TBF, in this he’s not wrong. There is a back and forth debate going on behind the scenes, I’ve little doubt.
Biden has improved his case with a competent appearance at the rally, but no one’s going to forget their initial reaction to the debate. And the polling fuels the argument.
If he continues to be determined to carry on, it’s hard to predict what then happens.
Dems: get this sorted. It will be like a tooth extraction. Horrific at the time but pleasurable relief to follow.
Biden told us he was the bridge to the next generation.
Well the bridge has been given two months before it falls.
There are two other polls which are less bad - but this one is quite dramatic. 3 or 4 as bad as this and the pressure on Biden will become unsustainably intense. Even his comeback speech today was cringe and awkward - coughing, stumbling. No way be finishes a second term
I've finally listened to Rishi Sunak's comments in reply to the RefUK slurs.
TBH I think it's the most straightforward and genuine thing I have seen from him all campaign.
I spoke to a colleague at work today who's an ex-policy analyst and modeller at HM Treasury. I didn't prompt him but we got onto the election and he volunteered that he worked with him a few years back and said that he's a really sharp and smart guy, and a really nice guy too.
He doesn't recognise how he's being portrayed in the media.
I've finally listened to Rishi Sunak's comments in reply to the RefUK slurs.
TBH I think it's the most straightforward and genuine thing I have seen from him all campaign.
Pity he chose to do it about the words of a paid actor doing 'secret filming work'. One wonders if he'll have to apologise.
If he was a "paid actor" playing the part of a rough racist in order to discredit Reform and Farage then why was he using his own name?
Surely if he was playing a part then he would assume a name that fit his character rather than use his own name.
How could he possibly have done that? A fake identity would have been rumbled in seconds!
Yes, RefUK's vetting procedures are famously watertiii... wait
Not before the event - he was allowed to go out canvassing without even being a party member. I mean after it. The papers know your identity, social media, Onlyfans account etc. as soon as you do so much as throw a milkshake. He could never have used "Racey McRacistface" - to do this he was always going to have to be him. He just didn't cover his tracks as a jobbing actor nearly well enough.
I am really struggling to get to grips with your version of this conspiracy theory.
Are you suggesting that he used his own name deliberately as he was certain to be exposed as an actor?
What was the point of doing that?
Also, LG's hypothesis has the clear corollary that about half a dozen other actors are involved. Maybe he could find their websites as well.
What hypothesis?
Reform activist has bizarre racist meltdown about p****s in a Channel 4 sting operation It turns out said acivist had wandered in for the first time that same day, wasn't known to anyone and wasn't a party member It also turns out said activist is a paid actor, specialising in 'secret filming' who whilst being well-spoken himself, boasts a good line in 'rough talk' that he chose to take for a test drive during his speech
You decide what you think - it's not for me to hypothesise.
As for the other people who were filmed, I haven't seen it but I'd guess they're just genuine idiot racists. There are plenty in Reform. But the problem for the media and the main parties is that the showpiece 'Gotcha' that was going to get the voting public in the feels, turns out to be an odd confection. Nobody will remember the other stuff because it was just the hors d'oeuvres.
Yup. I think in time it'll settle back to a 2-3 point deficit. But the damage is done.
We’re always told debates don’t really decide elections. This one might
Biden’s performance makes you realise that Sunak isn’t so bad.
Biden v Trump 2024 must be the lowest grade election - in terms of candidate quality - in the entire western world since the widespread advent of democracy
It really is that bad. A convicted felon and quasi lunatic versus a creepy liar and dementia patient
I've finally listened to Rishi Sunak's comments in reply to the RefUK slurs.
TBH I think it's the most straightforward and genuine thing I have seen from him all campaign.
Pity he chose to do it about the words of a paid actor doing 'secret filming work'. One wonders if he'll have to apologise.
If he was a "paid actor" playing the part of a rough racist in order to discredit Reform and Farage then why was he using his own name?
Surely if he was playing a part then he would assume a name that fit his character rather than use his own name.
How could he possibly have done that? A fake identity would have been rumbled in seconds!
Yes, RefUK's vetting procedures are famously watertiii... wait
Not before the event - he was allowed to go out canvassing without even being a party member. I mean after it. The papers know your identity, social media, Onlyfans account etc. as soon as you do so much as throw a milkshake. He could never have used "Racey McRacistface" - to do this he was always going to have to be him. He just didn't cover his tracks as a jobbing actor nearly well enough.
I am really struggling to get to grips with your version of this conspiracy theory.
Are you suggesting that he used his own name deliberately as he was certain to be exposed as an actor?
What was the point of doing that?
You really are being quite terrifyingly dense. If this was set up as a hit piece to discredit Reform, deliberately conceived as a media scandal, HOW COULD HE POSSIBLY HAVE USED A FALSE NAME?
Which is more likely? A complex hit piece to discredit Reform UK, or there are some racists campaigning for Reform UK?
What’s next, LuckyGuy? Donald Trump wouldn’t have slept with Stormy Daniels? Boris Johnson would never lie about having an affair?
It’s Goodwin. His polls are designed to generate headlines and nothing more. Note that this poll shows LAB +5. No other poll shows anything like that. The guy is a clown.
Yup. I think in time it'll settle back to a 2-3 point deficit. But the damage is done.
We’re always told debates don’t really decide elections. This one might
Biden’s performance makes you realise that Sunak isn’t so bad.
Biden v Trump 2024 must be the lowest grade election - in terms of candidate quality - in the entire western world since the widespread advent of democracy
It really is that bad. A convicted felon and quasi lunatic versus a creepy liar and dementia patient
Hitler vs Hindenburg must have been quite similar.
Thames Water board approved £150m payout hours before funding U-turn Exclusive: Ofwat to investigate circumstances around payment of dividend to intermediate parent company
I've finally listened to Rishi Sunak's comments in reply to the RefUK slurs.
TBH I think it's the most straightforward and genuine thing I have seen from him all campaign.
Pity he chose to do it about the words of a paid actor doing 'secret filming work'. One wonders if he'll have to apologise.
If he was a "paid actor" playing the part of a rough racist in order to discredit Reform and Farage then why was he using his own name?
Surely if he was playing a part then he would assume a name that fit his character rather than use his own name.
How could he possibly have done that? A fake identity would have been rumbled in seconds!
Yes, RefUK's vetting procedures are famously watertiii... wait
Not before the event - he was allowed to go out canvassing without even being a party member. I mean after it. The papers know your identity, social media, Onlyfans account etc. as soon as you do so much as throw a milkshake. He could never have used "Racey McRacistface" - to do this he was always going to have to be him. He just didn't cover his tracks as a jobbing actor nearly well enough.
I am really struggling to get to grips with your version of this conspiracy theory.
Are you suggesting that he used his own name deliberately as he was certain to be exposed as an actor?
What was the point of doing that?
Also, LG's hypothesis has the clear corollary that about half a dozen other actors are involved. Maybe he could find their websites as well.
What hypothesis?
Reform activist has bizarre racist meltdown about p****s in a Channel 4 sting operation It turns out said acivist had wandered in for the first time that same day, wasn't known to anyone and wasn't a party member It also turns out said activist is a paid actor, specialising in 'secret filming' who whilst being well-spoken himself, boasts a good line in 'rough talk' that he chose to take for a test drive during his speech
You decide what you think - it's not for me to hypothesise.
As for the other people who were filmed, I haven't seen it but I'd guess they're just genuine idiot racists. There are plenty in Reform. But the problem for the media and the main parties is that the showpiece 'Gotcha' that was going to get the voting public in the feels, turns out to be an odd confection. Nobody will remember the other stuff because it was just the hors d'oeuvres.
This actor may get a lot of job offers now. Doing his own Pr. Nige is good at that. He has been upstaged.
I've finally listened to Rishi Sunak's comments in reply to the RefUK slurs.
TBH I think it's the most straightforward and genuine thing I have seen from him all campaign.
Pity he chose to do it about the words of a paid actor doing 'secret filming work'. One wonders if he'll have to apologise.
If he was a "paid actor" playing the part of a rough racist in order to discredit Reform and Farage then why was he using his own name?
Surely if he was playing a part then he would assume a name that fit his character rather than use his own name.
How could he possibly have done that? A fake identity would have been rumbled in seconds!
Yes, RefUK's vetting procedures are famously watertiii... wait
Not before the event - he was allowed to go out canvassing without even being a party member. I mean after it. The papers know your identity, social media, Onlyfans account etc. as soon as you do so much as throw a milkshake. He could never have used "Racey McRacistface" - to do this he was always going to have to be him. He just didn't cover his tracks as a jobbing actor nearly well enough.
I am really struggling to get to grips with your version of this conspiracy theory.
Are you suggesting that he used his own name deliberately as he was certain to be exposed as an actor?
What was the point of doing that?
You really are being quite terrifyingly dense. If this was set up as a hit piece to discredit Reform, deliberately conceived as a media scandal, HOW COULD HE POSSIBLY HAVE USED A FALSE NAME?
Which is more likely? A complex hit piece to discredit Reform UK, or there are some racists campaigning for Reform UK?
What’s next, LuckyGuy? Donald Trump wouldn’t have slept with Stormy Daniels? Boris Johnson would never lie about having an affair?
Yes, watch out, I'll be suggesting that the President of the USA is senile next!! Ho Ho!
I absolutely acknowledge the presence of racists in Reform UK. It would be crazy to suggest otherwise - they're in all parties but undoubtedly in RefUK in greater numbers.
I am merely making the outlandish suggestion that an equity member specialising in doing cockney accents and secret filming, and having worked for Channel 4, is secretly filmed whilst canvassing for Reform for the first time ever, doing his cockney, by Channel 4, that doesn't quite pass the sniff test.
They were always going to get a couple of bigoted or gamey comments if they tried. Not 'a moment' though.
Yup. I think in time it'll settle back to a 2-3 point deficit. But the damage is done.
We’re always told debates don’t really decide elections. This one might
Biden’s performance makes you realise that Sunak isn’t so bad.
Biden v Trump 2024 must be the lowest grade election - in terms of candidate quality - in the entire western world since the widespread advent of democracy
It really is that bad. A convicted felon and quasi lunatic versus a creepy liar and dementia patient
Hitler vs Hindenburg must have been quite similar.
Hitler was PM (Chancellor) Hindenburg was President.
After Hindenburg snuffed it, Hitler became both Chancellor and President and invented the title of Reich Leader (Fuhrer).
It’s Goodwin. His polls are designed to generate headlines and nothing more. Note that this poll shows LAB +5. No other poll shows anything like that. The guy is a clown.
But actually this poll is much more in line with other polls - it’s less of an outlier
Also I don’t buy that Goodwin is a “clown”. He’s not making shit up or lying. I’m sure he’s doing dedicated polling as best as he can - yes he clearly has a party position but his reputation also rests on his being reliable and truthful with stuff like this
An unknown bias creeping into his data? Perhaps. It happens. But actually clownish falsehoods? No
Moreover other polls are equally quirky. Some have reform down on 13% some on 21%. I wonder if the pollsters are having problems modelling such a weird and unique election
This time next week, the Tory leadership hopefuls who have clung on to their seats will be having the telephone lines installed.
The excitement of another election to entertain us over the summer.
Maybe Mr Rees-Mogg might have an extra telegraph line installed into the local village post office
No such fripperies in the 18th century.
If you don’t want Rees-Mogg to receive the nomination papers, all you need to do is shoot all the carrier pigeons in Somerset.
As for Scvotland, I realise now the particular problem is the school hols beginning now - so lots of parents haven't had the packs. Other councils now following Edinburgh.
Yup. I think in time it'll settle back to a 2-3 point deficit. But the damage is done.
We’re always told debates don’t really decide elections. This one might
Biden’s performance makes you realise that Sunak isn’t so bad.
Biden v Trump 2024 must be the lowest grade election - in terms of candidate quality - in the entire western world since the widespread advent of democracy
It really is that bad. A convicted felon and quasi lunatic versus a creepy liar and dementia patient
Hitler vs Hindenburg must have been quite similar.
Yup. I think in time it'll settle back to a 2-3 point deficit. But the damage is done.
We’re always told debates don’t really decide elections. This one might
Biden’s performance makes you realise that Sunak isn’t so bad.
Biden v Trump 2024 must be the lowest grade election - in terms of candidate quality - in the entire western world since the widespread advent of democracy
It really is that bad. A convicted felon and quasi lunatic versus a creepy liar and dementia patient
Hitler vs Hindenburg must have been quite similar.
It’s Goodwin. His polls are designed to generate headlines and nothing more. Note that this poll shows LAB +5. No other poll shows anything like that. The guy is a clown.
I know we are not supposed to question members of the British Polling Council but these guys haven't posted an update on twitter since April.
I've finally listened to Rishi Sunak's comments in reply to the RefUK slurs.
TBH I think it's the most straightforward and genuine thing I have seen from him all campaign.
Pity he chose to do it about the words of a paid actor doing 'secret filming work'. One wonders if he'll have to apologise.
If he was a "paid actor" playing the part of a rough racist in order to discredit Reform and Farage then why was he using his own name?
Surely if he was playing a part then he would assume a name that fit his character rather than use his own name.
How could he possibly have done that? A fake identity would have been rumbled in seconds!
Yes, RefUK's vetting procedures are famously watertiii... wait
Not before the event - he was allowed to go out canvassing without even being a party member. I mean after it. The papers know your identity, social media, Onlyfans account etc. as soon as you do so much as throw a milkshake. He could never have used "Racey McRacistface" - to do this he was always going to have to be him. He just didn't cover his tracks as a jobbing actor nearly well enough.
I am really struggling to get to grips with your version of this conspiracy theory.
Are you suggesting that he used his own name deliberately as he was certain to be exposed as an actor?
What was the point of doing that?
You really are being quite terrifyingly dense. If this was set up as a hit piece to discredit Reform, deliberately conceived as a media scandal, HOW COULD HE POSSIBLY HAVE USED A FALSE NAME?
Which is more likely? A complex hit piece to discredit Reform UK, or there are some racists campaigning for Reform UK?
What’s next, LuckyGuy? Donald Trump wouldn’t have slept with Stormy Daniels? Boris Johnson would never lie about having an affair?
Yes, watch out, I'll be suggesting that the President of the USA is senile next!! Ho Ho!
I absolutely acknowledge the presence of racists in Reform UK. It would be crazy to suggest otherwise - they're in all parties but undoubtedly in RefUK in greater numbers.
I am merely making the outlandish suggestion that an equity member specialising in doing cockney accents and secret filming, and having worked for Channel 4, is secretly filmed whilst canvassing for Reform for the first time ever, doing his cockney, by Channel 4, that doesn't quite pass the sniff test.
They were always going to get a couple of bigoted or gamey comments if they tried. Not 'a moment' though.
You’re quite right that there is certainly a suspicious air to it all. If this was any other party PB would be crying foul
But because it’s reform too many want to believe it. Yet again we face this issue. The emotions master the facts
Now, I dunno if this was a hit job. I’ve not had time to read. Maybe the guy is a legit racist in reform and C4 nailed it. Could be. But prima facie it looks odd
Yup. I think in time it'll settle back to a 2-3 point deficit. But the damage is done.
We’re always told debates don’t really decide elections. This one might
Biden’s performance makes you realise that Sunak isn’t so bad.
Biden v Trump 2024 must be the lowest grade election - in terms of candidate quality - in the entire western world since the widespread advent of democracy
It really is that bad. A convicted felon and quasi lunatic versus a creepy liar and dementia patient
Dunno. Johnson vs Corbyn runs them into a very close second.
It’s Goodwin. His polls are designed to generate headlines and nothing more. Note that this poll shows LAB +5. No other poll shows anything like that. The guy is a clown.
But actually this poll is much more in line with other polls - it’s less of an outlier
Also I don’t buy that Goodwin is a “clown”. He’s not making shit up or lying. I’m sure he’s doing dedicated polling as best as he can - yes he clearly has a party position but his reputation also rests on his being reliable and truthful with stuff like this
An unknown bias creeping into his data? Perhaps. It happens. But actually clownish falsehoods? No
Moreover other polls are equally quirky. Some have reform down on 13% some on 21%. I wonder if the pollsters are having problems modelling such a weird and unique election
You are “sure he is doing dedicated polling as best he can”? Really? I remind you that he is the only BPC pollster we are allowed to question on here. And with good reason.
Reform aren't racist It wasn't a real Reform activist Ok, there were several Reform activists saying racist and homophobic stuff but all parties have that --- you are here --- Sure the tape of Farage horsewhipping the small Black lad looked bad out of context but... Can't stop to chat I'm off to get fitted for my boots
Reform are not racist It wasn't a real Reform activist I have never suggested that nobody supporting or even working for Reform is racist - that would be utterly absurd I haven't remotely shifted in any of my opinions regarding Reform, either today, or at any time during the campaign.
It’s Goodwin. His polls are designed to generate headlines and nothing more. Note that this poll shows LAB +5. No other poll shows anything like that. The guy is a clown.
But actually this poll is much more in line with other polls - it’s less of an outlier
Also I don’t buy that Goodwin is a “clown”. He’s not making shit up or lying. I’m sure he’s doing dedicated polling as best as he can - yes he clearly has a party position but his reputation also rests on his being reliable and truthful with stuff like this
An unknown bias creeping into his data? Perhaps. It happens. But actually clownish falsehoods? No
Moreover other polls are equally quirky. Some have reform down on 13% some on 21%. I wonder if the pollsters are having problems modelling such a weird and unique election
Well. We ain't got long to find out. Getting kinda bored with the inconsistent polling and speculation. Should imagine July 5th we'll have some real politics to talk about. But maybe that's hopecasting...
"Sam Freedman @Samfr Correct. And remember they are seeing initial batches of postal votes. Quote (((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 4(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges One thing to remember about the analysis as we move forward. Both sides are starting to see evidence of actual voting from postal vote returns."
Sam Freedman @Samfr · 37m Postal votes are opened in advance and parties are allowed to be present. They're not allowed to record a tally but usually can get a decent sense of whether they're on track.
Sam Freedman @Samfr This is how it works: Tim (totally unremarkable) @forwardnotback
PSA: Agents/others know how many PVs have been issued They have a good idea how many PVs their candidate has been promised They get daily tallies of PVs returned Then they can do the maths They do not see which way individual PVs have been cast
Are they PVs verified by ward? That’s what usually gives the game away in the States.
They are verified by individual voter and polling district. But I really don’t see that the information about how many PVs have come back tells the parties anything useful about their electoral performance. As I set out earlier in the week, people seem to love talking about information from postal votes, because it’s so attractive to have what sounds like a little bit if inside information as to how things are going. But it’s almost always rubbish.
It’s Goodwin. His polls are designed to generate headlines and nothing more. Note that this poll shows LAB +5. No other poll shows anything like that. The guy is a clown.
But actually this poll is much more in line with other polls - it’s less of an outlier
Also I don’t buy that Goodwin is a “clown”. He’s not making shit up or lying. I’m sure he’s doing dedicated polling as best as he can - yes he clearly has a party position but his reputation also rests on his being reliable and truthful with stuff like this
An unknown bias creeping into his data? Perhaps. It happens. But actually clownish falsehoods? No
Moreover other polls are equally quirky. Some have reform down on 13% some on 21%. I wonder if the pollsters are having problems modelling such a weird and unique election
You are “sure he is doing dedicated polling as best he can”? Really? I remind you that he is the only BPC pollster we are allowed to question on here. And with good reason.
Yup. I think in time it'll settle back to a 2-3 point deficit. But the damage is done.
We’re always told debates don’t really decide elections. This one might
Biden’s performance makes you realise that Sunak isn’t so bad.
Biden v Trump 2024 must be the lowest grade election - in terms of candidate quality - in the entire western world since the widespread advent of democracy
It really is that bad. A convicted felon and quasi lunatic versus a creepy liar and dementia patient
Dunno. Johnson vs Corbyn runs them into a very close second.
It’s Goodwin. His polls are designed to generate headlines and nothing more. Note that this poll shows LAB +5. No other poll shows anything like that. The guy is a clown.
I know we are not supposed to question members of the British Polling Council but these guys haven't posted an update on twitter since April.
Nope. @TheScreamingEagles has said several times that we are ARE allowed to question Goodwin, because of his erratic and unorthodox behaviour. Personally, I’m surprised he is still a member of the BPC. Very much the exception that proves the rule.
This time next week, the Tory leadership hopefuls who have clung on to their seats will be having the telephone lines installed.
The excitement of another election to entertain us over the summer.
Maybe Mr Rees-Mogg might have an extra telegraph line installed into the local village post office
No such fripperies in the 18th century.
I read today* that in late 19th century Germany there was a sudden interest in pretending to be an aristocrat and have connections/dress in old fashioned way etc etc.
Epping Forest could be a good candidate for highest Tory share at the election, for the simple reason that there isn't a Reform candidate standing there, and they probably would have lost 15-20% to them if they had been.
It’s Goodwin. His polls are designed to generate headlines and nothing more. Note that this poll shows LAB +5. No other poll shows anything like that. The guy is a clown.
But actually this poll is much more in line with other polls - it’s less of an outlier
Also I don’t buy that Goodwin is a “clown”. He’s not making shit up or lying. I’m sure he’s doing dedicated polling as best as he can - yes he clearly has a party position but his reputation also rests on his being reliable and truthful with stuff like this
An unknown bias creeping into his data? Perhaps. It happens. But actually clownish falsehoods? No
Moreover other polls are equally quirky. Some have reform down on 13% some on 21%. I wonder if the pollsters are having problems modelling such a weird and unique election
You are “sure he is doing dedicated polling as best he can”? Really? I remind you that he is the only BPC pollster we are allowed to question on here. And with good reason.
Because the editor of the site doesn't like what his polls say, but they do like what other polls that diverge just as much from the average in the other direction say?
I've finally listened to Rishi Sunak's comments in reply to the RefUK slurs.
TBH I think it's the most straightforward and genuine thing I have seen from him all campaign.
Pity he chose to do it about the words of a paid actor doing 'secret filming work'. One wonders if he'll have to apologise.
If he was a "paid actor" playing the part of a rough racist in order to discredit Reform and Farage then why was he using his own name?
Surely if he was playing a part then he would assume a name that fit his character rather than use his own name.
How could he possibly have done that? A fake identity would have been rumbled in seconds!
Yes, RefUK's vetting procedures are famously watertiii... wait
Not before the event - he was allowed to go out canvassing without even being a party member. I mean after it. The papers know your identity, social media, Onlyfans account etc. as soon as you do so much as throw a milkshake. He could never have used "Racey McRacistface" - to do this he was always going to have to be him. He just didn't cover his tracks as a jobbing actor nearly well enough.
I am really struggling to get to grips with your version of this conspiracy theory.
Are you suggesting that he used his own name deliberately as he was certain to be exposed as an actor?
What was the point of doing that?
You really are being quite terrifyingly dense. If this was set up as a hit piece to discredit Reform, deliberately conceived as a media scandal, HOW COULD HE POSSIBLY HAVE USED A FALSE NAME?
Which is more likely? A complex hit piece to discredit Reform UK, or there are some racists campaigning for Reform UK?
What’s next, LuckyGuy? Donald Trump wouldn’t have slept with Stormy Daniels? Boris Johnson would never lie about having an affair?
Yes, watch out, I'll be suggesting that the President of the USA is senile next!! Ho Ho!
I absolutely acknowledge the presence of racists in Reform UK. It would be crazy to suggest otherwise - they're in all parties but undoubtedly in RefUK in greater numbers.
I am merely making the outlandish suggestion that an equity member specialising in doing cockney accents and secret filming, and having worked for Channel 4, is secretly filmed whilst canvassing for Reform for the first time ever, doing his cockney, by Channel 4, that doesn't quite pass the sniff test.
They were always going to get a couple of bigoted or gamey comments if they tried. Not 'a moment' though.
You’re quite right that there is certainly a suspicious air to it all. If this was any other party PB would be crying foul
But because it’s reform too many want to believe it. Yet again we face this issue. The emotions master the facts
Now, I dunno if this was a hit job. I’ve not had time to read. Maybe the guy is a legit racist in reform and C4 nailed it. Could be. But prima facie it looks odd
It's amazing how many 'intelligent' people on here are totally unself-aware of their confirmation bias. Admittedly Leon you do have a tendency to hyperbole (selling all your shares at the first sight of omicron) but you do generally acknowledge your own preferences.
Yup. I think in time it'll settle back to a 2-3 point deficit. But the damage is done.
We’re always told debates don’t really decide elections. This one might
Biden’s performance makes you realise that Sunak isn’t so bad.
Biden v Trump 2024 must be the lowest grade election - in terms of candidate quality - in the entire western world since the widespread advent of democracy
It really is that bad. A convicted felon and quasi lunatic versus a creepy liar and dementia patient
Dunno. Johnson vs Corbyn runs them into a very close second.
Chirac v Jean Marie le pen?
Even then the dubious chirac was significantly more impressive than either Trump or Biden
As I’ve said before - for zero Tories that’s a price I’m willing someone else to pay. But for LOTO Farage? Nononononononononono
Even if it were Davey LOTO if the Tories face literal wipeout then the funniest possible result would be for them to hold a solitary seat, late on the 5th, after a recount. Purely for Leon.
Yup. I think in time it'll settle back to a 2-3 point deficit. But the damage is done.
We’re always told debates don’t really decide elections. This one might
Biden’s performance makes you realise that Sunak isn’t so bad.
Biden v Trump 2024 must be the lowest grade election - in terms of candidate quality - in the entire western world since the widespread advent of democracy
It really is that bad. A convicted felon and quasi lunatic versus a creepy liar and dementia patient
Dunno. Johnson vs Corbyn runs them into a very close second.
Chirac vs Le Pen 2002 was probably worse than Johnson/Corbyn, not least because the winner was assured of 7 years. The Italians have thrown up some dreadful choices over the decades, including many elections of the Corrupt vs the Commies. But really, if you're going to spread the net that widely, it's hard not to invoke Godwin for the number one.
It’s Goodwin. His polls are designed to generate headlines and nothing more. Note that this poll shows LAB +5. No other poll shows anything like that. The guy is a clown.
But actually this poll is much more in line with other polls - it’s less of an outlier
Also I don’t buy that Goodwin is a “clown”. He’s not making shit up or lying. I’m sure he’s doing dedicated polling as best as he can - yes he clearly has a party position but his reputation also rests on his being reliable and truthful with stuff like this
An unknown bias creeping into his data? Perhaps. It happens. But actually clownish falsehoods? No
Moreover other polls are equally quirky. Some have reform down on 13% some on 21%. I wonder if the pollsters are having problems modelling such a weird and unique election
You are “sure he is doing dedicated polling as best he can”? Really? I remind you that he is the only BPC pollster we are allowed to question on here. And with good reason.
But this poll isn’t especially outlying
Look at the variations in the numbers. His surveys are all over the shop.
Yup. I think in time it'll settle back to a 2-3 point deficit. But the damage is done.
We’re always told debates don’t really decide elections. This one might
Biden’s performance makes you realise that Sunak isn’t so bad.
Biden v Trump 2024 must be the lowest grade election - in terms of candidate quality - in the entire western world since the widespread advent of democracy
It really is that bad. A convicted felon and quasi lunatic versus a creepy liar and dementia patient
Hitler vs Hindenburg must have been quite similar.
I've finally listened to Rishi Sunak's comments in reply to the RefUK slurs.
TBH I think it's the most straightforward and genuine thing I have seen from him all campaign.
Pity he chose to do it about the words of a paid actor doing 'secret filming work'. One wonders if he'll have to apologise.
If he was a "paid actor" playing the part of a rough racist in order to discredit Reform and Farage then why was he using his own name?
Surely if he was playing a part then he would assume a name that fit his character rather than use his own name.
How could he possibly have done that? A fake identity would have been rumbled in seconds!
Yes, RefUK's vetting procedures are famously watertiii... wait
Not before the event - he was allowed to go out canvassing without even being a party member. I mean after it. The papers know your identity, social media, Onlyfans account etc. as soon as you do so much as throw a milkshake. He could never have used "Racey McRacistface" - to do this he was always going to have to be him. He just didn't cover his tracks as a jobbing actor nearly well enough.
I am really struggling to get to grips with your version of this conspiracy theory.
Are you suggesting that he used his own name deliberately as he was certain to be exposed as an actor?
What was the point of doing that?
You really are being quite terrifyingly dense. If this was set up as a hit piece to discredit Reform, deliberately conceived as a media scandal, HOW COULD HE POSSIBLY HAVE USED A FALSE NAME?
Which is more likely? A complex hit piece to discredit Reform UK, or there are some racists campaigning for Reform UK?
What’s next, LuckyGuy? Donald Trump wouldn’t have slept with Stormy Daniels? Boris Johnson would never lie about having an affair?
Yes, watch out, I'll be suggesting that the President of the USA is senile next!! Ho Ho!
I absolutely acknowledge the presence of racists in Reform UK. It would be crazy to suggest otherwise - they're in all parties but undoubtedly in RefUK in greater numbers.
I am merely making the outlandish suggestion that an equity member specialising in doing cockney accents and secret filming, and having worked for Channel 4, is secretly filmed whilst canvassing for Reform for the first time ever, doing his cockney, by Channel 4, that doesn't quite pass the sniff test.
They were always going to get a couple of bigoted or gamey comments if they tried. Not 'a moment' though.
You’re quite right that there is certainly a suspicious air to it all. If this was any other party PB would be crying foul
But because it’s reform too many want to believe it. Yet again we face this issue. The emotions master the facts
Now, I dunno if this was a hit job. I’ve not had time to read. Maybe the guy is a legit racist in reform and C4 nailed it. Could be. But prima facie it looks odd
It's amazing how many 'intelligent' people on here are totally unself-aware of their confirmation bias. Admittedly Leon you do have a tendency to hyperbole (selling all your shares at the first sight of omicron) but you do generally acknowledge your own preferences.
Selling my shares at that precise moment - the onset of global covid - was one of the few sensible financial moves I’ve made on the back of my own correct extrapolations. Normally I’m rubbish at turning a good hunch into actual gain
My theory on the racist Reform canvasser: yes, an actor. Yes, playing a part. A middle class fantasist with racist views who has a kink for extreme Alf Garnet cosplaying and who saw in the Reform campaign a chance to indulge his fantasy. Not a plant for Ch4 (they’re not that stupid), but not a bona fide Reform activist either.
@BarackObama 'Bad debate nights happen. Trust me, I know. But this election is still a choice between someone who has fought for ordinary folks his entire life and someone who only cares about himself. Between someone who tells the truth; who knows right from wrong and will give it to the American people straight — and someone who lies through his teeth for his own benefit. Last night didn’t change that, and it’s why so much is at stake in November' https://x.com/BarackObama/status/1806758633230709017
Yup. I think in time it'll settle back to a 2-3 point deficit. But the damage is done.
We’re always told debates don’t really decide elections. This one might
Biden’s performance makes you realise that Sunak isn’t so bad.
Biden v Trump 2024 must be the lowest grade election - in terms of candidate quality - in the entire western world since the widespread advent of democracy
It really is that bad. A convicted felon and quasi lunatic versus a creepy liar and dementia patient
Theory: Douglas Adams was right back in 1978.
One of the jokes about Zaphod Beeblebrox was that Galactic President was essentially a MacGuffin. It was a non-job, because anyone who actually wanted to be President of the Galaxy was, by definition, unfit for the role. It's the same argument for a constitutional monarchy, or a bicycling presidency. The role is so absurd that nobody rational can take it seriously.
Being President of the United States is now much the same. Made worse by the stupid number of hoops and degrees of grovelling you have to do to get anywhere near becoming a realsitic candidate. Finding someone with enough quality and sanity to want to take the role is like finding a needle in a haystack, even in a country of however many hundred million people. So the Democrats have to keep running with a genial old codger who really ought to be allowed to retire and the Republicans have been taken over by a complete psychopath. In both cases, there isn't anyone obviously better.
(It's a similar issue on this smaller island. An awful lot of our recent PMs have been beaten by the job pretty quickly. Cameron managed a few good years, Blair looked on top of things for a decent while, Major did for a bit, Thatcher for rather longer. It's not a great success rate, is it?)
Say Biden resigns and Harris becomes President. The Vice Presidency is vacant. Harris is allowed to nominate her replacement, but Congress blocks it (the GOP playing silly b*gets in the House).
Who presides over the electoral vote count in January if no Vice President is seated at that time?
Harris as she would remain VP as well as taking office as President until a replacement is chosen
I don't think that's right. I believe the responsibilities of VP (of which there are few but officiating over electoral vote count is one) would pass to Mike Johnson as Speaker.
However, I doubt they'd refuse to confirm any reasonable choice. The House GOP is increasingly extreme but there are enough who'd either confirm or abstain.
No they wouldn't, the VP would remain as elected by the Congress in 2020, the Constitution only says the Speaker fills the role of President if both the President and VP are dead or incapacitated. If the VP is still alive and kicking they retain the role, the Speaker doesn't fill it
I’m sorry to say you’re wrong on this. The Vice Presidency would become vacant immediately upon Harris assuming the Presidency.
To understand why, you need to look at Article II of the Constitution (which addresses the Electoral College).
Notwithstanding the changes to Electoral College ushered in under the 12th Amendment, Article II mandates that the President and the Vice President shall not be from the same state. Although the Article II in this instance does not relate specifically to Presidential Succession, it does create an obstacle given the role of the Vice President (and not the President) in the certification of the Electoral College votes.
Harris would not be permitted to hold both offices by virtue of being from a single state. Having sworn the Presidential Oath of Office and assumed said responsibilities, the Vice Presidency falls away (or sits in remainder) until such time that a successor is nominated and approved by both the House and the Senate.
The responsibilities and roles of the Vice President within the Legislature (as articulated in the Constitution) devolve to the President Pro Tempore of the Senate. The Vice President has no responsibilities and roles within the Executive (as articulated in the Constitution) so the point is moot.
I've finally listened to Rishi Sunak's comments in reply to the RefUK slurs.
TBH I think it's the most straightforward and genuine thing I have seen from him all campaign.
Pity he chose to do it about the words of a paid actor doing 'secret filming work'. One wonders if he'll have to apologise.
If he was a "paid actor" playing the part of a rough racist in order to discredit Reform and Farage then why was he using his own name?
Surely if he was playing a part then he would assume a name that fit his character rather than use his own name.
How could he possibly have done that? A fake identity would have been rumbled in seconds!
Yes, RefUK's vetting procedures are famously watertiii... wait
Not before the event - he was allowed to go out canvassing without even being a party member. I mean after it. The papers know your identity, social media, Onlyfans account etc. as soon as you do so much as throw a milkshake. He could never have used "Racey McRacistface" - to do this he was always going to have to be him. He just didn't cover his tracks as a jobbing actor nearly well enough.
I am really struggling to get to grips with your version of this conspiracy theory.
Are you suggesting that he used his own name deliberately as he was certain to be exposed as an actor?
What was the point of doing that?
You really are being quite terrifyingly dense. If this was set up as a hit piece to discredit Reform, deliberately conceived as a media scandal, HOW COULD HE POSSIBLY HAVE USED A FALSE NAME?
Why would he want to create a furore by being exposed as an actor?
Yup. I think in time it'll settle back to a 2-3 point deficit. But the damage is done.
We’re always told debates don’t really decide elections. This one might
Biden’s performance makes you realise that Sunak isn’t so bad.
Biden v Trump 2024 must be the lowest grade election - in terms of candidate quality - in the entire western world since the widespread advent of democracy
It really is that bad. A convicted felon and quasi lunatic versus a creepy liar and dementia patient
Dunno. Johnson vs Corbyn runs them into a very close second.
Chirac vs Le Pen 2002 was probably worse than Johnson/Corbyn, not least because the winner was assured of 7 years. The Italians have thrown up some dreadful choices over the decades, including many elections of the Corrupt vs the Commies. But really, if you're going to spread the net that widely, it's hard not to invoke Godwin for the number one.
It’s bloody confusing these days now we have both Godwin and Goodwin in the “are these people like Hitler” academic discussion space.
It’s Goodwin. His polls are designed to generate headlines and nothing more. Note that this poll shows LAB +5. No other poll shows anything like that. The guy is a clown.
But actually this poll is much more in line with other polls - it’s less of an outlier
Also I don’t buy that Goodwin is a “clown”. He’s not making shit up or lying. I’m sure he’s doing dedicated polling as best as he can - yes he clearly has a party position but his reputation also rests on his being reliable and truthful with stuff like this
An unknown bias creeping into his data? Perhaps. It happens. But actually clownish falsehoods? No
Moreover other polls are equally quirky. Some have reform down on 13% some on 21%. I wonder if the pollsters are having problems modelling such a weird and unique election
Well. We ain't got long to find out. Getting kinda bored with the inconsistent polling and speculation. Should imagine July 5th we'll have some real politics to talk about. But maybe that's hopecasting...
We are so far from the norm that not only is Baxter unbelievable, we have no idea whether MRPs are of any use and even polls seem questionable. We are outwith normal modelling. I’m not betting based on any of their results.
My theory on the racist Reform canvasser: yes, an actor. Yes, playing a part. A middle class fantasist with racist views who has a kink for extreme Alf Garnet cosplaying and who saw in the Reform campaign a chance to indulge his fantasy. Not a plant for Ch4 (they’re not that stupid), but not a bona fide Reform activist either.
That's what I think as well. His act was too much like the Pub Landlord to be real. It wasn't organised by Channel 4, obviously, but they were still taken in by it. At least imo.
Reform aren't racist It wasn't a real Reform activist Ok, there were several Reform activists saying racist and homophobic stuff but all parties have that --- you are here --- Sure the tape of Farage horsewhipping the small Black lad looked bad out of context but... Can't stop to chat I'm off to get fitted for my boots
Reform are not racist It wasn't a real Reform activist I have never suggested that nobody supporting or even working for Reform is racist - that would be utterly absurd I haven't remotely shifted in any of my opinions regarding Reform, either today, or at any time during the campaign.
MH17
As part of a very heated discussion in the immediate aftermath of the MH17 downing, I claimed based on a Russian media source that the plane could not have been shot down by Russia, and must have been hit by Ukraine. It soon transpired that I (and the piece of media I got my information from) was completely wrong - impossibly so. I got flamed thoroughly, and admitted without reservation that I'd been in the wrong.
Following that incident, a certain member, who appears to me to have very profound issues, has used this incident as a persistent refrain whenever I mention anything relating to Russia, or frankly any other issues. He pretends, or perhaps has forgotten, that I had acknowledged my mistake (as very few people here actually do), and have never repeated my claims. I choose not to remind him because I don't think it would do any good, and because I think his repeated attacks say far more about him than they do about me.
I'm catching you up out of courtesy - you're not terribly pleasant a great deal of the time, but I don't have you down as a thorough-going nutjob.
I've finally listened to Rishi Sunak's comments in reply to the RefUK slurs.
TBH I think it's the most straightforward and genuine thing I have seen from him all campaign.
Pity he chose to do it about the words of a paid actor doing 'secret filming work'. One wonders if he'll have to apologise.
If he was a "paid actor" playing the part of a rough racist in order to discredit Reform and Farage then why was he using his own name?
Surely if he was playing a part then he would assume a name that fit his character rather than use his own name.
How could he possibly have done that? A fake identity would have been rumbled in seconds!
Yes, RefUK's vetting procedures are famously watertiii... wait
Not before the event - he was allowed to go out canvassing without even being a party member. I mean after it. The papers know your identity, social media, Onlyfans account etc. as soon as you do so much as throw a milkshake. He could never have used "Racey McRacistface" - to do this he was always going to have to be him. He just didn't cover his tracks as a jobbing actor nearly well enough.
I am really struggling to get to grips with your version of this conspiracy theory.
Are you suggesting that he used his own name deliberately as he was certain to be exposed as an actor?
What was the point of doing that?
You really are being quite terrifyingly dense. If this was set up as a hit piece to discredit Reform, deliberately conceived as a media scandal, HOW COULD HE POSSIBLY HAVE USED A FALSE NAME?
Which is more likely? A complex hit piece to discredit Reform UK, or there are some racists campaigning for Reform UK?
What’s next, LuckyGuy? Donald Trump wouldn’t have slept with Stormy Daniels? Boris Johnson would never lie about having an affair?
Yes, watch out, I'll be suggesting that the President of the USA is senile next!! Ho Ho!
I absolutely acknowledge the presence of racists in Reform UK. It would be crazy to suggest otherwise - they're in all parties but undoubtedly in RefUK in greater numbers.
I am merely making the outlandish suggestion that an equity member specialising in doing cockney accents and secret filming, and having worked for Channel 4, is secretly filmed whilst canvassing for Reform for the first time ever, doing his cockney, by Channel 4, that doesn't quite pass the sniff test.
They were always going to get a couple of bigoted or gamey comments if they tried. Not 'a moment' though.
You’re quite right that there is certainly a suspicious air to it all. If this was any other party PB would be crying foul
But because it’s reform too many want to believe it. Yet again we face this issue. The emotions master the facts
Now, I dunno if this was a hit job. I’ve not had time to read. Maybe the guy is a legit racist in reform and C4 nailed it. Could be. But prima facie it looks odd
It's amazing how many 'intelligent' people on here are totally unself-aware of their confirmation bias. Admittedly Leon you do have a tendency to hyperbole (selling all your shares at the first sight of omicron) but you do generally acknowledge your own preferences.
Selling my shares at that precise moment - the onset of global covid - was one of the few sensible financial moves I’ve made on the back of my own correct extrapolations. Normally I’m rubbish at turning a good hunch into actual gain
Anyway it is midnight in ushant! Bon nuit, PB
Good night. Sleep tight. Don’t let the birdies bite. That applies to me as well.
It’s Goodwin. His polls are designed to generate headlines and nothing more. Note that this poll shows LAB +5. No other poll shows anything like that. The guy is a clown.
But actually this poll is much more in line with other polls - it’s less of an outlier
Also I don’t buy that Goodwin is a “clown”. He’s not making shit up or lying. I’m sure he’s doing dedicated polling as best as he can - yes he clearly has a party position but his reputation also rests on his being reliable and truthful with stuff like this
An unknown bias creeping into his data? Perhaps. It happens. But actually clownish falsehoods? No
Moreover other polls are equally quirky. Some have reform down on 13% some on 21%. I wonder if the pollsters are having problems modelling such a weird and unique election
You are “sure he is doing dedicated polling as best he can”? Really? I remind you that he is the only BPC pollster we are allowed to question on here. And with good reason.
But this poll isn’t especially outlying
Look at the variations in the numbers. His surveys are all over the shop.
@BarackObama 'Bad debate nights happen. Trust me, I know. But this election is still a choice between someone who has fought for ordinary folks his entire life and someone who only cares about himself. Between someone who tells the truth; who knows right from wrong and will give it to the American people straight — and someone who lies through his teeth for his own benefit. Last night didn’t change that, and it’s why so much is at stake in November' https://x.com/BarackObama/status/1806758633230709017
@BillClinton 'I’ll leave the debate rating to the pundits, but here’s what I know: facts and history matter. Joe Biden has given us 3 years of solid leadership, steadying us after the pandemic, creating a record number of new jobs, making real progress solving the climate crisis, and launching a successful effort in reducing inflation, all while pulling us out of the quagmire Donald Trump left us in. That’s what’s really at stake in November.' https://x.com/BillClinton/status/1806793781070729466
@HillaryClinton 'The choice in this election remains very simple.
It's a choice between someone who cares about you—your rights, your prospects, your future—versus someone who's only in it for himself.
Epping Forest could be a good candidate for highest Tory share at the election, for the simple reason that there isn't a Reform candidate standing there, and they probably would have lost 15-20% to them if they had been.
Stone, Great Wyrley and Penkridge also has no reform candidate, though UKIP are running for old times' sake. Would be interesting to know how many candidates they have put up across England.
My theory on the racist Reform canvasser: yes, an actor. Yes, playing a part. A middle class fantasist with racist views who has a kink for extreme Alf Garnet cosplaying and who saw in the Reform campaign a chance to indulge his fantasy. Not a plant for Ch4 (they’re not that stupid), but not a bona fide Reform activist either.
Take away the Alf Garnet thing, and that's Farage in a nutshell, isn't it?
My theory on the racist Reform canvasser: yes, an actor. Yes, playing a part. A middle class fantasist with racist views who has a kink for extreme Alf Garnet cosplaying and who saw in the Reform campaign a chance to indulge his fantasy. Not a plant for Ch4 (they’re not that stupid), but not a bona fide Reform activist either.
I agree, that's another explanation that fits the events. It is utterly bizarre though. And a hell of a coincidence that he was filmed when doing his peculiar acting practice. They must have been jizzing their pants when he started spouting off about p****s and the rest.
I've finally listened to Rishi Sunak's comments in reply to the RefUK slurs.
TBH I think it's the most straightforward and genuine thing I have seen from him all campaign.
Pity he chose to do it about the words of a paid actor doing 'secret filming work'. One wonders if he'll have to apologise.
If he was a "paid actor" playing the part of a rough racist in order to discredit Reform and Farage then why was he using his own name?
Surely if he was playing a part then he would assume a name that fit his character rather than use his own name.
How could he possibly have done that? A fake identity would have been rumbled in seconds!
Yes, RefUK's vetting procedures are famously watertiii... wait
Not before the event - he was allowed to go out canvassing without even being a party member. I mean after it. The papers know your identity, social media, Onlyfans account etc. as soon as you do so much as throw a milkshake. He could never have used "Racey McRacistface" - to do this he was always going to have to be him. He just didn't cover his tracks as a jobbing actor nearly well enough.
I am really struggling to get to grips with your version of this conspiracy theory.
Are you suggesting that he used his own name deliberately as he was certain to be exposed as an actor?
What was the point of doing that?
You really are being quite terrifyingly dense. If this was set up as a hit piece to discredit Reform, deliberately conceived as a media scandal, HOW COULD HE POSSIBLY HAVE USED A FALSE NAME?
Which is more likely? A complex hit piece to discredit Reform UK, or there are some racists campaigning for Reform UK?
What’s next, LuckyGuy? Donald Trump wouldn’t have slept with Stormy Daniels? Boris Johnson would never lie about having an affair?
Yes, watch out, I'll be suggesting that the President of the USA is senile next!! Ho Ho!
I absolutely acknowledge the presence of racists in Reform UK. It would be crazy to suggest otherwise - they're in all parties but undoubtedly in RefUK in greater numbers.
I am merely making the outlandish suggestion that an equity member specialising in doing cockney accents and secret filming, and having worked for Channel 4, is secretly filmed whilst canvassing for Reform for the first time ever, doing his cockney, by Channel 4, that doesn't quite pass the sniff test.
They were always going to get a couple of bigoted or gamey comments if they tried. Not 'a moment' though.
You’re quite right that there is certainly a suspicious air to it all. If this was any other party PB would be crying foul
But because it’s reform too many want to believe it. Yet again we face this issue. The emotions master the facts
Now, I dunno if this was a hit job. I’ve not had time to read. Maybe the guy is a legit racist in reform and C4 nailed it. Could be. But prima facie it looks odd
If it was just this one guy, maybe it would be worth considering that angle, but you could ignore this one guy and C4 still gathered a large quantity of damning material on Reform campaigners, including a bunch of people in the higher echelons who are long-time associates of Farage.
Very clever of Reform to try to reduce it all to this one individual they can try to discredit, but it's not the sort of trick you should fall for. Certainly not the sort of trick someone claiming to a high level of intelligence and great judgement should aspire to fall for.
Say Biden resigns and Harris becomes President. The Vice Presidency is vacant. Harris is allowed to nominate her replacement, but Congress blocks it (the GOP playing silly b*gets in the House).
Who presides over the electoral vote count in January if no Vice President is seated at that time?
Harris as she would remain VP as well as taking office as President until a replacement is chosen
I don't think that's right. I believe the responsibilities of VP (of which there are few but officiating over electoral vote count is one) would pass to Mike Johnson as Speaker.
However, I doubt they'd refuse to confirm any reasonable choice. The House GOP is increasingly extreme but there are enough who'd either confirm or abstain.
No they wouldn't, the VP would remain as elected by the Congress in 2020, the Constitution only says the Speaker fills the role of President if both the President and VP are dead or incapacitated. If the VP is still alive and kicking they retain the role, the Speaker doesn't fill it
I’m sorry to say you’re wrong on this. The Vice Presidency would become vacant immediately upon Harris assuming the Presidency.
To understand why, you need to look at Article II of the Constitution (which addresses the Electoral College).
Notwithstanding the changes to Electoral College ushered in under the 12th Amendment, Article II mandates that the President and the Vice President shall not be from the same state. Although the Article II in this instance does not relate specifically to Presidential Succession, it does create an obstacle given the role of the Vice President (and not the President) in the certification of the Electoral College votes.
Harris would not be permitted to hold both offices by virtue of being from a single state. Having sworn the Presidential Oath of Office and assumed said responsibilities, the Vice Presidency falls away (or sits in remainder) until such time that a successor is nominated and approved by both the House and the Senate.
The responsibilities and roles of the Vice President within the Legislature (as articulated in the Constitution) devolve to the President Pro Tempore of the Senate. The Vice President has no responsibilities and roles within the Executive (as articulated in the Constitution) so the point is moot.
So it would still be the Senate President Pro Tempore while Congress approved the new VP not the Speaker of the House who took the VP role
Epping Forest could be a good candidate for highest Tory share at the election, for the simple reason that there isn't a Reform candidate standing there, and they probably would have lost 15-20% to them if they had been.
@BarackObama 'Bad debate nights happen. Trust me, I know. But this election is still a choice between someone who has fought for ordinary folks his entire life and someone who only cares about himself. Between someone who tells the truth; who knows right from wrong and will give it to the American people straight — and someone who lies through his teeth for his own benefit. Last night didn’t change that, and it’s why so much is at stake in November' https://x.com/BarackObama/status/1806758633230709017
@BillClinton 'I’ll leave the debate rating to the pundits, but here’s what I know: facts and history matter. Joe Biden has given us 3 years of solid leadership, steadying us after the pandemic, creating a record number of new jobs, making real progress solving the climate crisis, and launching a successful effort in reducing inflation, all while pulling us out of the quagmire Donald Trump left us in. That’s what’s really at stake in November.' https://x.com/BillClinton/status/1806793781070729466
@HillaryClinton 'The choice in this election remains very simple.
It's a choice between someone who cares about you—your rights, your prospects, your future—versus someone who's only in it for himself.
Yup. I think in time it'll settle back to a 2-3 point deficit. But the damage is done.
We’re always told debates don’t really decide elections. This one might
Biden’s performance makes you realise that Sunak isn’t so bad.
Biden v Trump 2024 must be the lowest grade election - in terms of candidate quality - in the entire western world since the widespread advent of democracy
It really is that bad. A convicted felon and quasi lunatic versus a creepy liar and dementia patient
Dunno. Johnson vs Corbyn runs them into a very close second.
Chirac v Jean Marie le pen?
Even then the dubious chirac was significantly more impressive than either Trump or Biden
Chirac was also extremely sharp and very charismatic and dominated any room he was in, even if a bit dodgy. I used to know someone who attended an event in Paris for European conservatives he addressed who said he was the most charismatic person they had ever met.
Chirac also kept France out of the Iraq War of course
Say Biden resigns and Harris becomes President. The Vice Presidency is vacant. Harris is allowed to nominate her replacement, but Congress blocks it (the GOP playing silly b*gets in the House).
Who presides over the electoral vote count in January if no Vice President is seated at that time?
Harris as she would remain VP as well as taking office as President until a replacement is chosen
I don't think that's right. I believe the responsibilities of VP (of which there are few but officiating over electoral vote count is one) would pass to Mike Johnson as Speaker.
However, I doubt they'd refuse to confirm any reasonable choice. The House GOP is increasingly extreme but there are enough who'd either confirm or abstain.
No they wouldn't, the VP would remain as elected by the Congress in 2020, the Constitution only says the Speaker fills the role of President if both the President and VP are dead or incapacitated. If the VP is still alive and kicking they retain the role, the Speaker doesn't fill it
I’m sorry to say you’re wrong on this. The Vice Presidency would become vacant immediately upon Harris assuming the Presidency.
To understand why, you need to look at Article II of the Constitution (which addresses the Electoral College).
Notwithstanding the changes to Electoral College ushered in under the 12th Amendment, Article II mandates that the President and the Vice President shall not be from the same state. Although the Article II in this instance does not relate specifically to Presidential Succession, it does create an obstacle given the role of the Vice President (and not the President) in the certification of the Electoral College votes.
Harris would not be permitted to hold both offices by virtue of being from a single state. Having sworn the Presidential Oath of Office and assumed said responsibilities, the Vice Presidency falls away (or sits in remainder) until such time that a successor is nominated and approved by both the House and the Senate.
The responsibilities and roles of the Vice President within the Legislature (as articulated in the Constitution) devolve to the President Pro Tempore of the Senate. The Vice President has no responsibilities and roles within the Executive (as articulated in the Constitution) so the point is moot.
It's easy enough to consult history. Until the 25th amendment, passed only in the 1960s, Vice-Presidential vacancies were quite common, either because they moved up into the top job or because they themselves died or resigned. The vacancy was not filled until the next presidential election. This proved extremely timely given Watergate only a few years later, when the elected vice-president - Spiro Agnew - had already resigned over his tax affairs. Otherwise a Democrat - Carl Albert - would have become president after one of the biggest Republican presidential landslides in history.
I've finally listened to Rishi Sunak's comments in reply to the RefUK slurs.
TBH I think it's the most straightforward and genuine thing I have seen from him all campaign.
Pity he chose to do it about the words of a paid actor doing 'secret filming work'. One wonders if he'll have to apologise.
If he was a "paid actor" playing the part of a rough racist in order to discredit Reform and Farage then why was he using his own name?
Surely if he was playing a part then he would assume a name that fit his character rather than use his own name.
How could he possibly have done that? A fake identity would have been rumbled in seconds!
Yes, RefUK's vetting procedures are famously watertiii... wait
Not before the event - he was allowed to go out canvassing without even being a party member. I mean after it. The papers know your identity, social media, Onlyfans account etc. as soon as you do so much as throw a milkshake. He could never have used "Racey McRacistface" - to do this he was always going to have to be him. He just didn't cover his tracks as a jobbing actor nearly well enough.
I am really struggling to get to grips with your version of this conspiracy theory.
Are you suggesting that he used his own name deliberately as he was certain to be exposed as an actor?
What was the point of doing that?
You really are being quite terrifyingly dense. If this was set up as a hit piece to discredit Reform, deliberately conceived as a media scandal, HOW COULD HE POSSIBLY HAVE USED A FALSE NAME?
Which is more likely? A complex hit piece to discredit Reform UK, or there are some racists campaigning for Reform UK?
What’s next, LuckyGuy? Donald Trump wouldn’t have slept with Stormy Daniels? Boris Johnson would never lie about having an affair?
Yes, watch out, I'll be suggesting that the President of the USA is senile next!! Ho Ho!
I absolutely acknowledge the presence of racists in Reform UK. It would be crazy to suggest otherwise - they're in all parties but undoubtedly in RefUK in greater numbers.
I am merely making the outlandish suggestion that an equity member specialising in doing cockney accents and secret filming, and having worked for Channel 4, is secretly filmed whilst canvassing for Reform for the first time ever, doing his cockney, by Channel 4, that doesn't quite pass the sniff test.
They were always going to get a couple of bigoted or gamey comments if they tried. Not 'a moment' though.
You’re quite right that there is certainly a suspicious air to it all. If this was any other party PB would be crying foul
But because it’s reform too many want to believe it. Yet again we face this issue. The emotions master the facts
Now, I dunno if this was a hit job. I’ve not had time to read. Maybe the guy is a legit racist in reform and C4 nailed it. Could be. But prima facie it looks odd
If it was just this one guy, maybe it would be worth considering that angle, but you could ignore this one guy and C4 still gathered a large quantity of damning material on Reform campaigners, including a bunch of people in the higher echelons who are long-time associates of Farage.
Very clever of Reform to try to reduce it all to this one individual they can try to discredit, but it's not the sort of trick you should fall for. Certainly not the sort of trick someone claiming to a high level of intelligence and great judgement should aspire to fall for.
But it's not just Reform focusing on the one individual. Rishi Sunak chose to focus on this one individual too - he felt (rightly) that this was emotive, especially when linked to his kids. What's sauce for the goose is sauce for the gander.
It’s Goodwin. His polls are designed to generate headlines and nothing more. Note that this poll shows LAB +5. No other poll shows anything like that. The guy is a clown.
But actually this poll is much more in line with other polls - it’s less of an outlier
Also I don’t buy that Goodwin is a “clown”. He’s not making shit up or lying. I’m sure he’s doing dedicated polling as best as he can - yes he clearly has a party position but his reputation also rests on his being reliable and truthful with stuff like this
An unknown bias creeping into his data? Perhaps. It happens. But actually clownish falsehoods? No
Moreover other polls are equally quirky. Some have reform down on 13% some on 21%. I wonder if the pollsters are having problems modelling such a weird and unique election
You are “sure he is doing dedicated polling as best he can”? Really? I remind you that he is the only BPC pollster we are allowed to question on here. And with good reason.
But this poll isn’t especially outlying
Look at the variations in the numbers. His surveys are all over the shop.
As much variation as Dua Lipa’s wardrobe changes in this Glastonbury set? #downwivthekidz
TBF, in this he’s not wrong. There is a back and forth debate going on behind the scenes, I’ve little doubt.
Biden has improved his case with a competent appearance at the rally, but no one’s going to forget their initial reaction to the debate. And the polling fuels the argument.
If he continues to be determined to carry on, it’s hard to predict what then happens.
But did he really need to post 1857 times today to essentially make the same point?
Reform aren't racist It wasn't a real Reform activist Ok, there were several Reform activists saying racist and homophobic stuff but all parties have that --- you are here --- Sure the tape of Farage horsewhipping the small Black lad looked bad out of context but... Can't stop to chat I'm off to get fitted for my boots
Reform are not racist It wasn't a real Reform activist I have never suggested that nobody supporting or even working for Reform is racist - that would be utterly absurd I haven't remotely shifted in any of my opinions regarding Reform, either today, or at any time during the campaign.
MH17
As part of a very heated discussion in the immediate aftermath of the MH17 downing, I claimed based on a Russian media source that the plane could not have been shot down by Russia, and must have been hit by Ukraine. It soon transpired that I (and the piece of media I got my information from) was completely wrong - impossibly so. I got flamed thoroughly, and admitted without reservation that I'd been in the wrong.
Following that incident, a certain member, who appears to me to have very profound issues, has used this incident as a persistent refrain whenever I mention anything relating to Russia, or frankly any other issues. He pretends, or perhaps has forgotten, that I had acknowledged my mistake (as very few people here actually do), and have never repeated my claims. I choose not to remind him because I don't think it would do any good, and because I think his repeated attacks say far more about him than they do about me.
I'm catching you up out of courtesy - you're not terribly pleasant a great deal of the time, but I don't have you down as a thorough-going nutjob.
But it's the same pattern. You seem susceptible to picking up on and passing on maskirovka.
Not that I think I owe you an explanation for my views, but I haven't read a Russian media source since they closed RT.
@BarackObama 'Bad debate nights happen. Trust me, I know. But this election is still a choice between someone who has fought for ordinary folks his entire life and someone who only cares about himself. Between someone who tells the truth; who knows right from wrong and will give it to the American people straight — and someone who lies through his teeth for his own benefit. Last night didn’t change that, and it’s why so much is at stake in November' https://x.com/BarackObama/status/1806758633230709017
@BillClinton 'I’ll leave the debate rating to the pundits, but here’s what I know: facts and history matter. Joe Biden has given us 3 years of solid leadership, steadying us after the pandemic, creating a record number of new jobs, making real progress solving the climate crisis, and launching a successful effort in reducing inflation, all while pulling us out of the quagmire Donald Trump left us in. That’s what’s really at stake in November.' https://x.com/BillClinton/status/1806793781070729466
@HillaryClinton 'The choice in this election remains very simple.
It's a choice between someone who cares about you—your rights, your prospects, your future—versus someone who's only in it for himself.
Keep silent. Keep your peace at least over this weekend and see what the wider party thinks. FFS.
As they know Biden has proved he can beat Trump, other Democrats haven't (as Hillary knows only too well).
It will be a stage managed Dem convention I expect with Obama and Bill Clinton speaking on successive nights laying into Trump and backing Biden. It being after the GOP convention likely takes any poll bounce longer into September. Biden is also better now scripted than off the cuff, his speech at the NC rally today was fiery and passionate, far better than last night.
Reform aren't racist It wasn't a real Reform activist Ok, there were several Reform activists saying racist and homophobic stuff but all parties have that --- you are here --- Sure the tape of Farage horsewhipping the small Black lad looked bad out of context but... Can't stop to chat I'm off to get fitted for my boots
Reform are not racist It wasn't a real Reform activist I have never suggested that nobody supporting or even working for Reform is racist - that would be utterly absurd I haven't remotely shifted in any of my opinions regarding Reform, either today, or at any time during the campaign.
MH17
As part of a very heated discussion in the immediate aftermath of the MH17 downing, I claimed based on a Russian media source that the plane could not have been shot down by Russia, and must have been hit by Ukraine. It soon transpired that I (and the piece of media I got my information from) was completely wrong - impossibly so. I got flamed thoroughly, and admitted without reservation that I'd been in the wrong.
Following that incident, a certain member, who appears to me to have very profound issues, has used this incident as a persistent refrain whenever I mention anything relating to Russia, or frankly any other issues. He pretends, or perhaps has forgotten, that I had acknowledged my mistake (as very few people here actually do), and have never repeated my claims. I choose not to remind him because I don't think it would do any good, and because I think his repeated attacks say far more about him than they do about me.
I'm catching you up out of courtesy - you're not terribly pleasant a great deal of the time, but I don't have you down as a thorough-going nutjob.
Was it also you who believed in Ukrainian bioweapon labs? Or was that someone else?
@BarackObama 'Bad debate nights happen. Trust me, I know. But this election is still a choice between someone who has fought for ordinary folks his entire life and someone who only cares about himself. Between someone who tells the truth; who knows right from wrong and will give it to the American people straight — and someone who lies through his teeth for his own benefit. Last night didn’t change that, and it’s why so much is at stake in November' https://x.com/BarackObama/status/1806758633230709017
@BillClinton 'I’ll leave the debate rating to the pundits, but here’s what I know: facts and history matter. Joe Biden has given us 3 years of solid leadership, steadying us after the pandemic, creating a record number of new jobs, making real progress solving the climate crisis, and launching a successful effort in reducing inflation, all while pulling us out of the quagmire Donald Trump left us in. That’s what’s really at stake in November.' https://x.com/BillClinton/status/1806793781070729466
@HillaryClinton 'The choice in this election remains very simple.
It's a choice between someone who cares about you—your rights, your prospects, your future—versus someone who's only in it for himself.
Keep silent. Keep your peace at least over this weekend and see what the wider party thinks. FFS.
As they know Biden has proved he can beat Trump, other Democrats haven't (as Hillary knows only too well).
It will be a stage managed Dem convention I expect with Obama and Bill Clinton speaking on successive nights laying into Trump and backing Biden. It being after the GOP convention likely takes any poll bounce longer into September. Biden is also better now scripted than off the cuff, his speech at the NC rally today was fiery and passionate, far better than last night.
I know you have a soft spot for Trump, but his winning the Presidency would be really, really bad for the Conservative Party in Epping Forest.
@BarackObama 'Bad debate nights happen. Trust me, I know. But this election is still a choice between someone who has fought for ordinary folks his entire life and someone who only cares about himself. Between someone who tells the truth; who knows right from wrong and will give it to the American people straight — and someone who lies through his teeth for his own benefit. Last night didn’t change that, and it’s why so much is at stake in November' https://x.com/BarackObama/status/1806758633230709017
@BillClinton 'I’ll leave the debate rating to the pundits, but here’s what I know: facts and history matter. Joe Biden has given us 3 years of solid leadership, steadying us after the pandemic, creating a record number of new jobs, making real progress solving the climate crisis, and launching a successful effort in reducing inflation, all while pulling us out of the quagmire Donald Trump left us in. That’s what’s really at stake in November.' https://x.com/BillClinton/status/1806793781070729466
@HillaryClinton 'The choice in this election remains very simple.
It's a choice between someone who cares about you—your rights, your prospects, your future—versus someone who's only in it for himself.
Keep silent. Keep your peace at least over this weekend and see what the wider party thinks. FFS.
What matters is what they're saying to him privately.
They'd be saying exactly what they're saying now if they meant it - but also if they were looking to provide him with a gracious way out, where he can stand down of his own accord.
Now, it may well be that he won't take that opportunity, in which case the Democrats will need to decide whether they stick with him and lose, or try to force him out by withdrawing confidence and making his candidature unviable. But that option can be put off for a week or two, though not longer.
@BarackObama 'Bad debate nights happen. Trust me, I know. But this election is still a choice between someone who has fought for ordinary folks his entire life and someone who only cares about himself. Between someone who tells the truth; who knows right from wrong and will give it to the American people straight — and someone who lies through his teeth for his own benefit. Last night didn’t change that, and it’s why so much is at stake in November' https://x.com/BarackObama/status/1806758633230709017
@BillClinton 'I’ll leave the debate rating to the pundits, but here’s what I know: facts and history matter. Joe Biden has given us 3 years of solid leadership, steadying us after the pandemic, creating a record number of new jobs, making real progress solving the climate crisis, and launching a successful effort in reducing inflation, all while pulling us out of the quagmire Donald Trump left us in. That’s what’s really at stake in November.' https://x.com/BillClinton/status/1806793781070729466
@HillaryClinton 'The choice in this election remains very simple.
It's a choice between someone who cares about you—your rights, your prospects, your future—versus someone who's only in it for himself.
Keep silent. Keep your peace at least over this weekend and see what the wider party thinks. FFS.
As they know Biden has proved he can beat Trump, other Democrats haven't (as Hillary knows only too well).
It will be a stage managed Dem convention I expect with Obama and Bill Clinton speaking on successive nights laying into Trump and backing Biden. It being after the GOP convention likely takes any poll bounce longer into September. Biden is also better now scripted than off the cuff, his speech at the NC rally today was fiery and passionate, far better than last night.
None of this matters. These are good and decent people. They know he's not up to four more years.
Trump is supposed to be the biggest liar to ever run for president.
But surely this is becoming a bigger lie?
Biden is not fit to be president. There is no fucking way around this.
@BarackObama 'Bad debate nights happen. Trust me, I know. But this election is still a choice between someone who has fought for ordinary folks his entire life and someone who only cares about himself. Between someone who tells the truth; who knows right from wrong and will give it to the American people straight — and someone who lies through his teeth for his own benefit. Last night didn’t change that, and it’s why so much is at stake in November' https://x.com/BarackObama/status/1806758633230709017
@BillClinton 'I’ll leave the debate rating to the pundits, but here’s what I know: facts and history matter. Joe Biden has given us 3 years of solid leadership, steadying us after the pandemic, creating a record number of new jobs, making real progress solving the climate crisis, and launching a successful effort in reducing inflation, all while pulling us out of the quagmire Donald Trump left us in. That’s what’s really at stake in November.' https://x.com/BillClinton/status/1806793781070729466
@HillaryClinton 'The choice in this election remains very simple.
It's a choice between someone who cares about you—your rights, your prospects, your future—versus someone who's only in it for himself.
@BarackObama 'Bad debate nights happen. Trust me, I know. But this election is still a choice between someone who has fought for ordinary folks his entire life and someone who only cares about himself. Between someone who tells the truth; who knows right from wrong and will give it to the American people straight — and someone who lies through his teeth for his own benefit. Last night didn’t change that, and it’s why so much is at stake in November' https://x.com/BarackObama/status/1806758633230709017
@BillClinton 'I’ll leave the debate rating to the pundits, but here’s what I know: facts and history matter. Joe Biden has given us 3 years of solid leadership, steadying us after the pandemic, creating a record number of new jobs, making real progress solving the climate crisis, and launching a successful effort in reducing inflation, all while pulling us out of the quagmire Donald Trump left us in. That’s what’s really at stake in November.' https://x.com/BillClinton/status/1806793781070729466
@HillaryClinton 'The choice in this election remains very simple.
It's a choice between someone who cares about you—your rights, your prospects, your future—versus someone who's only in it for himself.
Keep silent. Keep your peace at least over this weekend and see what the wider party thinks. FFS.
What matters is what they're saying to him privately.
They'd be saying exactly what they're saying now if they meant it - but also if they were looking to provide him with a gracious way out, where he can stand down of his own accord.
Now, it may well be that he won't take that opportunity, in which case the Democrats will need to decide whether they stick with him and lose, or try to force him out by withdrawing confidence and making his candidature unviable. But that option can be put off for a week or two, though not longer.
Maybe Bill is the one person who can reach him?
Or maybe Michelle can speak to his wife?
The world is waiting. This is far too important to be left to drift.
Reform aren't racist It wasn't a real Reform activist Ok, there were several Reform activists saying racist and homophobic stuff but all parties have that --- you are here --- Sure the tape of Farage horsewhipping the small Black lad looked bad out of context but... Can't stop to chat I'm off to get fitted for my boots
Reform are not racist It wasn't a real Reform activist I have never suggested that nobody supporting or even working for Reform is racist - that would be utterly absurd I haven't remotely shifted in any of my opinions regarding Reform, either today, or at any time during the campaign.
MH17
As part of a very heated discussion in the immediate aftermath of the MH17 downing, I claimed based on a Russian media source that the plane could not have been shot down by Russia, and must have been hit by Ukraine. It soon transpired that I (and the piece of media I got my information from) was completely wrong - impossibly so. I got flamed thoroughly, and admitted without reservation that I'd been in the wrong.
Following that incident, a certain member, who appears to me to have very profound issues, has used this incident as a persistent refrain whenever I mention anything relating to Russia, or frankly any other issues. He pretends, or perhaps has forgotten, that I had acknowledged my mistake (as very few people here actually do), and have never repeated my claims. I choose not to remind him because I don't think it would do any good, and because I think his repeated attacks say far more about him than they do about me.
I'm catching you up out of courtesy - you're not terribly pleasant a great deal of the time, but I don't have you down as a thorough-going nutjob.
Was it also you who believed in Ukrainian bioweapon labs? Or was that someone else?
The acknowledged labs, doing research into acknowledged biological weapons, but that we aren't supposed to call bioweapon labs? Yes, that is absolutely me. I remember the good old days when we were still denying their presence completely - a more innocent time.
@BarackObama 'Bad debate nights happen. Trust me, I know. But this election is still a choice between someone who has fought for ordinary folks his entire life and someone who only cares about himself. Between someone who tells the truth; who knows right from wrong and will give it to the American people straight — and someone who lies through his teeth for his own benefit. Last night didn’t change that, and it’s why so much is at stake in November' https://x.com/BarackObama/status/1806758633230709017
@BillClinton 'I’ll leave the debate rating to the pundits, but here’s what I know: facts and history matter. Joe Biden has given us 3 years of solid leadership, steadying us after the pandemic, creating a record number of new jobs, making real progress solving the climate crisis, and launching a successful effort in reducing inflation, all while pulling us out of the quagmire Donald Trump left us in. That’s what’s really at stake in November.' https://x.com/BillClinton/status/1806793781070729466
@HillaryClinton 'The choice in this election remains very simple.
It's a choice between someone who cares about you—your rights, your prospects, your future—versus someone who's only in it for himself.
Keep silent. Keep your peace at least over this weekend and see what the wider party thinks. FFS.
As they know Biden has proved he can beat Trump, other Democrats haven't (as Hillary knows only too well).
It will be a stage managed Dem convention I expect with Obama and Bill Clinton speaking on successive nights laying into Trump and backing Biden. It being after the GOP convention likely takes any poll bounce longer into September. Biden is also better now scripted than off the cuff, his speech at the NC rally today was fiery and passionate, far better than last night.
None of this matters. These are good and decent people. They know he's not up to four more years.
Trump is supposed to be the biggest liar to ever run for president.
But surely this is becoming a bigger lie?
Biden is not fit to be president. There is no fucking way around this.
All the rest is malarky as he would say.
If they do force him to step down, it opens up the question of who's really been running the government for the last couple of years. Lots of people have been complicit in covering up for Biden.
Reform aren't racist It wasn't a real Reform activist Ok, there were several Reform activists saying racist and homophobic stuff but all parties have that --- you are here --- Sure the tape of Farage horsewhipping the small Black lad looked bad out of context but... Can't stop to chat I'm off to get fitted for my boots
Reform are not racist It wasn't a real Reform activist I have never suggested that nobody supporting or even working for Reform is racist - that would be utterly absurd I haven't remotely shifted in any of my opinions regarding Reform, either today, or at any time during the campaign.
MH17
As part of a very heated discussion in the immediate aftermath of the MH17 downing, I claimed based on a Russian media source that the plane could not have been shot down by Russia, and must have been hit by Ukraine. It soon transpired that I (and the piece of media I got my information from) was completely wrong - impossibly so. I got flamed thoroughly, and admitted without reservation that I'd been in the wrong.
Following that incident, a certain member, who appears to me to have very profound issues, has used this incident as a persistent refrain whenever I mention anything relating to Russia, or frankly any other issues. He pretends, or perhaps has forgotten, that I had acknowledged my mistake (as very few people here actually do), and have never repeated my claims. I choose not to remind him because I don't think it would do any good, and because I think his repeated attacks say far more about him than they do about me.
I'm catching you up out of courtesy - you're not terribly pleasant a great deal of the time, but I don't have you down as a thorough-going nutjob.
Was it also you who believed in Ukrainian bioweapon labs? Or was that someone else?
The acknowledged labs, doing research into acknowledged biological weapons, but that we aren't supposed to call bioweapon labs? Yes, that is absolutely me. I remember the good old days when we were still denying their presence completely - a more innocent time.
Ah, yes. So, your MH17 mistake wasn’t a one-off. You will swallow any nonsense, then.
South West Norfolk: Liz Truss 6/5 Richmond: Rishi Sunak 4/9 Fareham and Waterlooville: Suella Braverman 1/2 North West Essex: Kemi Badenoch 1/9 Witham: Priti Patel 1/6 Godalming: Jeremy Hunt 10/3 Tonbridge: Tom Tugendhat 1/5 Portsmouth North: Penny Mordaunt 7/4 Louth and Horncastle: Victoria Atkins 1/3 Newark: Robert Jenrick 6/4 Melksham and Devizes: Danny Kruger 1/2 Hertsmere: Oliver Dowden 2/5
Comments
https://x.com/leftiestats/status/1806764507198349379?s=46
Post Office - Telegraphs
There is a back and forth debate going on behind the scenes, I’ve little doubt.
Biden has improved his case with a competent appearance at the rally, but no one’s going to forget their initial reaction to the debate.
And the polling fuels the argument.
If he continues to be determined to carry on, it’s hard to predict what then happens.
Ffs hook him off stage
Reform activist has bizarre racist meltdown about p****s in a Channel 4 sting operation
It turns out said acivist had wandered in for the first time that same day, wasn't known to anyone and wasn't a party member
It also turns out said activist is a paid actor, specialising in 'secret filming' who whilst being well-spoken himself, boasts a good line in 'rough talk' that he chose to take for a test drive during his speech
You decide what you think - it's not for me to hypothesise.
As for the other people who were filmed, I haven't seen it but I'd guess they're just genuine idiot racists. There are plenty in Reform. But the problem for the media and the main parties is that the showpiece 'Gotcha' that was going to get the voting public in the feels, turns out to be an odd confection. Nobody will remember the other stuff because it was just the hors d'oeuvres.
It really is that bad. A convicted felon and quasi lunatic versus a creepy liar and dementia patient
What’s next, LuckyGuy? Donald Trump wouldn’t have slept with Stormy Daniels? Boris Johnson would never lie about having an affair?
Exclusive: Ofwat to investigate circumstances around payment of dividend to intermediate parent company
https://www.theguardian.com/business/article/2024/jun/28/thames-water-board-150m-dividend-payout-funding-u-turn
I absolutely acknowledge the presence of racists in Reform UK. It would be crazy to suggest otherwise - they're in all parties but undoubtedly in RefUK in greater numbers.
I am merely making the outlandish suggestion that an equity member specialising in doing cockney accents and secret filming, and having worked for Channel 4, is secretly filmed whilst canvassing for Reform for the first time ever, doing his cockney, by Channel 4, that doesn't quite pass the sniff test.
They were always going to get a couple of bigoted or gamey comments if they tried. Not 'a moment' though.
After Hindenburg snuffed it, Hitler became both Chancellor and President and invented the title of Reich Leader (Fuhrer).
Also I don’t buy that Goodwin is a “clown”. He’s not making shit up or lying. I’m sure he’s doing dedicated polling as best as he can - yes he clearly has a party position but his reputation also rests on his being reliable and truthful with stuff like this
An unknown bias creeping into his data? Perhaps. It happens. But actually clownish falsehoods? No
Moreover other polls are equally quirky. Some have reform down on 13% some on 21%. I wonder if the pollsters are having problems modelling such a weird and unique election
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cpwdlg079z2o
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c8vdpvqe24jo
But because it’s reform too many want to believe it. Yet again we face this issue. The emotions master the facts
Now, I dunno if this was a hit job. I’ve not had time to read. Maybe the guy is a legit racist in reform and C4 nailed it. Could be. But prima facie it looks odd
It wasn't a real Reform activist
I have never suggested that nobody supporting or even working for Reform is racist - that would be utterly absurd
I haven't remotely shifted in any of my opinions regarding Reform, either today, or at any time during the campaign.
Getting kinda bored with the inconsistent polling and speculation.
Should imagine July 5th we'll have some real politics to talk about.
But maybe that's hopecasting...
Can't think who this reminded me of.
* Katja Hoyer's excellent 'Blood and iron'
Even then the dubious chirac was significantly more impressive than either Trump or Biden
Anyway it is midnight in ushant! Bon nuit, PB
'Bad debate nights happen. Trust me, I know. But this election is still a choice between someone who has fought for ordinary folks his entire life and someone who only cares about himself. Between someone who tells the truth; who knows right from wrong and will give it to the American people straight — and someone who lies through his teeth for his own benefit. Last night didn’t change that, and it’s why so much is at stake in November'
https://x.com/BarackObama/status/1806758633230709017
One of the jokes about Zaphod Beeblebrox was that Galactic President was essentially a MacGuffin. It was a non-job, because anyone who actually wanted to be President of the Galaxy was, by definition, unfit for the role. It's the same argument for a constitutional monarchy, or a bicycling presidency. The role is so absurd that nobody rational can take it seriously.
Being President of the United States is now much the same. Made worse by the stupid number of hoops and degrees of grovelling you have to do to get anywhere near becoming a realsitic candidate. Finding someone with enough quality and sanity to want to take the role is like finding a needle in a haystack, even in a country of however many hundred million people. So the Democrats have to keep running with a genial old codger who really ought to be allowed to retire and the Republicans have been taken over by a complete psychopath. In both cases, there isn't anyone obviously better.
(It's a similar issue on this smaller island. An awful lot of our recent PMs have been beaten by the job pretty quickly. Cameron managed a few good years, Blair looked on top of things for a decent while, Major did for a bit, Thatcher for rather longer. It's not a great success rate, is it?)
To understand why, you need to look at Article II of the Constitution (which addresses the Electoral College).
Notwithstanding the changes to Electoral College ushered in under the 12th Amendment, Article II mandates that the President and the Vice President shall not be from the same state. Although the Article II in this instance does not relate specifically to Presidential Succession, it does create an obstacle given the role of the Vice President (and not the President) in the certification of the Electoral College votes.
Harris would not be permitted to hold both offices by virtue of being from a single state. Having sworn the Presidential Oath of Office and assumed said responsibilities, the Vice Presidency falls away (or sits in remainder) until such time that a successor is nominated and approved by both the House and the Senate.
The responsibilities and roles of the Vice President within the Legislature (as articulated in the Constitution) devolve to the President Pro Tempore of the Senate. The Vice President has no responsibilities and roles within the Executive (as articulated in the Constitution) so the point is moot.
What would be the point of this conspiracy?
To Serve His Country, President Biden Should Leave the Race
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/opinion/biden-election-debate-trump.html
Biden sees grim reaper during debate.
But yes they are still right
Following that incident, a certain member, who appears to me to have very profound issues, has used this incident as a persistent refrain whenever I mention anything relating to Russia, or frankly any other issues. He pretends, or perhaps has forgotten, that I had acknowledged my mistake (as very few people here actually do), and have never repeated my claims. I choose not to remind him because I don't think it would do any good, and because I think his repeated attacks say far more about him than they do about me.
I'm catching you up out of courtesy - you're not terribly pleasant a great deal of the time, but I don't have you down as a thorough-going nutjob.
'I’ll leave the debate rating to the pundits, but here’s what I know: facts and history matter. Joe Biden has given us 3 years of solid leadership, steadying us after the pandemic, creating a record number of new jobs, making real progress solving the climate crisis, and launching a successful effort in reducing inflation, all while pulling us out of the quagmire Donald Trump left us in. That’s what’s really at stake in November.'
https://x.com/BillClinton/status/1806793781070729466
@HillaryClinton
'The choice in this election remains very simple.
It's a choice between someone who cares about you—your rights, your prospects, your future—versus someone who's only in it for himself.
I'll be voting Biden.'
https://x.com/HillaryClinton/status/1806686107632877647
Very clever of Reform to try to reduce it all to this one individual they can try to discredit, but it's not the sort of trick you should fall for. Certainly not the sort of trick someone claiming to a high level of intelligence and great judgement should aspire to fall for.
Utter fools.
Why the hell are they doing this?
Keep silent. Keep your peace at least over this weekend and see what the wider party thinks. FFS.
Chirac also kept France out of the Iraq War of course
I agree Biden must go to save humanity.
It will be a stage managed Dem convention I expect with Obama and Bill Clinton speaking on successive nights laying into Trump and backing Biden. It being after the GOP convention likely takes any poll bounce longer into September. Biden is also better now scripted than off the cuff, his speech at the NC rally today was fiery and passionate, far better than last night.
I'm totally past it. As we saw last night. But at least I'm not a liar.
Yeh. That'll bring the swing voters of Nevada back home to Dems.
They'd be saying exactly what they're saying now if they meant it - but also if they were looking to provide him with a gracious way out, where he can stand down of his own accord.
Now, it may well be that he won't take that opportunity, in which case the Democrats will need to decide whether they stick with him and lose, or try to force him out by withdrawing confidence and making his candidature unviable. But that option can be put off for a week or two, though not longer.
Trump is supposed to be the biggest liar to ever run for president.
But surely this is becoming a bigger lie?
Biden is not fit to be president. There is no fucking way around this.
All the rest is malarky as he would say.
Or maybe Michelle can speak to his wife?
The world is waiting. This is far too important to be left to drift.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukraine_bioweapons_conspiracy_theory for anyone not up to date on their Putinist or Fox News conspiracies.
South West Norfolk: Liz Truss 6/5
Richmond: Rishi Sunak 4/9
Fareham and Waterlooville: Suella Braverman 1/2
North West Essex: Kemi Badenoch 1/9
Witham: Priti Patel 1/6
Godalming: Jeremy Hunt 10/3
Tonbridge: Tom Tugendhat 1/5
Portsmouth North: Penny Mordaunt 7/4
Louth and Horncastle: Victoria Atkins 1/3
Newark: Robert Jenrick 6/4
Melksham and Devizes: Danny Kruger 1/2
Hertsmere: Oliver Dowden 2/5