I've had a couple of private messages in the last 24 hours from right-wing friends, driven by the close to 1,000 crossings yesterday, half-seriously asking if we now need to "sink a few boats" to stop it.
Meanwhile legal immigration is several orders of magnitude greater than the rounding error that is small boats. Even as a proportion of asylum claims small boats is a small minority.
Good evening
It is simply against Maritime law to arbitrarily sink boats and the outcry would be deafening
Where is cheating defined? It isn't afaik. Can a prosecutor convince a jury it is cheating? Seems plausible to me. Can a defence lawyer convince a jury the opposite? Plausible too.
Incidentally I think somebody up thread or in the previous thread suggested that the reason the police officer was charged with misconduct in public office but the MP was not was that an MP wasn't technically in a "public office". It turns out that the CPS say in https://www.cps.gov.uk/legal-guidance/misconduct-public-office that it has been held that MPs and other elected officials do count as being in public office, so the discrepancy in handling the situation isn't for that reason.
I've had a couple of private messages in the last 24 hours from right-wing friends, driven by the close to 1,000 crossings yesterday, half-seriously asking if we now need to "sink a few boats" to stop it.
Meanwhile legal immigration is several orders of magnitude greater than the rounding error that is small boats. Even as a proportion of asylum claims small boats is a small minority.
Good evening
It is simply against Maritime law to arbitrarily sink boats and the outcry would be deafening
Having had a deep dive into the various MRPS there seem to be three real distinctions.
1) Do you like More In Common's bespoke system of weighting? It certainly helps the Cons - that does not mean that it isn't right.
2) Do you think tactical voting is going to be an issue at this election and especially anti-Con tactical voting? Check some results and you will see that MIC and (to a degree) Ipsos are dubious about it.
3) Do you think Reform can turn those poll ratings into actual votes? Again MIC and (to a degree) Ipsos are the sceptics.
If I am putting my money down then I'm probably siding with the YouGov. It just has less 'eyebrow-raising' results than the others.
Electoral calculus has them 4th in seats on those numbers.
I think we should consider the possibility that the Goodwin poll is more of a first-mover than an outlier and that Labour in the mid-30s and Reform in the mid-20s is real.
I've had a couple of private messages in the last 24 hours from right-wing friends, driven by the close to 1,000 crossings yesterday, half-seriously asking if we now need to "sink a few boats" to stop it.
We could always actually fund the courts and streamline processeses so that claims are handled quickly and those that should be deported are. I know its dangerous and radical heresy to suggest such things these days, much easier to howl at the wind.
That won't be enough since so many qualify.
The rules need to be changed or, I fear, eventually force will be used.
To save a few quid on the courts, we hold asylum seekers at far greater public expense, ban them from working for 2-3 years whilst awaiting a decision. Alternatively we could fund the courts, quickly deport those who should be deported and gain taxes from the ones who stay rather than fund them.
If Conservatives can't understand that funding the courts and encouraging people to work is the conservative thing to do then it shows why they are about to be rightly hammered.
Imagine that the People Polling poll is possibly prescient. That would mean that Nigel Farage is within a whisker of being Leader of the Opposition. Who would be on the Shadow Front Bench? Tice as Shadow Foreign Secretary? Anderson as Shadow Chancellor?
I'm probably going to vote for Reform. Possible I might vote Labour to ensure the wet who is standing for Mid Beds is defeated.
But probably I will vote Reform to kick them all in the nuts. The pompous prattle here that farage is Mosley/Hitler/Sundry Fascist is making my mind up.
Centrist liberals disagreeing with non centrist liberal views is one thing. Centrist liberals considering non centrist liberal views as beneath contempt and ideally disbarred is another matter entirely.
I hope they do well enough to destroy the Conservative Party and take over what remains, turning it into a less economically right wing and more socially right wing party. Along the lines of places like South Korea, and (modern) Japan. Not Nazi Germany.
Imagine that the People Polling poll is possibly prescient. That would mean that Nigel Farage is within a whisker of being Leader of the Opposition. Who would be on the Shadow Front Bench? Tice as Shadow Foreign Secretary? Anderson as Shadow Chancellor?
Electoral calculus has them 4th in seats on those numbers.
I think we should consider the possibility that the Goodwin poll is more of a first-mover than an outlier and that Labour in the mid-30s and Reform in the mid-20s is real.
Lol. Top trolling, William.
Fancy a bet that these numbers are not repeated on any of the next three polls?
I'm probably going to vote for Reform. Possible I might vote Labour to ensure the wet who is standing for Mid Beds is defeated.
But probably I will vote Reform to kick them all in the nuts. The pompous prattle here that farage is Mosley/Hitler/Sundry Fascist is making my mind up.
Centrist liberals disagreeing with non centrist liberal views is one thing. Centrist liberals considering non centrist liberal views as beneath contempt and ideally disbarred is another matter entirely.
I hope they do well enough to destroy the Conservative Party and take over what remains, turning it into a less economically right wing and more socially right wing party. Along the lines of places like South Korea, and (modern) Japan. Not Nazi Germany.
What first attracted you to the Putin defending/enabling Nigel Farage?
Labour tried to gag Black lawyer who wrote party’s own racism report Exclusive: Martin Forde KC says people will see letter from party responding to his criticisms as a ‘collateral attack on a Black professional’
Labour attempted to gag a prominent Black barrister who authored a report that exposed a “hierarchy of racism” within the party, The Independent can reveal.
In a letter sent by lawyers representing Labour, Martin Forde KC was warned that he was “acting against the party’s interest” after he gave an interview highlighting Labour’s failures in relation to the report.
Keir Starmer has never engaged with me about the findings of the report he commissioned me to write says Forde
Does he release his figures and methodology. He's part of the BPC right? The trouble is that his whole focus now seems to be on boosting Reform whilst trying to be an independent pollster.
I think all the PBers claiming that this is a fraudulent poll are treading on very thin ice. OGH had a firm rule that you do NOT impugn pollsters without serious evidence, esp if they are members of the BPC (I presume they are?)
I've had a couple of private messages in the last 24 hours from right-wing friends, driven by the close to 1,000 crossings yesterday, half-seriously asking if we now need to "sink a few boats" to stop it.
Meanwhile legal immigration is several orders of magnitude greater than the rounding error that is small boats. Even as a proportion of asylum claims small boats is a small minority.
Good evening
It is simply against Maritime law to arbitrarily sink boats and the outcry would be deafening
No one told the Greek Coastguard
Are you trying to justify a rogue coastguard ignoring Mariime law and anyway the coastguard will have the law to deal with
It is a shocking development that anyone could even think of sinking boats with migrants, and who has to deal with the consequences of rescuing those in peril but the crews of the RNLI and border force boats risking their own lives
Electoral calculus has them 4th in seats on those numbers.
I think we should consider the possibility that the Goodwin poll is more of a first-mover than an outlier and that Labour in the mid-30s and Reform in the mid-20s is real.
Tentatively agree. There is no such thing as a poll where you do not have to wait for the next ones to see if they may be right, until actual election day. This seems unlikely in the extreme, but in this particular election (does anyone still say it is dull?) I am capable of believing almost anything as long as there is a consistent pattern of evidence.
Question one: Does this polling outfit belong to the polling chaps union whatever it's called? and do they publish their data?
I think all the PBers claiming that this is a fraudulent poll are treading on very thin ice. OGH had a firm rule that you do NOT impugn pollsters without serious evidence, esp if they are members of the BPC (I presume they are?)
If instructed to do so via @rcs1000 or @TheScreamingEagles I will stop impugning the credibility of this farce, but until then I will follow the precedence of Trafalgar polls and take the piss instead.
Reform UK’s candidate in Barnsley South has denied co-founding a crypto firm branded a ‘ponzi scheme’ - despite video showing he described himself as the firm’s UK head.
Reform spokesman insists David White was just a “third party supplier” to Buddy Ex.
Asked why, then, he described himself onstage at a Thai conference for the firm’s top salespeople as “Head of Business UK and EU”, Reform implied he’d been asked to and did so out of politeness.
In his speech, Mr White says people had been asking him whether the firm was a “scam.”
Gesturing around to the glittering backdrop at the “Achievers Conclave 2023” in September, Mr White said: “Does this look like a scam?”
What is it with crypto that seems directly to link it to antivax, pro-Russia and all the other conspiracy shit? Is the idea that crypto circumvents the establishment and the WEF?
Which is funny, because last time I was at the WEF, I went to a (rather bullish) talk on the future of crypto. This was about 12 years ago mind.
I thought you had to be a lizard person to attend. Wait, are you….?
At the time, anyone could pay to attend the WEF, and I assume that remains the case.
I used to organize a few meetings for our investors around it. But it was fundamentally both expensive and boring. The second time I went, I spent the days skiing and enjoyed it a lot more.
Where do the lizard people and illuminati plot then? They must have come up with the Bill Gates vaccine chips somewhere.
Does he release his figures and methodology. He's part of the BPC right? The trouble is that his whole focus now seems to be on boosting Reform whilst trying to be an independent pollster.
You cannot be a member of the BPC and simply make up numbers or use leading questions
No doubt this is a massive outlier, and way out of kilter with the rest of the polls, but that does NOT mean it is wrong. We just don't know
I’m surprised more hasn’t been made of the Farage interview with Sam Coates of Sky News.
Farage refusing to rule out switching to the Tories if he wins in Clacton .
It's the obvious move, I don't think it's a surprise
I agree but the media should be all over this . It’s quite insulting to Reform voters .
I don't think it is. I imagine most Reform voters would quite like to vote Tory, they just think he Tories have drifted way way way to the left - tax, migration, wokeness - and they are correct
It's not often I agree with you and I don't on this.
Farage is an unreconstructed Thatcherite - we know he liked aspects of the Truss mini budget and is very keen on tax cuts and spending cuts.
That's not, I think, where the Reform voter base is - the immigration stuff they can agree with him but on tax and spending they want more public spending in WWC areas and were keen on the Johnsonian levelling up agenda, HS2 and other projects to bring wealth and jobs to parts of the North and Midlands.
Sunak's reversal of HS2 and the Levelling Up agenda has done for the Conservatives in the North and Midlands - Labour simply neglected the North, the Conservatives betrayed the North by reneging on the promises of the 2016 Referendum and 2019 election. This is one of the reasons Reform is doing so well in these areas.
This is spot on: the Conservative reneging on their promises to the North and to the left behind feels very much like betrayal. And you know what they say about "a woman scorned".
The issue is - though - that without this group, the Conservatives have no chance of government. And without the traditional shire Tories, nor does Reform. They need to find common ground, and that's something that I just don't see at the moment.
For all the shifts in our political scene in recent years, it's notable that no-one has attempted to replicate the Boris retail offer.
Levelling up, boosterism, an optimistic take on greenery, being intensely relaxed about people's private lives, "build back better".
None of the plausible Tory leadership candidates offer anything like it (Shapps, I guess, might be the closest - but he's still miles away), Starmer is a million miles away, and it's almost the opposite of the Refuk platform.
And yet Boris was very successful - his eventual failure had nothing to do with his politics, and was instead down to his own personal failings.
Is there anyone on the political scene who could attempt to fill the gap?
Nigel Farage is basically Oswald Mosley. Disillusioned with mainstream politics, turned to fascism, became an MP.
...
No, Mosley was (in his early version) serious committed to *some kind* of real reform (ha) of the system.
He crossed the floor to Labour over Ireland, and proposed a wholesale rebuild of the economy, based on socialist principles.
That’s far more commitment and thinking than Farage has ever done.
Farage is an effective motormouth - with some stale, pub boor ideas.
No Farage = No Brexit
He’s already transformed our politics far more than “Oswald Mosley” - who really WAS far right and really WAS a Fascist
Just catching up with PB after a day in the East Midlands. I preferred it when you posted pictures of your breakfast all day. Your output today has been wall-to -wall nonsensical right wing drivel.
No Farage= No Brexit seems of itself reason enough for no Farage.
I think all the PBers claiming that this is a fraudulent poll are treading on very thin ice. OGH had a firm rule that you do NOT impugn pollsters without serious evidence, esp if they are members of the BPC (I presume they are?)
Electoral calculus has them 4th in seats on those numbers.
I think we should consider the possibility that the Goodwin poll is more of a first-mover than an outlier and that Labour in the mid-30s and Reform in the mid-20s is real.
Tentatively agree. There is no such thing as a poll where you do not have to wait for the next ones to see if they may be right, until actual election day. This seems unlikely in the extreme, but in this particular election (does anyone still say it is dull?) I am capable of believing almost anything as long as there is a consistent pattern of evidence.
Question one: Does this polling outfit belong to the polling chaps union whatever it's called? and do they publish their data?
Yes, they are members of the BPC and they "abide by its rules". See the last line here
I think all the PBers claiming that this is a fraudulent poll are treading on very thin ice. OGH had a firm rule that you do NOT impugn pollsters without serious evidence, esp if they are members of the BPC (I presume they are?)
Unlike most of the other pollsters People Polling are untested at a general election.
They have also had to revise some of their previous polls because they cocked up their data tables/spreadsheets.
The other issue is People Polling's supplementaries have been openly discussed by other pollsters and polling experts as being so one sided as to be utterly irrelevant.
If Ashcroft started doing constituency polls again, who on PB would say, "oh, let's be very po-faced and serious in insisting on the accuracy of this historically testable poll series". Especially among the ones who usually rely on flippant humour as a shield to say how much they love neo-Nazis like Combat 18.
Well. I hope at least that the fear of Farage making gains will boost turnout. Even if it seems that the Tory defeat is inevitable there is still a lot at stake.
IF (big IF) Reform got into the 20s then (and I think this is also true of the LibDems) I suspect the seat modellers would break. They’d both have to gaining new voters in unpredictable ways you can’t easily just scale up from past examples.
Likewise, I wonder whether a Tory or Labour vote plumbing the depths becomes really hard to model because the hold outs might get quite concentrated.
So broadly speaking he's picking up on a big move away from both the Tories and Labour with Reform and the Lib Dems as the beneficiaries. That doesn't seem implausible to me. The only question is how big the effect is.
Does he release his figures and methodology. He's part of the BPC right? The trouble is that his whole focus now seems to be on boosting Reform whilst trying to be an independent pollster.
You cannot be a member of the BPC and simply make up numbers or use leading questions
No doubt this is a massive outlier, and way out of kilter with the rest of the polls, but that does NOT mean it is wrong. We just don't know
It's certainly interesting and my god if he is close to right..........
But if the polling companies release their methodologies surely everyone can argue over it. What is he doing differently. Prompting for Reform?
I’m surprised more hasn’t been made of the Farage interview with Sam Coates of Sky News.
Farage refusing to rule out switching to the Tories if he wins in Clacton .
It's the obvious move, I don't think it's a surprise
I agree but the media should be all over this . It’s quite insulting to Reform voters .
I don't think it is. I imagine most Reform voters would quite like to vote Tory, they just think he Tories have drifted way way way to the left - tax, migration, wokeness - and they are correct
It's not often I agree with you and I don't on this.
Farage is an unreconstructed Thatcherite - we know he liked aspects of the Truss mini budget and is very keen on tax cuts and spending cuts.
That's not, I think, where the Reform voter base is - the immigration stuff they can agree with him but on tax and spending they want more public spending in WWC areas and were keen on the Johnsonian levelling up agenda, HS2 and other projects to bring wealth and jobs to parts of the North and Midlands.
Sunak's reversal of HS2 and the Levelling Up agenda has done for the Conservatives in the North and Midlands - Labour simply neglected the North, the Conservatives betrayed the North by reneging on the promises of the 2016 Referendum and 2019 election. This is one of the reasons Reform is doing so well in these areas.
This is spot on: the Conservative reneging on their promises to the North and to the left behind feels very much like betrayal. And you know what they say about "a woman scorned".
The issue is - though - that without this group, the Conservatives have no chance of government. And without the traditional shire Tories, nor does Reform. They need to find common ground, and that's something that I just don't see at the moment.
For all the shifts in our political scene in recent years, it's notable that no-one has attempted to replicate the Boris retail offer.
Levelling up, boosterism, an optimistic take on greenery, being intensely relaxed about people's private lives, "build back better".
None of the plausible Tory leadership candidates offer anything like it (Shapps, I guess, might be the closest - but he's still miles away), Starmer is a million miles away, and it's almost the opposite of the Refuk platform.
And yet Boris was very successful - his eventual failure had nothing to do with his politics, and was instead down to his own personal failings.
Is there anyone on the political scene who could attempt to fill the gap?
(Step forward, Angela Rayner...?)
If Boris's agenda had been delivering, instead of causing lost by-elections in landslides, who knows whether or not he would have fallen? Likely it was all a delusion. In a free country, you can't restructure the economy to produce free social care, or force people to live and work in places they don't want to. Maybe in Cuba.
I think all the PBers claiming that this is a fraudulent poll are treading on very thin ice. OGH had a firm rule that you do NOT impugn pollsters without serious evidence, esp if they are members of the BPC (I presume they are?)
Unlike most of the other pollsters People Polling are untested at a general election.
They have also had to revise some of their previous polls because they cocked up their data tables/spreadsheets.
The other issue is People Polling's supplementaries have been openly discussed by other pollsters and polling experts as being so one sided as to be utterly irrelevant.
Then how come they are memnbers of the BPC? Surely they should be expelled?
Serious question. Because a fraudulent poll if exploded at the right time could actually change the direction of the elevtion, eg a poll which showed Reform easily and dramatically overtaking the Tories
Which this does
IF this is shown to be fraudulent then the coppers need to feel collars, this is serious shit
A single released in 1997 by Shania Twain is more relevant.
Are you claiming that People Polling are lying fraudsters, producing bogus figures?
I think they've started with a conclusion they want and worked backwards to find a method to get it.
As untested and as much credibility as Trafalgar which was rightly and roundly mocked whenever its polls were quoted here.
They are members of the BPC
I'm with you on this one Leon, they are members and will have to have a link to their tables within 2 working days so that we can all review it. Once the tables are published any criticism we might have will have a basis that's more grounded than "It doesn't smell right."
I'm probably going to vote for Reform. Possible I might vote Labour to ensure the wet who is standing for Mid Beds is defeated.
But probably I will vote Reform to kick them all in the nuts. The pompous prattle here that farage is Mosley/Hitler/Sundry Fascist is making my mind up.
Centrist liberals disagreeing with non centrist liberal views is one thing. Centrist liberals considering non centrist liberal views as beneath contempt and ideally disbarred is another matter entirely.
I hope they do well enough to destroy the Conservative Party and take over what remains, turning it into a less economically right wing and more socially right wing party. Along the lines of places like South Korea, and (modern) Japan. Not Nazi Germany.
Less economically right wing = a bit of bullshit about socialism to please the plebs. More socially right wing = a bit nationalist culturally to reassure the middle classes.
A potent brew. Social nationalism sounds clumsy. But national socialism does have a certain ring to it.
All we need is a shameless bullshitter to sell it, peddling nativist nonsense to please the bigots.
If Goodwin is correct, we will be hearing panicked reports from both Labour and Con canvassers about their vote collapsing and Reform making huge progress. We have had no such reports as yet.
I think all the PBers claiming that this is a fraudulent poll are treading on very thin ice. OGH had a firm rule that you do NOT impugn pollsters without serious evidence, esp if they are members of the BPC (I presume they are?)
Unlike most of the other pollsters People Polling are untested at a general election.
They have also had to revise some of their previous polls because they cocked up their data tables/spreadsheets.
The other issue is People Polling's supplementaries have been openly discussed by other pollsters and polling experts as being so one sided as to be utterly irrelevant.
Then how come they are memnbers of the BPC? Surely they should be expelled?
Serious question. Because a fraudulent poll if exploded at the right time could actually change the direction of the elevtion, eg a poll which showed Reform easily and dramatically overtaking the Tories
Which this does
IF this is shown to be fraudulent then the coppers need to feel collars, this is serious shit
I think all the PBers claiming that this is a fraudulent poll are treading on very thin ice. OGH had a firm rule that you do NOT impugn pollsters without serious evidence, esp if they are members of the BPC (I presume they are?)
They don’t like what the poll says. That’s it. It can’t be real so it must be another reason.
It’s probably an outlier. But as @williamglenn said it may be leading edge. Whether people like it or not the comeback of Farage has been a huge game changer.
2 weeks to go and the polls are shifting, they’re not static. And the shift is towards Reform and Tory ELE. It’s going to be the craziest election for a century.
So people need to look past what they want and at what they can see. And what I can see is reform pulling votes from everywhere
A single released in 1997 by Shania Twain is more relevant.
Are you claiming that People Polling are lying fraudsters, producing bogus figures?
I think they've started with a conclusion they want and worked backwards to find a method to get it.
As untested and as much credibility as Trafalgar which was rightly and roundly mocked whenever its polls were quoted here.
They are members of the BPC
I'm with you on this one Leon, they are members and will have to have a link to their tables within 2 working days so that we can all review it. Once the tables are published any criticism we might have will have a basis that's more grounded than "It doesn't smell right."
Quite so
I'd love this poll to be true because it is so hilarious and it will scare the shit out of Labour AND the Tories
However to me it screams "outlier"
That does NOT mean it is fake or hoaxed or bogus, we need the deets, as you say
The house in the background on the right, behind the vans, is where the Lib Dem candidate, David Kinnaird, lives
I had a nice chat with him today. He's just finished a ten day cycle ride around the constituency, visiting as many towns and villages, and talking to as many people, as he could
I saw a good friend of mine on Monday, who I've known for over thirty years. In all that time we've never really talked politics. He brought up to me, completely unprompted, that he'd met "Dave the LibDem chap" at his local pub at the weekend, was really impressed by him, and was now considering voting for the first time in about twenty years
"Dave the LibDem chap" seemed quite pleased to hear this feedback, and to hear that I've been talking him up whenever the opportunity arises (which it has, and I have been)
I also saw his wife and daughter out leafletting later on my route. Loyal Lib Dems that that they are, they weren't even leafletting for Dave, but for their Town Council candidate (the election is the same day as the GE)
Team Dave could do this.. I still don't think it's likely, but it's got to be more likely than the 100/1 shot I think it is with the bookies
I'm probably going to vote for Reform. Possible I might vote Labour to ensure the wet who is standing for Mid Beds is defeated.
But probably I will vote Reform to kick them all in the nuts. The pompous prattle here that farage is Mosley/Hitler/Sundry Fascist is making my mind up.
Centrist liberals disagreeing with non centrist liberal views is one thing. Centrist liberals considering non centrist liberal views as beneath contempt and ideally disbarred is another matter entirely.
I hope they do well enough to destroy the Conservative Party and take over what remains, turning it into a less economically right wing and more socially right wing party. Along the lines of places like South Korea, and (modern) Japan. Not Nazi Germany.
Good luck. I don't think Farage is a fascist, though I think some fascists will vote for him. He is horrible but not horrible enough to be a fascist. He is only very doubtfully a 'liberal'. His defence of Trump in deeply illiberal matters is enough to cause real doubt. His manifesto nods very clearly to QAnon style conspiracy theorists, and the ones I know believe he is their man. A person is judged in part by the company he keeps.
BTW the number of people who want the UK to be a Japan/S Korea style society is small.
I've had a couple of private messages in the last 24 hours from right-wing friends, driven by the close to 1,000 crossings yesterday, half-seriously asking if we now need to "sink a few boats" to stop it.
Meanwhile legal immigration is several orders of magnitude greater than the rounding error that is small boats. Even as a proportion of asylum claims small boats is a small minority.
Good evening
It is simply against Maritime law to arbitrarily sink boats and the outcry would be deafening
No one told the Greek Coastguard
Are you trying to justify a rogue coastguard ignoring Mariime law and anyway the coastguard will have the law to deal with
It is a shocking development that anyone could even think of sinking boats with migrants, and who has to deal with the consequences of rescuing those in peril but the crews of the RNLI and border force boats risking their own lives
Shocking to those of us leading comfortable lives in agreeable houses.
Not so much to those who havent seen a decent pay rise in years due to immigrant competition for low/unskilled Labour, whos rent is going up for a poor quality s***hole due to competition from migrants chasing the same housing stock, and pull their rotten teeth out with pliers as they cannot get a dentist. Then see on the news that illegal enterers are collected and put up in hotels with free food.
And there are rather a lot of the latter.
As I have said, unless decent leaders on occasion do indecent things on occasion for the greater good (like Churchill sinking the French fleet in Mers-El-Kebir killing thousands of French Sailors), they are replaced by indecent leaders who will do very indecent things.
The decent leader doing indecent thing in this occasion would be deporting all males of military age entering the country Illegally on such boats to Kigali in short order without appeal.
The indecent leader doing a very indecent thing would use the Navy to sink a boat pour les encouragement les autres.
Several of us have speculated that Tory/Reform polling might reach a tipping point where voting Tory is seen as a waste of time and Reform as the tactical vote to stop Labour. Is it really a surprise that it might happen? And Reform have just had a lot of coverage of their manifesto, which will have been attractive to the credulous and disgruntled. Is it really a surprise that someone promising lots of free giveaways will win support?
It might prove to be a bubble, but I think it's completely unwarranted for people to suggest that this poll result is fabricated, without a scintilla of evidence.
The Tories are almost completely unwilling to criticise Farage. Many of them wish they had had the foresight or courage to have defected to him earlier, when they had the chance. Is it a surprise that Reform should do well in the polls when they receive a free pass from much of one of the parties that should be opposing them?
Electoral Calculus has Ref on 51 seats, Con on 45 seats and Lib on 64 seats.
This is the sort of result where you could see a Con-Ref merger taking place just after the election so the Right can hold on to official Opposition status... and Farage becoming LOTO...
I've had a couple of private messages in the last 24 hours from right-wing friends, driven by the close to 1,000 crossings yesterday, half-seriously asking if we now need to "sink a few boats" to stop it.
Meanwhile legal immigration is several orders of magnitude greater than the rounding error that is small boats. Even as a proportion of asylum claims small boats is a small minority.
You really don't get it, do you?
Oh I do get it. Small boat arrivals are much more visible than legal migration. Media coverage regularly conflates the two. And people don’t like the idea of our borders being out of control.
But the fact remains that net migration is at record smashing levels, all since Brexit, and hardly any of that is illegal boat crossings. Sunak expends about 95% of the airtime on 5% of the actual net migration numbers.
Small boats is a policing and processing challenge. Legal migration is an economic and social challenge.
The house in the background on the right, behind the vans, is where the Lib Dem candidate, David Kinnaird, lives
I had a nice chat with him today. He's just finished a ten day cycle ride around the constituency, visiting as many towns and villages, and talking to as many people, as he could
I saw a good friend of mine on Monday, who I've known for over thirty years. In all that time we've never really talked politics. He brought up to me, completely unprompted, that he'd met "Dave the LibDem chap" at his local pub at the weekend, was really impressed by him, and was now considering voting for the first time in about twenty years
"Dave the LibDem chap" seemed quite pleased to hear this feedback, and to hear that I've been talking him up whenever the opportunity arises (which it has, and I have been)
I also saw his wife and daughter out leafletting later on my route. Loyal Lib Dems that that they are, they weren't even leafletting for Dave, but for their Town Council candidate (the election is the same day as the GE)
Team Dave could do this.. I still don't think it's likely, but it's got to be more likely than the 100/1 shot I think it is with the bookies
Thanks for your constituency report.
Have said it before, will say it again - you yourself (and you) would make a hell of a candidate, at least on the ground.
Several of us have speculated that Tory/Reform polling might reach a tipping point where voting Tory is seen as a waste of time and Reform as the tactical vote to stop Labour. Is it really a surprise that it might happen? And Reform have just had a lot of coverage of their manifesto, which will have been attractive to the credulous and disgruntled. Is it really a surprise that someone promising lots of free giveaways will win support?
It might prove to be a bubble, but I think it's completely unwarranted for people to suggest that this poll result is fabricated, without a scintilla of evidence.
The Tories are almost completely unwilling to criticise Farage. Many of them wish they had had the foresight or courage to have defected to him earlier, when they had the chance. Is it a surprise that Reform should do well in the polls when they receive a free pass from much of one of the parties that should be opposing them?
Good point. Is this a Manifesto effect?
On my fam Whatsapp a member of my fam who is centrist Tory (voted Blair at his peak) said this
"I am afraid to admit I agree with almost everything in the Reform manifesto"
Matt Goodwin has adjusted his methodology. His poll now asks:
Who do you intend to vote for in the GE: - the knee-taking crpyto-communist SKS Labour Party? - the utterly useless immigration off-the-scales no boats stopped Sunak Tory Party? - the wishy-washy fucking useless Davey Lib Dem Party? - the charismatic all-our-problems-solved brilliant isn't Farage gorgeous Reform Party?
If Goodwin is correct, we will be hearing panicked reports from both Labour and Con canvassers about their vote collapsing and Reform making huge progress. We have had no such reports as yet.
also something even vaguely close in other polls...
I've had a couple of private messages in the last 24 hours from right-wing friends, driven by the close to 1,000 crossings yesterday, half-seriously asking if we now need to "sink a few boats" to stop it.
Meanwhile legal immigration is several orders of magnitude greater than the rounding error that is small boats. Even as a proportion of asylum claims small boats is a small minority.
Good evening
It is simply against Maritime law to arbitrarily sink boats and the outcry would be deafening
No one told the Greek Coastguard
Are you trying to justify a rogue coastguard ignoring Mariime law and anyway the coastguard will have the law to deal with
It is a shocking development that anyone could even think of sinking boats with migrants, and who has to deal with the consequences of rescuing those in peril but the crews of the RNLI and border force boats risking their own lives
Shocking to those of us leading comfortable lives in agreeable houses.
Not so much to those who havent seen a decent pay rise in years due to immigrant competition for low/unskilled Labour, whos rent is going up for a poor quality s***hole due to competition from migrants chasing the same housing stock, and pull their rotten teeth out with pliers as they cannot get a dentist. Then see on the news that illegal enterers are collected and put up in hotels with free food.
And there are rather a lot of the latter.
As I have said, unless decent leaders on occasion do indecent things on occasion for the greater good (like Churchill sinking the French fleet in Mers-El-Kebir killing thousands of French Sailors), they are replaced by indecent leaders who will do very indecent things.
The decent leader doing indecent thing in this occasion would be deporting all males of military age entering the country Illegally on such boats to Kigali in short order without appeal.
The indecent leader doing a very indecent thing would use the Navy to sink a boat pour les encouragement les autres.
It's called blackmail to threaten killings if you don't get your way.
I think all the PBers claiming that this is a fraudulent poll are treading on very thin ice. OGH had a firm rule that you do NOT impugn pollsters without serious evidence, esp if they are members of the BPC (I presume they are?)
Unlike most of the other pollsters People Polling are untested at a general election.
They have also had to revise some of their previous polls because they cocked up their data tables/spreadsheets.
The other issue is People Polling's supplementaries have been openly discussed by other pollsters and polling experts as being so one sided as to be utterly irrelevant.
Then how come they are memnbers of the BPC? Surely they should be expelled?
Serious question. Because a fraudulent poll if exploded at the right time could actually change the direction of the elevtion, eg a poll which showed Reform easily and dramatically overtaking the Tories
Which this does
IF this is shown to be fraudulent then the coppers need to feel collars, this is serious shit
A reminder not so long ago People Polling post the wrong figures because they buggered up their spreadsheet.
It was the one where they screwed up their SNP/PC score and wrongly put the SNP on 0% instead of 4%.
I've checked the spreadsheet before commenting on the poll this time, and I couldn't see anything obviously weird about it. Reform support higher among men, leave voters C2s, in the Midlands, former Tory 2019 voters - all the same patterns we've seen before, just with higher numbers now.
If Goodwin is correct, we will be hearing panicked reports from both Labour and Con canvassers about their vote collapsing and Reform making huge progress. We have had no such reports as yet.
also something even vaguely close in other polls...
YouGov is not miles off People Polling. Take 3 points off Tories and add them to Ref and you get a similar result. That was June 13th, before Farage’s “launch”.
Several of us have speculated that Tory/Reform polling might reach a tipping point where voting Tory is seen as a waste of time and Reform as the tactical vote to stop Labour. Is it really a surprise that it might happen? And Reform have just had a lot of coverage of their manifesto, which will have been attractive to the credulous and disgruntled. Is it really a surprise that someone promising lots of free giveaways will win support?
It might prove to be a bubble, but I think it's completely unwarranted for people to suggest that this poll result is fabricated, without a scintilla of evidence.
The Tories are almost completely unwilling to criticise Farage. Many of them wish they had had the foresight or courage to have defected to him earlier, when they had the chance. Is it a surprise that Reform should do well in the polls when they receive a free pass from much of one of the parties that should be opposing them?
You want a scintilla of evidence? I found three things, so will use my picture of the day to highlight all 3 of them.
I've had a couple of private messages in the last 24 hours from right-wing friends, driven by the close to 1,000 crossings yesterday, half-seriously asking if we now need to "sink a few boats" to stop it.
Meanwhile legal immigration is several orders of magnitude greater than the rounding error that is small boats. Even as a proportion of asylum claims small boats is a small minority.
Good evening
It is simply against Maritime law to arbitrarily sink boats and the outcry would be deafening
No one told the Greek Coastguard
Are you trying to justify a rogue coastguard ignoring Mariime law and anyway the coastguard will have the law to deal with
It is a shocking development that anyone could even think of sinking boats with migrants, and who has to deal with the consequences of rescuing those in peril but the crews of the RNLI and border force boats risking their own lives
Shocking to those of us leading comfortable lives in agreeable houses.
Not so much to those who havent seen a decent pay rise in years due to immigrant competition for low/unskilled Labour, whos rent is going up for a poor quality s***hole due to competition from migrants chasing the same housing stock, and pull their rotten teeth out with pliers as they cannot get a dentist. Then see on the news that illegal enterers are collected and put up in hotels with free food.
And there are rather a lot of the latter.
As I have said, unless decent leaders on occasion do indecent things on occasion for the greater good (like Churchill sinking the French fleet in Mers-El-Kebir killing thousands of French Sailors), they are replaced by indecent leaders who will do very indecent things.
The decent leader doing indecent thing in this occasion would be deporting all males of military age entering the country Illegally on such boats to Kigali in short order without appeal.
The indecent leader doing a very indecent thing would use the Navy to sink a boat pour les encouragement les autres.
I never thought I would read on here such a shocking and unacceptable statement
It truely saddens me and maybe if you had witnessed a woman or a child drown in such circumstances as the rescuers have then you would discover your humanity
Going through that spreadsheet (for what it is) I find it very strange that only 33% of Reform voters voted for Brexit in 2016....
People Polling have either picked up a set of people who are missed by all other polls, discovered a trend before everyone else or have sampled a very strange set of people...
This doesn’t change the result - a Labour landslide. But what happens to politics after the election? I still expect that Reform will pick up very few seats because they will struggle to concentrate their vote. In which case the seat tally will be low and the demand for electoral reform will be loud.
But - and it’s a big but - what if the RefUK surge continues? Don’t shout at the pollster. It’s hardly an outlier in terms of the Farage effect, just the scale. But 2 weeks to go. What if they’re just early to see it…?
I've had a couple of private messages in the last 24 hours from right-wing friends, driven by the close to 1,000 crossings yesterday, half-seriously asking if we now need to "sink a few boats" to stop it.
Meanwhile legal immigration is several orders of magnitude greater than the rounding error that is small boats. Even as a proportion of asylum claims small boats is a small minority.
You really don't get it, do you?
Oh I do get it. Small boat arrivals are much more visible than legal migration. Media coverage regularly conflates the two. And people don’t like the idea of our borders being out of control.
But the fact remains that net migration is at record smashing levels, all since Brexit, and hardly any of that is illegal boat crossings. Sunak expends about 95% of the airtime on 5% of the actual net migration numbers.
Small boats is a policing and processing challenge. Legal migration is an economic and social challenge.
The 95% percent have joined the queue and been let in when they got to the end of it.
The 5% have jumped the queue. People get far more angry about those who jump the queue than about there being a queue,.
Plus the 5% have no screening for criminal records etc which frightens people.
Unless he can prove illegal shenanigans by PP (and perhaps he can?) then that is close to libellous
Calm down, anybody would think that you shared Nigel Farage´s probably unjustified, concern that polls are being manipulated...
If the result in 2 weeks is shall we say "at variance" with the findings of this poll, it will be interesting to establish why that might be.
It is one, fairly small, poll and looks to be very much an outlier, especially compared to the much much larger surveys published earlier.
We will see, but I do not think this reflects reality, either current or future. No one should be changing their positions on the basis of this, however warm and slippery it is making Leon feel.
Comments
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c51104g80zeo
A single released in 1997 by Shania Twain is more relevant.
My decision will be final and cannot be challenged.
1) Do you like More In Common's bespoke system of weighting? It certainly helps the Cons - that does not mean that it isn't right.
2) Do you think tactical voting is going to be an issue at this election and especially anti-Con tactical voting? Check some results and you will see that MIC and (to a degree) Ipsos are dubious about it.
3) Do you think Reform can turn those poll ratings into actual votes? Again MIC and (to a degree) Ipsos are the sceptics.
If I am putting my money down then I'm probably siding with the YouGov. It just has less 'eyebrow-raising' results than the others.
I think we should consider the possibility that the Goodwin poll is more of a first-mover than an outlier and that Labour in the mid-30s and Reform in the mid-20s is real.
If Conservatives can't understand that funding the courts and encouraging people to work is the conservative thing to do then it shows why they are about to be rightly hammered.
It was the one where they screwed up their SNP/PC score and wrongly put the SNP on 0% instead of 4%.
But probably I will vote Reform to kick them all in the nuts. The pompous prattle here that farage is Mosley/Hitler/Sundry Fascist is making my mind up.
Centrist liberals disagreeing with non centrist liberal views is one thing. Centrist liberals considering non centrist liberal views as beneath contempt and ideally disbarred is another matter entirely.
I hope they do well enough to destroy the Conservative Party and take over what remains, turning it into a less economically right wing and more socially right wing party. Along the lines of places like South Korea, and (modern) Japan. Not Nazi Germany.
Fancy a bet that these numbers are not repeated on any of the next three polls?
I wouldn’t be surprised to see Reform voters more likely to vote . Those poll numbers apparently still give Labour a huge majority of 250 .
You generally tend to avoid fieldwork of just one day which should be a caveat for this poll.
Labour tried to gag Black lawyer who wrote party’s own racism report
Exclusive: Martin Forde KC says people will see letter from party responding to his criticisms as a ‘collateral attack on a Black professional’
Labour attempted to gag a prominent Black barrister who authored a report that exposed a “hierarchy of racism” within the party, The Independent can reveal.
In a letter sent by lawyers representing Labour, Martin Forde KC was warned that he was “acting against the party’s interest” after he gave an interview highlighting Labour’s failures in relation to the report.
Keir Starmer has never engaged with me about the findings of the report he commissioned me to write says Forde
I think all the PBers claiming that this is a fraudulent poll are treading on very thin ice. OGH had a firm rule that you do NOT impugn pollsters without serious evidence, esp if they are members of the BPC (I presume they are?)
I doubt @rcs1000 and @TSE want a libel action
It is a shocking development that anyone could even think of sinking boats with migrants, and who has to deal with the consequences of rescuing those in peril but the crews of the RNLI and border force boats risking their own lives
Question one: Does this polling outfit belong to the polling chaps union whatever it's called? and do they publish their data?
No doubt this is a massive outlier, and way out of kilter with the rest of the polls, but that does NOT mean it is wrong. We just don't know
It is a very weird poll result, much as I would like to believe it
Levelling up, boosterism, an optimistic take on greenery, being intensely relaxed about people's private lives, "build back better".
None of the plausible Tory leadership candidates offer anything like it (Shapps, I guess, might be the closest - but he's still miles away), Starmer is a million miles away, and it's almost the opposite of the Refuk platform.
And yet Boris was very successful - his eventual failure had nothing to do with his politics, and was instead down to his own personal failings.
Is there anyone on the political scene who could attempt to fill the gap?
(Step forward, Angela Rayner...?)
No Farage= No Brexit seems of itself reason enough for no Farage.
As untested and as much credibility as Trafalgar which was rightly and roundly mocked whenever its polls were quoted here.
https://peoplepolling.org/tables/202211_GBN_W48_full.pdf
They have also had to revise some of their previous polls because they cocked up their data tables/spreadsheets.
The other issue is People Polling's supplementaries have been openly discussed by other pollsters and polling experts as being so one sided as to be utterly irrelevant.
Likewise, I wonder whether a Tory or Labour vote plumbing the depths becomes really hard to model because the hold outs might get quite concentrated.
Labour: 46%
Con: 20%
Reform: 14%
Lib Dem: 8%
Green: 8%
So broadly speaking he's picking up on a big move away from both the Tories and Labour with Reform and the Lib Dems as the beneficiaries. That doesn't seem implausible to me. The only question is how big the effect is.
But if the polling companies release their methodologies surely everyone can argue over it. What is he doing differently. Prompting for Reform?
TBF in 2015 everyone complained about herding.
https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1803492522116915232
Serious question. Because a fraudulent poll if exploded at the right time could actually change the direction of the elevtion, eg a poll which showed Reform easily and dramatically overtaking the Tories
Which this does
IF this is shown to be fraudulent then the coppers need to feel collars, this is serious shit
More socially right wing = a bit nationalist culturally to reassure the middle classes.
A potent brew. Social nationalism sounds clumsy. But national socialism does have a certain ring to it.
All we need is a shameless bullshitter to sell it, peddling nativist nonsense to please the bigots.
And bingo - Nationalsozialismus!
We have had no such reports as yet.
Amazing that the ‘pollster’ who has been touring around the country after Nigel Farage has managed to put the party within 10 points of Labour.
https://x.com/drjennings/status/1803499720805122146
Though I'm not sure who Switzerland would have to substitute for Edward.
It’s probably an outlier. But as @williamglenn said it may be leading edge. Whether people like it or not the comeback of Farage has been a huge game changer.
2 weeks to go and the polls are shifting, they’re not static. And the shift is towards Reform and Tory ELE. It’s going to be the craziest election for a
century.
So people need to look past what they want and at what they can see. And what I can see is reform pulling votes from everywhere
Matt Goodwin
@GoodwinMJ
·
44m
💥NEW💥BOMBSHELL poll
Labour 35%
Reform 24%
Conservatives 15%
Liberal Democrats 12%
Greens 8%
SNP 3%
PeoplePolling/GBN Jun 18th
I'd love this poll to be true because it is so hilarious and it will scare the shit out of Labour AND the Tories
However to me it screams "outlier"
That does NOT mean it is fake or hoaxed or bogus, we need the deets, as you say
The house in the background on the right, behind the vans, is where the Lib Dem candidate, David Kinnaird, lives
I had a nice chat with him today. He's just finished a ten day cycle ride around the constituency, visiting as many towns and villages, and talking to as many people, as he could
I saw a good friend of mine on Monday, who I've known for over thirty years. In all that time we've never really talked politics. He brought up to me, completely unprompted, that he'd met "Dave the LibDem chap" at his local pub at the weekend, was really impressed by him, and was now considering voting for the first time in about twenty years
"Dave the LibDem chap" seemed quite pleased to hear this feedback, and to hear that I've been talking him up whenever the opportunity arises (which it has, and I have been)
I also saw his wife and daughter out leafletting later on my route. Loyal Lib Dems that that they are, they weren't even leafletting for Dave, but for their Town Council candidate (the election is the same day as the GE)
Team Dave could do this.. I still don't think it's likely, but it's got to be more likely than the 100/1 shot I think it is with the bookies
BTW the number of people who want the UK to be a Japan/S Korea style society is small.
I think he needs to be getting that out there a bit more to keep Labour polling in the 40s.
Not so much to those who havent seen a decent pay rise in years due to immigrant competition for low/unskilled Labour, whos rent is going up for a poor quality s***hole due to competition from migrants chasing the same housing stock, and pull their rotten teeth out with pliers as they cannot get a dentist. Then see on the news that illegal enterers are collected and put up in hotels with free food.
And there are rather a lot of the latter.
As I have said, unless decent leaders on occasion do indecent things on occasion for the greater good (like Churchill sinking the French fleet in Mers-El-Kebir killing thousands of French Sailors), they are replaced by indecent leaders who will do very indecent things.
The decent leader doing indecent thing in this occasion would be deporting all males of military age entering the country Illegally on such boats to Kigali in short order without appeal.
The indecent leader doing a very indecent thing would use the Navy to sink a boat pour les encouragement les autres.
It might prove to be a bubble, but I think it's completely unwarranted for people to suggest that this poll result is fabricated, without a scintilla of evidence.
The Tories are almost completely unwilling to criticise Farage. Many of them wish they had had the foresight or courage to have defected to him earlier, when they had the chance. Is it a surprise that Reform should do well in the polls when they receive a free pass from much of one of the parties that should be opposing them?
This is the sort of result where you could see a Con-Ref merger taking place just after the election so the Right can hold on to official Opposition status... and Farage becoming LOTO...
OBNLY JOKING MATE, even on 15% I am sure the Tories will get at least 3 seats, maybe even 4
I do however expect to collect £50 from @TimS
But the fact remains that net migration is at record smashing levels, all since Brexit, and hardly any of that is illegal boat crossings. Sunak expends about 95% of the airtime on 5% of the actual net migration numbers.
Small boats is a policing and processing challenge. Legal migration is an economic and social challenge.
Have said it before, will say it again - you yourself (and you) would make a hell of a candidate, at least on the ground.
On my fam Whatsapp a member of my fam who is centrist Tory (voted Blair at his peak) said this
"I am afraid to admit I agree with almost everything in the Reform manifesto"
It surprised me at the time
Who do you intend to vote for in the GE:
- the knee-taking crpyto-communist SKS Labour Party?
- the utterly useless immigration off-the-scales no boats stopped Sunak Tory Party?
- the wishy-washy fucking useless Davey Lib Dem Party?
- the charismatic all-our-problems-solved brilliant isn't Farage gorgeous Reform Party?
It truely saddens me and maybe if you had witnessed a woman or a child drown in such circumstances as the rescuers have then you would discover your humanity
People Polling have either picked up a set of people who are missed by all other polls, discovered a trend before everyone else or have sampled a very strange set of people...
This doesn’t change the result - a Labour landslide. But what happens to politics after the election? I still expect that Reform will pick up very few seats because they will struggle to concentrate their vote. In which case the seat tally will be low and the demand for electoral reform will be loud.
But - and it’s a big but - what if the RefUK surge continues? Don’t shout at the pollster. It’s hardly an outlier in terms of the Farage effect, just the scale. But 2 weeks to go. What if they’re just early to see it…?
Switzerland fans please explain
The 5% have jumped the queue. People get far more angry about those who jump the queue than about there being a queue,.
Plus the 5% have no screening for criminal records etc which frightens people.
If the result in 2 weeks is shall we say "at variance" with the findings of this poll, it will be interesting to establish why that might be.
It is one, fairly small, poll and looks to be very much an outlier, especially compared to the much much larger surveys published earlier.
We will see, but I do not think this reflects reality, either current or future. No one should be changing their positions on the basis of this, however warm and slippery it is making Leon feel.