Reform take off.
Are Putingate and racistgate really depressing the Reform vote, or just the Reform polling share? They are not the same thing. Can the massive show of public support for Reform really be a few cranks - they are finding a lot of cranks if so. Are pollsters paying too much attention to past voting behaviour? Are voters really petrified of a 'Labour supermajority' or do they not care, and are taking the opportunity to vote with their heart? As ever, Reform's performance is a riddle.
My gut says enough people are angry enough at the Tories, or intrigued enough by Reform, to be at the upper end of expectations this time. At the least there has not been a total collapse in polling, so even an underperformance on the day would still suggest sizable voteshare.
Corrected entry scuppered by new fred. Here it is again. Apols for my general incompetence. Thanks for running the comp!
General Election Competition
In how many seats will: 1. Reform beat Conservative (don't count draws)? 51 2. Labour finish 3rd or lower (don't count where they didn't stand)? 78 3. Conservatives lose their deposit? 25 4. Lib Dems lose their deposit? 303 5. Reform lose their deposit? 242 6. Labour lose their deposit? 0
How big: 7. Will the largest winning vote margin be? 33699 8. Will the biggest notional majority defeated be (only count where the incumbent party stands)? 27,210
How small: 9. Will the smallest winning vote margin be (1st - 2nd)? 56 10. Will the smallest gap between 1st and 3rd be? 1125 11. Will the lowest number of votes for any candidate? 11
How many: 12. Parties will be elected (whether or not they take their seats. All true independents are grouped as a single party)? 12 13. Seats will the Conservatives win? 98 14. Seats will Labour win? 415 15. Seats will Lib Dems win? 42 16. Seats will the SNP win? 31 17. Seats will Sinn Fein win? 7 18. Seats will DUP win? 6 19. Seats will Reform come second in? 75
What percentage vote: 20. Will Conservatives get across the UK? 22.3% 21. Will Reform get across the UK? 15.7% 22. Will SNP get in Scotland? 37.3% 23. Will be lowest of any winning candidate? 29.5% 24. Will be highest of any 2nd place candidate? 45.1% 25. Will Speaker get? 78.9%
Answers recorded. You're very bullish on the SNP's chances!
If Starmer had been leader in 2017 he would not have squandered the gold plated opportunity that May’s terrible campaign presented Labour with. Instead we got another 7 years of Tory thanks to your idiot.
Yeah mate of course he would have bettered the biggest swing to LAB since WW2 achieved despite your idiots best efforts
Why do you keep banging on about Corbyn in 2017 but ignore 2019? As I recall, checks notes, he lost both.
Corrected entry scuppered by new fred. Here it is again. Apols for my general incompetence. Thanks for running the comp!
General Election Competition
In how many seats will: 1. Reform beat Conservative (don't count draws)? 51 2. Labour finish 3rd or lower (don't count where they didn't stand)? 78 3. Conservatives lose their deposit? 25 4. Lib Dems lose their deposit? 303 5. Reform lose their deposit? 242 6. Labour lose their deposit? 0
How big: 7. Will the largest winning vote margin be? 33699 8. Will the biggest notional majority defeated be (only count where the incumbent party stands)? 27,210
How small: 9. Will the smallest winning vote margin be (1st - 2nd)? 56 10. Will the smallest gap between 1st and 3rd be? 1125 11. Will the lowest number of votes for any candidate? 11
How many: 12. Parties will be elected (whether or not they take their seats. All true independents are grouped as a single party)? 12 13. Seats will the Conservatives win? 98 14. Seats will Labour win? 415 15. Seats will Lib Dems win? 42 16. Seats will the SNP win? 31 17. Seats will Sinn Fein win? 7 18. Seats will DUP win? 6 19. Seats will Reform come second in? 75
What percentage vote: 20. Will Conservatives get across the UK? 22.3% 21. Will Reform get across the UK? 15.7% 22. Will SNP get in Scotland? 37.3% 23. Will be lowest of any winning candidate? 29.5% 24. Will be highest of any 2nd place candidate? 45.1% 25. Will Speaker get? 78.9%
Answers recorded. You're very bullish on the SNP's chances!
With Sindy support pretty much unchanged I just struggle to believe even a moribund SNP will return to nearly 2010 levels.
Is it just be or are the media really complacent about the election result. The polls obviously point one way, but polls have not opened yet. In 2015, 2017 and 2019 we were surprised by the result. Why do we assume we know what’s about to happen this time?
Exclusive: Leaked messages show Tory campaigners in meltdown over Reform surge
Veteran Tory campaigner tells GBN: "I never had anything like it as a Tory, Reform are sweeping us away.”
Leaked Tory group chat show volunteers panicked about Reform support
Clickbait, but definitely getting interesting now. I won't say expecting, but I've been hoping for some signs of a Reform take off.
Are Putingate and racistgate really depressing the Reform vote, or just the Reform polling share? They are not the same thing. Can the massive show of public support for Reform really be a few cranks - they are finding a lot of cranks if so. Are pollsters paying too much attention to past voting behaviour? Are voters really petrified of a 'Labour supermajority' or do they not care, and are taking the opportunity to vote with their heart? As ever, Reform's performance is a riddle.
My gut says enough people are angry enough at the Tories, or intrigued enough by Reform, to be at the upper end of expectations this time. At the least there has not been a total collapse in polling, so even an underperformance on the day would still suggest sizable voteshare.
Guido had an article earlier about how well Reform are doing on social media:
If Reform overperform it could be due to people who will don't always vote as happened in the Brexit referendum (although some of these people may not have ID)
Just got a new phone - and in porting over seemingly arbitrary bits and bobs from my old phone, I came across a singularly arresting image. Took me a moment to realise what it was. I'm using my one image of the day to share it. Any guesses what or where this is?
Aircraft engine from a crashed WW2 bomber - possibly one of the crashes on Kinder Scout.
Edit, I see I was right, but others got there first!
Just got a new phone - and in porting over seemingly arbitrary bits and bobs from my old phone, I came across a singularly arresting image. Took me a moment to realise what it was. I'm using my one image of the day to share it. Any guesses what or where this is?
Looks like Duplex Cyclone engines - B29?
Bloody hell people on here are good at interpreting wreckage.
TLDR: the exit poll and/or the number of projected seats may be wrong. It's best to wait a bit before making conclusive observations and assigning praise/blame.
What the hell is TLDR?
I do hope election night isn’t full of acronyms.
WTF?
IDK
Should there be a site policy banning TLAs?
A pedant notes: neither TLDR, WTF, IDK or TLA are acronyms. They are abbreviations. For it to be an acronym you need to be able to pronounce it. Like 'Nato'.
Frankly anyone whose answer to the country’s problem is to shout to braying crowds at a rally is probably not the sort of politician we want anywhere near power.
If Starmer had been leader in 2017 he would not have squandered the gold plated opportunity that May’s terrible campaign presented Labour with. Instead we got another 7 years of Tory thanks to your idiot.
Yeah mate of course he would have bettered the biggest swing to LAB since WW2 achieved despite your idiots best efforts
Why do you keep banging on about Corbyn in 2017 but ignore 2019? As I recall, checks notes, he lost both.
I will never understand why 'Look at 2017' is seen as some epic comeback.
No one ignores 2017, the man did well in 2017 and that needs to be noted, but he still lost, and then lost a lot worse later! Crying over the swing he achieved as if that is the answer to any criticism or, you know, noting he was still less popular than Theresa May, is inexplicable.
So looking at the late polling it is generally in the 15 to 19 point lead range 38/39/40 to 21/22/23 sort of range with a little outside those margins. Let's call it a 17 point lead. JpL have best case 153 seats for Tories, let's be generous and say they can get 1997 'at very best' - 165 seats. Looks like they will need the following to achieve that - swing more UNS than proportional and a small on the day swing amongst undecideds (say a 1% swing). Conversely a similar move the other way and very proportional swing and horrors wait in the darkness
Exclusive: Leaked messages show Tory campaigners in meltdown over Reform surge
Veteran Tory campaigner tells GBN: "I never had anything like it as a Tory, Reform are sweeping us away.”
Leaked Tory group chat show volunteers panicked about Reform support
Clickbait, but definitely getting interesting now. I won't say expecting, but I've been hoping for some signs of a Reform take off.
Are Putingate and racistgate really depressing the Reform vote, or just the Reform polling share? They are not the same thing. Can the massive show of public support for Reform really be a few cranks - they are finding a lot of cranks if so. Are pollsters paying too much attention to past voting behaviour? Are voters really petrified of a 'Labour supermajority' or do they not care, and are taking the opportunity to vote with their heart? As ever, Reform's performance is a riddle.
My gut says enough people are angry enough at the Tories, or intrigued enough by Reform, to be at the upper end of expectations this time. At the least there has not been a total collapse in polling, so even an underperformance on the day would still suggest sizable voteshare.
Guido had an article earlier about how well Reform are doing on social media:
If Reform overperform it could be due to people who will don't always vote as happened in the Brexit referendum (although some of these people may not have ID)
That's the biggest threat to Reform - the id thing.
Is it just be or are the media really complacent about the election result. The polls obviously point one way, but polls have not opened yet. In 2015, 2017 and 2019 we were surprised by the result. Why do we assume we know what’s about to happen this time?
2015 and 2019 I wasn't surprised by the result. 2017 the clues were there, but most, including myself, ignored them except in hindsight. There was a Yougov MRP and the testimony of @david_herdson which predicted a Hung Parliament. And polling evidence of a late swing to Labour. So why is everyone so complacent? Because there isn't any evidence pointing to anything other than a sizeable Labour majority (even a late swing means it's a slightly less large one). That's why.
So loo,img at the late polling it is generally in the 15 to 19 point lead range 38/39/40 to 21/22/23 sort of range with a little outside those margins. Let's call it a 17 point lead. JpL have best case 153 seats for Tories, let's be generous and say they can get 1997 'at very best' - 165 seats. Looks like they will need the following to achieve that - swing more UNS than proportional and a small on the day swing amongst undecideds (say a 1% swing). Conversely a similar move the other way and very proportional swing and horrors wait in the darkness
Don't forget the chance of a polling error. If that lead was 4 or 5 points lower would it surprise any of us? The problem with that is that the 'shy' and 'undecided' right-wingers seem to be breaking for Reform. Other than that you are right on the money.
Just got a new phone - and in porting over seemingly arbitrary bits and bobs from my old phone, I came across a singularly arresting image. Took me a moment to realise what it was. I'm using my one image of the day to share it. Any guesses what or where this is?
Looks like Duplex Cyclone engines - B29?
Bloody hell people on here are good at interpreting wreckage.
Practice: we've been staring at Tory polling for months.
Frankly anyone whose answer to the country’s problem is to shout to braying crowds at a rally is probably not the sort of politician we want anywhere near power.
We don't want any politician who speaks at a rally?
Is it just be or are the media really complacent about the election result. The polls obviously point one way, but polls have not opened yet. In 2015, 2017 and 2019 we were surprised by the result. Why do we assume we know what’s about to happen this time?
I'm ******* myself.
I still remember the disappointment on 1992 like it was yesterday. All the evidence suggests otherwise, but you never know: Poor Labour turnout, shy Tories in their droves, one of my conspiracy theories transpires, or perhaps worse than anything else the Tories collapse and Reform take their votes and Labour's RedWall and Farage transitions to Marine Le Pen. Anything could happen, but it probably won't.
Is it just be or are the media really complacent about the election result. The polls obviously point one way, but polls have not opened yet. In 2015, 2017 and 2019 we were surprised by the result. Why do we assume we know what’s about to happen this time?
The difference between a 50 or 200 seat Labour majority isn’t interesting to most people
Is it just be or are the media really complacent about the election result. The polls obviously point one way, but polls have not opened yet. In 2015, 2017 and 2019 we were surprised by the result. Why do we assume we know what’s about to happen this time?
2015 and 2019 I wasn't surprised by the result. 2017 the clues were there, but most, including myself, ignored them except in hindsight. So why is everyone so complacent? Because there isn't any evidence pointing to anything other than a sizeable Labour majority. That's why.
I was surprised by the total collapse of the LDs in 2015 and surprised by the size of Boris majority.
I got to see the 2017 exit poll at around 930pm. I assure you the world had no clue it was so close.
Do you think Donald Trump left the country better or worse than when he took office?
Better 48% Worse 47% ——— Do you think Joe Biden has made the country better or worse since taking office?
Better 36% Worse 57%
That’s extraordinary. Seriously half of the USA population are insane .
It is their Brexit moment where they inflict totally unnecessary self-harm on themselves and then spend years regretting it.
Spice will be added because the Yanks are generally armed to the teeth (there being more guns than people in the US)
Whatever happens, we have got The Gatling gun, and they have not
The arms borne by the people do not include automatic rifles let alone military drones and helicopter gunships. A shooting civil war against the Pentagon is not on the cards.
Just got a new phone - and in porting over seemingly arbitrary bits and bobs from my old phone, I came across a singularly arresting image. Took me a moment to realise what it was. I'm using my one image of the day to share it. Any guesses what or where this is?
Looks like Duplex Cyclone engines - B29?
Bloody hell people on here are good at interpreting wreckage.
Frankly anyone whose answer to the country’s problem is to shout to braying crowds at a rally is probably not the sort of politician we want anywhere near power.
We don't want any politician who speaks at a rally?
Ok.
No. The word was "shouting". Watch any of Farage's speeches and you will get the idea...
Huh? That phrase is used as a retort to a self-interested denial. This was Ofcom, not C4, rejecting the conspiracy theories. Ofcom’s interests do not lie in being seen as toothless.
What Eve Of Poll polls so we have left @wooliedyed ?
Well, I make it Possibly Norstat? Although they look unlikely now Survation final call after 9 and possibly an mrp update if figures require it More in Common should have a final headline VI to release Ipsos tomorrow
That's that I believe unless YG have a final headline poll
What's the feeling around turnout? I still reckon record low, but some people are predicting it will be very high!
I saw that in Bulgaria they had a general election and turnout was 33%, remarkably low (but they have been having many snap early elections in recent years apparently).
Middling in recent terms so 65%? As there are factors pushing and pulling it up and down.
Pushing up:
- 'Change/punishment election' - a tranche of people are highly motivated to get the Tories out and register their anger at them event though the result seems known.
-Reform/Gaza Independents.
Reform's messaging is fairly calibrated at the kind of voter who thinks "they're all the same and crap" and doesn't vote or those who'd normally vote Tory to thwart Labour but are so fed up they might have sat it out.
On the other side, Corbynites or some Muslim voters fixated on Palestine might have sat it out as feel Labour no longer caters to their views, but can register a protest vote. Or in a few places may actively challenge Lab.
- Although the overall result looks known, loads of seats that would normally be safe are individually in doubt. If you can't stand the Tories and live in Surrey, for example, this might be the first election where it's very much worth bothering to vote.
Pushing down:
- Voter ID
- The idea is a foregone conclusion
- Leaders aren't popular but aren't feared. If you don't like Labour you can probably live with Starmer and stop in in a way you wouldn't do with Corbyn. His personal ratings aren't as bad as some would like to think but they're still a bit 'meh'.
Conversely, while Sunak is ludicrously unpopular, he's more pathetic than scary to non-Tories like say Braverman, Truss et al would be.
-Divided 'sides'. Neither Labour or the Tories are one big happy tent at the moment so if your preferred faction in the party you normally vote for lost its internal battles you might decide can't be bothered.
Just got a new phone - and in porting over seemingly arbitrary bits and bobs from my old phone, I came across a singularly arresting image. Took me a moment to realise what it was. I'm using my one image of the day to share it. Any guesses what or where this is?
Looks like Duplex Cyclone engines - B29?
That looks like twin AA in the background.
I'd suggest somewhere used for bombing operations in WW2 where the junk left behind was just buried, and either an airfield or a relief airfield where damaged bombers came back to. Perhaps China or the First Island Chain for Japan - Marianas or Okinawa, but it looks a big landscape, or North Africa for Europe.
Huh? That phrase is used as a retort to a self-interested denial. This was Ofcom, not C4, rejecting the conspiracy theories. Ofcom’s interests do not lie in being seen as toothless.
Ah ha, but if they're all part of the DEEP STATE then [104 pages of Trumpian bollocks]
Is it just be or are the media really complacent about the election result. The polls obviously point one way, but polls have not opened yet. In 2015, 2017 and 2019 we were surprised by the result. Why do we assume we know what’s about to happen this time?
The difference between a 50 or 200 seat Labour majority isn’t interesting to most people
50. The hard left are still there? Let's say 50 of them? Could cause problems later if they still exist.
Do you think Donald Trump left the country better or worse than when he took office?
Better 48% Worse 47% ——— Do you think Joe Biden has made the country better or worse since taking office?
Better 36% Worse 57%
That’s extraordinary. Seriously half of the USA population are insane .
It is their Brexit moment where they inflict totally unnecessary self-harm on themselves and then spend years regretting it.
Spice will be added because the Yanks are generally armed to the teeth (there being more guns than people in the US)
Whatever happens, we have got The Gatling gun, and they have not
The arms borne by the people do not include automatic rifles let alone military drones and helicopter gunships. A shooting civil war against the Pentagon is not on the cards.
Except, of course, the Supreme Court legalised automatic weapons a few weeks back.
If Starmer had been leader in 2017 he would not have squandered the gold plated opportunity that May’s terrible campaign presented Labour with. Instead we got another 7 years of Tory thanks to your idiot.
Yeah mate of course he would have bettered the biggest swing to LAB since WW2 achieved despite your idiots best efforts
He lost. Blaming Starmer is just pathetic whining of a fan of a failed politician who won nothing of note in his lifetime save the Labour leadership. We’ve been paying the price for that for 7 years. Corbyn is a failure and snatched defeat from the jaws of victory when he failed to beat the worst Tory campaign ever - until this one anyway.
Is it just be or are the media really complacent about the election result. The polls obviously point one way, but polls have not opened yet. In 2015, 2017 and 2019 we were surprised by the result. Why do we assume we know what’s about to happen this time?
2015 and 2019 I wasn't surprised by the result. 2017 the clues were there, but most, including myself, ignored them except in hindsight. So why is everyone so complacent? Because there isn't any evidence pointing to anything other than a sizeable Labour majority. That's why.
I was surprised by the total collapse of the LDs in 2015 and surprised by the size of Boris majority.
I got to see the 2017 exit poll at around 930pm. I assure you the world had no clue it was so close.
As I edited. The YouGov MRP had told us the result the weekend before. As had David Herdson. That folk chose to ignore that evidence led to the surprise.
Is it just be or are the media really complacent about the election result. The polls obviously point one way, but polls have not opened yet. In 2015, 2017 and 2019 we were surprised by the result. Why do we assume we know what’s about to happen this time?
2015 and 2019 I wasn't surprised by the result. 2017 the clues were there, but most, including myself, ignored them except in hindsight. So why is everyone so complacent? Because there isn't any evidence pointing to anything other than a sizeable Labour majority. That's why.
I was surprised by the total collapse of the LDs in 2015 and surprised by the size of Boris majority.
I got to see the 2017 exit poll at around 930pm. I assure you the world had no clue it was so close.
The LibDems mistake was not to fully appreciate how much winning through against a crooked voting system relied upon tactical voting. Once coalition cut away the tactical support they received from other anti-Tory parties, their MPs were left high and dry.
We can only hope that tomorrow night will show precisely the opposite trend in effect. Ashdown won a decent group of MPs with a fifth of the vote; if Davey can do the same with just a tenth, it will be a miracle.
Do you think Donald Trump left the country better or worse than when he took office?
Better 48% Worse 47% ——— Do you think Joe Biden has made the country better or worse since taking office?
Better 36% Worse 57%
That’s extraordinary. Seriously half of the USA population are insane .
It is their Brexit moment where they inflict totally unnecessary self-harm on themselves and then spend years regretting it.
Spice will be added because the Yanks are generally armed to the teeth (there being more guns than people in the US)
Whatever happens, we have got The Gatling gun, and they have not
The arms borne by the people do not include automatic rifles let alone military drones and helicopter gunships. A shooting civil war against the Pentagon is not on the cards.
Except, of course, the Supreme Court legalised automatic weapons a few weeks back.
Is it just be or are the media really complacent about the election result. The polls obviously point one way, but polls have not opened yet. In 2015, 2017 and 2019 we were surprised by the result. Why do we assume we know what’s about to happen this time?
I agree. With Labour's poll share declining into the high 30s we're moving into very uncertain territory. There's many a slip 'twixt cup and lip.
Comments
https://www.peakdistrictaircrashes.co.uk/category/peak-district/
Incidentally, I was once walking on the eastern edges and came across a corroded shell - apparently a left-over from when the area was used as a practice range. I left it well alone.
They managed to land two blows on Lab-tax bomb and supermajority.
Lab have not landed any blows on Con but they didn`t need to.
Had Rishi managed to get a flight off, he would have avoided leaking votes to Reform like they have. They got lucky with Nick Robinson getting Farage to support Putin and the Channel 4 racism video or things could have been a lot worse.
I am going to look like an idiot tomorrow night but I think polls are undercooking Con and overcooking Lab.
Surprisingly evocative and worth a trip.
And the worst case? Well...
So many people have said that the ReFUKers are going to come home to the Tories. No, they are not. They are in it to win it (conservatism). Farage BFFing Putin dampened their stretch, it didn't damage their core vote.
With fUKers getting in the Tories way in seat after seat, they will only accelerate the fall of seats.
They are also are Reform to the Official Unionists Conservative. Set up because the Official Unionists had become leftist pinko surrender monkeys.
Another (easier) way of saying NOTA on the day and bollocks to the lot of them is just simply not turning up to vote.
https://x.com/stevenedginton/status/1808544838956048614
Exclusive: Leaked messages show Tory campaigners in meltdown over Reform surge
Veteran Tory campaigner tells GBN: "I never had anything like it as a Tory, Reform are sweeping us away.”
Leaked Tory group chat show volunteers panicked about Reform support
But if the Dems let him run, then they will deserve the crushing defeat that follows
I saw that in Bulgaria they had a general election and turnout was 33%, remarkably low (but they have been having many snap early elections in recent years apparently).
watch his drivetime for a nap.I think they'll be comfortably over 10 though, and 4-5 above LDs. Should still be worth a couple of seats.
They are dead serious about winning Stratford
(I could not resist slipping in another TLA)
Nation in shock!
There is no point having lots of devoted fans if you have lots of devoted enemies as well. FPTP favours the beige, which is why someone whose admirers think is dull is apparently about to become Prime Minister with an absurd majority.
It would however have been their largest swing in an election they went on to lose.
I happen to be pretty bullish about Reform's vote share chances, but 'Oooh, he got a big crowd' doesn't show that they will do well one way or the other.
A special mini-episode treat - the wit and wisdom of Nigel Farage (is this right? Ed), as channelled by the Eye’s Craig Brown and Lewis Macleod. Find out what Nigel REALLY thinks about good old-fashioned British maths.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Eteo_cuXh7Q
John Alderdice takes the LD whip in the Lords, but aiui that's his personal decision rather than anything to do with the party.
There'd need to be some specific benefit to them from having Long + Eastwood and/or Farry caucusing with the LDs. Maybe a shadow cabinet post (other than shadow NI sec) might be enough, but my impression is that it's not something APNI have been considering - so shouldn't be taken for granted by the LD.
There are certain cards and stickers which are sometimes used - classically YPLAC ("You Parked Like a C*nt", or a less rude version thereof), and can be overly blunt. I don't think that works very often.
I have been looking for alternatives to put under windscreen wipers of people who block pedestrian access at our local hospital with their motor vehicles (eg park across pedestrian drop kerbs), to educate most who are mainly forgetful not malicious. I came across this one today.
Lab 38 / 410
Con 22 / 134
LD 13 / 53
Ref 14 / 2
Grn 5 / 3
SNP 2 / 22
Other 6 / 26 (18 NI, 4 PC, Speaker, Corbyn, Dewsbury + 1)
Are Putingate and racistgate really depressing the Reform vote, or just the Reform polling share? They are not the same thing. Can the massive show of public support for Reform really be a few cranks - they are finding a lot of cranks if so. Are pollsters paying too much attention to past voting behaviour? Are voters really petrified of a 'Labour supermajority' or do they not care, and are taking the opportunity to vote with their heart? As ever, Reform's performance is a riddle.
Next he’ll be telling us that his canvassers are still allowed to mark people down as ‘undecided’, and we can all fall about laughing.
For comparison in 1997 there was a 10% Con to Lab swing.
Seriously, what is it that 15% to 20% of the population see in him? 🤷♂️
Spice will be added because the Yanks are generally armed to the teeth (there being more guns than people in the US)
They weren’t all right.
https://order-order.com/2024/07/03/farage-and-reform-reign-supreme-on-social-media/
If Reform overperform it could be due to people who will don't always vote as happened in the Brexit referendum (although some of these people may not have ID)
Edit, I see I was right, but others got there first!
No one ignores 2017, the man did well in 2017 and that needs to be noted, but he still lost, and then lost a lot worse later! Crying over the swing he achieved as if that is the answer to any criticism or, you know, noting he was still less popular than Theresa May, is inexplicable.
Conversely a similar move the other way and very proportional swing and horrors wait in the darkness
So why is everyone so complacent?
Because there isn't any evidence pointing to anything other than a sizeable Labour majority (even a late swing means it's a slightly less large one).
That's why.
Ok.
I still remember the disappointment on 1992 like it was yesterday. All the evidence suggests otherwise, but you never know: Poor Labour turnout, shy Tories in their droves, one of my conspiracy theories transpires, or perhaps worse than anything else the Tories collapse and Reform take their votes and Labour's RedWall and Farage transitions to Marine Le Pen. Anything could happen, but it probably won't.
Personally I wish we didn’t have an exit poll as it ruins some of the drama.
I got to see the 2017 exit poll at around 930pm. I assure you the world had no clue it was so close.
The Gatling gun, and they have not
The arms borne by the people do not include automatic rifles let alone military drones and helicopter gunships. A shooting civil war against the Pentagon is not on the cards.
Possibly Norstat? Although they look unlikely now
Survation final call after 9 and possibly an mrp update if figures require it
More in Common should have a final headline VI to release
Ipsos tomorrow
That's that I believe unless YG have a final headline poll
Pushing up:
- 'Change/punishment election' - a tranche of people are highly motivated to get the Tories out and register their anger at them event though the result seems known.
-Reform/Gaza Independents.
Reform's messaging is fairly calibrated at the kind of voter who thinks "they're all the same and crap" and doesn't vote or those who'd normally vote Tory to thwart Labour but are so fed up they might have sat it out.
On the other side, Corbynites or some Muslim voters fixated on Palestine might have sat it out as feel Labour no longer caters to their views, but can register a protest vote. Or in a few places may actively challenge Lab.
- Although the overall result looks known, loads of seats that would normally be safe are individually in doubt. If you can't stand the Tories and live in Surrey, for example, this might be the first election where it's very much worth bothering to vote.
Pushing down:
- Voter ID
- The idea is a foregone conclusion
- Leaders aren't popular but aren't feared. If you don't like Labour you can probably live with Starmer and stop in in a way you wouldn't do with Corbyn. His personal ratings aren't as bad as some would like to think but they're still a bit 'meh'.
Conversely, while Sunak is ludicrously unpopular, he's more pathetic than scary to non-Tories like say Braverman, Truss et al would be.
-Divided 'sides'. Neither Labour or the Tories are one big happy tent at the moment so if your preferred faction in the party you normally vote for lost its internal battles you might decide can't be bothered.
So lands somewhere in the middle I think.
I'd suggest somewhere used for bombing operations in WW2 where the junk left behind was just buried, and either an airfield or a relief airfield where damaged bombers came back to. Perhaps China or the First Island Chain for Japan - Marianas or Okinawa, but it looks a big landscape, or North Africa for Europe.
(Without Googling)
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-68419279
That folk chose to ignore that evidence led to the surprise.
We can only hope that tomorrow night will show precisely the opposite trend in effect. Ashdown won a decent group of MPs with a fifth of the vote; if Davey can do the same with just a tenth, it will be a miracle.