Yes, I think Galloway's Party, the Greens and Corbyn and maybe even Reform could take a couple of seats off Labour.
Peter Kellner, former President of Yougov, has now come out with his general election forecast as mentioned last thread which looks very close to 1997 (and indeed 2001) and looks much as I expect it to be too.
Peter Kellner prediction in Sunday Times:
• Labour: 37 per cent of the Britain-wide vote, 400 seats • Conservative: 24 per cent, 155 seats • Liberal Democrats: 13 per cent, 50 seats • Reform UK: 13 per cent, 2 seats • Green: 7 per cent, 2 seats • SNP: 33 per cent in Scotland, 18 seats • Other (including Northern Ireland): 23 seats • Labour majority: 150.
Labour and Tories slightly down on 1997 on voteshare and seats though, LDs slightly up on 1997 on seats but worse on voteshare.
Greens winning seats unlike 1997 and Reform also forecast to win seats which the Referendum Party failed to do then. SNP well down on 2019 but also still more seats than they got in 1997
That feels more right than the polling to me. But maybe my feelz aren't important? Normalcy bias is a strong motivator. Even for those whose job it is.
Kellner's figures not far off the latest Yougov, except Tories a bit higher and Reform a bit lower
This is how shit the Tory campaign is that Paul Johnson says that people on average earning their tax burden is lower than anytime in the past 50 years. It is the rich and rich companies who are paying more than either.
The narrative is the opposite. He even said that Hunt made this claims and he didn't believe it, they had to actually check and found it to be true.
Minimum wage (£5.80 to £11.44) and personal allowance (£6,475 to £12,570) have gone up by a huge amount since 2010. Even taking inflation into account both are up by 30%. Objectively the poorest workers earn more and pay less tax, maybe still not as much as they should, but definitely a lot better off than in 2010.
It's like the pandemic and energy crisis, there are a huge number of people who seem to think "the government did nothing for me", when in reality the government has borrowed vast sums of money to subsidise wages, pay grants directly, and subisidise energy costs.
Anyone thinking Labour is about to turn the taps on is likely to be very disappointed, the direction of travel is for higher taxes simply to balance the books as they are.
You would think the Tories might want to highlight this as part of their campaign....instead of taking all the oxygen out of their campaign with National Service bollocks and arguing over if women can have a penis.
The furlough scheme went on too long and as a result cost too much money, but Sunak would easily point to that as a very successful approach that saved millions of jobs. The media can hardly say but but but it went on too long, because any suggestion it was going to finish, they scream blue murder about it ending while there was still covid cases.
This is how shit the Tory campaign is that Paul Johnson says that people on average earning their tax burden is lower than anytime in the past 50 years. It is the rich and rich companies who are paying more than either.
The narrative is the opposite. He even said that Hunt made this claims and he didn't believe it, they had to actually check and found it to be true.
Truly astonishing. Spreadsheet Rishi no good at spreadsheets even. How can a former chancellor not have known this? It would have blown the debate wide open if he had gone with this not the £2000 lie
It's not really true though. People are feeling the tax burden through energy costs which are hugely made up by tax.
It's as true as 360m a week to the EU, and truer than the lab 2000 tax grab.
Last night I thought I might have a swarm of bees in the wisteria - popped round to see if it was in their tree. No one in, so had a listen.
N just popped back - not in but their doorbell detected me.
He suggests it was a drone being flown over by an amateur, having had a similar noise and spotted a drone recently. I believe flying over residential is technically legal for sub-250g drones, if socially unwelcome from a privacy standpoint.
Has anyone had this? We are in a close to town centre residential area.
My concerns are criminals doing research, or what we used to call nosey parkers.
A drone flying over your house is perfectly legal if it's on the way somewhere, and the operator is following all the guidelines and regs from the CAA. If it's mooching about near your property (say the neighbour is videoing his house), you'd have to prove your neighbour is invading your privacy, as in that case, the operator is not acting illegally. If it's loitering around your house and looking into your garden/windows then that's causing a nuisance. The difficult bit is people believing they own the airspace over their property, when they don't. The Police don't tend to know the rules either.
Indeed. The best way to avoid ever seeing a drone over your house, is to buy a house right next to the airport.
You just have to put up with the slight inconvenience of your house shaking to bits 24/7....
Last night I thought I might have a swarm of bees in the wisteria - popped round to see if it was in their tree. No one in, so had a listen.
N just popped back - not in but their doorbell detected me.
He suggests it was a drone being flown over by an amateur, having had a similar noise and spotted a drone recently. I believe flying over residential is technically legal for sub-250g drones, if socially unwelcome from a privacy standpoint.
Has anyone had this? We are in a close to town centre residential area.
My concerns are criminals doing research, or what we used to call nosey parkers.
Yes, I had it over my garden at about 100ft last Summer. Drone loitered for a couple of minutes, and then left.
It royally pissed me off. It should definitely be made illegal.
Last night I thought I might have a swarm of bees in the wisteria - popped round to see if it was in their tree. No one in, so had a listen.
N just popped back - not in but their doorbell detected me.
He suggests it was a drone being flown over by an amateur, having had a similar noise and spotted a drone recently. I believe flying over residential is technically legal for sub-250g drones, if socially unwelcome from a privacy standpoint.
Has anyone had this? We are in a close to town centre residential area.
My concerns are criminals doing research, or what we used to call nosey parkers.
Yes, I had it over my garden at about 100ft last Summer. Drone loitered for a couple of minutes, and then left.
It royally pissed me off. It should definitely be made illegal.
Get a rifle
Shooting the drone down will get you into far more trouble than the drone pilot.
I would have thought that shooting the drone pilot would get you into more trouble than shooting the drone.
MiC final Scotland call, Wales to follow 🆕 Our final @Moreincommon_ Scottish voting intention of the election finds Labour lead the SNP by 5. 🔴LAB 35% (+16) 🟡SNP 30% (-15) 🔵CON 16% (-9) 🟠LIB DEM 9% (-1) 🟣REF UK 7% (NEW) 🟢GRN 2% (+1) Changes with 2019, N=1008, 24-28/6 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/general-electi…
SNP to Con swing there.
I don't think that Reform will get 7% in Scotland. Also they will do better in eastern England than the polls are showing
This is how shit the Tory campaign is that Paul Johnson says that people on average earning their tax burden is lower than anytime in the past 50 years. It is the rich and rich companies who are paying more than either.
The narrative is the opposite. He even said that Hunt made this claims and he didn't believe it, they had to actually check and found it to be true.
Minimum wage (£5.80 to £11.44) and personal allowance (£6,475 to £12,570) have gone up by a huge amount since 2010. Even taking inflation into account both are up by 30%. Objectively the poorest workers earn more and pay less tax, maybe still not as much as they should, but definitely a lot better off than in 2010.
It's like the pandemic and energy crisis, there are a huge number of people who seem to think "the government did nothing for me", when in reality the government has borrowed vast sums of money to subsidise wages, pay grants directly, and subisidise energy costs.
Anyone thinking Labour is about to turn the taps on is likely to be very disappointed, the direction of travel is for higher taxes simply to balance the books as they are.
The personal allowance rose from £6475 to £10,000 in 2010. Since then its not kept up anywhere near to inflation or wages.
You would think the Tories might want to highlight this as part of their campaign....instead of taking all the oxygen out of their campaign with National Service bollocks and arguing over if women can have a penis.
The furlough scheme went on too long and as a result cost too much money, but Sunak would easily point to that as a very successful approach that saved millions of jobs. The media can hardly say but but but it went on too long, because any suggestion it was going to finish, they scream blue murder about it ending while there was still covid cases.
Sunak has no political sense at all.
It's going to be a shock for the millions of people who think "the government did nothing for me" when Labour win and don't start throwing around the billions the way the Tories did, but instead start clawing it back through indirect taxation and fiscal drag.
Last night I thought I might have a swarm of bees in the wisteria - popped round to see if it was in their tree. No one in, so had a listen.
N just popped back - not in but their doorbell detected me.
He suggests it was a drone being flown over by an amateur, having had a similar noise and spotted a drone recently. I believe flying over residential is technically legal for sub-250g drones, if socially unwelcome from a privacy standpoint.
Has anyone had this? We are in a close to town centre residential area.
My concerns are criminals doing research, or what we used to call nosey parkers.
Yes, I had it over my garden at about 100ft last Summer. Drone loitered for a couple of minutes, and then left.
It royally pissed me off. It should definitely be made illegal.
Get a rifle
No. A shotgun. If you can hit a grouse...
I used an Adler A110, #5 steel shot. I'd never shoot a bird but have an insta-kill policy on drones.
This is how shit the Tory campaign is that Paul Johnson says that people on average earning their tax burden is lower than anytime in the past 50 years. It is the rich and rich companies who are paying more than either.
The narrative is the opposite. He even said that Hunt made this claims and he didn't believe it, they had to actually check and found it to be true.
Truly astonishing. Spreadsheet Rishi no good at spreadsheets even. How can a former chancellor not have known this? It would have blown the debate wide open if he had gone with this not the £2000 lie
Jeremy Hunt said as much in his budget speech so it is not a new claim.
I am in the most French place in France. The bar tabac of the little town of Guingamp. It’s full of old men drinking Ricard and beer. The bar woman is sexy in a jolie laide way. The tv screens are showing macron - indifference reigns - or that weird French horse trotting sport - gains a bit more attention. Outside they are having a small pointless parade of antique 2CVs to ironic cheers. Levels of shrugging are off the dial
It’s poor and quite plasticky but also big and bustling. Kids run around as granny drinks cheap red wine. You can have paninis such as “steack cheddar + frites”. Lots of tattoos. The guy in front of me is about 60 and surly yet also somehow cheery and looks like a rubbish Russian mobster and is wearing a World of Warcraft tee shirt
I yearn to know how they are all voting
Not for LREM I imagine
Is that macron’s bunch? Yeah. They don’t feel like Macronistes. Have a look
Its like a poorish but popular pub in a town south of Wrexham
The paradox is that the town itself is another stunner. A magnificent chateau in the middle. Medieval streets. Town walls and beautiful gardens, but the people look quite skint
You would think the Tories might want to highlight this as part of their campaign....instead of taking all the oxygen out of their campaign with National Service bollocks and arguing over if women can have a penis.
The furlough scheme went on too long and as a result cost too much money, but Sunak would easily point to that as a very successful approach that saved millions of jobs. The media can hardly say but but but it went on too long, because any suggestion it was going to finish, they scream blue murder about it ending while there was still covid cases.
Sunak has no political sense at all.
It's going to be a shock for the millions of people who think "the government did nothing for me" when Labour win and don't start throwing around the billions the way the Tories did, but instead start clawing it back through indirect taxation and fiscal drag.
I was having a drink with some teacher friends of mine a couple of weeks ago and they are obviously very keen for Labour to get back in power and said budgets are tight in their schools and be glad to get a lot more funding from new government. I did have to say, you know the big Labour promise on schools is 1500 more teacher per year, that's the big offer. And they basically said, well it looks like we will be striking again then.
It’s like someone took 10,000 people from Liverpool and dropped them in Verona, but forced them all to speak French
Idea: the French government should sell this hakf of Brittany to the Remainery British. Lots of wealthy Brits would love to live in a beautiful stone-built town half an hour from a spectacular coast
They’d soon fill it with yoga studios and thriving gastropubs
Jeez I just walked past a shitty car full of 20-somethings openly doing hard drugs. Smack I think
This is how shit the Tory campaign is that Paul Johnson says that people on average earning their tax burden is lower than anytime in the past 50 years. It is the rich and rich companies who are paying more than either.
The narrative is the opposite. He even said that Hunt made this claims and he didn't believe it, they had to actually check and found it to be true.
Truly astonishing. Spreadsheet Rishi no good at spreadsheets even. How can a former chancellor not have known this? It would have blown the debate wide open if he had gone with this not the £2000 lie
Jeremy Hunt said as much in his budget speech so it is not a new claim.
Either Rishi is bad at politics or it isn't really true (owing to VAT) or it is true but false for most Conservative voters as they are paid more.
Paul Johnson of IFS says it is true. But it is direct taxation. Obviously energy bills and mortgage rates and general inflation means most people aren't actually better off.
The Tories could spin the narrative of lower taxation, energy bills are coming down, inflation is down (for the moment), so interest rates cuts on the way.
That seems at least some narrative, rather than all your kids are doing national service...
This is how shit the Tory campaign is that Paul Johnson says that people on average earning their tax burden is lower than anytime in the past 50 years. It is the rich and rich companies who are paying more than either.
The narrative is the opposite. He even said that Hunt made this claims and he didn't believe it, they had to actually check and found it to be true.
Truly astonishing. Spreadsheet Rishi no good at spreadsheets even. How can a former chancellor not have known this? It would have blown the debate wide open if he had gone with this not the £2000 lie
It's not really true though. People are feeling the tax burden through energy costs which are hugely made up by tax.
It's as true as 360m a week to the EU, and truer than the lab 2000 tax grab.
I think the true figure was about 2/3 of the £360m. The reason we're not seeing the fiscal benefit is really because the Bank of England has stepped in with its demands on the public purse.
I was having a drink with some teacher friends of mine a couple of weeks ago and they are obviously very keen for Labour to get back in power and said budgets are tight in their schools and be glad to get a lot more funding from new government. I did have to say, you know the big Labour promise on schools is 1500 more teacher per year, that's the big offer. And they basically said, well it looks like we will be striking again then.
I'd have to check the numbers again but I think that didn't even add enough teachers to keep up with population growth, so Labour's target is a level where teacher numbers will effectively get worse. You can make similar observations about the NHS, policing, housebuilding and on and on. No party is offering solutions sufficient for the scale of the problems.
I think on those figures we are a normal polling error away from Reform as the main opposition.
NF has dropped 6m votes and 15 MPs into his Camilla Tominey interview as a prediction. I would sense he's not wanting to overcook it, and is therefore being conservative, and would be hoping for 25 MPs. That's what I am hoping for too.
This is how shit the Tory campaign is that Paul Johnson says that people on average earning their tax burden is lower than anytime in the past 50 years. It is the rich and rich companies who are paying more than either.
The narrative is the opposite. He even said that Hunt made this claims and he didn't believe it, they had to actually check and found it to be true.
Truly astonishing. Spreadsheet Rishi no good at spreadsheets even. How can a former chancellor not have known this? It would have blown the debate wide open if he had gone with this not the £2000 lie
Jeremy Hunt said as much in his budget speech so it is not a new claim.
Either Rishi is bad at politics or it isn't really true (owing to VAT) or it is true but false for most Conservative voters as they are paid more.
It’s not just taxes that determine how people feel about the economy though.
E.g. cost of mortgages/rent is a huge determinant of how well-off people feel
For the last 14 years the Tories have chased the grey vote, the NIMBY vote etc and have done comparatively little to help younger people get on the property ladder.
Put simply, if your taxes have gone down by £100 a year but your mortgage has gone up by £1000 a year, are you going to say “Thanks for cutting my taxes!” Not many will.
Also - whether you think the increase in mortgage rates since the second half of 2022 was down to Liz Truss or not… a large amount of the public think it was down to Liz Truss. It’s very hard to come back from that.
I was having a drink with some teacher friends of mine a couple of weeks ago and they are obviously very keen for Labour to get back in power and said budgets are tight in their schools and be glad to get a lot more funding from new government. I did have to say, you know the big Labour promise on schools is 1500 more teacher per year, that's the big offer. And they basically said, well it looks like we will be striking again then.
I'd have to check the numbers again but I think that didn't even add enough teachers to keep up with population growth, so Labour's target is a level where teacher numbers will effectively get worse. You can make similar observations about the NHS, policing, housebuilding and on and on. No party is offering solutions sufficient for the scale of the problems.
Its a rounding error anyway. The natural churn is 40,000 teachers every year, there were I believe 2500 extra hired last year just because of the under / over on the churn.
So basically even if they do hire 41,500 against the 40,000 leaving, its absolutely at the fringe of some schools get 1 extra teacher.
But you are right versus population growth. There are now more GPs than ever, but no f##king chance of getting an appointment. Some of that is more people / more old people, it is also that raw numbers don't necessarily mean anything if people aren't working full time. I think the GP problem is made worse by lots choosing to do part-time.
So even adding 1500 teachers alone doesn't mean even more teacher hours if more are part-time.
Trouble is, I've helped the Greens in one of their top target seats, and their ground campaign or even basic understanding of what they are supposed to be doing is pitifully shambolic, which doesn't inspire confidence in their wider prospects. At least with the LibDems we can be confident that in their top targets it's going to be well organised and professional on the ground, right through to close of poll.
I'm involved in the Labour effort in Didcot and Wantage, which is supposedly a LibDem target, and unofficially a Labour target too. The LibDem effort is overwhelmingly in delivering leaflets - up to 4 different ones on the same day to the same household. They are certainly much larger in number than the Labour leaflets, and the Tories are barely trying in leaflets although it's a solid Tory seat. Labour and LibDems are roughly competitive in number of posters, with zero Tories and a couple of Reform.
The LibDems could win, but I'm not impressed by the professionalism. If you get 1 leaflet you might read it. If you get 4 from the same source on the same day, the impression is that someone is trying to fulfil a quota, and you certainly don't read them unless you're very obsessive. More to the point, I'd argue that you're less likely to take the campaign seriously - but I could be wrong? The evident calculation is that floating anti-Tory voters take the delivery of 4 leaflets in a day as a sign that the party is really keen.
If the four leaflets are similar it's a waste. At least three go into the recycling without being read.
But if one is a colourful leaflet, another is a typed addressed target letter, another a newsy newspaper and the last a handwritten addressed letter then at least one should get read. Different people are attracted to different styles of leaflets. You've got to cover all tastes. But they shouldn't all arrive on the same day.
Now I need to leave you again as I deliver yet another batch of hand written letters.
LibDems are firm favourites on Betfair (1.39) to win Didcot and Wantage, and are predicted winners by six out of the eight models. Labour should focus their resources elsewhere.
I think on those figures we are a normal polling error away from Reform as the main opposition.
No, there is a slim chance Reform might just overtake the Tories on votes on Thursday however they would need to be on about 25% and the Tories down to 15% and the LDs 10% for Reform to overtake the Tories and LDs and SNP on seats and Farage to become LOTO to PM Starmer. Only Goodwin's poll is showing anything like that
I think on those figures we are a normal polling error away from Reform as the main opposition.
NF has dropped 6m votes and 15 MPs into his Camilla Tominey interview as a prediction. I would sense he's not wanting to overcook it, and is therefore being conservative, and would be hoping for 25 MPs. That's what I am hoping for too.
Last night I thought I might have a swarm of bees in the wisteria - popped round to see if it was in their tree. No one in, so had a listen.
N just popped back - not in but their doorbell detected me.
He suggests it was a drone being flown over by an amateur, having had a similar noise and spotted a drone recently. I believe flying over residential is technically legal for sub-250g drones, if socially unwelcome from a privacy standpoint.
Has anyone had this? We are in a close to town centre residential area.
My concerns are criminals doing research, or what we used to call nosey parkers.
Yes, I had it over my garden at about 100ft last Summer. Drone loitered for a couple of minutes, and then left.
It royally pissed me off. It should definitely be made illegal.
The number of times I've got to the summit of some spectacular mountain and there is some arsehole buzzing about. It's even worse than people who play music out of their rucksacks.
Happily some National Parks in NZ/Australia have a firm ban on them and the rangers are more than happy to bin them.
(In fact, a well funded ranger service with law enforcement powers would be an excellent way for a political party to win back the rural vote.)
Mildly surprised nobody has blamed the Welsh Government. Things are looking up for rationality.
Would you rather a burglar scouting out your pad or Mark Drakeford reassessing your council tax band?
Close call tbf.
Oh, I'd go for the Drake. Because he wouldn't be doing it but enjoying his retirement.
MiC final Scotland call, Wales to follow 🆕 Our final @Moreincommon_ Scottish voting intention of the election finds Labour lead the SNP by 5. 🔴LAB 35% (+16) 🟡SNP 30% (-15) 🔵CON 16% (-9) 🟠LIB DEM 9% (-1) 🟣REF UK 7% (NEW) 🟢GRN 2% (+1) Changes with 2019, N=1008, 24-28/6 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/general-electi…
SNP to Con swing there.
Perth and Kinrosshire the sole gain of the night?
Could be. I think more likely gains are Angus & Perthshire Glens, and Moray West, Nairn & Strathspey. Perth has a v strong, and I suspect, resilient SNP vote which will likely turn out for Pete Wishart who is the longest-serving SNP MP. Would be a disaster for Swinney to lose it as he represents much of the seat at Holyrood.
This is how shit the Tory campaign is that Paul Johnson says that people on average earning their tax burden is lower than anytime in the past 50 years. It is the rich and rich companies who are paying more than either.
The narrative is the opposite. He even said that Hunt made this claims and he didn't believe it, they had to actually check and found it to be true.
Truly astonishing. Spreadsheet Rishi no good at spreadsheets even. How can a former chancellor not have known this? It would have blown the debate wide open if he had gone with this not the £2000 lie
Jeremy Hunt said as much in his budget speech so it is not a new claim.
Either Rishi is bad at politics or it isn't really true (owing to VAT) or it is true but false for most Conservative voters as they are paid more.
It’s not just taxes that determine how people feel about the economy though.
E.g. cost of mortgages/rent is a huge determinant of how well-off people feel
For the last 14 years the Tories have chased the grey vote, the NIMBY vote etc and have done comparatively little to help younger people get on the property ladder.
Put simply, if your taxes have gone down by £100 a year but your mortgage has gone up by £1000 a year, are you going to say “Thanks for cutting my taxes!” Not many will.
Also - whether you think the increase in mortgage rates since the second half of 2022 was down to Liz Truss or not… a large amount of the public think it was down to Liz Truss. It’s very hard to come back from that.
They should have pledged to end the fiscal drag earlier.
If he stands down, who's the most likely new candidate?
Betfair latest odds for the DEM nomination
Biden 1.71-1.73 Newsom 6.4-7.0 M Obama 10.5-11 Harris 12-13.6 Whitmer 17.5-28 H Clinton 38-46
Kamala and Gretchen could both be worthwhile at those odds. I’d lay the wives of former presidents.
They aren’t going to go through the enormously disruptive gamble of changing nominees to pick someone less likely to win than a deteriorating Biden. So Clinton is about as safe a lay as it gets.
M Obama ought to be much longer odds, but isn’t entirely impossible.
Always said Coventry University was a dump like the city, raze it to the ground.
Would never have happened in my day when I chaired Warwick Uni Tories, my final event was a talk by Lord Hurd with sandwiches which is about as far away from this event as you can get!
Anyone singing such a song on my watch would have been out of the Association within 24 hrs.
TSE - Warwick University is actually not in Coventry but just as close to Leamington, Coventry has its own university
Not really these days. The urban sprawl of Coventry is such that there is no "gap" when driving around Coventry from being in what is definitely Coventry and the university. And besides Kenilworth is closer than Leamington Spa to the university campus if you want to pick another town that is Coventry.
Warwick University campus is half in Coventry and half out. The city boundary goes down Gibbet Hill Road.
I don't think that's true anymore. Westwood Heath is to the West of Gilbert hill road and is classed as a suburb of Coventry.
This is how shit the Tory campaign is that Paul Johnson says that people on average earning their tax burden is lower than anytime in the past 50 years. It is the rich and rich companies who are paying more than either.
The narrative is the opposite. He even said that Hunt made this claims and he didn't believe it, they had to actually check and found it to be true.
Truly astonishing. Spreadsheet Rishi no good at spreadsheets even. How can a former chancellor not have known this? It would have blown the debate wide open if he had gone with this not the £2000 lie
Jeremy Hunt said as much in his budget speech so it is not a new claim.
Either Rishi is bad at politics or it isn't really true (owing to VAT) or it is true but false for most Conservative voters as they are paid more.
It’s not just taxes that determine how people feel about the economy though.
E.g. cost of mortgages/rent is a huge determinant of how well-off people feel
For the last 14 years the Tories have chased the grey vote, the NIMBY vote etc and have done comparatively little to help younger people get on the property ladder.
Put simply, if your taxes have gone down by £100 a year but your mortgage has gone up by £1000 a year, are you going to say “Thanks for cutting my taxes!” Not many will.
Also - whether you think the increase in mortgage rates since the second half of 2022 was down to Liz Truss or not… a large amount of the public think it was down to Liz Truss. It’s very hard to come back from that.
This is all true and its a very hard sell for the Tories to have a decent narrative, but it better than what they have gone with which is national service, making up nonsense about Labour tax rises, etc. Then chunk in some red meat like inheritance tax cut.
The Tories were never going to win the GE, but could still get 30% or so. You do that by having a narrative that is sensible.
Trouble is, I've helped the Greens in one of their top target seats, and their ground campaign or even basic understanding of what they are supposed to be doing is pitifully shambolic, which doesn't inspire confidence in their wider prospects. At least with the LibDems we can be confident that in their top targets it's going to be well organised and professional on the ground, right through to close of poll.
I'm involved in the Labour effort in Didcot and Wantage, which is supposedly a LibDem target, and unofficially a Labour target too. The LibDem effort is overwhelmingly in delivering leaflets - up to 4 different ones on the same day to the same household. They are certainly much larger in number than the Labour leaflets, and the Tories are barely trying in leaflets although it's a solid Tory seat. Labour and LibDems are roughly competitive in number of posters, with zero Tories and a couple of Reform.
The LibDems could win, but I'm not impressed by the professionalism. If you get 1 leaflet you might read it. If you get 4 from the same source on the same day, the impression is that someone is trying to fulfil a quota, and you certainly don't read them unless you're very obsessive. More to the point, I'd argue that you're less likely to take the campaign seriously - but I could be wrong? The evident calculation is that floating anti-Tory voters take the delivery of 4 leaflets in a day as a sign that the party is really keen.
If the four leaflets are similar it's a waste. At least three go into the recycling without being read.
But if one is a colourful leaflet, another is a typed addressed target letter, another a newsy newspaper and the last a handwritten addressed letter then at least one should get read. Different people are attracted to different styles of leaflets. You've got to cover all tastes. But they shouldn't all arrive on the same day.
Now I need to leave you again as I deliver yet another batch of hand written letters.
LibDems are firm favourites on Betfair (1.39) to win Didcot and Wantage, and are predicted winners by six out of the eight models. Labour should focus their resources elsewhere.
It’s not going to be a close result. Labour can focus their resources anywhere they feel like it.
This is how shit the Tory campaign is that Paul Johnson says that people on average earning their tax burden is lower than anytime in the past 50 years. It is the rich and rich companies who are paying more than either.
The narrative is the opposite. He even said that Hunt made this claims and he didn't believe it, they had to actually check and found it to be true.
Minimum wage (£5.80 to £11.44) and personal allowance (£6,475 to £12,570) have gone up by a huge amount since 2010. Even taking inflation into account both are up by 30%. Objectively the poorest workers earn more and pay less tax, maybe still not as much as they should, but definitely a lot better off than in 2010.
It's like the pandemic and energy crisis, there are a huge number of people who seem to think "the government did nothing for me", when in reality the government has borrowed vast sums of money to subsidise wages, pay grants directly, and subisidise energy costs.
Anyone thinking Labour is about to turn the taps on is likely to be very disappointed, the direction of travel is for higher taxes simply to balance the books as they are.
You would think the Tories might want to highlight this as part of their campaign....instead of taking all the oxygen out of their campaign with National Service bollocks and arguing over if women can have a penis.
The furlough scheme went on too long and as a result cost too much money, but Sunak would easily point to that as a very successful approach that saved millions of jobs. The media can hardly say but but but it went on too long, because any suggestion it was going to finish, they scream blue murder about it ending while there was still covid cases.
I think on those figures we are a normal polling error away from Reform as the main opposition.
NF has dropped 6m votes and 15 MPs into his Camilla Tominey interview as a prediction. I would sense he's not wanting to overcook it, and is therefore being conservative, and would be hoping for 25 MPs. That's what I am hoping for too.
If Reform had the savviness and organisation of the Liberal Democrats, then yes.
They don't.
I think Farage might actually not be far off in his prediction, I think Reform will pick up a few seats in coastal towns and ex industrial areas that voted heavily Leave, voted for Boris and have no enthusiasm for Sunak or Starmer.
I also expect them to get at least as big a voteshare as UKIP got in 2015 if not higher
I think on those figures we are a normal polling error away from Reform as the main opposition.
No, there is a slim chance Reform might just overtake the Tories on votes on Thursday however they would need to be on about 25% and the Tories down to 15% and the LDs 10% for Reform to overtake the Tories and LDs and SNP on seats and Farage to become LOTO to PM Starmer. Only Goodwin's poll is showing anything like that
Everyone we tested has approval ratings underwater in Scotland, but the most striking shift is John Swinney who in our first poll of the campaign had a net approval of -2 but is now at -15, suggesting a very short honeymoon period for the First Minister
After Falkirk yesterday (SNP majority 15,000), on the last sunday before polling day John Swinney is campaigning in North Ayrshire and Arran, a seat with an 11,000 majority. Blimey, their internal numbers must be grim indeed.
I'd have thought those two are among the least likely SNP seats to go. Maybe he's just playing safe?
Its a rounding error anyway. The natural churn is 40,000 teachers every year, there were I believe 2500 extra hired last year just because of the under / over on the churn.
So basically even if they do hire 41,500 against the 40,000 leaving, its absolutely at the fringe of some schools get 1 extra teacher.
But you are right versus population growth. There are now more GPs than ever, but no f##king chance of getting an appointment. Some of that is more people / more old people, it is also that raw numbers don't necessarily mean anything if people aren't working full time. I think the GP problem is made worse by lots choosing to do part-time.
So even adding 1500 teachers alone doesn't mean even more teacher hours if more are part-time.
It's amazing how little we are arguing about in this election. Whatever the problem it usally boils down to: this party says "a little bit less" the other party says "a little bit more". In reality none of them are really willing to engage with the problem and tackle it properly, which will take a lot of money and more time than one or even two parliaments. So we have these almost pointless elections to elect governments that do more or less the same as the preceeding government and the country and the system continues to rot.
Always said Coventry University was a dump like the city, raze it to the ground.
Would never have happened in my day when I chaired Warwick Uni Tories, my final event was a talk by Lord Hurd with sandwiches which is about as far away from this event as you can get!
Anyone singing such a song on my watch would have been out of the Association within 24 hrs.
TSE - Warwick University is actually not in Coventry but just as close to Leamington, Coventry has its own university
Not really these days. The urban sprawl of Coventry is such that there is no "gap" when driving around Coventry from being in what is definitely Coventry and the university e.g. Westwood Heath is a new build estate right next to the university campus and that is classed as a suburb of the City of Coventry.
And besides Kenilworth is closer than Leamington Spa to the university campus if you want to pick another town that is Coventry.
This is actually one of the sketchiest towns I’ve seen in Europe. There’s a kebab shop (one of the few places open) with a man yelling very loudly in Arabic at his phone. Every other shop on that street is permanently shuttered
Drunk parents with kids. So many shit cars with dents. Tracksuits everywhere. And an actual sense of menace on a Sunday afternoon
Its a rounding error anyway. The natural churn is 40,000 teachers every year, there were I believe 2500 extra hired last year just because of the under / over on the churn.
So basically even if they do hire 41,500 against the 40,000 leaving, its absolutely at the fringe of some schools get 1 extra teacher.
But you are right versus population growth. There are now more GPs than ever, but no f##king chance of getting an appointment. Some of that is more people / more old people, it is also that raw numbers don't necessarily mean anything if people aren't working full time. I think the GP problem is made worse by lots choosing to do part-time.
So even adding 1500 teachers alone doesn't mean even more teacher hours if more are part-time.
It's amazing how little we are arguing about in this election. Whatever the problem it usally boils down to: this party says "a little bit less" the other party says "a little bit more". In reality none of them are really willing to engage with the problem and tackle it properly, which will take a lot of money and more time than one or even two parliaments. So we have these almost pointless elections to elect govnerments that do more or less the same as the preceeding government and the country and the system continues to rot.
Oh its absolutely terrible. The Tories, I mean just a joke, Labour, their big ideas are just rebadges of things tried in the past (or VAT tax on private schools that will at best raise loose change down the back of the sofa) and the Lib Dems have their leader acting like the Unknown Stuntman every day...and no real actual debate of how to tackle current problems and also big things coming down the pipe e.g. AI is going to eat a lot of lower end white collar jobs.
This is actually one of the sketchiest towns I’ve seen in Europe. There’s a kebab shop (one of the few places open) with a man yelling very loudly in Arabic at his phone. Every other shop on that street is permanently shuttered
Drunk parents with kids. So many shit cars with dents. Tracksuits everywhere. And an actual sense of menace on a Sunday afternoon
I was having a drink with some teacher friends of mine a couple of weeks ago and they are obviously very keen for Labour to get back in power and said budgets are tight in their schools and be glad to get a lot more funding from new government. I did have to say, you know the big Labour promise on schools is 1500 more teacher per year, that's the big offer. And they basically said, well it looks like we will be striking again then.
I'd have to check the numbers again but I think that didn't even add enough teachers to keep up with population growth, so Labour's target is a level where teacher numbers will effectively get worse. You can make similar observations about the NHS, policing, housebuilding and on and on. No party is offering solutions sufficient for the scale of the problems.
Its a rounding error anyway. The natural churn is 40,000 teachers every year, there were I believe 2500 extra hired last year just because of the under / over on the churn.
So basically even if they do hire 41,500 against the 40,000 leaving, its absolutely at the fringe of some schools get 1 extra teacher.
But you are right versus population growth. There are now more GPs than ever, but no f##king chance of getting an appointment. Some of that is more people / more old people, it is also that raw numbers don't necessarily mean anything if people aren't working full time. I think the GP problem is made worse by lots choosing to do part-time.
So even adding 1500 teachers alone doesn't mean even more teacher hours if more are part-time.
On the GPs part I’ve issue I have many doctor friends (male and female) and virtually all of them recognise that one absolutely huge problem is the numbers of doctors who take maternity leave and then go part time after or quit entirely depending on their circumstances.
Its a problem they feel they really cannot raise due to the trouble they would get in but it’s clear that if, for example half of each year of med students are women and a large proportion, once trained at great time and expense, leave or work massively reduced hours , then there will be shortages.
Who knows what the solution is but people are very happy to highlight us losing trained doctors to foreign countries over money and that damage that does but less keen to highlight the number of doctors we lose to unchangeable facts of biology.
This is how shit the Tory campaign is that Paul Johnson says that people on average earning their tax burden is lower than anytime in the past 50 years. It is the rich and rich companies who are paying more than either.
The narrative is the opposite. He even said that Hunt made this claims and he didn't believe it, they had to actually check and found it to be true.
Minimum wage (£5.80 to £11.44) and personal allowance (£6,475 to £12,570) have gone up by a huge amount since 2010. Even taking inflation into account both are up by 30%. Objectively the poorest workers earn more and pay less tax, maybe still not as much as they should, but definitely a lot better off than in 2010.
It's like the pandemic and energy crisis, there are a huge number of people who seem to think "the government did nothing for me", when in reality the government has borrowed vast sums of money to subsidise wages, pay grants directly, and subisidise energy costs.
Anyone thinking Labour is about to turn the taps on is likely to be very disappointed, the direction of travel is for higher taxes simply to balance the books as they are.
You would think the Tories might want to highlight this as part of their campaign....instead of taking all the oxygen out of their campaign with National Service bollocks and arguing over if women can have a penis.
The furlough scheme went on too long and as a result cost too much money, but Sunak would easily point to that as a very successful approach that saved millions of jobs. The media can hardly say but but but it went on too long, because any suggestion it was going to finish, they scream blue murder about it ending while there was still covid cases.
This is how shit the Tory campaign is that Paul Johnson says that people on average earning their tax burden is lower than anytime in the past 50 years. It is the rich and rich companies who are paying more than either.
The narrative is the opposite. He even said that Hunt made this claims and he didn't believe it, they had to actually check and found it to be true.
Minimum wage (£5.80 to £11.44) and personal allowance (£6,475 to £12,570) have gone up by a huge amount since 2010. Even taking inflation into account both are up by 30%. Objectively the poorest workers earn more and pay less tax, maybe still not as much as they should, but definitely a lot better off than in 2010.
It's like the pandemic and energy crisis, there are a huge number of people who seem to think "the government did nothing for me", when in reality the government has borrowed vast sums of money to subsidise wages, pay grants directly, and subisidise energy costs.
Anyone thinking Labour is about to turn the taps on is likely to be very disappointed, the direction of travel is for higher taxes simply to balance the books as they are.
The biggest trick Mrs Thatcher played was fooling everyone that only income tax matters. Poorer workers spend more on food, which shot up in price after the SMO, and pay more as a proportion of VAT. Conversely, rich people who take three exotic holidays a year saw costs fall drastically as Leon from the Gazette has told us on a weekly basis.
This is how shit the Tory campaign is that Paul Johnson says that people on average earning their tax burden is lower than anytime in the past 50 years. It is the rich and rich companies who are paying more than either.
The narrative is the opposite. He even said that Hunt made this claims and he didn't believe it, they had to actually check and found it to be true.
Minimum wage (£5.80 to £11.44) and personal allowance (£6,475 to £12,570) have gone up by a huge amount since 2010. Even taking inflation into account both are up by 30%. Objectively the poorest workers earn more and pay less tax, maybe still not as much as they should, but definitely a lot better off than in 2010.
It's like the pandemic and energy crisis, there are a huge number of people who seem to think "the government did nothing for me", when in reality the government has borrowed vast sums of money to subsidise wages, pay grants directly, and subisidise energy costs.
Anyone thinking Labour is about to turn the taps on is likely to be very disappointed, the direction of travel is for higher taxes simply to balance the books as they are.
You would think the Tories might want to highlight this as part of their campaign....instead of taking all the oxygen out of their campaign with National Service bollocks and arguing over if women can have a penis.
The furlough scheme went on too long and as a result cost too much money, but Sunak would easily point to that as a very successful approach that saved millions of jobs. The media can hardly say but but but it went on too long, because any suggestion it was going to finish, they scream blue murder about it ending while there was still covid cases.
Out and about in Southern Derbyshire today - Derby North, Mid Derbsyhire, South Derbyshire, Derbyshire Dales. No more placards than anywhere else, but saw my first and second Tory placards and also my first Reform placard. Greens particularly in evidence in Mid Derbyshire.
Now for complicated reasons in the cafe at Derby Arena, where a volleyball tournament is going on. Literally every competitor from every team is Asian. Some sort of inter-mosque event perhaps?
I was having a drink with some teacher friends of mine a couple of weeks ago and they are obviously very keen for Labour to get back in power and said budgets are tight in their schools and be glad to get a lot more funding from new government. I did have to say, you know the big Labour promise on schools is 1500 more teacher per year, that's the big offer. And they basically said, well it looks like we will be striking again then.
I'd have to check the numbers again but I think that didn't even add enough teachers to keep up with population growth, so Labour's target is a level where teacher numbers will effectively get worse. You can make similar observations about the NHS, policing, housebuilding and on and on. No party is offering solutions sufficient for the scale of the problems.
Its a rounding error anyway. The natural churn is 40,000 teachers every year, there were I believe 2500 extra hired last year just because of the under / over on the churn.
So basically even if they do hire 41,500 against the 40,000 leaving, its absolutely at the fringe of some schools get 1 extra teacher.
But you are right versus population growth. There are now more GPs than ever, but no f##king chance of getting an appointment. Some of that is more people / more old people, it is also that raw numbers don't necessarily mean anything if people aren't working full time. I think the GP problem is made worse by lots choosing to do part-time.
So even adding 1500 teachers alone doesn't mean even more teacher hours if more are part-time.
On the GPs part I’ve issue I have many doctor friends (male and female) and virtually all of them recognise that one absolutely huge problem is the numbers of doctors who take maternity leave and then go part time after or quit entirely depending on their circumstances.
Its a problem they feel they really cannot raise due to the trouble they would get in but it’s clear that if, for example half of each year of med students are women and a large proportion, once trained at great time and expense, leave or work massively reduced hours , then there will be shortages.
Who knows what the solution is but people are very happy to highlight us losing trained doctors to foreign countries over money and that damage that does but less keen to highlight the number of doctors we lose to unchangeable facts of biology.
I think this is a difficult and sensitive issue across a lot of sectors e.g. we know that education, particular primary education, is dominated by women. Women are doing better than men at school, at university, so have better career prospects. It is very expensive to have kids, if you want to go back to work (and most couples need both working these days), you have the child care costs etc etc etc.
The fact that Hamas apologists don't want to vote Labour is a feature, not a bug.
Totally agreed Sandy.
If Starmer loses far left loonies to the Greens, Hamas apologists/racists to the Greens or independents, and wins the election . . . That's a triple victory for Starmer.
Oh its absolutely terrible. The Tories, I mean just a joke, Labour, their big ideas are just rebadges of things tried in the past (or VAT tax on private schools that will at best raise loose change down the back of the sofa) and the Lib Dems have their leader acting like the Unknown Stuntman every day...and no real actual debate of how to tackle current problems and also big things coming down the pipe e.g. AI is going to eat a lot of lower end white collar jobs.
The idea that governments that can't even manage staffing or to build pretty much anything are going to be able to deal with something like AI is hilarious.
I was having a drink with some teacher friends of mine a couple of weeks ago and they are obviously very keen for Labour to get back in power and said budgets are tight in their schools and be glad to get a lot more funding from new government. I did have to say, you know the big Labour promise on schools is 1500 more teacher per year, that's the big offer. And they basically said, well it looks like we will be striking again then.
I'd have to check the numbers again but I think that didn't even add enough teachers to keep up with population growth, so Labour's target is a level where teacher numbers will effectively get worse. You can make similar observations about the NHS, policing, housebuilding and on and on. No party is offering solutions sufficient for the scale of the problems.
Its a rounding error anyway. The natural churn is 40,000 teachers every year, there were I believe 2500 extra hired last year just because of the under / over on the churn.
So basically even if they do hire 41,500 against the 40,000 leaving, its absolutely at the fringe of some schools get 1 extra teacher.
But you are right versus population growth. There are now more GPs than ever, but no f##king chance of getting an appointment. Some of that is more people / more old people, it is also that raw numbers don't necessarily mean anything if people aren't working full time. I think the GP problem is made worse by lots choosing to do part-time.
So even adding 1500 teachers alone doesn't mean even more teacher hours if more are part-time.
On the GPs part I’ve issue I have many doctor friends (male and female) and virtually all of them recognise that one absolutely huge problem is the numbers of doctors who take maternity leave and then go part time after or quit entirely depending on their circumstances.
Its a problem they feel they really cannot raise due to the trouble they would get in but it’s clear that if, for example half of each year of med students are women and a large proportion, once trained at great time and expense, leave or work massively reduced hours , then there will be shortages.
Who knows what the solution is but people are very happy to highlight us losing trained doctors to foreign countries over money and that damage that does but less keen to highlight the number of doctors we lose to unchangeable facts of biology.
It is more complicated than that because many part-time GPs are not part-time doctors but have what they call portfolio careers, so a couple of shifts as a GP and a day in outpatients and another in A&E, that sort of thing.
But yes, there are more part-time GPs, and more retired GPs, and more doctors going abroad where they are better treated, and more leaving medicine because they see themselves falling behind their school chums who became lawyers, bankers and management consultants. And remarkably, this government has managed to engineer a crisis of medical unemployment at the same time as a shortage of doctors.
Ann Widdecombe was Farage's warm up act and he calls her 'a fantastic role model for women'
More power to her, but I find her quite hard to listen to - bit shreiky. Zia Yusuf was brilliant - Farage was tipping him as a future leader in the Tominey interview.
I hate the pastiche cathedral. When I lived there in 1980-81, the cathedral was much revered. Nonetheless I don't believe it has aged well. There was more left of Coventry Cathedral than Cologne and Cologne Cathedral has been rebuilt beautifully.
There again the City hadn't and hasn't fared better. Coming in on the train in 1981 there was a sign which read "Coventry, City of Skill and Opportunity" infront of a thousand unsold Triumph and Rover cars. The cars didn't move for the year I lived there.
Someone mentioned earlier about "Coventry University" which has a reasonable reputation for engineering. It evolved from the old Lanchester Polytechnic. The Nazi controversy revolves around Warwick University which is also in the City.
Last night I thought I might have a swarm of bees in the wisteria - popped round to see if it was in their tree. No one in, so had a listen.
N just popped back - not in but their doorbell detected me.
He suggests it was a drone being flown over by an amateur, having had a similar noise and spotted a drone recently. I believe flying over residential is technically legal for sub-250g drones, if socially unwelcome from a privacy standpoint.
Has anyone had this? We are in a close to town centre residential area.
My concerns are criminals doing research, or what we used to call nosey parkers.
Yes, I had it over my garden at about 100ft last Summer. Drone loitered for a couple of minutes, and then left.
It royally pissed me off. It should definitely be made illegal.
The number of times I've got to the summit of some spectacular mountain and there is some arsehole buzzing about. It's even worse than people who play music out of their rucksacks.
Happily some National Parks in NZ/Australia have a firm ban on them and the rangers are more than happy to bin them.
(In fact, a well funded ranger service with law enforcement powers would be an excellent way for a political party to win back the rural vote.)
Mildly surprised nobody has blamed the Welsh Government. Things are looking up for rationality.
Would you rather a burglar scouting out your pad or Mark Drakeford reassessing your council tax band?
Close call tbf.
Oh, I'd go for the Drake. Because he wouldn't be doing it but enjoying his retirement.
Does the Drake ever really 'enjoy' anything? I suspect he considers pleasure to be vaguely bourgeoise.
It’s like someone took 10,000 people from Liverpool and dropped them in Verona, but forced them all to speak French
Idea: the French government should sell this hakf of Brittany to the Remainery British. Lots of wealthy Brits would love to live in a beautiful stone-built town half an hour from a spectacular coast
They’d soon fill it with yoga studios and thriving gastropubs
Jeez I just walked past a shitty car full of 20-somethings openly doing hard drugs. Smack I think
Did you feel a tug like Bilbo in the vicinity of the ring?
Oh its absolutely terrible. The Tories, I mean just a joke, Labour, their big ideas are just rebadges of things tried in the past (or VAT tax on private schools that will at best raise loose change down the back of the sofa) and the Lib Dems have their leader acting like the Unknown Stuntman every day...and no real actual debate of how to tackle current problems and also big things coming down the pipe e.g. AI is going to eat a lot of lower end white collar jobs.
The idea that governments that can't even manage staffing or to build pretty much anything are going to be able to deal with something like AI is hilarious.
Government should be thinking about this. We send 50% of kids to university, many end up in low end white collar jobs. I am not Leon level AI will take all jobs ever, but there will be a shift, there will be jobs in the near future that now need 1 rather than 10. There will be new jobs and careers, but just sticking your head in the sand saying yes I definitely think we are going to be 100,000s of new web devs or coding monkeys is stupid.
We already have the issue now, how do we assess kids through education. Its too easy for that lower level of education for LLMs to write decent enough guff.
This is how shit the Tory campaign is that Paul Johnson says that people on average earning their tax burden is lower than anytime in the past 50 years. It is the rich and rich companies who are paying more than either.
The narrative is the opposite. He even said that Hunt made this claims and he didn't believe it, they had to actually check and found it to be true.
Minimum wage (£5.80 to £11.44) and personal allowance (£6,475 to £12,570) have gone up by a huge amount since 2010. Even taking inflation into account both are up by 30%. Objectively the poorest workers earn more and pay less tax, maybe still not as much as they should, but definitely a lot better off than in 2010.
It's like the pandemic and energy crisis, there are a huge number of people who seem to think "the government did nothing for me", when in reality the government has borrowed vast sums of money to subsidise wages, pay grants directly, and subisidise energy costs.
Anyone thinking Labour is about to turn the taps on is likely to be very disappointed, the direction of travel is for higher taxes simply to balance the books as they are.
The biggest trick Mrs Thatcher played was fooling everyone that only income tax matters. Poorer workers spend more on food, which shot up in price after the SMO, and pay more as a proportion of VAT. Conversely, rich people who take three exotic holidays a year saw costs fall drastically as Leon from the Gazette has told us on a weekly basis.
Her successors tried their own fraud by their repeated chorus that a drop in inflation somehow makes everything better at once for those who have to cope with 2-3 years' severe inflation. Apart from being bullshit, this forgets that even an eventual increase in pay doesn't bring back the very large chunk of money that was permanently lost.
Ann Widdecombe was Farage's warm up act and he calls her 'a fantastic role model for women'
More power to her, but I find her quite hard to listen to - bit shreiky. Zia Yusuf was brilliant - Farage was tipping him as a future leader in the Tominey interview.
David Bull has a lot of experience on television. It's clear there are a substantial number of very articulate non-white people who are fed up with identity politics and the diminishing of Britain/ the west that the left engages in. That said the audience does look very very white.
This is how shit the Tory campaign is that Paul Johnson says that people on average earning their tax burden is lower than anytime in the past 50 years. It is the rich and rich companies who are paying more than either.
The narrative is the opposite. He even said that Hunt made this claims and he didn't believe it, they had to actually check and found it to be true.
Truly astonishing. Spreadsheet Rishi no good at spreadsheets even. How can a former chancellor not have known this? It would have blown the debate wide open if he had gone with this not the £2000 lie
Jeremy Hunt said as much in his budget speech so it is not a new claim.
Either Rishi is bad at politics or it isn't really true (owing to VAT) or it is true but false for most Conservative voters as they are paid more.
It’s not just taxes that determine how people feel about the economy though.
E.g. cost of mortgages/rent is a huge determinant of how well-off people feel
For the last 14 years the Tories have chased the grey vote, the NIMBY vote etc and have done comparatively little to help younger people get on the property ladder.
Put simply, if your taxes have gone down by £100 a year but your mortgage has gone up by £1000 a year, are you going to say “Thanks for cutting my taxes!” Not many will.
Also - whether you think the increase in mortgage rates since the second half of 2022 was down to Liz Truss or not… a large amount of the public think it was down to Liz Truss. It’s very hard to come back from that.
They should have pledged to end the fiscal drag earlier.
Would have gone down well.
There's lots they should have done. But the party is led by an out of touch, incompetent leader who has never had too much month at the end of the money and has no connection to ordinary voters.
David Cameron was wealthy and privileged but knew it and went out of his way to connect. Even without speaking about his son which was a real human connection.
Farage at his rally says 'a change from Sunak to Starmer is not really a change of government, just a change of middle manager'
As he would.
But I think he underestimates the proportion of voters whose vibes-based X on Thursday will be driven precisely by a desire for effective middle-management of the NHS, education, economy, rather than any sort of driven dogma, especially his.
There's a market for it, sure, but I think Reform's current polling is more or less a ceiling rather than a floor from which to build.
This is how shit the Tory campaign is that Paul Johnson says that people on average earning their tax burden is lower than anytime in the past 50 years. It is the rich and rich companies who are paying more than either.
The narrative is the opposite. He even said that Hunt made this claims and he didn't believe it, they had to actually check and found it to be true.
Truly astonishing. Spreadsheet Rishi no good at spreadsheets even. How can a former chancellor not have known this? It would have blown the debate wide open if he had gone with this not the £2000 lie
Jeremy Hunt said as much in his budget speech so it is not a new claim.
Either Rishi is bad at politics or it isn't really true (owing to VAT) or it is true but false for most Conservative voters as they are paid more.
It’s not just taxes that determine how people feel about the economy though.
E.g. cost of mortgages/rent is a huge determinant of how well-off people feel
For the last 14 years the Tories have chased the grey vote, the NIMBY vote etc and have done comparatively little to help younger people get on the property ladder.
Put simply, if your taxes have gone down by £100 a year but your mortgage has gone up by £1000 a year, are you going to say “Thanks for cutting my taxes!” Not many will.
Also - whether you think the increase in mortgage rates since the second half of 2022 was down to Liz Truss or not… a large amount of the public think it was down to Liz Truss. It’s very hard to come back from that.
They should have pledged to end the fiscal drag earlier.
Would have gone down well.
There's lots they should have done. But the party is led by an out of touch, incompetent leader who has never had too much month at the end of the money and has no connection to ordinary voters.
David Cameron was wealthy and privileged but knew it and went out of his way to connect. Even without speaking about his son which was a real human connection.
Sunak lacks that.
Remember it is a big reason that they hired the likes of Andy Coulson. Cameron and Osborne recognised that they might well have blind spots to issues effecting regular people, so went and got a working class Essex lad to provide that grounding.
Its seems Sunak is surrounded by equally out of touch people. All those PR people who did his leadership campaign apparently are still there and all poshos.
Oh its absolutely terrible. The Tories, I mean just a joke, Labour, their big ideas are just rebadges of things tried in the past (or VAT tax on private schools that will at best raise loose change down the back of the sofa) and the Lib Dems have their leader acting like the Unknown Stuntman every day...and no real actual debate of how to tackle current problems and also big things coming down the pipe e.g. AI is going to eat a lot of lower end white collar jobs.
The idea that governments that can't even manage staffing or to build pretty much anything are going to be able to deal with something like AI is hilarious.
Government should be thinking about this. We send 50% of kids to university, many end up in low end white collar jobs. I am not Leon level AI will take all jobs ever, but there will be a shift, there will be jobs in the near future that now need 1 rather than 10. There will be new jobs and careers, but just sticking your head in the sand saying yes I definitely think we are going to be 100,000s of new web devs or coding monkeys is stupid.
We already have the issue now, how do we assess kids through education. Its too easy for that lower level of education for LLMs to write decent enough guff.
It would be an extremely brave politician who raised the prospect of most of the nice jobs, not great but okay, going up in smoke. There are a lot of people sat in offices who could plausibly be replaced by automation a lot sooner than they think, assuming they even have ever had such a thought.
Ann Widdecombe was Farage's warm up act and he calls her 'a fantastic role model for women'
More power to her, but I find her quite hard to listen to - bit shreiky. Zia Yusuf was brilliant - Farage was tipping him as a future leader in the Tominey interview.
David Bull has a lot of experience on television. It's clear there are a substantial number of very articulate non-white people who are fed up with identity politics and the diminishing of Britain/ the west that the left engages in. That said the audience does look very very white.
Reform rallies and Glasto, the last remaining bastions of whiteness.
Farage at his rally says 'a change from Sunak to Starmer is not really a change of government, just a change of middle manager'
As he would.
But I think he underestimates the proportion of voters whose vibes-based X on Thursday will be driven precisely by a desire for effective middle-management of the NHS, education, economy, rather than any sort of driven dogma, especially his.
There's a market for it, sure, but I think Reform's current polling is more or less a ceiling rather than a floor from which to build.
It is a ceiling if they don't overtake the Tories on votes on Thursday, if they do it may well be only a floor
Oh its absolutely terrible. The Tories, I mean just a joke, Labour, their big ideas are just rebadges of things tried in the past (or VAT tax on private schools that will at best raise loose change down the back of the sofa) and the Lib Dems have their leader acting like the Unknown Stuntman every day...and no real actual debate of how to tackle current problems and also big things coming down the pipe e.g. AI is going to eat a lot of lower end white collar jobs.
The idea that governments that can't even manage staffing or to build pretty much anything are going to be able to deal with something like AI is hilarious.
Government should be thinking about this. We send 50% of kids to university, many end up in low end white collar jobs. I am not Leon level AI will take all jobs ever, but there will be a shift, there will be jobs in the near future that now need 1 rather than 10. There will be new jobs and careers, but just sticking your head in the sand saying yes I definitely think we are going to be 100,000s of new web devs or coding monkeys is stupid.
We already have the issue now, how do we assess kids through education. Its too easy for that lower level of education for LLMs to write decent enough guff.
It would be an extremely brave politician who raised the prospect of most of the nice jobs, not great but okay, going up in smoke. There are a lot of people sat in offices who could plausibly be replaced by automation a lot sooner than they think, assuming they even have ever had such a thought.
That's true, but sticking your head in the sand about the fact kids can get a LLM to do a good chunk of the current way we assess them isn't going to help anybody.
You also don't need to come out and say ok folks, your all going to get the sack in the next 10 years, its all over. Rather you think about the direction of travel and how to allocate resources to ensure that the country is better equipped for the changing landscape. One obvious move is we need more people with vocational skills, we need them now, we are certainly going to need them in the future.
In the modest amount of Scotland polling that we've had there has been a weakening of Labour's position and a strengthening of the SNP, so I'm not surprised that Labour thinks things will be close in the central belt.
I do think there is still potential for the election to go horribly wrong for Labour.
Trouble is, I've helped the Greens in one of their top target seats, and their ground campaign or even basic understanding of what they are supposed to be doing is pitifully shambolic, which doesn't inspire confidence in their wider prospects. At least with the LibDems we can be confident that in their top targets it's going to be well organised and professional on the ground, right through to close of poll.
I'm involved in the Labour effort in Didcot and Wantage, which is supposedly a LibDem target, and unofficially a Labour target too. The LibDem effort is overwhelmingly in delivering leaflets - up to 4 different ones on the same day to the same household. They are certainly much larger in number than the Labour leaflets, and the Tories are barely trying in leaflets although it's a solid Tory seat. Labour and LibDems are roughly competitive in number of posters, with zero Tories and a couple of Reform.
The LibDems could win, but I'm not impressed by the professionalism. If you get 1 leaflet you might read it. If you get 4 from the same source on the same day, the impression is that someone is trying to fulfil a quota, and you certainly don't read them unless you're very obsessive. More to the point, I'd argue that you're less likely to take the campaign seriously - but I could be wrong? The evident calculation is that floating anti-Tory voters take the delivery of 4 leaflets in a day as a sign that the party is really keen.
Let’s see what happens in that seat.
The point I was making is that, despite importing one of their supposedly ‘top agents’ into my seat last time, the organisation and understanding on display from the Greens was pitiful. Which would worry me about staking too much money on Green wins.
Most of their more able people have come into politics from single issue campaigning on social media, rather than the hard school of council elections, and it shows.
I think on those figures we are a normal polling error away from Reform as the main opposition.
NF has dropped 6m votes and 15 MPs into his Camilla Tominey interview as a prediction. I would sense he's not wanting to overcook it, and is therefore being conservative, and would be hoping for 25 MPs. That's what I am hoping for too.
If Reform had the savviness and organisation of the Liberal Democrats, then yes.
They don't.
Farage also has an interest in talking Reform up beyond their likely seat total/votes. He needs to create expectations much more on the upside than to manage them down, as to maximise their vote/win seats they need to convince lots of their target voters giving Reform their vote really will have a worthwhile outcome beyond it being a protest vote. So forming a reasonably sized caucus of MPs and becoming a significant minor party at Westminster fulfils that.
Of course after polling day, even if they ended up with no MPs and badly underperforming he'd then pivot to saying what a great success it was with the 'establishment' and odds stacked against them etc.
Out and about in Southern Derbyshire today - Derby North, Mid Derbsyhire, South Derbyshire, Derbyshire Dales. No more placards than anywhere else, but saw my first and second Tory placards and also my first Reform placard. Greens particularly in evidence in Mid Derbyshire.
Now for complicated reasons in the cafe at Derby Arena, where a volleyball tournament is going on. Literally every competitor from every team is Asian. Some sort of inter-mosque event perhaps?
Just been chatting to one of the volleyballers. He was frustratingly vague. What's the tournament? "It's just all the lads." [there must be about 150 of them.] Is it just from round Derby? "No, no, it's UK wide. I'm from Birmingham." But why is everybody Asian? I didn't ask that of course. But no clue was given.
This is how shit the Tory campaign is that Paul Johnson says that people on average earning their tax burden is lower than anytime in the past 50 years. It is the rich and rich companies who are paying more than either.
The narrative is the opposite. He even said that Hunt made this claims and he didn't believe it, they had to actually check and found it to be true.
Truly astonishing. Spreadsheet Rishi no good at spreadsheets even. How can a former chancellor not have known this? It would have blown the debate wide open if he had gone with this not the £2000 lie
Jeremy Hunt said as much in his budget speech so it is not a new claim.
Either Rishi is bad at politics or it isn't really true (owing to VAT) or it is true but false for most Conservative voters as they are paid more.
It’s not just taxes that determine how people feel about the economy though.
E.g. cost of mortgages/rent is a huge determinant of how well-off people feel
For the last 14 years the Tories have chased the grey vote, the NIMBY vote etc and have done comparatively little to help younger people get on the property ladder.
Put simply, if your taxes have gone down by £100 a year but your mortgage has gone up by £1000 a year, are you going to say “Thanks for cutting my taxes!” Not many will.
Also - whether you think the increase in mortgage rates since the second half of 2022 was down to Liz Truss or not… a large amount of the public think it was down to Liz Truss. It’s very hard to come back from that.
They should have pledged to end the fiscal drag earlier.
Would have gone down well.
There's lots they should have done. But the party is led by an out of touch, incompetent leader who has never had too much month at the end of the money and has no connection to ordinary voters.
David Cameron was wealthy and privileged but knew it and went out of his way to connect. Even without speaking about his son which was a real human connection.
Sunak lacks that.
Remember it is a big reason that they hired the likes of Andy Coulson. Cameron and Osborne recognised that they might well have blind spots to issues effecting regular people, so went and got a working class Essex lad to provide that grounding.
Its seems Sunak is surrounded by equally out of touch people. All those PR people who did his leadership campaign apparently are still there and all poshos.
It is not just that Rishi brought his mates into Number 10 but the cumulative effect of doing that after Boris and then Liz Truss had purged a lot of experienced staff. That is why there is no-one left in Downing Street or CCHQ who knows how to work an umbrella, or even to look out the window to see if it is raining.
Yes, I think Galloway's Party, the Greens and Corbyn and maybe even Reform could take a couple of seats off Labour.
Peter Kellner, former President of Yougov, has now come out with his general election forecast as mentioned last thread which looks very close to 1997 (and indeed 2001) and looks much as I expect it to be too.
Peter Kellner prediction in Sunday Times:
• Labour: 37 per cent of the Britain-wide vote, 400 seats • Conservative: 24 per cent, 155 seats • Liberal Democrats: 13 per cent, 50 seats • Reform UK: 13 per cent, 2 seats • Green: 7 per cent, 2 seats • SNP: 33 per cent in Scotland, 18 seats • Other (including Northern Ireland): 23 seats • Labour majority: 150.
Labour and Tories slightly down on 1997 on voteshare and seats though, LDs slightly up on 1997 on seats but worse on voteshare.
Greens winning seats unlike 1997 and Reform also forecast to win seats which the Referendum Party failed to do then. SNP well down on 2019 but also still more seats than they got in 1997
That feels more right than the polling to me. But maybe my feelz aren't important? Normalcy bias is a strong motivator. Even for those whose job it is.
Kellner's figures not far off the latest Yougov, except Tories a bit higher and Reform a bit lower
If you really believe Kellner's prediction that the Tories will win 155 seats, then why not consider taking up Wm Hills' current offer of 8/1 for them to win between 150 - 199 seats. Personally I prefer the evens money odds available that they will win between 50 - 99 seats.
Just catching up, but I'm your man on the spot in Brighton Kemptown and Peacehaven. Despite the tweet in the header, and the fact that some of you have had a punt on the Greens, they won't win it. A few points:
- there's no doubt that the sacking of LRM and his replacement by SKS's mate has gone down like a bucket of sick among Labour activists. - there's no active Labour campaigning in the constituency, but there was never going to be much even if LRM was still here - all resources have been redirected to Brighton Pavilion and the two Worthing seats. - crucially, there's no Green campaign either - they are entirely focused on hanging on to Caroline Lucas's seat next door. - you wouldn't even know there was an election going on if you didn't read PB.
In conclusion, turnout will be down and the Greens will get a lot more votes than their 4.6% in 2019 (my daughter, for one), but nowhere near enough to win it. If there was a challenger to Labour, it should be the Tories (35% in 2019 - they are strong in the coastal strip just outside Brighton that's in the constituency), but they seem to have completely given up, despite boundary changes benefiting them.
I love a long odds value loser. Just put a fiver on Alicia Kearns for next Conservative leader.
This is the most fun election ever for me, in the sense that I put a decent whack on Labour Majority at 5/1 in Jan 2022, right after I saw prices on food going up in the shops weekly, and knew the incumbent would be punished at the next election irrespective of whatever else. So I am green more or less whatever dumb long odds bets I put on. Two of my favourites are Labour 500+ seats at 25/1 and Con 150-200 seats at 8/1, still available at 7/1. Hat tip also to Casino for Libs to gain Epsom and Ewell at 14/1, trading at 2/1 last time I checked.
I think the Con / RefUK split makes it hard to find value in this market, because there's no real precedent and a strong RefUK showing could cost the Conservatives almost all their seats without winning any themselves, whereas a couple of points less for the RefUKers could see the Conservatives coasting 150 seats plus.
Because I'm green thanks to the Jan 2022 bet, I still have a decent amount of money in the tank for bets on the night. PB has always been an awesome source of tips, I've usually made more from bets on the night than on bets placed during the campaign. Andy_JS's spreadsheet and Alistair's tip on SNP seats spring to mind.
I reckon the LibDem/Tory new marginals in the southern Home Counties will offer good betting opportunities on the night. The MRPs put many of them on a knife-edge. We need to identify the seats within that group that are likely to declare the earliest - the swings there should tell us whether the LibDems are really going to sweep the blue wall, or whether most of the Tories in the safer spots will hang on. Whichever, we can then pile on accordingly.
I think on those figures we are a normal polling error away from Reform as the main opposition.
NF has dropped 6m votes and 15 MPs into his Camilla Tominey interview as a prediction. I would sense he's not wanting to overcook it, and is therefore being conservative, and would be hoping for 25 MPs. That's what I am hoping for too.
If Reform had the savviness and organisation of the Liberal Democrats, then yes.
They don't.
Farage also has an interest in talking Reform up beyond their likely seat total/votes. He needs to create expectations much more on the upside than to manage them down, as to maximise their vote/win seats they need to convince lots of their target voters giving Reform their vote really will have a worthwhile outcome beyond it being a protest vote. So forming a reasonably sized caucus of MPs and becoming a significant minor party at Westminster fulfils that.
Of course after polling day, even if they ended up with no MPs and badly underperforming he'd then pivot to saying what a great success it was with the 'establishment' and odds stacked against them etc.
No, he'll go full on Trump... "we wuz robbed, it's a conspiracy, trust no one" and all that MAGA crap.
It’s like someone took 10,000 people from Liverpool and dropped them in Verona, but forced them all to speak French
Idea: the French government should sell this hakf of Brittany to the Remainery British. Lots of wealthy Brits would love to live in a beautiful stone-built town half an hour from a spectacular coast
They’d soon fill it with yoga studios and thriving gastropubs
Jeez I just walked past a shitty car full of 20-somethings openly doing hard drugs. Smack I think
Did you feel a tug like Bilbo in the vicinity of the ring?
It’s totally mad. The centre of the town is a sequence of islands and parks surrounded by 17-19th stone houses, villas, mills
If Guingamp was in Britain it would be in the top 20 loveliest towns in the country. But it’s not. Its in neglected northwest inland Brittany and they’re shooting up heroin by the shuttered fake Irish pub
Another probably useless observation on placards/posters.
This morning I did a 15 mile walk from the Nottinghamshire border up on to the Lincolnshire edge. This took me through half a dozen nice little rural villages. This is pretty solid blue territory.
The result of my observations?
Nothing. Zero. Zilch. Not a single poster or indication that the election is happening anywhere on the 15 mile walk. I did see one house with a front fence decorated half in Danish flags and half in English flags. I wondered whther last night's or tonight's match would bring the greater disappointment.
Oh and breaking in new boots on a 15 mile walk is painful.
Comments
The furlough scheme went on too long and as a result cost too much money, but Sunak would easily point to that as a very successful approach that saved millions of jobs. The media can hardly say but but but it went on too long, because any suggestion it was going to finish, they scream blue murder about it ending while there was still covid cases.
Coventry named second-most dangerous city in Europe
https://www.coventrytelegraph.net/news/coventry-news/coventry-named-second-most-dangerous-24814094
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h9XUip3akeU
It's going to be a shock for the millions of people who think "the government did nothing for me" when Labour win and don't start throwing around the billions the way the Tories did, but instead start clawing it back through indirect taxation and fiscal drag.
That means the average earner in the UK now has the lowest effective personal tax rate since 1975
https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/spring-budget-2024-speech
Either Rishi is bad at politics or it isn't really true (owing to VAT) or it is true but false for most Conservative voters as they are paid more.
Idea: the French government should sell this hakf of Brittany to the Remainery British. Lots of wealthy Brits would love to live in a beautiful stone-built town half an hour from a spectacular coast
They’d soon fill it with yoga studios and thriving gastropubs
Jeez I just walked past a shitty car full of 20-somethings openly doing hard drugs. Smack I think
The Tories could spin the narrative of lower taxation, energy bills are coming down, inflation is down (for the moment), so interest rates cuts on the way.
That seems at least some narrative, rather than all your kids are doing national service...
CON: 20.3% (-24.4)
RFM: 16.2% (+14.1)
LDM: 11.5% (-0.3)
GRN: 6.0% (+3.3)
SNP: 3.0% (-1.0)
Changes w/ GE2019.
http://electionmaps.uk/polling
I think on those figures we are a normal polling error away from Reform as the main opposition.
https://conservativehome.com/2024/06/30/first-past-the-post-doesnt-work-for-anybody-farage/
E.g. cost of mortgages/rent is a huge determinant of how well-off people feel
For the last 14 years the Tories have chased the grey vote, the NIMBY vote etc and have done comparatively little to help younger people get on the property ladder.
Put simply, if your taxes have gone down by £100 a year but your mortgage has gone up by £1000 a year, are you going to say “Thanks for cutting my taxes!” Not many will.
Also - whether you think the increase in mortgage rates since the second half of 2022 was down to Liz Truss or not… a large amount of the public think it was down to Liz Truss. It’s very hard to come back from that.
So basically even if they do hire 41,500 against the 40,000 leaving, its absolutely at the fringe of some schools get 1 extra teacher.
But you are right versus population growth. There are now more GPs than ever, but no f##king chance of getting an appointment. Some of that is more people / more old people, it is also that raw numbers don't necessarily mean anything if people aren't working full time. I think the GP problem is made worse by lots choosing to do part-time.
So even adding 1500 teachers alone doesn't mean even more teacher hours if more are part-time.
But if one is a colourful leaflet, another is a typed addressed target letter, another a newsy newspaper and the last a handwritten addressed letter then at least one should get read. Different people are attracted to different styles of leaflets. You've got to cover all tastes. But they shouldn't all arrive on the same day.
Now I need to leave you again as I deliver yet another batch of hand written letters.
LibDems are firm favourites on Betfair (1.39) to win Didcot and Wantage, and are predicted winners by six out of the eight models. Labour should focus their resources elsewhere.
They don't.
Would have gone down well.
So Clinton is about as safe a lay as it gets.
M Obama ought to be much longer odds, but isn’t entirely impossible.
The Tories were never going to win the GE, but could still get 30% or so. You do that by having a narrative that is sensible.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/30/rishi-sunak-launches-defence-tories-record-election-campaign-nears-end
… Britain is better off than it was 14 years ago, Rishi Sunak has said, as the prime minister launched a combative defence of his party’s record in power with just four days to go until the election...
“Since 2010” is doing a lot of work, though.
I also expect them to get at least as big a voteshare as UKIP got in 2015 if not higher
The official opposition is the party with the second largest representation in the House of Commons. No one expects Reform to be that.
Let's see whether enough Reform votes materialise on polling day to place them third in the popular vote. Even that is not certain.
Drunk parents with kids. So many shit cars with dents. Tracksuits everywhere. And an actual sense of menace on a Sunday afternoon
Dark noom! - c’est ici
Its a problem they feel they really cannot raise due to the trouble they would get in but it’s clear that if, for example half of each year of med students are women and a large proportion, once trained at great time and expense, leave or work massively reduced hours , then there will be shortages.
Who knows what the solution is but people are very happy to highlight us losing trained doctors to foreign countries over money and that damage that does but less keen to highlight the number of doctors we lose to unchangeable facts of biology.
🇨🇳 Solar capacity added in May: 19 GW
🇺🇸 Solar capacity added in May: 2.4 GW
We need permitting reform ASAP to keep up.
https://x.com/AlecStapp/status/1806862037982523428
We had the biggest economic downturn since the war in 2008-09.
Now for complicated reasons in the cafe at Derby Arena, where a volleyball tournament is going on. Literally every competitor from every team is Asian. Some sort of inter-mosque event perhaps?
If Starmer loses far left loonies to the Greens, Hamas apologists/racists to the Greens or independents, and wins the election . . . That's a triple victory for Starmer.
But yes, there are more part-time GPs, and more retired GPs, and more doctors going abroad where they are better treated, and more leaving medicine because they see themselves falling behind their school chums who became lawyers, bankers and management consultants. And remarkably, this government has managed to engineer a crisis of medical unemployment at the same time as a shortage of doctors.
There again the City hadn't and hasn't fared better. Coming in on the train in 1981 there was a sign which read "Coventry, City of Skill and Opportunity" infront of a thousand unsold Triumph and Rover cars. The cars didn't move for the year I lived there.
Someone mentioned earlier about "Coventry University" which has a reasonable reputation for engineering. It evolved from the old Lanchester Polytechnic. The Nazi controversy revolves around Warwick University which is also in the City.
We already have the issue now, how do we assess kids through education. Its too easy for that lower level of education for LLMs to write decent enough guff.
‼️ BREAKING: TikTok suspend @reformparty_uk rally live steam while ANN WIDDECOMBE speaking, declaring it “hate speech”?! Widders? WTF?!
David Cameron was wealthy and privileged but knew it and went out of his way to connect. Even without speaking about his son which was a real human connection.
Sunak lacks that.
But I think he underestimates the proportion of voters whose vibes-based X on Thursday will be driven precisely by a desire for effective middle-management of the NHS, education, economy, rather than any sort of driven dogma, especially his.
There's a market for it, sure, but I think Reform's current polling is more or less a ceiling rather than a floor from which to build.
Its seems Sunak is surrounded by equally out of touch people. All those PR people who did his leadership campaign apparently are still there and all poshos.
https://x.com/jamesjonesesq/status/1807163599028429090
You also don't need to come out and say ok folks, your all going to get the sack in the next 10 years, its all over. Rather you think about the direction of travel and how to allocate resources to ensure that the country is better equipped for the changing landscape. One obvious move is we need more people with vocational skills, we need them now, we are certainly going to need them in the future.
The point I was making is that, despite importing one of their supposedly ‘top agents’ into my seat last time, the organisation and understanding on display from the Greens was pitiful. Which would worry me about staking too much money on Green wins.
Most of their more able people have come into politics from single issue campaigning on social media, rather than the hard school of council elections, and it shows.
Having put my initial £10 into Bet365 and put £4 on one of them, I have about 9 left it seems including the bonus as fun money.
Any ideas?
What converted them to Republican side?
Of course after polling day, even if they ended up with no MPs and badly underperforming he'd then pivot to saying what a great success it was with the 'establishment' and odds stacked against them etc.
But why is everybody Asian? I didn't ask that of course. But no clue was given.
- there's no doubt that the sacking of LRM and his replacement by SKS's mate has gone down like a bucket of sick among Labour activists.
- there's no active Labour campaigning in the constituency, but there was never going to be much even if LRM was still here - all resources have been redirected to Brighton Pavilion and the two Worthing seats.
- crucially, there's no Green campaign either - they are entirely focused on hanging on to Caroline Lucas's seat next door.
- you wouldn't even know there was an election going on if you didn't read PB.
In conclusion, turnout will be down and the Greens will get a lot more votes than their 4.6% in 2019 (my daughter, for one), but nowhere near enough to win it. If there was a challenger to Labour, it should be the Tories (35% in 2019 - they are strong in the coastal strip just outside Brighton that's in the constituency), but they seem to have completely given up, despite boundary changes benefiting them.
https://x.com/supertanskiii/status/1807146288573517880
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15Y1WBemPeejrwDR8dOxzmbJUrX00M7w3ijYsKD6848o/edit?gid=216108530#gid=216108530
If Guingamp was in Britain it would be in the top 20 loveliest towns in the country. But it’s not. Its in neglected northwest inland Brittany and they’re shooting up heroin by the shuttered fake Irish pub
This morning I did a 15 mile walk from the Nottinghamshire border up on to the Lincolnshire edge. This took me through half a dozen nice little rural villages. This is pretty solid blue territory.
The result of my observations?
Nothing. Zero. Zilch. Not a single poster or indication that the election is happening anywhere on the 15 mile walk. I did see one house with a front fence decorated half in Danish flags and half in English flags. I wondered whther last night's or tonight's match would bring the greater disappointment.
Oh and breaking in new boots on a 15 mile walk is painful.
Otherwise a thoroughly enjoyable morning.