Further on Lucky Guy's link to Redwood. This is a lovely and double example of Redwood's use of the motto of St Trinian's : "Get your blow in first". It gives us an interesting outline of the future.
Redwood firstly gets his blow in by pointing out that I won't say I told you so but I did - standard fare.
But he adds that the Tories lost because they governed and stood as the old One Nation Tory party, proving that the phoenix arising from the ashes must be no such thing.
He offers less to the several million centrists who are declining to vote Tory for reasons obscure to him. It isn't because the Tories are too left wing actually.
Eh?
The One Nation Tories won an election.
The batshit Brexit Tories he supports are about to face an ELE
And his answer is "more batshit"...
Quite!
I expect them to go further down the rabbit hole until the next GE defeat.
The only problem with being a digital nomad is getting round online betting restrictions. Lots of interesting tips on the last few threads but I'm struggling with my VPN. The chance of incarceration also changes the risk profile somewhat...
MiC final Scotland call, Wales to follow 🆕 Our final @Moreincommon_ Scottish voting intention of the election finds Labour lead the SNP by 5. 🔴LAB 35% (+16) 🟡SNP 30% (-15) 🔵CON 16% (-9) 🟠LIB DEM 9% (-1) 🟣REF UK 7% (NEW) 🟢GRN 2% (+1) Changes with 2019, N=1008, 24-28/6 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/general-electi…
Further on Lucky Guy's link to Redwood. This is a lovely and double example of Redwood's use of the motto of St Trinian's : "Get your blow in first". It gives us an interesting outline of the future.
Redwood firstly gets his blow in by pointing out that I won't say I told you so but I did - standard fare.
But he adds that the Tories lost because they governed and stood as the old One Nation Tory party, proving that the phoenix arising from the ashes must be no such thing.
He offers less to the several million centrists who are declining to vote Tory for reasons obscure to him. It isn't because the Tories are too left wing actually.
Eh?
The One Nation Tories won an election.
The batshit Brexit Tories he supports are about to face an ELE
And his answer is "more batshit"...
Quite!
I expect them to go further down the rabbit hole until the next GE defeat.
My interest has already tailed off.
For the first time in a long time, the adults are back in charge.
I love a long odds value loser. Just put a fiver on Alicia Kearns for next Conservative leader.
This is the most fun election ever for me, in the sense that I put a decent whack on Labour Majority at 5/1 in Jan 2022, right after I saw prices on food going up in the shops weekly, and knew the incumbent would be punished at the next election irrespective of whatever else. So I am green more or less whatever dumb long odds bets I put on. Two of my favourites are Labour 500+ seats at 25/1 and Con 150-200 seats at 8/1, still available at 7/1. Hat tip also to Casino for Libs to gain Epsom and Ewell at 14/1, trading at 2/1 last time I checked.
I think the Con / RefUK split makes it hard to find value in this market, because there's no real precedent and a strong RefUK showing could cost the Conservatives almost all their seats without winning any themselves, whereas a couple of points less for the RefUKers could see the Conservatives coasting 150 seats plus.
Because I'm green thanks to the Jan 2022 bet, I still have a decent amount of money in the tank for bets on the night. PB has always been an awesome source of tips, I've usually made more from bets on the night than on bets placed during the campaign. Andy_JS's spreadsheet and Alistair's tip on SNP seats spring to mind.
Trouble is, I've helped the Greens in one of their top target seats, and their ground campaign or even basic understanding of what they are supposed to be doing is pitifully shambolic, which doesn't inspire confidence in their wider prospects. At least with the LibDems we can be confident that in their top targets it's going to be well organised and professional on the ground, right through to close of poll.
I'm involved in the Labour effort in Didcot and Wantage, which is supposedly a LibDem target, and unofficially a Labour target too. The LibDem effort is overwhelmingly in delivering leaflets - up to 4 different ones on the same day to the same household. They are certainly much larger in number than the Labour leaflets, and the Tories are barely trying in leaflets although it's a solid Tory seat. Labour and LibDems are roughly competitive in number of posters, with zero Tories and a couple of Reform.
The LibDems could win, but I'm not impressed by the professionalism. If you get 1 leaflet you might read it. If you get 4 from the same source on the same day, the impression is that someone is trying to fulfil a quota, and you certainly don't read them unless you're very obsessive. More to the point, I'd argue that you're less likely to take the campaign seriously - but I could be wrong? The evident calculation is that floating anti-Tory voters take the delivery of 4 leaflets in a day as a sign that the party is really keen.
As a humble voter who has never canvassed or leafleted, I do end thinking about all the waste too. I have never read a leaflet from any party. I guess enough do, such that it’s worth printing them, but it does seem very wasteful.
One of the consistencies of recent polling is that the Tory vote is more or less exactly half the Labour vote. There are of course individual exceptions.
Rather obviously I think this means that Labour cannot possibly lose outright, whatever happens.
Mathematically you could win two thirds of the seats with a vote share just a handful of votes above half that of an opposing party, but obviously it's never going to fall like that.
I’d have to think this through to be sure I was right, but I suspect the very nature of this point is what drives the two “poles” of our FPTP system. Tory vs. Whig/Lib/Lab is driven by “where” the two blocks are that can still have a decent number of seats when the other lot are dominant, because of their one vote distribution.
The whole question about Reform vs. Tory is whether it is like Lab to the Libs in the early 19th century, where they took over that ground in enough places to win, or whether Reform support is spread too thinly to matter.
I keep saying this, but I am struck by the idea that for any given party there’s a tipping point where they start winning big. The seat modellers can manage that to some extent for the liberals because there’s precedents; but Reform/Green are outliers.
Linked to that, the Greens have been scoring well for ages in some polls and we’ve all said “it’ll go back to Labour”. But what if it doesn’t and what if it’s concentrated? Likewise, what if Reform is just a bit better concentrated than UKIP.
Like we are all saying, nothing affects a Starmer win at the macro level, but the shape of the Parliament through to the next election is really interesting, given him starting from a (in context) low base in votes.
Lib to Lab was coupled with a genuine shift in European politics towards a different economic and social model. Reform, like many of the anti-immigration parties, are looking for a reversion or hardening or the old conservative party model. It's hard to see what stops the Tories from becoming a Reform-like party, if that ever looks like a more popular option, which it currently doesn't.
I basically agree, and have written at length on here that Tory and Labour obituaries are always premature and they always come back. But there is a danger area for the Tories if Reform and the LibDems both got decent seat totals and the LibDems went “orange book”. They might not know which way to jump and could get pulled in two.
Everyone we tested has approval ratings underwater in Scotland, but the most striking shift is John Swinney who in our first poll of the campaign had a net approval of -2 but is now at -15, suggesting a very short honeymoon period for the First Minister
Con Gain Bootle is 100/1 whereas in reality it's probably 500/1
Green Gain IoW is *200/1* whereas in reality it's probably 10/1.
IoW could easily go four-way marginal. It's the Greens who are in third there, not the LDs who are nowhere, and Reform could split the Tory vote without Labour gaining much at all.
There's also Waveney Valley and North Herefordshire as plausible Green wins.
Which IoW are we talking about here?
Both seats are likely to be 4 way battles with the winner struggling to get 30%. So could be either.
Which means they are FUCK ME value.
The odds being offered on the Greens in both seats are insane.
Trouble is, I've helped the Greens in one of their top target seats, and their ground campaign or even basic understanding of what they are supposed to be doing is pitifully shambolic, which doesn't inspire confidence in their wider prospects. At least with the LibDems we can be confident that in their top targets it's going to be well organised and professional on the ground, right through to close of poll.
I'm involved in the Labour effort in Didcot and Wantage, which is supposedly a LibDem target, and unofficially a Labour target too. The LibDem effort is overwhelmingly in delivering leaflets - up to 4 different ones on the same day to the same household. They are certainly much larger in number than the Labour leaflets, and the Tories are barely trying in leaflets although it's a solid Tory seat. Labour and LibDems are roughly competitive in number of posters, with zero Tories and a couple of Reform.
The LibDems could win, but I'm not impressed by the professionalism. If you get 1 leaflet you might read it. If you get 4 from the same source on the same day, the impression is that someone is trying to fulfil a quota, and you certainly don't read them unless you're very obsessive. More to the point, I'd argue that you're less likely to take the campaign seriously - but I could be wrong? The evident calculation is that floating anti-Tory voters take the delivery of 4 leaflets in a day as a sign that the party is really keen.
The LDs will not be intending to deliver 4 leaflets in a day. We are not stupid, but one of the aspects of a lot of deliveries is overlap can happen eg a National leaflets goes out by Royal Mail that coincides with one of the free candidate Royal Mail deliveries. As the free Royal Mail delivery will be by address some households will get 4 (even 5) over the campaign, so an overlap here is possible, particularly as you don't have too much control over the date it is delivered. On top of that you have the local deliverers delivering at least once a week and we don't know what date the other deliveries will hit the mat. So for some houses you are bound to get two in a day, maybe even 3. If you get 4 you are exceedingly lucky (or unlucky depending upon your point of view)
Most house will only get one at a time most of the time, but are bound to get 2 in a day occasionally. To get more will be rare but will happen.
It is nothing to do with lack of professionalism. It can't be avoided to occasionally happen if you deliver frequently by different sources.
MiC final Scotland call, Wales to follow 🆕 Our final @Moreincommon_ Scottish voting intention of the election finds Labour lead the SNP by 5. 🔴LAB 35% (+16) 🟡SNP 30% (-15) 🔵CON 16% (-9) 🟠LIB DEM 9% (-1) 🟣REF UK 7% (NEW) 🟢GRN 2% (+1) Changes with 2019, N=1008, 24-28/6 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/general-electi…
I am in the most French place in France. The bar tabac of the little town of Guingamp. It’s full of old men drinking Ricard and beer. The bar woman is sexy in a jolie laide way. The tv screens are showing macron - indifference reigns - or that weird French horse trotting sport - gains a bit more attention. Outside they are having a small pointless parade of antique 2CVs to ironic cheers. Levels of shrugging are off the dial
It’s poor and quite plasticky but also big and bustling. Kids run around as granny drinks cheap red wine. You can have paninis such as “steack cheddar + frites”. Lots of tattoos. The guy in front of me is about 60 and surly yet also somehow cheery and looks like a rubbish Russian mobster and is wearing a World of Warcraft tee shirt
Everyone we tested has approval ratings underwater in Scotland, but the most striking shift is John Swinney who in our first poll of the campaign had a net approval of -2 but is now at -15, suggesting a very short honeymoon period for the First Minister
After Falkirk yesterday (SNP majority 15,000), on the last sunday before polling day John Swinney is campaigning in North Ayrshire and Arran, a seat with an 11,000 majority. Blimey, their internal numbers must be grim indeed.
One of the consistencies of recent polling is that the Tory vote is more or less exactly half the Labour vote. There are of course individual exceptions.
Rather obviously I think this means that Labour cannot possibly lose outright, whatever happens.
Mathematically you could win two thirds of the seats with a vote share just a handful of votes above half that of an opposing party, but obviously it's never going to fall like that.
I’d have to think this through to be sure I was right, but I suspect the very nature of this point is what drives the two “poles” of our FPTP system. Tory vs. Whig/Lib/Lab is driven by “where” the two blocks are that can still have a decent number of seats when the other lot are dominant, because of their one vote distribution.
The whole question about Reform vs. Tory is whether it is like Lab to the Libs in the early 19th century, where they took over that ground in enough places to win, or whether Reform support is spread too thinly to matter.
I keep saying this, but I am struck by the idea that for any given party there’s a tipping point where they start winning big. The seat modellers can manage that to some extent for the liberals because there’s precedents; but Reform/Green are outliers.
Linked to that, the Greens have been scoring well for ages in some polls and we’ve all said “it’ll go back to Labour”. But what if it doesn’t and what if it’s concentrated? Likewise, what if Reform is just a bit better concentrated than UKIP.
Like we are all saying, nothing affects a Starmer win at the macro level, but the shape of the Parliament through to the next election is really interesting, given him starting from a (in context) low base in votes.
There are a whole series of interesting questions, and I expect PB will not run out of subject matter from Friday.
One is this. justify getting a victory/landslide on, say, 36% of the vote or even less.
To do that you have to look collectively. The public are not fools. Party X on 36% will not win (let's ignore mathematical unlikelihoods) if party Y has 48 or even 42%. But it can win a landslide if party Y gets 18% (today this is a real world possibility).
The non-foolish public could easily stop Labour winning if they wanted. You coalesce around the party or combination that beats their 36%, using tactical voting.
It is overwhelmingly obvious that almost no-one is voting Tory tactically. Talk to people! Obvious that those voting LD, Green, even SNP etc , and even Reform too, are doing so with a mind to removing a Tory government. If current tactics were nor enough, a movement would have arisen to make sure it still happened. FPTP is basically a brilliant system.
Only about 20% of voters will vote to keep the present government. That justifies a landslide.
Trouble is, I've helped the Greens in one of their top target seats, and their ground campaign or even basic understanding of what they are supposed to be doing is pitifully shambolic, which doesn't inspire confidence in their wider prospects. At least with the LibDems we can be confident that in their top targets it's going to be well organised and professional on the ground, right through to close of poll.
I'm involved in the Labour effort in Didcot and Wantage, which is supposedly a LibDem target, and unofficially a Labour target too. The LibDem effort is overwhelmingly in delivering leaflets - up to 4 different ones on the same day to the same household. They are certainly much larger in number than the Labour leaflets, and the Tories are barely trying in leaflets although it's a solid Tory seat. Labour and LibDems are roughly competitive in number of posters, with zero Tories and a couple of Reform.
The LibDems could win, but I'm not impressed by the professionalism. If you get 1 leaflet you might read it. If you get 4 from the same source on the same day, the impression is that someone is trying to fulfil a quota, and you certainly don't read them unless you're very obsessive. More to the point, I'd argue that you're less likely to take the campaign seriously - but I could be wrong? The evident calculation is that floating anti-Tory voters take the delivery of 4 leaflets in a day as a sign that the party is really keen.
Projecting a little Nick? You need 3 leaflets delivered for an average voter to notice.
MiC final Scotland call, Wales to follow 🆕 Our final @Moreincommon_ Scottish voting intention of the election finds Labour lead the SNP by 5. 🔴LAB 35% (+16) 🟡SNP 30% (-15) 🔵CON 16% (-9) 🟠LIB DEM 9% (-1) 🟣REF UK 7% (NEW) 🟢GRN 2% (+1) Changes with 2019, N=1008, 24-28/6 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/general-electi…
Trouble is, I've helped the Greens in one of their top target seats, and their ground campaign or even basic understanding of what they are supposed to be doing is pitifully shambolic, which doesn't inspire confidence in their wider prospects. At least with the LibDems we can be confident that in their top targets it's going to be well organised and professional on the ground, right through to close of poll.
I'm involved in the Labour effort in Didcot and Wantage, which is supposedly a LibDem target, and unofficially a Labour target too. The LibDem effort is overwhelmingly in delivering leaflets - up to 4 different ones on the same day to the same household. They are certainly much larger in number than the Labour leaflets, and the Tories are barely trying in leaflets although it's a solid Tory seat. Labour and LibDems are roughly competitive in number of posters, with zero Tories and a couple of Reform.
The LibDems could win, but I'm not impressed by the professionalism. If you get 1 leaflet you might read it. If you get 4 from the same source on the same day, the impression is that someone is trying to fulfil a quota, and you certainly don't read them unless you're very obsessive. More to the point, I'd argue that you're less likely to take the campaign seriously - but I could be wrong? The evident calculation is that floating anti-Tory voters take the delivery of 4 leaflets in a day as a sign that the party is really keen.
As a humble voter who has never canvassed or leafleted, I do end thinking about all the waste too. I have never read a leaflet from any party. I guess enough do, such that it’s worth printing them, but it does seem very wasteful.
The Green Party should just leave a branded loo roll on every doorstep. Pair up with Who gives a crap, who use recycled paper/bamboo.
Would mean you look at their "literature" every day in the run up to the election.
Was Michael J Fox appearing onstage with Coldplay last night...
1. A Global superstar living his best life playing in front of 100,000 fans? 2. A prop, cynically used by Coldplay to burnish their woke credentials?
Both is the standard PB reply to these type of questions.
I noticed also this question and answer pair the other day: will a SKS administration see huge increases in immigration?
1. Yes because he's a socialist and reasons AND IT'S NOT FAIR WAAAH. 2. No because the wise and benevolent Rishi Sunak has already sorted it and reasons AND IT'S NOT FAIR WAAAH.
One of the consistencies of recent polling is that the Tory vote is more or less exactly half the Labour vote. There are of course individual exceptions.
Rather obviously I think this means that Labour cannot possibly lose outright, whatever happens.
Mathematically you could win two thirds of the seats with a vote share just a handful of votes above half that of an opposing party, but obviously it's never going to fall like that.
I’d have to think this through to be sure I was right, but I suspect the very nature of this point is what drives the two “poles” of our FPTP system. Tory vs. Whig/Lib/Lab is driven by “where” the two blocks are that can still have a decent number of seats when the other lot are dominant, because of their one vote distribution.
The whole question about Reform vs. Tory is whether it is like Lab to the Libs in the early 19th century, where they took over that ground in enough places to win, or whether Reform support is spread too thinly to matter.
I keep saying this, but I am struck by the idea that for any given party there’s a tipping point where they start winning big. The seat modellers can manage that to some extent for the liberals because there’s precedents; but Reform/Green are outliers.
Linked to that, the Greens have been scoring well for ages in some polls and we’ve all said “it’ll go back to Labour”. But what if it doesn’t and what if it’s concentrated? Likewise, what if Reform is just a bit better concentrated than UKIP.
Like we are all saying, nothing affects a Starmer win at the macro level, but the shape of the Parliament through to the next election is really interesting, given him starting from a (in context) low base in votes.
Lib to Lab was coupled with a genuine shift in European politics towards a different economic and social model. Reform, like many of the anti-immigration parties, are looking for a reversion or hardening or the old conservative party model. It's hard to see what stops the Tories from becoming a Reform-like party, if that ever looks like a more popular option, which it currently doesn't.
I basically agree, and have written at length on here that Tory and Labour obituaries are always premature and they always come back. But there is a danger area for the Tories if Reform and the LibDems both got decent seat totals and the LibDems went “orange book”. They might not know which way to jump and could get pulled in two.
I think, after one or two elections, a Lib Dem party that tries to be centre-right would get kicked out by the real thing. There are still 35-40% voting Tory or Reform, they're just profoundly split.
I am in the most French place in France. The bar tabac of the little town of Guingamp. It’s full of old men drinking Ricard and beer. The bar woman is sexy in a jolie laide way. The tv screens are showing macron - indifference reigns - or that weird French horse trotting sport - gains a bit more attention. Outside they are having a small pointless parade of antique 2CVs to ironic cheers. Levels of shrugging are off the dial
It’s poor and quite plasticky but also big and bustling. Kids run around as granny drinks cheap red wine. You can have paninis such as “steack cheddar + frites”. Lots of tattoos. The guy in front of me is about 60 and surly yet also somehow cheery and looks like a rubbish Russian mobster and is wearing a World of Warcraft tee shirt
One of the consistencies of recent polling is that the Tory vote is more or less exactly half the Labour vote. There are of course individual exceptions.
Rather obviously I think this means that Labour cannot possibly lose outright, whatever happens.
Mathematically you could win two thirds of the seats with a vote share just a handful of votes above half that of an opposing party, but obviously it's never going to fall like that.
I’d have to think this through to be sure I was right, but I suspect the very nature of this point is what drives the two “poles” of our FPTP system. Tory vs. Whig/Lib/Lab is driven by “where” the two blocks are that can still have a decent number of seats when the other lot are dominant, because of their one vote distribution.
The whole question about Reform vs. Tory is whether it is like Lab to the Libs in the early 19th century, where they took over that ground in enough places to win, or whether Reform support is spread too thinly to matter.
I keep saying this, but I am struck by the idea that for any given party there’s a tipping point where they start winning big. The seat modellers can manage that to some extent for the liberals because there’s precedents; but Reform/Green are outliers.
Linked to that, the Greens have been scoring well for ages in some polls and we’ve all said “it’ll go back to Labour”. But what if it doesn’t and what if it’s concentrated? Likewise, what if Reform is just a bit better concentrated than UKIP.
Like we are all saying, nothing affects a Starmer win at the macro level, but the shape of the Parliament through to the next election is really interesting, given him starting from a (in context) low base in votes.
There are a whole series of interesting questions, and I expect PB will not run out of subject matter from Friday.
One is this. justify getting a victory/landslide on, say, 36% of the vote or even less.
To do that you have to look collectively. The public are not fools. Party X on 36% will not win (let's ignore mathematical unlikelihoods) if party Y has 48 or even 42%. But it can win a landslide if party Y gets 18% (today this is a real world possibility).
The non-foolish public could easily stop Labour winning if they wanted. You coalesce around the party or combination that beats their 36%, using tactical voting.
It is overwhelmingly obvious that almost no-one is voting Tory tactically. Talk to people! Obvious that those voting LD, Green, even SNP etc , and even Reform too, are doing so with a mind to removing a Tory government. If current tactics were nor enough, a movement would have arisen to make sure it still happened. FPTP is basically a brilliant system.
Only about 20% of voters will vote to keep the present government. That justifies a landslide.
I don’t disagree with any of that. I’m thinking about the outcomes. The green and reform numbers look like they could represent a phase shift to me. They could fall away to nothing as well, but we are quite close to having a really interesting new Parliament (within the content of a massive Labour Party on one side of the aisle - and probably creeping over like in 97/01).
Trouble is, I've helped the Greens in one of their top target seats, and their ground campaign or even basic understanding of what they are supposed to be doing is pitifully shambolic, which doesn't inspire confidence in their wider prospects. At least with the LibDems we can be confident that in their top targets it's going to be well organised and professional on the ground, right through to close of poll.
I'm involved in the Labour effort in Didcot and Wantage, which is supposedly a LibDem target, and unofficially a Labour target too. The LibDem effort is overwhelmingly in delivering leaflets - up to 4 different ones on the same day to the same household. They are certainly much larger in number than the Labour leaflets, and the Tories are barely trying in leaflets although it's a solid Tory seat. Labour and LibDems are roughly competitive in number of posters, with zero Tories and a couple of Reform.
The LibDems could win, but I'm not impressed by the professionalism. If you get 1 leaflet you might read it. If you get 4 from the same source on the same day, the impression is that someone is trying to fulfil a quota, and you certainly don't read them unless you're very obsessive. More to the point, I'd argue that you're less likely to take the campaign seriously - but I could be wrong? The evident calculation is that floating anti-Tory voters take the delivery of 4 leaflets in a day as a sign that the party is really keen.
FWIW we've now had more than 10 Labour leaflets here in the Banbury constituency, over on the other side of the county. If excess leafleting is counter-productive, you might want to tell Sean Woodcock that.
(We also got canvassed for the first time yesterday despite displaying a LibDem diamond in the window, which suggests that the squeeze operation is underway.)
MiC final Scotland call, Wales to follow 🆕 Our final @Moreincommon_ Scottish voting intention of the election finds Labour lead the SNP by 5. 🔴LAB 35% (+16) 🟡SNP 30% (-15) 🔵CON 16% (-9) 🟠LIB DEM 9% (-1) 🟣REF UK 7% (NEW) 🟢GRN 2% (+1) Changes with 2019, N=1008, 24-28/6 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/general-electi…
Everyone we tested has approval ratings underwater in Scotland, but the most striking shift is John Swinney who in our first poll of the campaign had a net approval of -2 but is now at -15, suggesting a very short honeymoon period for the First Minister
After Falkirk yesterday (SNP majority 15,000), on the last sunday before polling day John Swinney is campaigning in North Ayrshire and Arran, a seat with an 11,000 majority. Blimey, their internal numbers must be grim indeed.
Once they have tried everything else they will try K Forbes; give her time to have another baby and a bit of maternity leave and it's her turn.
After that, with Streeting PM and Forbes getting independence, Selwyn College rules.
I reckon Remainers are holding their noses and turning to Corbyn (see Truro) Question is, how many Remainery CON/LAB marginals are there? Does anyone know, off the bat? Boris will surely make gains in the Red Wall, but a new Red Resistance further south could deny him.
Don't want to freak everybody out but I am getting anecdotal reports of a late Labour recovery. eg Truro now in serious doubt: Labour pressing hard Bloody hell.
This afternoon I am going to shift the bulk of my capital into foreign stocks, bonds and shares. Are you offshoring or ringfencing your assets? Seriously. What are you doing to hedge against a HP and Corbyn in power?
With great reluctance, I am forced to agree. It's a huge mood shift. I am not sure why. But it has happened. Labour are within touching distance of being biggest party Their problem is that it has come so so late, that is quite unlikely. But a hung parliament is super do-able.
I am now reconciled to a Hung Parliament, and Jeremy Jew-Hater Corbyn PM. I am arranging my affairs accordingly.
Given the way that the £ and UK markets shot up at the decisive election result and Corbyn's defeat, moving all his money into foreign stuff must have been a seriously expensive mistake by that former poster; no wonder he slunk away afterwards! Assuming it wasn't all p**s and wind in the first place.
Nicely done.
I would indeed be ironic if this is the twat that triggered Leon's mis-memory of lefty Rmeainers expecting a hung parliament.
MiC final Scotland call, Wales to follow 🆕 Our final @Moreincommon_ Scottish voting intention of the election finds Labour lead the SNP by 5. 🔴LAB 35% (+16) 🟡SNP 30% (-15) 🔵CON 16% (-9) 🟠LIB DEM 9% (-1) 🟣REF UK 7% (NEW) 🟢GRN 2% (+1) Changes with 2019, N=1008, 24-28/6 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/general-electi…
Trouble is, I've helped the Greens in one of their top target seats, and their ground campaign or even basic understanding of what they are supposed to be doing is pitifully shambolic, which doesn't inspire confidence in their wider prospects. At least with the LibDems we can be confident that in their top targets it's going to be well organised and professional on the ground, right through to close of poll.
I'm involved in the Labour effort in Didcot and Wantage, which is supposedly a LibDem target, and unofficially a Labour target too. The LibDem effort is overwhelmingly in delivering leaflets - up to 4 different ones on the same day to the same household. They are certainly much larger in number than the Labour leaflets, and the Tories are barely trying in leaflets although it's a solid Tory seat. Labour and LibDems are roughly competitive in number of posters, with zero Tories and a couple of Reform.
The LibDems could win, but I'm not impressed by the professionalism. If you get 1 leaflet you might read it. If you get 4 from the same source on the same day, the impression is that someone is trying to fulfil a quota, and you certainly don't read them unless you're very obsessive. More to the point, I'd argue that you're less likely to take the campaign seriously - but I could be wrong? The evident calculation is that floating anti-Tory voters take the delivery of 4 leaflets in a day as a sign that the party is really keen.
As a humble voter who has never canvassed or leafleted, I do end thinking about all the waste too. I have never read a leaflet from any party. I guess enough do, such that it’s worth printing them, but it does seem very wasteful.
The Green Party should just leave a branded loo roll on every doorstep. Pair up with Who gives a crap, who use recycled paper/bamboo.
Would mean you look at their "literature" every day in the run up to the election.
You'd need to wrap it individually in something waterproof, so that's a big no on principle.
Last night I thought I might have a swarm of bees in the wisteria - popped round to see if it was in their tree. No one in, so had a listen.
N just popped back - not in but their doorbell detected me.
He suggests it was a drone being flown over by an amateur, having had a similar noise and spotted a drone recently. I believe flying over residential is technically legal for sub-250g drones, if socially unwelcome from a privacy standpoint.
Has anyone had this? We are in a close to town centre residential area.
My concerns are criminals doing research, or what we used to call nosey parkers.
Trouble is, I've helped the Greens in one of their top target seats, and their ground campaign or even basic understanding of what they are supposed to be doing is pitifully shambolic, which doesn't inspire confidence in their wider prospects. At least with the LibDems we can be confident that in their top targets it's going to be well organised and professional on the ground, right through to close of poll.
I'm involved in the Labour effort in Didcot and Wantage, which is supposedly a LibDem target, and unofficially a Labour target too. The LibDem effort is overwhelmingly in delivering leaflets - up to 4 different ones on the same day to the same household. They are certainly much larger in number than the Labour leaflets, and the Tories are barely trying in leaflets although it's a solid Tory seat. Labour and LibDems are roughly competitive in number of posters, with zero Tories and a couple of Reform.
The LibDems could win, but I'm not impressed by the professionalism. If you get 1 leaflet you might read it. If you get 4 from the same source on the same day, the impression is that someone is trying to fulfil a quota, and you certainly don't read them unless you're very obsessive. More to the point, I'd argue that you're less likely to take the campaign seriously - but I could be wrong? The evident calculation is that floating anti-Tory voters take the delivery of 4 leaflets in a day as a sign that the party is really keen.
As a humble voter who has never canvassed or leafleted, I do end thinking about all the waste too. I have never read a leaflet from any party. I guess enough do, such that it’s worth printing them, but it does seem very wasteful.
The Green Party should just leave a branded loo roll on every doorstep. Pair up with Who gives a crap, who use recycled paper/bamboo.
Would mean you look at their "literature" every day in the run up to the election.
It is entirely possible more people will see Taylor Swift live in the UK than will vote Green at this election
MiC final Scotland call, Wales to follow 🆕 Our final @Moreincommon_ Scottish voting intention of the election finds Labour lead the SNP by 5. 🔴LAB 35% (+16) 🟡SNP 30% (-15) 🔵CON 16% (-9) 🟠LIB DEM 9% (-1) 🟣REF UK 7% (NEW) 🟢GRN 2% (+1) Changes with 2019, N=1008, 24-28/6 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/general-electi…
SNP to Con swing there.
Perth and Kinrosshire the sole gain of the night?
I am optimistic for more in Scotland plus Bootle.
Wait for the next GE - the Bootle be on the other foot then.
If he stands down, who's the most likely new candidate?
Betfair latest odds for the DEM nomination
Biden 1.71-1.73 Newsom 6.4-7.0 M Obama 10.5-11 Harris 12-13.6 Whitmer 17.5-28 H Clinton 38-46
And there's the problem. None of those have been tested outside their own states, aside from Hillary who lost, twice. Michelle Obama has never faced a ballot, and while Newsom is the West Wing candidate, there is no evidence his appeal extends across the country and even if it does, he would need to overcome being a White man who will have usurped a Black woman, and that might be enough to cost him victory and if he can't win in November, why appoint him now?
One of the consistencies of recent polling is that the Tory vote is more or less exactly half the Labour vote. There are of course individual exceptions.
Rather obviously I think this means that Labour cannot possibly lose outright, whatever happens.
Mathematically you could win two thirds of the seats with a vote share just a handful of votes above half that of an opposing party, but obviously it's never going to fall like that.
I’d have to think this through to be sure I was right, but I suspect the very nature of this point is what drives the two “poles” of our FPTP system. Tory vs. Whig/Lib/Lab is driven by “where” the two blocks are that can still have a decent number of seats when the other lot are dominant, because of their one vote distribution.
The whole question about Reform vs. Tory is whether it is like Lab to the Libs in the early 19th century, where they took over that ground in enough places to win, or whether Reform support is spread too thinly to matter.
I keep saying this, but I am struck by the idea that for any given party there’s a tipping point where they start winning big. The seat modellers can manage that to some extent for the liberals because there’s precedents; but Reform/Green are outliers.
Linked to that, the Greens have been scoring well for ages in some polls and we’ve all said “it’ll go back to Labour”. But what if it doesn’t and what if it’s concentrated? Likewise, what if Reform is just a bit better concentrated than UKIP.
Like we are all saying, nothing affects a Starmer win at the macro level, but the shape of the Parliament through to the next election is really interesting, given him starting from a (in context) low base in votes.
There are a whole series of interesting questions, and I expect PB will not run out of subject matter from Friday.
One is this. justify getting a victory/landslide on, say, 36% of the vote or even less.
To do that you have to look collectively. The public are not fools. Party X on 36% will not win (let's ignore mathematical unlikelihoods) if party Y has 48 or even 42%. But it can win a landslide if party Y gets 18% (today this is a real world possibility).
The non-foolish public could easily stop Labour winning if they wanted. You coalesce around the party or combination that beats their 36%, using tactical voting.
It is overwhelmingly obvious that almost no-one is voting Tory tactically. Talk to people! Obvious that those voting LD, Green, even SNP etc , and even Reform too, are doing so with a mind to removing a Tory government. If current tactics were nor enough, a movement would have arisen to make sure it still happened. FPTP is basically a brilliant system.
Only about 20% of voters will vote to keep the present government. That justifies a landslide.
I don’t disagree with any of that. I’m thinking about the outcomes. The green and reform numbers look like they could represent a phase shift to me. They could fall away to nothing as well, but we are quite close to having a really interesting new Parliament (within the content of a massive Labour Party on one side of the aisle - and probably creeping over like in 97/01).
Greens are probably driven by pandering to Muslim voters, bitter Corbynites, and a handful of Tory seats where they are the local opposition. Hard to see these persisting past 2024 in seats they don't win.
Just had a look at the local (Witham) FB page. Post from Priti Patel .... well one of her aides, obvs ...... what a helpful lady she is, etc. However the comments space is full.... well, 10 or so .... of people urging ba Reform vote. Last time I looked Priti was about 3% ahead of the Labour candidate who, although she hasn't impressed at the hustings I've attended or heard about is supposed to be a very pleasant lady, and an efficient and effective local councillor. I wonder, I wonder.
Last night I thought I might have a swarm of bees in the wisteria - popped round to see if it was in their tree. No one in, so had a listen.
N just popped back - not in but their doorbell detected me.
He suggests it was a drone being flown over by an amateur, having had a similar noise and spotted a drone recently. I believe flying over residential is technically legal for sub-250g drones, if socially unwelcome from a privacy standpoint.
Has anyone had this? We are in a close to town centre residential area.
My concerns are criminals doing research, or what we used to call nosey parkers.
Could it be a surveyor checking out a roof? M-i-l's roof was damaged in the storms last year, and the chap used a drone to survey and photograph the roof. Or estate agents taking property porn photos.
Trouble is, I've helped the Greens in one of their top target seats, and their ground campaign or even basic understanding of what they are supposed to be doing is pitifully shambolic, which doesn't inspire confidence in their wider prospects. At least with the LibDems we can be confident that in their top targets it's going to be well organised and professional on the ground, right through to close of poll.
I'm involved in the Labour effort in Didcot and Wantage, which is supposedly a LibDem target, and unofficially a Labour target too. The LibDem effort is overwhelmingly in delivering leaflets - up to 4 different ones on the same day to the same household. They are certainly much larger in number than the Labour leaflets, and the Tories are barely trying in leaflets although it's a solid Tory seat. Labour and LibDems are roughly competitive in number of posters, with zero Tories and a couple of Reform.
The LibDems could win, but I'm not impressed by the professionalism. If you get 1 leaflet you might read it. If you get 4 from the same source on the same day, the impression is that someone is trying to fulfil a quota, and you certainly don't read them unless you're very obsessive. More to the point, I'd argue that you're less likely to take the campaign seriously - but I could be wrong? The evident calculation is that floating anti-Tory voters take the delivery of 4 leaflets in a day as a sign that the party is really keen.
As a humble voter who has never canvassed or leafleted, I do end thinking about all the waste too. I have never read a leaflet from any party. I guess enough do, such that it’s worth printing them, but it does seem very wasteful.
The Green Party should just leave a branded loo roll on every doorstep. Pair up with Who gives a crap, who use recycled paper/bamboo.
Would mean you look at their "literature" every day in the run up to the election.
You'd need to wrap it individually in something waterproof, so that's a big no on principle.
Trouble is, I've helped the Greens in one of their top target seats, and their ground campaign or even basic understanding of what they are supposed to be doing is pitifully shambolic, which doesn't inspire confidence in their wider prospects. At least with the LibDems we can be confident that in their top targets it's going to be well organised and professional on the ground, right through to close of poll.
I'm involved in the Labour effort in Didcot and Wantage, which is supposedly a LibDem target, and unofficially a Labour target too. The LibDem effort is overwhelmingly in delivering leaflets - up to 4 different ones on the same day to the same household. They are certainly much larger in number than the Labour leaflets, and the Tories are barely trying in leaflets although it's a solid Tory seat. Labour and LibDems are roughly competitive in number of posters, with zero Tories and a couple of Reform.
The LibDems could win, but I'm not impressed by the professionalism. If you get 1 leaflet you might read it. If you get 4 from the same source on the same day, the impression is that someone is trying to fulfil a quota, and you certainly don't read them unless you're very obsessive. More to the point, I'd argue that you're less likely to take the campaign seriously - but I could be wrong? The evident calculation is that floating anti-Tory voters take the delivery of 4 leaflets in a day as a sign that the party is really keen.
As a humble voter who has never canvassed or leafleted, I do end thinking about all the waste too. I have never read a leaflet from any party. I guess enough do, such that it’s worth printing them, but it does seem very wasteful.
The Green Party should just leave a branded loo roll on every doorstep. Pair up with Who gives a crap, who use recycled paper/bamboo.
Would mean you look at their "literature" every day in the run up to the election.
Let’s run with this. The Tories should leave wet wipes that cannot biodegrade and end up in our rivers; Labour should knock on the door and take one of your loo rolls from you, the Liberals should offer to share their loo roll, and Reform should leave you a used pair of incontinence pants.
Yes, I think Galloway's Party, the Greens and Corbyn and maybe even Reform could take a couple of seats off Labour.
Peter Kellner, former President of Yougov, has now come out with his general election forecast as mentioned last thread which looks very close to 1997 (and indeed 2001) and looks much as I expect it to be too.
Peter Kellner prediction in Sunday Times:
• Labour: 37 per cent of the Britain-wide vote, 400 seats • Conservative: 24 per cent, 155 seats • Liberal Democrats: 13 per cent, 50 seats • Reform UK: 13 per cent, 2 seats • Green: 7 per cent, 2 seats • SNP: 33 per cent in Scotland, 18 seats • Other (including Northern Ireland): 23 seats • Labour majority: 150.
Labour and Tories slightly down on 1997 on voteshare and seats though, LDs slightly up on 1997 on seats but worse on voteshare.
Greens winning seats unlike 1997 and Reform also forecast to win seats which the Referendum Party failed to do then. SNP well down on 2019 but also still more seats than they got in 1997
I am in the most French place in France. The bar tabac of the little town of Guingamp. It’s full of old men drinking Ricard and beer. The bar woman is sexy in a jolie laide way. The tv screens are showing macron - indifference reigns - or that weird French horse trotting sport - gains a bit more attention. Outside they are having a small pointless parade of antique 2CVs to ironic cheers. Levels of shrugging are off the dial
It’s poor and quite plasticky but also big and bustling. Kids run around as granny drinks cheap red wine. You can have paninis such as “steack cheddar + frites”. Lots of tattoos. The guy in front of me is about 60 and surly yet also somehow cheery and looks like a rubbish Russian mobster and is wearing a World of Warcraft tee shirt
I yearn to know how they are all voting
Not for LREM I imagine
Is that macron’s bunch? Yeah. They don’t feel like Macronistes. Have a look
Its like a poorish but popular pub in a town south of Wrexham
The paradox is that the town itself is another stunner. A magnificent chateau in the middle. Medieval streets. Town walls and beautiful gardens, but the people look quite skint
Further on Lucky Guy's link to Redwood. This is a lovely and double example of Redwood's use of the motto of St Trinian's : "Get your blow in first". It gives us an interesting outline of the future.
Redwood firstly gets his blow in by pointing out that I won't say I told you so but I did - standard fare.
But he adds that the Tories lost because they governed and stood as the old One Nation Tory party, proving that the phoenix arising from the ashes must be no such thing.
He offers less to the several million centrists who are declining to vote Tory for reasons obscure to him. It isn't because the Tories are too left wing actually.
Eh?
The One Nation Tories won an election.
The batshit Brexit Tories he supports are about to face an ELE
And his answer is "be more batshit"...
Which election did the one nation Tories win? 1992?
2015 had a promise of an EU referendum. Would they have got a majority without it? And 2019 was all about getting Brexit done.
Last night I thought I might have a swarm of bees in the wisteria - popped round to see if it was in their tree. No one in, so had a listen.
N just popped back - not in but their doorbell detected me.
He suggests it was a drone being flown over by an amateur, having had a similar noise and spotted a drone recently. I believe flying over residential is technically legal for sub-250g drones, if socially unwelcome from a privacy standpoint.
Has anyone had this? We are in a close to town centre residential area.
My concerns are criminals doing research, or what we used to call nosey parkers.
Yes, I had it over my garden at about 100ft last Summer. Drone loitered for a couple of minutes, and then left.
It royally pissed me off. It should definitely be made illegal.
Trouble is, I've helped the Greens in one of their top target seats, and their ground campaign or even basic understanding of what they are supposed to be doing is pitifully shambolic, which doesn't inspire confidence in their wider prospects. At least with the LibDems we can be confident that in their top targets it's going to be well organised and professional on the ground, right through to close of poll.
I'm involved in the Labour effort in Didcot and Wantage, which is supposedly a LibDem target, and unofficially a Labour target too. The LibDem effort is overwhelmingly in delivering leaflets - up to 4 different ones on the same day to the same household. They are certainly much larger in number than the Labour leaflets, and the Tories are barely trying in leaflets although it's a solid Tory seat. Labour and LibDems are roughly competitive in number of posters, with zero Tories and a couple of Reform.
The LibDems could win, but I'm not impressed by the professionalism. If you get 1 leaflet you might read it. If you get 4 from the same source on the same day, the impression is that someone is trying to fulfil a quota, and you certainly don't read them unless you're very obsessive. More to the point, I'd argue that you're less likely to take the campaign seriously - but I could be wrong? The evident calculation is that floating anti-Tory voters take the delivery of 4 leaflets in a day as a sign that the party is really keen.
As a humble voter who has never canvassed or leafleted, I do end thinking about all the waste too. I have never read a leaflet from any party. I guess enough do, such that it’s worth printing them, but it does seem very wasteful.
The Green Party should just leave a branded loo roll on every doorstep. Pair up with Who gives a crap, who use recycled paper/bamboo.
Would mean you look at their "literature" every day in the run up to the election.
You'd need to wrap it individually in something waterproof, so that's a big no on principle.
Tenement doorsteps, perhaps.
(I briefly thought I was a genius)
Or simply give them out by hand. So long as it isn't raining.
The link is interesting. The seat by seat predictions seem to contain some mistakes (Christchurch is the speaker's seat; Grantham was Labour in 2019; Hexham will stay Tory - it won't) but is useful.
Its mode of presentation emphasises to the reader that most of the seats predicted to stay Tory do so only by tiny % points. MOE is real.
Seat by seats look questionable in many instances. Islington North is very obviously wrong as there is no account taken of Corbyn standing. I do not see the point of MRPs.
Some MRPs do take account of candidates like Corbyn.
AIUI, MRPs will have a small number of responses (tens) from every seat, which allows them to make some estimation of even odd seats, but they can’t be very accurate.
More in Commons final Welsh poll is bullish on Con The final Wales-only poll by More in Common of the general election campaign shows Labour ending the campaign on a 42 per cent vote share, and the Conservatives falling from 36 per cent of the vote in 2019 to just 22 per cent of the vote ahead of next Thursday’s election.
The full results of the poll were:
Labour - 42% (+1) Conservatives - 22% (-14) Plaid Cymru - 9% (-1) Reform UK - 14% (NEW) Liberal Democrat - 4% (-2) The Green Party - 5% (+4) (+/- figures are differences from 2019 vote share results).
Moreincommon.org.uk
I think they hold Brecon, Montgomery (and lose it on betgate) and Monmouth (just) on those figures
Edit - on UNS they'd also hold Pembrokeshire by my earlier mooted miracle!
If he stands down, who's the most likely new candidate?
Betfair latest odds for the DEM nomination
Biden 1.71-1.73 Newsom 6.4-7.0 M Obama 10.5-11 Harris 12-13.6 Whitmer 17.5-28 H Clinton 38-46
And there's the problem. None of those have been tested outside their own states, aside from Hillary who lost, twice. Michelle Obama has never faced a ballot, and while Newsom is the West Wing candidate, there is no evidence his appeal extends across the country and even if it does, he would need to overcome being a White man who will have usurped a Black woman, and that might be enough to cost him victory and if he can't win in November, why appoint him now?
Hence Gretchen Whitmer.
Newsom would be a massive target for Trump: “Make America California Again”, accompanied by many images of riots and homelessness - except for the day Xi Jinping turned up, when suddenly the streets were made clear for 48 hours.
One of the consistencies of recent polling is that the Tory vote is more or less exactly half the Labour vote. There are of course individual exceptions.
Rather obviously I think this means that Labour cannot possibly lose outright, whatever happens.
Mathematically you could win two thirds of the seats with a vote share just a handful of votes above half that of an opposing party, but obviously it's never going to fall like that.
I’d have to think this through to be sure I was right, but I suspect the very nature of this point is what drives the two “poles” of our FPTP system. Tory vs. Whig/Lib/Lab is driven by “where” the two blocks are that can still have a decent number of seats when the other lot are dominant, because of their one vote distribution.
The whole question about Reform vs. Tory is whether it is like Lab to the Libs in the early 19th century, where they took over that ground in enough places to win, or whether Reform support is spread too thinly to matter.
I keep saying this, but I am struck by the idea that for any given party there’s a tipping point where they start winning big. The seat modellers can manage that to some extent for the liberals because there’s precedents; but Reform/Green are outliers.
Linked to that, the Greens have been scoring well for ages in some polls and we’ve all said “it’ll go back to Labour”. But what if it doesn’t and what if it’s concentrated? Likewise, what if Reform is just a bit better concentrated than UKIP.
Like we are all saying, nothing affects a Starmer win at the macro level, but the shape of the Parliament through to the next election is really interesting, given him starting from a (in context) low base in votes.
There are a whole series of interesting questions, and I expect PB will not run out of subject matter from Friday.
One is this. justify getting a victory/landslide on, say, 36% of the vote or even less.
To do that you have to look collectively. The public are not fools. Party X on 36% will not win (let's ignore mathematical unlikelihoods) if party Y has 48 or even 42%. But it can win a landslide if party Y gets 18% (today this is a real world possibility).
The non-foolish public could easily stop Labour winning if they wanted. You coalesce around the party or combination that beats their 36%, using tactical voting.
It is overwhelmingly obvious that almost no-one is voting Tory tactically. Talk to people! Obvious that those voting LD, Green, even SNP etc , and even Reform too, are doing so with a mind to removing a Tory government. If current tactics were nor enough, a movement would have arisen to make sure it still happened. FPTP is basically a brilliant system.
Only about 20% of voters will vote to keep the present government. That justifies a landslide.
What I find so interesting about this post is the length, the logical contortions in it and the number of mentions of "fool" or "fools" in it.
Secretly, you are worried you are about to make the wrong decision, and might be a fool yourself to do it.
Incidentally I’m going to make another prediction. And before earning utter derision just remember who first called this Labour landslide.
I reckon for various reasons it is 50:50, perhaps 60:40, that Labour will increase their majority in 2028/9.
There. I’ve said it.
Yes. The possibility I've floated is that the oldies haven't become more right-wing, but they have become more conservative, i.e. pro-status quo and pro-incumbent. Gordon Brown did relatively well among the oldies in GE2010, for example.
So it's possible that when Starmer and Labour face re-election as incumbents in 2028/9, that they will increase their support from the oldies, the rest of the electorate will retain their aversion to voting Tory, and so Labour will increase their majority.
I wouldn't predict this happening myself, but I think it's a plausible hypothesis to keep an eye on.
NEW YORK (AP) — A sense of concern is growing inside the top ranks of the Democratic Party that leaders of Joe Biden’s campaign and the Democratic National Committee are not taking seriously enough the impact of the president’s troubling debate performance earlier in the week.
DNC Chairman Jaime Harrison and Biden campaign manager Julie Chavez Rodriguez held a Saturday afternoon call with dozens of committee members across the country, a group of some of the most influential members of the party. They largely ignored Biden’s weak showing Thursday night or the avalanche of criticism that followed.
Multiple committee members on the call, most granted anonymity to talk about the private discussion, described feeling like they were being gaslighted
My favourite features of Coventry Cathedral are the etched glass in the entrance facade, which is I think the best in the country, and the humour of the columns which suddenly reduce to a small steel pin. This is my photo for the day below. The building is a tour de force - as good as any of the Medieval cathedrals, excepting there is not the long historical narrative preserved in the building itself, though there are many, many echoes.
It's also the perfect tourist destination in between London or Canterbury and York Minster, plus the WW2 history.
If he stands down, who's the most likely new candidate?
Betfair latest odds for the DEM nomination
Biden 1.71-1.73 Newsom 6.4-7.0 M Obama 10.5-11 Harris 12-13.6 Whitmer 17.5-28 H Clinton 38-46
And there's the problem. None of those have been tested outside their own states, aside from Hillary who lost, twice. Michelle Obama has never faced a ballot, and while Newsom is the West Wing candidate, there is no evidence his appeal extends across the country and even if it does, he would need to overcome being a White man who will have usurped a Black woman, and that might be enough to cost him victory and if he can't win in November, why appoint him now?
I rate Biden as now a 30% chance (max) of being replaced.
So, above 1.4 on Betfair? I'll buy.
And that threshold diminishes into July, and rapidly in August.
Last night I thought I might have a swarm of bees in the wisteria - popped round to see if it was in their tree. No one in, so had a listen.
N just popped back - not in but their doorbell detected me.
He suggests it was a drone being flown over by an amateur, having had a similar noise and spotted a drone recently. I believe flying over residential is technically legal for sub-250g drones, if socially unwelcome from a privacy standpoint.
Has anyone had this? We are in a close to town centre residential area.
My concerns are criminals doing research, or what we used to call nosey parkers.
It's not unknown round here, particularly on farms. As you observe, it's usually scumbags looking for stuff to steal.
We had one in our back garden and I shot the fucking thing.
I am in the most French place in France. The bar tabac of the little town of Guingamp. It’s full of old men drinking Ricard and beer. The bar woman is sexy in a jolie laide way. The tv screens are showing macron - indifference reigns - or that weird French horse trotting sport - gains a bit more attention. Outside they are having a small pointless parade of antique 2CVs to ironic cheers. Levels of shrugging are off the dial
It’s poor and quite plasticky but also big and bustling. Kids run around as granny drinks cheap red wine. You can have paninis such as “steack cheddar + frites”. Lots of tattoos. The guy in front of me is about 60 and surly yet also somehow cheery and looks like a rubbish Russian mobster and is wearing a World of Warcraft tee shirt
I yearn to know how they are all voting
Not for LREM I imagine
Is that macron’s bunch? Yeah. They don’t feel like Macronistes. Have a look
Its like a poorish but popular pub in a town south of Wrexham
The paradox is that the town itself is another stunner. A magnificent chateau in the middle. Medieval streets. Town walls and beautiful gardens, but the people look quite skint
Last night I thought I might have a swarm of bees in the wisteria - popped round to see if it was in their tree. No one in, so had a listen.
N just popped back - not in but their doorbell detected me.
He suggests it was a drone being flown over by an amateur, having had a similar noise and spotted a drone recently. I believe flying over residential is technically legal for sub-250g drones, if socially unwelcome from a privacy standpoint.
Has anyone had this? We are in a close to town centre residential area.
My concerns are criminals doing research, or what we used to call nosey parkers.
Yes, I had it over my garden at about 100ft last Summer. Drone loitered for a couple of minutes, and then left.
It royally pissed me off. It should definitely be made illegal.
The number of times I've got to the summit of some spectacular mountain and there is some arsehole buzzing about. It's even worse than people who play music out of their rucksacks.
Happily some National Parks in NZ/Australia have a firm ban on them and the rangers are more than happy to bin them.
(In fact, a well funded ranger service with law enforcement powers would be an excellent way for a political party to win back the rural vote.)
Yes, I think Galloway's Party, the Greens and Corbyn and maybe even Reform could take a couple of seats off Labour.
Peter Kellner, former President of Yougov, has now come out with his general election forecast as mentioned last thread which looks very close to 1997 (and indeed 2001) and looks much as I expect it to be too.
Peter Kellner prediction in Sunday Times:
• Labour: 37 per cent of the Britain-wide vote, 400 seats • Conservative: 24 per cent, 155 seats • Liberal Democrats: 13 per cent, 50 seats • Reform UK: 13 per cent, 2 seats • Green: 7 per cent, 2 seats • SNP: 33 per cent in Scotland, 18 seats • Other (including Northern Ireland): 23 seats • Labour majority: 150.
Labour and Tories slightly down on 1997 on voteshare and seats though, LDs slightly up on 1997 on seats but worse on voteshare.
Greens winning seats unlike 1997 and Reform also forecast to win seats which the Referendum Party failed to do then. SNP well down on 2019 but also still more seats than they got in 1997
That feels more right than the polling to me. But maybe my feelz aren't important? Normalcy bias is a strong motivator. Even for those whose job it is.
More in Commons final Welsh poll is bullish on Con The final Wales-only poll by More in Common of the general election campaign shows Labour ending the campaign on a 42 per cent vote share, and the Conservatives falling from 36 per cent of the vote in 2019 to just 22 per cent of the vote ahead of next Thursday’s election.
The full results of the poll were:
Labour - 42% (+1) Conservatives - 22% (-14) Plaid Cymru - 9% (-1) Reform UK - 14% (NEW) Liberal Democrat - 4% (-2) The Green Party - 5% (+4) (+/- figures are differences from 2019 vote share results).
Moreincommon.org.uk
I think they hold Brecon, Montgomery (and lose it on betgate) and Monmouth (just) on those figures
Edit - on UNS they'd also hold Pembrokeshire by my earlier mooted miracle!
One big difference with the 1997 parallel is if the Scots/Welsh polls hold true and the Tories keep seats in every part of the UK. An issue they had from 97-2010 was being the “English Party”.
Btw - another thing to think about for the 2029 election, once this one is over and where we see some Tory leads in 2025, how does English votes for English laws interact with a Tory majority in England and a Labour/coaliton one overall?
Always said Coventry University was a dump like the city, raze it to the ground.
Would never have happened in my day when I chaired Warwick Uni Tories, my final event was a talk by Lord Hurd with sandwiches which is about as far away from this event as you can get!
Anyone singing such a song on my watch would have been out of the Association within 24 hrs.
TSE - Warwick University is actually not in Coventry but just as close to Leamington, Coventry has its own university
Last night I thought I might have a swarm of bees in the wisteria - popped round to see if it was in their tree. No one in, so had a listen.
N just popped back - not in but their doorbell detected me.
He suggests it was a drone being flown over by an amateur, having had a similar noise and spotted a drone recently. I believe flying over residential is technically legal for sub-250g drones, if socially unwelcome from a privacy standpoint.
Has anyone had this? We are in a close to town centre residential area.
My concerns are criminals doing research, or what we used to call nosey parkers.
Yes, I had it over my garden at about 100ft last Summer. Drone loitered for a couple of minutes, and then left.
It royally pissed me off. It should definitely be made illegal.
The number of times I've got to the summit of some spectacular mountain and there is some arsehole buzzing about. It's even worse than people who play music out of their rucksacks.
Happily some National Parks in NZ/Australia have a firm ban on them and the rangers are more than happy to bin them.
(In fact, a well funded ranger service with law enforcement powers would be an excellent way for a political party to win back the rural vote.)
Mildly surprised nobody has blamed the Welsh Government. Things are looking up for rationality.
Yes, I think Galloway's Party, the Greens and Corbyn and maybe even Reform could take a couple of seats off Labour.
Peter Kellner, former President of Yougov, has now come out with his general election forecast as mentioned last thread which looks very close to 1997 (and indeed 2001) and looks much as I expect it to be too.
Peter Kellner prediction in Sunday Times:
• Labour: 37 per cent of the Britain-wide vote, 400 seats • Conservative: 24 per cent, 155 seats • Liberal Democrats: 13 per cent, 50 seats • Reform UK: 13 per cent, 2 seats • Green: 7 per cent, 2 seats • SNP: 33 per cent in Scotland, 18 seats • Other (including Northern Ireland): 23 seats • Labour majority: 150.
Labour and Tories slightly down on 1997 on voteshare and seats though, LDs slightly up on 1997 on seats but worse on voteshare.
Greens winning seats unlike 1997 and Reform also forecast to win seats which the Referendum Party failed to do then. SNP well down on 2019 but also still more seats than they got in 1997
Kellner's percentages are very similar to the ones I posted on here a couple of weeks ago.
Con Gain Bootle is 100/1 whereas in reality it's probably 500/1
Green Gain IoW is *200/1* whereas in reality it's probably 10/1.
IoW could easily go four-way marginal. It's the Greens who are in third there, not the LDs who are nowhere, and Reform could split the Tory vote without Labour gaining much at all.
There's also Waveney Valley and North Herefordshire as plausible Green wins.
Which IoW are we talking about here?
Both seats are likely to be 4 way battles with the winner struggling to get 30%. So could be either.
Which means they are FUCK ME value.
The odds being offered on the Greens in both seats are insane.
Snap it up. Now.
DYOR.
So there's a plausible route to seven Green MPs?
Brighton Pavilion Brighton Kempton and Peacehaven Bristol Central North Herefordshire Waveney Isle of Wight West Isle of Wight East
The Lib Dems won 8 MPs in 2015. Well I never. Course, the Greens could still end up with none.
More in Commons final Welsh poll is bullish on Con The final Wales-only poll by More in Common of the general election campaign shows Labour ending the campaign on a 42 per cent vote share, and the Conservatives falling from 36 per cent of the vote in 2019 to just 22 per cent of the vote ahead of next Thursday’s election.
The full results of the poll were:
Labour - 42% (+1) Conservatives - 22% (-14) Plaid Cymru - 9% (-1) Reform UK - 14% (NEW) Liberal Democrat - 4% (-2) The Green Party - 5% (+4) (+/- figures are differences from 2019 vote share results).
Moreincommon.org.uk
I think they hold Brecon, Montgomery (and lose it on betgate) and Monmouth (just) on those figures
Edit - on UNS they'd also hold Pembrokeshire by my earlier mooted miracle!
I don't believe the LD figure on 4%. They'll get roughly the same as last time.
Last night I thought I might have a swarm of bees in the wisteria - popped round to see if it was in their tree. No one in, so had a listen.
N just popped back - not in but their doorbell detected me.
He suggests it was a drone being flown over by an amateur, having had a similar noise and spotted a drone recently. I believe flying over residential is technically legal for sub-250g drones, if socially unwelcome from a privacy standpoint.
Has anyone had this? We are in a close to town centre residential area.
My concerns are criminals doing research, or what we used to call nosey parkers.
It's not unknown round here, particularly on farms. As you observe, it's usually scumbags looking for stuff to steal.
We had one in our back garden and I shot the fucking thing.
More in Commons final Welsh poll is bullish on Con The final Wales-only poll by More in Common of the general election campaign shows Labour ending the campaign on a 42 per cent vote share, and the Conservatives falling from 36 per cent of the vote in 2019 to just 22 per cent of the vote ahead of next Thursday’s election.
The full results of the poll were:
Labour - 42% (+1) Conservatives - 22% (-14) Plaid Cymru - 9% (-1) Reform UK - 14% (NEW) Liberal Democrat - 4% (-2) The Green Party - 5% (+4) (+/- figures are differences from 2019 vote share results).
Moreincommon.org.uk
I think they hold Brecon, Montgomery (and lose it on betgate) and Monmouth (just) on those figures
Edit - on UNS they'd also hold Pembrokeshire by my earlier mooted miracle!
One big difference with the 1997 parallel is if the Scots/Welsh polls hold true and the Tories keep seats in every part of the UK. An issue they had from 97-2010 was being the “English Party”.
Btw - another thing to think about for the 2029 election, once this one is over and where we see some Tory leads in 2025, how does English votes for English laws interact with a Tory majority in England and a Labour/coaliton one overall?
This is how shit the Tory campaign is that Paul Johnson says that people on average earning their tax burden is lower than anytime in the past 50 years. It is the rich and rich companies who are paying more than either.
The narrative is the opposite. He even said that Hunt made this claims and he didn't believe it, they had to actually check and found it to be true.
Last night I thought I might have a swarm of bees in the wisteria - popped round to see if it was in their tree. No one in, so had a listen.
N just popped back - not in but their doorbell detected me.
He suggests it was a drone being flown over by an amateur, having had a similar noise and spotted a drone recently. I believe flying over residential is technically legal for sub-250g drones, if socially unwelcome from a privacy standpoint.
Has anyone had this? We are in a close to town centre residential area.
My concerns are criminals doing research, or what we used to call nosey parkers.
Yes, I had it over my garden at about 100ft last Summer. Drone loitered for a couple of minutes, and then left.
It royally pissed me off. It should definitely be made illegal.
The number of times I've got to the summit of some spectacular mountain and there is some arsehole buzzing about. It's even worse than people who play music out of their rucksacks.
Happily some National Parks in NZ/Australia have a firm ban on them and the rangers are more than happy to bin them.
(In fact, a well funded ranger service with law enforcement powers would be an excellent way for a political party to win back the rural vote.)
Mildly surprised nobody has blamed the Welsh Government. Things are looking up for rationality.
Would you rather a burglar scouting out your pad or Mark Drakeford reassessing your council tax band?
More in Commons final Welsh poll is bullish on Con The final Wales-only poll by More in Common of the general election campaign shows Labour ending the campaign on a 42 per cent vote share, and the Conservatives falling from 36 per cent of the vote in 2019 to just 22 per cent of the vote ahead of next Thursday’s election.
The full results of the poll were:
Labour - 42% (+1) Conservatives - 22% (-14) Plaid Cymru - 9% (-1) Reform UK - 14% (NEW) Liberal Democrat - 4% (-2) The Green Party - 5% (+4) (+/- figures are differences from 2019 vote share results).
Moreincommon.org.uk
I think they hold Brecon, Montgomery (and lose it on betgate) and Monmouth (just) on those figures
Edit - on UNS they'd also hold Pembrokeshire by my earlier mooted miracle!
I don't believe the LD figure on 4%. They'll get roughly the same as last time.
If Abolish get their act together the LDs could be the 7th party of Wales
Always said Coventry University was a dump like the city, raze it to the ground.
Would never have happened in my day when I chaired Warwick Uni Tories, my final event was a talk by Lord Hurd with sandwiches which is about as far away from this event as you can get!
Anyone singing such a song on my watch would have been out of the Association within 24 hrs.
TSE - Warwick University is actually not in Coventry but just as close to Leamington, Coventry has its own university
Not really these days. The urban sprawl of Coventry is such that there is no "gap" when driving around Coventry from being in what is definitely Coventry and the university e.g. Westwood Heath is a new build estate right next to the university campus and that is classed as a suburb of the City of Coventry.
And besides Kenilworth is closer than Leamington Spa to the university campus if you want to pick another town that is Coventry.
John Redwood offers some clarity on the 'one nation' takeover of the Government (I use inverted commas because Disraeli would have been repulsed by these chumps), and how this election will be the public's verdict on 'one nationism'.
There were discussions with Ministers who decided it was best to run a largely One Nation policy. Ministers argued that the threat to the Conservative party came from Labour and Lib Dems to the left so it was important to move in their direction. They wanted to improve relations with the EU, follow international law as interpreted by internationalists, follow Bank and OBR orthodoxy and regulate more against possible harms. Critics of these views accepted they had lost the internal argument and supported the leadership going into an election.
You are fantastically far from where the Conservative Party needs to be and, indeed, where the nation now is.
In one way it doesn’t bother me if you (pl) headbangers want to fritter away another 10 years in the political wilderness.
On the other hand we’ll need decent Opposition so I hope moderate Conservatives tell you lot, politely, to bog off into your hate-filled right wing lunacy.
Further on Lucky Guy's link to Redwood. This is a lovely and double example of Redwood's use of the motto of St Trinian's : "Get your blow in first". It gives us an interesting outline of the future.
Redwood firstly gets his blow in by pointing out that I won't say I told you so but I did - standard fare.
But he adds that the Tories lost because they governed and stood as the old One Nation Tory party, proving that the phoenix arising from the ashes must be no such thing.
He offers less to the several million centrists who are declining to vote Tory for reasons obscure to him. It isn't because the Tories are too left wing actually.
Presumably they are declining to vote Tory because Labour and the Lib Dems offer identical policies. That is fine and their democratic right. If the empty, utterly discredited centrist notion that we must do things the same way we have for the past 30 years is such an electoral draw, let it present itself as such and allow people to vote for it. It isn't remotely democratic for it to have a stranglehold over the three main parties and therefore to force people with a different view to vote for little more than a change of rosette.
Con Gain Bootle is 100/1 whereas in reality it's probably 500/1
Green Gain IoW is *200/1* whereas in reality it's probably 10/1.
IoW could easily go four-way marginal. It's the Greens who are in third there, not the LDs who are nowhere, and Reform could split the Tory vote without Labour gaining much at all.
There's also Waveney Valley and North Herefordshire as plausible Green wins.
Which IoW are we talking about here?
Both seats are likely to be 4 way battles with the winner struggling to get 30%. So could be either.
Which means they are FUCK ME value.
The odds being offered on the Greens in both seats are insane.
Snap it up. Now.
DYOR.
So there's a plausible route to seven Green MPs?
Brighton Pavilion Brighton Kempton and Peacehaven Bristol Central North Herefordshire Waveney Isle of Wight West Isle of Wight East
The Lib Dems won 8 MPs in 2015. Well I never. Course, the Greens could still end up with none.
I would LOVE to read an Oakeshott column about that result on the Isle of Wight, given her recent implosion on Planning Policy about her proposed glass and steel seafront garden shed in the conservation area to be put between Pier Road, Seaview, IOW and the seashore, and the oppression by the Evilz Progressives:
I am in the most French place in France. The bar tabac of the little town of Guingamp. It’s full of old men drinking Ricard and beer. The bar woman is sexy in a jolie laide way. The tv screens are showing macron - indifference reigns - or that weird French horse trotting sport - gains a bit more attention. Outside they are having a small pointless parade of antique 2CVs to ironic cheers. Levels of shrugging are off the dial
It’s poor and quite plasticky but also big and bustling. Kids run around as granny drinks cheap red wine. You can have paninis such as “steack cheddar + frites”. Lots of tattoos. The guy in front of me is about 60 and surly yet also somehow cheery and looks like a rubbish Russian mobster and is wearing a World of Warcraft tee shirt
I yearn to know how they are all voting
Not for LREM I imagine
Is that macron’s bunch? Yeah. They don’t feel like Macronistes. Have a look
Its like a poorish but popular pub in a town south of Wrexham
The paradox is that the town itself is another stunner. A magnificent chateau in the middle. Medieval streets. Town walls and beautiful gardens, but the people look quite skint
Yer carnt eat Noom, or charm.
It’s fascinating. The town is properly lovely - in almost any other country it would be a tourist honeypot. But France has so many lovely towns some can get neglected or ignored - like here. Tho they still have someone that cares - it’s got nice landscaping and new fountains
Aha! I’ve just found this Le Monde piece on it. Yes - it actually feels abandoned and this is causing a surge in the far right vote
Always said Coventry University was a dump like the city, raze it to the ground.
Would never have happened in my day when I chaired Warwick Uni Tories, my final event was a talk by Lord Hurd with sandwiches which is about as far away from this event as you can get!
Anyone singing such a song on my watch would have been out of the Association within 24 hrs.
TSE - Warwick University is actually not in Coventry but just as close to Leamington, Coventry has its own university
Not really these days. The urban sprawl of Coventry is such that there is no "gap" when driving around Coventry from being in what is definitely Coventry and the university. And besides Kenilworth is closer than Leamington Spa to the university campus if you want to pick another town that is Coventry.
Always said Coventry University was a dump like the city, raze it to the ground.
Would never have happened in my day when I chaired Warwick Uni Tories, my final event was a talk by Lord Hurd with sandwiches which is about as far away from this event as you can get!
Anyone singing such a song on my watch would have been out of the Association within 24 hrs.
TSE - Warwick University is actually not in Coventry but just as close to Leamington, Coventry has its own university
Not really these days. The urban sprawl of Coventry is such that there is no "gap" when driving around Coventry from being in what is definitely Coventry and the university. And besides Kenilworth is closer than Leamington Spa to the university campus if you want to pick another town that is Coventry.
Warwick University campus is half in Coventry and half out. The city boundary goes down Gibbet Hill Road.
Last night I thought I might have a swarm of bees in the wisteria - popped round to see if it was in their tree. No one in, so had a listen.
N just popped back - not in but their doorbell detected me.
He suggests it was a drone being flown over by an amateur, having had a similar noise and spotted a drone recently. I believe flying over residential is technically legal for sub-250g drones, if socially unwelcome from a privacy standpoint.
Has anyone had this? We are in a close to town centre residential area.
My concerns are criminals doing research, or what we used to call nosey parkers.
A drone flying over your house is perfectly legal if it's on the way somewhere, and the operator is following all the guidelines and regs from the CAA. If it's mooching about near your property (say the neighbour is videoing his house), you'd have to prove your neighbour is invading your privacy, as in that case, the operator is not acting illegally. If it's loitering around your house and looking into your garden/windows then that's causing a nuisance. The difficult bit is people believing they own the airspace over their property, when they don't. The Police don't tend to know the rules either.
Always said Coventry University was a dump like the city, raze it to the ground.
Would never have happened in my day when I chaired Warwick Uni Tories, my final event was a talk by Lord Hurd with sandwiches which is about as far away from this event as you can get!
Anyone singing such a song on my watch would have been out of the Association within 24 hrs.
TSE - Warwick University is actually not in Coventry but just as close to Leamington, Coventry has its own university
Not really these days. The urban sprawl of Coventry is such that there is no "gap" when driving around Coventry from being in what is definitely Coventry and the university. And besides Kenilworth is closer than Leamington Spa to the university campus if you want to pick another town that is Coventry.
Warwick University campus is half in Coventry and half out. The city boundary goes down Gibbet Hill Road.
I don't think that's true anymore. Westwood Heath is to the West of Gilbert hill road and is classed as a suburb of Coventry.
Trouble is, I've helped the Greens in one of their top target seats, and their ground campaign or even basic understanding of what they are supposed to be doing is pitifully shambolic, which doesn't inspire confidence in their wider prospects. At least with the LibDems we can be confident that in their top targets it's going to be well organised and professional on the ground, right through to close of poll.
I'm involved in the Labour effort in Didcot and Wantage, which is supposedly a LibDem target, and unofficially a Labour target too. The LibDem effort is overwhelmingly in delivering leaflets - up to 4 different ones on the same day to the same household. They are certainly much larger in number than the Labour leaflets, and the Tories are barely trying in leaflets although it's a solid Tory seat. Labour and LibDems are roughly competitive in number of posters, with zero Tories and a couple of Reform.
The LibDems could win, but I'm not impressed by the professionalism. If you get 1 leaflet you might read it. If you get 4 from the same source on the same day, the impression is that someone is trying to fulfil a quota, and you certainly don't read them unless you're very obsessive. More to the point, I'd argue that you're less likely to take the campaign seriously - but I could be wrong? The evident calculation is that floating anti-Tory voters take the delivery of 4 leaflets in a day as a sign that the party is really keen.
I don't understand Nick Palmer's thinking at all. Here we are, with the Labour Party on the point of winning an enormous majority of seats in Parliament. And yet he seems to begrudge any other party trying to take a seat off the Tories.
The Tory line currently is that you need a strong opposition to keep the next Labour government honest. I would have though that a good number of Lib Dem MPs would help to keep the Labour Party honest, in the right kind of way. And that means Lib Dem candidates winning hitherto Conservative seats.
Always said Coventry University was a dump like the city, raze it to the ground.
Would never have happened in my day when I chaired Warwick Uni Tories, my final event was a talk by Lord Hurd with sandwiches which is about as far away from this event as you can get!
Anyone singing such a song on my watch would have been out of the Association within 24 hrs.
TSE - Warwick University is actually not in Coventry but just as close to Leamington, Coventry has its own university
Not really these days. The urban sprawl of Coventry is such that there is no "gap" when driving around Coventry from being in what is definitely Coventry and the university. And besides Kenilworth is closer than Leamington Spa to the university campus if you want to pick another town that is Coventry.
It is still not Coventry University though
I didn't say it was, I just said it isn't true anymore about not being in Coventry. The urban sprawl has meant suburbs now filled in the gap and growth past westward.
Further on Lucky Guy's link to Redwood. This is a lovely and double example of Redwood's use of the motto of St Trinian's : "Get your blow in first". It gives us an interesting outline of the future.
Redwood firstly gets his blow in by pointing out that I won't say I told you so but I did - standard fare.
But he adds that the Tories lost because they governed and stood as the old One Nation Tory party, proving that the phoenix arising from the ashes must be no such thing.
He offers less to the several million centrists who are declining to vote Tory for reasons obscure to him. It isn't because the Tories are too left wing actually.
Eh?
The One Nation Tories won an election.
The batshit Brexit Tories he supports are about to face an ELE
And his answer is "more batshit"...
Quite!
I expect them to go further down the rabbit hole until the next GE defeat.
Remember, last time it took them three failed leaders and eight years before they chose an electable leader, having gone right wing, batshit crazy, right wing, before they chose Cameron.
Trouble is, I've helped the Greens in one of their top target seats, and their ground campaign or even basic understanding of what they are supposed to be doing is pitifully shambolic, which doesn't inspire confidence in their wider prospects. At least with the LibDems we can be confident that in their top targets it's going to be well organised and professional on the ground, right through to close of poll.
I'm involved in the Labour effort in Didcot and Wantage, which is supposedly a LibDem target, and unofficially a Labour target too. The LibDem effort is overwhelmingly in delivering leaflets - up to 4 different ones on the same day to the same household. They are certainly much larger in number than the Labour leaflets, and the Tories are barely trying in leaflets although it's a solid Tory seat. Labour and LibDems are roughly competitive in number of posters, with zero Tories and a couple of Reform.
The LibDems could win, but I'm not impressed by the professionalism. If you get 1 leaflet you might read it. If you get 4 from the same source on the same day, the impression is that someone is trying to fulfil a quota, and you certainly don't read them unless you're very obsessive. More to the point, I'd argue that you're less likely to take the campaign seriously - but I could be wrong? The evident calculation is that floating anti-Tory voters take the delivery of 4 leaflets in a day as a sign that the party is really keen.
FWIW we've now had more than 10 Labour leaflets here in the Banbury constituency, over on the other side of the county. If excess leafleting is counter-productive, you might want to tell Sean Woodcock that.
(We also got canvassed for the first time yesterday despite displaying a LibDem diamond in the window, which suggests that the squeeze operation is underway.)
A household may have 2 or more people in it. Just because one person’s put up a poster, doesn’t mean the other person is going to vote the same way, so still worth canvassing.
Last night I thought I might have a swarm of bees in the wisteria - popped round to see if it was in their tree. No one in, so had a listen.
N just popped back - not in but their doorbell detected me.
He suggests it was a drone being flown over by an amateur, having had a similar noise and spotted a drone recently. I believe flying over residential is technically legal for sub-250g drones, if socially unwelcome from a privacy standpoint.
Has anyone had this? We are in a close to town centre residential area.
My concerns are criminals doing research, or what we used to call nosey parkers.
Yes, I had it over my garden at about 100ft last Summer. Drone loitered for a couple of minutes, and then left.
It royally pissed me off. It should definitely be made illegal.
If they made crime illegal then criminals would not use drones for research, and they'd still be OK to survey roofs without spending a couple of grand on scaffolding.
Always said Coventry University was a dump like the city, raze it to the ground.
Would never have happened in my day when I chaired Warwick Uni Tories, my final event was a talk by Lord Hurd with sandwiches which is about as far away from this event as you can get!
Anyone singing such a song on my watch would have been out of the Association within 24 hrs.
TSE - Warwick University is actually not in Coventry but just as close to Leamington, Coventry has its own university
Not really these days. The urban sprawl of Coventry is such that there is no "gap" when driving around Coventry from being in what is definitely Coventry and the university. And besides Kenilworth is closer than Leamington Spa to the university campus if you want to pick another town that is Coventry.
Warwick University campus is half in Coventry and half out. The city boundary goes down Gibbet Hill Road.
I don't think that's true anymore. Westwood Heath is to the West of Gilbert hill road and is classed as a suburb of Coventry.
This is how shit the Tory campaign is that Paul Johnson says that people on average earning their tax burden is lower than anytime in the past 50 years. It is the rich and rich companies who are paying more than either.
The narrative is the opposite. He even said that Hunt made this claims and he didn't believe it, they had to actually check and found it to be true.
Truly astonishing. Spreadsheet Rishi no good at spreadsheets even. How can a former chancellor not have known this? It would have blown the debate wide open if he had gone with this not the £2000 lie
I am in the most French place in France. The bar tabac of the little town of Guingamp. It’s full of old men drinking Ricard and beer. The bar woman is sexy in a jolie laide way. The tv screens are showing macron - indifference reigns - or that weird French horse trotting sport - gains a bit more attention. Outside they are having a small pointless parade of antique 2CVs to ironic cheers. Levels of shrugging are off the dial
It’s poor and quite plasticky but also big and bustling. Kids run around as granny drinks cheap red wine. You can have paninis such as “steack cheddar + frites”. Lots of tattoos. The guy in front of me is about 60 and surly yet also somehow cheery and looks like a rubbish Russian mobster and is wearing a World of Warcraft tee shirt
I yearn to know how they are all voting
Not for LREM I imagine
Is that macron’s bunch? Yeah. They don’t feel like Macronistes. Have a look
Its like a poorish but popular pub in a town south of Wrexham
The paradox is that the town itself is another stunner. A magnificent chateau in the middle. Medieval streets. Town walls and beautiful gardens, but the people look quite skint
Yer carnt eat Noom, or charm.
It’s fascinating. The town is properly lovely - in almost any other country it would be a tourist honeypot. But France has so many lovely towns some can get neglected or ignored - like here. Tho they still have someone that cares - it’s got nice landscaping and new fountains
Aha! I’ve just found this Le Monde piece on it. Yes - it actually feels abandoned and this is causing a surge in the far right vote
Surprised anything is open on a sunday though!!! My experience of many french small towns is the place is utterly dead on a sunday - but I may be way out of date: it is at least twelve years since I was last there.
Always said Coventry University was a dump like the city, raze it to the ground.
Would never have happened in my day when I chaired Warwick Uni Tories, my final event was a talk by Lord Hurd with sandwiches which is about as far away from this event as you can get!
Anyone singing such a song on my watch would have been out of the Association within 24 hrs.
TSE - Warwick University is actually not in Coventry but just as close to Leamington, Coventry has its own university
Not really these days. The urban sprawl of Coventry is such that there is no "gap" when driving around Coventry from being in what is definitely Coventry and the university. And besides Kenilworth is closer than Leamington Spa to the university campus if you want to pick another town that is Coventry.
Warwick University campus is half in Coventry and half out. The city boundary goes down Gibbet Hill Road.
I don't think that's true anymore. Westwood Heath is to the West of Gilbert hill road and is classed as a suburb of Coventry.
Always said Coventry University was a dump like the city, raze it to the ground.
Would never have happened in my day when I chaired Warwick Uni Tories, my final event was a talk by Lord Hurd with sandwiches which is about as far away from this event as you can get!
Anyone singing such a song on my watch would have been out of the Association within 24 hrs.
TSE - Warwick University is actually not in Coventry but just as close to Leamington, Coventry has its own university
Not really these days. The urban sprawl of Coventry is such that there is no "gap" when driving around Coventry from being in what is definitely Coventry and the university e.g. Westwood Heath is a new build estate right next to the university campus and that is classed as a suburb of the City of Coventry.
And besides Kenilworth is closer than Leamington Spa to the university campus if you want to pick another town that is Coventry.
Last night I thought I might have a swarm of bees in the wisteria - popped round to see if it was in their tree. No one in, so had a listen.
N just popped back - not in but their doorbell detected me.
He suggests it was a drone being flown over by an amateur, having had a similar noise and spotted a drone recently. I believe flying over residential is technically legal for sub-250g drones, if socially unwelcome from a privacy standpoint.
Has anyone had this? We are in a close to town centre residential area.
My concerns are criminals doing research, or what we used to call nosey parkers.
Yes, I had it over my garden at about 100ft last Summer. Drone loitered for a couple of minutes, and then left.
It royally pissed me off. It should definitely be made illegal.
Always said Coventry University was a dump like the city, raze it to the ground.
Would never have happened in my day when I chaired Warwick Uni Tories, my final event was a talk by Lord Hurd with sandwiches which is about as far away from this event as you can get!
Anyone singing such a song on my watch would have been out of the Association within 24 hrs.
TSE - Warwick University is actually not in Coventry but just as close to Leamington, Coventry has its own university
Not really these days. The urban sprawl of Coventry is such that there is no "gap" when driving around Coventry from being in what is definitely Coventry and the university e.g. Westwood Heath is a new build estate right next to the university campus and that is classed as a suburb of the City of Coventry.
And besides Kenilworth is closer than Leamington Spa to the university campus if you want to pick another town that is Coventry.
Last night I thought I might have a swarm of bees in the wisteria - popped round to see if it was in their tree. No one in, so had a listen.
N just popped back - not in but their doorbell detected me.
He suggests it was a drone being flown over by an amateur, having had a similar noise and spotted a drone recently. I believe flying over residential is technically legal for sub-250g drones, if socially unwelcome from a privacy standpoint.
Has anyone had this? We are in a close to town centre residential area.
My concerns are criminals doing research, or what we used to call nosey parkers.
Yes, I had it over my garden at about 100ft last Summer. Drone loitered for a couple of minutes, and then left.
It royally pissed me off. It should definitely be made illegal.
Get a rifle
Shooting the drone down will get you into far more trouble than the drone pilot.
Last night I thought I might have a swarm of bees in the wisteria - popped round to see if it was in their tree. No one in, so had a listen.
N just popped back - not in but their doorbell detected me.
He suggests it was a drone being flown over by an amateur, having had a similar noise and spotted a drone recently. I believe flying over residential is technically legal for sub-250g drones, if socially unwelcome from a privacy standpoint.
Has anyone had this? We are in a close to town centre residential area.
My concerns are criminals doing research, or what we used to call nosey parkers.
Yes, I had it over my garden at about 100ft last Summer. Drone loitered for a couple of minutes, and then left.
It royally pissed me off. It should definitely be made illegal.
The number of times I've got to the summit of some spectacular mountain and there is some arsehole buzzing about. It's even worse than people who play music out of their rucksacks.
Happily some National Parks in NZ/Australia have a firm ban on them and the rangers are more than happy to bin them.
(In fact, a well funded ranger service with law enforcement powers would be an excellent way for a political party to win back the rural vote.)
Mildly surprised nobody has blamed the Welsh Government. Things are looking up for rationality.
Would you rather a burglar scouting out your pad or Mark Drakeford reassessing your council tax band?
Close call tbf.
I think I would rather a limitation on amateur flown drones over residential areas to apply down to a mass of zero grams. The could be "no flights within 50m of residential property without an appropriate drone piloting license."
TBF the training is not difficult, but it does draw the line in a more sensible place and puts a limit on casual flights.
This is how shit the Tory campaign is that Paul Johnson says that people on average earning their tax burden is lower than anytime in the past 50 years. It is the rich and rich companies who are paying more than either.
The narrative is the opposite. He even said that Hunt made this claims and he didn't believe it, they had to actually check and found it to be true.
Truly astonishing. Spreadsheet Rishi no good at spreadsheets even. How can a former chancellor not have known this? It would have blown the debate wide open if he had gone with this not the £2000 lie
They really are true amateurs. Absolutely nobody thinks this is true, but it is, lowest direct tax burden for people on average income for 50 years.....and that the rich and rich companies are being soaked. Paul Johnson says corporation rate income is highest ever. I mean its no wonder all the millionaire have been leaving (down 6% in the past few years and increasing rate of them leaving), but that's a different matter.
This is how shit the Tory campaign is that Paul Johnson says that people on average earning their tax burden is lower than anytime in the past 50 years. It is the rich and rich companies who are paying more than either.
The narrative is the opposite. He even said that Hunt made this claims and he didn't believe it, they had to actually check and found it to be true.
Truly astonishing. Spreadsheet Rishi no good at spreadsheets even. How can a former chancellor not have known this? It would have blown the debate wide open if he had gone with this not the £2000 lie
It's not really true though. People are feeling the tax burden through energy costs which are hugely made up by tax.
Comments
I expect them to go further down the rabbit hole until the next GE defeat.
I reckon for various reasons it is 50:50, perhaps 60:40, that Labour will increase their majority in 2028/9.
There. I’ve said it.
🆕 Our final @Moreincommon_ Scottish voting intention of the election finds Labour lead the SNP by 5.
🔴LAB 35% (+16)
🟡SNP 30% (-15)
🔵CON 16% (-9)
🟠LIB DEM 9% (-1)
🟣REF UK 7% (NEW)
🟢GRN 2% (+1)
Changes with 2019, N=1008, 24-28/6 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/general-electi…
For the first time in a long time, the adults are back in charge.
I think the Con / RefUK split makes it hard to find value in this market, because there's no real precedent and a strong RefUK showing could cost the Conservatives almost all their seats without winning any themselves, whereas a couple of points less for the RefUKers could see the Conservatives coasting 150 seats plus.
Because I'm green thanks to the Jan 2022 bet, I still have a decent amount of money in the tank for bets on the night. PB has always been an awesome source of tips, I've usually made more from bets on the night than on bets placed during the campaign. Andy_JS's spreadsheet and Alistair's tip on SNP seats spring to mind.
Everyone we tested has approval ratings underwater in Scotland, but the most striking shift is John Swinney who in our first poll of the campaign had a net approval of -2 but is now at -15, suggesting a very short honeymoon period for the First Minister
https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1807369964921249801/photo/1
The odds being offered on the Greens in both seats are insane.
Snap it up. Now.
DYOR.
Most house will only get one at a time most of the time, but are bound to get 2 in a day occasionally. To get more will be rare but will happen.
It is nothing to do with lack of professionalism. It can't be avoided to occasionally happen if you deliver frequently by different sources.
It’s poor and quite plasticky but also big and bustling. Kids run around as granny drinks cheap red wine. You can have paninis such as “steack cheddar + frites”. Lots of tattoos. The guy in front of me is about 60 and surly yet also somehow cheery and looks like a rubbish Russian mobster and is wearing a World of Warcraft tee shirt
I yearn to know how they are all voting
After Falkirk yesterday (SNP majority 15,000), on the last sunday before polling day John Swinney is campaigning in North Ayrshire and Arran, a seat with an 11,000 majority. Blimey, their internal numbers must be grim indeed.
One is this. justify getting a victory/landslide on, say, 36% of the vote or even less.
To do that you have to look collectively. The public are not fools. Party X on 36% will not win (let's ignore mathematical unlikelihoods) if party Y has 48 or even 42%. But it can win a landslide if party Y gets 18% (today this is a real world possibility).
The non-foolish public could easily stop Labour winning if they wanted. You coalesce around the party or combination that beats their 36%, using tactical voting.
It is overwhelmingly obvious that almost no-one is voting Tory tactically. Talk to people! Obvious that those voting LD, Green, even SNP etc , and even Reform too, are doing so with a mind to removing a Tory government. If current tactics were nor enough, a movement would have arisen to make sure it still happened. FPTP is basically a brilliant system.
Only about 20% of voters will vote to keep the present government. That justifies a landslide.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P7WrbNyj-XY
Would mean you look at their "literature" every day in the run up to the election.
1. Yes because he's a socialist and reasons AND IT'S NOT FAIR WAAAH.
2. No because the wise and benevolent Rishi Sunak has already sorted it and reasons AND IT'S NOT FAIR WAAAH.
(We also got canvassed for the first time yesterday despite displaying a LibDem diamond in the window, which suggests that the squeeze operation is underway.)
After that, with Streeting PM and Forbes getting independence, Selwyn College rules.
I would indeed be ironic if this is the twat that triggered Leon's mis-memory of lefty Rmeainers expecting a hung parliament.
Last night I thought I might have a swarm of bees in the wisteria - popped round to see if it was in their tree. No one in, so had a listen.
N just popped back - not in but their doorbell detected me.
He suggests it was a drone being flown over by an amateur, having had a similar noise and spotted a drone recently. I believe flying over residential is technically legal for sub-250g drones, if socially unwelcome from a privacy standpoint.
Has anyone had this? We are in a close to town centre residential area.
My concerns are criminals doing research, or what we used to call nosey parkers.
Last time I looked Priti was about 3% ahead of the Labour candidate who, although she hasn't impressed at the hustings I've attended or heard about is supposed to be a very pleasant lady, and an efficient and effective local councillor.
I wonder, I wonder.
(I briefly thought I was a genius)
Peter Kellner, former President of Yougov, has now come out with his general election forecast as mentioned last thread which looks very close to 1997 (and indeed 2001) and looks much as I expect it to be too.
Peter Kellner prediction in Sunday Times:
• Labour: 37 per cent of the Britain-wide vote, 400 seats
• Conservative: 24 per cent, 155 seats
• Liberal Democrats: 13 per cent, 50 seats
• Reform UK: 13 per cent, 2 seats
• Green: 7 per cent, 2 seats
• SNP: 33 per cent in Scotland, 18 seats
• Other (including Northern Ireland): 23 seats
• Labour majority: 150.
Labour and Tories slightly down on 1997 on voteshare and seats though, LDs slightly up on 1997 on seats but worse on voteshare.
Greens winning seats unlike 1997 and Reform also forecast to win seats which the Referendum Party failed to do then. SNP well down on 2019 but also still more seats than they got in 1997
Its like a poorish but popular pub in a town south of Wrexham
The paradox is that the town itself is another stunner. A magnificent chateau in the middle. Medieval streets. Town walls and beautiful gardens, but the people look quite skint
2015 had a promise of an EU referendum. Would they have got a majority without it? And 2019 was all about getting Brexit done.
It royally pissed me off. It should definitely be made illegal.
The final Wales-only poll by More in Common of the general election campaign shows Labour ending the campaign on a 42 per cent vote share, and the Conservatives falling from 36 per cent of the vote in 2019 to just 22 per cent of the vote ahead of next Thursday’s election.
The full results of the poll were:
Labour - 42% (+1)
Conservatives - 22% (-14)
Plaid Cymru - 9% (-1)
Reform UK - 14% (NEW)
Liberal Democrat - 4% (-2)
The Green Party - 5% (+4)
(+/- figures are differences from 2019 vote share results).
Moreincommon.org.uk
I think they hold Brecon, Montgomery (and lose it on betgate) and Monmouth (just) on those figures
Edit - on UNS they'd also hold Pembrokeshire by my earlier mooted miracle!
Newsom would be a massive target for Trump: “Make America California Again”, accompanied by many images of riots and homelessness - except for the day Xi Jinping turned up, when suddenly the streets were made clear for 48 hours.
Secretly, you are worried you are about to make the wrong decision, and might be a fool yourself to do it.
It's not too late. You don't have to do it.
The only real pride is obstinacy.
So it's possible that when Starmer and Labour face re-election as incumbents in 2028/9, that they will increase their support from the oldies, the rest of the electorate will retain their aversion to voting Tory, and so Labour will increase their majority.
I wouldn't predict this happening myself, but I think it's a plausible hypothesis to keep an eye on.
Trump's sentencing Thursday week next significant event
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/
The building is a tour de force - as good as any of the Medieval cathedrals, excepting there is not the long historical narrative preserved in the building itself, though there are many, many echoes.
It's also the perfect tourist destination in between London or Canterbury and York Minster, plus the WW2 history.
So, above 1.4 on Betfair? I'll buy.
And that threshold diminishes into July, and rapidly in August.
We had one in our back garden and I shot the fucking thing.
Happily some National Parks in NZ/Australia have a firm ban on them and the rangers are more than happy to bin them.
(In fact, a well funded ranger service with law enforcement powers would be an excellent way for a political party to win back the rural vote.)
But maybe my feelz aren't important?
Normalcy bias is a strong motivator. Even for those whose job it is.
Btw - another thing to think about for the 2029 election, once this one is over and where we see some Tory leads in 2025, how does English votes for English laws interact with a Tory majority in England and a Labour/coaliton one overall?
Anyone singing such a song on my watch would have been out of the Association within 24 hrs.
TSE - Warwick University is actually not in Coventry but just as close to Leamington, Coventry has its own university
Brighton Pavilion
Brighton Kempton and Peacehaven
Bristol Central
North Herefordshire
Waveney
Isle of Wight West
Isle of Wight East
The Lib Dems won 8 MPs in 2015. Well I never. Course, the Greens could still end up with none.
This will help to understand the current battlefield.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qi4wLfsSScE
This is how shit the Tory campaign is that Paul Johnson says that people on average earning their tax burden is lower than anytime in the past 50 years. It is the rich and rich companies who are paying more than either.
The narrative is the opposite. He even said that Hunt made this claims and he didn't believe it, they had to actually check and found it to be true.
Close call tbf.
And besides Kenilworth is closer than Leamington Spa to the university campus if you want to pick another town that is Coventry.
https://news.sky.com/story/you-wouldnt-believe-the-amount-of-dicks-secrets-of-a-ballot-counter-13151941
https://archive.ph/L9WU8
Aha! I’ve just found this Le Monde piece on it. Yes - it actually feels abandoned and this is causing a surge in the far right vote
https://www.lemonde.fr/en/france/article/2023/03/21/in-brittany-an-abandoned-town-fumes-at-macron-s-pension-reform_6020211_7.html
They are all voting Le Pen
lol. I sometimes think the voters of France need to do a quick tour of Scotland’s coal belt or South Yorkshire or the Potteries
Then they will learn what abandoned towns REALLY look like. They don’t look like THIS
https://www.brittanytourism.com/destinations/the-10-destinations/saint-brieuc-bay-paimpol-les-caps/guingamp/
If it's loitering around your house and looking into your garden/windows then that's causing a nuisance.
The difficult bit is people believing they own the airspace over their property, when they don't. The Police don't tend to know the rules either.
The Tory line currently is that you need a strong opposition to keep the next Labour government honest. I would have though that a good number of Lib Dem MPs would help to keep the Labour Party honest, in the right kind of way. And that means Lib Dem candidates winning hitherto Conservative seats.
Why is the Labour Party so greedy?
https://www.coventry.ac.uk/cul/life-at-cul/the-campus/
TBF the training is not difficult, but it does draw the line in a more sensible place and puts a limit on casual flights.