Right now it is a very confused picture as to whether the Tories are ahead of Reform or vice versa.
This comes at a point where millions of postal votes will be being cast by a section of the electorate that leans heavily towards elderly Tory/Reform voters. Most of these votes will have been cast before it becomes clear who is the stronger in many seats.
The worst situation for the right is a relatively even split between Tory and Reform and that appears to be where we are right now. The right needs one or the other to become clearly dominant in the next week or so if it is going to derail a Labour super majority.
My best case scenario is that the vote shares of both the Tories and Reform are just so inefficiently distributed across parliamentary seats that it fucks them both. Lets say both of them get between 15% - 20% nationally, under FPTP, we could actually see neither party winning any seats. Is that likely, of course not, but it would be hilarious.
Except of course it would mean Leon winning his bet and we would literally never hear the end of it.
No, if I win - as now seems likely - my 1000/1 bet with @Sandpit I hereby promise to stop talking about it daily by the summer of 2029
That was advantage betting as the outcome still wasn't a certainty. It effectively allowed the sharps to be one point ahead in knowledge to feed their models.
How is it possible for major reform of CCHQ? They aren’t exactly likely to sack themselves for being blindingly incompetent for a long time.
I don’t know how they are structured but is there a way a coup can happen and dump out the idiots who have been running things and appointing or selecting jokers who are haunting the party now?
Everything from staffing to candidate selection (Mayor of London mess) seems to be a terrible joke and for all Rishi’s deficiencies it’s not helped by a dysfunctional political operation behind him or whoever takes over.
The lessons learnt folder will come out. The clear lessons we will learn is that the Conservative was too mean to transgender asylum seekers, and all future candidates will need to declare their pronouns, and only those willing to identify as they/them will be eligible to stand in an existing conservative seat.
Astonishing news that the CCHQ director of campaigns has now taken a leave of absence while his wife - a Con candidate - is being investigated for placing a bet on the date of the election.
It encapsulates both the incompetence and corruption at the heart of this sorry government (or indeed their contempt for democracy). This is the sort of thing that can cut through as well. They deserve the kicking that is hopefully coming to them.
I may be in the minority, but is it not possible that those who had a tip about the election genuinely thought there was nothing wrong in using said tip for a wager? I know ignorance of the law (is this is legal thing, or terms and conditions with the betting firm?) is not a defence.
There also seems to be a grey area. I placed bets on the day that things were leaking out, but before the official announcement. Was that illegal?
This is politics. Legally (betting law isn't my thing) it might not be a problem. To the untrained eye, including that of this lawyer, it is.
A parallel which may be useful is the law of theft. To be theft, the action has to be 'dishonest' since appropriating property belonging to another (drinking a can of coke from my friend's mum's kitchen without asking anyone on a single occasion, picking up a single golf ball on a golf course with no players apparently around) will not be dishonest, even though it it otherwise theft.
English law wisely leaves this question to the magistrate/jury. I think it will do the same here. There is a grey area between 'DYOR' and 'inside information'.
It’s insider trading - the really stupid bit is that you may get a meal out of it but no more..
Greatest news for us savers as we have been persecuted since 2009.
Interest rates stay at 5.25%
UK interest rates have been left unchanged at 5.25% by the Bank of England.
The Bank has held rates at 5.25% for the seventh time, in an effort to combat inflation, leading to higher mortgage repayments but also higher savings rates.
Not as bad as it could have been. Bailey will clearly take two other MPC members over the top with him in August to add to the two doves. Nice start to SKS term having an almost immediate interest rate cut.
Astonishing news that the CCHQ director of campaigns has now taken a leave of absence while his wife - a Con candidate - is being investigated for placing a bet on the date of the election.
It encapsulates both the incompetence and corruption at the heart of this sorry government (or indeed their contempt for democracy). This is the sort of thing that can cut through as well. They deserve the kicking that is hopefully coming to them.
I may be in the minority, but is it not possible that those who had a tip about the election genuinely thought there was nothing wrong in using said tip for a wager? I know ignorance of the law (is this is legal thing, or terms and conditions with the betting firm?) is not a defence.
There also seems to be a grey area. I placed bets on the day that things were leaking out, but before the official announcement. Was that illegal?
This is politics. Legally (betting law isn't my thing) it might not be a problem. To the untrained eye, including that of this lawyer, it is.
I think it's a stupid thing to do for sure, but I'm curious to see where this goes legally. Personally, I think bookies lay odds on these things at their own risk.
Personally, I avoid betting on things which are individual decisions.
These clowns are so stupid they did not get an unknown 3rd party to put the bets on , explains why the country is circling the drain.
They shouldn't have to, malc. This is yet another example of a thing being punished for no good reason. It is legal to gamble.
In fixed-odds bookmaking, the bookmaker knows that there may be people on the other side of the bet with insider information. When people start piling on implausible candidates (eg "The Next Doctor Who Is Jodie Whittaker" in 2016 or "...Is Peter Capaldi" in 2013) the proper response is for the bookmakers to take it on the chin and suspend the market.
PB prides itself on being for free speech (unless it's speech it doesn't like) and against cancellation (except for the people it wants cancelled). We should be loudly decrying this violation of the gambler's rights and interfering with their gambling, not nodding and winking at it.
I never thought I'd be acting for Conservative Party personnel, but it's a topsy-turvy world these days.
Astonishing news that the CCHQ director of campaigns has now taken a leave of absence while his wife - a Con candidate - is being investigated for placing a bet on the date of the election.
It encapsulates both the incompetence and corruption at the heart of this sorry government (or indeed their contempt for democracy). This is the sort of thing that can cut through as well. They deserve the kicking that is hopefully coming to them.
I may be in the minority, but is it not possible that those who had a tip about the election genuinely thought there was nothing wrong in using said tip for a wager? I know ignorance of the law (is this is legal thing, or terms and conditions with the betting firm?) is not a defence.
There also seems to be a grey area. I placed bets on the day that things were leaking out, but before the official announcement. Was that illegal?
This is politics. Legally (betting law isn't my thing) it might not be a problem. To the untrained eye, including that of this lawyer, it is.
A parallel which may be useful is the law of theft. To be theft, the action has to be 'dishonest' since appropriating property belonging to another (drinking a can of coke from my friend's mum's kitchen without asking anyone on a single occasion, picking up a single golf ball on a golf course with no players apparently around) will not be dishonest, even though it it otherwise theft.
English law wisely leaves this question to the magistrate/jury. I think it will do the same here. There is a grey area between 'DYOR' and 'inside information'.
It’s insider trading - the really stupid bit is that you may get a meal out of it but no more..
It can't be "insider trading", as placing fixed odds bets is not legally "trading".
Astonishing news that the CCHQ director of campaigns has now taken a leave of absence while his wife - a Con candidate - is being investigated for placing a bet on the date of the election.
It encapsulates both the incompetence and corruption at the heart of this sorry government (or indeed their contempt for democracy). This is the sort of thing that can cut through as well. They deserve the kicking that is hopefully coming to them.
I may be in the minority, but is it not possible that those who had a tip about the election genuinely thought there was nothing wrong in using said tip for a wager? I know ignorance of the law (is this is legal thing, or terms and conditions with the betting firm?) is not a defence.
There also seems to be a grey area. I placed bets on the day that things were leaking out, but before the official announcement. Was that illegal?
This is politics. Legally (betting law isn't my thing) it might not be a problem. To the untrained eye, including that of this lawyer, it is.
I think it's a stupid thing to do for sure, but I'm curious to see where this goes legally. Personally, I think bookies lay odds on these things at their own risk.
Personally, I avoid betting on things which are individual decisions.
The most stupid bet to make is winner of something like the EPL at the start of the season. Having your money locked up for 9 months for a single outcome.
Cliff notes. Not all inflation is falling. Services still going up at 6%. Even the whole basket hasn't been falling the past 4 months. There is the weird effects of the Ukraine / Russia war still in the numbers, but some abnormal months that showed large reductions in inflation due to big energy price swings will drop out of the numbers shortly to be replaced by projected continued above 2% inflated prices.
That was advantage betting as the outcome still wasn't a certainty. It effectively allowed the sharps to be one point ahead in knowledge to feed their models.
One of the episodes deals with courtsiding and I seem to recall the guy wanted to find a doddery old woman umpire who was slow to enter each point into the electronic system. Betting after the point is won is a bit different.
These clowns are so stupid they did not get an unknown 3rd party to put the bets on , explains why the country is circling the drain.
They shouldn't have to, malc. This is yet another example of a thing being punished for no good reason. It is legal to gamble.
In fixed-odds bookmaking, the bookmaker knows that there may be people on the other side of the bet with insider information. When people start piling on implausible candidates (eg "The Next Doctor Who Is Jodie Whittaker" in 2016 or "...Is Peter Capaldi" in 2013) the proper response is for the bookmakers to take it on the chin and suspend the market.
PB prides itself on being for free speech (unless it's speech it doesn't like) and against cancellation (except for the people it wants cancelled). We should be loudly decrying this violation of the gambler's rights and interfering with their gambling, not nodding and winking at it.
I never thought I'd be acting for Conservative Party personnel, but it's a topsy-turvy world these days.
All fine and well but good luck explaining that on the doorstep.
The killer element is that the police officer(s) are being investigated for misconduct in public office, while the politicians are not. I KNOW WHY, but the contrast is just utterly miserable. You now have people feeling sorry for Constables of the Met ffs!
That's one vote for the Tories in Sheffield Hallam.
My vote is 100% influenced by wanting to keep His Excellency The Right Honourable The Lord Cameron of Chipping Norton as Foreign Secretary.
Oh aye, like that’s gonna happen.
Didn’t you previously say you were minded not to vote Tory? Are you Big G-like in your flip floppery?!
I’m only joshing, I don’t blame you, or him, for returning to the fold. You both seem to have longstanding, heartfelt, tribal feelings for the party. It’s not something I understand personally, but it must be difficult to see an organisation you have such an affinity, a connection, with in such deep, deep shit.
I’ll never forgive the Tories for what they’ve done to this country for the last 14 years, for the damage austerity has brought to my part of the Red Wall, the closed libraries and sports centres, the crumbling public realm, the hard-pressed public services, the slow, wilful destruction of the NHS. And I’ll never forgive them for stripping me of my European citizenship and Freedom of Movement, for their weakness in standing up to their nutters.
I want them to get a good fucking hammering. I want their handling of the last 14 years to be clearly, unequivocally, decisively rejected by the public. I want them to be chastened, to have their time in the wilderness, to renew. But I don’t want them destroyed. Because as bad as they are - and I hate the party with a passion even though I have plenty of Tory friends -Farage is worse.
The number of people I know who are voting Tory is quite extraordinary. I think it's one of those habits that are hard to break. If it wasn't for PB and my belief in polls I would be putting my house on at least a hung parliament
Roger, you're a wealthy retired tampon ad executive, educated at a minor public school, who mainly lives in Villefranche-sur-Mer
Your social circle is probably quite unusual, and may indeed be limited to 24/7 private nurses
I have a wide circle of friends and family, home and abroad, rich and poor, who are a real mix, arty and geeky, you name it. In the past they've been everything from SWP to BNP, but mainly Labour and Tory, with a couple of Libs, Nits and UKIPs
Not a single one is definitely voting Tory. One was edging that way but the Reform Manifesto has tempted her to Farage
I can therefore believe these stories of total wipe-out (sorry @Sandpit). Unless there is a shy Tory effect at work, but I don't believe it, people aren't embarrassed about voting Tory or not voting Tory, they just despise them, quietly or loudly. A shy Reform vote is more likely, because Farage
What about a deal. You stop calling me 'a tampon ad exec' and I'll stop referring to you (accurately) as the winner of the Henry Miller award for the worst sex book ever written.
That was advantage betting as the outcome still wasn't a certainty. It effectively allowed the sharps to be one point ahead in knowledge to feed their models.
One of the episodes deals with courtsiding and I seem to recall the guy wanted to find a doddery old woman umpire who was slow to enter each point into the electronic system. Betting after the point is won is a bit different.
I have seen it. It was rubbish programme. As somebody who did this for 10 years, it was mostly total BS.
Cliff notes. Not all inflation is falling. Services still going up at 6%. Even the whole basket hasn't been falling the past 4 months. There is the weird effects of the Ukraine / Russia war still in the numbers, but some abnormal months that showed large reductions in inflation due to big energy price swings will drop out of the numbers shortly to be replaced by projected continued above 2% inflated prices.
It was mentioned in passing last month that it’s last years energy swings that are behind the current fall and with that disappearing soon inflation will be higher come July /August
Most often done at tennis matches, you attend a sporting event in person and bet just as something happens. You'd have one guy at the match and another at home on his laptop ready to press "submit bet" at the right moment.
That's one vote for the Tories in Sheffield Hallam.
My vote is 100% influenced by wanting to keep His Excellency The Right Honourable The Lord Cameron of Chipping Norton as Foreign Secretary.
Oh aye, like that’s gonna happen.
Didn’t you previously say you were minded not to vote Tory? Are you Big G-like in your flip floppery?!
I’m only joshing, I don’t blame you, or him, for returning to the fold. You both seem to have longstanding, heartfelt, tribal feelings for the party. It’s not something I understand personally, but it must be difficult to see an organisation you have such an affinity, a connection, with in such deep, deep shit.
I’ll never forgive the Tories for what they’ve done to this country for the last 14 years, for the damage austerity has brought to my part of the Red Wall, the closed libraries and sports centres, the crumbling public realm, the hard-pressed public services, the slow, wilful destruction of the NHS. And I’ll never forgive them for stripping me of my European citizenship and Freedom of Movement, for their weakness in standing up to their nutters.
I want them to get a good fucking hammering. I want their handling of the last 14 years to be clearly, unequivocally, decisively rejected by the public. I want them to be chastened, to have their time in the wilderness, to renew. But I don’t want them destroyed. Because as bad as they are - and I hate the party with a passion even though I have plenty of Tory friends -Farage is worse.
The number of people I know who are voting Tory is quite extraordinary. I think it's one of those habits that are hard to break. If it wasn't for PB and my belief in polls I would be putting my house on at least a hung parliament
Roger, you're a wealthy retired tampon ad executive, educated at a minor public school, who mainly lives in Villefranche-sur-Mer
Your social circle is probably quite unusual, and may indeed be limited to 24/7 private nurses
I have a wide circle of friends and family, home and abroad, rich and poor, who are a real mix, arty and geeky, you name it. In the past they've been everything from SWP to BNP, but mainly Labour and Tory, with a couple of Libs, Nits and UKIPs
Not a single one is definitely voting Tory. One was edging that way but the Reform Manifesto has tempted her to Farage
I can therefore believe these stories of total wipe-out (sorry @Sandpit). Unless there is a shy Tory effect at work, but I don't believe it, people aren't embarrassed about voting Tory or not voting Tory, they just despise them, quietly or loudly. A shy Reform vote is more likely, because Farage
What about a deal. You stop calling me 'a tampon ad exec' and I'll stop referring to you (accurately) as the winner of the Henry Miller award for the worst sex book ever written.
On the thread - just to say as someone who lives in Gloucester, part of which is now in Tewkesbury I agree with Peter the Punter. I think the latest yougov mrp is about right, with the Conservatives just favourites. The Lib Dems will win if they can get get Labour voters to vote tactically. Certainly the possibility of a surprise.
Boris Johnson has announced the release date for his “unrestrained” memoir in which he will give his account of his time in Downing Street. The former prime minister’s book, called Unleashed, will be published by William Collins on Oct 10 this year, with Harper releasing it in the United States five days later.
He is never writing that Shakespeare book is he....
Most often done at tennis matches, you attend a sporting event in person and bet just as something happens. You'd have one guy at the match and another at home on his laptop ready to press "submit bet" at the right moment.
Was a choice between the Lib Dem who continually posts incorrect gibberish in the comments section of the local rag or Labour - Tories ruled out for many reasons one of which is the dubious history of the law firm of our current MP.
Hopefully next time I will have a choice of candidates
How is it possible for major reform of CCHQ? They aren’t exactly likely to sack themselves for being blindingly incompetent for a long time.
I don’t know how they are structured but is there a way a coup can happen and dump out the idiots who have been running things and appointing or selecting jokers who are haunting the party now?
Everything from staffing to candidate selection (Mayor of London mess) seems to be a terrible joke and for all Rishi’s deficiencies it’s not helped by a dysfunctional political operation behind him or whoever takes over.
The lessons learnt folder will come out. The clear lessons we will learn is that the Conservative was too mean to transgender asylum seekers, and all future candidates will need to declare their pronouns, and only those willing to identify as they/them will be eligible to stand in an existing conservative seat.
Boris Johnson has announced the release date for his “unrestrained” memoir in which he will give his account of his time in Downing Street. The former prime minister’s book, called Unleashed, will be published by William Collins on Oct 10 this year, with Harper releasing it in the United States five days later.
He is never writing that Shakespeare book is he....
Pity. I was hoping he'd call it The Art of the Death Toll
Most often done at tennis matches, you attend a sporting event in person and bet just as something happens. You'd have one guy at the match and another at home on his laptop ready to press "submit bet" at the right moment.
Is TV not live then? I thought it was.
No had always been some delay, but with some modern feeds / streams, there is a really significant delay.
Boris Johnson has announced the release date for his “unrestrained” memoir in which he will give his account of his time in Downing Street. The former prime minister’s book, called Unleashed, will be published by William Collins on Oct 10 this year, with Harper releasing it in the United States five days later.
He is never writing that Shakespeare book is he....
He could combine the two and title his account of his time in Downing Street A Comedy of Errors.
I doubt any of the betting claims we’ve heard will end in a criminal conviction, because absent some sort of officially-embargoed data (inflation data etc), proving that it’s secret or wrongfully-obtained or whatever is like nailing jelly to a wall. It also seems from what I’ve read that the bar is pretty high anyway.
*However*, I still think - certainly in the case of candidates and political insiders - it’s valid and fair to expose the conduct and let voters decide what they make of it. (And although some hammered it beyond the point of reasonableness, I’d say the same of Angela Rayner’s housing, where it does seem the system was gamed).
Worth remembering that one of the biggest political scandals of recent decades - MPs’ expenses - consisted of barely any illegal acts. But it was conduct which voters found repellent and judged accordingly.
Most often done at tennis matches, you attend a sporting event in person and bet just as something happens. You'd have one guy at the match and another at home on his laptop ready to press "submit bet" at the right moment.
Is TV not live then? I thought it was.
No had always been some delay, but with some modern feeds / streams, there is a really significant delay.
There are a number of additional steps required to digitise to images relatively to realtime. One of which is you need the next key frame (so 0.5 seconds later) to calculate the intermediate changes
Add network latancy and attempts to minimise bandwidth usage and you can introduce serious delays - I find 6 music can be 30 seconds behind streaming relative to DAB and were it Radio 2 you would discover there is a delay added to FM nowadays to ensure FM and DAB are in sync.
I doubt any of the betting claims we’ve heard will end in a criminal conviction, because absent some sort of officially-embargoed data (inflation data etc), proving that it’s secret or wrongfully-obtained or whatever is like nailing jelly to a wall. It also seems from what I’ve read that the bar is pretty high anyway.
*However*, I still think - certainly in the case of candidates and political insiders - it’s valid and fair to expose the conduct and let voters decide what they make of it. (And although some hammered it beyond the point of reasonableness, I’d say the same of Angela Rayner’s housing, where it does seem the system was gamed).
Worth remembering that one of the biggest political scandals of recent decades - MPs’ expenses - consisted of barely any illegal acts. But it was conduct which voters found repellent and judged accordingly.
There were certainly most illegal acts than were prosecuted. The problem is everything just got thrown into a massive heap, ranging between people who actually didn't do anything morally or legally wrong but the Telegraph had to get their story of the day through to some extremely extremely dodgy looking situations.
Most often done at tennis matches, you attend a sporting event in person and bet just as something happens. You'd have one guy at the match and another at home on his laptop ready to press "submit bet" at the right moment.
Is TV not live then? I thought it was.
No had always been some delay, but with some modern feeds / streams, there is a really significant delay.
I really want to watch the BBC games in UHD (or whatever it is), but that means a minute's delay. No good when England are playing, that's for sure.
Most often done at tennis matches, you attend a sporting event in person and bet just as something happens. You'd have one guy at the match and another at home on his laptop ready to press "submit bet" at the right moment.
Is TV not live then? I thought it was.
No had always been some delay, but with some modern feeds / streams, there is a really significant delay.
There are a number of additional steps required to digitise to images relatively to realtime. One of which is you need the next key frame (so 0.5 seconds later) to calculate the intermediate changes
Add network latancy and attempts to minimise bandwidth usage and you can introduce serious delays - I find 6 music can be 30 seconds behind streaming relative to DAB and were it Radio 2 you would discover there is a delay added to FM nowadays to ensure FM and DAB are in sync.
I am enjoying the fact BBC are syncing up the R5 commentary with the tv pictures for streaming. Means I can turn off the utter shit commentators on BBC One and replace them with just slightly shit ones from R5.
Most often done at tennis matches, you attend a sporting event in person and bet just as something happens. You'd have one guy at the match and another at home on his laptop ready to press "submit bet" at the right moment.
Is TV not live then? I thought it was.
No had always been some delay, but with some modern feeds / streams, there is a really significant delay.
There are a number of additional steps required to digitise to images relatively to realtime. One of which is you need the next key frame (so 0.5 seconds later) to calculate the intermediate changes
Add network latancy and attempts to minimise bandwidth usage and you can introduce serious delays - I find 6 music can be 30 seconds behind streaming relative to DAB and were it Radio 2 you would discover there is a delay added to FM nowadays to ensure FM and DAB are in sync.
I am enjoying the fact BBC are syncing up the R5 commentary with the tv pictures for streaming. Means I can turn off the utter shit commentators on BBC One and replace them with just slightly shit ones from R5.
We've been in Turkey until this morning (flight was delayed to 1:30 their time) - we were watching Germany / Hungary last night and I don't know what the commentators were watching but it was a way more exciting match (for all 90 minutes) than the one I watched.
I see Gove is concerned about Labour installing yes men into public offices. Can't think where they'd get the inspiration to do any such thing.
Is it not the failure of the government to act on much of its agenda, the fact that they havent being able to do that? Create new powers for regulatory bodies staffed and run by people who despise everything the conservatives are.
I have had a WhatsApp this morning claiming that conservative head office is planning to call candidates and tell them their seats are lost and resources are being pulled back to try and save ‘safe’ seats. Is anyone else hearing this? I guess given today’s news we should just look for betting patterns. Bets on seemingly unlikely Tory losses may be coming from HQ and may be a sign it is happening.
I guess it depends where your WhatsApp has come from. If, for example, it was coming from Reform HQ expecting it to be disseminated on discussion sites and social media then I expect other reform people are hearing this.
If the WhatsApp you received is from Tory HQ then it’s worth bearing in mind. So probably more enlightening if you old us the source of the WhatsApp no?
Not sure where it comes from will help, but the claim was it is being reported by Michael Crick. So just wondered if others had seen it. I cannot find an independent verification at this stage.
Alex Wickham has the same story;
* EXCLUSIVE: CCHQ yesterday told candidates it is redirecting campaign resources away from many Tory-held seats toward ultra-safe seats *
* This will be seen as a tacit admission the Tories are conceding the election and are now trying to avoid wipeout *
— CCHQ on Wednesday told Tory candidates in several seats *who are defending majorities of over 10,000* that their funds and favorable access to party activists was being withdrawn
— resources are being moved to other seats with larger majorities
I know the line was at least back at Rugby in the west midlands. If the troops pull back to Kenilworth you'll know there's real panic !
Panic on the streets of Rugby, Panic on the streets of Kenilworth. I wonder to myself. Hopes may lie in the Grasmere But honey pie, you're not safe here.....
Most often done at tennis matches, you attend a sporting event in person and bet just as something happens. You'd have one guy at the match and another at home on his laptop ready to press "submit bet" at the right moment.
Is TV not live then? I thought it was.
No had always been some delay, but with some modern feeds / streams, there is a really significant delay.
I really want to watch the BBC games in UHD (or whatever it is), but that means a minute's delay. No good when England are playing, that's for sure.
(And PtP moved to Gloucestershire ... well I never! Always had him down as Metropolitan Elite personified. Very interesting observations from him, as always.)
He has long maintained a country estate even while residing in the smoke...
That is closer to the truth than you might think, Scott, but I assure you I am mostly in the sticks these days.
I believe Cheltenham Racecourse sits in the Tewkesbury Constituency which might explain Lawrence Robertson's involvement in horse racing and related matters. There are also, I believe, a number of racing yards in his constituency though whether any are now in the new North Cotswolds I'm not sure.
As for PtP, with his known affinity for jump racing, I imagine being able to easily reach the likes of Cheltenham, Hereford, Worcester and even perhaps Ludlow and Wincanton wouldn't be the biggest drawback.
I'm going to go out on a limb and suggest most English racecourses are currently in Conservative held constituencies. That may not be the case in 15 days time. Of the big tracks, we have Aintree, Ascot, Cheltenham, Epsom, Goodwood, Haydock, Newmarket, Sandown and York (there are others). Not sure about Aintree and Haydock but the others are, I'm pretty certain, in Conservative held seats.
Cheltenham racecourse is certainly within the constituency, but I honestly can't think of a major training establishment that does. Jackdaw's Castle at Ford is just over the boundary in North Cotswolds, whilst Nigel Twiston Davies and Ben Pauling are near neighbours at Guiting Power and Naunton respectively, both within the new NC boundaries.
You cannot imagine, Stodge, how delighted Mrs PtP was when she discovered just how conveniently close our little cottage was to so many excellent National Hunt courses.
Most often done at tennis matches, you attend a sporting event in person and bet just as something happens. You'd have one guy at the match and another at home on his laptop ready to press "submit bet" at the right moment.
Is TV not live then? I thought it was.
No had always been some delay, but with some modern feeds / streams, there is a really significant delay.
I really want to watch the BBC games in UHD (or whatever it is), but that means a minute's delay. No good when England are playing, that's for sure.
Most often done at tennis matches, you attend a sporting event in person and bet just as something happens. You'd have one guy at the match and another at home on his laptop ready to press "submit bet" at the right moment.
Is TV not live then? I thought it was.
No had always been some delay, but with some modern feeds / streams, there is a really significant delay.
All streaming services are utterly lousy in terms of lag. Spoils the experience from both a betting perspective and indeed a fan perspective. It's the fatal flaw with streaming.
On topic, Tewkesbury is one of the seats which seems clearly to be in the range between the Tories winning 50 seats, and winning 100.
The issue for the Lib Dems is that the local teams are fighting hard in Cheltenham, then South Cotswolds, then North Cotswolds. Then it looks like a tossup between Tewkesbury and Thornbury & Yate. I don't see any signs that the Lib Dems are going kamikaze into the stretch targets and abandoning the others higher up, which means that the likes of Tewkesbury will have to rely on the local strength in the seat, without outside help.
So it looks more to me like the Lib Dems get a good second place this time, and if the Tories don't sort themselves out in opposition, and a couple of the others locally are won, it then becomes a top tier target next time.
North Dorset in much the same position - there are better prospects all around, so a win there would need to rely on the national campaign and a freak vote split.
Cliff notes. Not all inflation is falling. Services still going up at 6%. Even the whole basket hasn't been falling the past 4 months. There is the weird effects of the Ukraine / Russia war still in the numbers, but some abnormal months that showed large reductions in inflation due to big energy price swings will drop out of the numbers shortly to be replaced by projected continued above 2% inflated prices.
I did say this yesterday, it will go back up.
Partly for the reasons you indicated and energy prices, even for the summer, have gone back up.
Higher for longer is the new normal.
Fine for us savers until SKS and Reeves decide to dip their hands into our collective pockets.
I've been chilling and thinking. I was always more drawn historically to the Tories as I was brought up in a very Labour suspicious environment, both my parents and grandparents on mums side were fully engaged with Thatcher and blamed Labour for Britain's decline in the 70s (Dads parents were and some members of the family that side still are very left wing/Trade Unionist Labour). I still very much dislike Labour, but what is the Tory party actually for? They don't care about me, they don't care about defence, they don't care about low tax for workers, just for business owners and corporates. They don't care about getting benefits down in a fair and kind way to those of us unfortunate enough to rely on them. They don't care about immigration concerns, they don't care about decency, they don't care about public service, they don't care about shit in our rivers, they don't care about affordable housing, renters, tenants, they don't care about ANYTHING. They are an infestation. They are the aristocracy of the interwar period, unforgivably self centred, arrogant, power hungry, distant. They are the worst of us. Fuck them. Seriously. Fuck them all. Let them perish and then let's see.
These clowns are so stupid they did not get an unknown 3rd party to put the bets on , explains why the country is circling the drain.
They shouldn't have to, malc. This is yet another example of a thing being punished for no good reason. It is legal to gamble.
In fixed-odds bookmaking, the bookmaker knows that there may be people on the other side of the bet with insider information. When people start piling on implausible candidates (eg "The Next Doctor Who Is Jodie Whittaker" in 2016 or "...Is Peter Capaldi" in 2013) the proper response is for the bookmakers to take it on the chin and suspend the market.
PB prides itself on being for free speech (unless it's speech it doesn't like) and against cancellation (except for the people it wants cancelled). We should be loudly decrying this violation of the gambler's rights and interfering with their gambling, not nodding and winking at it.
I never thought I'd be acting for Conservative Party personnel, but it's a topsy-turvy world these days.
It is of course legal to gamble. But is it legal to place a bet on an outcome you already know, by virtue of your position, to be certain ? Or are you at that point defrauding the bookmaker ?
A Reform UK candidate reportedly shared a post on social media branding the Royal family “benefit scroungers” and calling for the monarchy to be abolished.
They are an infestation. They are the aristocracy of the interwar period, unforgivably self centred, arrogant, power hungry, distant. They are the worst of us.
I do not read The Daily Mail, or as some wags call it the "Daily Heil", most comical.
However I do read "This is Money"
The first article I clicked on, about some guy being chased for some money for double glazing, has an ad either side of Rachel Reeves pledging to restore stability after Tory economic chaos. A click on this takes you to
I've been chilling and thinking. I was always more drawn historically to the Tories as I was brought up in a very Labour suspicious environment, both my parents and grandparents on mums side were fully engaged with Thatcher and blamed Labour for Britain's decline in the 70s (Dads parents were and some members of the family that side still are very left wing/Trade Unionist Labour). I still very much dislike Labour, but what is the Tory party actually for? They don't care about me, they don't care about defence, they don't care about low tax for workers, just for business owners and corporates. They don't care about getting benefits down in a fair and kind way to those of us unfortunate enough to rely on them. They don't care about immigration concerns, they don't care about decency, they don't care about public service, they don't care about shit in our rivers, they don't care about affordable housing, renters, tenants, they don't care about ANYTHING. They are an infestation. They are the aristocracy of the interwar period, unforgivably self centred, arrogant, power hungry, distant. They are the worst of us. Fuck them. Seriously. Fuck them all. Let them perish and then let's see.
That's the place I have reached. It is time for them to go. They are the ancien regime. We need a Terror
It's why I won't get Sky Stream because the delay between the live footage and me actually seeing it is nearly 2 mins.
I remember watching the 2018 World Cup final in a flat in Paris - we knew when the good bits were coming because we had 1 minutes notice..
Utterly ruins the experience. We're removing streaming at our rugby club and replacing it with cable for this exact reason. I'm surprised it has taken so long for people to catch on how laggy it is.
On topic, Tewkesbury is one of the seats which seems clearly to be in the range between the Tories winning 50 seats, and winning 100.
The issue for the Lib Dems is that the local teams are fighting hard in Cheltenham, then South Cotswolds, then North Cotswolds. Then it looks like a tossup between Tewkesbury and Thornbury & Yate. I don't see any signs that the Lib Dems are going kamikaze into the stretch targets and abandoning the others higher up, which means that the likes of Tewkesbury will have to rely on the local strength in the seat, without outside help.
So it looks more to me like the Lib Dems get a good second place this time, and if the Tories don't sort themselves out in opposition, and a couple of the others locally are won, it then becomes a top tier target next time.
North Dorset in much the same position - there are better prospects all around, so a win there would need to rely on the national campaign and a freak vote split.
Yes, that's a sensible and sober appraisal, Tpfkar.
Mind you, the local LDs don't seem short of willing hands, so if Tories do dip below 100 it is definitely game on here, but the more likely scenario is a very strong second to build on next time.
I got on at 7s originally so I could trade out at a profit, but I'm reluctant to do so just yet.
They are an infestation. They are the aristocracy of the interwar period, unforgivably self centred, arrogant, power hungry, distant. They are the worst of us.
That's one vote for the Tories in Sheffield Hallam.
My vote is 100% influenced by wanting to keep His Excellency The Right Honourable The Lord Cameron of Chipping Norton as Foreign Secretary.
Oh aye, like that’s gonna happen.
Didn’t you previously say you were minded not to vote Tory? Are you Big G-like in your flip floppery?!
I’m only joshing, I don’t blame you, or him, for returning to the fold. You both seem to have longstanding, heartfelt, tribal feelings for the party. It’s not something I understand personally, but it must be difficult to see an organisation you have such an affinity, a connection, with in such deep, deep shit.
I’ll never forgive the Tories for what they’ve done to this country for the last 14 years, for the damage austerity has brought to my part of the Red Wall, the closed libraries and sports centres, the crumbling public realm, the hard-pressed public services, the slow, wilful destruction of the NHS. And I’ll never forgive them for stripping me of my European citizenship and Freedom of Movement, for their weakness in standing up to their nutters.
I want them to get a good fucking hammering. I want their handling of the last 14 years to be clearly, unequivocally, decisively rejected by the public. I want them to be chastened, to have their time in the wilderness, to renew. But I don’t want them destroyed. Because as bad as they are - and I hate the party with a passion even though I have plenty of Tory friends -Farage is worse.
The number of people I know who are voting Tory is quite extraordinary. I think it's one of those habits that are hard to break. If it wasn't for PB and my belief in polls I would be putting my house on at least a hung parliament
Roger, you're a wealthy retired tampon ad executive, educated at a minor public school, who mainly lives in Villefranche-sur-Mer
Your social circle is probably quite unusual, and may indeed be limited to 24/7 private nurses
I have a wide circle of friends and family, home and abroad, rich and poor, who are a real mix, arty and geeky, you name it. In the past they've been everything from SWP to BNP, but mainly Labour and Tory, with a couple of Libs, Nits and UKIPs
Not a single one is definitely voting Tory. One was edging that way but the Reform Manifesto has tempted her to Farage
I can therefore believe these stories of total wipe-out (sorry @Sandpit). Unless there is a shy Tory effect at work, but I don't believe it, people aren't embarrassed about voting Tory or not voting Tory, they just despise them, quietly or loudly. A shy Reform vote is more likely, because Farage
What about a deal. You stop calling me 'a tampon ad exec' and I'll stop referring to you (accurately) as the winner of the Henry Miller award for the worst sex book ever written.
The winning passage, I assume, was a rather crass and cringe depiction of a breathless and sweaty menage a un.
Boris Johnson has announced the release date for his “unrestrained” memoir in which he will give his account of his time in Downing Street. The former prime minister’s book, called Unleashed, will be published by William Collins on Oct 10 this year, with Harper releasing it in the United States five days later.
He is never writing that Shakespeare book is he....
Rough pro guess, he was offered £100,000 for the Shakespeare book, max; he will make £5-10 million from his memoir, worldwide, so no, I imagine the Shakespeare book is very much on the backburner
A Reform UK candidate reportedly shared a post on social media branding the Royal family “benefit scroungers” and calling for the monarchy to be abolished.
Boris Johnson has announced the release date for his “unrestrained” memoir in which he will give his account of his time in Downing Street. The former prime minister’s book, called Unleashed, will be published by William Collins on Oct 10 this year, ....
Boris Johnson has announced the release date for his “unrestrained” memoir in which he will give his account of his time in Downing Street. The former prime minister’s book, called Unleashed, will be published by William Collins on Oct 10 this year, with Harper releasing it in the United States five days later.
He is never writing that Shakespeare book is he....
He could combine the two and title his account of his time in Downing Street A Comedy of Errors.
My only explanation for the what has been going on in the Tory Party for the last 4 weeks is that they are workshopping a project with Mischief Theatre called “The Election that Goes Wrong”
I've been chilling and thinking. I was always more drawn historically to the Tories as I was brought up in a very Labour suspicious environment, both my parents and grandparents on mums side were fully engaged with Thatcher and blamed Labour for Britain's decline in the 70s (Dads parents were and some members of the family that side still are very left wing/Trade Unionist Labour). I still very much dislike Labour, but what is the Tory party actually for? They don't care about me, they don't care about defence, they don't care about low tax for workers, just for business owners and corporates. They don't care about getting benefits down in a fair and kind way to those of us unfortunate enough to rely on them. They don't care about immigration concerns, they don't care about decency, they don't care about public service, they don't care about shit in our rivers, they don't care about affordable housing, renters, tenants, they don't care about ANYTHING. They are an infestation. They are the aristocracy of the interwar period, unforgivably self centred, arrogant, power hungry, distant. They are the worst of us. Fuck them. Seriously. Fuck them all. Let them perish and then let's see.
That's the place I have reached. It is time for them to go. They are the ancien regime. We need a Terror
They have sat too long for any good they may do. In the name of God, go etc A betrayed people become very powerful very quickly.
Boris Johnson has announced the release date for his “unrestrained” memoir in which he will give his account of his time in Downing Street. The former prime minister’s book, called Unleashed, will be published by William Collins on Oct 10 this year, with Harper releasing it in the United States five days later.
He is never writing that Shakespeare book is he....
Rough pro guess, he was offered £100,000 for the Shakespeare book, max; he will make £5-10 million from his memoir, worldwide, so no, I imagine the Shakespeare book is very much on the backburner
With that sort of money sloshing about, he may well have just paid back the advance. I can't imagine the publisher who has been waiting for what 10 years? for this Shakespeare book cares now about the actual book.
This is my photo quota for today, the outfit worn by 22 year old professional cyclist Kate Richardson of the "Lifeplus Wahoo" Tour of Britain team, when she was knocked off her cycle whilst training on June 4th by a man who forced his SUV past her at speed on a blind bend on a single track road near Holmfirth.
The collision fractured her shoulder, which is borderline ABH / GBH - charging standard for "causing serious injury by ... cycling/driving" is equivalent to GBH. GBH starts with 'broken bones'.
The man then drove away, but later returned, stopped his vehicle, got out, verbally abused her, then got back in his vehicle and drove off *. This one may get tracked down and prosecuted, but widespread non (or minimal) enforcement imo contributes to a culture.
A longer comment than usual; I've been reflecting on @Cyclefree 's piece from a few days ago about threats of, or actual, violence against women, and how in some circumstances it is deemed either acceptable or tolerable. Others' language / behaviour can create a culture making threats or violence by perpetrators seem acceptable.
Lunging with a vehicle at a woman (ignoring the accompanying man) riding a cycle when in a couple is not unknown. I've even seen one report where a man started beating up someone he had pushed off their cycle, then stopped and apologised because he thought she was a man.
There's some weird mental gymnastics going on. There are other categories - targeting women riding cycles is one of them.
Here's another one from April 2024 where the 'offence' by the 20 year old female victim was to wave a tailgating Land Rover driver to not be so close. Again the pattern is stops vehicle, gets out, assaults woman. **
Interesting. My only anecdotal evidence of this is that my partner gets more close passes than I do, but then she has the irritating and dangerous habit of always cycling in the door zone. My very rough assessment is that women are more inclined to do this than men, and so there is a gender aspect to collisions from behind.
If you ever visit somewhere like the Farne islands it's useful putting some big eyes on the back of your hat to deter the Terns. I have a theory that the same could work with drivers.
One categorisation, within "deliberate injury / assaults / threatening behaviour" * (which can be non-contact), could be:
1 Male driver stays in vehicle, on male victim 2 Male driver leaves vehicle, on male victim 3 Male driver stays in vehicle, on female victim 4 Male driver leaves vehicle, on female victim 5 Female driver stays in vehicle, on male victim 6 Female driver leaves vehicle, on male victim 7 Female driver stays in vehicle, on female victim 8 Male driver leaves vehicle, on female victim
"Female driver leaves vehicle" and engaging in violent behaviour are the ones I hardly see in news reports, though I'm sure they exist. Males leaving vehicles is fairly common to 'have a go' at males or females. I was interested in the violence on women parallel. I have examples of women using their vehicles to intimate or assault or run down, but not women getting out much to threaten or assault - though there's plenty of verbal **.
I like doing this type of thinking in a broader setting where I may get more points of view back.
* Here I'm ignoring "careless" (ie non-aware) collisions causing injury, which do happen. I am ignoring anything from the person riding the bike. Those are for another time.
I've been chilling and thinking. I was always more drawn historically to the Tories as I was brought up in a very Labour suspicious environment, both my parents and grandparents on mums side were fully engaged with Thatcher and blamed Labour for Britain's decline in the 70s (Dads parents were and some members of the family that side still are very left wing/Trade Unionist Labour). I still very much dislike Labour, but what is the Tory party actually for? They don't care about me, they don't care about defence, they don't care about low tax for workers, just for business owners and corporates. They don't care about getting benefits down in a fair and kind way to those of us unfortunate enough to rely on them. They don't care about immigration concerns, they don't care about decency, they don't care about public service, they don't care about shit in our rivers, they don't care about affordable housing, renters, tenants, they don't care about ANYTHING. They are an infestation. They are the aristocracy of the interwar period, unforgivably self centred, arrogant, power hungry, distant. They are the worst of us. Fuck them. Seriously. Fuck them all. Let them perish and then let's see.
More emotive than I would have put it, but you are right. Time they are put out to pasture to discover what they are actually about.
On topic, Tewkesbury is one of the seats which seems clearly to be in the range between the Tories winning 50 seats, and winning 100.
The issue for the Lib Dems is that the local teams are fighting hard in Cheltenham, then South Cotswolds, then North Cotswolds. Then it looks like a tossup between Tewkesbury and Thornbury & Yate. I don't see any signs that the Lib Dems are going kamikaze into the stretch targets and abandoning the others higher up, which means that the likes of Tewkesbury will have to rely on the local strength in the seat, without outside help.
So it looks more to me like the Lib Dems get a good second place this time, and if the Tories don't sort themselves out in opposition, and a couple of the others locally are won, it then becomes a top tier target next time.
North Dorset in much the same position - there are better prospects all around, so a win there would need to rely on the national campaign and a freak vote split.
I heard the other day that the LibDems have an 80-seat strategy. Now purely on the notional vote numbers, Tewkesbury would be number 62 on their list. I know there will be other drivers too, but it seems entirely possible that it's a seat they'l be directing resources to.
I've been chilling and thinking. I was always more drawn historically to the Tories as I was brought up in a very Labour suspicious environment, both my parents and grandparents on mums side were fully engaged with Thatcher and blamed Labour for Britain's decline in the 70s (Dads parents were and some members of the family that side still are very left wing/Trade Unionist Labour). I still very much dislike Labour, but what is the Tory party actually for? They don't care about me, they don't care about defence, they don't care about low tax for workers, just for business owners and corporates. They don't care about getting benefits down in a fair and kind way to those of us unfortunate enough to rely on them. They don't care about immigration concerns, they don't care about decency, they don't care about public service, they don't care about shit in our rivers, they don't care about affordable housing, renters, tenants, they don't care about ANYTHING. They are an infestation. They are the aristocracy of the interwar period, unforgivably self centred, arrogant, power hungry, distant. They are the worst of us. Fuck them. Seriously. Fuck them all. Let them perish and then let's see.
More emotive than I would have put it, but you are right. Time they are put out to pasture to discover what they are actually about.
I'd go harder. Time they were put out to pasture and we decide what we are about. They are yesterday's mistake, we have no need of them anymore.
So I drove round Harrogate’s ring road this morning (at 5am) returning from the airport.
There were a total of 10 Tory posters in a total of 2 fields up where previously it would have been about 500..
For completeness 1 Lib Dem poster on a house but you don’t drive past many houses on that road.
The Lib Dem candidate, Tom Gordon, was a councillor in my ward, Knottingley, before standing down to aid his standing for parliament. He's the candidate for Harrogate and Knaresborough, think he was selected like 18 months ago or something so he'll have been campaigning since then I would imagine. He lived down the road from me, I signed his nomination paper when he stood for councillor the first time after he randomly knocked on my door seeking signatures. Nice bloke. Massively instrumental in swinging Knottingley from being three Labour cllrs since some time before the last ice age to being three solidly entrenched Lib Dems now - no mean feat round here.
So if he can be as effective in Harrogate I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him win it in the current climate.
A Reform UK candidate reportedly shared a post on social media branding the Royal family “benefit scroungers” and calling for the monarchy to be abolished.
Maybe TSE could vote be swayed to Reform after all.
Abolishing the monarchy, slagging off Mrs Thatcher - Reform increasingly appear to be a party of the hard Left. Yet they're taking votes from the Tories. Quite a paradox.
A Reform UK candidate reportedly shared a post on social media branding the Royal family “benefit scroungers” and calling for the monarchy to be abolished.
I'm saving up £500 plus some literature producing cash over the next 5 years and standing in 2028/2029 unless something new and worthy comes to whom I shall donate those funds and campaign for. It is done!
2nd bit of feedback from Wantage and Didcot ( @Andy_Cooke and @NickPalmer ). Again another member of the campaign I am involved in who are non political but very interested in who gets elected for obvious reasons. The current Tory MP has been a champion for our cause.
"I have had campaign leaflets from Labour and the SDP, plus several leaflets from the Liberal Democrats.
The Liberal Democrats are making quite in effort in Wantage, and seem to regard this as one of their target seats."
Thanks, kjh - always useful to get the feel of whether or not we're cutting through.
There are countless LibDem leaflets, which mostly are generic (not referring to the candidate) - on a given day, residents may receive 2 different ones: they are slightly overdoing it IMO. There are fairly widespread Labour leaflets and some SDP leaflets, but none so far from the Tories, who seem to have given up. LibDem posters were up first and are moderately common, though less so than in previous seats where I've been aqctive. Labour posters are catching up. I've yet to see a single Tory poster. Constituency polling varies between a smalle Labour lead to a large LibDem lead; I've yet to see a Tory lead predicted by any of them. Labour is working hard and in with a reasonable shot - but there are masses of tactical anti-Tory voters still making up their minds.
Cheers Nick. Any generic LD leaflets would be national party ones of which we have only received one so far here in Guildford. The local party would be mad to put out a generic leaflet, the national party obviously has to because of the expenses rules.
Both the feedbacks I received were unsolicited. One sent an email out to our committee yesterday, the other replied to it today with his observations. They obviously talked about it also before the election because who the MP is important to our campaign. None (except me of course) gives two hoots which party it is, they just want to know they will get a representative who fights for their campaign. You might want to tip off your candidate, in case he wins, because he is going to have a lot of constituents knocking on his door afterwards
If the LD wins he is also going to get the same constituents knocking on his door (fyi @Andy_Cooke )
Boris Johnson has announced the release date for his “unrestrained” memoir in which he will give his account of his time in Downing Street. The former prime minister’s book, called Unleashed, will be published by William Collins on Oct 10 this year, with Harper releasing it in the United States five days later.
He is never writing that Shakespeare book is he....
Rough pro guess, he was offered £100,000 for the Shakespeare book, max; he will make £5-10 million from his memoir, worldwide, so no, I imagine the Shakespeare book is very much on the backburner
With that sort of money sloshing about, he may well have just paid back the advance. I can't imagine the publisher who has been waiting for what 10 years? for this Shakespeare book cares now about the actual book.
I can't imagine anyone who cares about Shakespeare does, either.
On topic, Tewkesbury is one of the seats which seems clearly to be in the range between the Tories winning 50 seats, and winning 100.
The issue for the Lib Dems is that the local teams are fighting hard in Cheltenham, then South Cotswolds, then North Cotswolds. Then it looks like a tossup between Tewkesbury and Thornbury & Yate. I don't see any signs that the Lib Dems are going kamikaze into the stretch targets and abandoning the others higher up, which means that the likes of Tewkesbury will have to rely on the local strength in the seat, without outside help.
So it looks more to me like the Lib Dems get a good second place this time, and if the Tories don't sort themselves out in opposition, and a couple of the others locally are won, it then becomes a top tier target next time.
North Dorset in much the same position - there are better prospects all around, so a win there would need to rely on the national campaign and a freak vote split.
Yes, that's a sensible and sober appraisal, Tpfkar.
Mind you, the local LDs don't seem short of willing hands, so if Tories do dip below 100 it is definitely game on here, but the more likely scenario is a very strong second to build on next time.
I got on at 7s originally so I could trade out at a profit, but I'm reluctant to do so just yet.
It’s one of the (few) electoral advantages the Lib Dems have come election time. The ratio of active campaigners and leafletters to total membership must be the highest of any national party.
Our membership in Lewisham is, unsurprisingly, tiny. And old. But that tiny membership don’t half punch above their weight. They are all off campaigning in target seats like Carshalton and Wallington and further afield.
Greens were first out of the traps in Huddersfield with a hand delivered leaflet within days of announcement, of the only we can challenge Labour here variety. Labour followed with a mailshot new candidate introduction / 5 pledges leaflet. Both slick.
Lamppost posters, per local by-law, are a bit slow to get going, but a few candidate Labour posters going up on the road through Edgerton, mirrored by generic Vote Green ones, and I've seen 2 randomly scattered lamppost posters for the Reform candidate.
The lamppost campaign is in fuller swing in Colne Valley, McCartney, the defending Tory, went early, Labour have just got going in the last 10 days, with generic UK flag posters and candidate posters above and below the McCartney ones. There were a couple of Labour candidate bills in Netherton too, which I think is across the constituency border. It seems the Labour campaign hasn't got to Lindley ward yet, and the McCartney posters still stand alone. The odd generic Green poster and lots of billing for Honley Agricultural Show, whose scheme gives the impression of there being lots more Green posters. I get the feeling some lamppost banners, for both candidates, have been taken down by someone. Naughty, naughty.
Not been to Dewsbury or Spen Valley yet, should be interesting when I pass that way.
Went into Calderdale yesterday, which without the by-law is much quieter, a couple of large farmers field banners for the Calder Valley Tory up high next to Elland by-pass.
Scoop: The US is set to halt all open orders for Patriot air defence systems & interceptor missiles until Ukraine has enough to defend itself from Russia’s air attacks. 3 people with knowledge of the decision said the move would be announced today. https://ft.com/content/89fe9d6b-3a0f-42a5-af50-cff7f457a126
These clowns are so stupid they did not get an unknown 3rd party to put the bets on , explains why the country is circling the drain.
They shouldn't have to, malc. This is yet another example of a thing being punished for no good reason. It is legal to gamble.
In fixed-odds bookmaking, the bookmaker knows that there may be people on the other side of the bet with insider information. When people start piling on implausible candidates (eg "The Next Doctor Who Is Jodie Whittaker" in 2016 or "...Is Peter Capaldi" in 2013) the proper response is for the bookmakers to take it on the chin and suspend the market.
PB prides itself on being for free speech (unless it's speech it doesn't like) and against cancellation (except for the people it wants cancelled). We should be loudly decrying this violation of the gambler's rights and interfering with their gambling, not nodding and winking at it.
I never thought I'd be acting for Conservative Party personnel, but it's a topsy-turvy world these days.
It is of course legal to gamble. But is it legal to place a bet on an outcome you already know, by virtue of your position, to be certain ? Or are you at that point defrauding the bookmaker ?
Aren't all bets about information asymmetry? If you have more and better information than me, you win. If I have more and better information than you, I win.
Many years ago, I was involved in a campaign which was the defence of a theoretically marginal seat, where bookies were offering odds a little worse than evens on a Lib Dem hold. But I'd been on the doorstep and spoken to plenty of others who had, and we were cruising home to a huge win. I made a lot of money on it.
I don't quite see at what point you think it becomes cheating. If a bookie is worried people know more about it than them, don't open the book. Or do open the book based on a calculation that, while some people have more information than you, most don't and you can always say "£100 max bet".
It clearly wasn't wise for people to place bets, but I'm struggling with this one to say it was any more than unwise.
I've been chilling and thinking. I was always more drawn historically to the Tories as I was brought up in a very Labour suspicious environment, both my parents and grandparents on mums side were fully engaged with Thatcher and blamed Labour for Britain's decline in the 70s (Dads parents were and some members of the family that side still are very left wing/Trade Unionist Labour). I still very much dislike Labour, but what is the Tory party actually for? They don't care about me, they don't care about defence, they don't care about low tax for workers, just for business owners and corporates. They don't care about getting benefits down in a fair and kind way to those of us unfortunate enough to rely on them. They don't care about immigration concerns, they don't care about decency, they don't care about public service, they don't care about shit in our rivers, they don't care about affordable housing, renters, tenants, they don't care about ANYTHING. They are an infestation. They are the aristocracy of the interwar period, unforgivably self centred, arrogant, power hungry, distant. They are the worst of us. Fuck them. Seriously. Fuck them all. Let them perish and then let's see.
More emotive than I would have put it, but you are right. Time they are put out to pasture to discover what they are actually about.
I'd go harder. Time they were put out to pasture and we decide what we are about. They are yesterday's mistake, we have no need of them anymore.
We don't, but Taz is right - punishment isn't the point. Getting competent government is, and that's a lot more difficult.
This is my photo quota for today, the outfit worn by 22 year old professional cyclist Kate Richardson of the "Lifeplus Wahoo" Tour of Britain team, when she was knocked off her cycle whilst training on June 4th by a man who forced his SUV past her at speed on a blind bend on a single track road near Holmfirth.
The collision fractured her shoulder, which is borderline ABH / GBH - charging standard for "causing serious injury by ... cycling/driving" is equivalent to GBH. GBH starts with 'broken bones'.
The man then drove away, but later returned, stopped his vehicle, got out, verbally abused her, then got back in his vehicle and drove off *. This one may get tracked down and prosecuted, but widespread non (or minimal) enforcement imo contributes to a culture.
A longer comment than usual; I've been reflecting on @Cyclefree 's piece from a few days ago about threats of, or actual, violence against women, and how in some circumstances it is deemed either acceptable or tolerable. Others' language / behaviour can create a culture making threats or violence by perpetrators seem acceptable.
Lunging with a vehicle at a woman (ignoring the accompanying man) riding a cycle when in a couple is not unknown. I've even seen one report where a man started beating up someone he had pushed off their cycle, then stopped and apologised because he thought she was a man.
There's some weird mental gymnastics going on. There are other categories - targeting women riding cycles is one of them.
Here's another one from April 2024 where the 'offence' by the 20 year old female victim was to wave a tailgating Land Rover driver to not be so close. Again the pattern is stops vehicle, gets out, assaults woman. **
Interesting. My only anecdotal evidence of this is that my partner gets more close passes than I do, but then she has the irritating and dangerous habit of always cycling in the door zone. My very rough assessment is that women are more inclined to do this than men, and so there is a gender aspect to collisions from behind.
If you ever visit somewhere like the Farne islands it's useful putting some big eyes on the back of your hat to deter the Terns. I have a theory that the same could work with drivers.
One categorisation, within "deliberate injury / assaults / threatening behaviour" * (which can be non-contact), could be:
1 Male driver stays in vehicle, on male victim 2 Male driver leaves vehicle, on male victim 3 Male driver stays in vehicle, on female victim 4 Male driver leaves vehicle, on female victim 5 Female driver stays in vehicle, on male victim 6 Female driver leaves vehicle, on male victim 7 Female driver stays in vehicle, on female victim 8 Male driver leaves vehicle, on female victim
"Female driver leaves vehicle" and engaging in violent behaviour are the ones I hardly see in news reports, though I'm sure they exist. Males leaving vehicles is fairly common to 'have a go' at males or females. I was interested in the violence on women parallel. I have examples of women using their vehicles to intimate or assault or run down, but not women getting out much to threaten or assault - though there's plenty of verbal **.
I like doing this type of thinking in a broader setting where I may get more points of view back.
* Here I'm ignoring "careless" (ie non-aware) collisions causing injury, which do happen. I am ignoring anything from the person riding the bike. Those are for another time.
Luckily not been injured in an RTA cycling but I've been threatened with violence on several occasions by men and women but only men get out of the vehicle.
A Reform UK candidate reportedly shared a post on social media branding the Royal family “benefit scroungers” and calling for the monarchy to be abolished.
Maybe TSE could vote be swayed to Reform after all.
Abolishing the monarchy, slagging off Mrs Thatcher - Reform increasingly appear to be a party of the hard Left. Yet they're taking votes from the Tories. Quite a paradox.
That isn't that uncommon for parties on the extreme. Nick Griffin was a "nationalise" everything.
A Reform UK candidate reportedly shared a post on social media branding the Royal family “benefit scroungers” and calling for the monarchy to be abolished.
Maybe TSE could vote be swayed to Reform after all.
Abolishing the monarchy, slagging off Mrs Thatcher - Reform increasingly appear to be a party of the hard Left. Yet they're taking votes from the Tories. Quite a paradox.
I never saw Reform as being aligned with the "Not My King" movement before !!!!!
Boris Johnson has announced the release date for his “unrestrained” memoir in which he will give his account of his time in Downing Street. The former prime minister’s book, called Unleashed, will be published by William Collins on Oct 10 this year, with Harper releasing it in the United States five days later.
He is never writing that Shakespeare book is he....
Rough pro guess, he was offered £100,000 for the Shakespeare book, max; he will make £5-10 million from his memoir, worldwide, so no, I imagine the Shakespeare book is very much on the backburner
With that sort of money sloshing about, he may well have just paid back the advance. I can't imagine the publisher who has been waiting for what 10 years? for this Shakespeare book cares now about the actual book.
I can't imagine anyone who cares about Shakespeare does, either.
"Some try and do Shakespeare down. Some say it is out of date and over dramatic. Some even have the audacity to claim he didn't write all his own plays! I say utter rot. Balderdash. Piffle. The damned cheek of it. Philistines all of them. He's the most glorious of all our writers!! A tower genius reaching out across the centuries. A magnificent english hero. A..."
Scoop: The US is set to halt all open orders for Patriot air defence systems & interceptor missiles until Ukraine has enough to defend itself from Russia’s air attacks. 3 people with knowledge of the decision said the move would be announced today. https://ft.com/content/89fe9d6b-3a0f-42a5-af50-cff7f457a126
good news
Except that it suggests they have capacity issues.
A Reform UK candidate reportedly shared a post on social media branding the Royal family “benefit scroungers” and calling for the monarchy to be abolished.
Maybe TSE could vote be swayed to Reform after all.
Abolishing the monarchy, slagging off Mrs Thatcher - Reform increasingly appear to be a party of the hard Left. Yet they're taking votes from the Tories. Quite a paradox.
They are MAGA isolationists laced with Trussism. Their domestic policy is like a caricature of Thatcherism with added deficit spending. Two Trusses worth.
Where they share common cause with the far left is the reflexive hatred of multilateral institutions and globalisation.
I've been chilling and thinking. I was always more drawn historically to the Tories as I was brought up in a very Labour suspicious environment, both my parents and grandparents on mums side were fully engaged with Thatcher and blamed Labour for Britain's decline in the 70s (Dads parents were and some members of the family that side still are very left wing/Trade Unionist Labour). I still very much dislike Labour, but what is the Tory party actually for? They don't care about me, they don't care about defence, they don't care about low tax for workers, just for business owners and corporates. They don't care about getting benefits down in a fair and kind way to those of us unfortunate enough to rely on them. They don't care about immigration concerns, they don't care about decency, they don't care about public service, they don't care about shit in our rivers, they don't care about affordable housing, renters, tenants, they don't care about ANYTHING. They are an infestation. They are the aristocracy of the interwar period, unforgivably self centred, arrogant, power hungry, distant. They are the worst of us. Fuck them. Seriously. Fuck them all. Let them perish and then let's see.
More emotive than I would have put it, but you are right. Time they are put out to pasture to discover what they are actually about.
I'd go harder. Time they were put out to pasture and we decide what we are about. They are yesterday's mistake, we have no need of them anymore.
Yes, that is a fair emphasis. Perhaps their time has past and, in spite of what people like Leon may think/hope, we are becoming a more left of centre "woke" nation ?
Comments
IMF boss: ‘I had to buy a new house for all my jackets’
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/06/20/kristalina-georgieva-interview-imf-boss-care-more-deeply/
It's why I won't get Sky Stream because the delay between the live footage and me actually seeing it is nearly 2 mins.
There were a total of 10 Tory posters in a total of 2 fields up where previously it would have been about 500..
For completeness 1 Lib Dem poster on a house but you don’t drive past many houses on that road.
'They are completely dysfunctional, completely broken'
In fixed-odds bookmaking, the bookmaker knows that there may be people on the other side of the bet with insider information. When people start piling on implausible candidates (eg "The Next Doctor Who Is Jodie Whittaker" in 2016 or "...Is Peter Capaldi" in 2013) the proper response is for the bookmakers to take it on the chin and suspend the market.
PB prides itself on being for free speech (unless it's speech it doesn't like) and against cancellation (except for the people it wants cancelled). We should be loudly decrying this violation of the gambler's rights and interfering with their gambling, not nodding and winking at it.
I never thought I'd be acting for Conservative Party personnel, but it's a topsy-turvy world these days.
Inflation Will Go Up Again
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4vcVvc-p_Jg
Cliff notes. Not all inflation is falling. Services still going up at 6%. Even the whole basket hasn't been falling the past 4 months. There is the weird effects of the Ukraine / Russia war still in the numbers, but some abnormal months that showed large reductions in inflation due to big energy price swings will drop out of the numbers shortly to be replaced by projected continued above 2% inflated prices.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p07hjnl6
One of the episodes deals with courtsiding and I seem to recall the guy wanted to find a doddery old woman umpire who was slow to enter each point into the electronic system. Betting after the point is won is a bit different.
The killer element is that the police officer(s) are being investigated for misconduct in public office, while the politicians are not. I KNOW WHY, but the contrast is just utterly miserable. You now have people feeling sorry for Constables of the Met ffs!
Maybe that's the real reason behind a July election?
He is never writing that Shakespeare book is he....
Was a choice between the Lib Dem who continually posts incorrect gibberish in the comments section of the local rag or Labour - Tories ruled out for many reasons one of which is the dubious history of the law firm of our current MP.
Hopefully next time I will have a choice of candidates
There you go.
*However*, I still think - certainly in the case of candidates and political insiders - it’s valid and fair to expose the conduct and let voters decide what they make of it. (And although some hammered it beyond the point of reasonableness, I’d say the same of Angela Rayner’s housing, where it does seem the system was gamed).
Worth remembering that one of the biggest political scandals of recent decades - MPs’ expenses - consisted of barely any illegal acts. But it was conduct which voters found repellent and judged accordingly.
Add network latancy and attempts to minimise bandwidth usage and you can introduce serious delays - I find 6 music can be 30 seconds behind streaming relative to DAB and were it Radio 2 you would discover there is a delay added to FM nowadays to ensure FM and DAB are in sync.
Javier Blas
@JavierBlas
·
3h
CHART OF THE DAY: The annual
@EnergyInstitute
'Statistical Review of World Energy' is out.
Among other things, it shows that global coal consumption hit an all-time high in 2023, boosted by China and India.
Does anyone remember the #COP26 slogan of "consign coal to history"?
https://x.com/JavierBlas
I wonder to myself.
Hopes may lie in the Grasmere
But honey pie, you're not safe here.....
You cannot imagine, Stodge, how delighted Mrs PtP was when she discovered just how conveniently close our little cottage was to so many excellent National Hunt courses.
The issue for the Lib Dems is that the local teams are fighting hard in Cheltenham, then South Cotswolds, then North Cotswolds. Then it looks like a tossup between Tewkesbury and Thornbury & Yate. I don't see any signs that the Lib Dems are going kamikaze into the stretch targets and abandoning the others higher up, which means that the likes of Tewkesbury will have to rely on the local strength in the seat, without outside help.
So it looks more to me like the Lib Dems get a good second place this time, and if the Tories don't sort themselves out in opposition, and a couple of the others locally are won, it then becomes a top tier target next time.
North Dorset in much the same position - there are better prospects all around, so a win there would need to rely on the national campaign and a freak vote split.
Partly for the reasons you indicated and energy prices, even for the summer, have gone back up.
Higher for longer is the new normal.
Fine for us savers until SKS and Reeves decide to dip their hands into our collective pockets.
They are an infestation. They are the aristocracy of the interwar period, unforgivably self centred, arrogant, power hungry, distant. They are the worst of us.
Fuck them. Seriously. Fuck them all. Let them perish and then let's see.
https://www.irishmirror.ie/sport/horse-racing/inside-story-yellow-sam-betting-25104614
But is it legal to place a bet on an outcome you already know, by virtue of your position, to be certain ?
Or are you at that point defrauding the bookmaker ?
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/06/20/reform-candidate-criticises-benefit-scrounger-royal-family/
Maybe TSE could vote be swayed to Reform after all.
However I do read "This is Money"
The first article I clicked on, about some guy being chased for some money for double glazing, has an ad either side of Rachel Reeves pledging to restore stability after Tory economic chaos. A click on this takes you to
https://labour.org.uk/change/kickstart-economic-growth/
Labour are really going for it.
Mind you, the local LDs don't seem short of willing hands, so if Tories do dip below 100 it is definitely game on here, but the more likely scenario is a very strong second to build on next time.
I got on at 7s originally so I could trade out at a profit, but I'm reluctant to do so just yet.
Plus I've already filled in my postal vote.
I didn't put a cross, I wrote 'I ♥️ David Cameron'.
A betrayed people become very powerful very quickly.
1 Male driver stays in vehicle, on male victim
2 Male driver leaves vehicle, on male victim
3 Male driver stays in vehicle, on female victim
4 Male driver leaves vehicle, on female victim
5 Female driver stays in vehicle, on male victim
6 Female driver leaves vehicle, on male victim
7 Female driver stays in vehicle, on female victim
8 Male driver leaves vehicle, on female victim
"Female driver leaves vehicle" and engaging in violent behaviour are the ones I hardly see in news reports, though I'm sure they exist. Males leaving vehicles is fairly common to 'have a go' at males or females. I was interested in the violence on women parallel. I have examples of women using their vehicles to intimate or assault or run down, but not women getting out much to threaten or assault - though there's plenty of verbal **.
I like doing this type of thinking in a broader setting where I may get more points of view back.
London Cycle Campaign did some research of abuse directed at women in January ("get off the road, you bitch").
Coverage: https://road.cc/content/news/nine-out-ten-women-face-abuse-while-cycling-report-finds-306235
Report: https://lcc.org.uk/campaigns/womens-freedom/
Podcast: https://road.cc/content/news/what-stops-women-cycling-306675
* Here I'm ignoring "careless" (ie non-aware) collisions causing injury, which do happen. I am ignoring anything from the person riding the bike. Those are for another time.
**
So if he can be as effective in Harrogate I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him win it in the current climate.
Somewhere in a small Aberdeenshire village, @RochdalePioneers is wondering if this genie really does have an infinite number of wishes.
Clacton and Ashfield, yes, but where are seats 3,4,5 & 6?
We need to recruit some RefUK posters.
It is done!
Both the feedbacks I received were unsolicited. One sent an email out to our committee yesterday, the other replied to it today with his observations. They obviously talked about it also before the election because who the MP is important to our campaign. None (except me of course) gives two hoots which party it is, they just want to know they will get a representative who fights for their campaign. You might want to tip off your candidate, in case he wins, because he is going to have a lot of constituents knocking on his door afterwards
If the LD wins he is also going to get the same constituents knocking on his door (fyi @Andy_Cooke )
Our membership in Lewisham is, unsurprisingly, tiny. And old. But that tiny membership don’t half punch above their weight. They are all off campaigning in target seats like Carshalton and Wallington and further afield.
Greens were first out of the traps in Huddersfield with a hand delivered leaflet within days of announcement, of the only we can challenge Labour here variety. Labour followed with a mailshot new candidate introduction / 5 pledges leaflet. Both slick.
Lamppost posters, per local by-law, are a bit slow to get going, but a few candidate Labour posters going up on the road through Edgerton, mirrored by generic Vote Green ones, and I've seen 2 randomly scattered lamppost posters for the Reform candidate.
The lamppost campaign is in fuller swing in Colne Valley, McCartney, the defending Tory, went early, Labour have just got going in the last 10 days, with generic UK flag posters and candidate posters above and below the McCartney ones. There were a couple of Labour candidate bills in Netherton too, which I think is across the constituency border. It seems the Labour campaign hasn't got to Lindley ward yet, and the McCartney posters still stand alone. The odd generic Green poster and lots of billing for Honley Agricultural Show, whose scheme gives the
impression of there being lots more Green posters. I get the feeling some lamppost banners, for both candidates, have been taken down by someone. Naughty, naughty.
Not been to Dewsbury or Spen Valley yet, should be interesting when I pass that way.
Went into Calderdale yesterday, which without the by-law is much quieter, a couple of large farmers field banners for the Calder Valley Tory up high next to Elland by-pass.
Many years ago, I was involved in a campaign which was the defence of a theoretically marginal seat, where bookies were offering odds a little worse than evens on a Lib Dem hold. But I'd been on the doorstep and spoken to plenty of others who had, and we were cruising home to a huge win. I made a lot of money on it.
I don't quite see at what point you think it becomes cheating. If a bookie is worried people know more about it than them, don't open the book. Or do open the book based on a calculation that, while some people have more information than you, most don't and you can always say "£100 max bet".
It clearly wasn't wise for people to place bets, but I'm struggling with this one to say it was any more than unwise.
1 Male driver stays in vehicle, on male victim
2 Male driver leaves vehicle, on male victim
3 Male driver stays in vehicle, on female victim
4 Male driver leaves vehicle, on female victim
5 Female driver stays in vehicle, on male victim
6 Female driver leaves vehicle, on male victim
7 Female driver stays in vehicle, on female victim
8 Male driver leaves vehicle, on female victim
"Female driver leaves vehicle" and engaging in violent behaviour are the ones I hardly see in news reports, though I'm sure they exist. Males leaving vehicles is fairly common to 'have a go' at males or females. I was interested in the violence on women parallel. I have examples of women using their vehicles to intimate or assault or run down, but not women getting out much to threaten or assault - though there's plenty of verbal **.
I like doing this type of thinking in a broader setting where I may get more points of view back.
London Cycle Campaign did some research of abuse directed at women in January ("get off the road, you bitch").
Coverage: https://road.cc/content/news/nine-out-ten-women-face-abuse-while-cycling-report-finds-306235
Report: https://lcc.org.uk/campaigns/womens-freedom/
Podcast: https://road.cc/content/news/what-stops-women-cycling-306675
* Here I'm ignoring "careless" (ie non-aware) collisions causing injury, which do happen. I am ignoring anything from the person riding the bike. Those are for another time.
**
Luckily not been injured in an RTA cycling but I've been threatened with violence on several occasions by men and women but only men get out of the vehicle.
(Continue for 200 pages).
Trussism. Their domestic policy is like a caricature of Thatcherism with added deficit spending. Two Trusses worth.
Where they share common cause with the far left is the reflexive hatred of multilateral institutions and globalisation.