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Northern Ireland [Westminster] Constituencies : Part Two (Key Seats) – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,622
edited July 2024 in General
imageNorthern Ireland [Westminster] Constituencies : Part Two (Key Seats) – politicalbetting.com

I hope you all enjoyed Part One. Within this Article, we will analyse and predict which candidate and which party can become victorious in the upcoming Westminster General Election.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,954
    Fermanagh and South Tyrone must be the most invariant marginal in the whole of the UK.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,776
    FPT:
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Pro_Rate....live it was far worse than the highlights. It wasn't a person gets one answer a bit mixed up.

    I agree. If the clips packages are making it look "not too bad" for Biden, they are being very, very generous. It was painful to watch last night.

    If the Democrats don't get Biden to step aside and maximize any positive publicity they can extract from an Open Convention, the world will be in a very bad place next year.
  • MisterBedfordshireMisterBedfordshire Posts: 2,252
    FPT.
    Scott_xP said:

    RefUK have managed to elongate the 'racist campaigner' story for another cycle by claiming he is 'just' an actor

    With the turn it has taken, seemingly an actor speaking "in character" they will be milking it until next Thursday.

    Even if the guy is a genuine volunteer, doing a sting when the guy you sting is card carrying equity member, using the "in character" voice he advertises on his website as an Alf Garnetesque "Rough Voice", (as opposed to his rather more well spoken normal voice), is a backfiring fail of monumental proportions.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,234
    I am glad the pubs are closing if this is the sort of talk that goes on in them.

    A Reform UK volunteer who was filmed by Channel 4 News calling Rishi Sunak a “f------ p---” has apologised, saying he was “goaded on”.

    Andrew Parker said he made the comments, recorded by undercover reporters, “in the heat of the moment”.

    Mr Parker also confirmed claims that he was a part-time actor but said he got involved with Reform UK after contacting the party himself and volunteering to do leafleting because he believes in its message.

    He said he had not told the party that he was an actor.

    Mr Parker said: “Of course I regret what I said. Christ, I’m not a racist. I’ve had Muslim girlfriends. It was typical chaps-down-the-pub talk.”

    Asked whether he would like to apologise, he said: “Of course I’m sorry. They were off-the-cuff things that everyone says.”

    He said he had “a lot of Pakistani friends” and “Muslim friends”, and that he was “sick to death” of being asked about the footage

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/28/reform-investigate-claim-racist-activist-actor-channel-four/

    Asking the PB massive, am I racist because I've never had a Muslim girlfriend?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    mwadams said:

    FPT:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Pro_Rate....live it was far worse than the highlights. It wasn't a person gets one answer a bit mixed up.

    I agree. If the clips packages are making it look "not too bad" for Biden, they are being very, very generous. It was painful to watch last night.

    If the Democrats don't get Biden to step aside and maximize any positive publicity they can extract from an Open Convention, the world will be in a very bad place next year.
    There's a risk that an open convention would turn into a repeat of 1968.
  • UnpopularUnpopular Posts: 917
    Pulpstar said:

    Fermanagh and South Tyrone must be the most invariant marginal in the whole of the UK.

    As the deluge of the debate subsides, and the ramblings fall short, we see the dreary steeples of Fermanagh and Tyrone emerging once again.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,234
    Thoughts and prayers for my colleagues at HSBC, Barclays, Nationwide, and Virgin Money.

    On what is payday for most Brits.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c3g03ejjl1yo
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,234
    Farooq said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I am glad the pubs are closing if this is the sort of talk that goes on in them.

    A Reform UK volunteer who was filmed by Channel 4 News calling Rishi Sunak a “f------ p---” has apologised, saying he was “goaded on”.

    Andrew Parker said he made the comments, recorded by undercover reporters, “in the heat of the moment”.

    Mr Parker also confirmed claims that he was a part-time actor but said he got involved with Reform UK after contacting the party himself and volunteering to do leafleting because he believes in its message.

    He said he had not told the party that he was an actor.

    Mr Parker said: “Of course I regret what I said. Christ, I’m not a racist. I’ve had Muslim girlfriends. It was typical chaps-down-the-pub talk.”

    Asked whether he would like to apologise, he said: “Of course I’m sorry. They were off-the-cuff things that everyone says.”

    He said he had “a lot of Pakistani friends” and “Muslim friends”, and that he was “sick to death” of being asked about the footage

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/28/reform-investigate-claim-racist-activist-actor-channel-four/

    Asking the PB massive, am I racist because I've never had a Muslim girlfriend?

    Have you had a Muslim boyfriend? If so, you're in the clear and you can apply for an official Farooq-brand certificate* of non-racism.

    *only available on white paper
    Never had a Muslim boyfriend either.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,954
    edited June 2024
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I am glad the pubs are closing if this is the sort of talk that goes on in them.

    A Reform UK volunteer who was filmed by Channel 4 News calling Rishi Sunak a “f------ p---” has apologised, saying he was “goaded on”.

    Andrew Parker said he made the comments, recorded by undercover reporters, “in the heat of the moment”.

    Mr Parker also confirmed claims that he was a part-time actor but said he got involved with Reform UK after contacting the party himself and volunteering to do leafleting because he believes in its message.

    He said he had not told the party that he was an actor.

    Mr Parker said: “Of course I regret what I said. Christ, I’m not a racist. I’ve had Muslim girlfriends. It was typical chaps-down-the-pub talk.”

    Asked whether he would like to apologise, he said: “Of course I’m sorry. They were off-the-cuff things that everyone says.”

    He said he had “a lot of Pakistani friends” and “Muslim friends”, and that he was “sick to death” of being asked about the footage

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/28/reform-investigate-claim-racist-activist-actor-channel-four/

    Asking the PB massive, am I racist because I've never had a Muslim girlfriend?

    The open question is was he acting, or were those his views. He's only got a week to wait if he was actually acting and then comes out with gushing interviews about how "I set Reform up, it was a service to the nation". He would likely get a lot of work off the back of that from people who hate Farage.
    There's no way on God's green earth he'll admit he was acting prior to the big bong at 10 PM next Thursday.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,234
    Pulpstar said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I am glad the pubs are closing if this is the sort of talk that goes on in them.

    A Reform UK volunteer who was filmed by Channel 4 News calling Rishi Sunak a “f------ p---” has apologised, saying he was “goaded on”.

    Andrew Parker said he made the comments, recorded by undercover reporters, “in the heat of the moment”.

    Mr Parker also confirmed claims that he was a part-time actor but said he got involved with Reform UK after contacting the party himself and volunteering to do leafleting because he believes in its message.

    He said he had not told the party that he was an actor.

    Mr Parker said: “Of course I regret what I said. Christ, I’m not a racist. I’ve had Muslim girlfriends. It was typical chaps-down-the-pub talk.”

    Asked whether he would like to apologise, he said: “Of course I’m sorry. They were off-the-cuff things that everyone says.”

    He said he had “a lot of Pakistani friends” and “Muslim friends”, and that he was “sick to death” of being asked about the footage

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/28/reform-investigate-claim-racist-activist-actor-channel-four/

    Asking the PB massive, am I racist because I've never had a Muslim girlfriend?

    The open question is was he acting, or were those his views. He's only got a week to wait if he was actually acting and then comes out with gushing interviews about how "I set reform up, it was a service to the nation". He would likely get a lot of work off the back of that from people who hate Farage.
    There's no way on God's green earth he'll admit he was acting prior to the big bong at 10 PM next Thursday.
    So apparently there's source material showing him campaigning for UKIP/Farage as far back as 2014, that's a decade as a sleeper agent.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 36,848
    Only just noticed that in 2019 the Brexit Party got 5.4% in Wales compared to 2.0% in England. Makes one wonder whether RefUK might get a higher share in Wales than England this time around.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 64,005
    The Dems are gonna do it aren’t they? They’re gonna slowly convince themselves Joe is basically ok and last night was a one-off
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,466
    williamglenn said:

    mwadams said:

    FPT:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Pro_Rate....live it was far worse than the highlights. It wasn't a person gets one answer a bit mixed up.

    I agree. If the clips packages are making it look "not too bad" for Biden, they are being very, very generous. It was painful to watch last night.

    If the Democrats don't get Biden to step aside and maximize any positive publicity they can extract from an Open Convention, the world will be in a very bad place next year.
    There's a risk that an open convention would turn into a repeat of 1968.
    Thank you Lord Astor.

    I can't work out how you can make the extrapolation that an open convention will turn into the chaos of 1968.

    Although as a Trump fanboi you would say that wouldn't you? Bring on an open convention.
  • MisterBedfordshireMisterBedfordshire Posts: 2,252
    edited June 2024
    Pulpstar said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I am glad the pubs are closing if this is the sort of talk that goes on in them.

    A Reform UK volunteer who was filmed by Channel 4 News calling Rishi Sunak a “f------ p---” has apologised, saying he was “goaded on”.

    Andrew Parker said he made the comments, recorded by undercover reporters, “in the heat of the moment”.

    Mr Parker also confirmed claims that he was a part-time actor but said he got involved with Reform UK after contacting the party himself and volunteering to do leafleting because he believes in its message.

    He said he had not told the party that he was an actor.

    Mr Parker said: “Of course I regret what I said. Christ, I’m not a racist. I’ve had Muslim girlfriends. It was typical chaps-down-the-pub talk.”

    Asked whether he would like to apologise, he said: “Of course I’m sorry. They were off-the-cuff things that everyone says.”

    He said he had “a lot of Pakistani friends” and “Muslim friends”, and that he was “sick to death” of being asked about the footage

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/28/reform-investigate-claim-racist-activist-actor-channel-four/

    Asking the PB massive, am I racist because I've never had a Muslim girlfriend?

    The open question is was he acting, or were those his views. He's only got a week to wait if he was actually acting and then comes out with gushing interviews about how "I set Reform up, it was a service to the nation". He would likely get a lot of work off the back of that from people who hate Farage.
    There's no way on God's green earth he'll admit he was acting prior to the big bong at 10 PM next Thursday.
    I don't think it makes any difference. He will be treated as a setup. Even if the guy is a genuine volunteer, doing a sting when the guy you sting is card carrying equity member, using the "in character" voice he advertises on his website as an Alf Garnetesque "Rough Voice", (as opposed to his rather more well spoken normal voice), is a backfiring fail of monumental proportions.

    Arguing over it is as futile as arguing that insider betting on elections is ethical and pure because it is not actually illegal.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,344
    edited June 2024
    Betting Post:

    Check out the odds on Exmouth and Exeter East

    BF (exc) has it very close between three:

    2.06 Con
    2.1 LDem
    2.64 Lab
    6.4 Ref

    Meanwhile, the best prices with trad bookies are:

    15/8 Con
    13/8 LDem
    10 Lab
    10 Ref

    I know the area a bit and I'd say Ref will take a chunk off Con. I'd be tempted by 13/8 LDem (I have already backed them at 7s) but what about the 10s available for Lab to take the seat??

    @SouthamObserver @Quincel @MarqueeMark
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 15,608
    Thanks for the article. You're predicting 2-3 APNI MPs, which would be a significant (and welcome) breakthrough for the party.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,954
    edited June 2024
    Stocky said:

    Betting Post:

    Check out the odds on Exmouth and Exeter East

    BF (exc) has it very close between three:

    2.06 Con
    2.1 LDem
    2.64 Lab
    6.4 Ref

    Meanwhile, the best prices with trad bookies are:

    15/8 Con
    13/8 LDem
    10 Lab
    10 Ref

    I know the area a bit and I'd say Ref will take a chunk off Con. I'd be tempted by 13/8 LDem (I have already backed them at 7s) but what about the 10s available for Lab to take the seat??

    @SouthamObserver @Quincel @MarqueeMark

    Of you believe the models it's broadly speaking a Tory hold.

    Exmouth and Exeter East Con 15.8 8809
    Lib 0.7
    Con 5%
    Con 3.2%
    Con 8%
    Con 0.26%
    Con 2.05%
    Conservative 8.40%
    Reform 4.38
    CON 0.1

    I do however fwiw have a vision of the entire southwest, hopped up on cider heading out and voting Lib Dem en masse on the day with the amount of yellow diamonds down there.
  • MisterBedfordshireMisterBedfordshire Posts: 2,252
    edited June 2024
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I am glad the pubs are closing if this is the sort of talk that goes on in them.

    A Reform UK volunteer who was filmed by Channel 4 News calling Rishi Sunak a “f------ p---” has apologised, saying he was “goaded on”.

    Andrew Parker said he made the comments, recorded by undercover reporters, “in the heat of the moment”.

    Mr Parker also confirmed claims that he was a part-time actor but said he got involved with Reform UK after contacting the party himself and volunteering to do leafleting because he believes in its message.

    He said he had not told the party that he was an actor.

    Mr Parker said: “Of course I regret what I said. Christ, I’m not a racist. I’ve had Muslim girlfriends. It was typical chaps-down-the-pub talk.”

    Asked whether he would like to apologise, he said: “Of course I’m sorry. They were off-the-cuff things that everyone says.”

    He said he had “a lot of Pakistani friends” and “Muslim friends”, and that he was “sick to death” of being asked about the footage

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/28/reform-investigate-claim-racist-activist-actor-channel-four/

    Asking the PB massive, am I racist because I've never had a Muslim girlfriend?

    The open question is was he acting, or were those his views. He's only got a week to wait if he was actually acting and then comes out with gushing interviews about how "I set reform up, it was a service to the nation". He would likely get a lot of work off the back of that from people who hate Farage.
    There's no way on God's green earth he'll admit he was acting prior to the big bong at 10 PM next Thursday.
    So apparently there's source material showing him campaigning for UKIP/Farage as far back as 2014, that's a decade as a sleeper agent.
    If you are going to do a sting, best not to make the subject an apparent card carrying equity holder who specialises in Alf Garnetesque "rough voice" characters and campaigns in character.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,344
    Great header - I've had a nibble.

    Generally, I hate the trad bookies but I must admit Bet365 have been good sports on this constituency betting.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    Mexicanpete said:

    williamglenn said:

    mwadams said:

    FPT:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Pro_Rate....live it was far worse than the highlights. It wasn't a person gets one answer a bit mixed up.

    I agree. If the clips packages are making it look "not too bad" for Biden, they are being very, very generous. It was painful to watch last night.

    If the Democrats don't get Biden to step aside and maximize any positive publicity they can extract from an Open Convention, the world will be in a very bad place next year.
    There's a risk that an open convention would turn into a repeat of 1968.
    Thank you Lord Astor.

    I can't work out how you can make the extrapolation that an open convention will turn into the chaos of 1968.

    Although as a Trump fanboi you would say that wouldn't you? Bring on an open convention.
    It will be a nexus for anti-Israel protests.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,954
    MisterBedfordshire said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I am glad the pubs are closing if this is the sort of talk that goes on in them.

    A Reform UK volunteer who was filmed by Channel 4 News calling Rishi Sunak a “f------ p---” has apologised, saying he was “goaded on”.

    Andrew Parker said he made the comments, recorded by undercover reporters, “in the heat of the moment”.

    Mr Parker also confirmed claims that he was a part-time actor but said he got involved with Reform UK after contacting the party himself and volunteering to do leafleting because he believes in its message.

    He said he had not told the party that he was an actor.

    Mr Parker said: “Of course I regret what I said. Christ, I’m not a racist. I’ve had Muslim girlfriends. It was typical chaps-down-the-pub talk.”

    Asked whether he would like to apologise, he said: “Of course I’m sorry. They were off-the-cuff things that everyone says.”

    He said he had “a lot of Pakistani friends” and “Muslim friends”, and that he was “sick to death” of being asked about the footage

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/28/reform-investigate-claim-racist-activist-actor-channel-four/

    Asking the PB massive, am I racist because I've never had a Muslim girlfriend?

    The open question is was he acting, or were those his views. He's only got a week to wait if he was actually acting and then comes out with gushing interviews about how "I set reform up, it was a service to the nation". He would likely get a lot of work off the back of that from people who hate Farage.
    There's no way on God's green earth he'll admit he was acting prior to the big bong at 10 PM next Thursday.
    So apparently there's source material showing him campaigning for UKIP/Farage as far back as 2014, that's a decade as a sleeper agent.
    If you are going to do a sting, best not to make the subject an apparent card carrying equity holder who specialises in Alf Garnetesque "rough voice" characters and campaigns in character.
    Tbh his profession is a bit awkward for everyone.
  • MisterBedfordshireMisterBedfordshire Posts: 2,252
    Saw my first Tory posters today. Three of them. All on the railings of the town Conservative Club balcony.

    They also had a union flag which for some reason was flying at half mast.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 15,608
    MisterBedfordshire said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I am glad the pubs are closing if this is the sort of talk that goes on in them.

    A Reform UK volunteer who was filmed by Channel 4 News calling Rishi Sunak a “f------ p---” has apologised, saying he was “goaded on”.

    Andrew Parker said he made the comments, recorded by undercover reporters, “in the heat of the moment”.

    Mr Parker also confirmed claims that he was a part-time actor but said he got involved with Reform UK after contacting the party himself and volunteering to do leafleting because he believes in its message.

    He said he had not told the party that he was an actor.

    Mr Parker said: “Of course I regret what I said. Christ, I’m not a racist. I’ve had Muslim girlfriends. It was typical chaps-down-the-pub talk.”

    Asked whether he would like to apologise, he said: “Of course I’m sorry. They were off-the-cuff things that everyone says.”

    He said he had “a lot of Pakistani friends” and “Muslim friends”, and that he was “sick to death” of being asked about the footage

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/28/reform-investigate-claim-racist-activist-actor-channel-four/

    Asking the PB massive, am I racist because I've never had a Muslim girlfriend?

    The open question is was he acting, or were those his views. He's only got a week to wait if he was actually acting and then comes out with gushing interviews about how "I set reform up, it was a service to the nation". He would likely get a lot of work off the back of that from people who hate Farage.
    There's no way on God's green earth he'll admit he was acting prior to the big bong at 10 PM next Thursday.
    So apparently there's source material showing him campaigning for UKIP/Farage as far back as 2014, that's a decade as a sleeper agent.
    If you are going to do a sting, best not to make the subject an apparent card carrying equity holder who specialises in Alf Garnetesque "rough voice" characters and campaigns in character.
    The initial report had 3 different Reform UK campaigners saying problematic things. Why are we forgetting the other two?
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 15,121
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I am glad the pubs are closing if this is the sort of talk that goes on in them.

    A Reform UK volunteer who was filmed by Channel 4 News calling Rishi Sunak a “f------ p---” has apologised, saying he was “goaded on”.

    Andrew Parker said he made the comments, recorded by undercover reporters, “in the heat of the moment”.

    Mr Parker also confirmed claims that he was a part-time actor but said he got involved with Reform UK after contacting the party himself and volunteering to do leafleting because he believes in its message.

    He said he had not told the party that he was an actor.

    Mr Parker said: “Of course I regret what I said. Christ, I’m not a racist. I’ve had Muslim girlfriends. It was typical chaps-down-the-pub talk.”

    Asked whether he would like to apologise, he said: “Of course I’m sorry. They were off-the-cuff things that everyone says.”

    He said he had “a lot of Pakistani friends” and “Muslim friends”, and that he was “sick to death” of being asked about the footage

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/28/reform-investigate-claim-racist-activist-actor-channel-four/

    Asking the PB massive, am I racist because I've never had a Muslim girlfriend?

    Actually not everyone does.
  • maxhmaxh Posts: 1,700
    MisterBedfordshire said:

    Saw my first Tory posters today. Three of them. All on the railings of the town Conservative Club balcony.

    They also had a union flag which for some reason was flying at half mast.

    I can think of some reasons...
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 25,531
    I have been waiting for this, @TheGreenMachine , thank you. Will there be a Part 3?
  • maxhmaxh Posts: 1,700
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I am glad the pubs are closing if this is the sort of talk that goes on in them.

    A Reform UK volunteer who was filmed by Channel 4 News calling Rishi Sunak a “f------ p---” has apologised, saying he was “goaded on”.

    Andrew Parker said he made the comments, recorded by undercover reporters, “in the heat of the moment”.

    Mr Parker also confirmed claims that he was a part-time actor but said he got involved with Reform UK after contacting the party himself and volunteering to do leafleting because he believes in its message.

    He said he had not told the party that he was an actor.

    Mr Parker said: “Of course I regret what I said. Christ, I’m not a racist. I’ve had Muslim girlfriends. It was typical chaps-down-the-pub talk.”

    Asked whether he would like to apologise, he said: “Of course I’m sorry. They were off-the-cuff things that everyone says.”

    He said he had “a lot of Pakistani friends” and “Muslim friends”, and that he was “sick to death” of being asked about the footage

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/28/reform-investigate-claim-racist-activist-actor-channel-four/

    Asking the PB massive, am I racist because I've never had a Muslim girlfriend?

    Chaps-down-the-pub talk = locker room banter
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,497
    Another good NI article.

    Don't agree with all the predictions though, I think the UUP could win Fermanagh and S Tyrone this time with no Unionist rivals and given they were less than 50 votes behind SF last time.

    I think the Alliance will hold North Down. I also think the DUP will hold Lagan Valley where the combined Unionist vote was well over 50% on first preferences in the 2022 Stormont election
  • MisterBedfordshireMisterBedfordshire Posts: 2,252
    On topic. Thanks for the interesting article.

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,593
    Andy_JS said:

    Only just noticed that in 2019 the Brexit Party got 5.4% in Wales compared to 2.0% in England. Makes one wonder whether RefUK might get a higher share in Wales than England this time around.

    It’s because Wales has an older demographic
  • eekeek Posts: 30,881
    bondegezou said:

    MisterBedfordshire said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I am glad the pubs are closing if this is the sort of talk that goes on in them.

    A Reform UK volunteer who was filmed by Channel 4 News calling Rishi Sunak a “f------ p---” has apologised, saying he was “goaded on”.

    Andrew Parker said he made the comments, recorded by undercover reporters, “in the heat of the moment”.

    Mr Parker also confirmed claims that he was a part-time actor but said he got involved with Reform UK after contacting the party himself and volunteering to do leafleting because he believes in its message.

    He said he had not told the party that he was an actor.

    Mr Parker said: “Of course I regret what I said. Christ, I’m not a racist. I’ve had Muslim girlfriends. It was typical chaps-down-the-pub talk.”

    Asked whether he would like to apologise, he said: “Of course I’m sorry. They were off-the-cuff things that everyone says.”

    He said he had “a lot of Pakistani friends” and “Muslim friends”, and that he was “sick to death” of being asked about the footage

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/28/reform-investigate-claim-racist-activist-actor-channel-four/

    Asking the PB massive, am I racist because I've never had a Muslim girlfriend?

    The open question is was he acting, or were those his views. He's only got a week to wait if he was actually acting and then comes out with gushing interviews about how "I set reform up, it was a service to the nation". He would likely get a lot of work off the back of that from people who hate Farage.
    There's no way on God's green earth he'll admit he was acting prior to the big bong at 10 PM next Thursday.
    So apparently there's source material showing him campaigning for UKIP/Farage as far back as 2014, that's a decade as a sleeper agent.
    If you are going to do a sting, best not to make the subject an apparent card carrying equity holder who specialises in Alf Garnetesque "rough voice" characters and campaigns in character.
    The initial report had 3 different Reform UK campaigners saying problematic things. Why are we forgetting the other two?
    Simple attempt to change the narrative and hope people forget about the other 2
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 19,382
    Sad News.

    Jack Petchey is someone who did well and then did go on to do a lot of good.

    (And modelling that to the younger generation. The winners of his awards didn't get the cash for themselves, but they got to nominate a project that Petchey money would then fund.)

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cgerjvy284yo
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,497
    Pulpstar said:

    Fermanagh and South Tyrone must be the most invariant marginal in the whole of the UK.

    Also one of the most beautiful, wonderful rural scenery and historic Enniskillen and its ancient castle
  • sbjme19sbjme19 Posts: 194
    Is the homophobe complaining about the police car an actor as well?
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,761
    For those panicking about Biden (and I regret to say I'm joining that camp)... I think the next President market offers some reasonable odds.

    For instance if you think Biden may choose to stand down (or be forced to)... you can get 26/1 on Kamala Harris winning. Or 600/1 on Buttigieg.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 6,000
    Delicious meme doing the rounds, a crazed Jill from last night, freeze frame mouth open mid rant in front of Joe. Labelled Hawk Tuah.

    Anyway as for the UK, I feel like I see reds under the bed these days. That Reform “actor” story doesn’t make me think it’s an establishment stitch up gone wrong at all. But instead a cunning plan by You Know Who, hiring an obvious stooge to paint Farage as racist, waiting for the story to get traction, and then leaking that it was a setup. Wars aren’t only fought with bullets and bombs…
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    Gavin Newsom must fancy his chances:

    https://x.com/neriakraus/status/1806529228835303448
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,497
    williamglenn said:

    Gavin Newsom must fancy his chances:

    https://x.com/neriakraus/status/1806529228835303448

    So did Hillary against Trump, the voters thought otherwise
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,497
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I am glad the pubs are closing if this is the sort of talk that goes on in them.

    A Reform UK volunteer who was filmed by Channel 4 News calling Rishi Sunak a “f------ p---” has apologised, saying he was “goaded on”.

    Andrew Parker said he made the comments, recorded by undercover reporters, “in the heat of the moment”.

    Mr Parker also confirmed claims that he was a part-time actor but said he got involved with Reform UK after contacting the party himself and volunteering to do leafleting because he believes in its message.

    He said he had not told the party that he was an actor.

    Mr Parker said: “Of course I regret what I said. Christ, I’m not a racist. I’ve had Muslim girlfriends. It was typical chaps-down-the-pub talk.”

    Asked whether he would like to apologise, he said: “Of course I’m sorry. They were off-the-cuff things that everyone says.”

    He said he had “a lot of Pakistani friends” and “Muslim friends”, and that he was “sick to death” of being asked about the footage

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/28/reform-investigate-claim-racist-activist-actor-channel-four/

    Asking the PB massive, am I racist because I've never had a Muslim girlfriend?

    The open question is was he acting, or were those his views. He's only got a week to wait if he was actually acting and then comes out with gushing interviews about how "I set reform up, it was a service to the nation". He would likely get a lot of work off the back of that from people who hate Farage.
    There's no way on God's green earth he'll admit he was acting prior to the big bong at 10 PM next Thursday.
    So apparently there's source material showing him campaigning for UKIP/Farage as far back as 2014, that's a decade as a sleeper agent.
    A lot of ReformUK tweets now going around saying Trump US, Le Pen France then Farage UK
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Up the sherry drinkers!



    NEW: A poll has been released showing the UK’s voting intention by alcoholic drink preference

    https://x.com/politlcsuk/status/1806672615769075805?s=46&t=eiaG-Nju8t7zgfE3oCmAHA
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,726
    Aggregate totals for the parties across the two prediction articles.
    SF 6
    DUP 3
    APNI 2
    SDLP 2
    UUP 1
    IND 1
    Aren't there three seats missing?
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 15,608
    HYUFD said:

    williamglenn said:

    Gavin Newsom must fancy his chances:

    https://x.com/neriakraus/status/1806529228835303448

    So did Hillary against Trump, the voters thought otherwise
    Well, the voters in certain states. She got more votes than Trump.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,497
    bondegezou said:

    HYUFD said:

    williamglenn said:

    Gavin Newsom must fancy his chances:

    https://x.com/neriakraus/status/1806529228835303448

    So did Hillary against Trump, the voters thought otherwise
    Well, the voters in certain states. She got more votes than Trump.
    But the lowest Democratic share of the Electoral College since Dukakis in 1988.

    As for Newsom he reminds me of McGovern v Trump's Nixon 1972 on first impressions and we all know who won that one!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,593
    CarlottaVance said:

    Up the sherry drinkers!



    NEW: A poll has been released showing the UK’s voting intention by alcoholic drink preference

    https://x.com/politlcsuk/status/1806672615769075805?s=46&t=eiaG-Nju8t7zgfE3oCmAHA

    The country is never going to be taken over by shandy and cider drinkers. So Leon is wrong. Again.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,954
    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I am glad the pubs are closing if this is the sort of talk that goes on in them.

    A Reform UK volunteer who was filmed by Channel 4 News calling Rishi Sunak a “f------ p---” has apologised, saying he was “goaded on”.

    Andrew Parker said he made the comments, recorded by undercover reporters, “in the heat of the moment”.

    Mr Parker also confirmed claims that he was a part-time actor but said he got involved with Reform UK after contacting the party himself and volunteering to do leafleting because he believes in its message.

    He said he had not told the party that he was an actor.

    Mr Parker said: “Of course I regret what I said. Christ, I’m not a racist. I’ve had Muslim girlfriends. It was typical chaps-down-the-pub talk.”

    Asked whether he would like to apologise, he said: “Of course I’m sorry. They were off-the-cuff things that everyone says.”

    He said he had “a lot of Pakistani friends” and “Muslim friends”, and that he was “sick to death” of being asked about the footage

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/28/reform-investigate-claim-racist-activist-actor-channel-four/

    Asking the PB massive, am I racist because I've never had a Muslim girlfriend?

    The open question is was he acting, or were those his views. He's only got a week to wait if he was actually acting and then comes out with gushing interviews about how "I set reform up, it was a service to the nation". He would likely get a lot of work off the back of that from people who hate Farage.
    There's no way on God's green earth he'll admit he was acting prior to the big bong at 10 PM next Thursday.
    So apparently there's source material showing him campaigning for UKIP/Farage as far back as 2014, that's a decade as a sleeper agent.
    A lot of ReformUK tweets now going around saying Trump US, Le Pen France then Farage UK
    Путин Кремль
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,344
    rkrkrk said:

    For those panicking about Biden (and I regret to say I'm joining that camp)... I think the next President market offers some reasonable odds.

    For instance if you think Biden may choose to stand down (or be forced to)... you can get 26/1 on Kamala Harris winning. Or 600/1 on Buttigieg.

    Buttigieg: a bit at 1000 on Smarkets.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,984
    williamglenn said:

    mwadams said:

    FPT:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Pro_Rate....live it was far worse than the highlights. It wasn't a person gets one answer a bit mixed up.

    I agree. If the clips packages are making it look "not too bad" for Biden, they are being very, very generous. It was painful to watch last night.

    If the Democrats don't get Biden to step aside and maximize any positive publicity they can extract from an Open Convention, the world will be in a very bad place next year.
    There's a risk that an open convention would turn into a repeat of 1968.
    Didn't the Democrats come back strongly after the convention in 1968? Nixon had been massively ahead, and ended up with a pretty narrow victory (43.4 v 42.7)?

    Indeed, if it hadn't been for Wallace making Humphrey's vote very inefficient in the South - both by taking some states and handing others to Nixon - then he might have won.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 56,331
    moonshine said:

    Delicious meme doing the rounds, a crazed Jill from last night, freeze frame mouth open mid rant in front of Joe. Labelled Hawk Tuah.

    Anyway as for the UK, I feel like I see reds under the bed these days. That Reform “actor” story doesn’t make me think it’s an establishment stitch up gone wrong at all. But instead a cunning plan by You Know Who, hiring an obvious stooge to paint Farage as racist, waiting for the story to get traction, and then leaking that it was a setup. Wars aren’t only fought with bullets and bombs…

    You Know Who? Voldemort? Are you suggesting JKR is funding black ops against Reform?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,593
    edited June 2024
    Stocky said:

    rkrkrk said:

    For those panicking about Biden (and I regret to say I'm joining that camp)... I think the next President market offers some reasonable odds.

    For instance if you think Biden may choose to stand down (or be forced to)... you can get 26/1 on Kamala Harris winning. Or 600/1 on Buttigieg.

    Buttigieg: a bit at 1000 on Smarkets.
    If Buttijig gets Pres I think I could afford a bottle of decent Sasiccaia for Xmas
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,984
    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I am glad the pubs are closing if this is the sort of talk that goes on in them.

    A Reform UK volunteer who was filmed by Channel 4 News calling Rishi Sunak a “f------ p---” has apologised, saying he was “goaded on”.

    Andrew Parker said he made the comments, recorded by undercover reporters, “in the heat of the moment”.

    Mr Parker also confirmed claims that he was a part-time actor but said he got involved with Reform UK after contacting the party himself and volunteering to do leafleting because he believes in its message.

    He said he had not told the party that he was an actor.

    Mr Parker said: “Of course I regret what I said. Christ, I’m not a racist. I’ve had Muslim girlfriends. It was typical chaps-down-the-pub talk.”

    Asked whether he would like to apologise, he said: “Of course I’m sorry. They were off-the-cuff things that everyone says.”

    He said he had “a lot of Pakistani friends” and “Muslim friends”, and that he was “sick to death” of being asked about the footage

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/28/reform-investigate-claim-racist-activist-actor-channel-four/

    Asking the PB massive, am I racist because I've never had a Muslim girlfriend?

    The open question is was he acting, or were those his views. He's only got a week to wait if he was actually acting and then comes out with gushing interviews about how "I set reform up, it was a service to the nation". He would likely get a lot of work off the back of that from people who hate Farage.
    There's no way on God's green earth he'll admit he was acting prior to the big bong at 10 PM next Thursday.
    So apparently there's source material showing him campaigning for UKIP/Farage as far back as 2014, that's a decade as a sleeper agent.
    A lot of ReformUK tweets now going around saying Trump US, Le Pen France then Farage UK
    Wow! Twitter you say!
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 6,000
    Malmesbury said:

    moonshine said:

    Delicious meme doing the rounds, a crazed Jill from last night, freeze frame mouth open mid rant in front of Joe. Labelled Hawk Tuah.

    Anyway as for the UK, I feel like I see reds under the bed these days. That Reform “actor” story doesn’t make me think it’s an establishment stitch up gone wrong at all. But instead a cunning plan by You Know Who, hiring an obvious stooge to paint Farage as racist, waiting for the story to get traction, and then leaking that it was a setup. Wars aren’t only fought with bullets and bombs…

    You Know Who? Voldemort? Are you suggesting JKR is funding black ops against Reform?
    The other embodiment of evil beginning V
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 4,766
    maxh said:

    MisterBedfordshire said:

    Saw my first Tory posters today. Three of them. All on the railings of the town Conservative Club balcony.

    They also had a union flag which for some reason was flying at half mast.

    I can think of some reasons...
    They should fly it upsidedown...
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,839
    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I am glad the pubs are closing if this is the sort of talk that goes on in them.

    A Reform UK volunteer who was filmed by Channel 4 News calling Rishi Sunak a “f------ p---” has apologised, saying he was “goaded on”.

    Andrew Parker said he made the comments, recorded by undercover reporters, “in the heat of the moment”.

    Mr Parker also confirmed claims that he was a part-time actor but said he got involved with Reform UK after contacting the party himself and volunteering to do leafleting because he believes in its message.

    He said he had not told the party that he was an actor.

    Mr Parker said: “Of course I regret what I said. Christ, I’m not a racist. I’ve had Muslim girlfriends. It was typical chaps-down-the-pub talk.”

    Asked whether he would like to apologise, he said: “Of course I’m sorry. They were off-the-cuff things that everyone says.”

    He said he had “a lot of Pakistani friends” and “Muslim friends”, and that he was “sick to death” of being asked about the footage

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/28/reform-investigate-claim-racist-activist-actor-channel-four/

    Asking the PB massive, am I racist because I've never had a Muslim girlfriend?

    The open question is was he acting, or were those his views. He's only got a week to wait if he was actually acting and then comes out with gushing interviews about how "I set reform up, it was a service to the nation". He would likely get a lot of work off the back of that from people who hate Farage.
    There's no way on God's green earth he'll admit he was acting prior to the big bong at 10 PM next Thursday.
    So apparently there's source material showing him campaigning for UKIP/Farage as far back as 2014, that's a decade as a sleeper agent.
    A lot of ReformUK tweets now going around saying Trump US, Le Pen France then Farage UK
    Well a possible one-out-of-three isn't bad I suppose. And even that's dependent on Biden not pulling out
  • MattWMattW Posts: 29,089
    edited June 2024
    bondegezou said:

    MisterBedfordshire said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I am glad the pubs are closing if this is the sort of talk that goes on in them.

    A Reform UK volunteer who was filmed by Channel 4 News calling Rishi Sunak a “f------ p---” has apologised, saying he was “goaded on”.

    Andrew Parker said he made the comments, recorded by undercover reporters, “in the heat of the moment”.

    Mr Parker also confirmed claims that he was a part-time actor but said he got involved with Reform UK after contacting the party himself and volunteering to do leafleting because he believes in its message.

    He said he had not told the party that he was an actor.

    Mr Parker said: “Of course I regret what I said. Christ, I’m not a racist. I’ve had Muslim girlfriends. It was typical chaps-down-the-pub talk.”

    Asked whether he would like to apologise, he said: “Of course I’m sorry. They were off-the-cuff things that everyone says.”

    He said he had “a lot of Pakistani friends” and “Muslim friends”, and that he was “sick to death” of being asked about the footage

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/28/reform-investigate-claim-racist-activist-actor-channel-four/

    Asking the PB massive, am I racist because I've never had a Muslim girlfriend?

    The open question is was he acting, or were those his views. He's only got a week to wait if he was actually acting and then comes out with gushing interviews about how "I set reform up, it was a service to the nation". He would likely get a lot of work off the back of that from people who hate Farage.
    There's no way on God's green earth he'll admit he was acting prior to the big bong at 10 PM next Thursday.
    So apparently there's source material showing him campaigning for UKIP/Farage as far back as 2014, that's a decade as a sleeper agent.
    If you are going to do a sting, best not to make the subject an apparent card carrying equity holder who specialises in Alf Garnetesque "rough voice" characters and campaigns in character.
    The initial report had 3 different Reform UK campaigners saying problematic things. Why are we forgetting the other two?
    Correct. This is squirrel throwing from Farage. I think it's more likely the actor a real activist who is now spinning for Farage to discredit C4.

    The ones Farage should be (probably is, given that he isn't a doofus) worried about are those in the pub conversation:

    George Jones, Farage's Events Organiser
    Dan Jukes, Reform National Press Officer
    Roger Gravit, Reform London Area Manager
    Rob Bates, Senior Reform Campaigner

    Talking about:

    Rainbow flags on police cars as "degenerate".
    Inclusive campaigners and Islamist campaigners compared to Stalin and Hitler wrt to 'us' being Poland.
    Needing "straight" police officers.
    "Paramilitary" police.
    Bring back the noose.

    These guys are the core of Farage's team.

    https://youtu.be/JmkMpYbOoO0?t=374
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,593
    edited June 2024
    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I am glad the pubs are closing if this is the sort of talk that goes on in them.

    A Reform UK volunteer who was filmed by Channel 4 News calling Rishi Sunak a “f------ p---” has apologised, saying he was “goaded on”.

    Andrew Parker said he made the comments, recorded by undercover reporters, “in the heat of the moment”.

    Mr Parker also confirmed claims that he was a part-time actor but said he got involved with Reform UK after contacting the party himself and volunteering to do leafleting because he believes in its message.

    He said he had not told the party that he was an actor.

    Mr Parker said: “Of course I regret what I said. Christ, I’m not a racist. I’ve had Muslim girlfriends. It was typical chaps-down-the-pub talk.”

    Asked whether he would like to apologise, he said: “Of course I’m sorry. They were off-the-cuff things that everyone says.”

    He said he had “a lot of Pakistani friends” and “Muslim friends”, and that he was “sick to death” of being asked about the footage

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/28/reform-investigate-claim-racist-activist-actor-channel-four/

    Asking the PB massive, am I racist because I've never had a Muslim girlfriend?

    The open question is was he acting, or were those his views. He's only got a week to wait if he was actually acting and then comes out with gushing interviews about how "I set reform up, it was a service to the nation". He would likely get a lot of work off the back of that from people who hate Farage.
    There's no way on God's green earth he'll admit he was acting prior to the big bong at 10 PM next Thursday.
    So apparently there's source material showing him campaigning for UKIP/Farage as far back as 2014, that's a decade as a sleeper agent.
    A lot of ReformUK tweets now going around saying Trump US, Le Pen France then Farage UK
    I trust that you recommended that they all invest in a 2024 calendar.
  • MisterBedfordshireMisterBedfordshire Posts: 2,252
    edited June 2024
    MattW said:

    bondegezou said:

    MisterBedfordshire said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I am glad the pubs are closing if this is the sort of talk that goes on in them.

    A Reform UK volunteer who was filmed by Channel 4 News calling Rishi Sunak a “f------ p---” has apologised, saying he was “goaded on”.

    Andrew Parker said he made the comments, recorded by undercover reporters, “in the heat of the moment”.

    Mr Parker also confirmed claims that he was a part-time actor but said he got involved with Reform UK after contacting the party himself and volunteering to do leafleting because he believes in its message.

    He said he had not told the party that he was an actor.

    Mr Parker said: “Of course I regret what I said. Christ, I’m not a racist. I’ve had Muslim girlfriends. It was typical chaps-down-the-pub talk.”

    Asked whether he would like to apologise, he said: “Of course I’m sorry. They were off-the-cuff things that everyone says.”

    He said he had “a lot of Pakistani friends” and “Muslim friends”, and that he was “sick to death” of being asked about the footage

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/28/reform-investigate-claim-racist-activist-actor-channel-four/

    Asking the PB massive, am I racist because I've never had a Muslim girlfriend?

    The open question is was he acting, or were those his views. He's only got a week to wait if he was actually acting and then comes out with gushing interviews about how "I set reform up, it was a service to the nation". He would likely get a lot of work off the back of that from people who hate Farage.
    There's no way on God's green earth he'll admit he was acting prior to the big bong at 10 PM next Thursday.
    So apparently there's source material showing him campaigning for UKIP/Farage as far back as 2014, that's a decade as a sleeper agent.
    If you are going to do a sting, best not to make the subject an apparent card carrying equity holder who specialises in Alf Garnetesque "rough voice" characters and campaigns in character.
    The initial report had 3 different Reform UK campaigners saying problematic things. Why are we forgetting the other two?
    Correct. This is squirrel throwing from Farage. I think it's more likely the actor a real activist who is now spinning for Farage to discredit C4.

    The ones Farage should be (probably is, given that he isn't a doofus) worried about are those in the pub conversation:

    George Jones, Farage's Events Organiser
    Dan Jukes, Reform National Press Officer
    Roger Gravit, Reform London Area Manager
    Rob Bates, Senior Reform Campaigner

    Talking about:

    Rainbow flags on police cars as "degenerate".
    Inclusive campaigners and Islamist campaigners compared to Stalin and Hitler wrt to 'us' being Poland.
    Needing "straight" police officers.
    "Paramilitary" police.
    Bring back the noose.

    These guys are the core of Farage's team.

    https://youtu.be/JmkMpYbOoO0?t=374
    Sort of thing that if the Tories did it a couple of decades back would have been labelled "dog whistle politics"
  • LloydBanksLloydBanks Posts: 45
    MisterBedfordshire said:

    Saw my first Tory posters today. Three of them. All on the railings of the town Conservative Club balcony.

    They also had a union flag which for some reason was flying at half mast.

    The Conservative Club in South Croydon hadn't even bothered putting up a Philp board when I drove past the other day
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,466
    ..
    MisterBedfordshire said:



    They also had a union flag which for some reason was flying at half mast.

    A drill for next Friday?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    https://x.com/kaylatausche/status/1806675665845903645

    NEW, as just reported on @CNN: Not only does @POTUS not plan to drop out, Biden remains committed to a second debate in September, an adviser tells me
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,954
    williamglenn said:

    https://x.com/kaylatausche/status/1806675665845903645

    NEW, as just reported on @CNN: Not only does @POTUS not plan to drop out, Biden remains committed to a second debate in September, an adviser tells me

    Fantastic news for me and Casino 8)
  • AbandonedHopeAbandonedHope Posts: 161
    edited June 2024
    MisterBedfordshire said:

    Saw my first Tory posters today. Three of them. All on the railings of the town Conservative Club balcony.

    They also had a union flag which for some reason was flying at half mast.

    Any suggestion that there is an election taking place in these parts (East Yorkshire) is few and far between. Saw three hoardings on a fence on the outskirts of Driffield for the Tory candidate; two orange diamonds in Leconfield ("Winning Here"); and a solitary 'blink and you'll miss it' sign for Graham Stuart in neighbouring Beverley.

    Not aware of any candidates out on the doorstep or pressing the flesh on market days. Very little literature until last week, at which point the letterbox was crammed with glossy leaflets promoting various parties, a flyer for Farm Foods and a note from my window cleaner to say he was going on holiday and asking if he could skip a month.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 29,089
    MisterBedfordshire said:

    MattW said:

    bondegezou said:

    MisterBedfordshire said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I am glad the pubs are closing if this is the sort of talk that goes on in them.

    A Reform UK volunteer who was filmed by Channel 4 News calling Rishi Sunak a “f------ p---” has apologised, saying he was “goaded on”.

    Andrew Parker said he made the comments, recorded by undercover reporters, “in the heat of the moment”.

    Mr Parker also confirmed claims that he was a part-time actor but said he got involved with Reform UK after contacting the party himself and volunteering to do leafleting because he believes in its message.

    He said he had not told the party that he was an actor.

    Mr Parker said: “Of course I regret what I said. Christ, I’m not a racist. I’ve had Muslim girlfriends. It was typical chaps-down-the-pub talk.”

    Asked whether he would like to apologise, he said: “Of course I’m sorry. They were off-the-cuff things that everyone says.”

    He said he had “a lot of Pakistani friends” and “Muslim friends”, and that he was “sick to death” of being asked about the footage

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/28/reform-investigate-claim-racist-activist-actor-channel-four/

    Asking the PB massive, am I racist because I've never had a Muslim girlfriend?

    The open question is was he acting, or were those his views. He's only got a week to wait if he was actually acting and then comes out with gushing interviews about how "I set reform up, it was a service to the nation". He would likely get a lot of work off the back of that from people who hate Farage.
    There's no way on God's green earth he'll admit he was acting prior to the big bong at 10 PM next Thursday.
    So apparently there's source material showing him campaigning for UKIP/Farage as far back as 2014, that's a decade as a sleeper agent.
    If you are going to do a sting, best not to make the subject an apparent card carrying equity holder who specialises in Alf Garnetesque "rough voice" characters and campaigns in character.
    The initial report had 3 different Reform UK campaigners saying problematic things. Why are we forgetting the other two?
    Correct. This is squirrel throwing from Farage. I think it's more likely the actor a real activist who is now spinning for Farage to discredit C4.

    The ones Farage should be (probably is, given that he isn't a doofus) worried about are those in the pub conversation:

    George Jones, Farage's Events Organiser
    Dan Jukes, Reform National Press Officer
    Roger Gravit, Reform London Area Manager
    Rob Bates, Senior Reform Campaigner

    Talking about:

    Rainbow flags on police cars as "degenerate".
    Inclusive campaigners and Islamist campaigners compared to Stalin and Hitler wrt to 'us' being Poland.
    Needing "straight" police officers.
    "Paramilitary" police.
    Bring back the noose.

    These guys are the core of Farage's team.

    https://youtu.be/JmkMpYbOoO0?t=374
    Sort of thing that if the Tories did it a couple of decades back would have been labelled "dog whistle politics"
    Yep. Times have moved on.

    They also used (but it was the activist C4 were accompanying / covertly filming / planted) 'London is like being a foreigner in your own country',

    William Hague, 2001, Leader's Conference Speech:

    "Let me take you on a journey to a foreign land - to Britain after a second term of Tony Blair..."
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2001/mar/05/conservatives.election20011
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 5,178
    edited June 2024
    AbandonedHope said:

    MisterBedfordshire said:

    Saw my first Tory posters today. Three of them. All on the railings of the town Conservative Club balcony.

    They also had a union flag which for some reason was flying at half mast.

    Any suggestion that there is an election taking place in these parts (East Yorkshire) is few and far between. Saw three hoardings on a fence on the outskirts of Driffield for the Tory candidate; two orange diamonds in Leconfield ("Winning Here"); and a solitary 'blink and you'll miss it' sign for Graham Stuart in neighbouring Beverley.

    Not aware of any candidates out on the doorstep or pressing get flesh on market days. Very little literature until last week, at which point the letterbox was crammed with glossy leaflets promoting various parties, a flyer for Farm Foods and a note from my window cleaner to say he was going on holiday and asking if he could skip a month.
    I did see quite a few Graham Stuart posters east of Beverley (in fields) and a single Green in Beverley itself.

    I have seen no posters at all yet in any of the 3 constituencies in Flatland Central (Doncaster). Probably because they are all going to go to the red team and no amount of campaigning will make any difference.

    Ed Miliband is very rarely seen anyway, although apparently the replacement for Rosie Winterton has been around and about, which is the minimum you'd expect for a new candidate.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,839
    rkrkrk said:

    For those panicking about Biden (and I regret to say I'm joining that camp)... I think the next President market offers some reasonable odds.

    For instance if you think Biden may choose to stand down (or be forced to)... you can get 26/1 on Kamala Harris winning. Or 600/1 on Buttigieg.

    Is there a mechanism for someone other than Kamala Harris to take over?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 32,262
    The Rest Is Politics (premiere on now): Al calls last night a game changer and says Biden must stand down. The problem is finding a mechanism for Harris to also go, and then to find someone with no baggage.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d1xrMBJcYqo
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,466
    Pulpstar said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://x.com/kaylatausche/status/1806675665845903645

    NEW, as just reported on @CNN: Not only does @POTUS not plan to drop out, Biden remains committed to a second debate in September, an adviser tells me

    Fantastic news for me and Casino 8)
    You can spend your winnings on a tin helmet as you battle to keep the Cossacks from taking the Arc de Triomphe.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 64,005
    As predicted. The Dems will fall into line. Biden stays. So all this has done is massively damage him - even as he stays the candidate

    Helplessly bad. But it’s kinda what they deserve after all their lies for two years - “he’s always stammered”, “he’s amazing in private”, “he’s sharper than ever and wears adult diapers for fun”
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,761
    Roger said:

    rkrkrk said:

    For those panicking about Biden (and I regret to say I'm joining that camp)... I think the next President market offers some reasonable odds.

    For instance if you think Biden may choose to stand down (or be forced to)... you can get 26/1 on Kamala Harris winning. Or 600/1 on Buttigieg.

    Is there a mechanism for someone other than Kamala Harris to take over?
    If Biden chose to stand down, I think he could also throw it open to delegates to pick someone.

    We are well into the realms of political fan fantasy now though...
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 56,331
    Roger said:

    rkrkrk said:

    For those panicking about Biden (and I regret to say I'm joining that camp)... I think the next President market offers some reasonable odds.

    For instance if you think Biden may choose to stand down (or be forced to)... you can get 26/1 on Kamala Harris winning. Or 600/1 on Buttigieg.

    Is there a mechanism for someone other than Kamala Harris to take over?
    Not really. Outside West Wing (the TV Show), where the Democratic Party is controlled by 5 people… the real one is controlled by a variety of groups and has very detailed rules and procedures.

    Anyone trying to take over from Biden needs broad and deep support in the party.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,839
    MattW said:

    bondegezou said:

    MisterBedfordshire said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I am glad the pubs are closing if this is the sort of talk that goes on in them.

    A Reform UK volunteer who was filmed by Channel 4 News calling Rishi Sunak a “f------ p---” has apologised, saying he was “goaded on”.

    Andrew Parker said he made the comments, recorded by undercover reporters, “in the heat of the moment”.

    Mr Parker also confirmed claims that he was a part-time actor but said he got involved with Reform UK after contacting the party himself and volunteering to do leafleting because he believes in its message.

    He said he had not told the party that he was an actor.

    Mr Parker said: “Of course I regret what I said. Christ, I’m not a racist. I’ve had Muslim girlfriends. It was typical chaps-down-the-pub talk.”

    Asked whether he would like to apologise, he said: “Of course I’m sorry. They were off-the-cuff things that everyone says.”

    He said he had “a lot of Pakistani friends” and “Muslim friends”, and that he was “sick to death” of being asked about the footage

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/28/reform-investigate-claim-racist-activist-actor-channel-four/

    Asking the PB massive, am I racist because I've never had a Muslim girlfriend?

    The open question is was he acting, or were those his views. He's only got a week to wait if he was actually acting and then comes out with gushing interviews about how "I set reform up, it was a service to the nation". He would likely get a lot of work off the back of that from people who hate Farage.
    There's no way on God's green earth he'll admit he was acting prior to the big bong at 10 PM next Thursday.
    So apparently there's source material showing him campaigning for UKIP/Farage as far back as 2014, that's a decade as a sleeper agent.
    If you are going to do a sting, best not to make the subject an apparent card carrying equity holder who specialises in Alf Garnetesque "rough voice" characters and campaigns in character.
    The initial report had 3 different Reform UK campaigners saying problematic things. Why are we forgetting the other two?
    Correct. This is squirrel throwing from Farage. I think it's more likely the actor a real activist who is now spinning for Farage to discredit C4.

    The ones Farage should be (probably is, given that he isn't a doofus) worried about are those in the pub conversation:

    George Jones, Farage's Events Organiser
    Dan Jukes, Reform National Press Officer
    Roger Gravit, Reform London Area Manager
    Rob Bates, Senior Reform Campaigner

    Talking about:

    Rainbow flags on police cars as "degenerate".
    Inclusive campaigners and Islamist campaigners compared to Stalin and Hitler wrt to 'us' being Poland.
    Needing "straight" police officers.
    "Paramilitary" police.
    Bring back the noose.

    These guys are the core of Farage's team.

    https://youtu.be/JmkMpYbOoO0?t=374
    Farage had quite a go at his opponent in Clacton accusing him of racism!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,984
    williamglenn said:

    https://x.com/kaylatausche/status/1806675665845903645

    NEW, as just reported on @CNN: Not only does @POTUS not plan to drop out, Biden remains committed to a second debate in September, an adviser tells me

    Never believe anything until it has been officially denied.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,954
    Roger said:

    rkrkrk said:

    For those panicking about Biden (and I regret to say I'm joining that camp)... I think the next President market offers some reasonable odds.

    For instance if you think Biden may choose to stand down (or be forced to)... you can get 26/1 on Kamala Harris winning. Or 600/1 on Buttigieg.

    Is there a mechanism for someone other than Kamala Harris to take over?
    If you believe X, Gavin Newsom and Michelle Obama are going to have a dance off for it at the DNC.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 25,569
    CarlottaVance said:

    Up the sherry drinkers!



    NEW: A poll has been released showing the UK’s voting intention by alcoholic drink preference

    https://x.com/politlcsuk/status/1806672615769075805?s=46&t=eiaG-Nju8t7zgfE3oCmAHA

    What about us rum drinkers?

    The country clearly needs a pirate party!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,984
    CarlottaVance said:

    Up the sherry drinkers!



    NEW: A poll has been released showing the UK’s voting intention by alcoholic drink preference

    https://x.com/politlcsuk/status/1806672615769075805?s=46&t=eiaG-Nju8t7zgfE3oCmAHA

    That is a fascinating poll (really).

    The two best drinking demographics for Reform are Prosecco and shandy.

    Think about that for a second: an unholy alliance between people who think that lager is just not sweet enough, and people who like filthy foreign fizz.
  • PedestrianRockPedestrianRock Posts: 589
    FPT
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Most seats w/o Labour

    Cons 1.4
    LD 3.5

    Surely the most interesting bet at the moment?

    Yes it really is, it is getting indicated by more and more polls / MRPs now, and bolstered by reports of high levels of tactical voting, as well as the Reform share seeming to hold up well.

    A lot of people on here think it *can’t* happen but from what I gather this is mostly because “The Tories falling by X seats *feels* like too many” rather than any specific reasoning that the polls/MRPs might be wrong.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 6,000
    Leon said:

    As predicted. The Dems will fall into line. Biden stays. So all this has done is massively damage him - even as he stays the candidate

    Helplessly bad. But it’s kinda what they deserve after all their lies for two years - “he’s always stammered”, “he’s amazing in private”, “he’s sharper than ever and wears adult diapers for fun”

    Nah. It’s not even 10am the morning after. Biden won’t be running, they just need the last bit of the fix to overlook Harris too before the coup de grace.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,839
    MisterBedfordshire said:

    Saw my first Tory posters today. Three of them. All on the railings of the town Conservative Club balcony.

    .

    In that case Ludlow must look like the Cote d'Azur
  • glwglw Posts: 10,476
    Leon said:

    As predicted. The Dems will fall into line. Biden stays. So all this has done is massively damage him - even as he stays the candidate

    Helplessly bad. But it’s kinda what they deserve after all their lies for two years - “he’s always stammered”, “he’s amazing in private”, “he’s sharper than ever and wears adult diapers for fun”

    Biden in 2012 debating Paul Ryan.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yYcdSwbrErI
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 25,531
    glw said:

    Leon said:

    As predicted. The Dems will fall into line. Biden stays. So all this has done is massively damage him - even as he stays the candidate

    Helplessly bad. But it’s kinda what they deserve after all their lies for two years - “he’s always stammered”, “he’s amazing in private”, “he’s sharper than ever and wears adult diapers for fun”

    Biden in 2012 debating Paul Ryan.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yYcdSwbrErI
    Biden in 2008 debating Sarah Palin. Ish.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_iyIbbxVzrU
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 46,636
    Don't know if already posted but 😄😄

    https://x.com/shepmates/status/1806548231708705025?t=0Wi9-lyR0G66ZKacruxHqA&s=19
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,565
    Smarkets (and elsewhere?) quirk - on a binary event, e.g. yes or no answer, if I back yes and later lay yes to secure a profit then the profit becomes available in my balance. However if I back yes and then back no to secure a profit, both bets are counted at risk and not available in my balance.

    Is there any reason for this other than the algorithm not being that smart? Why do they offer back and lay on both yes and no on such a bet?

    (the particular example is Corbyn to win a seat - I've decided to take the profit on that and have backed yes after backing no as there's no liquidity to sell no. But it clearly won't be available until the market is settled)
  • PJHPJH Posts: 890
    Thank you to whoever it was that posted a link to a summary of all the predictions on the previous thread.

    https://inglesp.github.io/apogee/

    Very interesting and possible to see where the 3-way marginals and freak results might be.

    Also, there are only 11 seats that all models agree will be Conservative. Just 11 safe seats left? (By comparison, even the LDs have 20).
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,593
    LloydBanks said:

    MisterBedfordshire said:

    Saw my first Tory posters today. Three of them. All on the railings of the town Conservative Club balcony.

    They also had a union flag which for some reason was flying at half mast.

    The Conservative Club in South Croydon hadn't even bothered putting up a Philp board when I drove past the other day
    Most patrons of Conservative Clubs are elderly alcoholics who start their day’s drinking before lunchtime and are most unlikely to make it to the polling station at all. Think, Leon, in a decade or so’s time.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,954
    edited June 2024
    rcs1000 said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Up the sherry drinkers!



    NEW: A poll has been released showing the UK’s voting intention by alcoholic drink preference

    https://x.com/politlcsuk/status/1806672615769075805?s=46&t=eiaG-Nju8t7zgfE3oCmAHA

    That is a fascinating poll (really).

    The two best drinking demographics for Reform are Prosecco and shandy.

    Think about that for a second: an unholy alliance between people who think that lager is just not sweet enough, and people who like filthy foreign fizz.
    You're misreading it - it's not Prosecco, it's cider that's second.
  • PedestrianRockPedestrianRock Posts: 589
    Roger said:

    rkrkrk said:

    For those panicking about Biden (and I regret to say I'm joining that camp)... I think the next President market offers some reasonable odds.

    For instance if you think Biden may choose to stand down (or be forced to)... you can get 26/1 on Kamala Harris winning. Or 600/1 on Buttigieg.

    Is there a mechanism for someone other than Kamala Harris to take over?
    Here’s an issue with the pathways

    A) Keep Biden/Harris - bad for the reasons outlined

    B) Keep Biden as President to see out his term, but the 2024 ticket is Harris/new VP - Easy attack line for Trump “the Democrats are being irresponsible, leaving us with a lame duck President and making our country unsafe!”

    C) Elevate Harris now, choose new VP - Harris seen as a bad candidate. New VP might not get confirmed by House pre election. Trump can say “no VP, our country is exposed!”

    D) Ditch both Biden and Harris on the ticket, but keep them in power. Black female voters will see Harris as passed over, may annoy them a lot. Biden/Harris seen as lame ducks for Trump to attack. Hard to pick suitable new pair.

    E) Ditch Biden now, elevate Harris, but Harris not on ticket. Same problem as above, unless you can convince Michelle Obama and you think that’s a good strategy.

    It’s very very difficult. I sympathise with them not sorting this out sooner. Personally I think you either try for Michelle, or you go all in on Kamala. Sticking with Joe at this point feels very very dicey.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,101
    rcs1000 said:

    williamglenn said:

    mwadams said:

    FPT:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Pro_Rate....live it was far worse than the highlights. It wasn't a person gets one answer a bit mixed up.

    I agree. If the clips packages are making it look "not too bad" for Biden, they are being very, very generous. It was painful to watch last night.

    If the Democrats don't get Biden to step aside and maximize any positive publicity they can extract from an Open Convention, the world will be in a very bad place next year.
    There's a risk that an open convention would turn into a repeat of 1968.
    Didn't the Democrats come back strongly after the convention in 1968? Nixon had been massively ahead, and ended up with a pretty narrow victory (43.4 v 42.7)?

    Indeed, if it hadn't been for Wallace making Humphrey's vote very inefficient in the South - both by taking some states and handing others to Nixon - then he might have won.
    There was also the small matter of the frontrunner for the nomination, and likely winner of the presidential election, being assassinated.

    Comparisons with 1968 - when the party machine was a real thing, the McGovern campaign for the nomination was a brief insurgency, and Humphrey was effectively chosen by the party establishment, are far fetched.

    The process, should it ever happen, would be very different this time around.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,839
    Leon said:

    As predicted. The Dems will fall into line. Biden stays. So all this has done is massively damage him - even as he stays the candidate

    Helplessly bad. But it’s kinda what they deserve after all their lies for two years - “he’s always stammered”, “he’s amazing in private”, “he’s sharper than ever and wears adult diapers for fun”

    Are you sure you're not Richard Littlejohn?
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 6,265
    rcs1000 said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Up the sherry drinkers!



    NEW: A poll has been released showing the UK’s voting intention by alcoholic drink preference

    https://x.com/politlcsuk/status/1806672615769075805?s=46&t=eiaG-Nju8t7zgfE3oCmAHA

    That is a fascinating poll (really).

    The two best drinking demographics for Reform are Prosecco and shandy.

    Think about that for a second: an unholy alliance between people who think that lager is just not sweet enough, and people who like filthy foreign fizz.
    A prosecco shandy sounds ideal for one of those drinking games where you each choose a drink, mix them together and toss for who has got to drink it.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,497
    edited June 2024
    IanB2 said:

    LloydBanks said:

    MisterBedfordshire said:

    Saw my first Tory posters today. Three of them. All on the railings of the town Conservative Club balcony.

    They also had a union flag which for some reason was flying at half mast.

    The Conservative Club in South Croydon hadn't even bothered putting up a Philp board when I drove past the other day
    Most patrons of Conservative Clubs are elderly alcoholics who start their day’s drinking before lunchtime and are most unlikely to make it to the polling station at all. Think, Leon, in a decade or so’s time.
    Cheapest beer and best snooker and karaoke in town Con Clubs, if the Tories want to revive in opposition they could start rebuilding from there
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,101
    Roger said:

    rkrkrk said:

    For those panicking about Biden (and I regret to say I'm joining that camp)... I think the next President market offers some reasonable odds.

    For instance if you think Biden may choose to stand down (or be forced to)... you can get 26/1 on Kamala Harris winning. Or 600/1 on Buttigieg.

    Is there a mechanism for someone other than Kamala Harris to take over?
    The mechanism is a vote of delegates to the national convention. Which is in the middle of August.

    How you persuade several thousand individuals chosen largely on the basis of a record of loyalty to Joe Biden is something for which a known mechanism doesn't exit.
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 2,223
    Farooq said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Up the sherry drinkers!



    NEW: A poll has been released showing the UK’s voting intention by alcoholic drink preference

    https://x.com/politlcsuk/status/1806672615769075805?s=46&t=eiaG-Nju8t7zgfE3oCmAHA

    I'm a white wine drinker. I'm also known to be a filthy centrist. Judging from that graph, I've found my people.
    Best SNP score is for shandy drinkers? I would have thought they would be on hard stuff by now.
  • eekeek Posts: 30,881
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    LloydBanks said:

    MisterBedfordshire said:

    Saw my first Tory posters today. Three of them. All on the railings of the town Conservative Club balcony.

    They also had a union flag which for some reason was flying at half mast.

    The Conservative Club in South Croydon hadn't even bothered putting up a Philp board when I drove past the other day
    Most patrons of Conservative Clubs are elderly alcoholics who start their day’s drinking before lunchtime and are most unlikely to make it to the polling station at all. Think, Leon, in a decade or so’s time.
    Cheapest beer and best snooker and karaoke in town Con Clubs, if the Tories want to revive in opposition they could start rebuilding from there
    Except a lot of younger people simply don't drink nowadays - it's just not the sales pitch it used to be...

  • LeonLeon Posts: 64,005
    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    As predicted. The Dems will fall into line. Biden stays. So all this has done is massively damage him - even as he stays the candidate

    Helplessly bad. But it’s kinda what they deserve after all their lies for two years - “he’s always stammered”, “he’s amazing in private”, “he’s sharper than ever and wears adult diapers for fun”

    Nah. It’s not even 10am the morning after. Biden won’t be running, they just need the last bit of the fix to overlook Harris too before the coup de grace.
    That’s what I thought a few hours ago. But after contemplating - and seeing the first signs of wilful self-delusion “he wasn’t that bad really”, “ok he couldn’t form any words for an hour on live TV but he’s got a cold” I am fairly sure they will rationalise themselves to keeping him

    If it was EASY to replace him then Yes. He’d be gone tonight. But he apparently wants to stay and so does his wife and all the replacements are problematic

    However you may be right. Confronted with the horror of a likely Trump victory they may be galvanised

    Its compelling in a macabre way
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,497
    edited June 2024
    Roger said:

    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I am glad the pubs are closing if this is the sort of talk that goes on in them.

    A Reform UK volunteer who was filmed by Channel 4 News calling Rishi Sunak a “f------ p---” has apologised, saying he was “goaded on”.

    Andrew Parker said he made the comments, recorded by undercover reporters, “in the heat of the moment”.

    Mr Parker also confirmed claims that he was a part-time actor but said he got involved with Reform UK after contacting the party himself and volunteering to do leafleting because he believes in its message.

    He said he had not told the party that he was an actor.

    Mr Parker said: “Of course I regret what I said. Christ, I’m not a racist. I’ve had Muslim girlfriends. It was typical chaps-down-the-pub talk.”

    Asked whether he would like to apologise, he said: “Of course I’m sorry. They were off-the-cuff things that everyone says.”

    He said he had “a lot of Pakistani friends” and “Muslim friends”, and that he was “sick to death” of being asked about the footage

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/28/reform-investigate-claim-racist-activist-actor-channel-four/

    Asking the PB massive, am I racist because I've never had a Muslim girlfriend?

    The open question is was he acting, or were those his views. He's only got a week to wait if he was actually acting and then comes out with gushing interviews about how "I set reform up, it was a service to the nation". He would likely get a lot of work off the back of that from people who hate Farage.
    There's no way on God's green earth he'll admit he was acting prior to the big bong at 10 PM next Thursday.
    So apparently there's source material showing him campaigning for UKIP/Farage as far back as 2014, that's a decade as a sleeper agent.
    A lot of ReformUK tweets now going around saying Trump US, Le Pen France then Farage UK
    Well a possible one-out-of-three isn't bad I suppose. And even that's dependent on Biden not pulling out
    Le Pen's party is already heading for most legislative seats and is likely to have elected the next French PM within a month, Farage's party is also polling better than any party right of the Tories has done this close to a GE.

    No evidence any other Dem polls better than Biden v Trump either
  • LeonLeon Posts: 64,005
    Bloody hell ushant is lovely. The sun has entirely come out and there is nothing to do but drink nice wine and go sailing effortlessly down flower filled lanes on my ebike - beach to cove to creperie
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 32,262
    edited June 2024
    Only Connect - Insane 5 Point Guess
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pf91xEsaw8Q

    45-second video starring pb's favourite soon to be former MP.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 6,265
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    LloydBanks said:

    MisterBedfordshire said:

    Saw my first Tory posters today. Three of them. All on the railings of the town Conservative Club balcony.

    They also had a union flag which for some reason was flying at half mast.

    The Conservative Club in South Croydon hadn't even bothered putting up a Philp board when I drove past the other day
    Most patrons of Conservative Clubs are elderly alcoholics who start their day’s drinking before lunchtime and are most unlikely to make it to the polling station at all. Think, Leon, in a decade or so’s time.
    Cheapest beer and best snooker and karaoke in town Con Clubs, if the Tories want to revive in opposition they could start rebuilding from there
    I cannot now unsee you dancing round the table and singing Snooker Loopy whilst drinking a pint of mild!
This discussion has been closed.

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