Incidentally, there's currently a little low pressure system forecast to whip itself across the south of Britain early on Friday, potentially creating a rain in Downing Street test on Friday morning for the new PM.
"I am assured that a new dawn has broken, even though the rain clouds above us obscure that fact."
If Rishi Sunak hadn’t got into bed with Suella Braverman, which was her price for his leadership, and IF he had tacked central and attacked the Far Right instead from the outset I don’t think this would have been the catastrophic result it’s likely to be. I don’t think Sunak was a bad Chancellor. They should have laid into Reform long ago.
John Redwood in his inimitable fashion is claiming the truth is the opposite of this, but what else do you expect from him?
Reform seemed irrelevant until very recently. A year ago, they were polling 4-5%.
Reform is just a new name for what was already an electoral force within the conservative goverment and the key reason it couldn't govern or legislate. Reform didn't spring into existance out of nothing. In fact I see it as a retreat for the populist movement. It failed in its attemt to take over the conservative party from within after 2019. Now it is shuffling to another party, where it will slowly shrink into insignificance, due to the extreme high age of its supporters. Populism cannot govern... it can get elected on the back of high emotion and divisive politics, but it falters as soon as it is in office as the last many years have shown in the UK.
Reform's age profile is in line with that of the voters generally, if the polls are to be believed. It's the Conservatives who skew towards the elderly.
If the democrats proceed with Biden they are basically saying
1. It’s ok to lie about the most serious things in politics: like the mental state of the president
2. We think it’s ok to lie even when everyone knows we’re lying so we will do it again
3. We seriously want you to vote for a demented President because that’s more important than the security of the USA
4. We are too feeble to tell an old man to retire
5. For the next four years the country will be run by retired nanny Jill Biden and maybe her friend in the coffee shop
If the Republicans proceed with Trump they are basically saying:
1. It's OK for the president to lie about absolutely everything. 2. Who probably is actually insane. 3. Who has led an insurrection against the democratic institutions of his country. 4. Who has plausibly been in the pay of a country hostile to the United States 5. Who has a realistic possibility of being a convicted felon.
Yes. Why do you keep making this irrelevant and childish point? We all know the above which is why it is really important Trump loses. But if the Dems persist with Biden, then Trump almost certainly wins
If the democrats proceed with Biden they are basically saying
1. It’s ok to lie about the most serious things in politics: like the mental state of the president
2. We think it’s ok to lie even when everyone knows we’re lying so we will do it again
3. We seriously want you to vote for a demented President because that’s more important than the security of the USA
4. We are too feeble to tell an old man to retire
5. For the next four years the country will be run by retired nanny Jill Biden and maybe her friend in the coffee shop
If the Republicans proceed with Trump they are basically saying:
1. It's OK for the president to lie about absolutely everything. 2. Who probably is actually insane. 3. Who has led an insurrection against the democratic institutions of his country. 4. Who has plausibly been in the pay of a country hostile to the United States 5. Who has a realistic possibility of being a convicted felon.
Yes. Why do you keep making this irrelevant and childish point? We all know the above which is why it is really important Trump loses. But if the Dems persist with Biden, then Trump almost certainly wins
And when Trump wins and starts going senile in office the Dems cannot complain about it with a straight face as they were happy to put Biden forward in his condition.
Incidentally, there's currently a little low pressure system forecast to whip itself across the south of Britain early on Friday, potentially creating a rain in Downing Street test on Friday morning for the new PM.
"I am assured that a new dawn has broken, even though the rain clouds above us obscure that fact."
He'll have an umbrella, won't he?
He might do. The 10m wind forecast suggests that will not be without its own peril.
If the democrats proceed with Biden they are basically saying
1. It’s ok to lie about the most serious things in politics: like the mental state of the president
2. We think it’s ok to lie even when everyone knows we’re lying so we will do it again
3. We seriously want you to vote for a demented President because that’s more important than the security of the USA
4. We are too feeble to tell an old man to retire
5. For the next four years the country will be run by retired nanny Jill Biden and maybe her friend in the coffee shop
If the Republicans proceed with Trump they are basically saying:
1. It's OK for the president to lie about absolutely everything. 2. Who probably is actually insane. 3. Who has led an insurrection against the democratic institutions of his country. 4. Who has plausibly been in the pay of a country hostile to the United States 5. Who has a realistic possibility of being a convicted felon.
One of the problems is that the GOP do embrace that - and that the media and political class are unwilling to say it in that way. Dems and media still do the whole "we need a good strong GOP" or "this isn't your papas GOP" instead of being like "the GOP needs to be wiped off the map because it is a threat to your freedom as a woman, as a LGBTQ+ person, as an ethnic minority, etc. etc." The Dems and the media need to not treat the GOP with kid gloves, and they do.
Another pretty damning argument from Bill Ackman (he’s a billionaire finance dude who does some TV punditry etc)
“keep finding articles today which say dismissively that Biden had a bad debate, but, the articles go on to say, so did Obama and others and they were able to recover and win the office.
The issue, however, was not that @POTUS Biden had a bad debate. Rather, in just a few minutes, the entire world, including all of our enemies became definitively aware, if they were not already, that the President of the United States is not fit for office, let alone a second term.
This is not just an issue of Biden’s fitness for office. It is an issue of national security.
We know from the rally the day after the debate that Biden is still capable of reading from a teleprompter. But being president of the United States requires more than reading words written by others. Leadership requires world class executive function, which in Biden’s case is clearly profoundly impaired.
If China invades Taiwan tomorrow, how comfortable do you feel with our Commander in Chief?
I would not be surprised that the DNC called for an early debate because it was concerned that Biden was deteriorating rapidly and sooner was better than later. It figured that with a friendly moderator, no @RobertKennedyJr, no audience, silenced microphones, and six days of prep at Camp David, he could make it through, or as @FLOTUS Jill Biden explained: ‘Joe you did such a great job! You answered every question!’
Some of a president’s most important decisions must come when he is awakened at 3am when disaster or a threat emerges suddenly. Our enemies will strike when we are most vulnerable.
How is this not incredibly frightening?
Now explain to me how anyone can continue to support Biden for a second term.”
The House GOP should impeach Biden on grounds of incapacity.
Any Dem there or in the Senate would then have to justify supporting someone who is clearly not capable of being President.
And they would do that. And then you would have a president who had been impeached for senility but survived, same as Tory leaders survive voncs (vsonc) but are even more wounded thereafter than before.
If the democrats proceed with Biden they are basically saying
1. It’s ok to lie about the most serious things in politics: like the mental state of the president
2. We think it’s ok to lie even when everyone knows we’re lying so we will do it again
3. We seriously want you to vote for a demented President because that’s more important than the security of the USA
4. We are too feeble to tell an old man to retire
5. For the next four years the country will be run by retired nanny Jill Biden and maybe her friend in the coffee shop
If the Republicans proceed with Trump they are basically saying:
1. It's OK for the president to lie about absolutely everything. 2. Who probably is actually insane. 3. Who has led an insurrection against the democratic institutions of his country. 4. Who has plausibly been in the pay of a country hostile to the United States 5. Who has a realistic possibility of being a convicted felon.
One of the problems is that the GOP do embrace that - and that the media and political class are unwilling to say it in that way. Dems and media still do the whole "we need a good strong GOP" or "this isn't your papas GOP" instead of being like "the GOP needs to be wiped off the map because it is a threat to your freedom as a woman, as a LGBTQ+ person, as an ethnic minority, etc. etc." The Dems and the media need to not treat the GOP with kid gloves, and they do.
Er, they’re doing their very best to put Donald Trump in jail, and sometimes REALLY bending the law to do so. Arguably far too much
That’s not exactly “kid gloves” is it? Or should they just assassinate him?
ydoethur said: » show previous quotes North Korea was supported by the Soviets, not China, at the time of the invasion. China joined later when MacArthur started threatening to invade them as well.
The South Korean Dictatorship at the time was far nastier and more bloodthirsty than the north and the North Korean invasion was in response to the Souths openly stated aim to invade and conquer it with US aid
Are you already on page two of Putinist talking points?
If Putin´s only friend is now North Korea, I think we can judge a man by that friendship.
I don't support the IRA and happily condemn what they did but I can quite understand why someone growing up in West Belfast in the 50s/60s would join them.
The catholic community was (sorely) provoked.
Unless you can get into the other sides head and see why thy are doing what they are doing (yes Putin took the decision but he couldn't have done it without mass support in Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk, due to a greviance), you end up being a black and white woodentop spouting black and white goodies and baddies views.
Similarly. The German people were also sorely provoked by the west rubbing their noses in it at Versailles. Thats why they voted for Hitler in the first place.
So you think the creation of Poland was another of these 'historic monumental wrong crying out to heaven for vengeance'.
I get the impression that you would prefer it if all the countries between Germany and Russia ceased to exist.
I think that the history of the world is full of examples of areas where two (or more) peoples have successively been badly-treated, with reference to the mirror image actions before by the other side. Ireland is the classic example - it's impossible for any serious observer to deny that there have been faults on both sides. We should condemn military "solutions" like Putin's without trying to obscure the real faults that Ukrainian nationalism produced. In the best cases (e.g. Schleswig-Holstein) the "winners" at any given moment concede that the "losers" have a point and need to be given some leeway - in the case of Schleswig-Holstein by yielding territory where the surviving locals wanted it.
Schleswig Holstein type referendums in Crimea, Donsetsk and Luhansk Oblasts rather than pontificating about referendums 20 years previously held in the middle of a catastrophic national economic crisis unprecedented since world war 2 might well have avoided a lot of Bloodshed.
Perhaps there should be a referendum on Chechyn independence.
Or do you support referenda only in cases where it might expand Russian territory ?
Yes I would support a Chechen Referendum. How you would persuade the Russian government to grant one is the elephant in the room.
In some ways, Putins actions in Chechnya were far worse than his actions in Ukraine.
If the democrats proceed with Biden they are basically saying
1. It’s ok to lie about the most serious things in politics: like the mental state of the president
2. We think it’s ok to lie even when everyone knows we’re lying so we will do it again
3. We seriously want you to vote for a demented President because that’s more important than the security of the USA
4. We are too feeble to tell an old man to retire
5. For the next four years the country will be run by retired nanny Jill Biden and maybe her friend in the coffee shop
If the Republicans proceed with Trump they are basically saying:
1. It's OK for the president to lie about absolutely everything. 2. Who probably is actually insane. 3. Who has led an insurrection against the democratic institutions of his country. 4. Who has plausibly been in the pay of a country hostile to the United States 5. Who has a realistic possibility of being a convicted felon.
This engineering failure would embarrass North Korea.
This is apparently what was supposed to be a STATIC FIRE TEST today of a Tianlong-3 first stage by China's Space Pioneer. That's catastrophic, not static. Firm was targeting an orbital launch in the coming months.. https://x.com/AJ_FI/status/1807339807640518690
Impressive bang as it comes back to earth, though.
Rocket make big boom! 🚀
Did no-one realise that, for a static test fire, you’re supposed to have the rocket bolted down to the pad?
The 8 most likely Ref seats are probably Clacton, Ashfield, Castle Point, Boston & Skegness, Basildon South & Thurrock East, Hornchurch & Upminster, Great Yarmouth, Herne Bay & Sandwich, but they'll probably only win 2 or 3 of them imo.
Currently, they are favourites to win only one (Clacton) I think?
I don't know, I can't find the pages for constituency betting, but one might have thought they'd be favourites in Ashfield as well.
Ashfield is neck and neck Lab vs Reform on the bets, both at about 10/11.
Boris has no interest in going back to politics at the moment (and has never had May's sense of duty). He is currently enjoying life at his Oxfordshire mansion with his young family and Carrie and taking long holidays.
If Trump returns to power in November after being defeated in 2020 and if a Starmer government proves unpopular and the Tory Leader of the Opposition a dud he might though consider it. He would want to be begged by Tory MPs first though. He would also need a safe seat to be vacated by a Tory MP to make it possible in a by election, that is unlikely to be his former seats of Henley, likely to go LD on Thursday, or Uxbridge, likely to go Labour
ydoethur said: » show previous quotes North Korea was supported by the Soviets, not China, at the time of the invasion. China joined later when MacArthur started threatening to invade them as well.
The South Korean Dictatorship at the time was far nastier and more bloodthirsty than the north and the North Korean invasion was in response to the Souths openly stated aim to invade and conquer it with US aid
Are you already on page two of Putinist talking points?
If Putin´s only friend is now North Korea, I think we can judge a man by that friendship.
I don't support the IRA and happily condemn what they did but I can quite understand why someone growing up in West Belfast in the 50s/60s would join them.
The catholic community was (sorely) provoked.
Unless you can get into the other sides head and see why thy are doing what they are doing (yes Putin took the decision but he couldn't have done it without mass support in Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk, due to a greviance), you end up being a black and white woodentop spouting black and white goodies and baddies views.
Similarly. The German people were also sorely provoked by the west rubbing their noses in it at Versailles. Thats why they voted for Hitler in the first place.
So you think the creation of Poland was another of these 'historic monumental wrong crying out to heaven for vengeance'.
I get the impression that you would prefer it if all the countries between Germany and Russia ceased to exist.
I think that the history of the world is full of examples of areas where two (or more) peoples have successively been badly-treated, with reference to the mirror image actions before by the other side. Ireland is the classic example - it's impossible for any serious observer to deny that there have been faults on both sides. We should condemn military "solutions" like Putin's without trying to obscure the real faults that Ukrainian nationalism produced. In the best cases (e.g. Schleswig-Holstein) the "winners" at any given moment concede that the "losers" have a point and need to be given some leeway - in the case of Schleswig-Holstein by yielding territory where the surviving locals wanted it.
Schleswig Holstein type referendums in Crimea, Donsetsk and Luhansk Oblasts rather than pontificating about referendums 20 years previously held in the middle of a catastrophic national economic crisis unprecedented since world war 2 might well have avoided a lot of Bloodshed.
Perhaps there should be a referendum on Chechyn independence.
Or do you support referenda only in cases where it might expand Russian territory ?
Yes I would support a Chechen Referendum. How you would persuade the Russian government to grant one is the elephant in the room.
In some ways, Putins actions in Chechnya were far worse than his actions in Ukraine.
There was little support in Eastern Ukraine for joining Russia
Which is why Putin didn’t call for referenda - they would have produced the wrong result.
A big chunk of this was the actions of the “governments” setup in areas taken over by separatists in 2014. Described by those who saw them as worse than Yelstin era theft-as-government.
If the democrats proceed with Biden they are basically saying
1. It’s ok to lie about the most serious things in politics: like the mental state of the president
2. We think it’s ok to lie even when everyone knows we’re lying so we will do it again
3. We seriously want you to vote for a demented President because that’s more important than the security of the USA
4. We are too feeble to tell an old man to retire
5. For the next four years the country will be run by retired nanny Jill Biden and maybe her friend in the coffee shop
If the Republicans proceed with Trump they are basically saying:
1. It's OK for the president to lie about absolutely everything. 2. Who probably is actually insane. 3. Who has led an insurrection against the democratic institutions of his country. 4. Who has plausibly been in the pay of a country hostile to the United States 5. Who has a realistic possibility of being a convicted felon.
Yes. But @Leon makes an important point that the seriousness of the above is diluted by the Democrats running Biden. The Democrats need to be able to talk of the danger of Trump’s unsuitability for office without worrying about the unsuitability of their own candidate.
If the democrats proceed with Biden they are basically saying
1. It’s ok to lie about the most serious things in politics: like the mental state of the president
2. We think it’s ok to lie even when everyone knows we’re lying so we will do it again
3. We seriously want you to vote for a demented President because that’s more important than the security of the USA
4. We are too feeble to tell an old man to retire
5. For the next four years the country will be run by retired nanny Jill Biden and maybe her friend in the coffee shop
If the Republicans proceed with Trump they are basically saying:
1. It's OK for the president to lie about absolutely everything. 2. Who probably is actually insane. 3. Who has led an insurrection against the democratic institutions of his country. 4. Who has plausibly been in the pay of a country hostile to the United States 5. Who has a realistic possibility of being a convicted felon.
One of the problems is that the GOP do embrace that - and that the media and political class are unwilling to say it in that way. Dems and media still do the whole "we need a good strong GOP" or "this isn't your papas GOP" instead of being like "the GOP needs to be wiped off the map because it is a threat to your freedom as a woman, as a LGBTQ+ person, as an ethnic minority, etc. etc." The Dems and the media need to not treat the GOP with kid gloves, and they do.
Er, they’re doing their very best to put Donald Trump in jail, and sometimes REALLY bending the law to do so. Arguably far too much
That’s not exactly “kid gloves” is it? Or should they just assassinate him?
Bannon is about to start a 4 month prison sentence
This engineering failure would embarrass North Korea.
This is apparently what was supposed to be a STATIC FIRE TEST today of a Tianlong-3 first stage by China's Space Pioneer. That's catastrophic, not static. Firm was targeting an orbital launch in the coming months.. https://x.com/AJ_FI/status/1807339807640518690
Impressive bang as it comes back to earth, though.
Rocket make big boom! 🚀
Did no-one realise that, for a static test fire, you’re supposed to have the rocket bolted down to the pad?
Rocket science Bolt science
It’s difficult not to picture some poor mechanic sitting at his desk, looking at a bag of very large bolts, and thinking “Oh s!@#”.
Another pretty damning argument from Bill Ackman (he’s a billionaire finance dude who does some TV punditry etc)
“keep finding articles today which say dismissively that Biden had a bad debate, but, the articles go on to say, so did Obama and others and they were able to recover and win the office.
The issue, however, was not that @POTUS Biden had a bad debate. Rather, in just a few minutes, the entire world, including all of our enemies became definitively aware, if they were not already, that the President of the United States is not fit for office, let alone a second term.
This is not just an issue of Biden’s fitness for office. It is an issue of national security.
We know from the rally the day after the debate that Biden is still capable of reading from a teleprompter. But being president of the United States requires more than reading words written by others. Leadership requires world class executive function, which in Biden’s case is clearly profoundly impaired.
If China invades Taiwan tomorrow, how comfortable do you feel with our Commander in Chief?
I would not be surprised that the DNC called for an early debate because it was concerned that Biden was deteriorating rapidly and sooner was better than later. It figured that with a friendly moderator, no @RobertKennedyJr, no audience, silenced microphones, and six days of prep at Camp David, he could make it through, or as @FLOTUS Jill Biden explained: ‘Joe you did such a great job! You answered every question!’
Some of a president’s most important decisions must come when he is awakened at 3am when disaster or a threat emerges suddenly. Our enemies will strike when we are most vulnerable.
How is this not incredibly frightening?
Now explain to me how anyone can continue to support Biden for a second term.”
I do think that one of the reasons the Dems are refusing to stop Biden rerunning is any suggestion that he is unfit for office in the future would beg the question - is he fit now? And then the issue becomes the 25th Amendment. I think it may be correct that the 25th should be invoked, but that creates its own problems...
Everyone can see the problem; Leon's posts are just waffly statements of the obvious. The problem they, and by extension we, have is the lack of a realisable plan B. Hopefully they are working on one.
I mean reasonable plan B would have been to allow a primary to happen. This conference would have been a great big Ode to Biden, congratulating him for saving American democracy from Trump in 2020 and doing an okay job as POTUS (from the view of Democrats) on policy. It would have been his swansong, and then he could have passed the torch onto a successor. The Dems refused to do that - that is part of the reason so many people are both shocked and angry, because this has been clear for so long and the party still didn't do its duty to the country and (arguably) the world.
The only thing to do now is Biden should resign and retire - Kamala becomes POTUS and Biden releases his delegates at the conference and then the conference sorts it out. That will be messy - but it will be less messy than losing to Trump. That could lead to any number of people becoming the nominee - from Newsom to (sigh) Clinton - but at the moment that seems less risky then the risk of continuing to run Biden.
Even now Biden is polling better than Kamala v Trump, Newsom is a slimy coastal liberal elitist Trump would beat easily in the rustbelt. Hillary lost the rustbelt swing states only Biden won back in 2020
If the democrats proceed with Biden they are basically saying
1. It’s ok to lie about the most serious things in politics: like the mental state of the president
2. We think it’s ok to lie even when everyone knows we’re lying so we will do it again
3. We seriously want you to vote for a demented President because that’s more important than the security of the USA
4. We are too feeble to tell an old man to retire
5. For the next four years the country will be run by retired nanny Jill Biden and maybe her friend in the coffee shop
If the Republicans proceed with Trump they are basically saying:
1. It's OK for the president to lie about absolutely everything. 2. Who probably is actually insane. 3. Who has led an insurrection against the democratic institutions of his country. 4. Who has plausibly been in the pay of a country hostile to the United States 5. Who has a realistic possibility of being a convicted felon.
One of the problems is that the GOP do embrace that - and that the media and political class are unwilling to say it in that way. Dems and media still do the whole "we need a good strong GOP" or "this isn't your papas GOP" instead of being like "the GOP needs to be wiped off the map because it is a threat to your freedom as a woman, as a LGBTQ+ person, as an ethnic minority, etc. etc." The Dems and the media need to not treat the GOP with kid gloves, and they do.
Er, they’re doing their very best to put Donald Trump in jail, and sometimes REALLY bending the law to do so. Arguably far too much
That’s not exactly “kid gloves” is it? Or should they just assassinate him?
Trump should have been in jail ages ago and clearly has broken the law many times. He has gotten out of his legal troubles in the past because he has the wealth to settle - but now it's about more than just money for people, it's about principle and (yes) partisanship. If he had never got into politics I agree his illegal activities would probably have gone uninvestigated. That's not because what he did wasn't bad or illegal, it's because the US legal system is always deferential to wealth and power.
But I'm not just talking about Trump - I'm talking about the GOP. The GOP, as a party, was always going to produce someone like Trump to lead them - and the GOP would not be less evil if someone like Rubio or Cruz were the nominee. Mitch McConnell is a demon in human flesh. The Dems really don't bring the fight to what the GOP really believes and since Trump has always argued that he is atypical and that the "real" Republicans need to take their party back. But Trump is the manifestation of the Republican beliefs - demagoguery, anti-democratic (as in democracy, not the party), xenophobia and nationalism, white grievance etc. Trump is unorthodox in the party on his foreign policy - he doesn't care about continuing the American international hegemony in the same way most Republicans used to - but he certainly isn't a dove.
This engineering failure would embarrass North Korea.
This is apparently what was supposed to be a STATIC FIRE TEST today of a Tianlong-3 first stage by China's Space Pioneer. That's catastrophic, not static. Firm was targeting an orbital launch in the coming months.. https://x.com/AJ_FI/status/1807339807640518690
Impressive bang as it comes back to earth, though.
Rocket make big boom! 🚀
Did no-one realise that, for a static test fire, you’re supposed to have the rocket bolted down to the pad?
Rocket science Bolt science
Boeing involved?
You need a rocket handyman
For those who don’t know - on an early Falcon 9 flight, they found a small crack in the edge of the second stage engine bell. After some thinking, they sent this guy in. He used tape to mark off, cut the nozzle down an inch or two with tin snips and sanded and polished the new edge by hand.
Is there a next US president (NOT winner of 2024 election) market anywhere? Would give 2 bites at kamala
Just back her in the presidency after election market. If she becomes the next president, she'll be very short odds to be running for president, and at least 40% to win so you will be able to trade out for a decent profit. Could happen after Dem Nominee is sorted so the presidency market gives you till the electors cast their votes.
Incidentally, there's currently a little low pressure system forecast to whip itself across the south of Britain early on Friday, potentially creating a rain in Downing Street test on Friday morning for the new PM.
"I am assured that a new dawn has broken, even though the rain clouds above us obscure that fact."
He'll have an umbrella, won't he?
He might do. The 10m wind forecast suggests that will not be without its own peril.
Singin' in the rain with a glass 100% full (Starmer) is very different from speaking from a damp podium in the rain with hope draining from your suit and down the gutter as you talk.
Looking at the exit poll in detail, the Left vote skews young, before falling away among middle aged voters. They poll best among the middle classes (winning a plurality of middle class votes), those with postgraduate qualifications, and living in big cities. As well as among atheists.
RN is pretty consistent among all age groups, until you reach those aged 70+, where it falls away. People without degrees, and in mid-sized towns provide RN with its greatest support, in common with many right wing parties now. 50% of working class voters supported RN, compared to 26% of middle class voters, and 30% of the retired.
Ensemble leads among voters aged over 70.
Les Republicains also do best with pensioners, as you say the young vote left, the working class RN
The NYT is reporting that Biden is relying heavily for advice on his son, Hunter Biden, as Joe regards his son - the convicted villain and crack addict - as “the smartest man I know”
That’s it in a nutshell isn’t it. The democrats are saying the choice in 2024 is a country run by a convicted felon Trump, and a country run by another convicted felon, Hunter Biden, who is also a crack addict with a gun problem, but it’s ok because he’ll be working alongside Jill Biden a retired au pair, as the president himself will be juddering in a corner shouting “bomb China bomb China” and they don’t know whether to ignore him
Time for your nap?
Time for my oysters old boy. I’m in Dinard and it’s HIDEOUS
Only joking. It’s lovely. As all these towns are
I'm slumming it on Razor Clams wokked in olive oil, today
Another pretty damning argument from Bill Ackman (he’s a billionaire finance dude who does some TV punditry etc)
“keep finding articles today which say dismissively that Biden had a bad debate, but, the articles go on to say, so did Obama and others and they were able to recover and win the office.
The issue, however, was not that @POTUS Biden had a bad debate. Rather, in just a few minutes, the entire world, including all of our enemies became definitively aware, if they were not already, that the President of the United States is not fit for office, let alone a second term.
This is not just an issue of Biden’s fitness for office. It is an issue of national security.
We know from the rally the day after the debate that Biden is still capable of reading from a teleprompter. But being president of the United States requires more than reading words written by others. Leadership requires world class executive function, which in Biden’s case is clearly profoundly impaired.
If China invades Taiwan tomorrow, how comfortable do you feel with our Commander in Chief?
I would not be surprised that the DNC called for an early debate because it was concerned that Biden was deteriorating rapidly and sooner was better than later. It figured that with a friendly moderator, no @RobertKennedyJr, no audience, silenced microphones, and six days of prep at Camp David, he could make it through, or as @FLOTUS Jill Biden explained: ‘Joe you did such a great job! You answered every question!’
Some of a president’s most important decisions must come when he is awakened at 3am when disaster or a threat emerges suddenly. Our enemies will strike when we are most vulnerable.
How is this not incredibly frightening?
Now explain to me how anyone can continue to support Biden for a second term.”
I do think that one of the reasons the Dems are refusing to stop Biden rerunning is any suggestion that he is unfit for office in the future would beg the question - is he fit now? And then the issue becomes the 25th Amendment. I think it may be correct that the 25th should be invoked, but that creates its own problems...
Everyone can see the problem; Leon's posts are just waffly statements of the obvious. The problem they, and by extension we, have is the lack of a realisable plan B. Hopefully they are working on one.
I mean reasonable plan B would have been to allow a primary to happen. This conference would have been a great big Ode to Biden, congratulating him for saving American democracy from Trump in 2020 and doing an okay job as POTUS (from the view of Democrats) on policy. It would have been his swansong, and then he could have passed the torch onto a successor. The Dems refused to do that - that is part of the reason so many people are both shocked and angry, because this has been clear for so long and the party still didn't do its duty to the country and (arguably) the world.
The only thing to do now is Biden should resign and retire - Kamala becomes POTUS and Biden releases his delegates at the conference and then the conference sorts it out. That will be messy - but it will be less messy than losing to Trump. That could lead to any number of people becoming the nominee - from Newsom to (sigh) Clinton - but at the moment that seems less risky then the risk of continuing to run Biden.
Even now Biden is polling better than Kamala v Trump, Newsom is a slimy coastal liberal elitist Trump would beat easily in the rustbelt. Hillary lost the rustbelt swing states only Biden won back in 2020
The thing is that if Biden slips I don't trust he has the energy to run a campaign that could bounce back. Basically any other candidate would at least be able to be on stages and TV and do the job of persuading voters to vote for them. So I think anyone who can stand on a stage and make a clear argument why abortion rights are such a big issue, something Biden failed to do the other night!, they would be polling better than Biden.
And hypothetical polling is always difficult. I don't disagree that Trump does seem to have an edge - people have rose tinted glasses about the Trump economy and don't want to think about Covid / lockdown and so blame Biden for the impact of it. But generic democrat tends to be more popular than Trump or the GOP as a whole.
If the democrats proceed with Biden they are basically saying
1. It’s ok to lie about the most serious things in politics: like the mental state of the president
2. We think it’s ok to lie even when everyone knows we’re lying so we will do it again
3. We seriously want you to vote for a demented President because that’s more important than the security of the USA
4. We are too feeble to tell an old man to retire
5. For the next four years the country will be run by retired nanny Jill Biden and maybe her friend in the coffee shop
If the Republicans proceed with Trump they are basically saying:
1. It's OK for the president to lie about absolutely everything. 2. Who probably is actually insane. 3. Who has led an insurrection against the democratic institutions of his country. 4. Who has plausibly been in the pay of a country hostile to the United States 5. Who has a realistic possibility of being a convicted felon.
One of the problems is that the GOP do embrace that - and that the media and political class are unwilling to say it in that way. Dems and media still do the whole "we need a good strong GOP" or "this isn't your papas GOP" instead of being like "the GOP needs to be wiped off the map because it is a threat to your freedom as a woman, as a LGBTQ+ person, as an ethnic minority, etc. etc." The Dems and the media need to not treat the GOP with kid gloves, and they do.
Er, they’re doing their very best to put Donald Trump in jail, and sometimes REALLY bending the law to do so. Arguably far too much
That’s not exactly “kid gloves” is it? Or should they just assassinate him?
Bannon is about to start a 4 month prison sentence
Liz Truss "stayed silent on stage as former Trump strategist Steve Bannon described Tommy Robinson, a notorious far-right agitator well outside mainstream political discourse in Britain, as a “hero.”..."
Seats where imo the LDs need to persuade more Lab and Grn voters to vote tactically, otherwise they'll just fail to take them.
Chesham, Maidenhead, Horsham, Yeovil, East Hants, Epsom, Stratford, Kenilworth, South Shropshire, Exmouth, Chichester, Witney, Tewkesbury, Reigate, Salisbury, SW Herts, Runnymede, Montgomeryshire, Torbay, North Cotswolds.
Chesham is likely to be tight but the Tory candidate's claim of all the things he's done as a councillor means there are people who feel he should remain one and not disappear into Parliament.
I really dislike Theresa May's politics in many respects, but as a person she seems alright. I like to see former PMs who don't think that the daily grind of politics is beneath them.
One of the reasons I ended up voting for Labour in this election, was for Ed Miliband to be in charge of energy and climate in the next Cabinet. I didn't vote for his local candidate at GE 2015, but I think he has a real interest in this area of policy, and I hope good will come of his time as a Cabinet Minister.
I agree. Whilst her politics are not mine, she comes across as a decent public servant.
Agreed and genuinely pained to see the direction her Party has travelled
I also think this country would have been better off economically had they voted for her Brexit deal.
Whilst I agree about her Brexit version, she really was an awful PM and Home Secretary. She was a Twin set and Pearls version of Patel or Braverman, authoritarian in the extreme and responsible for a huge amount of misery for a lot of innocent people. I was delighted when she fell, even if far less delighted with the choice of successor.
In any traditional Conservative government, May occupies a position similar to Sunak. On the bus, but to the right of that bus.
At the moment, both of them are somewhere on the left, probably hanging on to the outside for grim life. I'm sure some people see that change as a good thing, but I struggle to ee it myself.
No one forced May to send out vans telling immigrants to go home. No one forced her to develop a culture at the Home Office that led to the Windrush scandal. This was all in the Cameron/Coalition years - held up by many to be a period of centralism at least as far as social issues are concerned - and was entirely self inflicted.
My prediction for Theresa May is that she'll spend a few years doing something like Churchwarden of her Church of England Parish (which is a surprisingly big job in a lot of cases), or other pivotal role in the local community.
Our last-but-two churchwarden was the retired Quartermaster-General to the Forces. At one point the diocese decided it wanted to amalgamate our parish with a few neighbouring ones. Lt Gen Sir Retired Quartermaster-General was not having any of it. I don't know exactly what transpired in the negotiations but let's just say we are still a single parish.
15 odd years ago I carefully ensured that the parish I was Deanery Synod rep on was kept well away from the merger plans - did take a bit of work but it's remained that way through 2 further consolidation attempts (the fact it contains over 1/3 of the towns population makes it a difficult argument to combat).
Given that Church attendances are falling, as are the numbers describing themselves as CofE, and consequently costs per parishioner are riser, was that really in the best interests of the organisation?
And Good Morning everyone.
Another manifestation of the same problem we have with government in the West right now.
We're used to certain things happening- in this case, a vicar in every parish- and haven't enquired too much into what made those things happen. Not enough people are offering themselves for ordination and not enough people are putting enough in the plate (or tax efficient standing orders, please!) to pay the bills.
And it's much easier to say that They Should Keep Things How They Have Been than to acknowledge that that depended on circumstances that are no longer sustainable and that now is when we all have to collectively pay our way. Much easier to pretend that the problem could be solved by cutting diversity officers archdeacons.
See also France- how much of the failure of Macron is because people like the idea of cutting taxes and lowering the pension age?
In France at least the state funds the maintenance and repair of their historic churches and cathedrals. We have 4 parish churches in our rural benefice which is about the maximum viable, alternating services over the month between them.
In the C of E it is rare that one church alone has a big enough congregation to be self sustaining alone, although a few evangelical churches in the bigger cities and towns manage it. Cathedrals also still get reasonable attendance and tourist income too
Interesting Lib Dem Voice piece from last week about placards being stolen.
One of the comments:
I’ve had 6 signs removed, so far from my front garden, the last two actually screwed to the stakes were ripped off, which must have taken quite some effort, the stakes remain being rather large to carry away!
The most important one facing the main road remains, it’s out of arm’s reach.
Across our constituency Romsey and Southampton North we have had 50-100 removed, often the same sites repeatedly, at quite a cost! I guess they are touching a raw nerve with our opponents.
Seats where imo the LDs need to persuade more Lab and Grn voters to vote tactically, otherwise they'll just fail to take them.
Chesham, Maidenhead, Horsham, Yeovil, East Hants, Epsom, Stratford, Kenilworth, South Shropshire, Exmouth, Chichester, Witney, Tewkesbury, Reigate, Salisbury, SW Herts, Runnymede, Montgomeryshire, Torbay, North Cotswolds.
Add Tunbridge Wells, Wokingham, Chelmsford, Surrey Heath and Windsor too
There is something of a difference between seats where there is real potential for confusion over who the best tactical choice is, and those where there isn't.
It's certain the Lib Dems will miss out on some seats by less than the combined Labour/Green vote. But if they do so in Surrey Heath, it probably won't be because a lot of those voters weren't aware of who best to vote for to beat the Tories in their area. They'll just not have cared enough to shift their vote from their preferred choice to one which might unseat the blues - they just want to keep the red flag flying. Whereas in Exmouth, for example, it may genuinely be unclear to an anti-Tory voter what to do.
I'm going to stick my neck out and predict a single red wall hold out for the Tories - I think Clarke will hold on with no Reform in Middlesborough South and East Cleveland. 3/1 with bet365
If the democrats proceed with Biden they are basically saying
1. It’s ok to lie about the most serious things in politics: like the mental state of the president
2. We think it’s ok to lie even when everyone knows we’re lying so we will do it again
3. We seriously want you to vote for a demented President because that’s more important than the security of the USA
4. We are too feeble to tell an old man to retire
5. For the next four years the country will be run by retired nanny Jill Biden and maybe her friend in the coffee shop
If the Republicans proceed with Trump they are basically saying:
1. It's OK for the president to lie about absolutely everything. 2. Who probably is actually insane. 3. Who has led an insurrection against the democratic institutions of his country. 4. Who has plausibly been in the pay of a country hostile to the United States 5. Who has a realistic possibility of being a convicted felon.
Yes. But @Leon makes an important point that the seriousness of the above is diluted by the Democrats running Biden. The Democrats need to be able to talk of the danger of Trump’s unsuitability for office without worrying about the unsuitability of their own candidate.
As I argued in 2020 (though I'm still impatiently waiting for Leon to produce the 'dozens' of posts by me that contradict this), Biden was a crap candidate because: Trump is too old - why negate that advantage by picking someone even older? Trump has a massive nepotism problem - why negate that advantage by picking a candidate whose son was blatantly influence peddling? Trump rambles incoherently - why negate that advantage by picking someone who also has problems putting a meaningful sentence together? Trump is a sleazeball with a ton of accusations against him of sexually inappropriate or worse behaviour - why negate that advantage by picking a candidate with allegations against him?
I don't remember ever offering an opinion on whether Biden (or Trump for that matter) has dementia or not, though @Leon says he's found dozens by me, so I must have done, because Leon would never make shit up. So maybe I have dementia?
I have also consistently questioned the idea that Biden was a great candidate because he was especially popular in states Dems needed to win like Pennsylvania, because the facts don't seem back this up.
Of course given the choice between Biden and Trump, I would pick Biden every time without a moment's hesitation.
This engineering failure would embarrass North Korea.
This is apparently what was supposed to be a STATIC FIRE TEST today of a Tianlong-3 first stage by China's Space Pioneer. That's catastrophic, not static. Firm was targeting an orbital launch in the coming months.. https://x.com/AJ_FI/status/1807339807640518690
Impressive bang as it comes back to earth, though.
Rocket make big boom! 🚀
Did no-one realise that, for a static test fire, you’re supposed to have the rocket bolted down to the pad?
Rocket science Bolt science
It’s difficult not to picture some poor mechanic sitting at his desk, looking at a bag of very large bolts, and thinking “Oh s!@#”.
I was picturing all the new trousers required by the team observing the launch. If it’s not meant to go anywhere, then it might literally go ANYWHERE. As noted above, that doesn’t look like it was aborted to me…
Another pretty damning argument from Bill Ackman (he’s a billionaire finance dude who does some TV punditry etc)
“keep finding articles today which say dismissively that Biden had a bad debate, but, the articles go on to say, so did Obama and others and they were able to recover and win the office.
The issue, however, was not that @POTUS Biden had a bad debate. Rather, in just a few minutes, the entire world, including all of our enemies became definitively aware, if they were not already, that the President of the United States is not fit for office, let alone a second term.
This is not just an issue of Biden’s fitness for office. It is an issue of national security.
We know from the rally the day after the debate that Biden is still capable of reading from a teleprompter. But being president of the United States requires more than reading words written by others. Leadership requires world class executive function, which in Biden’s case is clearly profoundly impaired.
If China invades Taiwan tomorrow, how comfortable do you feel with our Commander in Chief?
I would not be surprised that the DNC called for an early debate because it was concerned that Biden was deteriorating rapidly and sooner was better than later. It figured that with a friendly moderator, no @RobertKennedyJr, no audience, silenced microphones, and six days of prep at Camp David, he could make it through, or as @FLOTUS Jill Biden explained: ‘Joe you did such a great job! You answered every question!’
Some of a president’s most important decisions must come when he is awakened at 3am when disaster or a threat emerges suddenly. Our enemies will strike when we are most vulnerable.
How is this not incredibly frightening?
Now explain to me how anyone can continue to support Biden for a second term.”
I do think that one of the reasons the Dems are refusing to stop Biden rerunning is any suggestion that he is unfit for office in the future would beg the question - is he fit now? And then the issue becomes the 25th Amendment. I think it may be correct that the 25th should be invoked, but that creates its own problems...
Everyone can see the problem; Leon's posts are just waffly statements of the obvious. The problem they, and by extension we, have is the lack of a realisable plan B. Hopefully they are working on one.
I mean reasonable plan B would have been to allow a primary to happen. This conference would have been a great big Ode to Biden, congratulating him for saving American democracy from Trump in 2020 and doing an okay job as POTUS (from the view of Democrats) on policy. It would have been his swansong, and then he could have passed the torch onto a successor. The Dems refused to do that - that is part of the reason so many people are both shocked and angry, because this has been clear for so long and the party still didn't do its duty to the country and (arguably) the world.
The only thing to do now is Biden should resign and retire - Kamala becomes POTUS and Biden releases his delegates at the conference and then the conference sorts it out. That will be messy - but it will be less messy than losing to Trump. That could lead to any number of people becoming the nominee - from Newsom to (sigh) Clinton - but at the moment that seems less risky then the risk of continuing to run Biden.
Even now Biden is polling better than Kamala v Trump, Newsom is a slimy coastal liberal elitist Trump would beat easily in the rustbelt. Hillary lost the rustbelt swing states only Biden won back in 2020
The thing is that if Biden slips I don't trust he has the energy to run a campaign that could bounce back. Basically any other candidate would at least be able to be on stages and TV and do the job of persuading voters to vote for them. So I think anyone who can stand on a stage and make a clear argument why abortion rights are such a big issue, something Biden failed to do the other night!, they would be polling better than Biden.
And hypothetical polling is always difficult. I don't disagree that Trump does seem to have an edge - people have rose tinted glasses about the Trump economy and don't want to think about Covid / lockdown and so blame Biden for the impact of it. But generic democrat tends to be more popular than Trump or the GOP as a whole.
The rustbelt swing states won't be won on abortion rights, pro choice voters for whom that is a top issue will be voting Dem regardless.
They will be won by bluecollar voters concerned about manufacturing jobs who voted for Trump in 2016 but Biden in 2020 and suburban independents
Incidentally, there's currently a little low pressure system forecast to whip itself across the south of Britain early on Friday, potentially creating a rain in Downing Street test on Friday morning for the new PM.
"I am assured that a new dawn has broken, even though the rain clouds above us obscure that fact."
He'll have an umbrella, won't he?
He might do. The 10m wind forecast suggests that will not be without its own peril.
Singin' in the rain with a glass 100% full (Starmer) is very different from speaking from a damp podium in the rain with hope draining from your suit and down the gutter as you talk.
The saving grace for Sunak's rain-soaked performance was that the electorate only had 43 days to wait until voting against him. Suppose that turns out to be the only difference?
The NYT is reporting that Biden is relying heavily for advice on his son, Hunter Biden, as Joe regards his son - the convicted villain and crack addict - as “the smartest man I know”
That’s it in a nutshell isn’t it. The democrats are saying the choice in 2024 is a country run by a convicted felon Trump, and a country run by another convicted felon, Hunter Biden, who is also a crack addict with a gun problem, but it’s ok because he’ll be working alongside Jill Biden a retired au pair, as the president himself will be juddering in a corner shouting “bomb China bomb China” and they don’t know whether to ignore him
Time for your nap?
Time for my oysters old boy. I’m in Dinard and it’s HIDEOUS
Only joking. It’s lovely. As all these towns are
I'm slumming it on Razor Clams wokked in olive oil, today
I’m doing what I promised myself. A dozen cancales with Chablis in dinard. It’s a reward for all the work I’ve done with week haring around Brittany’s islands
The oysters are excellent, just a couple of notches below those in ushant, but great
What a trip. I can absolutely recommend a road trip around four or five different Breton islands. They are all brilliantly different: from the opulence of belle ile to the the Neolithic of gavrinnis, from the celtic Enid Blyton of Ouessant to the end of the world noominess of ile de sein. Superbe
Another pretty damning argument from Bill Ackman (he’s a billionaire finance dude who does some TV punditry etc)
“keep finding articles today which say dismissively that Biden had a bad debate, but, the articles go on to say, so did Obama and others and they were able to recover and win the office.
The issue, however, was not that @POTUS Biden had a bad debate. Rather, in just a few minutes, the entire world, including all of our enemies became definitively aware, if they were not already, that the President of the United States is not fit for office, let alone a second term.
This is not just an issue of Biden’s fitness for office. It is an issue of national security.
We know from the rally the day after the debate that Biden is still capable of reading from a teleprompter. But being president of the United States requires more than reading words written by others. Leadership requires world class executive function, which in Biden’s case is clearly profoundly impaired.
If China invades Taiwan tomorrow, how comfortable do you feel with our Commander in Chief?
I would not be surprised that the DNC called for an early debate because it was concerned that Biden was deteriorating rapidly and sooner was better than later. It figured that with a friendly moderator, no @RobertKennedyJr, no audience, silenced microphones, and six days of prep at Camp David, he could make it through, or as @FLOTUS Jill Biden explained: ‘Joe you did such a great job! You answered every question!’
Some of a president’s most important decisions must come when he is awakened at 3am when disaster or a threat emerges suddenly. Our enemies will strike when we are most vulnerable.
How is this not incredibly frightening?
Now explain to me how anyone can continue to support Biden for a second term.”
I do think that one of the reasons the Dems are refusing to stop Biden rerunning is any suggestion that he is unfit for office in the future would beg the question - is he fit now? And then the issue becomes the 25th Amendment. I think it may be correct that the 25th should be invoked, but that creates its own problems...
Everyone can see the problem; Leon's posts are just waffly statements of the obvious. The problem they, and by extension we, have is the lack of a realisable plan B. Hopefully they are working on one.
I mean reasonable plan B would have been to allow a primary to happen. This conference would have been a great big Ode to Biden, congratulating him for saving American democracy from Trump in 2020 and doing an okay job as POTUS (from the view of Democrats) on policy. It would have been his swansong, and then he could have passed the torch onto a successor. The Dems refused to do that - that is part of the reason so many people are both shocked and angry, because this has been clear for so long and the party still didn't do its duty to the country and (arguably) the world.
The only thing to do now is Biden should resign and retire - Kamala becomes POTUS and Biden releases his delegates at the conference and then the conference sorts it out. That will be messy - but it will be less messy than losing to Trump. That could lead to any number of people becoming the nominee - from Newsom to (sigh) Clinton - but at the moment that seems less risky then the risk of continuing to run Biden.
Even now Biden is polling better than Kamala v Trump, Newsom is a slimy coastal liberal elitist Trump would beat easily in the rustbelt. Hillary lost the rustbelt swing states only Biden won back in 2020
The thing is that if Biden slips I don't trust he has the energy to run a campaign that could bounce back. Basically any other candidate would at least be able to be on stages and TV and do the job of persuading voters to vote for them. So I think anyone who can stand on a stage and make a clear argument why abortion rights are such a big issue, something Biden failed to do the other night!, they would be polling better than Biden.
And hypothetical polling is always difficult. I don't disagree that Trump does seem to have an edge - people have rose tinted glasses about the Trump economy and don't want to think about Covid / lockdown and so blame Biden for the impact of it. But generic democrat tends to be more popular than Trump or the GOP as a whole.
The rustbelt swing states won't be won on abortion rights, pro choice voters for whom that is a top issue will be voting Dem regardless.
They will be won by bluecollar voters concerned about manufacturing jobs who voted for Trump in 2016 but Biden in 2020 and suburban independents
If they vote only on their record on manufacturing jobs then Biden is home free and with room to spare. Unfortunately they will not
If the democrats proceed with Biden they are basically saying
1. It’s ok to lie about the most serious things in politics: like the mental state of the president
2. We think it’s ok to lie even when everyone knows we’re lying so we will do it again
3. We seriously want you to vote for a demented President because that’s more important than the security of the USA
4. We are too feeble to tell an old man to retire
5. For the next four years the country will be run by retired nanny Jill Biden and maybe her friend in the coffee shop
If the Republicans proceed with Trump they are basically saying:
1. It's OK for the president to lie about absolutely everything. 2. Who probably is actually insane. 3. Who has led an insurrection against the democratic institutions of his country. 4. Who has plausibly been in the pay of a country hostile to the United States 5. Who has a realistic possibility of being a convicted felon.
One of the problems is that the GOP do embrace that - and that the media and political class are unwilling to say it in that way. Dems and media still do the whole "we need a good strong GOP" or "this isn't your papas GOP" instead of being like "the GOP needs to be wiped off the map because it is a threat to your freedom as a woman, as a LGBTQ+ person, as an ethnic minority, etc. etc." The Dems and the media need to not treat the GOP with kid gloves, and they do.
Er, they’re doing their very best to put Donald Trump in jail, and sometimes REALLY bending the law to do so. Arguably far too much
That’s not exactly “kid gloves” is it? Or should they just assassinate him?
Bannon is about to start a 4 month prison sentence
Liz Truss "stayed silent on stage as former Trump strategist Steve Bannon described Tommy Robinson, a notorious far-right agitator well outside mainstream political discourse in Britain, as a “hero.”..."
Not quite sure how but he does have quite the following in the US, even among relatively mainstream commentators.
Possibly as a result of differing attitudes towards court proceedings and freedom of speech, that has let him be portrayed as a martyr.
Yet most Brits with a little knowledge of US politics, would likely say that his American equivalent is David Duke of the KKK, who’s seen as totally beyond the pale over there.
I'm going to stick my neck out and predict a single red wall hold out for the Tories - I think Clarke will hold on with no Reform in Middlesborough South and East Cleveland. 3/1 with bet365
Big call, Yougov has Labour beating Clarke 53% to 37% even with no Reform. His seat was comfortably Labour in 1997
The NYT is reporting that Biden is relying heavily for advice on his son, Hunter Biden, as Joe regards his son - the convicted villain and crack addict - as “the smartest man I know”
That’s it in a nutshell isn’t it. The democrats are saying the choice in 2024 is a country run by a convicted felon Trump, and a country run by another convicted felon, Hunter Biden, who is also a crack addict with a gun problem, but it’s ok because he’ll be working alongside Jill Biden a retired au pair, as the president himself will be juddering in a corner shouting “bomb China bomb China” and they don’t know whether to ignore him
Time for your nap?
Time for my oysters old boy. I’m in Dinard and it’s HIDEOUS
Only joking. It’s lovely. As all these towns are
I'm slumming it on Razor Clams wokked in olive oil, today
I’m doing what I promised myself. A dozen cancales with Chablis in dinard. It’s a reward for all the work I’ve done with week haring around Brittany’s islands
The oysters are excellent, just a couple of notches below those in ushant, but great
What a trip. I can absolutely recommend a road trip around four or five different Breton islands. They are all brilliantly different: from the opulence of belle ile to the the Neolithic of gavrinnis, from the celtic Enid Blyton of Ouessant to the end of the world noominess of ile de sein. Superbe
I had my first oyster in Dinard in 1987.
I'd like to report it was the start of a lifelong enthusiasm. I quite like the idea of oysters. But sadly not: not really for me.
I think my campaigning is done for 2024. Positive Covid test this morning....
How are you feeling? Horrible or isolating to protect others?
Would be interested in your feedback from your area. It is usually spot on (damn it!).
Nasty headache and feel like I've been trampled by a herd of elephants. But can't inflict this on others, so keeping away. Rather guilty letting the team down as they continue to chase down the last votes. On national trends the Conservatives should lose to the LibDems, but Anthony was highly regarded as a constituency MP, so there is hope. Plus, 40% of the voters are in Brixham where his stock is especially high (and we have heard from sources that the LibDems are not doing very well there). There was no UKIP presence last time, however, which makes it harder to know how many will peel off to Reform. Haven't been finding many admitting to making the journey, but then how many will?
If he loses by thousands, such is life. The voters will have spoken...the bastards. If he loses by a handful, I shall feel personally responsible. I expect there will be a significant number of Tories hanging on with tiny majorities. I will take South Devon as being one!
This* is a dangerous myth for Conservatives to believe.
When Johnson announced his resignation in July 2022 the Tories had made huge losses and were on course to win only 211 seats in a general election, which would have been the fifth heaviest defeat in their 190 year history. https://x.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1807710509782782326
*On the day Boris was removed from office we were between 2-4 p behind in the polls.
The most effective part of the campaign so far has been Boris columns in the @DailyMailUK and the letters he’s written and videos he’s made for candidates.
This mess is 100pc owned by Sunak and those of you who advocated for BJ to be removed and replaced with Sunak.
I'm going to stick my neck out and predict a single red wall hold out for the Tories - I think Clarke will hold on with no Reform in Middlesborough South and East Cleveland. 3/1 with bet365
Big call, Yougov has Labour beating Clarke 57% to 37% even with no Reform. His seat was comfortably Labour in 1997
This engineering failure would embarrass North Korea.
This is apparently what was supposed to be a STATIC FIRE TEST today of a Tianlong-3 first stage by China's Space Pioneer. That's catastrophic, not static. Firm was targeting an orbital launch in the coming months.. https://x.com/AJ_FI/status/1807339807640518690
Impressive bang as it comes back to earth, though.
Rocket make big boom! 🚀
Did no-one realise that, for a static test fire, you’re supposed to have the rocket bolted down to the pad?
Rocket science Bolt science
It’s difficult not to picture some poor mechanic sitting at his desk, looking at a bag of very large bolts, and thinking “Oh s!@#”.
A few years back, there was some fun in the satellite industry with bolts.
To work on a satellite - multi ton object after all - it is standard to bolt it to a turntable. Despite these not being flight equipment, the more-is-better attitude took hold and these are often aerospace grade bolts. Several hundred dollars a piece.
So, of course, there weren’t enough. So a team working on one satellite borrowed the set being used on another satellite. They forgot to leave a message.
So a technician went into work, rotated the satellite. And it fell off the turntable. All x millions of dollars of it…
Still time left this week to jump a shark on waterskis
As long as Davey doesn't do a Vicar of Bray and end up lunch for a circus lion
Vicar of Stiffkey IIRC
Rector of Stiffey, but yes indeed.
The Vicar of Bray is a reference to a very longstanding late 17th century incumbent who ratted, re-ratted, re-re-ratted, and re-re-re-ratted between Anglican and Protestant to suit the whims of the head of state. He is said to have commented towards the end, although it's probably apocryphal, "I have remained true to my principles, which are to live and die as the Vicar of Bray". Although in a way that bouncing about is an apt analogy for Davey's bungee jump too.
I really dislike Theresa May's politics in many respects, but as a person she seems alright. I like to see former PMs who don't think that the daily grind of politics is beneath them.
One of the reasons I ended up voting for Labour in this election, was for Ed Miliband to be in charge of energy and climate in the next Cabinet. I didn't vote for his local candidate at GE 2015, but I think he has a real interest in this area of policy, and I hope good will come of his time as a Cabinet Minister.
I agree. Whilst her politics are not mine, she comes across as a decent public servant.
Agreed and genuinely pained to see the direction her Party has travelled
I also think this country would have been better off economically had they voted for her Brexit deal.
Whilst I agree about her Brexit version, she really was an awful PM and Home Secretary. She was a Twin set and Pearls version of Patel or Braverman, authoritarian in the extreme and responsible for a huge amount of misery for a lot of innocent people. I was delighted when she fell, even if far less delighted with the choice of successor.
In any traditional Conservative government, May occupies a position similar to Sunak. On the bus, but to the right of that bus.
At the moment, both of them are somewhere on the left, probably hanging on to the outside for grim life. I'm sure some people see that change as a good thing, but I struggle to ee it myself.
No one forced May to send out vans telling immigrants to go home. No one forced her to develop a culture at the Home Office that led to the Windrush scandal. This was all in the Cameron/Coalition years - held up by many to be a period of centralism at least as far as social issues are concerned - and was entirely self inflicted.
My prediction for Theresa May is that she'll spend a few years doing something like Churchwarden of her Church of England Parish (which is a surprisingly big job in a lot of cases), or other pivotal role in the local community.
Our last-but-two churchwarden was the retired Quartermaster-General to the Forces. At one point the diocese decided it wanted to amalgamate our parish with a few neighbouring ones. Lt Gen Sir Retired Quartermaster-General was not having any of it. I don't know exactly what transpired in the negotiations but let's just say we are still a single parish.
15 odd years ago I carefully ensured that the parish I was Deanery Synod rep on was kept well away from the merger plans - did take a bit of work but it's remained that way through 2 further consolidation attempts (the fact it contains over 1/3 of the towns population makes it a difficult argument to combat).
Given that Church attendances are falling, as are the numbers describing themselves as CofE, and consequently costs per parishioner are riser, was that really in the best interests of the organisation?
And Good Morning everyone.
Another manifestation of the same problem we have with government in the West right now.
We're used to certain things happening- in this case, a vicar in every parish- and haven't enquired too much into what made those things happen. Not enough people are offering themselves for ordination and not enough people are putting enough in the plate (or tax efficient standing orders, please!) to pay the bills.
And it's much easier to say that They Should Keep Things How They Have Been than to acknowledge that that depended on circumstances that are no longer sustainable and that now is when we all have to collectively pay our way. Much easier to pretend that the problem could be solved by cutting diversity officers archdeacons.
See also France- how much of the failure of Macron is because people like the idea of cutting taxes and lowering the pension age?
In France at least the state funds the maintenance and repair of their historic churches and cathedrals. We have 4 parish churches in our rural benefice which is about the maximum viable, alternating services over the month between them.
In the C of E it is rare that one church alone has a big enough congregation to be self sustaining alone, although a few evangelical churches in the bigger cities and towns manage it. Cathedrals also still get reasonable attendance and tourist income too
The question is the provision of a National Church.
If there was no NHS, the richest areas and people would do fine with a mixture of payment and insurance. The poorer people and areas would suffer. Harley Street would flourish.
In parvo, the CoE is just the same. If left alone, the prosperous will do fine. The neglected, poor, deprived will wither.
The question is what we want. Whether the CoE is Waitrose - it's there for the prosperous - or the NHS (in theory) - it's a national service for all.
But at the moment we expect 11 old ladies and a dog to fund a national service, and raise a million to mend the roof. That can't survive, and the old ladies are getting older.
If the democrats proceed with Biden they are basically saying
1. It’s ok to lie about the most serious things in politics: like the mental state of the president
2. We think it’s ok to lie even when everyone knows we’re lying so we will do it again
3. We seriously want you to vote for a demented President because that’s more important than the security of the USA
4. We are too feeble to tell an old man to retire
5. For the next four years the country will be run by retired nanny Jill Biden and maybe her friend in the coffee shop
If the Republicans proceed with Trump they are basically saying:
1. It's OK for the president to lie about absolutely everything. 2. Who probably is actually insane. 3. Who has led an insurrection against the democratic institutions of his country. 4. Who has plausibly been in the pay of a country hostile to the United States 5. Who has a realistic possibility of being a convicted felon.
Yes. But @Leon makes an important point that the seriousness of the above is diluted by the Democrats running Biden. The Democrats need to be able to talk of the danger of Trump’s unsuitability for office without worrying about the unsuitability of their own candidate.
As I argued in 2020 (though I'm still impatiently waiting for Leon to produce the 'dozens' of posts by me that contradict this), Biden was a crap candidate because: Trump is too old - why negate that advantage by picking someone even older? Trump has a massive nepotism problem - why negate that advantage by picking a candidate whose son was blatantly influence peddling? Trump rambles incoherently - why negate that advantage by picking someone who also has problems putting a meaningful sentence together? Trump is a sleazeball with a ton of accusations against him of sexually inappropriate or worse behaviour - why negate that advantage by picking a candidate with allegations against him?
I don't remember ever offering an opinion on whether Biden (or Trump for that matter) has dementia or not, though @Leon says he's found dozens by me, so I must have done, because Leon would never make shit up. So maybe I have dementia?
I have also consistently questioned the idea that Biden was a great candidate because he was especially popular in states Dems needed to win like Pennsylvania, because the facts don't seem back this up.
Of course given the choice between Biden and Trump, I would pick Biden every time without a moment's hesitation.
Would you pick Biden even with dementia? Knowing that the Dems have covered that up? And that China could pounce on this weakened lunatic of a leader?
At that point, Trump is arguably less of a risk to America’s security and democracy
@IainDale Rumours persist that David Lammy won't be Foreign Secretary. Douglas Alexander is the name being mentioned most, with David Miliband also a possibility. There is a third option that I haven't seen anyone put forward.
@IainDale Rumours persist that David Lammy won't be Foreign Secretary. Douglas Alexander is the name being mentioned most, with David Miliband also a possibility. There is a third option that I haven't seen anyone put forward.
@IainDale Rumours persist that David Lammy won't be Foreign Secretary. Douglas Alexander is the name being mentioned most, with David Miliband also a possibility. There is a third option that I haven't seen anyone put forward.
Still time left this week to jump a shark on waterskis
As long as Davey doesn't do a Vicar of Bray and end up lunch for a circus lion
Vicar of Stiffkey IIRC
Rector of Stiffey, but yes indeed.
The Vicar of Bray is a reference to a very longstanding late 17th century incumbent who ratted, re-ratted, re-re-ratted, and re-re-re-ratted between Anglican and Protestant to suit the whims of the head of state. He is said to have commented towards the end, although it's probably apocryphal, "I have remained true to my principles, which are to live and die as the Vicar of Bray". Although in a way that bouncing about is an apt analogy for Davey's bungee jump too.
And this is law,5 I will maintain Unto my Dying Day, Sir. That whatsoever King may reign, I will be the Vicar of Bray, Sir!
Phew about Davey. I laid him jumping out of an aeroplane at 50/1. I suppose he still has time.
Interesting Lib Dem Voice piece from last week about placards being stolen.
One of the comments:
I’ve had 6 signs removed, so far from my front garden, the last two actually screwed to the stakes were ripped off, which must have taken quite some effort, the stakes remain being rather large to carry away!
The most important one facing the main road remains, it’s out of arm’s reach.
Across our constituency Romsey and Southampton North we have had 50-100 removed, often the same sites repeatedly, at quite a cost! I guess they are touching a raw nerve with our opponents.
If the democrats proceed with Biden they are basically saying
1. It’s ok to lie about the most serious things in politics: like the mental state of the president
2. We think it’s ok to lie even when everyone knows we’re lying so we will do it again
3. We seriously want you to vote for a demented President because that’s more important than the security of the USA
4. We are too feeble to tell an old man to retire
5. For the next four years the country will be run by retired nanny Jill Biden and maybe her friend in the coffee shop
If the Republicans proceed with Trump they are basically saying:
1. It's OK for the president to lie about absolutely everything. 2. Who probably is actually insane. 3. Who has led an insurrection against the democratic institutions of his country. 4. Who has plausibly been in the pay of a country hostile to the United States 5. Who has a realistic possibility of being a convicted felon.
Yes. But @Leon makes an important point that the seriousness of the above is diluted by the Democrats running Biden. The Democrats need to be able to talk of the danger of Trump’s unsuitability for office without worrying about the unsuitability of their own candidate.
As I argued in 2020 (though I'm still impatiently waiting for Leon to produce the 'dozens' of posts by me that contradict this), Biden was a crap candidate because: Trump is too old - why negate that advantage by picking someone even older? Trump has a massive nepotism problem - why negate that advantage by picking a candidate whose son was blatantly influence peddling? Trump rambles incoherently - why negate that advantage by picking someone who also has problems putting a meaningful sentence together? Trump is a sleazeball with a ton of accusations against him of sexually inappropriate or worse behaviour - why negate that advantage by picking a candidate with allegations against him?
I don't remember ever offering an opinion on whether Biden (or Trump for that matter) has dementia or not, though @Leon says he's found dozens by me, so I must have done, because Leon would never make shit up. So maybe I have dementia?
I have also consistently questioned the idea that Biden was a great candidate because he was especially popular in states Dems needed to win like Pennsylvania, because the facts don't seem back this up.
Of course given the choice between Biden and Trump, I would pick Biden every time without a moment's hesitation.
Would you pick Biden even with dementia? Knowing that the Dems have covered that up? And that China could pounce on this weakened lunatic of a leader?
At that point, Trump is arguably less of a risk to America’s security and democracy
Would Trump defend Taiwan? He is more interested in a trade war with China than military conflict. Trump has also threatened to cut weapons sent to Ukraine
If the democrats proceed with Biden they are basically saying
1. It’s ok to lie about the most serious things in politics: like the mental state of the president
2. We think it’s ok to lie even when everyone knows we’re lying so we will do it again
3. We seriously want you to vote for a demented President because that’s more important than the security of the USA
4. We are too feeble to tell an old man to retire
5. For the next four years the country will be run by retired nanny Jill Biden and maybe her friend in the coffee shop
If the Republicans proceed with Trump they are basically saying:
1. It's OK for the president to lie about absolutely everything. 2. Who probably is actually insane. 3. Who has led an insurrection against the democratic institutions of his country. 4. Who has plausibly been in the pay of a country hostile to the United States 5. Who has a realistic possibility of being a convicted felon.
Yes. But @Leon makes an important point that the seriousness of the above is diluted by the Democrats running Biden. The Democrats need to be able to talk of the danger of Trump’s unsuitability for office without worrying about the unsuitability of their own candidate.
As I argued in 2020 (though I'm still impatiently waiting for Leon to produce the 'dozens' of posts by me that contradict this), Biden was a crap candidate because: Trump is too old - why negate that advantage by picking someone even older? Trump has a massive nepotism problem - why negate that advantage by picking a candidate whose son was blatantly influence peddling? Trump rambles incoherently - why negate that advantage by picking someone who also has problems putting a meaningful sentence together? Trump is a sleazeball with a ton of accusations against him of sexually inappropriate or worse behaviour - why negate that advantage by picking a candidate with allegations against him?
I don't remember ever offering an opinion on whether Biden (or Trump for that matter) has dementia or not, though @Leon says he's found dozens by me, so I must have done, because Leon would never make shit up. So maybe I have dementia?
I have also consistently questioned the idea that Biden was a great candidate because he was especially popular in states Dems needed to win like Pennsylvania, because the facts don't seem back this up.
Of course given the choice between Biden and Trump, I would pick Biden every time without a moment's hesitation.
Would you pick Biden even with dementia? Knowing that the Dems have covered that up? And that China could pounce on this weakened lunatic of a leader?
At that point, Trump is arguably less of a risk to America’s security and democracy
Should Biden win, which he wont now imho, the whole of the term is going to be completely bogged down with 'when will he step down/become too ill to continue' and 'when will Harris take over'. It's f-ing madness to prolong this now.
@IainDale Rumours persist that David Lammy won't be Foreign Secretary. Douglas Alexander is the name being mentioned most, with David Miliband also a possibility. There is a third option that I haven't seen anyone put forward.
I'm going to stick my neck out and predict a single red wall hold out for the Tories - I think Clarke will hold on with no Reform in Middlesborough South and East Cleveland. 3/1 with bet365
Big call, Yougov has Labour beating Clarke 57% to 37% even with no Reform. His seat was comfortably Labour in 1997
I know, but I fancy some residual Houchen effect somewhere. Plus he's a more attractive option for Reformers than many Tories
Houchen got a personal vote and it was a local election, Thursday isn't. Middlesborough S and East Cleveland was Labour from 1997 to 2017, on current polls Clarke doesn't have a hope even without Reform
I really dislike Theresa May's politics in many respects, but as a person she seems alright. I like to see former PMs who don't think that the daily grind of politics is beneath them.
One of the reasons I ended up voting for Labour in this election, was for Ed Miliband to be in charge of energy and climate in the next Cabinet. I didn't vote for his local candidate at GE 2015, but I think he has a real interest in this area of policy, and I hope good will come of his time as a Cabinet Minister.
I agree. Whilst her politics are not mine, she comes across as a decent public servant.
A mixed bag. She campaigned against institutionalised racism, and for GRC Reform, but was also behind the "Hostile Environment" and Windrush scandal.
Better than most recent Tory Prime Ministers isn't a very high bar.
She was the worst. Her “red line” speech - entirely unwanted - made sure Brexit would be hideously painful and costly
Nah, your hero Farage did that - along with the other Europhobes - when they did not set what Brexit meant for the referendum. A central lie that led to this mess.
As ever with you, it's someone else's fault.
Believe it or not I partly agree with you here
A failure to define Brexit before the referendum WAS a fundamental error, but the responsibility lies not with Farage - he’s a blustering populist who was never in charge and therefore decided nothing. PM Cameron should have imposed this stipulation
The whole vote was a shambolic disgrace. We should have had a formal national discussion about what Brexit might mean on both sides. We should have had a two stage vote. Remain or Leave, then, if Leave - what kind
Cameron fucked the whole thing, just as he fucked the “renegotiations” and then lost the vote with his ineptitude. Quite why @TSE worships him escapes me. A mediocrity
There's zero way Cameron could have defined what Brexit meant. And if he had, then Farage and the Europhobes within the party would have railed against it, whatever it was. He could only give his side of the argument.
I LOL at you calling Cameron inept. I mean, the Europhobes have hardly shone, have they? A bunch of nasty incompetent fuckwits.
You really have become a bitter and twisted sad old man these days JJ. It's a shame as you used to be reasonably sensible.
???
Given what the Europhobes have done to the country and democracy in the country, a little anger is in order.
But bitter and twisted? Nah. That's projection.
Everyone on PB is Twitter and Bisted. Its what we do, we just do it in different places
In other news, this was St Malo last night
(Snip)
Here's a question for PBers: I attended a party a few weeks ago. I bet some of you can guess what this photo is of, and might even work out exactly where I was standing when I took it...
Ely cathedral
Yep. Now can anyone guess where it was taken from? It is a place historic republicans might like. But not the Irish...
This* is a dangerous myth for Conservatives to believe.
When Johnson announced his resignation in July 2022 the Tories had made huge losses and were on course to win only 211 seats in a general election, which would have been the fifth heaviest defeat in their 190 year history. https://x.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1807710509782782326
*On the day Boris was removed from office we were between 2-4 p behind in the polls.
The most effective part of the campaign so far has been Boris columns in the @DailyMailUK and the letters he’s written and videos he’s made for candidates.
This mess is 100pc owned by Sunak and those of you who advocated for BJ to be removed and replaced with Sunak.
Iain Dale on X raising the prospect of Mandy as FS
The FS is, at least for now, going to be Lammy. The row involved in demoting him would spread far and wide for very obvious reasons. To not demote him he would have to be HS or CoE. I don't think Yvette Cooper (a very safe pair of hands for an awful job) or Reeves are going anywhere.
@IainDale Rumours persist that David Lammy won't be Foreign Secretary. Douglas Alexander is the name being mentioned most, with David Miliband also a possibility. There is a third option that I haven't seen anyone put forward.
@IainDale Rumours persist that David Lammy won't be Foreign Secretary. Douglas Alexander is the name being mentioned most, with David Miliband also a possibility. There is a third option that I haven't seen anyone put forward.
I'm going to stick my neck out and predict a single red wall hold out for the Tories - I think Clarke will hold on with no Reform in Middlesborough South and East Cleveland. 3/1 with bet365
Big call, Yougov has Labour beating Clarke 57% to 37% even with no Reform. His seat was comfortably Labour in 1997
I know, but I fancy some residual Houchen effect somewhere. Plus he's a more attractive option for Reformers than many Tories
Houchen got a personal vote and it was a local election, Thursday isn't. Middlesborough S and East Cleveland was Labour from 1997 to 2017, on current polls Clarke doesn't have a hope even without Reform
I really dislike Theresa May's politics in many respects, but as a person she seems alright. I like to see former PMs who don't think that the daily grind of politics is beneath them.
One of the reasons I ended up voting for Labour in this election, was for Ed Miliband to be in charge of energy and climate in the next Cabinet. I didn't vote for his local candidate at GE 2015, but I think he has a real interest in this area of policy, and I hope good will come of his time as a Cabinet Minister.
I agree. Whilst her politics are not mine, she comes across as a decent public servant.
A mixed bag. She campaigned against institutionalised racism, and for GRC Reform, but was also behind the "Hostile Environment" and Windrush scandal.
Better than most recent Tory Prime Ministers isn't a very high bar.
She was the worst. Her “red line” speech - entirely unwanted - made sure Brexit would be hideously painful and costly
Nah, your hero Farage did that - along with the other Europhobes - when they did not set what Brexit meant for the referendum. A central lie that led to this mess.
As ever with you, it's someone else's fault.
Believe it or not I partly agree with you here
A failure to define Brexit before the referendum WAS a fundamental error, but the responsibility lies not with Farage - he’s a blustering populist who was never in charge and therefore decided nothing. PM Cameron should have imposed this stipulation
The whole vote was a shambolic disgrace. We should have had a formal national discussion about what Brexit might mean on both sides. We should have had a two stage vote. Remain or Leave, then, if Leave - what kind
Cameron fucked the whole thing, just as he fucked the “renegotiations” and then lost the vote with his ineptitude. Quite why @TSE worships him escapes me. A mediocrity
There's zero way Cameron could have defined what Brexit meant. And if he had, then Farage and the Europhobes within the party would have railed against it, whatever it was. He could only give his side of the argument.
I LOL at you calling Cameron inept. I mean, the Europhobes have hardly shone, have they? A bunch of nasty incompetent fuckwits.
You really have become a bitter and twisted sad old man these days JJ. It's a shame as you used to be reasonably sensible.
???
Given what the Europhobes have done to the country and democracy in the country, a little anger is in order.
But bitter and twisted? Nah. That's projection.
Everyone on PB is Twitter and Bisted. Its what we do, we just do it in different places
In other news, this was St Malo last night
(Snip)
Here's a question for PBers: I attended a party a few weeks ago. I bet some of you can guess what this photo is of, and might even work out exactly where I was standing when I took it...
Ely cathedral
Yep. Now can anyone guess where it was taken from? It is a place historic republicans might like. But not the Irish...
The NYT is reporting that Biden is relying heavily for advice on his son, Hunter Biden, as Joe regards his son - the convicted villain and crack addict - as “the smartest man I know”
That’s it in a nutshell isn’t it. The democrats are saying the choice in 2024 is a country run by a convicted felon Trump, and a country run by another convicted felon, Hunter Biden, who is also a crack addict with a gun problem, but it’s ok because he’ll be working alongside Jill Biden a retired au pair, as the president himself will be juddering in a corner shouting “bomb China bomb China” and they don’t know whether to ignore him
Time for your nap?
Time for my oysters old boy. I’m in Dinard and it’s HIDEOUS
Only joking. It’s lovely. As all these towns are
I'm slumming it on Razor Clams wokked in olive oil, today
I’m doing what I promised myself. A dozen cancales with Chablis in dinard. It’s a reward for all the work I’ve done with week haring around Brittany’s islands
The oysters are excellent, just a couple of notches below those in ushant, but great
What a trip. I can absolutely recommend a road trip around four or five different Breton islands. They are all brilliantly different: from the opulence of belle ile to the the Neolithic of gavrinnis, from the celtic Enid Blyton of Ouessant to the end of the world noominess of ile de sein. Superbe
I had my first oyster in Dinard in 1987.
I'd like to report it was the start of a lifelong enthusiasm. I quite like the idea of oysters. But sadly not: not really for me.
Oysters are very marmite. The nigel Farage of seafoods
The NYT is reporting that Biden is relying heavily for advice on his son, Hunter Biden, as Joe regards his son - the convicted villain and crack addict - as “the smartest man I know”
That’s it in a nutshell isn’t it. The democrats are saying the choice in 2024 is a country run by a convicted felon Trump, and a country run by another convicted felon, Hunter Biden, who is also a crack addict with a gun problem, but it’s ok because he’ll be working alongside Jill Biden a retired au pair, as the president himself will be juddering in a corner shouting “bomb China bomb China” and they don’t know whether to ignore him
Time for your nap?
Time for my oysters old boy. I’m in Dinard and it’s HIDEOUS
Only joking. It’s lovely. As all these towns are
I'm slumming it on Razor Clams wokked in olive oil, today
I’m doing what I promised myself. A dozen cancales with Chablis in dinard. It’s a reward for all the work I’ve done with week haring around Brittany’s islands
The oysters are excellent, just a couple of notches below those in ushant, but great
What a trip. I can absolutely recommend a road trip around four or five different Breton islands. They are all brilliantly different: from the opulence of belle ile to the the Neolithic of gavrinnis, from the celtic Enid Blyton of Ouessant to the end of the world noominess of ile de sein. Superbe
I had my first oyster in Dinard in 1987.
I'd like to report it was the start of a lifelong enthusiasm. I quite like the idea of oysters. But sadly not: not really for me.
Oysters are very marmite. The nigel Farage of seafoods
The NYT is reporting that Biden is relying heavily for advice on his son, Hunter Biden, as Joe regards his son - the convicted villain and crack addict - as “the smartest man I know”
That’s it in a nutshell isn’t it. The democrats are saying the choice in 2024 is a country run by a convicted felon Trump, and a country run by another convicted felon, Hunter Biden, who is also a crack addict with a gun problem, but it’s ok because he’ll be working alongside Jill Biden a retired au pair, as the president himself will be juddering in a corner shouting “bomb China bomb China” and they don’t know whether to ignore him
Time for your nap?
Time for my oysters old boy. I’m in Dinard and it’s HIDEOUS
Only joking. It’s lovely. As all these towns are
I'm slumming it on Razor Clams wokked in olive oil, today
I’m doing what I promised myself. A dozen cancales with Chablis in dinard. It’s a reward for all the work I’ve done with week haring around Brittany’s islands
The oysters are excellent, just a couple of notches below those in ushant, but great
What a trip. I can absolutely recommend a road trip around four or five different Breton islands. They are all brilliantly different: from the opulence of belle ile to the the Neolithic of gavrinnis, from the celtic Enid Blyton of Ouessant to the end of the world noominess of ile de sein. Superbe
I had my first oyster in Dinard in 1987.
I'd like to report it was the start of a lifelong enthusiasm. I quite like the idea of oysters. But sadly not: not really for me.
I'm really not a fan of fish. There is a particular flavour I don't like. There is quite a lot I find ok, but nothing that excites me. As a foodie I find that very frustrating. I look at it and think I really want to like it.
I'm going to stick my neck out and predict a single red wall hold out for the Tories - I think Clarke will hold on with no Reform in Middlesborough South and East Cleveland. 3/1 with bet365
Big call, Yougov has Labour beating Clarke 57% to 37% even with no Reform. His seat was comfortably Labour in 1997
I know, but I fancy some residual Houchen effect somewhere. Plus he's a more attractive option for Reformers than many Tories
Houchen got a personal vote and it was a local election, Thursday isn't. Middlesborough S and East Cleveland was Labour from 1997 to 2017, on current polls Clarke doesn't have a hope even without Reform
Noted. I'll stick with my call.
There are accusations that Labour didn't bother to campaign against Ben Houchen in the May election - you can read into that what you want but there is a fair bit of evidence that Labour wish Ben to be there for the forthcoming investigation..
Iain Dale on X raising the prospect of Mandy as FS
The FS is, at least for now, going to be Lammy. The row involved in demoting him would spread far and wide for very obvious reasons. To not demote him he would have to be HS or CoE. I don't think Yvette Cooper (a very safe pair of hands for an awful job) or Reeves are going anywhere.
I agree.
The big jobs are all going to the relevant shadows. If there’s any movement it will be at the lower cabinet ranks.
I really dislike Theresa May's politics in many respects, but as a person she seems alright. I like to see former PMs who don't think that the daily grind of politics is beneath them.
One of the reasons I ended up voting for Labour in this election, was for Ed Miliband to be in charge of energy and climate in the next Cabinet. I didn't vote for his local candidate at GE 2015, but I think he has a real interest in this area of policy, and I hope good will come of his time as a Cabinet Minister.
I agree. Whilst her politics are not mine, she comes across as a decent public servant.
Agreed and genuinely pained to see the direction her Party has travelled
I also think this country would have been better off economically had they voted for her Brexit deal.
Whilst I agree about her Brexit version, she really was an awful PM and Home Secretary. She was a Twin set and Pearls version of Patel or Braverman, authoritarian in the extreme and responsible for a huge amount of misery for a lot of innocent people. I was delighted when she fell, even if far less delighted with the choice of successor.
In any traditional Conservative government, May occupies a position similar to Sunak. On the bus, but to the right of that bus.
At the moment, both of them are somewhere on the left, probably hanging on to the outside for grim life. I'm sure some people see that change as a good thing, but I struggle to ee it myself.
No one forced May to send out vans telling immigrants to go home. No one forced her to develop a culture at the Home Office that led to the Windrush scandal. This was all in the Cameron/Coalition years - held up by many to be a period of centralism at least as far as social issues are concerned - and was entirely self inflicted.
My prediction for Theresa May is that she'll spend a few years doing something like Churchwarden of her Church of England Parish (which is a surprisingly big job in a lot of cases), or other pivotal role in the local community.
Our last-but-two churchwarden was the retired Quartermaster-General to the Forces. At one point the diocese decided it wanted to amalgamate our parish with a few neighbouring ones. Lt Gen Sir Retired Quartermaster-General was not having any of it. I don't know exactly what transpired in the negotiations but let's just say we are still a single parish.
15 odd years ago I carefully ensured that the parish I was Deanery Synod rep on was kept well away from the merger plans - did take a bit of work but it's remained that way through 2 further consolidation attempts (the fact it contains over 1/3 of the towns population makes it a difficult argument to combat).
Given that Church attendances are falling, as are the numbers describing themselves as CofE, and consequently costs per parishioner are riser, was that really in the best interests of the organisation?
And Good Morning everyone.
Another manifestation of the same problem we have with government in the West right now.
We're used to certain things happening- in this case, a vicar in every parish- and haven't enquired too much into what made those things happen. Not enough people are offering themselves for ordination and not enough people are putting enough in the plate (or tax efficient standing orders, please!) to pay the bills.
And it's much easier to say that They Should Keep Things How They Have Been than to acknowledge that that depended on circumstances that are no longer sustainable and that now is when we all have to collectively pay our way. Much easier to pretend that the problem could be solved by cutting diversity officers archdeacons.
See also France- how much of the failure of Macron is because people like the idea of cutting taxes and lowering the pension age?
In France at least the state funds the maintenance and repair of their historic churches and cathedrals. We have 4 parish churches in our rural benefice which is about the maximum viable, alternating services over the month between them.
In the C of E it is rare that one church alone has a big enough congregation to be self sustaining alone, although a few evangelical churches in the bigger cities and towns manage it. Cathedrals also still get reasonable attendance and tourist income too
The question is the provision of a National Church.
If there was no NHS, the richest areas and people would do fine with a mixture of payment and insurance. The poorer people and areas would suffer. Harley Street would flourish.
In parvo, the CoE is just the same. If left alone, the prosperous will do fine. The neglected, poor, deprived will wither.
The question is what we want. Whether the CoE is Waitrose - it's there for the prosperous - or the NHS (in theory) - it's a national service for all.
But at the moment we expect 11 old ladies and a dog to fund a national service, and raise a million to mend the roof. That can't survive, and the old ladies are getting older.
I agree, wealth home counties Parishes and prosperous dioceses with big endowments like London and Oxford will survive regardless. Cathedrals will also survive in cities with tourism and events income.
However other areas will find it much more difficult to sustain their Parish church, unless an evangelical church with a big congregation but which tend to be hardline conservative on social issues.
So yes the state should help support certainly the historic grade listed churches if needed as should things like lottery funding. The C of E could also use more of its investment proceeds and rental income to support them rather than on admin and things like church planting which rarely works
@IainDale Rumours persist that David Lammy won't be Foreign Secretary. Douglas Alexander is the name being mentioned most, with David Miliband also a possibility. There is a third option that I haven't seen anyone put forward.
If Biden is determined to stay in the race, my expectation is that all hell will break loose. If the 1968 Chicago Democratic Convention was marked by rioting (mainly by the cops) outside the hall, the 2024 Chicago Democratic Convention will be marked by riots inside the hall.
The last edition of the Economist before the election backs Labour. It also indicates the fragility of prediction. In a single short article it predicts both of these: Tories 76, and Tories 117. At the same time it refers to its recent prediction (last week!) of Tories 185.
We are three sleeps off polling day and no-one knows anything much. This is remarkable
I think John Curtice will have a tough gig on Thursday, though at the end of it we will still admire his wisdom and clarity. Expect lots of caveats at 10 pm.
I really dislike Theresa May's politics in many respects, but as a person she seems alright. I like to see former PMs who don't think that the daily grind of politics is beneath them.
One of the reasons I ended up voting for Labour in this election, was for Ed Miliband to be in charge of energy and climate in the next Cabinet. I didn't vote for his local candidate at GE 2015, but I think he has a real interest in this area of policy, and I hope good will come of his time as a Cabinet Minister.
I agree. Whilst her politics are not mine, she comes across as a decent public servant.
A mixed bag. She campaigned against institutionalised racism, and for GRC Reform, but was also behind the "Hostile Environment" and Windrush scandal.
Better than most recent Tory Prime Ministers isn't a very high bar.
She was the worst. Her “red line” speech - entirely unwanted - made sure Brexit would be hideously painful and costly
Nah, your hero Farage did that - along with the other Europhobes - when they did not set what Brexit meant for the referendum. A central lie that led to this mess.
As ever with you, it's someone else's fault.
Believe it or not I partly agree with you here
A failure to define Brexit before the referendum WAS a fundamental error, but the responsibility lies not with Farage - he’s a blustering populist who was never in charge and therefore decided nothing. PM Cameron should have imposed this stipulation
The whole vote was a shambolic disgrace. We should have had a formal national discussion about what Brexit might mean on both sides. We should have had a two stage vote. Remain or Leave, then, if Leave - what kind
Cameron fucked the whole thing, just as he fucked the “renegotiations” and then lost the vote with his ineptitude. Quite why @TSE worships him escapes me. A mediocrity
There's zero way Cameron could have defined what Brexit meant. And if he had, then Farage and the Europhobes within the party would have railed against it, whatever it was. He could only give his side of the argument.
I LOL at you calling Cameron inept. I mean, the Europhobes have hardly shone, have they? A bunch of nasty incompetent fuckwits.
You really have become a bitter and twisted sad old man these days JJ. It's a shame as you used to be reasonably sensible.
???
Given what the Europhobes have done to the country and democracy in the country, a little anger is in order.
But bitter and twisted? Nah. That's projection.
Why should I be bitter and twisted. I pretty much got what I wanted and am still delighted compared to how things would have been if we had stayed in. I spite of the efforts of teh politicians on both sides deocracy is far stronger in this country than many parts of your beloved EU. It is you who have degenerated into a sad old moaner.
Where on Earth do you get the idea that I love the EU? And that's your problem: anyone who isn't totally against the EU is, in your eyes, someone who loves the EU. There can be no middle ground.
Britain could have been a success in the EU. It could have been a failure in the EU. It could have been a success outside the EU, or a failure outside the EU.
Those were all options; sadly, we've headed towards the latter option. That's largely down to Brexit, the Brexiteers and the Europhobes. Being outside the EU meant more than what was good for the country.
@IainDale Rumours persist that David Lammy won't be Foreign Secretary. Douglas Alexander is the name being mentioned most, with David Miliband also a possibility. There is a third option that I haven't seen anyone put forward.
Another pretty damning argument from Bill Ackman (he’s a billionaire finance dude who does some TV punditry etc)
“keep finding articles today which say dismissively that Biden had a bad debate, but, the articles go on to say, so did Obama and others and they were able to recover and win the office.
The issue, however, was not that @POTUS Biden had a bad debate. Rather, in just a few minutes, the entire world, including all of our enemies became definitively aware, if they were not already, that the President of the United States is not fit for office, let alone a second term.
This is not just an issue of Biden’s fitness for office. It is an issue of national security.
We know from the rally the day after the debate that Biden is still capable of reading from a teleprompter. But being president of the United States requires more than reading words written by others. Leadership requires world class executive function, which in Biden’s case is clearly profoundly impaired.
If China invades Taiwan tomorrow, how comfortable do you feel with our Commander in Chief?
I would not be surprised that the DNC called for an early debate because it was concerned that Biden was deteriorating rapidly and sooner was better than later. It figured that with a friendly moderator, no @RobertKennedyJr, no audience, silenced microphones, and six days of prep at Camp David, he could make it through, or as @FLOTUS Jill Biden explained: ‘Joe you did such a great job! You answered every question!’
Some of a president’s most important decisions must come when he is awakened at 3am when disaster or a threat emerges suddenly. Our enemies will strike when we are most vulnerable.
How is this not incredibly frightening?
Now explain to me how anyone can continue to support Biden for a second term.”
I do think that one of the reasons the Dems are refusing to stop Biden rerunning is any suggestion that he is unfit for office in the future would beg the question - is he fit now? And then the issue becomes the 25th Amendment. I think it may be correct that the 25th should be invoked, but that creates its own problems...
Everyone can see the problem; Leon's posts are just waffly statements of the obvious. The problem they, and by extension we, have is the lack of a realisable plan B. Hopefully they are working on one.
I mean reasonable plan B would have been to allow a primary to happen. This conference would have been a great big Ode to Biden, congratulating him for saving American democracy from Trump in 2020 and doing an okay job as POTUS (from the view of Democrats) on policy. It would have been his swansong, and then he could have passed the torch onto a successor. The Dems refused to do that - that is part of the reason so many people are both shocked and angry, because this has been clear for so long and the party still didn't do its duty to the country and (arguably) the world.
The only thing to do now is Biden should resign and retire - Kamala becomes POTUS and Biden releases his delegates at the conference and then the conference sorts it out. That will be messy - but it will be less messy than losing to Trump. That could lead to any number of people becoming the nominee - from Newsom to (sigh) Clinton - but at the moment that seems less risky then the risk of continuing to run Biden.
Even now Biden is polling better than Kamala v Trump, Newsom is a slimy coastal liberal elitist Trump would beat easily in the rustbelt. Hillary lost the rustbelt swing states only Biden won back in 2020
Agreed. Abortion rights will help the Democrats, but they aren't likely to be enough to win. There are quite a lot of people who agree with the Democrats on abortion, who will vote Republican for other reasons.
The NYT is reporting that Biden is relying heavily for advice on his son, Hunter Biden, as Joe regards his son - the convicted villain and crack addict - as “the smartest man I know”
That’s it in a nutshell isn’t it. The democrats are saying the choice in 2024 is a country run by a convicted felon Trump, and a country run by another convicted felon, Hunter Biden, who is also a crack addict with a gun problem, but it’s ok because he’ll be working alongside Jill Biden a retired au pair, as the president himself will be juddering in a corner shouting “bomb China bomb China” and they don’t know whether to ignore him
Time for your nap?
Time for my oysters old boy. I’m in Dinard and it’s HIDEOUS
Only joking. It’s lovely. As all these towns are
I'm slumming it on Razor Clams wokked in olive oil, today
I’m doing what I promised myself. A dozen cancales with Chablis in dinard. It’s a reward for all the work I’ve done with week haring around Brittany’s islands
The oysters are excellent, just a couple of notches below those in ushant, but great
What a trip. I can absolutely recommend a road trip around four or five different Breton islands. They are all brilliantly different: from the opulence of belle ile to the the Neolithic of gavrinnis, from the celtic Enid Blyton of Ouessant to the end of the world noominess of ile de sein. Superbe
I had my first oyster in Dinard in 1987.
I'd like to report it was the start of a lifelong enthusiasm. I quite like the idea of oysters. But sadly not: not really for me.
I'm really not a fan of fish. There is a particular flavour I don't like. There is quite a lot I find ok, but nothing that excites me. As a foodie I find that very frustrating. I look at it and think I really want to like it.
Gosh! Poor you.
I'm far from being the most adventurous of eaters, but when I think of the variety encompassed by just mackerel, cod, salmon, trout and monkfish, and the different ways to prepare and cook them. What a loss.
this raises another key point—the gulf in opinion on such matters between party insiders, whose first reflex is always to justify the status quo, and regular, rank-and-file Democrats. I can promise you that if you asked 50 Washington insiders whether Biden should step down, and then asked 50 Democrats at the Whole Foods in Madison, you’d get strikingly different answers.
Iain Dale on X raising the prospect of Mandy as FS
Surely a very short tenure as Lab will be abolishing the HoL toot sweet.
Reform not abolish. I think some time ago (April?) I suggested HoL would be Quick, Quick, Slow, Slow, which works aspirationally and to BFONT the rump Tories:
- First months
Hereditaries OUT (I'd say totally gone by Christmas). Retirement age (maybe) 50 Labour working piers IN. A few others IN, but no Tories since they have been relatively stuffing them in for years like a Labrador and sausages, and there are hardly any Tory MPs left. Minimal Honours for Rishi 'because reform is being conisered'.
- then reconsider the thing over 12-18 months during 1st term:
Retirement age (maybe as part of transition) Longer term reform and transition. If we are going for say Elected by quarters every 4 years, then some life peers would be there for 15-18 years, which seems reasonable to me.
The last edition of the Economist before the election backs Labour. It also indicates the fragility of prediction. In a single short article it predicts both of these: Tories 76, and Tories 117. At the same time it refers to its recent prediction (last week!) of Tories 185.
We are three sleeps off polling day and no-one knows anything much. This is remarkable
I think John Curtice will have a tough gig on Thursday, though at the end of it we will still admire his wisdom and clarity. Expect lots of caveats at 10 pm.
I really dislike Theresa May's politics in many respects, but as a person she seems alright. I like to see former PMs who don't think that the daily grind of politics is beneath them.
One of the reasons I ended up voting for Labour in this election, was for Ed Miliband to be in charge of energy and climate in the next Cabinet. I didn't vote for his local candidate at GE 2015, but I think he has a real interest in this area of policy, and I hope good will come of his time as a Cabinet Minister.
I agree. Whilst her politics are not mine, she comes across as a decent public servant.
A mixed bag. She campaigned against institutionalised racism, and for GRC Reform, but was also behind the "Hostile Environment" and Windrush scandal.
Better than most recent Tory Prime Ministers isn't a very high bar.
She was the worst. Her “red line” speech - entirely unwanted - made sure Brexit would be hideously painful and costly
Nah, your hero Farage did that - along with the other Europhobes - when they did not set what Brexit meant for the referendum. A central lie that led to this mess.
As ever with you, it's someone else's fault.
Believe it or not I partly agree with you here
A failure to define Brexit before the referendum WAS a fundamental error, but the responsibility lies not with Farage - he’s a blustering populist who was never in charge and therefore decided nothing. PM Cameron should have imposed this stipulation
The whole vote was a shambolic disgrace. We should have had a formal national discussion about what Brexit might mean on both sides. We should have had a two stage vote. Remain or Leave, then, if Leave - what kind
Cameron fucked the whole thing, just as he fucked the “renegotiations” and then lost the vote with his ineptitude. Quite why @TSE worships him escapes me. A mediocrity
There's zero way Cameron could have defined what Brexit meant. And if he had, then Farage and the Europhobes within the party would have railed against it, whatever it was. He could only give his side of the argument.
I LOL at you calling Cameron inept. I mean, the Europhobes have hardly shone, have they? A bunch of nasty incompetent fuckwits.
You really have become a bitter and twisted sad old man these days JJ. It's a shame as you used to be reasonably sensible.
???
Given what the Europhobes have done to the country and democracy in the country, a little anger is in order.
But bitter and twisted? Nah. That's projection.
Why should I be bitter and twisted. I pretty much got what I wanted and am still delighted compared to how things would have been if we had stayed in. I spite of the efforts of teh politicians on both sides deocracy is far stronger in this country than many parts of your beloved EU. It is you who have degenerated into a sad old moaner.
Where on Earth do you get the idea that I love the EU? And that's your problem: anyone who isn't totally against the EU is, in your eyes, someone who loves the EU. There can be no middle ground.
Britain could have been a success in the EU. It could have been a failure in the EU. It could have been a success outside the EU, or a failure outside the EU.
Those were all options; sadly, we've headed towards the latter option. That's largely down to Brexit, the Brexiteers and the Europhobes. Being outside the EU meant more than what was good for the country.
And that's your problem: anyone who isn't totally pro the EU is, in your eyes, someone who hates es the EU. The irrefutable evidence for this is your use of the word "europhobe" in three successive posts.
The NYT is reporting that Biden is relying heavily for advice on his son, Hunter Biden, as Joe regards his son - the convicted villain and crack addict - as “the smartest man I know”
That’s it in a nutshell isn’t it. The democrats are saying the choice in 2024 is a country run by a convicted felon Trump, and a country run by another convicted felon, Hunter Biden, who is also a crack addict with a gun problem, but it’s ok because he’ll be working alongside Jill Biden a retired au pair, as the president himself will be juddering in a corner shouting “bomb China bomb China” and they don’t know whether to ignore him
Time for your nap?
Time for my oysters old boy. I’m in Dinard and it’s HIDEOUS
Only joking. It’s lovely. As all these towns are
I'm slumming it on Razor Clams wokked in olive oil, today
I’m doing what I promised myself. A dozen cancales with Chablis in dinard. It’s a reward for all the work I’ve done with week haring around Brittany’s islands
The oysters are excellent, just a couple of notches below those in ushant, but great
What a trip. I can absolutely recommend a road trip around four or five different Breton islands. They are all brilliantly different: from the opulence of belle ile to the the Neolithic of gavrinnis, from the celtic Enid Blyton of Ouessant to the end of the world noominess of ile de sein. Superbe
I had my first oyster in Dinard in 1987.
I'd like to report it was the start of a lifelong enthusiasm. I quite like the idea of oysters. But sadly not: not really for me.
I'm really not a fan of fish. There is a particular flavour I don't like. There is quite a lot I find ok, but nothing that excites me. As a foodie I find that very frustrating. I look at it and think I really want to like it.
How can you “not like fish”
That’s like saying “I’m not in favour of sex” or “I can’t abide a mountain” or “I prefer not to move my arms in the afternoon”
Comments
That’s not exactly “kid gloves” is it? Or should they just assassinate him?
In some ways, Putins actions in Chechnya were far worse than his actions in Ukraine.
He IS a convicted felon.
No 'realistic possibility' about it.
If Trump returns to power in November after being defeated in 2020 and if a Starmer government proves unpopular and the Tory Leader of the Opposition a dud he might though consider it. He would want to be begged by Tory MPs first though. He would also need a safe seat to be vacated by a Tory MP to make it possible in a by election, that is unlikely to be his former seats of Henley, likely to go LD on Thursday, or Uxbridge, likely to go Labour
https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2022/02/europe/russia-ukraine-crisis-poll-intl/index.html?cid=ios_app
Which is why Putin didn’t call for referenda - they would have produced the wrong result.
A big chunk of this was the actions of the “governments” setup in areas taken over by separatists in 2014. Described by those who saw them as worse than Yelstin era theft-as-government.
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/07/01/politics/steve-bannon-report-to-prison/index.html
Opinion polls often show lots of people personally willing to pay more tax. But they never ask the obvious follow-up question: how much more tax?
We did. It wasn't pretty.
https://x.com/DanNeidle/status/1807708845843583090
But I'm not just talking about Trump - I'm talking about the GOP. The GOP, as a party, was always going to produce someone like Trump to lead them - and the GOP would not be less evil if someone like Rubio or Cruz were the nominee. Mitch McConnell is a demon in human flesh. The Dems really don't bring the fight to what the GOP really believes and since Trump has always argued that he is atypical and that the "real" Republicans need to take their party back. But Trump is the manifestation of the Republican beliefs - demagoguery, anti-democratic (as in democracy, not the party), xenophobia and nationalism, white grievance etc. Trump is unorthodox in the party on his foreign policy - he doesn't care about continuing the American international hegemony in the same way most Republicans used to - but he certainly isn't a dove.
For those who don’t know - on an early Falcon 9 flight, they found a small crack in the edge of the second stage engine bell. After some thinking, they sent this guy in. He used tape to mark off, cut the nozzle down an inch or two with tin snips and sanded and polished the new edge by hand.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=swloMVFALXw
And hypothetical polling is always difficult. I don't disagree that Trump does seem to have an edge - people have rose tinted glasses about the Trump economy and don't want to think about Covid / lockdown and so blame Biden for the impact of it. But generic democrat tends to be more popular than Trump or the GOP as a whole.
https://www.politico.eu/article/liz-truss-unlikely-journey-from-downing-street-chief-to-deep-state-conspiracist/
Would be interested in your feedback from your area. It is usually spot on (damn it!).
In the C of E it is rare that one church alone has a big enough congregation to be self sustaining alone, although a few evangelical churches in the bigger cities and towns manage it. Cathedrals also still get reasonable attendance and tourist income too
One of the comments:
I’ve had 6 signs removed, so far from my front garden, the last two actually screwed to the stakes were ripped off, which must have taken quite some effort, the stakes remain being rather large to carry away!
The most important one facing the main road remains, it’s out of arm’s reach.
Across our constituency Romsey and Southampton North we have had 50-100 removed, often the same sites repeatedly, at quite a cost! I guess they are touching a raw nerve with our opponents.
https://www.libdemvoice.org/stolen-signs-75431.html
It's certain the Lib Dems will miss out on some seats by less than the combined Labour/Green vote. But if they do so in Surrey Heath, it probably won't be because a lot of those voters weren't aware of who best to vote for to beat the Tories in their area. They'll just not have cared enough to shift their vote from their preferred choice to one which might unseat the blues - they just want to keep the red flag flying. Whereas in Exmouth, for example, it may genuinely be unclear to an anti-Tory voter what to do.
3/1 with bet365
Trump is too old - why negate that advantage by picking someone even older?
Trump has a massive nepotism problem - why negate that advantage by picking a candidate whose son was blatantly influence peddling?
Trump rambles incoherently - why negate that advantage by picking someone who also has problems putting a meaningful sentence together?
Trump is a sleazeball with a ton of accusations against him of sexually inappropriate or worse behaviour - why negate that advantage by picking a candidate with allegations against him?
I don't remember ever offering an opinion on whether Biden (or Trump for that matter) has dementia or not, though @Leon says he's found dozens by me, so I must have done, because Leon would never make shit up. So maybe I have dementia?
I have also consistently questioned the idea that Biden was a great candidate because he was especially popular in states Dems needed to win like Pennsylvania, because the facts don't seem back this up.
Of course given the choice between Biden and Trump, I would pick Biden every time without a moment's hesitation.
They will be won by bluecollar voters concerned about manufacturing jobs who voted for Trump in 2016 but Biden in 2020 and suburban independents
My delivery effort so far. Each one of those sheets represents a delivery walk.
Pron Stewkey btw
The oysters are excellent, just a couple of notches below those in ushant, but great
What a trip. I can absolutely recommend a road trip around four or five different Breton islands. They are all brilliantly different: from the opulence of belle ile to the the Neolithic of gavrinnis, from the celtic Enid Blyton of Ouessant to the end of the world noominess of ile de sein. Superbe
Possibly as a result of differing attitudes towards court proceedings and freedom of speech, that has let him be portrayed as a martyr.
Yet most Brits with a little knowledge of US politics, would likely say that his American equivalent is David Duke of the KKK, who’s seen as totally beyond the pale over there.
https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/49809-second-yougov-2024-election-mrp-shows-conservatives-on-lowest-seat-total-in-history
I'd like to report it was the start of a lifelong enthusiasm. I quite like the idea of oysters. But sadly not: not really for me.
If he loses by thousands, such is life. The voters will have spoken...the bastards. If he loses by a handful, I shall feel personally responsible. I expect there will be a significant number of Tories hanging on with tiny majorities. I will take South Devon as being one!
When Johnson announced his resignation in July 2022 the Tories had made huge losses and were on course to win only 211 seats in a general election, which would have been the fifth heaviest defeat in their 190 year history.
https://x.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1807710509782782326
*On the day Boris was removed from office we were between 2-4 p behind in the polls.
The most effective part of the campaign so far has been Boris columns in the @DailyMailUK and the letters he’s written and videos he’s made for candidates.
This mess is 100pc owned by Sunak and those of you who advocated for BJ to be removed and replaced with Sunak.
https://x.com/NadineDorries/status/1807503946728063342
To work on a satellite - multi ton object after all - it is standard to bolt it to a turntable. Despite these not being flight equipment, the more-is-better attitude took hold and these are often aerospace grade bolts. Several hundred dollars a piece.
So, of course, there weren’t enough. So a team working on one satellite borrowed the set being used on another satellite. They forgot to leave a message.
So a technician went into work, rotated the satellite. And it fell off the turntable. All x millions of dollars of it…
The Vicar of Bray is a reference to a very longstanding late 17th century incumbent who ratted, re-ratted, re-re-ratted, and re-re-re-ratted between Anglican and Protestant to suit the whims of the head of state. He is said to have commented towards the end, although it's probably apocryphal, "I have remained true to my principles, which are to live and die as the Vicar of Bray". Although in a way that bouncing about is an apt analogy for Davey's bungee jump too.
If there was no NHS, the richest areas and people would do fine with a mixture of payment and insurance. The poorer people and areas would suffer. Harley Street would flourish.
In parvo, the CoE is just the same. If left alone, the prosperous will do fine. The neglected, poor, deprived will wither.
The question is what we want. Whether the CoE is Waitrose - it's there for the prosperous - or the NHS (in theory) - it's a national service for all.
But at the moment we expect 11 old ladies and a dog to fund a national service, and raise a million to mend the roof. That can't survive, and the old ladies are getting older.
Would you pick Biden even with dementia? Knowing that the Dems have covered that up? And that China could pounce on this weakened lunatic of a leader?
At that point, Trump is arguably less of a risk to America’s security and democracy
Rumours persist that David Lammy won't be Foreign Secretary. Douglas Alexander is the name being mentioned most, with David Miliband also a possibility. There is a third option that I haven't seen anyone put forward.
Peter Mandelson.
https://x.com/IainDale/status/1807722033247064118
https://www.newyorker.com/culture/the-weekend-essay/the-case-against-travel
Unto my Dying Day, Sir.
That whatsoever King may reign,
I will be the Vicar of Bray, Sir!
Phew about Davey. I laid him jumping out of an aeroplane at 50/1. I suppose he still has time.
I suspect it is more likely to be the Hamas crowd than the Conservatives. Some of the graffiti suggests so.
(oh, and get well soon and all that
The weirdness is discussed here
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-we-love-hideous-food/
The big jobs are all going to the relevant shadows. If there’s any movement it will be at the lower cabinet ranks.
However other areas will find it much more difficult to sustain their Parish church, unless an evangelical church with a big congregation but which tend to be hardline conservative on social issues.
So yes the state should help support certainly the historic grade listed churches if needed as should things like lottery funding. The C of E could also use more of its investment proceeds and rental income to support them rather than on admin and things like church planting which rarely works
https://prospect.org/politics/2024-06-28-democrats-must-dump-biden-heres-how-debate/
We are three sleeps off polling day and no-one knows anything much. This is remarkable
I think John Curtice will have a tough gig on Thursday, though at the end of it we will still admire his wisdom and clarity. Expect lots of caveats at 10 pm.
Britain could have been a success in the EU. It could have been a failure in the EU. It could have been a success outside the EU, or a failure outside the EU.
Those were all options; sadly, we've headed towards the latter option. That's largely down to Brexit, the Brexiteers and the Europhobes. Being outside the EU meant more than what was good for the country.
I'm far from being the most adventurous of eaters, but when I think of the variety encompassed by just mackerel, cod, salmon, trout and monkfish, and the different ways to prepare and cook them. What a loss.
https://newrepublic.com/article/183303/barack-obama-party-country-need-lead
- First months
Hereditaries OUT (I'd say totally gone by Christmas).
Retirement age (maybe)
50 Labour working piers IN.
A few others IN, but no Tories since they have been relatively stuffing them in for years like a Labrador and sausages, and there are hardly any Tory MPs left.
Minimal Honours for Rishi 'because reform is being conisered'.
- then reconsider the thing over 12-18 months during 1st term:
Retirement age (maybe as part of transition)
Longer term reform and transition. If we are going for say Elected by quarters every 4 years, then some life peers would be there for 15-18 years, which seems reasonable to me.
That’s like saying “I’m not in favour of sex” or “I can’t abide a mountain” or “I prefer not to move my arms in the afternoon”