6.7 million postal votes returned so far, according to the Electoral Commission. Source = Radio 4 radio news.
Out of how many issued?
Not sure exactly but it says 25% vote by post these days. At the last election 32 million people voted altogether so 8 million, but turnout might be down slightly at this election. So maybe 6.7 million out of 7.5 million, or something like that.
If those figures are close, then that sounds pretty normal - indeed slightly higher than I would guess. Nowadays a lot of people bring their PVs to the polling stations on the day.
I expect a Labour government. I always want one. I've been hoping for and confidently counting down the hours for 2 and a bit years. And now? I don't know how to feel. A little nervous. I'll be crushed if it doesn't happen. But I don't really know how I'll mark it. I have no great expectations of change. At least not soon. But not having to listen to Boris, Braverman, Truss, JRM, Sunak, the Telegraph and the Mail, and take them seriously, because they have the power to affect my life will be a relief and a weight lifted. Maybe I'd sleep for a week if I didn't have to work to pay my outrageous rent? I think perhaps that's how the 40% of the country voting Labour are feeling. Just fucking exhausted by your constant Tory drama about all kinds of shit that simply doesn't matter to folk who work hard and just want to have a bit left over to spend.
The guidelines from Starmer is that you should simply go to work as usual, but you are allowed an extra biscuit with your tea, by way of celebration. Just for Friday, obvs.
Steady on there.
I will be just glad if Steve Bray just f##ks off into obscurity.
Interesting albeit obvious point by Chris Mason on the BBC:
'The stand-out fact at the heart of this campaign is that for all the noise and hullaballoo over the past month-and-a-half, the colossal gap in the opinion polls between Labour and the Conservatives has barely budged’
I have feeling we are nearly-all underestimating the visceral hatred of the Conservatives and therefore the extent of tactical voting. I’ve been lulled into this, betting on 100-200 Cons seats when the result could be worse for them.
Interesting albeit obvious point by Chris Mason on the BBC:
'The stand-out fact at the heart of this campaign is that for all the noise and hullaballoo over the past month-and-a-half, the colossal gap in the opinion polls between Labour and the Conservatives has barely budged’
I have feeling we are nearly-all underestimating the visceral hatred of the Conservatives and therefore the extent of tactical voting. I’ve been lulled into this, betting on 100-200 Cons seats when the result could be worse for them.
Rarely do campaigns ever change the polls if measured at start and the end. The May / Corbyn one, I just never believed she was 150% ahead, there was something wrong with the polling as there are never that many Tory fans in the country. But on that one occasion I think the campaign did close the gap (just not the extent the polls would suggest).
Interesting albeit obvious point by Chris Mason on the BBC:
'The stand-out fact at the heart of this campaign is that for all the noise and hullaballoo over the past month-and-a-half, the colossal gap in the opinion polls between Labour and the Conservatives has barely budged’
I have feeling we are nearly-all underestimating the visceral hatred of the Conservatives and therefore the extent of tactical voting. I’ve been lulled into this, betting on 100-200 Cons seats when the result could be worse for them.
Rarely do campaigns ever change the polls if measured at start and the end. The May / Corbyn one, I just never believed she was 150% ahead, there are never that many Tory fans.
Not a team player. I think we can expect her to defect in the hope others follow and a forced merger happens with Reform. I suspect that will fail. Either way she is finished in front line politics
If a few more people hadn't been 'team players' the Tories might have ditched Sunak and avoided electoral wipeout.
I expect a Labour government. I always want one. I've been hoping for and confidently counting down the hours for 2 and a bit years. And now? I don't know how to feel. A little nervous. I'll be crushed if it doesn't happen. But I don't really know how I'll mark it. I have no great expectations of change. At least not soon. But not having to listen to Boris, Braverman, Truss, JRM, Sunak, the Telegraph and the Mail, and take them seriously, because they have the power to affect my life will be a relief and a weight lifted. Maybe I'd sleep for a week if I didn't have to work to pay my outrageous rent? I think perhaps that's how the 40% of the country voting Labour are feeling. Just fucking exhausted by your constant Tory drama about all kinds of shit that simply doesn't matter to folk who work hard and just want to have a bit left over to spend.
Agree. I'm intrigued at how quickly I and others will forget how bad the Tories have been, and start to get frustrated with setbacks in a Labour govt. I don't have super high expectations. More housing + basic competence is essentially what I'm hoping for.
Not a team player. I think we can expect her to defect in the hope others follow and a forced merger happens with Reform. I suspect that will fail. Either way she is finished in front line politics
If a few more people hadn't been 'team players' the Tories might have ditched Sunak and avoided electoral wipeout.
Not a team player. I think we can expect her to defect in the hope others follow and a forced merger happens with Reform. I suspect that will fail. Either way she is finished in front line politics
If a few more people hadn't been 'team players' the Tories might have ditched Sunak and avoided electoral wipeout.
The seeds of this defeat though were sown before Sunak, and that’s something you on the Right really need to come to terms with.
Whether you go as far back as 2016 is up to you, but there’s little doubt that if Boris Johnson was unsuitable material to be PM, then Liz Truss was utterly disastrous.
The Conservative Party won't lose this election because of Rishi Sunak.
Not a team player. I think we can expect her to defect in the hope others follow and a forced merger happens with Reform. I suspect that will fail. Either way she is finished in front line politics
If a few more people hadn't been 'team players' the Tories might have ditched Sunak and avoided electoral wipeout.
And bought back Liz?
No, though on the strength of current polling, that would have been an improvement. At the very least she'd have given Tory MPs another 6 months in gainful employment.
Not a team player. I think we can expect her to defect in the hope others follow and a forced merger happens with Reform. I suspect that will fail. Either way she is finished in front line politics
If a few more people hadn't been 'team players' the Tories might have ditched Sunak and avoided electoral wipeout.
And bought back Liz?
No, though on the strength of current polling, that would have been an improvement. At the very least she'd have given Tory MPs another 6 months in gainful employment.
gabyhinsliff @gabyhinsliff · 39m who thought getting Boris to do the practically-eve-of-election rally was going to help? All he's doing is reminding part of the Tory vote they'd rather have him as leader & reminding much of the rest of the country why they're not voting Tory
It's the final humiliation of Sunak, having to beg the leader he knifed to come back and sprinkle a touch of glitter on his turd of a campaign.
And absolute delight for Boris, having Rishi beg him to come back to help campaign and try and save a few redwall seats and Leave voting marginals.
If Boris was still leader the Tories would get at least 200 seats on Thursday even if he would likely still have lost
You still talk about Johnson as if it was 2019. It isn’t and he was nowhere near as populat by the time he was forced to resign in disgrace.
Not a team player. I think we can expect her to defect in the hope others follow and a forced merger happens with Reform. I suspect that will fail. Either way she is finished in front line politics
If a few more people hadn't been 'team players' the Tories might have ditched Sunak and avoided electoral wipeout.
If they’d imposed yet another PM on us, they’d be even more of a laughing stock.
Not a team player. I think we can expect her to defect in the hope others follow and a forced merger happens with Reform. I suspect that will fail. Either way she is finished in front line politics
If a few more people hadn't been 'team players' the Tories might have ditched Sunak and avoided electoral wipeout.
The seeds of this defeat though were sown before Sunak, and that’s something you on the Right really need to come to terms with.
Whether you go as far back as 2016 is up to you, but there’s little doubt that if Boris Johnson was unsuitable material to be PM, then Liz Truss was utterly disastrous.
The Conservative Party won't lose this election because of Rishi Sunak.
Sorry but that's exactly what is happening. People aren't voting for another 5 years of Truss, Boris and their respective Governments. Sunak has had ample time (and six months more if he wanted it) to show what he's about. People have decided they like it somewhat less than a dose of clap.
I expect a Labour government. I always want one. I've been hoping for and confidently counting down the hours for 2 and a bit years. And now? I don't know how to feel. A little nervous. I'll be crushed if it doesn't happen. But I don't really know how I'll mark it. I have no great expectations of change. At least not soon. But not having to listen to Boris, Braverman, Truss, JRM, Sunak, the Telegraph and the Mail, and take them seriously, because they have the power to affect my life will be a relief and a weight lifted. Maybe I'd sleep for a week if I didn't have to work to pay my outrageous rent? I think perhaps that's how the 40% of the country voting Labour are feeling. Just fucking exhausted by your constant Tory drama about all kinds of shit that simply doesn't matter to folk who work hard and just want to have a bit left over to spend.
Fantastic post. I’ve taken a screenshot to remind myself of what we went through during the months and years ahead.
Not a team player. I think we can expect her to defect in the hope others follow and a forced merger happens with Reform. I suspect that will fail. Either way she is finished in front line politics
If a few more people hadn't been 'team players' the Tories might have ditched Sunak and avoided electoral wipeout.
If they’d imposed yet another PM on us, they’d be even more of a laughing stock.
Not a team player. I think we can expect her to defect in the hope others follow and a forced merger happens with Reform. I suspect that will fail. Either way she is finished in front line politics
If a few more people hadn't been 'team players' the Tories might have ditched Sunak and avoided electoral wipeout.
And bought back Liz?
No, though on the strength of current polling, that would have been an improvement. At the very least she'd have given Tory MPs another 6 months in gainful employment.
Gainful for them; it certainly isn’t helping anyone else.
I reckon reasons for not waiting until the end of the year will come out in due course, possibly somewhere between the US and the King and the expected economic data.
The Tories went from being ahead to being significantly behind under Johnson, and dropped to very significantly behind after Truss. There was no coming back from those two, and since then, there hasn’t been.
Rishi has disappointed, but he inherited a hand that was almost impossible to play.
Not a team player. I think we can expect her to defect in the hope others follow and a forced merger happens with Reform. I suspect that will fail. Either way she is finished in front line politics
If a few more people hadn't been 'team players' the Tories might have ditched Sunak and avoided electoral wipeout.
The seeds of this defeat though were sown before Sunak, and that’s something you on the Right really need to come to terms with.
Whether you go as far back as 2016 is up to you, but there’s little doubt that if Boris Johnson was unsuitable material to be PM, then Liz Truss was utterly disastrous.
The Conservative Party won't lose this election because of Rishi Sunak.
Sorry but that's exactly what is happening. People aren't voting for another 5 years of Truss, Boris and their respective Governments. Sunak has had ample time (and six months more if he wanted it) to show what he's about. People have decided they like it somewhat less than a dose of clap.
Well it suits me tbh if you tell yourself this. Make Rishi your Unluckyguy if you like, but it’s delusional.
Until or unless you address the ontological and systemic failures of the Conservative Party going back several years you won’t come anywhere near returning to power.
Not a team player. I think we can expect her to defect in the hope others follow and a forced merger happens with Reform. I suspect that will fail. Either way she is finished in front line politics
If a few more people hadn't been 'team players' the Tories might have ditched Sunak and avoided electoral wipeout.
The seeds of this defeat though were sown before Sunak, and that’s something you on the Right really need to come to terms with.
Whether you go as far back as 2016 is up to you, but there’s little doubt that if Boris Johnson was unsuitable material to be PM, then Liz Truss was utterly disastrous.
The Conservative Party won't lose this election because of Rishi Sunak.
Sorry but that's exactly what is happening. People aren't voting for another 5 years of Truss, Boris and their respective Governments. Sunak has had ample time (and six months more if he wanted it) to show what he's about. People have decided they like it somewhat less than a dose of clap.
The Tory brand was damaged by Boris's shenanigans. If he had been replaced by a sane moderate - say, another Cameron-style leader - then he might have been able to reverse some of the rot. I doubt enough to win a GE, but not get a shellacking.
Instead, we got Truss, who was both blind and inept, and managed to upset enough people that she was soon gone. That further damaged the party. We got Truss because the Tories decided they were not extreme enough, and wanted to go more extreme. And damn the electorate.
We then got Sunak, who inherited an almighty mess. I have some sympathy for the situation he found himself in, but he played a bad hand badly.
So yeah, much of this Tory defeat is down to Johnson and Truss. Sunak didn't help, though.
Interesting albeit obvious point by Chris Mason on the BBC:
'The stand-out fact at the heart of this campaign is that for all the noise and hullaballoo over the past month-and-a-half, the colossal gap in the opinion polls between Labour and the Conservatives has barely budged’
I have feeling we are nearly-all underestimating the visceral hatred of the Conservatives and therefore the extent of tactical voting. I’ve been lulled into this, betting on 100-200 Cons seats when the result could be worse for them.
It's also what the campaign visits by the leaders suggest. Sunak going to places with 20,000+ Tory majorities to try to rescue them, Starmer way out into the rural shires where Conservatives have been returned either since 1950 or back into the reign of Queen Victoria. I caught a snippet of a report on Sky this morning that Davey is off to Hertfordshire today which, since Daisy Cooper isn't exactly holding on by her fingernails, can only be a jaunt to Harpenden and Berkhamsted, which is something like 50th on their target list with a notional Con Maj of 14k.
Essentially, unless the scare tactics being used against elderly Reform switchers work absolutely brilliantly and the Farageiste challenge implodes inside the polling booths, then the Tories are toast, and that's all there is to it.
I’m also really looking forward to switching off @Leon after the election. He’s occasionally correct but 90%+ is just trolling and flaming. A lot of it is incitement-excitement related but also a deep sense of insecurity. No one who is truly clever would find the need to tell everyone else on a daily basis how thick / dumb / low IQ they are.
But it’s more than that. Here’s a guy who had a successful book 20 years ago about male sexual predation. The world then decided to move on from that kind of thinking and he had to re-invent himself using multiple publishing pseudonyms. The raging and railing against ‘woke’ culture needs to be understood in the context of a person who is no longer wanted by the majority of British people. I have lost hope that he can find the humility and self-awareness to address these points.
For all his aggression and fringe fighting, Sean is no longer relevant.
It is very busy here but local facebook groups not registering. Just the usual moans about lost mobile phones, cracks on the pavement, late buses and a flasher on the loose.
You wouldn't know there was a big, possibly seismic erection tomorrow.
gabyhinsliff @gabyhinsliff · 39m who thought getting Boris to do the practically-eve-of-election rally was going to help? All he's doing is reminding part of the Tory vote they'd rather have him as leader & reminding much of the rest of the country why they're not voting Tory
It's the final humiliation of Sunak, having to beg the leader he knifed to come back and sprinkle a touch of glitter on his turd of a campaign.
And absolute delight for Boris, having Rishi beg him to come back to help campaign and try and save a few redwall seats and Leave voting marginals.
If Boris was still leader the Tories would get at least 200 seats on Thursday even if he would likely still have lost
Boris would have gone far enough right to eliminate the chance of a Farage comeback. He might have even given Farage the US ambassadorship to get him out of the country. And he wouldn't have called a GE now. He'd be going in 6 months. And you wouldn't bet against him winning the thing. That's Boris.
Except of course he'd have been recalled and lost his seat in Uxbridge, if he hadn't resigned first. Minor detail.
And the fact he had enough support to have challenged Sunak and won after Truss. But he bottled. Which rather belies his political genius status.
Despite what I said about Boris's electoral chances, had Bojo snatched the leadership back after Truss, Sunak's centrist backstabbers would have been briefing against his 2nd administration from the very beginning. The party would have been uncontrollable until they got their man in. In the long run, this is better. Let the centrist decline managers run the party right into the ground, and visit upon them the full electoral consequences of their policies.
And I didn’t think you liked politicians who splurged fivers like bags of confetti…
Not a team player. I think we can expect her to defect in the hope others follow and a forced merger happens with Reform. I suspect that will fail. Either way she is finished in front line politics
If a few more people hadn't been 'team players' the Tories might have ditched Sunak and avoided electoral wipeout.
Sunak is not the reason for the Tory defeat. Whatever his weaknesses he is just the fall guy. The damage was done by the fall of Johnson and the disastrous Truss weeks. The polling collapsed then, and has never recovered.
I expect a Labour government. I always want one. I've been hoping for and confidently counting down the hours for 2 and a bit years. And now? I don't know how to feel. A little nervous. I'll be crushed if it doesn't happen. But I don't really know how I'll mark it. I have no great expectations of change. At least not soon. But not having to listen to Boris, Braverman, Truss, JRM, Sunak, the Telegraph and the Mail, and take them seriously, because they have the power to affect my life will be a relief and a weight lifted. Maybe I'd sleep for a week if I didn't have to work to pay my outrageous rent? I think perhaps that's how the 40% of the country voting Labour are feeling. Just fucking exhausted by your constant Tory drama about all kinds of shit that simply doesn't matter to folk who work hard and just want to have a bit left over to spend.
Shame they're going to tax you even more and raise your bills still further then.
It is very busy here but local facebook groups not registering. Just the usual moans about lost mobile phones, cracks on the pavement, late buses and a flasher on the loose.
You wouldn't know there was a big, possibly seismic erection tomorrow.
I expect a Labour government. I always want one. I've been hoping for and confidently counting down the hours for 2 and a bit years. And now? I don't know how to feel. A little nervous. I'll be crushed if it doesn't happen. But I don't really know how I'll mark it. I have no great expectations of change. At least not soon. But not having to listen to Boris, Braverman, Truss, JRM, Sunak, the Telegraph and the Mail, and take them seriously, because they have the power to affect my life will be a relief and a weight lifted. Maybe I'd sleep for a week if I didn't have to work to pay my outrageous rent? I think perhaps that's how the 40% of the country voting Labour are feeling. Just fucking exhausted by your constant Tory drama about all kinds of shit that simply doesn't matter to folk who work hard and just want to have a bit left over to spend.
Shame they're going to tax you even more and raise your bills still further then.
I expect a Labour government. I always want one. I've been hoping for and confidently counting down the hours for 2 and a bit years. And now? I don't know how to feel. A little nervous. I'll be crushed if it doesn't happen. But I don't really know how I'll mark it. I have no great expectations of change. At least not soon. But not having to listen to Boris, Braverman, Truss, JRM, Sunak, the Telegraph and the Mail, and take them seriously, because they have the power to affect my life will be a relief and a weight lifted. Maybe I'd sleep for a week if I didn't have to work to pay my outrageous rent? I think perhaps that's how the 40% of the country voting Labour are feeling. Just fucking exhausted by your constant Tory drama about all kinds of shit that simply doesn't matter to folk who work hard and just want to have a bit left over to spend.
Shame they're going to tax you even more and raise your bills still further then.
Of the 18 main grounds for the first-class counties, 11 are in constituencies won by Labour at GE2019, and 7 won by the Conservatives. I have identified 24 outgrounds used reasonably recently (this millennium, and with a plausible* expectation of a future return) for first-class cricket, of which the Tories won 19, Labour 3 and the Liberal Democrats 2 at GE2019.
I'm not seeing any obvious prospects for Green or Reform gains of cricket grounds, but Labour and the Liberal Democrats have plenty of targets, and I'd think the Tories could be reasonably confident of four or five holds among the outgrounds, at least.
The most likely Tory hold among the main county cricket grounds may be a surprise to some. Anyone care to guess?
* As judged by me.
I thought Chelmsford was still looking likely Tory, so the imaginatively named county ground (Essex)?
I have Chelmsford in my head as a possible Lib Dem gain. They were behind by only 46-37 in 2010, and there was a fairly chunky 14% UKIP vote in 2015, so I'm assuming that Reform will take a large number of votes this time, and the Lib Dems should be able to convince the 2019 Labour voters to vote tactically, because the boundaries haven't changed much (only losing the outlying village of Galleywood to the south).
Ford could scrape home via a split opposition vote
I don’t think the opposition will be split in Chelmsford. One of the likelier LibDem gains.
Not a team player. I think we can expect her to defect in the hope others follow and a forced merger happens with Reform. I suspect that will fail. Either way she is finished in front line politics
If a few more people hadn't been 'team players' the Tories might have ditched Sunak and avoided electoral wipeout.
The seeds of this defeat though were sown before Sunak, and that’s something you on the Right really need to come to terms with.
Whether you go as far back as 2016 is up to you, but there’s little doubt that if Boris Johnson was unsuitable material to be PM, then Liz Truss was utterly disastrous.
The Conservative Party won't lose this election because of Rishi Sunak.
Sorry but that's exactly what is happening. People aren't voting for another 5 years of Truss, Boris and their respective Governments. Sunak has had ample time (and six months more if he wanted it) to show what he's about. People have decided they like it somewhat less than a dose of clap.
At least he got that time. Your heroine Truss was so awful she was only PM for 49 days.
I expect a Labour government. I always want one. I've been hoping for and confidently counting down the hours for 2 and a bit years. And now? I don't know how to feel. A little nervous. I'll be crushed if it doesn't happen. But I don't really know how I'll mark it. I have no great expectations of change. At least not soon. But not having to listen to Boris, Braverman, Truss, JRM, Sunak, the Telegraph and the Mail, and take them seriously, because they have the power to affect my life will be a relief and a weight lifted. Maybe I'd sleep for a week if I didn't have to work to pay my outrageous rent? I think perhaps that's how the 40% of the country voting Labour are feeling. Just fucking exhausted by your constant Tory drama about all kinds of shit that simply doesn't matter to folk who work hard and just want to have a bit left over to spend.
Shame they're going to tax you even more and raise your bills still further then.
No they’re not. The Conservatives are the tax and spend party now. The problem is that no-one knows how they’re spending any of the money they appropriate. You need to cast your eye over your team with a critical eye, CR. They need the sort of scrutiny you refuse to give them. Even I’m going to lend Labour my vote this time.
I find it bizarre that they continue to think he has some star power , and that some Tories think if only he was still there it would all have worked out well in this election .
He left office in disgrace , failed in his alleged leveling up agenda, oversaw a huge increase in migration , some are willing to overlook that he’s a pathological liar but the vast majority of the public aren’t fooled .
Sunak is simply the fall guy , I have no time for him but really come Friday it should be Truss and Johnson who should take the large share of blame .
It is very busy here but local facebook groups not registering. Just the usual moans about lost mobile phones, cracks on the pavement, late buses and a flasher on the loose.
You wouldn't know there was a big, possibly seismic erection tomorrow.
No one talks about politics in local FB groups. Many (most?) have rules explicitly against it. Ours do.
Do we know what opinion polls and MRPs are due today? I know that there’s the final IPSOS-MORI tomorrow morning in the Evening Standard but what pollster delights lie in store today please?
More importantly what is the Unknown Stuntman's big finale....
Please let it be fired from a rocket..... Then send the battle us out with 'Rocketman' blaring out...
I expect a Labour government. I always want one. I've been hoping for and confidently counting down the hours for 2 and a bit years. And now? I don't know how to feel. A little nervous. I'll be crushed if it doesn't happen. But I don't really know how I'll mark it. I have no great expectations of change. At least not soon. But not having to listen to Boris, Braverman, Truss, JRM, Sunak, the Telegraph and the Mail, and take them seriously, because they have the power to affect my life will be a relief and a weight lifted. Maybe I'd sleep for a week if I didn't have to work to pay my outrageous rent? I think perhaps that's how the 40% of the country voting Labour are feeling. Just fucking exhausted by your constant Tory drama about all kinds of shit that simply doesn't matter to folk who work hard and just want to have a bit left over to spend.
Shame they're going to tax you even more and raise your bills still further then.
No, they're going to tax people like you.
Ah, yes, that old chestnut: they'll leave me alone but go after others instead.
It is very busy here but local facebook groups not registering. Just the usual moans about lost mobile phones, cracks on the pavement, late buses and a flasher on the loose.
You wouldn't know there was a big, possibly seismic erection tomorrow.
No one talks about politics in local FB groups. Many (most?) have rules explicitly against it. Ours do.
I am more astonished that people are still using FB.....
I expect a Labour government. I always want one. I've been hoping for and confidently counting down the hours for 2 and a bit years. And now? I don't know how to feel. A little nervous. I'll be crushed if it doesn't happen. But I don't really know how I'll mark it. I have no great expectations of change. At least not soon. But not having to listen to Boris, Braverman, Truss, JRM, Sunak, the Telegraph and the Mail, and take them seriously, because they have the power to affect my life will be a relief and a weight lifted. Maybe I'd sleep for a week if I didn't have to work to pay my outrageous rent? I think perhaps that's how the 40% of the country voting Labour are feeling. Just fucking exhausted by your constant Tory drama about all kinds of shit that simply doesn't matter to folk who work hard and just want to have a bit left over to spend.
Shame they're going to tax you even more and raise your bills still further then.
No they’re not. The Conservatives are the tax and spend party now. The problem is that no-one knows how they’re spending any of the money they appropriate. You need to cast your eye over your team with a critical eye, CR. They need the sort of scrutiny you refuse to give them. Even I’m going to lend Labour my vote this time.
No, Labour are the tax and spend party.
Always have been, always will be. And it's them you've failed to scrutinise in this election. Entirely.
I expect a Labour government. I always want one. I've been hoping for and confidently counting down the hours for 2 and a bit years. And now? I don't know how to feel. A little nervous. I'll be crushed if it doesn't happen. But I don't really know how I'll mark it. I have no great expectations of change. At least not soon. But not having to listen to Boris, Braverman, Truss, JRM, Sunak, the Telegraph and the Mail, and take them seriously, because they have the power to affect my life will be a relief and a weight lifted. Maybe I'd sleep for a week if I didn't have to work to pay my outrageous rent? I think perhaps that's how the 40% of the country voting Labour are feeling. Just fucking exhausted by your constant Tory drama about all kinds of shit that simply doesn't matter to folk who work hard and just want to have a bit left over to spend.
Shame they're going to tax you even more and raise your bills still further then.
No they’re not. The Conservatives are the tax and spend party now. The problem is that no-one knows how they’re spending any of the money they appropriate. You need to cast your eye over your team with a critical eye, CR. They need the sort of scrutiny you refuse to give them. Even I’m going to lend Labour my vote this time.
The truth is that even to stand still needs more money, yet there are inexorable demographic and other pressures all around. The big lie of the election is to avoid the fact that, somehow, taxes will have to go up whoever wins. The only reason the Tories are playing this so hard - despite their record - is that they know this and don't expect to win.
Not a team player. I think we can expect her to defect in the hope others follow and a forced merger happens with Reform. I suspect that will fail. Either way she is finished in front line politics
If a few more people hadn't been 'team players' the Tories might have ditched Sunak and avoided electoral wipeout.
Sunak is not the reason for the Tory defeat. Whatever his weaknesses he is just the fall guy. The damage was done by the fall of Johnson and the disastrous Truss weeks. The polling collapsed then, and has never recovered.
"The buck stops here"
He became PM, he is responsible. If he didn't want to take responsibility then he shouldn't have become PM.
The polls falling in midterm is normal. Instead of a recovery, as is normal towards the election, he has made things worse with national service and other rubbish.
It is very busy here but local facebook groups not registering. Just the usual moans about lost mobile phones, cracks on the pavement, late buses and a flasher on the loose.
You wouldn't know there was a big, possibly seismic erection tomorrow.
No one talks about politics in local FB groups. Many (most?) have rules explicitly against it. Ours do.
Ours talked about little else during the by election when nadine went off in a huff.
We have two , both with about 10,000 members, one run by town independent councillors and the other set up in protest after one too many expulsions, where the Tory councillors and ex councillors hold fort.
Someone did a voodoo poll of who was most likely to beat the tories after the election was called but before Farage reappeared.
Several hundred voted. 2/3 said Labour 1/3 said reform.
Not a team player. I think we can expect her to defect in the hope others follow and a forced merger happens with Reform. I suspect that will fail. Either way she is finished in front line politics
If a few more people hadn't been 'team players' the Tories might have ditched Sunak and avoided electoral wipeout.
The seeds of this defeat though were sown before Sunak, and that’s something you on the Right really need to come to terms with.
Whether you go as far back as 2016 is up to you, but there’s little doubt that if Boris Johnson was unsuitable material to be PM, then Liz Truss was utterly disastrous.
The Conservative Party won't lose this election because of Rishi Sunak.
Sorry but that's exactly what is happening. People aren't voting for another 5 years of Truss, Boris and their respective Governments. Sunak has had ample time (and six months more if he wanted it) to show what he's about. People have decided they like it somewhat less than a dose of clap.
Correct. People aren’t voting for Truss or Boris, but they’re not voting for Sunak either. They’re voting for a local candidate who is affiliated to a party that allowed that to happen.
Personally I think the purge of the centre right (Hammond, Gauke, Javid, Stewart etc) is coming home to roost. Centre right voters are looking at the options and choosing the one that matches their views.
Third point is that competence comes into it. Would you rather have a PM is very competent but a 90% to your politics; or a complete incompetent who is 100% aligned (agian think party nor PM)
Great spot from Andy - I hadn't noticed this. Survation have adjusted for mortality.
Wonder if this might have something to do with why Survation's MRP had the combined Reform + Con vote (35%) lower than most polls have it (~37-38% or so).
Predictions from the model are post-stratified using a post-stratification frame which is built on the most recent census data (2021 for England and Wales, 2011 for Scotland). Past vote was imputed and then adjusted to match notional 2019 results for each constituency. We applied mortality adjustments to the post-stratification frame to account for differential mortality between supporters of different parties who vary in their average age.
Does this explain why Survation differs to other pollsters?
Do other pollsters do this too?
Seems to me - since Dec 2019 it's been 4.5 years, and we've had COVID. The vast majority of those aged 70+ in Dec 2019 voted Tory. If other pollsters don't account for this it could be a big reason for poll disparities?
I’m also really looking forward to switching off @Leon after the election. He’s occasionally correct but 90%+ is just trolling and flaming. A lot of it is incitement-excitement related but also a deep sense of insecurity. No one who is truly clever would find the need to tell everyone else on a daily basis how thick / dumb / low IQ they are.
But it’s more than that. Here’s a guy who had a successful book 20 years ago about male sexual predation. The world then decided to move on from that kind of thinking and he had to re-invent himself using multiple publishing pseudonyms. The raging and railing against ‘woke’ culture needs to be understood in the context of a person who is no longer wanted by the majority of British people. I have lost hope that he can find the humility and self-awareness to address these points.
For all his aggression and fringe fighting, Sean is no longer relevant.
Methinks you doth protest too much. Is it envy or a crush I ask myself
I’m also really looking forward to switching off @Leon after the election. He’s occasionally correct but 90%+ is just trolling and flaming. A lot of it is incitement-excitement related but also a deep sense of insecurity. No one who is truly clever would find the need to tell everyone else on a daily basis how thick / dumb / low IQ they are.
But it’s more than that. Here’s a guy who had a successful book 20 years ago about male sexual predation. The world then decided to move on from that kind of thinking and he had to re-invent himself using multiple publishing pseudonyms. The raging and railing against ‘woke’ culture needs to be understood in the context of a person who is no longer wanted by the majority of British people. I have lost hope that he can find the humility and self-awareness to address these points.
For all his aggression and fringe fighting, Sean is no longer relevant.
Methinks you doth protest too much. Is it envy or a crush I ask myself
I find it bizarre that they continue to think he has some star power , and that some Tories think if only he was still there it would all have worked out well in this election .
He left office in disgrace , failed in his alleged leveling up agenda, oversaw a huge increase in migration , some are willing to overlook that he’s a pathological liar but the vast majority of the public aren’t fooled .
Sunak is simply the fall guy , I have no time for him but really come Friday it should be Truss and Johnson who should take the large share of blame .
Indeed and Johnson’s pathetic will-he won’t-he leadership attempt two years ago lost him a lot of remaining support in Westminster.
Not a team player. I think we can expect her to defect in the hope others follow and a forced merger happens with Reform. I suspect that will fail. Either way she is finished in front line politics
If a few more people hadn't been 'team players' the Tories might have ditched Sunak and avoided electoral wipeout.
And bought back Liz?
No, though on the strength of current polling, that would have been an improvement. At the very least she'd have given Tory MPs another 6 months in gainful employment.
Gainful for them; it certainly isn’t helping anyone else.
I reckon reasons for not waiting until the end of the year will come out in due course, possibly somewhere between the US and the King and the expected economic data.
The Tories went from being ahead to being significantly behind under Johnson, and dropped to very significantly behind after Truss. There was no coming back from those two, and since then, there hasn’t been.
Rishi has disappointed, but he inherited a hand that was almost impossible to play.
Yeah, I have a smidge of pity for Sunak. It’s not all on him why the Tories are going to get pasted. He could have played his cards better, but it wasn’t his hand.
This beating is on Johnson, for being a lying huckster, on Truss, for being a tone deaf ideologue, on May for making poor choices and on Cameron for his blind arrogance.
But more than any of those individuals it’s on the Tory party for failing to understand modern Britain and its needs. Cossetting the aged whilst fleecing the young, focusing on culture wars whilst the infrastructure degrades, failing to understand the needs of small businesses. They deserve everything they are going to get tomorrow.
I expect a Labour government. I always want one. I've been hoping for and confidently counting down the hours for 2 and a bit years. And now? I don't know how to feel. A little nervous. I'll be crushed if it doesn't happen. But I don't really know how I'll mark it. I have no great expectations of change. At least not soon. But not having to listen to Boris, Braverman, Truss, JRM, Sunak, the Telegraph and the Mail, and take them seriously, because they have the power to affect my life will be a relief and a weight lifted. Maybe I'd sleep for a week if I didn't have to work to pay my outrageous rent? I think perhaps that's how the 40% of the country voting Labour are feeling. Just fucking exhausted by your constant Tory drama about all kinds of shit that simply doesn't matter to folk who work hard and just want to have a bit left over to spend.
Shame they're going to tax you even more and raise your bills still further then.
No they’re not. The Conservatives are the tax and spend party now. The problem is that no-one knows how they’re spending any of the money they appropriate. You need to cast your eye over your team with a critical eye, CR. They need the sort of scrutiny you refuse to give them. Even I’m going to lend Labour my vote this time.
A fair amount of the "spend" seems to have gone on contracts that should never have been awarded. Then there's brining their favoured sector of the electorate and probably the rest gone in running excessive waiting lists, repairs on unmaintained infrastructure, Brexit overhead etc. You can waste a lot of money being "cheap".
I expect a Labour government. I always want one. I've been hoping for and confidently counting down the hours for 2 and a bit years. And now? I don't know how to feel. A little nervous. I'll be crushed if it doesn't happen. But I don't really know how I'll mark it. I have no great expectations of change. At least not soon. But not having to listen to Boris, Braverman, Truss, JRM, Sunak, the Telegraph and the Mail, and take them seriously, because they have the power to affect my life will be a relief and a weight lifted. Maybe I'd sleep for a week if I didn't have to work to pay my outrageous rent? I think perhaps that's how the 40% of the country voting Labour are feeling. Just fucking exhausted by your constant Tory drama about all kinds of shit that simply doesn't matter to folk who work hard and just want to have a bit left over to spend.
Shame they're going to tax you even more and raise your bills still further then.
No they’re not. The Conservatives are the tax and spend party now. The problem is that no-one knows how they’re spending any of the money they appropriate. You need to cast your eye over your team with a critical eye, CR. They need the sort of scrutiny you refuse to give them. Even I’m going to lend Labour my vote this time.
No, Labour are the tax and spend party.
Always have been, always will be. And it's them you've failed to scrutinise in this election. Entirely.
A shock is coming for you.
I don’t really see how the Conservatives can have the gall to lecture others about tax and spend.
I have never in my entire life seen such high levels of taxation and unaccountable Government debt.
I expect a Labour government. I always want one. I've been hoping for and confidently counting down the hours for 2 and a bit years. And now? I don't know how to feel. A little nervous. I'll be crushed if it doesn't happen. But I don't really know how I'll mark it. I have no great expectations of change. At least not soon. But not having to listen to Boris, Braverman, Truss, JRM, Sunak, the Telegraph and the Mail, and take them seriously, because they have the power to affect my life will be a relief and a weight lifted. Maybe I'd sleep for a week if I didn't have to work to pay my outrageous rent? I think perhaps that's how the 40% of the country voting Labour are feeling. Just fucking exhausted by your constant Tory drama about all kinds of shit that simply doesn't matter to folk who work hard and just want to have a bit left over to spend.
Shame they're going to tax you even more and raise your bills still further then.
No they’re not. The Conservatives are the tax and spend party now. The problem is that no-one knows how they’re spending any of the money they appropriate. You need to cast your eye over your team with a critical eye, CR. They need the sort of scrutiny you refuse to give them. Even I’m going to lend Labour my vote this time.
No, Labour are the tax and spend party.
Always have been, always will be. And it's them you've failed to scrutinise in this election. Entirely.
A shock is coming for you.
I’ve been beaten and left in a ditch by the Tories. I don’t expect miracles from Labour but your party has left me and my family worse off and made the country a much nastier place. The shock will be good governance. Your blind loyalty to the Conservative Party leaves you…well…blind. Look at the record FFS! Read something other than what CCHQ pumps out. You have utterly failed to scrutinise or appreciate the harm you have done to aspirational earners. No party that has done this much damage can be rewarded with a vote. You gave us Truss. Who next will you foist on us?
Not all of us were born wealthy. Unlike you I had nothing and have made something with my life. I’m sick of having a government that rewards the hard work I’ve done with contempt. This isn’t football, it’s not about your team, scrutiny is everything. You just go “Tories, yah yah yah”. You have to examine the records of the parties concerned.
I expect a Labour government. I always want one. I've been hoping for and confidently counting down the hours for 2 and a bit years. And now? I don't know how to feel. A little nervous. I'll be crushed if it doesn't happen. But I don't really know how I'll mark it. I have no great expectations of change. At least not soon. But not having to listen to Boris, Braverman, Truss, JRM, Sunak, the Telegraph and the Mail, and take them seriously, because they have the power to affect my life will be a relief and a weight lifted. Maybe I'd sleep for a week if I didn't have to work to pay my outrageous rent? I think perhaps that's how the 40% of the country voting Labour are feeling. Just fucking exhausted by your constant Tory drama about all kinds of shit that simply doesn't matter to folk who work hard and just want to have a bit left over to spend.
Shame they're going to tax you even more and raise your bills still further then.
No they’re not. The Conservatives are the tax and spend party now. The problem is that no-one knows how they’re spending any of the money they appropriate. You need to cast your eye over your team with a critical eye, CR. They need the sort of scrutiny you refuse to give them. Even I’m going to lend Labour my vote this time.
No, Labour are the tax and spend party.
Always have been, always will be. And it's them you've failed to scrutinise in this election. Entirely.
A shock is coming for you.
I’ve been beaten and left in a ditch by the Tories. I don’t expect miracles from Labour but your party has left me and my family worse off and made the country a much nastier place. The shock will be good governance. Your blind loyalty to the Conservative Party leaves you…well…blind. Look at the record FFS! Read something other than what CCHQ pumps out. You have utterly failed to scrutinise or appreciate the harm you have done to aspirational earners. No party that has done this much damage can be rewarded with a vote. You gave us Truss. Who next will you foist on us?
Not all of us were born wealthy. Unlike you I had nothing and have made something with my life. I’m sick of having a government that rewards the hard work I’ve done with contempt. This isn’t football, it’s not about your team, scrutiny is everything. You just go “Tories, yah yah yah”. You have to examine the records of the parties concerned.
You really are a fool.
I had nothing either. I start with zero in the bank.
If Labour tax me more but the country’s finances and public services improve, then great.
That's generally my view, but there are limits. If taxes (as an extreme example) double, but public services improve by only 1% (*), then it's stoopid. Tax more, but spend wisely. Encourage growth.
(*) Impossible to measure, but you get what I mean.
I expect a Labour government. I always want one. I've been hoping for and confidently counting down the hours for 2 and a bit years. And now? I don't know how to feel. A little nervous. I'll be crushed if it doesn't happen. But I don't really know how I'll mark it. I have no great expectations of change. At least not soon. But not having to listen to Boris, Braverman, Truss, JRM, Sunak, the Telegraph and the Mail, and take them seriously, because they have the power to affect my life will be a relief and a weight lifted. Maybe I'd sleep for a week if I didn't have to work to pay my outrageous rent? I think perhaps that's how the 40% of the country voting Labour are feeling. Just fucking exhausted by your constant Tory drama about all kinds of shit that simply doesn't matter to folk who work hard and just want to have a bit left over to spend.
Shame they're going to tax you even more and raise your bills still further then.
No they’re not. The Conservatives are the tax and spend party now. The problem is that no-one knows how they’re spending any of the money they appropriate. You need to cast your eye over your team with a critical eye, CR. They need the sort of scrutiny you refuse to give them. Even I’m going to lend Labour my vote this time.
No, Labour are the tax and spend party.
Always have been, always will be. And it's them you've failed to scrutinise in this election. Entirely.
A shock is coming for you.
I don’t really see how the Conservatives can have the gall to lecture others about tax and spend.
I have never in my entire life seen such high levels of taxation and unaccountable Government debt.
You really don’t have a leg to stand on.
Well, shortly, you will see levels of taxation and debt even higher still. Beyond your wildest dreams.
Worth reminding ourselves that at the last election, Labour put in their worst performance since 1935, returning just 202 MPs.
That was why Mike repeatedly reminded us that we are likely about to witness is near-impossible.
If people like Big John lay into Labour tomorrow (eg wrf Corbyn in 2017) please do bear this in mind. We’ve become used to the idea now, but the turnaround is truly epochal.
If Labour tax me more but the country’s finances and public services improve, then great.
That's generally my view, but there are limits. If taxes (as an extreme example) double, but public services improve by only 1% (*), then it's stoopid. Tax more, but spend wisely. Encourage growth.
(*) Impossible to measure, but you get what I mean.
I don’t disagree. We’ll have to see. One thing we don’t have to see about is that the Tories have failed spectacularly in almost all aspects of governance.
I expect a Labour government. I always want one. I've been hoping for and confidently counting down the hours for 2 and a bit years. And now? I don't know how to feel. A little nervous. I'll be crushed if it doesn't happen. But I don't really know how I'll mark it. I have no great expectations of change. At least not soon. But not having to listen to Boris, Braverman, Truss, JRM, Sunak, the Telegraph and the Mail, and take them seriously, because they have the power to affect my life will be a relief and a weight lifted. Maybe I'd sleep for a week if I didn't have to work to pay my outrageous rent? I think perhaps that's how the 40% of the country voting Labour are feeling. Just fucking exhausted by your constant Tory drama about all kinds of shit that simply doesn't matter to folk who work hard and just want to have a bit left over to spend.
Shame they're going to tax you even more and raise your bills still further then.
No, they're going to tax people like you.
Joy for the idle , the lazy, boat people , etc and a disaster for successful people who have worked hard. It is the English way , the Tories steal it and Labour steal it and give some to the workshy , ne'er do wells and idlers. The cheering will not last long as the next set of wasters get at the trough, set all their pals up etc and will be 5 more years of crap and whining.
I expect a Labour government. I always want one. I've been hoping for and confidently counting down the hours for 2 and a bit years. And now? I don't know how to feel. A little nervous. I'll be crushed if it doesn't happen. But I don't really know how I'll mark it. I have no great expectations of change. At least not soon. But not having to listen to Boris, Braverman, Truss, JRM, Sunak, the Telegraph and the Mail, and take them seriously, because they have the power to affect my life will be a relief and a weight lifted. Maybe I'd sleep for a week if I didn't have to work to pay my outrageous rent? I think perhaps that's how the 40% of the country voting Labour are feeling. Just fucking exhausted by your constant Tory drama about all kinds of shit that simply doesn't matter to folk who work hard and just want to have a bit left over to spend.
Shame they're going to tax you even more and raise your bills still further then.
No they’re not. The Conservatives are the tax and spend party now. The problem is that no-one knows how they’re spending any of the money they appropriate. You need to cast your eye over your team with a critical eye, CR. They need the sort of scrutiny you refuse to give them. Even I’m going to lend Labour my vote this time.
No, Labour are the tax and spend party.
Always have been, always will be. And it's them you've failed to scrutinise in this election. Entirely.
A shock is coming for you.
I don’t really see how the Conservatives can have the gall to lecture others about tax and spend.
I have never in my entire life seen such high levels of taxation and unaccountable Government debt.
You really don’t have a leg to stand on.
Well, shortly, you will see levels of taxation and debt even higher still. Beyond your wildest dreams.
I expect a Labour government. I always want one. I've been hoping for and confidently counting down the hours for 2 and a bit years. And now? I don't know how to feel. A little nervous. I'll be crushed if it doesn't happen. But I don't really know how I'll mark it. I have no great expectations of change. At least not soon. But not having to listen to Boris, Braverman, Truss, JRM, Sunak, the Telegraph and the Mail, and take them seriously, because they have the power to affect my life will be a relief and a weight lifted. Maybe I'd sleep for a week if I didn't have to work to pay my outrageous rent? I think perhaps that's how the 40% of the country voting Labour are feeling. Just fucking exhausted by your constant Tory drama about all kinds of shit that simply doesn't matter to folk who work hard and just want to have a bit left over to spend.
Shame they're going to tax you even more and raise your bills still further then.
No they’re not. The Conservatives are the tax and spend party now. The problem is that no-one knows how they’re spending any of the money they appropriate. You need to cast your eye over your team with a critical eye, CR. They need the sort of scrutiny you refuse to give them. Even I’m going to lend Labour my vote this time.
No, Labour are the tax and spend party.
Always have been, always will be. And it's them you've failed to scrutinise in this election. Entirely.
A shock is coming for you.
I don’t really see how the Conservatives can have the gall to lecture others about tax and spend.
I have never in my entire life seen such high levels of taxation and unaccountable Government debt.
You really don’t have a leg to stand on.
Well, shortly, you will see levels of taxation and debt even higher still. Beyond your wildest dreams.
If you vote for the beast, expect the beasting.
Labour may be the beast but today's Tories are Gaston.
I expect a Labour government. I always want one. I've been hoping for and confidently counting down the hours for 2 and a bit years. And now? I don't know how to feel. A little nervous. I'll be crushed if it doesn't happen. But I don't really know how I'll mark it. I have no great expectations of change. At least not soon. But not having to listen to Boris, Braverman, Truss, JRM, Sunak, the Telegraph and the Mail, and take them seriously, because they have the power to affect my life will be a relief and a weight lifted. Maybe I'd sleep for a week if I didn't have to work to pay my outrageous rent? I think perhaps that's how the 40% of the country voting Labour are feeling. Just fucking exhausted by your constant Tory drama about all kinds of shit that simply doesn't matter to folk who work hard and just want to have a bit left over to spend.
Shame they're going to tax you even more and raise your bills still further then.
No they’re not. The Conservatives are the tax and spend party now. The problem is that no-one knows how they’re spending any of the money they appropriate. You need to cast your eye over your team with a critical eye, CR. They need the sort of scrutiny you refuse to give them. Even I’m going to lend Labour my vote this time.
No, Labour are the tax and spend party.
Always have been, always will be. And it's them you've failed to scrutinise in this election. Entirely.
A shock is coming for you.
I don’t really see how the Conservatives can have the gall to lecture others about tax and spend.
I have never in my entire life seen such high levels of taxation and unaccountable Government debt.
You really don’t have a leg to stand on.
Well, shortly, you will see levels of taxation and debt even higher still. Beyond your wildest dreams.
If you vote for the beast, expect the beasting.
Blair under the bed 👹
Lol
I can just remember his sort of panic before 1997.
I expect a Labour government. I always want one. I've been hoping for and confidently counting down the hours for 2 and a bit years. And now? I don't know how to feel. A little nervous. I'll be crushed if it doesn't happen. But I don't really know how I'll mark it. I have no great expectations of change. At least not soon. But not having to listen to Boris, Braverman, Truss, JRM, Sunak, the Telegraph and the Mail, and take them seriously, because they have the power to affect my life will be a relief and a weight lifted. Maybe I'd sleep for a week if I didn't have to work to pay my outrageous rent? I think perhaps that's how the 40% of the country voting Labour are feeling. Just fucking exhausted by your constant Tory drama about all kinds of shit that simply doesn't matter to folk who work hard and just want to have a bit left over to spend.
Shame they're going to tax you even more and raise your bills still further then.
No they’re not. The Conservatives are the tax and spend party now. The problem is that no-one knows how they’re spending any of the money they appropriate. You need to cast your eye over your team with a critical eye, CR. They need the sort of scrutiny you refuse to give them. Even I’m going to lend Labour my vote this time.
No, Labour are the tax and spend party.
Always have been, always will be. And it's them you've failed to scrutinise in this election. Entirely.
A shock is coming for you.
I don’t really see how the Conservatives can have the gall to lecture others about tax and spend.
I have never in my entire life seen such high levels of taxation and unaccountable Government debt.
You really don’t have a leg to stand on.
Well, shortly, you will see levels of taxation and debt even higher still. Beyond your wildest dreams.
If you vote for the beast, expect the beasting.
What grates is the sense that the taxing Tories have been doing is being poured into the pockets of donors and pals via poorly scrutinised contracts. It’s all rather felt like a launderette, and we the people have not benefited.
It is very busy here but local facebook groups not registering. Just the usual moans about lost mobile phones, cracks on the pavement, late buses and a flasher on the loose.
You wouldn't know there was a big, possibly seismic erection tomorrow.
No one talks about politics in local FB groups. Many (most?) have rules explicitly against it. Ours do.
I am more astonished that people are still using FB.....
I expect a Labour government. I always want one. I've been hoping for and confidently counting down the hours for 2 and a bit years. And now? I don't know how to feel. A little nervous. I'll be crushed if it doesn't happen. But I don't really know how I'll mark it. I have no great expectations of change. At least not soon. But not having to listen to Boris, Braverman, Truss, JRM, Sunak, the Telegraph and the Mail, and take them seriously, because they have the power to affect my life will be a relief and a weight lifted. Maybe I'd sleep for a week if I didn't have to work to pay my outrageous rent? I think perhaps that's how the 40% of the country voting Labour are feeling. Just fucking exhausted by your constant Tory drama about all kinds of shit that simply doesn't matter to folk who work hard and just want to have a bit left over to spend.
Shame they're going to tax you even more and raise your bills still further then.
No they’re not. The Conservatives are the tax and spend party now. The problem is that no-one knows how they’re spending any of the money they appropriate. You need to cast your eye over your team with a critical eye, CR. They need the sort of scrutiny you refuse to give them. Even I’m going to lend Labour my vote this time.
The truth is that even to stand still needs more money, yet there are inexorable demographic and other pressures all around. The big lie of the election is to avoid the fact that, somehow, taxes will have to go up whoever wins. The only reason the Tories are playing this so hard - despite their record - is that they know this and don't expect to win.
Labour have always been liars and they are strting off as if they mean to cement their reputation big time.
Tax and spend is not in and of itself a bad thing. If you spend on infrastructure for future growth, core services, or debt reduction that is fine by me.
Worth reminding ourselves that at the last election, Labour put in their worst performance since 1935, returning just 202 MPs.
That was why Mike repeatedly reminded us that we are likely about to witness is near-impossible.
If people like Big John lay into Labour tomorrow (eg wrf Corbyn in 2017) please do bear this in mind. We’ve become used to the idea now, but the turnaround is truly epochal.
I’ve always disputed that narrative. Labour’s defeat in 2019 was skewed by circumstance. The defeats of the 1980s were in many ways worse. Especially the SDP election.
Not a team player. I think we can expect her to defect in the hope others follow and a forced merger happens with Reform. I suspect that will fail. Either way she is finished in front line politics
If a few more people hadn't been 'team players' the Tories might have ditched Sunak and avoided electoral wipeout.
The seeds of this defeat though were sown before Sunak, and that’s something you on the Right really need to come to terms with.
Whether you go as far back as 2016 is up to you, but there’s little doubt that if Boris Johnson was unsuitable material to be PM, then Liz Truss was utterly disastrous.
The Conservative Party won't lose this election because of Rishi Sunak.
Sorry but that's exactly what is happening. People aren't voting for another 5 years of Truss, Boris and their respective Governments. Sunak has had ample time (and six months more if he wanted it) to show what he's about. People have decided they like it somewhat less than a dose of clap.
The Tory brand was damaged by Boris's shenanigans. If he had been replaced by a sane moderate - say, another Cameron-style leader - then he might have been able to reverse some of the rot. I doubt enough to win a GE, but not get a shellacking.
Instead, we got Truss, who was both blind and inept, and managed to upset enough people that she was soon gone. That further damaged the party. We got Truss because the Tories decided they were not extreme enough, and wanted to go more extreme. And damn the electorate.
We then got Sunak, who inherited an almighty mess. I have some sympathy for the situation he found himself in, but he played a bad hand badly.
So yeah, much of this Tory defeat is down to Johnson and Truss. Sunak didn't help, though.
The polling figures on both Johnson and Truss are very clear. Boris was about 4 points behind. Truss was polling at the (then) disastrous level of 19 at the nadir of her Government. Polling on an administration does not get worse in retrospect when that administration leaves office. These are simply risible excuses with zero basis in any sort of psephology to excuse the fact that the centrist, managerialist EU-friendly 'grown ups' that PB shrewdies had longed for came back into the room - even Cameron came back into the room ffs, and the outcome looks to be the worst Tory election result in our lifetimes.
Its all getting a bit prickly on here this morning....
We don't want to be going softcock as we approach the witching hour. On Friday morning the tories must be derided with violent, sexually charged invective until our throats bleed.
I’m also really looking forward to switching off @Leon after the election. He’s occasionally correct but 90%+ is just trolling and flaming. A lot of it is incitement-excitement related but also a deep sense of insecurity. No one who is truly clever would find the need to tell everyone else on a daily basis how thick / dumb / low IQ they are.
But it’s more than that. Here’s a guy who had a successful book 20 years ago about male sexual predation. The world then decided to move on from that kind of thinking and he had to re-invent himself using multiple publishing pseudonyms. The raging and railing against ‘woke’ culture needs to be understood in the context of a person who is no longer wanted by the majority of British people. I have lost hope that he can find the humility and self-awareness to address these points.
For all his aggression and fringe fighting, Sean is no longer relevant.
Methinks you doth protest too much. Is it envy or a crush I ask myself
I expect a Labour government. I always want one. I've been hoping for and confidently counting down the hours for 2 and a bit years. And now? I don't know how to feel. A little nervous. I'll be crushed if it doesn't happen. But I don't really know how I'll mark it. I have no great expectations of change. At least not soon. But not having to listen to Boris, Braverman, Truss, JRM, Sunak, the Telegraph and the Mail, and take them seriously, because they have the power to affect my life will be a relief and a weight lifted. Maybe I'd sleep for a week if I didn't have to work to pay my outrageous rent? I think perhaps that's how the 40% of the country voting Labour are feeling. Just fucking exhausted by your constant Tory drama about all kinds of shit that simply doesn't matter to folk who work hard and just want to have a bit left over to spend.
Shame they're going to tax you even more and raise your bills still further then.
No they’re not. The Conservatives are the tax and spend party now. The problem is that no-one knows how they’re spending any of the money they appropriate. You need to cast your eye over your team with a critical eye, CR. They need the sort of scrutiny you refuse to give them. Even I’m going to lend Labour my vote this time.
No, Labour are the tax and spend party.
Always have been, always will be. And it's them you've failed to scrutinise in this election. Entirely.
A shock is coming for you.
I don’t really see how the Conservatives can have the gall to lecture others about tax and spend.
I have never in my entire life seen such high levels of taxation and unaccountable Government debt.
You really don’t have a leg to stand on.
Well, shortly, you will see levels of taxation and debt even higher still. Beyond your wildest dreams.
I expect a Labour government. I always want one. I've been hoping for and confidently counting down the hours for 2 and a bit years. And now? I don't know how to feel. A little nervous. I'll be crushed if it doesn't happen. But I don't really know how I'll mark it. I have no great expectations of change. At least not soon. But not having to listen to Boris, Braverman, Truss, JRM, Sunak, the Telegraph and the Mail, and take them seriously, because they have the power to affect my life will be a relief and a weight lifted. Maybe I'd sleep for a week if I didn't have to work to pay my outrageous rent? I think perhaps that's how the 40% of the country voting Labour are feeling. Just fucking exhausted by your constant Tory drama about all kinds of shit that simply doesn't matter to folk who work hard and just want to have a bit left over to spend.
Shame they're going to tax you even more and raise your bills still further then.
No they’re not. The Conservatives are the tax and spend party now. The problem is that no-one knows how they’re spending any of the money they appropriate. You need to cast your eye over your team with a critical eye, CR. They need the sort of scrutiny you refuse to give them. Even I’m going to lend Labour my vote this time.
No, Labour are the tax and spend party.
Always have been, always will be. And it's them you've failed to scrutinise in this election. Entirely.
A shock is coming for you.
I’ve been beaten and left in a ditch by the Tories. I don’t expect miracles from Labour but your party has left me and my family worse off and made the country a much nastier place. The shock will be good governance. Your blind loyalty to the Conservative Party leaves you…well…blind. Look at the record FFS! Read something other than what CCHQ pumps out. You have utterly failed to scrutinise or appreciate the harm you have done to aspirational earners. No party that has done this much damage can be rewarded with a vote. You gave us Truss. Who next will you foist on us?
Not all of us were born wealthy. Unlike you I had nothing and have made something with my life. I’m sick of having a government that rewards the hard work I’ve done with contempt. This isn’t football, it’s not about your team, scrutiny is everything. You just go “Tories, yah yah yah”. You have to examine the records of the parties concerned.
This lot should be going out in tumbrils but I do not see Labour as saviours , I expect they will just be shit if we are lucky. They have plenty of deadbeats already and more sure to come out of the woodwork. They were absolutely useless last time.
If Labour tax me more but the country’s finances and public services improve, then great.
Tax levels and public debt are already at a level where that outcome is incompatible with tax rises.
Is that true?
I'd rather live somewhere low tax, but Denmark (for example) has higher tax than us, with better public finances and better public services.
And, it's very boring.
Apart from the lego.
It was a place I was shouted at across the street in 3 different languages by an elderly gentleman, who then charged across the road to make sure I heard what he had to say....all because I was sitting on a seat in an empty bus shelter that was reserved for the elderly.
Rishi is fortunate to be in the right half of the draw against Reform in the inner cities, the Lib Dems in the red wall and Labour in the rural southwest.
Not a team player. I think we can expect her to defect in the hope others follow and a forced merger happens with Reform. I suspect that will fail. Either way she is finished in front line politics
If a few more people hadn't been 'team players' the Tories might have ditched Sunak and avoided electoral wipeout.
The seeds of this defeat though were sown before Sunak, and that’s something you on the Right really need to come to terms with.
Whether you go as far back as 2016 is up to you, but there’s little doubt that if Boris Johnson was unsuitable material to be PM, then Liz Truss was utterly disastrous.
The Conservative Party won't lose this election because of Rishi Sunak.
Sorry but that's exactly what is happening. People aren't voting for another 5 years of Truss, Boris and their respective Governments. Sunak has had ample time (and six months more if he wanted it) to show what he's about. People have decided they like it somewhat less than a dose of clap.
The Tory brand was damaged by Boris's shenanigans. If he had been replaced by a sane moderate - say, another Cameron-style leader - then he might have been able to reverse some of the rot. I doubt enough to win a GE, but not get a shellacking.
Instead, we got Truss, who was both blind and inept, and managed to upset enough people that she was soon gone. That further damaged the party. We got Truss because the Tories decided they were not extreme enough, and wanted to go more extreme. And damn the electorate.
We then got Sunak, who inherited an almighty mess. I have some sympathy for the situation he found himself in, but he played a bad hand badly.
So yeah, much of this Tory defeat is down to Johnson and Truss. Sunak didn't help, though.
The polling figures on both Johnson and Truss are very clear. Boris was about 4 points behind. Truss was polling at the (then) disastrous level of 19 at the nadir of her Government. Polling on an administration does not get worse in retrospect when that administration leaves office. These are simply risible excuses with zero basis in any sort of psephology to excuse the fact that the centrist, managerialist EU-friendly 'grown ups' that PB shrewdies had longed for came back into the room - even Cameron came back into the room ffs, and the outcome looks to be the worst Tory election result in our lifetimes.
The funniest graph in history is the one showing leaders poll ratings, with Truss being a near vertical line.
I saw a video of her a little while back, puffy face and a bit unkempt, like a female version of Johnson. Life is tough on political failures. Sunak next to join them, but not on the bottle probably.
Not a team player. I think we can expect her to defect in the hope others follow and a forced merger happens with Reform. I suspect that will fail. Either way she is finished in front line politics
If a few more people hadn't been 'team players' the Tories might have ditched Sunak and avoided electoral wipeout.
The seeds of this defeat though were sown before Sunak, and that’s something you on the Right really need to come to terms with.
Whether you go as far back as 2016 is up to you, but there’s little doubt that if Boris Johnson was unsuitable material to be PM, then Liz Truss was utterly disastrous.
The Conservative Party won't lose this election because of Rishi Sunak.
Sorry but that's exactly what is happening. People aren't voting for another 5 years of Truss, Boris and their respective Governments. Sunak has had ample time (and six months more if he wanted it) to show what he's about. People have decided they like it somewhat less than a dose of clap.
The Tory brand was damaged by Boris's shenanigans. If he had been replaced by a sane moderate - say, another Cameron-style leader - then he might have been able to reverse some of the rot. I doubt enough to win a GE, but not get a shellacking.
Instead, we got Truss, who was both blind and inept, and managed to upset enough people that she was soon gone. That further damaged the party. We got Truss because the Tories decided they were not extreme enough, and wanted to go more extreme. And damn the electorate.
We then got Sunak, who inherited an almighty mess. I have some sympathy for the situation he found himself in, but he played a bad hand badly.
So yeah, much of this Tory defeat is down to Johnson and Truss. Sunak didn't help, though.
The polling figures on both Johnson and Truss are very clear. Boris was about 4 points behind. Truss was polling at the (then) disastrous level of 19 at the nadir of her Government. Polling on an administration does not get worse in retrospect when that administration leaves office. These are simply risible excuses with zero basis in any sort of psephology to excuse the fact that the centrist, managerialist EU-friendly 'grown ups' that PB shrewdies had longed for came back into the room - even Cameron came back into the room ffs, and the outcome looks to be the worst Tory election result in our lifetimes.
The funniest graph in history is the one showing leaders poll ratings, with Truss being a near vertical line.
I saw a video of her a little while back, puffy face and a bit unkempt, like a female version of Johnson. Life is tough on political failures. Sunak next to join them, but not on the bottle probably.
Truss has gone (or was) proper mental. It was all the deep state and the bank of England doing secret things that brought her down. Everybody everywhere was against her, the whole swamp.
Whereas, I don't think Rishi will be ODing on too many Mexican Cokes in the California sun.
I expect a Labour government. I always want one. I've been hoping for and confidently counting down the hours for 2 and a bit years. And now? I don't know how to feel. A little nervous. I'll be crushed if it doesn't happen. But I don't really know how I'll mark it. I have no great expectations of change. At least not soon. But not having to listen to Boris, Braverman, Truss, JRM, Sunak, the Telegraph and the Mail, and take them seriously, because they have the power to affect my life will be a relief and a weight lifted. Maybe I'd sleep for a week if I didn't have to work to pay my outrageous rent? I think perhaps that's how the 40% of the country voting Labour are feeling. Just fucking exhausted by your constant Tory drama about all kinds of shit that simply doesn't matter to folk who work hard and just want to have a bit left over to spend.
Shame they're going to tax you even more and raise your bills still further then.
No they’re not. The Conservatives are the tax and spend party now. The problem is that no-one knows how they’re spending any of the money they appropriate. You need to cast your eye over your team with a critical eye, CR. They need the sort of scrutiny you refuse to give them. Even I’m going to lend Labour my vote this time.
No, Labour are the tax and spend party.
Always have been, always will be. And it's them you've failed to scrutinise in this election. Entirely.
A shock is coming for you.
I don’t really see how the Conservatives can have the gall to lecture others about tax and spend.
I have never in my entire life seen such high levels of taxation and unaccountable Government debt.
You really don’t have a leg to stand on.
Well, shortly, you will see levels of taxation and debt even higher still. Beyond your wildest dreams.
If you vote for the beast, expect the beasting.
Blair under the bed 👹
Lol
I can just remember his sort of panic before 1997.
And then things really did get better.
You halfwit it is nothing whatsoever like 1997. Stick to reading your comics.
I find it helps to have low-quality TV on for some kinds of work. If you're doing stuff where you have to wait for things, for example you have a long compilation step or you're waiting for chat responses, it's better to watch garbage TV for a minute until it's done than have your brain go searching for something more interesting on the internet, which is then harder to switch back from.
The County Championship streams on youtube are great for that.
The Scotsman pollsters providing some good collateral against the Survation results. Looks like the SNP are having a late rally, and the Tories weathering the storm a lot better than seems to be the case in other polls. Whether it's old data or errors in data processing, the MRP may not be giving a particularly accurate prediction after all.
Not a team player. I think we can expect her to defect in the hope others follow and a forced merger happens with Reform. I suspect that will fail. Either way she is finished in front line politics
If a few more people hadn't been 'team players' the Tories might have ditched Sunak and avoided electoral wipeout.
The seeds of this defeat though were sown before Sunak, and that’s something you on the Right really need to come to terms with.
Whether you go as far back as 2016 is up to you, but there’s little doubt that if Boris Johnson was unsuitable material to be PM, then Liz Truss was utterly disastrous.
The Conservative Party won't lose this election because of Rishi Sunak.
Sorry but that's exactly what is happening. People aren't voting for another 5 years of Truss, Boris and their respective Governments. Sunak has had ample time (and six months more if he wanted it) to show what he's about. People have decided they like it somewhat less than a dose of clap.
The Tory brand was damaged by Boris's shenanigans. If he had been replaced by a sane moderate - say, another Cameron-style leader - then he might have been able to reverse some of the rot. I doubt enough to win a GE, but not get a shellacking.
Instead, we got Truss, who was both blind and inept, and managed to upset enough people that she was soon gone. That further damaged the party. We got Truss because the Tories decided they were not extreme enough, and wanted to go more extreme. And damn the electorate.
We then got Sunak, who inherited an almighty mess. I have some sympathy for the situation he found himself in, but he played a bad hand badly.
So yeah, much of this Tory defeat is down to Johnson and Truss. Sunak didn't help, though.
The polling figures on both Johnson and Truss are very clear. Boris was about 4 points behind. Truss was polling at the (then) disastrous level of 19 at the nadir of her Government. Polling on an administration does not get worse in retrospect when that administration leaves office. These are simply risible excuses with zero basis in any sort of psephology to excuse the fact that the centrist, managerialist EU-friendly 'grown ups' that PB shrewdies had longed for came back into the room - even Cameron came back into the room ffs, and the outcome looks to be the worst Tory election result in our lifetimes.
The funniest graph in history is the one showing leaders poll ratings, with Truss being a near vertical line.
I saw a video of her a little while back, puffy face and a bit unkempt, like a female version of Johnson. Life is tough on political failures. Sunak next to join them, but not on the bottle probably.
Yes, I remember reading your rather ungentlemanlike comments about her appearance at the time. How kind of you to give us a repeat performance.
If Labour tax me more but the country’s finances and public services improve, then great.
That's generally my view, but there are limits. If taxes (as an extreme example) double, but public services improve by only 1% (*), then it's stoopid. Tax more, but spend wisely. Encourage growth.
(*) Impossible to measure, but you get what I mean.
You will not get that from Labour though, we know what they do. It is a choice of frying pan or fire here. A pure case of the lesser of two evils for sure.
If Labour tax me more but the country’s finances and public services improve, then great.
Tax levels and public debt are already at a level where that outcome is incompatible with tax rises.
Is that true?
I'd rather live somewhere low tax, but Denmark (for example) has higher tax than us, with better public finances and better public services.
And, it's very boring.
Apart from the lego.
It was a place I was shouted at across the street in 3 different languages by an elderly gentleman, who then charged across the road to make sure I heard what he had to say....all because I was sitting on a seat in an empty bus shelter that was reserved for the elderly.
Comments
I will be just glad if Steve Bray just f##ks off into obscurity.
'The stand-out fact at the heart of this campaign is that for all the noise and hullaballoo over the past month-and-a-half, the colossal gap in the opinion polls between Labour and the Conservatives has barely budged’
I have feeling we are nearly-all underestimating the visceral hatred of the Conservatives and therefore the extent of tactical voting. I’ve been lulled into this, betting on 100-200 Cons seats when the result could be worse for them.
It’s a sea-change election.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ckdgxj8v75no
Whether you go as far back as 2016 is up to you, but there’s little doubt that if Boris Johnson was unsuitable material to be PM, then Liz Truss was utterly disastrous.
The Conservative Party won't lose this election because of Rishi Sunak.
https://m.koreatimes.co.kr/pages/article.asp?newsIdx=377932
I reckon reasons for not waiting until the end of the year will come out in due course, possibly somewhere between the US and the King and the expected economic data.
The Tories went from being ahead to being significantly behind under Johnson, and dropped to very significantly behind after Truss. There was no coming back from those two, and since then, there hasn’t been.
Rishi has disappointed, but he inherited a hand that was almost impossible to play.
Until or unless you address the ontological and systemic failures of the Conservative Party going back several years you won’t come anywhere near returning to power.
Instead, we got Truss, who was both blind and inept, and managed to upset enough people that she was soon gone. That further damaged the party. We got Truss because the Tories decided they were not extreme enough, and wanted to go more extreme. And damn the electorate.
We then got Sunak, who inherited an almighty mess. I have some sympathy for the situation he found himself in, but he played a bad hand badly.
So yeah, much of this Tory defeat is down to Johnson and Truss. Sunak didn't help, though.
Essentially, unless the scare tactics being used against elderly Reform switchers work absolutely brilliantly and the Farageiste challenge implodes inside the polling booths, then the Tories are toast, and that's all there is to it.
But it’s more than that. Here’s a guy who had a successful book 20 years ago about male sexual predation. The world then decided to move on from that kind of thinking and he had to re-invent himself using multiple publishing pseudonyms. The raging and railing against ‘woke’ culture needs to be understood in the context of a person who is no longer wanted by the majority of British people. I have lost hope that he can find the humility and self-awareness to address these points.
For all his aggression and fringe fighting, Sean is no longer relevant.
You wouldn't know there was a big, possibly seismic erection tomorrow.
a) "If you want a refugee for a neigbbour, Vote Labour"
b) Run Harry Enfields "L is for Labour, L is for lice" as a genuine Tory video.
c) Chairman of the Royal Mail singing "Tomorrow belongs to me"*
* relative in the west countrys still not received postal ballot.
You might want to ponder why that was.
I find it bizarre that they continue to think he has some star power , and that some Tories think if only he was still there it would all have worked out well in this election .
He left office in disgrace , failed in his alleged leveling up agenda, oversaw a huge increase in migration , some are willing to overlook that he’s a pathological liar but the vast majority of the public aren’t fooled .
Sunak is simply the fall guy , I have no time for him but really come Friday it should be Truss and Johnson who should take the large share of blame .
Lol.
Always have been, always will be. And it's them you've failed to scrutinise in this election. Entirely.
A shock is coming for you.
He became PM, he is responsible. If he didn't want to take responsibility then he shouldn't have become PM.
The polls falling in midterm is normal. Instead of a recovery, as is normal towards the election, he has made things worse with national service and other rubbish.
We have two , both with about 10,000 members, one run by town independent councillors and the other set up in protest after one too many expulsions, where the Tory councillors and ex councillors hold fort.
Someone did a voodoo poll of who was most likely to beat the tories after the election was called but before Farage reappeared.
Several hundred voted. 2/3 said Labour 1/3 said reform.
Personally I think the purge of the centre right (Hammond, Gauke, Javid, Stewart etc) is coming home to roost. Centre right voters are looking at the options and choosing the one that matches their views.
Third point is that competence comes into it. Would you rather have a PM is very competent but a 90% to your politics; or a complete incompetent who is 100% aligned (agian think party nor PM)
This beating is on Johnson, for being a lying huckster, on Truss, for being a tone deaf ideologue, on May for making poor choices and on Cameron for his blind arrogance.
But more than any of those individuals it’s on the Tory party for failing to understand modern Britain and its needs. Cossetting the aged whilst fleecing the young, focusing on culture wars whilst the infrastructure degrades, failing to understand the needs of small businesses. They deserve everything they are going to get tomorrow.
I have never in my entire life seen such high levels of taxation and unaccountable Government debt.
You really don’t have a leg to stand on.
Not all of us were born wealthy. Unlike you I had nothing and have made something with my life. I’m sick of having a government that rewards the hard work I’ve done with contempt. This isn’t football, it’s not about your team, scrutiny is everything. You just go “Tories, yah yah yah”. You have to examine the records of the parties concerned.
I had nothing either. I start with zero in the bank.
Don't you ever get tired of being wrong?
(*) Impossible to measure, but you get what I mean.
If you vote for the beast, expect the beasting.
That was why Mike repeatedly reminded us that we are likely about to witness is near-impossible.
If people like Big John lay into Labour tomorrow (eg wrf Corbyn in 2017) please do bear this in mind. We’ve become used to the idea now, but the turnaround is truly epochal.
The cheering will not last long as the next set of wasters get at the trough, set all their pals up etc and will be 5 more years of crap and whining.
I can just remember his sort of panic before 1997.
And then things really did get better.
I'd rather live somewhere low tax, but Denmark (for example) has higher tax than us, with better public finances and better public services.
https://youtu.be/FVXMk3wHL_0?feature=shared
Expect aspects of socialism.
1. It can't get much worse
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/articles/cxx2n1y3xzro
Are they talking about the GE result?
Apart from the lego.
https://fullfact.typeform.com/election-quiz24
You'll get all the extra tax without the commensurate improvement on public services.
I saw a video of her a little while back, puffy face and a bit unkempt, like a female version of Johnson. Life is tough on political failures. Sunak next to join them, but not on the bottle probably.
Whereas, I don't think Rishi will be ODing on too many Mexican Cokes in the California sun.
Which is why Mogadon Man is about to become Prime Minister.
Whether it's old data or errors in data processing, the MRP may not be giving a particularly accurate prediction after all.
Personally, I would happily take the hit on my bank balance for good governance and less corruption.