What's astonishing is that William Hill had 100/1 available on no Scottish Tory seats just a couple of weeks ago.
Of course, they only allowed me 79p, but still.
Rural scots will help the Tories.
Yep - anti-SNP tactical voting is going to help the Tories in Scotland.
Hmmm, this is possible, but I can't make the pieces fit. Given that the Scottish Conservative vote is rural, and given that the polling shows the Scottish Conservatives losing about 40% of their vote share, it looks quite dangerous for them. They won 6 seats in 2019. I think they win two or three seats this time.
As ever the Tory antipathy north of Gretna is underestimated, Unionist Tories will hold their noses, Unionist SLabbers not so much. The days of the Labour hierarchy sending coded messages about tactical voting are past, it would pretty much crap over their 'vote for us to get rid of the Tories' mantra.
Yes. I think there will still be some tactical voting in Scotland, but it'll be in the other direction: Conservatives voting Labour or Lib Dem to keep the SNP out. This is going to have an effect on central belt seats, to be sure. But it won't save rural Tories. SNP: 19 seats, SCon: (I'm going to stick my neck out slightly here) 2
2. Ok. 5 I think. I am only going on gut.Not on in depth facts. I am happy to be corrected.
Well, we'll all be corrected come 5th July. Some of us more than others!
A lot of pb seems to think it's not likely for the Tories to get less than 100 seats simply because it's never happened before. I think at this point we need to take seriously the fact the polls and MRPs could be right
Possible errors are symmetric. The polls and MRPs could be wrong.
The result might be worse for the Tories than they suggest.
I think I have lots of good reasons for making my best guess be generous to the Tories, but I have low confidence and the uncertainty range is large.
Looking forward to the exit poll! 252 hours and 14 minutes to go!
We shouldn't ignore real voting events since the campaign was called, and in council byelections the Tories have been performing more in line with what you might expect if they were about 10% behind, not 20%. Of course Reform aren't bothering to stand in most of those so it's hard to see their effect, but the fact people are turning out and voting Tory does tell us something. There is a resilience there, particularly in Labour-facing seats.
The thing that has done for the Tories is the complete lack of talent. At all levels. Their social media game is absolutely rotten for example. If you decide to narrow your appeal to a small client voter base, in this specific case one of a generation not perhaps naturally at home with social media, you’re catastrophically narrowing your talent pool. That extends all the way up to Rishi.
They turned themselves into the nasty party then the VERY nasty party when Rishi took over at a moment they could have steadied the ship. Even if their polls told them immigration was a topic that exercised their potential voters Rwanda and Braverman repulsed far more than it attracted. Read Saatchi's essay on why voters main concerns are not necessarily what the the party should be seen to be obsessing about
Some vile people there. They need to clean out the pipes.
I'm...just... so... glad... Rishi Sunak.. called an early...eleecczzzzzzzz.....
Is this the only GE in history where everyone in the Conservative Party has given up?
Whilst the campaign has been spectacularly inept, I just have this feeling that there must have been some issue buried deep down to make him cut and run in this way.
I do think it might well be the King. If Sunak was told there was a considerable risk KCIII would die during an autumn election campaign, then we won't hear about it until after KCIII passes away, but it would probably make people think more kindly of Sunak. He went unprepared into an election campaign to ease the concerns of the Monarch.
Though the Tories should have been well-prepared for an election at any time.
Hope you're feeling better - heard you had some ill health.
Our local tory mp hasn't given up. Still paying to get leaflets delivered but suspect his time is up.
Thanks, yes - had a stroke 8 weeks ago. Pretty much back to normal now except for a need to sleep for an hour most afternoons, and occasional struggles with memory.
What's astonishing is that William Hill had 100/1 available on no Scottish Tory seats just a couple of weeks ago.
Of course, they only allowed me 79p, but still.
Rural scots will help the Tories.
Yep - anti-SNP tactical voting is going to help the Tories in Scotland.
Hmmm, this is possible, but I can't make the pieces fit. Given that the Scottish Conservative vote is rural, and given that the polling shows the Scottish Conservatives losing about 40% of their vote share, it looks quite dangerous for them. They won 6 seats in 2019. I think they win two or three seats this time.
As ever the Tory antipathy north of Gretna is underestimated, Unionist Tories will hold their noses, Unionist SLabbers not so much. The days of the Labour hierarchy sending coded messages about tactical voting are past, it would pretty much crap over their 'vote for us to get rid of the Tories' mantra.
Yes. I think there will still be some tactical voting in Scotland, but it'll be in the other direction: Conservatives voting Labour or Lib Dem to keep the SNP out. This is going to have an effect on central belt seats, to be sure. But it won't save rural Tories. SNP: 19 seats, SCon: (I'm going to stick my neck out slightly here) 2
2. Ok. 5 I think. I am only going on gut.Not on in depth facts. I am happy to be corrected.
Well, we'll all be corrected come 5th July. Some of us more than others!
I'm...just... so... glad... Rishi Sunak.. called an early...eleecczzzzzzzz.....
Is this the only GE in history where everyone in the Conservative Party has given up?
Whilst the campaign has been spectacularly inept, I just have this feeling that there must have been some issue buried deep down to make him cut and run in this way.
I do think it might well be the King. If Sunak was told there was a considerable risk KCIII would die during an autumn election campaign, then we won't hear about it until after KCIII passes away, but it would probably make people think more kindly of Sunak. He went unprepared into an election campaign to ease the concerns of the Monarch.
Though the Tories should have been well-prepared for an election at any time.
I’m a bit surprised by the idea that an election would be moved because the monarch “might” die using a period when there “might” be an election. Surely people would be angry if the democratic functioning of the country was determined by the health of the unelected head of state? I’m a monarchist but I don’t think that would be a good look.
For me, the election is over. Postal votes winging their way to the Acting Returning Officer following the 9am collection from out local post box. (Which, incidentally, is the only collection of the day.)
After a "lively discussion", I convinced my eco-authoritarian spouse to vote Labour in order to get rid of Sir Philip, rather than spoiling her ballot.
Millions like us can switch off from the campaign and focus on the footy.
https://www.iaindale.com/articles/is-starmergeddon-coming-for-the-tories ..If what I am hearing is right, CCHQ has more or less given up the ghost. I have heard of three candidates in Tory held seats with majorities of between four and six thousand, who have been ordered to shut down their campaigns and redeploy themselves to help cabinet ministers with majorities in excess of 20,000. And if they refuse, their computer logins to the party systems are cancelled and they’re told they won’t remain on the candidates list after the election...
I wonder how someone in (say) Steve Baker's position would feel about that ?
Given CCHQ has recently lost (to suspension) its heads of data and campaigning, who knows what the party's chief cook and bottle washer and acting campaign manager has decided.
They had somebody in charge of campaigns?
They should surely never run a campaign again, they’ve managed to beat Theresa May.
Surely Isaac Levido is off too, he’s clearly clueless.
I'm looking forward to reading the books that describe the horror of the campaign in all its glory.
I am keen to hear the reasoning that sent Sunak out to make his election-announcing speech in the pouring rain, without an umbrella, and with Steve Bray making Sunak barely audible
Looking back that was probably the high point of the campaign. All downhill since
I think it was a rapid decision (possibly encouraged by people wanting to make a few quid betting) by people who didn't realise that there were very limited places where a political (none Government) announcement could be made.
Hence no backup venue booked so Rishi ended up standing in the rain ruining a suit...
I'm sorry but I don't buy the excuse that there's limited places available within the whole of London to make a political announcement.
Tony Blair launched the 2001 election in a school.
Its not geography, its that Sunak is so incompetent he couldn't think of a single place in the whole of London he could access to make an announcement other than the pouring rain.
I've said before that the reason that all looked so bad wasn't the fact he failed to get an alternative launch venue (although he should have and it's indicative of the way the campaign has been run) but that he didn't acknowledge or make a dumb joke about the rain. It was the weirdness it conveyed, and that's very dangerous.
Yes. The British love a bit of self-deprecatory humour. Making the announcement in the rain is something Boris Johnson would have turned to his advantage.
Sunak after as though the rain wasn't there, but everyone could see it.
I'm...just... so... glad... Rishi Sunak.. called an early...eleecczzzzzzzz.....
Is this the only GE in history where everyone in the Conservative Party has given up?
Whilst the campaign has been spectacularly inept, I just have this feeling that there must have been some issue buried deep down to make him cut and run in this way.
I do think it might well be the King. If Sunak was told there was a considerable risk KCIII would die during an autumn election campaign, then we won't hear about it until after KCIII passes away, but it would probably make people think more kindly of Sunak. He went unprepared into an election campaign to ease the concerns of the Monarch.
Though the Tories should have been well-prepared for an election at any time.
Doesn't pass the smell test for me. Even Tories are not venal enough to bet on the date of an election caused by the King's health concerns and it's impossible to be that exact.
The thing that has done for the Tories is the complete lack of talent. At all levels. Their social media game is absolutely rotten for example. If you decide to narrow your appeal to a small client voter base, in this specific case one of a generation not perhaps naturally at home with social media, you’re catastrophically narrowing your talent pool. That extends all the way up to Rishi.
They turned themselves into the nasty party then the VERY nasty party when Rishi took over at a moment they could have steadied the ship. Even if their polls told them immigration was a topic that exercised their potential voters Rwanda and Braverman repulsed far more than it attracted. Read Saatchi's essay on why voters main concerns are not necessarily what the the party should be seen to be obsessing about
R4 Today is today abandoning daily racing tips. One of those things, like the Shipping Forecast you pay no attention to but is part of life's harmless routine.
Also WRT R4 Today, Heaton-Harris sounded terrible, just as if he had been up all night and wasn't sure where he was.
Why are they abandoning it?
I thought it was a joke. The Today program surely didn't used to have racing tips?
They certainly did, I used to listen to it every day even though I'm not particularly interested in horseracing. It usually only lasted for about 15 seconds, just before 8:30.
And it drives me nuts.
What is the point of giving a tip if you don't give the odds? The most likely winner of each race is normally the favorite, so if you want to tip lots of winners just tip the fav. On the other hand if you want to make money you have to tip at decent odds which means you have to state what those odds are.
Just saying what you think will win is pointless. You may as well say what side a coin will fall if you toss it in the air.
My instant reaction is that for a lot of people horse racing will simply stop existing because the only time they think about it was through Today's racing tips.
The BBC's racing coverage used to be brilliant. It had some outstanding presenters, and not just Sir Peter O'Sullivan. It barely mentions the sport now.
I am told this is largely because the Sport has no supporters at a senior level within the organisation. Cost is undoubtedly a factor too, as is antipathy to a sport in which animals die from time to time.
There was a theory that both BBC and Channel 4 Racing were killed off by the same bloke who moved between those organisations, although probably these were multifaceted decisions with responsibility smeared over committees.
I'm...just... so... glad... Rishi Sunak.. called an early...eleecczzzzzzzz.....
Is this the only GE in history where everyone in the Conservative Party has given up?
Whilst the campaign has been spectacularly inept, I just have this feeling that there must have been some issue buried deep down to make him cut and run in this way.
I do think it might well be the King. If Sunak was told there was a considerable risk KCIII would die during an autumn election campaign, then we won't hear about it until after KCIII passes away, but it would probably make people think more kindly of Sunak. He went unprepared into an election campaign to ease the concerns of the Monarch.
Though the Tories should have been well-prepared for an election at any time.
Unless his guys have before or after bets on the date of the state funeral
I'm...just... so... glad... Rishi Sunak.. called an early...eleecczzzzzzzz.....
Is this the only GE in history where everyone in the Conservative Party has given up?
Whilst the campaign has been spectacularly inept, I just have this feeling that there must have been some issue buried deep down to make him cut and run in this way.
I do think it might well be the King. If Sunak was told there was a considerable risk KCIII would die during an autumn election campaign, then we won't hear about it until after KCIII passes away, but it would probably make people think more kindly of Sunak. He went unprepared into an election campaign to ease the concerns of the Monarch.
Though the Tories should have been well-prepared for an election at any time.
Doesn't pass the smell test for me. Even Tories are not venal enough to bet on the date of an election caused by the King's health concerns and it's impossible to be that exact.
Hang on, why would those betting on the date of the election need to know why Sunak went early?
Not that I think the King's health has anything to do with it. They did it because they knew this was as good as it it would get on the inflation front.
I'm...just... so... glad... Rishi Sunak.. called an early...eleecczzzzzzzz.....
Is this the only GE in history where everyone in the Conservative Party has given up?
Whilst the campaign has been spectacularly inept, I just have this feeling that there must have been some issue buried deep down to make him cut and run in this way.
I do think it might well be the King. If Sunak was told there was a considerable risk KCIII would die during an autumn election campaign, then we won't hear about it until after KCIII passes away, but it would probably make people think more kindly of Sunak. He went unprepared into an election campaign to ease the concerns of the Monarch.
Though the Tories should have been well-prepared for an election at any time.
I’m a bit surprised by the idea that an election would be moved because the monarch “might” die using a period when there “might” be an election. Surely people would be angry if the democratic functioning of the country was determined by the health of the unelected head of state? I’m a monarchist but I don’t think that would be a good look.
I have news for you. Even the everyday business of state is vetted and sometimes changed in light of the monarch's interests. And the fact is, most people don't actually care. I wish they would, but they don't.
I'm...just... so... glad... Rishi Sunak.. called an early...eleecczzzzzzzz.....
Is this the only GE in history where everyone in the Conservative Party has given up?
Whilst the campaign has been spectacularly inept, I just have this feeling that there must have been some issue buried deep down to make him cut and run in this way.
I do think it might well be the King. If Sunak was told there was a considerable risk KCIII would die during an autumn election campaign, then we won't hear about it until after KCIII passes away, but it would probably make people think more kindly of Sunak. He went unprepared into an election campaign to ease the concerns of the Monarch.
Though the Tories should have been well-prepared for an election at any time.
Doesn't pass the smell test for me. Even Tories are not venal enough to bet on the date of an election caused by the King's health concerns and it's impossible to be that exact.
I suspect it's more - bad inflation figures are coming after the good ones in June attached to no chance of tax cuts (and possibly nothing except a single interest rate cut).
https://www.iaindale.com/articles/is-starmergeddon-coming-for-the-tories ..If what I am hearing is right, CCHQ has more or less given up the ghost. I have heard of three candidates in Tory held seats with majorities of between four and six thousand, who have been ordered to shut down their campaigns and redeploy themselves to help cabinet ministers with majorities in excess of 20,000. And if they refuse, their computer logins to the party systems are cancelled and they’re told they won’t remain on the candidates list after the election...
I wonder how someone in (say) Steve Baker's position would feel about that ?
True or not, I'm not at a point in my life where I give a shit about Steve Baker's feelings
He's not going to experience a Charles Kennedy moment after losing his seat but I do worry for him.
Obviously, one has to feel some human sympathy for people in these sorts of circumstances - the nature of elections is that some people win and some lose, but it obviously affects people in different ways.
However, I do wonder whether it will all be a bit of a relief for some of those MPs who lose. Westminster isn't necessarily great for people's mental health, and the mood among Tories who remain after 4th July is unlikely to be that great. A bit of time with family, taking a holiday and so on may not be the worst outcome.
Kennedy was a different case, of course. Being an MP was his whole life from a very young age, he'd been having issues over a period of time, his marriage had ended and so on. It remains extremely sad.
In 2010, I expected to lose, and had ramped up my spare-time involvement in translation in anticipation, as well as putting out feelers for other jobs - I assume many Tory MPs have done something similar. To my astonishment I nearly won, which would have been fun (Broxtowe started as a very safe Tory seat when I won it in 1997), but also would have made it much harder to find another job in 2015 after another 5 years. I think it'd be unusual, though, not to have any job options at all after a stretch in Parliament.
I wonder if anyone has compiled a database of what the outgoing cohort of MPs did for a living before Parliament?
I suspect that many were political animals of some sort (SpAd, party worker, Union organiser etc), and that lawyers are over-represented in Parliament compared to the general population, as are public-sector workers. We do all know one who was a bookmaker!
You make lawyers being over-represented in parliament sound like a bad thing, it is indubitably a good thing.
What's astonishing is that William Hill had 100/1 available on no Scottish Tory seats just a couple of weeks ago.
Of course, they only allowed me 79p, but still.
Rural scots will help the Tories.
Yep - anti-SNP tactical voting is going to help the Tories in Scotland.
Hmmm, this is possible, but I can't make the pieces fit. Given that the Scottish Conservative vote is rural, and given that the polling shows the Scottish Conservatives losing about 40% of their vote share, it looks quite dangerous for them. They won 6 seats in 2019. I think they win two or three seats this time.
As ever the Tory antipathy north of Gretna is underestimated, Unionist Tories will hold their noses, Unionist SLabbers not so much. The days of the Labour hierarchy sending coded messages about tactical voting are past, it would pretty much crap over their 'vote for us to get rid of the Tories' mantra.
Yes. I think there will still be some tactical voting in Scotland, but it'll be in the other direction: Conservatives voting Labour or Lib Dem to keep the SNP out. This is going to have an effect on central belt seats, to be sure. But it won't save rural Tories. SNP: 19 seats, SCon: (I'm going to stick my neck out slightly here) 2
You may know more about this phenomenon than I do - people who are fed up with the SNP but are scared to speak out.
Have been approached both directly and indirectly by people who say they can't vote Tory and would normally vote SNP, but are sick of them. They can't openly say they're voting for me as there is a cultural fear thing going (SNP supporters are Corbyn-level aggressive). But they are switching over...
I'm...just... so... glad... Rishi Sunak.. called an early...eleecczzzzzzzz.....
Is this the only GE in history where everyone in the Conservative Party has given up?
Whilst the campaign has been spectacularly inept, I just have this feeling that there must have been some issue buried deep down to make him cut and run in this way.
I do think it might well be the King. If Sunak was told there was a considerable risk KCIII would die during an autumn election campaign, then we won't hear about it until after KCIII passes away, but it would probably make people think more kindly of Sunak. He went unprepared into an election campaign to ease the concerns of the Monarch.
Though the Tories should have been well-prepared for an election at any time.
Doesn't pass the smell test for me. Even Tories are not venal enough to bet on the date of an election caused by the King's health concerns and it's impossible to be that exact.
And Davey has shown repeatedly that getting wet in an election campaign is not of itself a problem, it's how you get wet.
Before I disappear back into the garden again I'd just like to draw everyone's attention to tomorrow's big event in the Post Office Inquiry.
Gareth Jenkins begins four days of testimony. The sheer length of the inquisition says everything about his significance. He designed the infamous Horizon system and appeared as an Expert Witness for the Post Office. His failure to mention to the Courts the fallibility of the software contributed to numerous unfair convictions. He was,in short, a tainted witness.
How is he going to play it?
He is one of the few to have been questioned already by the Police in respect of possible charges of perjury and conspiracy to pervert the course of justice. The evidence against him appears overwhelming and it is almost certain he would have been charged by now but for the CPS's policy of waiting for the Inquiry to report.
He is over 70 years old. He faces a long stretch if convicted. Will he turn King's Evidence? You might think that would be his best chance. He is not a PO man, so he owes little to the likes of Vennells and Perkins. On the other hand, he is doubtless being supported by his former employer, Fujitsu, if only through the payment of his legal fees. They presumably pay his pension too, so one expects him to be restrained in any criticism of them. How far that helps the PO is difficult to judge. There has been a bit of a blame game going on between F & the PO, but it hasn't broken out into open warfare - yet.
We'll probably know within the first twenty minutes which way his evidence is going to go. Starts 9.45 am. Should be worth getting the popcorn in.
Did you see the evidence last week from the subpostmasters "Union" man?
It was utterly unbelievable. He took the 10 year old official line from the Post Office at every turn and clearly didn't give one hoot about any of his members.
I'm...just... so... glad... Rishi Sunak.. called an early...eleecczzzzzzzz.....
Is this the only GE in history where everyone in the Conservative Party has given up?
Whilst the campaign has been spectacularly inept, I just have this feeling that there must have been some issue buried deep down to make him cut and run in this way.
I do think it might well be the King. If Sunak was told there was a considerable risk KCIII would die during an autumn election campaign, then we won't hear about it until after KCIII passes away, but it would probably make people think more kindly of Sunak. He went unprepared into an election campaign to ease the concerns of the Monarch.
Though the Tories should have been well-prepared for an election at any time.
Doesn't pass the smell test for me. Even Tories are not venal enough to bet on the date of an election caused by the King's health concerns and it's impossible to be that exact.
Proves nothing either way but I thought he looked quite well at Ascot.
I'm...just... so... glad... Rishi Sunak.. called an early...eleecczzzzzzzz.....
Is this the only GE in history where everyone in the Conservative Party has given up?
Whilst the campaign has been spectacularly inept, I just have this feeling that there must have been some issue buried deep down to make him cut and run in this way.
I do think it might well be the King. If Sunak was told there was a considerable risk KCIII would die during an autumn election campaign, then we won't hear about it until after KCIII passes away, but it would probably make people think more kindly of Sunak. He went unprepared into an election campaign to ease the concerns of the Monarch.
Though the Tories should have been well-prepared for an election at any time.
Doesn't pass the smell test for me. Even Tories are not venal enough to bet on the date of an election caused by the King's health concerns and it's impossible to be that exact.
And Davey has shown repeatedly that getting wet in an election campaign is not of itself a problem, it's how you get wet.
Oldies have done well Brought some rigour back to school exam grades Cut NI and increased VAT Stopped ID cards Built some useful roads Increased NHS workforce Full employment
As an Oldie I’m very concerned about my grandchildren. Eldest (teacher) grandson is under considerable pressure in his school, which is in a ‘difficult’ area. And he’s, apparently, a ‘good’ teacher.
Still buzzing about JK Rowling coming out as a literal communist yesterday. We tried to tell you she was cracked and you didn't believe us.
At least it made me check the Communist Party leaflet I received last week (still the only unsolicited election literature I've received) more closely.
Women's Rights Give women full protection of the against domestic violence and misogyny. Pension justice for WASPI women. Protect women's sex-based rights. Equal pay for every type of work. Full rights to socialised child care. End sexism in society.
A bit wooly and it strikes me that Jakey is loading a whole lot of hopium on the highlighted sentence.
For once am actually sad I have a life and didn't get the chance to see the real time reaction to the previous header - which seems to discuss many of the things I have brought up on this forum before.
It reminds me of Varoufakis speaking about Le Pen and Macron recently - they are symbiotic; without the threat of Le Pen, Macron would almost certainly not be president, and without Macron signing up to the same racist rhetoric whilst continuing neoliberal policies, Le Pen would have no legitimacy and dissatisfaction to use as a foundation for her popularity. This relationship keeps the far right out of power, whilst seeing the so called centrists take many of their worst policies anyway...
There is also Melenchon's party which was second in the last legislative elections and which former Socialist President Hollande has now joined
I don't think he has - he's said he'll stand for the New Popular Front which is the umbrella group of all left-wing parties (including the Socialists), but he hasn't joined LFI as far as I can tell.
Still buzzing about JK Rowling coming out as a literal communist yesterday. We tried to tell you she was cracked and you didn't believe us.
At least it made me check the Communist Party leaflet I received last week (still the only unsolicited election literature I've received) more closely.
Women's Rights Give women full protection of the against domestic violence and misogyny. Pension justice for WASPI women. Protect women's sex-based rights. Equal pay for every type of work. Full rights to socialised child care. End sexism in society.
A bit wooly and it strikes me that Jakey is loading a whole lot of hopium on the highlighted sentence.
I'm...just... so... glad... Rishi Sunak.. called an early...eleecczzzzzzzz.....
Is this the only GE in history where everyone in the Conservative Party has given up?
Whilst the campaign has been spectacularly inept, I just have this feeling that there must have been some issue buried deep down to make him cut and run in this way.
Yes, me too. And I don’t buy the morbid theory about the king’s cancer
So it’s something else. What?
One theory is that he’s got a great job offer which will be gone by autumn but I find it hard to believe he’s that selfish - and he’s not poor
What else?!
Well we have various areas about to fall apart
Universities - and the stories I've heard tell me that the issues may be irreversible Justice - prisons are full yet there are cases from 2018/9 without court dates Transport - latest story is fares will need to rise to reduce demand as WCML capacity is about to drop 8% due to the HS2 screwups. Government Finances - we know there was no chance of another tax cut... Rwanda - were no flights possible?
but none of those explain why you wake up on Monday and decide to call an election that week...
The entire university system is about to collapse worldwide. Within the next 5 years
Why.
Given the poster - AI?
Who needs to be educated when AI has all the answers?
Hope you're feeling better - heard you had some ill health.
Our local tory mp hasn't given up. Still paying to get leaflets delivered but suspect his time is up.
Thanks, yes - had a stroke 8 weeks ago. Pretty much back to normal now except for a need to sleep for an hour most afternoons, and occasional struggles with memory.
Sorry to hear that @NickPalmer. I missed that on here. Glad you are feeling better now.
For once am actually sad I have a life and didn't get the chance to see the real time reaction to the previous header - which seems to discuss many of the things I have brought up on this forum before.
It reminds me of Varoufakis speaking about Le Pen and Macron recently - they are symbiotic; without the threat of Le Pen, Macron would almost certainly not be president, and without Macron signing up to the same racist rhetoric whilst continuing neoliberal policies, Le Pen would have no legitimacy and dissatisfaction to use as a foundation for her popularity. This relationship keeps the far right out of power, whilst seeing the so called centrists take many of their worst policies anyway...
There is also Melenchon's party which was second in the last legislative elections and which former Socialist President Hollande has now joined
I don't think he has - he's said he'll stand for the New Popular Front which is the umbrella group of all left-wing parties (including the Socialists), but he hasn't joined LFI as far as I can tell.
The largest party in the New Popular Front by far is Melenchon's so Melenchon will effectively lead it
Update report from Basingstoke for @HorseCorrectBattery Labour boards now starting to go up outside houses. I had a good long walk yesterday around there were Labour signs outside some very well to do houses in some very Tory wards that make up the constituency. Spotted Labour canvassers in the town centre ward on Saturday door knocking. Still no sightings of Maria Miller or any evidence of a Tory campaign on the ground. Only leaflets just before the postal votes landed, including a curious one that said 'Keir Starmer wants you to vote Reform'. I have a feeling that message from Ms Miller may well be counter-productive... North West Hampshire next door also looking a bit dicey for the Tories as well - that's going to depend on Labour turnout in Andover I think.
R4 Today is today abandoning daily racing tips. One of those things, like the Shipping Forecast you pay no attention to but is part of life's harmless routine.
Also WRT R4 Today, Heaton-Harris sounded terrible, just as if he had been up all night and wasn't sure where he was.
Why are they abandoning it?
I thought it was a joke. The Today program surely didn't used to have racing tips?
They certainly did, I used to listen to it every day even though I'm not particularly interested in horseracing. It usually only lasted for about 15 seconds, just before 8:30.
And it drives me nuts.
What is the point of giving a tip if you don't give the odds? The most likely winner of each race is normally the favorite, so if you want to tip lots of winners just tip the fav. On the other hand if you want to make money you have to tip at decent odds which means you have to state what those odds are.
Just saying what you think will win is pointless. You may as well say what side a coin will fall if you toss it in the air.
My instant reaction is that for a lot of people horse racing will simply stop existing because the only time they think about it was through Today's racing tips.
The BBC's racing coverage used to be brilliant. It had some outstanding presenters, and not just Sir Peter O'Sullivan. It barely mentions the sport now.
I am told this is largely because the Sport has no supporters at a senior level within the organisation. Cost is undoubtedly a factor too, as is antipathy to a sport in which animals die from time to time.
There was a theory that both BBC and Channel 4 Racing were killed off by the same bloke who moved between those organisations, although probably these were multifaceted decisions with responsibility smeared over committees.
To be fair, we had a situation when a sport was covered extensively on two channels for decades - you had both BBC and ITV which covered the sport differently.
Then came Channel 4 Racing which moved coverage into the modern era and now ITV Racing which does a tremendous job regularly winning awards for production and we have two specialist channels in Sky Sports Racing and Racing TV for the real fans so horse racing continues to do well and every Royal Ascot race last week was shown free to air.
Compare, for example, with show jumping which used to be a mainstay of BBC coverage but is now hardly ever shown. The Jumping Derby at Hickstead used to enjoy national tv coverage in August but is now never shown. As for three day eventing, both Badminton and Burghley were shown on national tv extensively (especially the cross country and the show jumping) and now a bit of highlights at best.
Money talks - the sports with money get the coverage whether on mainstream tv or Sky but it's never been a better time if you can afford it to watch football, cricket and golf for example and horse racing still does well but if changes to Gambling legislation are introduced and for example bookmaker advertising is banned will that continue?
I'm...just... so... glad... Rishi Sunak.. called an early...eleecczzzzzzzz.....
Is this the only GE in history where everyone in the Conservative Party has given up?
Whilst the campaign has been spectacularly inept, I just have this feeling that there must have been some issue buried deep down to make him cut and run in this way.
Yes, me too. And I don’t buy the morbid theory about the king’s cancer
So it’s something else. What?
One theory is that he’s got a great job offer which will be gone by autumn but I find it hard to believe he’s that selfish - and he’s not poor
What else?!
Also: they knew the terrible migration stats were in the post. They must have seen them beforehand and winced. And still they went for an election???
Why not just hang on until winter when they might have sent some full planes to Rwanda and the boat people take a break anyway
None of it adds up - unless there is some obscured and occulted reason we cannot see
Also, by going now, Rishi ensured that even after the good news that inflation is down, the Bank of England cannot reduce interest rates (and hence mortgage rates) owing to purdah.
If Sunak WAS in some way forced, then this has to be an internal Conservative thing. Letters to Sir Graham etc,
On the other hand, we can not exclude the most likely option, that Sunak is just really, truly, exceptionally inept at politics.
On the Euros front, very important that England beat Slovenia (and by a few goals). It doesn't just secure top spot, it reduces the changes of playing Austria or Netherlands in the Last 16. We will need either Croatia or Czech Republic to get something in their final games.
Update report from Basingstoke for @HorseCorrectBattery Labour boards now starting to go up outside houses. I had a good long walk yesterday around there were Labour signs outside some very well to do houses in some very Tory wards that make up the constituency. Spotted Labour canvassers in the town centre ward on Saturday door knocking. Still no sightings of Maria Miller or any evidence of a Tory campaign on the ground. Only leaflets just before the postal votes landed, including a curious one that said 'Keir Starmer wants you to vote Reform'. I have a feeling that message from Ms Miller may well be counter-productive... North West Hampshire next door also looking a bit dicey for the Tories as well - that's going to depend on Labour turnout in Andover I think.
I'm...just... so... glad... Rishi Sunak.. called an early...eleecczzzzzzzz.....
Is this the only GE in history where everyone in the Conservative Party has given up?
Whilst the campaign has been spectacularly inept, I just have this feeling that there must have been some issue buried deep down to make him cut and run in this way.
I do think it might well be the King. If Sunak was told there was a considerable risk KCIII would die during an autumn election campaign, then we won't hear about it until after KCIII passes away, but it would probably make people think more kindly of Sunak. He went unprepared into an election campaign to ease the concerns of the Monarch.
Though the Tories should have been well-prepared for an election at any time.
It was nothing to do with the King, the King looked fine at Trooping the Colour. It was because Braverman was near the numbers for a VONC in Sunak
Hope you're feeling better - heard you had some ill health.
Our local tory mp hasn't given up. Still paying to get leaflets delivered but suspect his time is up.
Thanks, yes - had a stroke 8 weeks ago. Pretty much back to normal now except for a need to sleep for an hour most afternoons, and occasional struggles with memory.
That's pretty much where I'm at now! Keep on keeping on..
I'm...just... so... glad... Rishi Sunak.. called an early...eleecczzzzzzzz.....
Is this the only GE in history where everyone in the Conservative Party has given up?
Whilst the campaign has been spectacularly inept, I just have this feeling that there must have been some issue buried deep down to make him cut and run in this way.
Yes, me too. And I don’t buy the morbid theory about the king’s cancer
So it’s something else. What?
One theory is that he’s got a great job offer which will be gone by autumn but I find it hard to believe he’s that selfish - and he’s not poor
What else?!
Also: they knew the terrible migration stats were in the post. They must have seen them beforehand and winced. And still they went for an election???
Why not just hang on until winter when they might have sent some full planes to Rwanda and the boat people take a break anyway
None of it adds up - unless there is some obscured and occulted reason we cannot see
Also, by going now, Rishi ensured that even after the good news that inflation is down, the Bank of England cannot reduce interest rates (and hence mortgage rates) owing to purdah.
If Sunak WAS in some way forced, then this has to be an internal Conservative thing. Letters to Sir Graham etc,
On the other hand, we can not exclude the most likely option, that Sunak is just really, truly, exceptionally inept at politics.
Was thinking about my comment last night re Sade’s ex-boyfriend. In the mid/late 90s I got in with a crowd of Royal College of Art graduates born in the late 50s/early 60s who moved to and bought up most of Hoxton and Shoreditch in the late Thatcher/early Major years. They’d started a deeply ironic post-modern rugby club (it still exists) I joined. One of them was the bloke I mentioned last night who went out with Sade. They are all, without exception, absolutely loaded. Fine Art and Fashion graduates. It was only then I realised I had first hand experience of how lucky that generation got it. For all their anti-establishment credentials I wonder how many of them will vote Tory this time out?
I'm...just... so... glad... Rishi Sunak.. called an early...eleecczzzzzzzz.....
Is this the only GE in history where everyone in the Conservative Party has given up?
Whilst the campaign has been spectacularly inept, I just have this feeling that there must have been some issue buried deep down to make him cut and run in this way.
I do think it might well be the King. If Sunak was told there was a considerable risk KCIII would die during an autumn election campaign, then we won't hear about it until after KCIII passes away, but it would probably make people think more kindly of Sunak. He went unprepared into an election campaign to ease the concerns of the Monarch.
Though the Tories should have been well-prepared for an election at any time.
It was nothing to do with the King, the King looked fine at Trooping the Colour. It was because Braverman was near the numbers for a VONC in Sunak
Still buzzing about JK Rowling coming out as a literal communist yesterday. We tried to tell you she was cracked and you didn't believe us.
At least it made me check the Communist Party leaflet I received last week (still the only unsolicited election literature I've received) more closely.
Women's Rights Give women full protection of the against domestic violence and misogyny. Pension justice for WASPI women. Protect women's sex-based rights. Equal pay for every type of work. Full rights to socialised child care. End sexism in society.
A bit wooly and it strikes me that Jakey is loading a whole lot of hopium on the highlighted sentence.
"Protect women's sex-based rights" and "End sexism in society" are contradictory. Sex-based rights are sexist by definition.
Hope you're feeling better - heard you had some ill health.
Our local tory mp hasn't given up. Still paying to get leaflets delivered but suspect his time is up.
Thanks, yes - had a stroke 8 weeks ago. Pretty much back to normal now except for a need to sleep for an hour most afternoons, and occasional struggles with memory.
That's pretty much where I'm at now! Keep on keeping on..
I'm...just... so... glad... Rishi Sunak.. called an early...eleecczzzzzzzz.....
Is this the only GE in history where everyone in the Conservative Party has given up?
Whilst the campaign has been spectacularly inept, I just have this feeling that there must have been some issue buried deep down to make him cut and run in this way.
I do think it might well be the King. If Sunak was told there was a considerable risk KCIII would die during an autumn election campaign, then we won't hear about it until after KCIII passes away, but it would probably make people think more kindly of Sunak. He went unprepared into an election campaign to ease the concerns of the Monarch.
Though the Tories should have been well-prepared for an election at any time.
I’m a bit surprised by the idea that an election would be moved because the monarch “might” die using a period when there “might” be an election. Surely people would be angry if the democratic functioning of the country was determined by the health of the unelected head of state? I’m a monarchist but I don’t think that would be a good look.
Indeed, King William Vth could easily call a GE and appoint a new PM anyway, even if a short period of mourning and funeral was needed for his father
On the Euros front, very important that England beat Slovenia (and by a few goals). It doesn't just secure top spot, it reduces the changes of playing Austria or Netherlands in the Last 16. We will need either Croatia or Czech Republic to get something in their final games.
Can you explain that to me? Why does GD matter? Something to do with the way the third-place qualifiers are sorted?
Update report from Basingstoke for @HorseCorrectBattery Labour boards now starting to go up outside houses. I had a good long walk yesterday around there were Labour signs outside some very well to do houses in some very Tory wards that make up the constituency. Spotted Labour canvassers in the town centre ward on Saturday door knocking. Still no sightings of Maria Miller or any evidence of a Tory campaign on the ground. Only leaflets just before the postal votes landed, including a curious one that said 'Keir Starmer wants you to vote Reform'. I have a feeling that message from Ms Miller may well be counter-productive... North West Hampshire next door also looking a bit dicey for the Tories as well - that's going to depend on Labour turnout in Andover I think.
The Tories aren't going to lose NW Hampshire. They probably will lose Basingstoke though.
Lawyers. Yes Like the Usa. Loads of them and they pass laws that help them and their mates in the trade. A old boys and Girls club.
I've been quite impressed by the lawyers at the Post Office Inquiry.
I’ve been very impressed by Jason Beer KC, and somewhat less impressed with the long line of counsel, prosecutors, and investigators, that the PO employed over more than two decades.
I'm...just... so... glad... Rishi Sunak.. called an early...eleecczzzzzzzz.....
Is this the only GE in history where everyone in the Conservative Party has given up?
Whilst the campaign has been spectacularly inept, I just have this feeling that there must have been some issue buried deep down to make him cut and run in this way.
Yes, me too. And I don’t buy the morbid theory about the king’s cancer
So it’s something else. What?
One theory is that he’s got a great job offer which will be gone by autumn but I find it hard to believe he’s that selfish - and he’s not poor
What else?!
Also: they knew the terrible migration stats were in the post. They must have seen them beforehand and winced. And still they went for an election???
Why not just hang on until winter when they might have sent some full planes to Rwanda and the boat people take a break anyway
None of it adds up - unless there is some obscured and occulted reason we cannot see
Also, by going now, Rishi ensured that even after the good news that inflation is down, the Bank of England cannot reduce interest rates (and hence mortgage rates) owing to purdah.
If Sunak WAS in some way forced, then this has to be an internal Conservative thing. Letters to Sir Graham etc,
On the other hand, we can not exclude the most likely option, that Sunak is just really, truly, exceptionally inept at politics.
Update report from Basingstoke for @HorseCorrectBattery Labour boards now starting to go up outside houses. I had a good long walk yesterday around there were Labour signs outside some very well to do houses in some very Tory wards that make up the constituency. Spotted Labour canvassers in the town centre ward on Saturday door knocking. Still no sightings of Maria Miller or any evidence of a Tory campaign on the ground. Only leaflets just before the postal votes landed, including a curious one that said 'Keir Starmer wants you to vote Reform'. I have a feeling that message from Ms Miller may well be counter-productive... North West Hampshire next door also looking a bit dicey for the Tories as well - that's going to depend on Labour turnout in Andover I think.
The Tories aren't going to lose NW Hampshire. They probably will lose Basingstoke though.
Hope you're feeling better - heard you had some ill health.
Our local tory mp hasn't given up. Still paying to get leaflets delivered but suspect his time is up.
Thanks, yes - had a stroke 8 weeks ago. Pretty much back to normal now except for a need to sleep for an hour most afternoons, and occasional struggles with memory.
That's pretty much where I'm at now! Keep on keeping on..
Get well!
Thanks, but to avoid any unnecessary sympathy that's just approaching decrepitude with me. Am about to leave a rotten job so hopefully that will help (no, I'm not an (insert party of choice) MP).
Hope you're feeling better - heard you had some ill health.
Our local tory mp hasn't given up. Still paying to get leaflets delivered but suspect his time is up.
Thanks, yes - had a stroke 8 weeks ago. Pretty much back to normal now except for a need to sleep for an hour most afternoons, and occasional struggles with memory.
That's pretty much where I'm at now! Keep on keeping on..
Get well!
Thanks, but to avoid any unnecessary sympathy that's just approaching decrepitude with me. Am about to leave a rotten job so hopefully that will help (no, I'm not an (insert party of choice) MP).
What's astonishing is that William Hill had 100/1 available on no Scottish Tory seats just a couple of weeks ago.
Of course, they only allowed me 79p, but still.
Rural scots will help the Tories.
Yep - anti-SNP tactical voting is going to help the Tories in Scotland.
Hmmm, this is possible, but I can't make the pieces fit. Given that the Scottish Conservative vote is rural, and given that the polling shows the Scottish Conservatives losing about 40% of their vote share, it looks quite dangerous for them. They won 6 seats in 2019. I think they win two or three seats this time.
As ever the Tory antipathy north of Gretna is underestimated, Unionist Tories will hold their noses, Unionist SLabbers not so much. The days of the Labour hierarchy sending coded messages about tactical voting are past, it would pretty much crap over their 'vote for us to get rid of the Tories' mantra.
Yes. I think there will still be some tactical voting in Scotland, but it'll be in the other direction: Conservatives voting Labour or Lib Dem to keep the SNP out. This is going to have an effect on central belt seats, to be sure. But it won't save rural Tories. SNP: 19 seats, SCon: (I'm going to stick my neck out slightly here) 2
I think the Tories will only lose the new Aberdeenshire North and Moray East and Gordon and Buchan seats which were largely SNP in 1997 anyway and maybe Dumfries and Galloway which went Labour in 1997.
I think they will hold Roxburgh and Berwickshire, Dumfrieshire, Clydesdale and Tweedale and Aberdeenshire W and Kincardine which were LD in 1997 given the LD voteshare is lower now than it was back then still
Before I disappear back into the garden again I'd just like to draw everyone's attention to tomorrow's big event in the Post Office Inquiry.
Gareth Jenkins begins four days of testimony. The sheer length of the inquisition says everything about his significance. He designed the infamous Horizon system and appeared as an Expert Witness for the Post Office. His failure to mention to the Courts the fallibility of the software contributed to numerous unfair convictions. He was,in short, a tainted witness.
How is he going to play it?
He is one of the few to have been questioned already by the Police in respect of possible charges of perjury and conspiracy to pervert the course of justice. The evidence against him appears overwhelming and it is almost certain he would have been charged by now but for the CPS's policy of waiting for the Inquiry to report.
He is over 70 years old. He faces a long stretch if convicted. Will he turn King's Evidence? You might think that would be his best chance. He is not a PO man, so he owes little to the likes of Vennells and Perkins. On the other hand, he is doubtless being supported by his former employer, Fujitsu, if only through the payment of his legal fees. They presumably pay his pension too, so one expects him to be restrained in any criticism of them. How far that helps the PO is difficult to judge. There has been a bit of a blame game going on between F & the PO, but it hasn't broken out into open warfare - yet.
We'll probably know within the first twenty minutes which way his evidence is going to go. Starts 9.45 am. Should be worth getting the popcorn in.
Did you see the evidence last week from the subpostmasters "Union" man?
It was utterly unbelievable. He took the 10 year old official line from the Post Office at every turn and clearly didn't give one hoot about any of his members.
Something very odd there.
It’s been made clear in the Private Eye stories and in the ITV film that the Union was, in the old phrase, about as much use as a chocolate teapot. There was one Union official, to be fair, who did some digging, but he didn’t follow through, and in any event was pretty smartly sidelined.
I'm...just... so... glad... Rishi Sunak.. called an early...eleecczzzzzzzz.....
Is this the only GE in history where everyone in the Conservative Party has given up?
Whilst the campaign has been spectacularly inept, I just have this feeling that there must have been some issue buried deep down to make him cut and run in this way.
I do think it might well be the King. If Sunak was told there was a considerable risk KCIII would die during an autumn election campaign, then we won't hear about it until after KCIII passes away, but it would probably make people think more kindly of Sunak. He went unprepared into an election campaign to ease the concerns of the Monarch.
Though the Tories should have been well-prepared for an election at any time.
It was nothing to do with the King, the King looked fine at Trooping the Colour. It was because Braverman was near the numbers for a VONC in Sunak
My hunch is that Sunak had just had enough. Having boxed himself in by saying the GE would be in H2, he went for the earliest opportunity just to get it over and done with.
It really must be a bit like requiring an amputation before anaesthetics - you can put it off and put it off but in the end you just need to get it done.
The Isle of Wight is being split in two for this election. I was just thinking it would be funny if one of the seats went to the Greens and the other to RefUK.
Update report from Basingstoke for @HorseCorrectBattery Labour boards now starting to go up outside houses. I had a good long walk yesterday around there were Labour signs outside some very well to do houses in some very Tory wards that make up the constituency. Spotted Labour canvassers in the town centre ward on Saturday door knocking. Still no sightings of Maria Miller or any evidence of a Tory campaign on the ground. Only leaflets just before the postal votes landed, including a curious one that said 'Keir Starmer wants you to vote Reform'. I have a feeling that message from Ms Miller may well be counter-productive... North West Hampshire next door also looking a bit dicey for the Tories as well - that's going to depend on Labour turnout in Andover I think.
The Tories aren't going to lose NW Hampshire. They probably will lose Basingstoke though.
Indeed, the higher the rural percentage of a constituency and the lower the percentage of town or city, the safer the seat is likely to be for the Tories this election (apart from a few Remainy rural bits of Oxfordshire and Surrey)
Update report from Basingstoke for @HorseCorrectBattery Labour boards now starting to go up outside houses. I had a good long walk yesterday around there were Labour signs outside some very well to do houses in some very Tory wards that make up the constituency. Spotted Labour canvassers in the town centre ward on Saturday door knocking. Still no sightings of Maria Miller or any evidence of a Tory campaign on the ground. Only leaflets just before the postal votes landed, including a curious one that said 'Keir Starmer wants you to vote Reform'. I have a feeling that message from Ms Miller may well be counter-productive... North West Hampshire next door also looking a bit dicey for the Tories as well - that's going to depend on Labour turnout in Andover I think.
The Tories aren't going to lose NW Hampshire. They probably will lose Basingstoke though.
On the Euros front, very important that England beat Slovenia (and by a few goals). It doesn't just secure top spot, it reduces the changes of playing Austria or Netherlands in the Last 16. We will need either Croatia or Czech Republic to get something in their final games.
Can you explain that to me? Why does GD matter? Something to do with the way the third-place qualifiers are sorted?
Yes, a 1-0 England win would leave Slovenia on 2 points and a -1 difference (I'm assuming Denmark beat Serbia - they might not). Croatia draw with Italy and they have 2 points but a -3 goal difference.
Before I disappear back into the garden again I'd just like to draw everyone's attention to tomorrow's big event in the Post Office Inquiry.
Gareth Jenkins begins four days of testimony. The sheer length of the inquisition says everything about his significance. He designed the infamous Horizon system and appeared as an Expert Witness for the Post Office. His failure to mention to the Courts the fallibility of the software contributed to numerous unfair convictions. He was,in short, a tainted witness.
How is he going to play it?
He is one of the few to have been questioned already by the Police in respect of possible charges of perjury and conspiracy to pervert the course of justice. The evidence against him appears overwhelming and it is almost certain he would have been charged by now but for the CPS's policy of waiting for the Inquiry to report.
He is over 70 years old. He faces a long stretch if convicted. Will he turn King's Evidence? You might think that would be his best chance. He is not a PO man, so he owes little to the likes of Vennells and Perkins. On the other hand, he is doubtless being supported by his former employer, Fujitsu, if only through the payment of his legal fees. They presumably pay his pension too, so one expects him to be restrained in any criticism of them. How far that helps the PO is difficult to judge. There has been a bit of a blame game going on between F & the PO, but it hasn't broken out into open warfare - yet.
We'll probably know within the first twenty minutes which way his evidence is going to go. Starts 9.45 am. Should be worth getting the popcorn in.
Did you see the evidence last week from the subpostmasters "Union" man?
It was utterly unbelievable. He took the 10 year old official line from the Post Office at every turn and clearly didn't give one hoot about any of his members.
Something very odd there.
It’s been made clear in the Private Eye stories and in the ITV film that the Union was, in the old phrase, about as much use as a chocolate teapot. There was one Union official, to be fair, who did some digging, but he didn’t follow through, and in any event was pretty smartly sidelined.
Apparently also pretty well funded by the Post Office.
I'm...just... so... glad... Rishi Sunak.. called an early...eleecczzzzzzzz.....
Is this the only GE in history where everyone in the Conservative Party has given up?
Whilst the campaign has been spectacularly inept, I just have this feeling that there must have been some issue buried deep down to make him cut and run in this way.
Update report from Basingstoke for @HorseCorrectBattery Labour boards now starting to go up outside houses. I had a good long walk yesterday around there were Labour signs outside some very well to do houses in some very Tory wards that make up the constituency. Spotted Labour canvassers in the town centre ward on Saturday door knocking. Still no sightings of Maria Miller or any evidence of a Tory campaign on the ground. Only leaflets just before the postal votes landed, including a curious one that said 'Keir Starmer wants you to vote Reform'. I have a feeling that message from Ms Miller may well be counter-productive... North West Hampshire next door also looking a bit dicey for the Tories as well - that's going to depend on Labour turnout in Andover I think.
The Tories aren't going to lose NW Hampshire. They probably will lose Basingstoke though.
I see.
What do you mean by "I see"?
I feel you are right about Basingstoke. Miller will not hold it.
Unlike most on here, I would pin the Tories' woes almost entirely on Sunak, rather than Johnson and Truss. Here's why. Johnson and Truss both departed under a cloud. When he took over, Sunak had the chance to be a breath of fresh air - remember, at that time he was pretty popular with the public (Dishy Rishi) following his Covid largesse and his seeming intelligence and rationality. He really did have a chance to blow away the cobwebs deposited by Johnson and Truss and revitalise the Tory Party's sense of purpose.
But Sunak blew it. Why? Because rather than being a fresh start, he attempted to follow Johnson's playbook, which regarded governing as being a never-ending state of campaigning. Don't do what's best - do what is (perceived to be) popular. The quality of governance didn't improve under Sunak - it possibly even got worse. Pragmatic policy-making was neglected by campaigning rhetoric about small boats, Rwanda, ULEZ/war on motorists, trans stuff, and many other poor decisions like HS2 took the place of coherent decision and policy-making.
In summary - it's Sunak fault. He never got anywhere near establishing a coherent narrative for the future of the country under the Tories that he could sell on the doorstep.
Hope you're feeling better - heard you had some ill health.
Our local tory mp hasn't given up. Still paying to get leaflets delivered but suspect his time is up.
Thanks, yes - had a stroke 8 weeks ago. Pretty much back to normal now except for a need to sleep for an hour most afternoons, and occasional struggles with memory.
That's pretty much where I'm at now! Keep on keeping on..
I'm...just... so... glad... Rishi Sunak.. called an early...eleecczzzzzzzz.....
Is this the only GE in history where everyone in the Conservative Party has given up?
Whilst the campaign has been spectacularly inept, I just have this feeling that there must have been some issue buried deep down to make him cut and run in this way.
I do think it might well be the King. If Sunak was told there was a considerable risk KCIII would die during an autumn election campaign, then we won't hear about it until after KCIII passes away, but it would probably make people think more kindly of Sunak. He went unprepared into an election campaign to ease the concerns of the Monarch.
Though the Tories should have been well-prepared for an election at any time.
Doesn't pass the smell test for me. Even Tories are not venal enough to bet on the date of an election caused by the King's health concerns and it's impossible to be that exact.
Proves nothing either way but I thought he looked quite well at Ascot.
People seem to see him and think different things. Some say he looks well (as I do) and others say he looks really ill. I think sometimes its your preconceptions. I had this when in remission for leukeamia - neighbours of my mother in law saw me and later said how unwell I looked. And I wasn't - I was in complete molecular remission and had been for two months. They 'saw' what they expected to see - a cancer patient still in treatment.
@Anabobazina - Groups D and E look just about locked in, so the option are:
ABDE - E ACDE - D (this is what it is as it stands) ADEF - F BCDE - D BDEF - E CDEF - E
Only in the last one where C and F get above A does England not play D. That requires either Georgia to beat Portugal or Czech Republic to beat Turkey. Far safer to beat Slovenia and hope C doesn't make it through.
Was thinking about my comment last night re Sade’s ex-boyfriend. In the mid/late 90s I got in with a crowd of Royal College of Art graduates born in the late 50s/early 60s who moved to and bought up most of Hoxton and Shoreditch in the late Thatcher/early Major years. They’d started a deeply ironic post-modern rugby club (it still exists) I joined. One of them was the bloke I mentioned last night who went out with Sade. They are all, without exception, absolutely loaded. Fine Art and Fashion graduates. It was only then I realised I had first hand experience of how lucky that generation got it. For all their anti-establishment credentials I wonder how many of them will vote Tory this time out?
IIRC Robert Elms was Sade's boyfriend for a while. He was quite a big cultural figure for a while in the 80s/90s.
https://www.iaindale.com/articles/is-starmergeddon-coming-for-the-tories ..If what I am hearing is right, CCHQ has more or less given up the ghost. I have heard of three candidates in Tory held seats with majorities of between four and six thousand, who have been ordered to shut down their campaigns and redeploy themselves to help cabinet ministers with majorities in excess of 20,000. And if they refuse, their computer logins to the party systems are cancelled and they’re told they won’t remain on the candidates list after the election...
I wonder how someone in (say) Steve Baker's position would feel about that ?
True or not, I'm not at a point in my life where I give a shit about Steve Baker's feelings
He's not going to experience a Charles Kennedy moment after losing his seat but I do worry for him.
Obviously, one has to feel some human sympathy for people in these sorts of circumstances - the nature of elections is that some people win and some lose, but it obviously affects people in different ways.
However, I do wonder whether it will all be a bit of a relief for some of those MPs who lose. Westminster isn't necessarily great for people's mental health, and the mood among Tories who remain after 4th July is unlikely to be that great. A bit of time with family, taking a holiday and so on may not be the worst outcome.
Kennedy was a different case, of course. Being an MP was his whole life from a very young age, he'd been having issues over a period of time, his marriage had ended and so on. It remains extremely sad.
In 2010, I expected to lose, and had ramped up my spare-time involvement in translation in anticipation, as well as putting out feelers for other jobs - I assume many Tory MPs have done something similar. To my astonishment I nearly won, which would have been fun (Broxtowe started as a very safe Tory seat when I won it in 1997), but also would have made it much harder to find another job in 2015 after another 5 years. I think it'd be unusual, though, not to have any job options at all after a stretch in Parliament.
I wonder if anyone has compiled a database of what the outgoing cohort of MPs did for a living before Parliament?
I suspect that many were political animals of some sort (SpAd, party worker, Union organiser etc), and that lawyers are over-represented in Parliament compared to the general population, as are public-sector workers. We do all know one who was a bookmaker!
You make lawyers being over-represented in parliament sound like a bad thing, it is indubitably a good thing.
Agreed. It keeps them from doing damage elsewhere!
On the Euros front, very important that England beat Slovenia (and by a few goals). It doesn't just secure top spot, it reduces the changes of playing Austria or Netherlands in the Last 16. We will need either Croatia or Czech Republic to get something in their final games.
Can you explain that to me? Why does GD matter? Something to do with the way the third-place qualifiers are sorted?
Yes, a 1-0 England win would leave Slovenia on 2 points and a -1 difference (I'm assuming Denmark beat Serbia - they might not). Croatia draw with Italy and they have 2 points but a -3 goal difference.
Another weird twist is that unless Albania beat Spain tonight we go through tonight. Admittedly we need to win the group to avoid the Germans.
https://www.iaindale.com/articles/is-starmergeddon-coming-for-the-tories ..If what I am hearing is right, CCHQ has more or less given up the ghost. I have heard of three candidates in Tory held seats with majorities of between four and six thousand, who have been ordered to shut down their campaigns and redeploy themselves to help cabinet ministers with majorities in excess of 20,000. And if they refuse, their computer logins to the party systems are cancelled and they’re told they won’t remain on the candidates list after the election...
I wonder how someone in (say) Steve Baker's position would feel about that ?
True or not, I'm not at a point in my life where I give a shit about Steve Baker's feelings
Isn't that rather the wrong attitude? You might disagree with Baker on virtually everything, but he appears to be a very decent bloke with integrity, and politics would be better for more of them on all sides. I would say the same about the late Frank Field (with whom I agreed very little), or possibly even Denis Skinner (with whom I agree even less).
I'd rather have a parliament made up of that quality of MP even if I largely disagree with them, than most of the current crop (on both sides of the house) which seems to be comprised of two faced PR men whose only thought on every issue is "what's in it for me".
Unlike most on here, I would pin the Tories' woes almost entirely on Sunak, rather than Johnson and Truss. Here's why. Johnson and Truss both departed under a cloud. When he took over, Sunak had the chance to be a breath of fresh air - remember, at that time he was pretty popular with the public (Dishy Rishi) following his Covid largesse and his seeming intelligence and rationality. He really did have a chance to blow away the cobwebs deposited by Johnson and Truss and revitalise the Tory Party's sense of purpose.
But Sunak blew it. Why? Because rather than being a fresh start, he attempted to follow Johnson's playbook, which regarded governing as being a never-ending state of campaigning. Don't do what's best - do what is (perceived to be) popular. The quality of governance didn't improve under Sunak - it possibly even got worse. Pragmatic policy-making was neglected by campaigning rhetoric about small boats, Rwanda, ULEZ/war on motorists, trans stuff, and many other poor decisions like HS2 took the place of coherent decision and policy-making.
In summary - it's Sunak fault. He never got anywhere near establishing a coherent narrative for the future of the country under the Tories that he could sell on the doorstep.
Yes I liked Sunak the Chancellor and had he steered clearly to the centre would have been open to voting for him. If he had steered Faragist some of those would have been open to voting for him.
Instead he has tried to overtriangulate, given indications of both moving centrist and populist, executed and communicated terribly, failed to deliver for any of centrists, populists or party loyalists and annoyed us all. He is lucky to be on 20% still.
https://www.iaindale.com/articles/is-starmergeddon-coming-for-the-tories ..If what I am hearing is right, CCHQ has more or less given up the ghost. I have heard of three candidates in Tory held seats with majorities of between four and six thousand, who have been ordered to shut down their campaigns and redeploy themselves to help cabinet ministers with majorities in excess of 20,000. And if they refuse, their computer logins to the party systems are cancelled and they’re told they won’t remain on the candidates list after the election...
I wonder how someone in (say) Steve Baker's position would feel about that ?
True or not, I'm not at a point in my life where I give a shit about Steve Baker's feelings
Isn't that rather the wrong attitude? You might disagree with Baker on virtually everything, but he appears to be a very decent bloke with integrity, and politics would be better for more of them on all sides. I would say the same about the late Frank Field (with whom I agreed very little), or possibly even Denis Skinner (with whom I agree even less).
I'd rather have a parliament made up of that quality of MP even if I largely disagree with them, than most of the current crop (on both sides of the house) which seems to be comprised of two faced PR men whose only thought on every issue is "what's in it for me".
He is a unhappy person. Deep down I would bet on it.
Still buzzing about JK Rowling coming out as a literal communist yesterday. We tried to tell you she was cracked and you didn't believe us.
At least it made me check the Communist Party leaflet I received last week (still the only unsolicited election literature I've received) more closely.
Women's Rights Give women full protection of the against domestic violence and misogyny. Pension justice for WASPI women. Protect women's sex-based rights. Equal pay for every type of work. Full rights to socialised child care. End sexism in society.
A bit wooly and it strikes me that Jakey is loading a whole lot of hopium on the highlighted sentence.
"Protect women's sex-based rights" and "End sexism in society" are contradictory. Sex-based rights are sexist by definition.
Not really. Maternity leave, for example, is a sex based right. You're stretching a definition to breaking point to say that is sexist. Even in the absence of paternity leave, leave for the mother at and after the time of the birth is not sexist even if there is no male equivalent.
I'm...just... so... glad... Rishi Sunak.. called an early...eleecczzzzzzzz.....
Is this the only GE in history where everyone in the Conservative Party has given up?
Whilst the campaign has been spectacularly inept, I just have this feeling that there must have been some issue buried deep down to make him cut and run in this way.
I do think it might well be the King. If Sunak was told there was a considerable risk KCIII would die during an autumn election campaign, then we won't hear about it until after KCIII passes away, but it would probably make people think more kindly of Sunak. He went unprepared into an election campaign to ease the concerns of the Monarch.
Though the Tories should have been well-prepared for an election at any time.
I’m a bit surprised by the idea that an election would be moved because the monarch “might” die using a period when there “might” be an election. Surely people would be angry if the democratic functioning of the country was determined by the health of the unelected head of state? I’m a monarchist but I don’t think that would be a good look.
I think it would be very problematic to have a monarch die during an election campaign, and to have the election campaign suspended for a couple of weeks.
Obviously all sorts of things happen unexpectedly during an election campaign, but if there's a much higher likelihood it would be irresponsible not to try to avoid it.
What's astonishing is that William Hill had 100/1 available on no Scottish Tory seats just a couple of weeks ago.
Of course, they only allowed me 79p, but still.
Rural scots will help the Tories.
Yep - anti-SNP tactical voting is going to help the Tories in Scotland.
Hmmm, this is possible, but I can't make the pieces fit. Given that the Scottish Conservative vote is rural, and given that the polling shows the Scottish Conservatives losing about 40% of their vote share, it looks quite dangerous for them. They won 6 seats in 2019. I think they win two or three seats this time.
They could win more seats in Scotland than London.
What's astonishing is that William Hill had 100/1 available on no Scottish Tory seats just a couple of weeks ago.
Of course, they only allowed me 79p, but still.
Rural scots will help the Tories.
Yep - anti-SNP tactical voting is going to help the Tories in Scotland.
Hmmm, this is possible, but I can't make the pieces fit. Given that the Scottish Conservative vote is rural, and given that the polling shows the Scottish Conservatives losing about 40% of their vote share, it looks quite dangerous for them. They won 6 seats in 2019. I think they win two or three seats this time.
They could win more seats in Scotland than London.
https://www.iaindale.com/articles/is-starmergeddon-coming-for-the-tories ..If what I am hearing is right, CCHQ has more or less given up the ghost. I have heard of three candidates in Tory held seats with majorities of between four and six thousand, who have been ordered to shut down their campaigns and redeploy themselves to help cabinet ministers with majorities in excess of 20,000. And if they refuse, their computer logins to the party systems are cancelled and they’re told they won’t remain on the candidates list after the election...
I wonder how someone in (say) Steve Baker's position would feel about that ?
True or not, I'm not at a point in my life where I give a shit about Steve Baker's feelings
Isn't that rather the wrong attitude? You might disagree with Baker on virtually everything, but he appears to be a very decent bloke with integrity, and politics would be better for more of them on all sides. I would say the same about the late Frank Field (with whom I agreed very little), or possibly even Denis Skinner (with whom I agree even less).
I'd rather have a parliament made up of that quality of MP even if I largely disagree with them, than most of the current crop (on both sides of the house) which seems to be comprised of two faced PR men whose only thought on every issue is "what's in it for me".
Baker is all right. Was the only polite Brexiteer and has since acknowledged his own actions were at times unnecessarily divisive. I probably only agree with him on 20-30% of "stuff" but would quite possibly vote for him.
Hope you're feeling better - heard you had some ill health.
Our local tory mp hasn't given up. Still paying to get leaflets delivered but suspect his time is up.
Thanks, yes - had a stroke 8 weeks ago. Pretty much back to normal now except for a need to sleep for an hour most afternoons, and occasional struggles with memory.
That's pretty much where I'm at now! Keep on keeping on..
Blimey, PBers have been through the wars on the health front.
A lot of pb seems to think it's not likely for the Tories to get less than 100 seats simply because it's never happened before. I think at this point we need to take seriously the fact the polls and MRPs could be right
Looking at the MRPs of course they all have Twickenham as super safe for Lib Dems and some seaats varying by a few % here or there.
To find the real differences/best model I'd suggest the following:
Greens > 20% away in North Herefordshire, > 25% away Waveney Valley {Electoral Calculus} (Modified UNS) Lab Gain Brighton Pavilion, whilst Greens gain North Herefordshire and Waveney Valley {IPSOS} Reform Gain Castle Point {New Statesman} Lib Dems take North Shropshire by > 20% and is 18th safest seat in election and top target seats for Greens mathematically are Waveney and North Herefordshire but ~ 12% off in each {Yougov}
I don't have access to the Telegraph MRP weeds but it obviously "looks" more correct with a lower Tory seat total.
https://www.iaindale.com/articles/is-starmergeddon-coming-for-the-tories ..If what I am hearing is right, CCHQ has more or less given up the ghost. I have heard of three candidates in Tory held seats with majorities of between four and six thousand, who have been ordered to shut down their campaigns and redeploy themselves to help cabinet ministers with majorities in excess of 20,000. And if they refuse, their computer logins to the party systems are cancelled and they’re told they won’t remain on the candidates list after the election...
I wonder how someone in (say) Steve Baker's position would feel about that ?
True or not, I'm not at a point in my life where I give a shit about Steve Baker's feelings
Isn't that rather the wrong attitude? You might disagree with Baker on virtually everything, but he appears to be a very decent bloke with integrity, and politics would be better for more of them on all sides. I would say the same about the late Frank Field (with whom I agreed very little), or possibly even Denis Skinner (with whom I agree even less).
I'd rather have a parliament made up of that quality of MP even if I largely disagree with them, than most of the current crop (on both sides of the house) which seems to be comprised of two faced PR men whose only thought on every issue is "what's in it for me".
He is a unhappy person. Deep down I would bet on it.
Not exactly a revelation that a man who has talked extensively about his battles with depression has been unhappy.
FWIW it seems like he's a decent man, and while there's plenty I disagree with him on, at least he has his vision of how to improve the country, unlike a lot of the benches, who see their job as that of a social worker, or are there for the cheap booze.
What's astonishing is that William Hill had 100/1 available on no Scottish Tory seats just a couple of weeks ago.
Of course, they only allowed me 79p, but still.
Rural scots will help the Tories.
Yep - anti-SNP tactical voting is going to help the Tories in Scotland.
Hmmm, this is possible, but I can't make the pieces fit. Given that the Scottish Conservative vote is rural, and given that the polling shows the Scottish Conservatives losing about 40% of their vote share, it looks quite dangerous for them. They won 6 seats in 2019. I think they win two or three seats this time.
They could win more seats in Scotland than London.
WIl they win Havering? London cabbie country?
Hello Gov.Would you like to go round the Norh circular again mate?
@Anabobazina - Groups D and E look just about locked in, so the option are:
ABDE - E ACDE - D (this is what it is as it stands) ADEF - F BCDE - D BDEF - E CDEF - E
Only in the last one where C and F get above A does England not play D. That requires either Georgia to beat Portugal or Czech Republic to beat Turkey. Far safer to beat Slovenia and hope C doesn't make it through.
Cheers. Will buy the paper on my way into the office and take a look.
Lots of people talking about Tom Tugendhat being the One Nation candidate for the leadership, but they seem to have forgotten that he's quite likely to lose his seat to the LDs.
https://www.iaindale.com/articles/is-starmergeddon-coming-for-the-tories ..If what I am hearing is right, CCHQ has more or less given up the ghost. I have heard of three candidates in Tory held seats with majorities of between four and six thousand, who have been ordered to shut down their campaigns and redeploy themselves to help cabinet ministers with majorities in excess of 20,000. And if they refuse, their computer logins to the party systems are cancelled and they’re told they won’t remain on the candidates list after the election...
I wonder how someone in (say) Steve Baker's position would feel about that ?
True or not, I'm not at a point in my life where I give a shit about Steve Baker's feelings
Isn't that rather the wrong attitude? You might disagree with Baker on virtually everything, but he appears to be a very decent bloke with integrity, and politics would be better for more of them on all sides. I would say the same about the late Frank Field (with whom I agreed very little), or possibly even Denis Skinner (with whom I agree even less).
I'd rather have a parliament made up of that quality of MP even if I largely disagree with them, than most of the current crop (on both sides of the house) which seems to be comprised of two faced PR men whose only thought on every issue is "what's in it for me".
He is a unhappy person. Deep down I would bet on it.
Not exactly a revelation that a man who has talked extensively about his battles with depression has been unhappy.
FWIW it seems like he's a decent man, and while there's plenty I disagree with him on, at least he has his vision of how to improve the country, unlike a lot of the benches, who see their job as that of a social worker, or are there for the cheap booze.
I have sympathy for anyone with that. We are all human after all.
Comments
Though the Tories should have been well-prepared for an election at any time.
We tried to tell you she was cracked and you didn't believe us.
Sunak after as though the rain wasn't there, but everyone could see it.
Not that I think the King's health has anything to do with it. They did it because they knew this was as good as it it would get on the inflation front.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/feb/08/royals-vetted-more-than-1000-laws-via-queens-consent#:~:text=More than 1,000 laws have,parliament, the Guardian has established.
Have been approached both directly and indirectly by people who say they can't vote Tory and would normally vote SNP, but are sick of them. They can't openly say they're voting for me as there is a cultural fear thing going (SNP supporters are Corbyn-level aggressive). But they are switching over...
Should stick to what he's really good at.
The diabolical Democrats waited until after the election was over to interfere with it.
https://x.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1805055834910490683
It was utterly unbelievable. He took the 10 year old official line from the Post Office at every turn and clearly didn't give one hoot about any of his members.
Something very odd there.
And he’s, apparently, a ‘good’ teacher.
Women's Rights
Give women full protection of the against domestic violence and misogyny. Pension justice for WASPI women. Protect women's sex-based rights. Equal pay for every type of work. Full rights to socialised child care. End sexism in society.
A bit wooly and it strikes me that Jakey is loading a whole lot of hopium on the highlighted sentence.
My irony meter is working great.
Then came Channel 4 Racing which moved coverage into the modern era and now ITV Racing which does a tremendous job regularly winning awards for production and we have two specialist channels in Sky Sports Racing and Racing TV for the real fans so horse racing continues to do well and every Royal Ascot race last week was shown free to air.
Compare, for example, with show jumping which used to be a mainstay of BBC coverage but is now hardly ever shown. The Jumping Derby at Hickstead used to enjoy national tv coverage in August but is now never shown. As for three day eventing, both Badminton and Burghley were shown on national tv extensively (especially the cross country and the show jumping) and now a bit of highlights at best.
Money talks - the sports with money get the coverage whether on mainstream tv or Sky but it's never been a better time if you can afford it to watch football, cricket and golf for example and horse racing still does well but if changes to Gambling legislation are introduced and for example bookmaker advertising is banned will that continue?
On the other hand, we can not exclude the most likely option, that Sunak is just really, truly, exceptionally inept at politics.
Though I suppose some of the lawyer witnesses have made quite the impression, too.
But he has a great act of "I'm just a simple soldier trying to do my best in politics" whilst veteran homelessness goes up...
I think they will hold Roxburgh and Berwickshire, Dumfrieshire, Clydesdale and Tweedale and Aberdeenshire W and Kincardine which were LD in 1997 given the LD voteshare is lower now than it was back then still
There was one Union official, to be fair, who did some digging, but he didn’t follow through, and in any event was pretty smartly sidelined.
It really must be a bit like requiring an amputation before anaesthetics - you can put it off and put it off but in the end you just need to get it done.
I worked with quite a few ex-forces officers on their second careers - my God, some of them were very dim.
Good schools though.
https://x.com/patriottakes/status/1804860486627873142
But Sunak blew it. Why? Because rather than being a fresh start, he attempted to follow Johnson's playbook, which regarded governing as being a never-ending state of campaigning. Don't do what's best - do what is (perceived to be) popular. The quality of governance didn't improve under Sunak - it possibly even got worse. Pragmatic policy-making was neglected by campaigning rhetoric about small boats, Rwanda, ULEZ/war on motorists, trans stuff, and many other poor decisions like HS2 took the place of coherent decision and policy-making.
In summary - it's Sunak fault. He never got anywhere near establishing a coherent narrative for the future of the country under the Tories that he could sell on the doorstep.
ABDE - E
ACDE - D (this is what it is as it stands)
ADEF - F
BCDE - D
BDEF - E
CDEF - E
Only in the last one where C and F get above A does England not play D. That requires either Georgia to beat Portugal or Czech Republic to beat Turkey. Far safer to beat Slovenia and hope C doesn't make it through.
https://x.com/darrenmccaffrey/status/1805164027435229251
I'd rather have a parliament made up of that quality of MP even if I largely disagree with them, than most of the current crop (on both sides of the house) which seems to be comprised of two faced PR men whose only thought on every issue is "what's in it for me".
Instead he has tried to overtriangulate, given indications of both moving centrist and populist, executed and communicated terribly, failed to deliver for any of centrists, populists or party loyalists and annoyed us all. He is lucky to be on 20% still.
Obviously all sorts of things happen unexpectedly during an election campaign, but if there's a much higher likelihood it would be irresponsible not to try to avoid it.
As a Republican, it sounds very sensible.
Hope you all look after yourselves.
To find the real differences/best model I'd suggest the following:
Greens > 20% away in North Herefordshire, > 25% away Waveney Valley {Electoral Calculus} (Modified UNS)
Lab Gain Brighton Pavilion, whilst Greens gain North Herefordshire and Waveney Valley {IPSOS}
Reform Gain Castle Point {New Statesman}
Lib Dems take North Shropshire by > 20% and is 18th safest seat in election and top target seats for Greens mathematically are Waveney and North Herefordshire but ~ 12% off in each {Yougov}
I don't have access to the Telegraph MRP weeds but it obviously "looks" more correct with a lower Tory seat total.
Fairly often I'd have thought.
FWIW it seems like he's a decent man, and while there's plenty I disagree with him on, at least he has his vision of how to improve the country, unlike a lot of the benches, who see their job as that of a social worker, or are there for the cheap booze.