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Northern Ireland [Westminster] Constituencies : Part Two (Key Seats) – politicalbetting.com

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  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,772
    edited June 28
    Nunu5 said:

    Wow. Big mistake from Starmer, says he won't continue with 25% tax free allowance for pensions

    They have clarified and said it won't be changed. Such a change would be devastating. If it were removed 25% of all pension funds of people over 55 would be withdrawn instantly unless the change was made instantly and without notice and that would also cause havoc.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,682

    https://x.com/politlcsuk/status/1806721294743785513

    @PolitlcsUK
    🚨 NEW: Reform UK is now three points ahead of the Tories in the latest poll

    Labour: 38% (-1)
    Reform UK: 21% (+1)
    Conservatives: 18% (-1)
    Lib Dems: 11% (-1)
    Greens: 7% (+1)
    SNP: 2% (-1)
    Other: 3% (+2)

    Via @WStoneInsight, on 26-27 June
    2,012 adults
    Changes w/ 19-20 June

    An Express poll though Labour also now doing worse than Corbyn 2017 with them too on voteshare so not a huge triumph for Starmer either.

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,846
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    ...

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Brexit Britain could benefit from a flight to safety from the political chaos engulfing the US and EU.

    This will compensate for all the dynamic wealthy patriots who'll be leaving for Dubai due to Labour wokeness and high taxes.
    Oh please don't tell me that you, as an accountant, agree with that twat who wrote in The Guardian that we should be pleased that wealthy people are leaving.

    To alter the quote from Blackadder, many Labour voters brains are so minute , that if a hungry cannibal cracked one of their heads open, there wouldn't be enough to cover a small water biscuit.
    Yes. On this we agree. Even by the standards of the Guardian, that was one of the stupidest articles I have ever read. “Hooray all the evil wealthy tax payers are leaving. The fact they are leaving and not willing to pay massive taxes PROVES they are evil so we should be glad they’re going”

    Where do you even begin with an argument that dumb?
    Don't get sick. Don't get old. As a certain Welsh Windbag said.

    But that was said of the Tories. Labour's Britain is going to be a hell-hole of diminishing services if that "Eat the Rich!" mentality is as popular amongst the new intake as seems likely.
    My worry is not that they’re all secret or even open Marxists. They’re not clever enough for that

    And that is my worry. That they are dumb as rocks. All of them. At least you knew Blair was clever and perceptive and Brown had a massive if weird brain

    These guys? Sometimes I wonder about starmer. I mean he must be bright because he made it to DPP. I wish he’d evidence it a little more. Yet he doesn’t have a favourite novel or poem. He never dreams. He speaks of himself in the third person. He has zero sense of humour and no idea of “telling a story”. If he’s intelligent it must be a highly narrow kind of intelligence
    Says in Starmer's biography his A level grades were 2 Bs and a C. Now admittedly that included Maths and a Science which are more difficult and overall still clearly above average but does suggest he is hardly brain of Britain either.

    Intelligence wise as PM he will probably be another John Major or Jim Callaghan with a bit more metropolitan flair but not a great cultural hinterland either
    You really are an educational elitist.

    Who cares if Mr Thickie Starmer is thicker than Mr Clever Sunak? Starmer has graduated from the school of hard knocks as a child of a tradesman.
    If you believe the last sentence I have a bridge to sell you. And it is Sir Thickie if you don't mind.

    He actually ended up graduating from the rather featherbedded St Edmund Hall Oxford via the perfectly respectable Leeds University. Essentially he is middle class by any measure, but the dinosaur class obsessed Labour Party want him to be seen as a working class lad. Laughable.
    Excuse me. The class obsessed poster outraged at Starmer's mediocre higher education performance was not a member of the Labour party but a former Conservative councillor from Epping Forest.
    Yes, but you've got to give him a bit of joy ffs!

    I don't wish to be cruel, but seeing HYUFD pass judgement on people's youth-time educational attainment as though that were the only indicator of intelligence, reminds me of a fat bloke in our pub who goes on about the England players not being fit enough.
    I am not running to be PM, nor is the fat bloke in the England team. That is the job they are highly paid for.

    I also never said Starmer was thick but he is clearly not going to be in the top rank of our PMs by intelligence. Intelligence isn't the be all and end all for PMs, judgement, empathy and competence matters too but it helps
    You define intelligence by A level results 35 years ago? Even worse than IQ testing.
    Very true. Look at our Leon; he was thrown out of school for making stuff up, with just a swimming certificate by way of paper qualifications, and now he has an IQ of 6000.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,569
    glw said:

    Foxy said:

    glw said:

    .

    Leon said:

    My worry is not that they’re all secret or even open Marxists. They’re not clever enough for that

    And that is my worry. That they are dumb as rocks. All of them. At least you knew Blair was clever and perceptive and Brown had a massive if weird brain

    These guys? Sometimes I wonder about starmer. I mean he must be bright because he made it to DPP. I wish he’d evidence it a little more. Yet he doesn’t have a favourite novel or poem. He never dreams. He speaks of himself in the third person. He has zero sense of humour and no idea of “telling a story”. If he’s intelligent it must be a highly narrow kind of intelligence

    Compared to Blair, Brown, Straw, Cunningham, Cook, Mowlem, Beckett, Darling, Dewar, Reid, Mandelson, Harman and the rest the current Labour front bench appears to be lacking intellectuals and political heavyweights.

    Maybe they will surprise me, but I can just as easily believe they'll be even worse than I expect.
    Who had heard of any of them before they were in government?

    Wasn't Meacher the only one in the cabinet with government experience in 1997?
    They had mostly been in John Smith's shadow cabinet, so they'd been tearing strips of their Tory opponents for years by 1997. Would every voter know them? No. But I expect most voters back them could name more of them than voters could of the current lot, even if it's largely due to the changed media landscape.

    Nobody in 1997 really queried whether Labour were up to the job. They were seen as a serious and qualified group of people.
    No they were quite widely dismissed as having no experience of government.

    Though considering the shambles that we have had for the last decade with people experienced in government, no experience may well be a major step up!
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,320

    ...

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Brexit Britain could benefit from a flight to safety from the political chaos engulfing the US and EU.

    This will compensate for all the dynamic wealthy patriots who'll be leaving for Dubai due to Labour wokeness and high taxes.
    Oh please don't tell me that you, as an accountant, agree with that twat who wrote in The Guardian that we should be pleased that wealthy people are leaving.

    To alter the quote from Blackadder, many Labour voters brains are so minute , that if a hungry cannibal cracked one of their heads open, there wouldn't be enough to cover a small water biscuit.
    Yes. On this we agree. Even by the standards of the Guardian, that was one of the stupidest articles I have ever read. “Hooray all the evil wealthy tax payers are leaving. The fact they are leaving and not willing to pay massive taxes PROVES they are evil so we should be glad they’re going”

    Where do you even begin with an argument that dumb?
    Don't get sick. Don't get old. As a certain Welsh Windbag said.

    But that was said of the Tories. Labour's Britain is going to be a hell-hole of diminishing services if that "Eat the Rich!" mentality is as popular amongst the new intake as seems likely.
    My worry is not that they’re all secret or even open Marxists. They’re not clever enough for that

    And that is my worry. That they are dumb as rocks. All of them. At least you knew Blair was clever and perceptive and Brown had a massive if weird brain

    These guys? Sometimes I wonder about starmer. I mean he must be bright because he made it to DPP. I wish he’d evidence it a little more. Yet he doesn’t have a favourite novel or poem. He never dreams. He speaks of himself in the third person. He has zero sense of humour and no idea of “telling a story”. If he’s intelligent it must be a highly narrow kind of intelligence
    Says in Starmer's biography his A level grades were 2 Bs and a C. Now admittedly that included Maths and a Science which are more difficult and overall still clearly above average but does suggest he is hardly brain of Britain either.

    Intelligence wise as PM he will probably be another John Major or Jim Callaghan with a bit more metropolitan flair but not a great cultural hinterland either
    You really are an educational elitist.

    Who cares if Mr Thickie Starmer is thicker than Mr Clever Sunak? Starmer has graduated from the school of hard knocks as a child of a tradesman.
    If you believe the last sentence I have a bridge to sell you. And it is Sir Thickie if you don't mind.

    He actually ended up graduating from the rather featherbedded St Edmund Hall Oxford via the perfectly respectable Leeds University. Essentially he is middle class by any measure, but the dinosaur class obsessed Labour Party want him to be seen as a working class lad. Laughable.
    Excuse me. The class obsessed poster outraged at Starmer's mediocre higher education performance was not a member of the Labour party but a former Conservative councillor from Epping Forest.
    Yes, but you've got to give him a bit of joy ffs!

    I don't wish to be cruel, but seeing HYUFD pass judgement on people's youth-time educational attainment as though that were the only indicator of intelligence, reminds me of a fat bloke in our pub who goes on about the England players not being fit enough.
    I wish I'd known you could read Law after doing Science A levels.
    Whatever else you read at Uni, you chose....wisely.
    Back in the day I knew of a real w***** who read politics at Cardiff. What f****' use was politics?

    Wastrel degrees like Sociology, Politics, Philosophy and Classics all need to be banned by the new Conservative Government next Friday as irrelevant to modern living.

    I wish I could have read something practically useful like Media Studies. Back in my day many non-Law and non-Stem degrees were academic nonsense!
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,963
    edited June 28
    rcs1000 said:

    biggles said:

    Leon said:

    Jonathan said:

    Leon said:

    darkage said:

    I don't think these attacks on Reform will work. The aim is to try and destroy them by revealing their 'true nature' but it just keeps getting shrugged off by Farage. So the attacks fail, and the by product is that the discourse is normalised. It feels like the overton window shifting.

    Yes. There is a fashion on TikTok for young kids in France and Germany to say “yeah I’m a racist so fucking what”

    The term has lost a lot of its negative power through overuse and now it has a kind of mildly transgressive chic - which kids love of course. That’s how you shock the elders these days. Say “yeah I’m a racist” on TikTok. Cue heart attack in your parents

    Saying “fuck the toreeez” and going to Glastonbury is what people like @Heathener do

    Again I don’t believe Britain will be immune from this trend, we are merely behind the curve
    Is Britain ahead, behind or on a totally different curve? Time will tell. Brexit and Johnson gave the populist mad right wing nonsense thing a bad name with anyone under 50
    My thinking is Brexit has delayed our swerve to the populist right - but not necessarily averted it. We gave people the vote and they vented their anger - that has bought us time

    With that time we need to see a proper right wing government emerge that will actually do proper right wing things. Then maybe we can dodge the whole Le Pen shit altogether -

    But if that doesn’t happen then it seems inevitable to me that we will follow Italy France Sweden the USA Holland etc
    I agree with your basic premise, it’s just that I don’t think they want right wing polices so much as a Government that does what it is told to.

    Brexit was a cry of frustration because nobody ever listened to the public saying they wanted to go no further. And then they got disenchanted that it still didn’t happen, and we got 2019.

    But I think it has led to volatility meaning Starmer isn’t guaranteed his second term, and the Tories aren’t guaranteed to replace him.
    Boris Johnson fucked up in setting the post-Brexit income thresholds too low, which resulted in far more people coming than was anticipated.

    His successors were then slow - very slow - to recognize this.

    I find it astonishing that it wasn't recognized by either Johnson or Sunak (and his Home Secretaries) that numbers coming were way above forecast, and were resulting in much higher net migration than was the case when the UK was part of the EU.

    And here Starmer is a very lucky General.

    Firstly, higher income thresholds were put in place for visas. Now, you can argue that £38,700 is still too low (or alternatively that it is far too simplistic, given that a 21 year old earning £39k is very different to a 45 year old), but it is still almost 40% above the old threshold. That means that a very substantial number of people who were eligible for visas before, are no longer eligible. And it is Starmer who who will see the benefit.

    Secondly, a large chunk of the increase in net immigration in the last three years has been student numbers. We've gone from 180k student (and dependent) visas issued a year to something like 600k. Based on experience most of those people will go home at the end of their courses. But there is an approximately three year period during which the number of students (and dependents) resident in the UK is rising fast. Once you get to the 3 or 4 year anniversary - and particularly if it is matched by smaller numbers of students coming - then the net impact falls dramatically.

    Starmer, if he does absolutely nothing, will be Prime Minister, when net immigration numbers fall quite significantly. Because maths.
    Are there any facts or figures on what percentage of migrants are coming on the income threshold visas?

    The student one I think is ripe for abuse and I am sceptical that most will go home after three years, because actually a very big percentage already stayed and that was before a surge in people coming from third world nations who have no desire to return home.

    Where my wife works the firm regular uses agency staff and the agency staff are almost always migrants who barely speak English and many of them have their phones playing university lectures on zoom in the background while they're getting on with their job. I don't think that's someone especially interested in the lecture.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,484
    edited June 28
    "This is Castle Carey."

    London gets off.

    There's a festival or something going on. Multiple cops on the platform. Must be a rough one.

    EDIT: There's a huge line of portaloos. Last chance for a shit 'til Monday....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,682

    ...

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Brexit Britain could benefit from a flight to safety from the political chaos engulfing the US and EU.

    This will compensate for all the dynamic wealthy patriots who'll be leaving for Dubai due to Labour wokeness and high taxes.
    Oh please don't tell me that you, as an accountant, agree with that twat who wrote in The Guardian that we should be pleased that wealthy people are leaving.

    To alter the quote from Blackadder, many Labour voters brains are so minute , that if a hungry cannibal cracked one of their heads open, there wouldn't be enough to cover a small water biscuit.
    Yes. On this we agree. Even by the standards of the Guardian, that was one of the stupidest articles I have ever read. “Hooray all the evil wealthy tax payers are leaving. The fact they are leaving and not willing to pay massive taxes PROVES they are evil so we should be glad they’re going”

    Where do you even begin with an argument that dumb?
    Don't get sick. Don't get old. As a certain Welsh Windbag said.

    But that was said of the Tories. Labour's Britain is going to be a hell-hole of diminishing services if that "Eat the Rich!" mentality is as popular amongst the new intake as seems likely.
    My worry is not that they’re all secret or even open Marxists. They’re not clever enough for that

    And that is my worry. That they are dumb as rocks. All of them. At least you knew Blair was clever and perceptive and Brown had a massive if weird brain

    These guys? Sometimes I wonder about starmer. I mean he must be bright because he made it to DPP. I wish he’d evidence it a little more. Yet he doesn’t have a favourite novel or poem. He never dreams. He speaks of himself in the third person. He has zero sense of humour and no idea of “telling a story”. If he’s intelligent it must be a highly narrow kind of intelligence
    Says in Starmer's biography his A level grades were 2 Bs and a C. Now admittedly that included Maths and a Science which are more difficult and overall still clearly above average but does suggest he is hardly brain of Britain either.

    Intelligence wise as PM he will probably be another John Major or Jim Callaghan with a bit more metropolitan flair but not a great cultural hinterland either
    You really are an educational elitist.

    Who cares if Mr Thickie Starmer is thicker than Mr Clever Sunak? Starmer has graduated from the school of hard knocks as a child of a tradesman.
    If you believe the last sentence I have a bridge to sell you. And it is Sir Thickie if you don't mind.

    He actually ended up graduating from the rather featherbedded St Edmund Hall Oxford via the perfectly respectable Leeds University. Essentially he is middle class by any measure, but the dinosaur class obsessed Labour Party want him to be seen as a working class lad. Laughable.
    Excuse me. The class obsessed poster outraged at Starmer's mediocre higher education performance was not a member of the Labour party but a former Conservative councillor from Epping Forest.
    Yes, but you've got to give him a bit of joy ffs!

    I don't wish to be cruel, but seeing HYUFD pass judgement on people's youth-time educational attainment as though that were the only indicator of intelligence, reminds me of a fat bloke in our pub who goes on about the England players not being fit enough.
    I wish I'd known you could read Law after doing Science A levels.
    Whatever else you read at Uni, you chose....wisely.
    Back in the day I knew of a real w***** who read politics at Cardiff. What f****' use was politics?

    Wastrel degrees like Sociology, Politics, Philosophy and Classics all need to be banned by the new Conservative Government next Friday as irrelevant to modern living.

    I wish I could have read something practically useful like Media Studies. Back in my day many non-Law and non-Stem degrees were academic nonsense!
    Boris would correctly storm No 10 and I would join him if a newly re elected PM Sunak tried to ban Classics and Philosophy degrees (the chances of that though now being near zero)
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 5,877
    Mavis Staples is a phenomenon

    She's eighty four years old and has been performing for more than seventy of them

    This is her latest track, Worthy, released ten days ago

    https://youtu.be/9wYU_4xDn8Y

    I love it
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,320
    edited June 28
    ...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,682
    IanB2 said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    ...

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Brexit Britain could benefit from a flight to safety from the political chaos engulfing the US and EU.

    This will compensate for all the dynamic wealthy patriots who'll be leaving for Dubai due to Labour wokeness and high taxes.
    Oh please don't tell me that you, as an accountant, agree with that twat who wrote in The Guardian that we should be pleased that wealthy people are leaving.

    To alter the quote from Blackadder, many Labour voters brains are so minute , that if a hungry cannibal cracked one of their heads open, there wouldn't be enough to cover a small water biscuit.
    Yes. On this we agree. Even by the standards of the Guardian, that was one of the stupidest articles I have ever read. “Hooray all the evil wealthy tax payers are leaving. The fact they are leaving and not willing to pay massive taxes PROVES they are evil so we should be glad they’re going”

    Where do you even begin with an argument that dumb?
    Don't get sick. Don't get old. As a certain Welsh Windbag said.

    But that was said of the Tories. Labour's Britain is going to be a hell-hole of diminishing services if that "Eat the Rich!" mentality is as popular amongst the new intake as seems likely.
    My worry is not that they’re all secret or even open Marxists. They’re not clever enough for that

    And that is my worry. That they are dumb as rocks. All of them. At least you knew Blair was clever and perceptive and Brown had a massive if weird brain

    These guys? Sometimes I wonder about starmer. I mean he must be bright because he made it to DPP. I wish he’d evidence it a little more. Yet he doesn’t have a favourite novel or poem. He never dreams. He speaks of himself in the third person. He has zero sense of humour and no idea of “telling a story”. If he’s intelligent it must be a highly narrow kind of intelligence
    Says in Starmer's biography his A level grades were 2 Bs and a C. Now admittedly that included Maths and a Science which are more difficult and overall still clearly above average but does suggest he is hardly brain of Britain either.

    Intelligence wise as PM he will probably be another John Major or Jim Callaghan with a bit more metropolitan flair but not a great cultural hinterland either
    You really are an educational elitist.

    Who cares if Mr Thickie Starmer is thicker than Mr Clever Sunak? Starmer has graduated from the school of hard knocks as a child of a tradesman.
    If you believe the last sentence I have a bridge to sell you. And it is Sir Thickie if you don't mind.

    He actually ended up graduating from the rather featherbedded St Edmund Hall Oxford via the perfectly respectable Leeds University. Essentially he is middle class by any measure, but the dinosaur class obsessed Labour Party want him to be seen as a working class lad. Laughable.
    Excuse me. The class obsessed poster outraged at Starmer's mediocre higher education performance was not a member of the Labour party but a former Conservative councillor from Epping Forest.
    Yes, but you've got to give him a bit of joy ffs!

    I don't wish to be cruel, but seeing HYUFD pass judgement on people's youth-time educational attainment as though that were the only indicator of intelligence, reminds me of a fat bloke in our pub who goes on about the England players not being fit enough.
    I am not running to be PM, nor is the fat bloke in the England team. That is the job they are highly paid for.

    I also never said Starmer was thick but he is clearly not going to be in the top rank of our PMs by intelligence. Intelligence isn't the be all and end all for PMs, judgement, empathy and competence matters too but it helps
    You define intelligence by A level results 35 years ago? Even worse than IQ testing.
    Very true. Look at our Leon; he was thrown out of school for making stuff up, with just a swimming certificate by way of paper qualifications, and now he has an IQ of 6000.
    Leon went to UCL from a Hereford comp and is now a zillionaire globally renowned author and travel writer, self made man of the people is Leon
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,320
    edited June 28
    ... deleted, meant to be a swipe at HY and not MattW. Fat finger syndrome, sorry
  • Nunu5Nunu5 Posts: 963
    Omg this poll is in line with pp
    Lab: 38%
    Ref: 21%
    Con: 18%
    LD: 11%
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,484

    ...

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Brexit Britain could benefit from a flight to safety from the political chaos engulfing the US and EU.

    This will compensate for all the dynamic wealthy patriots who'll be leaving for Dubai due to Labour wokeness and high taxes.
    Oh please don't tell me that you, as an accountant, agree with that twat who wrote in The Guardian that we should be pleased that wealthy people are leaving.

    To alter the quote from Blackadder, many Labour voters brains are so minute , that if a hungry cannibal cracked one of their heads open, there wouldn't be enough to cover a small water biscuit.
    Yes. On this we agree. Even by the standards of the Guardian, that was one of the stupidest articles I have ever read. “Hooray all the evil wealthy tax payers are leaving. The fact they are leaving and not willing to pay massive taxes PROVES they are evil so we should be glad they’re going”

    Where do you even begin with an argument that dumb?
    Don't get sick. Don't get old. As a certain Welsh Windbag said.

    But that was said of the Tories. Labour's Britain is going to be a hell-hole of diminishing services if that "Eat the Rich!" mentality is as popular amongst the new intake as seems likely.
    My worry is not that they’re all secret or even open Marxists. They’re not clever enough for that

    And that is my worry. That they are dumb as rocks. All of them. At least you knew Blair was clever and perceptive and Brown had a massive if weird brain

    These guys? Sometimes I wonder about starmer. I mean he must be bright because he made it to DPP. I wish he’d evidence it a little more. Yet he doesn’t have a favourite novel or poem. He never dreams. He speaks of himself in the third person. He has zero sense of humour and no idea of “telling a story”. If he’s intelligent it must be a highly narrow kind of intelligence
    Says in Starmer's biography his A level grades were 2 Bs and a C. Now admittedly that included Maths and a Science which are more difficult and overall still clearly above average but does suggest he is hardly brain of Britain either.

    Intelligence wise as PM he will probably be another John Major or Jim Callaghan with a bit more metropolitan flair but not a great cultural hinterland either
    You really are an educational elitist.

    Who cares if Mr Thickie Starmer is thicker than Mr Clever Sunak? Starmer has graduated from the school of hard knocks as a child of a tradesman.
    If you believe the last sentence I have a bridge to sell you. And it is Sir Thickie if you don't mind.

    He actually ended up graduating from the rather featherbedded St Edmund Hall Oxford via the perfectly respectable Leeds University. Essentially he is middle class by any measure, but the dinosaur class obsessed Labour Party want him to be seen as a working class lad. Laughable.
    Excuse me. The class obsessed poster outraged at Starmer's mediocre higher education performance was not a member of the Labour party but a former Conservative councillor from Epping Forest.
    Yes, but you've got to give him a bit of joy ffs!

    I don't wish to be cruel, but seeing HYUFD pass judgement on people's youth-time educational attainment as though that were the only indicator of intelligence, reminds me of a fat bloke in our pub who goes on about the England players not being fit enough.
    I wish I'd known you could read Law after doing Science A levels.
    Whatever else you read at Uni, you chose....wisely.
    Back in the day I knew of a real w***** who read politics at Cardiff. What f****' use was politics?

    Wastrel degrees like Sociology, Politics, Philosophy and Classics all need to be banned by the new Conservative Government next Friday as irrelevant to modern living.

    I wish I could have read something practically useful like Media Studies. Back in my day many non-Law and non-Stem degrees were academic nonsense!
    My time again and rather than Law, I would read something that began with A. Astronomy. Archeology. At a push even Anthropology.

    But fuck it, not law.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,081
    edited June 28
    Nunu5 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Jonathan said:

    Leon said:

    darkage said:

    I don't think these attacks on Reform will work. The aim is to try and destroy them by revealing their 'true nature' but it just keeps getting shrugged off by Farage. So the attacks fail, and the by product is that the discourse is normalised. It feels like the overton window shifting.

    Yes. There is a fashion on TikTok for young kids in France and Germany to say “yeah I’m a racist so fucking what”

    The term has lost a lot of its negative power through overuse and now it has a kind of mildly transgressive chic - which kids love of course. That’s how you shock the elders these days. Say “yeah I’m a racist” on TikTok. Cue heart attack in your parents

    Saying “fuck the toreeez” and going to Glastonbury is what people like @Heathener do

    Again I don’t believe Britain will be immune from this trend, we are merely behind the curve
    Is Britain ahead, behind or on a totally different curve? Time will tell. Brexit and Johnson gave the populist mad right wing nonsense thing a bad name with anyone under 50
    My thinking is Brexit has delayed our swerve to the populist right - but not necessarily averted it. We gave people the vote and they vented their anger - that has bought us time

    With that time we need to see a proper right wing government emerge that will actually do proper right wing things. Then maybe we can dodge the whole Le Pen shit altogether -

    But if that doesn’t happen then it seems inevitable to me that we will follow Italy France Sweden the USA Holland etc
    So after 14 years of Tory government and the implementation of the totemic political project of the populist reactionary right, our next move must be to the populist reactionary right, otherwise we might swing too far to the right.

    What an unwelcome prognosis (!) for anybody on the left or centre or centre right of politics, ie the majority of people. Have you checked with them? I bet you haven't. Because what I reckon they'd say, most of them, is how about we give good government a whirl first? It's been a while since we tried that.
    This government have been populist in rhetoric only. In reality they have had the highest immigration and highest tax on record. And have sold off a ton of top notch British companies. It hasn't been populist in implementation. Not one bit. Until we get the implementation of populist right wing policies then Farage and co will remain ever present
    "Do things our way or people will be angry and vote for us."

    Fine but the wrong sequence. The populist right can stick around as long as they like and try to get elected. Then we will have those policies. Until that day they can go whistle as far as I'm concerned. And since we're about to embark on 5 years, probably 10, of centre left Labour government I hope their lips are in good working order.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,682
    edited June 28
    Nunu5 said:

    Omg this poll is in line with pp
    Lab: 38%
    Ref: 21%
    Con: 18%
    LD: 11%

    WeThink just out however taken a day later, 27th-28th June, now has it Labour 42% Tories 20% ReformUK 16% LDs 10%

    https://x.com/wethinkpolling/status/1806719530925711447
  • PedestrianRockPedestrianRock Posts: 580
    edited June 28

    Nunu5 said:

    Wow. Big mistake from Starmer, says he won't continue with 25% tax free allowance for pensions

    He's gonna tax and tax and tax and tax and tax.

    Then tax some more. You were warned.
    They’ve explained it away and in fairness it seems plausible

    https://amp.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/28/stamp-duty-for-first-time-buyers-would-rise-in-2025-under-labour-government

    As far as I can tell, the 25% tax free allowance doesn’t have any sort of expiry date, so perhaps he actually misspoke.

    I don’t deny that they are going to tax way more than they’re currently saying, but I don’t really have an issue with that.

    Speaking as someone who is likely younger than a lot of other PBers, it’s been frustrating as all hell to see how this country has become lucrative as anything for a small segment of the population who all bought their houses 30 years ago for about £10, went to university for free, and now spend their days opposing everything that could possibly bring some more growth so we can bloody well pay for their pensions.

    The Tory government that has continually bribed the grey vote has on the other hand, among many other measures, imposed a de facto graduate tax on the young, and frankly, the Tory vote share amongst people under 50 should absolutely terrify all Tories who want a return to government anytime soon.

    I say this all as someone who has done pretty decently for themselves so far - this imbalance will define the next generation of politics. I have a lot of friends who are seriously contemplating more lucrative moves abroad - and most of them don’t even work in careers where that’s a common occurrence!

    And yet some people would prefer to live in a country where they can sit like Smaug atop their pile of Gold, complain that the young don’t know the meaning of hard work, and enjoy a lifestyle of being slightly well-off in a country where nothing bloody works properly, and the young who support their lifestyle have all fled for pastures new. But it’s okay - at least the modern train that could aid the nation’s economy won’t be within 2 miles of their house, blocking the views - we absolutely couldn’t have that!

    TL;DR if Starmer has a secret tax agenda - good - and unlike a lot of people who might say this I have no problems paying more tax myself either, if it’s coupled with fixing some long standing problems (the ridiculousness of how Council Tax is lower for Buckingham Palace than for 46% of households in the country - despite the fact that a ton of it is funding Adult Social Care - it doesn’t make any sense!!!) https://x.com/pjtheeconomist/status/1753361450809110922?s=46

    Labour have the chance of a lifetime to use a supermajority to get all the unpopular things done quickly. I am not necessarily convinced they will - and if they squander it I will certainly look elsewhere in 2029.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,933
    edited June 28
    Predicted, but still a disaster.
    SC overturns Chevron.

    https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/23pdf/22-451_7m58.pdf
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,913

    Nunu5 said:

    Wow. Big mistake from Starmer, says he won't continue with 25% tax free allowance for pensions

    He's gonna tax and tax and tax and tax and tax.

    Then tax some more. You were warned.
    They’ve explained it away and in fairness it seems plausible

    https://amp.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/28/stamp-duty-for-first-time-buyers-would-rise-in-2025-under-labour-government

    As far as I can tell, the 25% tax free allowance doesn’t have any sort of expiry date, so perhaps he actually misspoke.

    I don’t deny that they are going to tax way more than they’re currently saying, but I don’t really have an issue with that.

    Speaking as someone who is likely younger than a lot of other PBers, it’s been frustrating as all hell to see how this country has become lucrative as anything for a small segment of the population who all bought their houses 30 years ago for about £10, went to university for free, and now spend their days opposing everything that could possibly bring some more growth so we can bloody well pay for their pensions.

    The Tory government that has continually bribed the grey vote has on the other hand imposed a de facto graduate tax on the young, and frankly, the Tory vote share amongst people under 50 should absolutely terrify all Tories who want a return to government anytime soon.

    I say this all as someone who has done pretty decently for themselves so far - this imbalance will define the next generation of politics. I have a lot of friends who are seriously contemplating more lucrative moves abroad - and most of them don’t even work in careers where that’s a common occurrence!

    TL;DR if Starmer has a secret tax agenda - good - and unlike a lot of people who might say this I have no problems paying more tax myself either, if it’s coupled with fixing some long standing problems (the ridiculousness of how Council Tax is lower for Buckingham Palace than for 46% of households in the country - despite the fact that a ton of it is funding Adult Social Care - it doesn’t make any sense!!!) https://x.com/pjtheeconomist/status/1753361450809110922?s=46

    Labour have the chance of a lifetime to use a supermajority to get all the unpopular things done quickly. I am not necessarily convinced they will - and if they squander it I will certainly look elsewhere in 2029.
    End the CGT exemption for primary residences. Watch the boomers squeal.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,037

    rcs1000 said:

    biggles said:

    Leon said:

    Jonathan said:

    Leon said:

    darkage said:

    I don't think these attacks on Reform will work. The aim is to try and destroy them by revealing their 'true nature' but it just keeps getting shrugged off by Farage. So the attacks fail, and the by product is that the discourse is normalised. It feels like the overton window shifting.

    Yes. There is a fashion on TikTok for young kids in France and Germany to say “yeah I’m a racist so fucking what”

    The term has lost a lot of its negative power through overuse and now it has a kind of mildly transgressive chic - which kids love of course. That’s how you shock the elders these days. Say “yeah I’m a racist” on TikTok. Cue heart attack in your parents

    Saying “fuck the toreeez” and going to Glastonbury is what people like @Heathener do

    Again I don’t believe Britain will be immune from this trend, we are merely behind the curve
    Is Britain ahead, behind or on a totally different curve? Time will tell. Brexit and Johnson gave the populist mad right wing nonsense thing a bad name with anyone under 50
    My thinking is Brexit has delayed our swerve to the populist right - but not necessarily averted it. We gave people the vote and they vented their anger - that has bought us time

    With that time we need to see a proper right wing government emerge that will actually do proper right wing things. Then maybe we can dodge the whole Le Pen shit altogether -

    But if that doesn’t happen then it seems inevitable to me that we will follow Italy France Sweden the USA Holland etc
    I agree with your basic premise, it’s just that I don’t think they want right wing polices so much as a Government that does what it is told to.

    Brexit was a cry of frustration because nobody ever listened to the public saying they wanted to go no further. And then they got disenchanted that it still didn’t happen, and we got 2019.

    But I think it has led to volatility meaning Starmer isn’t guaranteed his second term, and the Tories aren’t guaranteed to replace him.
    Boris Johnson fucked up in setting the post-Brexit income thresholds too low, which resulted in far more people coming than was anticipated.

    His successors were then slow - very slow - to recognize this.

    I find it astonishing that it wasn't recognized by either Johnson or Sunak (and his Home Secretaries) that numbers coming were way above forecast, and were resulting in much higher net migration than was the case when the UK was part of the EU.

    And here Starmer is a very lucky General.

    Firstly, higher income thresholds were put in place for visas. Now, you can argue that £38,700 is still too low (or alternatively that it is far too simplistic, given that a 21 year old earning £39k is very different to a 45 year old), but it is still almost 40% above the old threshold. That means that a very substantial number of people who were eligible for visas before, are no longer eligible. And it is Starmer who who will see the benefit.

    Secondly, a large chunk of the increase in net immigration in the last three years has been student numbers. We've gone from 180k student (and dependent) visas issued a year to something like 600k. Based on experience most of those people will go home at the end of their courses. But there is an approximately three year period during which the number of students (and dependents) resident in the UK is rising fast. Once you get to the 3 or 4 year anniversary - and particularly if it is matched by smaller numbers of students coming - then the net impact falls dramatically.

    Starmer, if he does absolutely nothing, will be Prime Minister, when net immigration numbers fall quite significantly. Because maths.
    Are there any facts or figures on what percentage of migrants are coming on the income threshold visas?

    The student one I think is ripe for abuse and I am sceptical that most will go home after three years, because actually a very big percentage already stayed and that was before a surge in people coming from their world nations who have no desire to return home.

    Where my wife works the firm regular uses agency staff and the agency staff are almost always migrants who barely speak English and many of them have their phones playing university lectures on zoom in the background while they're getting on with their job. I don't think that's someone especially interested in the lecture.
    You can only stay on at the end of your studies if you get another visa.

    Now, you can do that by getting a new visa (like a skilled worker one) or by marrying a Brit. (Both of which are a hell of a lot easier if you are in the UK as a student already.) But it does mean that most students return home.

    Migration Observatory has a good article on it here: https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/student-migration-to-the-uk/

    The stat that most stood out to me was that, if you looked at the cohort from 2010, then after five years 19% had managed to get new visas, while 1% had indefinite leave to remain.

    I suspect that you will see very different patterns by nationality. Americans and Chinese students are probably near certain to return, while African students will be most keen to find a way to stay, with Indians in the middle.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,610
    Just took a look at Daily Mail webpage front and you can barely see the articles for massive adverts for Reform on all sides.

    Someone has money.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,484
    edited June 28

    Mavis Staples is a phenomenon

    She's eighty four years old and has been performing for more than seventy of them

    This is her latest track, Worthy, released ten days ago

    https://youtu.be/9wYU_4xDn8Y

    I love it

    I saw her dad, Pops. The Borderline, Charing Cross Road. Mid 80s. No idea who was on, turned up on spec.

    What a man. He walked next to MLK Jr.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,289
    HYUFD said:

    ...

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Brexit Britain could benefit from a flight to safety from the political chaos engulfing the US and EU.

    This will compensate for all the dynamic wealthy patriots who'll be leaving for Dubai due to Labour wokeness and high taxes.
    Oh please don't tell me that you, as an accountant, agree with that twat who wrote in The Guardian that we should be pleased that wealthy people are leaving.

    To alter the quote from Blackadder, many Labour voters brains are so minute , that if a hungry cannibal cracked one of their heads open, there wouldn't be enough to cover a small water biscuit.
    Yes. On this we agree. Even by the standards of the Guardian, that was one of the stupidest articles I have ever read. “Hooray all the evil wealthy tax payers are leaving. The fact they are leaving and not willing to pay massive taxes PROVES they are evil so we should be glad they’re going”

    Where do you even begin with an argument that dumb?
    Don't get sick. Don't get old. As a certain Welsh Windbag said.

    But that was said of the Tories. Labour's Britain is going to be a hell-hole of diminishing services if that "Eat the Rich!" mentality is as popular amongst the new intake as seems likely.
    My worry is not that they’re all secret or even open Marxists. They’re not clever enough for that

    And that is my worry. That they are dumb as rocks. All of them. At least you knew Blair was clever and perceptive and Brown had a massive if weird brain

    These guys? Sometimes I wonder about starmer. I mean he must be bright because he made it to DPP. I wish he’d evidence it a little more. Yet he doesn’t have a favourite novel or poem. He never dreams. He speaks of himself in the third person. He has zero sense of humour and no idea of “telling a story”. If he’s intelligent it must be a highly narrow kind of intelligence
    Says in Starmer's biography his A level grades were 2 Bs and a C. Now admittedly that included Maths and a Science which are more difficult and overall still clearly above average but does suggest he is hardly brain of Britain either.

    Intelligence wise as PM he will probably be another John Major or Jim Callaghan with a bit more metropolitan flair but not a great cultural hinterland either
    You really are an educational elitist.

    Who cares if Mr Thickie Starmer is thicker than Mr Clever Sunak? Starmer has graduated from the school of hard knocks as a child of a tradesman.
    If you believe the last sentence I have a bridge to sell you. And it is Sir Thickie if you don't mind.

    He actually ended up graduating from the rather featherbedded St Edmund Hall Oxford via the perfectly respectable Leeds University. Essentially he is middle class by any measure, but the dinosaur class obsessed Labour Party want him to be seen as a working class lad. Laughable.
    Excuse me. The class obsessed poster outraged at Starmer's mediocre higher education performance was not a member of the Labour party but a former Conservative councillor from Epping Forest.
    Yes, but you've got to give him a bit of joy ffs!

    I don't wish to be cruel, but seeing HYUFD pass judgement on people's youth-time educational attainment as though that were the only indicator of intelligence, reminds me of a fat bloke in our pub who goes on about the England players not being fit enough.
    I am not running to be PM, nor is the fat bloke in the England team. That is the job they are highly paid for.

    I also never said Starmer was thick but he is clearly not going to be in the top rank of our PMs by intelligence. Intelligence isn't the be all and end all for PMs, judgement, empathy and competence matters too but it helps
    But you supported Boris Johnson, the most stupid PM in my vast political memory, had Liz Truss not come long to make him look moderately clever. And I know, he went to Oxford. What did he do at Oxford? Classics. Sounds rather clever doesn't it, and even if you don't want to imagine that he might have been accepted in the way described in Porterhouse Blue, it should be remembered that only a tiny percentage of A-level students, even in those days, studied Latin and Greek. It was, and still is, I believe, the easiest subject area to gain access to Oxbridge colleges other than Land Economy.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,610
    kyf_100 said:

    Nunu5 said:

    Wow. Big mistake from Starmer, says he won't continue with 25% tax free allowance for pensions

    He's gonna tax and tax and tax and tax and tax.

    Then tax some more. You were warned.
    They’ve explained it away and in fairness it seems plausible

    https://amp.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/28/stamp-duty-for-first-time-buyers-would-rise-in-2025-under-labour-government

    As far as I can tell, the 25% tax free allowance doesn’t have any sort of expiry date, so perhaps he actually misspoke.

    I don’t deny that they are going to tax way more than they’re currently saying, but I don’t really have an issue with that.

    Speaking as someone who is likely younger than a lot of other PBers, it’s been frustrating as all hell to see how this country has become lucrative as anything for a small segment of the population who all bought their houses 30 years ago for about £10, went to university for free, and now spend their days opposing everything that could possibly bring some more growth so we can bloody well pay for their pensions.

    The Tory government that has continually bribed the grey vote has on the other hand imposed a de facto graduate tax on the young, and frankly, the Tory vote share amongst people under 50 should absolutely terrify all Tories who want a return to government anytime soon.

    I say this all as someone who has done pretty decently for themselves so far - this imbalance will define the next generation of politics. I have a lot of friends who are seriously contemplating more lucrative moves abroad - and most of them don’t even work in careers where that’s a common occurrence!

    TL;DR if Starmer has a secret tax agenda - good - and unlike a lot of people who might say this I have no problems paying more tax myself either, if it’s coupled with fixing some long standing problems (the ridiculousness of how Council Tax is lower for Buckingham Palace than for 46% of households in the country - despite the fact that a ton of it is funding Adult Social Care - it doesn’t make any sense!!!) https://x.com/pjtheeconomist/status/1753361450809110922?s=46

    Labour have the chance of a lifetime to use a supermajority to get all the unpopular things done quickly. I am not necessarily convinced they will - and if they squander it I will certainly look elsewhere in 2029.
    End the CGT exemption for primary residences. Watch the boomers squeal.
    Think they'd do more than squeal!!!
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,289

    Just took a look at Daily Mail webpage front and you can barely see the articles for massive adverts for Reform on all sides.

    Someone has money.

    I am not sure who you eees referring to comrade.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,320

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Brexit Britain could benefit from a flight to safety from the political chaos engulfing the US and EU.

    This will compensate for all the dynamic wealthy patriots who'll be leaving for Dubai due to Labour wokeness and high taxes.
    Oh please don't tell me that you, as an accountant, agree with that twat who wrote in The Guardian that we should be pleased that wealthy people are leaving.

    To alter the quote from Blackadder, many Labour voters brains are so minute , that if a hungry cannibal cracked one of their heads open, there wouldn't be enough to cover a small water biscuit.
    Yes. On this we agree. Even by the standards of the Guardian, that was one of the stupidest articles I have ever read. “Hooray all the evil wealthy tax payers are leaving. The fact they are leaving and not willing to pay massive taxes PROVES they are evil so we should be glad they’re going”

    Where do you even begin with an argument that dumb?
    Don't get sick. Don't get old. As a certain Welsh Windbag said.

    But that was said of the Tories. Labour's Britain is going to be a hell-hole of diminishing services if that "Eat the Rich!" mentality is as popular amongst the new intake as seems likely.
    My worry is not that they’re all secret or even open Marxists. They’re not clever enough for that

    And that is my worry. That they are dumb as rocks. All of them. At least you knew Blair was clever and perceptive and Brown had a massive if weird brain

    These guys? Sometimes I wonder about starmer. I mean he must be bright because he made it to DPP. I wish he’d evidence it a little more. Yet he doesn’t have a favourite novel or poem. He never dreams. He speaks of himself in the third person. He has zero sense of humour and no idea of “telling a story”. If he’s intelligent it must be a highly narrow kind of intelligence
    Says in Starmer's biography his A level grades were 2 Bs and a C. Now admittedly that included Maths and a Science which are more difficult and overall still clearly above average but does suggest he is hardly brain of Britain either.

    Intelligence wise he is probably John Major or Jim Callaghan with a bit more metropolitan flair but not a great cultural hinterland either
    A levels were rather harder in his day (and my day) than yours..

    BBC would get you into almost any University course then...
    My offer from Birmingham was BBC. I expected A in Maths, B in Chemistry, but was worried about getting a C in Physics.

    In the end I didn't get any Bs or Cs.

    When A Levels were hard, and getting an A was harder still.
    My offer from Cardiff was two Es. Got AABC. Life was somehow much easier in those days.
    My offer from UCL was two Us.
    You say that, my youngest son studied for his MA at Cardiff School of Journalism last year. The entry requirement was a minimum 2.1. There was a very posh girl who was allowed on without a first degree she so impressed the powers that be.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,635
    edited June 28

    HYUFD said:

    ...

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Brexit Britain could benefit from a flight to safety from the political chaos engulfing the US and EU.

    This will compensate for all the dynamic wealthy patriots who'll be leaving for Dubai due to Labour wokeness and high taxes.
    Oh please don't tell me that you, as an accountant, agree with that twat who wrote in The Guardian that we should be pleased that wealthy people are leaving.

    To alter the quote from Blackadder, many Labour voters brains are so minute , that if a hungry cannibal cracked one of their heads open, there wouldn't be enough to cover a small water biscuit.
    Yes. On this we agree. Even by the standards of the Guardian, that was one of the stupidest articles I have ever read. “Hooray all the evil wealthy tax payers are leaving. The fact they are leaving and not willing to pay massive taxes PROVES they are evil so we should be glad they’re going”

    Where do you even begin with an argument that dumb?
    Don't get sick. Don't get old. As a certain Welsh Windbag said.

    But that was said of the Tories. Labour's Britain is going to be a hell-hole of diminishing services if that "Eat the Rich!" mentality is as popular amongst the new intake as seems likely.
    My worry is not that they’re all secret or even open Marxists. They’re not clever enough for that

    And that is my worry. That they are dumb as rocks. All of them. At least you knew Blair was clever and perceptive and Brown had a massive if weird brain

    These guys? Sometimes I wonder about starmer. I mean he must be bright because he made it to DPP. I wish he’d evidence it a little more. Yet he doesn’t have a favourite novel or poem. He never dreams. He speaks of himself in the third person. He has zero sense of humour and no idea of “telling a story”. If he’s intelligent it must be a highly narrow kind of intelligence
    Says in Starmer's biography his A level grades were 2 Bs and a C. Now admittedly that included Maths and a Science which are more difficult and overall still clearly above average but does suggest he is hardly brain of Britain either.

    Intelligence wise as PM he will probably be another John Major or Jim Callaghan with a bit more metropolitan flair but not a great cultural hinterland either
    You really are an educational elitist.

    Who cares if Mr Thickie Starmer is thicker than Mr Clever Sunak? Starmer has graduated from the school of hard knocks as a child of a tradesman.
    If you believe the last sentence I have a bridge to sell you. And it is Sir Thickie if you don't mind.

    He actually ended up graduating from the rather featherbedded St Edmund Hall Oxford via the perfectly respectable Leeds University. Essentially he is middle class by any measure, but the dinosaur class obsessed Labour Party want him to be seen as a working class lad. Laughable.
    Excuse me. The class obsessed poster outraged at Starmer's mediocre higher education performance was not a member of the Labour party but a former Conservative councillor from Epping Forest.
    Yes, but you've got to give him a bit of joy ffs!

    I don't wish to be cruel, but seeing HYUFD pass judgement on people's youth-time educational attainment as though that were the only indicator of intelligence, reminds me of a fat bloke in our pub who goes on about the England players not being fit enough.
    I am not running to be PM, nor is the fat bloke in the England team. That is the job they are highly paid for.

    I also never said Starmer was thick but he is clearly not going to be in the top rank of our PMs by intelligence. Intelligence isn't the be all and end all for PMs, judgement, empathy and competence matters too but it helps
    But you supported Boris Johnson, the most stupid PM in my vast political memory, had Liz Truss not come long to make him look moderately clever. And I know, he went to Oxford. What did he do at Oxford? Classics. Sounds rather clever doesn't it, and even if you don't want to imagine that he might have been accepted in the way described in Porterhouse Blue, it should be remembered that only a tiny percentage of A-level students, even in those days, studied Latin and Greek. It was, and still is, I believe, the easiest subject area to gain access to Oxbridge colleges other than Land Economy.
    I thought Land Economy was quite difficult?

    You had to be a world class rower or the heir to a massive estate.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,289

    Nunu5 said:

    Wow. Big mistake from Starmer, says he won't continue with 25% tax free allowance for pensions

    He's gonna tax and tax and tax and tax and tax.

    Then tax some more. You were warned.
    They’ve explained it away and in fairness it seems plausible

    https://amp.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/28/stamp-duty-for-first-time-buyers-would-rise-in-2025-under-labour-government

    As far as I can tell, the 25% tax free allowance doesn’t have any sort of expiry date, so perhaps he actually misspoke.

    I don’t deny that they are going to tax way more than they’re currently saying, but I don’t really have an issue with that.

    Speaking as someone who is likely younger than a lot of other PBers, it’s been frustrating as all hell to see how this country has become lucrative as anything for a small segment of the population who all bought their houses 30 years ago for about £10, went to university for free, and now spend their days opposing everything that could possibly bring some more growth so we can bloody well pay for their pensions.

    The Tory government that has continually bribed the grey vote has on the other hand, among many other measures, imposed a de facto graduate tax on the young, and frankly, the Tory vote share amongst people under 50 should absolutely terrify all Tories who want a return to government anytime soon.

    I say this all as someone who has done pretty decently for themselves so far - this imbalance will define the next generation of politics. I have a lot of friends who are seriously contemplating more lucrative moves abroad - and most of them don’t even work in careers where that’s a common occurrence!

    And yet some people would prefer to live in a country where they can sit like Smaug atop their pile of Gold, complain that the young don’t know the meaning of hard work, and enjoy a lifestyle of being slightly well-off in a country where nothing bloody works properly, and the young who support their lifestyle have all fled for pastures new. But it’s okay - at least the modern train that could aid the nation’s economy won’t be within 2 miles of their house, blocking the views - we absolutely couldn’t have that!

    TL;DR if Starmer has a secret tax agenda - good - and unlike a lot of people who might say this I have no problems paying more tax myself either, if it’s coupled with fixing some long standing problems (the ridiculousness of how Council Tax is lower for Buckingham Palace than for 46% of households in the country - despite the fact that a ton of it is funding Adult Social Care - it doesn’t make any sense!!!) https://x.com/pjtheeconomist/status/1753361450809110922?s=46

    Labour have the chance of a lifetime to use a supermajority to get all the unpopular things done quickly. I am not necessarily convinced they will - and if they squander it I will certainly look elsewhere in 2029.
    You will be looking then.
  • Nunu5Nunu5 Posts: 963

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Brexit Britain could benefit from a flight to safety from the political chaos engulfing the US and EU.

    This will compensate for all the dynamic wealthy patriots who'll be leaving for Dubai due to Labour wokeness and high taxes.
    Oh please don't tell me that you, as an accountant, agree with that twat who wrote in The Guardian that we should be pleased that wealthy people are leaving.

    To alter the quote from Blackadder, many Labour voters brains are so minute , that if a hungry cannibal cracked one of their heads open, there wouldn't be enough to cover a small water biscuit.
    Yes. On this we agree. Even by the standards of the Guardian, that was one of the stupidest articles I have ever read. “Hooray all the evil wealthy tax payers are leaving. The fact they are leaving and not willing to pay massive taxes PROVES they are evil so we should be glad they’re going”

    Where do you even begin with an argument that dumb?
    Don't get sick. Don't get old. As a certain Welsh Windbag said.

    But that was said of the Tories. Labour's Britain is going to be a hell-hole of diminishing services if that "Eat the Rich!" mentality is as popular amongst the new intake as seems likely.
    My worry is not that they’re all secret or even open Marxists. They’re not clever enough for that

    And that is my worry. That they are dumb as rocks. All of them. At least you knew Blair was clever and perceptive and Brown had a massive if weird brain

    These guys? Sometimes I wonder about starmer. I mean he must be bright because he made it to DPP. I wish he’d evidence it a little more. Yet he doesn’t have a favourite novel or poem. He never dreams. He speaks of himself in the third person. He has zero sense of humour and no idea of “telling a story”. If he’s intelligent it must be a highly narrow kind of intelligence
    Says in Starmer's biography his A level grades were 2 Bs and a C. Now admittedly that included Maths and a Science which are more difficult and overall still clearly above average but does suggest he is hardly brain of Britain either.

    Intelligence wise he is probably John Major or Jim Callaghan with a bit more metropolitan flair but not a great cultural hinterland either
    A levels were rather harder in his day (and my day) than yours..

    BBC would get you into almost any University course then...
    My offer from Birmingham was BBC. I expected A in Maths, B in Chemistry, but was worried about getting a C in Physics.

    In the end I didn't get any Bs or Cs.

    When A Levels were hard, and getting an A was harder still.
    My offer from Cardiff was two Es. Got AABC. Life was somehow much easier in those days.
    My offer from UCL was two Us.
    You say that, my youngest son studied for his MA at Cardiff School of Journalism last year. The entry requirement was a minimum 2.1. There was a very posh girl who was allowed on without a first degree she so impressed the powers that be.
    It's called having connections.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,682
    edited June 28

    HYUFD said:

    ...

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Brexit Britain could benefit from a flight to safety from the political chaos engulfing the US and EU.

    This will compensate for all the dynamic wealthy patriots who'll be leaving for Dubai due to Labour wokeness and high taxes.
    Oh please don't tell me that you, as an accountant, agree with that twat who wrote in The Guardian that we should be pleased that wealthy people are leaving.

    To alter the quote from Blackadder, many Labour voters brains are so minute , that if a hungry cannibal cracked one of their heads open, there wouldn't be enough to cover a small water biscuit.
    Yes. On this we agree. Even by the standards of the Guardian, that was one of the stupidest articles I have ever read. “Hooray all the evil wealthy tax payers are leaving. The fact they are leaving and not willing to pay massive taxes PROVES they are evil so we should be glad they’re going”

    Where do you even begin with an argument that dumb?
    Don't get sick. Don't get old. As a certain Welsh Windbag said.

    But that was said of the Tories. Labour's Britain is going to be a hell-hole of diminishing services if that "Eat the Rich!" mentality is as popular amongst the new intake as seems likely.
    My worry is not that they’re all secret or even open Marxists. They’re not clever enough for that

    And that is my worry. That they are dumb as rocks. All of them. At least you knew Blair was clever and perceptive and Brown had a massive if weird brain

    These guys? Sometimes I wonder about starmer. I mean he must be bright because he made it to DPP. I wish he’d evidence it a little more. Yet he doesn’t have a favourite novel or poem. He never dreams. He speaks of himself in the third person. He has zero sense of humour and no idea of “telling a story”. If he’s intelligent it must be a highly narrow kind of intelligence
    Says in Starmer's biography his A level grades were 2 Bs and a C. Now admittedly that included Maths and a Science which are more difficult and overall still clearly above average but does suggest he is hardly brain of Britain either.

    Intelligence wise as PM he will probably be another John Major or Jim Callaghan with a bit more metropolitan flair but not a great cultural hinterland either
    You really are an educational elitist.

    Who cares if Mr Thickie Starmer is thicker than Mr Clever Sunak? Starmer has graduated from the school of hard knocks as a child of a tradesman.
    If you believe the last sentence I have a bridge to sell you. And it is Sir Thickie if you don't mind.

    He actually ended up graduating from the rather featherbedded St Edmund Hall Oxford via the perfectly respectable Leeds University. Essentially he is middle class by any measure, but the dinosaur class obsessed Labour Party want him to be seen as a working class lad. Laughable.
    Excuse me. The class obsessed poster outraged at Starmer's mediocre higher education performance was not a member of the Labour party but a former Conservative councillor from Epping Forest.
    Yes, but you've got to give him a bit of joy ffs!

    I don't wish to be cruel, but seeing HYUFD pass judgement on people's youth-time educational attainment as though that were the only indicator of intelligence, reminds me of a fat bloke in our pub who goes on about the England players not being fit enough.
    I am not running to be PM, nor is the fat bloke in the England team. That is the job they are highly paid for.

    I also never said Starmer was thick but he is clearly not going to be in the top rank of our PMs by intelligence. Intelligence isn't the be all and end all for PMs, judgement, empathy and competence matters too but it helps
    But you supported Boris Johnson, the most stupid PM in my vast political memory, had Liz Truss not come long to make him look moderately clever. And I know, he went to Oxford. What did he do at Oxford? Classics. Sounds rather clever doesn't it, and even if you don't want to imagine that he might have been accepted in the way described in Porterhouse Blue, it should be remembered that only a tiny percentage of A-level students, even in those days, studied Latin and Greek. It was, and still is, I believe, the easiest subject area to gain access to Oxbridge colleges other than Land Economy.
    It was Boris who beat Corbyn, Boris who got Brexit done and had Boris still been leader the Tories would not be heading for near annihilation but would be on 200 seats+ with Reform well under 10% still. We therefore would have a pro Ukraine leader of the right still, not a surging Farage and his Putin apologies. The markets would not have reacted so badly to Truss' budget either as there would have been no Truss budget and no PM Kwarteng.

    So no I make NO apologies for backing Boris with his Classics degree rather than Truss and Sunak's PPE degrees. Fat lot of good they did them!
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,243
    edited June 28
    This time next week SKS will be in Downing St. appointing his cabinet and the Con blood-letting with have begun!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,682

    HYUFD said:

    ...

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Brexit Britain could benefit from a flight to safety from the political chaos engulfing the US and EU.

    This will compensate for all the dynamic wealthy patriots who'll be leaving for Dubai due to Labour wokeness and high taxes.
    Oh please don't tell me that you, as an accountant, agree with that twat who wrote in The Guardian that we should be pleased that wealthy people are leaving.

    To alter the quote from Blackadder, many Labour voters brains are so minute , that if a hungry cannibal cracked one of their heads open, there wouldn't be enough to cover a small water biscuit.
    Yes. On this we agree. Even by the standards of the Guardian, that was one of the stupidest articles I have ever read. “Hooray all the evil wealthy tax payers are leaving. The fact they are leaving and not willing to pay massive taxes PROVES they are evil so we should be glad they’re going”

    Where do you even begin with an argument that dumb?
    Don't get sick. Don't get old. As a certain Welsh Windbag said.

    But that was said of the Tories. Labour's Britain is going to be a hell-hole of diminishing services if that "Eat the Rich!" mentality is as popular amongst the new intake as seems likely.
    My worry is not that they’re all secret or even open Marxists. They’re not clever enough for that

    And that is my worry. That they are dumb as rocks. All of them. At least you knew Blair was clever and perceptive and Brown had a massive if weird brain

    These guys? Sometimes I wonder about starmer. I mean he must be bright because he made it to DPP. I wish he’d evidence it a little more. Yet he doesn’t have a favourite novel or poem. He never dreams. He speaks of himself in the third person. He has zero sense of humour and no idea of “telling a story”. If he’s intelligent it must be a highly narrow kind of intelligence
    Says in Starmer's biography his A level grades were 2 Bs and a C. Now admittedly that included Maths and a Science which are more difficult and overall still clearly above average but does suggest he is hardly brain of Britain either.

    Intelligence wise as PM he will probably be another John Major or Jim Callaghan with a bit more metropolitan flair but not a great cultural hinterland either
    You really are an educational elitist.

    Who cares if Mr Thickie Starmer is thicker than Mr Clever Sunak? Starmer has graduated from the school of hard knocks as a child of a tradesman.
    If you believe the last sentence I have a bridge to sell you. And it is Sir Thickie if you don't mind.

    He actually ended up graduating from the rather featherbedded St Edmund Hall Oxford via the perfectly respectable Leeds University. Essentially he is middle class by any measure, but the dinosaur class obsessed Labour Party want him to be seen as a working class lad. Laughable.
    Excuse me. The class obsessed poster outraged at Starmer's mediocre higher education performance was not a member of the Labour party but a former Conservative councillor from Epping Forest.
    Yes, but you've got to give him a bit of joy ffs!

    I don't wish to be cruel, but seeing HYUFD pass judgement on people's youth-time educational attainment as though that were the only indicator of intelligence, reminds me of a fat bloke in our pub who goes on about the England players not being fit enough.
    I am not running to be PM, nor is the fat bloke in the England team. That is the job they are highly paid for.

    I also never said Starmer was thick but he is clearly not going to be in the top rank of our PMs by intelligence. Intelligence isn't the be all and end all for PMs, judgement, empathy and competence matters too but it helps
    But you supported Boris Johnson, the most stupid PM in my vast political memory, had Liz Truss not come long to make him look moderately clever. And I know, he went to Oxford. What did he do at Oxford? Classics. Sounds rather clever doesn't it, and even if you don't want to imagine that he might have been accepted in the way described in Porterhouse Blue, it should be remembered that only a tiny percentage of A-level students, even in those days, studied Latin and Greek. It was, and still is, I believe, the easiest subject area to gain access to Oxbridge colleges other than Land Economy.
    I thought Land Economy was quite difficult?

    You had to be a world class rower or the heir to a massive estate.
    It is also very useful in a practical way if you want to be a farmer
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,610
    Clyburn tells Biden to 'stay the course'.

    FFS.

    Trump wins the election this weekend it seems.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,963
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    biggles said:

    Leon said:

    Jonathan said:

    Leon said:

    darkage said:

    I don't think these attacks on Reform will work. The aim is to try and destroy them by revealing their 'true nature' but it just keeps getting shrugged off by Farage. So the attacks fail, and the by product is that the discourse is normalised. It feels like the overton window shifting.

    Yes. There is a fashion on TikTok for young kids in France and Germany to say “yeah I’m a racist so fucking what”

    The term has lost a lot of its negative power through overuse and now it has a kind of mildly transgressive chic - which kids love of course. That’s how you shock the elders these days. Say “yeah I’m a racist” on TikTok. Cue heart attack in your parents

    Saying “fuck the toreeez” and going to Glastonbury is what people like @Heathener do

    Again I don’t believe Britain will be immune from this trend, we are merely behind the curve
    Is Britain ahead, behind or on a totally different curve? Time will tell. Brexit and Johnson gave the populist mad right wing nonsense thing a bad name with anyone under 50
    My thinking is Brexit has delayed our swerve to the populist right - but not necessarily averted it. We gave people the vote and they vented their anger - that has bought us time

    With that time we need to see a proper right wing government emerge that will actually do proper right wing things. Then maybe we can dodge the whole Le Pen shit altogether -

    But if that doesn’t happen then it seems inevitable to me that we will follow Italy France Sweden the USA Holland etc
    I agree with your basic premise, it’s just that I don’t think they want right wing polices so much as a Government that does what it is told to.

    Brexit was a cry of frustration because nobody ever listened to the public saying they wanted to go no further. And then they got disenchanted that it still didn’t happen, and we got 2019.

    But I think it has led to volatility meaning Starmer isn’t guaranteed his second term, and the Tories aren’t guaranteed to replace him.
    Boris Johnson fucked up in setting the post-Brexit income thresholds too low, which resulted in far more people coming than was anticipated.

    His successors were then slow - very slow - to recognize this.

    I find it astonishing that it wasn't recognized by either Johnson or Sunak (and his Home Secretaries) that numbers coming were way above forecast, and were resulting in much higher net migration than was the case when the UK was part of the EU.

    And here Starmer is a very lucky General.

    Firstly, higher income thresholds were put in place for visas. Now, you can argue that £38,700 is still too low (or alternatively that it is far too simplistic, given that a 21 year old earning £39k is very different to a 45 year old), but it is still almost 40% above the old threshold. That means that a very substantial number of people who were eligible for visas before, are no longer eligible. And it is Starmer who who will see the benefit.

    Secondly, a large chunk of the increase in net immigration in the last three years has been student numbers. We've gone from 180k student (and dependent) visas issued a year to something like 600k. Based on experience most of those people will go home at the end of their courses. But there is an approximately three year period during which the number of students (and dependents) resident in the UK is rising fast. Once you get to the 3 or 4 year anniversary - and particularly if it is matched by smaller numbers of students coming - then the net impact falls dramatically.

    Starmer, if he does absolutely nothing, will be Prime Minister, when net immigration numbers fall quite significantly. Because maths.
    Are there any facts or figures on what percentage of migrants are coming on the income threshold visas?

    The student one I think is ripe for abuse and I am sceptical that most will go home after three years, because actually a very big percentage already stayed and that was before a surge in people coming from their world nations who have no desire to return home.

    Where my wife works the firm regular uses agency staff and the agency staff are almost always migrants who barely speak English and many of them have their phones playing university lectures on zoom in the background while they're getting on with their job. I don't think that's someone especially interested in the lecture.
    You can only stay on at the end of your studies if you get another visa.

    Now, you can do that by getting a new visa (like a skilled worker one) or by marrying a Brit. (Both of which are a hell of a lot easier if you are in the UK as a student already.) But it does mean that most students return home.

    Migration Observatory has a good article on it here: https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/student-migration-to-the-uk/

    The stat that most stood out to me was that, if you looked at the cohort from 2010, then after five years 19% had managed to get new visas, while 1% had indefinite leave to remain.

    I suspect that you will see very different patterns by nationality. Americans and Chinese students are probably near certain to return, while African students will be most keen to find a way to stay, with Indians in the middle.
    2010 data is quite inconsistent with modern data and as your link makes clear, people bringing dependents with them are not typically intending to leave the country and a major part of the figures is an eight-fold increase in the number of dependents coming over. With students from Nigeria bringing over dependents at a ratio of over 1:1.

    But Starmer could be a lucky general there too as it seems that loophole that got exploited has been closed in which case again numbers could fall without him taking any action there either.
  • PedestrianRockPedestrianRock Posts: 580
    kyf_100 said:

    Nunu5 said:

    Wow. Big mistake from Starmer, says he won't continue with 25% tax free allowance for pensions

    He's gonna tax and tax and tax and tax and tax.

    Then tax some more. You were warned.
    They’ve explained it away and in fairness it seems plausible

    https://amp.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/28/stamp-duty-for-first-time-buyers-would-rise-in-2025-under-labour-government

    As far as I can tell, the 25% tax free allowance doesn’t have any sort of expiry date, so perhaps he actually misspoke.

    I don’t deny that they are going to tax way more than they’re currently saying, but I don’t really have an issue with that.

    Speaking as someone who is likely younger than a lot of other PBers, it’s been frustrating as all hell to see how this country has become lucrative as anything for a small segment of the population who all bought their houses 30 years ago for about £10, went to university for free, and now spend their days opposing everything that could possibly bring some more growth so we can bloody well pay for their pensions.

    The Tory government that has continually bribed the grey vote has on the other hand imposed a de facto graduate tax on the young, and frankly, the Tory vote share amongst people under 50 should absolutely terrify all Tories who want a return to government anytime soon.

    I say this all as someone who has done pretty decently for themselves so far - this imbalance will define the next generation of politics. I have a lot of friends who are seriously contemplating more lucrative moves abroad - and most of them don’t even work in careers where that’s a common occurrence!

    TL;DR if Starmer has a secret tax agenda - good - and unlike a lot of people who might say this I have no problems paying more tax myself either, if it’s coupled with fixing some long standing problems (the ridiculousness of how Council Tax is lower for Buckingham Palace than for 46% of households in the country - despite the fact that a ton of it is funding Adult Social Care - it doesn’t make any sense!!!) https://x.com/pjtheeconomist/status/1753361450809110922?s=46

    Labour have the chance of a lifetime to use a supermajority to get all the unpopular things done quickly. I am not necessarily convinced they will - and if they squander it I will certainly look elsewhere in 2029.
    End the CGT exemption for primary residences. Watch the boomers squeal.
    A sizeable number of people see a country where they bought a semi detached house for £130,000 in 1995 off a single person’s salary, see it be worth £963,000 in 2024, and then are bloody outraged that the state should perhaps take a bit of that in a country when they pass it down to their children, whilst millions of people are living with their parents in their 30s and 40s and may never own a home. “Can’t we cut benefits instead?” they ask.

  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,346

    Farooq said:

    I almost single-handedly destroyed the British National party claims Farage.

    Yes mate. I single-handedly destroyed a lamb korma last night. It's now part of me. Every time I burp the room smells of it.

    I hear u-know-who used to stomp around Munich in the 20s boasting about single handedly destroying the antisemitic, nationalist German Workers Party.
    Joe Biden?
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 5,877

    Mavis Staples is a phenomenon

    She's eighty four years old and has been performing for more than seventy of them

    This is her latest track, Worthy, released ten days ago

    https://youtu.be/9wYU_4xDn8Y

    I love it

    I saw her dad, Pops. The Borderline, Charing Cross Road. Mid 80s. No idea who was on, turned up on spec.

    What a man. He walked next to MLK Jr.
    I've seen Mavis four times

    I'd swap two of those for one Pops show

    But not the one when she held my hand and squeezed it (at Under The Bridge, under the Chelsea stadium). I remember thinking after that I was now one degree of touching from MLK
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,682

    Clyburn tells Biden to 'stay the course'.

    FFS.

    Trump wins the election this weekend it seems.

    If he can keep out of jail next month
  • novanova Posts: 690
    Nunu5 said:

    Omg this poll is in line with pp
    Lab: 38%
    Ref: 21%
    Con: 18%
    LD: 11%

    It's nowhere near the People Polling poll, if that's what you mean?

    It's also not more than 1pt different for any party since their last poll, and their polls over the whole election period only appear to have tracked the general trend.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,933
    Nigelb said:

    Predicted, but still a disaster.
    SC overturns Chevron.

    https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/23pdf/22-451_7m58.pdf

    Possibly the worst decision this court has made, and heaven knows it's been a utter shitshow since Trump's appointments.
    It's an enormous power grab by the Court at the expense of Congress, and demonstrates a contempt for the stare decisis doctrine that is deeper than the Dodds decision.

    Kagan's dissent is well argued, and appropriately scathing. She made a point of reading it from the bench.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,320

    ...

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Brexit Britain could benefit from a flight to safety from the political chaos engulfing the US and EU.

    This will compensate for all the dynamic wealthy patriots who'll be leaving for Dubai due to Labour wokeness and high taxes.
    Oh please don't tell me that you, as an accountant, agree with that twat who wrote in The Guardian that we should be pleased that wealthy people are leaving.

    To alter the quote from Blackadder, many Labour voters brains are so minute , that if a hungry cannibal cracked one of their heads open, there wouldn't be enough to cover a small water biscuit.
    Yes. On this we agree. Even by the standards of the Guardian, that was one of the stupidest articles I have ever read. “Hooray all the evil wealthy tax payers are leaving. The fact they are leaving and not willing to pay massive taxes PROVES they are evil so we should be glad they’re going”

    Where do you even begin with an argument that dumb?
    Don't get sick. Don't get old. As a certain Welsh Windbag said.

    But that was said of the Tories. Labour's Britain is going to be a hell-hole of diminishing services if that "Eat the Rich!" mentality is as popular amongst the new intake as seems likely.
    My worry is not that they’re all secret or even open Marxists. They’re not clever enough for that

    And that is my worry. That they are dumb as rocks. All of them. At least you knew Blair was clever and perceptive and Brown had a massive if weird brain

    These guys? Sometimes I wonder about starmer. I mean he must be bright because he made it to DPP. I wish he’d evidence it a little more. Yet he doesn’t have a favourite novel or poem. He never dreams. He speaks of himself in the third person. He has zero sense of humour and no idea of “telling a story”. If he’s intelligent it must be a highly narrow kind of intelligence
    Says in Starmer's biography his A level grades were 2 Bs and a C. Now admittedly that included Maths and a Science which are more difficult and overall still clearly above average but does suggest he is hardly brain of Britain either.

    Intelligence wise as PM he will probably be another John Major or Jim Callaghan with a bit more metropolitan flair but not a great cultural hinterland either
    You really are an educational elitist.

    Who cares if Mr Thickie Starmer is thicker than Mr Clever Sunak? Starmer has graduated from the school of hard knocks as a child of a tradesman.
    If you believe the last sentence I have a bridge to sell you. And it is Sir Thickie if you don't mind.

    He actually ended up graduating from the rather featherbedded St Edmund Hall Oxford via the perfectly respectable Leeds University. Essentially he is middle class by any measure, but the dinosaur class obsessed Labour Party want him to be seen as a working class lad. Laughable.
    Excuse me. The class obsessed poster outraged at Starmer's mediocre higher education performance was not a member of the Labour party but a former Conservative councillor from Epping Forest.
    Yes, but you've got to give him a bit of joy ffs!

    I don't wish to be cruel, but seeing HYUFD pass judgement on people's youth-time educational attainment as though that were the only indicator of intelligence, reminds me of a fat bloke in our pub who goes on about the England players not being fit enough.
    I wish I'd known you could read Law after doing Science A levels.
    Whatever else you read at Uni, you chose....wisely.
    Back in the day I knew of a real w***** who read politics at Cardiff. What f****' use was politics?

    Wastrel degrees like Sociology, Politics, Philosophy and Classics all need to be banned by the new Conservative Government next Friday as irrelevant to modern living.

    I wish I could have read something practically useful like Media Studies. Back in my day many non-Law and non-Stem degrees were academic nonsense!
    My time again and rather than Law, I would read something that began with A. Astronomy. Archeology. At a push even Anthropology.

    But fuck it, not law.
    The opportunities out there are far and wide, and somehow I got involved in the borefest that is environmental compliance.
  • PedestrianRockPedestrianRock Posts: 580

    Nunu5 said:

    Wow. Big mistake from Starmer, says he won't continue with 25% tax free allowance for pensions

    He's gonna tax and tax and tax and tax and tax.

    Then tax some more. You were warned.
    They’ve explained it away and in fairness it seems plausible

    https://amp.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/28/stamp-duty-for-first-time-buyers-would-rise-in-2025-under-labour-government

    As far as I can tell, the 25% tax free allowance doesn’t have any sort of expiry date, so perhaps he actually misspoke.

    I don’t deny that they are going to tax way more than they’re currently saying, but I don’t really have an issue with that.

    Speaking as someone who is likely younger than a lot of other PBers, it’s been frustrating as all hell to see how this country has become lucrative as anything for a small segment of the population who all bought their houses 30 years ago for about £10, went to university for free, and now spend their days opposing everything that could possibly bring some more growth so we can bloody well pay for their pensions.

    The Tory government that has continually bribed the grey vote has on the other hand, among many other measures, imposed a de facto graduate tax on the young, and frankly, the Tory vote share amongst people under 50 should absolutely terrify all Tories who want a return to government anytime soon.

    I say this all as someone who has done pretty decently for themselves so far - this imbalance will define the next generation of politics. I have a lot of friends who are seriously contemplating more lucrative moves abroad - and most of them don’t even work in careers where that’s a common occurrence!

    And yet some people would prefer to live in a country where they can sit like Smaug atop their pile of Gold, complain that the young don’t know the meaning of hard work, and enjoy a lifestyle of being slightly well-off in a country where nothing bloody works properly, and the young who support their lifestyle have all fled for pastures new. But it’s okay - at least the modern train that could aid the nation’s economy won’t be within 2 miles of their house, blocking the views - we absolutely couldn’t have that!

    TL;DR if Starmer has a secret tax agenda - good - and unlike a lot of people who might say this I have no problems paying more tax myself either, if it’s coupled with fixing some long standing problems (the ridiculousness of how Council Tax is lower for Buckingham Palace than for 46% of households in the country - despite the fact that a ton of it is funding Adult Social Care - it doesn’t make any sense!!!) https://x.com/pjtheeconomist/status/1753361450809110922?s=46

    Labour have the chance of a lifetime to use a supermajority to get all the unpopular things done quickly. I am not necessarily convinced they will - and if they squander it I will certainly look elsewhere in 2029.
    You will be looking then.
    Okay, that’s fine! Unlike many PBers I’m happy to change my vote if I don’t like what I see in the manifestos and/or feel let down by the previous administration.

    (not casting any aspersions on you specifically btw!)
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,289

    HYUFD said:

    ...

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Brexit Britain could benefit from a flight to safety from the political chaos engulfing the US and EU.

    This will compensate for all the dynamic wealthy patriots who'll be leaving for Dubai due to Labour wokeness and high taxes.
    Oh please don't tell me that you, as an accountant, agree with that twat who wrote in The Guardian that we should be pleased that wealthy people are leaving.

    To alter the quote from Blackadder, many Labour voters brains are so minute , that if a hungry cannibal cracked one of their heads open, there wouldn't be enough to cover a small water biscuit.
    Yes. On this we agree. Even by the standards of the Guardian, that was one of the stupidest articles I have ever read. “Hooray all the evil wealthy tax payers are leaving. The fact they are leaving and not willing to pay massive taxes PROVES they are evil so we should be glad they’re going”

    Where do you even begin with an argument that dumb?
    Don't get sick. Don't get old. As a certain Welsh Windbag said.

    But that was said of the Tories. Labour's Britain is going to be a hell-hole of diminishing services if that "Eat the Rich!" mentality is as popular amongst the new intake as seems likely.
    My worry is not that they’re all secret or even open Marxists. They’re not clever enough for that

    And that is my worry. That they are dumb as rocks. All of them. At least you knew Blair was clever and perceptive and Brown had a massive if weird brain

    These guys? Sometimes I wonder about starmer. I mean he must be bright because he made it to DPP. I wish he’d evidence it a little more. Yet he doesn’t have a favourite novel or poem. He never dreams. He speaks of himself in the third person. He has zero sense of humour and no idea of “telling a story”. If he’s intelligent it must be a highly narrow kind of intelligence
    Says in Starmer's biography his A level grades were 2 Bs and a C. Now admittedly that included Maths and a Science which are more difficult and overall still clearly above average but does suggest he is hardly brain of Britain either.

    Intelligence wise as PM he will probably be another John Major or Jim Callaghan with a bit more metropolitan flair but not a great cultural hinterland either
    You really are an educational elitist.

    Who cares if Mr Thickie Starmer is thicker than Mr Clever Sunak? Starmer has graduated from the school of hard knocks as a child of a tradesman.
    If you believe the last sentence I have a bridge to sell you. And it is Sir Thickie if you don't mind.

    He actually ended up graduating from the rather featherbedded St Edmund Hall Oxford via the perfectly respectable Leeds University. Essentially he is middle class by any measure, but the dinosaur class obsessed Labour Party want him to be seen as a working class lad. Laughable.
    Excuse me. The class obsessed poster outraged at Starmer's mediocre higher education performance was not a member of the Labour party but a former Conservative councillor from Epping Forest.
    Yes, but you've got to give him a bit of joy ffs!

    I don't wish to be cruel, but seeing HYUFD pass judgement on people's youth-time educational attainment as though that were the only indicator of intelligence, reminds me of a fat bloke in our pub who goes on about the England players not being fit enough.
    I am not running to be PM, nor is the fat bloke in the England team. That is the job they are highly paid for.

    I also never said Starmer was thick but he is clearly not going to be in the top rank of our PMs by intelligence. Intelligence isn't the be all and end all for PMs, judgement, empathy and competence matters too but it helps
    But you supported Boris Johnson, the most stupid PM in my vast political memory, had Liz Truss not come long to make him look moderately clever. And I know, he went to Oxford. What did he do at Oxford? Classics. Sounds rather clever doesn't it, and even if you don't want to imagine that he might have been accepted in the way described in Porterhouse Blue, it should be remembered that only a tiny percentage of A-level students, even in those days, studied Latin and Greek. It was, and still is, I believe, the easiest subject area to gain access to Oxbridge colleges other than Land Economy.
    I thought Land Economy was quite difficult?

    You had to be a world class rower or the heir to a massive estate.
    Well indeed, that massive intellect Gavin Hastings was an alumni of Cambridge with an MA(Cantab) (That is a BA anywhere else) in Land Economy.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,037

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    biggles said:

    Leon said:

    Jonathan said:

    Leon said:

    darkage said:

    I don't think these attacks on Reform will work. The aim is to try and destroy them by revealing their 'true nature' but it just keeps getting shrugged off by Farage. So the attacks fail, and the by product is that the discourse is normalised. It feels like the overton window shifting.

    Yes. There is a fashion on TikTok for young kids in France and Germany to say “yeah I’m a racist so fucking what”

    The term has lost a lot of its negative power through overuse and now it has a kind of mildly transgressive chic - which kids love of course. That’s how you shock the elders these days. Say “yeah I’m a racist” on TikTok. Cue heart attack in your parents

    Saying “fuck the toreeez” and going to Glastonbury is what people like @Heathener do

    Again I don’t believe Britain will be immune from this trend, we are merely behind the curve
    Is Britain ahead, behind or on a totally different curve? Time will tell. Brexit and Johnson gave the populist mad right wing nonsense thing a bad name with anyone under 50
    My thinking is Brexit has delayed our swerve to the populist right - but not necessarily averted it. We gave people the vote and they vented their anger - that has bought us time

    With that time we need to see a proper right wing government emerge that will actually do proper right wing things. Then maybe we can dodge the whole Le Pen shit altogether -

    But if that doesn’t happen then it seems inevitable to me that we will follow Italy France Sweden the USA Holland etc
    I agree with your basic premise, it’s just that I don’t think they want right wing polices so much as a Government that does what it is told to.

    Brexit was a cry of frustration because nobody ever listened to the public saying they wanted to go no further. And then they got disenchanted that it still didn’t happen, and we got 2019.

    But I think it has led to volatility meaning Starmer isn’t guaranteed his second term, and the Tories aren’t guaranteed to replace him.
    Boris Johnson fucked up in setting the post-Brexit income thresholds too low, which resulted in far more people coming than was anticipated.

    His successors were then slow - very slow - to recognize this.

    I find it astonishing that it wasn't recognized by either Johnson or Sunak (and his Home Secretaries) that numbers coming were way above forecast, and were resulting in much higher net migration than was the case when the UK was part of the EU.

    And here Starmer is a very lucky General.

    Firstly, higher income thresholds were put in place for visas. Now, you can argue that £38,700 is still too low (or alternatively that it is far too simplistic, given that a 21 year old earning £39k is very different to a 45 year old), but it is still almost 40% above the old threshold. That means that a very substantial number of people who were eligible for visas before, are no longer eligible. And it is Starmer who who will see the benefit.

    Secondly, a large chunk of the increase in net immigration in the last three years has been student numbers. We've gone from 180k student (and dependent) visas issued a year to something like 600k. Based on experience most of those people will go home at the end of their courses. But there is an approximately three year period during which the number of students (and dependents) resident in the UK is rising fast. Once you get to the 3 or 4 year anniversary - and particularly if it is matched by smaller numbers of students coming - then the net impact falls dramatically.

    Starmer, if he does absolutely nothing, will be Prime Minister, when net immigration numbers fall quite significantly. Because maths.
    Are there any facts or figures on what percentage of migrants are coming on the income threshold visas?

    The student one I think is ripe for abuse and I am sceptical that most will go home after three years, because actually a very big percentage already stayed and that was before a surge in people coming from their world nations who have no desire to return home.

    Where my wife works the firm regular uses agency staff and the agency staff are almost always migrants who barely speak English and many of them have their phones playing university lectures on zoom in the background while they're getting on with their job. I don't think that's someone especially interested in the lecture.
    You can only stay on at the end of your studies if you get another visa.

    Now, you can do that by getting a new visa (like a skilled worker one) or by marrying a Brit. (Both of which are a hell of a lot easier if you are in the UK as a student already.) But it does mean that most students return home.

    Migration Observatory has a good article on it here: https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/student-migration-to-the-uk/

    The stat that most stood out to me was that, if you looked at the cohort from 2010, then after five years 19% had managed to get new visas, while 1% had indefinite leave to remain.

    I suspect that you will see very different patterns by nationality. Americans and Chinese students are probably near certain to return, while African students will be most keen to find a way to stay, with Indians in the middle.
    2010 data is quite inconsistent with modern data and as your link makes clear, people bringing dependents with them are not typically intending to leave the country and a major part of the figures is an eight-fold increase in the number of dependents coming over. With students from Nigeria bringing over dependents at a ratio of over 1:1.

    But Starmer could be a lucky general there too as it seems that loophole that got exploited has been closed in which case again numbers could fall without him taking any action there either.
    It has indeed: it's much harder to bring dependents over than it used to be. I also posted more recent data, which showed a very similar trend.

    You wife's colleagues are coming the UK and working while "studying", but they still need to qualify for a visa once their studies are over. They can get a two year "graduate visa" extension, but after that, unless they have a skilled worker visa or have managed to marry, then they'll be off back home.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,320

    Clyburn tells Biden to 'stay the course'.

    FFS.

    Trump wins the election this weekend it seems.

    Offer Biden a pardon for Hunter as part of his removal package.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,089
    The relative hold up amongst British Indian support must be good news for Bob Blackman in Harrow East
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,289
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    ...

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Brexit Britain could benefit from a flight to safety from the political chaos engulfing the US and EU.

    This will compensate for all the dynamic wealthy patriots who'll be leaving for Dubai due to Labour wokeness and high taxes.
    Oh please don't tell me that you, as an accountant, agree with that twat who wrote in The Guardian that we should be pleased that wealthy people are leaving.

    To alter the quote from Blackadder, many Labour voters brains are so minute , that if a hungry cannibal cracked one of their heads open, there wouldn't be enough to cover a small water biscuit.
    Yes. On this we agree. Even by the standards of the Guardian, that was one of the stupidest articles I have ever read. “Hooray all the evil wealthy tax payers are leaving. The fact they are leaving and not willing to pay massive taxes PROVES they are evil so we should be glad they’re going”

    Where do you even begin with an argument that dumb?
    Don't get sick. Don't get old. As a certain Welsh Windbag said.

    But that was said of the Tories. Labour's Britain is going to be a hell-hole of diminishing services if that "Eat the Rich!" mentality is as popular amongst the new intake as seems likely.
    My worry is not that they’re all secret or even open Marxists. They’re not clever enough for that

    And that is my worry. That they are dumb as rocks. All of them. At least you knew Blair was clever and perceptive and Brown had a massive if weird brain

    These guys? Sometimes I wonder about starmer. I mean he must be bright because he made it to DPP. I wish he’d evidence it a little more. Yet he doesn’t have a favourite novel or poem. He never dreams. He speaks of himself in the third person. He has zero sense of humour and no idea of “telling a story”. If he’s intelligent it must be a highly narrow kind of intelligence
    Says in Starmer's biography his A level grades were 2 Bs and a C. Now admittedly that included Maths and a Science which are more difficult and overall still clearly above average but does suggest he is hardly brain of Britain either.

    Intelligence wise as PM he will probably be another John Major or Jim Callaghan with a bit more metropolitan flair but not a great cultural hinterland either
    You really are an educational elitist.

    Who cares if Mr Thickie Starmer is thicker than Mr Clever Sunak? Starmer has graduated from the school of hard knocks as a child of a tradesman.
    If you believe the last sentence I have a bridge to sell you. And it is Sir Thickie if you don't mind.

    He actually ended up graduating from the rather featherbedded St Edmund Hall Oxford via the perfectly respectable Leeds University. Essentially he is middle class by any measure, but the dinosaur class obsessed Labour Party want him to be seen as a working class lad. Laughable.
    Excuse me. The class obsessed poster outraged at Starmer's mediocre higher education performance was not a member of the Labour party but a former Conservative councillor from Epping Forest.
    Yes, but you've got to give him a bit of joy ffs!

    I don't wish to be cruel, but seeing HYUFD pass judgement on people's youth-time educational attainment as though that were the only indicator of intelligence, reminds me of a fat bloke in our pub who goes on about the England players not being fit enough.
    I am not running to be PM, nor is the fat bloke in the England team. That is the job they are highly paid for.

    I also never said Starmer was thick but he is clearly not going to be in the top rank of our PMs by intelligence. Intelligence isn't the be all and end all for PMs, judgement, empathy and competence matters too but it helps
    But you supported Boris Johnson, the most stupid PM in my vast political memory, had Liz Truss not come long to make him look moderately clever. And I know, he went to Oxford. What did he do at Oxford? Classics. Sounds rather clever doesn't it, and even if you don't want to imagine that he might have been accepted in the way described in Porterhouse Blue, it should be remembered that only a tiny percentage of A-level students, even in those days, studied Latin and Greek. It was, and still is, I believe, the easiest subject area to gain access to Oxbridge colleges other than Land Economy.
    It was Boris who beat Corbyn, Boris who got Brexit done and had Boris still been leader the Tories would not be heading for near annihilation but would be on 200 seats+ with Reform well under 10% still. We therefore would have a pro Ukraine leader of the right still, not a surging Farage and his Putin apologies. The markets would not have reacted so badly to Truss' budget either as there would have been no Truss budget and no PM Kwarteng.

    So no I make NO apologies for backing Boris with his Classics degree rather than Truss and Sunak's PPE degrees. Fat lot of good they did them!
    Any muppet could have beaten Corbyn at that point, and just to remind you, you voted Remain. Boris Johnson was a liar and a law breaker; a Trump-lite who has been a disaster for the Tories and the country. It would have been so much better for everyone if Stanley had worn a condom.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,682
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Predicted, but still a disaster.
    SC overturns Chevron.

    https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/23pdf/22-451_7m58.pdf

    Possibly the worst decision this court has made, and heaven knows it's been a utter shitshow since Trump's appointments.
    It's an enormous power grab by the Court at the expense of Congress, and demonstrates a contempt for the stare decisis doctrine that is deeper than the Dodds decision.

    Kagan's dissent is well argued, and appropriately scathing. She made a point of reading it from the bench.
    Legally the argument that obstruction charges must include proof that defendants tried to tamper with or destroy documents holds some weight. It was a fairly clear 6-3 opinion in favour of the judgement as well
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,933

    Clyburn* tells Biden to 'stay the course'.

    FFS.

    Trump wins the election this weekend it seems.

    *Age 84.
    Currently serving his 16th term of office.

  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,346
    edited June 28
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    ...

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Brexit Britain could benefit from a flight to safety from the political chaos engulfing the US and EU.

    This will compensate for all the dynamic wealthy patriots who'll be leaving for Dubai due to Labour wokeness and high taxes.
    Oh please don't tell me that you, as an accountant, agree with that twat who wrote in The Guardian that we should be pleased that wealthy people are leaving.

    To alter the quote from Blackadder, many Labour voters brains are so minute , that if a hungry cannibal cracked one of their heads open, there wouldn't be enough to cover a small water biscuit.
    Yes. On this we agree. Even by the standards of the Guardian, that was one of the stupidest articles I have ever read. “Hooray all the evil wealthy tax payers are leaving. The fact they are leaving and not willing to pay massive taxes PROVES they are evil so we should be glad they’re going”

    Where do you even begin with an argument that dumb?
    Don't get sick. Don't get old. As a certain Welsh Windbag said.

    But that was said of the Tories. Labour's Britain is going to be a hell-hole of diminishing services if that "Eat the Rich!" mentality is as popular amongst the new intake as seems likely.
    My worry is not that they’re all secret or even open Marxists. They’re not clever enough for that

    And that is my worry. That they are dumb as rocks. All of them. At least you knew Blair was clever and perceptive and Brown had a massive if weird brain

    These guys? Sometimes I wonder about starmer. I mean he must be bright because he made it to DPP. I wish he’d evidence it a little more. Yet he doesn’t have a favourite novel or poem. He never dreams. He speaks of himself in the third person. He has zero sense of humour and no idea of “telling a story”. If he’s intelligent it must be a highly narrow kind of intelligence
    Says in Starmer's biography his A level grades were 2 Bs and a C. Now admittedly that included Maths and a Science which are more difficult and overall still clearly above average but does suggest he is hardly brain of Britain either.

    Intelligence wise as PM he will probably be another John Major or Jim Callaghan with a bit more metropolitan flair but not a great cultural hinterland either
    You really are an educational elitist.

    Who cares if Mr Thickie Starmer is thicker than Mr Clever Sunak? Starmer has graduated from the school of hard knocks as a child of a tradesman.
    If you believe the last sentence I have a bridge to sell you. And it is Sir Thickie if you don't mind.

    He actually ended up graduating from the rather featherbedded St Edmund Hall Oxford via the perfectly respectable Leeds University. Essentially he is middle class by any measure, but the dinosaur class obsessed Labour Party want him to be seen as a working class lad. Laughable.
    Excuse me. The class obsessed poster outraged at Starmer's mediocre higher education performance was not a member of the Labour party but a former Conservative councillor from Epping Forest.
    Yes, but you've got to give him a bit of joy ffs!

    I don't wish to be cruel, but seeing HYUFD pass judgement on people's youth-time educational attainment as though that were the only indicator of intelligence, reminds me of a fat bloke in our pub who goes on about the England players not being fit enough.
    I am not running to be PM, nor is the fat bloke in the England team. That is the job they are highly paid for.

    I also never said Starmer was thick but he is clearly not going to be in the top rank of our PMs by intelligence. Intelligence isn't the be all and end all for PMs, judgement, empathy and competence matters too but it helps
    But you supported Boris Johnson, the most stupid PM in my vast political memory, had Liz Truss not come long to make him look moderately clever. And I know, he went to Oxford. What did he do at Oxford? Classics. Sounds rather clever doesn't it, and even if you don't want to imagine that he might have been accepted in the way described in Porterhouse Blue, it should be remembered that only a tiny percentage of A-level students, even in those days, studied Latin and Greek. It was, and still is, I believe, the easiest subject area to gain access to Oxbridge colleges other than Land Economy.
    It was Boris who beat Corbyn, Boris who got Brexit done and had Boris still been leader the Tories would not be heading for near annihilation but would be on 200 seats+ with Reform well under 10% still. We therefore would have a pro Ukraine leader of the right still, not a surging Farage and his Putin apologies. The markets would not have reacted so badly to Truss' budget either as there would have been no Truss budget and no PM Kwarteng.

    So no I make NO apologies for backing Boris with his Classics degree rather than Truss and Sunak's PPE degrees. Fat lot of good they did them!
    Where does the rumour of Sunak's maths 'till 18' ability come from? Has anyone ever challenged him, Countdown style, to do some maths? It's certainly not borne out by his career as Chancellor.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,963
    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Predicted, but still a disaster.
    SC overturns Chevron.

    https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/23pdf/22-451_7m58.pdf

    Possibly the worst decision this court has made, and heaven knows it's been a utter shitshow since Trump's appointments.
    It's an enormous power grab by the Court at the expense of Congress, and demonstrates a contempt for the stare decisis doctrine that is deeper than the Dodds decision.

    Kagan's dissent is well argued, and appropriately scathing. She made a point of reading it from the bench.
    Legally the argument that obstruction charges must include proof that defendants tried to tamper with or destroy documents holds some weight. It was a fairly clear 6-3 opinion in favour of the judgement as well
    You mean a fairly partisan 6-3 opinion.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,682

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    ...

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Brexit Britain could benefit from a flight to safety from the political chaos engulfing the US and EU.

    This will compensate for all the dynamic wealthy patriots who'll be leaving for Dubai due to Labour wokeness and high taxes.
    Oh please don't tell me that you, as an accountant, agree with that twat who wrote in The Guardian that we should be pleased that wealthy people are leaving.

    To alter the quote from Blackadder, many Labour voters brains are so minute , that if a hungry cannibal cracked one of their heads open, there wouldn't be enough to cover a small water biscuit.
    Yes. On this we agree. Even by the standards of the Guardian, that was one of the stupidest articles I have ever read. “Hooray all the evil wealthy tax payers are leaving. The fact they are leaving and not willing to pay massive taxes PROVES they are evil so we should be glad they’re going”

    Where do you even begin with an argument that dumb?
    Don't get sick. Don't get old. As a certain Welsh Windbag said.

    But that was said of the Tories. Labour's Britain is going to be a hell-hole of diminishing services if that "Eat the Rich!" mentality is as popular amongst the new intake as seems likely.
    My worry is not that they’re all secret or even open Marxists. They’re not clever enough for that

    And that is my worry. That they are dumb as rocks. All of them. At least you knew Blair was clever and perceptive and Brown had a massive if weird brain

    These guys? Sometimes I wonder about starmer. I mean he must be bright because he made it to DPP. I wish he’d evidence it a little more. Yet he doesn’t have a favourite novel or poem. He never dreams. He speaks of himself in the third person. He has zero sense of humour and no idea of “telling a story”. If he’s intelligent it must be a highly narrow kind of intelligence
    Says in Starmer's biography his A level grades were 2 Bs and a C. Now admittedly that included Maths and a Science which are more difficult and overall still clearly above average but does suggest he is hardly brain of Britain either.

    Intelligence wise as PM he will probably be another John Major or Jim Callaghan with a bit more metropolitan flair but not a great cultural hinterland either
    You really are an educational elitist.

    Who cares if Mr Thickie Starmer is thicker than Mr Clever Sunak? Starmer has graduated from the school of hard knocks as a child of a tradesman.
    If you believe the last sentence I have a bridge to sell you. And it is Sir Thickie if you don't mind.

    He actually ended up graduating from the rather featherbedded St Edmund Hall Oxford via the perfectly respectable Leeds University. Essentially he is middle class by any measure, but the dinosaur class obsessed Labour Party want him to be seen as a working class lad. Laughable.
    Excuse me. The class obsessed poster outraged at Starmer's mediocre higher education performance was not a member of the Labour party but a former Conservative councillor from Epping Forest.
    Yes, but you've got to give him a bit of joy ffs!

    I don't wish to be cruel, but seeing HYUFD pass judgement on people's youth-time educational attainment as though that were the only indicator of intelligence, reminds me of a fat bloke in our pub who goes on about the England players not being fit enough.
    I am not running to be PM, nor is the fat bloke in the England team. That is the job they are highly paid for.

    I also never said Starmer was thick but he is clearly not going to be in the top rank of our PMs by intelligence. Intelligence isn't the be all and end all for PMs, judgement, empathy and competence matters too but it helps
    But you supported Boris Johnson, the most stupid PM in my vast political memory, had Liz Truss not come long to make him look moderately clever. And I know, he went to Oxford. What did he do at Oxford? Classics. Sounds rather clever doesn't it, and even if you don't want to imagine that he might have been accepted in the way described in Porterhouse Blue, it should be remembered that only a tiny percentage of A-level students, even in those days, studied Latin and Greek. It was, and still is, I believe, the easiest subject area to gain access to Oxbridge colleges other than Land Economy.
    It was Boris who beat Corbyn, Boris who got Brexit done and had Boris still been leader the Tories would not be heading for near annihilation but would be on 200 seats+ with Reform well under 10% still. We therefore would have a pro Ukraine leader of the right still, not a surging Farage and his Putin apologies. The markets would not have reacted so badly to Truss' budget either as there would have been no Truss budget and no PM Kwarteng.

    So no I make NO apologies for backing Boris with his Classics degree rather than Truss and Sunak's PPE degrees. Fat lot of good they did them!
    Any muppet could have beaten Corbyn at that point, and just to remind you, you voted Remain. Boris Johnson was a liar and a law breaker; a Trump-lite who has been a disaster for the Tories and the country. It would have been so much better for everyone if Stanley had worn a condom.
    No they couldn't, May failed to do so in 2017 and Hunt wouldn't have done either. Yes I voted Remain but I also respected the referendum result.

    On current trends all removing Boris has done is increased tenfold the chances of PM Farage within a decade instead
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,020
    edited June 28
    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Jonathan said:

    Leon said:

    darkage said:

    I don't think these attacks on Reform will work. The aim is to try and destroy them by revealing their 'true nature' but it just keeps getting shrugged off by Farage. So the attacks fail, and the by product is that the discourse is normalised. It feels like the overton window shifting.

    Yes. There is a fashion on TikTok for young kids in France and Germany to say “yeah I’m a racist so fucking what”

    The term has lost a lot of its negative power through overuse and now it has a kind of mildly transgressive chic - which kids love of course. That’s how you shock the elders these days. Say “yeah I’m a racist” on TikTok. Cue heart attack in your parents

    Saying “fuck the toreeez” and going to Glastonbury is what people like @Heathener do

    Again I don’t believe Britain will be immune from this trend, we are merely behind the curve
    Is Britain ahead, behind or on a totally different curve? Time will tell. Brexit and Johnson gave the populist mad right wing nonsense thing a bad name with anyone under 50
    My thinking is Brexit has delayed our swerve to the populist right - but not necessarily averted it. We gave people the vote and they vented their anger - that has bought us time

    With that time we need to see a proper right wing government emerge that will actually do proper right wing things. Then maybe we can dodge the whole Le Pen shit altogether -

    But if that doesn’t happen then it seems inevitable to me that we will follow Italy France Sweden the USA Holland etc
    So after 14 years of Tory government and the implementation of the totemic political project of the populist reactionary right, our next move must be to the populist reactionary right, otherwise we might swing too far to the right.

    What an unwelcome prognosis (!) for anybody on the left or centre or centre right of politics, ie the majority of people. Have you checked with them? I bet you haven't. Because what I reckon they'd say, most of them, is how about we give good government a whirl first? It's been a while since we tried that.
    I’m not saying this is great nor am I expressing a desire for this

    I am extrapolating from the facts as they are. And as we now know, I am extremely good at this

    Be afraid, be very afraid

    And now I’m going back to e-biking pointlessly around grassy Breton clifftops in the sun while listening to Jacques Loussier do Bach. Who know that could be such fun?
    You need to discover e-biking around London :smile: . An E-Brompton is required, that could stash under small tables in posh restaurants.

    Fairly eyewatering prices at £3k, but worth it and improving for the image.

    If you were a speccie columnist you could take it in, and cause the cyclopaths there to have a small fit.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,498
    A poll has Trump ahead of Biden in New Jersey!

    https://x.com/politics_polls/status/1806733244424912988
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,610

    Squawk Box

    @SquawkCNBC
    ·
    5h
    "My focus group all came in undecided from swing states, 12 of the 14 swung to Donald Trump. Only one to Joe Biden," says @FrankLuntz on how his focus group reacted to last night's debate.

    https://x.com/SquawkCNBC/status/1806646419576525260
  • MJWMJW Posts: 1,728
    rcs1000 said:

    biggles said:

    Leon said:

    Jonathan said:

    Leon said:

    darkage said:

    I don't think these attacks on Reform will work. The aim is to try and destroy them by revealing their 'true nature' but it just keeps getting shrugged off by Farage. So the attacks fail, and the by product is that the discourse is normalised. It feels like the overton window shifting.

    Yes. There is a fashion on TikTok for young kids in France and Germany to say “yeah I’m a racist so fucking what”

    The term has lost a lot of its negative power through overuse and now it has a kind of mildly transgressive chic - which kids love of course. That’s how you shock the elders these days. Say “yeah I’m a racist” on TikTok. Cue heart attack in your parents

    Saying “fuck the toreeez” and going to Glastonbury is what people like @Heathener do

    Again I don’t believe Britain will be immune from this trend, we are merely behind the curve
    Is Britain ahead, behind or on a totally different curve? Time will tell. Brexit and Johnson gave the populist mad right wing nonsense thing a bad name with anyone under 50
    My thinking is Brexit has delayed our swerve to the populist right - but not necessarily averted it. We gave people the vote and they vented their anger - that has bought us time

    With that time we need to see a proper right wing government emerge that will actually do proper right wing things. Then maybe we can dodge the whole Le Pen shit altogether -

    But if that doesn’t happen then it seems inevitable to me that we will follow Italy France Sweden the USA Holland etc
    I agree with your basic premise, it’s just that I don’t think they want right wing polices so much as a Government that does what it is told to.

    Brexit was a cry of frustration because nobody ever listened to the public saying they wanted to go no further. And then they got disenchanted that it still didn’t happen, and we got 2019.

    But I think it has led to volatility meaning Starmer isn’t guaranteed his second term, and the Tories aren’t guaranteed to replace him.
    Boris Johnson fucked up in setting the post-Brexit income thresholds too low, which resulted in far more people coming than was anticipated.

    His successors were then slow - very slow - to recognize this.

    I find it astonishing that it wasn't recognized by either Johnson or Sunak (and his Home Secretaries) that numbers coming were way above forecast, and were resulting in much higher net migration than was the case when the UK was part of the EU.

    And here Starmer is a very lucky General.

    Firstly, higher income thresholds were put in place for visas. Now, you can argue that £38,700 is still too low (or alternatively that it is far too simplistic, given that a 21 year old earning £39k is very different to a 45 year old), but it is still almost 40% above the old threshold. That means that a very substantial number of people who were eligible for visas before, are no longer eligible. And it is Starmer who who will see the benefit.

    Secondly, a large chunk of the increase in net immigration in the last three years has been student numbers. We've gone from 180k student (and dependent) visas issued a year to something like 600k. Based on experience most of those people will go home at the end of their courses. But there is an approximately three year period during which the number of students (and dependents) resident in the UK is rising fast. Once you get to the 3 or 4 year anniversary - and particularly if it is matched by smaller numbers of students coming - then the net impact falls dramatically.

    Starmer, if he does absolutely nothing, will be Prime Minister, when net immigration numbers fall quite significantly. Because maths.
    It's interesting. Starmer obviously faces huge challenges but there's also a lot of low hanging fruit the Tories were too inept/late in acting to pluck that means a Labour government could be fairly mediocre and yet run in 2029 on modest improvements on issues the public care about and ask people to stick with them over the Tories (or whatever springs up in their place if the wipeout is total).

    A second term is where Labour are most likely to fall apart as its voters start demanding the bigger things on their wishlist and their voter coalition could crack apart. It will also be when, even absent an unknown crisis or scandal, Starmer would face questions about when he would leave and thus the factionalism would be back.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,682

    A poll has Trump ahead of Biden in New Jersey!

    https://x.com/politics_polls/status/1806733244424912988

    By 1%, it was of course a largely GOP leaning state until 1992 and Christie was its governor relatively recently
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,610

    A poll has Trump ahead of Biden in New Jersey!

    https://x.com/politics_polls/status/1806733244424912988

    Maybe the polls will persuade the Dems to grit their teeth and get this done. Biden can't run.
  • PedestrianRockPedestrianRock Posts: 580
    Nunu5 said:

    Omg this poll is in line with pp
    Lab: 38%
    Ref: 21%
    Con: 18%
    LD: 11%

    No idea if the Daily Express pollster is any good.

    But Baxtered it gives something like

    LABOUR 453
    LD 74
    CON 50
    REF 29 (!)
    GREEN 3
    SNP 18



  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,289
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    ...

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Brexit Britain could benefit from a flight to safety from the political chaos engulfing the US and EU.

    This will compensate for all the dynamic wealthy patriots who'll be leaving for Dubai due to Labour wokeness and high taxes.
    Oh please don't tell me that you, as an accountant, agree with that twat who wrote in The Guardian that we should be pleased that wealthy people are leaving.

    To alter the quote from Blackadder, many Labour voters brains are so minute , that if a hungry cannibal cracked one of their heads open, there wouldn't be enough to cover a small water biscuit.
    Yes. On this we agree. Even by the standards of the Guardian, that was one of the stupidest articles I have ever read. “Hooray all the evil wealthy tax payers are leaving. The fact they are leaving and not willing to pay massive taxes PROVES they are evil so we should be glad they’re going”

    Where do you even begin with an argument that dumb?
    Don't get sick. Don't get old. As a certain Welsh Windbag said.

    But that was said of the Tories. Labour's Britain is going to be a hell-hole of diminishing services if that "Eat the Rich!" mentality is as popular amongst the new intake as seems likely.
    My worry is not that they’re all secret or even open Marxists. They’re not clever enough for that

    And that is my worry. That they are dumb as rocks. All of them. At least you knew Blair was clever and perceptive and Brown had a massive if weird brain

    These guys? Sometimes I wonder about starmer. I mean he must be bright because he made it to DPP. I wish he’d evidence it a little more. Yet he doesn’t have a favourite novel or poem. He never dreams. He speaks of himself in the third person. He has zero sense of humour and no idea of “telling a story”. If he’s intelligent it must be a highly narrow kind of intelligence
    Says in Starmer's biography his A level grades were 2 Bs and a C. Now admittedly that included Maths and a Science which are more difficult and overall still clearly above average but does suggest he is hardly brain of Britain either.

    Intelligence wise as PM he will probably be another John Major or Jim Callaghan with a bit more metropolitan flair but not a great cultural hinterland either
    You really are an educational elitist.

    Who cares if Mr Thickie Starmer is thicker than Mr Clever Sunak? Starmer has graduated from the school of hard knocks as a child of a tradesman.
    If you believe the last sentence I have a bridge to sell you. And it is Sir Thickie if you don't mind.

    He actually ended up graduating from the rather featherbedded St Edmund Hall Oxford via the perfectly respectable Leeds University. Essentially he is middle class by any measure, but the dinosaur class obsessed Labour Party want him to be seen as a working class lad. Laughable.
    Excuse me. The class obsessed poster outraged at Starmer's mediocre higher education performance was not a member of the Labour party but a former Conservative councillor from Epping Forest.
    Yes, but you've got to give him a bit of joy ffs!

    I don't wish to be cruel, but seeing HYUFD pass judgement on people's youth-time educational attainment as though that were the only indicator of intelligence, reminds me of a fat bloke in our pub who goes on about the England players not being fit enough.
    I am not running to be PM, nor is the fat bloke in the England team. That is the job they are highly paid for.

    I also never said Starmer was thick but he is clearly not going to be in the top rank of our PMs by intelligence. Intelligence isn't the be all and end all for PMs, judgement, empathy and competence matters too but it helps
    But you supported Boris Johnson, the most stupid PM in my vast political memory, had Liz Truss not come long to make him look moderately clever. And I know, he went to Oxford. What did he do at Oxford? Classics. Sounds rather clever doesn't it, and even if you don't want to imagine that he might have been accepted in the way described in Porterhouse Blue, it should be remembered that only a tiny percentage of A-level students, even in those days, studied Latin and Greek. It was, and still is, I believe, the easiest subject area to gain access to Oxbridge colleges other than Land Economy.
    It was Boris who beat Corbyn, Boris who got Brexit done and had Boris still been leader the Tories would not be heading for near annihilation but would be on 200 seats+ with Reform well under 10% still. We therefore would have a pro Ukraine leader of the right still, not a surging Farage and his Putin apologies. The markets would not have reacted so badly to Truss' budget either as there would have been no Truss budget and no PM Kwarteng.

    So no I make NO apologies for backing Boris with his Classics degree rather than Truss and Sunak's PPE degrees. Fat lot of good they did them!
    Any muppet could have beaten Corbyn at that point, and just to remind you, you voted Remain. Boris Johnson was a liar and a law breaker; a Trump-lite who has been a disaster for the Tories and the country. It would have been so much better for everyone if Stanley had worn a condom.
    No they couldn't, May failed to do so in 2017 and Hunt wouldn't have done either. Yes I voted Remain but I also respected the referendum result.

    On current trends all removing Boris has done is increased tenfold the chances of PM Farage within a decade instead
    God, you are so deluded. You said in a previous post that you are not applying to be PM. Let us just rejoice at that news.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,955
    rcs1000 said:

    Boris Johnson fucked up

    More concise...
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,963

    kyf_100 said:

    Nunu5 said:

    Wow. Big mistake from Starmer, says he won't continue with 25% tax free allowance for pensions

    He's gonna tax and tax and tax and tax and tax.

    Then tax some more. You were warned.
    They’ve explained it away and in fairness it seems plausible

    https://amp.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/28/stamp-duty-for-first-time-buyers-would-rise-in-2025-under-labour-government

    As far as I can tell, the 25% tax free allowance doesn’t have any sort of expiry date, so perhaps he actually misspoke.

    I don’t deny that they are going to tax way more than they’re currently saying, but I don’t really have an issue with that.

    Speaking as someone who is likely younger than a lot of other PBers, it’s been frustrating as all hell to see how this country has become lucrative as anything for a small segment of the population who all bought their houses 30 years ago for about £10, went to university for free, and now spend their days opposing everything that could possibly bring some more growth so we can bloody well pay for their pensions.

    The Tory government that has continually bribed the grey vote has on the other hand imposed a de facto graduate tax on the young, and frankly, the Tory vote share amongst people under 50 should absolutely terrify all Tories who want a return to government anytime soon.

    I say this all as someone who has done pretty decently for themselves so far - this imbalance will define the next generation of politics. I have a lot of friends who are seriously contemplating more lucrative moves abroad - and most of them don’t even work in careers where that’s a common occurrence!

    TL;DR if Starmer has a secret tax agenda - good - and unlike a lot of people who might say this I have no problems paying more tax myself either, if it’s coupled with fixing some long standing problems (the ridiculousness of how Council Tax is lower for Buckingham Palace than for 46% of households in the country - despite the fact that a ton of it is funding Adult Social Care - it doesn’t make any sense!!!) https://x.com/pjtheeconomist/status/1753361450809110922?s=46

    Labour have the chance of a lifetime to use a supermajority to get all the unpopular things done quickly. I am not necessarily convinced they will - and if they squander it I will certainly look elsewhere in 2029.
    End the CGT exemption for primary residences. Watch the boomers squeal.
    A sizeable number of people see a country where they bought a semi detached house for £130,000 in 1995 off a single person’s salary, see it be worth £963,000 in 2024, and then are bloody outraged that the state should perhaps take a bit of that in a country when they pass it down to their children, whilst millions of people are living with their parents in their 30s and 40s and may never own a home. “Can’t we cut benefits instead?” they ask.

    No need to increase taxes, just construction and get prices back down to £130k and affordable off a single person's salary let alone a full time couple being unable to afford a deposit. Problem solved.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,484
    Flanner said:

    Travelled from Totnes to London Paddington this morning - and in nearly three hours of train travel, never saw a single political poster.

    What election?

    Why would anyone expect to see political posters from a train anyway? The view from trains is almost entirely the back of houses, green and virtually uninhabited countryside - or HS2 construction works. Political posters go into front windows or onto stakes at front doors.

    My station's on a line from Paddington too.. And I've scarcely seen a political poster from that line in 25 years. But walk the ten minutes from the station to our house, and you'll be inundated with LD and Labour posters in what's been a safe Tory seat throughout every voter's lifetime..

    What makes this election different is the remarkable number of Labour posters (because boundary changes make a Labour win here dramatically less improbable than any other time this century) and the spectacular absence of Tory ones. Many of those Tory posters used to go into fields empty of any animals but cows - and the silent rebellion of Britain's tenant farmers against their Tory-voting landlords isn't a sign of apathy, but one more reason the Tories are about to be shellacked.
    When the Tories have even lost the cows' vote, they are well and truly, er, burgered.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,039
    Farooq said:

    Anybody who claims the a tide of political opinion in the medium or distant future going inevitably this way or that is talking out of their arse. There are no tides, there is no whig history or a bastard cousin thereof.

    Anybody who wishcasts their own views as inevitable under the flimsy disguise of regret is trying to demoralise political opponents into inaction or anticipatory obedience: fight back against that shit.

    Anybody who has to claim they are "extreme good at this" is trying to convince themselves as much as anyone else.

    On the day that my long held prediction that: Biden is senile, it’s going to get worse, ignoring it is stupid and will end in disaster - has come spectacularly true (despite much mockery on here throughout) - this comment doesn’t really have the impact you hope

    For some reason I am good at spotting random facts and quickly working out their inevitable consequences, meaning, end. I’m not sure why. I wonder if it’s because I’m good at plotting stories to tell my kids. That’s a form of extrapolation - the plot has to work

    I am absolutely shit at turning this gift of historical-political extrapolation into money, which is quite frustrating
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,682

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    ...

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Brexit Britain could benefit from a flight to safety from the political chaos engulfing the US and EU.

    This will compensate for all the dynamic wealthy patriots who'll be leaving for Dubai due to Labour wokeness and high taxes.
    Oh please don't tell me that you, as an accountant, agree with that twat who wrote in The Guardian that we should be pleased that wealthy people are leaving.

    To alter the quote from Blackadder, many Labour voters brains are so minute , that if a hungry cannibal cracked one of their heads open, there wouldn't be enough to cover a small water biscuit.
    Yes. On this we agree. Even by the standards of the Guardian, that was one of the stupidest articles I have ever read. “Hooray all the evil wealthy tax payers are leaving. The fact they are leaving and not willing to pay massive taxes PROVES they are evil so we should be glad they’re going”

    Where do you even begin with an argument that dumb?
    Don't get sick. Don't get old. As a certain Welsh Windbag said.

    But that was said of the Tories. Labour's Britain is going to be a hell-hole of diminishing services if that "Eat the Rich!" mentality is as popular amongst the new intake as seems likely.
    My worry is not that they’re all secret or even open Marxists. They’re not clever enough for that

    And that is my worry. That they are dumb as rocks. All of them. At least you knew Blair was clever and perceptive and Brown had a massive if weird brain

    These guys? Sometimes I wonder about starmer. I mean he must be bright because he made it to DPP. I wish he’d evidence it a little more. Yet he doesn’t have a favourite novel or poem. He never dreams. He speaks of himself in the third person. He has zero sense of humour and no idea of “telling a story”. If he’s intelligent it must be a highly narrow kind of intelligence
    Says in Starmer's biography his A level grades were 2 Bs and a C. Now admittedly that included Maths and a Science which are more difficult and overall still clearly above average but does suggest he is hardly brain of Britain either.

    Intelligence wise as PM he will probably be another John Major or Jim Callaghan with a bit more metropolitan flair but not a great cultural hinterland either
    You really are an educational elitist.

    Who cares if Mr Thickie Starmer is thicker than Mr Clever Sunak? Starmer has graduated from the school of hard knocks as a child of a tradesman.
    If you believe the last sentence I have a bridge to sell you. And it is Sir Thickie if you don't mind.

    He actually ended up graduating from the rather featherbedded St Edmund Hall Oxford via the perfectly respectable Leeds University. Essentially he is middle class by any measure, but the dinosaur class obsessed Labour Party want him to be seen as a working class lad. Laughable.
    Excuse me. The class obsessed poster outraged at Starmer's mediocre higher education performance was not a member of the Labour party but a former Conservative councillor from Epping Forest.
    Yes, but you've got to give him a bit of joy ffs!

    I don't wish to be cruel, but seeing HYUFD pass judgement on people's youth-time educational attainment as though that were the only indicator of intelligence, reminds me of a fat bloke in our pub who goes on about the England players not being fit enough.
    I am not running to be PM, nor is the fat bloke in the England team. That is the job they are highly paid for.

    I also never said Starmer was thick but he is clearly not going to be in the top rank of our PMs by intelligence. Intelligence isn't the be all and end all for PMs, judgement, empathy and competence matters too but it helps
    But you supported Boris Johnson, the most stupid PM in my vast political memory, had Liz Truss not come long to make him look moderately clever. And I know, he went to Oxford. What did he do at Oxford? Classics. Sounds rather clever doesn't it, and even if you don't want to imagine that he might have been accepted in the way described in Porterhouse Blue, it should be remembered that only a tiny percentage of A-level students, even in those days, studied Latin and Greek. It was, and still is, I believe, the easiest subject area to gain access to Oxbridge colleges other than Land Economy.
    It was Boris who beat Corbyn, Boris who got Brexit done and had Boris still been leader the Tories would not be heading for near annihilation but would be on 200 seats+ with Reform well under 10% still. We therefore would have a pro Ukraine leader of the right still, not a surging Farage and his Putin apologies. The markets would not have reacted so badly to Truss' budget either as there would have been no Truss budget and no PM Kwarteng.

    So no I make NO apologies for backing Boris with his Classics degree rather than Truss and Sunak's PPE degrees. Fat lot of good they did them!
    Any muppet could have beaten Corbyn at that point, and just to remind you, you voted Remain. Boris Johnson was a liar and a law breaker; a Trump-lite who has been a disaster for the Tories and the country. It would have been so much better for everyone if Stanley had worn a condom.
    No they couldn't, May failed to do so in 2017 and Hunt wouldn't have done either. Yes I voted Remain but I also respected the referendum result.

    On current trends all removing Boris has done is increased tenfold the chances of PM Farage within a decade instead
    God, you are so deluded. You said in a previous post that you are not applying to be PM. Let us just rejoice at that news.
    You will probably get PM Farage within a decade instead as I said and thoroughly deserve it!
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,289

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    ...

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Brexit Britain could benefit from a flight to safety from the political chaos engulfing the US and EU.

    This will compensate for all the dynamic wealthy patriots who'll be leaving for Dubai due to Labour wokeness and high taxes.
    Oh please don't tell me that you, as an accountant, agree with that twat who wrote in The Guardian that we should be pleased that wealthy people are leaving.

    To alter the quote from Blackadder, many Labour voters brains are so minute , that if a hungry cannibal cracked one of their heads open, there wouldn't be enough to cover a small water biscuit.
    Yes. On this we agree. Even by the standards of the Guardian, that was one of the stupidest articles I have ever read. “Hooray all the evil wealthy tax payers are leaving. The fact they are leaving and not willing to pay massive taxes PROVES they are evil so we should be glad they’re going”

    Where do you even begin with an argument that dumb?
    Don't get sick. Don't get old. As a certain Welsh Windbag said.

    But that was said of the Tories. Labour's Britain is going to be a hell-hole of diminishing services if that "Eat the Rich!" mentality is as popular amongst the new intake as seems likely.
    My worry is not that they’re all secret or even open Marxists. They’re not clever enough for that

    And that is my worry. That they are dumb as rocks. All of them. At least you knew Blair was clever and perceptive and Brown had a massive if weird brain

    These guys? Sometimes I wonder about starmer. I mean he must be bright because he made it to DPP. I wish he’d evidence it a little more. Yet he doesn’t have a favourite novel or poem. He never dreams. He speaks of himself in the third person. He has zero sense of humour and no idea of “telling a story”. If he’s intelligent it must be a highly narrow kind of intelligence
    Says in Starmer's biography his A level grades were 2 Bs and a C. Now admittedly that included Maths and a Science which are more difficult and overall still clearly above average but does suggest he is hardly brain of Britain either.

    Intelligence wise as PM he will probably be another John Major or Jim Callaghan with a bit more metropolitan flair but not a great cultural hinterland either
    You really are an educational elitist.

    Who cares if Mr Thickie Starmer is thicker than Mr Clever Sunak? Starmer has graduated from the school of hard knocks as a child of a tradesman.
    If you believe the last sentence I have a bridge to sell you. And it is Sir Thickie if you don't mind.

    He actually ended up graduating from the rather featherbedded St Edmund Hall Oxford via the perfectly respectable Leeds University. Essentially he is middle class by any measure, but the dinosaur class obsessed Labour Party want him to be seen as a working class lad. Laughable.
    Excuse me. The class obsessed poster outraged at Starmer's mediocre higher education performance was not a member of the Labour party but a former Conservative councillor from Epping Forest.
    Yes, but you've got to give him a bit of joy ffs!

    I don't wish to be cruel, but seeing HYUFD pass judgement on people's youth-time educational attainment as though that were the only indicator of intelligence, reminds me of a fat bloke in our pub who goes on about the England players not being fit enough.
    I am not running to be PM, nor is the fat bloke in the England team. That is the job they are highly paid for.

    I also never said Starmer was thick but he is clearly not going to be in the top rank of our PMs by intelligence. Intelligence isn't the be all and end all for PMs, judgement, empathy and competence matters too but it helps
    But you supported Boris Johnson, the most stupid PM in my vast political memory, had Liz Truss not come long to make him look moderately clever. And I know, he went to Oxford. What did he do at Oxford? Classics. Sounds rather clever doesn't it, and even if you don't want to imagine that he might have been accepted in the way described in Porterhouse Blue, it should be remembered that only a tiny percentage of A-level students, even in those days, studied Latin and Greek. It was, and still is, I believe, the easiest subject area to gain access to Oxbridge colleges other than Land Economy.
    It was Boris who beat Corbyn, Boris who got Brexit done and had Boris still been leader the Tories would not be heading for near annihilation but would be on 200 seats+ with Reform well under 10% still. We therefore would have a pro Ukraine leader of the right still, not a surging Farage and his Putin apologies. The markets would not have reacted so badly to Truss' budget either as there would have been no Truss budget and no PM Kwarteng.

    So no I make NO apologies for backing Boris with his Classics degree rather than Truss and Sunak's PPE degrees. Fat lot of good they did them!
    Where does the rumour of Sunak's maths 'till 18' ability come from? Has anyone ever challenged him, Countdown style, to do some maths? It's certainly not borne out by his career as Chancellor.
    Many businesses would no longer exist if he hadn't intervened during the pandemic. With Hunt he has also done a pretty good job in stabilising things since the Truss clusterfuck and inflation is now in a good place. None of this is noticed of course, because the herd is not nuanced enough.
  • Nunu5Nunu5 Posts: 963

    Nunu5 said:

    Omg this poll is in line with pp
    Lab: 38%
    Ref: 21%
    Con: 18%
    LD: 11%

    No idea if the Daily Express pollster is any good.

    But Baxtered it gives something like

    LABOUR 453
    LD 74
    CON 50
    REF 29 (!)
    GREEN 3
    SNP 18



    I could see a CON-REFORM deal to be the main opposition under those numbers.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,963
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    ...

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Brexit Britain could benefit from a flight to safety from the political chaos engulfing the US and EU.

    This will compensate for all the dynamic wealthy patriots who'll be leaving for Dubai due to Labour wokeness and high taxes.
    Oh please don't tell me that you, as an accountant, agree with that twat who wrote in The Guardian that we should be pleased that wealthy people are leaving.

    To alter the quote from Blackadder, many Labour voters brains are so minute , that if a hungry cannibal cracked one of their heads open, there wouldn't be enough to cover a small water biscuit.
    Yes. On this we agree. Even by the standards of the Guardian, that was one of the stupidest articles I have ever read. “Hooray all the evil wealthy tax payers are leaving. The fact they are leaving and not willing to pay massive taxes PROVES they are evil so we should be glad they’re going”

    Where do you even begin with an argument that dumb?
    Don't get sick. Don't get old. As a certain Welsh Windbag said.

    But that was said of the Tories. Labour's Britain is going to be a hell-hole of diminishing services if that "Eat the Rich!" mentality is as popular amongst the new intake as seems likely.
    My worry is not that they’re all secret or even open Marxists. They’re not clever enough for that

    And that is my worry. That they are dumb as rocks. All of them. At least you knew Blair was clever and perceptive and Brown had a massive if weird brain

    These guys? Sometimes I wonder about starmer. I mean he must be bright because he made it to DPP. I wish he’d evidence it a little more. Yet he doesn’t have a favourite novel or poem. He never dreams. He speaks of himself in the third person. He has zero sense of humour and no idea of “telling a story”. If he’s intelligent it must be a highly narrow kind of intelligence
    Says in Starmer's biography his A level grades were 2 Bs and a C. Now admittedly that included Maths and a Science which are more difficult and overall still clearly above average but does suggest he is hardly brain of Britain either.

    Intelligence wise as PM he will probably be another John Major or Jim Callaghan with a bit more metropolitan flair but not a great cultural hinterland either
    You really are an educational elitist.

    Who cares if Mr Thickie Starmer is thicker than Mr Clever Sunak? Starmer has graduated from the school of hard knocks as a child of a tradesman.
    If you believe the last sentence I have a bridge to sell you. And it is Sir Thickie if you don't mind.

    He actually ended up graduating from the rather featherbedded St Edmund Hall Oxford via the perfectly respectable Leeds University. Essentially he is middle class by any measure, but the dinosaur class obsessed Labour Party want him to be seen as a working class lad. Laughable.
    Excuse me. The class obsessed poster outraged at Starmer's mediocre higher education performance was not a member of the Labour party but a former Conservative councillor from Epping Forest.
    Yes, but you've got to give him a bit of joy ffs!

    I don't wish to be cruel, but seeing HYUFD pass judgement on people's youth-time educational attainment as though that were the only indicator of intelligence, reminds me of a fat bloke in our pub who goes on about the England players not being fit enough.
    I am not running to be PM, nor is the fat bloke in the England team. That is the job they are highly paid for.

    I also never said Starmer was thick but he is clearly not going to be in the top rank of our PMs by intelligence. Intelligence isn't the be all and end all for PMs, judgement, empathy and competence matters too but it helps
    But you supported Boris Johnson, the most stupid PM in my vast political memory, had Liz Truss not come long to make him look moderately clever. And I know, he went to Oxford. What did he do at Oxford? Classics. Sounds rather clever doesn't it, and even if you don't want to imagine that he might have been accepted in the way described in Porterhouse Blue, it should be remembered that only a tiny percentage of A-level students, even in those days, studied Latin and Greek. It was, and still is, I believe, the easiest subject area to gain access to Oxbridge colleges other than Land Economy.
    It was Boris who beat Corbyn, Boris who got Brexit done and had Boris still been leader the Tories would not be heading for near annihilation but would be on 200 seats+ with Reform well under 10% still. We therefore would have a pro Ukraine leader of the right still, not a surging Farage and his Putin apologies. The markets would not have reacted so badly to Truss' budget either as there would have been no Truss budget and no PM Kwarteng.

    So no I make NO apologies for backing Boris with his Classics degree rather than Truss and Sunak's PPE degrees. Fat lot of good they did them!
    Any muppet could have beaten Corbyn at that point, and just to remind you, you voted Remain. Boris Johnson was a liar and a law breaker; a Trump-lite who has been a disaster for the Tories and the country. It would have been so much better for everyone if Stanley had worn a condom.
    No they couldn't, May failed to do so in 2017 and Hunt wouldn't have done either. Yes I voted Remain but I also respected the referendum result.

    On current trends all removing Boris has done is increased tenfold the chances of PM Farage within a decade instead
    God, you are so deluded. You said in a previous post that you are not applying to be PM. Let us just rejoice at that news.
    You will probably get PM Farage within a decade instead as I said and thoroughly deserve it!
    This country is never going to elect that fascist, racist and quite right so!
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,389

    Nunu5 said:

    Wow. Big mistake from Starmer, says he won't continue with 25% tax free allowance for pensions

    He's gonna tax and tax and tax and tax and tax.

    Then tax some more. You were warned.
    They’ve explained it away and in fairness it seems plausible

    https://amp.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/28/stamp-duty-for-first-time-buyers-would-rise-in-2025-under-labour-government

    As far as I can tell, the 25% tax free allowance doesn’t have any sort of expiry date, so perhaps he actually misspoke.

    I don’t deny that they are going to tax way more than they’re currently saying, but I don’t really have an issue with that.

    Speaking as someone who is likely younger than a lot of other PBers, it’s been frustrating as all hell to see how this country has become lucrative as anything for a small segment of the population who all bought their houses 30 years ago for about £10, went to university for free, and now spend their days opposing everything that could possibly bring some more growth so we can bloody well pay for their pensions.

    The Tory government that has continually bribed the grey vote has on the other hand, among many other measures, imposed a de facto graduate tax on the young, and frankly, the Tory vote share amongst people under 50 should absolutely terrify all Tories who want a return to government anytime soon.

    I say this all as someone who has done pretty decently for themselves so far - this imbalance will define the next generation of politics. I have a lot of friends who are seriously contemplating more lucrative moves abroad - and most of them don’t even work in careers where that’s a common occurrence!

    And yet some people would prefer to live in a country where they can sit like Smaug atop their pile of Gold, complain that the young don’t know the meaning of hard work, and enjoy a lifestyle of being slightly well-off in a country where nothing bloody works properly, and the young who support their lifestyle have all fled for pastures new. But it’s okay - at least the modern train that could aid the nation’s economy won’t be within 2 miles of their house, blocking the views - we absolutely couldn’t have that!

    TL;DR if Starmer has a secret tax agenda - good - and unlike a lot of people who might say this I have no problems paying more tax myself either, if it’s coupled with fixing some long standing problems (the ridiculousness of how Council Tax is lower for Buckingham Palace than for 46% of households in the country - despite the fact that a ton of it is funding Adult Social Care - it doesn’t make any sense!!!) https://x.com/pjtheeconomist/status/1753361450809110922?s=46

    Labour have the chance of a lifetime to use a supermajority to get all the unpopular things done quickly. I am not necessarily convinced they will - and if they squander it I will certainly look elsewhere in 2029.
    I would guess that labour will be excessively cautious in practice. Who else do you expect to vote for? All parties target the same demographic.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,037

    A poll has Trump ahead of Biden in New Jersey!

    https://x.com/politics_polls/status/1806733244424912988

    It is worth noting that Co/efficient is the pollster that the Trump campaign contracts to perform polls. It is also worth noting that Co/efficient was almost the only pollster showing Kari Lake ahead (and by a large margin too) in the 2022 Arizona race.

    Doesn't mean they are wrong, but you do need to bear this in mind.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,453


    Someone was writing about the scenario where if the LD’s were close to the Tories in seats and then a few Lab MPs defected so the LD’s had more seats that the Tories and so became the Official Opposition. Has this ever happened before, as in the opposition changing control outside of an election? Sorry if I missed it being mentioned before.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,682


    Squawk Box

    @SquawkCNBC
    ·
    5h
    "My focus group all came in undecided from swing states, 12 of the 14 swung to Donald Trump. Only one to Joe Biden," says @FrankLuntz on how his focus group reacted to last night's debate.

    https://x.com/SquawkCNBC/status/1806646419576525260

    One swinging to Biden is better than would have been expected
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    Just took a look at Daily Mail webpage front and you can barely see the articles for massive adverts for Reform on all sides.

    Someone has money.

    Source of Reform funding?????
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,289

    Flanner said:

    Travelled from Totnes to London Paddington this morning - and in nearly three hours of train travel, never saw a single political poster.

    What election?

    Why would anyone expect to see political posters from a train anyway? The view from trains is almost entirely the back of houses, green and virtually uninhabited countryside - or HS2 construction works. Political posters go into front windows or onto stakes at front doors.

    My station's on a line from Paddington too.. And I've scarcely seen a political poster from that line in 25 years. But walk the ten minutes from the station to our house, and you'll be inundated with LD and Labour posters in what's been a safe Tory seat throughout every voter's lifetime..

    What makes this election different is the remarkable number of Labour posters (because boundary changes make a Labour win here dramatically less improbable than any other time this century) and the spectacular absence of Tory ones. Many of those Tory posters used to go into fields empty of any animals but cows - and the silent rebellion of Britain's tenant farmers against their Tory-voting landlords isn't a sign of apathy, but one more reason the Tories are about to be shellacked.
    When the Tories have even lost the cows' vote, they are well and truly, er, burgered.
    They have decided to vote for the udder party
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,682
    edited June 28
    boulay said:



    Someone was writing about the scenario where if the LD’s were close to the Tories in seats and then a few Lab MPs defected so the LD’s had more seats that the Tories and so became the Official Opposition. Has this ever happened before, as in the opposition changing control outside of an election? Sorry if I missed it being mentioned before.

    In that scenario the Tories would merge with Reform within a year unless we got PR
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,610
    HYUFD said:


    Squawk Box

    @SquawkCNBC
    ·
    5h
    "My focus group all came in undecided from swing states, 12 of the 14 swung to Donald Trump. Only one to Joe Biden," says @FrankLuntz on how his focus group reacted to last night's debate.

    https://x.com/SquawkCNBC/status/1806646419576525260

    One swinging to Biden is better than would have been expected
    Probably just pressed the wrong button.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,963

    Flanner said:

    Travelled from Totnes to London Paddington this morning - and in nearly three hours of train travel, never saw a single political poster.

    What election?

    Why would anyone expect to see political posters from a train anyway? The view from trains is almost entirely the back of houses, green and virtually uninhabited countryside - or HS2 construction works. Political posters go into front windows or onto stakes at front doors.

    My station's on a line from Paddington too.. And I've scarcely seen a political poster from that line in 25 years. But walk the ten minutes from the station to our house, and you'll be inundated with LD and Labour posters in what's been a safe Tory seat throughout every voter's lifetime..

    What makes this election different is the remarkable number of Labour posters (because boundary changes make a Labour win here dramatically less improbable than any other time this century) and the spectacular absence of Tory ones. Many of those Tory posters used to go into fields empty of any animals but cows - and the silent rebellion of Britain's tenant farmers against their Tory-voting landlords isn't a sign of apathy, but one more reason the Tories are about to be shellacked.
    When the Tories have even lost the cows' vote, they are well and truly, er, burgered.
    They have decided to vote for the udder party
    That could be a big moo-steak.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,270
    HYUFD said:

    boulay said:



    Someone was writing about the scenario where if the LD’s were close to the Tories in seats and then a few Lab MPs defected so the LD’s had more seats that the Tories and so became the Official Opposition. Has this ever happened before, as in the opposition changing control outside of an election? Sorry if I missed it being mentioned before.

    In that scenario the Tories would merge with Reform within a year unless we got PR
    And a few Tory MPs would also shift to the Lib Dems...

    Remember that for many people Reform are toxic....
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,289
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    ...

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Brexit Britain could benefit from a flight to safety from the political chaos engulfing the US and EU.

    This will compensate for all the dynamic wealthy patriots who'll be leaving for Dubai due to Labour wokeness and high taxes.
    Oh please don't tell me that you, as an accountant, agree with that twat who wrote in The Guardian that we should be pleased that wealthy people are leaving.

    To alter the quote from Blackadder, many Labour voters brains are so minute , that if a hungry cannibal cracked one of their heads open, there wouldn't be enough to cover a small water biscuit.
    Yes. On this we agree. Even by the standards of the Guardian, that was one of the stupidest articles I have ever read. “Hooray all the evil wealthy tax payers are leaving. The fact they are leaving and not willing to pay massive taxes PROVES they are evil so we should be glad they’re going”

    Where do you even begin with an argument that dumb?
    Don't get sick. Don't get old. As a certain Welsh Windbag said.

    But that was said of the Tories. Labour's Britain is going to be a hell-hole of diminishing services if that "Eat the Rich!" mentality is as popular amongst the new intake as seems likely.
    My worry is not that they’re all secret or even open Marxists. They’re not clever enough for that

    And that is my worry. That they are dumb as rocks. All of them. At least you knew Blair was clever and perceptive and Brown had a massive if weird brain

    These guys? Sometimes I wonder about starmer. I mean he must be bright because he made it to DPP. I wish he’d evidence it a little more. Yet he doesn’t have a favourite novel or poem. He never dreams. He speaks of himself in the third person. He has zero sense of humour and no idea of “telling a story”. If he’s intelligent it must be a highly narrow kind of intelligence
    Says in Starmer's biography his A level grades were 2 Bs and a C. Now admittedly that included Maths and a Science which are more difficult and overall still clearly above average but does suggest he is hardly brain of Britain either.

    Intelligence wise as PM he will probably be another John Major or Jim Callaghan with a bit more metropolitan flair but not a great cultural hinterland either
    You really are an educational elitist.

    Who cares if Mr Thickie Starmer is thicker than Mr Clever Sunak? Starmer has graduated from the school of hard knocks as a child of a tradesman.
    If you believe the last sentence I have a bridge to sell you. And it is Sir Thickie if you don't mind.

    He actually ended up graduating from the rather featherbedded St Edmund Hall Oxford via the perfectly respectable Leeds University. Essentially he is middle class by any measure, but the dinosaur class obsessed Labour Party want him to be seen as a working class lad. Laughable.
    Excuse me. The class obsessed poster outraged at Starmer's mediocre higher education performance was not a member of the Labour party but a former Conservative councillor from Epping Forest.
    Yes, but you've got to give him a bit of joy ffs!

    I don't wish to be cruel, but seeing HYUFD pass judgement on people's youth-time educational attainment as though that were the only indicator of intelligence, reminds me of a fat bloke in our pub who goes on about the England players not being fit enough.
    I am not running to be PM, nor is the fat bloke in the England team. That is the job they are highly paid for.

    I also never said Starmer was thick but he is clearly not going to be in the top rank of our PMs by intelligence. Intelligence isn't the be all and end all for PMs, judgement, empathy and competence matters too but it helps
    But you supported Boris Johnson, the most stupid PM in my vast political memory, had Liz Truss not come long to make him look moderately clever. And I know, he went to Oxford. What did he do at Oxford? Classics. Sounds rather clever doesn't it, and even if you don't want to imagine that he might have been accepted in the way described in Porterhouse Blue, it should be remembered that only a tiny percentage of A-level students, even in those days, studied Latin and Greek. It was, and still is, I believe, the easiest subject area to gain access to Oxbridge colleges other than Land Economy.
    It was Boris who beat Corbyn, Boris who got Brexit done and had Boris still been leader the Tories would not be heading for near annihilation but would be on 200 seats+ with Reform well under 10% still. We therefore would have a pro Ukraine leader of the right still, not a surging Farage and his Putin apologies. The markets would not have reacted so badly to Truss' budget either as there would have been no Truss budget and no PM Kwarteng.

    So no I make NO apologies for backing Boris with his Classics degree rather than Truss and Sunak's PPE degrees. Fat lot of good they did them!
    Any muppet could have beaten Corbyn at that point, and just to remind you, you voted Remain. Boris Johnson was a liar and a law breaker; a Trump-lite who has been a disaster for the Tories and the country. It would have been so much better for everyone if Stanley had worn a condom.
    No they couldn't, May failed to do so in 2017 and Hunt wouldn't have done either. Yes I voted Remain but I also respected the referendum result.

    On current trends all removing Boris has done is increased tenfold the chances of PM Farage within a decade instead
    God, you are so deluded. You said in a previous post that you are not applying to be PM. Let us just rejoice at that news.
    You will probably get PM Farage within a decade instead as I said and thoroughly deserve it!
    Playground stuff HY. Boris Johnson was a cretin and a buffoon. Most people have woken up to that. Keep taking the tablets.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,682
    edited June 28

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    ...

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Brexit Britain could benefit from a flight to safety from the political chaos engulfing the US and EU.

    This will compensate for all the dynamic wealthy patriots who'll be leaving for Dubai due to Labour wokeness and high taxes.
    Oh please don't tell me that you, as an accountant, agree with that twat who wrote in The Guardian that we should be pleased that wealthy people are leaving.

    To alter the quote from Blackadder, many Labour voters brains are so minute , that if a hungry cannibal cracked one of their heads open, there wouldn't be enough to cover a small water biscuit.
    Yes. On this we agree. Even by the standards of the Guardian, that was one of the stupidest articles I have ever read. “Hooray all the evil wealthy tax payers are leaving. The fact they are leaving and not willing to pay massive taxes PROVES they are evil so we should be glad they’re going”

    Where do you even begin with an argument that dumb?
    Don't get sick. Don't get old. As a certain Welsh Windbag said.

    But that was said of the Tories. Labour's Britain is going to be a hell-hole of diminishing services if that "Eat the Rich!" mentality is as popular amongst the new intake as seems likely.
    My worry is not that they’re all secret or even open Marxists. They’re not clever enough for that

    And that is my worry. That they are dumb as rocks. All of them. At least you knew Blair was clever and perceptive and Brown had a massive if weird brain

    These guys? Sometimes I wonder about starmer. I mean he must be bright because he made it to DPP. I wish he’d evidence it a little more. Yet he doesn’t have a favourite novel or poem. He never dreams. He speaks of himself in the third person. He has zero sense of humour and no idea of “telling a story”. If he’s intelligent it must be a highly narrow kind of intelligence
    Says in Starmer's biography his A level grades were 2 Bs and a C. Now admittedly that included Maths and a Science which are more difficult and overall still clearly above average but does suggest he is hardly brain of Britain either.

    Intelligence wise as PM he will probably be another John Major or Jim Callaghan with a bit more metropolitan flair but not a great cultural hinterland either
    You really are an educational elitist.

    Who cares if Mr Thickie Starmer is thicker than Mr Clever Sunak? Starmer has graduated from the school of hard knocks as a child of a tradesman.
    If you believe the last sentence I have a bridge to sell you. And it is Sir Thickie if you don't mind.

    He actually ended up graduating from the rather featherbedded St Edmund Hall Oxford via the perfectly respectable Leeds University. Essentially he is middle class by any measure, but the dinosaur class obsessed Labour Party want him to be seen as a working class lad. Laughable.
    Excuse me. The class obsessed poster outraged at Starmer's mediocre higher education performance was not a member of the Labour party but a former Conservative councillor from Epping Forest.
    Yes, but you've got to give him a bit of joy ffs!

    I don't wish to be cruel, but seeing HYUFD pass judgement on people's youth-time educational attainment as though that were the only indicator of intelligence, reminds me of a fat bloke in our pub who goes on about the England players not being fit enough.
    I am not running to be PM, nor is the fat bloke in the England team. That is the job they are highly paid for.

    I also never said Starmer was thick but he is clearly not going to be in the top rank of our PMs by intelligence. Intelligence isn't the be all and end all for PMs, judgement, empathy and competence matters too but it helps
    But you supported Boris Johnson, the most stupid PM in my vast political memory, had Liz Truss not come long to make him look moderately clever. And I know, he went to Oxford. What did he do at Oxford? Classics. Sounds rather clever doesn't it, and even if you don't want to imagine that he might have been accepted in the way described in Porterhouse Blue, it should be remembered that only a tiny percentage of A-level students, even in those days, studied Latin and Greek. It was, and still is, I believe, the easiest subject area to gain access to Oxbridge colleges other than Land Economy.
    It was Boris who beat Corbyn, Boris who got Brexit done and had Boris still been leader the Tories would not be heading for near annihilation but would be on 200 seats+ with Reform well under 10% still. We therefore would have a pro Ukraine leader of the right still, not a surging Farage and his Putin apologies. The markets would not have reacted so badly to Truss' budget either as there would have been no Truss budget and no PM Kwarteng.

    So no I make NO apologies for backing Boris with his Classics degree rather than Truss and Sunak's PPE degrees. Fat lot of good they did them!
    Any muppet could have beaten Corbyn at that point, and just to remind you, you voted Remain. Boris Johnson was a liar and a law breaker; a Trump-lite who has been a disaster for the Tories and the country. It would have been so much better for everyone if Stanley had worn a condom.
    No they couldn't, May failed to do so in 2017 and Hunt wouldn't have done either. Yes I voted Remain but I also respected the referendum result.

    On current trends all removing Boris has done is increased tenfold the chances of PM Farage within a decade instead
    God, you are so deluded. You said in a previous post that you are not applying to be PM. Let us just rejoice at that news.
    You will probably get PM Farage within a decade instead as I said and thoroughly deserve it!
    This country is never going to elect that fascist, racist and quite right so!
    In a world where Trump is heading back to the White House potentially and where Le Pen's party is heading for most seats in the legislative elections on Sunday I would not be sure of that at all.

    Farage is more charismatic than Starmer, if he takes over the rump Tories and the economy is poor under a Labour government he could become PM on just 30% of the vote with FPTP if Reform overtook Labour
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,346
    ...

    Nunu5 said:

    Omg this poll is in line with pp
    Lab: 38%
    Ref: 21%
    Con: 18%
    LD: 11%

    No idea if the Daily Express pollster is any good.

    But Baxtered it gives something like

    LABOUR 453
    LD 74
    CON 50
    REF 29 (!)
    GREEN 3
    SNP 18



    The Tories have voters everywhere. Reform have voters everywhere. Reform are relatively unpopular in Scotland (8%), London, and fairly unpopular in the leafy shires. All those places probably have more Tories living in them as a percentage of their voter tallies than Reform do. So where does the inefficiency of the Reform vote lie? Where are they stacking up all these voters in unwinnable seats to beat the Tories soundly but still lose so heavily on seat count? Yes the Tories have ground game and incumbency, but that would surely be accounted for in the topline figures? Surely the RefUK vote actually has the potential to be quite efficient?
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,289

    Flanner said:

    Travelled from Totnes to London Paddington this morning - and in nearly three hours of train travel, never saw a single political poster.

    What election?

    Why would anyone expect to see political posters from a train anyway? The view from trains is almost entirely the back of houses, green and virtually uninhabited countryside - or HS2 construction works. Political posters go into front windows or onto stakes at front doors.

    My station's on a line from Paddington too.. And I've scarcely seen a political poster from that line in 25 years. But walk the ten minutes from the station to our house, and you'll be inundated with LD and Labour posters in what's been a safe Tory seat throughout every voter's lifetime..

    What makes this election different is the remarkable number of Labour posters (because boundary changes make a Labour win here dramatically less improbable than any other time this century) and the spectacular absence of Tory ones. Many of those Tory posters used to go into fields empty of any animals but cows - and the silent rebellion of Britain's tenant farmers against their Tory-voting landlords isn't a sign of apathy, but one more reason the Tories are about to be shellacked.
    When the Tories have even lost the cows' vote, they are well and truly, er, burgered.
    They have decided to vote for the udder party
    That could be a big moo-steak.
    Not sure what their beef is though to be honest
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    Leon said:

    Farooq said:

    Anybody who claims the a tide of political opinion in the medium or distant future going inevitably this way or that is talking out of their arse. There are no tides, there is no whig history or a bastard cousin thereof.

    Anybody who wishcasts their own views as inevitable under the flimsy disguise of regret is trying to demoralise political opponents into inaction or anticipatory obedience: fight back against that shit.

    Anybody who has to claim they are "extreme good at this" is trying to convince themselves as much as anyone else.

    On the day that my long held prediction that: Biden is senile, it’s going to get worse, ignoring it is stupid and will end in disaster - has come spectacularly true (despite much mockery on here throughout) - this comment doesn’t really have the impact you hope

    For some reason I am good at spotting random facts and quickly working out their inevitable consequences, meaning, end. I’m not sure why. I wonder if it’s because I’m good at plotting stories to tell my kids. That’s a form of extrapolation - the plot has to work

    I am absolutely shit at turning this gift of historical-political extrapolation into money, which is quite frustrating
    You do know that last night's debate, this forum, life in general is not just about you? Amazing though it may seem.

    You are reminding me a bit of MoonRabbit who got the election month right and all of us who are tempted to think that because we made one good call we are suddenly God’s Gift to Political Betting. I called a Labour landslide long ago. It means diddly squat. Other things I’ve predicted have been crap. As have yours, like your prediction that Liz Truss was the Messiah.

    Do please try and get over yourself.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,723

    ...

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Brexit Britain could benefit from a flight to safety from the political chaos engulfing the US and EU.

    This will compensate for all the dynamic wealthy patriots who'll be leaving for Dubai due to Labour wokeness and high taxes.
    Oh please don't tell me that you, as an accountant, agree with that twat who wrote in The Guardian that we should be pleased that wealthy people are leaving.

    To alter the quote from Blackadder, many Labour voters brains are so minute , that if a hungry cannibal cracked one of their heads open, there wouldn't be enough to cover a small water biscuit.
    Yes. On this we agree. Even by the standards of the Guardian, that was one of the stupidest articles I have ever read. “Hooray all the evil wealthy tax payers are leaving. The fact they are leaving and not willing to pay massive taxes PROVES they are evil so we should be glad they’re going”

    Where do you even begin with an argument that dumb?
    Don't get sick. Don't get old. As a certain Welsh Windbag said.

    But that was said of the Tories. Labour's Britain is going to be a hell-hole of diminishing services if that "Eat the Rich!" mentality is as popular amongst the new intake as seems likely.
    My worry is not that they’re all secret or even open Marxists. They’re not clever enough for that

    And that is my worry. That they are dumb as rocks. All of them. At least you knew Blair was clever and perceptive and Brown had a massive if weird brain

    These guys? Sometimes I wonder about starmer. I mean he must be bright because he made it to DPP. I wish he’d evidence it a little more. Yet he doesn’t have a favourite novel or poem. He never dreams. He speaks of himself in the third person. He has zero sense of humour and no idea of “telling a story”. If he’s intelligent it must be a highly narrow kind of intelligence
    Says in Starmer's biography his A level grades were 2 Bs and a C. Now admittedly that included Maths and a Science which are more difficult and overall still clearly above average but does suggest he is hardly brain of Britain either.

    Intelligence wise as PM he will probably be another John Major or Jim Callaghan with a bit more metropolitan flair but not a great cultural hinterland either
    You really are an educational elitist.

    Who cares if Mr Thickie Starmer is thicker than Mr Clever Sunak? Starmer has graduated from the school of hard knocks as a child of a tradesman.
    If you believe the last sentence I have a bridge to sell you. And it is Sir Thickie if you don't mind.

    He actually ended up graduating from the rather featherbedded St Edmund Hall Oxford via the perfectly respectable Leeds University. Essentially he is middle class by any measure, but the dinosaur class obsessed Labour Party want him to be seen as a working class lad. Laughable.
    Excuse me. The class obsessed poster outraged at Starmer's mediocre higher education performance was not a member of the Labour party but a former Conservative councillor from Epping Forest.
    Yes, but you've got to give him a bit of joy ffs!

    I don't wish to be cruel, but seeing HYUFD pass judgement on people's youth-time educational attainment as though that were the only indicator of intelligence, reminds me of a fat bloke in our pub who goes on about the England players not being fit enough.
    I wish I'd known you could read Law after doing Science A levels.
    Whatever else you read at Uni, you chose....wisely.
    Back in the day I knew of a real w***** who read politics at Cardiff. What f****' use was politics?

    Wastrel degrees like Sociology, Politics, Philosophy and Classics all need to be banned by the new Conservative Government next Friday as irrelevant to modern living.

    I wish I could have read something practically useful like Media Studies. Back in my day many non-Law and non-Stem degrees were academic nonsense!
    Presumably you are including PPE and Greats at Oxford in your anathema?
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,963
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    ...

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Brexit Britain could benefit from a flight to safety from the political chaos engulfing the US and EU.

    This will compensate for all the dynamic wealthy patriots who'll be leaving for Dubai due to Labour wokeness and high taxes.
    Oh please don't tell me that you, as an accountant, agree with that twat who wrote in The Guardian that we should be pleased that wealthy people are leaving.

    To alter the quote from Blackadder, many Labour voters brains are so minute , that if a hungry cannibal cracked one of their heads open, there wouldn't be enough to cover a small water biscuit.
    Yes. On this we agree. Even by the standards of the Guardian, that was one of the stupidest articles I have ever read. “Hooray all the evil wealthy tax payers are leaving. The fact they are leaving and not willing to pay massive taxes PROVES they are evil so we should be glad they’re going”

    Where do you even begin with an argument that dumb?
    Don't get sick. Don't get old. As a certain Welsh Windbag said.

    But that was said of the Tories. Labour's Britain is going to be a hell-hole of diminishing services if that "Eat the Rich!" mentality is as popular amongst the new intake as seems likely.
    My worry is not that they’re all secret or even open Marxists. They’re not clever enough for that

    And that is my worry. That they are dumb as rocks. All of them. At least you knew Blair was clever and perceptive and Brown had a massive if weird brain

    These guys? Sometimes I wonder about starmer. I mean he must be bright because he made it to DPP. I wish he’d evidence it a little more. Yet he doesn’t have a favourite novel or poem. He never dreams. He speaks of himself in the third person. He has zero sense of humour and no idea of “telling a story”. If he’s intelligent it must be a highly narrow kind of intelligence
    Says in Starmer's biography his A level grades were 2 Bs and a C. Now admittedly that included Maths and a Science which are more difficult and overall still clearly above average but does suggest he is hardly brain of Britain either.

    Intelligence wise as PM he will probably be another John Major or Jim Callaghan with a bit more metropolitan flair but not a great cultural hinterland either
    You really are an educational elitist.

    Who cares if Mr Thickie Starmer is thicker than Mr Clever Sunak? Starmer has graduated from the school of hard knocks as a child of a tradesman.
    If you believe the last sentence I have a bridge to sell you. And it is Sir Thickie if you don't mind.

    He actually ended up graduating from the rather featherbedded St Edmund Hall Oxford via the perfectly respectable Leeds University. Essentially he is middle class by any measure, but the dinosaur class obsessed Labour Party want him to be seen as a working class lad. Laughable.
    Excuse me. The class obsessed poster outraged at Starmer's mediocre higher education performance was not a member of the Labour party but a former Conservative councillor from Epping Forest.
    Yes, but you've got to give him a bit of joy ffs!

    I don't wish to be cruel, but seeing HYUFD pass judgement on people's youth-time educational attainment as though that were the only indicator of intelligence, reminds me of a fat bloke in our pub who goes on about the England players not being fit enough.
    I am not running to be PM, nor is the fat bloke in the England team. That is the job they are highly paid for.

    I also never said Starmer was thick but he is clearly not going to be in the top rank of our PMs by intelligence. Intelligence isn't the be all and end all for PMs, judgement, empathy and competence matters too but it helps
    But you supported Boris Johnson, the most stupid PM in my vast political memory, had Liz Truss not come long to make him look moderately clever. And I know, he went to Oxford. What did he do at Oxford? Classics. Sounds rather clever doesn't it, and even if you don't want to imagine that he might have been accepted in the way described in Porterhouse Blue, it should be remembered that only a tiny percentage of A-level students, even in those days, studied Latin and Greek. It was, and still is, I believe, the easiest subject area to gain access to Oxbridge colleges other than Land Economy.
    It was Boris who beat Corbyn, Boris who got Brexit done and had Boris still been leader the Tories would not be heading for near annihilation but would be on 200 seats+ with Reform well under 10% still. We therefore would have a pro Ukraine leader of the right still, not a surging Farage and his Putin apologies. The markets would not have reacted so badly to Truss' budget either as there would have been no Truss budget and no PM Kwarteng.

    So no I make NO apologies for backing Boris with his Classics degree rather than Truss and Sunak's PPE degrees. Fat lot of good they did them!
    Any muppet could have beaten Corbyn at that point, and just to remind you, you voted Remain. Boris Johnson was a liar and a law breaker; a Trump-lite who has been a disaster for the Tories and the country. It would have been so much better for everyone if Stanley had worn a condom.
    No they couldn't, May failed to do so in 2017 and Hunt wouldn't have done either. Yes I voted Remain but I also respected the referendum result.

    On current trends all removing Boris has done is increased tenfold the chances of PM Farage within a decade instead
    God, you are so deluded. You said in a previous post that you are not applying to be PM. Let us just rejoice at that news.
    You will probably get PM Farage within a decade instead as I said and thoroughly deserve it!
    This country is never going to elect that fascist, racist and quite right so!
    In a world where Trump is heading back to the White House potentially and where Le Pen's party is heading for most seats in the legislative elections on Sunday I would not be sure of that at all.

    Farage is more charismatic than Starmer, if he takes over the rump Tories and the economy is poor under a Labour government he could become PM on just 30% of the vote if Reform overtook Labour
    If Farage took over the Tories I'd expect Labour to top 50% in the following election, not let Farage win on 30% (not that he'd get it).

    Farage is more vile and hated and Putinist than even Jeremy Corbyn and he will never win an election.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,346
    GIN1138 said:

    This time next week SKS will be in Downing St. appointing his cabinet and the Con blood-letting with have begun!

    Will there be any blood left to let?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,486
    Political betting swinging votes in Bolton West.

    "On Wednesday Green was mainly canvassing previous Conservative and swing voters in Blackrod, a small commuter town with sweeping countryside views. Most of those who answered the door stated that they were undecided or would not be voting at all.
    “You haven’t got mine,” replied painter and decorator James Mullen, 73, when Green asked if he could count on his vote. “It’s all this betting.”

    He recounted in disgust the scandal that has hit the Conservatives over the past fortnight, in which 12 individuals — including Tory candidates, party officials and police officers — have been placed under investigation over bets they placed on an early election date. "

    https://www.ft.com/content/80650fc4-5d36-4ee0-ad94-53731616f96d
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,289
    HYUFD said:

    boulay said:



    Someone was writing about the scenario where if the LD’s were close to the Tories in seats and then a few Lab MPs defected so the LD’s had more seats that the Tories and so became the Official Opposition. Has this ever happened before, as in the opposition changing control outside of an election? Sorry if I missed it being mentioned before.

    In that scenario the Tories would merge with Reform within a year unless we got PR
    I imagine that is your hope. You will be with a group of intellectual equals I guess.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Reform has had something of a rebounce in today's polling, +2 with Deltapoll, +3 with WeThink and over 20 with Whitestone Insight, Tories desperately clinging on to 20. Scottish and Welsh polling makes a Scot/Wales wipeout possible for the Tories but I fancy they'll hold on in Berwickshire at least.
    Survations MRP update is due at some point, they said hopefully today but no update since
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,346

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    ...

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Brexit Britain could benefit from a flight to safety from the political chaos engulfing the US and EU.

    This will compensate for all the dynamic wealthy patriots who'll be leaving for Dubai due to Labour wokeness and high taxes.
    Oh please don't tell me that you, as an accountant, agree with that twat who wrote in The Guardian that we should be pleased that wealthy people are leaving.

    To alter the quote from Blackadder, many Labour voters brains are so minute , that if a hungry cannibal cracked one of their heads open, there wouldn't be enough to cover a small water biscuit.
    Yes. On this we agree. Even by the standards of the Guardian, that was one of the stupidest articles I have ever read. “Hooray all the evil wealthy tax payers are leaving. The fact they are leaving and not willing to pay massive taxes PROVES they are evil so we should be glad they’re going”

    Where do you even begin with an argument that dumb?
    Don't get sick. Don't get old. As a certain Welsh Windbag said.

    But that was said of the Tories. Labour's Britain is going to be a hell-hole of diminishing services if that "Eat the Rich!" mentality is as popular amongst the new intake as seems likely.
    My worry is not that they’re all secret or even open Marxists. They’re not clever enough for that

    And that is my worry. That they are dumb as rocks. All of them. At least you knew Blair was clever and perceptive and Brown had a massive if weird brain

    These guys? Sometimes I wonder about starmer. I mean he must be bright because he made it to DPP. I wish he’d evidence it a little more. Yet he doesn’t have a favourite novel or poem. He never dreams. He speaks of himself in the third person. He has zero sense of humour and no idea of “telling a story”. If he’s intelligent it must be a highly narrow kind of intelligence
    Says in Starmer's biography his A level grades were 2 Bs and a C. Now admittedly that included Maths and a Science which are more difficult and overall still clearly above average but does suggest he is hardly brain of Britain either.

    Intelligence wise as PM he will probably be another John Major or Jim Callaghan with a bit more metropolitan flair but not a great cultural hinterland either
    You really are an educational elitist.

    Who cares if Mr Thickie Starmer is thicker than Mr Clever Sunak? Starmer has graduated from the school of hard knocks as a child of a tradesman.
    If you believe the last sentence I have a bridge to sell you. And it is Sir Thickie if you don't mind.

    He actually ended up graduating from the rather featherbedded St Edmund Hall Oxford via the perfectly respectable Leeds University. Essentially he is middle class by any measure, but the dinosaur class obsessed Labour Party want him to be seen as a working class lad. Laughable.
    Excuse me. The class obsessed poster outraged at Starmer's mediocre higher education performance was not a member of the Labour party but a former Conservative councillor from Epping Forest.
    Yes, but you've got to give him a bit of joy ffs!

    I don't wish to be cruel, but seeing HYUFD pass judgement on people's youth-time educational attainment as though that were the only indicator of intelligence, reminds me of a fat bloke in our pub who goes on about the England players not being fit enough.
    I am not running to be PM, nor is the fat bloke in the England team. That is the job they are highly paid for.

    I also never said Starmer was thick but he is clearly not going to be in the top rank of our PMs by intelligence. Intelligence isn't the be all and end all for PMs, judgement, empathy and competence matters too but it helps
    But you supported Boris Johnson, the most stupid PM in my vast political memory, had Liz Truss not come long to make him look moderately clever. And I know, he went to Oxford. What did he do at Oxford? Classics. Sounds rather clever doesn't it, and even if you don't want to imagine that he might have been accepted in the way described in Porterhouse Blue, it should be remembered that only a tiny percentage of A-level students, even in those days, studied Latin and Greek. It was, and still is, I believe, the easiest subject area to gain access to Oxbridge colleges other than Land Economy.
    It was Boris who beat Corbyn, Boris who got Brexit done and had Boris still been leader the Tories would not be heading for near annihilation but would be on 200 seats+ with Reform well under 10% still. We therefore would have a pro Ukraine leader of the right still, not a surging Farage and his Putin apologies. The markets would not have reacted so badly to Truss' budget either as there would have been no Truss budget and no PM Kwarteng.

    So no I make NO apologies for backing Boris with his Classics degree rather than Truss and Sunak's PPE degrees. Fat lot of good they did them!
    Any muppet could have beaten Corbyn at that point, and just to remind you, you voted Remain. Boris Johnson was a liar and a law breaker; a Trump-lite who has been a disaster for the Tories and the country. It would have been so much better for everyone if Stanley had worn a condom.
    No they couldn't, May failed to do so in 2017 and Hunt wouldn't have done either. Yes I voted Remain but I also respected the referendum result.

    On current trends all removing Boris has done is increased tenfold the chances of PM Farage within a decade instead
    God, you are so deluded. You said in a previous post that you are not applying to be PM. Let us just rejoice at that news.
    You will probably get PM Farage within a decade instead as I said and thoroughly deserve it!
    This country is never going to elect that fascist, racist and quite right so!
    In a world where Trump is heading back to the White House potentially and where Le Pen's party is heading for most seats in the legislative elections on Sunday I would not be sure of that at all.

    Farage is more charismatic than Starmer, if he takes over the rump Tories and the economy is poor under a Labour government he could become PM on just 30% of the vote if Reform overtook Labour
    If Farage took over the Tories I'd expect Labour to top 50% in the following election, not let Farage win on 30% (not that he'd get it).

    Farage is more vile and hated and Putinist than even Jeremy Corbyn and he will never win an election.
    Can you present their comparative favourability ratings here, becuase I am not sure that Farage is hated more than Corbyn. I am open to info.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,723

    HYUFD said:

    ...

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Brexit Britain could benefit from a flight to safety from the political chaos engulfing the US and EU.

    This will compensate for all the dynamic wealthy patriots who'll be leaving for Dubai due to Labour wokeness and high taxes.
    Oh please don't tell me that you, as an accountant, agree with that twat who wrote in The Guardian that we should be pleased that wealthy people are leaving.

    To alter the quote from Blackadder, many Labour voters brains are so minute , that if a hungry cannibal cracked one of their heads open, there wouldn't be enough to cover a small water biscuit.
    Yes. On this we agree. Even by the standards of the Guardian, that was one of the stupidest articles I have ever read. “Hooray all the evil wealthy tax payers are leaving. The fact they are leaving and not willing to pay massive taxes PROVES they are evil so we should be glad they’re going”

    Where do you even begin with an argument that dumb?
    Don't get sick. Don't get old. As a certain Welsh Windbag said.

    But that was said of the Tories. Labour's Britain is going to be a hell-hole of diminishing services if that "Eat the Rich!" mentality is as popular amongst the new intake as seems likely.
    My worry is not that they’re all secret or even open Marxists. They’re not clever enough for that

    And that is my worry. That they are dumb as rocks. All of them. At least you knew Blair was clever and perceptive and Brown had a massive if weird brain

    These guys? Sometimes I wonder about starmer. I mean he must be bright because he made it to DPP. I wish he’d evidence it a little more. Yet he doesn’t have a favourite novel or poem. He never dreams. He speaks of himself in the third person. He has zero sense of humour and no idea of “telling a story”. If he’s intelligent it must be a highly narrow kind of intelligence
    Says in Starmer's biography his A level grades were 2 Bs and a C. Now admittedly that included Maths and a Science which are more difficult and overall still clearly above average but does suggest he is hardly brain of Britain either.

    Intelligence wise as PM he will probably be another John Major or Jim Callaghan with a bit more metropolitan flair but not a great cultural hinterland either
    You really are an educational elitist.

    Who cares if Mr Thickie Starmer is thicker than Mr Clever Sunak? Starmer has graduated from the school of hard knocks as a child of a tradesman.
    If you believe the last sentence I have a bridge to sell you. And it is Sir Thickie if you don't mind.

    He actually ended up graduating from the rather featherbedded St Edmund Hall Oxford via the perfectly respectable Leeds University. Essentially he is middle class by any measure, but the dinosaur class obsessed Labour Party want him to be seen as a working class lad. Laughable.
    Excuse me. The class obsessed poster outraged at Starmer's mediocre higher education performance was not a member of the Labour party but a former Conservative councillor from Epping Forest.
    Yes, but you've got to give him a bit of joy ffs!

    I don't wish to be cruel, but seeing HYUFD pass judgement on people's youth-time educational attainment as though that were the only indicator of intelligence, reminds me of a fat bloke in our pub who goes on about the England players not being fit enough.
    I am not running to be PM, nor is the fat bloke in the England team. That is the job they are highly paid for.

    I also never said Starmer was thick but he is clearly not going to be in the top rank of our PMs by intelligence. Intelligence isn't the be all and end all for PMs, judgement, empathy and competence matters too but it helps
    But you supported Boris Johnson, the most stupid PM in my vast political memory, had Liz Truss not come long to make him look moderately clever. And I know, he went to Oxford. What did he do at Oxford? Classics. Sounds rather clever doesn't it, and even if you don't want to imagine that he might have been accepted in the way described in Porterhouse Blue, it should be remembered that only a tiny percentage of A-level students, even in those days, studied Latin and Greek. It was, and still is, I believe, the easiest subject area to gain access to Oxbridge colleges other than Land Economy.
    I thought Land Economy was quite difficult?

    You had to be a world class rower or the heir to a massive estate.
    Well indeed, that massive intellect Gavin Hastings was an alumni of Cambridge with an MA(Cantab) (That is a BA anywhere else) in Land Economy.
    AlumnUS, AlumnUS, even at Fenland ...
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,039
    IanB2 said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    ...

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Brexit Britain could benefit from a flight to safety from the political chaos engulfing the US and EU.

    This will compensate for all the dynamic wealthy patriots who'll be leaving for Dubai due to Labour wokeness and high taxes.
    Oh please don't tell me that you, as an accountant, agree with that twat who wrote in The Guardian that we should be pleased that wealthy people are leaving.

    To alter the quote from Blackadder, many Labour voters brains are so minute , that if a hungry cannibal cracked one of their heads open, there wouldn't be enough to cover a small water biscuit.
    Yes. On this we agree. Even by the standards of the Guardian, that was one of the stupidest articles I have ever read. “Hooray all the evil wealthy tax payers are leaving. The fact they are leaving and not willing to pay massive taxes PROVES they are evil so we should be glad they’re going”

    Where do you even begin with an argument that dumb?
    Don't get sick. Don't get old. As a certain Welsh Windbag said.

    But that was said of the Tories. Labour's Britain is going to be a hell-hole of diminishing services if that "Eat the Rich!" mentality is as popular amongst the new intake as seems likely.
    My worry is not that they’re all secret or even open Marxists. They’re not clever enough for that

    And that is my worry. That they are dumb as rocks. All of them. At least you knew Blair was clever and perceptive and Brown had a massive if weird brain

    These guys? Sometimes I wonder about starmer. I mean he must be bright because he made it to DPP. I wish he’d evidence it a little more. Yet he doesn’t have a favourite novel or poem. He never dreams. He speaks of himself in the third person. He has zero sense of humour and no idea of “telling a story”. If he’s intelligent it must be a highly narrow kind of intelligence
    Says in Starmer's biography his A level grades were 2 Bs and a C. Now admittedly that included Maths and a Science which are more difficult and overall still clearly above average but does suggest he is hardly brain of Britain either.

    Intelligence wise as PM he will probably be another John Major or Jim Callaghan with a bit more metropolitan flair but not a great cultural hinterland either
    You really are an educational elitist.

    Who cares if Mr Thickie Starmer is thicker than Mr Clever Sunak? Starmer has graduated from the school of hard knocks as a child of a tradesman.
    If you believe the last sentence I have a bridge to sell you. And it is Sir Thickie if you don't mind.

    He actually ended up graduating from the rather featherbedded St Edmund Hall Oxford via the perfectly respectable Leeds University. Essentially he is middle class by any measure, but the dinosaur class obsessed Labour Party want him to be seen as a working class lad. Laughable.
    Excuse me. The class obsessed poster outraged at Starmer's mediocre higher education performance was not a member of the Labour party but a former Conservative councillor from Epping Forest.
    Yes, but you've got to give him a bit of joy ffs!

    I don't wish to be cruel, but seeing HYUFD pass judgement on people's youth-time educational attainment as though that were the only indicator of intelligence, reminds me of a fat bloke in our pub who goes on about the England players not being fit enough.
    I am not running to be PM, nor is the fat bloke in the England team. That is the job they are highly paid for.

    I also never said Starmer was thick but he is clearly not going to be in the top rank of our PMs by intelligence. Intelligence isn't the be all and end all for PMs, judgement, empathy and competence matters too but it helps
    You define intelligence by A level results 35 years ago? Even worse than IQ testing.
    Very true. Look at our Leon; he was thrown out of school for making stuff up, with just a swimming certificate by way of paper qualifications, and now he has an IQ of 6000.
    I went to a big standard comprehensive and became an alcoholic at the age of 17. Somehow I got an offer of two Es from UCL so I swanned in nonetheless. Once there I did zero work concentrating on drugs girls and parties and after that I became a heroin addict for another 15 years nearly dying many times. I’ve never done a proper day’s work in my life and here I am sitting in a sun drenched garden on the island of ushant drinking free muscadet where I am being PAID to have a lovely holiday on all the islands of Brittany because this is my second job - my first job which takes an hour a day earns me more than the prime minister thus giving me plenty of time to remember the 100 countries I’ve visited and the approximately 300 young women I have fucked and the tax bill I got one year for £300,000

    Imagine what I could have done if I’d worked hard like you
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,484
    HYUFD said:

    Clyburn tells Biden to 'stay the course'.

    FFS.

    Trump wins the election this weekend it seems.

    If he can keep out of jail next month
    FFS jail him.

    Let's have two new options.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,486
    HYUFD said:

    https://x.com/politlcsuk/status/1806721294743785513

    @PolitlcsUK
    🚨 NEW: Reform UK is now three points ahead of the Tories in the latest poll

    Labour: 38% (-1)
    Reform UK: 21% (+1)
    Conservatives: 18% (-1)
    Lib Dems: 11% (-1)
    Greens: 7% (+1)
    SNP: 2% (-1)
    Other: 3% (+2)

    Via @WStoneInsight, on 26-27 June
    2,012 adults
    Changes w/ 19-20 June

    An Express poll though Labour also now doing worse than Corbyn 2017 with them too on voteshare so not a huge triumph for Starmer either.

    Interesting how the two best opinion polls for RefUK are ones published by Daily Express and Matt Goodwin.
  • Travelled from Totnes to London Paddington this morning - and in nearly three hours of train travel, never saw a single political poster.

    What election?

    The south west really do seem to have lost interest
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 5,877
    X
    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    Farooq said:

    Anybody who claims the a tide of political opinion in the medium or distant future going inevitably this way or that is talking out of their arse. There are no tides, there is no whig history or a bastard cousin thereof.

    Anybody who wishcasts their own views as inevitable under the flimsy disguise of regret is trying to demoralise political opponents into inaction or anticipatory obedience: fight back against that shit.

    Anybody who has to claim they are "extreme good at this" is trying to convince themselves as much as anyone else.

    On the day that my long held prediction that: Biden is senile, it’s going to get worse, ignoring it is stupid and will end in disaster - has come spectacularly true (despite much mockery on here throughout) - this comment doesn’t really have the impact you hope

    For some reason I am good at spotting random facts and quickly working out their inevitable consequences, meaning, end. I’m not sure why. I wonder if it’s because I’m good at plotting stories to tell my kids. That’s a form of extrapolation - the plot has to work

    I am absolutely shit at turning this gift of historical-political extrapolation into money, which is quite frustrating
    You do know that last night's debate, this forum, life in general is not just about you? Amazing though it may seem.

    You are reminding me a bit of MoonRabbit who got the election month right and all of us who are tempted to think that because we made one good call we are suddenly God’s Gift to Political Betting. I called a Labour landslide long ago. It means diddly squat. Other things I’ve predicted have been crap. As have yours, like your prediction that Liz Truss was the Messiah.

    Do please try and get over yourself.
    Do please try to remember your own advice when you're matronising the site
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,494

    HYUFD said:

    Clyburn tells Biden to 'stay the course'.

    FFS.

    Trump wins the election this weekend it seems.

    If he can keep out of jail next month
    FFS jail him.

    Let's have two new options.
    Even if he's given a custodial sentence then he's still not going to prison immediately as he'll be appealing.
  • MJWMJW Posts: 1,728
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Predicted, but still a disaster.
    SC overturns Chevron.

    https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/23pdf/22-451_7m58.pdf

    Possibly the worst decision this court has made, and heaven knows it's been a utter shitshow since Trump's appointments.
    It's an enormous power grab by the Court at the expense of Congress, and demonstrates a contempt for the stare decisis doctrine that is deeper than the Dodds decision.

    Kagan's dissent is well argued, and appropriately scathing. She made a point of reading it from the bench.
    Does feel like the US is heading for an omnidirectional crisis where things just start breaking down because the institutions that knitted society together have become illegitimate or discredited. Which is very bad for the rest of us given how much America underpins the West's prosperity and security.
This discussion has been closed.