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Fraser Nelson is right – politicalbetting.com
Fraser Nelson is right – politicalbetting.com
If Boris Johnson does want to come back to Tory politics, his holidaying while others tried to clean up his mess will be remembered by the activists he abandoned… https://t.co/Pifh9n9t4E
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Farage says posting far-right song was ‘mistake’
The Reform UK leader has been accused of using a song banned across Europe for its far-right connotations
Nigel Farage has been accused of using a song hijacked by the far right on a video attacking the Tories’ record on immigration.
A video, which has now been removed, posted on Farage’s Twitter/X account on June 5 featured a slowed-down version of L’Amour Toujours, a 1999 Italian disco hit, as background to an interview with Richard Holden, the Conservative chairman, and then a speech by the Reform UK leader.
However, the song has been banned across Europe for its far-right connotations after multiple viral videos showed Germans signing “Germany for the Germans, foreigners out” over the song’s refrain.
Farage said yesterday he “didn’t know” the connotations of the song and “once we realised what we’d done, we took it down”. The Reform leader told The Times the person who had posted the video had admitted he had made a “mistake”. Farage said: “Occasionally — occasionally — we make mistakes. When we realised what it was, it was gone.”
https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/farage-says-posting-far-right-song-was-mistake-z8fwbmjlm
More than that and its a strategy.
One of the reasons I ended up voting for Labour in this election, was for Ed Miliband to be in charge of energy and climate in the next Cabinet. I didn't vote for his local candidate at GE 2015, but I think he has a real interest in this area of policy, and I hope good will come of his time as a Cabinet Minister.
Is he really just a fiery speaker who's unfortunately also a bit dim?
I do not think that the war is developing necessarily to Russia's advantage.
My village in the Mâconnais is becoming increasingly like the fortress of Sedan as the advancing waves of Le Pen votes lap up closer and closer with each election.
RN are still in third in St Vincent des Pres on 18%. Ensemble won with 45%, then the left with 35%.
https://www.francetvinfo.fr/elections/resultats/saone-et-loire_71/saint-vincent-des-pres_71250
But time Cluny narrowly had RN ahead, 34 to 30. Contented, arty, cosmopolitan Cluny. Now fallen, another Bakhmut or Mariupol on the long road to the Le Pen supremacy.
Into the home stretch we go. Die is cast now, getting too late in the day for events so we are do. wn to GOTV and the late ditherers/pencil hoverers. Talking of which i still dont know whether to vote for whomever will upset Clive Lewis the most or write in a candidate in a spoil ballot effort. And if the latter who i write in
Meanwhile the Led by Donkeys stunt on Nigel Farage is one of the funniest moments of the campaign. How the heck did they pull it off? Democracy is great.
https://x.com/ByDonkeys/status/1807141707571454290
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/video/2024/jun/30/vladimir-putin-i-nigel-banner-lowered-by-protesters-during-farage-campaign-event-video
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/farage-left-red-faced-election-33136956
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/led-by-donkeys-nigel-farage-reform-putin-b2571256.html
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You'd better get down the bookies asap my friend, 11-4 for a 'shoo in' is an astonishing price
I might well do that
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I’ve watched you over the past fortnight hopping closer and closer to that rabbit hole. Getting close now.
Keep going and you’ll be joining Laurence Fox and Sean Thomas down there.
Whatsup Doc?
I also think this country would have been better off economically had they voted for her Brexit deal.
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North Korea was supported by the Soviets, not China, at the time of the invasion. China joined later when MacArthur started threatening to invade them as well.
The South Korean Dictatorship at the time was far nastier and more bloodthirsty than the north and the North Korean invasion was in response to the Souths openly stated aim to invade and conquer it with US aid
https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/06/27/oh-for-foxs-sake/
Having half a dozen candidates be pulled up for being racist dicks during the campaign is bad enough, but to start losing more of them to defection before the election even happens is hillarious.
Edit - Focaldata from 2, YG at 5
Redfield final call should be today i think.
Better than most recent Tory Prime Ministers isn't a very high bar.
John Redwood in his inimitable fashion is claiming the truth is the opposite of this, but what else do you expect from him?
Also, you seem to have overlooked the fact that the North had been trying to overthrow the government of the South for the previous three years through insurgencies and border incursions. That was the target of American offensive actions, not North Korea per se.
Look how David Icke singlehandedly destroyed the greens for a generation.
As to Tories getting the vapours when other parties use music with double meanings. Physician Heal Thyself.
https://www.thenational.scot/news/24420505.tory-student-group-apologises-dancing-nazi-marching-song/
A bit like her premiership.
https://x.com/visegrad24/status/1807587455740047380?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
Yes, that’s really going to win people over, for the second round. Vote for the bloc that destroys things, after a vote, or vote for the party that promises to bring order?
But better than her successors in both posts.
As ever with you, it's someone else's fault.
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You'd better get down the bookies asap my friend, 11-4 for a 'shoo in' is an astonishing price
PS. Labour are 2-5 on favourites in mid beds. Stephenson is 2:1.
West Dorset
Libs 2-7
Loder 5-2
West Dorset has an incumbent constituency focused Tory MP.
Mid Beds has no Tory incumbent and a poisoned well left by Nadine.
Odds Source - Ladbrokes
How many things have we now failed to save/be saved from?
People are still suffering as a result. She didn't fix the problem.
A failure to define Brexit before the referendum WAS a fundamental error, but the responsibility lies not with Farage - he’s a blustering populist who was never in charge and therefore decided nothing. PM Cameron should have imposed this stipulation
The whole vote was a shambolic disgrace. We should have had a formal national discussion about what Brexit might mean on both sides. We should have had a two stage vote. Remain or Leave, then, if Leave - what kind
Cameron fucked the whole thing, just as he fucked the “renegotiations” and then lost the vote with his ineptitude. Quite why @TSE worships him escapes me. A mediocrity
Use (and that's the only word for it) Farage followers to get the referendum over the line. Not actually endorsing their worldview, good heavens no, but let them vote Leave because their votes counted the same as anyone else's.
Then dump the ghastly oiks the nanosecond the referendum was done and ally with the former Remain voters to get a Nice Brexit. Or better still, get that nice Mr Cameron to do it, so that their hands were clean of the betrayal.
On paper, it's a good plan, but it fails the "you have to dance with the one that bring ya" test. Once Leave won on the basis of the official and unofficial campaigns that happened, we were always going to end up here.
In some ways, Brexit is very much like having a baby. You can't be a little bit pregnant.
So yes it was always going to be traumatic. But TMay’s speech was the equivalent of saying - for no reason - “right I’m having this baby at home, in the dark, no anaesthetic, and make sure the midwife is drunk”
I'll just get a bag of chips on the way home
Pandering to the Right is such a fatal error in this country (as is pandering to the Left).
We all know why they’ve done it: the barely concealed fissure running through the Party which David Cameron re-opened with his poorly prepared referendum; Boris Johnson’s unscrupulous dog whistling; and Sunak’s weak deal with the devil.
However, in terms of actually winning a British General Election there’s limited oxygen out on the Right. Furthermore, by lurching out there and disenfranchising centrist tories, they’ve allowed Keir Starmer to hold the middle ground.
I don’t know where the Conservatives go from here, or even IF they can. It was easier for Neil Kinnock to purge Militant than it’s going to be for sensible tories to take back control (!) of their Party.
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/world/france-election-protests-paris-marine-le-pen-national-rally-macron-b1167813.html
At the moment, both of them are somewhere on the left, probably hanging on to the outside for grim life. I'm sure some people see that change as a good thing, but I struggle to ee it myself.
Because I was right all along.
It was that last point which pushed me from Brexit support.
Ship of fools.
I have been thinking about this a lot recently. I think it's probably now ~ 85% we have a Biden vs Trump contest, up from ~ 75% in the immediate aftermath of the debate. & Should Biden drop out, I can't see past Harris becoming the Dem candidate based on a good few things I am thinking of writing an article on. Then of course in November whoever is the nominee has to beat Trump.
The prices on exchanges and betting markets for Gavin Newsom and Michelle Obama are horrendously, unfathomably short. They ought to be around the Buttigieg mark (& possibly Whitmer) - who are good long odds buys in the hundreds to one.
Has anyone told @TSE ?!
If they get over it they might resist somewhat.
And I now have more respect for the people who say referendums are dangerous and often damaging. After indyref and Brexit who does not think that?
Sometimes they are unavoidable - and matters as big as Indy or Brexit do require a public vote. But if we are going to have them - rarely - we need to develop a more mature way of handling them. The Irish seem to do them quite well. They have a big national debate first. We could learn from that
"Protesters clashed with police in central Paris as demonstrations were held against Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally (RN), which jumped into an early lead in France’s snap election.
Thousands of people gathered in the Place de la Republique as first-round legislative elections on Sunday plunged the country into political uncertainty.
Video showed fireworks being set off in the direction of police who responded by firing tear gas.
Barricades designed to keep crowds under control were torched as protesters vented their anger."
Plus a short clip of 2 fireworks going nowhere near the police (I've had fireworks being fired much closer to me on NYE on the streets in Germany), and police firing a cannister of tear gas.
Not sure that counts as 'large riots across France', do you have anything else?
He's also made a video for Greenpeace on who you should vote for
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=61he5Z0e2sk
Which is the odd thing, given that the Tories are set up with much more centralised decision-making than Labour. Yet Starmer has managed to marginalise the left wing almost entirely, despite their dominance of the party machinery just a few years ago, whereas each Tory leader proves impotent in the face of their own internal nutters.
"If we want the freedom to do X, it will have bad consequence Y, because that's how the EU operates."
"No, that's just Project Fear. Once we have a proper negotiator in place, they will back down."
I LOL at you calling Cameron inept. I mean, the Europhobes have hardly shone, have they? A bunch of nasty incompetent fuckwits.
LLG 52, RefCon 45
As they don’t have SNP or Plaid equivalents this is closer to 100% than the GB version.
The difference being that “RefCon” is dominated by the Reform equivalent, and the Liberal bit is a larger chunk of LLG.
On David Cameron and the referendum you are absolutely spot on. It was unbelievably piss-poor.
I don’t know whether it was just hubris following the indyref ‘purring Queen’ success or just utter ineptitude on his part but it was such a cack-handed referendum. Everything, from the wording to the mechanism to the campaigning to the fact that no one had the faintest clue waking up on 24th June 2016 what it actually meant.
I’ve come to terms with us leaving the EU but the way we did it was shockingly inept.