There are a few Guy Opperman banners along the A1 in South Northumberland. No Tory branding visible other than the colours.
Hexham will be a really interesting result.
If it stays Tory, the Tories will be doing pretty well, and could even keep a seat in Cumbria. Though I think it will all go Labour except for Tim Farron.
Pretty well if they hold Hexham is quite a summary of just how far they've fallen. That said. It's been trending Left for some decades now.
The link is interesting. The seat by seat predictions seem to contain some mistakes (Christchurch is the speaker's seat; Grantham was Labour in 2019; Hexham will stay Tory - it won't) but is useful.
Its mode of presentation emphasises to the reader that most of the seats predicted to stay Tory do so only by tiny % points. MOE is real.
Seat by seats look questionable in many instances. Islington North is very obviously wrong as there is no account taken of Corbyn standing. I do not see the point of MRPs.
The link is interesting. The seat by seat predictions seem to contain some mistakes (Christchurch is the speaker's seat; Grantham was Labour in 2019; Hexham will stay Tory - it won't) but is useful.
Its mode of presentation emphasises to the reader that most of the seats predicted to stay Tory do so only by tiny % points. MOE is real.
Seat by seats look questionable in many instances. Islington North is very obviously wrong as there is no account taken of Corbyn standing. I do not see the point of MRPs.
Some MRPs do take account of candidates like Corbyn.
Jess Phillips has been particularly emotional on twitter this week. Not sure if that's just Jess being Jess or if she's feeling the pressure in Yardley. I'm much much less convinced she's in any trouble than I was a few weeks ago but Birmingham is going to be odd, the Street results showed that, and the Pakistani/Bangladeshi polling (prior to Bengaligate) with a large representation in the city makes me wonder. I'm prepared to look far more stupid on that one than Yakoob who I think is at worst 50/50 to win
A few constiutency polls with Galloways lot as a named party rather than other would be useful
I can tell you that as well as Rochdale, with bet365 they are second favourites (at 10s to 20s range) in
Birmingham Yardley Ealing North Blackburn Luton South
I don't expect Galloway to hold on in Rochdale, remember that he won only 39% in a by-election even after Labour had disowned their own candidate. He attracts votes but also has the ability to unite people against him in repulsion. Labour will attract the latter votes.
Yakoob I think should be favourite to win, if he does so he'll take over the mantle from Galloway as the vilest MP in the Commons. That said Shabana Mahmood is a decent person and her personal vote may still get her over the line. Yakoob is focusing his personal narcissicm on Ladywood and the campaigns of others of his ilk seem lower key by comparison with the wider Yakoob campaign in the mayoral election, so I can't see his lot picking up any seats elsewhere in the West Midlands.
On the ground, even my Tory/Lib Dem swithering parents are voting Labour to try and oust Galloway. Similar amongst their friends (affluent home owning retirees).
On another note, Hexham is an interesting one - never been anything other than Tory, if it goes they're in for an epic trouncing.
Wrong. It flirted with Trotskyism in 1923 when it had a Liberal MP for one year.
On topic, I would say that Labour might be in trouble where facing a credible Green challenge. I'm expecting Thamgam Thingamebob to save the next Speaker the trouble of learning how to pronounce her name.
I'd be less concerned about the Gaza thing. It's a UK GE ffs.
I've actually bought Greens on the spreads. They were cheap, if nothing else.
I would sell Reform, but I'm a scaredy cat.
I've traded out of Reform seats, for £5 profit as I bought at 6.5 and sold at 7, and have flipped to the Greens instead.
Similar considerations here, Ben. I'm really glad I don't live just down the road and have to decide whether to oppose the excellent Alex Chalk in Cheltenham. No such problems with Lazy Laurence Robertson here in Tewkesbury, where the Yellow Diamonds continue to proliferate.
We took a trip out to Pershore last night and were surprised to see the same patterns there. I can just about buy Gloucestershire as a new Liberal fiefdom, but Worcestershire ffs? Not a Blue, Red, or Green flag in sight. I checked when I got home and the various sources confirmed my assumption that West Worcestershire is about as Tory as it gets. If you want to back The Peril you can get 33/1, no problem. Yet they definitely seem to be Trying There.
A misallocation of resources or something in the wind?
Not sure, but the local LDs are quite bullish about Tewkesbury, so I'm satisfied now that I didn't lead you guys astray when I put this up as a bet a couple of weeks ago.
Didn’t you also mention a profitable arbitrage on this ?
On topic, I would say that Labour might be in trouble where facing a credible Green challenge. I'm expecting Thamgam Thingamebob to save the next Speaker the trouble of learning how to pronounce her name.
I'd be less concerned about the Gaza thing. It's a UK GE ffs.
I've actually bought Greens on the spreads. They were cheap, if nothing else.
I would sell Reform, but I'm a scaredy cat.
I've traded out of Reform seats, for £5 profit as I bought at 6.5 and sold at 7, and have flipped to the Greens instead.
Looking back at that 19 thread, it’s interesting that the exit poll was broadly correct in total, but well-off in specific seats. For example, it predicted a complete wipe out of Lib Dems on Scotland.
Guess we’ll have to stay up all night, because the beauty of this election will be in the details.
The fact that Hamas apologists don't want to vote Labour is a feature, not a bug.
The key voters in this election are the several million strong corps of usually Tory voters who will give Labour 1 vote by voting Reform or staying at home, or 2 votes by voting Labour.
If Labour gave houseroom for 10 seconds to the pro Hamas brigade, those several million votes would coalesce around voting Tory to keep them out. There are literally 200 seats at stake over this wholly negative issue, over which the UK government has no power.
We don't have any power over the Ukraine issue either. But dosen't stop them deluding themselves that it is still 1911.
British Manpads were critical in stopping your tanks at the beginning of the full scale invasion and the UK has supplied training and materiel like Storm Shadow that has all but destroyed your Black Sea fleet.
MANPADs aren't used on armour, they are anti-aircraft weapons.
The BSF have 5 x Guided Missile Frigates, 4 x Kilos and many assorted pleasure craft in the Black Sea. "All but destroyed" is a load of shit you have just made up.
While you’re right on the detail, you’re not so right on the judgment. The Black Sea fleet is effectively in hiding, outfought by a navy which consists largely of drone boats. And British anti-armour missiles were certainly of considerable use in blunting the Putin Blitzkreig. Though a bigger role was played by the ex Soviet artillery fielded by Ukraine.
If he stands down, who's the most likely new candidate?
Betfair latest odds for the DEM nomination
Biden 1.71-1.73 Newsom 6.4-7.0 M Obama 10.5-11 Harris 12-13.6 Whitmer 17.5-28 H Clinton 38-46
Biden is a buy
You probably shouldn't listen to me as on this as you'd already be in the red if you'd followed my advice but right now insiders may have a lot of information that we don't, at least about the Biden part, so maybe stay out of it apart from laying the silly ones.
Con Gain Bootle is 100/1 whereas in reality it's probably 500/1
Green Gain IoW is *200/1* whereas in reality it's probably 10/1.
IoW could easily go four-way marginal. It's the Greens who are in third there, not the LDs who are nowhere, and Reform could split the Tory vote without Labour gaining much at all.
Jess Phillips has been particularly emotional on twitter this week. Not sure if that's just Jess being Jess or if she's feeling the pressure in Yardley. I'm much much less convinced she's in any trouble than I was a few weeks ago but Birmingham is going to be odd, the Street results showed that, and the Pakistani/Bangladeshi polling (prior to Bengaligate) with a large representation in the city makes me wonder. I'm prepared to look far more stupid on that one than Yakoob who I think is at worst 50/50 to win
A few constiutency polls with Galloways lot as a named party rather than other would be useful
I can tell you that as well as Rochdale, with bet365 they are second favourites (at 10s to 20s range) in
Birmingham Yardley Ealing North Blackburn Luton South
I don't expect Galloway to hold on in Rochdale, remember that he won only 39% in a by-election even after Labour had disowned their own candidate. He attracts votes but also has the ability to unite people against him in repulsion. Labour will attract the latter votes.
Yakoob I think should be favourite to win, if he does so he'll take over the mantle from Galloway as the vilest MP in the Commons. That said Shabana Mahmood is a decent person and her personal vote may still get her over the line. Yakoob is focusing his personal narcissicm on Ladywood and the campaigns of others of his ilk seem lower key by comparison with the wider Yakoob campaign in the mayoral election, so I can't see his lot picking up any seats elsewhere in the West Midlands.
On the ground, even my Tory/Lib Dem swithering parents are voting Labour to try and oust Galloway. Similar amongst their friends (affluent home owning retirees).
On another note, Hexham is an interesting one - never been anything other than Tory, if it goes they're in for an epic trouncing.
Saw a Galloway banner in Halifax. His smug visage is given equal prominence with the local candidate.
Where did this idea of the Greens winning Brighton Kemptown come from? The result last time (notional) was Lab 51.2%, Con 34.4%, LD 6.0%, Grn 5.7%, Brexit 2.7%. There's no Reform candidate.
I reckon Remainers are holding their noses and turning to Corbyn (see Truro) Question is, how many Remainery CON/LAB marginals are there? Does anyone know, off the bat? Boris will surely make gains in the Red Wall, but a new Red Resistance further south could deny him.
Don't want to freak everybody out but I am getting anecdotal reports of a late Labour recovery. eg Truro now in serious doubt: Labour pressing hard Bloody hell.
This afternoon I am going to shift the bulk of my capital into foreign stocks, bonds and shares. Are you offshoring or ringfencing your assets? Seriously. What are you doing to hedge against a HP and Corbyn in power?
With great reluctance, I am forced to agree. It's a huge mood shift. I am not sure why. But it has happened. Labour are within touching distance of being biggest party Their problem is that it has come so so late, that is quite unlikely. But a hung parliament is super do-able.
I am now reconciled to a Hung Parliament, and Jeremy Jew-Hater Corbyn PM. I am arranging my affairs accordingly.
The fact that Hamas apologists don't want to vote Labour is a feature, not a bug.
The key voters in this election are the several million strong corps of usually Tory voters who will give Labour 1 vote by voting Reform or staying at home, or 2 votes by voting Labour.
If Labour gave houseroom for 10 seconds to the pro Hamas brigade, those several million votes would coalesce around voting Tory to keep them out. There are literally 200 seats at stake over this wholly negative issue, over which the UK government has no power.
We don't have any power over the Ukraine issue either. But dosen't stop them deluding themselves that it is still 1911.
British Manpads were critical in stopping your tanks at the beginning of the full scale invasion and the UK has supplied training and materiel like Storm Shadow that has all but destroyed your Black Sea fleet.
MANPADs aren't used on armour, they are anti-aircraft weapons.
The BSF have 5 x Guided Missile Frigates, 4 x Kilos and many assorted pleasure craft in the Black Sea. "All but destroyed" is a load of shit you have just made up.
Wrong on both statements - obviously touched a nerve.
You're just another Ultra chatting shit and unable to distinguish hopes and dreams from reality.
In the Black Sea right now...
Krivak Class: Ladniy, Pitilviy
Grigorovich Class: Essen, Markarov
The Mercury is in the Med.
Kilo class: Alrosa, Krasnodar, Oskol, Novgorod, Kolpino
BSF major combatants confirmed destroyed: Moskva, Rostov-na-Donu
Probably not - where does the other seat after Bristol / Brighton come from.
One Bristol, two Brighton, maybe an IoW seat, and one or two Gaza seats elsewhere.
They could maybe get five. In theory.
3-4 Green seats, and a sense of growth, will have interesting implications for politics once the Starmer Government loses popularity. Especially with a decent size, high profile, LibDem party. He will quickly need to watch his left flank.
Together with the Tories/Reform, our politics really could fracture.
The link is interesting. The seat by seat predictions seem to contain some mistakes (Christchurch is the speaker's seat; Grantham was Labour in 2019; Hexham will stay Tory - it won't) but is useful.
Its mode of presentation emphasises to the reader that most of the seats predicted to stay Tory do so only by tiny % points. MOE is real.
Seat by seats look questionable in many instances. Islington North is very obviously wrong as there is no account taken of Corbyn standing. I do not see the point of MRPs.
The point of them is to make a more sophisticated estimate of "vote share to seats" than can UNS. Which, by and large, I think they can do, especially this time. The flaw is that everyone dives into the data beneath, which is just a model.
Where did this idea of the Greens winning Brighton Kemptown come from? The result last time (notional) was Lab 51.2%, Con 34.4%, LD 6.0%, Grn 5.7%, Brexit 2.7%. There's no Reform candidate.
The axing of Lloyd Moyle was not popular with the local Labour lot
Who will be the most geographically isolated (non scots) Tory MP? I reckon McVey in Tatton unless they pull off a miracle in Pembrokeshire
Highly unlikely, even with St David's Cathedral in the constituency. No miracles here. The Crabb will have to scurry away sideways.
Agreed. Very unlikely but one of 4 they have (barely) more than 1% chance of in Wales
My hopes are that brecon and Radnor is lost to the libdems this time. I'm afraid Montgomery is likely to go labour I think.
Brecon will be interesting, montgomery is gone red after betgate, Monmouth might yet be interesting
I'd be surprised if Davies retains Monmouth. Labour are up S*** Street if he does.
Yeah it's no better than a 10% chance but it's feasible on a best case night, it would require Gething/Welsh govt being more of a negative effect than modelled I think, though
Probably not - where does the other seat after Bristol / Brighton come from.
One Bristol, two Brighton, maybe an IoW seat, and one or two Gaza seats elsewhere.
They could maybe get five. In theory.
One in Hereford was mentioned recently and one in Suffolk are two others in play.
Difficult to believe but a lot of the stuff around is difficult to believe. The MRP polls have caused havoc. They have Labour winning seats where they are not in play and the LDs are the challengers, and have LDs winning seats where they are not targeting.
Anyway I am hoping that it really is all up in the air. It will make the night exciting.
Probably not - where does the other seat after Bristol / Brighton come from.
One Bristol, two Brighton, maybe an IoW seat, and one or two Gaza seats elsewhere.
They could maybe get five. In theory.
One in Hereford was mentioned recently and one in Suffolk are two others in play.
Difficult to believe but a lot of the stuff around is difficult to believe. The MRP polls have caused havoc. They have Labour winning seats where they are not in play and the LDs are the challengers, and have LDs winning seats where they are not targeting.
Anyway I am hoping that it really is all up in the air. It will make the night exciting.
Sounds like a lot of good opportunities to take advantage of local knowledge, with bookies pricing markets based more on MRP polling rather than what the parties are actually doing on the ground.
Where did this idea of the Greens winning Brighton Kemptown come from? The result last time (notional) was Lab 51.2%, Con 34.4%, LD 6.0%, Grn 5.7%, Brexit 2.7%. There's no Reform candidate.
Corbynite SJW candidate - Lloyd Russell-Moyle - ousted in controversial circumstances. Actually not the central party's doing - reports indicate the complaint that has stopped him from running came from another person on the left who had been shown the door. Notably, unlike, say, Faiza Shaheen, he didn't blame the leadership for his ousting.
But still. If there's a tranche of voters upset he's no longer the candidate, because, well, Brighton, innit, and that it's a leadership loyalist instead (Chris Ward is a former Starmer aide) then there's a chance it's closer than you'd think.
The fact that Hamas apologists don't want to vote Labour is a feature, not a bug.
The key voters in this election are the several million strong corps of usually Tory voters who will give Labour 1 vote by voting Reform or staying at home, or 2 votes by voting Labour.
If Labour gave houseroom for 10 seconds to the pro Hamas brigade, those several million votes would coalesce around voting Tory to keep them out. There are literally 200 seats at stake over this wholly negative issue, over which the UK government has no power.
We don't have any power over the Ukraine issue either. But dosen't stop them deluding themselves that it is still 1911.
British Manpads were critical in stopping your tanks at the beginning of the full scale invasion and the UK has supplied training and materiel like Storm Shadow that has all but destroyed your Black Sea fleet.
MANPADs aren't used on armour, they are anti-aircraft weapons.
The BSF have 5 x Guided Missile Frigates, 4 x Kilos and many assorted pleasure craft in the Black Sea. "All but destroyed" is a load of shit you have just made up.
Wrong on both statements - obviously touched a nerve.
You're just another Ultra chatting shit and unable to distinguish hopes and dreams from reality.
In the Black Sea right now...
Krivak Class: Ladniy, Pitilviy
Grigorovich Class: Essen, Markarov
The Mercury is in the Med.
Kilo class: Alrosa, Krasnodar, Oskol, Novgorod, Kolpino
BSF major combatants confirmed destroyed: Moskva, Rostov-na-Donu
That is not a fleet that is 'all but destroyed'.
The Krivak Class is a small anti-submarine frigate with limited utility for current ops.
The Grigorovich Class does have a nasty land attack capability, but has been denied access to where it wants to be.
I wouldn’t fancy operating the Kilo class in the litoral.
In context, some decent assets but they are ok the back foot.
Where did this idea of the Greens winning Brighton Kemptown come from? The result last time (notional) was Lab 51.2%, Con 34.4%, LD 6.0%, Grn 5.7%, Brexit 2.7%. There's no Reform candidate.
The axing of Lloyd Moyle was not popular with the local Labour lot
And its an election that Labour is going to win. by miles, its safe to vote Green...
Where did this idea of the Greens winning Brighton Kemptown come from? The result last time (notional) was Lab 51.2%, Con 34.4%, LD 6.0%, Grn 5.7%, Brexit 2.7%. There's no Reform candidate.
The axing of Lloyd Moyle was not popular with the local Labour lot
But 'the local Labour lot' will be what, a few hundred at most? Most Labour voters will not be bothered imo.
Where did this idea of the Greens winning Brighton Kemptown come from? The result last time (notional) was Lab 51.2%, Con 34.4%, LD 6.0%, Grn 5.7%, Brexit 2.7%. There's no Reform candidate.
The axing of Lloyd Moyle was not popular with the local Labour lot
But 'the local Labour lot' will be what, a few hundred at most? Most Labour voters will not be bothered imo.
The fact that Hamas apologists don't want to vote Labour is a feature, not a bug.
The key voters in this election are the several million strong corps of usually Tory voters who will give Labour 1 vote by voting Reform or staying at home, or 2 votes by voting Labour.
If Labour gave houseroom for 10 seconds to the pro Hamas brigade, those several million votes would coalesce around voting Tory to keep them out. There are literally 200 seats at stake over this wholly negative issue, over which the UK government has no power.
We don't have any power over the Ukraine issue either. But dosen't stop them deluding themselves that it is still 1911.
British Manpads were critical in stopping your tanks at the beginning of the full scale invasion and the UK has supplied training and materiel like Storm Shadow that has all but destroyed your Black Sea fleet.
MANPADs aren't used on armour, they are anti-aircraft weapons.
The BSF have 5 x Guided Missile Frigates, 4 x Kilos and many assorted pleasure craft in the Black Sea. "All but destroyed" is a load of shit you have just made up.
While you’re right on the detail, you’re not so right on the judgment. The Black Sea fleet is effectively in hiding, outfought by a navy which consists largely of drone boats. And British anti-armour missiles were certainly of considerable use in blunting the Putin Blitzkreig. Though a bigger role was played by the ex Soviet artillery fielded by Ukraine.
Total game-changers in this war, and will likely affect every other land-based war in future. UK, and other European armies, should order thousands of small drones from Ukraine when this war is over.
The result is inevitably going to be an disppointing anodyne bore. Girthy majority for SKS, tories down but not out and no terrorist outrage to spice things up.
Probably not - where does the other seat after Bristol / Brighton come from.
One Bristol, two Brighton, maybe an IoW seat, and one or two Gaza seats elsewhere.
They could maybe get five. In theory.
wasn't there another 1 in Norfolk that's tending that way.
But if both Brighton seats are tending Green, 2.5 is on the low side and has very little downside as TSE points out.
80 to 1 on Brighton Kempton - is probably the better bet though....
Waveney Valley (straddles the Norfolk/Suffolk border, more of it is in Suffolk) I think they'll fall short there but it's possible
Green's odds are 4/6 on Bet365 - not taking that. Tory is 13/8
Does mean that 2.5 seats looks like a buy, little downside could easily be 4/5 seats...
Trouble is, I've helped the Greens in one of their top target seats, and their ground campaign or even basic understanding of what they are supposed to be doing is pitifully shambolic, which doesn't inspire confidence in their wider prospects. At least with the LibDems we can be confident that in their top targets it's going to be well organised and professional on the ground, right through to close of poll.
The fact that Hamas apologists don't want to vote Labour is a feature, not a bug.
The key voters in this election are the several million strong corps of usually Tory voters who will give Labour 1 vote by voting Reform or staying at home, or 2 votes by voting Labour.
If Labour gave houseroom for 10 seconds to the pro Hamas brigade, those several million votes would coalesce around voting Tory to keep them out. There are literally 200 seats at stake over this wholly negative issue, over which the UK government has no power.
We don't have any power over the Ukraine issue either. But dosen't stop them deluding themselves that it is still 1911.
British Manpads were critical in stopping your tanks at the beginning of the full scale invasion and the UK has supplied training and materiel like Storm Shadow that has all but destroyed your Black Sea fleet.
MANPADs aren't used on armour, they are anti-aircraft weapons.
The BSF have 5 x Guided Missile Frigates, 4 x Kilos and many assorted pleasure craft in the Black Sea. "All but destroyed" is a load of shit you have just made up.
Wrong on both statements - obviously touched a nerve.
You're just another Ultra chatting shit and unable to distinguish hopes and dreams from reality.
In the Black Sea right now...
Krivak Class: Ladniy, Pitilviy
Grigorovich Class: Essen, Markarov
The Mercury is in the Med.
Kilo class: Alrosa, Krasnodar, Oskol, Novgorod, Kolpino
BSF major combatants confirmed destroyed: Moskva, Rostov-na-Donu
That is not a fleet that is 'all but destroyed'.
Putin having to dig out Soviet era weaponry is a fave of the PB enthusiasts, I guess you could use an air defence missile against this.
Greens are 80/1 to win Brighton Kempton and Peacehaven. Based on the tweet linked to in the header I have had £12.50 on the Greens - to win £1k.
To lose £12.50 more likely. Fine if that is your only bet but it is too easy to fall into the trap of backing lots of outsiders, winning one, then calling it a 33/1 winner when it was really just 2/1 after accounting for all the lost stakes.
Greens are 80/1 to win Brighton Kempton and Peacehaven. Based on the tweet linked to in the header I have had £12.50 on the Greens - to win £1k.
To lose £12.50 more likely. Fine if that is your only bet but it is too easy to fall into the trap of backing lots of outsiders, winning one, then calling it a 33/1 winner when it was really just 2/1 after accounting for all the lost stakes.
Anyone who finishes 2/1 up, has had a very good night.
There is iirc normally a monthly date archive table down the RHS on the politicalbetting.com (not vanilla) site, but that and the blogroll seem to have vanished afaics - perhaps @rcs1000 is running a shortened page to help performance during the Election period?
For future reference, Wordpress does all sorts of things that can be found by guessing urls but it is all configurable so unpredictable. If you are not a Geek I would recommend using the date based archive of the Internet Archive, which is well organised and has PB going back to 2004 including comments, and some decent search facilities if you look for them:
The fact that Hamas apologists don't want to vote Labour is a feature, not a bug.
The key voters in this election are the several million strong corps of usually Tory voters who will give Labour 1 vote by voting Reform or staying at home, or 2 votes by voting Labour.
If Labour gave houseroom for 10 seconds to the pro Hamas brigade, those several million votes would coalesce around voting Tory to keep them out. There are literally 200 seats at stake over this wholly negative issue, over which the UK government has no power.
We don't have any power over the Ukraine issue either. But dosen't stop them deluding themselves that it is still 1911.
British Manpads were critical in stopping your tanks at the beginning of the full scale invasion and the UK has supplied training and materiel like Storm Shadow that has all but destroyed your Black Sea fleet.
MANPADs aren't used on armour, they are anti-aircraft weapons.
The BSF have 5 x Guided Missile Frigates, 4 x Kilos and many assorted pleasure craft in the Black Sea. "All but destroyed" is a load of shit you have just made up.
Wrong on both statements - obviously touched a nerve.
You're just another Ultra chatting shit and unable to distinguish hopes and dreams from reality.
In the Black Sea right now...
Krivak Class: Ladniy, Pitilviy
Grigorovich Class: Essen, Markarov
The Mercury is in the Med.
Kilo class: Alrosa, Krasnodar, Oskol, Novgorod, Kolpino
BSF major combatants confirmed destroyed: Moskva, Rostov-na-Donu
That is not a fleet that is 'all but destroyed'.
Putin having to dig out Soviet era weaponry is a fave of the PB enthusiasts, I guess you could use an air defence missile against this.
Con Gain Bootle is 100/1 whereas in reality it's probably 500/1
Green Gain IoW is *200/1* whereas in reality it's probably 10/1.
IoW could easily go four-way marginal. It's the Greens who are in third there, not the LDs who are nowhere, and Reform could split the Tory vote without Labour gaining much at all.
There's also Waveney Valley and North Herefordshire as plausible Green wins.
They included a chart in their fundraising email purporting to show Biden's the strongest candidate against Trump. It shows no such thing. All the possible Dem candidates--though obviously less well known than Biden--already do just as well as Biden.
John Redwood offers some clarity on the 'one nation' takeover of the Government (I use inverted commas because Disraeli would have been repulsed by these chumps), and how this election will be the public's verdict on 'one nationism'.
There were discussions with Ministers who decided it was best to run a largely One Nation policy. Ministers argued that the threat to the Conservative party came from Labour and Lib Dems to the left so it was important to move in their direction. They wanted to improve relations with the EU, follow international law as interpreted by internationalists, follow Bank and OBR orthodoxy and regulate more against possible harms. Critics of these views accepted they had lost the internal argument and supported the leadership going into an election.
You are fantastically far from where the Conservative Party needs to be and, indeed, where the nation now is.
In one way it doesn’t bother me if you (pl) headbangers want to fritter away another 10 years in the political wilderness.
On the other hand we’ll need decent Opposition so I hope moderate Conservatives tell you lot, politely, to bog off into your hate-filled right wing lunacy.
One of the consistencies of recent polling is that the Tory vote is more or less exactly half the Labour vote. There are of course individual exceptions.
Rather obviously I think this means that Labour cannot possibly lose outright, whatever happens. Does it also mean that for now there is a link between the votes for the two parties - basically because the ups and downs of Reform polling is reflected in Tory and Labour equally, and that this will be the case in the actual vote. Ie, if Labour are 42 Tories will be 21. If 38, they will be 19 etc.
IANAE but if this is so, then the chances of a Tory catastrophe, rather than mere disaster, are greater. All the predictions of Tories doing better then expected are based on relatively Tory rise and Labour fall.
NEW YORK (AP) — A sense of concern is growing inside the top ranks of the Democratic Party that leaders of Joe Biden’s campaign and the Democratic National Committee are not taking seriously enough the impact of the president’s troubling debate performance earlier in the week.
DNC Chairman Jaime Harrison and Biden campaign manager Julie Chavez Rodriguez held a Saturday afternoon call with dozens of committee members across the country, a group of some of the most influential members of the party. They largely ignored Biden’s weak showing Thursday night or the avalanche of criticism that followed.
Multiple committee members on the call, most granted anonymity to talk about the private discussion, described feeling like they were being gaslighted
On topic, I agree with the header and think there will be some ‘unusual’ results in the midst of the general trend. Not sufficient to affect the overall result. Some real betting opportunities here if you know your onions.
One of the consistencies of recent polling is that the Tory vote is more or less exactly half the Labour vote. There are of course individual exceptions.
Rather obviously I think this means that Labour cannot possibly lose outright, whatever happens.
Mathematically you could win two thirds of the seats with a vote share just a handful of votes above half that of an opposing party, but obviously it's never going to fall like that.
Con Gain Bootle is 100/1 whereas in reality it's probably 500/1
Green Gain IoW is *200/1* whereas in reality it's probably 10/1.
IoW could easily go four-way marginal. It's the Greens who are in third there, not the LDs who are nowhere, and Reform could split the Tory vote without Labour gaining much at all.
There's also Waveney Valley and North Herefordshire as plausible Green wins.
If Keir Starmer wins as big as many predict then he is going to turnover FAR more seats than Thatcher 1979 (+62) or Blair in 1997 (+146). A few stray left and greens will be a price well-worth paying for parking his tank on the tory lawn.
Con Gain Bootle is 100/1 whereas in reality it's probably 500/1
Green Gain IoW is *200/1* whereas in reality it's probably 10/1.
IoW could easily go four-way marginal. It's the Greens who are in third there, not the LDs who are nowhere, and Reform could split the Tory vote without Labour gaining much at all.
There's also Waveney Valley and North Herefordshire as plausible Green wins.
Which IoW are we talking about here?
E, where the Green is the primary campaign "people's champion". They won't win W - the Greens are actively campaigning for voters in the West to 'vote swap' and go Labour, with social media posts by supporters advocating "Red West, Green East, for a Tory MP free island"
Greens are 80/1 to win Brighton Kempton and Peacehaven. Based on the tweet linked to in the header I have had £12.50 on the Greens - to win £1k.
To lose £12.50 more likely. Fine if that is your only bet but it is too easy to fall into the trap of backing lots of outsiders, winning one, then calling it a 33/1 winner when it was really just 2/1 after accounting for all the lost stakes.
Depends how much store you place in those two constituency polls we had a while back. I suspect they will lose Brighton Pavilion and doubt Kemptown is genuinely in play. Four is the upper limit of ambition I think, (BP, Brizzle, N Herts and Waveney), and zero with four or five close seconds is quite possible.
The (Dem) Governor of Michigan, Gretchen Whitmer, is a name that keeps coming up as a possible replacement for Biden. She’s a sensible age (53), has been governor for six years, is from a swing state, and is currently saying nothing because she’s on Biden’s re-election team (unlike, say, Gavin Newsom).
She stands a reasonable chance of being Biden’s pick if he stands down, and might be worth a couple of quid at long odds.
John Redwood offers some clarity on the 'one nation' takeover of the Government (I use inverted commas because Disraeli would have been repulsed by these chumps), and how this election will be the public's verdict on 'one nationism'.
There were discussions with Ministers who decided it was best to run a largely One Nation policy. Ministers argued that the threat to the Conservative party came from Labour and Lib Dems to the left so it was important to move in their direction. They wanted to improve relations with the EU, follow international law as interpreted by internationalists, follow Bank and OBR orthodoxy and regulate more against possible harms. Critics of these views accepted they had lost the internal argument and supported the leadership going into an election.
You are fantastically far from where the Conservative Party needs to be and, indeed, where the nation now is.
In one way it doesn’t bother me if you (pl) headbangers want to fritter away another 10 years in the political wilderness.
On the other hand we’ll need decent Opposition so I hope moderate Conservatives tell you lot, politely, to bog off into your hate-filled right wing lunacy.
Further on Lucky Guy's link to Redwood. This is a lovely and double example of Redwood's use of the motto of St Trinian's : "Get your blow in first". It gives us an interesting outline of the future.
Redwood firstly gets his blow in by pointing out that I won't say I told you so but I did - standard fare.
But he adds that the Tories lost because they governed and stood as the old One Nation Tory party, proving that the phoenix arising from the ashes must be no such thing.
He offers less to the several million centrists who are declining to vote Tory for reasons obscure to him. It isn't because the Tories are too left wing actually.
Con Gain Bootle is 100/1 whereas in reality it's probably 500/1
Green Gain IoW is *200/1* whereas in reality it's probably 10/1.
IoW could easily go four-way marginal. It's the Greens who are in third there, not the LDs who are nowhere, and Reform could split the Tory vote without Labour gaining much at all.
There's also Waveney Valley and North Herefordshire as plausible Green wins.
Which IoW are we talking about here?
Both seats are likely to be 4 way battles with the winner struggling to get 30%. So could be either.
In the modest amount of Scotland polling that we've had there has been a weakening of Labour's position and a strengthening of the SNP, so I'm not surprised that Labour thinks things will be close in the central belt.
I do think there is still potential for the election to go horribly wrong for Labour.
Naff off, TSE. I went to Warwick University. It was great then. It had Germaine Greer and E. P. Thompson on the staff. I don't know what has happened to it subsequently for it to have produced Andrea Leadsom, Tim Loughton and Boris's latest wife Carrie.
I reckon Remainers are holding their noses and turning to Corbyn (see Truro) Question is, how many Remainery CON/LAB marginals are there? Does anyone know, off the bat? Boris will surely make gains in the Red Wall, but a new Red Resistance further south could deny him.
Don't want to freak everybody out but I am getting anecdotal reports of a late Labour recovery. eg Truro now in serious doubt: Labour pressing hard Bloody hell.
This afternoon I am going to shift the bulk of my capital into foreign stocks, bonds and shares. Are you offshoring or ringfencing your assets? Seriously. What are you doing to hedge against a HP and Corbyn in power?
With great reluctance, I am forced to agree. It's a huge mood shift. I am not sure why. But it has happened. Labour are within touching distance of being biggest party Their problem is that it has come so so late, that is quite unlikely. But a hung parliament is super do-able.
I am now reconciled to a Hung Parliament, and Jeremy Jew-Hater Corbyn PM. I am arranging my affairs accordingly.
Given the way that the £ and UK markets shot up at the decisive election result and Corbyn's defeat, moving all his money into foreign stuff must have been a seriously expensive mistake by that former poster; no wonder he slunk away afterwards! Assuming it wasn't all p**s and wind in the first place.
The fact that Hamas apologists don't want to vote Labour is a feature, not a bug.
The key voters in this election are the several million strong corps of usually Tory voters who will give Labour 1 vote by voting Reform or staying at home, or 2 votes by voting Labour.
If Labour gave houseroom for 10 seconds to the pro Hamas brigade, those several million votes would coalesce around voting Tory to keep them out. There are literally 200 seats at stake over this wholly negative issue, over which the UK government has no power.
We don't have any power over the Ukraine issue either. But dosen't stop them deluding themselves that it is still 1911.
British Manpads were critical in stopping your tanks at the beginning of the full scale invasion and the UK has supplied training and materiel like Storm Shadow that has all but destroyed your Black Sea fleet.
MANPADs aren't used on armour, they are anti-aircraft weapons.
The BSF have 5 x Guided Missile Frigates, 4 x Kilos and many assorted pleasure craft in the Black Sea. "All but destroyed" is a load of shit you have just made up.
The Black Sea Fleet has started launching missiles from the Azov Sea, because they're a bit too scared of Ukraine's naval drones to spend much time in the Black Sea itself.
One of the consistencies of recent polling is that the Tory vote is more or less exactly half the Labour vote. There are of course individual exceptions.
Rather obviously I think this means that Labour cannot possibly lose outright, whatever happens.
Mathematically you could win two thirds of the seats with a vote share just a handful of votes above half that of an opposing party, but obviously it's never going to fall like that.
I’d have to think this through to be sure I was right, but I suspect the very nature of this point is what drives the two “poles” of our FPTP system. Tory vs. Whig/Lib/Lab is driven by “where” the two blocks are that can still have a decent number of seats when the other lot are dominant, because of their one vote distribution.
The whole question about Reform vs. Tory is whether it is like Lab to the Libs in the early 19th century, where they took over that ground in enough places to win, or whether Reform support is spread too thinly to matter.
I keep saying this, but I am struck by the idea that for any given party there’s a tipping point where they start winning big. The seat modellers can manage that to some extent for the liberals because there’s precedents; but Reform/Green are outliers.
Linked to that, the Greens have been scoring well for ages in some polls and we’ve all said “it’ll go back to Labour”. But what if it doesn’t and what if it’s concentrated? Likewise, what if Reform is just a bit better concentrated than UKIP.
Like we are all saying, nothing affects a Starmer win at the macro level, but the shape of the Parliament through to the next election is really interesting, given him starting from a (in context) low base in votes.
Con Gain Bootle is 100/1 whereas in reality it's probably 500/1
Green Gain IoW is *200/1* whereas in reality it's probably 10/1.
IoW could easily go four-way marginal. It's the Greens who are in third there, not the LDs who are nowhere, and Reform could split the Tory vote without Labour gaining much at all.
There's also Waveney Valley and North Herefordshire as plausible Green wins.
Which IoW are we talking about here?
E, where the Green is the primary campaign "people's champion". They won't win W - the Greens are actively campaigning for voters in the West to 'vote swap' and go Labour, with social media posts by supporters advocating "Red West, Green East, for a Tory MP free island"
E is 16/1, W is 200/1
So E is considered more likely by the bookies. Could be a 4 way split there.
Further on Lucky Guy's link to Redwood. This is a lovely and double example of Redwood's use of the motto of St Trinian's : "Get your blow in first". It gives us an interesting outline of the future.
Redwood firstly gets his blow in by pointing out that I won't say I told you so but I did - standard fare.
But he adds that the Tories lost because they governed and stood as the old One Nation Tory party, proving that the phoenix arising from the ashes must be no such thing.
He offers less to the several million centrists who are declining to vote Tory for reasons obscure to him. It isn't because the Tories are too left wing actually.
Eh?
The One Nation Tories won an election.
The batshit Brexit Tories he supports are about to face an ELE
I reckon Remainers are holding their noses and turning to Corbyn (see Truro) Question is, how many Remainery CON/LAB marginals are there? Does anyone know, off the bat? Boris will surely make gains in the Red Wall, but a new Red Resistance further south could deny him.
Don't want to freak everybody out but I am getting anecdotal reports of a late Labour recovery. eg Truro now in serious doubt: Labour pressing hard Bloody hell.
This afternoon I am going to shift the bulk of my capital into foreign stocks, bonds and shares. Are you offshoring or ringfencing your assets? Seriously. What are you doing to hedge against a HP and Corbyn in power?
With great reluctance, I am forced to agree. It's a huge mood shift. I am not sure why. But it has happened. Labour are within touching distance of being biggest party Their problem is that it has come so so late, that is quite unlikely. But a hung parliament is super do-able.
I am now reconciled to a Hung Parliament, and Jeremy Jew-Hater Corbyn PM. I am arranging my affairs accordingly.
Given the way that the £ and UK markets shot up at the decisive election result and Corbyn's defeat, moving all his money into foreign stuff must have been a seriously expensive mistake by that former poster; no wonder he slunk away afterwards! Assuming it wasn't all p**s and wind in the first place.
He was the male model wasn't he? The one so paranoid that he fled Covid in a spacesuit to Wales.
Trouble is, I've helped the Greens in one of their top target seats, and their ground campaign or even basic understanding of what they are supposed to be doing is pitifully shambolic, which doesn't inspire confidence in their wider prospects. At least with the LibDems we can be confident that in their top targets it's going to be well organised and professional on the ground, right through to close of poll.
I'm involved in the Labour effort in Didcot and Wantage, which is supposedly a LibDem target, and unofficially a Labour target too. The LibDem effort is overwhelmingly in delivering leaflets - up to 4 different ones on the same day to the same household. They are certainly much larger in number than the Labour leaflets, and the Tories are barely trying in leaflets although it's a solid Tory seat. Labour and LibDems are roughly competitive in number of posters, with zero Tories and a couple of Reform.
The LibDems could win, but I'm not impressed by the professionalism. If you get 1 leaflet you might read it. If you get 4 from the same source on the same day, the impression is that someone is trying to fulfil a quota, and you certainly don't read them unless you're very obsessive. More to the point, I'd argue that you're less likely to take the campaign seriously - but I could be wrong? The evident calculation is that floating anti-Tory voters take the delivery of 4 leaflets in a day as a sign that the party is really keen.
One of the consistencies of recent polling is that the Tory vote is more or less exactly half the Labour vote. There are of course individual exceptions.
Rather obviously I think this means that Labour cannot possibly lose outright, whatever happens.
Mathematically you could win two thirds of the seats with a vote share just a handful of votes above half that of an opposing party, but obviously it's never going to fall like that.
I’d have to think this through to be sure I was right, but I suspect the very nature of this point is what drives the two “poles” of our FPTP system. Tory vs. Whig/Lib/Lab is driven by “where” the two blocks are that can still have a decent number of seats when the other lot are dominant, because of their one vote distribution.
The whole question about Reform vs. Tory is whether it is like Lab to the Libs in the early 19th century, where they took over that ground in enough places to win, or whether Reform support is spread too thinly to matter.
I keep saying this, but I am struck by the idea that for any given party there’s a tipping point where they start winning big. The seat modellers can manage that to some extent for the liberals because there’s precedents; but Reform/Green are outliers.
Linked to that, the Greens have been scoring well for ages in some polls and we’ve all said “it’ll go back to Labour”. But what if it doesn’t and what if it’s concentrated? Likewise, what if Reform is just a bit better concentrated than UKIP.
Like we are all saying, nothing affects a Starmer win at the macro level, but the shape of the Parliament through to the next election is really interesting, given him starting from a (in context) low base in votes.
Lib to Lab was coupled with a genuine shift in European politics towards a different economic and social model. Reform, like many of the anti-immigration parties, are looking for a reversion or hardening or the old conservative party model. It's hard to see what stops the Tories from becoming a Reform-like party, if that ever looks like a more popular option, which it currently doesn't.
Further on Lucky Guy's link to Redwood. This is a lovely and double example of Redwood's use of the motto of St Trinian's : "Get your blow in first". It gives us an interesting outline of the future.
Redwood firstly gets his blow in by pointing out that I won't say I told you so but I did - standard fare.
But he adds that the Tories lost because they governed and stood as the old One Nation Tory party, proving that the phoenix arising from the ashes must be no such thing.
He offers less to the several million centrists who are declining to vote Tory for reasons obscure to him. It isn't because the Tories are too left wing actually.
Eh?
The One Nation Tories won an election.
The batshit Brexit Tories he supports are about to face an ELE
And his answer is "more batshit"...
Quite!
I expect them to go further down the rabbit hole until the next GE defeat.
The only problem with being a digital nomad is getting round online betting restrictions. Lots of interesting tips on the last few threads but I'm struggling with my VPN. The chance of incarceration also changes the risk profile somewhat...
MiC final Scotland call, Wales to follow 🆕 Our final @Moreincommon_ Scottish voting intention of the election finds Labour lead the SNP by 5. 🔴LAB 35% (+16) 🟡SNP 30% (-15) 🔵CON 16% (-9) 🟠LIB DEM 9% (-1) 🟣REF UK 7% (NEW) 🟢GRN 2% (+1) Changes with 2019, N=1008, 24-28/6 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/general-electi…
Further on Lucky Guy's link to Redwood. This is a lovely and double example of Redwood's use of the motto of St Trinian's : "Get your blow in first". It gives us an interesting outline of the future.
Redwood firstly gets his blow in by pointing out that I won't say I told you so but I did - standard fare.
But he adds that the Tories lost because they governed and stood as the old One Nation Tory party, proving that the phoenix arising from the ashes must be no such thing.
He offers less to the several million centrists who are declining to vote Tory for reasons obscure to him. It isn't because the Tories are too left wing actually.
Eh?
The One Nation Tories won an election.
The batshit Brexit Tories he supports are about to face an ELE
And his answer is "more batshit"...
Quite!
I expect them to go further down the rabbit hole until the next GE defeat.
My interest has already tailed off.
For the first time in a long time, the adults are back in charge.
Comments
Yes, I'm inconsistent.
https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/larry-the-cat-awaits-for-sixth-prime-minister-as-uk-election-nears-5979425
They could maybe get five. In theory.
Guess we’ll have to stay up all night, because the beauty of this election will be in the details.
But if both Brighton seats are tending Green, 2.5 is on the low side and has very little downside as TSE points out.
80 to 1 on Brighton Kempton - is probably the better bet though....
The Black Sea fleet is effectively in hiding, outfought by a navy which consists largely of drone boats.
And British anti-armour missiles were certainly of considerable use in blunting the Putin Blitzkreig. Though a bigger role was played by the ex Soviet artillery fielded by Ukraine.
Con Gain Bootle is 100/1 whereas in reality it's probably 500/1
Green Gain IoW is *200/1* whereas in reality it's probably 10/1.
IoW could easily go four-way marginal. It's the Greens who are in third there, not the LDs who are nowhere, and Reform could split the Tory vote without Labour gaining much at all.
His smug visage is given equal prominence with the local candidate.
I think they'll fall short there but it's possible
Ladbrokes, because they know I generate a lot of business for them, haven't reduced my stakes.
In the Black Sea right now...
Krivak Class: Ladniy, Pitilviy
Grigorovich Class: Essen, Markarov
The Mercury is in the Med.
Kilo class: Alrosa, Krasnodar, Oskol, Novgorod, Kolpino
BSF major combatants confirmed destroyed: Moskva, Rostov-na-Donu
That is not a fleet that is 'all but destroyed'.
Together with the Tories/Reform, our politics really could fracture.
Does mean that 2.5 seats looks like a buy, little downside could easily be 4/5 seats...
Difficult to believe but a lot of the stuff around is difficult to believe. The MRP polls have caused havoc. They have Labour winning seats where they are not in play and the LDs are the challengers, and have LDs winning seats where they are not targeting.
Anyway I am hoping that it really is all up in the air. It will make the night exciting.
But still. If there's a tranche of voters upset he's no longer the candidate, because, well, Brighton, innit, and that it's a leadership loyalist instead (Chris Ward is a former Starmer aide) then there's a chance it's closer than you'd think.
The Grigorovich Class does have a nasty land attack capability, but has been denied access to where it wants to be.
I wouldn’t fancy operating the Kilo class in the litoral.
In context, some decent assets but they are ok the back foot.
https://x.com/osinttechnical/status/1807257446475346081
And also taking out air defence systems
https://x.com/osinttechnical/status/1807060288623010237
Total game-changers in this war, and will likely affect every other land-based war in future.
UK, and other European armies, should order thousands of small drones from Ukraine when this war is over.
80% chance it’s going Green imho
(I know people living there
@TSE
Much appreciated.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christ_in_Glory_in_the_Tetramorph
Bill Kristol
@BillKristol
·
6h
Panic at Biden HQ?
They included a chart in their fundraising email purporting to show Biden's the strongest candidate against Trump. It shows no such thing. All the possible Dem candidates--though obviously less well known than Biden--already do just as well as Biden.
https://x.com/BillKristol/status/1807262625148899385
In one way it doesn’t bother me if you (pl) headbangers want to fritter away another 10 years in the political wilderness.
On the other hand we’ll need decent Opposition so I hope moderate Conservatives tell you lot, politely, to bog off into your hate-filled right wing lunacy.
Rather obviously I think this means that Labour cannot possibly lose outright, whatever happens. Does it also mean that for now there is a link between the votes for the two parties - basically because the ups and downs of Reform polling is reflected in Tory and Labour equally, and that this will be the case in the actual vote. Ie, if Labour are 42 Tories will be 21. If 38, they will be 19 etc.
IANAE but if this is so, then the chances of a Tory catastrophe, rather than mere disaster, are greater. All the predictions of Tories doing better then expected are based on relatively Tory rise and Labour fall.
DNC Chairman Jaime Harrison and Biden campaign manager Julie Chavez Rodriguez held a Saturday afternoon call with dozens of committee members across the country, a group of some of the most influential members of the party. They largely ignored Biden’s weak showing Thursday night or the avalanche of criticism that followed.
Multiple committee members on the call, most granted anonymity to talk about the private discussion, described feeling like they were being gaslighted
https://apnews.com/article/bidendebatetrumpdnc-aa08cc2b556b315e728d1e9c2bf81be9?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=share
@TSE
She stands a reasonable chance of being Biden’s pick if he stands down, and might be worth a couple of quid at long odds.
Redwood firstly gets his blow in by pointing out that I won't say I told you so but I did - standard fare.
But he adds that the Tories lost because they governed and stood as the old One Nation Tory party, proving that the phoenix arising from the ashes must be no such thing.
He offers less to the several million centrists who are declining to vote Tory for reasons obscure to him. It isn't because the Tories are too left wing actually.
I spent a day there this past week (not canvassing!)
Worst case I lose £50.
Best case? I maybe win £70. If they get 6 seats which is a real stretch, but never know.
I do think there is still potential for the election to go horribly wrong for Labour.
https://www.historiccoventry.co.uk/cathedrals/oldcathedral.php?pg=charredcross
The whole question about Reform vs. Tory is whether it is like Lab to the Libs in the early 19th century, where they took over that ground in enough places to win, or whether Reform support is spread too thinly to matter.
I keep saying this, but I am struck by the idea that for any given party there’s a tipping point where they start winning big. The seat modellers can manage that to some extent for the liberals because there’s precedents; but Reform/Green are outliers.
Linked to that, the Greens have been scoring well for ages in some polls and we’ve all said “it’ll go back to Labour”. But what if it doesn’t and what if it’s concentrated? Likewise, what if Reform is just a bit better concentrated than UKIP.
Like we are all saying, nothing affects a Starmer win at the macro level, but the shape of the Parliament through to the next election is really interesting, given him starting from a (in context) low base in votes.
So E is considered more likely by the bookies. Could be a 4 way split there.
By RON I C
"By Ron I see".
It's Ronnie Pickering.
The One Nation Tories won an election.
The batshit Brexit Tories he supports are about to face an ELE
And his answer is "be more batshit"...
The LibDems could win, but I'm not impressed by the professionalism. If you get 1 leaflet you might read it. If you get 4 from the same source on the same day, the impression is that someone is trying to fulfil a quota, and you certainly don't read them unless you're very obsessive. More to the point, I'd argue that you're less likely to take the campaign seriously - but I could be wrong? The evident calculation is that floating anti-Tory voters take the delivery of 4 leaflets in a day as a sign that the party is really keen.
(Ok, I know there are no sitting MPs right now but you know what I mean.)
Was Michael J Fox appearing onstage with Coldplay last night...
1. A Global superstar living his best life playing in front of 100,000 fans?
2. A prop, cynically used by Coldplay to burnish their woke credentials?
I expect them to go further down the rabbit hole until the next GE defeat.
I reckon for various reasons it is 50:50, perhaps 60:40, that Labour will increase their majority in 2028/9.
There. I’ve said it.
🆕 Our final @Moreincommon_ Scottish voting intention of the election finds Labour lead the SNP by 5.
🔴LAB 35% (+16)
🟡SNP 30% (-15)
🔵CON 16% (-9)
🟠LIB DEM 9% (-1)
🟣REF UK 7% (NEW)
🟢GRN 2% (+1)
Changes with 2019, N=1008, 24-28/6 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/general-electi…
For the first time in a long time, the adults are back in charge.