Actually, joking aside, I would not be surprised if America’s political impasse was resolved with violence. America is a very violent society. Lots of politicians have been shot over the decades
It does arguably “solve” an insoluble problem.
And you could argue either makes a good target for those so minded
If Trump is jailed and somehow kept off the ballot and Biden scrapes home on a pitiful voteshare against a divided opposition then the US could be near civil war
Actually, joking aside, I would not be surprised if America’s political impasse was resolved with violence. America is a very violent society. Lots of politicians have been shot over the decades
It does arguably “solve” an insoluble problem.
And you could argue either makes a good target for those so minded
If Trump is jailed and somehow kept off the ballot and Biden scrapes home then the US could be near civil war
Actually, joking aside, I would not be surprised if America’s political impasse was resolved with violence. America is a very violent society. Lots of politicians have been shot over the decades
It does arguably “solve” an insoluble problem.
And you could argue either makes a good target for those so minded
If Trump is jailed and somehow kept off the ballot and Biden scrapes home on a pitiful voteshare against a divided opposition then the US could be near civil war
(a) Trump is not going to be jailed. (b) What is the mechanism for keeping Trump off the ballot?
Sky news showing a visibly angry Rishi Sunak condemning and actually saying the racist slur against him by the Reform volunteer
Apparently the police are now investigating whether an offence has been committed and the Sky report is not going to help Reform with highlighting their pro Putin, racist and misogynistic views
Time for conservatives to wake up and vote for the party to defend it from these vile views and characters
Sunak has never looked more authentic. That is genuine anger - and he is right to speak out as he has. However, this is also the bloke who has spent the last couple of years snuggling up to Reform voters and who was happy to take millions from Frank Hester. If he had taken a different path when he had the chance things may have turned out very differently for him.
There’s another universe where Sunak took on the right, ended the culture wars, exposed the Rwanda scheme as the farce it is and returned to Cameron/May pragmatic conservative politics. I think there might have been conservative votes in an Thatcherite economic pragmatic approach to the EU and a return to the vote blue go green agenda.
It’s tragic he didn’t go down that path.
And why on earth would someone like me vote for that soppy Blairite shite. That’s why they are in the mess they are. They are a social Democrat party pretending to be conservative
You are suggesting they do MORE of that and it will solve their problems. lol
Doing more of the swiveleyed loony nonsense that you would like them to do certainly will not. Conservatives win power when they are closer to the centre than Labour (and yes this even applied under Mrs T and even the twattish Johnson), and not when they are veering off in the direction of Putin appeasing Farage and his BNP fellow travellers.
Sky news showing a visibly angry Rishi Sunak condemning and actually saying the racist slur against him by the Reform volunteer
Apparently the police are now investigating whether an offence has been committed and the Sky report is not going to help Reform with their pro Putin, racist and misogynistic views
Time for conservatives to wake up and vote for the party to defend it from these vile views and characters
Or, as a radical alternative, they might consider voting for a Party that has not fed off or tried to cash in on that theme.
That would actually give them quite a wide choice.
The danger is Reform out polls the conservative party and then Farage becomes the voice of the opposition
I believe he has had the most appearances of any politico on BBC QT in this century, quite frankly the airtime he is given is a disgrace. The media are fully entitled to choose who they interview but he seems to be able to summon media like flies to shXT, this is a party which has never won anything except about 6 council seats.... (BXP/UKIP are not the same). Quite frankly his command of the media is disproportionate and dangerous
Absolutely agree. It almost makes you wonder if those sympathetic to Labour at the BBC want him on so that he can help degrade the Tory Party even further than they have managed on their own. The useful idiots manage to push a modern day Oswald Mosley further into the gullible public consciousness to the detriment of our democracy.
The BBC putting Farage on loads is a pro-Labour conspiracy?
There are frogs downstream of Glastonbury who are not as high as you are right now.
Sky news showing a visibly angry Rishi Sunak condemning and actually saying the racist slur against him by the Reform volunteer
Apparently the police are now investigating whether an offence has been committed and the Sky report is not going to help Reform with highlighting their pro Putin, racist and misogynistic views
Time for conservatives to wake up and vote for the party to defend it from these vile views and characters
Sunak has never looked more authentic. That is genuine anger - and he is right to speak out as he has. However, this is also the bloke who has spent the last couple of years snuggling up to Reform voters and who was happy to take millions from Frank Hester. If he had taken a different path when he had the chance things may have turned out very differently for him.
There’s another universe where Sunak took on the right, ended the culture wars, exposed the Rwanda scheme as the farce it is and returned to Cameron/May pragmatic conservative politics. I think there might have been conservative votes in an Thatcherite economic pragmatic approach to the EU and a return to the vote blue go green agenda.
It’s tragic he didn’t go down that path.
And why on earth would someone like me vote for that soppy Blairite shite. That’s why they are in the mess they are. They are a social Democrat party pretending to be conservative
You are suggesting they do MORE of that and it will solve their problems. lol
Yeah, but you're more likely to vote for the fascists you so admire like Putin than 'soppy Blairite shite'.
Sky news showing a visibly angry Rishi Sunak condemning and actually saying the racist slur against him by the Reform volunteer
Apparently the police are now investigating whether an offence has been committed and the Sky report is not going to help Reform with highlighting their pro Putin, racist and misogynistic views
Time for conservatives to wake up and vote for the party to defend it from these vile views and characters
Sunak has never looked more authentic. That is genuine anger - and he is right to speak out as he has. However, this is also the bloke who has spent the last couple of years snuggling up to Reform voters and who was happy to take millions from Frank Hester. If he had taken a different path when he had the chance things may have turned out very differently for him.
There’s another universe where Sunak took on the right, ended the culture wars, exposed the Rwanda scheme as the farce it is and returned to Cameron/May pragmatic conservative politics. I think there might have been conservative votes in an Thatcherite economic pragmatic approach to the EU and a return to the vote blue go green agenda.
It’s tragic he didn’t go down that path.
And why on earth would someone like me vote for that soppy Blairite shite. That’s why they are in the mess they are. They are a social Democrat party pretending to be conservative
You are suggesting they do MORE of that and it will solve their problems. lol
Doing more of the swiveleyed loony nonsense that you would like them to do certainly will not. Conservatives win power when they are closer to the centre than Labour (and yes this even applied under Mrs T and even the twattish Johnson), and not when they are veering off in the direction of Putin appeasing Farage and his BNP fellow travellers.
That was received opinion twenty years ago, even ten years ago, and it was probably valid
Sky news showing a visibly angry Rishi Sunak condemning and actually saying the racist slur against him by the Reform volunteer
Apparently the police are now investigating whether an offence has been committed and the Sky report is not going to help Reform with highlighting their pro Putin, racist and misogynistic views
Time for conservatives to wake up and vote for the party to defend it from these vile views and characters
Sunak has never looked more authentic. That is genuine anger - and he is right to speak out as he has. However, this is also the bloke who has spent the last couple of years snuggling up to Reform voters and who was happy to take millions from Frank Hester. If he had taken a different path when he had the chance things may have turned out very differently for him.
There’s another universe where Sunak took on the right, ended the culture wars, exposed the Rwanda scheme as the farce it is and returned to Cameron/May pragmatic conservative politics. I think there might have been conservative votes in an Thatcherite economic pragmatic approach to the EU and a return to the vote blue go green agenda.
It’s tragic he didn’t go down that path.
And why on earth would someone like me vote for that soppy Blairite shite. That’s why they are in the mess they are. They are a social Democrat party pretending to be conservative
You are suggesting they do MORE of that and it will solve their problems. lol
Is Thatcherite economics soppy? The entrepreneurial spirit has long been lacking in conservative thought. Bringing that back and saying we’re aligning with EU to create wealth might have been refreshing. That’s what she did.
Furthermore the environment and climate change is an issue strategically suited to conservatives. Again an issue where Thatcher took an early lead.
That analysis I linked claims that the democrats have just 40 days to do this. A new candidate has to be on the Ohio ballot by August 4
Is that true? I don’t know the mechanics of American electoral law - but if that is true I suggest this is probably impossible. There’s not enough time
Well Biden himself might not be on ballot in Ohio. Dems might have to just write Ohio off if it comes to that.
It doesn't matter who is on the ballot in November in individual States, so long as there is a Democrat. Remember: it is electors who go to the electoral college. Whether Biden is on the ballot or AN Other, they can still vote for the official candidate (Whitmer or Newsom or whoever) in the electoral college.
Actually, joking aside, I would not be surprised if America’s political impasse was resolved with violence. America is a very violent society. Lots of politicians have been shot over the decades
It does arguably “solve” an insoluble problem.
And you could argue either makes a good target for those so minded
If Trump is jailed and somehow kept off the ballot and Biden scrapes home on a pitiful voteshare against a divided opposition then the US could be near civil war
(a) Trump is not going to be jailed. (b) What is the mechanism for keeping Trump off the ballot?
Likely he won't be but I wouldn't be certain. He has been convicted of multiple felonies, yet has shown not an ounce of remorse and treated the judge with contempt. The judge may well decide to jail Trump and make an example of him, the crimes he has been convicted of carry jail time at the top end.
The GOP elite would then have to try and fiddle the convention to replace Trump with a more establishment candidate while avoiding the MAGA crowd storming the stage, much as the Democratic elite might have to replace Biden at their convention while trying to keep party unity. 1968 might look like a walk in the park compared to what this summer's conventions may end up looking like
Brexit Britain could benefit from a flight to safety from the political chaos engulfing the US and EU.
"Coming up with results one does not like" does not equate to "political chaos". It's nowhere near Lebanon or Syria. By world standard, we are stable democracies.
It doesn't matter who is on the ballot in November in individual States, so long as there is a Democrat. Remember: it is electors who go to the electoral college. Whether Biden is on the ballot or AN Other, they can still vote for the official candidate (Whitmer or Newsom or whoever) in the electoral college.
And this is obviously the case, otherwise you'd be saying that if a Presidential candidate died between the convention and the election, then there simply wouldn't be a candidate for that party.
Sky news showing a visibly angry Rishi Sunak condemning and actually saying the racist slur against him by the Reform volunteer
Apparently the police are now investigating whether an offence has been committed and the Sky report is not going to help Reform with highlighting their pro Putin, racist and misogynistic views
Time for conservatives to wake up and vote for the party to defend it from these vile views and characters
Sunak has never looked more authentic. That is genuine anger - and he is right to speak out as he has. However, this is also the bloke who has spent the last couple of years snuggling up to Reform voters and who was happy to take millions from Frank Hester. If he had taken a different path when he had the chance things may have turned out very differently for him.
There’s another universe where Sunak took on the right, ended the culture wars, exposed the Rwanda scheme as the farce it is and returned to Cameron/May pragmatic conservative politics. I think there might have been conservative votes in an Thatcherite economic pragmatic approach to the EU and a return to the vote blue go green agenda.
It’s tragic he didn’t go down that path.
And why on earth would someone like me vote for that soppy Blairite shite. That’s why they are in the mess they are. They are a social Democrat party pretending to be conservative
You are suggesting they do MORE of that and it will solve their problems. lol
Yeah, but you're more likely to vote for the fascists you so admire like Putin than 'soppy Blairite shite'.
No. I did the compass test and it had me smack bang on the Tory position IF THE TORIES ACTUALLY DID WHAT THEY PROMISE TO DO. But they never do. They lie and obfuscate and raise immigration to insane levels
Eventually voters in their disgust reach for more extreme solutions. That seems to be what is happening here in France
That analysis I linked claims that the democrats have just 40 days to do this. A new candidate has to be on the Ohio ballot by August 4
Is that true? I don’t know the mechanics of American electoral law - but if that is true I suggest this is probably impossible. There’s not enough time
Well Biden himself might not be on ballot in Ohio. Dems might have to just write Ohio off if it comes to that.
So Ohio is not the clincher that guy claims? Can be Dems afford to write off a fairly big state like that?
Ohio is now solid Trump, it voted for Trump in 2016 and 2020
Ohio is R+6 in the Cook PVI, so a strong Democrat performance would put it on a knife edge, but Texas is only R+5, so Ohio's days as a swing state are firmly behind it for now.
Actually, joking aside, I would not be surprised if America’s political impasse was resolved with violence. America is a very violent society. Lots of politicians have been shot over the decades
It does arguably “solve” an insoluble problem.
And you could argue either makes a good target for those so minded
If Trump is jailed and somehow kept off the ballot and Biden scrapes home on a pitiful voteshare against a divided opposition then the US could be near civil war
(a) Trump is not going to be jailed. (b) What is the mechanism for keeping Trump off the ballot?
Likely he won't be but I wouldn't be certain. He has been convicted of multiple felonies, yet has shown not an ounce of remorse and treated the judge with contempt. The judge may well decide to jail Trump and make an example of him, the crimes he has been convicted of carry jail time at the top end.
The GOP elite would then have to fiddle the convention to replace Trump with a more establishment candidate, much as the Democratic elite might have to replace Biden at their convention
The Judge has gone out of his way not to do anything that could be reversed on appeal. I think it is much more likely - and much more humiliating - for Trump to have the equivalent of community service, and to be picking up trash in an orange jumpsuit.
As predicted. The Dems will fall into line. Biden stays. So all this has done is massively damage him - even as he stays the candidate
Helplessly bad. But it’s kinda what they deserve after all their lies for two years - “he’s always stammered”, “he’s amazing in private”, “he’s sharper than ever and wears adult diapers for fun”
Nah. It’s not even 10am the morning after. Biden won’t be running, they just need the last bit of the fix to overlook Harris too before the coup de grace.
That’s what I thought a few hours ago. But after contemplating - and seeing the first signs of wilful self-delusion “he wasn’t that bad really”, “ok he couldn’t form any words for an hour on live TV but he’s got a cold” I am fairly sure they will rationalise themselves to keeping him
If it was EASY to replace him then Yes. He’d be gone tonight. But he apparently wants to stay and so does his wife and all the replacements are problematic
However you may be right. Confronted with the horror of a likely Trump victory they may be galvanised
Its compelling in a macabre way
It's too early to know.
A lot of people in the party have to do a lot of talking with each other.
Maybe we will have a clearer idea by end of the weekend?
They can't just change the ballots at this stage.......the red states won't allow it......
Doesn't matter.
Remember you don't elect the President, you elect electors. The Biden electors would just vote for AN Other in the Electoral College.
And - btw - the ballot probably shouldn't be printed anyway until after the Convention, when someone officially becomes the candidate.
Does that work in Cleveland ?
@rcs? Of course it matters the voters (who are the defacto "electors" because the electors are not going to go against the will of the voters in reality
Actually, joking aside, I would not be surprised if America’s political impasse was resolved with violence. America is a very violent society. Lots of politicians have been shot over the decades
It does arguably “solve” an insoluble problem.
And you could argue either makes a good target for those so minded
If Trump is jailed and somehow kept off the ballot and Biden scrapes home on a pitiful voteshare against a divided opposition then the US could be near civil war
(a) Trump is not going to be jailed. (b) What is the mechanism for keeping Trump off the ballot?
Likely he won't be but I wouldn't be certain. He has been convicted of multiple felonies, yet has shown not an ounce of remorse and treated the judge with contempt. The judge may well decide to jail Trump and make an example of him, the crimes he has been convicted of carry jail time at the top end.
The GOP elite would then have to fiddle the convention to replace Trump with a more establishment candidate, much as the Democratic elite might have to replace Biden at their convention
Also: even if he is jailed (which he won't be), it'd be for 30 or 60 days. These are first time offences of a very minor nature. And it wouldn't result in him being kicked off the ballot (what's the mechanism?), it would merely meant that he was in a New York correctional institution on election night.
It doesn't matter who is on the ballot in November in individual States, so long as there is a Democrat. Remember: it is electors who go to the electoral college. Whether Biden is on the ballot or AN Other, they can still vote for the official candidate (Whitmer or Newsom or whoever) in the electoral college.
Indeed, but that does feel like a script turned down for a later season of the west wing for being too far fetched.
For those panicking about Biden (and I regret to say I'm joining that camp)... I think the next President market offers some reasonable odds.
For instance if you think Biden may choose to stand down (or be forced to)... you can get 26/1 on Kamala Harris winning. Or 600/1 on Buttigieg.
Is there a mechanism for someone other than Kamala Harris to take over?
The mechanism is a vote of delegates to the national convention. Which is in the middle of August.
How you persuade several thousand individuals chosen largely on the basis of a record of loyalty to Joe Biden is something for which a known mechanism doesn't exit.
Regardless of their loyalty, aren't most mandated to pick Biden? They're not free agents. The convention selects Biden unless Biden pulls out... I think.
As I understand it the DNC could just change the rules. I don't think there's anything to stop them just choosing the Democrat candidate themselves.
Don't rule changes require a DNC floor vote ?
Not sure, but I'm talking about the Democratic National Committee. tbh I have no idea how they operate, was hoping someone might
“As I understand it”. Peak PB comment.
Well that's what my limited research suggests, but I'm sure someone on here has greater expertise.
Actually, joking aside, I would not be surprised if America’s political impasse was resolved with violence. America is a very violent society. Lots of politicians have been shot over the decades
It does arguably “solve” an insoluble problem.
And you could argue either makes a good target for those so minded
If Trump is jailed and somehow kept off the ballot and Biden scrapes home on a pitiful voteshare against a divided opposition then the US could be near civil war
(a) Trump is not going to be jailed. (b) What is the mechanism for keeping Trump off the ballot?
Likely he won't be but I wouldn't be certain. He has been convicted of multiple felonies, yet has shown not an ounce of remorse and treated the judge with contempt. The judge may well decide to jail Trump and make an example of him, the crimes he has been convicted of carry jail time at the top end.
The GOP elite would then have to fiddle the convention to replace Trump with a more establishment candidate, much as the Democratic elite might have to replace Biden at their convention
Also: even if he is jailed (which he won't be), it'd be for 30 or 60 days. These are first time offences of a very minor nature. And it wouldn't result in him being kicked off the ballot (what's the mechanism?), it would merely meant that he was in a New York correctional institution on election night.
Also, also:
Assuming Trump is not in New York State, you would need to have a State extradite him to New York to serve his sentence. I simply cannot see the Florida Governor doing such a thing.
Sky news showing a visibly angry Rishi Sunak condemning and actually saying the racist slur against him by the Reform volunteer
Apparently the police are now investigating whether an offence has been committed and the Sky report is not going to help Reform with their pro Putin, racist and misogynistic views
Time for conservatives to wake up and vote for the party to defend it from these vile views and characters
Or, as a radical alternative, they might consider voting for a Party that has not fed off or tried to cash in on that theme.
That would actually give them quite a wide choice.
The danger is Reform out polls the conservative party and then Farage becomes the voice of the opposition
I believe he has had the most appearances of any politico on BBC QT in this century, quite frankly the airtime he is given is a disgrace. The media are fully entitled to choose who they interview but he seems to be able to summon media like flies to shXT, this is a party which has never won anything except about 6 council seats.... (BXP/UKIP are not the same). Quite frankly his command of the media is disproportionate and dangerous
Absolutely agree. It almost makes you wonder if those sympathetic to Labour at the BBC want him on so that he can help degrade the Tory Party even further than they have managed on their own. The useful idiots manage to push a modern day Oswald Mosley further into the gullible public consciousness to the detriment of our democracy.
The BBC putting Farage on loads is a pro-Labour conspiracy?
There are frogs downstream of Glastonbury who are not as high as you are right now.
Sigh, note the words "almost makes you wonder". I will use a similar parallel so that even you might understand:
Occasionally some of the comments on PB are so stupid, it *almost makes you wonder* if it is actually possible that some contributors are so totally lacking in analytical understanding that they could be as dumb as, say, @Farooq.
First, thanks yet again to The Green Machine for posting this analysis.
Second, am confused by statement that, "Naomi Long [APNI] could be depending on the SF voters and transfers". The voters I get; but transfers? Thought that Westminster elections in NI were like rest of UK = FPTP?
I think Westminster constituencies in NI do use FPTP and @TheGreenMachine was speaking metaphorically.
Even though Ohio isn't realistically in play for the Democrats, it'd be a big old (And very negative for the Democrats) news story if the official nominee wasn't on the ballot there.
Sky news showing a visibly angry Rishi Sunak condemning and actually saying the racist slur against him by the Reform volunteer
Apparently the police are now investigating whether an offence has been committed and the Sky report is not going to help Reform with highlighting their pro Putin, racist and misogynistic views
Time for conservatives to wake up and vote for the party to defend it from these vile views and characters
Sunak has never looked more authentic. That is genuine anger - and he is right to speak out as he has. However, this is also the bloke who has spent the last couple of years snuggling up to Reform voters and who was happy to take millions from Frank Hester. If he had taken a different path when he had the chance things may have turned out very differently for him.
There’s another universe where Sunak took on the right, ended the culture wars, exposed the Rwanda scheme as the farce it is and returned to Cameron/May pragmatic conservative politics. I think there might have been conservative votes in an Thatcherite economic pragmatic approach to the EU and a return to the vote blue go green agenda.
It’s tragic he didn’t go down that path.
And why on earth would someone like me vote for that soppy Blairite shite. That’s why they are in the mess they are. They are a social Democrat party pretending to be conservative
You are suggesting they do MORE of that and it will solve their problems. lol
Yeah, but you're more likely to vote for the fascists you so admire like Putin than 'soppy Blairite shite'.
No. I did the compass test and it had me smack bang on the Tory position IF THE TORIES ACTUALLY DID WHAT THEY PROMISE TO DO. But they never do. They lie and obfuscate and raise immigration to insane levels
Eventually voters in their disgust reach for more extreme solutions. That seems to be what is happening here in France
"More extreme solutions" being code for fascism, in your case. But you're just looking for excuses. You admire a fascist imperialist such as Putin because he gives one speech where he criticising woke. That's the earth-sized rabbithole you're fallen down.
I don't think these attacks on Reform will work. The aim is to try and destroy them by revealing their 'true nature' but it just keeps getting shrugged off by Farage. So the attacks fail, and the by product is that the discourse is normalised. It feels like the overton window shifting.
Yes. There is a fashion on TikTok for young kids in France and Germany to say “yeah I’m a racist so fucking what”
The term has lost a lot of its negative power through overuse and now it has a kind of mildly transgressive chic - which kids love of course. That’s how you shock the elders these days. Say “yeah I’m a racist” on TikTok. Cue heart attack in your parents
Saying “fuck the toreeez” and going to Glastonbury is what people like @Heathener do
Again I don’t believe Britain will be immune from this trend, we are merely behind the curve
It is quite entertaining to observe how Nigel Farage has the ability to drive people in to a total incoherant frenzy. He manages to make his opponents mad without actually doing anything significant. It isn't like he is calling his opponents 'scum', or saying that all debate should be stopped as it is 'hatred', as left wing politicians have done in the past few years. Regarding Reform supporters, it isn't like they are pulling down statues, vandalising ancient monuments, blocking ambulances etc. This all feels like the usual thing of a free pass for the far left but impossibly high standards applied to anyone on the 'far right'.
As predicted. The Dems will fall into line. Biden stays. So all this has done is massively damage him - even as he stays the candidate
Helplessly bad. But it’s kinda what they deserve after all their lies for two years - “he’s always stammered”, “he’s amazing in private”, “he’s sharper than ever and wears adult diapers for fun”
Nah. It’s not even 10am the morning after. Biden won’t be running, they just need the last bit of the fix to overlook Harris too before the coup de grace.
That’s what I thought a few hours ago. But after contemplating - and seeing the first signs of wilful self-delusion “he wasn’t that bad really”, “ok he couldn’t form any words for an hour on live TV but he’s got a cold” I am fairly sure they will rationalise themselves to keeping him
If it was EASY to replace him then Yes. He’d be gone tonight. But he apparently wants to stay and so does his wife and all the replacements are problematic
However you may be right. Confronted with the horror of a likely Trump victory they may be galvanised
Its compelling in a macabre way
It's too early to know.
A lot of people in the party have to do a lot of talking with each other.
Maybe we will have a clearer idea by end of the weekend?
They can't just change the ballots at this stage.......the red states won't allow it......
Doesn't matter.
Remember you don't elect the President, you elect electors. The Biden electors would just vote for AN Other in the Electoral College.
And - btw - the ballot probably shouldn't be printed anyway until after the Convention, when someone officially becomes the candidate.
Does that work in Cleveland ?
@rcs? Of course it matters the voters (who are the defacto "electors" because the electors are not going to go against the will of the voters in reality
Let's play this out.
Joe Biden steps down, but is still on the ballot in (say) Colorado.
The official Democrat candidate is now Gretchen Whitmer.
In Colorado, it is still Trump v Biden because the change happened after the deadline for nominations.
It comes to the Electoral College.
Will the electors vote for Gretchen Whitmer or the (has now stepped down) Joe Biden?
In the real world, everyone knows that they would vote for Gretchen Whitmer.
The last bit is odd. How does Biden being too old for a 2nd term mean that his 1st term has been directed by shadowy puppeteers?
Because he’s obviously not running the show as he’s not mentally capable
He looks and sounds too frail to run for or serve a 2nd term hence he hasn't been in charge of things for ages? No doubt that talking point will be pushed by Donald Trump and his supporters but it's not a good piece of logical reasoning.
Sky news showing a visibly angry Rishi Sunak condemning and actually saying the racist slur against him by the Reform volunteer
Apparently the police are now investigating whether an offence has been committed and the Sky report is not going to help Reform with highlighting their pro Putin, racist and misogynistic views
Time for conservatives to wake up and vote for the party to defend it from these vile views and characters
Sunak has never looked more authentic. That is genuine anger - and he is right to speak out as he has. However, this is also the bloke who has spent the last couple of years snuggling up to Reform voters and who was happy to take millions from Frank Hester. If he had taken a different path when he had the chance things may have turned out very differently for him.
There’s another universe where Sunak took on the right, ended the culture wars, exposed the Rwanda scheme as the farce it is and returned to Cameron/May pragmatic conservative politics. I think there might have been conservative votes in an Thatcherite economic pragmatic approach to the EU and a return to the vote blue go green agenda.
It’s tragic he didn’t go down that path.
And why on earth would someone like me vote for that soppy Blairite shite. That’s why they are in the mess they are. They are a social Democrat party pretending to be conservative
You are suggesting they do MORE of that and it will solve their problems. lol
Doing more of the swiveleyed loony nonsense that you would like them to do certainly will not. Conservatives win power when they are closer to the centre than Labour (and yes this even applied under Mrs T and even the twattish Johnson), and not when they are veering off in the direction of Putin appeasing Farage and his BNP fellow travellers.
That was received opinion twenty years ago, even ten years ago, and it was probably valid
I think we are in a new era
I think you hope that that era is a throwback to 1936. Maybe you are tragically right, though I hope not.
Sky news showing a visibly angry Rishi Sunak condemning and actually saying the racist slur against him by the Reform volunteer
Apparently the police are now investigating whether an offence has been committed and the Sky report is not going to help Reform with highlighting their pro Putin, racist and misogynistic views
Time for conservatives to wake up and vote for the party to defend it from these vile views and characters
Sunak has never looked more authentic. That is genuine anger - and he is right to speak out as he has. However, this is also the bloke who has spent the last couple of years snuggling up to Reform voters and who was happy to take millions from Frank Hester. If he had taken a different path when he had the chance things may have turned out very differently for him.
There’s another universe where Sunak took on the right, ended the culture wars, exposed the Rwanda scheme as the farce it is and returned to Cameron/May pragmatic conservative politics. I think there might have been conservative votes in an Thatcherite economic pragmatic approach to the EU and a return to the vote blue go green agenda.
It’s tragic he didn’t go down that path.
And why on earth would someone like me vote for that soppy Blairite shite. That’s why they are in the mess they are. They are a social Democrat party pretending to be conservative
You are suggesting they do MORE of that and it will solve their problems. lol
Yeah, but you're more likely to vote for the fascists you so admire like Putin than 'soppy Blairite shite'.
No. I did the compass test and it had me smack bang on the Tory position IF THE TORIES ACTUALLY DID WHAT THEY PROMISE TO DO. But they never do. They lie and obfuscate and raise immigration to insane levels
Eventually voters in their disgust reach for more extreme solutions. That seems to be what is happening here in France
"More extreme solutions" being code for fascism, in your case. But you're just looking for excuses. You admire a fascist imperialist such as Putin because he gives one speech where he criticising woke. That's the earth-sized rabbithole you're fallen down.
Yes Mrs Jessop, whatever you say. Have another Hobnob and calm down
I don't think these attacks on Reform will work. The aim is to try and destroy them by revealing their 'true nature' but it just keeps getting shrugged off by Farage. So the attacks fail, and the by product is that the discourse is normalised. It feels like the overton window shifting.
Yes. There is a fashion on TikTok for young kids in France and Germany to say “yeah I’m a racist so fucking what”
The term has lost a lot of its negative power through overuse and now it has a kind of mildly transgressive chic - which kids love of course. That’s how you shock the elders these days. Say “yeah I’m a racist” on TikTok. Cue heart attack in your parents
Saying “fuck the toreeez” and going to Glastonbury is what people like @Heathener do
Again I don’t believe Britain will be immune from this trend, we are merely behind the curve
Is Britain ahead, behind or on a totally different curve? Time will tell. Brexit and Johnson gave the populist mad right wing nonsense thing a bad name with anyone under 50
That analysis I linked claims that the democrats have just 40 days to do this. A new candidate has to be on the Ohio ballot by August 4
Is that true? I don’t know the mechanics of American electoral law - but if that is true I suggest this is probably impossible. There’s not enough time
Well Biden himself might not be on ballot in Ohio. Dems might have to just write Ohio off if it comes to that.
Ohio has been sorted is my understanding.
Ah OK I missed that. Makes sense. Not much point Republicans playing hard ball in a state they're going to win anyway. They probably figured keeping Biden off the ballot would hurt them in the Senate race, which is competitive.
As predicted. The Dems will fall into line. Biden stays. So all this has done is massively damage him - even as he stays the candidate
Helplessly bad. But it’s kinda what they deserve after all their lies for two years - “he’s always stammered”, “he’s amazing in private”, “he’s sharper than ever and wears adult diapers for fun”
Nah. It’s not even 10am the morning after. Biden won’t be running, they just need the last bit of the fix to overlook Harris too before the coup de grace.
That’s what I thought a few hours ago. But after contemplating - and seeing the first signs of wilful self-delusion “he wasn’t that bad really”, “ok he couldn’t form any words for an hour on live TV but he’s got a cold” I am fairly sure they will rationalise themselves to keeping him
If it was EASY to replace him then Yes. He’d be gone tonight. But he apparently wants to stay and so does his wife and all the replacements are problematic
However you may be right. Confronted with the horror of a likely Trump victory they may be galvanised
Its compelling in a macabre way
It's too early to know.
A lot of people in the party have to do a lot of talking with each other.
Maybe we will have a clearer idea by end of the weekend?
They can't just change the ballots at this stage.......the red states won't allow it......
Doesn't matter.
Remember you don't elect the President, you elect electors. The Biden electors would just vote for AN Other in the Electoral College.
And - btw - the ballot probably shouldn't be printed anyway until after the Convention, when someone officially becomes the candidate.
Does that work in Cleveland ?
@rcs? Of course it matters the voters (who are the defacto "electors" because the electors are not going to go against the will of the voters in reality
Let's play this out.
Joe Biden steps down, but is still on the ballot in (say) Colorado.
The official Democrat candidate is now Gretchen Whitmer.
In Colorado, it is still Trump v Biden because the change happened after the deadline for nominations.
It comes to the Electoral College.
Will the electors vote for Gretchen Whitmer or the (has now stepped down) Joe Biden?
In the real world, everyone knows that they would vote for Gretchen Whitmer.
Depends on whether there are requirements in the relevant state for electors to be faithful?
Sky news showing a visibly angry Rishi Sunak condemning and actually saying the racist slur against him by the Reform volunteer
Apparently the police are now investigating whether an offence has been committed and the Sky report is not going to help Reform with highlighting their pro Putin, racist and misogynistic views
Time for conservatives to wake up and vote for the party to defend it from these vile views and characters
Sunak has never looked more authentic. That is genuine anger - and he is right to speak out as he has. However, this is also the bloke who has spent the last couple of years snuggling up to Reform voters and who was happy to take millions from Frank Hester. If he had taken a different path when he had the chance things may have turned out very differently for him.
There’s another universe where Sunak took on the right, ended the culture wars, exposed the Rwanda scheme as the farce it is and returned to Cameron/May pragmatic conservative politics. I think there might have been conservative votes in an Thatcherite economic pragmatic approach to the EU and a return to the vote blue go green agenda.
It’s tragic he didn’t go down that path.
And why on earth would someone like me vote for that soppy Blairite shite. That’s why they are in the mess they are. They are a social Democrat party pretending to be conservative
You are suggesting they do MORE of that and it will solve their problems. lol
Yeah, but you're more likely to vote for the fascists you so admire like Putin than 'soppy Blairite shite'.
No. I did the compass test and it had me smack bang on the Tory position IF THE TORIES ACTUALLY DID WHAT THEY PROMISE TO DO. But they never do. They lie and obfuscate and raise immigration to insane levels
Eventually voters in their disgust reach for more extreme solutions. That seems to be what is happening here in France
"More extreme solutions" being code for fascism, in your case. But you're just looking for excuses. You admire a fascist imperialist such as Putin because he gives one speech where he criticising woke. That's the earth-sized rabbithole you're fallen down.
Yes Mrs Jessop, whatever you say. Have another Hobnob and calm down
Actually, joking aside, I would not be surprised if America’s political impasse was resolved with violence. America is a very violent society. Lots of politicians have been shot over the decades
It does arguably “solve” an insoluble problem.
And you could argue either makes a good target for those so minded
If Trump is jailed and somehow kept off the ballot and Biden scrapes home on a pitiful voteshare against a divided opposition then the US could be near civil war
(a) Trump is not going to be jailed. (b) What is the mechanism for keeping Trump off the ballot?
Likely he won't be but I wouldn't be certain. He has been convicted of multiple felonies, yet has shown not an ounce of remorse and treated the judge with contempt. The judge may well decide to jail Trump and make an example of him, the crimes he has been convicted of carry jail time at the top end.
The GOP elite would then have to try and fiddle the convention to replace Trump with a more establishment candidate while avoiding the MAGA crowd storming the stage, much as the Democratic elite might have to replace Biden at their convention while trying to keep party unity. 1968 might look like a walk in the park compared to what this summer's conventions may end up looking like
And how do they do that, since Trumpworld controls the GOP ? The chair of the RNC publicly refused to condemn Jan 6th; the Vice Chair is Lara Trump. Both were elected unopposed.
Everyone seems to imagine we're still back in the 1960s. Who is this mythical "GOP elite" ?
It has an editable section for results, so anyone can fill in the grey section on the RESULTS INPUT tab.
Constituencies are in expected time order, the Winner by "Expected declaration time by model" will compare the result against 8 or so different models. If anyone wants to fill in results please do so - if anyone has some sort of results xml, json or live rss (Or anything like that jazz) and knows how to link to individual results within please let me know
I am glad the pubs are closing if this is the sort of talk that goes on in them.
A Reform UK volunteer who was filmed by Channel 4 News calling Rishi Sunak a “f------ p---” has apologised, saying he was “goaded on”.
Andrew Parker said he made the comments, recorded by undercover reporters, “in the heat of the moment”.
Mr Parker also confirmed claims that he was a part-time actor but said he got involved with Reform UK after contacting the party himself and volunteering to do leafleting because he believes in its message.
He said he had not told the party that he was an actor.
Mr Parker said: “Of course I regret what I said. Christ, I’m not a racist. I’ve had Muslim girlfriends. It was typical chaps-down-the-pub talk.”
Asked whether he would like to apologise, he said: “Of course I’m sorry. They were off-the-cuff things that everyone says.”
He said he had “a lot of Pakistani friends” and “Muslim friends”, and that he was “sick to death” of being asked about the footage
Asking the PB massive, am I racist because I've never had a Muslim girlfriend?
The open question is was he acting, or were those his views. He's only got a week to wait if he was actually acting and then comes out with gushing interviews about how "I set reform up, it was a service to the nation". He would likely get a lot of work off the back of that from people who hate Farage. There's no way on God's green earth he'll admit he was acting prior to the big bong at 10 PM next Thursday.
So apparently there's source material showing him campaigning for UKIP/Farage as far back as 2014, that's a decade as a sleeper agent.
If you are going to do a sting, best not to make the subject an apparent card carrying equity holder who specialises in Alf Garnetesque "rough voice" characters and campaigns in character.
The initial report had 3 different Reform UK campaigners saying problematic things. Why are we forgetting the other two?
Correct. This is squirrel throwing from Farage. I think it's more likely the actor a real activist who is now spinning for Farage to discredit C4.
The ones Farage should be (probably is, given that he isn't a doofus) worried about are those in the pub conversation:
George Jones, Farage's Events Organiser Dan Jukes, Reform National Press Officer Roger Gravit, Reform London Area Manager Rob Bates, Senior Reform Campaigner
Talking about:
Rainbow flags on police cars as "degenerate". Inclusive campaigners and Islamist campaigners compared to Stalin and Hitler wrt to 'us' being Poland. Needing "straight" police officers. "Paramilitary" police. Bring back the noose.
For those panicking about Biden (and I regret to say I'm joining that camp)... I think the next President market offers some reasonable odds.
For instance if you think Biden may choose to stand down (or be forced to)... you can get 26/1 on Kamala Harris winning. Or 600/1 on Buttigieg.
Harris is a terrible candidate, but a great bet.
She's the incumbent VP. She's not senile.
And it's not like Trump doesn't have his own issues.
I would buy her into the high teens. (Indeed, I think she is far more likely to be the candidate than Michelle Obama or Gavin Newsom.)
The focus after last night's performance is on Biden and the predicament in which the Dems now find themselves. It's logical that we should so focus upon who should follow Biden and the choices that must be made.
But what if Trump cannot or does not run? As @rcs1000 says, Trump is not without his own issues - both legal and (questionably) medical. I've long assumed that if Trump was jailed it would turn a proportion of the voting public against him. It would be unacceptable for a convicted felon to be President and more so if he were to be jailed. I've also assumed that a medical issue could prevent a run for White House.
The question that I've been unable to answer is what if Trump quits the race for no other reason than the fact that Biden has already quit the race? Trump seeks revenge upon those that robbed him of the White House. The biggest culprit is Joe Biden. That's why he's running. Yet if Biden is removed from the field of play, would Trump continue his own campaign? Going up against Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden is different to Kamala Harris. Clinton and Biden have natural supporters and are giants within American politics. Harris isn't and doesn't have a group of natural supporters. She should - in theory - be easy to beat but there's no 'win' for Trump in that. The win for Trump would be to take on the giants, a Clinton or a Biden, and slay them as the tough guy.
So what if Trump cuts his losses and runs? Biden's dropped out or been replaced. Why should Trump continue in the race. And in that situation - or any situation (such as being jailed or a medical issue) - who do the GOP choose? It strikes me that the Dems aren't the only party that find themselves in a pickle. Who comes after Trump? What iteration of the GOP emerges? The Bible Belt/January 6/Tea Party iteration or the pragmatic and reasoned GOP that looks a little more like that of old?
It is quite entertaining to observe how Nigel Farage has the ability to drive people in to a total incoherant frenzy. He manages to make his opponents mad without actually doing anything significant. It isn't like he is calling his opponents 'scum', or saying that all debate should be stopped as it is 'hatred', as left wing politicians have done in the past few years. Regarding Reform supporters, it isn't like they are pulling down statues, vandalising ancient monuments, blocking ambulances etc. This all feels like the usual thing of a free pass for the far left but impossibly high standards applied to anyone on the 'far right'.
I loath the far left, but it may need pointing out to you that the far right,even just in this country, has set rather a lot more dangerous historical precedents than just pulling down statues. Fascism needs calling out. Yes there are lots of idiots who want to pretend that label doesn't apply to Farage, but the cap fits him very well.
Actually, joking aside, I would not be surprised if America’s political impasse was resolved with violence. America is a very violent society. Lots of politicians have been shot over the decades
It does arguably “solve” an insoluble problem.
And you could argue either makes a good target for those so minded
If Trump is jailed and somehow kept off the ballot and Biden scrapes home on a pitiful voteshare against a divided opposition then the US could be near civil war
(a) Trump is not going to be jailed. (b) What is the mechanism for keeping Trump off the ballot?
Likely he won't be but I wouldn't be certain. He has been convicted of multiple felonies, yet has shown not an ounce of remorse and treated the judge with contempt. The judge may well decide to jail Trump and make an example of him, the crimes he has been convicted of carry jail time at the top end.
The GOP elite would then have to fiddle the convention to replace Trump with a more establishment candidate, much as the Democratic elite might have to replace Biden at their convention
Also: even if he is jailed (which he won't be), it'd be for 30 or 60 days. These are first time offences of a very minor nature. And it wouldn't result in him being kicked off the ballot (what's the mechanism?), it would merely meant that he was in a New York correctional institution on election night.
The judge could sentence Trump to 4 years in jail, the maximum sentence for these felonies he was convicted of, just for the LOLZ. Giving a whole new meaning to '4 more years' come convention time!
Actually, joking aside, I would not be surprised if America’s political impasse was resolved with violence. America is a very violent society. Lots of politicians have been shot over the decades
It does arguably “solve” an insoluble problem.
And you could argue either makes a good target for those so minded
If Trump is jailed and somehow kept off the ballot and Biden scrapes home on a pitiful voteshare against a divided opposition then the US could be near civil war
(a) Trump is not going to be jailed. (b) What is the mechanism for keeping Trump off the ballot?
Likely he won't be but I wouldn't be certain. He has been convicted of multiple felonies, yet has shown not an ounce of remorse and treated the judge with contempt. The judge may well decide to jail Trump and make an example of him, the crimes he has been convicted of carry jail time at the top end.
The GOP elite would then have to fiddle the convention to replace Trump with a more establishment candidate, much as the Democratic elite might have to replace Biden at their convention
The Judge has gone out of his way not to do anything that could be reversed on appeal. I think it is much more likely - and much more humiliating - for Trump to have the equivalent of community service, and to be picking up trash in an orange jumpsuit.
If Trump had showed some remorse post conviction or better still pled guilty he would have got probation and community service no question.
This is your semi-regular reminder that although Cameron introduced the bill, a majority of Conservative MPs didn't vote for it and the Bill only became an Act courtesy of Lab and LD MPs.
Actually, joking aside, I would not be surprised if America’s political impasse was resolved with violence. America is a very violent society. Lots of politicians have been shot over the decades
It does arguably “solve” an insoluble problem.
And you could argue either makes a good target for those so minded
If Trump is jailed and somehow kept off the ballot and Biden scrapes home on a pitiful voteshare against a divided opposition then the US could be near civil war
(a) Trump is not going to be jailed. (b) What is the mechanism for keeping Trump off the ballot?
Likely he won't be but I wouldn't be certain. He has been convicted of multiple felonies, yet has shown not an ounce of remorse and treated the judge with contempt. The judge may well decide to jail Trump and make an example of him, the crimes he has been convicted of carry jail time at the top end.
The GOP elite would then have to try and fiddle the convention to replace Trump with a more establishment candidate while avoiding the MAGA crowd storming the stage, much as the Democratic elite might have to replace Biden at their convention while trying to keep party unity. 1968 might look like a walk in the park compared to what this summer's conventions may end up looking like
And how do they do that, since Trumpworld controls the GOP ? The chair of the RNC publicly refused to condemn Jan 6th; the Vice Chair is Lara Trump. Both were elected unopposed.
Everyone seems to imagine we're still back in the 1960s. Who is this mythical "GOP elite" ?
If they couldn't you may see someone like Romney launch an Independent Republican candidacy
This is your semi-regular reminder that although Cameron introduced the bill, a majority of Conservative MPs didn't vote for it and the Bill only became an Act courtesy of Lab and LD MPs.
Spot on. Praise Cameron for his leadership, but not the Tories in general.
I don't think these attacks on Reform will work. The aim is to try and destroy them by revealing their 'true nature' but it just keeps getting shrugged off by Farage. So the attacks fail, and the by product is that the discourse is normalised. It feels like the overton window shifting.
Yes. There is a fashion on TikTok for young kids in France and Germany to say “yeah I’m a racist so fucking what”
The term has lost a lot of its negative power through overuse and now it has a kind of mildly transgressive chic - which kids love of course. That’s how you shock the elders these days. Say “yeah I’m a racist” on TikTok. Cue heart attack in your parents
Saying “fuck the toreeez” and going to Glastonbury is what people like @Heathener do
Again I don’t believe Britain will be immune from this trend, we are merely behind the curve
The problem in my view is that people haven't thought through how reactive dynamics work. The next generation search for something to react against. If the 'left' is the completely dominant political and cultural force, as it is, and it gets over confident and arrogant, then the reaction to it is going to be on the opposite political side. We are in an unprecedented era because up until now, the left never ascended to where it got to in 2020, where riots and protests were normalised, criticism was outlawed and banned as hate speech. Being on the radical left is now not radical at all, it makes you part of the establishment.
It is quite entertaining to observe how Nigel Farage has the ability to drive people in to a total incoherant frenzy. He manages to make his opponents mad without actually doing anything significant. It isn't like he is calling his opponents 'scum', or saying that all debate should be stopped as it is 'hatred', as left wing politicians have done in the past few years. Regarding Reform supporters, it isn't like they are pulling down statues, vandalising ancient monuments, blocking ambulances etc. This all feels like the usual thing of a free pass for the far left but impossibly high standards applied to anyone on the 'far right'.
The Dems probably should have selected a VP as similar as possible to Biden [in terms of political viewpoints], just younger. Then they could have easily replaced him if it became necessary. (Not necessarily another white man).
That analysis I linked claims that the democrats have just 40 days to do this. A new candidate has to be on the Ohio ballot by August 4
Is that true? I don’t know the mechanics of American electoral law - but if that is true I suggest this is probably impossible. There’s not enough time
Well Biden himself might not be on ballot in Ohio. Dems might have to just write Ohio off if it comes to that.
So Ohio is not the clincher that guy claims? Can be Dems afford to write off a fairly big state like that?
Ohio is now solid Trump, it voted for Trump in 2016 and 2020
Ohio is R+6 in the Cook PVI, so a strong Democrat performance would put it on a knife edge, but Texas is only R+5, so Ohio's days as a swing state are firmly behind it for now.
Crikey. There are only 19 States where the Democrats lead in the PVI - which means that, all other things being equal, the Democrats would expect to end up with only 38 Senators.
As predicted. The Dems will fall into line. Biden stays. So all this has done is massively damage him - even as he stays the candidate
Helplessly bad. But it’s kinda what they deserve after all their lies for two years - “he’s always stammered”, “he’s amazing in private”, “he’s sharper than ever and wears adult diapers for fun”
Nah. It’s not even 10am the morning after. Biden won’t be running, they just need the last bit of the fix to overlook Harris too before the coup de grace.
That’s what I thought a few hours ago. But after contemplating - and seeing the first signs of wilful self-delusion “he wasn’t that bad really”, “ok he couldn’t form any words for an hour on live TV but he’s got a cold” I am fairly sure they will rationalise themselves to keeping him
If it was EASY to replace him then Yes. He’d be gone tonight. But he apparently wants to stay and so does his wife and all the replacements are problematic
However you may be right. Confronted with the horror of a likely Trump victory they may be galvanised
Its compelling in a macabre way
It's too early to know.
A lot of people in the party have to do a lot of talking with each other.
Maybe we will have a clearer idea by end of the weekend?
They can't just change the ballots at this stage.......the red states won't allow it......
Doesn't matter.
Remember you don't elect the President, you elect electors. The Biden electors would just vote for AN Other in the Electoral College.
And - btw - the ballot probably shouldn't be printed anyway until after the Convention, when someone officially becomes the candidate.
Does that work in Cleveland ?
@rcs? Of course it matters the voters (who are the defacto "electors" because the electors are not going to go against the will of the voters in reality
Let's play this out.
Joe Biden steps down, but is still on the ballot in (say) Colorado.
The official Democrat candidate is now Gretchen Whitmer.
In Colorado, it is still Trump v Biden because the change happened after the deadline for nominations.
It comes to the Electoral College.
Will the electors vote for Gretchen Whitmer or the (has now stepped down) Joe Biden?
In the real world, everyone knows that they would vote for Gretchen Whitmer.
Depends on whether there are requirements in the relevant state for electors to be faithful?
Faithful elector rules only apply in the first round of voting. Bear in mind, too, that it is not FPTP: someone needs to get a majority of delegates.
Brexit Britain could benefit from a flight to safety from the political chaos engulfing the US and EU.
This will compensate for all the dynamic wealthy patriots who'll be leaving for Dubai due to Labour wokeness and high taxes.
Oh please don't tell me that you, as an accountant, agree with that twat who wrote in The Guardian that we should be pleased that wealthy people are leaving.
To alter the quote from Blackadder, many Labour voters brains are so minute , that if a hungry cannibal cracked one of their heads open, there wouldn't be enough to cover a small water biscuit.
The Dems probably should have selected a VP as similar as possible to Biden [in terms of political viewpoints], just younger. Then they could have easily replaced him. (I don't mean necessarily mean another white man).
If I were to choose the Democrat most likely to carry the rust belt, I would go with Senator Sherrod Brown of Ohio. After him, I'd choose Whitmer. And then if that isn't possible, I'd go with Buttigieg or Osoff.
I don't think these attacks on Reform will work. The aim is to try and destroy them by revealing their 'true nature' but it just keeps getting shrugged off by Farage. So the attacks fail, and the by product is that the discourse is normalised. It feels like the overton window shifting.
Yes. There is a fashion on TikTok for young kids in France and Germany to say “yeah I’m a racist so fucking what”
The term has lost a lot of its negative power through overuse and now it has a kind of mildly transgressive chic - which kids love of course. That’s how you shock the elders these days. Say “yeah I’m a racist” on TikTok. Cue heart attack in your parents
Saying “fuck the toreeez” and going to Glastonbury is what people like @Heathener do
Again I don’t believe Britain will be immune from this trend, we are merely behind the curve
The problem in my view is that people haven't thought through how reactive dynamics work. The next generation search for something to react against. If the 'left' is the completely dominant political and cultural force, as it is, and it gets over confident and arrogant, then the reaction to it is going to be on the opposite political side. We are in an unprecedented era because up until now, the left never ascended to where it got to in 2020, where riots and protests were normalised, criticism was outlawed and banned as hate speech. Being on the radical left is now not radical at all, it makes you part of the establishment.
Sky news showing a visibly angry Rishi Sunak condemning and actually saying the racist slur against him by the Reform volunteer
Apparently the police are now investigating whether an offence has been committed and the Sky report is not going to help Reform with highlighting their pro Putin, racist and misogynistic views
Time for conservatives to wake up and vote for the party to defend it from these vile views and characters
Sunak has never looked more authentic. That is genuine anger - and he is right to speak out as he has. However, this is also the bloke who has spent the last couple of years snuggling up to Reform voters and who was happy to take millions from Frank Hester. If he had taken a different path when he had the chance things may have turned out very differently for him.
There’s another universe where Sunak took on the right, ended the culture wars, exposed the Rwanda scheme as the farce it is and returned to Cameron/May pragmatic conservative politics. I think there might have been conservative votes in an Thatcherite economic pragmatic approach to the EU and a return to the vote blue go green agenda.
It’s tragic he didn’t go down that path.
And why on earth would someone like me vote for that soppy Blairite shite. That’s why they are in the mess they are. They are a social Democrat party pretending to be conservative
You are suggesting they do MORE of that and it will solve their problems. lol
Yeah, but you're more likely to vote for the fascists you so admire like Putin than 'soppy Blairite shite'.
No. I did the compass test and it had me smack bang on the Tory position IF THE TORIES ACTUALLY DID WHAT THEY PROMISE TO DO. But they never do. They lie and obfuscate and raise immigration to insane levels
Eventually voters in their disgust reach for more extreme solutions. That seems to be what is happening here in France
"More extreme solutions" being code for fascism, in your case. But you're just looking for excuses. You admire a fascist imperialist such as Putin because he gives one speech where he criticising woke. That's the earth-sized rabbithole you're fallen down.
The meaning of fascism has become so distorted that it would now describe virtually any democratic western government before the year 2000.
As predicted. The Dems will fall into line. Biden stays. So all this has done is massively damage him - even as he stays the candidate
Helplessly bad. But it’s kinda what they deserve after all their lies for two years - “he’s always stammered”, “he’s amazing in private”, “he’s sharper than ever and wears adult diapers for fun”
Nah. It’s not even 10am the morning after. Biden won’t be running, they just need the last bit of the fix to overlook Harris too before the coup de grace.
That’s what I thought a few hours ago. But after contemplating - and seeing the first signs of wilful self-delusion “he wasn’t that bad really”, “ok he couldn’t form any words for an hour on live TV but he’s got a cold” I am fairly sure they will rationalise themselves to keeping him
If it was EASY to replace him then Yes. He’d be gone tonight. But he apparently wants to stay and so does his wife and all the replacements are problematic
However you may be right. Confronted with the horror of a likely Trump victory they may be galvanised
Its compelling in a macabre way
It's too early to know.
A lot of people in the party have to do a lot of talking with each other.
Maybe we will have a clearer idea by end of the weekend?
They can't just change the ballots at this stage.......the red states won't allow it......
Doesn't matter.
Remember you don't elect the President, you elect electors. The Biden electors would just vote for AN Other in the Electoral College.
And - btw - the ballot probably shouldn't be printed anyway until after the Convention, when someone officially becomes the candidate.
Does that work in Cleveland ?
@rcs? Of course it matters the voters (who are the defacto "electors" because the electors are not going to go against the will of the voters in reality
Let's play this out.
Joe Biden steps down, but is still on the ballot in (say) Colorado.
The official Democrat candidate is now Gretchen Whitmer.
In Colorado, it is still Trump v Biden because the change happened after the deadline for nominations.
It comes to the Electoral College.
Will the electors vote for Gretchen Whitmer or the (has now stepped down) Joe Biden?
In the real world, everyone knows that they would vote for Gretchen Whitmer.
Depends on whether there are requirements in the relevant state for electors to be faithful?
Faithful elector rules only apply in the first round of voting. Bear in mind, too, that it is not FPTP: someone needs to get a majority of delegates.
I'm appreciating the US election primers here, thanks and keep it up.
Sky news showing a visibly angry Rishi Sunak condemning and actually saying the racist slur against him by the Reform volunteer
Apparently the police are now investigating whether an offence has been committed and the Sky report is not going to help Reform with highlighting their pro Putin, racist and misogynistic views
Time for conservatives to wake up and vote for the party to defend it from these vile views and characters
The party you have consistently supported started all this, and now it has got out of hand.
On topic, has anyone tried the plant identifying app SEEK?
My god it’s superb. You point your phone camera at the plant and bingo. It’s just told me I’m staring at “Elegant Sunburst Lichen”
There's quite a few of these now.
I use another one called PlantNet occasionally to confound Mrs Flatlander (she is a walking AI and knows virtually everything by latin name without an app).
There's a similar one for bird calls - BirdNet - which allows you record a song and it tells you (with varying degrees of certainty) what it thinks it is. That also seems to work really well and is probably easier for the AI than trying to decipher a plant photograph.
Bat recording used to be difficult and very expensive but now you just put your ultrasonic recorder out in the field for a few nights and back comes a list of all the species flying past and the times they were active. Much cheaper than having someone sit there all night with an analogue detector (I have had to do this!).
Definitely a quiet AI revolution in some fields.
Still, before long I expect you'll have a portable DNA sequencer...and the AI will be made redundant.
I don't think these attacks on Reform will work. The aim is to try and destroy them by revealing their 'true nature' but it just keeps getting shrugged off by Farage. So the attacks fail, and the by product is that the discourse is normalised. It feels like the overton window shifting.
Yes. There is a fashion on TikTok for young kids in France and Germany to say “yeah I’m a racist so fucking what”
The term has lost a lot of its negative power through overuse and now it has a kind of mildly transgressive chic - which kids love of course. That’s how you shock the elders these days. Say “yeah I’m a racist” on TikTok. Cue heart attack in your parents
Saying “fuck the toreeez” and going to Glastonbury is what people like @Heathener do
Again I don’t believe Britain will be immune from this trend, we are merely behind the curve
Is Britain ahead, behind or on a totally different curve? Time will tell. Brexit and Johnson gave the populist mad right wing nonsense thing a bad name with anyone under 50
My thinking is Brexit has delayed our swerve to the populist right - but not necessarily averted it. We gave people the vote and they vented their anger - that has bought us time
With that time we need to see a proper right wing government emerge that will actually do proper right wing things. Then maybe we can dodge the whole Le Pen shit altogether -
But if that doesn’t happen then it seems inevitable to me that we will follow Italy France Sweden the USA Holland etc
The Dems probably should have selected a VP as similar as possible to Biden [in terms of political viewpoints], just younger. Then they could have easily replaced him. (I don't mean necessarily mean another white man).
They kind of did, except there was a time in 2020 when people thought you had to run to the left to win the nomination so being a careerist Kamala did that. If she'd taken over partway through the term I doubt it would been noticeable in policy.
Sky news showing a visibly angry Rishi Sunak condemning and actually saying the racist slur against him by the Reform volunteer
Apparently the police are now investigating whether an offence has been committed and the Sky report is not going to help Reform with highlighting their pro Putin, racist and misogynistic views
Time for conservatives to wake up and vote for the party to defend it from these vile views and characters
Sunak has never looked more authentic. That is genuine anger - and he is right to speak out as he has. However, this is also the bloke who has spent the last couple of years snuggling up to Reform voters and who was happy to take millions from Frank Hester. If he had taken a different path when he had the chance things may have turned out very differently for him.
There’s another universe where Sunak took on the right, ended the culture wars, exposed the Rwanda scheme as the farce it is and returned to Cameron/May pragmatic conservative politics. I think there might have been conservative votes in an Thatcherite economic pragmatic approach to the EU and a return to the vote blue go green agenda.
It’s tragic he didn’t go down that path.
And why on earth would someone like me vote for that soppy Blairite shite. That’s why they are in the mess they are. They are a social Democrat party pretending to be conservative
You are suggesting they do MORE of that and it will solve their problems. lol
Doing more of the swiveleyed loony nonsense that you would like them to do certainly will not. Conservatives win power when they are closer to the centre than Labour (and yes this even applied under Mrs T and even the twattish Johnson), and not when they are veering off in the direction of Putin appeasing Farage and his BNP fellow travellers.
That was received opinion twenty years ago, even ten years ago, and it was probably valid
I think we are in a new era
I think you hope that that era is a throwback to 1936. Maybe you are tragically right, though I hope not.
I wonder about the idea that you can only win from the centre. I think you can probably only win QUICKLY from the centre, but in the end the electorate will vote Governments out:
- If Corbyn was leader, I think he could have beaten this diminished Tory Party, albeit with a higher LibDem score.
- IDS/Howard may not have been able to force a ConLib coalition in 2010, but any resultant 2010-15 LibLab (there surely still would have been NOM) government could have been beaten by a right wing Tory Party.
- Smith could have beaten Major in 97. So could Kinock.
On topic, has anyone tried the plant identifying app SEEK?
My god it’s superb. You point your phone camera at the plant and bingo. It’s just told me I’m staring at “Elegant Sunburst Lichen”
There's quite a few of these now.
I use another one called PlantNet occasionally to confound Mrs Flatlander (she is a walking AI and knows everything by latin name without an app).
There's a similar one for bird calls - BirdNet - which allows you record a song and it tells you (with varying degrees of certainty) what it thinks it is. That also seems to work really well and is probably easier for the AI than trying to decipher a plant photograph.
Bat recording used to be difficult and very expensive but now you just put your ultrasonic recorder out in the field for a few nights and back comes a list of all the species flying past and the times they were active. Much cheaper than having someone sit there all night with an analogue detector (I have had to do this!).
Definitely a quiet AI revolution in some fields.
Still, before long I expect you'll have a portable DNA sequencer...
I actually had no idea the technology behind this was THAT technology. So please don’t ban me!
I was merely enthusing about an app. It’s such fun lying here in the sun on the ushant cliffs pointing it at everything. Like having a picnic with a world expert botanist
Sky news showing a visibly angry Rishi Sunak condemning and actually saying the racist slur against him by the Reform volunteer
Apparently the police are now investigating whether an offence has been committed and the Sky report is not going to help Reform with highlighting their pro Putin, racist and misogynistic views
Time for conservatives to wake up and vote for the party to defend it from these vile views and characters
Sunak has never looked more authentic. That is genuine anger - and he is right to speak out as he has. However, this is also the bloke who has spent the last couple of years snuggling up to Reform voters and who was happy to take millions from Frank Hester. If he had taken a different path when he had the chance things may have turned out very differently for him.
There’s another universe where Sunak took on the right, ended the culture wars, exposed the Rwanda scheme as the farce it is and returned to Cameron/May pragmatic conservative politics. I think there might have been conservative votes in an Thatcherite economic pragmatic approach to the EU and a return to the vote blue go green agenda.
It’s tragic he didn’t go down that path.
And why on earth would someone like me vote for that soppy Blairite shite. That’s why they are in the mess they are. They are a social Democrat party pretending to be conservative
You are suggesting they do MORE of that and it will solve their problems. lol
Yeah, but you're more likely to vote for the fascists you so admire like Putin than 'soppy Blairite shite'.
No. I did the compass test and it had me smack bang on the Tory position IF THE TORIES ACTUALLY DID WHAT THEY PROMISE TO DO. But they never do. They lie and obfuscate and raise immigration to insane levels
Eventually voters in their disgust reach for more extreme solutions. That seems to be what is happening here in France
"More extreme solutions" being code for fascism, in your case. But you're just looking for excuses. You admire a fascist imperialist such as Putin because he gives one speech where he criticising woke. That's the earth-sized rabbithole you're fallen down.
The meaning of fascism has become so distorted that it would now describe virtually any democratic western government before the year 2000.
Don’t get me started on Lloyd-George and Gladstone, the far right loonies….
On topic, has anyone tried the plant identifying app SEEK?
My god it’s superb. You point your phone camera at the plant and bingo. It’s just told me I’m staring at “Elegant Sunburst Lichen”
Google does the same thing.
My wife planted a selection of perennial wildflowers in our garden last year to attract bees and this year one particular set has grown absolutely massive - about 5-6 feet tall. It was growing so fast and with no sign of flowers that at first I thought it was weeds and I should remove it, but Google said it was Chicory which would bloom big blue flowers by the end of June.
Over the past week big blue flowers have sprouted all over it, coming out exactly as Google said it would.
Just tried Seek to see if it agrees, pointing at the flowers now with the big blue flowers visible, up in the air so as not to catch the other flowers underneath). It at first said it was Dicot, then Great Willowherb, then finally it decided it was Chicory.
Not sure what Seek is supposed to have over Google, but not impressed yet.
The Dems probably should have selected a VP as similar as possible to Biden [in terms of political viewpoints], just younger. Then they could have easily replaced him. (I don't mean necessarily mean another white man).
They kind of did, except there was a time in 2020 when people thought you had to run to the left to win the nomination so being a careerist Kamala did that. If she'd taken over partway through the term I doubt it would been noticeable in policy.
Harris's big selling point was that she was tough on crime and criminals... and then that looked very bad at a time when Democrat supporters were more concerned about the excesses of the criminal justice system.
I don't think these attacks on Reform will work. The aim is to try and destroy them by revealing their 'true nature' but it just keeps getting shrugged off by Farage. So the attacks fail, and the by product is that the discourse is normalised. It feels like the overton window shifting.
Yes. There is a fashion on TikTok for young kids in France and Germany to say “yeah I’m a racist so fucking what”
The term has lost a lot of its negative power through overuse and now it has a kind of mildly transgressive chic - which kids love of course. That’s how you shock the elders these days. Say “yeah I’m a racist” on TikTok. Cue heart attack in your parents
Saying “fuck the toreeez” and going to Glastonbury is what people like @Heathener do
Again I don’t believe Britain will be immune from this trend, we are merely behind the curve
Is Britain ahead, behind or on a totally different curve? Time will tell. Brexit and Johnson gave the populist mad right wing nonsense thing a bad name with anyone under 50
My thinking is Brexit has delayed our swerve to the populist right - but not necessarily averted it. We gave people the vote and they vented their anger - that has bought us time
With that time we need to see a proper right wing government emerge that will actually do proper right wing things. Then maybe we can dodge the whole Le Pen shit altogether -
But if that doesn’t happen then it seems inevitable to me that we will follow Italy France Sweden the USA Holland etc
If you take the view that the Leave vote was motivated, at least in part, due to a portion of the electorate thinking immigration was too high, then, to borrow from T. May, nothing has changed.
This also explains why Reform are getting close to 20% in the polls.
Something tells me that whatever the Labour government will or won't be, it won't be tough on immigration. The question is whether or not the percentage of the population who are hopping mad about immigration tops out at 20% or so max, or continue to rise as problems like the housing crisis grows more acute.
I linked to a FT article that suggested an eightfold rise in middle aged renters by 2030. Figures are slightly suss, but there's already been a 20% rise in the last 11 years.
Sky news showing a visibly angry Rishi Sunak condemning and actually saying the racist slur against him by the Reform volunteer
Apparently the police are now investigating whether an offence has been committed and the Sky report is not going to help Reform with highlighting their pro Putin, racist and misogynistic views
Time for conservatives to wake up and vote for the party to defend it from these vile views and characters
The party you have consistently supported started all this, and now it has got out of hand.
What utter bollocks! Started racist slurs how?
It's not as if you haven't got enough ammunition to use against theTories without making shit up.
On topic, has anyone tried the plant identifying app SEEK?
My god it’s superb. You point your phone camera at the plant and bingo. It’s just told me I’m staring at “Elegant Sunburst Lichen”
There's quite a few of these now.
I use another one called PlantNet occasionally to confound Mrs Flatlander (she is a walking AI and knows everything by latin name without an app).
There's a similar one for bird calls - BirdNet - which allows you record a song and it tells you (with varying degrees of certainty) what it thinks it is. That also seems to work really well and is probably easier for the AI than trying to decipher a plant photograph.
Bat recording used to be difficult and very expensive but now you just put your ultrasonic recorder out in the field for a few nights and back comes a list of all the species flying past and the times they were active. Much cheaper than having someone sit there all night with an analogue detector (I have had to do this!).
Definitely a quiet AI revolution in some fields.
Still, before long I expect you'll have a portable DNA sequencer...
I actually had no idea the technology behind this was THAT technology. So please don’t ban me!
I was merely enthusing about an app. It’s such fun lying here in the sun on the ushant cliffs pointing it at everything. Like having a picnic with a world expert botanist
Man who tries to write about AI has no idea what AI is.
Brexit Britain could benefit from a flight to safety from the political chaos engulfing the US and EU.
This will compensate for all the dynamic wealthy patriots who'll be leaving for Dubai due to Labour wokeness and high taxes.
Oh please don't tell me that you, as an accountant, agree with that twat who wrote in The Guardian that we should be pleased that wealthy people are leaving.
To alter the quote from Blackadder, many Labour voters brains are so minute , that if a hungry cannibal cracked one of their heads open, there wouldn't be enough to cover a small water biscuit.
Yes. On this we agree. Even by the standards of the Guardian, that was one of the stupidest articles I have ever read. “Hooray all the evil wealthy tax payers are leaving. The fact they are leaving and not willing to pay massive taxes PROVES they are evil so we should be glad they’re going”
Where do you even begin with an argument that dumb?
I don't think these attacks on Reform will work. The aim is to try and destroy them by revealing their 'true nature' but it just keeps getting shrugged off by Farage. So the attacks fail, and the by product is that the discourse is normalised. It feels like the overton window shifting.
Yes. There is a fashion on TikTok for young kids in France and Germany to say “yeah I’m a racist so fucking what”
The term has lost a lot of its negative power through overuse and now it has a kind of mildly transgressive chic - which kids love of course. That’s how you shock the elders these days. Say “yeah I’m a racist” on TikTok. Cue heart attack in your parents
Saying “fuck the toreeez” and going to Glastonbury is what people like @Heathener do
Again I don’t believe Britain will be immune from this trend, we are merely behind the curve
Is Britain ahead, behind or on a totally different curve? Time will tell. Brexit and Johnson gave the populist mad right wing nonsense thing a bad name with anyone under 50
My thinking is Brexit has delayed our swerve to the populist right - but not necessarily averted it. We gave people the vote and they vented their anger - that has bought us time
With that time we need to see a proper right wing government emerge that will actually do proper right wing things. Then maybe we can dodge the whole Le Pen shit altogether -
But if that doesn’t happen then it seems inevitable to me that we will follow Italy France Sweden the USA Holland etc
I agree with your basic premise, it’s just that I don’t think they want right wing polices so much as a Government that does what it is told to.
Brexit was a cry of frustration because nobody ever listened to the public saying they wanted to go no further. And then they got disenchanted that it still didn’t happen, and we got 2019.
But I think it has led to volatility meaning Starmer isn’t guaranteed his second term, and the Tories aren’t guaranteed to replace him.
On topic, has anyone tried the plant identifying app SEEK?
My god it’s superb. You point your phone camera at the plant and bingo. It’s just told me I’m staring at “Elegant Sunburst Lichen”
Don't tell me, you can use it in combo with WhatThreeWords ? It was probably designed by aliens that utilised AI enhanced algorithms to analyse lifeforms from a lab leak that took place immediately after that certain nuclear war that you told me would stop me going on my skiing holidays.
Actually, maybe you and I have hit on something. If WhatThreeWords and SEEK have open APIs you could put both through a dashboard to create a mapping of plants throughout the world. High risk of exploitations by aliens or the Chinese, but who knows, I may have given you the idea how to make millions or perhaps the plot line of a highly implausible Dan Browne-Lite page turning thriller!
On topic, has anyone tried the plant identifying app SEEK?
My god it’s superb. You point your phone camera at the plant and bingo. It’s just told me I’m staring at “Elegant Sunburst Lichen”
There's quite a few of these now.
I use another one called PlantNet occasionally to confound Mrs Flatlander (she is a walking AI and knows everything by latin name without an app).
There's a similar one for bird calls - BirdNet - which allows you record a song and it tells you (with varying degrees of certainty) what it thinks it is. That also seems to work really well and is probably easier for the AI than trying to decipher a plant photograph.
Bat recording used to be difficult and very expensive but now you just put your ultrasonic recorder out in the field for a few nights and back comes a list of all the species flying past and the times they were active. Much cheaper than having someone sit there all night with an analogue detector (I have had to do this!).
Definitely a quiet AI revolution in some fields.
Still, before long I expect you'll have a portable DNA sequencer...
I actually had no idea the technology behind this was THAT technology. So please don’t ban me!
I was merely enthusing about an app. It’s such fun lying here in the sun on the ushant cliffs pointing it at everything. Like having a picnic with a world expert botanist
I don't think I'd call these kinds of things AI (at least for how I assume they work) although I wouldn't be at all surprised if 'AI' is used in the marketing blurb
I don't think these attacks on Reform will work. The aim is to try and destroy them by revealing their 'true nature' but it just keeps getting shrugged off by Farage. So the attacks fail, and the by product is that the discourse is normalised. It feels like the overton window shifting.
Yes. There is a fashion on TikTok for young kids in France and Germany to say “yeah I’m a racist so fucking what”
The term has lost a lot of its negative power through overuse and now it has a kind of mildly transgressive chic - which kids love of course. That’s how you shock the elders these days. Say “yeah I’m a racist” on TikTok. Cue heart attack in your parents
Saying “fuck the toreeez” and going to Glastonbury is what people like @Heathener do
Again I don’t believe Britain will be immune from this trend, we are merely behind the curve
Is Britain ahead, behind or on a totally different curve? Time will tell. Brexit and Johnson gave the populist mad right wing nonsense thing a bad name with anyone under 50
My thinking is Brexit has delayed our swerve to the populist right - but not necessarily averted it. We gave people the vote and they vented their anger - that has bought us time
With that time we need to see a proper right wing government emerge that will actually do proper right wing things. Then maybe we can dodge the whole Le Pen shit altogether -
But if that doesn’t happen then it seems inevitable to me that we will follow Italy France Sweden the USA Holland etc
If you take the view that the Leave vote was motivated, at least in part, due to a portion of the electorate thinking immigration was too high, then, to borrow from T. May, nothing has changed.
This also explains why Reform are getting close to 20% in the polls.
Something tells me that whatever the Labour government will or won't be, it won't be tough on immigration. The question is whether or not the percentage of the population who are hopping mad about immigration tops out at 20% or so max, or continue to rise as problems like the housing crisis grows more acute.
I linked to a FT article that suggested an eightfold rise in middle aged renters by 2030. Figures are slightly suss, but there's already been a 20% rise in the last 11 years.
Build more houses and the housing crisis will dissipate.
Our population is growing at a pretty staid percentage not a massive one, demographic changes mean we need more housing with or without migration and migration obviously mean we need even more, but we need more either way.
The people who are absurd are those who want mass migration but no construction and no reform to our planning system as they support NIMBYism - that is a recipe for disaster.
But fix planning, let people build houses, and I couldn't care less how many migrants come to this country.
Travelled from Totnes to London Paddington this morning - and in nearly three hours of train travel, never saw a single political poster.
What election?
I didn't see any posters in Southend when I was there a few weeks ago. Loads of Lib Dem posters on the lawns of the posh houses between Woking and Guildford.
On another note, we (in the Woking area) were inundated with moths last night.
It is quite entertaining to observe how Nigel Farage has the ability to drive people in to a total incoherant frenzy. He manages to make his opponents mad without actually doing anything significant. It isn't like he is calling his opponents 'scum', or saying that all debate should be stopped as it is 'hatred', as left wing politicians have done in the past few years. Regarding Reform supporters, it isn't like they are pulling down statues, vandalising ancient monuments, blocking ambulances etc. This all feels like the usual thing of a free pass for the far left but impossibly high standards applied to anyone on the 'far right'.
I loath the far left, but it may need pointing out to you that the far right,even just in this country, has set rather a lot more dangerous historical precedents than just pulling down statues. Fascism needs calling out. Yes there are lots of idiots who want to pretend that label doesn't apply to Farage, but the cap fits him very well.
Farage sees himself as doing a public service for democracy by representing a swathe of public opinion that the elite find repulsive. He brings it in to the political mainstream. That is what he did with Brexit and that is what he is doing now. Ultimately you have to choose between this and an actual far right/fascist situation. I would say though in addition that 'fascism' has really lost its meaning, it seems more like a rhetorical tool for debating purposes, if you can be branded a fascist then it is a red card, you are out of the game in disgrace. It all gets a bit tiring.
Brexit Britain could benefit from a flight to safety from the political chaos engulfing the US and EU.
This will compensate for all the dynamic wealthy patriots who'll be leaving for Dubai due to Labour wokeness and high taxes.
Oh please don't tell me that you, as an accountant, agree with that twat who wrote in The Guardian that we should be pleased that wealthy people are leaving.
To alter the quote from Blackadder, many Labour voters brains are so minute , that if a hungry cannibal cracked one of their heads open, there wouldn't be enough to cover a small water biscuit.
Yes. On this we agree. Even by the standards of the Guardian, that was one of the stupidest articles I have ever read. “Hooray all the evil wealthy tax payers are leaving. The fact they are leaving and not willing to pay massive taxes PROVES they are evil so we should be glad they’re going”
Where do you even begin with an argument that dumb?
Don't get sick. Don't get old. As a certain Welsh Windbag said.
But that was said of the Tories. Labour's Britain is going to be a hell-hole of diminishing services if that "Eat the Rich!" mentality is as popular amongst the new intake as seems likely.
Travelled from Totnes to London Paddington this morning - and in nearly three hours of train travel, never saw a single political poster.
What election?
I didn't see any posters in Southend when I was there a few weeks ago. Loads of Lib Dem posters on the lawns of the posh houses between Woking and Guildford.
On another note, we (in the Woking area) were inundated with moths last night.
Comments
(b) What is the mechanism for keeping Trump off the ballot?
There are frogs downstream of Glastonbury who are not as high as you are right now.
I think we are in a new era
His full name was apparently:
Paul Ludwig Hans Anton von Beneckendorff de Pfeffel Hindenburg
Furthermore the environment and climate change is an issue strategically suited to conservatives. Again an issue where Thatcher took an early lead.
It doesn't matter who is on the ballot in November in individual States, so long as there is a Democrat. Remember: it is electors who go to the electoral college. Whether Biden is on the ballot or AN Other, they can still vote for the official candidate (Whitmer or Newsom or whoever) in the electoral college.
The GOP elite would then have to try and fiddle the convention to replace Trump with a more establishment candidate while avoiding the MAGA crowd storming the stage, much as the Democratic elite might have to replace Biden at their convention while trying to keep party unity. 1968 might look like a walk in the park compared to what this summer's conventions may end up looking like
Eventually voters in their disgust reach for more extreme solutions. That seems to be what is happening here in France
Assuming Trump is not in New York State, you would need to have a State extradite him to New York to serve his sentence. I simply cannot see the Florida Governor doing such a thing.
Occasionally some of the comments on PB are so stupid, it *almost makes you wonder* if it is actually possible that some contributors are so totally lacking in analytical understanding that they could be as dumb as, say, @Farooq.
The term has lost a lot of its negative power through overuse and now it has a kind of mildly transgressive chic - which kids love of course. That’s how you shock the elders these days. Say “yeah I’m a racist” on TikTok. Cue heart attack in your parents
Saying “fuck the toreeez” and going to Glastonbury is what people like @Heathener do
Again I don’t believe Britain will be immune from this trend, we are merely behind the curve
Graun feed says Edinburgh Council has opened an emergency office.
Council webpage: https://www.edinburgh.gov.uk/news/article/14017/emergency-facility-for-lost-and-delayed-postal-votes
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c8vdpvqe24jo
Joe Biden steps down, but is still on the ballot in (say) Colorado.
The official Democrat candidate is now Gretchen Whitmer.
In Colorado, it is still Trump v Biden because the change happened after the deadline for nominations.
It comes to the Electoral College.
Will the electors vote for Gretchen Whitmer or the (has now stepped down) Joe Biden?
In the real world, everyone knows that they would vote for Gretchen Whitmer.
The chair of the RNC publicly refused to condemn Jan 6th; the Vice Chair is Lara Trump. Both were elected unopposed.
Everyone seems to imagine we're still back in the 1960s.
Who is this mythical "GOP elite" ?
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R-AChxDPCIm2kpSJrbwr4pzE_auzeYm__hZukaloLow/edit?usp=sharing
It has an editable section for results, so anyone can fill in the grey section on the RESULTS INPUT tab.
Constituencies are in expected time order, the Winner by "Expected declaration time by model" will compare the result against 8 or so different models. If anyone wants to fill in results please do so - if anyone has some sort of results xml, json or live rss (Or anything like that jazz) and knows how to link to individual results within please let me know
But what if Trump cannot or does not run? As @rcs1000 says, Trump is not without his own issues - both legal and (questionably) medical. I've long assumed that if Trump was jailed it would turn a proportion of the voting public against him. It would be unacceptable for a convicted felon to be President and more so if he were to be jailed. I've also assumed that a medical issue could prevent a run for White House.
The question that I've been unable to answer is what if Trump quits the race for no other reason than the fact that Biden has already quit the race? Trump seeks revenge upon those that robbed him of the White House. The biggest culprit is Joe Biden. That's why he's running. Yet if Biden is removed from the field of play, would Trump continue his own campaign? Going up against Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden is different to Kamala Harris. Clinton and Biden have natural supporters and are giants within American politics. Harris isn't and doesn't have a group of natural supporters. She should - in theory - be easy to beat but there's no 'win' for Trump in that. The win for Trump would be to take on the giants, a Clinton or a Biden, and slay them as the tough guy.
So what if Trump cuts his losses and runs? Biden's dropped out or been replaced. Why should Trump continue in the race. And in that situation - or any situation (such as being jailed or a medical issue) - who do the GOP choose? It strikes me that the Dems aren't the only party that find themselves in a pickle. Who comes after Trump? What iteration of the GOP emerges? The Bible Belt/January 6/Tea Party iteration or the pragmatic and reasoned GOP that looks a little more like that of old?
My god it’s superb. You point your phone camera at the plant and bingo. It’s just told me I’m staring at “Elegant Sunburst Lichen”
Trump being Trump though has done neither
Wow
I found one that was useful for identifying ragwort but it was a pay to play one after a free trial. So this might be good, thanks
To alter the quote from Blackadder, many Labour voters brains are so minute , that if a hungry cannibal cracked one of their heads open, there wouldn't be enough to cover a small water biscuit.
I use another one called PlantNet occasionally to confound Mrs Flatlander (she is a walking AI and knows virtually everything by latin name without an app).
There's a similar one for bird calls - BirdNet - which allows you record a song and it tells you (with varying degrees of certainty) what it thinks it is. That also seems to work really well and is probably easier for the AI than trying to decipher a plant photograph.
Bat recording used to be difficult and very expensive but now you just put your ultrasonic recorder out in the field for a few nights and back comes a list of all the species flying past and the times they were active. Much cheaper than having someone sit there all night with an analogue detector (I have had to do this!).
Definitely a quiet AI revolution in some fields.
Still, before long I expect you'll have a portable DNA sequencer...and the AI will be made redundant.
With that time we need to see a proper right wing government emerge that will actually do proper right wing things. Then maybe we can dodge the whole Le Pen shit altogether -
But if that doesn’t happen then it seems inevitable to me that we will follow Italy France Sweden the USA Holland etc
It isn't that good. It comes up with a lot of 'can't identify' or a very generic name, almost to the level of 'its a plant'
Sometimes however it does work well, say 50%.
- If Corbyn was leader, I think he could have beaten this diminished Tory Party, albeit with a higher LibDem score.
- IDS/Howard may not have been able to force a ConLib coalition in 2010, but any resultant 2010-15 LibLab (there surely still would have been NOM) government could have been beaten by a right wing Tory Party.
- Smith could have beaten Major in 97. So could Kinock.
I was merely enthusing about an app. It’s such fun lying here in the sun on the ushant cliffs pointing it at everything. Like having a picnic with a world expert botanist
My wife planted a selection of perennial wildflowers in our garden last year to attract bees and this year one particular set has grown absolutely massive - about 5-6 feet tall. It was growing so fast and with no sign of flowers that at first I thought it was weeds and I should remove it, but Google said it was Chicory which would bloom big blue flowers by the end of June.
Over the past week big blue flowers have sprouted all over it, coming out exactly as Google said it would.
Just tried Seek to see if it agrees, pointing at the flowers now with the big blue flowers visible, up in the air so as not to catch the other flowers underneath). It at first said it was Dicot, then Great Willowherb, then finally it decided it was Chicory.
Not sure what Seek is supposed to have over Google, but not impressed yet.
This also explains why Reform are getting close to 20% in the polls.
Something tells me that whatever the Labour government will or won't be, it won't be tough on immigration. The question is whether or not the percentage of the population who are hopping mad about immigration tops out at 20% or so max, or continue to rise as problems like the housing crisis grows more acute.
I linked to a FT article that suggested an eightfold rise in middle aged renters by 2030. Figures are slightly suss, but there's already been a 20% rise in the last 11 years.
It's not as if you haven't got enough ammunition to use against theTories without making shit up.
Where do you even begin with an argument that dumb?
Ethnic minority voting intention.
Annoyingly it doesn't have the 2019 swings or implied results in anywhere.
Brexit was a cry of frustration because nobody ever listened to the public saying they wanted to go no further. And then they got disenchanted that it still didn’t happen, and we got 2019.
But I think it has led to volatility meaning Starmer isn’t guaranteed his second term, and the Tories aren’t guaranteed to replace him.
Actually, maybe you and I have hit on something. If WhatThreeWords and SEEK have open APIs you could put both through a dashboard to create a mapping of plants throughout the world. High risk of exploitations by aliens or the Chinese, but who knows, I may have given you the idea how to make millions or perhaps the plot line of a highly implausible Dan Browne-Lite page turning thriller!
What election?
Our population is growing at a pretty staid percentage not a massive one, demographic changes mean we need more housing with or without migration and migration obviously mean we need even more, but we need more either way.
The people who are absurd are those who want mass migration but no construction and no reform to our planning system as they support NIMBYism - that is a recipe for disaster.
But fix planning, let people build houses, and I couldn't care less how many migrants come to this country.
On another note, we (in the Woking area) were inundated with moths last night.
But that was said of the Tories. Labour's Britain is going to be a hell-hole of diminishing services if that "Eat the Rich!" mentality is as popular amongst the new intake as seems likely.
It ought to be standard across the country.