As predicted. The Dems will fall into line. Biden stays. So all this has done is massively damage him - even as he stays the candidate
Helplessly bad. But it’s kinda what they deserve after all their lies for two years - “he’s always stammered”, “he’s amazing in private”, “he’s sharper than ever and wears adult diapers for fun”
Nah. It’s not even 10am the morning after. Biden won’t be running, they just need the last bit of the fix to overlook Harris too before the coup de grace.
That’s what I thought a few hours ago. But after contemplating - and seeing the first signs of wilful self-delusion “he wasn’t that bad really”, “ok he couldn’t form any words for an hour on live TV but he’s got a cold” I am fairly sure they will rationalise themselves to keeping him
If it was EASY to replace him then Yes. He’d be gone tonight. But he apparently wants to stay and so does his wife and all the replacements are problematic
However you may be right. Confronted with the horror of a likely Trump victory they may be galvanised
I am glad the pubs are closing if this is the sort of talk that goes on in them.
A Reform UK volunteer who was filmed by Channel 4 News calling Rishi Sunak a “f------ p---” has apologised, saying he was “goaded on”.
Andrew Parker said he made the comments, recorded by undercover reporters, “in the heat of the moment”.
Mr Parker also confirmed claims that he was a part-time actor but said he got involved with Reform UK after contacting the party himself and volunteering to do leafleting because he believes in its message.
He said he had not told the party that he was an actor.
Mr Parker said: “Of course I regret what I said. Christ, I’m not a racist. I’ve had Muslim girlfriends. It was typical chaps-down-the-pub talk.”
Asked whether he would like to apologise, he said: “Of course I’m sorry. They were off-the-cuff things that everyone says.”
He said he had “a lot of Pakistani friends” and “Muslim friends”, and that he was “sick to death” of being asked about the footage
Asking the PB massive, am I racist because I've never had a Muslim girlfriend?
The open question is was he acting, or were those his views. He's only got a week to wait if he was actually acting and then comes out with gushing interviews about how "I set reform up, it was a service to the nation". He would likely get a lot of work off the back of that from people who hate Farage. There's no way on God's green earth he'll admit he was acting prior to the big bong at 10 PM next Thursday.
So apparently there's source material showing him campaigning for UKIP/Farage as far back as 2014, that's a decade as a sleeper agent.
A lot of ReformUK tweets now going around saying Trump US, Le Pen France then Farage UK
Well a possible one-out-of-three isn't bad I suppose. And even that's dependent on Biden not pulling out
Le Pen's party is already heading for most legislative seats and is likely to have elected the next French PM within a month, Farage's party is also polling better than any party right of the Tories has done this close to a GE.
No evidence any other Dem polls better than Biden v Trump either
Bloody hell ushant is lovely. The sun has entirely come out and there is nothing to do but drink nice wine and go sailing effortlessly down flower filled lanes on my ebike - beach to cove to creperie
Saw my first Tory posters today. Three of them. All on the railings of the town Conservative Club balcony.
They also had a union flag which for some reason was flying at half mast.
The Conservative Club in South Croydon hadn't even bothered putting up a Philp board when I drove past the other day
Most patrons of Conservative Clubs are elderly alcoholics who start their day’s drinking before lunchtime and are most unlikely to make it to the polling station at all. Think, Leon, in a decade or so’s time.
Cheapest beer and best snooker and karaoke in town Con Clubs, if the Tories want to revive in opposition they could start rebuilding from there
I cannot now unsee you dancing round the table and singing Snooker Loopy whilst drinking a pint of mild!
As predicted. The Dems will fall into line. Biden stays. So all this has done is massively damage him - even as he stays the candidate
Helplessly bad. But it’s kinda what they deserve after all their lies for two years - “he’s always stammered”, “he’s amazing in private”, “he’s sharper than ever and wears adult diapers for fun”
Nah. It’s not even 10am the morning after. Biden won’t be running, they just need the last bit of the fix to overlook Harris too before the coup de grace.
That’s what I thought a few hours ago. But after contemplating - and seeing the first signs of wilful self-delusion “he wasn’t that bad really”, “ok he couldn’t form any words for an hour on live TV but he’s got a cold” I am fairly sure they will rationalise themselves to keeping him
If it was EASY to replace him then Yes. He’d be gone tonight. But he apparently wants to stay and so does his wife and all the replacements are problematic
However you may be right. Confronted with the horror of a likely Trump victory they may be galvanised
Its compelling in a macabre way
It's too early to know.
A lot of people in the party have to do a lot of talking with each other.
Maybe we will have a clearer idea by end of the weekend?
For those panicking about Biden (and I regret to say I'm joining that camp)... I think the next President market offers some reasonable odds.
For instance if you think Biden may choose to stand down (or be forced to)... you can get 26/1 on Kamala Harris winning. Or 600/1 on Buttigieg.
Is there a mechanism for someone other than Kamala Harris to take over?
Here’s an issue with the pathways
A) Keep Biden/Harris - bad for the reasons outlined
Keep Biden as President to see out his term, but the 2024 ticket is Harris/new VP - Easy attack line for Trump “the Democrats are being irresponsible, leaving us with a lame duck President and making our country unsafe!”
C) Elevate Harris now, choose new VP - Harris seen as a bad candidate. New VP might not get confirmed by House pre election. Trump can say “no VP, our country is exposed!”
D) Ditch both Biden and Harris on the ticket, but keep them in power. Black female voters will see Harris as passed over, may annoy them a lot. Biden/Harris seen as lame ducks for Trump to attack. Hard to pick suitable new pair.
E) Ditch Biden now, elevate Harris, but Harris not on ticket. Same problem as above, unless you can convince Michelle Obama and you think that’s a good strategy.
It’s very very difficult. I sympathise with them not sorting this out sooner. Personally I think you either try for Michelle, or you go all in on Kamala. Sticking with Joe at this point feels very very dicey.
On C I don't think the VP vacancy thing is a problem, it would clearly be the GOP's fault and the solution would be the election.
The problem is simply, would Kamala Harris win? The polling says she'd lose. That's not necessarily predictive, but it's the only data we've got.
In any case this isn't ultimately up to The Democrats, it's up to Joe Biden.
Saw my first Tory posters today. Three of them. All on the railings of the town Conservative Club balcony.
They also had a union flag which for some reason was flying at half mast.
The Conservative Club in South Croydon hadn't even bothered putting up a Philp board when I drove past the other day
Most patrons of Conservative Clubs are elderly alcoholics who start their day’s drinking before lunchtime and are most unlikely to make it to the polling station at all. Think, Leon, in a decade or so’s time.
Cheapest beer and best snooker and karaoke in town Con Clubs, if the Tories want to revive in opposition they could start rebuilding from there
Except a lot of younger people simply don't drink nowadays - it's just not the sales pitch it used to be...
It is the middle aged and pensioners Tories need to rebuild from, young people never vote Tory anyway
The two best drinking demographics for Reform are Prosecco and shandy.
Think about that for a second: an unholy alliance between people who think that lager is just not sweet enough, and people who like filthy foreign fizz.
You're misreading it - it's not Prosecco, it's cider that's second.
The prosecco section includes other sparkling wins too.
Apart from Sherry and G and T doesn't look much more than MoE.
Saw my first Tory posters today. Three of them. All on the railings of the town Conservative Club balcony.
They also had a union flag which for some reason was flying at half mast.
The Conservative Club in South Croydon hadn't even bothered putting up a Philp board when I drove past the other day
Most patrons of Conservative Clubs are elderly alcoholics who start their day’s drinking before lunchtime and are most unlikely to make it to the polling station at all. Think, Leon, in a decade or so’s time.
Cheapest beer and best snooker and karaoke in town Con Clubs, if the Tories want to revive in opposition they could start rebuilding from there
Except a lot of younger people simply don't drink nowadays - it's just not the sales pitch it used to be...
My head canon says that as people socialise online more, they need alcohol less. The only time I drink is in social situations, but remove the social element and I just don't drink alcohol at all. I sometimes get paid in bottles of wine (long story) and I have to give them to plumbers etc just to get rid of them. The wine, not the plumbers.
As predicted. The Dems will fall into line. Biden stays. So all this has done is massively damage him - even as he stays the candidate
Helplessly bad. But it’s kinda what they deserve after all their lies for two years - “he’s always stammered”, “he’s amazing in private”, “he’s sharper than ever and wears adult diapers for fun”
Nah. It’s not even 10am the morning after. Biden won’t be running, they just need the last bit of the fix to overlook Harris too before the coup de grace.
That’s what I thought a few hours ago. But after contemplating - and seeing the first signs of wilful self-delusion “he wasn’t that bad really”, “ok he couldn’t form any words for an hour on live TV but he’s got a cold” I am fairly sure they will rationalise themselves to keeping him
If it was EASY to replace him then Yes. He’d be gone tonight. But he apparently wants to stay and so does his wife and all the replacements are problematic
However you may be right. Confronted with the horror of a likely Trump victory they may be galvanised
Its compelling in a macabre way
Trump will win and destroy democracy in the USA and poor old Joe won’t even know.
As predicted. The Dems will fall into line. Biden stays. So all this has done is massively damage him - even as he stays the candidate
Helplessly bad. But it’s kinda what they deserve after all their lies for two years - “he’s always stammered”, “he’s amazing in private”, “he’s sharper than ever and wears adult diapers for fun”
Nah. It’s not even 10am the morning after. Biden won’t be running, they just need the last bit of the fix to overlook Harris too before the coup de grace.
That’s what I thought a few hours ago. But after contemplating - and seeing the first signs of wilful self-delusion “he wasn’t that bad really”, “ok he couldn’t form any words for an hour on live TV but he’s got a cold” I am fairly sure they will rationalise themselves to keeping him
If it was EASY to replace him then Yes. He’d be gone tonight. But he apparently wants to stay and so does his wife and all the replacements are problematic
However you may be right. Confronted with the horror of a likely Trump victory they may be galvanised
Its compelling in a macabre way
Trump will win and destroy democracy in the USA and poor old Joe won’t even know.
Not so sure. I fear an assassination may be at hand.
Saw my first Tory posters today. Three of them. All on the railings of the town Conservative Club balcony.
They also had a union flag which for some reason was flying at half mast.
The Conservative Club in South Croydon hadn't even bothered putting up a Philp board when I drove past the other day
Most patrons of Conservative Clubs are elderly alcoholics who start their day’s drinking before lunchtime and are most unlikely to make it to the polling station at all. Think, Leon, in a decade or so’s time.
Cheapest beer and best snooker and karaoke in town Con Clubs, if the Tories want to revive in opposition they could start rebuilding from there
Except a lot of younger people simply don't drink nowadays - it's just not the sales pitch it used to be...
As a young person I have yet to be convinced that holds true once you control for religion.
As predicted. The Dems will fall into line. Biden stays. So all this has done is massively damage him - even as he stays the candidate
Helplessly bad. But it’s kinda what they deserve after all their lies for two years - “he’s always stammered”, “he’s amazing in private”, “he’s sharper than ever and wears adult diapers for fun”
Nah. It’s not even 10am the morning after. Biden won’t be running, they just need the last bit of the fix to overlook Harris too before the coup de grace.
That’s what I thought a few hours ago. But after contemplating - and seeing the first signs of wilful self-delusion “he wasn’t that bad really”, “ok he couldn’t form any words for an hour on live TV but he’s got a cold” I am fairly sure they will rationalise themselves to keeping him
If it was EASY to replace him then Yes. He’d be gone tonight. But he apparently wants to stay and so does his wife and all the replacements are problematic
However you may be right. Confronted with the horror of a likely Trump victory they may be galvanised
Its compelling in a macabre way
Trump will win and destroy democracy in the USA and poor old Joe won’t even know.
Not so sure. I fear an assassination may be at hand.
Pro_Rate....live it was far worse than the highlights. It wasn't a person gets one answer a bit mixed up.
I agree. If the clips packages are making it look "not too bad" for Biden, they are being very, very generous. It was painful to watch last night.
If the Democrats don't get Biden to step aside and maximize any positive publicity they can extract from an Open Convention, the world will be in a very bad place next year.
There's a risk that an open convention would turn into a repeat of 1968.
With the liberal wing of the party in open revolt against the presumptive nominee over Vietnam ? That seems one of the less likely scenarios to me, but WDIK ?
Sky news showing a visibly angry Rishi Sunak condemning and actually saying the racist slur against him by the Reform volunteer
Apparently the police are now investigating whether an offence has been committed and the Sky report is not going to help Reform with highlighting their pro Putin, racist and misogynistic views
Time for conservatives to wake up and vote for the party to defend it from these vile views and characters
Actually, joking aside, I would not be surprised if America’s political impasse was resolved with violence. America is a very violent society. Lots of politicians have been shot over the decades
It does arguably “solve” an insoluble problem.
And you could argue either makes a good target for those so minded
Saw my first Tory posters today. Three of them. All on the railings of the town Conservative Club balcony.
They also had a union flag which for some reason was flying at half mast.
The Conservative Club in South Croydon hadn't even bothered putting up a Philp board when I drove past the other day
Most patrons of Conservative Clubs are elderly alcoholics who start their day’s drinking before lunchtime and are most unlikely to make it to the polling station at all. Think, Leon, in a decade or so’s time.
Cheapest beer and best snooker and karaoke in town Con Clubs, if the Tories want to revive in opposition they could start rebuilding from there
Except a lot of younger people simply don't drink nowadays - it's just not the sales pitch it used to be...
Certainly that seems to be true in my granddaughters university group
As predicted. The Dems will fall into line. Biden stays. So all this has done is massively damage him - even as he stays the candidate
Helplessly bad. But it’s kinda what they deserve after all their lies for two years - “he’s always stammered”, “he’s amazing in private”, “he’s sharper than ever and wears adult diapers for fun”
Nah. It’s not even 10am the morning after. Biden won’t be running, they just need the last bit of the fix to overlook Harris too before the coup de grace.
That’s what I thought a few hours ago. But after contemplating - and seeing the first signs of wilful self-delusion “he wasn’t that bad really”, “ok he couldn’t form any words for an hour on live TV but he’s got a cold” I am fairly sure they will rationalise themselves to keeping him
If it was EASY to replace him then Yes. He’d be gone tonight. But he apparently wants to stay and so does his wife and all the replacements are problematic
However you may be right. Confronted with the horror of a likely Trump victory they may be galvanised
Its compelling in a macabre way
It's too early to know.
A lot of people in the party have to do a lot of talking with each other.
Maybe we will have a clearer idea by end of the weekend?
They can't just change the ballots at this stage.......the red states won't allow it......
Saw my first Tory posters today. Three of them. All on the railings of the town Conservative Club balcony.
They also had a union flag which for some reason was flying at half mast.
The Conservative Club in South Croydon hadn't even bothered putting up a Philp board when I drove past the other day
Most patrons of Conservative Clubs are elderly alcoholics who start their day’s drinking before lunchtime and are most unlikely to make it to the polling station at all. Think, Leon, in a decade or so’s time.
Cheapest beer and best snooker and karaoke in town Con Clubs, if the Tories want to revive in opposition they could start rebuilding from there
Between the wars my Great Grandfather was a grandee of Llanelli Conservative Club. We're still waiting for the revival in your fortunes and the first Conservative MP. Mind you it was within 5,000 votes in 2019.
Sky news showing a visibly angry Rishi Sunak condemning and actually saying the racist slur against him by the Reform volunteer
Apparently the police are now investigating whether an offence has been committed and the Sky report is not going to help Reform with their pro Putin, racist and misogynistic views
Time for conservatives to wake up and vote for the party to defend it from these vile views and characters
Or, as a radical alternative, they might consider voting for a Party that has not fed off or tried to cash in on that theme.
That would actually give them quite a wide choice.
Sky news showing a visibly angry Rishi Sunak condemning and actually saying the racist slur against him by the Reform volunteer
Apparently the police are now investigating whether an offence has been committed and the Sky report is not going to help Reform with their pro Putin, racist and misogynistic views
Time for conservatives to wake up and vote for the party to defend it from these vile views and characters
A telling last line from you there. It's the Conservatives who are the real victims, in your mind. Not people of colour.
I'm a white wine drinker. I'm also known to be a filthy centrist. Judging from that graph, I've found my people.
Best SNP score is for shandy drinkers? I would have thought they would be on hard stuff by now.
Well, I've just been drinking some low-alcohol cider with my lunch roll - can't bear coke or simialr soft drinks. And shandy is the nearest to that so I would probably have said yes.
For those panicking about Biden (and I regret to say I'm joining that camp)... I think the next President market offers some reasonable odds.
For instance if you think Biden may choose to stand down (or be forced to)... you can get 26/1 on Kamala Harris winning. Or 600/1 on Buttigieg.
Is there a mechanism for someone other than Kamala Harris to take over?
The mechanism is a vote of delegates to the national convention. Which is in the middle of August.
How you persuade several thousand individuals chosen largely on the basis of a record of loyalty to Joe Biden is something for which a known mechanism doesn't exit.
Regardless of their loyalty, aren't most mandated to pick Biden? They're not free agents. The convention selects Biden unless Biden pulls out... I think.
Pro_Rate....live it was far worse than the highlights. It wasn't a person gets one answer a bit mixed up.
I agree. If the clips packages are making it look "not too bad" for Biden, they are being very, very generous. It was painful to watch last night.
If the Democrats don't get Biden to step aside and maximize any positive publicity they can extract from an Open Convention, the world will be in a very bad place next year.
There's a risk that an open convention would turn into a repeat of 1968.
There's always a risk when you let things get to this state.
Sky news showing a visibly angry Rishi Sunak condemning and actually saying the racist slur against him by the Reform volunteer
Apparently the police are now investigating whether an offence has been committed and the Sky report is not going to help Reform with their pro Putin, racist and misogynistic views
Time for conservatives to wake up and vote for the party to defend it from these vile views and characters
A telling last line from you there. It's the Conservatives who are the real victims, in your mind. Not people of colour.
But also the Polis will find out once and for all whether this actor chap was a C4 plant.
Sky news showing a visibly angry Rishi Sunak condemning and actually saying the racist slur against him by the Reform volunteer
Apparently the police are now investigating whether an offence has been committed and the Sky report is not going to help Reform with their pro Putin, racist and misogynistic views
Time for conservatives to wake up and vote for the party to defend it from these vile views and characters
Unfortunately there are quite a lot of people, who will lapping up those vile comments, and I confidently expect Farage to win in Clacton, I have heard that Labour are putting in no effort there, but with the Torys present poll ratings it's hard to see them win, anyone who votes for Farage's merry band of racists, need to take a long hard look at themselves
Sky news showing a visibly angry Rishi Sunak condemning and actually saying the racist slur against him by the Reform volunteer
Apparently the police are now investigating whether an offence has been committed and the Sky report is not going to help Reform with their pro Putin, racist and misogynistic views
Time for conservatives to wake up and vote for the party to defend it from these vile views and characters
A telling last line from you there. It's the Conservatives who are the real victims, in your mind. Not people of colour.
Your comment is despicable
I condemn racism and always have, but the only way the conservative party has a chance of remaining s one nation party is to ensure Reform are soundly beaten at the ballot box
As predicted. The Dems will fall into line. Biden stays. So all this has done is massively damage him - even as he stays the candidate
Helplessly bad. But it’s kinda what they deserve after all their lies for two years - “he’s always stammered”, “he’s amazing in private”, “he’s sharper than ever and wears adult diapers for fun”
Nah. It’s not even 10am the morning after. Biden won’t be running, they just need the last bit of the fix to overlook Harris too before the coup de grace.
That’s what I thought a few hours ago. But after contemplating - and seeing the first signs of wilful self-delusion “he wasn’t that bad really”, “ok he couldn’t form any words for an hour on live TV but he’s got a cold” I am fairly sure they will rationalise themselves to keeping him
If it was EASY to replace him then Yes. He’d be gone tonight. But he apparently wants to stay and so does his wife and all the replacements are problematic
However you may be right. Confronted with the horror of a likely Trump victory they may be galvanised
Its compelling in a macabre way
Trump will win and destroy democracy in the USA and poor old Joe won’t even know.
Not so sure. I fear an assassination may be at hand.
Or two assassinations
I wish that were funny, Leon, or implausible, and preferably both.
Sky news showing a visibly angry Rishi Sunak condemning and actually saying the racist slur against him by the Reform volunteer
Apparently the police are now investigating whether an offence has been committed and the Sky report is not going to help Reform with their pro Putin, racist and misogynistic views
Time for conservatives to wake up and vote for the party to defend it from these vile views and characters
A telling last line from you there. It's the Conservatives who are the real victims, in your mind. Not people of colour.
Your comment is despicable
I condemn racism and always have, but the only way the conservative party has a chance of remaining s one nation party is to ensure Reform are soundly beaten at the ballot box
There it is again. This isn't about the Conservative Party.
As predicted. The Dems will fall into line. Biden stays. So all this has done is massively damage him - even as he stays the candidate
Helplessly bad. But it’s kinda what they deserve after all their lies for two years - “he’s always stammered”, “he’s amazing in private”, “he’s sharper than ever and wears adult diapers for fun”
Nah. It’s not even 10am the morning after. Biden won’t be running, they just need the last bit of the fix to overlook Harris too before the coup de grace.
That’s what I thought a few hours ago. But after contemplating - and seeing the first signs of wilful self-delusion “he wasn’t that bad really”, “ok he couldn’t form any words for an hour on live TV but he’s got a cold” I am fairly sure they will rationalise themselves to keeping him
If it was EASY to replace him then Yes. He’d be gone tonight. But he apparently wants to stay and so does his wife and all the replacements are problematic
However you may be right. Confronted with the horror of a likely Trump victory they may be galvanised
Its compelling in a macabre way
My x timeline is showing floods of apparently left leaning talking heads and podcasters saying out loud that Biden is done.
I don’t know why people think it’s hard not to pick Harris. You simply have a vote at the convention where she doesn’t win. There. Done. If the identity politics crowd don’t like who’s picked, they can always vote for the open racist in Nov.
Actually, joking aside, I would not be surprised if America’s political impasse was resolved with violence. America is a very violent society. Lots of politicians have been shot over the decades
It does arguably “solve” an insoluble problem.
And you could argue either makes a good target for those so minded
What does it do to Trump’s chances if he actually in jail on election day?
Would it scupper them or would he claim martyrdom?
Sky news showing a visibly angry Rishi Sunak condemning and actually saying the racist slur against him by the Reform volunteer
Apparently the police are now investigating whether an offence has been committed and the Sky report is not going to help Reform with their pro Putin, racist and misogynistic views
Time for conservatives to wake up and vote for the party to defend it from these vile views and characters
Or, as a radical alternative, they might consider voting for a Party that has not fed off or tried to cash in on that theme.
That would actually give them quite a wide choice.
The danger is Reform out polls the conservative party and then Farage becomes the voice of the opposition
Actually, joking aside, I would not be surprised if America’s political impasse was resolved with violence. America is a very violent society. Lots of politicians have been shot over the decades
It does arguably “solve” an insoluble problem.
And you could argue either makes a good target for those so minded
What does it do to Trump’s chances if he actually in jail on election day?
Would it scupper them or would he claim martyrdom?
For those panicking about Biden (and I regret to say I'm joining that camp)... I think the next President market offers some reasonable odds.
For instance if you think Biden may choose to stand down (or be forced to)... you can get 26/1 on Kamala Harris winning. Or 600/1 on Buttigieg.
Is there a mechanism for someone other than Kamala Harris to take over?
Here’s an issue with the pathways
A) Keep Biden/Harris - bad for the reasons outlined
Keep Biden as President to see out his term, but the 2024 ticket is Harris/new VP - Easy attack line for Trump “the Democrats are being irresponsible, leaving us with a lame duck President and making our country unsafe!”
C) Elevate Harris now, choose new VP - Harris seen as a bad candidate. New VP might not get confirmed by House pre election. Trump can say “no VP, our country is exposed!”
D) Ditch both Biden and Harris on the ticket, but keep them in power. Black female voters will see Harris as passed over, may annoy them a lot. Biden/Harris seen as lame ducks for Trump to attack. Hard to pick suitable new pair.
E) Ditch Biden now, elevate Harris, but Harris not on ticket. Same problem as above, unless you can convince Michelle Obama and you think that’s a good strategy.
It’s very very difficult. I sympathise with them not sorting this out sooner. Personally I think you either try for Michelle, or you go all in on Kamala. Sticking with Joe at this point feels very very dicey.
On C I don't think the VP vacancy thing is a problem, it would clearly be the GOP's fault and the solution would be the election.
The problem is simply, would Kamala Harris win? The polling says she'd lose. That's not necessarily predictive, but it's the only data we've got.
In any case this isn't ultimately up to The Democrats, it's up to Joe Biden.
I think the danger the Democrats have now is that keeping Biden on the ticket looks irresponsible now (some would say it has for some time but that’s another matter).
I think they owe it to the country to actually put someone with all their faculties forward, be that Harris or AN Other. Regardless of whether they can stop Trump or not.
Biden will not stop Trump now. So they need to give someone else a go.
For those panicking about Biden (and I regret to say I'm joining that camp)... I think the next President market offers some reasonable odds.
For instance if you think Biden may choose to stand down (or be forced to)... you can get 26/1 on Kamala Harris winning. Or 600/1 on Buttigieg.
Is there a mechanism for someone other than Kamala Harris to take over?
Here’s an issue with the pathways
A) Keep Biden/Harris - bad for the reasons outlined
Keep Biden as President to see out his term, but the 2024 ticket is Harris/new VP - Easy attack line for Trump “the Democrats are being irresponsible, leaving us with a lame duck President and making our country unsafe!”
C) Elevate Harris now, choose new VP - Harris seen as a bad candidate. New VP might not get confirmed by House pre election. Trump can say “no VP, our country is exposed!”
D) Ditch both Biden and Harris on the ticket, but keep them in power. Black female voters will see Harris as passed over, may annoy them a lot. Biden/Harris seen as lame ducks for Trump to attack. Hard to pick suitable new pair.
E) Ditch Biden now, elevate Harris, but Harris not on ticket. Same problem as above, unless you can convince Michelle Obama and you think that’s a good strategy.
It’s very very difficult. I sympathise with them not sorting this out sooner. Personally I think you either try for Michelle, or you go all in on Kamala. Sticking with Joe at this point feels very very dicey.
I agree with some of that. Trump will come up with an attack line whatever, so I wouldn't overly worry about that.
Basically, Biden goes or he doesn't. If he doesn't, it's Harris or someone else. The exact pathway doesn't matter as much. If you're going with Harris, it makes sense to make her President a.s.a.p., because then she can go around looking presidential. The Republicans playing games over nominating a new VP looks bad for them, not the Dems.
First, thanks yet again to The Green Machine for posting this analysis.
Second, am confused by statement that, "Naomi Long [APNI] could be depending on the SF voters and transfers". The voters I get; but transfers? Thought that Westminster elections in NI were like rest of UK = FPTP?
Sky news showing a visibly angry Rishi Sunak condemning and actually saying the racist slur against him by the Reform volunteer
Apparently the police are now investigating whether an offence has been committed and the Sky report is not going to help Reform with highlighting their pro Putin, racist and misogynistic views
Time for conservatives to wake up and vote for the party to defend it from these vile views and characters
It was quite noticeable the uptick in Reform polling when Sunak took over the Tory leadership.
As predicted. The Dems will fall into line. Biden stays. So all this has done is massively damage him - even as he stays the candidate
Helplessly bad. But it’s kinda what they deserve after all their lies for two years - “he’s always stammered”, “he’s amazing in private”, “he’s sharper than ever and wears adult diapers for fun”
Nah. It’s not even 10am the morning after. Biden won’t be running, they just need the last bit of the fix to overlook Harris too before the coup de grace.
That’s what I thought a few hours ago. But after contemplating - and seeing the first signs of wilful self-delusion “he wasn’t that bad really”, “ok he couldn’t form any words for an hour on live TV but he’s got a cold” I am fairly sure they will rationalise themselves to keeping him
If it was EASY to replace him then Yes. He’d be gone tonight. But he apparently wants to stay and so does his wife and all the replacements are problematic
However you may be right. Confronted with the horror of a likely Trump victory they may be galvanised
Its compelling in a macabre way
Trump will win and destroy democracy in the USA and poor old Joe won’t even know.
Not so sure. I fear an assassination may be at hand.
Or two assassinations
I wish that were funny, Leon, or implausible, and preferably both.
But it's neither.
Yes, I’m absolutely serious. I can see it happening to either candidate for multiple reasons
Clearly I pray I’m wrong but America has an awful lot of guns, a history of assassinations, and plenty of angry or bad or desperate people
As predicted. The Dems will fall into line. Biden stays. So all this has done is massively damage him - even as he stays the candidate
Helplessly bad. But it’s kinda what they deserve after all their lies for two years - “he’s always stammered”, “he’s amazing in private”, “he’s sharper than ever and wears adult diapers for fun”
Nah. It’s not even 10am the morning after. Biden won’t be running, they just need the last bit of the fix to overlook Harris too before the coup de grace.
That’s what I thought a few hours ago. But after contemplating - and seeing the first signs of wilful self-delusion “he wasn’t that bad really”, “ok he couldn’t form any words for an hour on live TV but he’s got a cold” I am fairly sure they will rationalise themselves to keeping him
If it was EASY to replace him then Yes. He’d be gone tonight. But he apparently wants to stay and so does his wife and all the replacements are problematic
However you may be right. Confronted with the horror of a likely Trump victory they may be galvanised
Its compelling in a macabre way
It's too early to know.
A lot of people in the party have to do a lot of talking with each other.
Maybe we will have a clearer idea by end of the weekend?
They can't just change the ballots at this stage.......the red states won't allow it......
Doesn't matter.
Remember you don't elect the President, you elect electors. The Biden electors would just vote for AN Other in the Electoral College.
And - btw - the ballot probably shouldn't be printed anyway until after the Convention, when someone officially becomes the candidate.
Sky news showing a visibly angry Rishi Sunak condemning and actually saying the racist slur against him by the Reform volunteer
Apparently the police are now investigating whether an offence has been committed and the Sky report is not going to help Reform with their pro Putin, racist and misogynistic views
Time for conservatives to wake up and vote for the party to defend it from these vile views and characters
Or, as a radical alternative, they might consider voting for a Party that has not fed off or tried to cash in on that theme.
That would actually give them quite a wide choice.
The danger is Reform out polls the conservative party and then Farage becomes the voice of the opposition
If Reform polls, say, 8% and the Tories 7%, then it's not a problem.
Sky news showing a visibly angry Rishi Sunak condemning and actually saying the racist slur against him by the Reform volunteer
Apparently the police are now investigating whether an offence has been committed and the Sky report is not going to help Reform with their pro Putin, racist and misogynistic views
Time for conservatives to wake up and vote for the party to defend it from these vile views and characters
Or, as a radical alternative, they might consider voting for a Party that has not fed off or tried to cash in on that theme.
That would actually give them quite a wide choice.
The danger is Reform out polls the conservative party and then Farage becomes the voice of the opposition
Meaningless unless they actually beat them on seat numbers - which they won't even if they outpoll them.
If Biden died or was taken seriously ill in Hospital then irrespective of an individual state saying we cannot change the ballot, the fact is they would have to and the right wing Supreme Court would back that view. There will be probably be an Open convention and the way would be open for Gavin Newsome. If there is a capable and competent Democratic in the Southern states he/she would be a good alternative choice..
Sky news showing a visibly angry Rishi Sunak condemning and actually saying the racist slur against him by the Reform volunteer
Apparently the police are now investigating whether an offence has been committed and the Sky report is not going to help Reform with highlighting their pro Putin, racist and misogynistic views
Time for conservatives to wake up and vote for the party to defend it from these vile views and characters
Sunak has never looked more authentic. That is genuine anger - and he is right to speak out as he has. However, this is also the bloke who has spent the last couple of years snuggling up to Reform voters and who was happy to take millions from Frank Hester. If he had taken a different path when he had the chance things may have turned out very differently for him.
For those panicking about Biden (and I regret to say I'm joining that camp)... I think the next President market offers some reasonable odds.
For instance if you think Biden may choose to stand down (or be forced to)... you can get 26/1 on Kamala Harris winning. Or 600/1 on Buttigieg.
Is there a mechanism for someone other than Kamala Harris to take over?
The mechanism is a vote of delegates to the national convention. Which is in the middle of August.
How you persuade several thousand individuals chosen largely on the basis of a record of loyalty to Joe Biden is something for which a known mechanism doesn't exit.
Regardless of their loyalty, aren't most mandated to pick Biden? They're not free agents. The convention selects Biden unless Biden pulls out... I think.
As I understand it the DNC could just change the rules. I don't think there's anything to stop them just choosing the Democrat candidate themselves.
As predicted. The Dems will fall into line. Biden stays. So all this has done is massively damage him - even as he stays the candidate
Helplessly bad. But it’s kinda what they deserve after all their lies for two years - “he’s always stammered”, “he’s amazing in private”, “he’s sharper than ever and wears adult diapers for fun”
Nah. It’s not even 10am the morning after. Biden won’t be running, they just need the last bit of the fix to overlook Harris too before the coup de grace.
That’s what I thought a few hours ago. But after contemplating - and seeing the first signs of wilful self-delusion “he wasn’t that bad really”, “ok he couldn’t form any words for an hour on live TV but he’s got a cold” I am fairly sure they will rationalise themselves to keeping him
If it was EASY to replace him then Yes. He’d be gone tonight. But he apparently wants to stay and so does his wife and all the replacements are problematic
However you may be right. Confronted with the horror of a likely Trump victory they may be galvanised
Its compelling in a macabre way
It's too early to know.
A lot of people in the party have to do a lot of talking with each other.
Maybe we will have a clearer idea by end of the weekend?
They can't just change the ballots at this stage.......the red states won't allow it......
Doesn't matter.
Remember you don't elect the President, you elect electors. The Biden electors would just vote for AN Other in the Electoral College.
And - btw - the ballot probably shouldn't be printed anyway until after the Convention, when someone officially becomes the candidate.
Folks go onto iPlayer and get with the yoooof on the Woodsies Stage. Kenya Grace. So good.
You wanna know where the real pulse is? Now’s your chance but be quick.
lol. Glasto hasn’t been the pulse of the country since about 1995. It’s a lot of wealthy middle aged people pretending to be young - like you
And there is absolutely nothing wrong with that. I hope the sun shines and you all have a blast. But if you want to know what young Britain thinks I suggest TikTok over Shepton Mallett
Sky news showing a visibly angry Rishi Sunak condemning and actually saying the racist slur against him by the Reform volunteer
Apparently the police are now investigating whether an offence has been committed and the Sky report is not going to help Reform with their pro Putin, racist and misogynistic views
Time for conservatives to wake up and vote for the party to defend it from these vile views and characters
Or, as a radical alternative, they might consider voting for a Party that has not fed off or tried to cash in on that theme.
That would actually give them quite a wide choice.
The danger is Reform out polls the conservative party and then Farage becomes the voice of the opposition
I believe he has had the most appearances of any politico on BBC QT in this century, quite frankly the airtime he is given is a disgrace. The media are fully entitled to choose who they interview but he seems to be able to summon media like flies to shXT, this is a party which has never won anything except about 6 council seats.... (BXP/UKIP are not the same). Quite frankly his command of the media is disproportionate and dangerous
For those panicking about Biden (and I regret to say I'm joining that camp)... I think the next President market offers some reasonable odds.
For instance if you think Biden may choose to stand down (or be forced to)... you can get 26/1 on Kamala Harris winning. Or 600/1 on Buttigieg.
Is there a mechanism for someone other than Kamala Harris to take over?
The mechanism is a vote of delegates to the national convention. Which is in the middle of August.
How you persuade several thousand individuals chosen largely on the basis of a record of loyalty to Joe Biden is something for which a known mechanism doesn't exit.
Regardless of their loyalty, aren't most mandated to pick Biden? They're not free agents. The convention selects Biden unless Biden pulls out... I think.
As I understand it the DNC could just change the rules. I don't think there's anything to stop them just choosing the Democrat candidate themselves.
Folks go onto iPlayer and get with the yoooof on the Woodsies Stage. Kenya Grace. So good.
You wanna know where the real pulse is? Now’s your chance but be quick.
lol. Glasto hasn’t been the pulse of the country since about 1995. It’s a lot of wealthy middle aged people pretending to be young - like you
And there is absolutely nothing wrong with that. I hope the sun shines and you all have a blast. But if you want to know what young Britain thinks I suggest TikTok over Shepton Mallett
My 26 year old daughter is there with her mates. They've just had an absolute blast watching Squeeze.
That analysis I linked claims that the democrats have just 40 days to do this. A new candidate has to be on the Ohio ballot by August 4
Is that true? I don’t know the mechanics of American electoral law - but if that is true I suggest this is probably impossible. There’s not enough time
Sky news showing a visibly angry Rishi Sunak condemning and actually saying the racist slur against him by the Reform volunteer
Apparently the police are now investigating whether an offence has been committed and the Sky report is not going to help Reform with their pro Putin, racist and misogynistic views
Time for conservatives to wake up and vote for the party to defend it from these vile views and characters
Or, as a radical alternative, they might consider voting for a Party that has not fed off or tried to cash in on that theme.
That would actually give them quite a wide choice.
The danger is Reform out polls the conservative party and then Farage becomes the voice of the opposition
Meaningless unless they actually beat them on seat numbers - which they won't even if they outpoll them.
which they also won't do.
If keeping Reform out was really someone's top priority, they wouldn't just blanket advocate voting Conservative. That's the best bet in some seats, but seats like Ashfield and Gt Yarmouth, probably not.
Sky news showing a visibly angry Rishi Sunak condemning and actually saying the racist slur against him by the Reform volunteer
Apparently the police are now investigating whether an offence has been committed and the Sky report is not going to help Reform with their pro Putin, racist and misogynistic views
Time for conservatives to wake up and vote for the party to defend it from these vile views and characters
Or, as a radical alternative, they might consider voting for a Party that has not fed off or tried to cash in on that theme.
That would actually give them quite a wide choice.
The danger is Reform out polls the conservative party and then Farage becomes the voice of the opposition
Meaningless unless they actually beat them on seat numbers - which they won't even if they outpoll them.
which they also won't do.
If keeping Reform out was really someone's top priority, they wouldn't just blanket advocate voting Conservative. That's the best bet in some seats, but seats like Ashfield and Gt Yarmouth, probably not.
Sky news showing a visibly angry Rishi Sunak condemning and actually saying the racist slur against him by the Reform volunteer
Apparently the police are now investigating whether an offence has been committed and the Sky report is not going to help Reform with highlighting their pro Putin, racist and misogynistic views
Time for conservatives to wake up and vote for the party to defend it from these vile views and characters
Sunak has never looked more authentic. That is genuine anger - and he is right to speak out as he has. However, this is also the bloke who has spent the last couple of years snuggling up to Reform voters and who was happy to take millions from Frank Hester. If he had taken a different path when he had the chance things may have turned out very differently for him.
There’s another universe where Sunak took on the right, ended the culture wars, exposed the Rwanda scheme as the farce it is and returned to Cameron/May pragmatic conservative politics. I think there might have been conservative votes in an Thatcherite economic pragmatic approach to the EU and a return to the vote blue go green agenda.
Folks go onto iPlayer and get with the yoooof on the Woodsies Stage. Kenya Grace. So good.
You wanna know where the real pulse is? Now’s your chance but be quick.
lol. Glasto hasn’t been the pulse of the country since about 1995. It’s a lot of wealthy middle aged people pretending to be young - like you
And there is absolutely nothing wrong with that. I hope the sun shines and you all have a blast. But if you want to know what young Britain thinks I suggest TikTok over Shepton Mallett
My 26 year old daughter is there with her mates. They've just had an absolute blast watching Squeeze.
Enviable. Also squeeze are great - but that in itself says something about both glasto and modern pop music. They heyday of squeeze was 40 years ago
I went to glasto in the 1980s and if they’d said “now we’ve got a band from the 1940s” everyone would have rioted in angry amazement
A good sunny Glasto is a brilliant thing. I’ve done two of them. I’ve also done a really really rainy one which was ok because we took loads of drugs but we fled on day two (I had free press tickets so I didn’t care)
That analysis I linked claims that the democrats have just 40 days to do this. A new candidate has to be on the Ohio ballot by August 4
Is that true? I don’t know the mechanics of American electoral law - but if that is true I suggest this is probably impossible. There’s not enough time
Well Biden himself might not be on ballot in Ohio. Dems might have to just write Ohio off if it comes to that.
Sky news showing a visibly angry Rishi Sunak condemning and actually saying the racist slur against him by the Reform volunteer
Apparently the police are now investigating whether an offence has been committed and the Sky report is not going to help Reform with their pro Putin, racist and misogynistic views
Time for conservatives to wake up and vote for the party to defend it from these vile views and characters
Or, as a radical alternative, they might consider voting for a Party that has not fed off or tried to cash in on that theme.
That would actually give them quite a wide choice.
The danger is Reform out polls the conservative party and then Farage becomes the voice of the opposition
Meaningless unless they actually beat them on seat numbers - which they won't even if they outpoll them.
which they also won't do.
If keeping Reform out was really someone's top priority, they wouldn't just blanket advocate voting Conservative. That's the best bet in some seats, but seats like Ashfield and Gt Yarmouth, probably not.
I suspect you are right but at the moment I am not sure. Certainly not enough to bet on it.
Folks go onto iPlayer and get with the yoooof on the Woodsies Stage. Kenya Grace. So good.
You wanna know where the real pulse is? Now’s your chance but be quick.
lol. Glasto hasn’t been the pulse of the country since about 1995. It’s a lot of wealthy middle aged people pretending to be young - like you
And there is absolutely nothing wrong with that. I hope the sun shines and you all have a blast. But if you want to know what young Britain thinks I suggest TikTok over Shepton Mallett
My 26 year old daughter is there with her mates. They've just had an absolute blast watching Squeeze.
Enviable. Also squeeze are great - but that in itself says something about both glasto and modern pop music. They heyday of squeeze was 40 years ago
I went to glasto in the 1980s and if they’d said “now we’ve got a band from the 1940s” everyone would have rioted in angry amazement
A good sunny Glasto is a brilliant thing. I’ve done two of them. I’ve also done a really really rainy one which was ok because we took loads of drugs but we fled on day two (I had free press tickets so I didn’t care)
Bit shite for the eels and frogs downstream, though.
That analysis I linked claims that the democrats have just 40 days to do this. A new candidate has to be on the Ohio ballot by August 4
Is that true? I don’t know the mechanics of American electoral law - but if that is true I suggest this is probably impossible. There’s not enough time
Well Biden himself might not be on ballot in Ohio. Dems might have to just write Ohio off if it comes to that.
So Ohio is not the clincher that guy claims? Can be Dems afford to write off a fairly big state like that?
Sky news showing a visibly angry Rishi Sunak condemning and actually saying the racist slur against him by the Reform volunteer
Apparently the police are now investigating whether an offence has been committed and the Sky report is not going to help Reform with their pro Putin, racist and misogynistic views
Time for conservatives to wake up and vote for the party to defend it from these vile views and characters
Or, as a radical alternative, they might consider voting for a Party that has not fed off or tried to cash in on that theme.
That would actually give them quite a wide choice.
The danger is Reform out polls the conservative party and then Farage becomes the voice of the opposition
Meaningless unless they actually beat them on seat numbers - which they won't even if they outpoll them.
which they also won't do.
If keeping Reform out was really someone's top priority, they wouldn't just blanket advocate voting Conservative. That's the best bet in some seats, but seats like Ashfield and Gt Yarmouth, probably not.
I suspect you are right but at the moment I am not sure. Certainly not enough to bet on it.
Take a chance! The general uncertainty makes the price attractive.
Folks go onto iPlayer and get with the yoooof on the Woodsies Stage. Kenya Grace. So good.
You wanna know where the real pulse is? Now’s your chance but be quick.
lol. Glasto hasn’t been the pulse of the country since about 1995. It’s a lot of wealthy middle aged people pretending to be young - like you
And there is absolutely nothing wrong with that. I hope the sun shines and you all have a blast. But if you want to know what young Britain thinks I suggest TikTok over Shepton Mallett
My 26 year old daughter is there with her mates. They've just had an absolute blast watching Squeeze.
Enviable. Also squeeze are great - but that in itself says something about both glasto and modern pop music. They heyday of squeeze was 40 years ago
I went to glasto in the 1980s and if they’d said “now we’ve got a band from the 1940s” everyone would have rioted in angry amazement
A good sunny Glasto is a brilliant thing. I’ve done two of them. I’ve also done a really really rainy one which was ok because we took loads of drugs but we fled on day two (I had free press tickets so I didn’t care)
Bit shite for the eels and frogs downstream, though.
Time of their lives I would have thought. It's not easy being green.
That analysis I linked claims that the democrats have just 40 days to do this. A new candidate has to be on the Ohio ballot by August 4
Is that true? I don’t know the mechanics of American electoral law - but if that is true I suggest this is probably impossible. There’s not enough time
Well Biden himself might not be on ballot in Ohio. Dems might have to just write Ohio off if it comes to that.
So Ohio is not the clincher that guy claims? Can be Dems afford to write off a fairly big state like that?
Ohio is now solid Trump, it voted for Trump in 2016 and 2020
That analysis I linked claims that the democrats have just 40 days to do this. A new candidate has to be on the Ohio ballot by August 4
Is that true? I don’t know the mechanics of American electoral law - but if that is true I suggest this is probably impossible. There’s not enough time
Well Biden himself might not be on ballot in Ohio. Dems might have to just write Ohio off if it comes to that.
So Ohio is not the clincher that guy claims? Can be Dems afford to write off a fairly big state like that?
Ohio hasn't gone Dem since Obama. It's already gone.
Sky news showing a visibly angry Rishi Sunak condemning and actually saying the racist slur against him by the Reform volunteer
Apparently the police are now investigating whether an offence has been committed and the Sky report is not going to help Reform with highlighting their pro Putin, racist and misogynistic views
Time for conservatives to wake up and vote for the party to defend it from these vile views and characters
Sunak has never looked more authentic. That is genuine anger - and he is right to speak out as he has. However, this is also the bloke who has spent the last couple of years snuggling up to Reform voters and who was happy to take millions from Frank Hester. If he had taken a different path when he had the chance things may have turned out very differently for him.
There’s another universe where Sunak took on the right, ended the culture wars, exposed the Rwanda scheme as the farce it is and returned to Cameron/May pragmatic conservative politics. I think there might have been conservative votes in an Thatcherite economic pragmatic approach to the EU and a return to the vote blue go green agenda.
It’s tragic he didn’t go down that path.
How could Sunak have ended the culture war going on between people like JK Rowling and the Labour party?
For those panicking about Biden (and I regret to say I'm joining that camp)... I think the next President market offers some reasonable odds.
For instance if you think Biden may choose to stand down (or be forced to)... you can get 26/1 on Kamala Harris winning. Or 600/1 on Buttigieg.
Is there a mechanism for someone other than Kamala Harris to take over?
The mechanism is a vote of delegates to the national convention. Which is in the middle of August.
How you persuade several thousand individuals chosen largely on the basis of a record of loyalty to Joe Biden is something for which a known mechanism doesn't exit.
Regardless of their loyalty, aren't most mandated to pick Biden? They're not free agents. The convention selects Biden unless Biden pulls out... I think.
As I understand it the DNC could just change the rules. I don't think there's anything to stop them just choosing the Democrat candidate themselves.
Don't rule changes require a DNC floor vote ?
Not sure, but I'm talking about the Democratic National Committee. tbh I have no idea how they operate, was hoping someone might
Given Biden's dementia and if Trump is jailed in July, sitting pretty I imagine. An A++list Democrat name but with some of his policies solid MAGA.
If the Democrats replace Biden with Newsom or Harris at their convention and Trump is jailed and the GOP establishment try and draft Haley or Romney or DeSantis to replace him at their convention too that would be the dream for Kennedy
For those panicking about Biden (and I regret to say I'm joining that camp)... I think the next President market offers some reasonable odds.
For instance if you think Biden may choose to stand down (or be forced to)... you can get 26/1 on Kamala Harris winning. Or 600/1 on Buttigieg.
Is there a mechanism for someone other than Kamala Harris to take over?
The mechanism is a vote of delegates to the national convention. Which is in the middle of August.
How you persuade several thousand individuals chosen largely on the basis of a record of loyalty to Joe Biden is something for which a known mechanism doesn't exit.
Regardless of their loyalty, aren't most mandated to pick Biden? They're not free agents. The convention selects Biden unless Biden pulls out... I think.
As I understand it the DNC could just change the rules. I don't think there's anything to stop them just choosing the Democrat candidate themselves.
Don't rule changes require a DNC floor vote ?
Not sure, but I'm talking about the Democratic National Committee. tbh I have no idea how they operate, was hoping someone might
I don't think these attacks on Reform will work. The aim is to try and destroy them by revealing their 'true nature' but it just keeps getting shrugged off by Farage. So the attacks fail, and the by product is that the discourse is normalised. It feels like the overton window shifting.
Comparing the Nom to WH markets to get the implied chance of Biden beating Trump if he doesn't step down ... 30%.
Don't know what people make of that. Hard to say, isn't it. It's a very tricky thing to assess.
About right/not lower, I'd say. He's still the not Trump candidate and even if you think he'll be ditched or Pres in name only then you have KH or much of the current team who are also not Trump.
But, I don't really know and I'm looking through a UK (relatively sane) lens, which I suspect makes me underestimate Trump's chances overall, which is why I'm keeping out of it for now. I don't think Biden would lose big, but I do think he'd struggle to win.
Sky news showing a visibly angry Rishi Sunak condemning and actually saying the racist slur against him by the Reform volunteer
Apparently the police are now investigating whether an offence has been committed and the Sky report is not going to help Reform with their pro Putin, racist and misogynistic views
Time for conservatives to wake up and vote for the party to defend it from these vile views and characters
Or, as a radical alternative, they might consider voting for a Party that has not fed off or tried to cash in on that theme.
That would actually give them quite a wide choice.
The danger is Reform out polls the conservative party and then Farage becomes the voice of the opposition
I believe he has had the most appearances of any politico on BBC QT in this century, quite frankly the airtime he is given is a disgrace. The media are fully entitled to choose who they interview but he seems to be able to summon media like flies to shXT, this is a party which has never won anything except about 6 council seats.... (BXP/UKIP are not the same). Quite frankly his command of the media is disproportionate and dangerous
Absolutely agree. It almost makes you wonder if those sympathetic to Labour at the BBC want him on so that he can help degrade the Tory Party even further than they have managed on their own. The useful idiots manage to push a modern day Oswald Mosley further into the gullible public consciousness to the detriment of our democracy.
Sky news showing a visibly angry Rishi Sunak condemning and actually saying the racist slur against him by the Reform volunteer
Apparently the police are now investigating whether an offence has been committed and the Sky report is not going to help Reform with highlighting their pro Putin, racist and misogynistic views
Time for conservatives to wake up and vote for the party to defend it from these vile views and characters
Sunak has never looked more authentic. That is genuine anger - and he is right to speak out as he has. However, this is also the bloke who has spent the last couple of years snuggling up to Reform voters and who was happy to take millions from Frank Hester. If he had taken a different path when he had the chance things may have turned out very differently for him.
There’s another universe where Sunak took on the right, ended the culture wars, exposed the Rwanda scheme as the farce it is and returned to Cameron/May pragmatic conservative politics. I think there might have been conservative votes in an Thatcherite economic pragmatic approach to the EU and a return to the vote blue go green agenda.
It’s tragic he didn’t go down that path.
And why on earth would someone like me vote for that soppy Blairite shite. That’s why they are in the mess they are. They are a social Democrat party pretending to be conservative
You are suggesting they do MORE of that and it will solve their problems. lol
Sky news showing a visibly angry Rishi Sunak condemning and actually saying the racist slur against him by the Reform volunteer
Apparently the police are now investigating whether an offence has been committed and the Sky report is not going to help Reform with their pro Putin, racist and misogynistic views
Time for conservatives to wake up and vote for the party to defend it from these vile views and characters
Or, as a radical alternative, they might consider voting for a Party that has not fed off or tried to cash in on that theme.
That would actually give them quite a wide choice.
The danger is Reform out polls the conservative party and then Farage becomes the voice of the opposition
Perhaps they might vote on principle, rather than trying to game the system.
That analysis I linked claims that the democrats have just 40 days to do this. A new candidate has to be on the Ohio ballot by August 4
Is that true? I don’t know the mechanics of American electoral law - but if that is true I suggest this is probably impossible. There’s not enough time
Well Biden himself might not be on ballot in Ohio. Dems might have to just write Ohio off if it comes to that.
So Ohio is not the clincher that guy claims? Can be Dems afford to write off a fairly big state like that?
Ohio hasn't gone Dem since Obama. It's already gone.
That's right the realignment of American politics means Ohio is a safe Trump state. It's just too wwc
Sky news showing a visibly angry Rishi Sunak condemning and actually saying the racist slur against him by the Reform volunteer
Apparently the police are now investigating whether an offence has been committed and the Sky report is not going to help Reform with highlighting their pro Putin, racist and misogynistic views
Time for conservatives to wake up and vote for the party to defend it from these vile views and characters
Sunak has never looked more authentic. That is genuine anger - and he is right to speak out as he has. However, this is also the bloke who has spent the last couple of years snuggling up to Reform voters and who was happy to take millions from Frank Hester. If he had taken a different path when he had the chance things may have turned out very differently for him.
There’s another universe where Sunak took on the right, ended the culture wars, exposed the Rwanda scheme as the farce it is and returned to Cameron/May pragmatic conservative politics. I think there might have been conservative votes in an Thatcherite economic pragmatic approach to the EU and a return to the vote blue go green agenda.
It’s tragic he didn’t go down that path.
How could Sunak have ended the culture war going on between people like JK Rowling and the Labour party?
He might have cited how proud he was that the Tories introduced gay marriage, promoted tolerance as a conservative value and generally lowered the temperature. You know, political leadership.
Comments
If it was EASY to replace him then Yes. He’d be gone tonight. But he apparently wants to stay and so does his wife and all the replacements are problematic
However you may be right. Confronted with the horror of a likely Trump victory they may be galvanised
Its compelling in a macabre way
No evidence any other Dem polls better than Biden v Trump either
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pf91xEsaw8Q
45-second video starring pb's favourite soon to be former MP.
A lot of people in the party have to do a lot of talking with each other.
Maybe we will have a clearer idea by end of the weekend?
The problem is simply, would Kamala Harris win? The polling says she'd lose. That's not necessarily predictive, but it's the only data we've got.
In any case this isn't ultimately up to The Democrats, it's up to Joe Biden.
Apart from Sherry and G and T doesn't look much more than MoE.
That seems one of the less likely scenarios to me, but WDIK ?
Apparently the police are now investigating whether an offence has been committed and the Sky report is not going to help Reform with highlighting their pro Putin, racist and misogynistic views
Time for conservatives to wake up and vote for the party to defend it from these vile views and characters
It does arguably “solve” an insoluble problem.
And you could argue either makes a good target for those so minded
That would actually give them quite a wide choice.
Soooooo good. Love her.
She's the incumbent VP. She's not senile.
And it's not like Trump doesn't have his own issues.
I would buy her into the high teens. (Indeed, I think she is far more likely to be the candidate than Michelle Obama or Gavin Newsom.)
I condemn racism and always have, but the only way the conservative party has a chance of remaining s one nation party is to ensure Reform are soundly beaten at the ballot box
But it's neither.
Also points to the dereliction of democracy that Joe Biden has clearly NOT been running the country for the last two years
https://x.com/twobitidiot/status/1806609483558191168?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
I don’t know why people think it’s hard not to pick Harris. You simply have a vote at the convention where she doesn’t win. There. Done. If the identity politics crowd don’t like who’s picked, they can always vote for the open racist in Nov.
Would it scupper them or would he claim martyrdom?
I think they owe it to the country to actually put someone with all their faculties forward, be that Harris or AN Other. Regardless of whether they can stop Trump or not.
Biden will not stop Trump now. So they need to give someone else a go.
Basically, Biden goes or he doesn't. If he doesn't, it's Harris or someone else. The exact pathway doesn't matter as much. If you're going with Harris, it makes sense to make her President a.s.a.p., because then she can go around looking presidential. The Republicans playing games over nominating a new VP looks bad for them, not the Dems.
Second, am confused by statement that, "Naomi Long [APNI] could be depending on the SF voters and transfers". The voters I get; but transfers? Thought that Westminster elections in NI were like rest of UK = FPTP?
Whether he is senile or not, he continues to not be Donald Trump.
Don't know what people make of that. Hard to say, isn't it. It's a very tricky thing to assess.
Not all of it policy led is my suspicion.
Clearly I pray I’m wrong but America has an awful lot of guns, a history of assassinations, and plenty of angry or bad or desperate people
Remember you don't elect the President, you elect electors. The Biden electors would just vote for AN Other in the Electoral College.
And - btw - the ballot probably shouldn't be printed anyway until after the Convention, when someone officially becomes the candidate.
You wanna know where the real pulse is? Now’s your chance but be quick.
So the Democrats need another Not Trump candidate.
There will be probably be an Open convention and the way would be open for Gavin Newsome. If there is a capable and competent Democratic in the Southern states he/she would be a good alternative choice..
And there is absolutely nothing wrong with that. I hope the sun shines and you all have a blast. But if you want to know what young Britain thinks I suggest TikTok over Shepton Mallett
I believe he has had the most appearances of any politico on BBC QT in this century, quite frankly the airtime he is given is a disgrace. The media are fully entitled to choose who they interview but he seems to be able to summon media like flies to shXT, this is a party which has never won anything except about 6 council seats.... (BXP/UKIP are not the same). Quite frankly his command of the media is disproportionate and dangerous
Is that true? I don’t know the mechanics of American electoral law - but if that is true I suggest this is probably impossible. There’s not enough time
If keeping Reform out was really someone's top priority, they wouldn't just blanket advocate voting Conservative. That's the best bet in some seats, but seats like Ashfield and Gt Yarmouth, probably not.
It’s tragic he didn’t go down that path.
I went to glasto in the 1980s and if they’d said “now we’ve got a band from the 1940s” everyone would have rioted in angry amazement
A good sunny Glasto is a brilliant thing. I’ve done two of them. I’ve also done a really really rainy one which was ok because we took loads of drugs but we fled on day two (I had free press tickets so I didn’t care)
If the Democrats replace Biden with Newsom or Harris at their convention and Trump is jailed and the GOP establishment try and draft Haley or Romney or DeSantis to replace him at their convention too that would be the dream for Kennedy
But, I don't really know and I'm looking through a UK (relatively sane) lens, which I suspect makes me underestimate Trump's chances overall, which is why I'm keeping out of it for now. I don't think Biden would lose big, but I do think he'd struggle to win.
You are suggesting they do MORE of that and it will solve their problems. lol
It's just an idea.
It's just too wwc