Sunak protection officer arrested over alleged election date bets
A police officer working as part of the prime minister's close protection team has been suspended and later arrested over alleged bets about the timing of the general election, the BBC can reveal.
It seems such a dullard thing to do. You can't make life changing money out of this "insider trading" type move, but if caught you likely to lose your job.
A dullard? Out of The Met? It's a step up from a rapist/murderer I suppose, but still a baseline qualification for "your job is step in front of a bullet to protect the guy standing in the rain trying to work a petrol pump".
Serious question: have People Polling ever produced another poll which was, it turns out, a massive outlier?
Because if they have a history of this then that changes things. Yes I know it is Matt Goodwin etc etc but they are members of the BPC and I need a bit more evidence before dismissing this. But maybe such evidence exists?
Going back to the Trusstershambles, PP were doing weekly polls, which tended to be lower for the big two and higher for Reform, even then.
Maybe they are right. The art of polling is to get a good sample and stretch and squash that sample to better match the UK population as a whole.
But Goodwin does have a set of beliefs that will cause him to do different degrees of processing. Not to fiddle the results, but because his bubble (and we all have one) is more Reform-friendly than many others'.
What he's doing counts as legit, which isn't to say he's right.
This is ridiculous. Elections have to be fought, and that means on the ground, as much as in the media. RefUk just got pasted at the locals in May. They have no resources to fight more than a few seats and Sunderland is not one of them.
I mean I know its after Gin o´clock for some people here, but there is fantasy and then there is absurdity.
Sunak protection officer arrested over alleged election date bets
A police officer working as part of the prime minister's close protection team has been suspended and later arrested over alleged bets about the timing of the general election, the BBC can reveal.
It seems such a dullard thing to do. You can't make life changing money out of this "insider trading" type move, but if caught you likely to lose your job.
A dullard? Out of The Met? It's a step up from a rapist/murderer I suppose, but still a baseline qualification for "your job is step in front of a bullet to protect the guy standing in the rain trying to work a petrol pump".
I actually think there is a serious point here. They tried to go all professional with police need a degree, but does anybody think the police are better now than 20 years ago? And then we have much more sophisticated crime making up a larger and larger proportion of the total, while the police seem incapable of dealing with even the more basic stuff. Robbery, shoplifting and car thefts are near enough decriminalised given the level of these that are solved.
It reflects well on the Swiss people, if you ask me it's a big plus.
I've always found the Japanese flag really sunny. And the Nordic flags make me cross.
Have zero clue re: religious affiliation of either the Scottish or Swiss teams. However, note that both countries are notable as major centers of Calvin, under original leadership of Calvin himself plus Zwingli and Knox. Attesting to their shared, particular stubbornness, and also stubborn particularism.
Sunak protection officer arrested over alleged election date bets
A police officer working as part of the prime minister's close protection team has been suspended and later arrested over alleged bets about the timing of the general election, the BBC can reveal.
It seems such a dullard thing to do. You can't make life changing money out of this "insider trading" type move, but if caught you likely to lose your job.
Do we know how much was wagered? Surely the biggest stupidity is telling anyone. If I’d got wind and placed a bet and won, I’d keep schtum.
Reform UK’s candidate in Barnsley South has denied co-founding a crypto firm branded a ‘ponzi scheme’ - despite video showing he described himself as the firm’s UK head.
Got my first from the candidate himself this afternoon. Quite a reasonable, progressive programme, even if Palestine first on the list. Motherwell FC colours maybe not to everyone’s taste.
Not a single poster or party affiliation seen in any window so far, whether that transfers to turn out who knows.
Partick Thistle colours would have been more sensible in your airt.
I've had a couple of private messages in the last 24 hours from right-wing friends, driven by the close to 1,000 crossings yesterday, half-seriously asking if we now need to "sink a few boats" to stop it.
Meanwhile legal immigration is several orders of magnitude greater than the rounding error that is small boats. Even as a proportion of asylum claims small boats is a small minority.
Good evening
It is simply against Maritime law to arbitrarily sink boats and the outcry would be deafening
No one told the Greek Coastguard
Are you trying to justify a rogue coastguard ignoring Mariime law and anyway the coastguard will have the law to deal with
It is a shocking development that anyone could even think of sinking boats with migrants, and who has to deal with the consequences of rescuing those in peril but the crews of the RNLI and border force boats risking their own lives
Shocking to those of us leading comfortable lives in agreeable houses.
Not so much to those who havent seen a decent pay rise in years due to immigrant competition for low/unskilled Labour, whos rent is going up for a poor quality s***hole due to competition from migrants chasing the same housing stock, and pull their rotten teeth out with pliers as they cannot get a dentist. Then see on the news that illegal enterers are collected and put up in hotels with free food.
And there are rather a lot of the latter.
As I have said, unless decent leaders on occasion do indecent things on occasion for the greater good (like Churchill sinking the French fleet in Mers-El-Kebir killing thousands of French Sailors), they are replaced by indecent leaders who will do very indecent things.
The decent leader doing indecent thing in this occasion would be deporting all males of military age entering the country Illegally on such boats to Kigali in short order without appeal.
The indecent leader doing a very indecent thing would use the Navy to sink a boat pour les encouragement les autres.
I never thought I would read on here such a shocking and unacceptable statement
It truely saddens me and maybe if you had witnessed a woman or a child drown in such circumstances as the rescuers have then you would discover your humanity
How is it shocking and unacceptable to say "The indecent leader doing a very indecent thing would use the Navy to sink a boat pour les encouragement les autres. "?
Think you need to read what I wrote more carefully. I am warning that if good people do nothing then bad people get control and do very unpleasant things.
I read what you wrote and it is unacceptable and shocking
And to think last night I confirmed my youngest son has just been appointed as a Llandudno Inshore Lifeboat helm, much to the family's pride and many on here liking my post, and you want him and his colleague to attend the deliberate sinking of a boat with all the trauma for those concerned
Congrats; to him, of course, and to you and Mrs G.
Sunak protection officer arrested over alleged election date bets
A police officer working as part of the prime minister's close protection team has been suspended and later arrested over alleged bets about the timing of the general election, the BBC can reveal.
It seems such a dullard thing to do. You can't make life changing money out of this "insider trading" type move, but if caught you likely to lose your job.
Do we know how much was wagered? Surely the biggest stupidity is telling anyone. If I’d got wind and placed a bet and won, I’d keep schtum.
Did he tell anybody? I thought after numpty MP placed the bet, all the betting companies said they were reviewing every single bet on the date of the election. I imagine they have just swept all names of anybody who is even remotely connected to #10.
C’mon, this is POLITICS. How can you not love this?
Because they are now terrified. lol
THIS IS THE BEST ELECTION EVER
Also, this is the most dramatic UK election poll I can remember in my adult life
Does anything compare? The poll showing YES ahead in Sindyref, but that was a referendum
Even if this is an outlier (and I suspect it it) it is enormously entertaining, as you say
Remember the Cleggasm polls briefly showing the Lib Dems winning.
Admittedly the protagonist was less notorious at the time, but it was a bigger surge.
I’m not convinced the Peoplepolling result is fabricated. It could well be real, even if the methodology isn’t top notch. It was taken in a day after the Reform unicorn manifesto that promised 2 Trusses-worth of unfunded tax cuts and spending increases, funded by tens of billions of “civil service efficiencies”.
That's an unfair characterisation. Reform have pledged to stop BOE interest payments on bank's QE deposits, currently costing £40bn a year, and stop indemnifying the Bond selloff, that's 10s of billions a year. Both are within the Government's gift, and both are huge chunks of real money that the other three parties don't have the stones to even mention.
I've had a couple of private messages in the last 24 hours from right-wing friends, driven by the close to 1,000 crossings yesterday, half-seriously asking if we now need to "sink a few boats" to stop it.
Meanwhile legal immigration is several orders of magnitude greater than the rounding error that is small boats. Even as a proportion of asylum claims small boats is a small minority.
Good evening
It is simply against Maritime law to arbitrarily sink boats and the outcry would be deafening
No one told the Greek Coastguard
Are you trying to justify a rogue coastguard ignoring Mariime law and anyway the coastguard will have the law to deal with
It is a shocking development that anyone could even think of sinking boats with migrants, and who has to deal with the consequences of rescuing those in peril but the crews of the RNLI and border force boats risking their own lives
Shocking to those of us leading comfortable lives in agreeable houses.
Not so much to those who havent seen a decent pay rise in years due to immigrant competition for low/unskilled Labour, whos rent is going up for a poor quality s***hole due to competition from migrants chasing the same housing stock, and pull their rotten teeth out with pliers as they cannot get a dentist. Then see on the news that illegal enterers are collected and put up in hotels with free food.
And there are rather a lot of the latter.
As I have said, unless decent leaders on occasion do indecent things on occasion for the greater good (like Churchill sinking the French fleet in Mers-El-Kebir killing thousands of French Sailors), they are replaced by indecent leaders who will do very indecent things.
The decent leader doing indecent thing in this occasion would be deporting all males of military age entering the country Illegally on such boats to Kigali in short order without appeal.
The indecent leader doing a very indecent thing would use the Navy to sink a boat pour les encouragement les autres.
I never thought I would read on here such a shocking and unacceptable statement
It truely saddens me and maybe if you had witnessed a woman or a child drown in such circumstances as the rescuers have then you would discover your humanity
That this kind of thinking is considered acceptable in some quarters is the consequence of the government demonising migrants for their own political advantage. They richly deserve to be wiped out.
No it's not. It's the consequence of thousands of people from the third world turning up here every week without us apparently being able to do anything at all about it.
And a strong suspicion that although most are claiming asylum, most of the claims are lies (and people have sadly lost all their documents en route). I don’t think this, by the way, but a lot do.
I think all the PBers claiming that this is a fraudulent poll are treading on very thin ice. OGH had a firm rule that you do NOT impugn pollsters without serious evidence, esp if they are members of the BPC (I presume they are?)
Unlike most of the other pollsters People Polling are untested at a general election.
They have also had to revise some of their previous polls because they cocked up their data tables/spreadsheets.
The other issue is People Polling's supplementaries have been openly discussed by other pollsters and polling experts as being so one sided as to be utterly irrelevant.
Then how come they are memnbers of the BPC? Surely they should be expelled?
Serious question. Because a fraudulent poll if exploded at the right time could actually change the direction of the elevtion, eg a poll which showed Reform easily and dramatically overtaking the Tories
Which this does
IF this is shown to be fraudulent then the coppers need to feel collars, this is serious shit
I've had a couple of private messages in the last 24 hours from right-wing friends, driven by the close to 1,000 crossings yesterday, half-seriously asking if we now need to "sink a few boats" to stop it.
Meanwhile legal immigration is several orders of magnitude greater than the rounding error that is small boats. Even as a proportion of asylum claims small boats is a small minority.
Good evening
It is simply against Maritime law to arbitrarily sink boats and the outcry would be deafening
No one told the Greek Coastguard
Are you trying to justify a rogue coastguard ignoring Mariime law and anyway the coastguard will have the law to deal with
It is a shocking development that anyone could even think of sinking boats with migrants, and who has to deal with the consequences of rescuing those in peril but the crews of the RNLI and border force boats risking their own lives
Shocking to those of us leading comfortable lives in agreeable houses.
Not so much to those who havent seen a decent pay rise in years due to immigrant competition for low/unskilled Labour, whos rent is going up for a poor quality s***hole due to competition from migrants chasing the same housing stock, and pull their rotten teeth out with pliers as they cannot get a dentist. Then see on the news that illegal enterers are collected and put up in hotels with free food.
And there are rather a lot of the latter.
As I have said, unless decent leaders on occasion do indecent things on occasion for the greater good (like Churchill sinking the French fleet in Mers-El-Kebir killing thousands of French Sailors), they are replaced by indecent leaders who will do very indecent things.
The decent leader doing indecent thing in this occasion would be deporting all males of military age entering the country Illegally on such boats to Kigali in short order without appeal.
The indecent leader doing a very indecent thing would use the Navy to sink a boat pour les encouragement les autres.
I never thought I would read on here such a shocking and unacceptable statement
It truely saddens me and maybe if you had witnessed a woman or a child drown in such circumstances as the rescuers have then you would discover your humanity
How is it shocking and unacceptable to say "The indecent leader doing a very indecent thing would use the Navy to sink a boat pour les encouragement les autres. "?
Think you need to read what I wrote more carefully. I am warning that if good people do nothing then bad people get control and do very unpleasant things.
I like you am one of the people who live in agreeable houses in some comfort who would find such things shocking.
Drivel.
Your post called for leaders to do "indecent things ... for the greater good".
That was to deport illegal enterers of military age to Kigali. Not to sink their boats.
That would be a waste.
Captain - “March them in”
{group of refugees enter”}
Captain - “Congratulations on joining His Majesties Royal Navy. Since you have refused to give your names, we have created ones for you. You are Sebastian Codpiece. You were steering the boat? You are then rated Able Seamen. AB Staines. Right, Master at Arms, march them out.”
I didn't think Sunaks conscription plan was to conscript them?
One thing the government is a bit remiss on is this.
The popular view is that the people on boats are criminals and uneducated.
The truth is that if you live in the Somali or Syrian equivalent of Jaywick you are not going anywhere. It is predominantly the middle/professional classes that can afford the thousands in "transport fees"
There are actually a lot of people sat bored and depressed in hotels who could be doing very useful roles.
Serious question: have People Polling ever produced another poll which was, it turns out, a massive outlier?
Because if they have a history of this then that changes things. Yes I know it is Matt Goodwin etc etc but they are members of the BPC and I need a bit more evidence before dismissing this. But maybe such evidence exists?
All the time, particularly around the Truss interregnum.
Where they produced outliers to everybody else were on some of their supplementaries because the questions were very leading.
Serious question: have People Polling ever produced another poll which was, it turns out, a massive outlier?
Because if they have a history of this then that changes things. Yes I know it is Matt Goodwin etc etc but they are members of the BPC and I need a bit more evidence before dismissing this. But maybe such evidence exists?
All the time, particularly around the Truss interregnum.
Where they produced outliers to everybody else were on some of their supplementaries because the questions were very leading.
Sunak protection officer arrested over alleged election date bets
A police officer working as part of the prime minister's close protection team has been suspended and later arrested over alleged bets about the timing of the general election, the BBC can reveal.
It seems such a dullard thing to do. You can't make life changing money out of this "insider trading" type move, but if caught you likely to lose your job.
Do we know how much was wagered? Surely the biggest stupidity is telling anyone. If I’d got wind and placed a bet and won, I’d keep schtum.
Did he tell anybody? I thought after numpty MP placed the bet, all the betting companies said they were reviewing every single bet on the date of the election. I imagine they have just swept all names of anybody who is even remotely connected to #10.
How the hell would they know he is connected to No 10? Surely his ID is protected?
This is ridiculous. Elections have to be fought, and that means on the ground, as much as in the media. RefUk just got pasted at the locals in May. They have no resources to fight more than a few seats and Sunderland is not one of them.
I mean I know its after Gin o´clock for some people here, but there is fantasy and then there is absurdity.
They also almost overtook the Conservatives, and if you go back to 2019, the council election results pre-Boris were:
Labour: 32.7% UKIP: 23.9% Conservative: 18.7%
so I think the evidence that Labour would be vulnerable in the right circumstances is actually quite strong.
This seems amazingly naive from private schools. Point of supply of a service is the crucial factor in determining VAT. They're not going to be able to recover it from the parents so they'll have to find it from future pupils in addition to the VAT on those school fees. My guess is the schools doing this heavily will probably fold.
Also the parents. Rather like those folk who think that simply signing over their house to their children but continuoing to live in it is absolutely simple and tickety-boo and won't cause any problems.
Another issue: the schools won't be covered by the Financial Services Compensation Scheme. If they go bust, then the putative parents will have to queue with the other creditors ... yet if the money is placed in some sort of independent escrow, it's not in the school's hands, so presumably won't qualify as point of supply = 2026 or whatever, rather than right now.
Just thinking, if the late plato was still around, she'd probably be a ReFuk candidate.
I'm not sure she would. Plato fell for any old rubbish she'd seen on the American alt-right interwebs so she'd be in roughly the same place as Leon on Trump and Covid and have little to say on Farage, and possibly be in the process of losing her savings in some crypto scam. May she rest in peace.
Serious question: have People Polling ever produced another poll which was, it turns out, a massive outlier?
Because if they have a history of this then that changes things. Yes I know it is Matt Goodwin etc etc but they are members of the BPC and I need a bit more evidence before dismissing this. But maybe such evidence exists?
All the time, particularly around the Truss interregnum.
Where they produced outliers to everybody else were on some of their supplementaries because the questions were very leading.
He's cherry picking the polling answers he likes, no question. But that is not evidence that his outfit regularly produces absurdly outlying polls
Also, even if this is an outlier, it is SUCH an outlier it will still scare the shite out of Lab and Con. eg if he's overstating Reform by 3 and understating Lab and Con by 3 - ie a really major miss - that still gives us
Sunak protection officer arrested over alleged election date bets
A police officer working as part of the prime minister's close protection team has been suspended and later arrested over alleged bets about the timing of the general election, the BBC can reveal.
It seems such a dullard thing to do. You can't make life changing money out of this "insider trading" type move, but if caught you likely to lose your job.
Do we know how much was wagered? Surely the biggest stupidity is telling anyone. If I’d got wind and placed a bet and won, I’d keep schtum.
Did he tell anybody? I thought after numpty MP placed the bet, all the betting companies said they were reviewing every single bet on the date of the election. I imagine they have just swept all names of anybody who is even remotely connected to #10.
How the hell would they know he is connected to No 10? Surely his ID is protected?
I would have thought so, but apparently the gambling commission (informed by a gambling company) rang the MET to inform them one of your officers from its royalty and specialist protection command has been betting on the election date. That is very specific claim.
Just thinking, if the late plato was still around, she'd probably be a ReFuk candidate.
I'm not sure she would. Plato fell for any old rubbish she'd seen on the American alt-right interwebs so she'd be in roughly the same place as Leon on Trump and Covid and have little to say on Farage, and possibly be in the process of losing her savings in some crypto scam. May she rest in peace.
Out of interest, what became of two other regular (I think) femaie contributors, Carlotta Vance and Cyclefree?
Serious question: have People Polling ever produced another poll which was, it turns out, a massive outlier?
Because if they have a history of this then that changes things. Yes I know it is Matt Goodwin etc etc but they are members of the BPC and I need a bit more evidence before dismissing this. But maybe such evidence exists?
All the time, particularly around the Truss interregnum.
Where they produced outliers to everybody else were on some of their supplementaries because the questions were very leading.
He's cherry picking the polling answers he likes, no question. But that is not evidence that his outfit regularly produces absurdly outlying polls
Also, even if this is an outlier, it is SUCH an outlier it will still scare the shite out of Lab and Con. eg if he's overstating Reform by 3 and understating Lab and Con by 3 - ie a really major miss - that still gives us
Lab: 38 Reform: 21 Con: 18
And even that is explosive
My God, we need more polls!
A Spectator writer has tweeted his thoughts on this poll.
I've had a couple of private messages in the last 24 hours from right-wing friends, driven by the close to 1,000 crossings yesterday, half-seriously asking if we now need to "sink a few boats" to stop it.
Meanwhile legal immigration is several orders of magnitude greater than the rounding error that is small boats. Even as a proportion of asylum claims small boats is a small minority.
Good evening
It is simply against Maritime law to arbitrarily sink boats and the outcry would be deafening
No one told the Greek Coastguard
Are you trying to justify a rogue coastguard ignoring Mariime law and anyway the coastguard will have the law to deal with
It is a shocking development that anyone could even think of sinking boats with migrants, and who has to deal with the consequences of rescuing those in peril but the crews of the RNLI and border force boats risking their own lives
Shocking to those of us leading comfortable lives in agreeable houses.
Not so much to those who havent seen a decent pay rise in years due to immigrant competition for low/unskilled Labour, whos rent is going up for a poor quality s***hole due to competition from migrants chasing the same housing stock, and pull their rotten teeth out with pliers as they cannot get a dentist. Then see on the news that illegal enterers are collected and put up in hotels with free food.
And there are rather a lot of the latter.
As I have said, unless decent leaders on occasion do indecent things on occasion for the greater good (like Churchill sinking the French fleet in Mers-El-Kebir killing thousands of French Sailors), they are replaced by indecent leaders who will do very indecent things.
The decent leader doing indecent thing in this occasion would be deporting all males of military age entering the country Illegally on such boats to Kigali in short order without appeal.
The indecent leader doing a very indecent thing would use the Navy to sink a boat pour les encouragement les autres.
I never thought I would read on here such a shocking and unacceptable statement
It truely saddens me and maybe if you had witnessed a woman or a child drown in such circumstances as the rescuers have then you would discover your humanity
That this kind of thinking is considered acceptable in some quarters is the consequence of the government demonising migrants for their own political advantage. They richly deserve to be wiped out.
Farage and Reform certainly but I fear we are witnessing a growing and worrying descent into the sewer of hard right politics
The house in the background on the right, behind the vans, is where the Lib Dem candidate, David Kinnaird, lives
I had a nice chat with him today. He's just finished a ten day cycle ride around the constituency, visiting as many towns and villages, and talking to as many people, as he could
I saw a good friend of mine on Monday, who I've known for over thirty years. In all that time we've never really talked politics. He brought up to me, completely unprompted, that he'd met "Dave the LibDem chap" at his local pub at the weekend, was really impressed by him, and was now considering voting for the first time in about twenty years
"Dave the LibDem chap" seemed quite pleased to hear this feedback, and to hear that I've been talking him up whenever the opportunity arises (which it has, and I have been)
I also saw his wife and daughter out leafletting later on my route. Loyal Lib Dems that that they are, they weren't even leafletting for Dave, but for their Town Council candidate (the election is the same day as the GE)
Team Dave could do this.. I still don't think it's likely, but it's got to be more likely than the 100/1 shot I think it is with the bookies
East Wiltshire was one of just 19 seats the Tories would have held according to a poll that came out yesterday or the day before, (with Electoral Calculus).
Incidentally I think somebody up thread or in the previous thread suggested that the reason the police officer was charged with misconduct in public office but the MP was not was that an MP wasn't technically in a "public office". It turns out that the CPS say in https://www.cps.gov.uk/legal-guidance/misconduct-public-office that it has been held that MPs and other elected officials do count as being in public office, so the discrepancy in handling the situation isn't for that reason.
The discrepancy is probably just that one was dealt with first by the police and the other by the Gambling Commission.
Just thinking, if the late plato was still around, she'd probably be a ReFuk candidate.
I'm not sure she would. Plato fell for any old rubbish she'd seen on the American alt-right interwebs so she'd be in roughly the same place as Leon on Trump and Covid and have little to say on Farage, and possibly be in the process of losing her savings in some crypto scam. May she rest in peace.
Out of interest, what became of two other regular (I think) femaie contributors, Carlotta Vance and Cyclefree?
An impressive historical knowledge for your fifth day. Next we'll be hearing about the ins and outs of Angus Reid polling.
The other questions on the survey do give a certain flavour to Goodwin's polling.
To what extent, if at all, would you support the following policies. ‘Cut the amount of foreign aid the UK gives to other countries by 50%, which is around £6 billion, so that the UK can spend this money instead on its public services’
To what extent, if at all, would you support the following policies. ‘Having a patriotic curriculum in primary and secondary schools, whereby if children are taught about British or European slavery they must also be taught about non-British and non-European countries that have also engaged in slavery to ensure balance’.
To what extent, if at all, would support the following policies. ‘An immediate freeze on all immigration that is not essential for key areas like the National Health Service into Britain’
Some people are forecasting that the Labour Party might win a ‘super-majority’ at the forthcoming 2024 general election, winning a majority of nearly 300 seats or more. Which of the following comes closest to your view. (Good/Bad/Neither/DK)
If the voting intention question was first to be asked and without sight of the supplementaries then it's still okay.
Crosstabs look sensible - Leave voters Ref 43%, Con 27%, Lab 20%. Remain voters Lab 45%, Lib Dem 20%, Green 12%. Con GE19 voters Ref 41%, Con 40%, Lab 12%, Lab GE19 voters Lab 70%, Green 16%, Lib Dem 9%.
Sunak protection officer arrested over alleged election date bets
A police officer working as part of the prime minister's close protection team has been suspended and later arrested over alleged bets about the timing of the general election, the BBC can reveal.
It seems such a dullard thing to do. You can't make life changing money out of this "insider trading" type move, but if caught you likely to lose your job.
A dullard? Out of The Met? It's a step up from a rapist/murderer I suppose, but still a baseline qualification for "your job is step in front of a bullet to protect the guy standing in the rain trying to work a petrol pump".
I actually think there is a serious point here. They tried to go all professional with police need a degree, but does anybody think the police are better now than 20 years ago? And then we have much more sophisticated crime making up a larger and larger proportion of the total, while the police seem incapable of dealing with even the more basic stuff. Robbery, shoplifting and car thefts are near enough decriminalised given the level of these that are solved.
I rewatched 'Law & Order' (the UK drama - not the recent-ish series) a while back. Well worth a shot if you haven't seen it. It didn't exactly paint the police of yester-year in a very flattering light :
Serious question: have People Polling ever produced another poll which was, it turns out, a massive outlier?
Because if they have a history of this then that changes things. Yes I know it is Matt Goodwin etc etc but they are members of the BPC and I need a bit more evidence before dismissing this. But maybe such evidence exists?
All the time, particularly around the Truss interregnum.
Where they produced outliers to everybody else were on some of their supplementaries because the questions were very leading.
He's cherry picking the polling answers he likes, no question. But that is not evidence that his outfit regularly produces absurdly outlying polls
Also, even if this is an outlier, it is SUCH an outlier it will still scare the shite out of Lab and Con. eg if he's overstating Reform by 3 and understating Lab and Con by 3 - ie a really major miss - that still gives us
Lab: 38 Reform: 21 Con: 18
And even that is explosive
My God, we need more polls!
A Spectator writer has tweeted his thoughts on this poll.
Not had a single one. Have you had any literature @Dumbosaurus ?
Nope.
Not seen any more election signs than the couple I've noted previously either. Will go for a walk later and see if I do. Perhaps past Laura Pidcock's old house!
Serious question: have People Polling ever produced another poll which was, it turns out, a massive outlier?
Because if they have a history of this then that changes things. Yes I know it is Matt Goodwin etc etc but they are members of the BPC and I need a bit more evidence before dismissing this. But maybe such evidence exists?
All the time, particularly around the Truss interregnum.
Where they produced outliers to everybody else were on some of their supplementaries because the questions were very leading.
He's cherry picking the polling answers he likes, no question. But that is not evidence that his outfit regularly produces absurdly outlying polls
Also, even if this is an outlier, it is SUCH an outlier it will still scare the shite out of Lab and Con. eg if he's overstating Reform by 3 and understating Lab and Con by 3 - ie a really major miss - that still gives us
Lab: 38 Reform: 21 Con: 18
And even that is explosive
My God, we need more polls!
Well, 2 out of three released today do not show any Reform surge... Perhaps Goodwin has surged too soon, though?
Sunak protection officer arrested over alleged election date bets
A police officer working as part of the prime minister's close protection team has been suspended and later arrested over alleged bets about the timing of the general election, the BBC can reveal.
It seems such a dullard thing to do. You can't make life changing money out of this "insider trading" type move, but if caught you likely to lose your job.
A dullard? Out of The Met? It's a step up from a rapist/murderer I suppose, but still a baseline qualification for "your job is step in front of a bullet to protect the guy standing in the rain trying to work a petrol pump".
I actually think there is a serious point here. They tried to go all professional with police need a degree, but does anybody think the police are better now than 20 years ago? And then we have much more sophisticated crime making up a larger and larger proportion of the total, while the police seem incapable of dealing with even the more basic stuff. Robbery, shoplifting and car thefts are near enough decriminalised given the level of these that are solved.
I rewatched 'Law & Order' (the UK drama - not the recent-ish series) a while back. Well worth a shot if you haven't seen it. It didn't exactly paint the police of yester-year in a very flattering light :
The other questions on the survey do give a certain flavour to Goodwin's polling.
To what extent, if at all, would you support the following policies. ‘Cut the amount of foreign aid the UK gives to other countries by 50%, which is around £6 billion, so that the UK can spend this money instead on its public services’
To what extent, if at all, would you support the following policies. ‘Having a patriotic curriculum in primary and secondary schools, whereby if children are taught about British or European slavery they must also be taught about non-British and non-European countries that have also engaged in slavery to ensure balance’.
To what extent, if at all, would support the following policies. ‘An immediate freeze on all immigration that is not essential for key areas like the National Health Service into Britain’
Some people are forecasting that the Labour Party might win a ‘super-majority’ at the forthcoming 2024 general election, winning a majority of nearly 300 seats or more. Which of the following comes closest to your view. (Good/Bad/Neither/DK)
If the voting intention question was first to be asked and without sight of the supplementaries then it's still okay.
Crosstabs look sensible - Leave voters Ref 43%, Con 27%, Lab 20%. Remain voters Lab 45%, Lib Dem 20%, Green 12%. Con GE19 voters Ref 41%, Con 40%, Lab 12%, Lab GE19 voters Lab 70%, Green 16%, Lib Dem 9%.
Surely by definition they have to ask the VI question first, isn't that a fundamental rule of polling?
I agree that if they ask all those other questions first, then the actual PP poll is useless garbage, they questionees been steered, but I would be amazed if that was the case. The BPC doesn't allow that?
Serious question: have People Polling ever produced another poll which was, it turns out, a massive outlier?
Because if they have a history of this then that changes things. Yes I know it is Matt Goodwin etc etc but they are members of the BPC and I need a bit more evidence before dismissing this. But maybe such evidence exists?
All the time, particularly around the Truss interregnum.
Where they produced outliers to everybody else were on some of their supplementaries because the questions were very leading.
He's cherry picking the polling answers he likes, no question. But that is not evidence that his outfit regularly produces absurdly outlying polls
Also, even if this is an outlier, it is SUCH an outlier it will still scare the shite out of Lab and Con. eg if he's overstating Reform by 3 and understating Lab and Con by 3 - ie a really major miss - that still gives us
Lab: 38 Reform: 21 Con: 18
And even that is explosive
My God, we need more polls!
A Spectator writer has tweeted his thoughts on this poll.
Farage will easily win Clacton and cannibalise the Tory Party, much the same as Trump with the GOP. He'll be leader of the Tory Party by the time of the next election, or whatever the Tory party calls itself then under Farage's leadership.
Populism works until it doesn't. Will he become PM in 4/5 years? Maybe, possibly or probably. Could be either outcome.
I've had a couple of private messages in the last 24 hours from right-wing friends, driven by the close to 1,000 crossings yesterday, half-seriously asking if we now need to "sink a few boats" to stop it.
Meanwhile legal immigration is several orders of magnitude greater than the rounding error that is small boats. Even as a proportion of asylum claims small boats is a small minority.
Good evening
It is simply against Maritime law to arbitrarily sink boats and the outcry would be deafening
No one told the Greek Coastguard
Are you trying to justify a rogue coastguard ignoring Mariime law and anyway the coastguard will have the law to deal with
It is a shocking development that anyone could even think of sinking boats with migrants, and who has to deal with the consequences of rescuing those in peril but the crews of the RNLI and border force boats risking their own lives
Shocking to those of us leading comfortable lives in agreeable houses.
Not so much to those who havent seen a decent pay rise in years due to immigrant competition for low/unskilled Labour, whos rent is going up for a poor quality s***hole due to competition from migrants chasing the same housing stock, and pull their rotten teeth out with pliers as they cannot get a dentist. Then see on the news that illegal enterers are collected and put up in hotels with free food.
And there are rather a lot of the latter.
As I have said, unless decent leaders on occasion do indecent things on occasion for the greater good (like Churchill sinking the French fleet in Mers-El-Kebir killing thousands of French Sailors), they are replaced by indecent leaders who will do very indecent things.
The decent leader doing indecent thing in this occasion would be deporting all males of military age entering the country Illegally on such boats to Kigali in short order without appeal.
The indecent leader doing a very indecent thing would use the Navy to sink a boat pour les encouragement les autres.
I never thought I would read on here such a shocking and unacceptable statement
It truely saddens me and maybe if you had witnessed a woman or a child drown in such circumstances as the rescuers have then you would discover your humanity
That this kind of thinking is considered acceptable in some quarters is the consequence of the government demonising migrants for their own political advantage. They richly deserve to be wiped out.
No it's not. It's the consequence of thousands of people from the third world turning up here every week without us apparently being able to do anything at all about it.
Without the people you persist in voting for being able to doing anything about it. Because they are muppets and grifters.
Serious question: have People Polling ever produced another poll which was, it turns out, a massive outlier?
Because if they have a history of this then that changes things. Yes I know it is Matt Goodwin etc etc but they are members of the BPC and I need a bit more evidence before dismissing this. But maybe such evidence exists?
All the time, particularly around the Truss interregnum.
Where they produced outliers to everybody else were on some of their supplementaries because the questions were very leading.
He's cherry picking the polling answers he likes, no question. But that is not evidence that his outfit regularly produces absurdly outlying polls
Also, even if this is an outlier, it is SUCH an outlier it will still scare the shite out of Lab and Con. eg if he's overstating Reform by 3 and understating Lab and Con by 3 - ie a really major miss - that still gives us
Lab: 38 Reform: 21 Con: 18
And even that is explosive
My God, we need more polls!
Well, 2 out of three released today do not show any Reform surge... Perhaps Goodwin has surged too soon, though?
Is the PP poll the only one post Reform manifesto? They did it all yesterday: 18th June
Serious question: have People Polling ever produced another poll which was, it turns out, a massive outlier?
Because if they have a history of this then that changes things. Yes I know it is Matt Goodwin etc etc but they are members of the BPC and I need a bit more evidence before dismissing this. But maybe such evidence exists?
All the time, particularly around the Truss interregnum.
Where they produced outliers to everybody else were on some of their supplementaries because the questions were very leading.
He's cherry picking the polling answers he likes, no question. But that is not evidence that his outfit regularly produces absurdly outlying polls
Also, even if this is an outlier, it is SUCH an outlier it will still scare the shite out of Lab and Con. eg if he's overstating Reform by 3 and understating Lab and Con by 3 - ie a really major miss - that still gives us
Lab: 38 Reform: 21 Con: 18
And even that is explosive
My God, we need more polls!
A Spectator writer has tweeted his thoughts on this poll.
Serious question: have People Polling ever produced another poll which was, it turns out, a massive outlier?
Because if they have a history of this then that changes things. Yes I know it is Matt Goodwin etc etc but they are members of the BPC and I need a bit more evidence before dismissing this. But maybe such evidence exists?
All the time, particularly around the Truss interregnum.
Where they produced outliers to everybody else were on some of their supplementaries because the questions were very leading.
He's cherry picking the polling answers he likes, no question. But that is not evidence that his outfit regularly produces absurdly outlying polls
Also, even if this is an outlier, it is SUCH an outlier it will still scare the shite out of Lab and Con. eg if he's overstating Reform by 3 and understating Lab and Con by 3 - ie a really major miss - that still gives us
Lab: 38 Reform: 21 Con: 18
And even that is explosive
My God, we need more polls!
A Spectator writer has tweeted his thoughts on this poll.
Exc: At last night’s Surrey Heath hustings, Samantha Goggins, the Reform candidate suggested that Margaret Thatcher’s Conservative government - not General Galtieri - was to blame for the Falklands War"
Going through that spreadsheet (for what it is) I find it very strange that only 33% of Reform voters voted for Brexit in 2016....
People Polling have either picked up a set of people who are missed by all other polls, discovered a trend before everyone else or have sampled a very strange set of people...
It's 33% of Leave voters who are now supporting the Reform party.
Reform UK’s candidate in Barnsley South has denied co-founding a crypto firm branded a ‘ponzi scheme’ - despite video showing he described himself as the firm’s UK head.
Back in 2022, then-cryto-king Bankman-Fried attempted to more-or-less buy Oregon's brand-new US House seat. Via sizable campaign contributions to his favored candidate in the Democratic primary in new Oregon CD6 AND also to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, in return for DCCC (aka "D-Trip") giving B-F's guy a free field.
HOWEVER, seems the actual 6th District Democratic voters disagreed with this grand bargain; they shunned the crypo-candidate (actually there were two!) instead nominating Andrea Salinas, who went on to win narrowly in the 2022 general election; she's been re-nominated for 2024 in a rematch with Mike Erickson, Republican nominee in 2022 and 2024.
For what it's worth (less than a crypto-farthing?) personally do NOT think Bankman-Fried was acting a Putinist agent or even fellow-investor; instead, he was eager to enlist (one way to put it anyway) more help in Congress to fight the anti-cryto side of the pseudo-coin.
Exc: At last night’s Surrey Heath hustings, Samantha Goggins, the Reform candidate suggested that Margaret Thatcher’s Conservative government - not General Galtieri - was to blame for the Falklands War
"We don't what's happening out there. We've already been put through the Afghan War by the Labour Party, the Falklands War by the Conservative Party, and we're possibly not too far away now from another war because obviously we are supporting the Ukraines as well."
Just thinking, if the late plato was still around, she'd probably be a ReFuk candidate.
I'm not sure she would. Plato fell for any old rubbish she'd seen on the American alt-right interwebs so she'd be in roughly the same place as Leon on Trump and Covid and have little to say on Farage, and possibly be in the process of losing her savings in some crypto scam. May she rest in peace.
Er, I think Trump is an absolute menace and a madman and I want him to lose, even to the useless, senile Biden, and I have said this a zillion times
Reform UK’s candidate in Barnsley South has denied co-founding a crypto firm branded a ‘ponzi scheme’ - despite video showing he described himself as the firm’s UK head.
Back in 2022, then-cryto-king Bankman-Fried attempted to more-or-less buy Oregon's brand-new US House seat. Via sizable campaign contributions to his favored candidate in the Democratic primary in new Oregon CD6 AND also to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, in return for DCCC (aka "D-Trip") giving B-F's guy a free field.
HOWEVER, seems the actual 6th District Democratic voters disagreed with this grand bargain; they shunned the crypo-candidate (actually there were two!) instead nominating Andrea Salinas, who went on to win narrowly in the 2022 general election; she's been re-nominated for 2024 in a rematch with Mike Erickson, Republican nominee in 2022 and 2024.
For what it's worth (less than a crypto-farthing?) personally do NOT think Bankman-Fried was acting a Putinist agent or even fellow-investor; instead, he was eager to enlist (one way to put it anyway) more help in Congress to fight the anti-cryto side of the pseudo-coin.
Its amazing how when it came looking into SBF political lobbying, that part of the investigation / case was swiftly dropped. Its seems he shovelled loads of money to Democrats, another FTX employee shovelled loads of money to the Republicans.
At some point - but not yet, clearly! - the MRP people are going to have to apply a smell test to their data. Here, for instance, we have the SNP losing 30 seats AND taking Orkney & Shetland which has been a Liberal seat for 70 years. Come on.
Exc: At last night’s Surrey Heath hustings, Samantha Goggins, the Reform candidate suggested that Margaret Thatcher’s Conservative government - not General Galtieri - was to blame for the Falklands War"
Exc: At last night’s Surrey Heath hustings, Samantha Goggins, the Reform candidate suggested that Margaret Thatcher’s Conservative government - not General Galtieri - was to blame for the Falklands War
"We don't what's happening out there. We've already been put through the Afghan War by the Labour Party, the Falklands War by the Conservative Party, and we're possibly not too far away now from another war because obviously we are supporting the Ukraines as well."
I've had a couple of private messages in the last 24 hours from right-wing friends, driven by the close to 1,000 crossings yesterday, half-seriously asking if we now need to "sink a few boats" to stop it.
Meanwhile legal immigration is several orders of magnitude greater than the rounding error that is small boats. Even as a proportion of asylum claims small boats is a small minority.
Good evening
It is simply against Maritime law to arbitrarily sink boats and the outcry would be deafening
No one told the Greek Coastguard
Are you trying to justify a rogue coastguard ignoring Mariime law and anyway the coastguard will have the law to deal with
It is a shocking development that anyone could even think of sinking boats with migrants, and who has to deal with the consequences of rescuing those in peril but the crews of the RNLI and border force boats risking their own lives
Shocking to those of us leading comfortable lives in agreeable houses.
Not so much to those who havent seen a decent pay rise in years due to immigrant competition for low/unskilled Labour, whos rent is going up for a poor quality s***hole due to competition from migrants chasing the same housing stock, and pull their rotten teeth out with pliers as they cannot get a dentist. Then see on the news that illegal enterers are collected and put up in hotels with free food.
And there are rather a lot of the latter.
As I have said, unless decent leaders on occasion do indecent things on occasion for the greater good (like Churchill sinking the French fleet in Mers-El-Kebir killing thousands of French Sailors), they are replaced by indecent leaders who will do very indecent things.
The decent leader doing indecent thing in this occasion would be deporting all males of military age entering the country Illegally on such boats to Kigali in short order without appeal.
The indecent leader doing a very indecent thing would use the Navy to sink a boat pour les encouragement les autres.
I never thought I would read on here such a shocking and unacceptable statement
It truely saddens me and maybe if you had witnessed a woman or a child drown in such circumstances as the rescuers have then you would discover your humanity
That this kind of thinking is considered acceptable in some quarters is the consequence of the government demonising migrants for their own political advantage. They richly deserve to be wiped out.
Farage and Reform certainly but I fear we are witnessing a growing and worrying descent into the sewer of hard right politics
At some point - but not yet, clearly! - the MRP people are going to have to apply a smell test to their data. Here, for instance, we have the SNP losing 30 seats AND taking Orkney & Shetland which has been a Liberal seat for 70 years. Come on.
I thought the Bank of England was independent - the Reform wheeze of getting it to stop paying interest to commercial banks on QE reserves seems to undermine that independence somewhat and suggests a Reform Govenrment would be back to the old nonsense of authoritarian centralisation by-passing scrutiny.
There's also the small matter the £35 billion of saving s being mentioned isn't widely accepted - there "could" be a saving of perhaps £5 - £10 billion which isn't to be sneezed at in all fairness.
I imagine Farage would prioritise tax cuts for the wealthy a la Truss/Kwarteng over investing any savings in improving public services.
I thought the Bank of England was independent - the Reform wheeze of getting it to stop paying interest to commercial banks on QE reserves seems to undermine that independence somewhat and suggests a Reform Govenrment would be back to the old nonsense of authoritarian centralisation by-passing scrutiny.
There's also the small matter the £35 billion of saving s being mentioned isn't widely accepted - there "could" be a saving of perhaps £5 - £10 billion which isn't to be sneezed at in all fairness.
I imagine Farage would prioritise tax cuts for the wealthy a la Truss/Kwarteng over investing any savings in improving public services.
Isn't this policy stolen from Gordon Brown big brain policy document?
Exc: At last night’s Surrey Heath hustings, Samantha Goggins, the Reform candidate suggested that Margaret Thatcher’s Conservative government - not General Galtieri - was to blame for the Falklands War"
Serious question: have People Polling ever produced another poll which was, it turns out, a massive outlier?
Because if they have a history of this then that changes things. Yes I know it is Matt Goodwin etc etc but they are members of the BPC and I need a bit more evidence before dismissing this. But maybe such evidence exists?
All the time, particularly around the Truss interregnum.
Where they produced outliers to everybody else were on some of their supplementaries because the questions were very leading.
He's cherry picking the polling answers he likes, no question. But that is not evidence that his outfit regularly produces absurdly outlying polls
Also, even if this is an outlier, it is SUCH an outlier it will still scare the shite out of Lab and Con. eg if he's overstating Reform by 3 and understating Lab and Con by 3 - ie a really major miss - that still gives us
Lab: 38 Reform: 21 Con: 18
And even that is explosive
My God, we need more polls!
A Spectator writer has tweeted his thoughts on this poll.
At some point - but not yet, clearly! - the MRP people are going to have to apply a smell test to their data. Here, for instance, we have the SNP losing 30 seats AND taking Orkney & Shetland which has been a Liberal seat for 70 years. Come on.
I've had a couple of private messages in the last 24 hours from right-wing friends, driven by the close to 1,000 crossings yesterday, half-seriously asking if we now need to "sink a few boats" to stop it.
Meanwhile legal immigration is several orders of magnitude greater than the rounding error that is small boats. Even as a proportion of asylum claims small boats is a small minority.
Good evening
It is simply against Maritime law to arbitrarily sink boats and the outcry would be deafening
No one told the Greek Coastguard
Are you trying to justify a rogue coastguard ignoring Mariime law and anyway the coastguard will have the law to deal with
It is a shocking development that anyone could even think of sinking boats with migrants, and who has to deal with the consequences of rescuing those in peril but the crews of the RNLI and border force boats risking their own lives
Shocking to those of us leading comfortable lives in agreeable houses.
Not so much to those who havent seen a decent pay rise in years due to immigrant competition for low/unskilled Labour, whos rent is going up for a poor quality s***hole due to competition from migrants chasing the same housing stock, and pull their rotten teeth out with pliers as they cannot get a dentist. Then see on the news that illegal enterers are collected and put up in hotels with free food.
And there are rather a lot of the latter.
As I have said, unless decent leaders on occasion do indecent things on occasion for the greater good (like Churchill sinking the French fleet in Mers-El-Kebir killing thousands of French Sailors), they are replaced by indecent leaders who will do very indecent things.
The decent leader doing indecent thing in this occasion would be deporting all males of military age entering the country Illegally on such boats to Kigali in short order without appeal.
The indecent leader doing a very indecent thing would use the Navy to sink a boat pour les encouragement les autres.
I never thought I would read on here such a shocking and unacceptable statement
It truely saddens me and maybe if you had witnessed a woman or a child drown in such circumstances as the rescuers have then you would discover your humanity
That this kind of thinking is considered acceptable in some quarters is the consequence of the government demonising migrants for their own political advantage. They richly deserve to be wiped out.
Farage and Reform certainly but I fear we are witnessing a growing and worrying descent into the sewer of hard right politics
Just thinking, if the late plato was still around, she'd probably be a ReFuk candidate.
I'm not sure she would. Plato fell for any old rubbish she'd seen on the American alt-right interwebs so she'd be in roughly the same place as Leon on Trump and Covid and have little to say on Farage, and possibly be in the process of losing her savings in some crypto scam. May she rest in peace.
Out of interest, what became of two other regular (I think) femaie contributors, Carlotta Vance and Cyclefree?
Cyclefree is still posting headers, but not rolling round in the muck with us proles in the comments. Her prerogative, tbh.
Would love to know where Carlotta is as she hasn't posted in a couple of weeks. We've argued - mostly politely - over the trans issue but I agree with her on a lot of other stuff and think she's essentially sound. Hopefully, as it's summer, she's just enjoying her hols.
We do have the Norstat poll which had fieldwork 17 to 19 June so that includes the Reform manifesto and an extra day of polling and that had Lab 40 Con 20 and Reform 19 , Lib Dem 12 and Green on 5.
So if you look at PP it’s not so crazy looking . Lab share lower because of a higher Green score and a bit more movement to Lib Dem who went from 10 to 12.
The Tory share might be a shock but it’s not what I’d call totally outlandish given MOE and more Tory to Reform .
Again as mentioned earlier as long as PP sequenced the questions correctly then I don’t see we can just dismiss this poll.
I’m not a great lover of one day fieldwork for two reasons , you can capture temporary dramatic effects and when you’re trying to get sufficient samples for each demographic it can be difficult .
Exc: At last night’s Surrey Heath hustings, Samantha Goggins, the Reform candidate suggested that Margaret Thatcher’s Conservative government - not General Galtieri - was to blame for the Falklands War"
It appears like Cameron's prophecy over social media users, his prophecy of UKIP / Reform candidates is also true.
Francis, forgive me, I spend less and less time on this site these days, but unless I'm wrong, I've picked up on you headed more in a centrist direction of late.
Exc: At last night’s Surrey Heath hustings, Samantha Goggins, the Reform candidate suggested that Margaret Thatcher’s Conservative government - not General Galtieri - was to blame for the Falklands War"
A stock view amongst the British Left not long ago. Who actually composes Reform? I assumed it was hard-Right Tories, but possibly it has more than its fair share of marooned Corbynites.
It appears like Cameron's prophecy over social media users, his prophecy of UKIP / Reform candidates is also true.
Francis, forgive me, I spend less and less time on this site these days, but unless I'm wrong, I've picked up on you headed more in a centrist direction of late.
Am I wrong?
I am not sure I have headed anywhere. Its not me who has moved, the political parties have.
Exc: At last night’s Surrey Heath hustings, Samantha Goggins, the Reform candidate suggested that Margaret Thatcher’s Conservative government - not General Galtieri - was to blame for the Falklands War
"We don't what's happening out there. We've already been put through the Afghan War by the Labour Party, the Falklands War by the Conservative Party, and we're possibly not too far away now from another war because obviously we are supporting the Ukraines as well."
This IS going to be a real problem for them. They have a lot of bat-shit useless candidates
The ideal result for Reform is a large vote - bigger than the Tories - but only a few seats - 20 max
This poll shows Reform winning places where they have no councillors, no party organisation of any kind. Its just got to be balls. Its not just that FPTP will stop them winning, its lack of votes full stop that will stop them winning.
I've had a couple of private messages in the last 24 hours from right-wing friends, driven by the close to 1,000 crossings yesterday, half-seriously asking if we now need to "sink a few boats" to stop it.
Meanwhile legal immigration is several orders of magnitude greater than the rounding error that is small boats. Even as a proportion of asylum claims small boats is a small minority.
Good evening
It is simply against Maritime law to arbitrarily sink boats and the outcry would be deafening
No one told the Greek Coastguard
Are you trying to justify a rogue coastguard ignoring Mariime law and anyway the coastguard will have the law to deal with
It is a shocking development that anyone could even think of sinking boats with migrants, and who has to deal with the consequences of rescuing those in peril but the crews of the RNLI and border force boats risking their own lives
Shocking to those of us leading comfortable lives in agreeable houses.
Not so much to those who havent seen a decent pay rise in years due to immigrant competition for low/unskilled Labour, whos rent is going up for a poor quality s***hole due to competition from migrants chasing the same housing stock, and pull their rotten teeth out with pliers as they cannot get a dentist. Then see on the news that illegal enterers are collected and put up in hotels with free food.
And there are rather a lot of the latter.
As I have said, unless decent leaders on occasion do indecent things on occasion for the greater good (like Churchill sinking the French fleet in Mers-El-Kebir killing thousands of French Sailors), they are replaced by indecent leaders who will do very indecent things.
The decent leader doing indecent thing in this occasion would be deporting all males of military age entering the country Illegally on such boats to Kigali in short order without appeal.
The indecent leader doing a very indecent thing would use the Navy to sink a boat pour les encouragement les autres.
I never thought I would read on here such a shocking and unacceptable statement
It truely saddens me and maybe if you had witnessed a woman or a child drown in such circumstances as the rescuers have then you would discover your humanity
That this kind of thinking is considered acceptable in some quarters is the consequence of the government demonising migrants for their own political advantage. They richly deserve to be wiped out.
Farage and Reform certainly but I fear we are witnessing a growing and worrying descent into the sewer of hard right politics
Farage will win Clackton and canna
Cannae?
Farage is Hannibal, and I claim my £5.
Cewrtainly not the Small Isle of Canna.
It does mean a future Tory leader will defeat him at Zama, though.
Exc: At last night’s Surrey Heath hustings, Samantha Goggins, the Reform candidate suggested that Margaret Thatcher’s Conservative government - not General Galtieri - was to blame for the Falklands War"
Hang on though, I thought it was accepted history that the British government had given the impression that they would not (or could not) defend the islands, so there is some truth in the statement? A bit like the British and French being partly responsible for Germany invading Poland as we allowed Hitler to get his way in Czechoslovakia.
Exc: At last night’s Surrey Heath hustings, Samantha Goggins, the Reform candidate suggested that Margaret Thatcher’s Conservative government - not General Galtieri - was to blame for the Falklands War"
A stock view amongst the British Left not long ago. Who actually composes Reform? I assumed it was hard-Right Tories, but possibly it has more than its fair share of marooned Corbynites.
I've had a couple of private messages in the last 24 hours from right-wing friends, driven by the close to 1,000 crossings yesterday, half-seriously asking if we now need to "sink a few boats" to stop it.
Meanwhile legal immigration is several orders of magnitude greater than the rounding error that is small boats. Even as a proportion of asylum claims small boats is a small minority.
Good evening
It is simply against Maritime law to arbitrarily sink boats and the outcry would be deafening
No one told the Greek Coastguard.
Hate to break this to you, but people do things knowing they’re illegal.
Exc: At last night’s Surrey Heath hustings, Samantha Goggins, the Reform candidate suggested that Margaret Thatcher’s Conservative government - not General Galtieri - was to blame for the Falklands War"
A stock view amongst the British Left not long ago. Who actually composes Reform? I assumed it was hard-Right Tories, but possibly it has more than its fair share of marooned Corbynites.
It appears like Cameron's prophecy over social media users, his prophecy of UKIP / Reform candidates is also true.
Francis, forgive me, I spend less and less time on this site these days, but unless I'm wrong, I've picked up on you headed more in a centrist direction of late.
Am I wrong?
I am not sure I have headed anywhere.
I used to have you down as being broadly on the right of the Conservative Party, I assumed you would be very sympathetic to Reform etc. Instead, you appear to be going in the opposite direction.
Exc: At last night’s Surrey Heath hustings, Samantha Goggins, the Reform candidate suggested that Margaret Thatcher’s Conservative government - not General Galtieri - was to blame for the Falklands War"
A stock view amongst the British Left not long ago. Who actually composes Reform? I assumed it was hard-Right Tories, but possibly it has more than its fair share of marooned Corbynites.
Non regular voters, especially non regular pre Brexit.
Exc: At last night’s Surrey Heath hustings, Samantha Goggins, the Reform candidate suggested that Margaret Thatcher’s Conservative government - not General Galtieri - was to blame for the Falklands War
"We don't what's happening out there. We've already been put through the Afghan War by the Labour Party, the Falklands War by the Conservative Party, and we're possibly not too far away now from another war because obviously we are supporting the Ukraines as well."
This IS going to be a real problem for them. They have a lot of bat-shit useless candidates
The ideal result for Reform is a large vote - bigger than the Tories - but only a few seats - 20 max
This poll shows Reform winning places where they have no councillors, no party organisation of any kind. Its just got to be balls. Its not just that FPTP will stop them winning, its lack of votes full stop that will stop them winning.
Remember the OGH golden rule, a rogue poll is a poll with numbers you dislike
@nico679 is right. We cannot simpky dismiss this poll simply because you loathe what it tells you. As it is quite an outlier, we can be healthily skeptical is all. As ever, we need more polls to confirm if this is a trend, or just a random bit of overloud noise
If this is a trend this will be the most sensational election in the history of the universe
Exc: At last night’s Surrey Heath hustings, Samantha Goggins, the Reform candidate suggested that Margaret Thatcher’s Conservative government - not General Galtieri - was to blame for the Falklands War
"We don't what's happening out there. We've already been put through the Afghan War by the Labour Party, the Falklands War by the Conservative Party, and we're possibly not too far away now from another war because obviously we are supporting the Ukraines as well."
It’s the line about Ukraine that’s disgusting, and there’s a lot of that about in Reform.
Had they just suggested Thatcher’s Government created the Falklands then I might suggest that they had some sort of point. That Gvt failed to deter Argentina, and they could have. They gave the impression they didn’t care, until it happened when of course Thatcher instilled backbone into our response and was very clear eyed about fascists.
It appears like Cameron's prophecy over social media users, his prophecy of UKIP / Reform candidates is also true.
Francis, forgive me, I spend less and less time on this site these days, but unless I'm wrong, I've picked up on you headed more in a centrist direction of late.
Am I wrong?
I am not sure I have headed anywhere.
I used to have you down as being broadly on the right of the Conservative Party, I assumed you would be very sympathetic to Reform etc. Instead, you appear to be going in the opposite direction.
Are you gonna vote Labour?
No you definitely had me pegged totally wrong. You will struggle to find me having posted anything positive about Boris or Truss or Farage (beyond thinking something might be a clever tactic, which doesn't mean I agree with it).
Exc: At last night’s Surrey Heath hustings, Samantha Goggins, the Reform candidate suggested that Margaret Thatcher’s Conservative government - not General Galtieri - was to blame for the Falklands War
"We don't what's happening out there. We've already been put through the Afghan War by the Labour Party, the Falklands War by the Conservative Party, and we're possibly not too far away now from another war because obviously we are supporting the Ukraines as well."
This IS going to be a real problem for them. They have a lot of bat-shit useless candidates
The ideal result for Reform is a large vote - bigger than the Tories - but only a few seats - 20 max
This poll shows Reform winning places where they have no councillors, no party organisation of any kind. Its just got to be balls. Its not just that FPTP will stop them winning, its lack of votes full stop that will stop them winning.
Remember the OGH golden rule, a rogue poll is a poll with numbers you dislike
@nico679 is right. We cannot simpky dismiss this poll simply because you loathe what it tells you. As it is quite an outlier, we can be healthily skeptical is all. As ever, we need more polls to confirm if this is a trend, or just a random bit of overloud noise
If this is a trend this will be the most sensational election in the history of the universe
Are we getting the regular YouGov/Times poll tomorrow?
If any other pollster was going to show a result like PeoplePolling I think it would probably be YouGov.
As I mentioned earlier, if you take 3% off the CON figure and add it to REF (last YouGov numbers) you get a figure remarkably close to People Polling. So the idea that this poll is just too zany and nuts to be legit doesn’t really look right to me (purely on the headline figures). I could see YouGov throwing up something similar, if there’s been movement to Farage in the last week. That wouldn’t be unbelievable given he has had his mani…contract launch.
Exc: At last night’s Surrey Heath hustings, Samantha Goggins, the Reform candidate suggested that Margaret Thatcher’s Conservative government - not General Galtieri - was to blame for the Falklands War"
A stock view amongst the British Left not long ago. Who actually composes Reform? I assumed it was hard-Right Tories, but possibly it has more than its fair share of marooned Corbynites.
Well Brexit could never have happened without Jezza
Exc: At last night’s Surrey Heath hustings, Samantha Goggins, the Reform candidate suggested that Margaret Thatcher’s Conservative government - not General Galtieri - was to blame for the Falklands War"
There were some antecedents (Naval cuts?) that were the fault of the Government. Desmond Carrington resigned over it.
Proposed withdrawal of HMS Endeavour, talks on joint sovereignty, no full UK citizenship for the Kelpers, and so on; but (to put it mildly) that hardly qualifies as starting a war with an invasion by LVTP-7s and armed marines. Vide Franks Report.
. [Though (appropriate as it may seem) it was not Desmond who resigned, and it was not Lord Peter Carrington who presented The Music Must Go On.]
Exc: At last night’s Surrey Heath hustings, Samantha Goggins, the Reform candidate suggested that Margaret Thatcher’s Conservative government - not General Galtieri - was to blame for the Falklands War
"We don't what's happening out there. We've already been put through the Afghan War by the Labour Party, the Falklands War by the Conservative Party, and we're possibly not too far away now from another war because obviously we are supporting the Ukraines as well."
This IS going to be a real problem for them. They have a lot of bat-shit useless candidates
The ideal result for Reform is a large vote - bigger than the Tories - but only a few seats - 20 max
This poll shows Reform winning places where they have no councillors, no party organisation of any kind. Its just got to be balls. Its not just that FPTP will stop them winning, its lack of votes full stop that will stop them winning.
Remember the OGH golden rule, a rogue poll is a poll with numbers you dislike
@nico679 is right. We cannot simpky dismiss this poll simply because you loathe what it tells you. As it is quite an outlier, we can be healthily skeptical is all. As ever, we need more polls to confirm if this is a trend, or just a random bit of overloud noise
If this is a trend this will be the most sensational election in the history of the universe
As I constantly have to tell students, you can’t just pick which data to exclude because it doesn’t ‘fit’. However in this case there is suspicion about the source, so skepticism remains a good thing here.
Exc: At last night’s Surrey Heath hustings, Samantha Goggins, the Reform candidate suggested that Margaret Thatcher’s Conservative government - not General Galtieri - was to blame for the Falklands War"
A stock view amongst the British Left not long ago. Who actually composes Reform? I assumed it was hard-Right Tories, but possibly it has more than its fair share of marooned Corbynites.
There's definitely an element that without being far left is essentially "anti-government crank" and leans right but also picks conspiracy theories/support for enemies that are most common on the far left.
You see it on numerous issues on far right and left where they come to the same conclusions because the West is either a bunch of 'Woke Globalists' or 'Evil Capitalist Imperialists'.
Exc: At last night’s Surrey Heath hustings, Samantha Goggins, the Reform candidate suggested that Margaret Thatcher’s Conservative government - not General Galtieri - was to blame for the Falklands War
"We don't what's happening out there. We've already been put through the Afghan War by the Labour Party, the Falklands War by the Conservative Party, and we're possibly not too far away now from another war because obviously we are supporting the Ukraines as well."
It’s the line about Ukraine that’s disgusting, and there’s a lot of that about in Reform.
Had they just suggested Thatcher’s Government created the Falklands then I might suggest that they had some sort of point. That Gvt failed to deter Argentina, and they could have. They gave the impression they didn’t care, until it happened when of course Thatcher instilled backbone into our response and was very clear eyed about fascists.
She was also clear about appeasement which is why she would have detested Nigel Farage.
Comments
£10 at 1000/1 with @Sandpit that we see Zero Tory Seats
£50 with @TimS at evens that Tories poll sub 26% on the day
I'm confident of the second but not sure about the first
Maybe they are right. The art of polling is to get a good sample and stretch and squash that sample to better match the UK population as a whole.
But Goodwin does have a set of beliefs that will cause him to do different degrees of processing. Not to fiddle the results, but because his bubble (and we all have one) is more Reform-friendly than many others'.
What he's doing counts as legit, which isn't to say he's right.
I mean I know its after Gin o´clock for some people here, but there is fantasy and then there is absurdity.
STORY
Reform UK’s candidate in Barnsley South has denied co-founding a crypto firm branded a ‘ponzi scheme’ - despite video showing he described himself as the firm’s UK head.
https://x.com/mikeysmith/status/1803478522473697283
Wasn't there something similar with Belarus/Poland.
I don’t think this, by the way, but a lot do.
One thing the government is a bit remiss on is this.
The popular view is that the people on boats are criminals and uneducated.
The truth is that if you live in the Somali or Syrian equivalent of Jaywick you are not going anywhere. It is predominantly the middle/professional classes that can afford the thousands in "transport fees"
There are actually a lot of people sat bored and depressed in hotels who could be doing very useful roles.
Where they produced outliers to everybody else were on some of their supplementaries because the questions were very leading.
He also produced some very misleading Tweets
https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2020/07/26/your-regular-reminder-that-you-should-always-look-at-the-full-tables-rather-than-just-the-tweets-that-go-viral/
https://x.com/ilyasut/status/1803472978753303014
Ilya Sutskever (@ilyasut) on X
I am starting a new company:
Superintelligence is within reach.
Labour: 32.7%
UKIP: 23.9%
Conservative: 18.7%
so I think the evidence that Labour would be vulnerable in the right circumstances is actually quite strong.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Sunderland_City_Council_election
Another issue: the schools won't be covered by the Financial Services Compensation Scheme. If they go bust, then the putative parents will have to queue with the other creditors ... yet if the money is placed in some sort of independent escrow, it's not in the school's hands, so presumably won't qualify as point of supply = 2026 or whatever, rather than right now.
He's cherry picking the polling answers he likes, no question. But that is not evidence that his outfit regularly produces absurdly outlying polls
Also, even if this is an outlier, it is SUCH an outlier it will still scare the shite out of Lab and Con. eg if he's overstating Reform by 3 and understating Lab and Con by 3 - ie a really major miss - that still gives us
Lab: 38
Reform: 21
Con: 18
And even that is explosive
My God, we need more polls!
NEW BOMBSHIT POLL
https://x.com/alexmassie/status/1803516132705407239
To what extent, if at all, would you support the following policies. ‘Having a patriotic curriculum in primary and secondary schools, whereby if children are taught about British or European slavery they must also be taught about non-British and non-European countries that have also engaged in slavery to ensure balance’.
To what extent, if at all, would support the following policies. ‘An immediate freeze on all immigration that is not essential for key areas like the National Health Service into Britain’
Some people are forecasting that the Labour Party might win a ‘super-majority’ at the forthcoming 2024 general election, winning a majority of nearly 300 seats or more. Which of the following comes closest to your view. (Good/Bad/Neither/DK)
If the voting intention question was first to be asked and without sight of the supplementaries then it's still okay.
Crosstabs look sensible - Leave voters Ref 43%, Con 27%, Lab 20%. Remain voters Lab 45%, Lib Dem 20%, Green 12%. Con GE19 voters Ref 41%, Con 40%, Lab 12%, Lab GE19 voters Lab 70%, Green 16%, Lib Dem 9%.
If any other pollster was going to show a result like PeoplePolling I think it would probably be YouGov.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_&_Order_(British_TV_series)
Not seen any more election signs than the couple I've noted previously either. Will go for a walk later and see if I do. Perhaps past Laura Pidcock's old house!
I agree that if they ask all those other questions first, then the actual PP poll is useless garbage, they questionees been steered, but I would be amazed if that was the case. The BPC doesn't allow that?
Can we get Roger in for a tiebreaker please?
Populism works until it doesn't. Will he become PM in 4/5 years? Maybe, possibly or probably. Could be either outcome.
Genuine question.
This poll is bollards.
"James Heale
@JAHeale
Exc: At last night’s Surrey Heath hustings, Samantha Goggins, the Reform candidate suggested that Margaret Thatcher’s Conservative government - not General Galtieri - was to blame for the Falklands War"
https://x.com/JAHeale/status/1803507448696938633
HOWEVER, seems the actual 6th District Democratic voters disagreed with this grand bargain; they shunned the crypo-candidate (actually there were two!) instead nominating Andrea Salinas, who went on to win narrowly in the 2022 general election; she's been re-nominated for 2024 in a rematch with Mike Erickson, Republican nominee in 2022 and 2024.
For what it's worth (less than a crypto-farthing?) personally do NOT think Bankman-Fried was acting a Putinist agent or even fellow-investor; instead, he was eager to enlist (one way to put it anyway) more help in Congress to fight the anti-cryto side of the pseudo-coin.
Just listen to that audience reaction.
Exc: At last night’s Surrey Heath hustings, Samantha Goggins, the Reform candidate suggested that Margaret Thatcher’s Conservative government - not General Galtieri - was to blame for the Falklands War
"We don't what's happening out there. We've already been put through the Afghan War by the Labour Party, the Falklands War by the Conservative Party, and we're possibly not too far away now from another war because obviously we are supporting the Ukraines as well."
https://x.com/JAHeale/status/1803507448696938633
alexmassie
@alexmassie
At some point - but not yet, clearly! - the MRP people are going to have to apply a smell test to their data. Here, for instance, we have the SNP losing 30 seats AND taking Orkney & Shetland which has been a Liberal seat for 70 years. Come on.
https://x.com/alexmassie/status/1803501366071140596
The ideal result for Reform is a large vote - bigger than the Tories - but only a few seats - 20 max
Farage is Hannibal, and I claim my £5.
Didcot & Wantage, YouGov MRP
LD 43%
Con 23%
Lab 16%
Ref 15%
Grn 4%
https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/49809-second-yougov-2024-election-mrp-shows-conservatives-on-lowest-seat-total-in-history
There's also the small matter the £35 billion of saving s being mentioned isn't widely accepted - there "could" be a saving of perhaps £5 - £10 billion which isn't to be sneezed at in all fairness.
I imagine Farage would prioritise tax cuts for the wealthy a la Truss/Kwarteng over investing any savings in improving public services.
I want it to happen just for the LOLZ
Would love to know where Carlotta is as she hasn't posted in a couple of weeks. We've argued - mostly politely - over the trans issue but I agree with her on a lot of other stuff and think she's essentially sound. Hopefully, as it's summer, she's just enjoying her hols.
So if you look at PP it’s not so crazy looking . Lab share lower because of a higher Green score and a bit more movement to Lib Dem who went from 10 to 12.
The Tory share might be a shock but it’s not what I’d call totally outlandish given MOE and more Tory to Reform .
Again as mentioned earlier as long as PP sequenced the questions correctly then I don’t see we can just dismiss this poll.
I’m not a great lover of one day fieldwork for two reasons , you can capture temporary dramatic effects and when you’re trying to get sufficient samples for each demographic it can be difficult .
Am I wrong?
Your politics interest me.
Labour 40%
Conservatives 20%
Reform 19%
Liberal Democrats 12%
Greens 5%
https://aws.norstat.no/uk-political-polling/Gb Tables for publication 190624.pdf
Norstat (formerly Panelbase)
Lab 40%
Con 20%
Ref 19%
LD 12%
Grn 5%
SNP 3%
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2024_United_Kingdom_general_election#National_poll_results
Not all bad.
Are you gonna vote Labour?
@nico679 is right. We cannot simpky dismiss this poll simply because you loathe what it tells you. As it is quite an outlier, we can be healthily skeptical is all. As ever, we need more polls to confirm if this is a trend, or just a random bit of overloud noise
If this is a trend this will be the most sensational election in the history of the universe
17–19 Jun Norstat
GB 2,059
Lab 40%
Con 20%
Reform 19%
LibDem12%
SNP 3%
Green 5%
Had they just suggested Thatcher’s Government created the Falklands then I might suggest that they had some sort of point. That Gvt failed to deter Argentina, and they could have. They gave the impression they didn’t care, until it happened when of course Thatcher instilled backbone into our response and was very clear eyed about fascists.
. [Though (appropriate as it may seem) it was not Desmond who resigned, and it was not Lord Peter Carrington who presented The Music Must Go On.]
You see it on numerous issues on far right and left where they come to the same conclusions because the West is either a bunch of 'Woke Globalists' or 'Evil Capitalist Imperialists'.
Something is wrong. I don't believe that many people have read the Reform manifesto and thought Wow!
What is going on??? Maybe the PP poll is simply an outlier. Goodwin himself seems a little skeptical in that clip I posted earlier