Northern Ireland [Westminster] Constituencies : Part Two (Key Seats) – politicalbetting.com
Comments
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I hear u-know-who used to stomp around Munich in the 20s boasting about single handedly destroying the antisemitic, nationalist German Workers Party.Farooq said:I almost single-handedly destroyed the British National party claims Farage.
Yes mate. I single-handedly destroyed a lamb korma last night. It's now part of me. Every time I burp the room smells of it.1 -
It's too early to know.Leon said:
That’s what I thought a few hours ago. But after contemplating - and seeing the first signs of wilful self-delusion “he wasn’t that bad really”, “ok he couldn’t form any words for an hour on live TV but he’s got a cold” I am fairly sure they will rationalise themselves to keeping himmoonshine said:
Nah. It’s not even 10am the morning after. Biden won’t be running, they just need the last bit of the fix to overlook Harris too before the coup de grace.Leon said:As predicted. The Dems will fall into line. Biden stays. So all this has done is massively damage him - even as he stays the candidate
Helplessly bad. But it’s kinda what they deserve after all their lies for two years - “he’s always stammered”, “he’s amazing in private”, “he’s sharper than ever and wears adult diapers for fun”
If it was EASY to replace him then Yes. He’d be gone tonight. But he apparently wants to stay and so does his wife and all the replacements are problematic
However you may be right. Confronted with the horror of a likely Trump victory they may be galvanised
Its compelling in a macabre way
A lot of people in the party have to do a lot of talking with each other.
Maybe we will have a clearer idea by end of the weekend?0 -
On C I don't think the VP vacancy thing is a problem, it would clearly be the GOP's fault and the solution would be the election.PedestrianRock said:
Here’s an issue with the pathwaysRoger said:
Is there a mechanism for someone other than Kamala Harris to take over?rkrkrk said:For those panicking about Biden (and I regret to say I'm joining that camp)... I think the next President market offers some reasonable odds.
For instance if you think Biden may choose to stand down (or be forced to)... you can get 26/1 on Kamala Harris winning. Or 600/1 on Buttigieg.
A) Keep Biden/Harris - bad for the reasons outlined
Keep Biden as President to see out his term, but the 2024 ticket is Harris/new VP - Easy attack line for Trump “the Democrats are being irresponsible, leaving us with a lame duck President and making our country unsafe!”
C) Elevate Harris now, choose new VP - Harris seen as a bad candidate. New VP might not get confirmed by House pre election. Trump can say “no VP, our country is exposed!”
D) Ditch both Biden and Harris on the ticket, but keep them in power. Black female voters will see Harris as passed over, may annoy them a lot. Biden/Harris seen as lame ducks for Trump to attack. Hard to pick suitable new pair.
E) Ditch Biden now, elevate Harris, but Harris not on ticket. Same problem as above, unless you can convince Michelle Obama and you think that’s a good strategy.
It’s very very difficult. I sympathise with them not sorting this out sooner. Personally I think you either try for Michelle, or you go all in on Kamala. Sticking with Joe at this point feels very very dicey.
The problem is simply, would Kamala Harris win? The polling says she'd lose. That's not necessarily predictive, but it's the only data we've got.
In any case this isn't ultimately up to The Democrats, it's up to Joe Biden.0 -
It’s because of our lower drink drive limits. Also Scottish “Best” is 3.2%, so probably counts as shandy!sarissa said:
Best SNP score is for shandy drinkers? I would have thought they would be on hard stuff by now.Farooq said:
I'm a white wine drinker. I'm also known to be a filthy centrist. Judging from that graph, I've found my people.CarlottaVance said:Up the sherry drinkers!
NEW: A poll has been released showing the UK’s voting intention by alcoholic drink preference
https://x.com/politlcsuk/status/1806672615769075805?s=46&t=eiaG-Nju8t7zgfE3oCmAHA0 -
It is the middle aged and pensioners Tories need to rebuild from, young people never vote Tory anywayeek said:
Except a lot of younger people simply don't drink nowadays - it's just not the sales pitch it used to be...HYUFD said:
Cheapest beer and best snooker and karaoke in town Con Clubs, if the Tories want to revive in opposition they could start rebuilding from thereIanB2 said:
Most patrons of Conservative Clubs are elderly alcoholics who start their day’s drinking before lunchtime and are most unlikely to make it to the polling station at all. Think, Leon, in a decade or so’s time.LloydBanks said:
The Conservative Club in South Croydon hadn't even bothered putting up a Philp board when I drove past the other dayMisterBedfordshire said:Saw my first Tory posters today. Three of them. All on the railings of the town Conservative Club balcony.
They also had a union flag which for some reason was flying at half mast.0 -
The prosecco section includes other sparkling wins too.Pulpstar said:
You're misreading it - it's not Prosecco, it's cider that's second.rcs1000 said:
That is a fascinating poll (really).CarlottaVance said:Up the sherry drinkers!
NEW: A poll has been released showing the UK’s voting intention by alcoholic drink preference
https://x.com/politlcsuk/status/1806672615769075805?s=46&t=eiaG-Nju8t7zgfE3oCmAHA
The two best drinking demographics for Reform are Prosecco and shandy.
Think about that for a second: an unholy alliance between people who think that lager is just not sweet enough, and people who like filthy foreign fizz.
Apart from Sherry and G and T doesn't look much more than MoE.0 -
My head canon says that as people socialise online more, they need alcohol less. The only time I drink is in social situations, but remove the social element and I just don't drink alcohol at all. I sometimes get paid in bottles of wine (long story) and I have to give them to plumbers etc just to get rid of them. The wine, not the plumbers.eek said:
Except a lot of younger people simply don't drink nowadays - it's just not the sales pitch it used to be...HYUFD said:
Cheapest beer and best snooker and karaoke in town Con Clubs, if the Tories want to revive in opposition they could start rebuilding from thereIanB2 said:
Most patrons of Conservative Clubs are elderly alcoholics who start their day’s drinking before lunchtime and are most unlikely to make it to the polling station at all. Think, Leon, in a decade or so’s time.LloydBanks said:
The Conservative Club in South Croydon hadn't even bothered putting up a Philp board when I drove past the other dayMisterBedfordshire said:Saw my first Tory posters today. Three of them. All on the railings of the town Conservative Club balcony.
They also had a union flag which for some reason was flying at half mast.0 -
Trump will win and destroy democracy in the USA and poor old Joe won’t even know.Leon said:
That’s what I thought a few hours ago. But after contemplating - and seeing the first signs of wilful self-delusion “he wasn’t that bad really”, “ok he couldn’t form any words for an hour on live TV but he’s got a cold” I am fairly sure they will rationalise themselves to keeping himmoonshine said:
Nah. It’s not even 10am the morning after. Biden won’t be running, they just need the last bit of the fix to overlook Harris too before the coup de grace.Leon said:As predicted. The Dems will fall into line. Biden stays. So all this has done is massively damage him - even as he stays the candidate
Helplessly bad. But it’s kinda what they deserve after all their lies for two years - “he’s always stammered”, “he’s amazing in private”, “he’s sharper than ever and wears adult diapers for fun”
If it was EASY to replace him then Yes. He’d be gone tonight. But he apparently wants to stay and so does his wife and all the replacements are problematic
However you may be right. Confronted with the horror of a likely Trump victory they may be galvanised
Its compelling in a macabre way0 -
Not so sure. I fear an assassination may be at hand.Fairliered said:
Trump will win and destroy democracy in the USA and poor old Joe won’t even know.Leon said:
That’s what I thought a few hours ago. But after contemplating - and seeing the first signs of wilful self-delusion “he wasn’t that bad really”, “ok he couldn’t form any words for an hour on live TV but he’s got a cold” I am fairly sure they will rationalise themselves to keeping himmoonshine said:
Nah. It’s not even 10am the morning after. Biden won’t be running, they just need the last bit of the fix to overlook Harris too before the coup de grace.Leon said:As predicted. The Dems will fall into line. Biden stays. So all this has done is massively damage him - even as he stays the candidate
Helplessly bad. But it’s kinda what they deserve after all their lies for two years - “he’s always stammered”, “he’s amazing in private”, “he’s sharper than ever and wears adult diapers for fun”
If it was EASY to replace him then Yes. He’d be gone tonight. But he apparently wants to stay and so does his wife and all the replacements are problematic
However you may be right. Confronted with the horror of a likely Trump victory they may be galvanised
Its compelling in a macabre way0 -
What about Buckfast?Fairliered said:
It’s because of our lower drink drive limits. Also Scottish “Best” is 3.2%, so probably counts as shandy!sarissa said:
Best SNP score is for shandy drinkers? I would have thought they would be on hard stuff by now.Farooq said:
I'm a white wine drinker. I'm also known to be a filthy centrist. Judging from that graph, I've found my people.CarlottaVance said:Up the sherry drinkers!
NEW: A poll has been released showing the UK’s voting intention by alcoholic drink preference
https://x.com/politlcsuk/status/1806672615769075805?s=46&t=eiaG-Nju8t7zgfE3oCmAHA0 -
Irrelevant. Under 16s don’t get a vote.Daveyboy1961 said:
What about Buckfast?Fairliered said:
It’s because of our lower drink drive limits. Also Scottish “Best” is 3.2%, so probably counts as shandy!sarissa said:
Best SNP score is for shandy drinkers? I would have thought they would be on hard stuff by now.Farooq said:
I'm a white wine drinker. I'm also known to be a filthy centrist. Judging from that graph, I've found my people.CarlottaVance said:Up the sherry drinkers!
NEW: A poll has been released showing the UK’s voting intention by alcoholic drink preference
https://x.com/politlcsuk/status/1806672615769075805?s=46&t=eiaG-Nju8t7zgfE3oCmAHA2 -
As a young person I have yet to be convinced that holds true once you control for religion.eek said:
Except a lot of younger people simply don't drink nowadays - it's just not the sales pitch it used to be...HYUFD said:
Cheapest beer and best snooker and karaoke in town Con Clubs, if the Tories want to revive in opposition they could start rebuilding from thereIanB2 said:
Most patrons of Conservative Clubs are elderly alcoholics who start their day’s drinking before lunchtime and are most unlikely to make it to the polling station at all. Think, Leon, in a decade or so’s time.LloydBanks said:
The Conservative Club in South Croydon hadn't even bothered putting up a Philp board when I drove past the other dayMisterBedfordshire said:Saw my first Tory posters today. Three of them. All on the railings of the town Conservative Club balcony.
They also had a union flag which for some reason was flying at half mast.0 -
Or two assassinationsCicero said:
Not so sure. I fear an assassination may be at hand.Fairliered said:
Trump will win and destroy democracy in the USA and poor old Joe won’t even know.Leon said:
That’s what I thought a few hours ago. But after contemplating - and seeing the first signs of wilful self-delusion “he wasn’t that bad really”, “ok he couldn’t form any words for an hour on live TV but he’s got a cold” I am fairly sure they will rationalise themselves to keeping himmoonshine said:
Nah. It’s not even 10am the morning after. Biden won’t be running, they just need the last bit of the fix to overlook Harris too before the coup de grace.Leon said:As predicted. The Dems will fall into line. Biden stays. So all this has done is massively damage him - even as he stays the candidate
Helplessly bad. But it’s kinda what they deserve after all their lies for two years - “he’s always stammered”, “he’s amazing in private”, “he’s sharper than ever and wears adult diapers for fun”
If it was EASY to replace him then Yes. He’d be gone tonight. But he apparently wants to stay and so does his wife and all the replacements are problematic
However you may be right. Confronted with the horror of a likely Trump victory they may be galvanised
Its compelling in a macabre way0 -
.
With the liberal wing of the party in open revolt against the presumptive nominee over Vietnam ?williamglenn said:
There's a risk that an open convention would turn into a repeat of 1968.mwadams said:FPT:
I agree. If the clips packages are making it look "not too bad" for Biden, they are being very, very generous. It was painful to watch last night.FrancisUrquhart said:Pro_Rate....live it was far worse than the highlights. It wasn't a person gets one answer a bit mixed up.
If the Democrats don't get Biden to step aside and maximize any positive publicity they can extract from an Open Convention, the world will be in a very bad place next year.
That seems one of the less likely scenarios to me, but WDIK ?0 -
Sky news showing a visibly angry Rishi Sunak condemning and actually saying the racist slur against him by the Reform volunteer
Apparently the police are now investigating whether an offence has been committed and the Sky report is not going to help Reform with highlighting their pro Putin, racist and misogynistic views
Time for conservatives to wake up and vote for the party to defend it from these vile views and characters
1 -
Actually, joking aside, I would not be surprised if America’s political impasse was resolved with violence. America is a very violent society. Lots of politicians have been shot over the decades
It does arguably “solve” an insoluble problem.
And you could argue either makes a good target for those so minded0 -
Certainly that seems to be true in my granddaughters university groupeek said:
Except a lot of younger people simply don't drink nowadays - it's just not the sales pitch it used to be...HYUFD said:
Cheapest beer and best snooker and karaoke in town Con Clubs, if the Tories want to revive in opposition they could start rebuilding from thereIanB2 said:
Most patrons of Conservative Clubs are elderly alcoholics who start their day’s drinking before lunchtime and are most unlikely to make it to the polling station at all. Think, Leon, in a decade or so’s time.LloydBanks said:
The Conservative Club in South Croydon hadn't even bothered putting up a Philp board when I drove past the other dayMisterBedfordshire said:Saw my first Tory posters today. Three of them. All on the railings of the town Conservative Club balcony.
They also had a union flag which for some reason was flying at half mast.0 -
They can't just change the ballots at this stage.......the red states won't allow it......rottenborough said:
It's too early to know.Leon said:
That’s what I thought a few hours ago. But after contemplating - and seeing the first signs of wilful self-delusion “he wasn’t that bad really”, “ok he couldn’t form any words for an hour on live TV but he’s got a cold” I am fairly sure they will rationalise themselves to keeping himmoonshine said:
Nah. It’s not even 10am the morning after. Biden won’t be running, they just need the last bit of the fix to overlook Harris too before the coup de grace.Leon said:As predicted. The Dems will fall into line. Biden stays. So all this has done is massively damage him - even as he stays the candidate
Helplessly bad. But it’s kinda what they deserve after all their lies for two years - “he’s always stammered”, “he’s amazing in private”, “he’s sharper than ever and wears adult diapers for fun”
If it was EASY to replace him then Yes. He’d be gone tonight. But he apparently wants to stay and so does his wife and all the replacements are problematic
However you may be right. Confronted with the horror of a likely Trump victory they may be galvanised
Its compelling in a macabre way
A lot of people in the party have to do a lot of talking with each other.
Maybe we will have a clearer idea by end of the weekend?0 -
Between the wars my Great Grandfather was a grandee of Llanelli Conservative Club. We're still waiting for the revival in your fortunes and the first Conservative MP. Mind you it was within 5,000 votes in 2019.HYUFD said:
Cheapest beer and best snooker and karaoke in town Con Clubs, if the Tories want to revive in opposition they could start rebuilding from thereIanB2 said:
Most patrons of Conservative Clubs are elderly alcoholics who start their day’s drinking before lunchtime and are most unlikely to make it to the polling station at all. Think, Leon, in a decade or so’s time.LloydBanks said:
The Conservative Club in South Croydon hadn't even bothered putting up a Philp board when I drove past the other dayMisterBedfordshire said:Saw my first Tory posters today. Three of them. All on the railings of the town Conservative Club balcony.
They also had a union flag which for some reason was flying at half mast.1 -
Or, as a radical alternative, they might consider voting for a Party that has not fed off or tried to cash in on that theme.Big_G_NorthWales said:Sky news showing a visibly angry Rishi Sunak condemning and actually saying the racist slur against him by the Reform volunteer
Apparently the police are now investigating whether an offence has been committed and the Sky report is not going to help Reform with their pro Putin, racist and misogynistic views
Time for conservatives to wake up and vote for the party to defend it from these vile views and characters
That would actually give them quite a wide choice.4 -
If Biden pulls out, the Democratic convention can pick whoever they want as candidate... AIUI.Roger said:
Is there a mechanism for someone other than Kamala Harris to take over?rkrkrk said:For those panicking about Biden (and I regret to say I'm joining that camp)... I think the next President market offers some reasonable odds.
For instance if you think Biden may choose to stand down (or be forced to)... you can get 26/1 on Kamala Harris winning. Or 600/1 on Buttigieg.0 -
Well, I've just been drinking some low-alcohol cider with my lunch roll - can't bear coke or simialr soft drinks. And shandy is the nearest to that so I would probably have said yes.sarissa said:
Best SNP score is for shandy drinkers? I would have thought they would be on hard stuff by now.Farooq said:
I'm a white wine drinker. I'm also known to be a filthy centrist. Judging from that graph, I've found my people.CarlottaVance said:Up the sherry drinkers!
NEW: A poll has been released showing the UK’s voting intention by alcoholic drink preference
https://x.com/politlcsuk/status/1806672615769075805?s=46&t=eiaG-Nju8t7zgfE3oCmAHA0 -
Regardless of their loyalty, aren't most mandated to pick Biden? They're not free agents. The convention selects Biden unless Biden pulls out... I think.Nigelb said:
The mechanism is a vote of delegates to the national convention. Which is in the middle of August.Roger said:
Is there a mechanism for someone other than Kamala Harris to take over?rkrkrk said:For those panicking about Biden (and I regret to say I'm joining that camp)... I think the next President market offers some reasonable odds.
For instance if you think Biden may choose to stand down (or be forced to)... you can get 26/1 on Kamala Harris winning. Or 600/1 on Buttigieg.
How you persuade several thousand individuals chosen largely on the basis of a record of loyalty to Joe Biden is something for which a known mechanism doesn't exit.0 -
I’m glad that Sunak is attacking Reform. It’s a bit late and he’s made horrendous mistakes in stoking the fire.1
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There's always a risk when you let things get to this state.williamglenn said:
There's a risk that an open convention would turn into a repeat of 1968.mwadams said:FPT:
I agree. If the clips packages are making it look "not too bad" for Biden, they are being very, very generous. It was painful to watch last night.FrancisUrquhart said:Pro_Rate....live it was far worse than the highlights. It wasn't a person gets one answer a bit mixed up.
If the Democrats don't get Biden to step aside and maximize any positive publicity they can extract from an Open Convention, the world will be in a very bad place next year.0 -
Watching Kenya Grace on Woodsies.
Soooooo good. Love her.0 -
But also the Polis will find out once and for all whether this actor chap was a C4 plant.Farooq said:
A telling last line from you there. It's the Conservatives who are the real victims, in your mind. Not people of colour.Big_G_NorthWales said:Sky news showing a visibly angry Rishi Sunak condemning and actually saying the racist slur against him by the Reform volunteer
Apparently the police are now investigating whether an offence has been committed and the Sky report is not going to help Reform with their pro Putin, racist and misogynistic views
Time for conservatives to wake up and vote for the party to defend it from these vile views and characters0 -
Unfortunately there are quite a lot of people, who will lapping up those vile comments, and I confidently expect Farage to win in Clacton, I have heard that Labour are putting in no effort there, but with the Torys present poll ratings it's hard to see them win, anyone who votes for Farage's merry band of racists, need to take a long hard look at themselvesBig_G_NorthWales said:Sky news showing a visibly angry Rishi Sunak condemning and actually saying the racist slur against him by the Reform volunteer
Apparently the police are now investigating whether an offence has been committed and the Sky report is not going to help Reform with their pro Putin, racist and misogynistic views
Time for conservatives to wake up and vote for the party to defend it from these vile views and characters2 -
Harris is a terrible candidate, but a great bet.rkrkrk said:For those panicking about Biden (and I regret to say I'm joining that camp)... I think the next President market offers some reasonable odds.
For instance if you think Biden may choose to stand down (or be forced to)... you can get 26/1 on Kamala Harris winning. Or 600/1 on Buttigieg.
She's the incumbent VP. She's not senile.
And it's not like Trump doesn't have his own issues.
I would buy her into the high teens. (Indeed, I think she is far more likely to be the candidate than Michelle Obama or Gavin Newsom.)2 -
Your comment is despicableFarooq said:
A telling last line from you there. It's the Conservatives who are the real victims, in your mind. Not people of colour.Big_G_NorthWales said:Sky news showing a visibly angry Rishi Sunak condemning and actually saying the racist slur against him by the Reform volunteer
Apparently the police are now investigating whether an offence has been committed and the Sky report is not going to help Reform with their pro Putin, racist and misogynistic views
Time for conservatives to wake up and vote for the party to defend it from these vile views and characters
I condemn racism and always have, but the only way the conservative party has a chance of remaining s one nation party is to ensure Reform are soundly beaten at the ballot box
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I wish that were funny, Leon, or implausible, and preferably both.Leon said:
Or two assassinationsCicero said:
Not so sure. I fear an assassination may be at hand.Fairliered said:
Trump will win and destroy democracy in the USA and poor old Joe won’t even know.Leon said:
That’s what I thought a few hours ago. But after contemplating - and seeing the first signs of wilful self-delusion “he wasn’t that bad really”, “ok he couldn’t form any words for an hour on live TV but he’s got a cold” I am fairly sure they will rationalise themselves to keeping himmoonshine said:
Nah. It’s not even 10am the morning after. Biden won’t be running, they just need the last bit of the fix to overlook Harris too before the coup de grace.Leon said:As predicted. The Dems will fall into line. Biden stays. So all this has done is massively damage him - even as he stays the candidate
Helplessly bad. But it’s kinda what they deserve after all their lies for two years - “he’s always stammered”, “he’s amazing in private”, “he’s sharper than ever and wears adult diapers for fun”
If it was EASY to replace him then Yes. He’d be gone tonight. But he apparently wants to stay and so does his wife and all the replacements are problematic
However you may be right. Confronted with the horror of a likely Trump victory they may be galvanised
Its compelling in a macabre way
But it's neither.0 -
Very good brief analysis of why replacing Biden js so hard. Starts with the sheer lack of time. 40 days. Goes from there
Also points to the dereliction of democracy that Joe Biden has clearly NOT been running the country for the last two years
https://x.com/twobitidiot/status/1806609483558191168?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw0 -
My x timeline is showing floods of apparently left leaning talking heads and podcasters saying out loud that Biden is done.Leon said:
That’s what I thought a few hours ago. But after contemplating - and seeing the first signs of wilful self-delusion “he wasn’t that bad really”, “ok he couldn’t form any words for an hour on live TV but he’s got a cold” I am fairly sure they will rationalise themselves to keeping himmoonshine said:
Nah. It’s not even 10am the morning after. Biden won’t be running, they just need the last bit of the fix to overlook Harris too before the coup de grace.Leon said:As predicted. The Dems will fall into line. Biden stays. So all this has done is massively damage him - even as he stays the candidate
Helplessly bad. But it’s kinda what they deserve after all their lies for two years - “he’s always stammered”, “he’s amazing in private”, “he’s sharper than ever and wears adult diapers for fun”
If it was EASY to replace him then Yes. He’d be gone tonight. But he apparently wants to stay and so does his wife and all the replacements are problematic
However you may be right. Confronted with the horror of a likely Trump victory they may be galvanised
Its compelling in a macabre way
I don’t know why people think it’s hard not to pick Harris. You simply have a vote at the convention where she doesn’t win. There. Done. If the identity politics crowd don’t like who’s picked, they can always vote for the open racist in Nov.0 -
What does it do to Trump’s chances if he actually in jail on election day?Leon said:Actually, joking aside, I would not be surprised if America’s political impasse was resolved with violence. America is a very violent society. Lots of politicians have been shot over the decades
It does arguably “solve” an insoluble problem.
And you could argue either makes a good target for those so minded
Would it scupper them or would he claim martyrdom?
0 -
The danger is Reform out polls the conservative party and then Farage becomes the voice of the oppositionPeter_the_Punter said:
Or, as a radical alternative, they might consider voting for a Party that has not fed off or tried to cash in on that theme.Big_G_NorthWales said:Sky news showing a visibly angry Rishi Sunak condemning and actually saying the racist slur against him by the Reform volunteer
Apparently the police are now investigating whether an offence has been committed and the Sky report is not going to help Reform with their pro Putin, racist and misogynistic views
Time for conservatives to wake up and vote for the party to defend it from these vile views and characters
That would actually give them quite a wide choice.0 -
I think the danger the Democrats have now is that keeping Biden on the ticket looks irresponsible now (some would say it has for some time but that’s another matter).edmundintokyo said:
On C I don't think the VP vacancy thing is a problem, it would clearly be the GOP's fault and the solution would be the election.PedestrianRock said:
Here’s an issue with the pathwaysRoger said:
Is there a mechanism for someone other than Kamala Harris to take over?rkrkrk said:For those panicking about Biden (and I regret to say I'm joining that camp)... I think the next President market offers some reasonable odds.
For instance if you think Biden may choose to stand down (or be forced to)... you can get 26/1 on Kamala Harris winning. Or 600/1 on Buttigieg.
A) Keep Biden/Harris - bad for the reasons outlined Keep Biden as President to see out his term, but the 2024 ticket is Harris/new VP - Easy attack line for Trump “the Democrats are being irresponsible, leaving us with a lame duck President and making our country unsafe!”
C) Elevate Harris now, choose new VP - Harris seen as a bad candidate. New VP might not get confirmed by House pre election. Trump can say “no VP, our country is exposed!”
D) Ditch both Biden and Harris on the ticket, but keep them in power. Black female voters will see Harris as passed over, may annoy them a lot. Biden/Harris seen as lame ducks for Trump to attack. Hard to pick suitable new pair.
E) Ditch Biden now, elevate Harris, but Harris not on ticket. Same problem as above, unless you can convince Michelle Obama and you think that’s a good strategy.
It’s very very difficult. I sympathise with them not sorting this out sooner. Personally I think you either try for Michelle, or you go all in on Kamala. Sticking with Joe at this point feels very very dicey.
The problem is simply, would Kamala Harris win? The polling says she'd lose. That's not necessarily predictive, but it's the only data we've got.
In any case this isn't ultimately up to The Democrats, it's up to Joe Biden.
I think they owe it to the country to actually put someone with all their faculties forward, be that Harris or AN Other. Regardless of whether they can stop Trump or not.
Biden will not stop Trump now. So they need to give someone else a go.1 -
I agree with some of that. Trump will come up with an attack line whatever, so I wouldn't overly worry about that.PedestrianRock said:
Here’s an issue with the pathwaysRoger said:
Is there a mechanism for someone other than Kamala Harris to take over?rkrkrk said:For those panicking about Biden (and I regret to say I'm joining that camp)... I think the next President market offers some reasonable odds.
For instance if you think Biden may choose to stand down (or be forced to)... you can get 26/1 on Kamala Harris winning. Or 600/1 on Buttigieg.
A) Keep Biden/Harris - bad for the reasons outlined Keep Biden as President to see out his term, but the 2024 ticket is Harris/new VP - Easy attack line for Trump “the Democrats are being irresponsible, leaving us with a lame duck President and making our country unsafe!”
C) Elevate Harris now, choose new VP - Harris seen as a bad candidate. New VP might not get confirmed by House pre election. Trump can say “no VP, our country is exposed!”
D) Ditch both Biden and Harris on the ticket, but keep them in power. Black female voters will see Harris as passed over, may annoy them a lot. Biden/Harris seen as lame ducks for Trump to attack. Hard to pick suitable new pair.
E) Ditch Biden now, elevate Harris, but Harris not on ticket. Same problem as above, unless you can convince Michelle Obama and you think that’s a good strategy.
It’s very very difficult. I sympathise with them not sorting this out sooner. Personally I think you either try for Michelle, or you go all in on Kamala. Sticking with Joe at this point feels very very dicey.
Basically, Biden goes or he doesn't. If he doesn't, it's Harris or someone else. The exact pathway doesn't matter as much. If you're going with Harris, it makes sense to make her President a.s.a.p., because then she can go around looking presidential. The Republicans playing games over nominating a new VP looks bad for them, not the Dems.1 -
First, thanks yet again to The Green Machine for posting this analysis.
Second, am confused by statement that, "Naomi Long [APNI] could be depending on the SF voters and transfers". The voters I get; but transfers? Thought that Westminster elections in NI were like rest of UK = FPTP?2 -
As an aside, no one actually vote for Joe Biden. The cast majority of Democrat votes, whether in 2020 or 2024, will be cast against Donald Trump.
Whether he is senile or not, he continues to not be Donald Trump.1 -
Comparing the Nom to WH markets to get the implied chance of Biden beating Trump if he doesn't step down ... 30%.
Don't know what people make of that. Hard to say, isn't it. It's a very tricky thing to assess.0 -
It was quite noticeable the uptick in Reform polling when Sunak took over the Tory leadership.Big_G_NorthWales said:Sky news showing a visibly angry Rishi Sunak condemning and actually saying the racist slur against him by the Reform volunteer
Apparently the police are now investigating whether an offence has been committed and the Sky report is not going to help Reform with highlighting their pro Putin, racist and misogynistic views
Time for conservatives to wake up and vote for the party to defend it from these vile views and characters
Not all of it policy led is my suspicion.0 -
Yes, I’m absolutely serious. I can see it happening to either candidate for multiple reasonsPeter_the_Punter said:
I wish that were funny, Leon, or implausible, and preferably both.Leon said:
Or two assassinationsCicero said:
Not so sure. I fear an assassination may be at hand.Fairliered said:
Trump will win and destroy democracy in the USA and poor old Joe won’t even know.Leon said:
That’s what I thought a few hours ago. But after contemplating - and seeing the first signs of wilful self-delusion “he wasn’t that bad really”, “ok he couldn’t form any words for an hour on live TV but he’s got a cold” I am fairly sure they will rationalise themselves to keeping himmoonshine said:
Nah. It’s not even 10am the morning after. Biden won’t be running, they just need the last bit of the fix to overlook Harris too before the coup de grace.Leon said:As predicted. The Dems will fall into line. Biden stays. So all this has done is massively damage him - even as he stays the candidate
Helplessly bad. But it’s kinda what they deserve after all their lies for two years - “he’s always stammered”, “he’s amazing in private”, “he’s sharper than ever and wears adult diapers for fun”
If it was EASY to replace him then Yes. He’d be gone tonight. But he apparently wants to stay and so does his wife and all the replacements are problematic
However you may be right. Confronted with the horror of a likely Trump victory they may be galvanised
Its compelling in a macabre way
But it's neither.
Clearly I pray I’m wrong but America has an awful lot of guns, a history of assassinations, and plenty of angry or bad or desperate people1 -
Doesn't matter.Nunu5 said:
They can't just change the ballots at this stage.......the red states won't allow it......rottenborough said:
It's too early to know.Leon said:
That’s what I thought a few hours ago. But after contemplating - and seeing the first signs of wilful self-delusion “he wasn’t that bad really”, “ok he couldn’t form any words for an hour on live TV but he’s got a cold” I am fairly sure they will rationalise themselves to keeping himmoonshine said:
Nah. It’s not even 10am the morning after. Biden won’t be running, they just need the last bit of the fix to overlook Harris too before the coup de grace.Leon said:As predicted. The Dems will fall into line. Biden stays. So all this has done is massively damage him - even as he stays the candidate
Helplessly bad. But it’s kinda what they deserve after all their lies for two years - “he’s always stammered”, “he’s amazing in private”, “he’s sharper than ever and wears adult diapers for fun”
If it was EASY to replace him then Yes. He’d be gone tonight. But he apparently wants to stay and so does his wife and all the replacements are problematic
However you may be right. Confronted with the horror of a likely Trump victory they may be galvanised
Its compelling in a macabre way
A lot of people in the party have to do a lot of talking with each other.
Maybe we will have a clearer idea by end of the weekend?
Remember you don't elect the President, you elect electors. The Biden electors would just vote for AN Other in the Electoral College.
And - btw - the ballot probably shouldn't be printed anyway until after the Convention, when someone officially becomes the candidate.2 -
Yes, but the problem is that Trump can now also be the not senile Joe Biden candidate. It's how he wins.rcs1000 said:As an aside, no one actually vote for Joe Biden. The cast majority of Democrat votes, whether in 2020 or 2024, will be cast against Donald Trump.
Whether he is senile or not, he continues to not be Donald Trump.
1 -
If Reform polls, say, 8% and the Tories 7%, then it's not a problem.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The danger is Reform out polls the conservative party and then Farage becomes the voice of the oppositionPeter_the_Punter said:
Or, as a radical alternative, they might consider voting for a Party that has not fed off or tried to cash in on that theme.Big_G_NorthWales said:Sky news showing a visibly angry Rishi Sunak condemning and actually saying the racist slur against him by the Reform volunteer
Apparently the police are now investigating whether an offence has been committed and the Sky report is not going to help Reform with their pro Putin, racist and misogynistic views
Time for conservatives to wake up and vote for the party to defend it from these vile views and characters
That would actually give them quite a wide choice.1 -
Folks go onto iPlayer and get with the yoooof on the Woodsies Stage. Kenya Grace. So good.
You wanna know where the real pulse is? Now’s your chance but be quick.0 -
Spot on.SouthamObserver said:
Yes, but the problem is that Trump can now also be the not senile Joe Biden candidate. It's how he wins.rcs1000 said:As an aside, no one actually vote for Joe Biden. The cast majority of Democrat votes, whether in 2020 or 2024, will be cast against Donald Trump.
Whether he is senile or not, he continues to not be Donald Trump.
So the Democrats need another Not Trump candidate.
0 -
Brexit Britain could benefit from a flight to safety from the political chaos engulfing the US and EU.0
-
Meaningless unless they actually beat them on seat numbers - which they won't even if they outpoll them.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The danger is Reform out polls the conservative party and then Farage becomes the voice of the oppositionPeter_the_Punter said:
Or, as a radical alternative, they might consider voting for a Party that has not fed off or tried to cash in on that theme.Big_G_NorthWales said:Sky news showing a visibly angry Rishi Sunak condemning and actually saying the racist slur against him by the Reform volunteer
Apparently the police are now investigating whether an offence has been committed and the Sky report is not going to help Reform with their pro Putin, racist and misogynistic views
Time for conservatives to wake up and vote for the party to defend it from these vile views and characters
That would actually give them quite a wide choice.2 -
If Biden died or was taken seriously ill in Hospital then irrespective of an individual state saying we cannot change the ballot, the fact is they would have to and the right wing Supreme Court would back that view.
There will be probably be an Open convention and the way would be open for Gavin Newsome. If there is a capable and competent Democratic in the Southern states he/she would be a good alternative choice..0 -
Sunak has never looked more authentic. That is genuine anger - and he is right to speak out as he has. However, this is also the bloke who has spent the last couple of years snuggling up to Reform voters and who was happy to take millions from Frank Hester. If he had taken a different path when he had the chance things may have turned out very differently for him.Big_G_NorthWales said:Sky news showing a visibly angry Rishi Sunak condemning and actually saying the racist slur against him by the Reform volunteer
Apparently the police are now investigating whether an offence has been committed and the Sky report is not going to help Reform with highlighting their pro Putin, racist and misogynistic views
Time for conservatives to wake up and vote for the party to defend it from these vile views and characters
7 -
As I understand it the DNC could just change the rules. I don't think there's anything to stop them just choosing the Democrat candidate themselves.bondegezou said:
Regardless of their loyalty, aren't most mandated to pick Biden? They're not free agents. The convention selects Biden unless Biden pulls out... I think.Nigelb said:
The mechanism is a vote of delegates to the national convention. Which is in the middle of August.Roger said:
Is there a mechanism for someone other than Kamala Harris to take over?rkrkrk said:For those panicking about Biden (and I regret to say I'm joining that camp)... I think the next President market offers some reasonable odds.
For instance if you think Biden may choose to stand down (or be forced to)... you can get 26/1 on Kamala Harris winning. Or 600/1 on Buttigieg.
How you persuade several thousand individuals chosen largely on the basis of a record of loyalty to Joe Biden is something for which a known mechanism doesn't exit.0 -
Indeed. Let’s hope Starmer prevails.williamglenn said:Brexit Britain could benefit from a flight to safety from the political chaos engulfing the US and EU.
1 -
Does that work in Cleveland ?rcs1000 said:
Doesn't matter.Nunu5 said:
They can't just change the ballots at this stage.......the red states won't allow it......rottenborough said:
It's too early to know.Leon said:
That’s what I thought a few hours ago. But after contemplating - and seeing the first signs of wilful self-delusion “he wasn’t that bad really”, “ok he couldn’t form any words for an hour on live TV but he’s got a cold” I am fairly sure they will rationalise themselves to keeping himmoonshine said:
Nah. It’s not even 10am the morning after. Biden won’t be running, they just need the last bit of the fix to overlook Harris too before the coup de grace.Leon said:As predicted. The Dems will fall into line. Biden stays. So all this has done is massively damage him - even as he stays the candidate
Helplessly bad. But it’s kinda what they deserve after all their lies for two years - “he’s always stammered”, “he’s amazing in private”, “he’s sharper than ever and wears adult diapers for fun”
If it was EASY to replace him then Yes. He’d be gone tonight. But he apparently wants to stay and so does his wife and all the replacements are problematic
However you may be right. Confronted with the horror of a likely Trump victory they may be galvanised
Its compelling in a macabre way
A lot of people in the party have to do a lot of talking with each other.
Maybe we will have a clearer idea by end of the weekend?
Remember you don't elect the President, you elect electors. The Biden electors would just vote for AN Other in the Electoral College.
And - btw - the ballot probably shouldn't be printed anyway until after the Convention, when someone officially becomes the candidate.0 -
lol. Glasto hasn’t been the pulse of the country since about 1995. It’s a lot of wealthy middle aged people pretending to be young - like youHeathener said:Folks go onto iPlayer and get with the yoooof on the Woodsies Stage. Kenya Grace. So good.
You wanna know where the real pulse is? Now’s your chance but be quick.
And there is absolutely nothing wrong with that. I hope the sun shines and you all have a blast. But if you want to know what young Britain thinks I suggest TikTok over Shepton Mallett0 -
Big_G_NorthWales said:
The danger is Reform out polls the conservative party and then Farage becomes the voice of the oppositionPeter_the_Punter said:
Or, as a radical alternative, they might consider voting for a Party that has not fed off or tried to cash in on that theme.Big_G_NorthWales said:Sky news showing a visibly angry Rishi Sunak condemning and actually saying the racist slur against him by the Reform volunteer
Apparently the police are now investigating whether an offence has been committed and the Sky report is not going to help Reform with their pro Putin, racist and misogynistic views
Time for conservatives to wake up and vote for the party to defend it from these vile views and characters
That would actually give them quite a wide choice.
I believe he has had the most appearances of any politico on BBC QT in this century, quite frankly the airtime he is given is a disgrace. The media are fully entitled to choose who they interview but he seems to be able to summon media like flies to shXT, this is a party which has never won anything except about 6 council seats.... (BXP/UKIP are not the same). Quite frankly his command of the media is disproportionate and dangerous3 -
Don't rule changes require a DNC floor vote ?kamski said:
As I understand it the DNC could just change the rules. I don't think there's anything to stop them just choosing the Democrat candidate themselves.bondegezou said:
Regardless of their loyalty, aren't most mandated to pick Biden? They're not free agents. The convention selects Biden unless Biden pulls out... I think.Nigelb said:
The mechanism is a vote of delegates to the national convention. Which is in the middle of August.Roger said:
Is there a mechanism for someone other than Kamala Harris to take over?rkrkrk said:For those panicking about Biden (and I regret to say I'm joining that camp)... I think the next President market offers some reasonable odds.
For instance if you think Biden may choose to stand down (or be forced to)... you can get 26/1 on Kamala Harris winning. Or 600/1 on Buttigieg.
How you persuade several thousand individuals chosen largely on the basis of a record of loyalty to Joe Biden is something for which a known mechanism doesn't exit.0 -
Nice graphic. The danger being the obvious use of it would be to claim you have to be drunk to vote for LabourCarlottaVance said:Up the sherry drinkers!
NEW: A poll has been released showing the UK’s voting intention by alcoholic drink preference
https://x.com/politlcsuk/status/1806672615769075805?s=46&t=eiaG-Nju8t7zgfE3oCmAHA
1 -
My 26 year old daughter is there with her mates. They've just had an absolute blast watching Squeeze.Leon said:
lol. Glasto hasn’t been the pulse of the country since about 1995. It’s a lot of wealthy middle aged people pretending to be young - like youHeathener said:Folks go onto iPlayer and get with the yoooof on the Woodsies Stage. Kenya Grace. So good.
You wanna know where the real pulse is? Now’s your chance but be quick.
And there is absolutely nothing wrong with that. I hope the sun shines and you all have a blast. But if you want to know what young Britain thinks I suggest TikTok over Shepton Mallett
1 -
That analysis I linked claims that the democrats have just 40 days to do this. A new candidate has to be on the Ohio ballot by August 4
Is that true? I don’t know the mechanics of American electoral law - but if that is true I suggest this is probably impossible. There’s not enough time0 -
Where does all this leave Kennedy?0
-
Certainly not in Barnsley !Farooq said:
which they also won't do.Richard_Tyndall said:
Meaningless unless they actually beat them on seat numbers - which they won't even if they outpoll them.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The danger is Reform out polls the conservative party and then Farage becomes the voice of the oppositionPeter_the_Punter said:
Or, as a radical alternative, they might consider voting for a Party that has not fed off or tried to cash in on that theme.Big_G_NorthWales said:Sky news showing a visibly angry Rishi Sunak condemning and actually saying the racist slur against him by the Reform volunteer
Apparently the police are now investigating whether an offence has been committed and the Sky report is not going to help Reform with their pro Putin, racist and misogynistic views
Time for conservatives to wake up and vote for the party to defend it from these vile views and characters
That would actually give them quite a wide choice.
If keeping Reform out was really someone's top priority, they wouldn't just blanket advocate voting Conservative. That's the best bet in some seats, but seats like Ashfield and Gt Yarmouth, probably not.1 -
There’s another universe where Sunak took on the right, ended the culture wars, exposed the Rwanda scheme as the farce it is and returned to Cameron/May pragmatic conservative politics. I think there might have been conservative votes in an Thatcherite economic pragmatic approach to the EU and a return to the vote blue go green agenda.SouthamObserver said:
Sunak has never looked more authentic. That is genuine anger - and he is right to speak out as he has. However, this is also the bloke who has spent the last couple of years snuggling up to Reform voters and who was happy to take millions from Frank Hester. If he had taken a different path when he had the chance things may have turned out very differently for him.Big_G_NorthWales said:Sky news showing a visibly angry Rishi Sunak condemning and actually saying the racist slur against him by the Reform volunteer
Apparently the police are now investigating whether an offence has been committed and the Sky report is not going to help Reform with highlighting their pro Putin, racist and misogynistic views
Time for conservatives to wake up and vote for the party to defend it from these vile views and characters
It’s tragic he didn’t go down that path.4 -
Enviable. Also squeeze are great - but that in itself says something about both glasto and modern pop music. They heyday of squeeze was 40 years agoSouthamObserver said:
My 26 year old daughter is there with her mates. They've just had an absolute blast watching Squeeze.Leon said:
lol. Glasto hasn’t been the pulse of the country since about 1995. It’s a lot of wealthy middle aged people pretending to be young - like youHeathener said:Folks go onto iPlayer and get with the yoooof on the Woodsies Stage. Kenya Grace. So good.
You wanna know where the real pulse is? Now’s your chance but be quick.
And there is absolutely nothing wrong with that. I hope the sun shines and you all have a blast. But if you want to know what young Britain thinks I suggest TikTok over Shepton Mallett
I went to glasto in the 1980s and if they’d said “now we’ve got a band from the 1940s” everyone would have rioted in angry amazement
A good sunny Glasto is a brilliant thing. I’ve done two of them. I’ve also done a really really rainy one which was ok because we took loads of drugs but we fled on day two (I had free press tickets so I didn’t care)2 -
Well Biden himself might not be on ballot in Ohio. Dems might have to just write Ohio off if it comes to that.Leon said:That analysis I linked claims that the democrats have just 40 days to do this. A new candidate has to be on the Ohio ballot by August 4
Is that true? I don’t know the mechanics of American electoral law - but if that is true I suggest this is probably impossible. There’s not enough time0 -
I suspect you are right but at the moment I am not sure. Certainly not enough to bet on it.Farooq said:
which they also won't do.Richard_Tyndall said:
Meaningless unless they actually beat them on seat numbers - which they won't even if they outpoll them.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The danger is Reform out polls the conservative party and then Farage becomes the voice of the oppositionPeter_the_Punter said:
Or, as a radical alternative, they might consider voting for a Party that has not fed off or tried to cash in on that theme.Big_G_NorthWales said:Sky news showing a visibly angry Rishi Sunak condemning and actually saying the racist slur against him by the Reform volunteer
Apparently the police are now investigating whether an offence has been committed and the Sky report is not going to help Reform with their pro Putin, racist and misogynistic views
Time for conservatives to wake up and vote for the party to defend it from these vile views and characters
That would actually give them quite a wide choice.
If keeping Reform out was really someone's top priority, they wouldn't just blanket advocate voting Conservative. That's the best bet in some seats, but seats like Ashfield and Gt Yarmouth, probably not.0 -
Bit shite for the eels and frogs downstream, though.Leon said:
Enviable. Also squeeze are great - but that in itself says something about both glasto and modern pop music. They heyday of squeeze was 40 years agoSouthamObserver said:
My 26 year old daughter is there with her mates. They've just had an absolute blast watching Squeeze.Leon said:
lol. Glasto hasn’t been the pulse of the country since about 1995. It’s a lot of wealthy middle aged people pretending to be young - like youHeathener said:Folks go onto iPlayer and get with the yoooof on the Woodsies Stage. Kenya Grace. So good.
You wanna know where the real pulse is? Now’s your chance but be quick.
And there is absolutely nothing wrong with that. I hope the sun shines and you all have a blast. But if you want to know what young Britain thinks I suggest TikTok over Shepton Mallett
I went to glasto in the 1980s and if they’d said “now we’ve got a band from the 1940s” everyone would have rioted in angry amazement
A good sunny Glasto is a brilliant thing. I’ve done two of them. I’ve also done a really really rainy one which was ok because we took loads of drugs but we fled on day two (I had free press tickets so I didn’t care)0 -
So Ohio is not the clincher that guy claims? Can be Dems afford to write off a fairly big state like that?kamski said:
Well Biden himself might not be on ballot in Ohio. Dems might have to just write Ohio off if it comes to that.Leon said:That analysis I linked claims that the democrats have just 40 days to do this. A new candidate has to be on the Ohio ballot by August 4
Is that true? I don’t know the mechanics of American electoral law - but if that is true I suggest this is probably impossible. There’s not enough time0 -
Just had a thought, Hindenburg was 86 when he ran for re-election...0
-
Time of their lives I would have thought. It's not easy being green.Carnyx said:
Bit shite for the eels and frogs downstream, though.Leon said:
Enviable. Also squeeze are great - but that in itself says something about both glasto and modern pop music. They heyday of squeeze was 40 years agoSouthamObserver said:
My 26 year old daughter is there with her mates. They've just had an absolute blast watching Squeeze.Leon said:
lol. Glasto hasn’t been the pulse of the country since about 1995. It’s a lot of wealthy middle aged people pretending to be young - like youHeathener said:Folks go onto iPlayer and get with the yoooof on the Woodsies Stage. Kenya Grace. So good.
You wanna know where the real pulse is? Now’s your chance but be quick.
And there is absolutely nothing wrong with that. I hope the sun shines and you all have a blast. But if you want to know what young Britain thinks I suggest TikTok over Shepton Mallett
I went to glasto in the 1980s and if they’d said “now we’ve got a band from the 1940s” everyone would have rioted in angry amazement
A good sunny Glasto is a brilliant thing. I’ve done two of them. I’ve also done a really really rainy one which was ok because we took loads of drugs but we fled on day two (I had free press tickets so I didn’t care)0 -
The last bit is odd. How does Biden being too old for a 2nd term mean that his 1st term has been directed by shadowy puppeteers?Leon said:Very good brief analysis of why replacing Biden js so hard. Starts with the sheer lack of time. 40 days. Goes from there
Also points to the dereliction of democracy that Joe Biden has clearly NOT been running the country for the last two years
https://x.com/twobitidiot/status/1806609483558191168?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw0 -
You will certainly want to be drunk after this bunch of lefty lower middle management lightweights have been in power for about six months.Richard_Tyndall said:
Nice graphic. The danger being the obvious use of it would be to claim you have to be drunk to vote for LabourCarlottaVance said:Up the sherry drinkers!
NEW: A poll has been released showing the UK’s voting intention by alcoholic drink preference
https://x.com/politlcsuk/status/1806672615769075805?s=46&t=eiaG-Nju8t7zgfE3oCmAHA1 -
Ohio is now solid Trump, it voted for Trump in 2016 and 2020Leon said:
So Ohio is not the clincher that guy claims? Can be Dems afford to write off a fairly big state like that?kamski said:
Well Biden himself might not be on ballot in Ohio. Dems might have to just write Ohio off if it comes to that.Leon said:That analysis I linked claims that the democrats have just 40 days to do this. A new candidate has to be on the Ohio ballot by August 4
Is that true? I don’t know the mechanics of American electoral law - but if that is true I suggest this is probably impossible. There’s not enough time0 -
Ohio hasn't gone Dem since Obama. It's already gone.Leon said:
So Ohio is not the clincher that guy claims? Can be Dems afford to write off a fairly big state like that?kamski said:
Well Biden himself might not be on ballot in Ohio. Dems might have to just write Ohio off if it comes to that.Leon said:That analysis I linked claims that the democrats have just 40 days to do this. A new candidate has to be on the Ohio ballot by August 4
Is that true? I don’t know the mechanics of American electoral law - but if that is true I suggest this is probably impossible. There’s not enough time2 -
How could Sunak have ended the culture war going on between people like JK Rowling and the Labour party?Jonathan said:
There’s another universe where Sunak took on the right, ended the culture wars, exposed the Rwanda scheme as the farce it is and returned to Cameron/May pragmatic conservative politics. I think there might have been conservative votes in an Thatcherite economic pragmatic approach to the EU and a return to the vote blue go green agenda.SouthamObserver said:
Sunak has never looked more authentic. That is genuine anger - and he is right to speak out as he has. However, this is also the bloke who has spent the last couple of years snuggling up to Reform voters and who was happy to take millions from Frank Hester. If he had taken a different path when he had the chance things may have turned out very differently for him.Big_G_NorthWales said:Sky news showing a visibly angry Rishi Sunak condemning and actually saying the racist slur against him by the Reform volunteer
Apparently the police are now investigating whether an offence has been committed and the Sky report is not going to help Reform with highlighting their pro Putin, racist and misogynistic views
Time for conservatives to wake up and vote for the party to defend it from these vile views and characters
It’s tragic he didn’t go down that path.0 -
Not sure, but I'm talking about the Democratic National Committee. tbh I have no idea how they operate, was hoping someone mightPulpstar said:
Don't rule changes require a DNC floor vote ?kamski said:
As I understand it the DNC could just change the rules. I don't think there's anything to stop them just choosing the Democrat candidate themselves.bondegezou said:
Regardless of their loyalty, aren't most mandated to pick Biden? They're not free agents. The convention selects Biden unless Biden pulls out... I think.Nigelb said:
The mechanism is a vote of delegates to the national convention. Which is in the middle of August.Roger said:
Is there a mechanism for someone other than Kamala Harris to take over?rkrkrk said:For those panicking about Biden (and I regret to say I'm joining that camp)... I think the next President market offers some reasonable odds.
For instance if you think Biden may choose to stand down (or be forced to)... you can get 26/1 on Kamala Harris winning. Or 600/1 on Buttigieg.
How you persuade several thousand individuals chosen largely on the basis of a record of loyalty to Joe Biden is something for which a known mechanism doesn't exit.0 -
It's not as if a lot of people have been saying he should have been replaced quite a long time ago.Leon said:Very good brief analysis of why replacing Biden js so hard. Starts with the sheer lack of time. 40 days. Goes from there
Also points to the dereliction of democracy that Joe Biden has clearly NOT been running the country for the last two years
https://x.com/twobitidiot/status/1806609483558191168?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw0 -
Given Biden's dementia and if Trump is jailed in July, sitting pretty I imagine. An A++list Democrat name but with some of his policies solid MAGA.theakes said:Where does all this leave Kennedy?
If the Democrats replace Biden with Newsom or Harris at their convention and Trump is jailed and the GOP establishment try and draft Haley or Romney or DeSantis to replace him at their convention too that would be the dream for Kennedy0 -
“As I understand it”. Peak PB comment.kamski said:
Not sure, but I'm talking about the Democratic National Committee. tbh I have no idea how they operate, was hoping someone mightPulpstar said:
Don't rule changes require a DNC floor vote ?kamski said:
As I understand it the DNC could just change the rules. I don't think there's anything to stop them just choosing the Democrat candidate themselves.bondegezou said:
Regardless of their loyalty, aren't most mandated to pick Biden? They're not free agents. The convention selects Biden unless Biden pulls out... I think.Nigelb said:
The mechanism is a vote of delegates to the national convention. Which is in the middle of August.Roger said:
Is there a mechanism for someone other than Kamala Harris to take over?rkrkrk said:For those panicking about Biden (and I regret to say I'm joining that camp)... I think the next President market offers some reasonable odds.
For instance if you think Biden may choose to stand down (or be forced to)... you can get 26/1 on Kamala Harris winning. Or 600/1 on Buttigieg.
How you persuade several thousand individuals chosen largely on the basis of a record of loyalty to Joe Biden is something for which a known mechanism doesn't exit. 0 -
I don't think these attacks on Reform will work. The aim is to try and destroy them by revealing their 'true nature' but it just keeps getting shrugged off by Farage. So the attacks fail, and the by product is that the discourse is normalised. It feels like the overton window shifting.0
-
About right/not lower, I'd say. He's still the not Trump candidate and even if you think he'll be ditched or Pres in name only then you have KH or much of the current team who are also not Trump.kinabalu said:Comparing the Nom to WH markets to get the implied chance of Biden beating Trump if he doesn't step down ... 30%.
Don't know what people make of that. Hard to say, isn't it. It's a very tricky thing to assess.
But, I don't really know and I'm looking through a UK (relatively sane) lens, which I suspect makes me underestimate Trump's chances overall, which is why I'm keeping out of it for now. I don't think Biden would lose big, but I do think he'd struggle to win.0 -
Absolutely agree. It almost makes you wonder if those sympathetic to Labour at the BBC want him on so that he can help degrade the Tory Party even further than they have managed on their own. The useful idiots manage to push a modern day Oswald Mosley further into the gullible public consciousness to the detriment of our democracy.swing_voter said:Big_G_NorthWales said:
The danger is Reform out polls the conservative party and then Farage becomes the voice of the oppositionPeter_the_Punter said:
Or, as a radical alternative, they might consider voting for a Party that has not fed off or tried to cash in on that theme.Big_G_NorthWales said:Sky news showing a visibly angry Rishi Sunak condemning and actually saying the racist slur against him by the Reform volunteer
Apparently the police are now investigating whether an offence has been committed and the Sky report is not going to help Reform with their pro Putin, racist and misogynistic views
Time for conservatives to wake up and vote for the party to defend it from these vile views and characters
That would actually give them quite a wide choice.
I believe he has had the most appearances of any politico on BBC QT in this century, quite frankly the airtime he is given is a disgrace. The media are fully entitled to choose who they interview but he seems to be able to summon media like flies to shXT, this is a party which has never won anything except about 6 council seats.... (BXP/UKIP are not the same). Quite frankly his command of the media is disproportionate and dangerous0 -
And why on earth would someone like me vote for that soppy Blairite shite. That’s why they are in the mess they are. They are a social Democrat party pretending to be conservativeJonathan said:
There’s another universe where Sunak took on the right, ended the culture wars, exposed the Rwanda scheme as the farce it is and returned to Cameron/May pragmatic conservative politics. I think there might have been conservative votes in an Thatcherite economic pragmatic approach to the EU and a return to the vote blue go green agenda.SouthamObserver said:
Sunak has never looked more authentic. That is genuine anger - and he is right to speak out as he has. However, this is also the bloke who has spent the last couple of years snuggling up to Reform voters and who was happy to take millions from Frank Hester. If he had taken a different path when he had the chance things may have turned out very differently for him.Big_G_NorthWales said:Sky news showing a visibly angry Rishi Sunak condemning and actually saying the racist slur against him by the Reform volunteer
Apparently the police are now investigating whether an offence has been committed and the Sky report is not going to help Reform with highlighting their pro Putin, racist and misogynistic views
Time for conservatives to wake up and vote for the party to defend it from these vile views and characters
It’s tragic he didn’t go down that path.
You are suggesting they do MORE of that and it will solve their problems. lol0 -
Perhaps they might vote on principle, rather than trying to game the system.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The danger is Reform out polls the conservative party and then Farage becomes the voice of the oppositionPeter_the_Punter said:
Or, as a radical alternative, they might consider voting for a Party that has not fed off or tried to cash in on that theme.Big_G_NorthWales said:Sky news showing a visibly angry Rishi Sunak condemning and actually saying the racist slur against him by the Reform volunteer
Apparently the police are now investigating whether an offence has been committed and the Sky report is not going to help Reform with their pro Putin, racist and misogynistic views
Time for conservatives to wake up and vote for the party to defend it from these vile views and characters
That would actually give them quite a wide choice.
It's just an idea.0 -
That's right the realignment of American politics means Ohio is a safe Trump state.Unpopular said:
Ohio hasn't gone Dem since Obama. It's already gone.Leon said:
So Ohio is not the clincher that guy claims? Can be Dems afford to write off a fairly big state like that?kamski said:
Well Biden himself might not be on ballot in Ohio. Dems might have to just write Ohio off if it comes to that.Leon said:That analysis I linked claims that the democrats have just 40 days to do this. A new candidate has to be on the Ohio ballot by August 4
Is that true? I don’t know the mechanics of American electoral law - but if that is true I suggest this is probably impossible. There’s not enough time
It's just too wwc1 -
He might have cited how proud he was that the Tories introduced gay marriage, promoted tolerance as a conservative value and generally lowered the temperature. You know, political leadership.williamglenn said:
How could Sunak have ended the culture war going on between people like JK Rowling and the Labour party?Jonathan said:
There’s another universe where Sunak took on the right, ended the culture wars, exposed the Rwanda scheme as the farce it is and returned to Cameron/May pragmatic conservative politics. I think there might have been conservative votes in an Thatcherite economic pragmatic approach to the EU and a return to the vote blue go green agenda.SouthamObserver said:
Sunak has never looked more authentic. That is genuine anger - and he is right to speak out as he has. However, this is also the bloke who has spent the last couple of years snuggling up to Reform voters and who was happy to take millions from Frank Hester. If he had taken a different path when he had the chance things may have turned out very differently for him.Big_G_NorthWales said:Sky news showing a visibly angry Rishi Sunak condemning and actually saying the racist slur against him by the Reform volunteer
Apparently the police are now investigating whether an offence has been committed and the Sky report is not going to help Reform with highlighting their pro Putin, racist and misogynistic views
Time for conservatives to wake up and vote for the party to defend it from these vile views and characters
It’s tragic he didn’t go down that path.2 -
Because he’s obviously not running the show as he’s not mentally capablekinabalu said:
The last bit is odd. How does Biden being too old for a 2nd term mean that his 1st term has been directed by shadowy puppeteers?Leon said:Very good brief analysis of why replacing Biden js so hard. Starts with the sheer lack of time. 40 days. Goes from there
Also points to the dereliction of democracy that Joe Biden has clearly NOT been running the country for the last two years
https://x.com/twobitidiot/status/1806609483558191168?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw0 -
What's the underlying reason for the problem with postal voting in Scotland?0
-
If Trump is jailed and somehow kept off the ballot and Biden scrapes home on a pitiful voteshare against a divided opposition then the US could be near civil warLeon said:Actually, joking aside, I would not be surprised if America’s political impasse was resolved with violence. America is a very violent society. Lots of politicians have been shot over the decades
It does arguably “solve” an insoluble problem.
And you could argue either makes a good target for those so minded0 -
Indeed. Perilous timesHYUFD said:
If Trump is jailed and somehow kept off the ballot and Biden scrapes home then the US could be near civil warLeon said:Actually, joking aside, I would not be surprised if America’s political impasse was resolved with violence. America is a very violent society. Lots of politicians have been shot over the decades
It does arguably “solve” an insoluble problem.
And you could argue either makes a good target for those so minded
1 -
(a) Trump is not going to be jailed.HYUFD said:
If Trump is jailed and somehow kept off the ballot and Biden scrapes home on a pitiful voteshare against a divided opposition then the US could be near civil warLeon said:Actually, joking aside, I would not be surprised if America’s political impasse was resolved with violence. America is a very violent society. Lots of politicians have been shot over the decades
It does arguably “solve” an insoluble problem.
And you could argue either makes a good target for those so minded
(b) What is the mechanism for keeping Trump off the ballot?2 -
Doing more of the swiveleyed loony nonsense that you would like them to do certainly will not. Conservatives win power when they are closer to the centre than Labour (and yes this even applied under Mrs T and even the twattish Johnson), and not when they are veering off in the direction of Putin appeasing Farage and his BNP fellow travellers.Leon said:
And why on earth would someone like me vote for that soppy Blairite shite. That’s why they are in the mess they are. They are a social Democrat party pretending to be conservativeJonathan said:
There’s another universe where Sunak took on the right, ended the culture wars, exposed the Rwanda scheme as the farce it is and returned to Cameron/May pragmatic conservative politics. I think there might have been conservative votes in an Thatcherite economic pragmatic approach to the EU and a return to the vote blue go green agenda.SouthamObserver said:
Sunak has never looked more authentic. That is genuine anger - and he is right to speak out as he has. However, this is also the bloke who has spent the last couple of years snuggling up to Reform voters and who was happy to take millions from Frank Hester. If he had taken a different path when he had the chance things may have turned out very differently for him.Big_G_NorthWales said:Sky news showing a visibly angry Rishi Sunak condemning and actually saying the racist slur against him by the Reform volunteer
Apparently the police are now investigating whether an offence has been committed and the Sky report is not going to help Reform with highlighting their pro Putin, racist and misogynistic views
Time for conservatives to wake up and vote for the party to defend it from these vile views and characters
It’s tragic he didn’t go down that path.
You are suggesting they do MORE of that and it will solve their problems. lol2 -
Yeah, but you're more likely to vote for the fascists you so admire like Putin than 'soppy Blairite shite'.Leon said:
And why on earth would someone like me vote for that soppy Blairite shite. That’s why they are in the mess they are. They are a social Democrat party pretending to be conservativeJonathan said:
There’s another universe where Sunak took on the right, ended the culture wars, exposed the Rwanda scheme as the farce it is and returned to Cameron/May pragmatic conservative politics. I think there might have been conservative votes in an Thatcherite economic pragmatic approach to the EU and a return to the vote blue go green agenda.SouthamObserver said:
Sunak has never looked more authentic. That is genuine anger - and he is right to speak out as he has. However, this is also the bloke who has spent the last couple of years snuggling up to Reform voters and who was happy to take millions from Frank Hester. If he had taken a different path when he had the chance things may have turned out very differently for him.Big_G_NorthWales said:Sky news showing a visibly angry Rishi Sunak condemning and actually saying the racist slur against him by the Reform volunteer
Apparently the police are now investigating whether an offence has been committed and the Sky report is not going to help Reform with highlighting their pro Putin, racist and misogynistic views
Time for conservatives to wake up and vote for the party to defend it from these vile views and characters
It’s tragic he didn’t go down that path.
You are suggesting they do MORE of that and it will solve their problems. lol1 -
That was received opinion twenty years ago, even ten years ago, and it was probably validNigel_Foremain said:
Doing more of the swiveleyed loony nonsense that you would like them to do certainly will not. Conservatives win power when they are closer to the centre than Labour (and yes this even applied under Mrs T and even the twattish Johnson), and not when they are veering off in the direction of Putin appeasing Farage and his BNP fellow travellers.Leon said:
And why on earth would someone like me vote for that soppy Blairite shite. That’s why they are in the mess they are. They are a social Democrat party pretending to be conservativeJonathan said:
There’s another universe where Sunak took on the right, ended the culture wars, exposed the Rwanda scheme as the farce it is and returned to Cameron/May pragmatic conservative politics. I think there might have been conservative votes in an Thatcherite economic pragmatic approach to the EU and a return to the vote blue go green agenda.SouthamObserver said:
Sunak has never looked more authentic. That is genuine anger - and he is right to speak out as he has. However, this is also the bloke who has spent the last couple of years snuggling up to Reform voters and who was happy to take millions from Frank Hester. If he had taken a different path when he had the chance things may have turned out very differently for him.Big_G_NorthWales said:Sky news showing a visibly angry Rishi Sunak condemning and actually saying the racist slur against him by the Reform volunteer
Apparently the police are now investigating whether an offence has been committed and the Sky report is not going to help Reform with highlighting their pro Putin, racist and misogynistic views
Time for conservatives to wake up and vote for the party to defend it from these vile views and characters
It’s tragic he didn’t go down that path.
You are suggesting they do MORE of that and it will solve their problems. lol
I think we are in a new era1 -
So Hindenburg = Biden, and his younger opponent Hitler = Trump. So Biden is reelected, and later helps Trump become dictator. Comforting.Unpopular said:Just had a thought, Hindenburg was 86 when he ran for re-election...
His full name was apparently:
Paul Ludwig Hans Anton von Beneckendorff de Pfeffel Hindenburg1 -
Is Thatcherite economics soppy? The entrepreneurial spirit has long been lacking in conservative thought. Bringing that back and saying we’re aligning with EU to create wealth might have been refreshing. That’s what she did.Leon said:
And why on earth would someone like me vote for that soppy Blairite shite. That’s why they are in the mess they are. They are a social Democrat party pretending to be conservativeJonathan said:
There’s another universe where Sunak took on the right, ended the culture wars, exposed the Rwanda scheme as the farce it is and returned to Cameron/May pragmatic conservative politics. I think there might have been conservative votes in an Thatcherite economic pragmatic approach to the EU and a return to the vote blue go green agenda.SouthamObserver said:
Sunak has never looked more authentic. That is genuine anger - and he is right to speak out as he has. However, this is also the bloke who has spent the last couple of years snuggling up to Reform voters and who was happy to take millions from Frank Hester. If he had taken a different path when he had the chance things may have turned out very differently for him.Big_G_NorthWales said:Sky news showing a visibly angry Rishi Sunak condemning and actually saying the racist slur against him by the Reform volunteer
Apparently the police are now investigating whether an offence has been committed and the Sky report is not going to help Reform with highlighting their pro Putin, racist and misogynistic views
Time for conservatives to wake up and vote for the party to defend it from these vile views and characters
It’s tragic he didn’t go down that path.
You are suggesting they do MORE of that and it will solve their problems. lol
Furthermore the environment and climate change is an issue strategically suited to conservatives. Again an issue where Thatcher took an early lead.1 -
Ohio has been sorted is my understanding.kamski said:
Well Biden himself might not be on ballot in Ohio. Dems might have to just write Ohio off if it comes to that.Leon said:That analysis I linked claims that the democrats have just 40 days to do this. A new candidate has to be on the Ohio ballot by August 4
Is that true? I don’t know the mechanics of American electoral law - but if that is true I suggest this is probably impossible. There’s not enough time0 -
REPEAT:
It doesn't matter who is on the ballot in November in individual States, so long as there is a Democrat. Remember: it is electors who go to the electoral college. Whether Biden is on the ballot or AN Other, they can still vote for the official candidate (Whitmer or Newsom or whoever) in the electoral college.2
