Northern Ireland [Westminster] Constituencies : Part Two (Key Seats) – politicalbetting.com

System · June 28

Northern Ireland [Westminster] Constituencies : Part Two (Key Seats) – politicalbetting.com

I hope you all enjoyed Part One. Within this Article, we will analyse and predict which candidate and which party can become victorious in the upcoming Westminster General Election.

Read the full story here

Pulpstar · June 28

Fermanagh and South Tyrone must be the most invariant marginal in the whole of the UK.

mwadams · June 28

FPT:

FrancisUrquhart said:
Pro_Rate....live it was far worse than the highlights. It wasn't a person gets one answer a bit mixed up.

I agree. If the clips packages are making it look "not too bad" for Biden, they are being very, very generous. It was painful to watch last night.

If the Democrats don't get Biden to step aside and maximize any positive publicity they can extract from an Open Convention, the world will be in a very bad place next year.

MisterBedfordshire · June 28

FPT.

Scott_xP said:
RefUK have managed to elongate the 'racist campaigner' story for another cycle by claiming he is 'just' an actor

With the turn it has taken, seemingly an actor speaking "in character" they will be milking it until next Thursday.

Even if the guy is a genuine volunteer, doing a sting when the guy you sting is card carrying equity member, using the "in character" voice he advertises on his website as an Alf Garnetesque "Rough Voice", (as opposed to his rather more well spoken normal voice), is a backfiring fail of monumental proportions.

TheScreamingEagles · June 28

I am glad the pubs are closing if this is the sort of talk that goes on in them.

A Reform UK volunteer who was filmed by Channel 4 News calling Rishi Sunak a “f------ p---” has apologised, saying he was “goaded on”.

Andrew Parker said he made the comments, recorded by undercover reporters, “in the heat of the moment”.

Mr Parker also confirmed claims that he was a part-time actor but said he got involved with Reform UK after contacting the party himself and volunteering to do leafleting because he believes in its message.

He said he had not told the party that he was an actor.

Mr Parker said: “Of course I regret what I said. Christ, I’m not a racist. I’ve had Muslim girlfriends. It was typical chaps-down-the-pub talk.”

Asked whether he would like to apologise, he said: “Of course I’m sorry. They were off-the-cuff things that everyone says.”

He said he had “a lot of Pakistani friends” and “Muslim friends”, and that he was “sick to death” of being asked about the footage

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/28/reform-investigate-claim-racist-activist-actor-channel-four/

Asking the PB massive, am I racist because I've never had a Muslim girlfriend?

williamglenn · June 28

mwadams said:
FPT:

FrancisUrquhart said:
Pro_Rate....live it was far worse than the highlights. It wasn't a person gets one answer a bit mixed up.
I agree. If the clips packages are making it look "not too bad" for Biden, they are being very, very generous. It was painful to watch last night.

If the Democrats don't get Biden to step aside and maximize any positive publicity they can extract from an Open Convention, the world will be in a very bad place next year.

There's a risk that an open convention would turn into a repeat of 1968.

Farooq · June 28

TheScreamingEagles said:
I am glad the pubs are closing if this is the sort of talk that goes on in them.

A Reform UK volunteer who was filmed by Channel 4 News calling Rishi Sunak a “f------ p---” has apologised, saying he was “goaded on”.

Andrew Parker said he made the comments, recorded by undercover reporters, “in the heat of the moment”.

Mr Parker also confirmed claims that he was a part-time actor but said he got involved with Reform UK after contacting the party himself and volunteering to do leafleting because he believes in its message.

He said he had not told the party that he was an actor.

Mr Parker said: “Of course I regret what I said. Christ, I’m not a racist. I’ve had Muslim girlfriends. It was typical chaps-down-the-pub talk.”

Asked whether he would like to apologise, he said: “Of course I’m sorry. They were off-the-cuff things that everyone says.”

He said he had “a lot of Pakistani friends” and “Muslim friends”, and that he was “sick to death” of being asked about the footage

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/28/reform-investigate-claim-racist-activist-actor-channel-four/

Asking the PB massive, am I racist because I've never had a Muslim girlfriend?

Have you had a Muslim boyfriend? If so, you're in the clear and you can apply for an official Farooq-brand certificate* of non-racism.

*only available on white paper

Unpopular · June 28

Pulpstar said:
Fermanagh and South Tyrone must be the most invariant marginal in the whole of the UK.

As the deluge of the debate subsides, and the ramblings fall short, we see the dreary steeples of Fermanagh and Tyrone emerging once again.

TheScreamingEagles · June 28

Thoughts and prayers for my colleagues at HSBC, Barclays, Nationwide, and Virgin Money.

On what is payday for most Brits.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c3g03ejjl1yo

TheScreamingEagles · June 28

Farooq said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
I am glad the pubs are closing if this is the sort of talk that goes on in them.

A Reform UK volunteer who was filmed by Channel 4 News calling Rishi Sunak a “f------ p---” has apologised, saying he was “goaded on”.

Andrew Parker said he made the comments, recorded by undercover reporters, “in the heat of the moment”.

Mr Parker also confirmed claims that he was a part-time actor but said he got involved with Reform UK after contacting the party himself and volunteering to do leafleting because he believes in its message.

He said he had not told the party that he was an actor.

Mr Parker said: “Of course I regret what I said. Christ, I’m not a racist. I’ve had Muslim girlfriends. It was typical chaps-down-the-pub talk.”

Asked whether he would like to apologise, he said: “Of course I’m sorry. They were off-the-cuff things that everyone says.”

He said he had “a lot of Pakistani friends” and “Muslim friends”, and that he was “sick to death” of being asked about the footage

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/28/reform-investigate-claim-racist-activist-actor-channel-four/

Asking the PB massive, am I racist because I've never had a Muslim girlfriend?
Have you had a Muslim boyfriend? If so, you're in the clear and you can apply for an official Farooq-brand certificate* of non-racism.

*only available on white paper

Never had a Muslim boyfriend either.

Pulpstar · June 28

TheScreamingEagles said:
I am glad the pubs are closing if this is the sort of talk that goes on in them.

A Reform UK volunteer who was filmed by Channel 4 News calling Rishi Sunak a “f------ p---” has apologised, saying he was “goaded on”.

Andrew Parker said he made the comments, recorded by undercover reporters, “in the heat of the moment”.

Mr Parker also confirmed claims that he was a part-time actor but said he got involved with Reform UK after contacting the party himself and volunteering to do leafleting because he believes in its message.

He said he had not told the party that he was an actor.

Mr Parker said: “Of course I regret what I said. Christ, I’m not a racist. I’ve had Muslim girlfriends. It was typical chaps-down-the-pub talk.”

Asked whether he would like to apologise, he said: “Of course I’m sorry. They were off-the-cuff things that everyone says.”

He said he had “a lot of Pakistani friends” and “Muslim friends”, and that he was “sick to death” of being asked about the footage

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/28/reform-investigate-claim-racist-activist-actor-channel-four/

Asking the PB massive, am I racist because I've never had a Muslim girlfriend?

The open question is was he acting, or were those his views. He's only got a week to wait if he was actually acting and then comes out with gushing interviews about how "I set Reform up, it was a service to the nation". He would likely get a lot of work off the back of that from people who hate Farage.
There's no way on God's green earth he'll admit he was acting prior to the big bong at 10 PM next Thursday.

TheScreamingEagles · June 28

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
I am glad the pubs are closing if this is the sort of talk that goes on in them.

A Reform UK volunteer who was filmed by Channel 4 News calling Rishi Sunak a “f------ p---” has apologised, saying he was “goaded on”.

Andrew Parker said he made the comments, recorded by undercover reporters, “in the heat of the moment”.

Mr Parker also confirmed claims that he was a part-time actor but said he got involved with Reform UK after contacting the party himself and volunteering to do leafleting because he believes in its message.

He said he had not told the party that he was an actor.

Mr Parker said: “Of course I regret what I said. Christ, I’m not a racist. I’ve had Muslim girlfriends. It was typical chaps-down-the-pub talk.”

Asked whether he would like to apologise, he said: “Of course I’m sorry. They were off-the-cuff things that everyone says.”

He said he had “a lot of Pakistani friends” and “Muslim friends”, and that he was “sick to death” of being asked about the footage

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/28/reform-investigate-claim-racist-activist-actor-channel-four/

Asking the PB massive, am I racist because I've never had a Muslim girlfriend?
The open question is was he acting, or were those his views. He's only got a week to wait if he was actually acting and then comes out with gushing interviews about how "I set reform up, it was a service to the nation". He would likely get a lot of work off the back of that from people who hate Farage.
There's no way on God's green earth he'll admit he was acting prior to the big bong at 10 PM next Thursday.

So apparently there's source material showing him campaigning for UKIP/Farage as far back as 2014, that's a decade as a sleeper agent.

Andy_JS · June 28

Only just noticed that in 2019 the Brexit Party got 5.4% in Wales compared to 2.0% in England. Makes one wonder whether RefUK might get a higher share in Wales than England this time around.

Leon · June 28

The Dems are gonna do it aren’t they? They’re gonna slowly convince themselves Joe is basically ok and last night was a one-off

Mexicanpete · June 28

williamglenn said:

mwadams said:
FPT:

FrancisUrquhart said:
Pro_Rate....live it was far worse than the highlights. It wasn't a person gets one answer a bit mixed up.
I agree. If the clips packages are making it look "not too bad" for Biden, they are being very, very generous. It was painful to watch last night.

If the Democrats don't get Biden to step aside and maximize any positive publicity they can extract from an Open Convention, the world will be in a very bad place next year.
There's a risk that an open convention would turn into a repeat of 1968.

Thank you Lord Astor.

I can't work out how you can make the extrapolation that an open convention will turn into the chaos of 1968.

Although as a Trump fanboi you would say that wouldn't you? Bring on an open convention.

MisterBedfordshire · June 28

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
I am glad the pubs are closing if this is the sort of talk that goes on in them.

A Reform UK volunteer who was filmed by Channel 4 News calling Rishi Sunak a “f------ p---” has apologised, saying he was “goaded on”.

Andrew Parker said he made the comments, recorded by undercover reporters, “in the heat of the moment”.

Mr Parker also confirmed claims that he was a part-time actor but said he got involved with Reform UK after contacting the party himself and volunteering to do leafleting because he believes in its message.

He said he had not told the party that he was an actor.

Mr Parker said: “Of course I regret what I said. Christ, I’m not a racist. I’ve had Muslim girlfriends. It was typical chaps-down-the-pub talk.”

Asked whether he would like to apologise, he said: “Of course I’m sorry. They were off-the-cuff things that everyone says.”

He said he had “a lot of Pakistani friends” and “Muslim friends”, and that he was “sick to death” of being asked about the footage

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/28/reform-investigate-claim-racist-activist-actor-channel-four/

Asking the PB massive, am I racist because I've never had a Muslim girlfriend?
The open question is was he acting, or were those his views. He's only got a week to wait if he was actually acting and then comes out with gushing interviews about how "I set Reform up, it was a service to the nation". He would likely get a lot of work off the back of that from people who hate Farage.
There's no way on God's green earth he'll admit he was acting prior to the big bong at 10 PM next Thursday.

I don't think it makes any difference. He will be treated as a setup. Even if the guy is a genuine volunteer, doing a sting when the guy you sting is card carrying equity member, using the "in character" voice he advertises on his website as an Alf Garnetesque "Rough Voice", (as opposed to his rather more well spoken normal voice), is a backfiring fail of monumental proportions.

Arguing over it is as futile as arguing that insider betting on elections is ethical and pure because it is not actually illegal.

Stocky · June 28

Betting Post:

Check out the odds on Exmouth and Exeter East

BF (exc) has it very close between three:

2.06 Con
2.1 LDem
2.64 Lab
6.4 Ref

Meanwhile, the best prices with trad bookies are:

15/8 Con
13/8 LDem
10 Lab
10 Ref

I know the area a bit and I'd say Ref will take a chunk off Con. I'd be tempted by 13/8 LDem (I have already backed them at 7s) but what about the 10s available for Lab to take the seat??

@SouthamObserver @Quincel @MarqueeMark

bondegezou · June 28

Thanks for the article. You're predicting 2-3 APNI MPs, which would be a significant (and welcome) breakthrough for the party.

Pulpstar · June 28

Stocky said:
Betting Post:

Check out the odds on Exmouth and Exeter East

BF (exc) has it very close between three:

2.06 Con
2.1 LDem
2.64 Lab
6.4 Ref

Meanwhile, the best prices with trad bookies are:

15/8 Con
13/8 LDem
10 Lab
10 Ref

I know the area a bit and I'd say Ref will take a chunk off Con. I'd be tempted by 13/8 LDem (I have already backed them at 7s) but what about the 10s available for Lab to take the seat??

@SouthamObserver @Quincel @MarqueeMark

Of you believe the models it's broadly speaking a Tory hold.

Exmouth and Exeter East Con 15.8 8809
Lib 0.7
Con 5%
Con 3.2%
Con 8%
Con 0.26%
Con 2.05%
Conservative 8.40%
Reform 4.38
CON 0.1

I do however fwiw have a vision of the entire southwest, hopped up on cider heading out and voting Lib Dem en masse on the day with the amount of yellow diamonds down there.

MisterBedfordshire · June 28

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
I am glad the pubs are closing if this is the sort of talk that goes on in them.

A Reform UK volunteer who was filmed by Channel 4 News calling Rishi Sunak a “f------ p---” has apologised, saying he was “goaded on”.

Andrew Parker said he made the comments, recorded by undercover reporters, “in the heat of the moment”.

Mr Parker also confirmed claims that he was a part-time actor but said he got involved with Reform UK after contacting the party himself and volunteering to do leafleting because he believes in its message.

He said he had not told the party that he was an actor.

Mr Parker said: “Of course I regret what I said. Christ, I’m not a racist. I’ve had Muslim girlfriends. It was typical chaps-down-the-pub talk.”

Asked whether he would like to apologise, he said: “Of course I’m sorry. They were off-the-cuff things that everyone says.”

He said he had “a lot of Pakistani friends” and “Muslim friends”, and that he was “sick to death” of being asked about the footage

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/28/reform-investigate-claim-racist-activist-actor-channel-four/

Asking the PB massive, am I racist because I've never had a Muslim girlfriend?
The open question is was he acting, or were those his views. He's only got a week to wait if he was actually acting and then comes out with gushing interviews about how "I set reform up, it was a service to the nation". He would likely get a lot of work off the back of that from people who hate Farage.
There's no way on God's green earth he'll admit he was acting prior to the big bong at 10 PM next Thursday.
So apparently there's source material showing him campaigning for UKIP/Farage as far back as 2014, that's a decade as a sleeper agent.

If you are going to do a sting, best not to make the subject an apparent card carrying equity holder who specialises in Alf Garnetesque "rough voice" characters and campaigns in character.

Stocky · June 28

Great header - I've had a nibble.

Generally, I hate the trad bookies but I must admit Bet365 have been good sports on this constituency betting.

williamglenn · June 28

Mexicanpete said:

williamglenn said:

mwadams said:
FPT:

FrancisUrquhart said:
Pro_Rate....live it was far worse than the highlights. It wasn't a person gets one answer a bit mixed up.
I agree. If the clips packages are making it look "not too bad" for Biden, they are being very, very generous. It was painful to watch last night.

If the Democrats don't get Biden to step aside and maximize any positive publicity they can extract from an Open Convention, the world will be in a very bad place next year.
There's a risk that an open convention would turn into a repeat of 1968.
Thank you Lord Astor.

I can't work out how you can make the extrapolation that an open convention will turn into the chaos of 1968.

Although as a Trump fanboi you would say that wouldn't you? Bring on an open convention.

It will be a nexus for anti-Israel protests.

Pulpstar · June 28

MisterBedfordshire said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
I am glad the pubs are closing if this is the sort of talk that goes on in them.

A Reform UK volunteer who was filmed by Channel 4 News calling Rishi Sunak a “f------ p---” has apologised, saying he was “goaded on”.

Andrew Parker said he made the comments, recorded by undercover reporters, “in the heat of the moment”.

Mr Parker also confirmed claims that he was a part-time actor but said he got involved with Reform UK after contacting the party himself and volunteering to do leafleting because he believes in its message.

He said he had not told the party that he was an actor.

Mr Parker said: “Of course I regret what I said. Christ, I’m not a racist. I’ve had Muslim girlfriends. It was typical chaps-down-the-pub talk.”

Asked whether he would like to apologise, he said: “Of course I’m sorry. They were off-the-cuff things that everyone says.”

He said he had “a lot of Pakistani friends” and “Muslim friends”, and that he was “sick to death” of being asked about the footage

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/28/reform-investigate-claim-racist-activist-actor-channel-four/

Asking the PB massive, am I racist because I've never had a Muslim girlfriend?
The open question is was he acting, or were those his views. He's only got a week to wait if he was actually acting and then comes out with gushing interviews about how "I set reform up, it was a service to the nation". He would likely get a lot of work off the back of that from people who hate Farage.
There's no way on God's green earth he'll admit he was acting prior to the big bong at 10 PM next Thursday.
So apparently there's source material showing him campaigning for UKIP/Farage as far back as 2014, that's a decade as a sleeper agent.
If you are going to do a sting, best not to make the subject an apparent card carrying equity holder who specialises in Alf Garnetesque "rough voice" characters and campaigns in character.

Tbh his profession is a bit awkward for everyone.

TheScreamingEagles · June 28

MisterBedfordshire said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
I am glad the pubs are closing if this is the sort of talk that goes on in them.

A Reform UK volunteer who was filmed by Channel 4 News calling Rishi Sunak a “f------ p---” has apologised, saying he was “goaded on”.

Andrew Parker said he made the comments, recorded by undercover reporters, “in the heat of the moment”.

Mr Parker also confirmed claims that he was a part-time actor but said he got involved with Reform UK after contacting the party himself and volunteering to do leafleting because he believes in its message.

He said he had not told the party that he was an actor.

Mr Parker said: “Of course I regret what I said. Christ, I’m not a racist. I’ve had Muslim girlfriends. It was typical chaps-down-the-pub talk.”

Asked whether he would like to apologise, he said: “Of course I’m sorry. They were off-the-cuff things that everyone says.”

He said he had “a lot of Pakistani friends” and “Muslim friends”, and that he was “sick to death” of being asked about the footage

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/28/reform-investigate-claim-racist-activist-actor-channel-four/

Asking the PB massive, am I racist because I've never had a Muslim girlfriend?
The open question is was he acting, or were those his views. He's only got a week to wait if he was actually acting and then comes out with gushing interviews about how "I set reform up, it was a service to the nation". He would likely get a lot of work off the back of that from people who hate Farage.
There's no way on God's green earth he'll admit he was acting prior to the big bong at 10 PM next Thursday.
So apparently there's source material showing him campaigning for UKIP/Farage as far back as 2014, that's a decade as a sleeper agent.
If you are going to do a sting, best not to make the subject an apparent card carrying equity holder who specialises in Alf Garnetesque "rough voice" characters and campaigns in character.

So ~~Alex Jones~~ Mr Bedfordshire do you think all the other massive publicly exposed racists and bigots are crisis actors?

MisterBedfordshire · June 28

Saw my first Tory posters today. Three of them. All on the railings of the town Conservative Club balcony.

They also had a union flag which for some reason was flying at half mast.

bondegezou · June 28

MisterBedfordshire said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
I am glad the pubs are closing if this is the sort of talk that goes on in them.

A Reform UK volunteer who was filmed by Channel 4 News calling Rishi Sunak a “f------ p---” has apologised, saying he was “goaded on”.

Andrew Parker said he made the comments, recorded by undercover reporters, “in the heat of the moment”.

Mr Parker also confirmed claims that he was a part-time actor but said he got involved with Reform UK after contacting the party himself and volunteering to do leafleting because he believes in its message.

He said he had not told the party that he was an actor.

Mr Parker said: “Of course I regret what I said. Christ, I’m not a racist. I’ve had Muslim girlfriends. It was typical chaps-down-the-pub talk.”

Asked whether he would like to apologise, he said: “Of course I’m sorry. They were off-the-cuff things that everyone says.”

He said he had “a lot of Pakistani friends” and “Muslim friends”, and that he was “sick to death” of being asked about the footage

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/28/reform-investigate-claim-racist-activist-actor-channel-four/

Asking the PB massive, am I racist because I've never had a Muslim girlfriend?
The open question is was he acting, or were those his views. He's only got a week to wait if he was actually acting and then comes out with gushing interviews about how "I set reform up, it was a service to the nation". He would likely get a lot of work off the back of that from people who hate Farage.
There's no way on God's green earth he'll admit he was acting prior to the big bong at 10 PM next Thursday.
So apparently there's source material showing him campaigning for UKIP/Farage as far back as 2014, that's a decade as a sleeper agent.
If you are going to do a sting, best not to make the subject an apparent card carrying equity holder who specialises in Alf Garnetesque "rough voice" characters and campaigns in character.

The initial report had 3 different Reform UK campaigners saying problematic things. Why are we forgetting the other two?

algarkirk · June 28

TheScreamingEagles said:
I am glad the pubs are closing if this is the sort of talk that goes on in them.

A Reform UK volunteer who was filmed by Channel 4 News calling Rishi Sunak a “f------ p---” has apologised, saying he was “goaded on”.

Andrew Parker said he made the comments, recorded by undercover reporters, “in the heat of the moment”.

Mr Parker also confirmed claims that he was a part-time actor but said he got involved with Reform UK after contacting the party himself and volunteering to do leafleting because he believes in its message.

He said he had not told the party that he was an actor.

Mr Parker said: “Of course I regret what I said. Christ, I’m not a racist. I’ve had Muslim girlfriends. It was typical chaps-down-the-pub talk.”

Asked whether he would like to apologise, he said: “Of course I’m sorry. They were off-the-cuff things that everyone says.”

He said he had “a lot of Pakistani friends” and “Muslim friends”, and that he was “sick to death” of being asked about the footage

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/28/reform-investigate-claim-racist-activist-actor-channel-four/

Asking the PB massive, am I racist because I've never had a Muslim girlfriend?

Actually not everyone does.

maxh · June 28

MisterBedfordshire said:
Saw my first Tory posters today. Three of them. All on the railings of the town Conservative Club balcony.

They also had a union flag which for some reason was flying at half mast.

I can think of some reasons...

viewcode · June 28

I have been waiting for this, @TheGreenMachine , thank you. Will there be a Part 3?

maxh · June 28

TheScreamingEagles said:
I am glad the pubs are closing if this is the sort of talk that goes on in them.

A Reform UK volunteer who was filmed by Channel 4 News calling Rishi Sunak a “f------ p---” has apologised, saying he was “goaded on”.

Andrew Parker said he made the comments, recorded by undercover reporters, “in the heat of the moment”.

Mr Parker also confirmed claims that he was a part-time actor but said he got involved with Reform UK after contacting the party himself and volunteering to do leafleting because he believes in its message.

He said he had not told the party that he was an actor.

Mr Parker said: “Of course I regret what I said. Christ, I’m not a racist. I’ve had Muslim girlfriends. It was typical chaps-down-the-pub talk.”

Asked whether he would like to apologise, he said: “Of course I’m sorry. They were off-the-cuff things that everyone says.”

He said he had “a lot of Pakistani friends” and “Muslim friends”, and that he was “sick to death” of being asked about the footage

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/28/reform-investigate-claim-racist-activist-actor-channel-four/

Asking the PB massive, am I racist because I've never had a Muslim girlfriend?

Chaps-down-the-pub talk = locker room banter

HYUFD · June 28

Another good NI article.

Don't agree with all the predictions though, I think the UUP could win Fermanagh and S Tyrone this time with no Unionist rivals and given they were less than 50 votes behind SF last time.

I think the Alliance will hold North Down. I also think the DUP will hold Lagan Valley where the combined Unionist vote was well over 50% on first preferences in the 2022 Stormont election

MisterBedfordshire · June 28

On topic. Thanks for the interesting article.

IanB2 · June 28

Andy_JS said:
Only just noticed that in 2019 the Brexit Party got 5.4% in Wales compared to 2.0% in England. Makes one wonder whether RefUK might get a higher share in Wales than England this time around.

It’s because Wales has an older demographic

eek · June 28

bondegezou said:

MisterBedfordshire said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
I am glad the pubs are closing if this is the sort of talk that goes on in them.

A Reform UK volunteer who was filmed by Channel 4 News calling Rishi Sunak a “f------ p---” has apologised, saying he was “goaded on”.

Andrew Parker said he made the comments, recorded by undercover reporters, “in the heat of the moment”.

Mr Parker also confirmed claims that he was a part-time actor but said he got involved with Reform UK after contacting the party himself and volunteering to do leafleting because he believes in its message.

He said he had not told the party that he was an actor.

Mr Parker said: “Of course I regret what I said. Christ, I’m not a racist. I’ve had Muslim girlfriends. It was typical chaps-down-the-pub talk.”

Asked whether he would like to apologise, he said: “Of course I’m sorry. They were off-the-cuff things that everyone says.”

He said he had “a lot of Pakistani friends” and “Muslim friends”, and that he was “sick to death” of being asked about the footage

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/28/reform-investigate-claim-racist-activist-actor-channel-four/

Asking the PB massive, am I racist because I've never had a Muslim girlfriend?
The open question is was he acting, or were those his views. He's only got a week to wait if he was actually acting and then comes out with gushing interviews about how "I set reform up, it was a service to the nation". He would likely get a lot of work off the back of that from people who hate Farage.
There's no way on God's green earth he'll admit he was acting prior to the big bong at 10 PM next Thursday.
So apparently there's source material showing him campaigning for UKIP/Farage as far back as 2014, that's a decade as a sleeper agent.
If you are going to do a sting, best not to make the subject an apparent card carrying equity holder who specialises in Alf Garnetesque "rough voice" characters and campaigns in character.
The initial report had 3 different Reform UK campaigners saying problematic things. Why are we forgetting the other two?

Simple attempt to change the narrative and hope people forget about the other 2

Stuartinromford · June 28

Sad News.

Jack Petchey is someone who did well and then did go on to do a lot of good.

(And modelling that to the younger generation. The winners of his awards didn't get the cash for themselves, but they got to nominate a project that Petchey money would then fund.)

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cgerjvy284yo

HYUFD · June 28

Pulpstar said:
Fermanagh and South Tyrone must be the most invariant marginal in the whole of the UK.

Also one of the most beautiful, wonderful rural scenery and historic Enniskillen and its ancient castle

sbjme19 · June 28

Is the homophobe complaining about the police car an actor as well?

rkrkrk · June 28

For those panicking about Biden (and I regret to say I'm joining that camp)... I think the next President market offers some reasonable odds.

For instance if you think Biden may choose to stand down (or be forced to)... you can get 26/1 on Kamala Harris winning. Or 600/1 on Buttigieg.

moonshine · June 28

Delicious meme doing the rounds, a crazed Jill from last night, freeze frame mouth open mid rant in front of Joe. Labelled Hawk Tuah.

Anyway as for the UK, I feel like I see reds under the bed these days. That Reform “actor” story doesn’t make me think it’s an establishment stitch up gone wrong at all. But instead a cunning plan by You Know Who, hiring an obvious stooge to paint Farage as racist, waiting for the story to get traction, and then leaking that it was a setup. Wars aren’t only fought with bullets and bombs…

williamglenn · June 28

Gavin Newsom must fancy his chances:

https://x.com/neriakraus/status/1806529228835303448

HYUFD · June 28

williamglenn said:
Gavin Newsom must fancy his chances:

https://x.com/neriakraus/status/1806529228835303448

So did Hillary against Trump, the voters thought otherwise

HYUFD · June 28

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
I am glad the pubs are closing if this is the sort of talk that goes on in them.

A Reform UK volunteer who was filmed by Channel 4 News calling Rishi Sunak a “f------ p---” has apologised, saying he was “goaded on”.

Andrew Parker said he made the comments, recorded by undercover reporters, “in the heat of the moment”.

Mr Parker also confirmed claims that he was a part-time actor but said he got involved with Reform UK after contacting the party himself and volunteering to do leafleting because he believes in its message.

He said he had not told the party that he was an actor.

Mr Parker said: “Of course I regret what I said. Christ, I’m not a racist. I’ve had Muslim girlfriends. It was typical chaps-down-the-pub talk.”

Asked whether he would like to apologise, he said: “Of course I’m sorry. They were off-the-cuff things that everyone says.”

He said he had “a lot of Pakistani friends” and “Muslim friends”, and that he was “sick to death” of being asked about the footage

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/28/reform-investigate-claim-racist-activist-actor-channel-four/

Asking the PB massive, am I racist because I've never had a Muslim girlfriend?
The open question is was he acting, or were those his views. He's only got a week to wait if he was actually acting and then comes out with gushing interviews about how "I set reform up, it was a service to the nation". He would likely get a lot of work off the back of that from people who hate Farage.
There's no way on God's green earth he'll admit he was acting prior to the big bong at 10 PM next Thursday.
So apparently there's source material showing him campaigning for UKIP/Farage as far back as 2014, that's a decade as a sleeper agent.

A lot of ReformUK tweets now going around saying Trump US, Le Pen France then Farage UK

CarlottaVance · June 28

Up the sherry drinkers!

NEW: A poll has been released showing the UK’s voting intention by alcoholic drink preference

https://x.com/politlcsuk/status/1806672615769075805?s=46&t=eiaG-Nju8t7zgfE3oCmAHA

LostPassword · June 28

Aggregate totals for the parties across the two prediction articles.
SF 6
DUP 3
APNI 2
SDLP 2
UUP 1
IND 1
Aren't there three seats missing?

bondegezou · June 28

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:
Gavin Newsom must fancy his chances:

https://x.com/neriakraus/status/1806529228835303448
So did Hillary against Trump, the voters thought otherwise

Well, the voters in certain states. She got more votes than Trump.

HYUFD · June 28

bondegezou said:

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:
Gavin Newsom must fancy his chances:

https://x.com/neriakraus/status/1806529228835303448
So did Hillary against Trump, the voters thought otherwise
Well, the voters in certain states. She got more votes than Trump.

But the lowest Democratic share of the Electoral College since Dukakis in 1988.

As for Newsom he reminds me of McGovern v Trump's Nixon 1972 on first impressions and we all know who won that one!

IanB2 · June 28

CarlottaVance said:
Up the sherry drinkers!

NEW: A poll has been released showing the UK’s voting intention by alcoholic drink preference

https://x.com/politlcsuk/status/1806672615769075805?s=46&t=eiaG-Nju8t7zgfE3oCmAHA

The country is never going to be taken over by shandy and cider drinkers. So Leon is wrong. Again.

Pulpstar · June 28

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
I am glad the pubs are closing if this is the sort of talk that goes on in them.

A Reform UK volunteer who was filmed by Channel 4 News calling Rishi Sunak a “f------ p---” has apologised, saying he was “goaded on”.

Andrew Parker said he made the comments, recorded by undercover reporters, “in the heat of the moment”.

Mr Parker also confirmed claims that he was a part-time actor but said he got involved with Reform UK after contacting the party himself and volunteering to do leafleting because he believes in its message.

He said he had not told the party that he was an actor.

Mr Parker said: “Of course I regret what I said. Christ, I’m not a racist. I’ve had Muslim girlfriends. It was typical chaps-down-the-pub talk.”

Asked whether he would like to apologise, he said: “Of course I’m sorry. They were off-the-cuff things that everyone says.”

He said he had “a lot of Pakistani friends” and “Muslim friends”, and that he was “sick to death” of being asked about the footage

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/28/reform-investigate-claim-racist-activist-actor-channel-four/

Asking the PB massive, am I racist because I've never had a Muslim girlfriend?
The open question is was he acting, or were those his views. He's only got a week to wait if he was actually acting and then comes out with gushing interviews about how "I set reform up, it was a service to the nation". He would likely get a lot of work off the back of that from people who hate Farage.
There's no way on God's green earth he'll admit he was acting prior to the big bong at 10 PM next Thursday.
So apparently there's source material showing him campaigning for UKIP/Farage as far back as 2014, that's a decade as a sleeper agent.
A lot of ReformUK tweets now going around saying Trump US, Le Pen France then Farage UK

Путин Кремль

Stocky · June 28

rkrkrk said:
For those panicking about Biden (and I regret to say I'm joining that camp)... I think the next President market offers some reasonable odds.

For instance if you think Biden may choose to stand down (or be forced to)... you can get 26/1 on Kamala Harris winning. Or 600/1 on Buttigieg.

Buttigieg: a bit at 1000 on Smarkets.

rcs1000 · June 28

williamglenn said:

mwadams said:
FPT:

FrancisUrquhart said:
Pro_Rate....live it was far worse than the highlights. It wasn't a person gets one answer a bit mixed up.
I agree. If the clips packages are making it look "not too bad" for Biden, they are being very, very generous. It was painful to watch last night.

If the Democrats don't get Biden to step aside and maximize any positive publicity they can extract from an Open Convention, the world will be in a very bad place next year.
There's a risk that an open convention would turn into a repeat of 1968.

Didn't the Democrats come back strongly after the convention in 1968? Nixon had been massively ahead, and ended up with a pretty narrow victory (43.4 v 42.7)?

Indeed, if it hadn't been for Wallace making Humphrey's vote very inefficient in the South - both by taking some states and handing others to Nixon - then he might have won.

Malmesbury · June 28

moonshine said:
Delicious meme doing the rounds, a crazed Jill from last night, freeze frame mouth open mid rant in front of Joe. Labelled Hawk Tuah.

Anyway as for the UK, I feel like I see reds under the bed these days. That Reform “actor” story doesn’t make me think it’s an establishment stitch up gone wrong at all. But instead a cunning plan by You Know Who, hiring an obvious stooge to paint Farage as racist, waiting for the story to get traction, and then leaking that it was a setup. Wars aren’t only fought with bullets and bombs…

You Know Who? Voldemort? Are you suggesting JKR is funding black ops against Reform?

IanB2 · June 28

Stocky said:

rkrkrk said:
For those panicking about Biden (and I regret to say I'm joining that camp)... I think the next President market offers some reasonable odds.

For instance if you think Biden may choose to stand down (or be forced to)... you can get 26/1 on Kamala Harris winning. Or 600/1 on Buttigieg.
Buttigieg: a bit at 1000 on Smarkets.

If Buttijig gets Pres I think I could afford a bottle of decent Sasiccaia for Xmas

rcs1000 · June 28

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
I am glad the pubs are closing if this is the sort of talk that goes on in them.

A Reform UK volunteer who was filmed by Channel 4 News calling Rishi Sunak a “f------ p---” has apologised, saying he was “goaded on”.

Andrew Parker said he made the comments, recorded by undercover reporters, “in the heat of the moment”.

Mr Parker also confirmed claims that he was a part-time actor but said he got involved with Reform UK after contacting the party himself and volunteering to do leafleting because he believes in its message.

He said he had not told the party that he was an actor.

Mr Parker said: “Of course I regret what I said. Christ, I’m not a racist. I’ve had Muslim girlfriends. It was typical chaps-down-the-pub talk.”

Asked whether he would like to apologise, he said: “Of course I’m sorry. They were off-the-cuff things that everyone says.”

He said he had “a lot of Pakistani friends” and “Muslim friends”, and that he was “sick to death” of being asked about the footage

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/28/reform-investigate-claim-racist-activist-actor-channel-four/

Asking the PB massive, am I racist because I've never had a Muslim girlfriend?
The open question is was he acting, or were those his views. He's only got a week to wait if he was actually acting and then comes out with gushing interviews about how "I set reform up, it was a service to the nation". He would likely get a lot of work off the back of that from people who hate Farage.
There's no way on God's green earth he'll admit he was acting prior to the big bong at 10 PM next Thursday.
So apparently there's source material showing him campaigning for UKIP/Farage as far back as 2014, that's a decade as a sleeper agent.
A lot of ReformUK tweets now going around saying Trump US, Le Pen France then Farage UK

Wow! Twitter you say!

moonshine · June 28

Malmesbury said:

moonshine said:
Delicious meme doing the rounds, a crazed Jill from last night, freeze frame mouth open mid rant in front of Joe. Labelled Hawk Tuah.

Anyway as for the UK, I feel like I see reds under the bed these days. That Reform “actor” story doesn’t make me think it’s an establishment stitch up gone wrong at all. But instead a cunning plan by You Know Who, hiring an obvious stooge to paint Farage as racist, waiting for the story to get traction, and then leaking that it was a setup. Wars aren’t only fought with bullets and bombs…
You Know Who? Voldemort? Are you suggesting JKR is funding black ops against Reform?

The other embodiment of evil beginning V

Daveyboy1961 · June 28

maxh said:

MisterBedfordshire said:
Saw my first Tory posters today. Three of them. All on the railings of the town Conservative Club balcony.

They also had a union flag which for some reason was flying at half mast.
I can think of some reasons...

They should fly it upsidedown...

Roger · June 28

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
I am glad the pubs are closing if this is the sort of talk that goes on in them.

A Reform UK volunteer who was filmed by Channel 4 News calling Rishi Sunak a “f------ p---” has apologised, saying he was “goaded on”.

Andrew Parker said he made the comments, recorded by undercover reporters, “in the heat of the moment”.

Mr Parker also confirmed claims that he was a part-time actor but said he got involved with Reform UK after contacting the party himself and volunteering to do leafleting because he believes in its message.

He said he had not told the party that he was an actor.

Mr Parker said: “Of course I regret what I said. Christ, I’m not a racist. I’ve had Muslim girlfriends. It was typical chaps-down-the-pub talk.”

Asked whether he would like to apologise, he said: “Of course I’m sorry. They were off-the-cuff things that everyone says.”

He said he had “a lot of Pakistani friends” and “Muslim friends”, and that he was “sick to death” of being asked about the footage

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/28/reform-investigate-claim-racist-activist-actor-channel-four/

Asking the PB massive, am I racist because I've never had a Muslim girlfriend?
The open question is was he acting, or were those his views. He's only got a week to wait if he was actually acting and then comes out with gushing interviews about how "I set reform up, it was a service to the nation". He would likely get a lot of work off the back of that from people who hate Farage.
There's no way on God's green earth he'll admit he was acting prior to the big bong at 10 PM next Thursday.
So apparently there's source material showing him campaigning for UKIP/Farage as far back as 2014, that's a decade as a sleeper agent.
A lot of ReformUK tweets now going around saying Trump US, Le Pen France then Farage UK

Well a possible one-out-of-three isn't bad I suppose. And even that's dependent on Biden not pulling out

MattW · June 28

bondegezou said:

MisterBedfordshire said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
I am glad the pubs are closing if this is the sort of talk that goes on in them.

A Reform UK volunteer who was filmed by Channel 4 News calling Rishi Sunak a “f------ p---” has apologised, saying he was “goaded on”.

Andrew Parker said he made the comments, recorded by undercover reporters, “in the heat of the moment”.

Mr Parker also confirmed claims that he was a part-time actor but said he got involved with Reform UK after contacting the party himself and volunteering to do leafleting because he believes in its message.

He said he had not told the party that he was an actor.

Mr Parker said: “Of course I regret what I said. Christ, I’m not a racist. I’ve had Muslim girlfriends. It was typical chaps-down-the-pub talk.”

Asked whether he would like to apologise, he said: “Of course I’m sorry. They were off-the-cuff things that everyone says.”

He said he had “a lot of Pakistani friends” and “Muslim friends”, and that he was “sick to death” of being asked about the footage

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/28/reform-investigate-claim-racist-activist-actor-channel-four/

Asking the PB massive, am I racist because I've never had a Muslim girlfriend?
The open question is was he acting, or were those his views. He's only got a week to wait if he was actually acting and then comes out with gushing interviews about how "I set reform up, it was a service to the nation". He would likely get a lot of work off the back of that from people who hate Farage.
There's no way on God's green earth he'll admit he was acting prior to the big bong at 10 PM next Thursday.
So apparently there's source material showing him campaigning for UKIP/Farage as far back as 2014, that's a decade as a sleeper agent.
If you are going to do a sting, best not to make the subject an apparent card carrying equity holder who specialises in Alf Garnetesque "rough voice" characters and campaigns in character.
The initial report had 3 different Reform UK campaigners saying problematic things. Why are we forgetting the other two?

Correct. This is squirrel throwing from Farage. I think it's more likely the actor a real activist who is now spinning for Farage to discredit C4.

The ones Farage should be (probably is, given that he isn't a doofus) worried about are those in the pub conversation:

George Jones, Farage's Events Organiser
Dan Jukes, Reform National Press Officer
Roger Gravit, Reform London Area Manager
Rob Bates, Senior Reform Campaigner

Talking about:

Rainbow flags on police cars as "degenerate".
Inclusive campaigners and Islamist campaigners compared to Stalin and Hitler wrt to 'us' being Poland.
Needing "straight" police officers.
"Paramilitary" police.
Bring back the noose.

These guys are the core of Farage's team.

https://youtu.be/JmkMpYbOoO0?t=374

IanB2 · June 28

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
I am glad the pubs are closing if this is the sort of talk that goes on in them.

A Reform UK volunteer who was filmed by Channel 4 News calling Rishi Sunak a “f------ p---” has apologised, saying he was “goaded on”.

Andrew Parker said he made the comments, recorded by undercover reporters, “in the heat of the moment”.

Mr Parker also confirmed claims that he was a part-time actor but said he got involved with Reform UK after contacting the party himself and volunteering to do leafleting because he believes in its message.

He said he had not told the party that he was an actor.

Mr Parker said: “Of course I regret what I said. Christ, I’m not a racist. I’ve had Muslim girlfriends. It was typical chaps-down-the-pub talk.”

Asked whether he would like to apologise, he said: “Of course I’m sorry. They were off-the-cuff things that everyone says.”

He said he had “a lot of Pakistani friends” and “Muslim friends”, and that he was “sick to death” of being asked about the footage

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/28/reform-investigate-claim-racist-activist-actor-channel-four/

Asking the PB massive, am I racist because I've never had a Muslim girlfriend?
The open question is was he acting, or were those his views. He's only got a week to wait if he was actually acting and then comes out with gushing interviews about how "I set reform up, it was a service to the nation". He would likely get a lot of work off the back of that from people who hate Farage.
There's no way on God's green earth he'll admit he was acting prior to the big bong at 10 PM next Thursday.
So apparently there's source material showing him campaigning for UKIP/Farage as far back as 2014, that's a decade as a sleeper agent.
A lot of ReformUK tweets now going around saying Trump US, Le Pen France then Farage UK

I trust that you recommended that they all invest in a 2024 calendar.

Farooq · June 28

CarlottaVance said:
Up the sherry drinkers!

NEW: A poll has been released showing the UK’s voting intention by alcoholic drink preference

https://x.com/politlcsuk/status/1806672615769075805?s=46&t=eiaG-Nju8t7zgfE3oCmAHA

I'm a white wine drinker. I'm also known to be a filthy centrist. Judging from that graph, I've found my people.

Farooq · June 28

LostPassword said:
Aggregate totals for the parties across the two prediction articles.
SF 6
DUP 3
APNI 2
SDLP 2
UUP 1
IND 1
Aren't there three seats missing?

In the prediction competition I'm on SF 7 DUP 5.
PSA: I know feck all.

MisterBedfordshire · June 28

MattW said:

bondegezou said:

MisterBedfordshire said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
I am glad the pubs are closing if this is the sort of talk that goes on in them.

A Reform UK volunteer who was filmed by Channel 4 News calling Rishi Sunak a “f------ p---” has apologised, saying he was “goaded on”.

Andrew Parker said he made the comments, recorded by undercover reporters, “in the heat of the moment”.

Mr Parker also confirmed claims that he was a part-time actor but said he got involved with Reform UK after contacting the party himself and volunteering to do leafleting because he believes in its message.

He said he had not told the party that he was an actor.

Mr Parker said: “Of course I regret what I said. Christ, I’m not a racist. I’ve had Muslim girlfriends. It was typical chaps-down-the-pub talk.”

Asked whether he would like to apologise, he said: “Of course I’m sorry. They were off-the-cuff things that everyone says.”

He said he had “a lot of Pakistani friends” and “Muslim friends”, and that he was “sick to death” of being asked about the footage

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/28/reform-investigate-claim-racist-activist-actor-channel-four/

Asking the PB massive, am I racist because I've never had a Muslim girlfriend?
The open question is was he acting, or were those his views. He's only got a week to wait if he was actually acting and then comes out with gushing interviews about how "I set reform up, it was a service to the nation". He would likely get a lot of work off the back of that from people who hate Farage.
There's no way on God's green earth he'll admit he was acting prior to the big bong at 10 PM next Thursday.
So apparently there's source material showing him campaigning for UKIP/Farage as far back as 2014, that's a decade as a sleeper agent.
If you are going to do a sting, best not to make the subject an apparent card carrying equity holder who specialises in Alf Garnetesque "rough voice" characters and campaigns in character.
The initial report had 3 different Reform UK campaigners saying problematic things. Why are we forgetting the other two?
Correct. This is squirrel throwing from Farage. I think it's more likely the actor a real activist who is now spinning for Farage to discredit C4.

The ones Farage should be (probably is, given that he isn't a doofus) worried about are those in the pub conversation:

George Jones, Farage's Events Organiser
Dan Jukes, Reform National Press Officer
Roger Gravit, Reform London Area Manager
Rob Bates, Senior Reform Campaigner

Talking about:

Rainbow flags on police cars as "degenerate".
Inclusive campaigners and Islamist campaigners compared to Stalin and Hitler wrt to 'us' being Poland.
Needing "straight" police officers.
"Paramilitary" police.
Bring back the noose.

These guys are the core of Farage's team.

https://youtu.be/JmkMpYbOoO0?t=374

Sort of thing that if the Tories did it a couple of decades back would have been labelled "dog whistle politics"

LloydBanks · June 28

MisterBedfordshire said:
Saw my first Tory posters today. Three of them. All on the railings of the town Conservative Club balcony.

They also had a union flag which for some reason was flying at half mast.

The Conservative Club in South Croydon hadn't even bothered putting up a Philp board when I drove past the other day

Mexicanpete · June 28

..

MisterBedfordshire said:

They also had a union flag which for some reason was flying at half mast.

A drill for next Friday?

williamglenn · June 28

https://x.com/kaylatausche/status/1806675665845903645

NEW, as just reported on @CNN: Not only does @POTUS not plan to drop out, Biden remains committed to a second debate in September, an adviser tells me

Pulpstar · June 28

williamglenn said:
https://x.com/kaylatausche/status/1806675665845903645

NEW, as just reported on @CNN: Not only does @POTUS not plan to drop out, Biden remains committed to a second debate in September, an adviser tells me

Fantastic news for me and Casino 8)

tlg86 · June 28

williamglenn said:
https://x.com/kaylatausche/status/1806675665845903645

NEW, as just reported on @CNN: Not only does @POTUS not plan to drop out, Biden remains committed to a second debate in September, an adviser tells me

Hardly a surprise given he has almost certainly forgotten just how bad the first one was.

AbandonedHope · June 28

MisterBedfordshire said:
Saw my first Tory posters today. Three of them. All on the railings of the town Conservative Club balcony.

They also had a union flag which for some reason was flying at half mast.

Any suggestion that there is an election taking place in these parts (East Yorkshire) is few and far between. Saw three hoardings on a fence on the outskirts of Driffield for the Tory candidate; two orange diamonds in Leconfield ("Winning Here"); and a solitary 'blink and you'll miss it' sign for Graham Stuart in neighbouring Beverley.

Not aware of any candidates out on the doorstep or pressing the flesh on market days. Very little literature until last week, at which point the letterbox was crammed with glossy leaflets promoting various parties, a flyer for Farm Foods and a note from my window cleaner to say he was going on holiday and asking if he could skip a month.

MattW · June 28

MisterBedfordshire said:

MattW said:

bondegezou said:

MisterBedfordshire said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
I am glad the pubs are closing if this is the sort of talk that goes on in them.

A Reform UK volunteer who was filmed by Channel 4 News calling Rishi Sunak a “f------ p---” has apologised, saying he was “goaded on”.

Andrew Parker said he made the comments, recorded by undercover reporters, “in the heat of the moment”.

Mr Parker also confirmed claims that he was a part-time actor but said he got involved with Reform UK after contacting the party himself and volunteering to do leafleting because he believes in its message.

He said he had not told the party that he was an actor.

Mr Parker said: “Of course I regret what I said. Christ, I’m not a racist. I’ve had Muslim girlfriends. It was typical chaps-down-the-pub talk.”

Asked whether he would like to apologise, he said: “Of course I’m sorry. They were off-the-cuff things that everyone says.”

He said he had “a lot of Pakistani friends” and “Muslim friends”, and that he was “sick to death” of being asked about the footage

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/28/reform-investigate-claim-racist-activist-actor-channel-four/

Asking the PB massive, am I racist because I've never had a Muslim girlfriend?
The open question is was he acting, or were those his views. He's only got a week to wait if he was actually acting and then comes out with gushing interviews about how "I set reform up, it was a service to the nation". He would likely get a lot of work off the back of that from people who hate Farage.
There's no way on God's green earth he'll admit he was acting prior to the big bong at 10 PM next Thursday.
So apparently there's source material showing him campaigning for UKIP/Farage as far back as 2014, that's a decade as a sleeper agent.
If you are going to do a sting, best not to make the subject an apparent card carrying equity holder who specialises in Alf Garnetesque "rough voice" characters and campaigns in character.
The initial report had 3 different Reform UK campaigners saying problematic things. Why are we forgetting the other two?
Correct. This is squirrel throwing from Farage. I think it's more likely the actor a real activist who is now spinning for Farage to discredit C4.

The ones Farage should be (probably is, given that he isn't a doofus) worried about are those in the pub conversation:

George Jones, Farage's Events Organiser
Dan Jukes, Reform National Press Officer
Roger Gravit, Reform London Area Manager
Rob Bates, Senior Reform Campaigner

Talking about:

Rainbow flags on police cars as "degenerate".
Inclusive campaigners and Islamist campaigners compared to Stalin and Hitler wrt to 'us' being Poland.
Needing "straight" police officers.
"Paramilitary" police.
Bring back the noose.

These guys are the core of Farage's team.

https://youtu.be/JmkMpYbOoO0?t=374
Sort of thing that if the Tories did it a couple of decades back would have been labelled "dog whistle politics"

Yep. Times have moved on.

They also used (but it was the activist C4 were accompanying / covertly filming / planted) 'London is like being a foreigner in your own country',

William Hague, 2001, Leader's Conference Speech:

"Let me take you on a journey to a foreign land - to Britain after a second term of Tony Blair..."
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2001/mar/05/conservatives.election20011

Flatlander · June 28

AbandonedHope said:

MisterBedfordshire said:
Saw my first Tory posters today. Three of them. All on the railings of the town Conservative Club balcony.

They also had a union flag which for some reason was flying at half mast.
Any suggestion that there is an election taking place in these parts (East Yorkshire) is few and far between. Saw three hoardings on a fence on the outskirts of Driffield for the Tory candidate; two orange diamonds in Leconfield ("Winning Here"); and a solitary 'blink and you'll miss it' sign for Graham Stuart in neighbouring Beverley.

Not aware of any candidates out on the doorstep or pressing get flesh on market days. Very little literature until last week, at which point the letterbox was crammed with glossy leaflets promoting various parties, a flyer for Farm Foods and a note from my window cleaner to say he was going on holiday and asking if he could skip a month.

I did see quite a few Graham Stuart posters east of Beverley (in fields) and a single Green in Beverley itself.

I have seen no posters at all yet in any of the 3 constituencies in Flatland Central (Doncaster). Probably because they are all going to go to the red team and no amount of campaigning will make any difference.

Ed Miliband is very rarely seen anyway, although apparently the replacement for Rosie Winterton has been around and about, which is the minimum you'd expect for a new candidate.

Roger · June 28

rkrkrk said:
For those panicking about Biden (and I regret to say I'm joining that camp)... I think the next President market offers some reasonable odds.

For instance if you think Biden may choose to stand down (or be forced to)... you can get 26/1 on Kamala Harris winning. Or 600/1 on Buttigieg.

Is there a mechanism for someone other than Kamala Harris to take over?

DecrepiterJohnL · June 28

The Rest Is Politics (premiere on now): Al calls last night a game changer and says Biden must stand down. The problem is finding a mechanism for Harris to also go, and then to find someone with no baggage.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d1xrMBJcYqo

Mexicanpete · June 28

Pulpstar said:

williamglenn said:
https://x.com/kaylatausche/status/1806675665845903645

NEW, as just reported on @CNN: Not only does @POTUS not plan to drop out, Biden remains committed to a second debate in September, an adviser tells me
Fantastic news for me and Casino 8)

You can spend your winnings on a tin helmet as you battle to keep the Cossacks from taking the Arc de Triomphe.

Leon · June 28

As predicted. The Dems will fall into line. Biden stays. So all this has done is massively damage him - even as he stays the candidate

Helplessly bad. But it’s kinda what they deserve after all their lies for two years - “he’s always stammered”, “he’s amazing in private”, “he’s sharper than ever and wears adult diapers for fun”

Farooq · June 28

I almost single-handedly destroyed the British National party claims Farage.

Yes mate. I single-handedly destroyed a lamb korma last night. It's now part of me. Every time I burp the room smells of it.

rkrkrk · June 28

Roger said:

rkrkrk said:
For those panicking about Biden (and I regret to say I'm joining that camp)... I think the next President market offers some reasonable odds.

For instance if you think Biden may choose to stand down (or be forced to)... you can get 26/1 on Kamala Harris winning. Or 600/1 on Buttigieg.
Is there a mechanism for someone other than Kamala Harris to take over?

If Biden chose to stand down, I think he could also throw it open to delegates to pick someone.

We are well into the realms of political fan fantasy now though...

Malmesbury · June 28

Roger said:

rkrkrk said:
For those panicking about Biden (and I regret to say I'm joining that camp)... I think the next President market offers some reasonable odds.

For instance if you think Biden may choose to stand down (or be forced to)... you can get 26/1 on Kamala Harris winning. Or 600/1 on Buttigieg.
Is there a mechanism for someone other than Kamala Harris to take over?

Not really. Outside West Wing (the TV Show), where the Democratic Party is controlled by 5 people… the real one is controlled by a variety of groups and has very detailed rules and procedures.

Anyone trying to take over from Biden needs broad and deep support in the party.

Roger · June 28

MattW said:

bondegezou said:

MisterBedfordshire said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
I am glad the pubs are closing if this is the sort of talk that goes on in them.

A Reform UK volunteer who was filmed by Channel 4 News calling Rishi Sunak a “f------ p---” has apologised, saying he was “goaded on”.

Andrew Parker said he made the comments, recorded by undercover reporters, “in the heat of the moment”.

Mr Parker also confirmed claims that he was a part-time actor but said he got involved with Reform UK after contacting the party himself and volunteering to do leafleting because he believes in its message.

He said he had not told the party that he was an actor.

Mr Parker said: “Of course I regret what I said. Christ, I’m not a racist. I’ve had Muslim girlfriends. It was typical chaps-down-the-pub talk.”

Asked whether he would like to apologise, he said: “Of course I’m sorry. They were off-the-cuff things that everyone says.”

He said he had “a lot of Pakistani friends” and “Muslim friends”, and that he was “sick to death” of being asked about the footage

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/28/reform-investigate-claim-racist-activist-actor-channel-four/

Asking the PB massive, am I racist because I've never had a Muslim girlfriend?
The open question is was he acting, or were those his views. He's only got a week to wait if he was actually acting and then comes out with gushing interviews about how "I set reform up, it was a service to the nation". He would likely get a lot of work off the back of that from people who hate Farage.
There's no way on God's green earth he'll admit he was acting prior to the big bong at 10 PM next Thursday.
So apparently there's source material showing him campaigning for UKIP/Farage as far back as 2014, that's a decade as a sleeper agent.
If you are going to do a sting, best not to make the subject an apparent card carrying equity holder who specialises in Alf Garnetesque "rough voice" characters and campaigns in character.
The initial report had 3 different Reform UK campaigners saying problematic things. Why are we forgetting the other two?
Correct. This is squirrel throwing from Farage. I think it's more likely the actor a real activist who is now spinning for Farage to discredit C4.

The ones Farage should be (probably is, given that he isn't a doofus) worried about are those in the pub conversation:

George Jones, Farage's Events Organiser
Dan Jukes, Reform National Press Officer
Roger Gravit, Reform London Area Manager
Rob Bates, Senior Reform Campaigner

Talking about:

Rainbow flags on police cars as "degenerate".
Inclusive campaigners and Islamist campaigners compared to Stalin and Hitler wrt to 'us' being Poland.
Needing "straight" police officers.
"Paramilitary" police.
Bring back the noose.

These guys are the core of Farage's team.

https://youtu.be/JmkMpYbOoO0?t=374

Farage had quite a go at his opponent in Clacton accusing him of racism!

rcs1000 · June 28

williamglenn said:
https://x.com/kaylatausche/status/1806675665845903645

NEW, as just reported on @CNN: Not only does @POTUS not plan to drop out, Biden remains committed to a second debate in September, an adviser tells me

Never believe anything until it has been officially denied.

Pulpstar · June 28

Roger said:

rkrkrk said:
For those panicking about Biden (and I regret to say I'm joining that camp)... I think the next President market offers some reasonable odds.

For instance if you think Biden may choose to stand down (or be forced to)... you can get 26/1 on Kamala Harris winning. Or 600/1 on Buttigieg.
Is there a mechanism for someone other than Kamala Harris to take over?

If you believe X, Gavin Newsom and Michelle Obama are going to have a dance off for it at the DNC.

BartholomewRoberts · June 28

CarlottaVance said:
Up the sherry drinkers!

NEW: A poll has been released showing the UK’s voting intention by alcoholic drink preference

https://x.com/politlcsuk/status/1806672615769075805?s=46&t=eiaG-Nju8t7zgfE3oCmAHA

What about us rum drinkers?

The country clearly needs a pirate party!

viewcode · June 28

CarlottaVance said:
Up the sherry drinkers!

NEW: A poll has been released showing the UK’s voting intention by alcoholic drink preference

https://x.com/politlcsuk/status/1806672615769075805?s=46&t=eiaG-Nju8t7zgfE3oCmAHA

No vodka drinkers?

"I drink a whisky drink. I drink a cider drink. I drink a vodka drink. But I was only asked by MIC twice. Bastards" - Chumbawumba, Pollthumping, 1997

rcs1000 · June 28

CarlottaVance said:
Up the sherry drinkers!

NEW: A poll has been released showing the UK’s voting intention by alcoholic drink preference

https://x.com/politlcsuk/status/1806672615769075805?s=46&t=eiaG-Nju8t7zgfE3oCmAHA

That is a fascinating poll (really).

The two best drinking demographics for Reform are Prosecco and shandy.

Think about that for a second: an unholy alliance between people who think that lager is just not sweet enough, and people who like filthy foreign fizz.

PedestrianRock · June 28

FPT

TheWhiteRabbit said:
Most seats w/o Labour

Cons 1.4
LD 3.5

Surely the most interesting bet at the moment?

Yes it really is, it is getting indicated by more and more polls / MRPs now, and bolstered by reports of high levels of tactical voting, as well as the Reform share seeming to hold up well.

A lot of people on here think it *can’t* happen but from what I gather this is mostly because “The Tories falling by X seats *feels* like too many” rather than any specific reasoning that the polls/MRPs might be wrong.

Farooq · June 28

Roger said:

MattW said:

bondegezou said:

MisterBedfordshire said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
I am glad the pubs are closing if this is the sort of talk that goes on in them.

A Reform UK volunteer who was filmed by Channel 4 News calling Rishi Sunak a “f------ p---” has apologised, saying he was “goaded on”.

Andrew Parker said he made the comments, recorded by undercover reporters, “in the heat of the moment”.

Mr Parker also confirmed claims that he was a part-time actor but said he got involved with Reform UK after contacting the party himself and volunteering to do leafleting because he believes in its message.

He said he had not told the party that he was an actor.

Mr Parker said: “Of course I regret what I said. Christ, I’m not a racist. I’ve had Muslim girlfriends. It was typical chaps-down-the-pub talk.”

Asked whether he would like to apologise, he said: “Of course I’m sorry. They were off-the-cuff things that everyone says.”

He said he had “a lot of Pakistani friends” and “Muslim friends”, and that he was “sick to death” of being asked about the footage

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/28/reform-investigate-claim-racist-activist-actor-channel-four/

Asking the PB massive, am I racist because I've never had a Muslim girlfriend?
The open question is was he acting, or were those his views. He's only got a week to wait if he was actually acting and then comes out with gushing interviews about how "I set reform up, it was a service to the nation". He would likely get a lot of work off the back of that from people who hate Farage.
There's no way on God's green earth he'll admit he was acting prior to the big bong at 10 PM next Thursday.
So apparently there's source material showing him campaigning for UKIP/Farage as far back as 2014, that's a decade as a sleeper agent.
If you are going to do a sting, best not to make the subject an apparent card carrying equity holder who specialises in Alf Garnetesque "rough voice" characters and campaigns in character.
The initial report had 3 different Reform UK campaigners saying problematic things. Why are we forgetting the other two?
Correct. This is squirrel throwing from Farage. I think it's more likely the actor a real activist who is now spinning for Farage to discredit C4.

The ones Farage should be (probably is, given that he isn't a doofus) worried about are those in the pub conversation:

George Jones, Farage's Events Organiser
Dan Jukes, Reform National Press Officer
Roger Gravit, Reform London Area Manager
Rob Bates, Senior Reform Campaigner

Talking about:

Rainbow flags on police cars as "degenerate".
Inclusive campaigners and Islamist campaigners compared to Stalin and Hitler wrt to 'us' being Poland.
Needing "straight" police officers.
"Paramilitary" police.
Bring back the noose.

These guys are the core of Farage's team.

https://youtu.be/JmkMpYbOoO0?t=374
Farage had quite a go at his opponent in Clacton accusing him of racism!

The Labour guy? Well, he is Black. I think syllogistic logic has a Faragian branch that might look something like this:

1. Racism is bad
2. Black people are bad
Therefore, Black people are racist.

moonshine · June 28

Leon said:
As predicted. The Dems will fall into line. Biden stays. So all this has done is massively damage him - even as he stays the candidate

Helplessly bad. But it’s kinda what they deserve after all their lies for two years - “he’s always stammered”, “he’s amazing in private”, “he’s sharper than ever and wears adult diapers for fun”

Nah. It’s not even 10am the morning after. Biden won’t be running, they just need the last bit of the fix to overlook Harris too before the coup de grace.

Roger · June 28

MisterBedfordshire said:
Saw my first Tory posters today. Three of them. All on the railings of the town Conservative Club balcony.

.

In that case Ludlow must look like the Cote d'Azur

glw · June 28

Leon said:
As predicted. The Dems will fall into line. Biden stays. So all this has done is massively damage him - even as he stays the candidate

Helplessly bad. But it’s kinda what they deserve after all their lies for two years - “he’s always stammered”, “he’s amazing in private”, “he’s sharper than ever and wears adult diapers for fun”

Biden in 2012 debating Paul Ryan.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yYcdSwbrErI

viewcode · June 28

glw said:

Leon said:
As predicted. The Dems will fall into line. Biden stays. So all this has done is massively damage him - even as he stays the candidate

Helplessly bad. But it’s kinda what they deserve after all their lies for two years - “he’s always stammered”, “he’s amazing in private”, “he’s sharper than ever and wears adult diapers for fun”
Biden in 2012 debating Paul Ryan.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yYcdSwbrErI

Biden in 2008 debating Sarah Palin. Ish.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_iyIbbxVzrU

kinabalu · June 28

Don't know if already posted but 😄😄

https://x.com/shepmates/status/1806548231708705025?t=0Wi9-lyR0G66ZKacruxHqA&s=19

Selebian · June 28

Smarkets (and elsewhere?) quirk - on a binary event, e.g. yes or no answer, if I back yes and later lay yes to secure a profit then the profit becomes available in my balance. However if I back yes and then back no to secure a profit, both bets are counted at risk and not available in my balance.

Is there any reason for this other than the algorithm not being that smart? Why do they offer back and lay on both yes and no on such a bet?

(the particular example is Corbyn to win a seat - I've decided to take the profit on that and have backed yes after backing no as there's no liquidity to sell no. But it clearly won't be available until the market is settled)

PJH · June 28

Thank you to whoever it was that posted a link to a summary of all the predictions on the previous thread.

https://inglesp.github.io/apogee/

Very interesting and possible to see where the 3-way marginals and freak results might be.

Also, there are only 11 seats that all models agree will be Conservative. Just 11 safe seats left? (By comparison, even the LDs have 20).

IanB2 · June 28

LloydBanks said:

MisterBedfordshire said:
Saw my first Tory posters today. Three of them. All on the railings of the town Conservative Club balcony.

They also had a union flag which for some reason was flying at half mast.
The Conservative Club in South Croydon hadn't even bothered putting up a Philp board when I drove past the other day

Most patrons of Conservative Clubs are elderly alcoholics who start their day’s drinking before lunchtime and are most unlikely to make it to the polling station at all. Think, Leon, in a decade or so’s time.

Pulpstar · June 28

rcs1000 said:

CarlottaVance said:
Up the sherry drinkers!

NEW: A poll has been released showing the UK’s voting intention by alcoholic drink preference

https://x.com/politlcsuk/status/1806672615769075805?s=46&t=eiaG-Nju8t7zgfE3oCmAHA
That is a fascinating poll (really).

The two best drinking demographics for Reform are Prosecco and shandy.

Think about that for a second: an unholy alliance between people who think that lager is just not sweet enough, and people who like filthy foreign fizz.

You're misreading it - it's not Prosecco, it's cider that's second.

PedestrianRock · June 28

Roger said:

rkrkrk said:
For those panicking about Biden (and I regret to say I'm joining that camp)... I think the next President market offers some reasonable odds.

For instance if you think Biden may choose to stand down (or be forced to)... you can get 26/1 on Kamala Harris winning. Or 600/1 on Buttigieg.
Is there a mechanism for someone other than Kamala Harris to take over?

Here’s an issue with the pathways

A) Keep Biden/Harris - bad for the reasons outlined

Keep Biden as President to see out his term, but the 2024 ticket is Harris/new VP - Easy attack line for Trump “the Democrats are being irresponsible, leaving us with a lame duck President and making our country unsafe!”

C) Elevate Harris now, choose new VP - Harris seen as a bad candidate. New VP might not get confirmed by House pre election. Trump can say “no VP, our country is exposed!”

D) Ditch both Biden and Harris on the ticket, but keep them in power. Black female voters will see Harris as passed over, may annoy them a lot. Biden/Harris seen as lame ducks for Trump to attack. Hard to pick suitable new pair.

E) Ditch Biden now, elevate Harris, but Harris not on ticket. Same problem as above, unless you can convince Michelle Obama and you think that’s a good strategy.

It’s very very difficult. I sympathise with them not sorting this out sooner. Personally I think you either try for Michelle, or you go all in on Kamala. Sticking with Joe at this point feels very very dicey.

Nigelb · June 28

rcs1000 said:

williamglenn said:

mwadams said:
FPT:

FrancisUrquhart said:
Pro_Rate....live it was far worse than the highlights. It wasn't a person gets one answer a bit mixed up.
I agree. If the clips packages are making it look "not too bad" for Biden, they are being very, very generous. It was painful to watch last night.

If the Democrats don't get Biden to step aside and maximize any positive publicity they can extract from an Open Convention, the world will be in a very bad place next year.
There's a risk that an open convention would turn into a repeat of 1968.
Didn't the Democrats come back strongly after the convention in 1968? Nixon had been massively ahead, and ended up with a pretty narrow victory (43.4 v 42.7)?

Indeed, if it hadn't been for Wallace making Humphrey's vote very inefficient in the South - both by taking some states and handing others to Nixon - then he might have won.

There was also the small matter of the frontrunner for the nomination, and likely winner of the presidential election, being assassinated.

Comparisons with 1968 - when the party machine was a real thing, the McGovern campaign for the nomination was a brief insurgency, and Humphrey was effectively chosen by the party establishment, are far fetched.

The process, should it ever happen, would be very different this time around.

Roger · June 28

Leon said:
As predicted. The Dems will fall into line. Biden stays. So all this has done is massively damage him - even as he stays the candidate

Helplessly bad. But it’s kinda what they deserve after all their lies for two years - “he’s always stammered”, “he’s amazing in private”, “he’s sharper than ever and wears adult diapers for fun”

Are you sure you're not Richard Littlejohn?

Fairliered · June 28

rcs1000 said:

CarlottaVance said:
Up the sherry drinkers!

NEW: A poll has been released showing the UK’s voting intention by alcoholic drink preference

https://x.com/politlcsuk/status/1806672615769075805?s=46&t=eiaG-Nju8t7zgfE3oCmAHA
That is a fascinating poll (really).

The two best drinking demographics for Reform are Prosecco and shandy.

Think about that for a second: an unholy alliance between people who think that lager is just not sweet enough, and people who like filthy foreign fizz.

A prosecco shandy sounds ideal for one of those drinking games where you each choose a drink, mix them together and toss for who has got to drink it.

HYUFD · June 28

IanB2 said:

LloydBanks said:

MisterBedfordshire said:
Saw my first Tory posters today. Three of them. All on the railings of the town Conservative Club balcony.

They also had a union flag which for some reason was flying at half mast.
The Conservative Club in South Croydon hadn't even bothered putting up a Philp board when I drove past the other day
Most patrons of Conservative Clubs are elderly alcoholics who start their day’s drinking before lunchtime and are most unlikely to make it to the polling station at all. Think, Leon, in a decade or so’s time.

Cheapest beer and best snooker and karaoke in town Con Clubs, if the Tories want to revive in opposition they could start rebuilding from there

Nigelb · June 28

Roger said:

rkrkrk said:
For those panicking about Biden (and I regret to say I'm joining that camp)... I think the next President market offers some reasonable odds.

For instance if you think Biden may choose to stand down (or be forced to)... you can get 26/1 on Kamala Harris winning. Or 600/1 on Buttigieg.
Is there a mechanism for someone other than Kamala Harris to take over?

The mechanism is a vote of delegates to the national convention. Which is in the middle of August.

How you persuade several thousand individuals chosen largely on the basis of a record of loyalty to Joe Biden is something for which a known mechanism doesn't exit.

sarissa · June 28

Farooq said:

CarlottaVance said:
Up the sherry drinkers!

NEW: A poll has been released showing the UK’s voting intention by alcoholic drink preference

https://x.com/politlcsuk/status/1806672615769075805?s=46&t=eiaG-Nju8t7zgfE3oCmAHA
I'm a white wine drinker. I'm also known to be a filthy centrist. Judging from that graph, I've found my people.

Best SNP score is for shandy drinkers? I would have thought they would be on hard stuff by now.

eek · June 28

HYUFD said:

IanB2 said:

LloydBanks said:

MisterBedfordshire said:
Saw my first Tory posters today. Three of them. All on the railings of the town Conservative Club balcony.

They also had a union flag which for some reason was flying at half mast.
The Conservative Club in South Croydon hadn't even bothered putting up a Philp board when I drove past the other day
Most patrons of Conservative Clubs are elderly alcoholics who start their day’s drinking before lunchtime and are most unlikely to make it to the polling station at all. Think, Leon, in a decade or so’s time.
Cheapest beer and best snooker and karaoke in town Con Clubs, if the Tories want to revive in opposition they could start rebuilding from there

Except a lot of younger people simply don't drink nowadays - it's just not the sales pitch it used to be...

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