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Some potential betting surprises on Thursday? – politicalbetting.com
Some potential betting surprises on Thursday? – politicalbetting.com
NEW I'm hearing Labour officials are worried about a smattering of unexpected losses on polling day, even if they win big overall.Key vulnerabilities include Thangam Debbonaire, Shabana Mahmood, ex-Reeves aide Heather Iqbal, ex-Starmer aide Chris Ward.https://t.co/u4RjqbRWUk
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And I expect Labour to have a massive majority making losing power in 2029 difficult if not impossible in these more volatile times.
And at what level, a reverse takeover?
Confirms, rather than indicates.
Volatility has been with us fir quite some time now.
Similar considerations here, Ben. I'm really glad I don't live just down the road and have to decide whether to oppose the excellent Alex Chalk in Cheltenham. No such problems with Lazy Laurence Robertson here in Tewkesbury, where the Yellow Diamonds continue to proliferate.
We took a trip out to Pershore last night and were surprised to see the same patterns there. I can just about buy Gloucestershire as a new Liberal fiefdom, but Worcestershire ffs? Not a Blue, Red, or Green flag in sight. I checked when I got home and the various sources confirmed my assumption that West Worcestershire is about as Tory as it gets. If you want to back The Peril you can get 33/1, no problem. Yet they definitely seem to be Trying There.
A misallocation of resources or something in the wind?
Not sure, but the local LDs are quite bullish about Tewkesbury, so I'm satisfied now that I didn't lead you guys astray when I put this up as a bet a couple of weeks ago.
I think there will be a dusting and at least one big shock.
None of this will change the overall narrative
I've been backing Yakoob to win since he announced.
Reform are even bigger threats to national security than the CND.
So he is going on Sky and GB news instead. Ie not frit. Just boycotting the (so-called) BBC
I don’t think we’ll see lots of these Labour losses to the left/Greens, but I think we’ll see a few. (I suppose I should define a few… 1-3.)
Thursday night is going to be very boring in the sense that we all know Starmer is the next PM, but there are lots of contests involving the minor parties that should provide entertainment. I don’t think it really matters to Labour if they lose a seat or 2 to the Greens, but it matters hugely to the Greens whether they win 0 seats, 1 seat or >1 seat. Ditto Reform UK. Plaid and Alliance numbers could also be consequential.
I'm prepared to look far more stupid on that one than Yakoob who I think is at worst 50/50 to win
If Labour gave houseroom for 10 seconds to the pro Hamas brigade, those several million votes would coalesce around voting Tory to keep them out. There are literally 200 seats at stake over this wholly negative issue, over which the UK government has no power.
He's just playing the Trump/MAGA anti media card. However I think we are wise to this now.
Be hell on if they hit their own family.
It shows Labour 424 seats, Conservative 126, Liberal Democrat 53, SNP 17, Plaid Cymru 4, Reform UK 4, and Green 3, giving an overall Labour majority of 200.
That forecast uses the current UK-Elect default forecasting settings, using the actual candidate list and taking some account of constituency opinion polls, by-elections since 2019, Brexit referendum leave/remain percentages, incumbency, and tactical voting among other factors. This forecast combines various methods, including both proportional and UNS elements. The forecast top three in every constituency can be found here: https://www.ukelect.co.uk/20240630ForecastUK/UKTop3Forecast.csv
This is a very strange election. Almost nobody in the real world seems to mentions it, unless to wish it was all over, and I have seen far fewer election posters than in any previous General Election. Possibly because where I spend most of my time (Southampton / Eastleigh / Winchester) contains several formerly marginal and fiercely-contested seats that now seem like certain Labour or highly probable Liberal Democrat wins.
Birmingham Yardley
Ealing North
Blackburn
Luton South
My instincts are saying the same as yours. I wouldn't bet the house on anything. My stakes have been modest, and on the whole I am on at good odds, so I'm sticking rather than twisting now.
As I keep saying. When you need to win about 120 seats to get a majority of one (140 seats if you take boundary changes into account) it is a huge task, however crap the opposition.
And there is more than one opposition in this election. A completely different opposition in Scotland (the SNP) and both Galloways lot and Farages Lot eating into votes south of the border (as well as the Greens and Libdems)
The opinion polls are currently the Tories greatest asset as if they convince voters the result is a foregone conclusion, voters are far more likely to sit at home or vote with their heart not with their tactical head, whether that is for Green, Reform, SNP or Galloway or Lib Dem.
https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2024/06/28/one-nation-conservatism/
ForgottenGenius
@ExStrategist
Stephen Flynn is will be a picture on Friday morning after losing half of his MP's.
Does he have any look other than smug?
Tune and find out.
Cuts rather a sad figure these days, howling into the void on X about the unions, Owen Jones and the EssEnnPee. At least we know who he thinks are the real enemies of Labour.
In Holborn & St Pancras, Feinstein was on a mere 6%. In Islington N, Corbyn was on 29%, versus Labour on 43%. If Corbyn is that behind, is Yakoob going to do a lot better?
Yakoob got 11% in the mayoral election, 20% in Birmingham alone: not bad, but that was in a low turnout election. In Ladywood, it’s a straight fight between him and Labour. Low information voters will vote Labour.
@ShippersUnbound
1/ NEW: The first ever mega-poll by @jamesjohnson252 and JL Partners gives Labour 450 seats and a majority of 250. The Tories are reduced to 105 seats. All the details in our live feed here: https://thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/general-election-latest-news-live-sunak-voters-starmer-phrvd6xr2"
https://x.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1807343906650034578
I'd be less concerned about the Gaza thing. It's a UK GE ffs.
I've actually bought Greens on the spreads. They were cheap, if nothing else.
I would sell Reform, but I'm a scaredy cat.
The BSF have 5 x Guided Missile Frigates, 4 x Kilos and many assorted pleasure craft in the Black Sea. "All but destroyed" is a load of shit you have just made up.
https://inglesp.github.io/apogee/constituencies/E14001388/
but the variance exemplifies the wildness of the polling data and the conclusions drawn.
Eg, for North Dorset
Focaldata: Tory 33 LD 30 (so actually marginal)
Ipsos: Tory 42 LD 17. (And Labour second on 22)
"The Brexit referendum is a fine example of this. Markets often behave as a flock of panicking sheep.
I haven't altered my betting position (360/201/42/21/ others), at least not yet, but I have teeed up a reverse ferret if needed!"
And after:
"looks like no reverse ferret needed by Foxy,
360/201/42/21 not too far out.
I thought SNP would do well so should be some good constituency bets there, sadly including East Dunbartonshire"
Biden to consider his run at camp David
Its mode of presentation emphasises to the reader that most of the seats predicted to stay Tory do so only by tiny % points. MOE is real.
Yakoob I think should be favourite to win, if he does so he'll take over the mantle from Galloway as the vilest MP in the Commons. That said Shabana Mahmood is a decent person and her personal vote may still get her over the line. Yakoob is focusing his personal narcissicm on Ladywood and the campaigns of others of his ilk seem lower key by comparison with the wider Yakoob campaign in the mayoral election, so I can't see his lot picking up any seats elsewhere in the West Midlands.
Wouldn't bet on it, mind.
"XL bully shot after attacking and injuring a woman in Manchester
Police officers shot the dog after it attacked members of the public and injured a woman. Officers were unable to regain control of the XL bully before shooting it."
https://news.sky.com/story/xl-bully-shot-after-attacking-and-injuring-a-woman-in-manchester-13160980"
This is the archive page you want as a start - December 2019:
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/12/
There is iirc normally a monthly date archive table down the RHS on the politicalbetting.com (not vanilla) site, but that and the blogroll seem to have vanished afaics - perhaps @rcs1000 is running a shortened page to help performance during the Election period?
For future reference, Wordpress does all sorts of things that can be found by guessing urls but it is all configurable so unpredictable. If you are not a Geek I would recommend using the date based archive of the Internet Archive, which is well organised and has PB going back to 2004 including comments, and some decent search facilities if you look for them:
https://web.archive.org/web/20240000000000*/http://www6.politicalbetting.com/
(If that www6. causes problems start by putting politicalbetting.com into the search box.)
This is the first article I can find from Magic Mike, from 11 June 2004, about Ken Livingstone. The next one is I think about postal voting.
https://web.archive.org/web/20040519051338/http://www6.politicalbetting.com/
On another note, Hexham is an interesting one - never been anything other than Tory, if it goes they're in for an epic trouncing.
Biden 1.71-1.73
Newsom 6.4-7.0
M Obama 10.5-11
Harris 12-13.6
Whitmer 17.5-28
H Clinton 38-46