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An outlier or harbingers? – politicalbetting.com

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  • LeonLeon Posts: 53,240

    Heathener said:

    Sandpit said:

    Christ Biden has had the Trump orange treatment.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c51yx1n15y4o

    You see, you watch that and he's perfectly lucid.

    Only 50 days till the convention.
    Its chalk and cheese compared to the debate. The first 30 minutes of the debate he had no clue where he was, could hardly speak, kept freezing in between answers. If that version of Biden was one of my parents I would be looking at getting them into a care home ASAP.

    He "woke up" a bit second half, then looked back to totally zombified at the end, frozen on the stage.

    I am struggling to buy the argument that it is because he is just old. He spent 7 days off away preparing for the debate so should have been fresh.
    He clearly has good days and bad days, perhaps even good hours and bad hours. It’s genuinely sad to watch, especially the video at the end of the debate, and the subsequent appearance with his wife talking to him like a child while he was just frozen in place.

    He’s clearly not well, and certainly isn’t going to get any better in the next four years. Any loving family should just tap him on the shoulder and say that enough is enough - but political families don’t think like that.
    Well the report came out the other day, 10-4 is really the only hours he normally functions. I mean Starmer taking Friday night off to be with his family is one thing, but leader of the free world who only does office hours of 10-4 on a very good day is something else and will only get worse.
    Good morning.

    One of the awful things about Sunak’s attack on Starmer is the apparent lack of awareness of what Friday night means. He really is hopeless as a politician.

    On which subject, if you’ve never seen Friday Night Dinner then it’s highly recommended. Great comedy.

    I love the fact that Keir is showing the way with something that matters. I’m sick and tired of Sunak’s nasty little attempt to normalise work-until-you-drop ethics in Britain. It may be de rigueur in Silicon Valley start-ups but it does not make for a happier world.
    Normalising work alone would be good.

    On the very rare occasion I take half-a-day off work during the working week and walk around my town, once or twice a year at best, I'm astonished at how many people simply don't work.
    You can't judge like that, many people work shifts/weekends.

    Every day you go out and get served by someone on the weekend who facilitates any entertainment on your day off . . . They need a day off too.
    Well over a million people in the UK (including myself) worked Christmas Day last year. The 'working week' is a myth for many.
    Same for me. I basically work every waking hour - 365 days a year. Some of us don’t get holidays

    My problem is people don’t see the work so they think I’ve got it easy. Eg when I’m sipping my Kir Breton in sunny Camaret sur Mer, courtesy of the French taxpayer, and staring vaguely and happily at the dolphins in the bay - I’m working. In my head. I’m thinking about that next flint - or the next Gazette piece, or where I can have oysters

    It never stops - it’s relentless. And it’s people like me that keep the world turning when everyone else has got their feet up, watching Season 3 of Traitors

    I like to call us “the silent heroes”
  • LeonLeon Posts: 53,240

    Heathener said:

    Sandpit said:

    Christ Biden has had the Trump orange treatment.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c51yx1n15y4o

    You see, you watch that and he's perfectly lucid.

    Only 50 days till the convention.
    Its chalk and cheese compared to the debate. The first 30 minutes of the debate he had no clue where he was, could hardly speak, kept freezing in between answers. If that version of Biden was one of my parents I would be looking at getting them into a care home ASAP.

    He "woke up" a bit second half, then looked back to totally zombified at the end, frozen on the stage.

    I am struggling to buy the argument that it is because he is just old. He spent 7 days off away preparing for the debate so should have been fresh.
    He clearly has good days and bad days, perhaps even good hours and bad hours. It’s genuinely sad to watch, especially the video at the end of the debate, and the subsequent appearance with his wife talking to him like a child while he was just frozen in place.

    He’s clearly not well, and certainly isn’t going to get any better in the next four years. Any loving family should just tap him on the shoulder and say that enough is enough - but political families don’t think like that.
    Well the report came out the other day, 10-4 is really the only hours he normally functions. I mean Starmer taking Friday night off to be with his family is one thing, but leader of the free world who only does office hours of 10-4 on a very good day is something else and will only get worse.
    Good morning.

    One of the awful things about Sunak’s attack on Starmer is the apparent lack of awareness of what Friday night means. He really is hopeless as a politician.

    On which subject, if you’ve never seen Friday Night Dinner then it’s highly recommended. Great comedy.

    I love the fact that Keir is showing the way with something that matters. I’m sick and tired of Sunak’s nasty little attempt to normalise work-until-you-drop ethics in Britain. It may be de rigueur in Silicon Valley start-ups but it does not make for a happier world.
    Normalising work alone would be good.

    On the very rare occasion I take half-a-day off work during the working week and walk around my town, once or twice a year at best, I'm astonished at how many people simply don't work.
    Hear Hear
  • LeonLeon Posts: 53,240
    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Sandpit said:

    Christ Biden has had the Trump orange treatment.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c51yx1n15y4o

    You see, you watch that and he's perfectly lucid.

    Only 50 days till the convention.
    Its chalk and cheese compared to the debate. The first 30 minutes of the debate he had no clue where he was, could hardly speak, kept freezing in between answers. If that version of Biden was one of my parents I would be looking at getting them into a care home ASAP.

    He "woke up" a bit second half, then looked back to totally zombified at the end, frozen on the stage.

    I am struggling to buy the argument that it is because he is just old. He spent 7 days off away preparing for the debate so should have been fresh.
    He clearly has good days and bad days, perhaps even good hours and bad hours. It’s genuinely sad to watch, especially the video at the end of the debate, and the subsequent appearance with his wife talking to him like a child while he was just frozen in place.

    He’s clearly not well, and certainly isn’t going to get any better in the next four years. Any loving family should just tap him on the shoulder and say that enough is enough - but political families don’t think like that.
    Well the report came out the other day, 10-4 is really the only hours he normally functions. I mean Starmer taking Friday night off to be with his family is one thing, but leader of the free world who only does office hours of 10-4 on a very good day is something else and will only get worse.
    Good morning.

    One of the awful things about Sunak’s attack on Starmer is the apparent lack of awareness of what Friday night means. He really is hopeless as a politician.

    On which subject, if you’ve never seen Friday Night Dinner then it’s highly recommended. Great comedy.

    I love the fact that Keir is showing the way with something that matters. I’m sick and tired of Sunak’s nasty little attempt to normalise work-until-you-drop ethics in Britain. It may be de rigueur in Silicon Valley start-ups but it does not make for a happier world.
    Normalising work alone would be good.

    On the very rare occasion I take half-a-day off work during the working week and walk around my town, once or twice a year at best, I'm astonished at how many people simply don't work.
    You can't judge like that, many people work shifts/weekends.

    Every day you go out and get served by someone on the weekend who facilitates any entertainment on your day off . . . They need a day off too.
    I don't believe it for a second but I understand some people suspect there is also a big group of people who claim to work but actually spend their days on an obscure political betting blog. How can we make them more productive?
    Haha!

    It does bemuse me that people who say they work so hard, and our alleged full-time journalist, spend sooooooooo much of the daylight hours on this website ;)

    I get multi-tasking but even so.
    Have you ever considered the possibility that I’m just really fucking smart?
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,516
    Leon said:

    Heathener said:

    Jonathan said:

    Never underestimate the conservatives. Their voters turn out on election day. It’s going to be a hell of a lot closer than hyped polls suggest.

    I think Labour getting 5% below the polls is more likely than the Tories getting 5% above the polls.
    You’re talking what you want to see, you’re hot for Reform taking Labour’s vote.
    I think most on PB are doing that to an extent. I think Leon isn't, because he doesn't want to predict a right wing revolution and then be endlessly mocked if it doesn't happen. If I made a prediction, it would be based largely on a triangulation of what I want to happen and what everyone else says is likely to happen.
    He did predict a right wing revolution endlessly and then backtracked when the polls didn’t match his hyping up of Reform.

    In fact, it took a lot of people on here to persuade him that Farage had blundered over his Ukraine comments.
    I’M RIGHT ABOUT EVERYTHING

    In other news I’m on the ferry to Portsmouth. Quite jolly. I could get into ferries
    In a car I use the tunnel, but on a bike I use ferries. Cyclists get treated like Gods by the ferries. Front of the queue (and don't have to queue), car escort out.

    Are you on foot? Would be good to know how that works?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,358
    @nickeardleybbc

    Morning from campaign trail. 2 days left…

    Rishi Sunak out trying to shore up support in traditionally safe seats again this morning - starting with Witney, where none other than David Cameron used to be MP

    Lib Dems think they have a decent chance here
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 53,314
    edited July 2

    Heathener said:

    Sandpit said:

    Christ Biden has had the Trump orange treatment.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c51yx1n15y4o

    You see, you watch that and he's perfectly lucid.

    Only 50 days till the convention.
    Its chalk and cheese compared to the debate. The first 30 minutes of the debate he had no clue where he was, could hardly speak, kept freezing in between answers. If that version of Biden was one of my parents I would be looking at getting them into a care home ASAP.

    He "woke up" a bit second half, then looked back to totally zombified at the end, frozen on the stage.

    I am struggling to buy the argument that it is because he is just old. He spent 7 days off away preparing for the debate so should have been fresh.
    He clearly has good days and bad days, perhaps even good hours and bad hours. It’s genuinely sad to watch, especially the video at the end of the debate, and the subsequent appearance with his wife talking to him like a child while he was just frozen in place.

    He’s clearly not well, and certainly isn’t going to get any better in the next four years. Any loving family should just tap him on the shoulder and say that enough is enough - but political families don’t think like that.
    Well the report came out the other day, 10-4 is really the only hours he normally functions. I mean Starmer taking Friday night off to be with his family is one thing, but leader of the free world who only does office hours of 10-4 on a very good day is something else and will only get worse.
    Good morning.

    One of the awful things about Sunak’s attack on Starmer is the apparent lack of awareness of what Friday night means. He really is hopeless as a politician.

    On which subject, if you’ve never seen Friday Night Dinner then it’s highly recommended. Great comedy.

    I love the fact that Keir is showing the way with something that matters. I’m sick and tired of Sunak’s nasty little attempt to normalise work-until-you-drop ethics in Britain. It may be de rigueur in Silicon Valley start-ups but it does not make for a happier world.
    Normalising work alone would be good.

    On the very rare occasion I take half-a-day off work during the working week and walk around my town, once or twice a year at best, I'm astonished at how many people simply don't work.
    You can't judge like that, many people work shifts/weekends.

    Every day you go out and get served by someone on the weekend who facilitates any entertainment on your day off . . . They need a day off too.
    Well over a million people in the UK (including myself) worked Christmas Day last year. The 'working week' is a myth for many.
    Yes, there’s lots of industries (including yours) that can’t simply shut down, the shift pattern continues as usual whether it’s a public holiday or not. Add to utility workers, emergency service workers, transport workers, taxi & delivery drivers, hospitality & a few retail workers etc and it all adds up.

    There will be people such as railway maintenance workers who work every Christmas Day, precisely because it’s the quietest day of the year.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,358
    ...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 70,627
    Scott_xP said:

    ...

    Are they suggesting his campaign is a load of balls, or that he's running a failed racket?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 41,462
    Sandpit said:

    Heathener said:

    Sandpit said:

    Christ Biden has had the Trump orange treatment.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c51yx1n15y4o

    You see, you watch that and he's perfectly lucid.

    Only 50 days till the convention.
    Its chalk and cheese compared to the debate. The first 30 minutes of the debate he had no clue where he was, could hardly speak, kept freezing in between answers. If that version of Biden was one of my parents I would be looking at getting them into a care home ASAP.

    He "woke up" a bit second half, then looked back to totally zombified at the end, frozen on the stage.

    I am struggling to buy the argument that it is because he is just old. He spent 7 days off away preparing for the debate so should have been fresh.
    He clearly has good days and bad days, perhaps even good hours and bad hours. It’s genuinely sad to watch, especially the video at the end of the debate, and the subsequent appearance with his wife talking to him like a child while he was just frozen in place.

    He’s clearly not well, and certainly isn’t going to get any better in the next four years. Any loving family should just tap him on the shoulder and say that enough is enough - but political families don’t think like that.
    Well the report came out the other day, 10-4 is really the only hours he normally functions. I mean Starmer taking Friday night off to be with his family is one thing, but leader of the free world who only does office hours of 10-4 on a very good day is something else and will only get worse.
    Good morning.

    One of the awful things about Sunak’s attack on Starmer is the apparent lack of awareness of what Friday night means. He really is hopeless as a politician.

    On which subject, if you’ve never seen Friday Night Dinner then it’s highly recommended. Great comedy.

    I love the fact that Keir is showing the way with something that matters. I’m sick and tired of Sunak’s nasty little attempt to normalise work-until-you-drop ethics in Britain. It may be de rigueur in Silicon Valley start-ups but it does not make for a happier world.
    Normalising work alone would be good.

    On the very rare occasion I take half-a-day off work during the working week and walk around my town, once or twice a year at best, I'm astonished at how many people simply don't work.
    You can't judge like that, many people work shifts/weekends.

    Every day you go out and get served by someone on the weekend who facilitates any entertainment on your day off . . . They need a day off too.
    Well over a million people in the UK (including myself) worked Christmas Day last year. The 'working week' is a myth for many.
    Yes, there’s lots of industries (including yours) that can’t simply shut down, the shift pattern continues as usual whether it’s a public holiday or not. Add to utility workers, emergency service workers, transport workers, taxi & delivery drivers, hospitality & a few retail workers etc and it all adds up.

    There will be people such as railway maintenance workers who work every Christmas Day, precisely because it’s the quietest day of the year.
    My brother's a power engineer, and he used to often work Christmas Day. It'd be a miserable Christmas without electricity...
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,759
    Sandpit said:

    Heathener said:

    Sandpit said:

    Christ Biden has had the Trump orange treatment.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c51yx1n15y4o

    You see, you watch that and he's perfectly lucid.

    Only 50 days till the convention.
    Its chalk and cheese compared to the debate. The first 30 minutes of the debate he had no clue where he was, could hardly speak, kept freezing in between answers. If that version of Biden was one of my parents I would be looking at getting them into a care home ASAP.

    He "woke up" a bit second half, then looked back to totally zombified at the end, frozen on the stage.

    I am struggling to buy the argument that it is because he is just old. He spent 7 days off away preparing for the debate so should have been fresh.
    He clearly has good days and bad days, perhaps even good hours and bad hours. It’s genuinely sad to watch, especially the video at the end of the debate, and the subsequent appearance with his wife talking to him like a child while he was just frozen in place.

    He’s clearly not well, and certainly isn’t going to get any better in the next four years. Any loving family should just tap him on the shoulder and say that enough is enough - but political families don’t think like that.
    Well the report came out the other day, 10-4 is really the only hours he normally functions. I mean Starmer taking Friday night off to be with his family is one thing, but leader of the free world who only does office hours of 10-4 on a very good day is something else and will only get worse.
    Good morning.

    One of the awful things about Sunak’s attack on Starmer is the apparent lack of awareness of what Friday night means. He really is hopeless as a politician.

    On which subject, if you’ve never seen Friday Night Dinner then it’s highly recommended. Great comedy.

    I love the fact that Keir is showing the way with something that matters. I’m sick and tired of Sunak’s nasty little attempt to normalise work-until-you-drop ethics in Britain. It may be de rigueur in Silicon Valley start-ups but it does not make for a happier world.
    Normalising work alone would be good.

    On the very rare occasion I take half-a-day off work during the working week and walk around my town, once or twice a year at best, I'm astonished at how many people simply don't work.
    You can't judge like that, many people work shifts/weekends.

    Every day you go out and get served by someone on the weekend who facilitates any entertainment on your day off . . . They need a day off too.
    Well over a million people in the UK (including myself) worked Christmas Day last year. The 'working week' is a myth for many.
    Yes, there’s lots of industries (including yours) that can’t simply shut down, the shift pattern continues as usual whether it’s a public holiday or not. Add to utility workers, emergency service workers, transport workers, taxi & delivery drivers, hospitality & a few retail workers etc and it all adds up.

    There will be people such as railway maintenance workers who work every Christmas Day, precisely because it’s the quietest day of the year.
    And they get multiple time. It’s a popular choice for anyone without a young family.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 94,977
    Pulpstar said:

    *******************************************************************************************************************

    General Election Spreadsheet for the start of the evening (Expected results to 02:15

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1TskjcRFG9P0FLFeLzU6m3hefToD1aSC8rw8tj6_H7Rg/edit?usp=sharing

    It should auto-update results

    "Winner by Expected declaration time by model" is the tab to look at,

    "Democracy club 3" is the one that does the work - with some intermediate spreadsheets to process the data that should feed from democracy club

    ATOM Feed should give a live update of results from Democracy club

    ***********************************************************************************************************************

    You do the Lord's work.
  • FlannerFlanner Posts: 437
    Scott_xP said:

    @nickeardleybbc

    Morning from campaign trail. 2 days left…

    Rishi Sunak out trying to shore up support in traditionally safe seats again this morning - starting with Witney, where none other than David Cameron used to be MP

    Lib Dems think they have a decent chance here

    Not just Lib Dems Ysterday's Mirror recommended that Labour voters in Witney should vote LD if they want to kick the Tories out. https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/general-election-tactical-voting-guide-33138974
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,867
    Leon said:

    Heathener said:

    Jonathan said:

    Never underestimate the conservatives. Their voters turn out on election day. It’s going to be a hell of a lot closer than hyped polls suggest.

    I think Labour getting 5% below the polls is more likely than the Tories getting 5% above the polls.
    You’re talking what you want to see, you’re hot for Reform taking Labour’s vote.
    I think most on PB are doing that to an extent. I think Leon isn't, because he doesn't want to predict a right wing revolution and then be endlessly mocked if it doesn't happen. If I made a prediction, it would be based largely on a triangulation of what I want to happen and what everyone else says is likely to happen.
    He did predict a right wing revolution endlessly and then backtracked when the polls didn’t match his hyping up of Reform.

    In fact, it took a lot of people on here to persuade him that Farage had blundered over his Ukraine comments.
    I’M RIGHT ABOUT EVERYTHING

    In other news I’m on the ferry to Portsmouth. Quite jolly. I could get into ferries
    From the IoW?
  • theakestheakes Posts: 915
    Telegraph headline "higher Con figure for a month" is very misleading.
    Savanta who poll for the Telegraph reported 7th - 9th June Conservative on 25%!!!
    So they have fallen from that figure.

    I accept after the 9th June they fell 23, 19, 21, 21, but they were said to be 25% 3 weeks ago, higher than at present, but overall are still down.
This discussion has been closed.