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Northern Ireland [Westminster] Constituencies : Part Two (Key Seats) – politicalbetting.com

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  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,916
    Farooq said:

    I almost single-handedly destroyed the British National party claims Farage.

    Yes mate. I single-handedly destroyed a lamb korma last night. It's now part of me. Every time I burp the room smells of it.

    I hear u-know-who used to stomp around Munich in the 20s boasting about single handedly destroying the antisemitic, nationalist German Workers Party.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,609
    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    As predicted. The Dems will fall into line. Biden stays. So all this has done is massively damage him - even as he stays the candidate

    Helplessly bad. But it’s kinda what they deserve after all their lies for two years - “he’s always stammered”, “he’s amazing in private”, “he’s sharper than ever and wears adult diapers for fun”

    Nah. It’s not even 10am the morning after. Biden won’t be running, they just need the last bit of the fix to overlook Harris too before the coup de grace.
    That’s what I thought a few hours ago. But after contemplating - and seeing the first signs of wilful self-delusion “he wasn’t that bad really”, “ok he couldn’t form any words for an hour on live TV but he’s got a cold” I am fairly sure they will rationalise themselves to keeping him

    If it was EASY to replace him then Yes. He’d be gone tonight. But he apparently wants to stay and so does his wife and all the replacements are problematic

    However you may be right. Confronted with the horror of a likely Trump victory they may be galvanised

    Its compelling in a macabre way
    It's too early to know.

    A lot of people in the party have to do a lot of talking with each other.

    Maybe we will have a clearer idea by end of the weekend?
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708

    Roger said:

    rkrkrk said:

    For those panicking about Biden (and I regret to say I'm joining that camp)... I think the next President market offers some reasonable odds.

    For instance if you think Biden may choose to stand down (or be forced to)... you can get 26/1 on Kamala Harris winning. Or 600/1 on Buttigieg.

    Is there a mechanism for someone other than Kamala Harris to take over?
    Here’s an issue with the pathways

    A) Keep Biden/Harris - bad for the reasons outlined

    B) Keep Biden as President to see out his term, but the 2024 ticket is Harris/new VP - Easy attack line for Trump “the Democrats are being irresponsible, leaving us with a lame duck President and making our country unsafe!”

    C) Elevate Harris now, choose new VP - Harris seen as a bad candidate. New VP might not get confirmed by House pre election. Trump can say “no VP, our country is exposed!”

    D) Ditch both Biden and Harris on the ticket, but keep them in power. Black female voters will see Harris as passed over, may annoy them a lot. Biden/Harris seen as lame ducks for Trump to attack. Hard to pick suitable new pair.

    E) Ditch Biden now, elevate Harris, but Harris not on ticket. Same problem as above, unless you can convince Michelle Obama and you think that’s a good strategy.

    It’s very very difficult. I sympathise with them not sorting this out sooner. Personally I think you either try for Michelle, or you go all in on Kamala. Sticking with Joe at this point feels very very dicey.
    On C I don't think the VP vacancy thing is a problem, it would clearly be the GOP's fault and the solution would be the election.

    The problem is simply, would Kamala Harris win? The polling says she'd lose. That's not necessarily predictive, but it's the only data we've got.

    In any case this isn't ultimately up to The Democrats, it's up to Joe Biden.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,922
    sarissa said:

    Farooq said:

    Up the sherry drinkers!



    NEW: A poll has been released showing the UK’s voting intention by alcoholic drink preference

    https://x.com/politlcsuk/status/1806672615769075805?s=46&t=eiaG-Nju8t7zgfE3oCmAHA

    I'm a white wine drinker. I'm also known to be a filthy centrist. Judging from that graph, I've found my people.
    Best SNP score is for shandy drinkers? I would have thought they would be on hard stuff by now.
    It’s because of our lower drink drive limits. Also Scottish “Best” is 3.2%, so probably counts as shandy!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,679
    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Saw my first Tory posters today. Three of them. All on the railings of the town Conservative Club balcony.

    They also had a union flag which for some reason was flying at half mast.

    The Conservative Club in South Croydon hadn't even bothered putting up a Philp board when I drove past the other day
    Most patrons of Conservative Clubs are elderly alcoholics who start their day’s drinking before lunchtime and are most unlikely to make it to the polling station at all. Think, Leon, in a decade or so’s time.
    Cheapest beer and best snooker and karaoke in town Con Clubs, if the Tories want to revive in opposition they could start rebuilding from there
    Except a lot of younger people simply don't drink nowadays - it's just not the sales pitch it used to be...

    It is the middle aged and pensioners Tories need to rebuild from, young people never vote Tory anyway
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,569
    Pulpstar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Up the sherry drinkers!



    NEW: A poll has been released showing the UK’s voting intention by alcoholic drink preference

    https://x.com/politlcsuk/status/1806672615769075805?s=46&t=eiaG-Nju8t7zgfE3oCmAHA

    That is a fascinating poll (really).

    The two best drinking demographics for Reform are Prosecco and shandy.

    Think about that for a second: an unholy alliance between people who think that lager is just not sweet enough, and people who like filthy foreign fizz.
    You're misreading it - it's not Prosecco, it's cider that's second.
    The prosecco section includes other sparkling wins too.

    Apart from Sherry and G and T doesn't look much more than MoE.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,007
    edited June 28
    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Saw my first Tory posters today. Three of them. All on the railings of the town Conservative Club balcony.

    They also had a union flag which for some reason was flying at half mast.

    The Conservative Club in South Croydon hadn't even bothered putting up a Philp board when I drove past the other day
    Most patrons of Conservative Clubs are elderly alcoholics who start their day’s drinking before lunchtime and are most unlikely to make it to the polling station at all. Think, Leon, in a decade or so’s time.
    Cheapest beer and best snooker and karaoke in town Con Clubs, if the Tories want to revive in opposition they could start rebuilding from there
    Except a lot of younger people simply don't drink nowadays - it's just not the sales pitch it used to be...

    My head canon says that as people socialise online more, they need alcohol less. The only time I drink is in social situations, but remove the social element and I just don't drink alcohol at all. I sometimes get paid in bottles of wine (long story) and I have to give them to plumbers etc just to get rid of them. The wine, not the plumbers.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,922
    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    As predicted. The Dems will fall into line. Biden stays. So all this has done is massively damage him - even as he stays the candidate

    Helplessly bad. But it’s kinda what they deserve after all their lies for two years - “he’s always stammered”, “he’s amazing in private”, “he’s sharper than ever and wears adult diapers for fun”

    Nah. It’s not even 10am the morning after. Biden won’t be running, they just need the last bit of the fix to overlook Harris too before the coup de grace.
    That’s what I thought a few hours ago. But after contemplating - and seeing the first signs of wilful self-delusion “he wasn’t that bad really”, “ok he couldn’t form any words for an hour on live TV but he’s got a cold” I am fairly sure they will rationalise themselves to keeping him

    If it was EASY to replace him then Yes. He’d be gone tonight. But he apparently wants to stay and so does his wife and all the replacements are problematic

    However you may be right. Confronted with the horror of a likely Trump victory they may be galvanised

    Its compelling in a macabre way
    Trump will win and destroy democracy in the USA and poor old Joe won’t even know.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,075

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    As predicted. The Dems will fall into line. Biden stays. So all this has done is massively damage him - even as he stays the candidate

    Helplessly bad. But it’s kinda what they deserve after all their lies for two years - “he’s always stammered”, “he’s amazing in private”, “he’s sharper than ever and wears adult diapers for fun”

    Nah. It’s not even 10am the morning after. Biden won’t be running, they just need the last bit of the fix to overlook Harris too before the coup de grace.
    That’s what I thought a few hours ago. But after contemplating - and seeing the first signs of wilful self-delusion “he wasn’t that bad really”, “ok he couldn’t form any words for an hour on live TV but he’s got a cold” I am fairly sure they will rationalise themselves to keeping him

    If it was EASY to replace him then Yes. He’d be gone tonight. But he apparently wants to stay and so does his wife and all the replacements are problematic

    However you may be right. Confronted with the horror of a likely Trump victory they may be galvanised

    Its compelling in a macabre way
    Trump will win and destroy democracy in the USA and poor old Joe won’t even know.
    Not so sure. I fear an assassination may be at hand.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,883

    sarissa said:

    Farooq said:

    Up the sherry drinkers!



    NEW: A poll has been released showing the UK’s voting intention by alcoholic drink preference

    https://x.com/politlcsuk/status/1806672615769075805?s=46&t=eiaG-Nju8t7zgfE3oCmAHA

    I'm a white wine drinker. I'm also known to be a filthy centrist. Judging from that graph, I've found my people.
    Best SNP score is for shandy drinkers? I would have thought they would be on hard stuff by now.
    It’s because of our lower drink drive limits. Also Scottish “Best” is 3.2%, so probably counts as shandy!
    What about Buckfast?
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,922

    sarissa said:

    Farooq said:

    Up the sherry drinkers!



    NEW: A poll has been released showing the UK’s voting intention by alcoholic drink preference

    https://x.com/politlcsuk/status/1806672615769075805?s=46&t=eiaG-Nju8t7zgfE3oCmAHA

    I'm a white wine drinker. I'm also known to be a filthy centrist. Judging from that graph, I've found my people.
    Best SNP score is for shandy drinkers? I would have thought they would be on hard stuff by now.
    It’s because of our lower drink drive limits. Also Scottish “Best” is 3.2%, so probably counts as shandy!
    What about Buckfast?
    Irrelevant. Under 16s don’t get a vote.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Saw my first Tory posters today. Three of them. All on the railings of the town Conservative Club balcony.

    They also had a union flag which for some reason was flying at half mast.

    The Conservative Club in South Croydon hadn't even bothered putting up a Philp board when I drove past the other day
    Most patrons of Conservative Clubs are elderly alcoholics who start their day’s drinking before lunchtime and are most unlikely to make it to the polling station at all. Think, Leon, in a decade or so’s time.
    Cheapest beer and best snooker and karaoke in town Con Clubs, if the Tories want to revive in opposition they could start rebuilding from there
    Except a lot of younger people simply don't drink nowadays - it's just not the sales pitch it used to be...

    As a young person I have yet to be convinced that holds true once you control for religion.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,039
    Cicero said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    As predicted. The Dems will fall into line. Biden stays. So all this has done is massively damage him - even as he stays the candidate

    Helplessly bad. But it’s kinda what they deserve after all their lies for two years - “he’s always stammered”, “he’s amazing in private”, “he’s sharper than ever and wears adult diapers for fun”

    Nah. It’s not even 10am the morning after. Biden won’t be running, they just need the last bit of the fix to overlook Harris too before the coup de grace.
    That’s what I thought a few hours ago. But after contemplating - and seeing the first signs of wilful self-delusion “he wasn’t that bad really”, “ok he couldn’t form any words for an hour on live TV but he’s got a cold” I am fairly sure they will rationalise themselves to keeping him

    If it was EASY to replace him then Yes. He’d be gone tonight. But he apparently wants to stay and so does his wife and all the replacements are problematic

    However you may be right. Confronted with the horror of a likely Trump victory they may be galvanised

    Its compelling in a macabre way
    Trump will win and destroy democracy in the USA and poor old Joe won’t even know.
    Not so sure. I fear an assassination may be at hand.
    Or two assassinations
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,931
    .

    mwadams said:

    FPT:

    Pro_Rate....live it was far worse than the highlights. It wasn't a person gets one answer a bit mixed up.

    I agree. If the clips packages are making it look "not too bad" for Biden, they are being very, very generous. It was painful to watch last night.

    If the Democrats don't get Biden to step aside and maximize any positive publicity they can extract from an Open Convention, the world will be in a very bad place next year.
    There's a risk that an open convention would turn into a repeat of 1968.
    With the liberal wing of the party in open revolt against the presumptive nominee over Vietnam ?
    That seems one of the less likely scenarios to me, but WDIK ?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,958
    edited June 28
    Sky news showing a visibly angry Rishi Sunak condemning and actually saying the racist slur against him by the Reform volunteer

    Apparently the police are now investigating whether an offence has been committed and the Sky report is not going to help Reform with highlighting their pro Putin, racist and misogynistic views

    Time for conservatives to wake up and vote for the party to defend it from these vile views and characters
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,039
    Actually, joking aside, I would not be surprised if America’s political impasse was resolved with violence. America is a very violent society. Lots of politicians have been shot over the decades

    It does arguably “solve” an insoluble problem.

    And you could argue either makes a good target for those so minded
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,958
    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Saw my first Tory posters today. Three of them. All on the railings of the town Conservative Club balcony.

    They also had a union flag which for some reason was flying at half mast.

    The Conservative Club in South Croydon hadn't even bothered putting up a Philp board when I drove past the other day
    Most patrons of Conservative Clubs are elderly alcoholics who start their day’s drinking before lunchtime and are most unlikely to make it to the polling station at all. Think, Leon, in a decade or so’s time.
    Cheapest beer and best snooker and karaoke in town Con Clubs, if the Tories want to revive in opposition they could start rebuilding from there
    Except a lot of younger people simply don't drink nowadays - it's just not the sales pitch it used to be...

    Certainly that seems to be true in my granddaughters university group
  • Nunu5Nunu5 Posts: 963

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    As predicted. The Dems will fall into line. Biden stays. So all this has done is massively damage him - even as he stays the candidate

    Helplessly bad. But it’s kinda what they deserve after all their lies for two years - “he’s always stammered”, “he’s amazing in private”, “he’s sharper than ever and wears adult diapers for fun”

    Nah. It’s not even 10am the morning after. Biden won’t be running, they just need the last bit of the fix to overlook Harris too before the coup de grace.
    That’s what I thought a few hours ago. But after contemplating - and seeing the first signs of wilful self-delusion “he wasn’t that bad really”, “ok he couldn’t form any words for an hour on live TV but he’s got a cold” I am fairly sure they will rationalise themselves to keeping him

    If it was EASY to replace him then Yes. He’d be gone tonight. But he apparently wants to stay and so does his wife and all the replacements are problematic

    However you may be right. Confronted with the horror of a likely Trump victory they may be galvanised

    Its compelling in a macabre way
    It's too early to know.

    A lot of people in the party have to do a lot of talking with each other.

    Maybe we will have a clearer idea by end of the weekend?
    They can't just change the ballots at this stage.......the red states won't allow it......
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,320
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Saw my first Tory posters today. Three of them. All on the railings of the town Conservative Club balcony.

    They also had a union flag which for some reason was flying at half mast.

    The Conservative Club in South Croydon hadn't even bothered putting up a Philp board when I drove past the other day
    Most patrons of Conservative Clubs are elderly alcoholics who start their day’s drinking before lunchtime and are most unlikely to make it to the polling station at all. Think, Leon, in a decade or so’s time.
    Cheapest beer and best snooker and karaoke in town Con Clubs, if the Tories want to revive in opposition they could start rebuilding from there
    Between the wars my Great Grandfather was a grandee of Llanelli Conservative Club. We're still waiting for the revival in your fortunes and the first Conservative MP. Mind you it was within 5,000 votes in 2019.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,309

    Sky news showing a visibly angry Rishi Sunak condemning and actually saying the racist slur against him by the Reform volunteer

    Apparently the police are now investigating whether an offence has been committed and the Sky report is not going to help Reform with their pro Putin, racist and misogynistic views

    Time for conservatives to wake up and vote for the party to defend it from these vile views and characters

    Or, as a radical alternative, they might consider voting for a Party that has not fed off or tried to cash in on that theme.

    That would actually give them quite a wide choice.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,967
    Roger said:

    rkrkrk said:

    For those panicking about Biden (and I regret to say I'm joining that camp)... I think the next President market offers some reasonable odds.

    For instance if you think Biden may choose to stand down (or be forced to)... you can get 26/1 on Kamala Harris winning. Or 600/1 on Buttigieg.

    Is there a mechanism for someone other than Kamala Harris to take over?
    If Biden pulls out, the Democratic convention can pick whoever they want as candidate... AIUI.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,723
    sarissa said:

    Farooq said:

    Up the sherry drinkers!



    NEW: A poll has been released showing the UK’s voting intention by alcoholic drink preference

    https://x.com/politlcsuk/status/1806672615769075805?s=46&t=eiaG-Nju8t7zgfE3oCmAHA

    I'm a white wine drinker. I'm also known to be a filthy centrist. Judging from that graph, I've found my people.
    Best SNP score is for shandy drinkers? I would have thought they would be on hard stuff by now.
    Well, I've just been drinking some low-alcohol cider with my lunch roll - can't bear coke or simialr soft drinks. And shandy is the nearest to that so I would probably have said yes.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,967
    Nigelb said:

    Roger said:

    rkrkrk said:

    For those panicking about Biden (and I regret to say I'm joining that camp)... I think the next President market offers some reasonable odds.

    For instance if you think Biden may choose to stand down (or be forced to)... you can get 26/1 on Kamala Harris winning. Or 600/1 on Buttigieg.

    Is there a mechanism for someone other than Kamala Harris to take over?
    The mechanism is a vote of delegates to the national convention. Which is in the middle of August.

    How you persuade several thousand individuals chosen largely on the basis of a record of loyalty to Joe Biden is something for which a known mechanism doesn't exit.
    Regardless of their loyalty, aren't most mandated to pick Biden? They're not free agents. The convention selects Biden unless Biden pulls out... I think.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,605
    I’m glad that Sunak is attacking Reform. It’s a bit late and he’s made horrendous mistakes in stoking the fire.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,582

    mwadams said:

    FPT:

    Pro_Rate....live it was far worse than the highlights. It wasn't a person gets one answer a bit mixed up.

    I agree. If the clips packages are making it look "not too bad" for Biden, they are being very, very generous. It was painful to watch last night.

    If the Democrats don't get Biden to step aside and maximize any positive publicity they can extract from an Open Convention, the world will be in a very bad place next year.
    There's a risk that an open convention would turn into a repeat of 1968.
    There's always a risk when you let things get to this state.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    Watching Kenya Grace on Woodsies.

    Soooooo good. Love her.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,723
    Farooq said:

    Sky news showing a visibly angry Rishi Sunak condemning and actually saying the racist slur against him by the Reform volunteer

    Apparently the police are now investigating whether an offence has been committed and the Sky report is not going to help Reform with their pro Putin, racist and misogynistic views

    Time for conservatives to wake up and vote for the party to defend it from these vile views and characters

    A telling last line from you there. It's the Conservatives who are the real victims, in your mind. Not people of colour.
    But also the Polis will find out once and for all whether this actor chap was a C4 plant.
  • mickydroymickydroy Posts: 316

    Sky news showing a visibly angry Rishi Sunak condemning and actually saying the racist slur against him by the Reform volunteer

    Apparently the police are now investigating whether an offence has been committed and the Sky report is not going to help Reform with their pro Putin, racist and misogynistic views

    Time for conservatives to wake up and vote for the party to defend it from these vile views and characters

    Unfortunately there are quite a lot of people, who will lapping up those vile comments, and I confidently expect Farage to win in Clacton, I have heard that Labour are putting in no effort there, but with the Torys present poll ratings it's hard to see them win, anyone who votes for Farage's merry band of racists, need to take a long hard look at themselves
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,037
    rkrkrk said:

    For those panicking about Biden (and I regret to say I'm joining that camp)... I think the next President market offers some reasonable odds.

    For instance if you think Biden may choose to stand down (or be forced to)... you can get 26/1 on Kamala Harris winning. Or 600/1 on Buttigieg.

    Harris is a terrible candidate, but a great bet.

    She's the incumbent VP. She's not senile.

    And it's not like Trump doesn't have his own issues.

    I would buy her into the high teens. (Indeed, I think she is far more likely to be the candidate than Michelle Obama or Gavin Newsom.)
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,958
    Farooq said:

    Sky news showing a visibly angry Rishi Sunak condemning and actually saying the racist slur against him by the Reform volunteer

    Apparently the police are now investigating whether an offence has been committed and the Sky report is not going to help Reform with their pro Putin, racist and misogynistic views

    Time for conservatives to wake up and vote for the party to defend it from these vile views and characters

    A telling last line from you there. It's the Conservatives who are the real victims, in your mind. Not people of colour.
    Your comment is despicable

    I condemn racism and always have, but the only way the conservative party has a chance of remaining s one nation party is to ensure Reform are soundly beaten at the ballot box
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,309
    Leon said:

    Cicero said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    As predicted. The Dems will fall into line. Biden stays. So all this has done is massively damage him - even as he stays the candidate

    Helplessly bad. But it’s kinda what they deserve after all their lies for two years - “he’s always stammered”, “he’s amazing in private”, “he’s sharper than ever and wears adult diapers for fun”

    Nah. It’s not even 10am the morning after. Biden won’t be running, they just need the last bit of the fix to overlook Harris too before the coup de grace.
    That’s what I thought a few hours ago. But after contemplating - and seeing the first signs of wilful self-delusion “he wasn’t that bad really”, “ok he couldn’t form any words for an hour on live TV but he’s got a cold” I am fairly sure they will rationalise themselves to keeping him

    If it was EASY to replace him then Yes. He’d be gone tonight. But he apparently wants to stay and so does his wife and all the replacements are problematic

    However you may be right. Confronted with the horror of a likely Trump victory they may be galvanised

    Its compelling in a macabre way
    Trump will win and destroy democracy in the USA and poor old Joe won’t even know.
    Not so sure. I fear an assassination may be at hand.
    Or two assassinations
    I wish that were funny, Leon, or implausible, and preferably both.

    But it's neither.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,039
    Very good brief analysis of why replacing Biden js so hard. Starts with the sheer lack of time. 40 days. Goes from there

    Also points to the dereliction of democracy that Joe Biden has clearly NOT been running the country for the last two years


    https://x.com/twobitidiot/status/1806609483558191168?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,737
    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    As predicted. The Dems will fall into line. Biden stays. So all this has done is massively damage him - even as he stays the candidate

    Helplessly bad. But it’s kinda what they deserve after all their lies for two years - “he’s always stammered”, “he’s amazing in private”, “he’s sharper than ever and wears adult diapers for fun”

    Nah. It’s not even 10am the morning after. Biden won’t be running, they just need the last bit of the fix to overlook Harris too before the coup de grace.
    That’s what I thought a few hours ago. But after contemplating - and seeing the first signs of wilful self-delusion “he wasn’t that bad really”, “ok he couldn’t form any words for an hour on live TV but he’s got a cold” I am fairly sure they will rationalise themselves to keeping him

    If it was EASY to replace him then Yes. He’d be gone tonight. But he apparently wants to stay and so does his wife and all the replacements are problematic

    However you may be right. Confronted with the horror of a likely Trump victory they may be galvanised

    Its compelling in a macabre way
    My x timeline is showing floods of apparently left leaning talking heads and podcasters saying out loud that Biden is done.

    I don’t know why people think it’s hard not to pick Harris. You simply have a vote at the convention where she doesn’t win. There. Done. If the identity politics crowd don’t like who’s picked, they can always vote for the open racist in Nov.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,401
    Leon said:

    Actually, joking aside, I would not be surprised if America’s political impasse was resolved with violence. America is a very violent society. Lots of politicians have been shot over the decades

    It does arguably “solve” an insoluble problem.

    And you could argue either makes a good target for those so minded

    What does it do to Trump’s chances if he actually in jail on election day?

    Would it scupper them or would he claim martyrdom?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,958
    edited June 28

    Sky news showing a visibly angry Rishi Sunak condemning and actually saying the racist slur against him by the Reform volunteer

    Apparently the police are now investigating whether an offence has been committed and the Sky report is not going to help Reform with their pro Putin, racist and misogynistic views

    Time for conservatives to wake up and vote for the party to defend it from these vile views and characters

    Or, as a radical alternative, they might consider voting for a Party that has not fed off or tried to cash in on that theme.

    That would actually give them quite a wide choice.
    The danger is Reform out polls the conservative party and then Farage becomes the voice of the opposition
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,807

    Roger said:

    rkrkrk said:

    For those panicking about Biden (and I regret to say I'm joining that camp)... I think the next President market offers some reasonable odds.

    For instance if you think Biden may choose to stand down (or be forced to)... you can get 26/1 on Kamala Harris winning. Or 600/1 on Buttigieg.

    Is there a mechanism for someone other than Kamala Harris to take over?
    Here’s an issue with the pathways

    A) Keep Biden/Harris - bad for the reasons outlined

    B) Keep Biden as President to see out his term, but the 2024 ticket is Harris/new VP - Easy attack line for Trump “the Democrats are being irresponsible, leaving us with a lame duck President and making our country unsafe!”

    C) Elevate Harris now, choose new VP - Harris seen as a bad candidate. New VP might not get confirmed by House pre election. Trump can say “no VP, our country is exposed!”

    D) Ditch both Biden and Harris on the ticket, but keep them in power. Black female voters will see Harris as passed over, may annoy them a lot. Biden/Harris seen as lame ducks for Trump to attack. Hard to pick suitable new pair.

    E) Ditch Biden now, elevate Harris, but Harris not on ticket. Same problem as above, unless you can convince Michelle Obama and you think that’s a good strategy.

    It’s very very difficult. I sympathise with them not sorting this out sooner. Personally I think you either try for Michelle, or you go all in on Kamala. Sticking with Joe at this point feels very very dicey.
    On C I don't think the VP vacancy thing is a problem, it would clearly be the GOP's fault and the solution would be the election.

    The problem is simply, would Kamala Harris win? The polling says she'd lose. That's not necessarily predictive, but it's the only data we've got.

    In any case this isn't ultimately up to The Democrats, it's up to Joe Biden.
    I think the danger the Democrats have now is that keeping Biden on the ticket looks irresponsible now (some would say it has for some time but that’s another matter).

    I think they owe it to the country to actually put someone with all their faculties forward, be that Harris or AN Other. Regardless of whether they can stop Trump or not.

    Biden will not stop Trump now. So they need to give someone else a go.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,967

    Roger said:

    rkrkrk said:

    For those panicking about Biden (and I regret to say I'm joining that camp)... I think the next President market offers some reasonable odds.

    For instance if you think Biden may choose to stand down (or be forced to)... you can get 26/1 on Kamala Harris winning. Or 600/1 on Buttigieg.

    Is there a mechanism for someone other than Kamala Harris to take over?
    Here’s an issue with the pathways

    A) Keep Biden/Harris - bad for the reasons outlined

    B) Keep Biden as President to see out his term, but the 2024 ticket is Harris/new VP - Easy attack line for Trump “the Democrats are being irresponsible, leaving us with a lame duck President and making our country unsafe!”

    C) Elevate Harris now, choose new VP - Harris seen as a bad candidate. New VP might not get confirmed by House pre election. Trump can say “no VP, our country is exposed!”

    D) Ditch both Biden and Harris on the ticket, but keep them in power. Black female voters will see Harris as passed over, may annoy them a lot. Biden/Harris seen as lame ducks for Trump to attack. Hard to pick suitable new pair.

    E) Ditch Biden now, elevate Harris, but Harris not on ticket. Same problem as above, unless you can convince Michelle Obama and you think that’s a good strategy.

    It’s very very difficult. I sympathise with them not sorting this out sooner. Personally I think you either try for Michelle, or you go all in on Kamala. Sticking with Joe at this point feels very very dicey.
    I agree with some of that. Trump will come up with an attack line whatever, so I wouldn't overly worry about that.

    Basically, Biden goes or he doesn't. If he doesn't, it's Harris or someone else. The exact pathway doesn't matter as much. If you're going with Harris, it makes sense to make her President a.s.a.p., because then she can go around looking presidential. The Republicans playing games over nominating a new VP looks bad for them, not the Dems.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    First, thanks yet again to The Green Machine for posting this analysis.

    Second, am confused by statement that, "Naomi Long [APNI] could be depending on the SF voters and transfers". The voters I get; but transfers? Thought that Westminster elections in NI were like rest of UK = FPTP?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,037
    As an aside, no one actually vote for Joe Biden. The cast majority of Democrat votes, whether in 2020 or 2024, will be cast against Donald Trump.

    Whether he is senile or not, he continues to not be Donald Trump.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,081
    Comparing the Nom to WH markets to get the implied chance of Biden beating Trump if he doesn't step down ... 30%.

    Don't know what people make of that. Hard to say, isn't it. It's a very tricky thing to assess.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,569

    Sky news showing a visibly angry Rishi Sunak condemning and actually saying the racist slur against him by the Reform volunteer

    Apparently the police are now investigating whether an offence has been committed and the Sky report is not going to help Reform with highlighting their pro Putin, racist and misogynistic views

    Time for conservatives to wake up and vote for the party to defend it from these vile views and characters

    It was quite noticeable the uptick in Reform polling when Sunak took over the Tory leadership.

    Not all of it policy led is my suspicion.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,039

    Leon said:

    Cicero said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    As predicted. The Dems will fall into line. Biden stays. So all this has done is massively damage him - even as he stays the candidate

    Helplessly bad. But it’s kinda what they deserve after all their lies for two years - “he’s always stammered”, “he’s amazing in private”, “he’s sharper than ever and wears adult diapers for fun”

    Nah. It’s not even 10am the morning after. Biden won’t be running, they just need the last bit of the fix to overlook Harris too before the coup de grace.
    That’s what I thought a few hours ago. But after contemplating - and seeing the first signs of wilful self-delusion “he wasn’t that bad really”, “ok he couldn’t form any words for an hour on live TV but he’s got a cold” I am fairly sure they will rationalise themselves to keeping him

    If it was EASY to replace him then Yes. He’d be gone tonight. But he apparently wants to stay and so does his wife and all the replacements are problematic

    However you may be right. Confronted with the horror of a likely Trump victory they may be galvanised

    Its compelling in a macabre way
    Trump will win and destroy democracy in the USA and poor old Joe won’t even know.
    Not so sure. I fear an assassination may be at hand.
    Or two assassinations
    I wish that were funny, Leon, or implausible, and preferably both.

    But it's neither.
    Yes, I’m absolutely serious. I can see it happening to either candidate for multiple reasons

    Clearly I pray I’m wrong but America has an awful lot of guns, a history of assassinations, and plenty of angry or bad or desperate people
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,037
    edited June 28
    Nunu5 said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    As predicted. The Dems will fall into line. Biden stays. So all this has done is massively damage him - even as he stays the candidate

    Helplessly bad. But it’s kinda what they deserve after all their lies for two years - “he’s always stammered”, “he’s amazing in private”, “he’s sharper than ever and wears adult diapers for fun”

    Nah. It’s not even 10am the morning after. Biden won’t be running, they just need the last bit of the fix to overlook Harris too before the coup de grace.
    That’s what I thought a few hours ago. But after contemplating - and seeing the first signs of wilful self-delusion “he wasn’t that bad really”, “ok he couldn’t form any words for an hour on live TV but he’s got a cold” I am fairly sure they will rationalise themselves to keeping him

    If it was EASY to replace him then Yes. He’d be gone tonight. But he apparently wants to stay and so does his wife and all the replacements are problematic

    However you may be right. Confronted with the horror of a likely Trump victory they may be galvanised

    Its compelling in a macabre way
    It's too early to know.

    A lot of people in the party have to do a lot of talking with each other.

    Maybe we will have a clearer idea by end of the weekend?
    They can't just change the ballots at this stage.......the red states won't allow it......
    Doesn't matter.

    Remember you don't elect the President, you elect electors. The Biden electors would just vote for AN Other in the Electoral College.

    And - btw - the ballot probably shouldn't be printed anyway until after the Convention, when someone officially becomes the candidate.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,638
    rcs1000 said:

    As an aside, no one actually vote for Joe Biden. The cast majority of Democrat votes, whether in 2020 or 2024, will be cast against Donald Trump.

    Whether he is senile or not, he continues to not be Donald Trump.

    Yes, but the problem is that Trump can now also be the not senile Joe Biden candidate. It's how he wins.

  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,967

    Sky news showing a visibly angry Rishi Sunak condemning and actually saying the racist slur against him by the Reform volunteer

    Apparently the police are now investigating whether an offence has been committed and the Sky report is not going to help Reform with their pro Putin, racist and misogynistic views

    Time for conservatives to wake up and vote for the party to defend it from these vile views and characters

    Or, as a radical alternative, they might consider voting for a Party that has not fed off or tried to cash in on that theme.

    That would actually give them quite a wide choice.
    The danger is Reform out polls the conservative party and then Farage becomes the voice of the opposition
    If Reform polls, say, 8% and the Tories 7%, then it's not a problem.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    Folks go onto iPlayer and get with the yoooof on the Woodsies Stage. Kenya Grace. So good.

    You wanna know where the real pulse is? Now’s your chance but be quick.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,807

    rcs1000 said:

    As an aside, no one actually vote for Joe Biden. The cast majority of Democrat votes, whether in 2020 or 2024, will be cast against Donald Trump.

    Whether he is senile or not, he continues to not be Donald Trump.

    Yes, but the problem is that Trump can now also be the not senile Joe Biden candidate. It's how he wins.

    Spot on.

    So the Democrats need another Not Trump candidate.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,497
    Brexit Britain could benefit from a flight to safety from the political chaos engulfing the US and EU.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,399

    Sky news showing a visibly angry Rishi Sunak condemning and actually saying the racist slur against him by the Reform volunteer

    Apparently the police are now investigating whether an offence has been committed and the Sky report is not going to help Reform with their pro Putin, racist and misogynistic views

    Time for conservatives to wake up and vote for the party to defend it from these vile views and characters

    Or, as a radical alternative, they might consider voting for a Party that has not fed off or tried to cash in on that theme.

    That would actually give them quite a wide choice.
    The danger is Reform out polls the conservative party and then Farage becomes the voice of the opposition
    Meaningless unless they actually beat them on seat numbers - which they won't even if they outpoll them.
  • theakestheakes Posts: 929
    If Biden died or was taken seriously ill in Hospital then irrespective of an individual state saying we cannot change the ballot, the fact is they would have to and the right wing Supreme Court would back that view.
    There will be probably be an Open convention and the way would be open for Gavin Newsome. If there is a capable and competent Democratic in the Southern states he/she would be a good alternative choice..
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,186

    Nigelb said:

    Roger said:

    rkrkrk said:

    For those panicking about Biden (and I regret to say I'm joining that camp)... I think the next President market offers some reasonable odds.

    For instance if you think Biden may choose to stand down (or be forced to)... you can get 26/1 on Kamala Harris winning. Or 600/1 on Buttigieg.

    Is there a mechanism for someone other than Kamala Harris to take over?
    The mechanism is a vote of delegates to the national convention. Which is in the middle of August.

    How you persuade several thousand individuals chosen largely on the basis of a record of loyalty to Joe Biden is something for which a known mechanism doesn't exit.
    Regardless of their loyalty, aren't most mandated to pick Biden? They're not free agents. The convention selects Biden unless Biden pulls out... I think.
    As I understand it the DNC could just change the rules. I don't think there's anything to stop them just choosing the Democrat candidate themselves.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,605

    Brexit Britain could benefit from a flight to safety from the political chaos engulfing the US and EU.

    Indeed. Let’s hope Starmer prevails.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,089
    rcs1000 said:

    Nunu5 said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    As predicted. The Dems will fall into line. Biden stays. So all this has done is massively damage him - even as he stays the candidate

    Helplessly bad. But it’s kinda what they deserve after all their lies for two years - “he’s always stammered”, “he’s amazing in private”, “he’s sharper than ever and wears adult diapers for fun”

    Nah. It’s not even 10am the morning after. Biden won’t be running, they just need the last bit of the fix to overlook Harris too before the coup de grace.
    That’s what I thought a few hours ago. But after contemplating - and seeing the first signs of wilful self-delusion “he wasn’t that bad really”, “ok he couldn’t form any words for an hour on live TV but he’s got a cold” I am fairly sure they will rationalise themselves to keeping him

    If it was EASY to replace him then Yes. He’d be gone tonight. But he apparently wants to stay and so does his wife and all the replacements are problematic

    However you may be right. Confronted with the horror of a likely Trump victory they may be galvanised

    Its compelling in a macabre way
    It's too early to know.

    A lot of people in the party have to do a lot of talking with each other.

    Maybe we will have a clearer idea by end of the weekend?
    They can't just change the ballots at this stage.......the red states won't allow it......
    Doesn't matter.

    Remember you don't elect the President, you elect electors. The Biden electors would just vote for AN Other in the Electoral College.

    And - btw - the ballot probably shouldn't be printed anyway until after the Convention, when someone officially becomes the candidate.
    Does that work in Cleveland ?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,039
    Heathener said:

    Folks go onto iPlayer and get with the yoooof on the Woodsies Stage. Kenya Grace. So good.

    You wanna know where the real pulse is? Now’s your chance but be quick.

    lol. Glasto hasn’t been the pulse of the country since about 1995. It’s a lot of wealthy middle aged people pretending to be young - like you

    And there is absolutely nothing wrong with that. I hope the sun shines and you all have a blast. But if you want to know what young Britain thinks I suggest TikTok over Shepton Mallett
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,464

    Sky news showing a visibly angry Rishi Sunak condemning and actually saying the racist slur against him by the Reform volunteer

    Apparently the police are now investigating whether an offence has been committed and the Sky report is not going to help Reform with their pro Putin, racist and misogynistic views

    Time for conservatives to wake up and vote for the party to defend it from these vile views and characters

    Or, as a radical alternative, they might consider voting for a Party that has not fed off or tried to cash in on that theme.

    That would actually give them quite a wide choice.
    The danger is Reform out polls the conservative party and then Farage becomes the voice of the opposition

    I believe he has had the most appearances of any politico on BBC QT in this century, quite frankly the airtime he is given is a disgrace. The media are fully entitled to choose who they interview but he seems to be able to summon media like flies to shXT, this is a party which has never won anything except about 6 council seats.... (BXP/UKIP are not the same). Quite frankly his command of the media is disproportionate and dangerous
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,089
    edited June 28
    kamski said:

    Nigelb said:

    Roger said:

    rkrkrk said:

    For those panicking about Biden (and I regret to say I'm joining that camp)... I think the next President market offers some reasonable odds.

    For instance if you think Biden may choose to stand down (or be forced to)... you can get 26/1 on Kamala Harris winning. Or 600/1 on Buttigieg.

    Is there a mechanism for someone other than Kamala Harris to take over?
    The mechanism is a vote of delegates to the national convention. Which is in the middle of August.

    How you persuade several thousand individuals chosen largely on the basis of a record of loyalty to Joe Biden is something for which a known mechanism doesn't exit.
    Regardless of their loyalty, aren't most mandated to pick Biden? They're not free agents. The convention selects Biden unless Biden pulls out... I think.
    As I understand it the DNC could just change the rules. I don't think there's anything to stop them just choosing the Democrat candidate themselves.
    Don't rule changes require a DNC floor vote ?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,399

    Up the sherry drinkers!



    NEW: A poll has been released showing the UK’s voting intention by alcoholic drink preference

    https://x.com/politlcsuk/status/1806672615769075805?s=46&t=eiaG-Nju8t7zgfE3oCmAHA

    Nice graphic. The danger being the obvious use of it would be to claim you have to be drunk to vote for Labour ;)
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,638
    Leon said:

    Heathener said:

    Folks go onto iPlayer and get with the yoooof on the Woodsies Stage. Kenya Grace. So good.

    You wanna know where the real pulse is? Now’s your chance but be quick.

    lol. Glasto hasn’t been the pulse of the country since about 1995. It’s a lot of wealthy middle aged people pretending to be young - like you

    And there is absolutely nothing wrong with that. I hope the sun shines and you all have a blast. But if you want to know what young Britain thinks I suggest TikTok over Shepton Mallett

    My 26 year old daughter is there with her mates. They've just had an absolute blast watching Squeeze.

  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,039
    That analysis I linked claims that the democrats have just 40 days to do this. A new candidate has to be on the Ohio ballot by August 4

    Is that true? I don’t know the mechanics of American electoral law - but if that is true I suggest this is probably impossible. There’s not enough time
  • theakestheakes Posts: 929
    Where does all this leave Kennedy?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,089
    Farooq said:

    Sky news showing a visibly angry Rishi Sunak condemning and actually saying the racist slur against him by the Reform volunteer

    Apparently the police are now investigating whether an offence has been committed and the Sky report is not going to help Reform with their pro Putin, racist and misogynistic views

    Time for conservatives to wake up and vote for the party to defend it from these vile views and characters

    Or, as a radical alternative, they might consider voting for a Party that has not fed off or tried to cash in on that theme.

    That would actually give them quite a wide choice.
    The danger is Reform out polls the conservative party and then Farage becomes the voice of the opposition
    Meaningless unless they actually beat them on seat numbers - which they won't even if they outpoll them.
    which they also won't do.

    If keeping Reform out was really someone's top priority, they wouldn't just blanket advocate voting Conservative. That's the best bet in some seats, but seats like Ashfield and Gt Yarmouth, probably not.
    Certainly not in Barnsley !
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,089
    theakes said:

    Where does all this leave Kennedy?

    Completely irrelevant as ever.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,605

    Sky news showing a visibly angry Rishi Sunak condemning and actually saying the racist slur against him by the Reform volunteer

    Apparently the police are now investigating whether an offence has been committed and the Sky report is not going to help Reform with highlighting their pro Putin, racist and misogynistic views

    Time for conservatives to wake up and vote for the party to defend it from these vile views and characters

    Sunak has never looked more authentic. That is genuine anger - and he is right to speak out as he has. However, this is also the bloke who has spent the last couple of years snuggling up to Reform voters and who was happy to take millions from Frank Hester. If he had taken a different path when he had the chance things may have turned out very differently for him.

    There’s another universe where Sunak took on the right, ended the culture wars, exposed the Rwanda scheme as the farce it is and returned to Cameron/May pragmatic conservative politics. I think there might have been conservative votes in an Thatcherite economic pragmatic approach to the EU and a return to the vote blue go green agenda.

    It’s tragic he didn’t go down that path.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,039

    Leon said:

    Heathener said:

    Folks go onto iPlayer and get with the yoooof on the Woodsies Stage. Kenya Grace. So good.

    You wanna know where the real pulse is? Now’s your chance but be quick.

    lol. Glasto hasn’t been the pulse of the country since about 1995. It’s a lot of wealthy middle aged people pretending to be young - like you

    And there is absolutely nothing wrong with that. I hope the sun shines and you all have a blast. But if you want to know what young Britain thinks I suggest TikTok over Shepton Mallett

    My 26 year old daughter is there with her mates. They've just had an absolute blast watching Squeeze.

    Enviable. Also squeeze are great - but that in itself says something about both glasto and modern pop music. They heyday of squeeze was 40 years ago

    I went to glasto in the 1980s and if they’d said “now we’ve got a band from the 1940s” everyone would have rioted in angry amazement

    A good sunny Glasto is a brilliant thing. I’ve done two of them. I’ve also done a really really rainy one which was ok because we took loads of drugs but we fled on day two (I had free press tickets so I didn’t care)
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,186
    Leon said:

    That analysis I linked claims that the democrats have just 40 days to do this. A new candidate has to be on the Ohio ballot by August 4

    Is that true? I don’t know the mechanics of American electoral law - but if that is true I suggest this is probably impossible. There’s not enough time

    Well Biden himself might not be on ballot in Ohio. Dems might have to just write Ohio off if it comes to that.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,399
    Farooq said:

    Sky news showing a visibly angry Rishi Sunak condemning and actually saying the racist slur against him by the Reform volunteer

    Apparently the police are now investigating whether an offence has been committed and the Sky report is not going to help Reform with their pro Putin, racist and misogynistic views

    Time for conservatives to wake up and vote for the party to defend it from these vile views and characters

    Or, as a radical alternative, they might consider voting for a Party that has not fed off or tried to cash in on that theme.

    That would actually give them quite a wide choice.
    The danger is Reform out polls the conservative party and then Farage becomes the voice of the opposition
    Meaningless unless they actually beat them on seat numbers - which they won't even if they outpoll them.
    which they also won't do.

    If keeping Reform out was really someone's top priority, they wouldn't just blanket advocate voting Conservative. That's the best bet in some seats, but seats like Ashfield and Gt Yarmouth, probably not.
    I suspect you are right but at the moment I am not sure. Certainly not enough to bet on it.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,723
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Heathener said:

    Folks go onto iPlayer and get with the yoooof on the Woodsies Stage. Kenya Grace. So good.

    You wanna know where the real pulse is? Now’s your chance but be quick.

    lol. Glasto hasn’t been the pulse of the country since about 1995. It’s a lot of wealthy middle aged people pretending to be young - like you

    And there is absolutely nothing wrong with that. I hope the sun shines and you all have a blast. But if you want to know what young Britain thinks I suggest TikTok over Shepton Mallett

    My 26 year old daughter is there with her mates. They've just had an absolute blast watching Squeeze.

    Enviable. Also squeeze are great - but that in itself says something about both glasto and modern pop music. They heyday of squeeze was 40 years ago

    I went to glasto in the 1980s and if they’d said “now we’ve got a band from the 1940s” everyone would have rioted in angry amazement

    A good sunny Glasto is a brilliant thing. I’ve done two of them. I’ve also done a really really rainy one which was ok because we took loads of drugs but we fled on day two (I had free press tickets so I didn’t care)
    Bit shite for the eels and frogs downstream, though.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,742
    Jonathan said:

    I’m glad that Sunak is attacking Reform. It’s a bit late and he’s made horrendous mistakes in stoking the fire.

    And continues to do so as far as the trans community is concerned.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,039
    edited June 28
    kamski said:

    Leon said:

    That analysis I linked claims that the democrats have just 40 days to do this. A new candidate has to be on the Ohio ballot by August 4

    Is that true? I don’t know the mechanics of American electoral law - but if that is true I suggest this is probably impossible. There’s not enough time

    Well Biden himself might not be on ballot in Ohio. Dems might have to just write Ohio off if it comes to that.
    So Ohio is not the clincher that guy claims? Can be Dems afford to write off a fairly big state like that?
  • UnpopularUnpopular Posts: 881
    Just had a thought, Hindenburg was 86 when he ran for re-election...
  • TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 1,405
    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Heathener said:

    Folks go onto iPlayer and get with the yoooof on the Woodsies Stage. Kenya Grace. So good.

    You wanna know where the real pulse is? Now’s your chance but be quick.

    lol. Glasto hasn’t been the pulse of the country since about 1995. It’s a lot of wealthy middle aged people pretending to be young - like you

    And there is absolutely nothing wrong with that. I hope the sun shines and you all have a blast. But if you want to know what young Britain thinks I suggest TikTok over Shepton Mallett

    My 26 year old daughter is there with her mates. They've just had an absolute blast watching Squeeze.

    Enviable. Also squeeze are great - but that in itself says something about both glasto and modern pop music. They heyday of squeeze was 40 years ago

    I went to glasto in the 1980s and if they’d said “now we’ve got a band from the 1940s” everyone would have rioted in angry amazement

    A good sunny Glasto is a brilliant thing. I’ve done two of them. I’ve also done a really really rainy one which was ok because we took loads of drugs but we fled on day two (I had free press tickets so I didn’t care)
    Bit shite for the eels and frogs downstream, though.
    Time of their lives I would have thought. It's not easy being green.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,081
    Leon said:

    Very good brief analysis of why replacing Biden js so hard. Starts with the sheer lack of time. 40 days. Goes from there

    Also points to the dereliction of democracy that Joe Biden has clearly NOT been running the country for the last two years

    https://x.com/twobitidiot/status/1806609483558191168?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    The last bit is odd. How does Biden being too old for a 2nd term mean that his 1st term has been directed by shadowy puppeteers?
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,289

    Up the sherry drinkers!



    NEW: A poll has been released showing the UK’s voting intention by alcoholic drink preference

    https://x.com/politlcsuk/status/1806672615769075805?s=46&t=eiaG-Nju8t7zgfE3oCmAHA

    Nice graphic. The danger being the obvious use of it would be to claim you have to be drunk to vote for Labour ;)
    You will certainly want to be drunk after this bunch of lefty lower middle management lightweights have been in power for about six months.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,679
    Leon said:

    kamski said:

    Leon said:

    That analysis I linked claims that the democrats have just 40 days to do this. A new candidate has to be on the Ohio ballot by August 4

    Is that true? I don’t know the mechanics of American electoral law - but if that is true I suggest this is probably impossible. There’s not enough time

    Well Biden himself might not be on ballot in Ohio. Dems might have to just write Ohio off if it comes to that.
    So Ohio is not the clincher that guy claims? Can be Dems afford to write off a fairly big state like that?
    Ohio is now solid Trump, it voted for Trump in 2016 and 2020
  • UnpopularUnpopular Posts: 881
    Leon said:

    kamski said:

    Leon said:

    That analysis I linked claims that the democrats have just 40 days to do this. A new candidate has to be on the Ohio ballot by August 4

    Is that true? I don’t know the mechanics of American electoral law - but if that is true I suggest this is probably impossible. There’s not enough time

    Well Biden himself might not be on ballot in Ohio. Dems might have to just write Ohio off if it comes to that.
    So Ohio is not the clincher that guy claims? Can be Dems afford to write off a fairly big state like that?
    Ohio hasn't gone Dem since Obama. It's already gone.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,497
    Jonathan said:

    Sky news showing a visibly angry Rishi Sunak condemning and actually saying the racist slur against him by the Reform volunteer

    Apparently the police are now investigating whether an offence has been committed and the Sky report is not going to help Reform with highlighting their pro Putin, racist and misogynistic views

    Time for conservatives to wake up and vote for the party to defend it from these vile views and characters

    Sunak has never looked more authentic. That is genuine anger - and he is right to speak out as he has. However, this is also the bloke who has spent the last couple of years snuggling up to Reform voters and who was happy to take millions from Frank Hester. If he had taken a different path when he had the chance things may have turned out very differently for him.

    There’s another universe where Sunak took on the right, ended the culture wars, exposed the Rwanda scheme as the farce it is and returned to Cameron/May pragmatic conservative politics. I think there might have been conservative votes in an Thatcherite economic pragmatic approach to the EU and a return to the vote blue go green agenda.

    It’s tragic he didn’t go down that path.
    How could Sunak have ended the culture war going on between people like JK Rowling and the Labour party?
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,186
    Pulpstar said:

    kamski said:

    Nigelb said:

    Roger said:

    rkrkrk said:

    For those panicking about Biden (and I regret to say I'm joining that camp)... I think the next President market offers some reasonable odds.

    For instance if you think Biden may choose to stand down (or be forced to)... you can get 26/1 on Kamala Harris winning. Or 600/1 on Buttigieg.

    Is there a mechanism for someone other than Kamala Harris to take over?
    The mechanism is a vote of delegates to the national convention. Which is in the middle of August.

    How you persuade several thousand individuals chosen largely on the basis of a record of loyalty to Joe Biden is something for which a known mechanism doesn't exit.
    Regardless of their loyalty, aren't most mandated to pick Biden? They're not free agents. The convention selects Biden unless Biden pulls out... I think.
    As I understand it the DNC could just change the rules. I don't think there's anything to stop them just choosing the Democrat candidate themselves.
    Don't rule changes require a DNC floor vote ?
    Not sure, but I'm talking about the Democratic National Committee. tbh I have no idea how they operate, was hoping someone might
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,484
    Leon said:

    Very good brief analysis of why replacing Biden js so hard. Starts with the sheer lack of time. 40 days. Goes from there

    Also points to the dereliction of democracy that Joe Biden has clearly NOT been running the country for the last two years


    https://x.com/twobitidiot/status/1806609483558191168?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    It's not as if a lot of people have been saying he should have been replaced quite a long time ago.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,679
    edited June 28
    theakes said:

    Where does all this leave Kennedy?

    Given Biden's dementia and if Trump is jailed in July, sitting pretty I imagine. An A++list Democrat name but with some of his policies solid MAGA.

    If the Democrats replace Biden with Newsom or Harris at their convention and Trump is jailed and the GOP establishment try and draft Haley or Romney or DeSantis to replace him at their convention too that would be the dream for Kennedy
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,922
    kamski said:

    Pulpstar said:

    kamski said:

    Nigelb said:

    Roger said:

    rkrkrk said:

    For those panicking about Biden (and I regret to say I'm joining that camp)... I think the next President market offers some reasonable odds.

    For instance if you think Biden may choose to stand down (or be forced to)... you can get 26/1 on Kamala Harris winning. Or 600/1 on Buttigieg.

    Is there a mechanism for someone other than Kamala Harris to take over?
    The mechanism is a vote of delegates to the national convention. Which is in the middle of August.

    How you persuade several thousand individuals chosen largely on the basis of a record of loyalty to Joe Biden is something for which a known mechanism doesn't exit.
    Regardless of their loyalty, aren't most mandated to pick Biden? They're not free agents. The convention selects Biden unless Biden pulls out... I think.
    As I understand it the DNC could just change the rules. I don't think there's anything to stop them just choosing the Democrat candidate themselves.
    Don't rule changes require a DNC floor vote ?
    Not sure, but I'm talking about the Democratic National Committee. tbh I have no idea how they operate, was hoping someone might
    “As I understand it”. Peak PB comment. ;)
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,389
    I don't think these attacks on Reform will work. The aim is to try and destroy them by revealing their 'true nature' but it just keeps getting shrugged off by Farage. So the attacks fail, and the by product is that the discourse is normalised. It feels like the overton window shifting.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,677
    kinabalu said:

    Comparing the Nom to WH markets to get the implied chance of Biden beating Trump if he doesn't step down ... 30%.

    Don't know what people make of that. Hard to say, isn't it. It's a very tricky thing to assess.

    About right/not lower, I'd say. He's still the not Trump candidate and even if you think he'll be ditched or Pres in name only then you have KH or much of the current team who are also not Trump.

    But, I don't really know and I'm looking through a UK (relatively sane) lens, which I suspect makes me underestimate Trump's chances overall, which is why I'm keeping out of it for now. I don't think Biden would lose big, but I do think he'd struggle to win.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,289

    Sky news showing a visibly angry Rishi Sunak condemning and actually saying the racist slur against him by the Reform volunteer

    Apparently the police are now investigating whether an offence has been committed and the Sky report is not going to help Reform with their pro Putin, racist and misogynistic views

    Time for conservatives to wake up and vote for the party to defend it from these vile views and characters

    Or, as a radical alternative, they might consider voting for a Party that has not fed off or tried to cash in on that theme.

    That would actually give them quite a wide choice.
    The danger is Reform out polls the conservative party and then Farage becomes the voice of the opposition

    I believe he has had the most appearances of any politico on BBC QT in this century, quite frankly the airtime he is given is a disgrace. The media are fully entitled to choose who they interview but he seems to be able to summon media like flies to shXT, this is a party which has never won anything except about 6 council seats.... (BXP/UKIP are not the same). Quite frankly his command of the media is disproportionate and dangerous
    Absolutely agree. It almost makes you wonder if those sympathetic to Labour at the BBC want him on so that he can help degrade the Tory Party even further than they have managed on their own. The useful idiots manage to push a modern day Oswald Mosley further into the gullible public consciousness to the detriment of our democracy.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,039
    Jonathan said:

    Sky news showing a visibly angry Rishi Sunak condemning and actually saying the racist slur against him by the Reform volunteer

    Apparently the police are now investigating whether an offence has been committed and the Sky report is not going to help Reform with highlighting their pro Putin, racist and misogynistic views

    Time for conservatives to wake up and vote for the party to defend it from these vile views and characters

    Sunak has never looked more authentic. That is genuine anger - and he is right to speak out as he has. However, this is also the bloke who has spent the last couple of years snuggling up to Reform voters and who was happy to take millions from Frank Hester. If he had taken a different path when he had the chance things may have turned out very differently for him.

    There’s another universe where Sunak took on the right, ended the culture wars, exposed the Rwanda scheme as the farce it is and returned to Cameron/May pragmatic conservative politics. I think there might have been conservative votes in an Thatcherite economic pragmatic approach to the EU and a return to the vote blue go green agenda.

    It’s tragic he didn’t go down that path.
    And why on earth would someone like me vote for that soppy Blairite shite. That’s why they are in the mess they are. They are a social Democrat party pretending to be conservative

    You are suggesting they do MORE of that and it will solve their problems. lol
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,309

    Sky news showing a visibly angry Rishi Sunak condemning and actually saying the racist slur against him by the Reform volunteer

    Apparently the police are now investigating whether an offence has been committed and the Sky report is not going to help Reform with their pro Putin, racist and misogynistic views

    Time for conservatives to wake up and vote for the party to defend it from these vile views and characters

    Or, as a radical alternative, they might consider voting for a Party that has not fed off or tried to cash in on that theme.

    That would actually give them quite a wide choice.
    The danger is Reform out polls the conservative party and then Farage becomes the voice of the opposition
    Perhaps they might vote on principle, rather than trying to game the system.

    It's just an idea.
  • Nunu5Nunu5 Posts: 963
    Unpopular said:

    Leon said:

    kamski said:

    Leon said:

    That analysis I linked claims that the democrats have just 40 days to do this. A new candidate has to be on the Ohio ballot by August 4

    Is that true? I don’t know the mechanics of American electoral law - but if that is true I suggest this is probably impossible. There’s not enough time

    Well Biden himself might not be on ballot in Ohio. Dems might have to just write Ohio off if it comes to that.
    So Ohio is not the clincher that guy claims? Can be Dems afford to write off a fairly big state like that?
    Ohio hasn't gone Dem since Obama. It's already gone.
    That's right the realignment of American politics means Ohio is a safe Trump state.
    It's just too wwc
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,605

    Jonathan said:

    Sky news showing a visibly angry Rishi Sunak condemning and actually saying the racist slur against him by the Reform volunteer

    Apparently the police are now investigating whether an offence has been committed and the Sky report is not going to help Reform with highlighting their pro Putin, racist and misogynistic views

    Time for conservatives to wake up and vote for the party to defend it from these vile views and characters

    Sunak has never looked more authentic. That is genuine anger - and he is right to speak out as he has. However, this is also the bloke who has spent the last couple of years snuggling up to Reform voters and who was happy to take millions from Frank Hester. If he had taken a different path when he had the chance things may have turned out very differently for him.

    There’s another universe where Sunak took on the right, ended the culture wars, exposed the Rwanda scheme as the farce it is and returned to Cameron/May pragmatic conservative politics. I think there might have been conservative votes in an Thatcherite economic pragmatic approach to the EU and a return to the vote blue go green agenda.

    It’s tragic he didn’t go down that path.
    How could Sunak have ended the culture war going on between people like JK Rowling and the Labour party?
    He might have cited how proud he was that the Tories introduced gay marriage, promoted tolerance as a conservative value and generally lowered the temperature. You know, political leadership.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,039
    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Very good brief analysis of why replacing Biden js so hard. Starts with the sheer lack of time. 40 days. Goes from there

    Also points to the dereliction of democracy that Joe Biden has clearly NOT been running the country for the last two years

    https://x.com/twobitidiot/status/1806609483558191168?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    The last bit is odd. How does Biden being too old for a 2nd term mean that his 1st term has been directed by shadowy puppeteers?
    Because he’s obviously not running the show as he’s not mentally capable
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,484
    edited June 28
    What's the underlying reason for the problem with postal voting in Scotland?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,679
    edited June 28
    Leon said:

    Actually, joking aside, I would not be surprised if America’s political impasse was resolved with violence. America is a very violent society. Lots of politicians have been shot over the decades

    It does arguably “solve” an insoluble problem.

    And you could argue either makes a good target for those so minded

    If Trump is jailed and somehow kept off the ballot and Biden scrapes home on a pitiful voteshare against a divided opposition then the US could be near civil war
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,039
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Actually, joking aside, I would not be surprised if America’s political impasse was resolved with violence. America is a very violent society. Lots of politicians have been shot over the decades

    It does arguably “solve” an insoluble problem.

    And you could argue either makes a good target for those so minded

    If Trump is jailed and somehow kept off the ballot and Biden scrapes home then the US could be near civil war
    Indeed. Perilous times
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,037
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Actually, joking aside, I would not be surprised if America’s political impasse was resolved with violence. America is a very violent society. Lots of politicians have been shot over the decades

    It does arguably “solve” an insoluble problem.

    And you could argue either makes a good target for those so minded

    If Trump is jailed and somehow kept off the ballot and Biden scrapes home on a pitiful voteshare against a divided opposition then the US could be near civil war
    (a) Trump is not going to be jailed.
    (b) What is the mechanism for keeping Trump off the ballot?
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,289
    Leon said:

    Jonathan said:

    Sky news showing a visibly angry Rishi Sunak condemning and actually saying the racist slur against him by the Reform volunteer

    Apparently the police are now investigating whether an offence has been committed and the Sky report is not going to help Reform with highlighting their pro Putin, racist and misogynistic views

    Time for conservatives to wake up and vote for the party to defend it from these vile views and characters

    Sunak has never looked more authentic. That is genuine anger - and he is right to speak out as he has. However, this is also the bloke who has spent the last couple of years snuggling up to Reform voters and who was happy to take millions from Frank Hester. If he had taken a different path when he had the chance things may have turned out very differently for him.

    There’s another universe where Sunak took on the right, ended the culture wars, exposed the Rwanda scheme as the farce it is and returned to Cameron/May pragmatic conservative politics. I think there might have been conservative votes in an Thatcherite economic pragmatic approach to the EU and a return to the vote blue go green agenda.

    It’s tragic he didn’t go down that path.
    And why on earth would someone like me vote for that soppy Blairite shite. That’s why they are in the mess they are. They are a social Democrat party pretending to be conservative

    You are suggesting they do MORE of that and it will solve their problems. lol
    Doing more of the swiveleyed loony nonsense that you would like them to do certainly will not. Conservatives win power when they are closer to the centre than Labour (and yes this even applied under Mrs T and even the twattish Johnson), and not when they are veering off in the direction of Putin appeasing Farage and his BNP fellow travellers.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,472
    Leon said:

    Jonathan said:

    Sky news showing a visibly angry Rishi Sunak condemning and actually saying the racist slur against him by the Reform volunteer

    Apparently the police are now investigating whether an offence has been committed and the Sky report is not going to help Reform with highlighting their pro Putin, racist and misogynistic views

    Time for conservatives to wake up and vote for the party to defend it from these vile views and characters

    Sunak has never looked more authentic. That is genuine anger - and he is right to speak out as he has. However, this is also the bloke who has spent the last couple of years snuggling up to Reform voters and who was happy to take millions from Frank Hester. If he had taken a different path when he had the chance things may have turned out very differently for him.

    There’s another universe where Sunak took on the right, ended the culture wars, exposed the Rwanda scheme as the farce it is and returned to Cameron/May pragmatic conservative politics. I think there might have been conservative votes in an Thatcherite economic pragmatic approach to the EU and a return to the vote blue go green agenda.

    It’s tragic he didn’t go down that path.
    And why on earth would someone like me vote for that soppy Blairite shite. That’s why they are in the mess they are. They are a social Democrat party pretending to be conservative

    You are suggesting they do MORE of that and it will solve their problems. lol
    Yeah, but you're more likely to vote for the fascists you so admire like Putin than 'soppy Blairite shite'.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,039
    edited June 28

    Leon said:

    Jonathan said:

    Sky news showing a visibly angry Rishi Sunak condemning and actually saying the racist slur against him by the Reform volunteer

    Apparently the police are now investigating whether an offence has been committed and the Sky report is not going to help Reform with highlighting their pro Putin, racist and misogynistic views

    Time for conservatives to wake up and vote for the party to defend it from these vile views and characters

    Sunak has never looked more authentic. That is genuine anger - and he is right to speak out as he has. However, this is also the bloke who has spent the last couple of years snuggling up to Reform voters and who was happy to take millions from Frank Hester. If he had taken a different path when he had the chance things may have turned out very differently for him.

    There’s another universe where Sunak took on the right, ended the culture wars, exposed the Rwanda scheme as the farce it is and returned to Cameron/May pragmatic conservative politics. I think there might have been conservative votes in an Thatcherite economic pragmatic approach to the EU and a return to the vote blue go green agenda.

    It’s tragic he didn’t go down that path.
    And why on earth would someone like me vote for that soppy Blairite shite. That’s why they are in the mess they are. They are a social Democrat party pretending to be conservative

    You are suggesting they do MORE of that and it will solve their problems. lol
    Doing more of the swiveleyed loony nonsense that you would like them to do certainly will not. Conservatives win power when they are closer to the centre than Labour (and yes this even applied under Mrs T and even the twattish Johnson), and not when they are veering off in the direction of Putin appeasing Farage and his BNP fellow travellers.
    That was received opinion twenty years ago, even ten years ago, and it was probably valid

    I think we are in a new era
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,186
    Unpopular said:

    Just had a thought, Hindenburg was 86 when he ran for re-election...

    So Hindenburg = Biden, and his younger opponent Hitler = Trump. So Biden is reelected, and later helps Trump become dictator. Comforting.

    His full name was apparently:
    Paul Ludwig Hans Anton von Beneckendorff de Pfeffel Hindenburg
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,605
    Leon said:

    Jonathan said:

    Sky news showing a visibly angry Rishi Sunak condemning and actually saying the racist slur against him by the Reform volunteer

    Apparently the police are now investigating whether an offence has been committed and the Sky report is not going to help Reform with highlighting their pro Putin, racist and misogynistic views

    Time for conservatives to wake up and vote for the party to defend it from these vile views and characters

    Sunak has never looked more authentic. That is genuine anger - and he is right to speak out as he has. However, this is also the bloke who has spent the last couple of years snuggling up to Reform voters and who was happy to take millions from Frank Hester. If he had taken a different path when he had the chance things may have turned out very differently for him.

    There’s another universe where Sunak took on the right, ended the culture wars, exposed the Rwanda scheme as the farce it is and returned to Cameron/May pragmatic conservative politics. I think there might have been conservative votes in an Thatcherite economic pragmatic approach to the EU and a return to the vote blue go green agenda.

    It’s tragic he didn’t go down that path.
    And why on earth would someone like me vote for that soppy Blairite shite. That’s why they are in the mess they are. They are a social Democrat party pretending to be conservative

    You are suggesting they do MORE of that and it will solve their problems. lol
    Is Thatcherite economics soppy? The entrepreneurial spirit has long been lacking in conservative thought. Bringing that back and saying we’re aligning with EU to create wealth might have been refreshing. That’s what she did.

    Furthermore the environment and climate change is an issue strategically suited to conservatives. Again an issue where Thatcher took an early lead.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,609
    kamski said:

    Leon said:

    That analysis I linked claims that the democrats have just 40 days to do this. A new candidate has to be on the Ohio ballot by August 4

    Is that true? I don’t know the mechanics of American electoral law - but if that is true I suggest this is probably impossible. There’s not enough time

    Well Biden himself might not be on ballot in Ohio. Dems might have to just write Ohio off if it comes to that.
    Ohio has been sorted is my understanding.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,037
    REPEAT:

    It doesn't matter who is on the ballot in November in individual States, so long as there is a Democrat. Remember: it is electors who go to the electoral college. Whether Biden is on the ballot or AN Other, they can still vote for the official candidate (Whitmer or Newsom or whoever) in the electoral college.
This discussion has been closed.