Out and about in Southern Derbyshire today - Derby North, Mid Derbsyhire, South Derbyshire, Derbyshire Dales. No more placards than anywhere else, but saw my first and second Tory placards and also my first Reform placard. Greens particularly in evidence in Mid Derbyshire.
Now for complicated reasons in the cafe at Derby Arena, where a volleyball tournament is going on. Literally every competitor from every team is Asian. Some sort of inter-mosque event perhaps?
I've seen Tory placards pop up in the last week that weren't previously there.
Trouble is, I've helped the Greens in one of their top target seats, and their ground campaign or even basic understanding of what they are supposed to be doing is pitifully shambolic, which doesn't inspire confidence in their wider prospects. At least with the LibDems we can be confident that in their top targets it's going to be well organised and professional on the ground, right through to close of poll.
I'm involved in the Labour effort in Didcot and Wantage, which is supposedly a LibDem target, and unofficially a Labour target too. The LibDem effort is overwhelmingly in delivering leaflets - up to 4 different ones on the same day to the same household. They are certainly much larger in number than the Labour leaflets, and the Tories are barely trying in leaflets although it's a solid Tory seat. Labour and LibDems are roughly competitive in number of posters, with zero Tories and a couple of Reform.
The LibDems could win, but I'm not impressed by the professionalism. If you get 1 leaflet you might read it. If you get 4 from the same source on the same day, the impression is that someone is trying to fulfil a quota, and you certainly don't read them unless you're very obsessive. More to the point, I'd argue that you're less likely to take the campaign seriously - but I could be wrong? The evident calculation is that floating anti-Tory voters take the delivery of 4 leaflets in a day as a sign that the party is really keen.
FWIW we've now had more than 10 Labour leaflets here in the Banbury constituency, over on the other side of the county. If excess leafleting is counter-productive, you might want to tell Sean Woodcock that.
(We also got canvassed for the first time yesterday despite displaying a LibDem diamond in the window, which suggests that the squeeze operation is underway.)
Kudos to them for canvassing a house already displaying an opposing poster!
My favourite canvassing anecdote of all time is the evening I gathered with my two fellow candidates to canvass the Hill Farm Estate in east London. The very first house at the bottom of Summit Drive was displaying a Tory poster, and my colleagues both quickly agreed that I should start on that side, while they took the other.
From the register I could see that the house looked like having a couple with two adult children living at home, so I decided to adopt a friendly-humorous approach of referring to the poster in their window but asking whether I could speak to the children in case they had a different view from their parents.
To my surprise, the man of the house admitted that he’d only put up the Tory poster to annoy the guy who lived opposite, who was apparently a Labour member - being canvassed at that very minute by one of my colleagues. Straight away, I offered a LibDem poster as a replacement, on the grounds that we were likely to be re-elected while both Labour and Tories were destined to lose. Amazingly - and I was very lucky to canvass a guy with a good sense of humour - he agreed to take the Tory poster down and put my orange diamond up straight away. And so he did, there and then.
I so enjoyed walking back to the road with that LibDem diamond now in the window - with my colleague returning opposite from that Labour member’s doorstep with a refusal. I just smiled at my colleagues and continued down my side of the road, and kept the secret of my remarkable success until after the election.
I love a long odds value loser. Just put a fiver on Alicia Kearns for next Conservative leader.
This is the most fun election ever for me, in the sense that I put a decent whack on Labour Majority at 5/1 in Jan 2022, right after I saw prices on food going up in the shops weekly, and knew the incumbent would be punished at the next election irrespective of whatever else. So I am green more or less whatever dumb long odds bets I put on. Two of my favourites are Labour 500+ seats at 25/1 and Con 150-200 seats at 8/1, still available at 7/1. Hat tip also to Casino for Libs to gain Epsom and Ewell at 14/1, trading at 2/1 last time I checked.
I think the Con / RefUK split makes it hard to find value in this market, because there's no real precedent and a strong RefUK showing could cost the Conservatives almost all their seats without winning any themselves, whereas a couple of points less for the RefUKers could see the Conservatives coasting 150 seats plus.
Because I'm green thanks to the Jan 2022 bet, I still have a decent amount of money in the tank for bets on the night. PB has always been an awesome source of tips, I've usually made more from bets on the night than on bets placed during the campaign. Andy_JS's spreadsheet and Alistair's tip on SNP seats spring to mind.
I reckon the LibDem/Tory new marginals in the southern Home Counties will offer good betting opportunities on the night. The MRPs put many of them on a knife-edge. We need to identify the seats within that group that are likely to declare the earliest - the swings there should tell us whether the LibDems are really going to sweep the blue wall, or whether most of the Tories in the safer spots will hang on. Whichever, we can then pile on accordingly.
Stratford-on-Avon. Listed as a 2.30am declaration and a LibDem stretch target. If the LibDems take that, then start looking at other LD stretches that offer value.
I hate the pastiche cathedral. When I lived there in 1980-81, the cathedral was much revered. Nonetheless I don't believe it has aged well. There was more left of Coventry Cathedral than Cologne and Cologne Cathedral has been rebuilt beautifully.
That's a really interesting comment, and could you explain a little more?
At first glance I could take that as ingrowing conservatism / traditionalism - in the same way that some people dismiss Prayer Book Anglicans as people hiding from a contemporary style of faith, whilst it is imo about the value of inhabiting familiar language.
My take on Coventry Cathedral is that is in some measure the rediscovery of the value of light as light as we see for example in some East Anglian parish churches, and in very few medieval cathedrals, which are more about light as seen in illumination of stained glass. I have visited all the English CofE cathedral except Truro and Exeter, but mainly some years ago.
Off the top of my head, the only major medieval cathedral that imo has a similar sense is Southwell Minster, which is fairly limited in stained glass, and austere rather than gorgeous in decoration. Except perhaps for the chapter house sculptures, which are complex but imo better for not being painted.
I'd point to several parish church cathedrals which have a similar feel, such as Bradford, Derby and Portsmouth.
I'd perhaps regard a rebuilt Medieval Cathedral as being more 'pastiche', and a loss of what can be created in developing the architectural / spiritual / aesthetic tradition rather than seeking to recreate what is from the past.
Yes, I think Galloway's Party, the Greens and Corbyn and maybe even Reform could take a couple of seats off Labour.
Peter Kellner, former President of Yougov, has now come out with his general election forecast as mentioned last thread which looks very close to 1997 (and indeed 2001) and looks much as I expect it to be too.
Peter Kellner prediction in Sunday Times:
• Labour: 37 per cent of the Britain-wide vote, 400 seats • Conservative: 24 per cent, 155 seats • Liberal Democrats: 13 per cent, 50 seats • Reform UK: 13 per cent, 2 seats • Green: 7 per cent, 2 seats • SNP: 33 per cent in Scotland, 18 seats • Other (including Northern Ireland): 23 seats • Labour majority: 150.
Labour and Tories slightly down on 1997 on voteshare and seats though, LDs slightly up on 1997 on seats but worse on voteshare.
Greens winning seats unlike 1997 and Reform also forecast to win seats which the Referendum Party failed to do then. SNP well down on 2019 but also still more seats than they got in 1997
That feels more right than the polling to me. But maybe my feelz aren't important? Normalcy bias is a strong motivator. Even for those whose job it is.
Kellner's figures not far off the latest Yougov, except Tories a bit higher and Reform a bit lower
If you really believe Kellner's prediction that the Tories will win 155 seats, then why not consider taking up Wm Hills' current offer of 8/1 for them to win between 150 - 199 seats. Personally I prefer the evens money odds available that they will win between 50 - 99 seats.
At the moment I think it will be 100-150 Tory seats, I think the Tories would need to be on 25%+ in most polls next week to get over 150
I love a long odds value loser. Just put a fiver on Alicia Kearns for next Conservative leader.
This is the most fun election ever for me, in the sense that I put a decent whack on Labour Majority at 5/1 in Jan 2022, right after I saw prices on food going up in the shops weekly, and knew the incumbent would be punished at the next election irrespective of whatever else. So I am green more or less whatever dumb long odds bets I put on. Two of my favourites are Labour 500+ seats at 25/1 and Con 150-200 seats at 8/1, still available at 7/1. Hat tip also to Casino for Libs to gain Epsom and Ewell at 14/1, trading at 2/1 last time I checked.
I think the Con / RefUK split makes it hard to find value in this market, because there's no real precedent and a strong RefUK showing could cost the Conservatives almost all their seats without winning any themselves, whereas a couple of points less for the RefUKers could see the Conservatives coasting 150 seats plus.
Because I'm green thanks to the Jan 2022 bet, I still have a decent amount of money in the tank for bets on the night. PB has always been an awesome source of tips, I've usually made more from bets on the night than on bets placed during the campaign. Andy_JS's spreadsheet and Alistair's tip on SNP seats spring to mind.
I reckon the LibDem/Tory new marginals in the southern Home Counties will offer good betting opportunities on the night. The MRPs put many of them on a knife-edge. We need to identify the seats within that group that are likely to declare the earliest - the swings there should tell us whether the LibDems are really going to sweep the blue wall, or whether most of the Tories in the safer spots will hang on. Whichever, we can then pile on accordingly.
This is how the seats were declared last time, with times.
If Bill Wiggin's seat goes Green that really would be end of days for the Conservatives. Although (as Leominster) it was Labour once. (when Temple-Morris crossed the floor).
This is actually one of the sketchiest towns I’ve seen in Europe. There’s a kebab shop (one of the few places open) with a man yelling very loudly in Arabic at his phone. Every other shop on that street is permanently shuttered
Drunk parents with kids. So many shit cars with dents. Tracksuits everywhere. And an actual sense of menace on a Sunday afternoon
Placard anecdote. Not seen many placards this year but turning on a bend on a street yesterday suddenly saw a load of diamonds. 5 very large ones, looking like 5 consecutive houses.
I said "seems to be quite a few Lib Dem signs here", my wife pointed out it was just the two houses, they simply had 5 diamonds between them.
Quite amusing the way they'd done it. One house had three diamonds, one in the corner of his garden, by the fence with one neighbour, one by the edge of his driveway, then one the other side of his drive by the fence with the other neighbour. Next door but one had two up in a similar way.
All together visually it had the appearance of being much more than just two houses, quite amusing.
Another probably useless observation on placards/posters.
This morning I did a 15 mile walk from the Nottinghamshire border up on to the Lincolnshire edge. This took me through half a dozen nice little rural villages. This is pretty solid blue territory.
The result of my observations?
Nothing. Zero. Zilch. Not a single poster or indication that the election is happening anywhere on the 15 mile walk. I did see one house with a front fence decorated half in Danish flags and half in English flags. I wondered whther last night's or tonight's match would bring the greater disappointment.
Oh and breaking in new boots on a 15 mile walk is painful.
Otherwise a thoroughly enjoyable morning.
Breaking in new boots should be a thing of the past. It is 2024 FFS. I gather football clubs have machines to do it because they don't want players on £10,000 a week limping around with blisters.
Trouble is, I've helped the Greens in one of their top target seats, and their ground campaign or even basic understanding of what they are supposed to be doing is pitifully shambolic, which doesn't inspire confidence in their wider prospects. At least with the LibDems we can be confident that in their top targets it's going to be well organised and professional on the ground, right through to close of poll.
I'm involved in the Labour effort in Didcot and Wantage, which is supposedly a LibDem target, and unofficially a Labour target too. The LibDem effort is overwhelmingly in delivering leaflets - up to 4 different ones on the same day to the same household. They are certainly much larger in number than the Labour leaflets, and the Tories are barely trying in leaflets although it's a solid Tory seat. Labour and LibDems are roughly competitive in number of posters, with zero Tories and a couple of Reform.
The LibDems could win, but I'm not impressed by the professionalism. If you get 1 leaflet you might read it. If you get 4 from the same source on the same day, the impression is that someone is trying to fulfil a quota, and you certainly don't read them unless you're very obsessive. More to the point, I'd argue that you're less likely to take the campaign seriously - but I could be wrong? The evident calculation is that floating anti-Tory voters take the delivery of 4 leaflets in a day as a sign that the party is really keen.
FWIW we've now had more than 10 Labour leaflets here in the Banbury constituency, over on the other side of the county. If excess leafleting is counter-productive, you might want to tell Sean Woodcock that.
(We also got canvassed for the first time yesterday despite displaying a LibDem diamond in the window, which suggests that the squeeze operation is underway.)
A household may have 2 or more people in it. Just because one person’s put up a poster, doesn’t mean the other person is going to vote the same way, so still worth canvassing.
Another probably useless observation on placards/posters.
This morning I did a 15 mile walk from the Nottinghamshire border up on to the Lincolnshire edge. This took me through half a dozen nice little rural villages. This is pretty solid blue territory.
The result of my observations?
Nothing. Zero. Zilch. Not a single poster or indication that the election is happening anywhere on the 15 mile walk. I did see one house with a front fence decorated half in Danish flags and half in English flags. I wondered whther last night's or tonight's match would bring the greater disappointment.
Oh and breaking in new boots on a 15 mile walk is painful.
Otherwise a thoroughly enjoyable morning.
Breaking in new boots should be a thing of the past. It is 2024 FFS. I gather football clubs have machines to do it because they don't want players on £10,000 a week limping around with blisters.
Not only that, they have little boot warmer ovens for their boots before they go out to train, so their tootsies don't get cold.
Its actually quite insane the lengths now top top players go. They have individualised sole plates, with individualised stud and mould patterns...
Placard anecdote. Not seen many placards this year but turning on a bend on a street yesterday suddenly saw a load of diamonds. 5 very large ones, looking like 5 consecutive houses.
I said "seems to be quite a few Lib Dem signs here", my wife pointed out it was just the two houses, they simply had 5 diamonds between them.
Quite amusing the way they'd done it. One house had three diamonds, one in the corner of his garden, by the fence with one neighbour, one by the edge of his driveway, then one the other side of his drive by the fence with the other neighbour. Next door but one had two up in a similar way.
All together visually it had the appearance of being much more than just two houses, quite amusing.
I love a long odds value loser. Just put a fiver on Alicia Kearns for next Conservative leader.
This is the most fun election ever for me, in the sense that I put a decent whack on Labour Majority at 5/1 in Jan 2022, right after I saw prices on food going up in the shops weekly, and knew the incumbent would be punished at the next election irrespective of whatever else. So I am green more or less whatever dumb long odds bets I put on. Two of my favourites are Labour 500+ seats at 25/1 and Con 150-200 seats at 8/1, still available at 7/1. Hat tip also to Casino for Libs to gain Epsom and Ewell at 14/1, trading at 2/1 last time I checked.
I think the Con / RefUK split makes it hard to find value in this market, because there's no real precedent and a strong RefUK showing could cost the Conservatives almost all their seats without winning any themselves, whereas a couple of points less for the RefUKers could see the Conservatives coasting 150 seats plus.
Because I'm green thanks to the Jan 2022 bet, I still have a decent amount of money in the tank for bets on the night. PB has always been an awesome source of tips, I've usually made more from bets on the night than on bets placed during the campaign. Andy_JS's spreadsheet and Alistair's tip on SNP seats spring to mind.
I reckon the LibDem/Tory new marginals in the southern Home Counties will offer good betting opportunities on the night. The MRPs put many of them on a knife-edge. We need to identify the seats within that group that are likely to declare the earliest - the swings there should tell us whether the LibDems are really going to sweep the blue wall, or whether most of the Tories in the safer spots will hang on. Whichever, we can then pile on accordingly.
This is how the seats were declared last time, with times.
First interesting one looks like Basildon and Billericay at 12.15am. Any word on how well Not Billericay Dickie is doing?
(In 1992-7, the Conservatives' Marginals Club Tie was green/light blue/dark blue. The colour of fresh Basil, and the colours of the Major universities where you are taught by a Don.)
Trouble is, I've helped the Greens in one of their top target seats, and their ground campaign or even basic understanding of what they are supposed to be doing is pitifully shambolic, which doesn't inspire confidence in their wider prospects. At least with the LibDems we can be confident that in their top targets it's going to be well organised and professional on the ground, right through to close of poll.
I'm involved in the Labour effort in Didcot and Wantage, which is supposedly a LibDem target, and unofficially a Labour target too. The LibDem effort is overwhelmingly in delivering leaflets - up to 4 different ones on the same day to the same household. They are certainly much larger in number than the Labour leaflets, and the Tories are barely trying in leaflets although it's a solid Tory seat. Labour and LibDems are roughly competitive in number of posters, with zero Tories and a couple of Reform.
The LibDems could win, but I'm not impressed by the professionalism. If you get 1 leaflet you might read it. If you get 4 from the same source on the same day, the impression is that someone is trying to fulfil a quota, and you certainly don't read them unless you're very obsessive. More to the point, I'd argue that you're less likely to take the campaign seriously - but I could be wrong? The evident calculation is that floating anti-Tory voters take the delivery of 4 leaflets in a day as a sign that the party is really keen.
FWIW we've now had more than 10 Labour leaflets here in the Banbury constituency, over on the other side of the county. If excess leafleting is counter-productive, you might want to tell Sean Woodcock that.
(We also got canvassed for the first time yesterday despite displaying a LibDem diamond in the window, which suggests that the squeeze operation is underway.)
A household may have 2 or more people in it. Just because one person’s put up a poster, doesn’t mean the other person is going to vote the same way, so still worth canvassing.
As in this infamous example in Oxford East:
A heartwarming example of how politics does not have to divide families and cohabitees.
Trouble is, I've helped the Greens in one of their top target seats, and their ground campaign or even basic understanding of what they are supposed to be doing is pitifully shambolic, which doesn't inspire confidence in their wider prospects. At least with the LibDems we can be confident that in their top targets it's going to be well organised and professional on the ground, right through to close of poll.
I'm involved in the Labour effort in Didcot and Wantage, which is supposedly a LibDem target, and unofficially a Labour target too. The LibDem effort is overwhelmingly in delivering leaflets - up to 4 different ones on the same day to the same household. They are certainly much larger in number than the Labour leaflets, and the Tories are barely trying in leaflets although it's a solid Tory seat. Labour and LibDems are roughly competitive in number of posters, with zero Tories and a couple of Reform.
The LibDems could win, but I'm not impressed by the professionalism. If you get 1 leaflet you might read it. If you get 4 from the same source on the same day, the impression is that someone is trying to fulfil a quota, and you certainly don't read them unless you're very obsessive. More to the point, I'd argue that you're less likely to take the campaign seriously - but I could be wrong? The evident calculation is that floating anti-Tory voters take the delivery of 4 leaflets in a day as a sign that the party is really keen.
FWIW we've now had more than 10 Labour leaflets here in the Banbury constituency, over on the other side of the county. If excess leafleting is counter-productive, you might want to tell Sean Woodcock that.
(We also got canvassed for the first time yesterday despite displaying a LibDem diamond in the window, which suggests that the squeeze operation is underway.)
A household may have 2 or more people in it. Just because one person’s put up a poster, doesn’t mean the other person is going to vote the same way, so still worth canvassing.
As in this infamous example in Oxford East:
I am not sure Mrs U and I have ever voted the same way.
Yes, I think Galloway's Party, the Greens and Corbyn and maybe even Reform could take a couple of seats off Labour.
Peter Kellner, former President of Yougov, has now come out with his general election forecast as mentioned last thread which looks very close to 1997 (and indeed 2001) and looks much as I expect it to be too.
Peter Kellner prediction in Sunday Times:
• Labour: 37 per cent of the Britain-wide vote, 400 seats • Conservative: 24 per cent, 155 seats • Liberal Democrats: 13 per cent, 50 seats • Reform UK: 13 per cent, 2 seats • Green: 7 per cent, 2 seats • SNP: 33 per cent in Scotland, 18 seats • Other (including Northern Ireland): 23 seats • Labour majority: 150.
Labour and Tories slightly down on 1997 on voteshare and seats though, LDs slightly up on 1997 on seats but worse on voteshare.
Greens winning seats unlike 1997 and Reform also forecast to win seats which the Referendum Party failed to do then. SNP well down on 2019 but also still more seats than they got in 1997
That feels more right than the polling to me. But maybe my feelz aren't important? Normalcy bias is a strong motivator. Even for those whose job it is.
Kellner's figures not far off the latest Yougov, except Tories a bit higher and Reform a bit lower
If you really believe Kellner's prediction that the Tories will win 155 seats, then why not consider taking up Wm Hills' current offer of 8/1 for them to win between 150 - 199 seats. Personally I prefer the evens money odds available that they will win between 50 - 99 seats.
At the moment I think it will be 100-150 Tory seats, I think the Tories would need to be on 25%+ in most polls next week to get over 150
Agreed, and even then it would depend on the Laboru percentage. But 20-25 and their range is huge.
Trouble is, I've helped the Greens in one of their top target seats, and their ground campaign or even basic understanding of what they are supposed to be doing is pitifully shambolic, which doesn't inspire confidence in their wider prospects. At least with the LibDems we can be confident that in their top targets it's going to be well organised and professional on the ground, right through to close of poll.
I'm involved in the Labour effort in Didcot and Wantage, which is supposedly a LibDem target, and unofficially a Labour target too. The LibDem effort is overwhelmingly in delivering leaflets - up to 4 different ones on the same day to the same household. They are certainly much larger in number than the Labour leaflets, and the Tories are barely trying in leaflets although it's a solid Tory seat. Labour and LibDems are roughly competitive in number of posters, with zero Tories and a couple of Reform.
The LibDems could win, but I'm not impressed by the professionalism. If you get 1 leaflet you might read it. If you get 4 from the same source on the same day, the impression is that someone is trying to fulfil a quota, and you certainly don't read them unless you're very obsessive. More to the point, I'd argue that you're less likely to take the campaign seriously - but I could be wrong? The evident calculation is that floating anti-Tory voters take the delivery of 4 leaflets in a day as a sign that the party is really keen.
FWIW we've now had more than 10 Labour leaflets here in the Banbury constituency, over on the other side of the county. If excess leafleting is counter-productive, you might want to tell Sean Woodcock that.
(We also got canvassed for the first time yesterday despite displaying a LibDem diamond in the window, which suggests that the squeeze operation is underway.)
A household may have 2 or more people in it. Just because one person’s put up a poster, doesn’t mean the other person is going to vote the same way, so still worth canvassing.
As in this infamous example in Oxford East:
A heartwarming example of how politics does not have to divide families and cohabitees.
Or the site of a future murder.
How far back in this?
Wasn't it Ed Balls who insisted on being in all the student political societies - it could be the solo digs of his political offspring.
Last night I thought I might have a swarm of bees in the wisteria - popped round to see if it was in their tree. No one in, so had a listen.
N just popped back - not in but their doorbell detected me.
He suggests it was a drone being flown over by an amateur, having had a similar noise and spotted a drone recently. I believe flying over residential is technically legal for sub-250g drones, if socially unwelcome from a privacy standpoint.
Has anyone had this? We are in a close to town centre residential area.
My concerns are criminals doing research, or what we used to call nosey parkers.
A drone flying over your house is perfectly legal if it's on the way somewhere, and the operator is following all the guidelines and regs from the CAA. If it's mooching about near your property (say the neighbour is videoing his house), you'd have to prove your neighbour is invading your privacy, as in that case, the operator is not acting illegally. If it's loitering around your house and looking into your garden/windows then that's causing a nuisance. The difficult bit is people believing they own the airspace over their property, when they don't. The Police don't tend to know the rules either.
Indeed. The best way to avoid ever seeing a drone over your house, is to buy a house right next to the airport.
You just have to put up with the slight inconvenience of your house shaking to bits 24/7....
YOu don't even have to be right next door. Find a small airfield somewhere quiet and they will still have a susbatantial no fly zone around them. RAF Barkston just up tghe road from me which is use for light aricraft training for the military has a 2NM exclusion zone around it. Also much of Lincolnshire around me is covered by a larger Waddington no fly zone which is a boz about 20NM by 10NM
I've still had nothing from from 3 of the 7 candidates in my constituency. I know people in other parts have had 3-4 from the Tories alone.
My part is a bit of a LD stronghold in recent years so maybe the Tories are not bothering with it, but you'd think the LDs could send at least one thing round, but no.
Makes me think Labour will indeed be the main opposition (or even win in an extinction event scenario) despite no real local presence.
Find it hard to believe these estimates of Lib Dem seats, myself they will do very well with 30, and more is a bonus.
Their percentage vote share doesn't look great to me in most cases, they are reliant on a lot of very efficient voting in target areas to quadruple their seats per some estimates.
They clearly can be that efficient as seen in Scotland, but it makes predicting it very hard.
Find it hard to believe these estimates of Lib Dem seats, myself they will do very well with 30, and more is a bonus.
Let’s just hope the LibDems are still thinking that way, rather than getting carried away like last time.
The job of LibDems during election week is to shore up those people who have previously indicated support but are now beginning to waver; going after new converts so late in the campaign is a fool’s errand.
I think on those figures we are a normal polling error away from Reform as the main opposition.
NF has dropped 6m votes and 15 MPs into his Camilla Tominey interview as a prediction. I would sense he's not wanting to overcook it, and is therefore being conservative, and would be hoping for 25 MPs. That's what I am hoping for too.
If Reform had the savviness and organisation of the Liberal Democrats, then yes.
They don't.
Farage also has an interest in talking Reform up beyond their likely seat total/votes. He needs to create expectations much more on the upside than to manage them down, as to maximise their vote/win seats they need to convince lots of their target voters giving Reform their vote really will have a worthwhile outcome beyond it being a protest vote. So forming a reasonably sized caucus of MPs and becoming a significant minor party at Westminster fulfils that.
Of course after polling day, even if they ended up with no MPs and badly underperforming he'd then pivot to saying what a great success it was with the 'establishment' and odds stacked against them etc.
No, he'll go full on Trump... "we wuz robbed, it's a conspiracy, trust no one" and all that MAGA crap.
I think because Farage is such a fan of Trump he forgets sometimes the same tactics will not be as effective here. He's managed sufficient success in attention and votes, and may break through with some MPs, it will give him options to reshape the Tories even without any merger, but go Trumpian in his moaning and whining and he really won't be able to make Reform be mainstream, people won't buy that shit.
I hate the pastiche cathedral. When I lived there in 1980-81, the cathedral was much revered. Nonetheless I don't believe it has aged well. There was more left of Coventry Cathedral than Cologne and Cologne Cathedral has been rebuilt beautifully.
That's a really interesting comment, and could you explain a little more?
At first glance I could take that as ingrowing conservatism / traditionalism - in the same way that some people dismiss Prayer Book Anglicans as people hiding from a contemporary style of faith, whilst it is imo about the value of inhabiting familiar language.
My take on Coventry Cathedral is that is in some measure the rediscovery of the value of light as light as we see for example in some East Anglian parish churches, and in very few medieval cathedrals, which are more about light as seen in illumination of stained glass. I have visited all the English CofE cathedral except Truro and Exeter, but mainly some years ago.
Off the top of my head, the only major medieval cathedral that imo has a similar sense is Southwell Minster, which is fairly limited in stained glass, and austere rather than gorgeous in decoration. Except perhaps for the chapter house sculptures, which are complex but imo better for not being painted.
I'd point to several parish church cathedrals which have a similar feel, such as Bradford, Derby and Portsmouth.
I'd perhaps regard a rebuilt Medieval Cathedral as being more 'pastiche', and a loss of what can be created in developing the architectural / spiritual / aesthetic tradition rather than seeking to recreate what is from the past.
Yeah. No. Fuck that stupid shit
You want to know why so much of France is beautiful and Britain is ugly? Its not just luck
The French rebuilt, if they could. Take lovely St Malo, which everyone adore. The really old bit that gets the sighs is a total fake, the French rebuilt it from scratch after it was bombed flat in WW2. And now it’s gorgeous and no one cares that it’s “pastiche”
Exeter and Coventry and many other towns were just as lovely as st malo. And we built piles of shit
Yes, I think Galloway's Party, the Greens and Corbyn and maybe even Reform could take a couple of seats off Labour.
Peter Kellner, former President of Yougov, has now come out with his general election forecast as mentioned last thread which looks very close to 1997 (and indeed 2001) and looks much as I expect it to be too.
Peter Kellner prediction in Sunday Times:
• Labour: 37 per cent of the Britain-wide vote, 400 seats • Conservative: 24 per cent, 155 seats • Liberal Democrats: 13 per cent, 50 seats • Reform UK: 13 per cent, 2 seats • Green: 7 per cent, 2 seats • SNP: 33 per cent in Scotland, 18 seats • Other (including Northern Ireland): 23 seats • Labour majority: 150.
Labour and Tories slightly down on 1997 on voteshare and seats though, LDs slightly up on 1997 on seats but worse on voteshare.
Greens winning seats unlike 1997 and Reform also forecast to win seats which the Referendum Party failed to do then. SNP well down on 2019 but also still more seats than they got in 1997
That feels more right than the polling to me. But maybe my feelz aren't important? Normalcy bias is a strong motivator. Even for those whose job it is.
Kellner's figures not far off the latest Yougov, except Tories a bit higher and Reform a bit lower
If you really believe Kellner's prediction that the Tories will win 155 seats, then why not consider taking up Wm Hills' current offer of 8/1 for them to win between 150 - 199 seats. Personally I prefer the evens money odds available that they will win between 50 - 99 seats.
At the moment I think it will be 100-150 Tory seats, I think the Tories would need to be on 25%+ in most polls next week to get over 150
Agreed, and even then it would depend on the Laboru percentage. But 20-25 and their range is huge.
FPTP has a cliff edge, and the Conservatives are scarily close to it. But, lest we forget in all the excitement...
Even the best projections for the Conservatives are a result that:
a) is objectively terrible, and
b) will look that way to fortunate people who haven't followed the minutiae. 150 is way better than 50, but I don't think normal people will care.
Joe Biden has told donors that his debate performance converted more undecided voters than Donald Trump.
What converted them to Republican side?
The donors need to pull the plug. Now.
Have you seen the money people pump into Trump no matter how nuts he gets? Democrat donors are probably equally ridiculous in throwing money at individuals they shouldn't.
The fact that Hamas apologists don't want to vote Labour is a feature, not a bug.
Totally agreed Sandy.
If Starmer loses far left loonies to the Greens, Hamas apologists/racists to the Greens or independents, and wins the election . . . That's a triple victory for Starmer.
I have little doubt that sort of thing has tempted across many a centrist or centre right voter to back Starmer.
That infuriates them even more of course, they don't like floating voters voting for 'their' side, but it's how you win.
I think on those figures we are a normal polling error away from Reform as the main opposition.
NF has dropped 6m votes and 15 MPs into his Camilla Tominey interview as a prediction. I would sense he's not wanting to overcook it, and is therefore being conservative, and would be hoping for 25 MPs. That's what I am hoping for too.
If Reform had the savviness and organisation of the Liberal Democrats, then yes.
They don't.
Farage also has an interest in talking Reform up beyond their likely seat total/votes. He needs to create expectations much more on the upside than to manage them down, as to maximise their vote/win seats they need to convince lots of their target voters giving Reform their vote really will have a worthwhile outcome beyond it being a protest vote. So forming a reasonably sized caucus of MPs and becoming a significant minor party at Westminster fulfils that.
Of course after polling day, even if they ended up with no MPs and badly underperforming he'd then pivot to saying what a great success it was with the 'establishment' and odds stacked against them etc.
No, he'll go full on Trump... "we wuz robbed, it's a conspiracy, trust no one" and all that MAGA crap.
I think because Farage is such a fan of Trump he forgets sometimes the same tactics will not be as effective here. He's managed sufficient success in attention and votes, and may break through with some MPs, it will give him options to reshape the Tories even without any merger, but go Trumpian in his moaning and whining and he really won't be able to make Reform be mainstream, people won't buy that shit.
I don't think he cares.
I think he's an egotistical attention whore who does what he wants for shits and giggles. And getting big paydays from American media.
Actually doing day to day politics in this country would be boring. And not pay like the American media does.
I think on those figures we are a normal polling error away from Reform as the main opposition.
NF has dropped 6m votes and 15 MPs into his Camilla Tominey interview as a prediction. I would sense he's not wanting to overcook it, and is therefore being conservative, and would be hoping for 25 MPs. That's what I am hoping for too.
If Reform had the savviness and organisation of the Liberal Democrats, then yes.
They don't.
I'm generally skeptical about the worth of local organisation, and optimistic about the power of town down media heavy campaigning in the modern world, but even I would say the lack of organisational structures and people with Reform may make a big difference from them nominally looking like they might win 10 MPs, and actually only winning 1 MP.
I think on those figures we are a normal polling error away from Reform as the main opposition.
NF has dropped 6m votes and 15 MPs into his Camilla Tominey interview as a prediction. I would sense he's not wanting to overcook it, and is therefore being conservative, and would be hoping for 25 MPs. That's what I am hoping for too.
If Reform had the savviness and organisation of the Liberal Democrats, then yes.
They don't.
Farage also has an interest in talking Reform up beyond their likely seat total/votes. He needs to create expectations much more on the upside than to manage them down, as to maximise their vote/win seats they need to convince lots of their target voters giving Reform their vote really will have a worthwhile outcome beyond it being a protest vote. So forming a reasonably sized caucus of MPs and becoming a significant minor party at Westminster fulfils that.
Of course after polling day, even if they ended up with no MPs and badly underperforming he'd then pivot to saying what a great success it was with the 'establishment' and odds stacked against them etc.
No, he'll go full on Trump... "we wuz robbed, it's a conspiracy, trust no one" and all that MAGA crap.
I think because Farage is such a fan of Trump he forgets sometimes the same tactics will not be as effective here. He's managed sufficient success in attention and votes, and may break through with some MPs, it will give him options to reshape the Tories even without any merger, but go Trumpian in his moaning and whining and he really won't be able to make Reform be mainstream, people won't buy that shit.
I don't think he cares.
I think he's an egotistical attention whore who does what he wants for shits and giggles. And getting big paydays from American media.
Actually doing day to day politics in this country would be boring. And not pay like the American media does.
I don't think he wants to work in the daily grind of British politics, certainly. He wants to have a big impact which can influence the Tories, and that is fantastic for his media brand. Others can take forward the idea of replacing Tories or one day governing.
I love a long odds value loser. Just put a fiver on Alicia Kearns for next Conservative leader.
This is the most fun election ever for me, in the sense that I put a decent whack on Labour Majority at 5/1 in Jan 2022, right after I saw prices on food going up in the shops weekly, and knew the incumbent would be punished at the next election irrespective of whatever else. So I am green more or less whatever dumb long odds bets I put on. Two of my favourites are Labour 500+ seats at 25/1 and Con 150-200 seats at 8/1, still available at 7/1. Hat tip also to Casino for Libs to gain Epsom and Ewell at 14/1, trading at 2/1 last time I checked.
I think the Con / RefUK split makes it hard to find value in this market, because there's no real precedent and a strong RefUK showing could cost the Conservatives almost all their seats without winning any themselves, whereas a couple of points less for the RefUKers could see the Conservatives coasting 150 seats plus.
Because I'm green thanks to the Jan 2022 bet, I still have a decent amount of money in the tank for bets on the night. PB has always been an awesome source of tips, I've usually made more from bets on the night than on bets placed during the campaign. Andy_JS's spreadsheet and Alistair's tip on SNP seats spring to mind.
I reckon the LibDem/Tory new marginals in the southern Home Counties will offer good betting opportunities on the night. The MRPs put many of them on a knife-edge. We need to identify the seats within that group that are likely to declare the earliest - the swings there should tell us whether the LibDems are really going to sweep the blue wall, or whether most of the Tories in the safer spots will hang on. Whichever, we can then pile on accordingly.
Stratford-on-Avon. Listed as a 2.30am declaration and a LibDem stretch target. If the LibDems take that, then start looking at other LD stretches that offer value.
Possibly, although it’s perhaps a little too Midlands-y to provide a bellwether as to how Surrey and Wiltshire and Somerset will vote?
A couple of weeks back, me and the dog spent a night in Alderminster, in that constituency. A village with a pub and a sleepy river and two churches, one current, but no actual village. Sadly there wasn’t a single sign that the election was on, so I came away with no useful intelligence.
Another probably useless observation on placards/posters.
This morning I did a 15 mile walk from the Nottinghamshire border up on to the Lincolnshire edge. This took me through half a dozen nice little rural villages. This is pretty solid blue territory.
The result of my observations?
Nothing. Zero. Zilch. Not a single poster or indication that the election is happening anywhere on the 15 mile walk. I did see one house with a front fence decorated half in Danish flags and half in English flags. I wondered whther last night's or tonight's match would bring the greater disappointment.
Oh and breaking in new boots on a 15 mile walk is painful.
Otherwise a thoroughly enjoyable morning.
The best thing with new boots is to hoover your house in them. An easy way to break them in and if they are a disaster then you can probably return them if in good condition.
I love a long odds value loser. Just put a fiver on Alicia Kearns for next Conservative leader.
This is the most fun election ever for me, in the sense that I put a decent whack on Labour Majority at 5/1 in Jan 2022, right after I saw prices on food going up in the shops weekly, and knew the incumbent would be punished at the next election irrespective of whatever else. So I am green more or less whatever dumb long odds bets I put on. Two of my favourites are Labour 500+ seats at 25/1 and Con 150-200 seats at 8/1, still available at 7/1. Hat tip also to Casino for Libs to gain Epsom and Ewell at 14/1, trading at 2/1 last time I checked.
I think the Con / RefUK split makes it hard to find value in this market, because there's no real precedent and a strong RefUK showing could cost the Conservatives almost all their seats without winning any themselves, whereas a couple of points less for the RefUKers could see the Conservatives coasting 150 seats plus.
Because I'm green thanks to the Jan 2022 bet, I still have a decent amount of money in the tank for bets on the night. PB has always been an awesome source of tips, I've usually made more from bets on the night than on bets placed during the campaign. Andy_JS's spreadsheet and Alistair's tip on SNP seats spring to mind.
I reckon the LibDem/Tory new marginals in the southern Home Counties will offer good betting opportunities on the night. The MRPs put many of them on a knife-edge. We need to identify the seats within that group that are likely to declare the earliest - the swings there should tell us whether the LibDems are really going to sweep the blue wall, or whether most of the Tories in the safer spots will hang on. Whichever, we can then pile on accordingly.
Stratford-on-Avon. Listed as a 2.30am declaration and a LibDem stretch target. If the LibDems take that, then start looking at other LD stretches that offer value.
An extraordinary proportion of the "LibDem/Tory new marginals" are really three-way (LD/Tory/Lab) marginals, with currently far more campaigning energy coming from Labour, and Tories apparently devoid of the cash and ground resources to put up any kind of fight. With patchily effective diversions often being thrown into an already confusing situation from Reform to the right, and Corbynites or Gaza worriers potentially on the other side and often with boundary changes, I'd steer clear of committing money on these seats just because the odds look intriguing.
You really need deep, constituency-specific, insights into what's currently going on - and, with the past decade's collapse of proper regional press, all you'll get from the website of what used to be proper local papers are click & bait stories. I'm mistrustful of canvassing returns (because people saying they don't know may well really not know whether they'll vote OR might just be shy Tories or shy Reformers), and I suspect answers to opinion polls are even shakier.
We've got three such constituencies within a few miles of our house, and we're involved in such campaigning as our party national HQ recommends (and that recommendation has subtly changed over the past few weeks). I wouldn't waste a penny betting on the outcome of any of them.
Unless on the night you can spot seriously unanticipated trends that really do indicate shifts in these triple-marginals, I suspect they're all likely to be great ways of making bookies richer. But good luck anyway.
I love a long odds value loser. Just put a fiver on Alicia Kearns for next Conservative leader.
This is the most fun election ever for me, in the sense that I put a decent whack on Labour Majority at 5/1 in Jan 2022, right after I saw prices on food going up in the shops weekly, and knew the incumbent would be punished at the next election irrespective of whatever else. So I am green more or less whatever dumb long odds bets I put on. Two of my favourites are Labour 500+ seats at 25/1 and Con 150-200 seats at 8/1, still available at 7/1. Hat tip also to Casino for Libs to gain Epsom and Ewell at 14/1, trading at 2/1 last time I checked.
I think the Con / RefUK split makes it hard to find value in this market, because there's no real precedent and a strong RefUK showing could cost the Conservatives almost all their seats without winning any themselves, whereas a couple of points less for the RefUKers could see the Conservatives coasting 150 seats plus.
Because I'm green thanks to the Jan 2022 bet, I still have a decent amount of money in the tank for bets on the night. PB has always been an awesome source of tips, I've usually made more from bets on the night than on bets placed during the campaign. Andy_JS's spreadsheet and Alistair's tip on SNP seats spring to mind.
I reckon the LibDem/Tory new marginals in the southern Home Counties will offer good betting opportunities on the night. The MRPs put many of them on a knife-edge. We need to identify the seats within that group that are likely to declare the earliest - the swings there should tell us whether the LibDems are really going to sweep the blue wall, or whether most of the Tories in the safer spots will hang on. Whichever, we can then pile on accordingly.
Stratford-on-Avon. Listed as a 2.30am declaration and a LibDem stretch target. If the LibDems take that, then start looking at other LD stretches that offer value.
An extraordinary proportion of the "LibDem/Tory new marginals" are really three-way (LD/Tory/Lab) marginals, with currently far more campaigning energy coming from Labour, and Tories apparently devoid of the cash and ground resources to put up any kind of fight. With patchily effective diversions often being thrown into an already confusing situation from Reform to the right, and Corbynites or Gaza worriers potentially on the other side and often with boundary changes, I'd steer clear of committing money on these seats just because the odds look intriguing.
You really need deep, constituency-specific, insights into what's currently going on - and, with the past decade's collapse of proper regional press, all you'll get from the website of what used to be proper local papers are click & bait stories. I'm mistrustful of canvassing returns (because people saying they don't know may well really not know whether they'll vote OR might just be shy Tories or shy Reformers), and I suspect answers to opinion polls are even shakier.
We've got three such constituencies within a few miles of our house, and we're involved in such campaigning as our party national HQ recommends (and that recommendation has subtly changed over the past few weeks). I wouldn't waste a penny betting on the outcome of any of them.
Unless on the night you can spot seriously unanticipated trends that really do indicate shifts in these triple-marginals, I suspect they're all likely to be great ways of making bookies richer. But good luck anyway.
As I said above. On election night we really need to be looking for a steer from a Tory/LibDem seat where Labour isn’t in the running, and aren’t running a Palmer-style wrecking operation.
I’ve been out and about in Didcot & Wantage today.
As an experiment, I counted placards by party. I was heading from my house in Drayton into south Didcot to do some leafleting, and then back home. In order to avoid biasing the results by my knowledge of placard locations, I followed the satnav route each way (it brought me back by a different route, which was useful for this).
Lib Dem diamonds: 17 Labour placards: 1 Tory placards: 0 Green: 0 Reform: 0
I happen to know the locations of 100+ more diamonds (out of the 300+ I know are in the constituency) and the locations of 4 more Labour placards and 2 Green placards (I’ve done a LOT of driving around during the campaign). No Tory or Reform have been seen by me or anyone else I know.
Leaflets received from other parties (I’ll spare you Lib Dem leaflet details as they’ve been discussed to death above), with the county council by-election leaflets (held on 20 June) separated out:
Conservative: 2 GE hand-delivered, 2 GE posted, 1 GE freepost, plus 1 by-election hand-delivered Labour: 1 GE hand-delivered and 1 by-election (simultaneously dropped, ironically) and 1 GE freepost Green: 2 by-election hand-delivered, 1 GE freepost SDP: 1 GE hand-delivered Reform: 1 GE freepost
I love a long odds value loser. Just put a fiver on Alicia Kearns for next Conservative leader.
This is the most fun election ever for me, in the sense that I put a decent whack on Labour Majority at 5/1 in Jan 2022, right after I saw prices on food going up in the shops weekly, and knew the incumbent would be punished at the next election irrespective of whatever else. So I am green more or less whatever dumb long odds bets I put on. Two of my favourites are Labour 500+ seats at 25/1 and Con 150-200 seats at 8/1, still available at 7/1. Hat tip also to Casino for Libs to gain Epsom and Ewell at 14/1, trading at 2/1 last time I checked.
I think the Con / RefUK split makes it hard to find value in this market, because there's no real precedent and a strong RefUK showing could cost the Conservatives almost all their seats without winning any themselves, whereas a couple of points less for the RefUKers could see the Conservatives coasting 150 seats plus.
Because I'm green thanks to the Jan 2022 bet, I still have a decent amount of money in the tank for bets on the night. PB has always been an awesome source of tips, I've usually made more from bets on the night than on bets placed during the campaign. Andy_JS's spreadsheet and Alistair's tip on SNP seats spring to mind.
I reckon the LibDem/Tory new marginals in the southern Home Counties will offer good betting opportunities on the night. The MRPs put many of them on a knife-edge. We need to identify the seats within that group that are likely to declare the earliest - the swings there should tell us whether the LibDems are really going to sweep the blue wall, or whether most of the Tories in the safer spots will hang on. Whichever, we can then pile on accordingly.
Stratford-on-Avon. Listed as a 2.30am declaration and a LibDem stretch target. If the LibDems take that, then start looking at other LD stretches that offer value.
An extraordinary proportion of the "LibDem/Tory new marginals" are really three-way (LD/Tory/Lab) marginals, with currently far more campaigning energy coming from Labour, and Tories apparently devoid of the cash and ground resources to put up any kind of fight. With patchily effective diversions often being thrown into an already confusing situation from Reform to the right, and Corbynites or Gaza worriers potentially on the other side and often with boundary changes, I'd steer clear of committing money on these seats just because the odds look intriguing.
You really need deep, constituency-specific, insights into what's currently going on - and, with the past decade's collapse of proper regional press, all you'll get from the website of what used to be proper local papers are click & bait stories. I'm mistrustful of canvassing returns (because people saying they don't know may well really not know whether they'll vote OR might just be shy Tories or shy Reformers), and I suspect answers to opinion polls are even shakier.
We've got three such constituencies within a few miles of our house, and we're involved in such campaigning as our party national HQ recommends (and that recommendation has subtly changed over the past few weeks). I wouldn't waste a penny betting on the outcome of any of them.
Unless on the night you can spot seriously unanticipated trends that really do indicate shifts in these triple-marginals, I suspect they're all likely to be great ways of making bookies richer. But good luck anyway.
I really wonder whether much canvassing is going on these days. Do the parties have the volunteers to do it? My purely local impression is that there is very little canvassing, leafleting or poster display, and that the campaign is predominantly in the media and online now.
Similar considerations here, Ben. I'm really glad I don't live just down the road and have to decide whether to oppose the excellent Alex Chalk in Cheltenham. No such problems with Lazy Laurence Robertson here in Tewkesbury, where the Yellow Diamonds continue to proliferate.
We took a trip out to Pershore last night and were surprised to see the same patterns there. I can just about buy Gloucestershire as a new Liberal fiefdom, but Worcestershire ffs? Not a Blue, Red, or Green flag in sight. I checked when I got home and the various sources confirmed my assumption that West Worcestershire is about as Tory as it gets. If you want to back The Peril you can get 33/1, no problem. Yet they definitely seem to be Trying There.
A misallocation of resources or something in the wind?
Not sure, but the local LDs are quite bullish about Tewkesbury, so I'm satisfied now that I didn't lead you guys astray when I put this up as a bet a couple of weeks ago.
Didn’t you also mention a profitable arbitrage on this ?
It was a good one at the time, N, but is negligable now. The bookies woke up to the fact Labour had no chance and now have it as the kind of two-horse race it always was.
Lovely fucked up Guingamp is full of angry political posters and graffiti. Most of it I can work out - eg “vous avez Zemmour, nous on l’anour”
I love the poster which has turned Nutella into Bardella - a brown paste made of shit. All of these are defaced by Le Pen supporters
But I’m completely confounded by the Breton language sign on a bridge with “Fuck BZH” scrawled all over it. BZH is short for Breizh - which is Breton for the Breton language or Brittany
So someone is saying, in English, fuck Brittany (or fuck the Breton language). This is in Brittany
Can any pb brainiac get their heads around that? Is it angry Welsh tourists disappointed that the Bretons have done so little to preserve a language similar to Welsh? That seems unlikely
It’s like someone took 10,000 people from Liverpool and dropped them in Verona, but forced them all to speak French
Idea: the French government should sell this hakf of Brittany to the Remainery British. Lots of wealthy Brits would love to live in a beautiful stone-built town half an hour from a spectacular coast
They’d soon fill it with yoga studios and thriving gastropubs
Jeez I just walked past a shitty car full of 20-somethings openly doing hard drugs. Smack I think
Did you feel a tug like Bilbo in the vicinity of the ring?
It’s totally mad. The centre of the town is a sequence of islands and parks surrounded by 17-19th stone houses, villas, mills
If Guingamp was in Britain it would be in the top 20 loveliest towns in the country. But it’s not. Its in neglected northwest inland Brittany and they’re shooting up heroin by the shuttered fake Irish pub
Bergerac had a bit of that though nowhere near as stark. Beautiful old town centre with nice buzzing bars, good food, chichi shops plus the majestic Dordogne, the burbs where our Air BnB was more bleak: screaming child from dark apartment block, terrible little corner shop selling bugger all, endless deserted blacked-out streets (does everyone go to bed at 9pm in France?). Made the mistake of going south of the river for a change of walk, ended up on a hellish retail strip that could grace any town in the Anglo Saxon world. Compensation of a fantastic quality food supermarket and a free bus back to town though.
The one thing that struck me was how polite everyone was, most everyone greeting you with a bon jour or soir on the riverside path, even the slightly lairy dope smoking teenagers on skateboards.
I love a long odds value loser. Just put a fiver on Alicia Kearns for next Conservative leader.
This is the most fun election ever for me, in the sense that I put a decent whack on Labour Majority at 5/1 in Jan 2022, right after I saw prices on food going up in the shops weekly, and knew the incumbent would be punished at the next election irrespective of whatever else. So I am green more or less whatever dumb long odds bets I put on. Two of my favourites are Labour 500+ seats at 25/1 and Con 150-200 seats at 8/1, still available at 7/1. Hat tip also to Casino for Libs to gain Epsom and Ewell at 14/1, trading at 2/1 last time I checked.
I think the Con / RefUK split makes it hard to find value in this market, because there's no real precedent and a strong RefUK showing could cost the Conservatives almost all their seats without winning any themselves, whereas a couple of points less for the RefUKers could see the Conservatives coasting 150 seats plus.
Because I'm green thanks to the Jan 2022 bet, I still have a decent amount of money in the tank for bets on the night. PB has always been an awesome source of tips, I've usually made more from bets on the night than on bets placed during the campaign. Andy_JS's spreadsheet and Alistair's tip on SNP seats spring to mind.
I reckon the LibDem/Tory new marginals in the southern Home Counties will offer good betting opportunities on the night. The MRPs put many of them on a knife-edge. We need to identify the seats within that group that are likely to declare the earliest - the swings there should tell us whether the LibDems are really going to sweep the blue wall, or whether most of the Tories in the safer spots will hang on. Whichever, we can then pile on accordingly.
Stratford-on-Avon. Listed as a 2.30am declaration and a LibDem stretch target. If the LibDems take that, then start looking at other LD stretches that offer value.
Possibly, although it’s perhaps a little too Midlands-y to provide a bellwether as to how Surrey and Wiltshire and Somerset will vote?
A couple of weeks back, me and the dog spent a night in Alderminster, in that constituency. A village with a pub and a sleepy river and two churches, one current, but no actual village. Sadly there wasn’t a single sign that the election was on, so I came away with no useful intelligence.
As I've been repeating as nauseum, solar is getting insanely cheap.
Think about that China number for a moment. In two months, China will have added about the same solar capacity as total UK electricity demand.
Panels are about 2p per watt at the moment. The cost is installation
Indeed: but if you are building something anyway - like a house, office, factory, shed , parking garage- then adding solar panels becomes practically a no brainer.
This is how shit the Tory campaign is that Paul Johnson says that people on average earning their tax burden is lower than anytime in the past 50 years. It is the rich and rich companies who are paying more than either.
The narrative is the opposite. He even said that Hunt made this claims and he didn't believe it, they had to actually check and found it to be true.
Truly astonishing. Spreadsheet Rishi no good at spreadsheets even. How can a former chancellor not have known this? It would have blown the debate wide open if he had gone with this not the £2000 lie
Jeremy Hunt said as much in his budget speech so it is not a new claim.
Either Rishi is bad at politics or it isn't really true (owing to VAT) or it is true but false for most Conservative voters as they are paid more.
It’s not just taxes that determine how people feel about the economy though.
E.g. cost of mortgages/rent is a huge determinant of how well-off people feel
For the last 14 years the Tories have chased the grey vote, the NIMBY vote etc and have done comparatively little to help younger people get on the property ladder.
Put simply, if your taxes have gone down by £100 a year but your mortgage has gone up by £1000 a year, are you going to say “Thanks for cutting my taxes!” Not many will.
Also - whether you think the increase in mortgage rates since the second half of 2022 was down to Liz Truss or not… a large amount of the public think it was down to Liz Truss. It’s very hard to come back from that.
They should have pledged to end the fiscal drag earlier.
Would have gone down well.
There's lots they should have done. But the party is led by an out of touch, incompetent leader who has never had too much month at the end of the money and has no connection to ordinary voters.
David Cameron was wealthy and privileged but knew it and went out of his way to connect. Even without speaking about his son which was a real human connection.
Sunak lacks that.
Remember it is a big reason that they hired the likes of Andy Coulson. Cameron and Osborne recognised that they might well have blind spots to issues effecting regular people, so went and got a working class Essex lad to provide that grounding.
Its seems Sunak is surrounded by equally out of touch people. All those PR people who did his leadership campaign apparently are still there and all poshos.
It is not just that Rishi brought his mates into Number 10 but the cumulative effect of doing that after Boris and then Liz Truss had purged a lot of experienced staff. That is why there is no-one left in Downing Street or CCHQ who knows how to work an umbrella, or even to look out the window to see if it is raining.
I have just remembered that clip of Bozo trying to put up an umbrella and looking like a total pillock.
I love a long odds value loser. Just put a fiver on Alicia Kearns for next Conservative leader.
This is the most fun election ever for me, in the sense that I put a decent whack on Labour Majority at 5/1 in Jan 2022, right after I saw prices on food going up in the shops weekly, and knew the incumbent would be punished at the next election irrespective of whatever else. So I am green more or less whatever dumb long odds bets I put on. Two of my favourites are Labour 500+ seats at 25/1 and Con 150-200 seats at 8/1, still available at 7/1. Hat tip also to Casino for Libs to gain Epsom and Ewell at 14/1, trading at 2/1 last time I checked.
I think the Con / RefUK split makes it hard to find value in this market, because there's no real precedent and a strong RefUK showing could cost the Conservatives almost all their seats without winning any themselves, whereas a couple of points less for the RefUKers could see the Conservatives coasting 150 seats plus.
Because I'm green thanks to the Jan 2022 bet, I still have a decent amount of money in the tank for bets on the night. PB has always been an awesome source of tips, I've usually made more from bets on the night than on bets placed during the campaign. Andy_JS's spreadsheet and Alistair's tip on SNP seats spring to mind.
I reckon the LibDem/Tory new marginals in the southern Home Counties will offer good betting opportunities on the night. The MRPs put many of them on a knife-edge. We need to identify the seats within that group that are likely to declare the earliest - the swings there should tell us whether the LibDems are really going to sweep the blue wall, or whether most of the Tories in the safer spots will hang on. Whichever, we can then pile on accordingly.
Stratford-on-Avon. Listed as a 2.30am declaration and a LibDem stretch target. If the LibDems take that, then start looking at other LD stretches that offer value.
This one intrigues me. Con were clear favorites on Betfair to start with but the LDs are well ahead now. There seems to be something going on there, so I wouldn't take it as a bellweather.
About £10k has been wagered, which is a lot for a single constituency market.
Edit: I believe ScottP is a constituent so if he's seen around wearing a rolex and new Armani suit we know for sure something is up.
It’s like someone took 10,000 people from Liverpool and dropped them in Verona, but forced them all to speak French
Idea: the French government should sell this hakf of Brittany to the Remainery British. Lots of wealthy Brits would love to live in a beautiful stone-built town half an hour from a spectacular coast
They’d soon fill it with yoga studios and thriving gastropubs
Jeez I just walked past a shitty car full of 20-somethings openly doing hard drugs. Smack I think
Did you feel a tug like Bilbo in the vicinity of the ring?
It’s totally mad. The centre of the town is a sequence of islands and parks surrounded by 17-19th stone houses, villas, mills
If Guingamp was in Britain it would be in the top 20 loveliest towns in the country. But it’s not. Its in neglected northwest inland Brittany and they’re shooting up heroin by the shuttered fake Irish pub
Bergerac had a bit of that though nowhere near as stark. Beautiful old town centre with nice buzzing bars, good food, chichi shops plus the majestic Dordogne, the burbs where our Air BnB was more bleak: screaming child from dark apartment block, terrible little corner shop selling bugger all, endless deserted blacked-out streets (does everyone go to bed at 9pm in France?). Made the mistake of going south of the river for a change of walk, ended up on a hellish retail strip that could grace any town in the Anglo Saxon world. Compensation of a fantastic quality food supermarket and a free bus back to town though.
The one thing that struck me was how polite everyone was, most everyone greeting you with a bon jour or soir on the riverside path, even the slightly lairy dope smoking teenagers on skateboards.
France is bewitchingly paradoxical. And yes the towns can be quite dystopian and depressing at night/sundays/public holidays
“The English take their pleasures sadly” was i believe a French barb. I sometimes wonder if it could be thrown back
Lovely fucked up Guingamp is full of angry political posters and graffiti. Most of it I can work out - eg “vous avez Zemmour, nous on l’anour”
I love the poster which has turned Nutella into Bardella - a brown paste made of shit. All of these are defaced by Le Pen supporters
But I’m completely confounded by the Breton language sign on a bridge with “Fuck BZH” scrawled all over it. BZH is short for Breizh - which is Breton for the Breton language or Brittany
So someone is saying, in English, fuck Brittany (or fuck the Breton language). This is in Brittany
Can any pb brainiac get their heads around that? Is it angry Welsh tourists disappointed that the Bretons have done so little to preserve a language similar to Welsh? That seems unlikely
It could be rival football fans coming to watch their team play Guingamp (who are second division but occasionally first division).
I guess it’s like fans going to watch their team play Chelsea writing “fuck London”. The French really like using the English “fuck” as a swear word.
I love a long odds value loser. Just put a fiver on Alicia Kearns for next Conservative leader.
This is the most fun election ever for me, in the sense that I put a decent whack on Labour Majority at 5/1 in Jan 2022, right after I saw prices on food going up in the shops weekly, and knew the incumbent would be punished at the next election irrespective of whatever else. So I am green more or less whatever dumb long odds bets I put on. Two of my favourites are Labour 500+ seats at 25/1 and Con 150-200 seats at 8/1, still available at 7/1. Hat tip also to Casino for Libs to gain Epsom and Ewell at 14/1, trading at 2/1 last time I checked.
I think the Con / RefUK split makes it hard to find value in this market, because there's no real precedent and a strong RefUK showing could cost the Conservatives almost all their seats without winning any themselves, whereas a couple of points less for the RefUKers could see the Conservatives coasting 150 seats plus.
Because I'm green thanks to the Jan 2022 bet, I still have a decent amount of money in the tank for bets on the night. PB has always been an awesome source of tips, I've usually made more from bets on the night than on bets placed during the campaign. Andy_JS's spreadsheet and Alistair's tip on SNP seats spring to mind.
I reckon the LibDem/Tory new marginals in the southern Home Counties will offer good betting opportunities on the night. The MRPs put many of them on a knife-edge. We need to identify the seats within that group that are likely to declare the earliest - the swings there should tell us whether the LibDems are really going to sweep the blue wall, or whether most of the Tories in the safer spots will hang on. Whichever, we can then pile on accordingly.
Stratford-on-Avon. Listed as a 2.30am declaration and a LibDem stretch target. If the LibDems take that, then start looking at other LD stretches that offer value.
This one intrigues me. Con were clear favorites on Betfair to start with but the LDs are well ahead now. There seems to be something going on there, so I wouldn't take it as a bellweather.
About £10k has been wagered, which is a lot for a single constituency market.
Edit: I believe ScottP is a constituent so if he's seen around wearing a rolex and new Armani suit we know for sure something is up.
The Lib Dems have been VERY active. Multiple leaflet drops. Canvassing! Son of the former Tory MP campaigning for them.
Also where I saw my first RefUK poster, which probably helps the yellow peril
I am not sure if Zahawi running away helps of hinders the Tory vote
As I've been repeating as nauseum, solar is getting insanely cheap.
Think about that China number for a moment. In two months, China will have added about the same solar capacity as total UK electricity demand.
Panels are about 2p per watt at the moment. The cost is installation
Indeed: but if you are building something anyway - like a house, office, factory, shed , parking garage- then adding solar panels becomes practically a no brainer.
if you are building anything - solar panels are cheaper than any other roof covering...
I love a long odds value loser. Just put a fiver on Alicia Kearns for next Conservative leader.
This is the most fun election ever for me, in the sense that I put a decent whack on Labour Majority at 5/1 in Jan 2022, right after I saw prices on food going up in the shops weekly, and knew the incumbent would be punished at the next election irrespective of whatever else. So I am green more or less whatever dumb long odds bets I put on. Two of my favourites are Labour 500+ seats at 25/1 and Con 150-200 seats at 8/1, still available at 7/1. Hat tip also to Casino for Libs to gain Epsom and Ewell at 14/1, trading at 2/1 last time I checked.
I think the Con / RefUK split makes it hard to find value in this market, because there's no real precedent and a strong RefUK showing could cost the Conservatives almost all their seats without winning any themselves, whereas a couple of points less for the RefUKers could see the Conservatives coasting 150 seats plus.
Because I'm green thanks to the Jan 2022 bet, I still have a decent amount of money in the tank for bets on the night. PB has always been an awesome source of tips, I've usually made more from bets on the night than on bets placed during the campaign. Andy_JS's spreadsheet and Alistair's tip on SNP seats spring to mind.
I reckon the LibDem/Tory new marginals in the southern Home Counties will offer good betting opportunities on the night. The MRPs put many of them on a knife-edge. We need to identify the seats within that group that are likely to declare the earliest - the swings there should tell us whether the LibDems are really going to sweep the blue wall, or whether most of the Tories in the safer spots will hang on. Whichever, we can then pile on accordingly.
Stratford-on-Avon. Listed as a 2.30am declaration and a LibDem stretch target. If the LibDems take that, then start looking at other LD stretches that offer value.
Possibly, although it’s perhaps a little too Midlands-y to provide a bellwether as to how Surrey and Wiltshire and Somerset will vote?
A couple of weeks back, me and the dog spent a night in Alderminster, in that constituency. A village with a pub and a sleepy river and two churches, one current, but no actual village. Sadly there wasn’t a single sign that the election was on, so I came away with no useful intelligence.
Did you have any useful intelligence to begin with.... 😜
I hate the pastiche cathedral. When I lived there in 1980-81, the cathedral was much revered. Nonetheless I don't believe it has aged well. There was more left of Coventry Cathedral than Cologne and Cologne Cathedral has been rebuilt beautifully.
That's a really interesting comment, and could you explain a little more?
At first glance I could take that as ingrowing conservatism / traditionalism - in the same way that some people dismiss Prayer Book Anglicans as people hiding from a contemporary style of faith, whilst it is imo about the value of inhabiting familiar language.
My take on Coventry Cathedral is that is in some measure the rediscovery of the value of light as light as we see for example in some East Anglian parish churches, and in very few medieval cathedrals, which are more about light as seen in illumination of stained glass. I have visited all the English CofE cathedral except Truro and Exeter, but mainly some years ago.
Off the top of my head, the only major medieval cathedral that imo has a similar sense is Southwell Minster, which is fairly limited in stained glass, and austere rather than gorgeous in decoration. Except perhaps for the chapter house sculptures, which are complex but imo better for not being painted.
I'd point to several parish church cathedrals which have a similar feel, such as Bradford, Derby and Portsmouth.
I'd perhaps regard a rebuilt Medieval Cathedral as being more 'pastiche', and a loss of what can be created in developing the architectural / spiritual / aesthetic tradition rather than seeking to recreate what is from the past.
Yeah. No. Fuck that stupid shit
You want to know why so much of France is beautiful and Britain is ugly? Its not just luck
The French rebuilt, if they could. Take lovely St Malo, which everyone adore. The really old bit that gets the sighs is a total fake, the French rebuilt it from scratch after it was bombed flat in WW2. And now it’s gorgeous and no one cares that it’s “pastiche”
Exeter and Coventry and many other towns were just as lovely as st malo. And we built piles of shit
You are so predictably reactionary. I think Coventry Cathedral is beautiful. Simple, well built and moving The problem of the rest of the city centre is that it was largely wooden. It couldn't be easily rebuilt, and it wasn't. They replaced the crammed city with mostly space. It's not the quality of the buildings in Coventry that's the problem, it's the lack of density and the way, for example, the university buildings occupy so much space beyond the building perimeter. Wooden Coventry was destroyed in the blitz. Now the city needs to find a way of filling in the gaps and restoring the old street lines.
I hate the pastiche cathedral. When I lived there in 1980-81, the cathedral was much revered. Nonetheless I don't believe it has aged well. There was more left of Coventry Cathedral than Cologne and Cologne Cathedral has been rebuilt beautifully.
That's a really interesting comment, and could you explain a little more?
At first glance I could take that as ingrowing conservatism / traditionalism - in the same way that some people dismiss Prayer Book Anglicans as people hiding from a contemporary style of faith, whilst it is imo about the value of inhabiting familiar language.
My take on Coventry Cathedral is that is in some measure the rediscovery of the value of light as light as we see for example in some East Anglian parish churches, and in very few medieval cathedrals, which are more about light as seen in illumination of stained glass. I have visited all the English CofE cathedral except Truro and Exeter, but mainly some years ago.
Off the top of my head, the only major medieval cathedral that imo has a similar sense is Southwell Minster, which is fairly limited in stained glass, and austere rather than gorgeous in decoration. Except perhaps for the chapter house sculptures, which are complex but imo better for not being painted.
I'd point to several parish church cathedrals which have a similar feel, such as Bradford, Derby and Portsmouth.
I'd perhaps regard a rebuilt Medieval Cathedral as being more 'pastiche', and a loss of what can be created in developing the architectural / spiritual / aesthetic tradition rather than seeking to recreate what is from the past.
Yeah. No. Fuck that stupid shit
You want to know why so much of France is beautiful and Britain is ugly? Its not just luck
The French rebuilt, if they could. Take lovely St Malo, which everyone adore. The really old bit that gets the sighs is a total fake, the French rebuilt it from scratch after it was bombed flat in WW2. And now it’s gorgeous and no one cares that it’s “pastiche”
Exeter and Coventry and many other towns were just as lovely as st malo. And we built piles of shit
You are so predictably reactionary. I think Coventry Cathedral is beautiful. Simple, well built and moving The problem of the rest of the city centre is that it was largely wooden. It couldn't be easily rebuilt, and it wasn't. They replaced the crammed city with mostly space. It's not the quality of the buildings in Coventry that's the problem, it's the lack of density and the way, for example, the university buildings occupy so much space beyond the building perimeter. Wooden Coventry was destroyed in the blitz. Now the city needs to find a way of filling in the gaps and restoring the old street lines.
How is that "reactionary" ?
The real "reaction" was from the pompous snobbish brutalists who decided it was an idea canvass to create their own monstrosity in "reaction" to the opportunity.
You capture the attitude of British elites perfectly.
And Verstappen is an entitled brat who doesn’t believe the rules apply to him.
I suspect Lando is slightly less of a fan after today, too.
Nico Rosberg and Lewis Hamilton were also the best of friends, until the gloves came off in a championship fight. Not difficult to imagine all the pally younger drivers going the same way, as they become in with a shout of actually winning.
Comments
Which rather underlines the problem for the Dems
She is certainly quite a strange woman.
Not many. But one or two.
@JLPartnersPolls
NEW: JLP SRP model projection in The Sunday Times
🔴 LABOUR: 450 seats
🔵 CONSERVATIVE: 105 seats
🟠 LIB DEM: 55 seats
🟡 SNP: 15 seats
🟤 PLAID CYMRU: 3 seats
🟣 REFORM UK: 2 seats
🟢 GREEN: 1 seat
🟥 LABOUR majority of 250
My favourite canvassing anecdote of all time is the evening I gathered with my two fellow candidates to canvass the Hill Farm Estate in east London. The very first house at the bottom of Summit Drive was displaying a Tory poster, and my colleagues both quickly agreed that I should start on that side, while they took the other.
From the register I could see that the house looked like having a couple with two adult children living at home, so I decided to adopt a friendly-humorous approach of referring to the poster in their window but asking whether I could speak to the children in case they had a different view from their parents.
To my surprise, the man of the house admitted that he’d only put up the Tory poster to annoy the guy who lived opposite, who was apparently a Labour member - being canvassed at that very minute by one of my colleagues. Straight away, I offered a LibDem poster as a replacement, on the grounds that we were likely to be re-elected while both Labour and Tories were destined to lose. Amazingly - and I was very lucky to canvass a guy with a good sense of humour - he agreed to take the Tory poster down and put my orange diamond up straight away. And so he did, there and then.
I so enjoyed walking back to the road with that LibDem diamond now in the window - with my colleague returning opposite from that Labour member’s doorstep with a refusal. I just smiled at my colleagues and continued down my side of the road, and kept the secret of my remarkable success until after the election.
At first glance I could take that as ingrowing conservatism / traditionalism - in the same way that some people dismiss Prayer Book Anglicans as people hiding from a contemporary style of faith, whilst it is imo about the value of inhabiting familiar language.
My take on Coventry Cathedral is that is in some measure the rediscovery of the value of light as light as we see for example in some East Anglian parish churches, and in very few medieval cathedrals, which are more about light as seen in illumination of stained glass. I have visited all the English CofE cathedral except Truro and Exeter, but mainly some years ago.
Off the top of my head, the only major medieval cathedral that imo has a similar sense is Southwell Minster, which is fairly limited in stained glass, and austere rather than gorgeous in decoration. Except perhaps for the chapter house sculptures, which are complex but imo better for not being painted.
I'd point to several parish church cathedrals which have a similar feel, such as Bradford, Derby and Portsmouth.
I'd perhaps regard a rebuilt Medieval Cathedral as being more 'pastiche', and a loss of what can be created in developing the architectural / spiritual / aesthetic tradition rather than seeking to recreate what is from the past.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1mVF_IPhgNgMar-oH3Q4XhWJnpVt4UiECLkFhDIXwZlY/edit?pli=1&gid=0#gid=0
What’s an SRP though?
I said "seems to be quite a few Lib Dem signs here", my wife pointed out it was just the two houses, they simply had 5 diamonds between them.
Quite amusing the way they'd done it. One house had three diamonds, one in the corner of his garden, by the fence with one neighbour, one by the edge of his driveway, then one the other side of his drive by the fence with the other neighbour. Next door but one had two up in a similar way.
All together visually it had the appearance of being much more than just two houses, quite amusing.
https://www.itv.com/news/2024-06-30/bangladesh-high-commission-sends-letter-to-starmer-about-concerning-remarks
Its actually quite insane the lengths now top top players go. They have individualised sole plates, with individualised stud and mould patterns...
The secret world of football boots
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O_b9naD8Irw
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/estimated-declaration-times-general-election-093817984.html
First interesting one looks like Basildon and Billericay at 12.15am. Any word on how well Not Billericay Dickie is doing?
(In 1992-7, the Conservatives' Marginals Club Tie was green/light blue/dark blue. The colour of fresh Basil, and the colours of the Major universities where you are taught by a Don.)
LDs maybe a bit high, SNP a bit low, but Greens and Reform will struggle to get over the line so limited seats makes sense.
Or the site of a future murder.
Wasn't it Ed Balls who insisted on being in all the student political societies - it could be the solo digs of his political offspring.
Edit:
https://nats-uk.ead-it.com/cms-nats/opencms/en/uas-restriction-zones/#Dronesafe_Map
My part is a bit of a LD stronghold in recent years so maybe the Tories are not bothering with it, but you'd think the LDs could send at least one thing round, but no.
Makes me think Labour will indeed be the main opposition (or even win in an extinction event scenario) despite no real local presence.
They clearly can be that efficient as seen in Scotland, but it makes predicting it very hard.
The job of LibDems during election week is to shore up those people who have previously indicated support but are now beginning to waver; going after new converts so late in the campaign is a fool’s errand.
Here's an article about the 650000 volunteers at the 2017 German elections
I think there are many benefits.
You want to know why so much of France is beautiful and Britain is ugly? Its not just luck
The French rebuilt, if they could. Take lovely St Malo, which everyone adore. The really old bit that gets the sighs is a total fake, the French rebuilt it from scratch after it was bombed flat in WW2. And now it’s gorgeous and no one cares that it’s “pastiche”
Exeter and Coventry and many other towns were just as lovely as st malo. And we built piles of shit
Even the best projections for the Conservatives are a result that:
a) is objectively terrible, and
b) will look that way to fortunate people who haven't followed the minutiae. 150 is way better than 50, but I don't think normal people will care.
Remember Oscar, snitches gets stitches.
“Glastonbury, eat your heart out.”
Sir Ed Davey shouts as he waves around a pool noodle at an aqua aerobics class.
Just four days to go until the election…
https://x.com/DannyWittenberg/status/1807347063790669974
That infuriates them even more of course, they don't like floating voters voting for 'their' side, but it's how you win.
MV under investigation for an unsafe release now. Fingers crossed he gets a 10s stop/go penalty.
I think he's an egotistical attention whore who does what he wants for shits and giggles. And getting big paydays from American media.
Actually doing day to day politics in this country would be boring. And not pay like the American media does.
https://twitter.com/pipmadeley/status/1807395121878470811
He deserves a 5 race ban for that unsafe release.
A couple of weeks back, me and the dog spent a night in Alderminster, in that constituency. A village with a pub and a sleepy river and two churches, one current, but no actual village. Sadly there wasn’t a single sign that the election was on, so I came away with no useful intelligence.
You really need deep, constituency-specific, insights into what's currently going on - and, with the past decade's collapse of proper regional press, all you'll get from the website of what used to be proper local papers are click & bait stories. I'm mistrustful of canvassing returns (because people saying they don't know may well really not know whether they'll vote OR might just be shy Tories or shy Reformers), and I suspect answers to opinion polls are even shakier.
We've got three such constituencies within a few miles of our house, and we're involved in such campaigning as our party national HQ recommends (and that recommendation has subtly changed over the past few weeks). I wouldn't waste a penny betting on the outcome of any of them.
Unless on the night you can spot seriously unanticipated trends that really do indicate shifts in these triple-marginals, I suspect they're all likely to be great ways of making bookies richer. But good luck anyway.
As an experiment, I counted placards by party. I was heading from my house in Drayton into south Didcot to do some leafleting, and then back home. In order to avoid biasing the results by my knowledge of placard locations, I followed the satnav route each way (it brought me back by a different route, which was useful for this).
Lib Dem diamonds: 17
Labour placards: 1
Tory placards: 0
Green: 0
Reform: 0
I happen to know the locations of 100+ more diamonds (out of the 300+ I know are in the constituency) and the locations of 4 more Labour placards and 2 Green placards (I’ve done a LOT of driving around during the campaign). No Tory or Reform have been seen by me or anyone else I know.
Leaflets received from other parties (I’ll spare you Lib Dem leaflet details as they’ve been discussed to death above), with the county council by-election leaflets (held on 20 June) separated out:
Conservative: 2 GE hand-delivered, 2 GE posted, 1 GE freepost, plus 1 by-election hand-delivered
Labour: 1 GE hand-delivered and 1 by-election (simultaneously dropped, ironically) and 1 GE freepost
Green: 2 by-election hand-delivered, 1 GE freepost
SDP: 1 GE hand-delivered
Reform: 1 GE freepost
Think about that China number for a moment. In two months, China will have added about the same solar capacity as total UK electricity demand.
Lovely fucked up Guingamp is full of angry political posters and graffiti. Most of it I can work out - eg “vous avez Zemmour, nous on l’anour”
I love the poster which has turned Nutella into Bardella - a brown paste made of shit. All of these are defaced by Le Pen supporters
But I’m completely confounded by the Breton language sign on a bridge with “Fuck BZH” scrawled all over it. BZH is short for Breizh - which is Breton for the Breton language or Brittany
So someone is saying, in English, fuck Brittany (or fuck the Breton language). This is in Brittany
Can any pb brainiac get their heads around that? Is it angry Welsh tourists disappointed that the Bretons have done so little to preserve a language similar to Welsh? That seems unlikely
The one thing that struck me was how polite everyone was, most everyone greeting you with a bon jour or soir on the riverside path, even the slightly lairy dope smoking teenagers on skateboards.
Innocent times.
About £10k has been wagered, which is a lot for a single constituency market.
Edit: I believe ScottP is a constituent so if he's seen around wearing a rolex and new Armani suit we know for sure something is up.
NEW THREAD
“The English take their pleasures sadly” was i believe a French barb. I sometimes wonder if it could be thrown back
I guess it’s like fans going to watch their team play Chelsea writing “fuck London”. The French really like using the English “fuck” as a swear word.
Also where I saw my first RefUK poster, which probably helps the yellow peril
I am not sure if Zahawi running away helps of hinders the Tory vote
A meaningless penalty, but a penalty nonetheless.
The problem of the rest of the city centre is that it was largely wooden. It couldn't be easily rebuilt, and it wasn't. They replaced the crammed city with mostly space. It's not the quality of the buildings in Coventry that's the problem, it's the lack of density and the way, for example, the university buildings occupy so much space beyond the building perimeter. Wooden Coventry was destroyed in the blitz. Now the city needs to find a way of filling in the gaps and restoring the old street lines.
The real "reaction" was from the pompous snobbish brutalists who decided it was an idea canvass to create their own monstrosity in "reaction" to the opportunity.
You capture the attitude of British elites perfectly.
I suspect Lando is slightly less of a fan after today, too.