Biden will quit before the end of July, possibly much sooner than that
It's gonna be Kamala Harris
Biden won’t resign as President IMO.
If Harris becomes President now, the Republican house won’t confirm a VP as replacement - because should anything happen to Harris, Republican Speaker Mike Johnson would then be acting President.
They will let Biden serve out the rest of his term.
Yes, it’s the VP that needs confirmation but I think that the risk of Harris being able to serve 5 months is one they’ll take. (The extract below I reproduce because I was going to make a completely different point which was wrong but I’ve spent so much time on it I’ll keep it)
Amendment XXV Section 1. In case of the removal of the President from office or of his death or resignation, the Vice President shall become President. Section 2. Whenever there is a vacancy in the office of the Vice President, the President shall nominate a Vice President who shall take office upon confirmation by a majority vote of both Houses of Congress.
I suppose there are two issues. One is whether he is merely very old and now struggles as is too slow in public, pressured situations where can't take time to think. Or there's something seriously wrong with Biden. Either way he shouldn't run. If something's seriously medically wrong then he has to stand down in favour of Harris, who either becomes nominee or nominates the person who will be as VP.
If he's just old and frail to the point he's not up to the usual rigours of a presidency and campaign then there's an exit strategy. He gives a big emotional speech - which he is capable of doing as a setpiece - saying he's OK, but realises he can't go on for four more years and it's clear has lost the confidence of his party as nominee and won't be standing but will carry on till January. Tries to garner some sympathy as acting out of duty.
Neither is particularly good optics for the Democrats, but we are where we are. They have to hope the optics of four years of untrammeled Trump are worse and whoever takes his place is a good campaigner.
Biden will quit before the end of July, possibly much sooner than that
It's gonna be Kamala Harris
Biden won’t resign as President IMO.
If Harris becomes President now, the Republican house won’t confirm a VP as replacement - because should anything happen to Harris, Republican Speaker Mike Johnson would then be acting President.
They will let Biden serve out the rest of his term.
Yes, it’s the VP that needs confirmation but I think that the risk of Harris being able to serve 5 months is one they’ll take. (The extract below I reproduce because I was going to make a completely different point which was wrong but I’ve spent so much time on it I’ll keep it)
Amendment XXV Section 1. In case of the removal of the President from office or of his death or resignation, the Vice President shall become President. Section 2. Whenever there is a vacancy in the office of the Vice President, the President shall nominate a Vice President who shall take office upon confirmation by a majority vote of both Houses of Congress.
But no Dem VP to certify election results? That seems a HUGE risk.
No longer would we refer to the Portillo moment. Henceforth and in perpetuity it would be known as the Sunak moment.
Were you up for Sunak?
It would also be fitting if all those former Tory leaders who were responsible in one way or another for the destruction of their party - Sunak, Truss and of course IDS for bringing in the stupid membership voting rules - were themselves forced to share the pain of so many of their, sometimes decent, backbench MPs.
I think we need to decide if a 'Portillo moment' is:
a ) the defeat of a prominent politician, or b ) the *unexpected* defeat of a prominent politician.
So in the case of (b) e.g. Jeremy Hunt losing is not a Portillo Moment. Sunak losing would be.
Or the unexpected defeat of a disliked, prominent politician, and I'm not sure Hunt or Sunak are really disliked. Gove was but is not standing, Suella would qualify, and maybe JRM if he counts as an unexpected defeat.
Was Portillo *that* disliked? Genuine question; I was 16 at the time, relatively politically aware but not in the weeds like we are here.
Suella would 100% qualify. As would Truss and I think JRM too.
He was a bete noir at the time. Viscerally disliked by many. Easy to forget in the light of his subsequent career. Rishi doesn't come close.
I think Truss or JRM would be closer to a Portillo moment than Sunak. It was the seeming arrogance and entitlement of Portillo that made him so disliked.
It's quite amazing the way he's turned public perception of himself around by taking a few train rides lol...
It wasn't just the trains. First he had to show some understanding of why he had lost, and he then took part in that reality show where he lived the life of a single parent on benefits and came to understand what a hard existence it was. Then he started doing the trains.
I quite liked his double act with Dianne Abbott as well.
Oh yeah, Diane did quite a lot to "rehabilitate" his reputation, as next to her (and whatever loopy guests they had on) Portillo was usually the voice of reason on that show...
Also next to Neill's 'sneering haemorrhoid face' (copyright: M Tucker) his rubbery perma-grin looked quite appealing.
I don’t know why you edited your earlier post revealing your age. Nothing to be embarrassed about, I was going to compliment you for having achieved so much at such a relatively young age. So many jobs, become a published expert on things, being interviewed all since 1981. You are an inspiration.
No longer would we refer to the Portillo moment. Henceforth and in perpetuity it would be known as the Sunak moment.
Were you up for Sunak?
It would also be fitting if all those former Tory leaders who were responsible in one way or another for the destruction of their party - Sunak, Truss and of course IDS for bringing in the stupid membership voting rules - were themselves forced to share the pain of so many of their, sometimes decent, backbench MPs.
I think we need to decide if a 'Portillo moment' is:
a ) the defeat of a prominent politician, or b ) the *unexpected* defeat of a prominent politician.
So in the case of (b) e.g. Jeremy Hunt losing is not a Portillo Moment. Sunak losing would be.
Or the unexpected defeat of a disliked, prominent politician, and I'm not sure Hunt or Sunak are really disliked. Gove was but is not standing, Suella would qualify, and maybe JRM if he counts as an unexpected defeat.
Was Portillo *that* disliked? Genuine question; I was 16 at the time, relatively politically aware but not in the weeds like we are here.
Suella would 100% qualify. As would Truss and I think JRM too.
He was a bete noir at the time. Viscerally disliked by many. Easy to forget in the light of his subsequent career. Rishi doesn't come close.
I’m a similar age to @Ghedebrav but can remember Portillo being hated.
He did make a very good concession speech on the night in 1997. I had friends who said he drew the sting out of the defeat.
Jeremy Hunt is widely disliked but I think slightly unfairly. He’s quite popular in his constituency.
Sunak is for many tories, including my Surrey friend, the one who stabbed her beloved Boris in the back. She strongly dislikes him. He has also come out with some disgusting dog-whistle gutter politics recently so I hope he gets politically crushed, even though he’s not to blame for this tory mess.
No longer would we refer to the Portillo moment. Henceforth and in perpetuity it would be known as the Sunak moment.
Were you up for Sunak?
It would also be fitting if all those former Tory leaders who were responsible in one way or another for the destruction of their party - Sunak, Truss and of course IDS for bringing in the stupid membership voting rules - were themselves forced to share the pain of so many of their, sometimes decent, backbench MPs.
I think we need to decide if a 'Portillo moment' is:
a ) the defeat of a prominent politician, or b ) the *unexpected* defeat of a prominent politician.
So in the case of (b) e.g. Jeremy Hunt losing is not a Portillo Moment. Sunak losing would be.
Or the unexpected defeat of a disliked, prominent politician, and I'm not sure Hunt or Sunak are really disliked. Gove was but is not standing, Suella would qualify, and maybe JRM if he counts as an unexpected defeat.
Was Portillo *that* disliked? Genuine question; I was 16 at the time, relatively politically aware but not in the weeds like we are here.
Suella would 100% qualify. As would Truss and I think JRM too.
He was a bete noir at the time. Viscerally disliked by many. Easy to forget in the light of his subsequent career. Rishi doesn't come close.
I think Truss or JRM would be closer to a Portillo moment than Sunak. It was the seeming arrogance and entitlement of Portillo that made him so disliked.
It's quite amazing the way he's turned public perception of himself around by taking a few train rides lol...
It wasn't just the trains. First he had to show some understanding of why he had lost, and he then took part in that reality show where he lived the life of a single parent on benefits and came to understand what a hard existence it was. Then he started doing the trains.
He did apologise nicely at the count, didn't he?
He did make a very good concession speech on the night in 1997. I had friends who said he drew the sting out of their victory celebrations.
Jeremy Hunt is widely disliked but I think slightly unfairly. He’s quite popular in his constituency.
Rishi Sunak is for many tories, including my Surrey friend, the one who stabbed her beloved Boris in the back. She strongly dislikes him. He has also come out with some disgusting dog-whistle gutter politics recently so I hope he gets politically crushed, even though he’s not to blame for this tory mess.
Liz Truss losing would be delicious.
Hopefully everyone can agree though that the one defeat which would be worth cheering across the political spectrum is Johnny Mercer. What a shit.
Johnny Mercer is the one for me as well, horrible man
If Sir Christopher Chope got his come uppance I would die of pleasure, but I am sure we are both safe.
For a long time, Opinium tended to have the smallest Labour leads because of its methodology. On 24 May, after the GE was called, they had Labour on a 14pp lead. So this lead of 20 looks pretty significant to me.
We've had endless months of left-leaning posters explaining why the Opinium methodology is suspect. It's kinda hilarious to now see them as the most Labour-favourable pollster.
To be fair, Opinium were very clear about their methodology and that reasons why they expected their results would come in to line with the other pollsters towards the end of the campaign.
For a long time, Opinium tended to have the smallest Labour leads because of its methodology. On 24 May, after the GE was called, they had Labour on a 14pp lead. So this lead of 20 looks pretty significant to me.
We've had endless months of left-leaning posters explaining why the Opinium methodology is suspect. It's kinda hilarious to now see them as the most Labour-favourable pollster.
Have we? Who are these left-leaning people who have been posting endlessly about Opinium?
I've changed my mind. Originally my hope for the greatest defenestration was either JRM or Truss. But no.
I'd forgotten Robert Jenrick. The most corrupt and unpleasant slimeball of the lot. I shall be saving a large slug of whisky for the moment, hopefully, that he goes.
It took a whole day to calm down my Surrey tory friend after Jenrick ordered the painting over of the murals in the children’s migrant building. She was crying about it.
Biden will quit before the end of July, possibly much sooner than that
It's gonna be Kamala Harris
Biden won’t resign as President IMO.
If Harris becomes President now, the Republican house won’t confirm a VP as replacement - because should anything happen to Harris, Republican Speaker Mike Johnson would then be acting President.
They will let Biden serve out the rest of his term.
Yes, it’s the VP that needs confirmation but I think that the risk of Harris being able to serve 5 months is one they’ll take. (The extract below I reproduce because I was going to make a completely different point which was wrong but I’ve spent so much time on it I’ll keep it)
Amendment XXV Section 1. In case of the removal of the President from office or of his death or resignation, the Vice President shall become President. Section 2. Whenever there is a vacancy in the office of the Vice President, the President shall nominate a Vice President who shall take office upon confirmation by a majority vote of both Houses of Congress.
But no Dem VP to certify election results? That seems a HUGE risk.
It would be overseen by the President Pro Tempore of the Senate, who is also a Democrat.
Has anyone mentioned The Times focus group broadcast yesterday - I only heard replay overnight.
Consisted of undecided voters in safe Con seats (from 50th to 150th safest).
Throughout the focus group, everyone essentially criticised all parties. Then at the end the moderator (from JL Partners) asked each person who they thought they would most likely vote for. Every single person said Con. Moderator said you could not have told this from earlier comments.
Moderator conclusion is that Con vote will hold up better than polls suggest in safe Con seats. Still a landslide but not a wipeout.
No longer would we refer to the Portillo moment. Henceforth and in perpetuity it would be known as the Sunak moment.
Were you up for Sunak?
It would also be fitting if all those former Tory leaders who were responsible in one way or another for the destruction of their party - Sunak, Truss and of course IDS for bringing in the stupid membership voting rules - were themselves forced to share the pain of so many of their, sometimes decent, backbench MPs.
I think we need to decide if a 'Portillo moment' is:
a ) the defeat of a prominent politician, or b ) the *unexpected* defeat of a prominent politician.
So in the case of (b) e.g. Jeremy Hunt losing is not a Portillo Moment. Sunak losing would be.
Or the unexpected defeat of a disliked, prominent politician, and I'm not sure Hunt or Sunak are really disliked. Gove was but is not standing, Suella would qualify, and maybe JRM if he counts as an unexpected defeat.
Was Portillo *that* disliked? Genuine question; I was 16 at the time, relatively politically aware but not in the weeds like we are here.
Suella would 100% qualify. As would Truss and I think JRM too.
He was a bete noir at the time. Viscerally disliked by many. Easy to forget in the light of his subsequent career. Rishi doesn't come close.
No longer would we refer to the Portillo moment. Henceforth and in perpetuity it would be known as the Sunak moment.
Were you up for Sunak?
It would also be fitting if all those former Tory leaders who were responsible in one way or another for the destruction of their party - Sunak, Truss and of course IDS for bringing in the stupid membership voting rules - were themselves forced to share the pain of so many of their, sometimes decent, backbench MPs.
I think we need to decide if a 'Portillo moment' is:
a ) the defeat of a prominent politician, or b ) the *unexpected* defeat of a prominent politician.
So in the case of (b) e.g. Jeremy Hunt losing is not a Portillo Moment. Sunak losing would be.
Or the unexpected defeat of a disliked, prominent politician, and I'm not sure Hunt or Sunak are really disliked. Gove was but is not standing, Suella would qualify, and maybe JRM if he counts as an unexpected defeat.
Was Portillo *that* disliked? Genuine question; I was 16 at the time, relatively politically aware but not in the weeds like we are here.
Suella would 100% qualify. As would Truss and I think JRM too.
He was a bete noir at the time. Viscerally disliked by many. Easy to forget in the light of his subsequent career. Rishi doesn't come close.
I think Truss or JRM would be closer to a Portillo moment than Sunak. It was the seeming arrogance and entitlement of Portillo that made him so disliked.
It's quite amazing the way he's turned public perception of himself around by taking a few train rides lol...
It wasn't just the trains. First he had to show some understanding of why he had lost, and he then took part in that reality show where he lived the life of a single parent on benefits and came to understand what a hard existence it was. Then he started doing the trains.
He did apologise nicely at the count, didn't he?
He did make a very good concession speech on the night in 1997. I had friends who said he drew the sting out of their victory celebrations.
Jeremy Hunt is widely disliked but I think slightly unfairly. He’s quite popular in his constituency.
Rishi Sunak is for many tories, including my Surrey friend, the one who stabbed her beloved Boris in the back. She strongly dislikes him. He has also come out with some disgusting dog-whistle gutter politics recently so I hope he gets politically crushed, even though he’s not to blame for this tory mess.
Liz Truss losing would be delicious.
Hopefully everyone can agree though that the one defeat which would be worth cheering across the political spectrum is Johnny Mercer. What a shit.
The hatred for Portillo was a bit confected by the media.
I think the thing about the Portillo moment was more the momentum shift. He was the coming man, the heir apparent of the Tory right, on the rise in the ranks, phone lines set up. Cruelly cut off in his ascendancy.
To my mind that makes the closest equivalents to Portillo this time probably Badenoch or Braverman. Both of whom I think are pretty safe.
I’m ambivalent about Badenoch but Braverman is one of the most awful human beings ever to have been elected to the House of Commons. Her ambition is exceeded only by her treachery and both are far in excess of her talent.
I don’t know why you edited your earlier post revealing your age. Nothing to be embarrassed about, I was going to compliment you for having achieved so much at such a relatively young age. So many jobs, become a published expert on things, being interviewed all since 1981. You are an inspiration.
Lol sorry it was because I repeated myself about Sunak. A cut and paste issue with blockquotes.
1997 was my first vote and I remember the Portillo moment well. It was Stephen Twigg’s expression which was so lovely too: a sign of a new broom.
"Final fuel delivery marks end of the line for coal
The UK's last remaining coal-fired power station is entering its final days. The plant at Ratcliffe-on Soar, Nottinghamshire, is a prominent landmark for rail passengers on the Midlands Main Line and M1 traffic passing close by. It began generating electricity 57 years ago - in 1967 - with a capacity of 2,000 megawatts, enough to power two million homes. However, it will close on 30 September as part of government plans to end coal production in the UK."
President Biden told a key ally that his campaign may be unsalvageable if he can’t convince the public he’s up for the job.
NYT
The betting markets have moved decisively against him.
I wonder if there is VALUE in beting on Kamala to win in 2028?
If she becomes the Dem Nom, then wins in 2024, all she has to do is perform reasonably well and she's surely odds-on for a second term?
I reckon there's value betting on Trump to win in 2028. Or possibly on one of his children. If he wins this year it seems likely he'll remove term limits and ensure the 2028 election is a foregone conclusion. He's not going to make the same mistakes twice.
Trump should nominate Ivanka as his running mate. That is the only way the next generation can enter the White House.
Yeh, why not make it even more obvious what he's planning.
For a long time, Opinium tended to have the smallest Labour leads because of its methodology. On 24 May, after the GE was called, they had Labour on a 14pp lead. So this lead of 20 looks pretty significant to me.
We've had endless months of left-leaning posters explaining why the Opinium methodology is suspect. It's kinda hilarious to now see them as the most Labour-favourable pollster.
To be fair, Opinium were very clear about their methodology and that reasons why they expected their results would come in to line with the other pollsters towards the end of the campaign.
Indeed that they may well swing to Labour as DKs decided and were no longer allocated to Con.
Biden will quit before the end of July, possibly much sooner than that
It's gonna be Kamala Harris
Biden won’t resign as President IMO.
If Harris becomes President now, the Republican house won’t confirm a VP as replacement - because should anything happen to Harris, Republican Speaker Mike Johnson would then be acting President.
They will let Biden serve out the rest of his term.
Yes, it’s the VP that needs confirmation but I think that the risk of Harris being able to serve 5 months is one they’ll take. (The extract below I reproduce because I was going to make a completely different point which was wrong but I’ve spent so much time on it I’ll keep it)
Amendment XXV Section 1. In case of the removal of the President from office or of his death or resignation, the Vice President shall become President. Section 2. Whenever there is a vacancy in the office of the Vice President, the President shall nominate a Vice President who shall take office upon confirmation by a majority vote of both Houses of Congress.
But no Dem VP to certify election results? That seems a HUGE risk.
It would be overseen by the President Pro Tempore of the Senate, who is also a Democrat.
Ah, thanks for the clarification! That is very helpful.
I still think it might be better to have it as VP Harris. It helps her be seen more as ‘Change’ whilst also being able to take the credit of incumbency in the current administration.
I've changed my mind. Originally my hope for the greatest defenestration was either JRM or Truss. But no.
I'd forgotten Robert Jenrick. The most corrupt and unpleasant slimeball of the lot. I shall be saving a large slug of whisky for the moment, hopefully, that he goes.
How is it everyone forgets Fabricant?
We don't, but he's so insignificant his scalp isn't worth having. Especially considering the state of the thing covering it.
No longer would we refer to the Portillo moment. Henceforth and in perpetuity it would be known as the Sunak moment.
Were you up for Sunak?
It would also be fitting if all those former Tory leaders who were responsible in one way or another for the destruction of their party - Sunak, Truss and of course IDS for bringing in the stupid membership voting rules - were themselves forced to share the pain of so many of their, sometimes decent, backbench MPs.
I think we need to decide if a 'Portillo moment' is:
a ) the defeat of a prominent politician, or b ) the *unexpected* defeat of a prominent politician.
So in the case of (b) e.g. Jeremy Hunt losing is not a Portillo Moment. Sunak losing would be.
Or the unexpected defeat of a disliked, prominent politician, and I'm not sure Hunt or Sunak are really disliked. Gove was but is not standing, Suella would qualify, and maybe JRM if he counts as an unexpected defeat.
Was Portillo *that* disliked? Genuine question; I was 16 at the time, relatively politically aware but not in the weeds like we are here.
Suella would 100% qualify. As would Truss and I think JRM too.
He was a bete noir at the time. Viscerally disliked by many. Easy to forget in the light of his subsequent career. Rishi doesn't come close.
No longer would we refer to the Portillo moment. Henceforth and in perpetuity it would be known as the Sunak moment.
Were you up for Sunak?
It would also be fitting if all those former Tory leaders who were responsible in one way or another for the destruction of their party - Sunak, Truss and of course IDS for bringing in the stupid membership voting rules - were themselves forced to share the pain of so many of their, sometimes decent, backbench MPs.
I think we need to decide if a 'Portillo moment' is:
a ) the defeat of a prominent politician, or b ) the *unexpected* defeat of a prominent politician.
So in the case of (b) e.g. Jeremy Hunt losing is not a Portillo Moment. Sunak losing would be.
Or the unexpected defeat of a disliked, prominent politician, and I'm not sure Hunt or Sunak are really disliked. Gove was but is not standing, Suella would qualify, and maybe JRM if he counts as an unexpected defeat.
Was Portillo *that* disliked? Genuine question; I was 16 at the time, relatively politically aware but not in the weeds like we are here.
Suella would 100% qualify. As would Truss and I think JRM too.
He was a bete noir at the time. Viscerally disliked by many. Easy to forget in the light of his subsequent career. Rishi doesn't come close.
I think Truss or JRM would be closer to a Portillo moment than Sunak. It was the seeming arrogance and entitlement of Portillo that made him so disliked.
It's quite amazing the way he's turned public perception of himself around by taking a few train rides lol...
It wasn't just the trains. First he had to show some understanding of why he had lost, and he then took part in that reality show where he lived the life of a single parent on benefits and came to understand what a hard existence it was. Then he started doing the trains.
He did apologise nicely at the count, didn't he?
He did make a very good concession speech on the night in 1997. I had friends who said he drew the sting out of their victory celebrations.
Jeremy Hunt is widely disliked but I think slightly unfairly. He’s quite popular in his constituency.
Rishi Sunak is for many tories, including my Surrey friend, the one who stabbed her beloved Boris in the back. She strongly dislikes him. He has also come out with some disgusting dog-whistle gutter politics recently so I hope he gets politically crushed, even though he’s not to blame for this tory mess.
Liz Truss losing would be delicious.
Hopefully everyone can agree though that the one defeat which would be worth cheering across the political spectrum is Johnny Mercer. What a shit.
The hatred for Portillo was a bit confected by the media.
I’ve met him a few times and he was very genial.
I guess he became the fall guy for Thatcherism.
Part of the dislike was how false he came across in UberThatcherite mode.
When he dropped that, and became himself he became much more likeable.
Has anyone mentioned The Times focus group broadcast yesterday - I only heard replay overnight.
Consisted of undecided voters in safe Con seats (from 50th to 150th safest).
Throughout the focus group, everyone essentially criticised all parties. Then at the end the moderator (from JL Partners) asked each person who they thought they would most likely vote for. Every single person said Con. Moderator said you could not have told this from earlier comments.
Moderator conclusion is that Con vote will hold up better than polls suggest in safe Con seats. Still a landslide but not a wipeout.
Has anyone mentioned The Times focus group broadcast yesterday - I only heard replay overnight.
Consisted of undecided voters in safe Con seats (from 50th to 150th safest).
Throughout the focus group, everyone essentially criticised all parties. Then at the end the moderator (from JL Partners) asked each person who they thought they would most likely vote for. Every single person said Con. Moderator said you could not have told this from earlier comments.
Moderator conclusion is that Con vote will hold up better than polls suggest in safe Con seats. Still a landslide but not a wipeout.
I think if you’re undecided at this point you’re basically a Conservative. Small C and Big C.
I don’t know why you edited your earlier post revealing your age. Nothing to be embarrassed about, I was going to compliment you for having achieved so much at such a relatively young age. So many jobs, become a published expert on things, being interviewed all since 1981. You are an inspiration.
Lol sorry it was because I repeated myself about Sunak. A cut and paste issue with blockquotes.
1997 was my first vote and I remember the Portillo moment well. It was Stephen Twigg’s expression which was so lovely too: a sign of a new broom.
I remember that too - completely startled, a little bit rabbit in the headlights and not surprisingly.
President Biden told a key ally that his campaign may be unsalvageable if he can’t convince the public he’s up for the job.
NYT
The betting markets have moved decisively against him.
I wonder if there is VALUE in beting on Kamala to win in 2028?
If she becomes the Dem Nom, then wins in 2024, all she has to do is perform reasonably well and she's surely odds-on for a second term?
I reckon there's value betting on Trump to win in 2028. Or possibly on one of his children. If he wins this year it seems likely he'll remove term limits and ensure the 2028 election is a foregone conclusion. He's not going to make the same mistakes twice.
Trump should nominate Ivanka as his running mate. That is the only way the next generation can enter the White House.
Yeh, why not make it even more obvious what he's planning.
tbf there is probably more substance in Ivanka than most GOP VP candidates.
No longer would we refer to the Portillo moment. Henceforth and in perpetuity it would be known as the Sunak moment.
Were you up for Sunak?
It would also be fitting if all those former Tory leaders who were responsible in one way or another for the destruction of their party - Sunak, Truss and of course IDS for bringing in the stupid membership voting rules - were themselves forced to share the pain of so many of their, sometimes decent, backbench MPs.
I think we need to decide if a 'Portillo moment' is:
a ) the defeat of a prominent politician, or b ) the *unexpected* defeat of a prominent politician.
So in the case of (b) e.g. Jeremy Hunt losing is not a Portillo Moment. Sunak losing would be.
Or the unexpected defeat of a disliked, prominent politician, and I'm not sure Hunt or Sunak are really disliked. Gove was but is not standing, Suella would qualify, and maybe JRM if he counts as an unexpected defeat.
Was Portillo *that* disliked? Genuine question; I was 16 at the time, relatively politically aware but not in the weeds like we are here.
Suella would 100% qualify. As would Truss and I think JRM too.
He was a bete noir at the time. Viscerally disliked by many. Easy to forget in the light of his subsequent career. Rishi doesn't come close.
No longer would we refer to the Portillo moment. Henceforth and in perpetuity it would be known as the Sunak moment.
Were you up for Sunak?
It would also be fitting if all those former Tory leaders who were responsible in one way or another for the destruction of their party - Sunak, Truss and of course IDS for bringing in the stupid membership voting rules - were themselves forced to share the pain of so many of their, sometimes decent, backbench MPs.
I think we need to decide if a 'Portillo moment' is:
a ) the defeat of a prominent politician, or b ) the *unexpected* defeat of a prominent politician.
So in the case of (b) e.g. Jeremy Hunt losing is not a Portillo Moment. Sunak losing would be.
Or the unexpected defeat of a disliked, prominent politician, and I'm not sure Hunt or Sunak are really disliked. Gove was but is not standing, Suella would qualify, and maybe JRM if he counts as an unexpected defeat.
Was Portillo *that* disliked? Genuine question; I was 16 at the time, relatively politically aware but not in the weeds like we are here.
Suella would 100% qualify. As would Truss and I think JRM too.
He was a bete noir at the time. Viscerally disliked by many. Easy to forget in the light of his subsequent career. Rishi doesn't come close.
I think Truss or JRM would be closer to a Portillo moment than Sunak. It was the seeming arrogance and entitlement of Portillo that made him so disliked.
It's quite amazing the way he's turned public perception of himself around by taking a few train rides lol...
It wasn't just the trains. First he had to show some understanding of why he had lost, and he then took part in that reality show where he lived the life of a single parent on benefits and came to understand what a hard existence it was. Then he started doing the trains.
He did apologise nicely at the count, didn't he?
He did make a very good concession speech on the night in 1997. I had friends who said he drew the sting out of their victory celebrations.
Jeremy Hunt is widely disliked but I think slightly unfairly. He’s quite popular in his constituency.
Rishi Sunak is for many tories, including my Surrey friend, the one who stabbed her beloved Boris in the back. She strongly dislikes him. He has also come out with some disgusting dog-whistle gutter politics recently so I hope he gets politically crushed, even though he’s not to blame for this tory mess.
Liz Truss losing would be delicious.
Hopefully everyone can agree though that the one defeat which would be worth cheering across the political spectrum is Johnny Mercer. What a shit.
The hatred for Portillo was a bit confected by the media.
I’ve met him a few times and he was very genial.
I guess he became the fall guy for Thatcherism.
Part of the dislike was how false he came across in UberThatcherite mode.
When he dropped that, and became himself he became much more likeable.
Remember he was hiding his homosexuality for many years (very sad, but that's what he felt he needed to do)
Following last week's bombshell that Aldi in the UK is actually part of Aldi Süd, rather than the more logical Aldi Nord, here is this week's useless fact:
In Germany there are 2 supermarket chains called Netto: Netto (with dog) and Netto (without dog).
This is a bit different to Aldi Nord and Aldi Süd, who coordinate with each other and have divided Germany between them. Above a certain latitude you only find Aldi Nord, and below it Aldi Süd. A bit like the 38th Parallel in Korea or the Mason-Dixon line. I'm not sure on what basis, but they have also divided the rest of Europe into spheres of influence.
The 2 Nettos are completely different companies, Netto (with dog) is owned by a Danish company, Netto (without dog) by a German supermarket chain. I don't think I have ever seen Netto (with dog) outside of the former East Germany, but there are places there that have both and you have to say 'Netto with/without dog' to specify which supermarket you mean.
I realise Netto (with dog) no longer operates in the UK so this may be of slightly less interest than the 2 Aldis revelation, but I promise this is more interesting than next week's useless fact (which will be about Lidl).
A pointlessly trivial correction, but West Berlin has some Nettos "With Dog". Some times one is just around the corner from a Netto "Without Dog". But then Berlin is almost always an exception!
Has anyone mentioned The Times focus group broadcast yesterday - I only heard replay overnight.
Consisted of undecided voters in safe Con seats (from 50th to 150th safest).
Throughout the focus group, everyone essentially criticised all parties. Then at the end the moderator (from JL Partners) asked each person who they thought they would most likely vote for. Every single person said Con. Moderator said you could not have told this from earlier comments.
Moderator conclusion is that Con vote will hold up better than polls suggest in safe Con seats. Still a landslide but not a wipeout.
I think if you’re undecided at this point you’re basically a Conservative. Small C and Big C.
Mrs Stocky is still undecided. She's between the LibDems and Green.
Has anyone mentioned The Times focus group broadcast yesterday - I only heard replay overnight.
Consisted of undecided voters in safe Con seats (from 50th to 150th safest).
Throughout the focus group, everyone essentially criticised all parties. Then at the end the moderator (from JL Partners) asked each person who they thought they would most likely vote for. Every single person said Con. Moderator said you could not have told this from earlier comments.
Moderator conclusion is that Con vote will hold up better than polls suggest in safe Con seats. Still a landslide but not a wipeout.
I think if you’re undecided at this point you’re basically a Conservative. Small C and Big C.
Has anyone mentioned The Times focus group broadcast yesterday - I only heard replay overnight.
Consisted of undecided voters in safe Con seats (from 50th to 150th safest).
Throughout the focus group, everyone essentially criticised all parties. Then at the end the moderator (from JL Partners) asked each person who they thought they would most likely vote for. Every single person said Con. Moderator said you could not have told this from earlier comments.
Moderator conclusion is that Con vote will hold up better than polls suggest in safe Con seats. Still a landslide but not a wipeout.
Focus groups aren't reliable for extrapolating voting intent though - qual is better for telling you why things happen, rather than what might happen IYSWIM.
Also The Times has been weirdly favourable to the Tories.
Result of the night will be Jeremy Corbyn winning Islington North and if our man on the spot is right about four official canvass visits, Labour is worried about it too.
I think Magic Grandpa will win. And to be honest I shan’t begrudge him it.
Has anyone mentioned The Times focus group broadcast yesterday - I only heard replay overnight.
Consisted of undecided voters in safe Con seats (from 50th to 150th safest).
Throughout the focus group, everyone essentially criticised all parties. Then at the end the moderator (from JL Partners) asked each person who they thought they would most likely vote for. Every single person said Con. Moderator said you could not have told this from earlier comments.
Moderator conclusion is that Con vote will hold up better than polls suggest in safe Con seats. Still a landslide but not a wipeout.
I think if you’re undecided at this point you’re basically a Conservative. Small C and Big C.
If you're undecided at this point you're basically not going to vote.
No longer would we refer to the Portillo moment. Henceforth and in perpetuity it would be known as the Sunak moment.
Were you up for Sunak?
It would also be fitting if all those former Tory leaders who were responsible in one way or another for the destruction of their party - Sunak, Truss and of course IDS for bringing in the stupid membership voting rules - were themselves forced to share the pain of so many of their, sometimes decent, backbench MPs.
I think we need to decide if a 'Portillo moment' is:
a ) the defeat of a prominent politician, or b ) the *unexpected* defeat of a prominent politician.
So in the case of (b) e.g. Jeremy Hunt losing is not a Portillo Moment. Sunak losing would be.
Or the unexpected defeat of a disliked, prominent politician, and I'm not sure Hunt or Sunak are really disliked. Gove was but is not standing, Suella would qualify, and maybe JRM if he counts as an unexpected defeat.
Was Portillo *that* disliked? Genuine question; I was 16 at the time, relatively politically aware but not in the weeds like we are here.
Suella would 100% qualify. As would Truss and I think JRM too.
He was a bete noir at the time. Viscerally disliked by many. Easy to forget in the light of his subsequent career. Rishi doesn't come close.
No longer would we refer to the Portillo moment. Henceforth and in perpetuity it would be known as the Sunak moment.
Were you up for Sunak?
It would also be fitting if all those former Tory leaders who were responsible in one way or another for the destruction of their party - Sunak, Truss and of course IDS for bringing in the stupid membership voting rules - were themselves forced to share the pain of so many of their, sometimes decent, backbench MPs.
I think we need to decide if a 'Portillo moment' is:
a ) the defeat of a prominent politician, or b ) the *unexpected* defeat of a prominent politician.
So in the case of (b) e.g. Jeremy Hunt losing is not a Portillo Moment. Sunak losing would be.
Or the unexpected defeat of a disliked, prominent politician, and I'm not sure Hunt or Sunak are really disliked. Gove was but is not standing, Suella would qualify, and maybe JRM if he counts as an unexpected defeat.
Was Portillo *that* disliked? Genuine question; I was 16 at the time, relatively politically aware but not in the weeds like we are here.
Suella would 100% qualify. As would Truss and I think JRM too.
He was a bete noir at the time. Viscerally disliked by many. Easy to forget in the light of his subsequent career. Rishi doesn't come close.
I think Truss or JRM would be closer to a Portillo moment than Sunak. It was the seeming arrogance and entitlement of Portillo that made him so disliked.
It's quite amazing the way he's turned public perception of himself around by taking a few train rides lol...
It wasn't just the trains. First he had to show some understanding of why he had lost, and he then took part in that reality show where he lived the life of a single parent on benefits and came to understand what a hard existence it was. Then he started doing the trains.
He did apologise nicely at the count, didn't he?
He did make a very good concession speech on the night in 1997. I had friends who said he drew the sting out of their victory celebrations.
Jeremy Hunt is widely disliked but I think slightly unfairly. He’s quite popular in his constituency.
Rishi Sunak is for many tories, including my Surrey friend, the one who stabbed her beloved Boris in the back. She strongly dislikes him. He has also come out with some disgusting dog-whistle gutter politics recently so I hope he gets politically crushed, even though he’s not to blame for this tory mess.
Liz Truss losing would be delicious.
Hopefully everyone can agree though that the one defeat which would be worth cheering across the political spectrum is Johnny Mercer. What a shit.
The hatred for Portillo was a bit confected by the media.
I’ve met him a few times and he was very genial.
I guess he became the fall guy for Thatcherism.
A lot of it was solely based on his infamous 1995 conference address dubbed "the SAS speech".
OK I'm going to have a bash at predicting the Worst Possible But Reasonable Tory outcome
Sadly, my bet with @Sandpit is surely lost. They will win at least one seat. But what is a reasonable worst expectation?
I reckon 30-60 seats, and they are behind Reform in votes, and behind the LDs in seats
It doesn't take much movement, on the day, for that to happen
The current movement in the polls is towards the Tories, presumably as the don't knows finally bow to the inevitable and return to the Tory fold. I would be surprised if that ended up being a polling artefact.
Tactical voting would have to be surprisingly effective to drive the Tories below the Liberal Democrats on seats, I think.
I have that slightly outside my reasonable worst expectation for the Tories now, as a result of the polling movements since the weekend.
I wouldn’t be the surprised if the pollster models don’t bake in swingback.
It’s #GE2024 Election week 🔥 Here are our final VI scores on the door - Labour down by 1 whilst the Cons haves crept up 3 - giving Labour a final 18 point lead.
🔴 Lab 41% (-1) 🔵 Con 23% (+3) ⚪ Ref 15% (-1) 🟠 LD 11% (+1) 🟢 Green 7% (NC) 🟡 SNP 2% (-1) 🟣 Ind 2% (NC)
Captain Tom's ghastly daughter disqualified from being charity trustee.
What a sordid episode that was.
An uplifting story from COVID, but was elevated by her / her connections from the get go. I at least hope that she got greedy afterwards, rather than something more cynical.
For a long time, Opinium tended to have the smallest Labour leads because of its methodology. On 24 May, after the GE was called, they had Labour on a 14pp lead. So this lead of 20 looks pretty significant to me.
We've had endless months of left-leaning posters explaining why the Opinium methodology is suspect. It's kinda hilarious to now see them as the most Labour-favourable pollster.
Have we? Who are these left-leaning people who have been posting endlessly about Opinium?
Well, me for starters, whenever right-leaning posters would point to Opinium top the exclusion of all other pollsters.
No longer would we refer to the Portillo moment. Henceforth and in perpetuity it would be known as the Sunak moment.
Were you up for Sunak?
It would also be fitting if all those former Tory leaders who were responsible in one way or another for the destruction of their party - Sunak, Truss and of course IDS for bringing in the stupid membership voting rules - were themselves forced to share the pain of so many of their, sometimes decent, backbench MPs.
I think we need to decide if a 'Portillo moment' is:
a ) the defeat of a prominent politician, or b ) the *unexpected* defeat of a prominent politician.
So in the case of (b) e.g. Jeremy Hunt losing is not a Portillo Moment. Sunak losing would be.
Or the unexpected defeat of a disliked, prominent politician, and I'm not sure Hunt or Sunak are really disliked. Gove was but is not standing, Suella would qualify, and maybe JRM if he counts as an unexpected defeat.
Was Portillo *that* disliked? Genuine question; I was 16 at the time, relatively politically aware but not in the weeds like we are here.
Suella would 100% qualify. As would Truss and I think JRM too.
He was a bete noir at the time. Viscerally disliked by many. Easy to forget in the light of his subsequent career. Rishi doesn't come close.
No longer would we refer to the Portillo moment. Henceforth and in perpetuity it would be known as the Sunak moment.
Were you up for Sunak?
It would also be fitting if all those former Tory leaders who were responsible in one way or another for the destruction of their party - Sunak, Truss and of course IDS for bringing in the stupid membership voting rules - were themselves forced to share the pain of so many of their, sometimes decent, backbench MPs.
I think we need to decide if a 'Portillo moment' is:
a ) the defeat of a prominent politician, or b ) the *unexpected* defeat of a prominent politician.
So in the case of (b) e.g. Jeremy Hunt losing is not a Portillo Moment. Sunak losing would be.
Or the unexpected defeat of a disliked, prominent politician, and I'm not sure Hunt or Sunak are really disliked. Gove was but is not standing, Suella would qualify, and maybe JRM if he counts as an unexpected defeat.
Was Portillo *that* disliked? Genuine question; I was 16 at the time, relatively politically aware but not in the weeds like we are here.
Suella would 100% qualify. As would Truss and I think JRM too.
He was a bete noir at the time. Viscerally disliked by many. Easy to forget in the light of his subsequent career. Rishi doesn't come close.
I think Truss or JRM would be closer to a Portillo moment than Sunak. It was the seeming arrogance and entitlement of Portillo that made him so disliked.
It's quite amazing the way he's turned public perception of himself around by taking a few train rides lol...
It wasn't just the trains. First he had to show some understanding of why he had lost, and he then took part in that reality show where he lived the life of a single parent on benefits and came to understand what a hard existence it was. Then he started doing the trains.
He did apologise nicely at the count, didn't he?
He did make a very good concession speech on the night in 1997. I had friends who said he drew the sting out of their victory celebrations.
Jeremy Hunt is widely disliked but I think slightly unfairly. He’s quite popular in his constituency.
Rishi Sunak is for many tories, including my Surrey friend, the one who stabbed her beloved Boris in the back. She strongly dislikes him. He has also come out with some disgusting dog-whistle gutter politics recently so I hope he gets politically crushed, even though he’s not to blame for this tory mess.
Liz Truss losing would be delicious.
Hopefully everyone can agree though that the one defeat which would be worth cheering across the political spectrum is Johnny Mercer. What a shit.
The hatred for Portillo was a bit confected by the media.
I’ve met him a few times and he was very genial.
I guess he became the fall guy for Thatcherism.
Part of the dislike was how false he came across in UberThatcherite mode.
When he dropped that, and became himself he became much more likeable.
Remember he was hiding his homosexuality for many years (very sad, but that's what he felt he needed to do)
If he was hiding it, he did a ridiculously bad job of it.
I used to go to a number of things organised at the Jubilee room at the House of Commons. If you organised an event and brought in some booze, you could get half a parliament turning up for the freebies. It was interesting to see backbenchers before they became famous. Blair gatecrashed one....
Anyway, Portillo was a regular at such. And regularly spent the entire evening talking to the more attractive blokes.
One hilarious occasion - a friend had a girlfriend who was an actual, if minor, model. Most of the MPs were talking to her. When they chatted with Portillo, he utterly blanked her and talked across her to my friend.
What made it even funnier was that she wasn't used to men ignoring her like that - she had to push them away with a stick normally. She wasn't nasty or anything - you could see the confusion on her face.
Strangely, she only twigged about Portillo, when I told her afterwards that it was an open secret.
Captain Tom's ghastly daughter disqualified from being charity trustee.
What a sordid episode that was.
An uplifting story from COVID, but was elevated by her / her connections from the get go. I at least hope that she got greedy afterwards, rather than something more cynical.
On behalf of the kind of charity trustees I know - carefully counting every penny and not claiming half the expenses they could - bravo to her disqualification.
OK I'm going to have a bash at predicting the Worst Possible But Reasonable Tory outcome
Sadly, my bet with @Sandpit is surely lost. They will win at least one seat. But what is a reasonable worst expectation?
I reckon 30-60 seats, and they are behind Reform in votes, and behind the LDs in seats
It doesn't take much movement, on the day, for that to happen
The current movement in the polls is towards the Tories, presumably as the don't knows finally bow to the inevitable and return to the Tory fold. I would be surprised if that ended up being a polling artefact.
Tactical voting would have to be surprisingly effective to drive the Tories below the Liberal Democrats on seats, I think.
I have that slightly outside my reasonable worst expectation for the Tories now, as a result of the polling movements since the weekend.
I wouldn’t be the surprised if the pollster models don’t bake in swingback.
There is a thread a while back showing the pollsters who did forecasts (I.e. added swing back) and those that did nowcasts.
I don’t see any sign that the nowcasters were wrong
I will be opening the Chablis if Sunak loses... One must celebrate appropriately
At thet time of night/morning, I'll probably have a sandwich...
For some inexplicable reason I’ve bought some scotch eggs. I never eat scotch eggs! Just fancy them on election night.
Diet coke to help counter migraines as I’ll be on keyboard and tv screen. I never drink diet coke.
Also some Comté cheese with pitta and Ryvitas, olives, peppermint tea, special k bars
No alcohol because I don’t touch the stuff
You have the cheek to complain about Leon posts when you post absolute crap constantly, WTF and quel surprise you don't drink, would not go with the quinoa and pea shoots.
I will be opening the Chablis if Sunak loses... One must celebrate appropriately
At thet time of night/morning, I'll probably have a sandwich...
For some inexplicable reason I’ve bought some scotch eggs. I never eat scotch eggs! Just fancy them on election night.
Diet coke to help counter migraines as I’ll be on keyboard and tv screen. I never drink diet coke.
Also some Comté cheese with pitta and Ryvitas, olives, peppermint tea, special k bars
No alcohol because I don’t touch the stuff
You have the cheek to complain about Leon posts when you post absolute crap constantly, WTF and quel surprise you don't drink, would not go with the quinoa and pea shoots.
Have you laid in cask strength turnip juice for The Big Night?
Our final MRP model ahead of the general election on Thursday shows a large Labour majority and a crushing defeat for the Conservative party.
Our central projections are vote shares of 22% for the Conservatives, 39% for Labour, 15% for Reform UK, 12% for the Liberal Democrats and 7% for the Greens.
These would result in 431 seats for Labour, 102 for the Conservatives, 72 for the Liberal Democrats, 2 for the Greens and 3 for Reform UK. The SNP have 18 seats in Scotland, and Plaid Cymru 3 in Wales.
More in common has Plaid coming 4th in Caerfyrddin (Carmarthen). I know Carmarthen (won by Plaid in 2019) has had bits of Tory Pembrokeshire tacked on, but I still find that idea unrealistic....
Conservative: 17% Labour: 40% Liberal Democrat: 5% Green Party: 3% Reform UK: 22% SNP: 0% Plaid Cymru: 13% Other: 0%
Has anyone mentioned The Times focus group broadcast yesterday - I only heard replay overnight.
Consisted of undecided voters in safe Con seats (from 50th to 150th safest).
Throughout the focus group, everyone essentially criticised all parties. Then at the end the moderator (from JL Partners) asked each person who they thought they would most likely vote for. Every single person said Con. Moderator said you could not have told this from earlier comments.
Moderator conclusion is that Con vote will hold up better than polls suggest in safe Con seats. Still a landslide but not a wipeout.
All the MRPs are wrong, in that case.
I'm sceptical of the MRPs this time.
People are reading them as constituency polls, and they're not.
Our final MRP model ahead of the general election on Thursday shows a large Labour majority and a crushing defeat for the Conservative party.
Our central projections are vote shares of 22% for the Conservatives, 39% for Labour, 15% for Reform UK, 12% for the Liberal Democrats and 7% for the Greens.
These would result in 431 seats for Labour, 102 for the Conservatives, 72 for the Liberal Democrats, 2 for the Greens and 3 for Reform UK. The SNP have 18 seats in Scotland, and Plaid Cymru 3 in Wales.
The big forecasting question for this election is not the polls - which seem to be herding towards L 39, C 21, LD 11, Ref 16, Green 7 - but the EC seat predictor, which on those figures gives:
L 462 (274 maj) C 70 L 70 (!) Ref 7 Green 3 SNP 15 PC 3 Others 20
I mean, I'd love it if they were right but put me down as a sceptic.
No longer would we refer to the Portillo moment. Henceforth and in perpetuity it would be known as the Sunak moment.
Were you up for Sunak?
It would also be fitting if all those former Tory leaders who were responsible in one way or another for the destruction of their party - Sunak, Truss and of course IDS for bringing in the stupid membership voting rules - were themselves forced to share the pain of so many of their, sometimes decent, backbench MPs.
I think we need to decide if a 'Portillo moment' is:
a ) the defeat of a prominent politician, or b ) the *unexpected* defeat of a prominent politician.
So in the case of (b) e.g. Jeremy Hunt losing is not a Portillo Moment. Sunak losing would be.
Or the unexpected defeat of a disliked, prominent politician, and I'm not sure Hunt or Sunak are really disliked. Gove was but is not standing, Suella would qualify, and maybe JRM if he counts as an unexpected defeat.
Was Portillo *that* disliked? Genuine question; I was 16 at the time, relatively politically aware but not in the weeds like we are here.
Suella would 100% qualify. As would Truss and I think JRM too.
He was a bete noir at the time. Viscerally disliked by many. Easy to forget in the light of his subsequent career. Rishi doesn't come close.
No longer would we refer to the Portillo moment. Henceforth and in perpetuity it would be known as the Sunak moment.
Were you up for Sunak?
It would also be fitting if all those former Tory leaders who were responsible in one way or another for the destruction of their party - Sunak, Truss and of course IDS for bringing in the stupid membership voting rules - were themselves forced to share the pain of so many of their, sometimes decent, backbench MPs.
I think we need to decide if a 'Portillo moment' is:
a ) the defeat of a prominent politician, or b ) the *unexpected* defeat of a prominent politician.
So in the case of (b) e.g. Jeremy Hunt losing is not a Portillo Moment. Sunak losing would be.
Or the unexpected defeat of a disliked, prominent politician, and I'm not sure Hunt or Sunak are really disliked. Gove was but is not standing, Suella would qualify, and maybe JRM if he counts as an unexpected defeat.
Was Portillo *that* disliked? Genuine question; I was 16 at the time, relatively politically aware but not in the weeds like we are here.
Suella would 100% qualify. As would Truss and I think JRM too.
He was a bete noir at the time. Viscerally disliked by many. Easy to forget in the light of his subsequent career. Rishi doesn't come close.
I think Truss or JRM would be closer to a Portillo moment than Sunak. It was the seeming arrogance and entitlement of Portillo that made him so disliked.
It's quite amazing the way he's turned public perception of himself around by taking a few train rides lol...
It wasn't just the trains. First he had to show some understanding of why he had lost, and he then took part in that reality show where he lived the life of a single parent on benefits and came to understand what a hard existence it was. Then he started doing the trains.
He did apologise nicely at the count, didn't he?
He did make a very good concession speech on the night in 1997. I had friends who said he drew the sting out of their victory celebrations.
Jeremy Hunt is widely disliked but I think slightly unfairly. He’s quite popular in his constituency.
Rishi Sunak is for many tories, including my Surrey friend, the one who stabbed her beloved Boris in the back. She strongly dislikes him. He has also come out with some disgusting dog-whistle gutter politics recently so I hope he gets politically crushed, even though he’s not to blame for this tory mess.
Liz Truss losing would be delicious.
Hopefully everyone can agree though that the one defeat which would be worth cheering across the political spectrum is Johnny Mercer. What a shit.
The hatred for Portillo was a bit confected by the media.
I’ve met him a few times and he was very genial.
I guess he became the fall guy for Thatcherism.
Part of the dislike was how false he came across in UberThatcherite mode.
When he dropped that, and became himself he became much more likeable.
Remember he was hiding his homosexuality for many years (very sad, but that's what he felt he needed to do)
If he was hiding it, he did a ridiculously bad job of it.
I used to go to a number of things organised at the Jubilee room at the House of Commons. If you organised an event and brought in some booze, you could get half a parliament turning up for the freebies. It was interesting to see backbenchers before they became famous. Blair gatecrashed one....
Anyway, Portillo was a regular at such. And regularly spent the entire evening talking to the more attractive blokes.
One hilarious occasion - a friend had a girlfriend who was an actual, if minor, model. Most of the MPs were talking to her. When they chatted with Portillo, he utterly blanked her and talked across her to my friend.
What made it even funnier was that she wasn't used to men ignoring her like that - she had to push them away with a stick normally. She wasn't nasty or anything - you could see the confusion on her face.
Strangely, she only twigged about Portillo, when I told her afterwards that it was an open secret.
Yes, it was SCREAMINGLY obvious - the multicoloured shirts were more than a hint
However he really was closeted. It is such a sad thing, and I am glad people don't have to do it any more - at the moment.....
It is one primary reason I am against Muslim immigration from conservative Muslim countries where homophobia is rife, indeed murderous. We really do risk importing these antiquated attitudes having successfully liberated ourselves from them. It is a tragic error. Pym Fortuyn (gay, of course) foresaw this evolution many years ago
No longer would we refer to the Portillo moment. Henceforth and in perpetuity it would be known as the Sunak moment.
Were you up for Sunak?
It would also be fitting if all those former Tory leaders who were responsible in one way or another for the destruction of their party - Sunak, Truss and of course IDS for bringing in the stupid membership voting rules - were themselves forced to share the pain of so many of their, sometimes decent, backbench MPs.
I think we need to decide if a 'Portillo moment' is:
a ) the defeat of a prominent politician, or b ) the *unexpected* defeat of a prominent politician.
So in the case of (b) e.g. Jeremy Hunt losing is not a Portillo Moment. Sunak losing would be.
Or the unexpected defeat of a disliked, prominent politician, and I'm not sure Hunt or Sunak are really disliked. Gove was but is not standing, Suella would qualify, and maybe JRM if he counts as an unexpected defeat.
Was Portillo *that* disliked? Genuine question; I was 16 at the time, relatively politically aware but not in the weeds like we are here.
Suella would 100% qualify. As would Truss and I think JRM too.
He was a bete noir at the time. Viscerally disliked by many. Easy to forget in the light of his subsequent career. Rishi doesn't come close.
No longer would we refer to the Portillo moment. Henceforth and in perpetuity it would be known as the Sunak moment.
Were you up for Sunak?
It would also be fitting if all those former Tory leaders who were responsible in one way or another for the destruction of their party - Sunak, Truss and of course IDS for bringing in the stupid membership voting rules - were themselves forced to share the pain of so many of their, sometimes decent, backbench MPs.
I think we need to decide if a 'Portillo moment' is:
a ) the defeat of a prominent politician, or b ) the *unexpected* defeat of a prominent politician.
So in the case of (b) e.g. Jeremy Hunt losing is not a Portillo Moment. Sunak losing would be.
Or the unexpected defeat of a disliked, prominent politician, and I'm not sure Hunt or Sunak are really disliked. Gove was but is not standing, Suella would qualify, and maybe JRM if he counts as an unexpected defeat.
Was Portillo *that* disliked? Genuine question; I was 16 at the time, relatively politically aware but not in the weeds like we are here.
Suella would 100% qualify. As would Truss and I think JRM too.
He was a bete noir at the time. Viscerally disliked by many. Easy to forget in the light of his subsequent career. Rishi doesn't come close.
I think Truss or JRM would be closer to a Portillo moment than Sunak. It was the seeming arrogance and entitlement of Portillo that made him so disliked.
It's quite amazing the way he's turned public perception of himself around by taking a few train rides lol...
It wasn't just the trains. First he had to show some understanding of why he had lost, and he then took part in that reality show where he lived the life of a single parent on benefits and came to understand what a hard existence it was. Then he started doing the trains.
He did apologise nicely at the count, didn't he?
He did make a very good concession speech on the night in 1997. I had friends who said he drew the sting out of their victory celebrations.
Jeremy Hunt is widely disliked but I think slightly unfairly. He’s quite popular in his constituency.
Rishi Sunak is for many tories, including my Surrey friend, the one who stabbed her beloved Boris in the back. She strongly dislikes him. He has also come out with some disgusting dog-whistle gutter politics recently so I hope he gets politically crushed, even though he’s not to blame for this tory mess.
Liz Truss losing would be delicious.
Hopefully everyone can agree though that the one defeat which would be worth cheering across the political spectrum is Johnny Mercer. What a shit.
The hatred for Portillo was a bit confected by the media.
I’ve met him a few times and he was very genial.
I guess he became the fall guy for Thatcherism.
Part of the dislike was how false he came across in UberThatcherite mode.
When he dropped that, and became himself he became much more likeable.
Remember he was hiding his homosexuality for many years (very sad, but that's what he felt he needed to do)
If he was hiding it, he did a ridiculously bad job of it.
I used to go to a number of things organised at the Jubilee room at the House of Commons. If you organised an event and brought in some booze, you could get half a parliament turning up for the freebies. It was interesting to see backbenchers before they became famous. Blair gatecrashed one....
Anyway, Portillo was a regular at such. And regularly spent the entire evening talking to the more attractive blokes.
One hilarious occasion - a friend had a girlfriend who was an actual, if minor, model. Most of the MPs were talking to her. When they chatted with Portillo, he utterly blanked her and talked across her to my friend.
What made it even funnier was that she wasn't used to men ignoring her like that - she had to push them away with a stick normally. She wasn't nasty or anything - you could see the confusion on her face.
Strangely, she only twigged about Portillo, when I told her afterwards that it was an open secret.
I like your pun "Twigged"....
He was heavily criticised because he was "openly gay off the record" but was more than just in denial on the record. He was hippocritical about gay rights and his voting record on that subject. After the 97 election he became much more open and supportive.
I will be opening the Chablis if Sunak loses... One must celebrate appropriately
At thet time of night/morning, I'll probably have a sandwich...
For some inexplicable reason I’ve bought some scotch eggs. I never eat scotch eggs! Just fancy them on election night.
Diet coke to help counter migraines as I’ll be on keyboard and tv screen. I never drink diet coke.
Also some Comté cheese with pitta and Ryvitas, olives, peppermint tea, special k bars
No alcohol because I don’t touch the stuff
You have the cheek to complain about Leon posts when you post absolute crap constantly, WTF and quel surprise you don't drink, would not go with the quinoa and pea shoots.
Due you have a bottle of malt set aside for the most enjoyable results, Malc? I have a good bottle of Glen Garioch ready for DRoss’s defeat.
Our final MRP model ahead of the general election on Thursday shows a large Labour majority and a crushing defeat for the Conservative party.
Our central projections are vote shares of 22% for the Conservatives, 39% for Labour, 15% for Reform UK, 12% for the Liberal Democrats and 7% for the Greens.
These would result in 431 seats for Labour, 102 for the Conservatives, 72 for the Liberal Democrats, 2 for the Greens and 3 for Reform UK. The SNP have 18 seats in Scotland, and Plaid Cymru 3 in Wales.
Con very close to an extinction event there (which I thinking is anything under 100 seats and/or the Lib-Dems replacing them as the Official Opposition)
The big forecasting question for this election is not the polls - which seem to be herding towards L 39, C 21, LD 11, Ref 16, Green 7 - but the EC seat predictor, which on those figures gives:
L 462 (274 maj) C 70 L 70 (!) Ref 7 Green 3 SNP 15 PC 3 Others 20
I mean, I'd love it if they were right but put me down as a sceptic.
(Then again, the MPRs...)
It's hard to see how the Lib Dems finish ahead of the Conservatives on half the vote share.
Averaging 12 eve of polls (and excluding the MRP's) we get
Labour 38.8% Conservative 21.0%, Reform 16.5% Lib Dem 10.8%.
Dog’s in a cone due to an eye infection, so he’s a bit grumpy. Hearing about all the Tories due to lose their seats tomorrow night isn’t cheering him up, sadly.
Have you tried the inflatable rings instead? Worked way better for our dog - she used it as a comfy pillow.
Mine shredded it. She shreds most things.
She is particularly savage with election literature.
I will be opening the Chablis if Sunak loses... One must celebrate appropriately
At thet time of night/morning, I'll probably have a sandwich...
For some inexplicable reason I’ve bought some scotch eggs. I never eat scotch eggs! Just fancy them on election night.
Diet coke to help counter migraines as I’ll be on keyboard and tv screen. I never drink diet coke.
Also some Comté cheese with pitta and Ryvitas, olives, peppermint tea, special k bars
No alcohol because I don’t touch the stuff
You have the cheek to complain about Leon posts when you post absolute crap constantly, WTF and quel surprise you don't drink, would not go with the quinoa and pea shoots.
The Aldi Cuckoo Clock (the one you said looked like a demented pigeon clock in 2016) is all set too Cockoo the exit poll in at 10PM tomorrow
Our final MRP model ahead of the general election on Thursday shows a large Labour majority and a crushing defeat for the Conservative party.
Our central projections are vote shares of 22% for the Conservatives, 39% for Labour, 15% for Reform UK, 12% for the Liberal Democrats and 7% for the Greens.
These would result in 431 seats for Labour, 102 for the Conservatives, 72 for the Liberal Democrats, 2 for the Greens and 3 for Reform UK. The SNP have 18 seats in Scotland, and Plaid Cymru 3 in Wales.
Yep tories between 21 and 23% now central projection. Some minor swingback but nowhere near enough.
No longer would we refer to the Portillo moment. Henceforth and in perpetuity it would be known as the Sunak moment.
Were you up for Sunak?
It would also be fitting if all those former Tory leaders who were responsible in one way or another for the destruction of their party - Sunak, Truss and of course IDS for bringing in the stupid membership voting rules - were themselves forced to share the pain of so many of their, sometimes decent, backbench MPs.
I think we need to decide if a 'Portillo moment' is:
a ) the defeat of a prominent politician, or b ) the *unexpected* defeat of a prominent politician.
So in the case of (b) e.g. Jeremy Hunt losing is not a Portillo Moment. Sunak losing would be.
Or the unexpected defeat of a disliked, prominent politician, and I'm not sure Hunt or Sunak are really disliked. Gove was but is not standing, Suella would qualify, and maybe JRM if he counts as an unexpected defeat.
Was Portillo *that* disliked? Genuine question; I was 16 at the time, relatively politically aware but not in the weeds like we are here.
Suella would 100% qualify. As would Truss and I think JRM too.
Yes, Portillo was intensely disliked by most non-Tories. At that time he was on the right of the party, favoured by people like Tebbit, and had quite an unpleasant streak.
It was later that he mellowed and became the urbane sophisticate that we all know and love now.
He wasn’t gay back then, either. Well he was, obvs, but he wasn’t.
No longer would we refer to the Portillo moment. Henceforth and in perpetuity it would be known as the Sunak moment.
Were you up for Sunak?
It would also be fitting if all those former Tory leaders who were responsible in one way or another for the destruction of their party - Sunak, Truss and of course IDS for bringing in the stupid membership voting rules - were themselves forced to share the pain of so many of their, sometimes decent, backbench MPs.
I think we need to decide if a 'Portillo moment' is:
a ) the defeat of a prominent politician, or b ) the *unexpected* defeat of a prominent politician.
So in the case of (b) e.g. Jeremy Hunt losing is not a Portillo Moment. Sunak losing would be.
Or the unexpected defeat of a disliked, prominent politician, and I'm not sure Hunt or Sunak are really disliked. Gove was but is not standing, Suella would qualify, and maybe JRM if he counts as an unexpected defeat.
Was Portillo *that* disliked? Genuine question; I was 16 at the time, relatively politically aware but not in the weeds like we are here.
Suella would 100% qualify. As would Truss and I think JRM too.
He was a bete noir at the time. Viscerally disliked by many. Easy to forget in the light of his subsequent career. Rishi doesn't come close.
On a personal level, losing his seat did him a favour. He'd become obnoxious, bumptious, preening - and that was only how he came over on TV. With his bubble burst, he managed to salvage the real person - at least as far as TV could show.
His double act with Diane Abbot then Alan Johnson on Andrew Neil was usually good value, as well
No longer would we refer to the Portillo moment. Henceforth and in perpetuity it would be known as the Sunak moment.
Were you up for Sunak?
It would also be fitting if all those former Tory leaders who were responsible in one way or another for the destruction of their party - Sunak, Truss and of course IDS for bringing in the stupid membership voting rules - were themselves forced to share the pain of so many of their, sometimes decent, backbench MPs.
I think we need to decide if a 'Portillo moment' is:
a ) the defeat of a prominent politician, or b ) the *unexpected* defeat of a prominent politician.
So in the case of (b) e.g. Jeremy Hunt losing is not a Portillo Moment. Sunak losing would be.
Or the unexpected defeat of a disliked, prominent politician, and I'm not sure Hunt or Sunak are really disliked. Gove was but is not standing, Suella would qualify, and maybe JRM if he counts as an unexpected defeat.
Was Portillo *that* disliked? Genuine question; I was 16 at the time, relatively politically aware but not in the weeds like we are here.
Suella would 100% qualify. As would Truss and I think JRM too.
He was a bete noir at the time. Viscerally disliked by many. Easy to forget in the light of his subsequent career. Rishi doesn't come close.
No longer would we refer to the Portillo moment. Henceforth and in perpetuity it would be known as the Sunak moment.
Were you up for Sunak?
It would also be fitting if all those former Tory leaders who were responsible in one way or another for the destruction of their party - Sunak, Truss and of course IDS for bringing in the stupid membership voting rules - were themselves forced to share the pain of so many of their, sometimes decent, backbench MPs.
I think we need to decide if a 'Portillo moment' is:
a ) the defeat of a prominent politician, or b ) the *unexpected* defeat of a prominent politician.
So in the case of (b) e.g. Jeremy Hunt losing is not a Portillo Moment. Sunak losing would be.
Or the unexpected defeat of a disliked, prominent politician, and I'm not sure Hunt or Sunak are really disliked. Gove was but is not standing, Suella would qualify, and maybe JRM if he counts as an unexpected defeat.
Was Portillo *that* disliked? Genuine question; I was 16 at the time, relatively politically aware but not in the weeds like we are here.
Suella would 100% qualify. As would Truss and I think JRM too.
He was a bete noir at the time. Viscerally disliked by many. Easy to forget in the light of his subsequent career. Rishi doesn't come close.
I think Truss or JRM would be closer to a Portillo moment than Sunak. It was the seeming arrogance and entitlement of Portillo that made him so disliked.
It's quite amazing the way he's turned public perception of himself around by taking a few train rides lol...
It wasn't just the trains. First he had to show some understanding of why he had lost, and he then took part in that reality show where he lived the life of a single parent on benefits and came to understand what a hard existence it was. Then he started doing the trains.
He did apologise nicely at the count, didn't he?
He did make a very good concession speech on the night in 1997. I had friends who said he drew the sting out of their victory celebrations.
Jeremy Hunt is widely disliked but I think slightly unfairly. He’s quite popular in his constituency.
Rishi Sunak is for many tories, including my Surrey friend, the one who stabbed her beloved Boris in the back. She strongly dislikes him. He has also come out with some disgusting dog-whistle gutter politics recently so I hope he gets politically crushed, even though he’s not to blame for this tory mess.
Liz Truss losing would be delicious.
Hopefully everyone can agree though that the one defeat which would be worth cheering across the political spectrum is Johnny Mercer. What a shit.
The hatred for Portillo was a bit confected by the media.
I’ve met him a few times and he was very genial.
I guess he became the fall guy for Thatcherism.
Part of the dislike was how false he came across in UberThatcherite mode.
When he dropped that, and became himself he became much more likeable.
Remember he was hiding his homosexuality for many years (very sad, but that's what he felt he needed to do)
If he was hiding it, he did a ridiculously bad job of it.
I used to go to a number of things organised at the Jubilee room at the House of Commons. If you organised an event and brought in some booze, you could get half a parliament turning up for the freebies. It was interesting to see backbenchers before they became famous. Blair gatecrashed one....
Anyway, Portillo was a regular at such. And regularly spent the entire evening talking to the more attractive blokes.
One hilarious occasion - a friend had a girlfriend who was an actual, if minor, model. Most of the MPs were talking to her. When they chatted with Portillo, he utterly blanked her and talked across her to my friend.
What made it even funnier was that she wasn't used to men ignoring her like that - she had to push them away with a stick normally. She wasn't nasty or anything - you could see the confusion on her face.
Strangely, she only twigged about Portillo, when I told her afterwards that it was an open secret.
Yes, it was SCREAMINGLY obvious - the multicoloured shirts were more than a hint
However he really was closeted. It is such a sad thing, and I am glad people don't have to do it any more - at the moment.....
It is one primary reason I am against Muslim immigration from conservative Muslim countries where homophobia is rife, indeed murderous. We really do risk importing these antiquated attitudes having successfully liberated ourselves from them. It is a tragic error. Pym Fortuyn (gay, of course) foresaw this evolution many years ago
Yes, I remember Sturgeon's triumphalism. This is why I am so looking forward to the day she is arrested and charged for her antics in the SNP.
What an arse, no whining about the billions stolen by your Tory chums or the mass of crimes they have commited down south. Hopefully you choke on your hubris.
I will be opening the Chablis if Sunak loses... One must celebrate appropriately
At thet time of night/morning, I'll probably have a sandwich...
For some inexplicable reason I’ve bought some scotch eggs. I never eat scotch eggs! Just fancy them on election night.
Diet coke to help counter migraines as I’ll be on keyboard and tv screen. I never drink diet coke.
Also some Comté cheese with pitta and Ryvitas, olives, peppermint tea, special k bars
No alcohol because I don’t touch the stuff
You have the cheek to complain about Leon posts when you post absolute crap constantly, WTF and quel surprise you don't drink, would not go with the quinoa and pea shoots.
Comments
If he's just old and frail to the point he's not up to the usual rigours of a presidency and campaign then there's an exit strategy. He gives a big emotional speech - which he is capable of doing as a setpiece - saying he's OK, but realises he can't go on for four more years and it's clear has lost the confidence of his party as nominee and won't be standing but will carry on till January. Tries to garner some sympathy as acting out of duty.
Neither is particularly good optics for the Democrats, but we are where we are. They have to hope the optics of four years of untrammeled Trump are worse and whoever takes his place is a good campaigner.
Despicable man.
But am utterly delighted for him.
Consisted of undecided voters in safe Con seats (from 50th to 150th safest).
Throughout the focus group, everyone essentially criticised all parties. Then at the end the moderator (from JL Partners) asked each person who they thought they would most likely vote for. Every single person said Con. Moderator said you could not have told this from earlier comments.
Moderator conclusion is that Con vote will hold up better than polls suggest in safe Con seats. Still a landslide but not a wipeout.
1997 was my first vote and I remember the Portillo moment well. It was Stephen Twigg’s expression which was so lovely too: a sign of a new broom.
"Final fuel delivery marks end of the line for coal
The UK's last remaining coal-fired power station is entering its final days. The plant at Ratcliffe-on Soar, Nottinghamshire, is a prominent landmark for rail passengers on the Midlands Main Line and M1 traffic passing close by. It began generating electricity 57 years ago - in 1967 - with a capacity of 2,000 megawatts, enough to power two million homes. However, it will close on 30 September as part of government plans to end coal production in the UK."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c886qd2g80xo
I still think it might be better to have it as VP Harris. It helps her be seen more as ‘Change’ whilst also being able to take the credit of incumbency in the current administration.
Damnit.
But I’m thrilled for the Manx Missile
Especially considering the state of the thing covering it.
When he dropped that, and became himself he became much more likeable.
Also The Times has been weirdly favourable to the Tories.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=54rhgUrzOXM
Captain Tom's ghastly daughter disqualified from being charity trustee.
What a sordid episode that was.
It’s #GE2024 Election week 🔥 Here are our final VI scores on the door - Labour down by 1 whilst the Cons haves crept up 3 - giving Labour a final 18 point lead.
🔴 Lab 41% (-1)
🔵 Con 23% (+3)
⚪ Ref 15% (-1)
🟠 LD 11% (+1)
🟢 Green 7% (NC)
🟡 SNP 2% (-1)
🟣 Ind 2% (NC)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hornchurch_and_Upminster_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
Thank Christ there's nothing happening on the other side of the pond to make it even harder.
I used to go to a number of things organised at the Jubilee room at the House of Commons. If you organised an event and brought in some booze, you could get half a parliament turning up for the freebies. It was interesting to see backbenchers before they became famous. Blair gatecrashed one....
Anyway, Portillo was a regular at such. And regularly spent the entire evening talking to the more attractive blokes.
One hilarious occasion - a friend had a girlfriend who was an actual, if minor, model. Most of the MPs were talking to her. When they chatted with Portillo, he utterly blanked her and talked across her to my friend.
What made it even funnier was that she wasn't used to men ignoring her like that - she had to push them away with a stick normally. She wasn't nasty or anything - you could see the confusion on her face.
Strangely, she only twigged about Portillo, when I told her afterwards that it was an open secret.
Labour 472
Cons 62
LibDems 70
Reform 6
Greens 3
SNP 15
Others 4
N.I. 18
Total 650
LabMaj 294
I don’t see any sign that the nowcasters were wrong
Our final MRP model ahead of the general election on Thursday shows a large Labour majority and a crushing defeat for the Conservative party.
Our central projections are vote shares of 22% for the Conservatives, 39% for Labour, 15% for Reform UK, 12% for the Liberal Democrats and 7% for the Greens.
These would result in 431 seats for Labour, 102 for the Conservatives, 72 for the Liberal Democrats, 2 for the Greens and 3 for Reform UK. The SNP have 18 seats in Scotland, and Plaid Cymru 3 in Wales.
People are reading them as constituency polls, and they're not.
I think it's fabulously exciting.
L 462 (274 maj)
C 70
L 70 (!)
Ref 7
Green 3
SNP 15
PC 3
Others 20
I mean, I'd love it if they were right but put me down as a sceptic.
(Then again, the MPRs...)
However he really was closeted. It is such a sad thing, and I am glad people don't have to do it any more - at the moment.....
It is one primary reason I am against Muslim immigration from conservative Muslim countries where homophobia is rife, indeed murderous. We really do risk importing these antiquated attitudes having successfully liberated ourselves from them. It is a tragic error. Pym Fortuyn (gay, of course) foresaw this evolution many years ago
BREAKING
Labour is on track to win the largest majority of any party in modern history, YouGov MRP poll suggests
Final YouGov poll of campaign suggests Tories will be reduced to 102 MPs, having lost 70% of seats they won in 2019
Labour expected to win 431 seats, giving Keir Starmer a majority of 212. It would be the largest majority for any single party since 1832
It suggests that Tory warnings over a Labour super-majority are not working - if anything the gap is widening
Con: 102
Lab: 431
Lib Dem: 72
SNP: 18
Greens: 2
Reform: 3
Plaid: 3
https://x.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1808532075332456729
He was heavily criticised because he was "openly gay off the record" but was more than just in denial on the record. He was hippocritical about gay rights and his voting record on that subject. After the 97 election he became much more open and supportive.
https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/49950-final-yougov-mrp-shows-labour-on-course-for-historic-election-victory
Awwww bless. Frothing into his bib.
Right, Emma is coming on court ...
Averaging 12 eve of polls (and excluding the MRP's) we get
Labour 38.8%
Conservative 21.0%,
Reform 16.5%
Lib Dem 10.8%.
She is particularly savage with election literature.
Also hold on to Finchley but lose Orpington
Ben’s victory was a wonderful moment. Again, a sea-change signal.
Astonishing, isn't it, compared with a couple of years back? We really have gone through the looking glass.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1TskjcRFG9P0FLFeLzU6m3hefToD1aSC8rw8tj6_H7Rg/edit
I have 32 x constituency bets with B365 alone. And then SkyBet/PP/Ladys/Corals on top. 2 or 3 others with Hills.
And then I'm playing about 8-9 different markets on Exchange on top.
Already got £310 of profit on a Labour majority "locked in". But down £75 due to Rishi welching on an early election date.
Hoping that overall I get up to four figures on the night, but we'll see.