I really dislike Theresa May's politics in many respects, but as a person she seems alright. I like to see former PMs who don't think that the daily grind of politics is beneath them.
One of the reasons I ended up voting for Labour in this election, was for Ed Miliband to be in charge of energy and climate in the next Cabinet. I didn't vote for his local candidate at GE 2015, but I think he has a real interest in this area of policy, and I hope good will come of his time as a Cabinet Minister.
I agree. Whilst her politics are not mine, she comes across as a decent public servant.
A mixed bag. She campaigned against institutionalised racism, and for GRC Reform, but was also behind the "Hostile Environment" and Windrush scandal.
Better than most recent Tory Prime Ministers isn't a very high bar.
She was the worst. Her “red line” speech - entirely unwanted - made sure Brexit would be hideously painful and costly
Nah, your hero Farage did that - along with the other Europhobes - when they did not set what Brexit meant for the referendum. A central lie that led to this mess.
As ever with you, it's someone else's fault.
Believe it or not I partly agree with you here
A failure to define Brexit before the referendum WAS a fundamental error, but the responsibility lies not with Farage - he’s a blustering populist who was never in charge and therefore decided nothing. PM Cameron should have imposed this stipulation
The whole vote was a shambolic disgrace. We should have had a formal national discussion about what Brexit might mean on both sides. We should have had a two stage vote. Remain or Leave, then, if Leave - what kind
Cameron fucked the whole thing, just as he fucked the “renegotiations” and then lost the vote with his ineptitude. Quite why @TSE worships him escapes me. A mediocrity
There's zero way Cameron could have defined what Brexit meant. And if he had, then Farage and the Europhobes within the party would have railed against it, whatever it was. He could only give his side of the argument.
I LOL at you calling Cameron inept. I mean, the Europhobes have hardly shone, have they? A bunch of nasty incompetent fuckwits.
You really have become a bitter and twisted sad old man these days JJ. It's a shame as you used to be reasonably sensible.
Yes, that’s really going to win people over, for the second round. Vote for the bloc that destroys things, after a vote, or vote for the party that promises to bring order?
I can see the appeal to you of a party with a leader called Jardin Bordello...
Are there any reliable news sources reporting on large riots across France? Visegrad24 is well dodgy.
"Protesters clashed with police in central Paris as demonstrations were held against Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally (RN), which jumped into an early lead in France’s snap election.
Thousands of people gathered in the Place de la Republique as first-round legislative elections on Sunday plunged the country into political uncertainty.
Video showed fireworks being set off in the direction of police who responded by firing tear gas.
Barricades designed to keep crowds under control were torched as protesters vented their anger."
Plus a short clip of 2 fireworks going nowhere near the police (I've had fireworks being fired much closer to me on NYE on the streets in Germany), and police firing a cannister of tear gas.
Not sure that counts as 'large riots across France', do you have anything else?
Tell you what, why don’t you do your own googling and Twixing, rather than relying on me to be some kind of personal news agency. No wonder the German economy is fucked you lazy dope
If Rishi Sunak hadn’t got into bed with Suella Braverman, which was her price for his leadership, and IF he had tacked central and attacked the Far Right instead from the outset I don’t think this would have been the catastrophic result it’s likely to be. I don’t think Sunak was a bad Chancellor. They should have laid into Reform long ago.
John Redwood in his inimitable fashion is claiming the truth is the opposite of this, but what else do you expect from him?
Reform seemed irrelevant until very recently. A year ago, they were polling 4-5%.
Part of the Reform vote is because Rishi Sunak is the wrong colour.
Look at the polling numbers. Under Truss, even after she blew up the economy and resigned and the Cons were polling in the low 20s, Reform were averaging under 4%. Then Sunak took over and the polling went to 6 by the end of 2022. It's quite a marked jump.
A third or more of Reform voters are just there for the racism.
I really dislike Theresa May's politics in many respects, but as a person she seems alright. I like to see former PMs who don't think that the daily grind of politics is beneath them.
One of the reasons I ended up voting for Labour in this election, was for Ed Miliband to be in charge of energy and climate in the next Cabinet. I didn't vote for his local candidate at GE 2015, but I think he has a real interest in this area of policy, and I hope good will come of his time as a Cabinet Minister.
I agree. Whilst her politics are not mine, she comes across as a decent public servant.
A mixed bag. She campaigned against institutionalised racism, and for GRC Reform, but was also behind the "Hostile Environment" and Windrush scandal.
Better than most recent Tory Prime Ministers isn't a very high bar.
Surely the Windrush scandal was a long-standing situation that came prominently to light during May's PMship? And she did set up a scheme to try to address it?
No she was the HS who caused the situation in the first place. The much like Major with the ERM, she reaped the whirlwind she had sown. She then hung Amber Rudd out to dry over it. She was and is an awful woman.
Her principal gift to the world is the phrase "the nasty party" to describe the Conservatives.
I really dislike Theresa May's politics in many respects, but as a person she seems alright. I like to see former PMs who don't think that the daily grind of politics is beneath them.
One of the reasons I ended up voting for Labour in this election, was for Ed Miliband to be in charge of energy and climate in the next Cabinet. I didn't vote for his local candidate at GE 2015, but I think he has a real interest in this area of policy, and I hope good will come of his time as a Cabinet Minister.
I agree. Whilst her politics are not mine, she comes across as a decent public servant.
A mixed bag. She campaigned against institutionalised racism, and for GRC Reform, but was also behind the "Hostile Environment" and Windrush scandal.
Better than most recent Tory Prime Ministers isn't a very high bar.
She was the worst. Her “red line” speech - entirely unwanted - made sure Brexit would be hideously painful and costly
Nah, your hero Farage did that - along with the other Europhobes - when they did not set what Brexit meant for the referendum. A central lie that led to this mess.
As ever with you, it's someone else's fault.
Believe it or not I partly agree with you here
A failure to define Brexit before the referendum WAS a fundamental error, but the responsibility lies not with Farage - he’s a blustering populist who was never in charge and therefore decided nothing. PM Cameron should have imposed this stipulation
The whole vote was a shambolic disgrace. We should have had a formal national discussion about what Brexit might mean on both sides. We should have had a two stage vote. Remain or Leave, then, if Leave - what kind
Cameron fucked the whole thing, just as he fucked the “renegotiations” and then lost the vote with his ineptitude. Quite why @TSE worships him escapes me. A mediocrity
Very, very, rarely do I agree with you but you are spot on about this.
I voted Leave and I’m still glad we Left and I’d vote Leave again - but I deeply regret the division Brexit has wrought. And the amateurish way we handled everything has made a tough time much more painful than it needed to be
And I now have more respect for the people who say referendums are dangerous and often damaging. After indyref and Brexit who does not think that?
Sometimes they are unavoidable - and matters as big as Indy or Brexit do require a public vote. But if we are going to have them - rarely - we need to develop a more mature way of handling them. The Irish seem to do them quite well. They have a big national debate first. We could learn from that
...and then the Irish have a series of referenda until the right answer is arrived at. I was all for that!
I really dislike Theresa May's politics in many respects, but as a person she seems alright. I like to see former PMs who don't think that the daily grind of politics is beneath them.
One of the reasons I ended up voting for Labour in this election, was for Ed Miliband to be in charge of energy and climate in the next Cabinet. I didn't vote for his local candidate at GE 2015, but I think he has a real interest in this area of policy, and I hope good will come of his time as a Cabinet Minister.
I agree. Whilst her politics are not mine, she comes across as a decent public servant.
A mixed bag. She campaigned against institutionalised racism, and for GRC Reform, but was also behind the "Hostile Environment" and Windrush scandal.
Better than most recent Tory Prime Ministers isn't a very high bar.
She was the worst. Her “red line” speech - entirely unwanted - made sure Brexit would be hideously painful and costly
Nah, your hero Farage did that - along with the other Europhobes - when they did not set what Brexit meant for the referendum. A central lie that led to this mess.
As ever with you, it's someone else's fault.
The "Civilised" Liberal Leavers had a plan. On paper, it was quite a good one.
Use (and that's the only word for it) Farage followers to get the referendum over the line. Not actually endorsing their worldview, good heavens no, but let them vote Leave because their votes counted the same as anyone else's.
Then dump the ghastly oiks the nanosecond the referendum was done and ally with the former Remain voters to get a Nice Brexit. Or better still, get that nice Mr Cameron to do it, so that their hands were clean of the betrayal.
On paper, it's a good plan, but it fails the "you have to dance with the one that bring ya" test. Once Leave won on the basis of the official and unofficial campaigns that happened, we were always going to end up here.
In some ways, Brexit is very much like having a baby. You can't be a little bit pregnant.
Except the post referendum atmosphere and direction was largely dictated by a Remain supporting PM who had never understood Brexit to be about anything other than immigration and who, in her studied ignorance, disregarded anything other than a 'hard' Brexit. Obviously the ERG nutters didn't help but a more competent and intelligent PM would have isolated and nullified them instead of actually helping them to gain more influence and power.
Yes, Remainers like May should not have lead the country after the Brexit vote, and forced Leavers in the Conservative Party to take responsibility however reluctantly.
I really dislike Theresa May's politics in many respects, but as a person she seems alright. I like to see former PMs who don't think that the daily grind of politics is beneath them.
One of the reasons I ended up voting for Labour in this election, was for Ed Miliband to be in charge of energy and climate in the next Cabinet. I didn't vote for his local candidate at GE 2015, but I think he has a real interest in this area of policy, and I hope good will come of his time as a Cabinet Minister.
I agree. Whilst her politics are not mine, she comes across as a decent public servant.
A mixed bag. She campaigned against institutionalised racism, and for GRC Reform, but was also behind the "Hostile Environment" and Windrush scandal.
Better than most recent Tory Prime Ministers isn't a very high bar.
She was the worst. Her “red line” speech - entirely unwanted - made sure Brexit would be hideously painful and costly
Nah, your hero Farage did that - along with the other Europhobes - when they did not set what Brexit meant for the referendum. A central lie that led to this mess.
As ever with you, it's someone else's fault.
Believe it or not I partly agree with you here
A failure to define Brexit before the referendum WAS a fundamental error, but the responsibility lies not with Farage - he’s a blustering populist who was never in charge and therefore decided nothing. PM Cameron should have imposed this stipulation
The whole vote was a shambolic disgrace. We should have had a formal national discussion about what Brexit might mean on both sides. We should have had a two stage vote. Remain or Leave, then, if Leave - what kind
Cameron fucked the whole thing, just as he fucked the “renegotiations” and then lost the vote with his ineptitude. Quite why @TSE worships him escapes me. A mediocrity
Very, very, rarely do I agree with you but you are spot on about this.
I voted Leave and I’m still glad we Left and I’d vote Leave again - but I deeply regret the division Brexit has wrought. And the amateurish way we handled everything has made a tough time much more painful than it needed to be
And I now have more respect for the people who say referendums are dangerous and often damaging. After indyref and Brexit who does not think that?
Sometimes they are unavoidable - and matters as big as Indy or Brexit do require a public vote. But if we are going to have them - rarely - we need to develop a more mature way of handling them. The Irish seem to do them quite well. They have a big national debate first. We could learn from that
The way it should have been handled was like this:
1) vote yes/no to negotiate a specific leaving deal.
2) once the specific deal is secured, have a legally binding yes/no vote to implement that specific deal.
It was done back to front: we basically left the house with no keys, no wallet, no phone because we wanted to go find those things after we slammed the door shut. Total madness.
Just to highlight the lack of competence in british politics, nobody questioned the technicalities of the referendum. It was simply seen as a gimmick to shut up the alt right brexiteers, because it was assumed they would lose. Assumption is the basis of all fuck ups.
I really dislike Theresa May's politics in many respects, but as a person she seems alright. I like to see former PMs who don't think that the daily grind of politics is beneath them.
One of the reasons I ended up voting for Labour in this election, was for Ed Miliband to be in charge of energy and climate in the next Cabinet. I didn't vote for his local candidate at GE 2015, but I think he has a real interest in this area of policy, and I hope good will come of his time as a Cabinet Minister.
I agree. Whilst her politics are not mine, she comes across as a decent public servant.
A mixed bag. She campaigned against institutionalised racism, and for GRC Reform, but was also behind the "Hostile Environment" and Windrush scandal.
Better than most recent Tory Prime Ministers isn't a very high bar.
Surely the Windrush scandal was a long-standing situation that came prominently to light during May's PMship? And she did set up a scheme to try to address it?
No she was the HS who caused the situation in the first place. The much like Major with the ERM, she reaped the whirlwind she had sown. She then hung Amber Rudd out to dry over it. She was and is an awful woman.
Her principal gift to the world is the phrase "the nasty party" to describe the Conservatives.
But at the time no one realised she was talking about an aspiration.
I really dislike Theresa May's politics in many respects, but as a person she seems alright. I like to see former PMs who don't think that the daily grind of politics is beneath them.
One of the reasons I ended up voting for Labour in this election, was for Ed Miliband to be in charge of energy and climate in the next Cabinet. I didn't vote for his local candidate at GE 2015, but I think he has a real interest in this area of policy, and I hope good will come of his time as a Cabinet Minister.
I agree. Whilst her politics are not mine, she comes across as a decent public servant.
A mixed bag. She campaigned against institutionalised racism, and for GRC Reform, but was also behind the "Hostile Environment" and Windrush scandal.
Better than most recent Tory Prime Ministers isn't a very high bar.
She was the worst. Her “red line” speech - entirely unwanted - made sure Brexit would be hideously painful and costly
Nah, your hero Farage did that - along with the other Europhobes - when they did not set what Brexit meant for the referendum. A central lie that led to this mess.
As ever with you, it's someone else's fault.
Believe it or not I partly agree with you here
A failure to define Brexit before the referendum WAS a fundamental error, but the responsibility lies not with Farage - he’s a blustering populist who was never in charge and therefore decided nothing. PM Cameron should have imposed this stipulation
The whole vote was a shambolic disgrace. We should have had a formal national discussion about what Brexit might mean on both sides. We should have had a two stage vote. Remain or Leave, then, if Leave - what kind
Cameron fucked the whole thing, just as he fucked the “renegotiations” and then lost the vote with his ineptitude. Quite why @TSE worships him escapes me. A mediocrity
There's zero way Cameron could have defined what Brexit meant. And if he had, then Farage and the Europhobes within the party would have railed against it, whatever it was. He could only give his side of the argument.
I LOL at you calling Cameron inept. I mean, the Europhobes have hardly shone, have they? A bunch of nasty incompetent fuckwits.
And Cameron let them in by being a conceited second rater. So your point is a strong one but against rather than for him.
I really dislike Theresa May's politics in many respects, but as a person she seems alright. I like to see former PMs who don't think that the daily grind of politics is beneath them.
One of the reasons I ended up voting for Labour in this election, was for Ed Miliband to be in charge of energy and climate in the next Cabinet. I didn't vote for his local candidate at GE 2015, but I think he has a real interest in this area of policy, and I hope good will come of his time as a Cabinet Minister.
I agree. Whilst her politics are not mine, she comes across as a decent public servant.
A mixed bag. She campaigned against institutionalised racism, and for GRC Reform, but was also behind the "Hostile Environment" and Windrush scandal.
Better than most recent Tory Prime Ministers isn't a very high bar.
She was the worst. Her “red line” speech - entirely unwanted - made sure Brexit would be hideously painful and costly
Nah, your hero Farage did that - along with the other Europhobes - when they did not set what Brexit meant for the referendum. A central lie that led to this mess.
As ever with you, it's someone else's fault.
Believe it or not I partly agree with you here
A failure to define Brexit before the referendum WAS a fundamental error, but the responsibility lies not with Farage - he’s a blustering populist who was never in charge and therefore decided nothing. PM Cameron should have imposed this stipulation
The whole vote was a shambolic disgrace. We should have had a formal national discussion about what Brexit might mean on both sides. We should have had a two stage vote. Remain or Leave, then, if Leave - what kind
Cameron fucked the whole thing, just as he fucked the “renegotiations” and then lost the vote with his ineptitude. Quite why @TSE worships him escapes me. A mediocrity
Very, very, rarely do I agree with you but you are spot on about this.
I voted Leave and I’m still glad we Left and I’d vote Leave again - but I deeply regret the division Brexit has wrought. And the amateurish way we handled everything has made a tough time much more painful than it needed to be
And I now have more respect for the people who say referendums are dangerous and often damaging. After indyref and Brexit who does not think that?
Sometimes they are unavoidable - and matters as big as Indy or Brexit do require a public vote. But if we are going to have them - rarely - we need to develop a more mature way of handling them. The Irish seem to do them quite well. They have a big national debate first. We could learn from that
The Swiss are very good at referendums as well, because they do so many of them they stick strictly to the subject.
The problem is the major constitutional change, as much as it’s the methodology. By its very nature it’s always going to be rather divisive.
I really dislike Theresa May's politics in many respects, but as a person she seems alright. I like to see former PMs who don't think that the daily grind of politics is beneath them.
One of the reasons I ended up voting for Labour in this election, was for Ed Miliband to be in charge of energy and climate in the next Cabinet. I didn't vote for his local candidate at GE 2015, but I think he has a real interest in this area of policy, and I hope good will come of his time as a Cabinet Minister.
I agree. Whilst her politics are not mine, she comes across as a decent public servant.
A mixed bag. She campaigned against institutionalised racism, and for GRC Reform, but was also behind the "Hostile Environment" and Windrush scandal.
Better than most recent Tory Prime Ministers isn't a very high bar.
She was the worst. Her “red line” speech - entirely unwanted - made sure Brexit would be hideously painful and costly
Nah, your hero Farage did that - along with the other Europhobes - when they did not set what Brexit meant for the referendum. A central lie that led to this mess.
As ever with you, it's someone else's fault.
Believe it or not I partly agree with you here
A failure to define Brexit before the referendum WAS a fundamental error, but the responsibility lies not with Farage - he’s a blustering populist who was never in charge and therefore decided nothing. PM Cameron should have imposed this stipulation
The whole vote was a shambolic disgrace. We should have had a formal national discussion about what Brexit might mean on both sides. We should have had a two stage vote. Remain or Leave, then, if Leave - what kind
Cameron fucked the whole thing, just as he fucked the “renegotiations” and then lost the vote with his ineptitude. Quite why @TSE worships him escapes me. A mediocrity
I really dislike Theresa May's politics in many respects, but as a person she seems alright. I like to see former PMs who don't think that the daily grind of politics is beneath them.
One of the reasons I ended up voting for Labour in this election, was for Ed Miliband to be in charge of energy and climate in the next Cabinet. I didn't vote for his local candidate at GE 2015, but I think he has a real interest in this area of policy, and I hope good will come of his time as a Cabinet Minister.
I agree. Whilst her politics are not mine, she comes across as a decent public servant.
Agreed and genuinely pained to see the direction her Party has travelled
I also think this country would have been better off economically had they voted for her Brexit deal.
Whilst I agree about her Brexit version, she really was an awful PM and Home Secretary. She was a Twin set and Pearls version of Patel or Braverman, authoritarian in the extreme and responsible for a huge amount of misery for a lot of innocent people. I was delighted when she fell, even if far less delighted with the choice of successor.
In any traditional Conservative government, May occupies a position similar to Sunak. On the bus, but to the right of that bus.
At the moment, both of them are somewhere on the left, probably hanging on to the outside for grim life. I'm sure some people see that change as a good thing, but I struggle to ee it myself.
No one forced May to send out vans telling immigrants to go home. No one forced her to develop a culture at the Home Office that led to the Windrush scandal. This was all in the Cameron/Coalition years - held up by many to be a period of centralism at least as far as social issues are concerned - and was entirely self inflicted.
and deliberately done while her LibDem deputy was away on holiday, as Mrs M would have been very well aware.
I really dislike Theresa May's politics in many respects, but as a person she seems alright. I like to see former PMs who don't think that the daily grind of politics is beneath them.
One of the reasons I ended up voting for Labour in this election, was for Ed Miliband to be in charge of energy and climate in the next Cabinet. I didn't vote for his local candidate at GE 2015, but I think he has a real interest in this area of policy, and I hope good will come of his time as a Cabinet Minister.
I agree. Whilst her politics are not mine, she comes across as a decent public servant.
A mixed bag. She campaigned against institutionalised racism, and for GRC Reform, but was also behind the "Hostile Environment" and Windrush scandal.
Better than most recent Tory Prime Ministers isn't a very high bar.
Surely the Windrush scandal was a long-standing situation that came prominently to light during May's PMship? And she did set up a scheme to try to address it?
No she was the HS who caused the situation in the first place. The much like Major with the ERM, she reaped the whirlwind she had sown. She then hung Amber Rudd out to dry over it. She was and is an awful woman.
Her principal gift to the world is the phrase "the nasty party" to describe the Conservatives.
The irony is that her Nasty Party speech was making a sound point. There was a perception gap between the baby-eating image of the Conservative Party and the reality of (mostly) good people trying to help their communities.
That the perception and the reality have got worse in the last twenty years isn't entirely her fault.
Yes, that’s really going to win people over, for the second round. Vote for the bloc that destroys things, after a vote, or vote for the party that promises to bring order?
I can see the appeal to you of a party with a leader called Jardin Bordello...
Are there any reliable news sources reporting on large riots across France? Visegrad24 is well dodgy.
"Protesters clashed with police in central Paris as demonstrations were held against Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally (RN), which jumped into an early lead in France’s snap election.
Thousands of people gathered in the Place de la Republique as first-round legislative elections on Sunday plunged the country into political uncertainty.
Video showed fireworks being set off in the direction of police who responded by firing tear gas.
Barricades designed to keep crowds under control were torched as protesters vented their anger."
Plus a short clip of 2 fireworks going nowhere near the police (I've had fireworks being fired much closer to me on NYE on the streets in Germany), and police firing a cannister of tear gas.
Not sure that counts as 'large riots across France', do you have anything else?
Tell you what, why don’t you do your own googling and Twixing, rather than relying on me to be some kind of personal news agency. No wonder the German economy is fucked you lazy dope
Because you said 'large riots across France' so you have obviously already done the research because i know you would never make exaggerated claims with little evidence, and my quick Googling didn't find much to support it.
If Rishi Sunak hadn’t got into bed with Suella Braverman, which was her price for his leadership, and IF he had tacked central and attacked the Far Right instead from the outset I don’t think this would have been the catastrophic result it’s likely to be. I don’t think Sunak was a bad Chancellor. They should have laid into Reform long ago.
John Redwood in his inimitable fashion is claiming the truth is the opposite of this, but what else do you expect from him?
Reform seemed irrelevant until very recently. A year ago, they were polling 4-5%.
Reform is just a new name for what was already an electoral force within the conservative goverment and the key reason it couldn't govern or legislate. Reform didn't spring into existance out of nothing. In fact I see it as a retreat for the populist movement. It failed in its attemt to take over the conservative party from within after 2019. Now it is shuffling to another party, where it will slowly shrink into insignificance, due to the extreme high age of its supporters. Populism cannot govern... it can get elected on the back of high emotion and divisive politics, but it falters as soon as it is in office as the last many years have shown in the UK.
Reform's voters' age profile is in line with that of the voters generally, if the polls are to be believed. It's the Conservatives who skew towards the elderly.
I really dislike Theresa May's politics in many respects, but as a person she seems alright. I like to see former PMs who don't think that the daily grind of politics is beneath them.
One of the reasons I ended up voting for Labour in this election, was for Ed Miliband to be in charge of energy and climate in the next Cabinet. I didn't vote for his local candidate at GE 2015, but I think he has a real interest in this area of policy, and I hope good will come of his time as a Cabinet Minister.
I agree. Whilst her politics are not mine, she comes across as a decent public servant.
A mixed bag. She campaigned against institutionalised racism, and for GRC Reform, but was also behind the "Hostile Environment" and Windrush scandal.
Better than most recent Tory Prime Ministers isn't a very high bar.
She was the worst. Her “red line” speech - entirely unwanted - made sure Brexit would be hideously painful and costly
Nah, your hero Farage did that - along with the other Europhobes - when they did not set what Brexit meant for the referendum. A central lie that led to this mess.
As ever with you, it's someone else's fault.
Believe it or not I partly agree with you here
A failure to define Brexit before the referendum WAS a fundamental error, but the responsibility lies not with Farage - he’s a blustering populist who was never in charge and therefore decided nothing. PM Cameron should have imposed this stipulation
The whole vote was a shambolic disgrace. We should have had a formal national discussion about what Brexit might mean on both sides. We should have had a two stage vote. Remain or Leave, then, if Leave - what kind
Cameron fucked the whole thing, just as he fucked the “renegotiations” and then lost the vote with his ineptitude. Quite why @TSE worships him escapes me. A mediocrity
Very, very, rarely do I agree with you but you are spot on about this.
I voted Leave and I’m still glad we Left and I’d vote Leave again - but I deeply regret the division Brexit has wrought. And the amateurish way we handled everything has made a tough time much more painful than it needed to be
And I now have more respect for the people who say referendums are dangerous and often damaging. After indyref and Brexit who does not think that?
Sometimes they are unavoidable - and matters as big as Indy or Brexit do require a public vote. But if we are going to have them - rarely - we need to develop a more mature way of handling them. The Irish seem to do them quite well. They have a big national debate first. We could learn from that
The Swiss are very good at referendums as well, because they do so many of them they stick strictly to the subject.
The problem is the major constitutional change, as much as it’s the methodology. By its very nature it’s always going to be rather divisive.
And because they are a tiny little nation.... far more intimate national setting and hence much higher levels of trust. Also, the living and educational standards are much much higher. We have far too many desperate low income people for that system to work here.
I really dislike Theresa May's politics in many respects, but as a person she seems alright. I like to see former PMs who don't think that the daily grind of politics is beneath them.
One of the reasons I ended up voting for Labour in this election, was for Ed Miliband to be in charge of energy and climate in the next Cabinet. I didn't vote for his local candidate at GE 2015, but I think he has a real interest in this area of policy, and I hope good will come of his time as a Cabinet Minister.
I agree. Whilst her politics are not mine, she comes across as a decent public servant.
A mixed bag. She campaigned against institutionalised racism, and for GRC Reform, but was also behind the "Hostile Environment" and Windrush scandal.
Better than most recent Tory Prime Ministers isn't a very high bar.
She was the worst. Her “red line” speech - entirely unwanted - made sure Brexit would be hideously painful and costly
Nah, your hero Farage did that - along with the other Europhobes - when they did not set what Brexit meant for the referendum. A central lie that led to this mess.
As ever with you, it's someone else's fault.
Believe it or not I partly agree with you here
A failure to define Brexit before the referendum WAS a fundamental error, but the responsibility lies not with Farage - he’s a blustering populist who was never in charge and therefore decided nothing. PM Cameron should have imposed this stipulation
The whole vote was a shambolic disgrace. We should have had a formal national discussion about what Brexit might mean on both sides. We should have had a two stage vote. Remain or Leave, then, if Leave - what kind
Cameron fucked the whole thing, just as he fucked the “renegotiations” and then lost the vote with his ineptitude. Quite why @TSE worships him escapes me. A mediocrity
Very, very, rarely do I agree with you but you are spot on about this.
I voted Leave and I’m still glad we Left and I’d vote Leave again - but I deeply regret the division Brexit has wrought. And the amateurish way we handled everything has made a tough time much more painful than it needed to be
And I now have more respect for the people who say referendums are dangerous and often damaging. After indyref and Brexit who does not think that?
Sometimes they are unavoidable - and matters as big as Indy or Brexit do require a public vote. But if we are going to have them - rarely - we need to develop a more mature way of handling them. The Irish seem to do them quite well. They have a big national debate first. We could learn from that
The way it should have been handled was like this:
1) vote yes/no to negotiate a specific leaving deal.
2) once the specific deal is secured, have a legally binding yes/no vote to implement that specific deal.
It was done back to front: we basically left the house with no keys, no wallet, no phone because we wanted to go find those things after we slammed the door shut. Total madness.
Just to highlight the lack of competence in british politics, nobody questioned the technicalities of the referendum. It was simply seen as a gimmick to shut up the alt right brexiteers, because it was assumed they would lose. Assumption is the basis of all fuck ups.
That seems logical, but what incentive would there be for the rest of the EU to negotiate a deal?
If Rishi Sunak hadn’t got into bed with Suella Braverman, which was her price for his leadership, and IF he had tacked central and attacked the Far Right instead from the outset I don’t think this would have been the catastrophic result it’s likely to be. I don’t think Sunak was a bad Chancellor. They should have laid into Reform long ago.
John Redwood in his inimitable fashion is claiming the truth is the opposite of this, but what else do you expect from him?
Reform seemed irrelevant until very recently. A year ago, they were polling 4-5%.
Reform is just a new name for what was already an electoral force within the conservative goverment and the key reason it couldn't govern or legislate. Reform didn't spring into existance out of nothing. In fact I see it as a retreat for the populist movement. It failed in its attemt to take over the conservative party from within after 2019. Now it is shuffling to another party, where it will slowly shrink into insignificance, due to the extreme high age of its supporters. Populism cannot govern... it can get elected on the back of high emotion and divisive politics, but it falters as soon as it is in office as the last many years have shown in the UK.
Reform's age profile is in line with that of the voters generally, if the polls are to be believed. It's the Conservatives who skew towards the elderly.
Sorry, but Nope. Half of their voters are as old as they get..... the other half right behind them. Reform is looking to lose many many core voters by 2029 and 2034.
I really dislike Theresa May's politics in many respects, but as a person she seems alright. I like to see former PMs who don't think that the daily grind of politics is beneath them.
One of the reasons I ended up voting for Labour in this election, was for Ed Miliband to be in charge of energy and climate in the next Cabinet. I didn't vote for his local candidate at GE 2015, but I think he has a real interest in this area of policy, and I hope good will come of his time as a Cabinet Minister.
I agree. Whilst her politics are not mine, she comes across as a decent public servant.
A mixed bag. She campaigned against institutionalised racism, and for GRC Reform, but was also behind the "Hostile Environment" and Windrush scandal.
Better than most recent Tory Prime Ministers isn't a very high bar.
She was the worst. Her “red line” speech - entirely unwanted - made sure Brexit would be hideously painful and costly
Nah, your hero Farage did that - along with the other Europhobes - when they did not set what Brexit meant for the referendum. A central lie that led to this mess.
As ever with you, it's someone else's fault.
Believe it or not I partly agree with you here
A failure to define Brexit before the referendum WAS a fundamental error, but the responsibility lies not with Farage - he’s a blustering populist who was never in charge and therefore decided nothing. PM Cameron should have imposed this stipulation
The whole vote was a shambolic disgrace. We should have had a formal national discussion about what Brexit might mean on both sides. We should have had a two stage vote. Remain or Leave, then, if Leave - what kind
Cameron fucked the whole thing, just as he fucked the “renegotiations” and then lost the vote with his ineptitude. Quite why @TSE worships him escapes me. A mediocrity
Unfortunately, that would have been a non-starter. A debate before the Brexit vote would have descended into even more of
"If we want the freedom to do X, it will have bad consequence Y, because that's how the EU operates."
"No, that's just Project Fear. Once we have a proper negotiator in place, they will back down."
Narrator: The "proper negotiator" was David Frost.
His "tens of thousands" line (which one has to assume was pulled out of nowhere) has cast a horribly long shadow over the last couple of decades.
Even if you think it's the right thing to do, we've not prepared for the consequences of achieving it, let alone worked out what levers to pull to make it happen.
Applying the old LLG vs RefCon logic (which I know you all love) to the national results in France, they are:
LLG 52, RefCon 45
As they don’t have SNP or Plaid equivalents this is closer to 100% than the GB version.
The difference being that “RefCon” is dominated by the Reform equivalent, and the Liberal bit is a larger chunk of LLG.
Much of the French Left, however, would lump Macron in with the Right. And, the Republicans probably divide evenly between RN and Macron, if forced to choose, but probably 90/10 in favour of RN or Macron, against the Left.
I really dislike Theresa May's politics in many respects, but as a person she seems alright. I like to see former PMs who don't think that the daily grind of politics is beneath them.
One of the reasons I ended up voting for Labour in this election, was for Ed Miliband to be in charge of energy and climate in the next Cabinet. I didn't vote for his local candidate at GE 2015, but I think he has a real interest in this area of policy, and I hope good will come of his time as a Cabinet Minister.
I agree. Whilst her politics are not mine, she comes across as a decent public servant.
Agreed and genuinely pained to see the direction her Party has travelled
I also think this country would have been better off economically had they voted for her Brexit deal.
Whilst I agree about her Brexit version, she really was an awful PM and Home Secretary. She was a Twin set and Pearls version of Patel or Braverman, authoritarian in the extreme and responsible for a huge amount of misery for a lot of innocent people. I was delighted when she fell, even if far less delighted with the choice of successor.
In any traditional Conservative government, May occupies a position similar to Sunak. On the bus, but to the right of that bus.
At the moment, both of them are somewhere on the left, probably hanging on to the outside for grim life. I'm sure some people see that change as a good thing, but I struggle to ee it myself.
No one forced May to send out vans telling immigrants to go home. No one forced her to develop a culture at the Home Office that led to the Windrush scandal. This was all in the Cameron/Coalition years - held up by many to be a period of centralism at least as far as social issues are concerned - and was entirely self inflicted.
My prediction for Theresa May is that she'll spend a few years doing something like Churchwarden of her Church of England Parish (which is a surprisingly big job in a lot of cases), or other pivotal role in the local community.
I don't whether she is enough of a baker to take on the important role for elderly church ladies in England, which is judging a "which man can make the best scones, for a man" contest at the fate. Can also be applied to growing petunias.
I can also imagine her as a Ramblers' Association Footpath Inspection Team coordinator, for about half a county - which will involved scores or maybe hundreds of volunteers. Imagine the face of a Rights of Way Officer who gets 47 notices of blocked or unmaintained public footpaths from a former PM .
If Rishi Sunak hadn’t got into bed with Suella Braverman, which was her price for his leadership, and IF he had tacked central and attacked the Far Right instead from the outset I don’t think this would have been the catastrophic result it’s likely to be. I don’t think Sunak was a bad Chancellor. They should have laid into Reform long ago.
John Redwood in his inimitable fashion is claiming the truth is the opposite of this, but what else do you expect from him?
Reform seemed irrelevant until very recently. A year ago, they were polling 4-5%.
Reform is just a new name for what was already an electoral force within the conservative goverment and the key reason it couldn't govern or legislate. Reform didn't spring into existance out of nothing. In fact I see it as a retreat for the populist movement. It failed in its attemt to take over the conservative party from within after 2019. Now it is shuffling to another party, where it will slowly shrink into insignificance, due to the extreme high age of its supporters. Populism cannot govern... it can get elected on the back of high emotion and divisive politics, but it falters as soon as it is in office as the last many years have shown in the UK.
Reform's age profile is in line with that of the voters generally, if the polls are to be believed. It's the Conservatives who skew towards the elderly.
This is not good for Biden. This guy is influential - and relatively neutral
“I just spoke to one of the most respected doctors in the world. He says that it is eminently apparent that @POTUS Biden has lewy body dementia, Parkinson’s and/or Alzheimer’s and that his decline will not be linear. It will accelerate.”
I really dislike Theresa May's politics in many respects, but as a person she seems alright. I like to see former PMs who don't think that the daily grind of politics is beneath them.
One of the reasons I ended up voting for Labour in this election, was for Ed Miliband to be in charge of energy and climate in the next Cabinet. I didn't vote for his local candidate at GE 2015, but I think he has a real interest in this area of policy, and I hope good will come of his time as a Cabinet Minister.
I agree. Whilst her politics are not mine, she comes across as a decent public servant.
A mixed bag. She campaigned against institutionalised racism, and for GRC Reform, but was also behind the "Hostile Environment" and Windrush scandal.
Better than most recent Tory Prime Ministers isn't a very high bar.
She was the worst. Her “red line” speech - entirely unwanted - made sure Brexit would be hideously painful and costly
Nah, your hero Farage did that - along with the other Europhobes - when they did not set what Brexit meant for the referendum. A central lie that led to this mess.
As ever with you, it's someone else's fault.
Believe it or not I partly agree with you here
A failure to define Brexit before the referendum WAS a fundamental error, but the responsibility lies not with Farage - he’s a blustering populist who was never in charge and therefore decided nothing. PM Cameron should have imposed this stipulation
The whole vote was a shambolic disgrace. We should have had a formal national discussion about what Brexit might mean on both sides. We should have had a two stage vote. Remain or Leave, then, if Leave - what kind
Cameron fucked the whole thing, just as he fucked the “renegotiations” and then lost the vote with his ineptitude. Quite why @TSE worships him escapes me. A mediocrity
As we have seen, the UK was never in a position to unilaterally define what Brexit meant. A range of options could have been presented but they would all have been fought over and denied, just as they were before and after the referendum anyway. I think you are being far too kind to Cameron. He played fast and loose with the UK's future twice. That is not how a PM should ever behave.
I really dislike Theresa May's politics in many respects, but as a person she seems alright. I like to see former PMs who don't think that the daily grind of politics is beneath them.
One of the reasons I ended up voting for Labour in this election, was for Ed Miliband to be in charge of energy and climate in the next Cabinet. I didn't vote for his local candidate at GE 2015, but I think he has a real interest in this area of policy, and I hope good will come of his time as a Cabinet Minister.
I agree. Whilst her politics are not mine, she comes across as a decent public servant.
A mixed bag. She campaigned against institutionalised racism, and for GRC Reform, but was also behind the "Hostile Environment" and Windrush scandal.
Better than most recent Tory Prime Ministers isn't a very high bar.
She was the worst. Her “red line” speech - entirely unwanted - made sure Brexit would be hideously painful and costly
Nah, your hero Farage did that - along with the other Europhobes - when they did not set what Brexit meant for the referendum. A central lie that led to this mess.
As ever with you, it's someone else's fault.
Believe it or not I partly agree with you here
A failure to define Brexit before the referendum WAS a fundamental error, but the responsibility lies not with Farage - he’s a blustering populist who was never in charge and therefore decided nothing. PM Cameron should have imposed this stipulation
The whole vote was a shambolic disgrace. We should have had a formal national discussion about what Brexit might mean on both sides. We should have had a two stage vote. Remain or Leave, then, if Leave - what kind
Cameron fucked the whole thing, just as he fucked the “renegotiations” and then lost the vote with his ineptitude. Quite why @TSE worships him escapes me. A mediocrity
Unfortunately, that would have been a non-starter. A debate before the Brexit vote would have descended into even more of
"If we want the freedom to do X, it will have bad consequence Y, because that's how the EU operates."
"No, that's just Project Fear. Once we have a proper negotiator in place, they will back down."
Narrator: The "proper negotiator" was David Frost.
The one who went into the negotiating room with no papers?
I really dislike Theresa May's politics in many respects, but as a person she seems alright. I like to see former PMs who don't think that the daily grind of politics is beneath them.
One of the reasons I ended up voting for Labour in this election, was for Ed Miliband to be in charge of energy and climate in the next Cabinet. I didn't vote for his local candidate at GE 2015, but I think he has a real interest in this area of policy, and I hope good will come of his time as a Cabinet Minister.
I agree. Whilst her politics are not mine, she comes across as a decent public servant.
A mixed bag. She campaigned against institutionalised racism, and for GRC Reform, but was also behind the "Hostile Environment" and Windrush scandal.
Better than most recent Tory Prime Ministers isn't a very high bar.
She was the worst. Her “red line” speech - entirely unwanted - made sure Brexit would be hideously painful and costly
Nah, your hero Farage did that - along with the other Europhobes - when they did not set what Brexit meant for the referendum. A central lie that led to this mess.
As ever with you, it's someone else's fault.
Believe it or not I partly agree with you here
A failure to define Brexit before the referendum WAS a fundamental error, but the responsibility lies not with Farage - he’s a blustering populist who was never in charge and therefore decided nothing. PM Cameron should have imposed this stipulation
The whole vote was a shambolic disgrace. We should have had a formal national discussion about what Brexit might mean on both sides. We should have had a two stage vote. Remain or Leave, then, if Leave - what kind
Cameron fucked the whole thing, just as he fucked the “renegotiations” and then lost the vote with his ineptitude. Quite why @TSE worships him escapes me. A mediocrity
Very, very, rarely do I agree with you but you are spot on about this.
I voted Leave and I’m still glad we Left and I’d vote Leave again - but I deeply regret the division Brexit has wrought. And the amateurish way we handled everything has made a tough time much more painful than it needed to be
And I now have more respect for the people who say referendums are dangerous and often damaging. After indyref and Brexit who does not think that?
Sometimes they are unavoidable - and matters as big as Indy or Brexit do require a public vote. But if we are going to have them - rarely - we need to develop a more mature way of handling them. The Irish seem to do them quite well. They have a big national debate first. We could learn from that
The way it should have been handled was like this:
1) vote yes/no to negotiate a specific leaving deal.
2) once the specific deal is secured, have a legally binding yes/no vote to implement that specific deal.
It was done back to front: we basically left the house with no keys, no wallet, no phone because we wanted to go find those things after we slammed the door shut. Total madness.
Just to highlight the lack of competence in british politics, nobody questioned the technicalities of the referendum. It was simply seen as a gimmick to shut up the alt right brexiteers, because it was assumed they would lose. Assumption is the basis of all fuck ups.
That seems logical, but what incentive would there be for the rest of the EU to negotiate a deal?
If people had know we would have to leave without a deal, howmany would have voted for it?
His "tens of thousands" line (which one has to assume was pulled out of nowhere) has cast a horribly long shadow over the last couple of decades.
Even if you think it's the right thing to do, we've not prepared for the consequences of achieving it, let alone worked out what levers to pull to make it happen.
It was never achievable, practical nor desirable. It was just another dog-whistle and one he must have known he never had any intention (rightly) of really pursuing.
Applying the old LLG vs RefCon logic (which I know you all love) to the national results in France, they are:
LLG 52, RefCon 45
As they don’t have SNP or Plaid equivalents this is closer to 100% than the GB version.
The difference being that “RefCon” is dominated by the Reform equivalent, and the Liberal bit is a larger chunk of LLG.
Much of the French Left, however, would lump Macron in with the Right. And, the Republicans probably divide evenly between RN and Macron, if forced to choose, but probably 90/10 in favour of RN or Macron, against the Left.
Parts of the French left think Macron is a fascist. It’s like the worst of the Corbynistas at their peak when faced with Lib Dems on their patch.
If Rishi Sunak hadn’t got into bed with Suella Braverman, which was her price for his leadership, and IF he had tacked central and attacked the Far Right instead from the outset I don’t think this would have been the catastrophic result it’s likely to be. I don’t think Sunak was a bad Chancellor. They should have laid into Reform long ago.
John Redwood in his inimitable fashion is claiming the truth is the opposite of this, but what else do you expect from him?
Reform seemed irrelevant until very recently. A year ago, they were polling 4-5%.
Reform is just a new name for what was already an electoral force within the conservative goverment and the key reason it couldn't govern or legislate. Reform didn't spring into existance out of nothing. In fact I see it as a retreat for the populist movement. It failed in its attemt to take over the conservative party from within after 2019. Now it is shuffling to another party, where it will slowly shrink into insignificance, due to the extreme high age of its supporters. Populism cannot govern... it can get elected on the back of high emotion and divisive politics, but it falters as soon as it is in office as the last many years have shown in the UK.
Reform's age profile is in line with that of the voters generally, if the polls are to be believed. It's the Conservatives who skew towards the elderly.
Applying the old LLG vs RefCon logic (which I know you all love) to the national results in France, they are:
LLG 52, RefCon 45
As they don’t have SNP or Plaid equivalents this is closer to 100% than the GB version.
The difference being that “RefCon” is dominated by the Reform equivalent, and the Liberal bit is a larger chunk of LLG.
Much of the French Left, however, would lump Macron in with the Right. And, the Republicans probably divide evenly between RN and Macron, if forced to choose, but probably 90/10 in favour of RN or Macron, against the Left.
Parts of the French left think Macron is a fascist. It’s like the worst of the Corbynistas at their peak when faced with Lib Dems on their patch.
Yes. I don’t think left wing PB understands what the far left in France is like. They can make Corbyn appear reasonable
NY Times reporting that Biden's family have rallied around him at Camp David and persuaded him to stay in the race.
Ship of fools.
Magnificent news for my betting though.
I have been thinking about this a lot recently. I think it's probably now ~ 85% we have a Biden vs Trump contest, up from ~ 75% in the immediate aftermath of the debate. & Should Biden drop out, I can't see past Harris becoming the Dem candidate based on a good few things I am thinking of writing an article on. Then of course in November whoever is the nominee has to beat Trump.
The prices on exchanges and betting markets for Gavin Newsom and Michelle Obama are horrendously, unfathomably short. They ought to be around the Buttigieg mark (& possibly Whitmer) - who are good long odds buys in the hundreds to one.
I'm on a lot of these characters - Whitmar, Shapiro etc etc and quite red on Biden.
It seems very likely now though that the Dem fools will allow him to run and lose and plunge America into Trump 2.0 and massive constitutional crisis.
They will have only themselves to blame when night falls across the land.
Bus on time so got the Bristol train to avoid the unwashed smelly lefty hordes exiting Glastonbury at Castle Cary Station.
Hurrah for the bus company.
A couple of stragglers have appeared on the platform at Taunton though.
And the train is going to make extra stops at Worle and Yatton to pick up more stragglers.
I knew it was a good idea to keep the gas mask I bought when the government made face nappies compulsory for the sound scientific reason of not letting Nicola Sturgeon getting one over on them.
I really dislike Theresa May's politics in many respects, but as a person she seems alright. I like to see former PMs who don't think that the daily grind of politics is beneath them.
One of the reasons I ended up voting for Labour in this election, was for Ed Miliband to be in charge of energy and climate in the next Cabinet. I didn't vote for his local candidate at GE 2015, but I think he has a real interest in this area of policy, and I hope good will come of his time as a Cabinet Minister.
I agree. Whilst her politics are not mine, she comes across as a decent public servant.
Agreed and genuinely pained to see the direction her Party has travelled
I also think this country would have been better off economically had they voted for her Brexit deal.
Whilst I agree about her Brexit version, she really was an awful PM and Home Secretary. She was a Twin set and Pearls version of Patel or Braverman, authoritarian in the extreme and responsible for a huge amount of misery for a lot of innocent people. I was delighted when she fell, even if far less delighted with the choice of successor.
In any traditional Conservative government, May occupies a position similar to Sunak. On the bus, but to the right of that bus.
At the moment, both of them are somewhere on the left, probably hanging on to the outside for grim life. I'm sure some people see that change as a good thing, but I struggle to ee it myself.
No one forced May to send out vans telling immigrants to go home. No one forced her to develop a culture at the Home Office that led to the Windrush scandal. This was all in the Cameron/Coalition years - held up by many to be a period of centralism at least as far as social issues are concerned - and was entirely self inflicted.
My prediction for Theresa May is that she'll spend a few years doing something liek Churchwarden of her Church of England Parish (which is a surprisingly big job in a lot of cases), or other pivotal role in the local community.
I don't whether she is enough of a baker to take on the important role for elderly church ladies in England, which is judging a "which man can make the best scones, for a man" contest at the fate. Can also be applied to growing petunias.
It tickles me to think of former orld leaders doing such prosaic things. Tony Blair as the local dog warden. Boris Johnson as secretary of the local historical society, Liz Truss as the lollipop lady outside the village school.
Applying the old LLG vs RefCon logic (which I know you all love) to the national results in France, they are:
LLG 52, RefCon 45
As they don’t have SNP or Plaid equivalents this is closer to 100% than the GB version.
The difference being that “RefCon” is dominated by the Reform equivalent, and the Liberal bit is a larger chunk of LLG.
Much of the French Left, however, would lump Macron in with the Right. And, the Republicans probably divide evenly between RN and Macron, if forced to choose, but probably 90/10 in favour of RN or Macron, against the Left.
Parts of the French left think Macron is a fascist. It’s like the worst of the Corbynistas at their peak when faced with Lib Dems on their patch.
Yes. I don’t think left wing PB understands what the far left in France is like. They can make Corbyn appear reasonable
They still have actual communists out in the field don't they?
I really dislike Theresa May's politics in many respects, but as a person she seems alright. I like to see former PMs who don't think that the daily grind of politics is beneath them.
One of the reasons I ended up voting for Labour in this election, was for Ed Miliband to be in charge of energy and climate in the next Cabinet. I didn't vote for his local candidate at GE 2015, but I think he has a real interest in this area of policy, and I hope good will come of his time as a Cabinet Minister.
I agree. Whilst her politics are not mine, she comes across as a decent public servant.
A mixed bag. She campaigned against institutionalised racism, and for GRC Reform, but was also behind the "Hostile Environment" and Windrush scandal.
Better than most recent Tory Prime Ministers isn't a very high bar.
She was the worst. Her “red line” speech - entirely unwanted - made sure Brexit would be hideously painful and costly
Nah, your hero Farage did that - along with the other Europhobes - when they did not set what Brexit meant for the referendum. A central lie that led to this mess.
As ever with you, it's someone else's fault.
Believe it or not I partly agree with you here
A failure to define Brexit before the referendum WAS a fundamental error, but the responsibility lies not with Farage - he’s a blustering populist who was never in charge and therefore decided nothing. PM Cameron should have imposed this stipulation
The whole vote was a shambolic disgrace. We should have had a formal national discussion about what Brexit might mean on both sides. We should have had a two stage vote. Remain or Leave, then, if Leave - what kind
Cameron fucked the whole thing, just as he fucked the “renegotiations” and then lost the vote with his ineptitude. Quite why @TSE worships him escapes me. A mediocrity
Unfortunately, that would have been a non-starter. A debate before the Brexit vote would have descended into even more of
"If we want the freedom to do X, it will have bad consequence Y, because that's how the EU operates."
"No, that's just Project Fear. Once we have a proper negotiator in place, they will back down."
Narrator: The "proper negotiator" was David Frost.
The one who went into the negotiating room with no papers?
Wasn't that David Davis?
But long story short, the big picture wasn't up for negotiation. There was a set of options on the menu, and the UK could choose roughly which one it wanted, perhaps with a bit of garnish.
There was never a special deal hidden under the counter.
If Rishi Sunak hadn’t got into bed with Suella Braverman, which was her price for his leadership, and IF he had tacked central and attacked the Far Right instead from the outset I don’t think this would have been the catastrophic result it’s likely to be. I don’t think Sunak was a bad Chancellor. They should have laid into Reform long ago.
John Redwood in his inimitable fashion is claiming the truth is the opposite of this, but what else do you expect from him?
Reform seemed irrelevant until very recently. A year ago, they were polling 4-5%.
Reform is just a new name for what was already an electoral force within the conservative goverment and the key reason it couldn't govern or legislate. Reform didn't spring into existance out of nothing. In fact I see it as a retreat for the populist movement. It failed in its attemt to take over the conservative party from within after 2019. Now it is shuffling to another party, where it will slowly shrink into insignificance, due to the extreme high age of its supporters. Populism cannot govern... it can get elected on the back of high emotion and divisive politics, but it falters as soon as it is in office as the last many years have shown in the UK.
Reform's age profile is in line with that of the voters generally, if the polls are to be believed. It's the Conservatives who skew towards the elderly.
Applying the old LLG vs RefCon logic (which I know you all love) to the national results in France, they are:
LLG 52, RefCon 45
As they don’t have SNP or Plaid equivalents this is closer to 100% than the GB version.
The difference being that “RefCon” is dominated by the Reform equivalent, and the Liberal bit is a larger chunk of LLG.
Much of the French Left, however, would lump Macron in with the Right. And, the Republicans probably divide evenly between RN and Macron, if forced to choose, but probably 90/10 in favour of RN or Macron, against the Left.
Parts of the French left think Macron is a fascist. It’s like the worst of the Corbynistas at their peak when faced with Lib Dems on their patch.
Yes. I don’t think left wing PB understands what the far left in France is like. They can make Corbyn appear reasonable
They still have actual communists out in the field don't they?
The actual Communists are in fact on the relatively reasonable end of things compared to JLM.
If Rishi Sunak hadn’t got into bed with Suella Braverman, which was her price for his leadership, and IF he had tacked central and attacked the Far Right instead from the outset I don’t think this would have been the catastrophic result it’s likely to be. I don’t think Sunak was a bad Chancellor. They should have laid into Reform long ago.
John Redwood in his inimitable fashion is claiming the truth is the opposite of this, but what else do you expect from him?
Reform seemed irrelevant until very recently. A year ago, they were polling 4-5%.
Reform is just a new name for what was already an electoral force within the conservative goverment and the key reason it couldn't govern or legislate. Reform didn't spring into existance out of nothing. In fact I see it as a retreat for the populist movement. It failed in its attemt to take over the conservative party from within after 2019. Now it is shuffling to another party, where it will slowly shrink into insignificance, due to the extreme high age of its supporters. Populism cannot govern... it can get elected on the back of high emotion and divisive politics, but it falters as soon as it is in office as the last many years have shown in the UK.
Reform's age profile is in line with that of the voters generally, if the polls are to be believed. It's the Conservatives who skew towards the elderly.
Reform's support, across a range of polls, tends to peak among voters aged 40 - 60. Among voters aged under 65 as a whole, they generally poll better than the Conservatives.
NY Times reporting that Biden's family have rallied around him at Camp David and persuaded him to stay in the race.
Ship of fools.
Magnificent news for my betting though.
I have been thinking about this a lot recently. I think it's probably now ~ 85% we have a Biden vs Trump contest, up from ~ 75% in the immediate aftermath of the debate. & Should Biden drop out, I can't see past Harris becoming the Dem candidate based on a good few things I am thinking of writing an article on. Then of course in November whoever is the nominee has to beat Trump.
The prices on exchanges and betting markets for Gavin Newsom and Michelle Obama are horrendously, unfathomably short. They ought to be around the Buttigieg mark (& possibly Whitmer) - who are good long odds buys in the hundreds to one.
I'm on a lot of these characters - Whitmar, Shapiro etc etc and quite red on Biden.
It seems very likely now though that the Dem fools will allow him to run and lose and plunge America into Trump 2.0 and massive constitutional crisis.
They will have only themselves to blame when night falls across the land.
An unequivocal Trump win, as seems likely every time one gazes on the flaccid Parkinsonian mask of Biden's features, won't be a constitutional crisis unless the Dems turn it into one by not accepting the result.
I've no doubt he'd like to engineer a third term but I don't see a viable route to that for him.
This is not good for Biden. This guy is influential - and relatively neutral
“I just spoke to one of the most respected doctors in the world. He says that it is eminently apparent that @POTUS Biden has lewy body dementia, Parkinson’s and/or Alzheimer’s and that his decline will not be linear. It will accelerate.”
Applying the old LLG vs RefCon logic (which I know you all love) to the national results in France, they are:
LLG 52, RefCon 45
As they don’t have SNP or Plaid equivalents this is closer to 100% than the GB version.
The difference being that “RefCon” is dominated by the Reform equivalent, and the Liberal bit is a larger chunk of LLG.
Much of the French Left, however, would lump Macron in with the Right. And, the Republicans probably divide evenly between RN and Macron, if forced to choose, but probably 90/10 in favour of RN or Macron, against the Left.
Parts of the French left think Macron is a fascist. It’s like the worst of the Corbynistas at their peak when faced with Lib Dems on their patch.
Yes. I don’t think left wing PB understands what the far left in France is like. They can make Corbyn appear reasonable
They still have actual communists out in the field don't they?
The actual Communists are in fact on the relatively reasonable end of things compared to JLM.
In fact, the Communists have generally had a pretty good record running local councils. You're right that they are generally a lot more reasonable than Melenchon.
Applying the old LLG vs RefCon logic (which I know you all love) to the national results in France, they are:
LLG 52, RefCon 45
As they don’t have SNP or Plaid equivalents this is closer to 100% than the GB version.
The difference being that “RefCon” is dominated by the Reform equivalent, and the Liberal bit is a larger chunk of LLG.
Much of the French Left, however, would lump Macron in with the Right. And, the Republicans probably divide evenly between RN and Macron, if forced to choose, but probably 90/10 in favour of RN or Macron, against the Left.
Parts of the French left think Macron is a fascist. It’s like the worst of the Corbynistas at their peak when faced with Lib Dems on their patch.
Yes. I don’t think left wing PB understands what the far left in France is like. They can make Corbyn appear reasonable
They still have actual communists out in the field don't they?
I saw a brilliant line in either the guardian or the FT this morning - it said
“there may be an alliance between France Insoumise… and the more moderate parties, like the communists”
This is not good for Biden. This guy is influential - and relatively neutral
“I just spoke to one of the most respected doctors in the world. He says that it is eminently apparent that @POTUS Biden has lewy body dementia, Parkinson’s and/or Alzheimer’s and that his decline will not be linear. It will accelerate.”
I really dislike Theresa May's politics in many respects, but as a person she seems alright. I like to see former PMs who don't think that the daily grind of politics is beneath them.
One of the reasons I ended up voting for Labour in this election, was for Ed Miliband to be in charge of energy and climate in the next Cabinet. I didn't vote for his local candidate at GE 2015, but I think he has a real interest in this area of policy, and I hope good will come of his time as a Cabinet Minister.
I agree. Whilst her politics are not mine, she comes across as a decent public servant.
Well being magnanimous in (hoped for) victory, I profoundly disagree with Theresa May, and thought her "Citizen of Nowhere" speech deeply and profoundly wrong, however I have no doubt that her beliefs are sincerely held. I am also prepared to believe that Rishi Sunak is personally a decent man.
Whereas Boris Johnson and Liz Truss were not merely wrong but malign and their selfish political and, lets face it, their personal conduct leaves me pretty cold too.
Seeing Theresa May campaigning like that does not change my views of her policies, but does make me quite proud of our democracy.
Civility and decency are actually the norm in our politics, which is why those -like Johnson, Truss and Farage- who break the unwritten rules of common decency should be shunned.
A unfortunate coincidence I am sure, like all those racist candidates in Reform.
Farage says posting far-right song was ‘mistake’
The Reform UK leader has been accused of using a song banned across Europe for its far-right connotations
Nigel Farage has been accused of using a song hijacked by the far right on a video attacking the Tories’ record on immigration.
A video, which has now been removed, posted on Farage’s Twitter/X account on June 5 featured a slowed-down version of L’Amour Toujours, a 1999 Italian disco hit, as background to an interview with Richard Holden, the Conservative chairman, and then a speech by the Reform UK leader.
However, the song has been banned across Europe for its far-right connotations after multiple viral videos showed Germans signing “Germany for the Germans, foreigners out” over the song’s refrain.
Farage said yesterday he “didn’t know” the connotations of the song and “once we realised what we’d done, we took it down”. The Reform leader told The Times the person who had posted the video had admitted he had made a “mistake”. Farage said: “Occasionally — occasionally — we make mistakes. When we realised what it was, it was gone.”
I really dislike Theresa May's politics in many respects, but as a person she seems alright. I like to see former PMs who don't think that the daily grind of politics is beneath them.
One of the reasons I ended up voting for Labour in this election, was for Ed Miliband to be in charge of energy and climate in the next Cabinet. I didn't vote for his local candidate at GE 2015, but I think he has a real interest in this area of policy, and I hope good will come of his time as a Cabinet Minister.
I agree. Whilst her politics are not mine, she comes across as a decent public servant.
Agreed and genuinely pained to see the direction her Party has travelled
I also think this country would have been better off economically had they voted for her Brexit deal.
Whilst I agree about her Brexit version, she really was an awful PM and Home Secretary. She was a Twin set and Pearls version of Patel or Braverman, authoritarian in the extreme and responsible for a huge amount of misery for a lot of innocent people. I was delighted when she fell, even if far less delighted with the choice of successor.
In any traditional Conservative government, May occupies a position similar to Sunak. On the bus, but to the right of that bus.
At the moment, both of them are somewhere on the left, probably hanging on to the outside for grim life. I'm sure some people see that change as a good thing, but I struggle to ee it myself.
No one forced May to send out vans telling immigrants to go home. No one forced her to develop a culture at the Home Office that led to the Windrush scandal. This was all in the Cameron/Coalition years - held up by many to be a period of centralism at least as far as social issues are concerned - and was entirely self inflicted.
My prediction for Theresa May is that she'll spend a few years doing something like Churchwarden of her Church of England Parish (which is a surprisingly big job in a lot of cases), or other pivotal role in the local community.
I don't whether she is enough of a baker to take on the important role for elderly church ladies in England, which is judging a "which man can make the best scones, for a man" contest at the fate. Can also be applied to growing petunias.
I can also imagine her as a Ramblers' Association Footpath Inspection Team coordinator, for about half a county - which will involved scores or maybe hundreds of volunteers. Imagine the face of a Rights of Way Officer who gets 47 notices of blocked or unmaintained public footpaths from a former PM .
A female version of Mr Yeatman from Dads Army. About sums her up.
ydoethur said: » show previous quotes North Korea was supported by the Soviets, not China, at the time of the invasion. China joined later when MacArthur started threatening to invade them as well.
The South Korean Dictatorship at the time was far nastier and more bloodthirsty than the north and the North Korean invasion was in response to the Souths openly stated aim to invade and conquer it with US aid
Are you already on page two of Putinist talking points?
If Putin´s only friend is now North Korea, I think we can judge a man by that friendship.
Applying the old LLG vs RefCon logic (which I know you all love) to the national results in France, they are:
LLG 52, RefCon 45
As they don’t have SNP or Plaid equivalents this is closer to 100% than the GB version.
The difference being that “RefCon” is dominated by the Reform equivalent, and the Liberal bit is a larger chunk of LLG.
Much of the French Left, however, would lump Macron in with the Right. And, the Republicans probably divide evenly between RN and Macron, if forced to choose, but probably 90/10 in favour of RN or Macron, against the Left.
Parts of the French left think Macron is a fascist. It’s like the worst of the Corbynistas at their peak when faced with Lib Dems on their patch.
Yes. I don’t think left wing PB understands what the far left in France is like. They can make Corbyn appear reasonable
They still have actual communists out in the field don't they?
I saw a brilliant line in either the guardian or the FT this morning - it said
“there may be an alliance between France Insoumise… and the more moderate parties, like the communists”
It's why I'm gratified that a solid 45% of the good people of St Vincent des Pres continue to put their trust in the yellows of Ensemble. Even my eco-lefty neighbours grudgingly accept Macron's a reasonable politician. They are more Waveney Valley or North Herefordshire than Bristol Central or Rochdale in their attitudes.
It's one of the last liberal redoubts, perched atop its liberal cow-grazed ridge, the golden stone farmhouses and ruins reflecting back the gentle amber light of their Jupiterian president. The Kingston and Surbiton or Westmorland and Lonsdale of the French political scene.
Also from the FT this morning. Basically admitting he’s demented
“At a meeting between Joe Biden and an EU leader earlier this year, the Europeans were relieved to find the US president sharp and cogent — until the final moments.
“He ended the meeting with the same anecdote he started with… Everyone’s heart sank””
I really dislike Theresa May's politics in many respects, but as a person she seems alright. I like to see former PMs who don't think that the daily grind of politics is beneath them.
One of the reasons I ended up voting for Labour in this election, was for Ed Miliband to be in charge of energy and climate in the next Cabinet. I didn't vote for his local candidate at GE 2015, but I think he has a real interest in this area of policy, and I hope good will come of his time as a Cabinet Minister.
I agree. Whilst her politics are not mine, she comes across as a decent public servant.
Well being magnanimous in (hoped for) victory, I profoundly disagree with Theresa May, and thought her "Citizen of Nowhere" speech deeply and profoundly wrong, however I have no doubt that her beliefs are sincerely held. I am also prepared to believe that Rishi Sunak is personally a decent man.
Whereas Boris Johnson and Liz Truss were not merely wrong but malign and their selfish political and, lets face it, their personal conduct leaves me pretty cold too.
Seeing Theresa May campaigning like that does not change my views of her policies, but does make me quite proud of our democracy.
Civility and decency are actually the norm in our politics, which is why those -like Johnson, Truss and Farage- who break the unwritten rules of common decency should be shunned.
To be fair to Theresa May I think she realised her initial rejection of Brexit damage limitation was a mistake and spent the rest of her premiership trying in vain to step back from that.
A unfortunate coincidence I am sure, like all those racist candidates in Reform.
Farage says posting far-right song was ‘mistake’
The Reform UK leader has been accused of using a song banned across Europe for its far-right connotations
Nigel Farage has been accused of using a song hijacked by the far right on a video attacking the Tories’ record on immigration.
A video, which has now been removed, posted on Farage’s Twitter/X account on June 5 featured a slowed-down version of L’Amour Toujours, a 1999 Italian disco hit, as background to an interview with Richard Holden, the Conservative chairman, and then a speech by the Reform UK leader.
However, the song has been banned across Europe for its far-right connotations after multiple viral videos showed Germans signing “Germany for the Germans, foreigners out” over the song’s refrain.
Farage said yesterday he “didn’t know” the connotations of the song and “once we realised what we’d done, we took it down”. The Reform leader told The Times the person who had posted the video had admitted he had made a “mistake”. Farage said: “Occasionally — occasionally — we make mistakes. When we realised what it was, it was gone.”
Applying the old LLG vs RefCon logic (which I know you all love) to the national results in France, they are:
LLG 52, RefCon 45
As they don’t have SNP or Plaid equivalents this is closer to 100% than the GB version.
The difference being that “RefCon” is dominated by the Reform equivalent, and the Liberal bit is a larger chunk of LLG.
Much of the French Left, however, would lump Macron in with the Right. And, the Republicans probably divide evenly between RN and Macron, if forced to choose, but probably 90/10 in favour of RN or Macron, against the Left.
Parts of the French left think Macron is a fascist. It’s like the worst of the Corbynistas at their peak when faced with Lib Dems on their patch.
Yes. I don’t think left wing PB understands what the far left in France is like. They can make Corbyn appear reasonable
They still have actual communists out in the field don't they?
I saw a brilliant line in either the guardian or the FT this morning - it said
“there may be an alliance between France Insoumise… and the more moderate parties, like the communists”
It's why I'm gratified that a solid 45% of the good people of St Vincent des Pres continue to put their trust in the yellows of Ensemble. Even my eco-lefty neighbours grudgingly accept Macron's a reasonable politician. They are more Waveney Valley or North Herefordshire than Bristol Central or Rochdale in their attitudes.
It's one of the last liberal redoubts, perched atop its liberal cow-grazed ridge, the golden stone farmhouses and ruins reflecting back the gentle amber light of their Jupiterian president. The Kingston and Surbiton or Westmorland and Lonsdale of the French political scene.
This is the first trip to France where I’ve realised that many French people despise macron and he despises them right back
I had to go to left behind France to do it. So thanks to @another_richard for nagging me to make the effort
Tho even left behind France is rather lovely - at least in Brittany. Probably not in Picardy
Meanwhile the Led by Donkeys stunt on Nigel Farage is one of the funniest moments of the campaign. How the heck did they pull it off? Democracy is great.
Despite a slightly smaller gap, sub 20 makes defending seats tough for the Tories.
The very small Green number and lack of London Green surge implies their strength is elsewhere, which is very interesting. I am keeping a beady eye on the Greens in this election. They caused quite a few shocks in rural council seats at the locals. Watch out for the rural NIMBY Greens.
I really dislike Theresa May's politics in many respects, but as a person she seems alright. I like to see former PMs who don't think that the daily grind of politics is beneath them.
One of the reasons I ended up voting for Labour in this election, was for Ed Miliband to be in charge of energy and climate in the next Cabinet. I didn't vote for his local candidate at GE 2015, but I think he has a real interest in this area of policy, and I hope good will come of his time as a Cabinet Minister.
I agree. Whilst her politics are not mine, she comes across as a decent public servant.
A mixed bag. She campaigned against institutionalised racism, and for GRC Reform, but was also behind the "Hostile Environment" and Windrush scandal.
Better than most recent Tory Prime Ministers isn't a very high bar.
She was the worst. Her “red line” speech - entirely unwanted - made sure Brexit would be hideously painful and costly
Nah, your hero Farage did that - along with the other Europhobes - when they did not set what Brexit meant for the referendum. A central lie that led to this mess.
As ever with you, it's someone else's fault.
Believe it or not I partly agree with you here
A failure to define Brexit before the referendum WAS a fundamental error, but the responsibility lies not with Farage - he’s a blustering populist who was never in charge and therefore decided nothing. PM Cameron should have imposed this stipulation
The whole vote was a shambolic disgrace. We should have had a formal national discussion about what Brexit might mean on both sides. We should have had a two stage vote. Remain or Leave, then, if Leave - what kind
Cameron fucked the whole thing, just as he fucked the “renegotiations” and then lost the vote with his ineptitude. Quite why @TSE worships him escapes me. A mediocrity
There's zero way Cameron could have defined what Brexit meant. And if he had, then Farage and the Europhobes within the party would have railed against it, whatever it was. He could only give his side of the argument.
I LOL at you calling Cameron inept. I mean, the Europhobes have hardly shone, have they? A bunch of nasty incompetent fuckwits.
And Cameron let them in by being a conceited second rater. So your point is a strong one but against rather than for him.
Nah. Cameron's head nad shoulders above people like Farage, both in intellect and ability.
His issue was that it's really, really hard to argue against lies and falsehoods - as we see so often on here. If someone's idea of the truth is fluid (as was the Europhobe's definition of Brexit), then it's like squeezing a balloon - you demolish one argument, only for the arguer to inflate a different argument. Lies can also be very persuasive, as the truth is messy.
I really dislike Theresa May's politics in many respects, but as a person she seems alright. I like to see former PMs who don't think that the daily grind of politics is beneath them.
One of the reasons I ended up voting for Labour in this election, was for Ed Miliband to be in charge of energy and climate in the next Cabinet. I didn't vote for his local candidate at GE 2015, but I think he has a real interest in this area of policy, and I hope good will come of his time as a Cabinet Minister.
I agree. Whilst her politics are not mine, she comes across as a decent public servant.
Agreed and genuinely pained to see the direction her Party has travelled
I also think this country would have been better off economically had they voted for her Brexit deal.
Whilst I agree about her Brexit version, she really was an awful PM and Home Secretary. She was a Twin set and Pearls version of Patel or Braverman, authoritarian in the extreme and responsible for a huge amount of misery for a lot of innocent people. I was delighted when she fell, even if far less delighted with the choice of successor.
In any traditional Conservative government, May occupies a position similar to Sunak. On the bus, but to the right of that bus.
At the moment, both of them are somewhere on the left, probably hanging on to the outside for grim life. I'm sure some people see that change as a good thing, but I struggle to ee it myself.
No one forced May to send out vans telling immigrants to go home. No one forced her to develop a culture at the Home Office that led to the Windrush scandal. This was all in the Cameron/Coalition years - held up by many to be a period of centralism at least as far as social issues are concerned - and was entirely self inflicted.
My prediction for Theresa May is that she'll spend a few years doing something like Churchwarden of her Church of England Parish (which is a surprisingly big job in a lot of cases), or other pivotal role in the local community.
Our last-but-two churchwarden was the retired Quartermaster-General to the Forces. At one point the diocese decided it wanted to amalgamate our parish with a few neighbouring ones. Lt Gen Sir Retired Quartermaster-General was not having any of it. I don't know exactly what transpired in the negotiations but let's just say we are still a single parish.
"Fair play to Southgate. He’s doing just enough to get us through while avoiding any national feel-good factor that might benefit the Tories. After Thursday we’ll be like 1970 Brazil."
I really dislike Theresa May's politics in many respects, but as a person she seems alright. I like to see former PMs who don't think that the daily grind of politics is beneath them.
One of the reasons I ended up voting for Labour in this election, was for Ed Miliband to be in charge of energy and climate in the next Cabinet. I didn't vote for his local candidate at GE 2015, but I think he has a real interest in this area of policy, and I hope good will come of his time as a Cabinet Minister.
I agree. Whilst her politics are not mine, she comes across as a decent public servant.
A mixed bag. She campaigned against institutionalised racism, and for GRC Reform, but was also behind the "Hostile Environment" and Windrush scandal.
Better than most recent Tory Prime Ministers isn't a very high bar.
She was the worst. Her “red line” speech - entirely unwanted - made sure Brexit would be hideously painful and costly
Nah, your hero Farage did that - along with the other Europhobes - when they did not set what Brexit meant for the referendum. A central lie that led to this mess.
As ever with you, it's someone else's fault.
Believe it or not I partly agree with you here
A failure to define Brexit before the referendum WAS a fundamental error, but the responsibility lies not with Farage - he’s a blustering populist who was never in charge and therefore decided nothing. PM Cameron should have imposed this stipulation
The whole vote was a shambolic disgrace. We should have had a formal national discussion about what Brexit might mean on both sides. We should have had a two stage vote. Remain or Leave, then, if Leave - what kind
Cameron fucked the whole thing, just as he fucked the “renegotiations” and then lost the vote with his ineptitude. Quite why @TSE worships him escapes me. A mediocrity
Very, very, rarely do I agree with you but you are spot on about this.
I voted Leave and I’m still glad we Left and I’d vote Leave again - but I deeply regret the division Brexit has wrought. And the amateurish way we handled everything has made a tough time much more painful than it needed to be
And I now have more respect for the people who say referendums are dangerous and often damaging. After indyref and Brexit who does not think that?
Sometimes they are unavoidable - and matters as big as Indy or Brexit do require a public vote. But if we are going to have them - rarely - we need to develop a more mature way of handling them. The Irish seem to do them quite well. They have a big national debate first. We could learn from that
The way it should have been handled was like this:
1) vote yes/no to negotiate a specific leaving deal.
2) once the specific deal is secured, have a legally binding yes/no vote to implement that specific deal.
It was done back to front: we basically left the house with no keys, no wallet, no phone because we wanted to go find those things after we slammed the door shut. Total madness.
Just to highlight the lack of competence in british politics, nobody questioned the technicalities of the referendum. It was simply seen as a gimmick to shut up the alt right brexiteers, because it was assumed they would lose. Assumption is the basis of all fuck ups.
You are neglecting one small tiny fact there and it is so small I am almost loathe to raise it.
The fact being the EU would not negotiate prior to article 50 actually being triggered so your way of handling it could not have happened even if politicians had wanted to
Despite a slightly smaller gap, sub 20 makes defending seats tough for the Tories.
The very small Green number and lack of London Green surge implies their strength is elsewhere, which is very interesting. I am keeping a beady eye on the Greens in this election. They caused quite a few shocks in rural council seats at the locals. Watch out for the rural NIMBY Greens.
I think Reform are slightly high here for London too. This was taken at what I think was peak Ref/baseline Tory. Tory holds on these figures (perhaps) - Orpington, Romford, Ruislip, Hornchurch, Old Bexley, Sutton and Cheam. I've got them holding 10 min in London so some recovery required!
Applying the old LLG vs RefCon logic (which I know you all love) to the national results in France, they are:
LLG 52, RefCon 45
As they don’t have SNP or Plaid equivalents this is closer to 100% than the GB version.
The difference being that “RefCon” is dominated by the Reform equivalent, and the Liberal bit is a larger chunk of LLG.
Much of the French Left, however, would lump Macron in with the Right. And, the Republicans probably divide evenly between RN and Macron, if forced to choose, but probably 90/10 in favour of RN or Macron, against the Left.
Parts of the French left think Macron is a fascist. It’s like the worst of the Corbynistas at their peak when faced with Lib Dems on their patch.
Yes. I don’t think left wing PB understands what the far left in France is like. They can make Corbyn appear reasonable
I really dislike Theresa May's politics in many respects, but as a person she seems alright. I like to see former PMs who don't think that the daily grind of politics is beneath them.
One of the reasons I ended up voting for Labour in this election, was for Ed Miliband to be in charge of energy and climate in the next Cabinet. I didn't vote for his local candidate at GE 2015, but I think he has a real interest in this area of policy, and I hope good will come of his time as a Cabinet Minister.
I agree. Whilst her politics are not mine, she comes across as a decent public servant.
Agreed and genuinely pained to see the direction her Party has travelled
I also think this country would have been better off economically had they voted for her Brexit deal.
Whilst I agree about her Brexit version, she really was an awful PM and Home Secretary. She was a Twin set and Pearls version of Patel or Braverman, authoritarian in the extreme and responsible for a huge amount of misery for a lot of innocent people. I was delighted when she fell, even if far less delighted with the choice of successor.
In any traditional Conservative government, May occupies a position similar to Sunak. On the bus, but to the right of that bus.
At the moment, both of them are somewhere on the left, probably hanging on to the outside for grim life. I'm sure some people see that change as a good thing, but I struggle to ee it myself.
No one forced May to send out vans telling immigrants to go home. No one forced her to develop a culture at the Home Office that led to the Windrush scandal. This was all in the Cameron/Coalition years - held up by many to be a period of centralism at least as far as social issues are concerned - and was entirely self inflicted.
My prediction for Theresa May is that she'll spend a few years doing something like Churchwarden of her Church of England Parish (which is a surprisingly big job in a lot of cases), or other pivotal role in the local community.
Our last-but-two churchwarden was the retired Quartermaster-General to the Forces. At one point the diocese decided it wanted to amalgamate our parish with a few neighbouring ones. Lt Gen Sir Retired Quartermaster-General was not having any of it. I don't know exactly what transpired in the negotiations but let's just say we are still a single parish.
This always happens irrespective of former rank. Amalgamation of 5 parishes means 4 sets of redundancies.
It's heartwarming to see people who voted for Brexit now asking "How could it have been less of a shitshow..?"
Better late than never I suppose.
It will now be less of a shitshow with Labour making the most of the opportunities Brexit brings.
That's why I voted for it - in order to give a future Labour government more freedom to run the country in a better way, without being shackled by the diktats of the capitalist free market hegemony in Brussels.
"Fair play to Southgate. He’s doing just enough to get us through while avoiding any national feel-good factor that might benefit the Tories. After Thursday we’ll be like 1970 Brazil."
TBH Starmer has been a lucky leader of the opposition. Having the government implode in spectacular style has made his task a lot easier. Even the 'safe pair of hands' brought in at the end proved to be out of his depth.
It would be perfect for him to sweep to power and have one of his first duties welcoming the winning Euro's England team to No 10.
The disturbing reports are that the Biden family are robustly telling him that he is absolutely right to remain the candidate and that its the fault of his advisors for letting him go on stage "over prepared" whatever that is supposed to mean.
If they let him continue, Trump wins and the hard right across the world will smash and invade whatever they like, with the so-called leader of the "free world" cheering them on.
If the DNC face down the Biden family and say "its over" then surely its over? Forget the election for a minute and assume that he wins. That is not the end. Its the beginning of 4 more years where the CinC isn't capable.
Applying the old LLG vs RefCon logic (which I know you all love) to the national results in France, they are:
LLG 52, RefCon 45
As they don’t have SNP or Plaid equivalents this is closer to 100% than the GB version.
The difference being that “RefCon” is dominated by the Reform equivalent, and the Liberal bit is a larger chunk of LLG.
Much of the French Left, however, would lump Macron in with the Right. And, the Republicans probably divide evenly between RN and Macron, if forced to choose, but probably 90/10 in favour of RN or Macron, against the Left.
Parts of the French left think Macron is a fascist. It’s like the worst of the Corbynistas at their peak when faced with Lib Dems on their patch.
Yes. I don’t think left wing PB understands what the far left in France is like. They can make Corbyn appear reasonable
They still have actual communists out in the field don't they?
I saw a brilliant line in either the guardian or the FT this morning - it said
“there may be an alliance between France Insoumise… and the more moderate parties, like the communists”
It's why I'm gratified that a solid 45% of the good people of St Vincent des Pres continue to put their trust in the yellows of Ensemble. Even my eco-lefty neighbours grudgingly accept Macron's a reasonable politician. They are more Waveney Valley or North Herefordshire than Bristol Central or Rochdale in their attitudes.
It's one of the last liberal redoubts, perched atop its liberal cow-grazed ridge, the golden stone farmhouses and ruins reflecting back the gentle amber light of their Jupiterian president. The Kingston and Surbiton or Westmorland and Lonsdale of the French political scene.
This is the first trip to France where I’ve realised that many French people despise macron and he despises them right back
I had to go to left behind France to do it. So thanks to @another_richard for nagging me to make the effort
Tho even left behind France is rather lovely - at least in Brittany. Probably not in Picardy
Well Amiens is rather lovely. Also the birthplace of President Macron of course.
Meanwhile the Led by Donkeys stunt on Nigel Farage is one of the funniest moments of the campaign. How the heck did they pull it off? Democracy is great.
Is Farage getting Michael Portillo´s cast off jackets?
A better man would have made a joke about it while a lackey got it raised back up asap. His retort of 'someone is getting sacked' then the 'rip! it! down!' just confirms what I've always felt about him.
Despite a slightly smaller gap, sub 20 makes defending seats tough for the Tories.
The very small Green number and lack of London Green surge implies their strength is elsewhere, which is very interesting. I am keeping a beady eye on the Greens in this election. They caused quite a few shocks in rural council seats at the locals. Watch out for the rural NIMBY Greens.
The 'others' in London will principally be the left wing Indys standing in Islington, Chingford, and Ilford - as their campaigns have got going they've picked up a lot of former Labour voters in those few areas. Whereas the drop in the Tory vote is likely evenly spread, with the shift to Reform making Tory candidates' tasks more difficult across the capital.
The disturbing reports are that the Biden family are robustly telling him that he is absolutely right to remain the candidate and that its the fault of his advisors for letting him go on stage "over prepared" whatever that is supposed to mean.
If they let him continue, Trump wins and the hard right across the world will smash and invade whatever they like, with the so-called leader of the "free world" cheering them on.
If the DNC face down the Biden family and say "its over" then surely its over? Forget the election for a minute and assume that he wins. That is not the end. Its the beginning of 4 more years where the CinC isn't capable.
It is beyond ridiculous and extremely, wildly irresponsible and dangerous to now run Biden.
But does anyone in the Dems have the guts at this late hour to stand up against his family?
ydoethur said: » show previous quotes North Korea was supported by the Soviets, not China, at the time of the invasion. China joined later when MacArthur started threatening to invade them as well.
The South Korean Dictatorship at the time was far nastier and more bloodthirsty than the north and the North Korean invasion was in response to the Souths openly stated aim to invade and conquer it with US aid
Are you already on page two of Putinist talking points?
If Putin´s only friend is now North Korea, I think we can judge a man by that friendship.
I don't support the IRA and happily condemn what they did but I can quite understand why someone growing up in West Belfast in the 50s/60s would join them.
The catholic community was (sorely) provoked.
Unless you can get into the other sides head and see why thy are doing what they are doing (yes Putin took the decision but he couldn't have done it without mass support in Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk, due to a greviance), you end up being a black and white woodentop spouting black and white goodies and baddies views.
Similarly. The German people were also sorely provoked by the west rubbing their noses in it at Versailles. Thats why they voted for Hitler in the first place.
I really dislike Theresa May's politics in many respects, but as a person she seems alright. I like to see former PMs who don't think that the daily grind of politics is beneath them.
One of the reasons I ended up voting for Labour in this election, was for Ed Miliband to be in charge of energy and climate in the next Cabinet. I didn't vote for his local candidate at GE 2015, but I think he has a real interest in this area of policy, and I hope good will come of his time as a Cabinet Minister.
I agree. Whilst her politics are not mine, she comes across as a decent public servant.
Agreed and genuinely pained to see the direction her Party has travelled
I also think this country would have been better off economically had they voted for her Brexit deal.
Whilst I agree about her Brexit version, she really was an awful PM and Home Secretary. She was a Twin set and Pearls version of Patel or Braverman, authoritarian in the extreme and responsible for a huge amount of misery for a lot of innocent people. I was delighted when she fell, even if far less delighted with the choice of successor.
In any traditional Conservative government, May occupies a position similar to Sunak. On the bus, but to the right of that bus.
At the moment, both of them are somewhere on the left, probably hanging on to the outside for grim life. I'm sure some people see that change as a good thing, but I struggle to ee it myself.
No one forced May to send out vans telling immigrants to go home. No one forced her to develop a culture at the Home Office that led to the Windrush scandal. This was all in the Cameron/Coalition years - held up by many to be a period of centralism at least as far as social issues are concerned - and was entirely self inflicted.
My prediction for Theresa May is that she'll spend a few years doing something like Churchwarden of her Church of England Parish (which is a surprisingly big job in a lot of cases), or other pivotal role in the local community.
Our last-but-two churchwarden was the retired Quartermaster-General to the Forces. At one point the diocese decided it wanted to amalgamate our parish with a few neighbouring ones. Lt Gen Sir Retired Quartermaster-General was not having any of it. I don't know exactly what transpired in the negotiations but let's just say we are still a single parish.
15 odd years ago I carefully ensured that the parish I was Deanery Synod rep on was kept well away from the merger plans - did take a bit of work but it's remained that way through 2 further consolidation attempts (the fact it contains over 1/3 of the towns population makes it a difficult argument to combat).
This is not good for Biden. This guy is influential - and relatively neutral
“I just spoke to one of the most respected doctors in the world. He says that it is eminently apparent that @POTUS Biden has lewy body dementia, Parkinson’s and/or Alzheimer’s and that his decline will not be linear. It will accelerate.”
Applying the old LLG vs RefCon logic (which I know you all love) to the national results in France, they are:
LLG 52, RefCon 45
As they don’t have SNP or Plaid equivalents this is closer to 100% than the GB version.
The difference being that “RefCon” is dominated by the Reform equivalent, and the Liberal bit is a larger chunk of LLG.
Much of the French Left, however, would lump Macron in with the Right. And, the Republicans probably divide evenly between RN and Macron, if forced to choose, but probably 90/10 in favour of RN or Macron, against the Left.
Parts of the French left think Macron is a fascist. It’s like the worst of the Corbynistas at their peak when faced with Lib Dems on their patch.
Yes. I don’t think left wing PB understands what the far left in France is like. They can make Corbyn appear reasonable
They still have actual communists out in the field don't they?
I saw a brilliant line in either the guardian or the FT this morning - it said
“there may be an alliance between France Insoumise… and the more moderate parties, like the communists”
It's why I'm gratified that a solid 45% of the good people of St Vincent des Pres continue to put their trust in the yellows of Ensemble. Even my eco-lefty neighbours grudgingly accept Macron's a reasonable politician. They are more Waveney Valley or North Herefordshire than Bristol Central or Rochdale in their attitudes.
It's one of the last liberal redoubts, perched atop its liberal cow-grazed ridge, the golden stone farmhouses and ruins reflecting back the gentle amber light of their Jupiterian president. The Kingston and Surbiton or Westmorland and Lonsdale of the French political scene.
This is the first trip to France where I’ve realised that many French people despise macron and he despises them right back
I had to go to left behind France to do it. So thanks to @another_richard for nagging me to make the effort
Tho even left behind France is rather lovely - at least in Brittany. Probably not in Picardy
Well Amiens is rather lovely. Also the birthplace of President Macron of course.
Also the location of the battle that started the "100 days", when the British and allies drove the Germans to defeat in 1918. The one and only time in the history of war in Europe that the British ended as the strongest army in the field.
Meanwhile the Led by Donkeys stunt on Nigel Farage is one of the funniest moments of the campaign. How the heck did they pull it off? Democracy is great.
Despite a slightly smaller gap, sub 20 makes defending seats tough for the Tories.
The very small Green number and lack of London Green surge implies their strength is elsewhere, which is very interesting. I am keeping a beady eye on the Greens in this election. They caused quite a few shocks in rural council seats at the locals. Watch out for the rural NIMBY Greens.
The 'others' in London will principally be the left wing Indys standing in Islington, Chingford, and Ilford - as their campaigns have got going they've picked up a lot of former Labour voters in those few areas. Whereas the drop in the Tory vote is likely evenly spread, with the shift to Reform making Tory candidates' tasks more difficult across the capital.
Savanta has also been producing highish Other scores nationally.
I really dislike Theresa May's politics in many respects, but as a person she seems alright. I like to see former PMs who don't think that the daily grind of politics is beneath them.
One of the reasons I ended up voting for Labour in this election, was for Ed Miliband to be in charge of energy and climate in the next Cabinet. I didn't vote for his local candidate at GE 2015, but I think he has a real interest in this area of policy, and I hope good will come of his time as a Cabinet Minister.
I agree. Whilst her politics are not mine, she comes across as a decent public servant.
A mixed bag. She campaigned against institutionalised racism, and for GRC Reform, but was also behind the "Hostile Environment" and Windrush scandal.
Better than most recent Tory Prime Ministers isn't a very high bar.
She was the worst. Her “red line” speech - entirely unwanted - made sure Brexit would be hideously painful and costly
Nah, your hero Farage did that - along with the other Europhobes - when they did not set what Brexit meant for the referendum. A central lie that led to this mess.
As ever with you, it's someone else's fault.
Believe it or not I partly agree with you here
A failure to define Brexit before the referendum WAS a fundamental error, but the responsibility lies not with Farage - he’s a blustering populist who was never in charge and therefore decided nothing. PM Cameron should have imposed this stipulation
The whole vote was a shambolic disgrace. We should have had a formal national discussion about what Brexit might mean on both sides. We should have had a two stage vote. Remain or Leave, then, if Leave - what kind
Cameron fucked the whole thing, just as he fucked the “renegotiations” and then lost the vote with his ineptitude. Quite why @TSE worships him escapes me. A mediocrity
Unfortunately, that would have been a non-starter. A debate before the Brexit vote would have descended into even more of
"If we want the freedom to do X, it will have bad consequence Y, because that's how the EU operates."
"No, that's just Project Fear. Once we have a proper negotiator in place, they will back down."
Of course, it was Prince Boris who cynically encouraged that misguided attitude amongst his followers, to the extent that 'Cakeism' has now entered the British political lexicon.
Greenpeace? For old fogeys. The cool kids are all about Just Stop Oil now (XR are too mainstream).
Well yes. Although I should have pointed out that (despite the fact that I obviously adore the man) this is yet another case of a sleb telling us who to vote for
And he is aging fast. He's 66 and looks older. He was 47-54 in The Thick Of It. Tempus is fugit-ing
NY Times reporting that Biden's family have rallied around him at Camp David and persuaded him to stay in the race.
Ship of fools.
Magnificent news for my betting though.
I have been thinking about this a lot recently. I think it's probably now ~ 85% we have a Biden vs Trump contest, up from ~ 75% in the immediate aftermath of the debate. & Should Biden drop out, I can't see past Harris becoming the Dem candidate based on a good few things I am thinking of writing an article on. Then of course in November whoever is the nominee has to beat Trump.
The prices on exchanges and betting markets for Gavin Newsom and Michelle Obama are horrendously, unfathomably short. They ought to be around the Buttigieg mark (& possibly Whitmer) - who are good long odds buys in the hundreds to one.
I'm on a lot of these characters - Whitmar, Shapiro etc etc and quite red on Biden.
It seems very likely now though that the Dem fools will allow him to run and lose and plunge America into Trump 2.0 and massive constitutional crisis.
They will have only themselves to blame when night falls across the land.
An unequivocal Trump win, as seems likely every time one gazes on the flaccid Parkinsonian mask of Biden's features, won't be a constitutional crisis unless the Dems turn it into one by not accepting the result.
I've no doubt he'd like to engineer a third term but I don't see a viable route to that for him.
That's what I mean. Trump doesn't believe in the constitution or the rule of law. So his term will be constant battles to undo bits of it all and most obviously, as you say, get a third term.
I really dislike Theresa May's politics in many respects, but as a person she seems alright. I like to see former PMs who don't think that the daily grind of politics is beneath them.
One of the reasons I ended up voting for Labour in this election, was for Ed Miliband to be in charge of energy and climate in the next Cabinet. I didn't vote for his local candidate at GE 2015, but I think he has a real interest in this area of policy, and I hope good will come of his time as a Cabinet Minister.
I agree. Whilst her politics are not mine, she comes across as a decent public servant.
A mixed bag. She campaigned against institutionalised racism, and for GRC Reform, but was also behind the "Hostile Environment" and Windrush scandal.
Better than most recent Tory Prime Ministers isn't a very high bar.
She was the worst. Her “red line” speech - entirely unwanted - made sure Brexit would be hideously painful and costly
Nah, your hero Farage did that - along with the other Europhobes - when they did not set what Brexit meant for the referendum. A central lie that led to this mess.
As ever with you, it's someone else's fault.
Believe it or not I partly agree with you here
A failure to define Brexit before the referendum WAS a fundamental error, but the responsibility lies not with Farage - he’s a blustering populist who was never in charge and therefore decided nothing. PM Cameron should have imposed this stipulation
The whole vote was a shambolic disgrace. We should have had a formal national discussion about what Brexit might mean on both sides. We should have had a two stage vote. Remain or Leave, then, if Leave - what kind
Cameron fucked the whole thing, just as he fucked the “renegotiations” and then lost the vote with his ineptitude. Quite why @TSE worships him escapes me. A mediocrity
Very, very, rarely do I agree with you but you are spot on about this.
I voted Leave and I’m still glad we Left and I’d vote Leave again - but I deeply regret the division Brexit has wrought. And the amateurish way we handled everything has made a tough time much more painful than it needed to be
And I now have more respect for the people who say referendums are dangerous and often damaging. After indyref and Brexit who does not think that?
Sometimes they are unavoidable - and matters as big as Indy or Brexit do require a public vote. But if we are going to have them - rarely - we need to develop a more mature way of handling them. The Irish seem to do them quite well. They have a big national debate first. We could learn from that
The way it should have been handled was like this:
1) vote yes/no to negotiate a specific leaving deal.
2) once the specific deal is secured, have a legally binding yes/no vote to implement that specific deal.
It was done back to front: we basically left the house with no keys, no wallet, no phone because we wanted to go find those things after we slammed the door shut. Total madness.
Just to highlight the lack of competence in british politics, nobody questioned the technicalities of the referendum. It was simply seen as a gimmick to shut up the alt right brexiteers, because it was assumed they would lose. Assumption is the basis of all fuck ups.
You are neglecting one small tiny fact there and it is so small I am almost loathe to raise it.
The fact being the EU would not negotiate prior to article 50 actually being triggered so your way of handling it could not have happened even if politicians had wanted to
Yes. Finding leverage would have been extremely tricky; the real problem of course was that we had helped create an EU which we neither wanted to remain in or leave (this is still the case) and where leaving was as lonely as a Tory MP wanting to leave the party but stay in politics.
The only sane course was (and still is) to negotiate Norway or Switzerland type terms, from which position you could adopt a generation long 'think, prepare, wait and see' approach.
A less sane but possible approach would have been much more extreme. Adopt immediately an approach of 'no deal unless' accompanied by a real threat - that the millions of EU people in the UK would become persona non grata and have to leave unless we were offered what we wanted.
NY Times reporting that Biden's family have rallied around him at Camp David and persuaded him to stay in the race.
Ship of fools.
They were never going to against him. Jill perhaps could persuade him in private, but this “summit” was designed to recommend whatever Biden wanted to do
This is not good for Biden. This guy is influential - and relatively neutral
“I just spoke to one of the most respected doctors in the world. He says that it is eminently apparent that @POTUS Biden has lewy body dementia, Parkinson’s and/or Alzheimer’s and that his decline will not be linear. It will accelerate.”
Despite a slightly smaller gap, sub 20 makes defending seats tough for the Tories.
The very small Green number and lack of London Green surge implies their strength is elsewhere, which is very interesting. I am keeping a beady eye on the Greens in this election. They caused quite a few shocks in rural council seats at the locals. Watch out for the rural NIMBY Greens.
The 'others' in London will principally be the left wing Indys standing in Islington, Chingford, and Ilford - as their campaigns have got going they've picked up a lot of former Labour voters in those few areas. Whereas the drop in the Tory vote is likely evenly spread, with the shift to Reform making Tory candidates' tasks more difficult across the capital.
1% would give all 3 of those indies nearly 40% of the vote each. Its therefore likely a mix of them, the Newham Indies, other indies and Workers, 5% of Londons vote is a sizeable chunk, 200,000 votes or so, 3000 per constituency
This is not good for Biden. This guy is influential - and relatively neutral
“I just spoke to one of the most respected doctors in the world. He says that it is eminently apparent that @POTUS Biden has lewy body dementia, Parkinson’s and/or Alzheimer’s and that his decline will not be linear. It will accelerate.”
This is not good for Biden. This guy is influential - and relatively neutral
“I just spoke to one of the most respected doctors in the world. He says that it is eminently apparent that @POTUS Biden has lewy body dementia, Parkinson’s and/or Alzheimer’s and that his decline will not be linear. It will accelerate.”
He set himself this test with an early debate and he failed it massively.
FFS quit the stage with dignity Joe.
Yes, it's very hard to imagine him making it through another 4 years of presidency. He needs to go.
But what an awful advert for democracy the US is currently making. What is wrong with their system that it ends up presenting such a terrible choice of presidents? While you can argue about their politics, almost every other nation in the world manages to find leaders that are at least mentally able and physically fit. It's the lowest of low bars. While we may gripe at a choice between Sunak and Starmer, we have it much better than the Americans.
Comments
Look at the polling numbers. Under Truss, even after she blew up the economy and resigned and the Cons were polling in the low 20s, Reform were averaging under 4%.
Then Sunak took over and the polling went to 6 by the end of 2022. It's quite a marked jump.
A third or more of Reform voters are just there for the racism.
1) vote yes/no to negotiate a specific leaving deal.
2) once the specific deal is secured, have a legally binding yes/no vote to implement that specific deal.
It was done back to front: we basically left the house with no keys, no wallet, no phone because we wanted to go find those things after we slammed the door shut. Total madness.
Just to highlight the lack of competence in british politics, nobody questioned the technicalities of the referendum. It was simply seen as a gimmick to shut up the alt right brexiteers, because it was assumed they would lose. Assumption is the basis of all fuck ups.
The problem is the major constitutional change, as much as it’s the methodology. By its very nature it’s always going to be rather divisive.
Some unusually subtle insults there for you, @TSE,
That the perception and the reality have got worse in the last twenty years isn't entirely her fault.
Better late than never I suppose.
“As Leon Samsa awoke one morning in St Malo, after uneasy dreams, he found himself transformed into an enormous Lib Dem”
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1379439/uk-election-polls-by-age/
Even if you think it's the right thing to do, we've not prepared for the consequences of achieving it, let alone worked out what levers to pull to make it happen.
I don't whether she is enough of a baker to take on the important role for elderly church ladies in England, which is judging a "which man can make the best scones, for a man" contest at the fate. Can also be applied to growing petunias.
I can also imagine her as a Ramblers' Association Footpath Inspection Team coordinator, for about half a county - which will involved scores or maybe hundreds of volunteers. Imagine the face of a Rights of Way Officer who gets 47 notices of blocked or unmaintained public footpaths from a former PM
“I just spoke to one of the most respected doctors in the world. He says that it is eminently apparent that @POTUS Biden has lewy body dementia, Parkinson’s and/or Alzheimer’s and that his decline will not be linear. It will accelerate.”
https://x.com/billackman/status/1807493665201197081?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
Biden surely has to go
It seems very likely now though that the Dem fools will allow him to run and lose and plunge America into Trump 2.0 and massive constitutional crisis.
They will have only themselves to blame when night falls across the land.
Hurrah for the bus company.
A couple of stragglers have appeared on the platform at Taunton though.
And the train is going to make extra stops at Worle and Yatton to pick up more stragglers.
I knew it was a good idea to keep the gas mask I bought when the government made face nappies compulsory for the sound scientific reason of not letting Nicola Sturgeon getting one over on them.
Still, free coffee in a minute.
But long story short, the big picture wasn't up for negotiation. There was a set of options on the menu, and the UK could choose roughly which one it wanted, perhaps with a bit of garnish.
There was never a special deal hidden under the counter.
I've no doubt he'd like to engineer a third term but I don't see a viable route to that for him.
He set himself this test with an early debate and he failed it massively.
FFS quit the stage with dignity Joe.
“there may be an alliance between France Insoumise… and the more moderate parties, like the communists”
So the POTUS has respected neurologists saying he’s demented and it will get much worse, quickly
This is an emergency for Dems now
Whereas Boris Johnson and Liz Truss were not merely wrong but malign and their selfish political and, lets face it, their personal conduct leaves me pretty cold too.
Seeing Theresa May campaigning like that does not change my views of her policies, but does make me quite proud of our democracy.
Civility and decency are actually the norm in our politics, which is why those -like Johnson, Truss and Farage- who break the unwritten rules of common decency should be shunned.
🚨NEW London Westminster voting intention for
@centreforlondon
📈 30 point Labour lead, as smaller parties & independents make gains
🌹Lab 49 (-6)
🌳Con 19 (-3)
➡️Reform 11 (+3)
🔶LD 10 (=)
🌎Green 6 (+1)
⚪️Other 5 (+4)
1,579 Londoners, 21-26 June
(change vs 10-18 June)
Despite a slightly smaller gap, sub 20 makes defending seats tough for the Tories.
If Putin´s only friend is now North Korea, I think we can judge a man by that friendship.
It's one of the last liberal redoubts, perched atop its liberal cow-grazed ridge, the golden stone farmhouses and ruins reflecting back the gentle amber light of their Jupiterian president. The Kingston and Surbiton or Westmorland and Lonsdale of the French political scene.
“At a meeting between Joe Biden and an EU leader earlier this year, the Europeans were relieved to find the US president sharp and cogent — until the final moments.
“He ended the meeting with the same anecdote he started with… Everyone’s heart sank””
https://x.com/henryjfoy/status/1807436476352790734?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
I had to go to left behind France to do it. So thanks to @another_richard for nagging me to make the effort
Tho even left behind France is rather lovely - at least in Brittany. Probably not in Picardy
Is Farage getting Michael Portillo´s cast off jackets?
His issue was that it's really, really hard to argue against lies and falsehoods - as we see so often on here. If someone's idea of the truth is fluid (as was the Europhobe's definition of Brexit), then it's like squeezing a balloon - you demolish one argument, only for the arguer to inflate a different argument. Lies can also be very persuasive, as the truth is messy.
"Fair play to Southgate. He’s doing just enough to get us through while avoiding any national feel-good factor that might benefit the Tories. After Thursday we’ll be like 1970 Brazil."
https://x.com/Jason_Spacey/status/1807495733597094157
The fact being the EU would not negotiate prior to article 50 actually being triggered so your way of handling it could not have happened even if politicians had wanted to
Tory holds on these figures (perhaps) - Orpington, Romford, Ruislip, Hornchurch, Old Bexley, Sutton and Cheam. I've got them holding 10 min in London so some recovery required!
That's why I voted for it - in order to give a future Labour government more freedom to run the country in a better way, without being shackled by the diktats of the capitalist free market hegemony in Brussels.
The future starts on Friday.
It would be perfect for him to sweep to power and have one of his first duties welcoming the winning Euro's England team to No 10.
If they let him continue, Trump wins and the hard right across the world will smash and invade whatever they like, with the so-called leader of the "free world" cheering them on.
If the DNC face down the Biden family and say "its over" then surely its over? Forget the election for a minute and assume that he wins. That is not the end. Its the beginning of 4 more years where the CinC isn't capable.
Extinction Rebellion are planning protests during July targeting 300 Insurance companies nationwide.
But does anyone in the Dems have the guts at this late hour to stand up against his family?
I fear not.
The catholic community was (sorely) provoked.
Unless you can get into the other sides head and see why thy are doing what they are doing (yes Putin took the decision but he couldn't have done it without mass support in Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk, due to a greviance), you end up being a black and white woodentop spouting black and white goodies and baddies views.
Similarly. The German people were also sorely provoked by the west rubbing their noses in it at Versailles. Thats why they voted for Hitler in the first place.
Jack Elsom
@JackElsom
I think we've just reached peak Ed Davey.
Sky News is reporting live from his latest stunt - a bungee jump.
The ticker along the bottom says: "Lib Dems announce boost for bereavement payments".
https://x.com/JackElsom/status/1807692444177170900
And he is aging fast. He's 66 and looks older. He was 47-54 in The Thick Of It. Tempus is fugit-ing
The only sane course was (and still is) to negotiate Norway or Switzerland type terms, from which position you could adopt a generation long 'think, prepare, wait and see' approach.
A less sane but possible approach would have been much more extreme. Adopt immediately an approach of 'no deal unless' accompanied by a real threat - that the millions of EU people in the UK would become persona non grata and have to leave unless we were offered what we wanted.
https://x.com/osinttechnical/status/1807643874564719000
But what an awful advert for democracy the US is currently making. What is wrong with their system that it ends up presenting such a terrible choice of presidents? While you can argue about their politics, almost every other nation in the world manages to find leaders that are at least mentally able and physically fit. It's the lowest of low bars. While we may gripe at a choice between Sunak and Starmer, we have it much better than the Americans.