Savanta: Labour 516 Tories 53 Lib Dems 50 SNP 8 Plaid 4 Reform 0
And yet in another sense pretty consistent in the most important respect.
I do think Reform will win a couple of seats this time, but they could fall into the UKIP trap of mass support to get lots of votes but not clustering enough to win any.
The SNP seem all over the place though.
Between these two MRPs Labour seats vary by 21%; Con by 103% LD by 33% SNP by 250% RefUK by #DIV/0! % (and as we all know #DIV/0! is a big number)
A useful comparison.
I still think the Tories will be at the 100-120 range, but I do think Sunak will lose his seat - Reform and even average Tories want the party out, and they hate him.
Not a great fan of hate but it's partly about being seen as a loser rather than a winner. Personally I have no time whatsoever for people who like Johnson and despise Sunak.
I’m surprised more hasn’t been made of the Farage interview with Sam Coates of Sky News.
Farage refusing to rule out switching to the Tories if he wins in Clacton .
It's the obvious move, I don't think it's a surprise
I agree but the media should be all over this . It’s quite insulting to Reform voters .
I don't think it is. I imagine most Reform voters would quite like to vote Tory, they just think he Tories have drifted way way way to the left - tax, migration, wokeness - and they are correct
I see the YouGov MRP for London has Labour on 63 and the LDs and Conservatives on six seats each.
Those who recall the wonderful "London Falling" thread from a couple of weeks ago will recall I predicted 9 seats for the Conservatives - that was around the second May Bank Holiday so before the return of Farage and Sunak's horrendous D-Day gaffe.
The YouGov MRP agrees with five of my nine Conservative "holds" (including Bromley & Biggin Hill which I advised the Conservatives at 11/8).
YouGov has the Conservatives holding Finchley & Golders Green which I presume is down to local factors. Bet365 has the Conservatives at 12/5 to win the seat so that looks incredibly good value.
Of the other Conservative "holds" I predicted, YouGov has Labour winning Harrow East 41-40 so I'm still happy with my 9/4 and topped up at 5/2.
Croydon East is 47-21 to Labour so I think my full English is cooked there.
Croydon South is 39-37 to Labour so I still have hope.
Old Bexley & Sidcup is 35-33 to Labour according to the YouGov MRP - if you think that's right, Labour at 2s with Bet 365 looks a nice play.
Elsewhere, Ruislip, Northwood & Pinner is 35-34 to the Conservatives and I'm on at 4/5 (now 4/6) so we'll see.
Romford is 35-33 to the Conservatives and I'm sitting on a 6/4 bet on the Tories
Sutton & Cheam, where I advised an 11/10 bet on the LDs (now 4/9) is 39-30 to the LDs so cautiously optimistic.
I think one of my seven bets is cooked but the other six remain very much in play.
What are the chances of Farage doing a reverse takeover of the Tories?
It looks like he will probably win Clacton, so he will be in the Common, likely with a couple of Reform colleagues
How low do the Tories have to go to be mentally susceptible to Farage as leader?
I reckon if they are sub 100 seats and if Sunak loses his seat, and if Reform are within five points of the Tory vote percentage. That's the point at which the Tories will be in psychological meltdown, facing oblivion, and may turn to Farage in desperation
Am I wrong?
For once one of your mad fantasies seems plausible. I don't even think some of your prerequisite are necessary either. All that is necessary is for Farage to get elected and the Tories hammered and a sequence of events can then possibly start that leads to your conclusion.
What are the chances of Farage doing a reverse takeover of the Tories?
It looks like he will probably win Clacton, so he will be in the Common, likely with a couple of Reform colleagues
How low do the Tories have to go to be mentally susceptible to Farage as leader?
I reckon if they are sub 100 seats and if Sunak loses his seat, and if Reform are within five points of the Tory vote percentage. That's the point at which the Tories will be in psychological meltdown, facing oblivion, and may turn to Farage in desperation
Am I wrong?
Yes.
I mean, if the Conservative Party loses the mantle of Official Opposition, it's possible.
But otherwise I think it's difficult because
(a) Badenoch / Patel / Braverman and other senior Conservatives want their shot at becoming LOO. Why would they give it up?
and
(b) if you are in a Conservative seat in the South East, and the LibDems are second... do you really want Nigel Farage as party leader? The MPs who would benefit the most (and who would be most keen) are the ones in Red Wall constituencies... and are therefore no longer MPs.
Savanta: Labour 516 Tories 53 Lib Dems 50 SNP 8 Plaid 4 Reform 0
And yet in another sense pretty consistent in the most important respect.
I do think Reform will win a couple of seats this time, but they could fall into the UKIP trap of mass support to get lots of votes but not clustering enough to win any.
The SNP seem all over the place though.
Between these two MRPs Labour seats vary by 21%; Con by 103% LD by 33% SNP by 250% RefUK by #DIV/0! % (and as we all know #DIV/0! is a big number)
A useful comparison.
I still think the Tories will be at the 100-120 range, but I do think Sunak will lose his seat - Reform and even average Tories want the party out, and they hate him.
Not a great fan of hate but it's partly about being seen as a loser rather than a winner. Personally I have no time whatsoever for people who like Johnson and despise Sunak.
Yeah hate is a nasty and corrosive emotion, and should be used for proper evildoing
Sunak's protection officer investigated for alleged election date bets
A police officer working as part of the prime minister's close protection team has been suspended and later arrested over alleged bets about the timing of the general election, the BBC can reveal.
The Metropolitan Police were contacted by the Gambling Commission last Friday, who informed the force that they were investigating alleged bets made by a police constable from its Royalty and Specialist Protection Command.
The Met has told the BBC that "the matter was immediately referred to officers in the Met's Directorate of Professional Standards, who opened an investigation, and the officer was also removed from operational duties".
The officer was then arrested on Monday on suspicion of misconduct in public office. He was taken into custody and bailed pending further enquiries.
The matter has also been referred to the Independent Office for Police Conduct.
The Met said the Gambling Commission continues to lead the investigation into the alleged betting offences, "and our investigation is running in parallel to that".
Personally, I don't see the *criminal* offence here: insider betting is not illegal.
Misconduct in public office is a nebulous common law offence, they wanted to charge the Stephen Lawrence officers with it for, effectively, just being shit at their jobs. This guy's misfortune is being a cop. An MP is precisely not in public office (that is why the Chiltern Hundreds) so the other guy who did it is fine.
`There is nothing nebulous about using information gained whilst on duty for personal gain. This police officer is in serious trouble.
Keir Starmer has changed Labour, he says, but has the leader gone too far? Albert Toth speaks to Jeremy Corbyn, Green co-leader Carla Denyer and more about the ballot box rebellion the party could face on July 4
I'm sure Starmer will be devastated to be told he has destroyed party unity by culling the left wing, and thus will not get the support of people leaving comments in support of a former Labour member, a Green party leader, and others, even as he gallops towards a massive majority.
And, given his external opponents fear he will be very left wing indeed, really they should be pretty content.
What will be hilarious is if he manages it on less votes than Corbyn.
Badenoch does seem to enjoy support from a few of the higher minded types on the right like Simon Heffer and Melanie Phillips. I imagine Leon would like Giles Coren's verdict on Braverman/Patel as a bit mediocre.
I spoke to a (Green) friend on Monday and we ended up discussing politics. He was really looking forward to seeing the Tories botted out and was totally unconcerned by right wing populism and saw no reason not to be contemptuous of them because:
a) The clear majority of people support progressive parties b) Tory/Right wing voters are old and dying c) You can't control migration anyway so it's all a waste of time
I tried to dissuade him from this optimistic view and urged more scepticism but he wasn't having it.
Living in a bubble would be a good description for this person. Younger working-class people outside big cities are probably more concerned about immigration than older people living in urban areas, for example.
Shudder to think what positives "Mad Mel" has identified in Badenoch's views
Sunak's protection officer investigated for alleged election date bets
A police officer working as part of the prime minister's close protection team has been suspended and later arrested over alleged bets about the timing of the general election, the BBC can reveal.
The Metropolitan Police were contacted by the Gambling Commission last Friday, who informed the force that they were investigating alleged bets made by a police constable from its Royalty and Specialist Protection Command.
The Met has told the BBC that "the matter was immediately referred to officers in the Met's Directorate of Professional Standards, who opened an investigation, and the officer was also removed from operational duties".
The officer was then arrested on Monday on suspicion of misconduct in public office. He was taken into custody and bailed pending further enquiries.
The matter has also been referred to the Independent Office for Police Conduct.
The Met said the Gambling Commission continues to lead the investigation into the alleged betting offences, "and our investigation is running in parallel to that".
My daughter, aged 32, just now: "Dad, do you think Labour's got any chance of winning this time?" I was able to reassure her. She's actually quite a political animal, but it just goes to show that most people are blissfully unaware of polling.
What are the chances of Farage doing a reverse takeover of the Tories?
It looks like he will probably win Clacton, so he will be in the Common, likely with a couple of Reform colleagues
How low do the Tories have to go to be mentally susceptible to Farage as leader?
I reckon if they are sub 100 seats and if Sunak loses his seat, and if Reform are within five points of the Tory vote percentage. That's the point at which the Tories will be in psychological meltdown, facing oblivion, and may turn to Farage in desperation
Am I wrong?
Yes.
I mean, if the Conservative Party loses the mantle of Official Opposition, it's possible.
But otherwise I think it's difficult because
(a) Badenoch / Patel / Braverman and other senior Conservatives want their shot at becoming LOO. Why would they give it up?
and
(b) if you are in a Conservative seat in the South East, and the LibDems are second... do you really want Nigel Farage as party leader? The MPs who would benefit the most (and who would be most keen) are the ones in Red Wall constituencies... and are therefore no longer MPs.
True
But I'm positing a Tory party in a blind panic, down to say 68 seats and with most big beasts slain in the arena
In that state they might do anything and Farage might seem like a "saviour"
I’m surprised more hasn’t been made of the Farage interview with Sam Coates of Sky News.
Farage refusing to rule out switching to the Tories if he wins in Clacton .
It's the obvious move, I don't think it's a surprise
I agree but the media should be all over this . It’s quite insulting to Reform voters .
I don't think it is. I imagine most Reform voters would quite like to vote Tory, they just think he Tories have drifted way way way to the left - tax, migration, wokeness - and they are correct
I don’t think that’s quite true. Reform voters I know feel looked down on by the Tory Party. It’s a cultural thing.
I’m surprised more hasn’t been made of the Farage interview with Sam Coates of Sky News.
Farage refusing to rule out switching to the Tories if he wins in Clacton .
It's the obvious move, I don't think it's a surprise
I agree but the media should be all over this . It’s quite insulting to Reform voters .
I don't think it is. I imagine most Reform voters would quite like to vote Tory, they just think he Tories have drifted way way way to the left - tax, migration, wokeness - and they are correct
It's not often I agree with you and I don't on this.
Farage is an unreconstructed Thatcherite - we know he liked aspects of the Truss mini budget and is very keen on tax cuts and spending cuts.
That's not, I think, where the Reform voter base is - the immigration stuff they can agree with him but on tax and spending they want more public spending in WWC areas and were keen on the Johnsonian levelling up agenda, HS2 and other projects to bring wealth and jobs to parts of the North and Midlands.
Sunak's reversal of HS2 and the Levelling Up agenda has done for the Conservatives in the North and Midlands - Labour simply neglected the North, the Conservatives betrayed the North by reneging on the promises of the 2016 Referendum and 2019 election. This is one of the reasons Reform is doing so well in these areas.
Badenoch does seem to enjoy support from a few of the higher minded types on the right like Simon Heffer and Melanie Phillips. I imagine Leon would like Giles Coren's verdict on Braverman/Patel as a bit mediocre.
I spoke to a (Green) friend on Monday and we ended up discussing politics. He was really looking forward to seeing the Tories botted out and was totally unconcerned by right wing populism and saw no reason not to be contemptuous of them because:
a) The clear majority of people support progressive parties b) Tory/Right wing voters are old and dying c) You can't control migration anyway so it's all a waste of time
I tried to dissuade him from this optimistic view and urged more scepticism but he wasn't having it.
Living in a bubble would be a good description for this person. Younger working-class people outside big cities are probably more concerned about immigration than older people living in urban areas, for example.
Actually, I would say the group that is more negatively impacted by immigration is 40-55 year old non-homeowner, who works in a non-skilled role.
This group didn't go to University, has seen a lot of competition - leading to lower wages - from immigration, didn't benefit from the house price surge, and has now been sucker punched by the inflation that has followed Covid and the Ukraine invasion. They have few, if any, savings and work in a town or small city that has largely been left behind by globalisation. They are (relatively) socially conservative.
And they feel - not without reason - that they've been fucked by globalisation and by the fact that the Conservatives/LibDems/Labour all offer some shade of the same post-1979 consensus.
This is a sizeable bunch of voters, and Boris captured them in 2019, by promising to Get Brexit done and to Level Up their towns.
What they feel has happened instead is that Brexit hasn't reduced immigration of low skilled workers and Levelling Up was cancelled.
Hence: Reform.
The age group that had been disadvantaged by those trends doesn't begin at 40, but younger people perhaps find it harder to overcome their cognitive biases.
Interestingly some polls show Reform support by age looking like a Nike swoosh with 18-24 year olds more likely to back the party than 25-29 year olds.
I’m surprised more hasn’t been made of the Farage interview with Sam Coates of Sky News.
Farage refusing to rule out switching to the Tories if he wins in Clacton .
It's the obvious move, I don't think it's a surprise
I agree but the media should be all over this . It’s quite insulting to Reform voters .
I don't think it is. I imagine most Reform voters would quite like to vote Tory, they just think he Tories have drifted way way way to the left - tax, migration, wokeness - and they are correct
I don’t think that’s quite true. Reform voters I know feel looked down on by the Tory Party. It’s a cultural thing.
Except that Farage is going to win in Clacton (probably) by persuasing thousands of Tory voters to move to Reform
What are the chances of Farage doing a reverse takeover of the Tories?
It looks like he will probably win Clacton, so he will be in the Common, likely with a couple of Reform colleagues
How low do the Tories have to go to be mentally susceptible to Farage as leader?
I reckon if they are sub 100 seats and if Sunak loses his seat, and if Reform are within five points of the Tory vote percentage. That's the point at which the Tories will be in psychological meltdown, facing oblivion, and may turn to Farage in desperation
Am I wrong?
For once one of your mad fantasies seems plausible. I don't even think some of your prerequisite are necessary either. All that is necessary is for Farage to get elected and the Tories hammered and a sequence of events can then possibly start that leads to your conclusion.
Does anybody know who it is that has to make the decision on that kind of thing on the Tory party end? Presumably if Farage changes parties and joins the Tories as an MP that would need only the agreement of whoever's the interim leader at that point (same as accepting any other "defecting" MP)? For an official merger of the two parties I imagine it might be more complicated.
I think that matters because in some cases the people making that decision might be hopeful of getting the leadership themselves and wouldn't want to invite in the guy who would instantly become the hot favourite for that job.
What are the chances of Farage doing a reverse takeover of the Tories?
It looks like he will probably win Clacton, so he will be in the Common, likely with a couple of Reform colleagues
How low do the Tories have to go to be mentally susceptible to Farage as leader?
I reckon if they are sub 100 seats and if Sunak loses his seat, and if Reform are within five points of the Tory vote percentage. That's the point at which the Tories will be in psychological meltdown, facing oblivion, and may turn to Farage in desperation
Am I wrong?
What would such desparation get them? If they are still the second party, they get the privileges. Now if they fall to third, that's when it might happen. That's the threshold.
They will still be second party - but with Farage in charge. Big Nige will defect to the Tories. That's the scenario I am hypothesising
Do we need to prepare ourselves for Farage asking the questions at PMQs?
My daughter, aged 32, just now: "Dad, do you think Labour's got any chance of winning this time?" I was able to reassure her. She's actually quite a political animal, but it just goes to show that most people are blissfully unaware of polling.
I did meet someone, a former Tory voter (that is, I know they have voted Tory before, I don't know if they still are), who thinks Labour will fall short of a majority.
Imagine getting 5/6ths of the seats on possibly not even 40% of the vote.
Is there nothing the Tories can do to somehow call off Farage and mitigate the threat? Its surely in both their interests not to completely eviscerate any meaningful representation and voice for non Left wing MPs? It's one thing for the Left to win, another to have 40% of the electorate completely unrepresented in Parliament.
For the record i have always been receptive to some form of more proportional representation in the Commons, not just now.
As someone on the other side who has always been in favour of PR, I hope that a Labour supermajority changes Tory minds on FPTP. It plainly cannot be democratic for 40% of the vote to deliver 75% of the seats. Not that Labour will care (or that the Tories would if the boot were on the other foot).
No democracy is perfect and FPTP is the lesser of two evils. Under PR minor parties get a disproportionately loud voice at the table.
And it’s usually shambolic. Look at countries with coalitions.
Anyway, we had the chance to change the voting system 12 years ago and the British people voted decisively by 2:1 to keep it.
I tell you what though. I’ll agree to a voting referendum if you give me a referendum on the other two referenda we’ve held of late: Scottish Independence and Brexit.
Otherwise, no.
Errr. They voted not to move to AV.
If the referendum had been: "Do you want to keep FPTP as the voting system?" with the alternative left open, you would be correct. But they did not.
For example, of all the various voting systems, I regard AV as second worst, behind closed party list PR.
But I would probably vote in favour of STV with small multimember (3-5) constituencies, as I believe it would keep the best elements of FPTP and still allow for majority governments.
My daughter, aged 32, just now: "Dad, do you think Labour's got any chance of winning this time?" I was able to reassure her. She's actually quite a political animal, but it just goes to show that most people are blissfully unaware of polling.
We don't exactly have a surfeit of young women on PB discussing polling, as an example.
I’m surprised more hasn’t been made of the Farage interview with Sam Coates of Sky News.
Farage refusing to rule out switching to the Tories if he wins in Clacton .
Why am I not surprised.
Farage knows that his best chance is with the Tories in terms of his long term aspirations. So is just using Reform as a vehicle .
The media seem to be giving him an easy ride as they want a lot of drama post GE to report on !
If Labour do go on to win a 100+ seat majority then I am greatly looking forward to ignoring Farage for the next ten years.
He won’t be relevant to the discourse of this country.
Hmmm….. surely the most likely focal point of opposition to Labour is going to come from the populist right. That certainly looks to be the case now. Of course it’s possible LOTO Ed Davey opposes Labour from the left or the Tories get a centrist dad type to lead them but surely that has to be less likely.
Badenoch does seem to enjoy support from a few of the higher minded types on the right like Simon Heffer and Melanie Phillips. I imagine Leon would like Giles Coren's verdict on Braverman/Patel as a bit mediocre.
I spoke to a (Green) friend on Monday and we ended up discussing politics. He was really looking forward to seeing the Tories botted out and was totally unconcerned by right wing populism and saw no reason not to be contemptuous of them because:
a) The clear majority of people support progressive parties b) Tory/Right wing voters are old and dying c) You can't control migration anyway so it's all a waste of time
I tried to dissuade him from this optimistic view and urged more scepticism but he wasn't having it.
Living in a bubble would be a good description for this person. Younger working-class people outside big cities are probably more concerned about immigration than older people living in urban areas, for example.
Actually, I would say the group that is more negatively impacted by immigration is 40-55 year old non-homeowner, who works in a non-skilled role.
This group didn't go to University, has seen a lot of competition - leading to lower wages - from immigration, didn't benefit from the house price surge, and has now been sucker punched by the inflation that has followed Covid and the Ukraine invasion. They have few, if any, savings and work in a town or small city that has largely been left behind by globalisation. They are (relatively) socially conservative.
And they feel - not without reason - that they've been fucked by globalisation and by the fact that the Conservatives/LibDems/Labour all offer some shade of the same post-1979 consensus.
This is a sizeable bunch of voters, and Boris captured them in 2019, by promising to Get Brexit done and to Level Up their towns.
What they feel has happened instead is that Brexit hasn't reduced immigration of low skilled workers and Levelling Up was cancelled.
Hence: Reform.
A group that is also completely unrepresented on PB.
Leon is the only poster of note who's said they may vote for Reform. And of course, for him, immigration is the #1 issue.
I think it is for a lot of other voters, and maybe other posters, too, but there is a cordon sanitaire around admitting you're voting for them, especially among the status seeking middle classes, which are over-represented on PB. The only person I know voting for them IRL is a red trouser wearing posho who just openly came out and said the Tories have f***ed the country and Reform are our last hope. "And when do you move from your mews house in SW1 into a caravan in Jaywick?" was my reply - which probably says more about me than it does about him.
I do wonder if there is a "shy reform" vote in effect, though. A lot of people secretly agreeing with Farage but being too polite to say it out loud.
Sunak's protection officer investigated for alleged election date bets
A police officer working as part of the prime minister's close protection team has been suspended and later arrested over alleged bets about the timing of the general election, the BBC can reveal.
The Metropolitan Police were contacted by the Gambling Commission last Friday, who informed the force that they were investigating alleged bets made by a police constable from its Royalty and Specialist Protection Command.
The Met has told the BBC that "the matter was immediately referred to officers in the Met's Directorate of Professional Standards, who opened an investigation, and the officer was also removed from operational duties".
The officer was then arrested on Monday on suspicion of misconduct in public office. He was taken into custody and bailed pending further enquiries.
The matter has also been referred to the Independent Office for Police Conduct.
The Met said the Gambling Commission continues to lead the investigation into the alleged betting offences, "and our investigation is running in parallel to that".
Personally, I don't see the *criminal* offence here: insider betting is not illegal.
Misconduct in public office is a nebulous common law offence, they wanted to charge the Stephen Lawrence officers with it for, effectively, just being shit at their jobs. This guy's misfortune is being a cop. An MP is precisely not in public office (that is why the Chiltern Hundreds) so the other guy who did it is fine.
`There is nothing nebulous about using information gained whilst on duty for personal gain. This police officer is in serious trouble.
I said the offence was nebulous, not any particular instance of it. Most common law offences are badly in need of codification including this one. Nobody should be happy with the anomaly that the pc is liable but the MP is bulletproof on the same facts.
Imagine getting 5/6ths of the seats on possibly not even 40% of the vote.
Is there nothing the Tories can do to somehow call off Farage and mitigate the threat? Its surely in both their interests not to completely eviscerate any meaningful representation and voice for non Left wing MPs? It's one thing for the Left to win, another to have 40% of the electorate completely unrepresented in Parliament.
For the record i have always been receptive to some form of more proportional representation in the Commons, not just now.
As someone on the other side who has always been in favour of PR, I hope that a Labour supermajority changes Tory minds on FPTP. It plainly cannot be democratic for 40% of the vote to deliver 75% of the seats. Not that Labour will care (or that the Tories would if the boot were on the other foot).
No democracy is perfect and FPTP is the lesser of two evils. Under PR minor parties get a disproportionately loud voice at the table.
And it’s usually shambolic. Look at countries with coalitions.
Anyway, we had the chance to change the voting system 12 years ago and the British people voted decisively by 2:1 to keep it.
I tell you what though. I’ll agree to a voting referendum if you give me a referendum on the other two referenda we’ve held of late: Scottish Independence and Brexit.
Otherwise, no.
Errr. They voted not to move to AV.
If the referendum had been: "Do you want to keep FPTP as the voting system?" with the alternative left open, you would be correct. But they did not.
For example, of all the various voting systems, I regard AV as second worst, behind closed party list PR.
But I would probably vote in favour of STV with small multimember (3-5) constituencies, as I believe it would keep the best elements of FPTP and still allow for majority governments.
I wrote that, ‘we had the chance to change the voting system 12 years ago and the British people voted decisively by 2:1 to keep it.’
What’s even more drole is that the LibDems were in Government at the time. So if they didn’t like the offering to the people, they should have come up with something better.
They didn’t and it’s history. Unless, as I say, you want to re-open a Brexit referendum and an Indyref? Can’t be one rule for one referendum and different ones for the others.
I’m surprised more hasn’t been made of the Farage interview with Sam Coates of Sky News.
Farage refusing to rule out switching to the Tories if he wins in Clacton .
It's the obvious move, I don't think it's a surprise
I agree but the media should be all over this . It’s quite insulting to Reform voters .
I don't think it is. I imagine most Reform voters would quite like to vote Tory, they just think he Tories have drifted way way way to the left - tax, migration, wokeness - and they are correct
I don’t think that’s quite true. Reform voters I know feel looked down on by the Tory Party. It’s a cultural thing.
Except that Farage is going to win in Clacton (probably) by persuasing thousands of Tory voters to move to Reform
Most of their vote will be ex-Tories, I believe
That doesn’t invalidate my point. I come from the facinating intersection of rabidly Labour Whitstable and Reform curious Herne Bay. All sorts drink in pubs up there.
Different seats too. Whitstable is a big reason Rosie retained Canterbury in 2019 even though the students in the city had largely gone home. I think Herne Bay is now “Herne Bay and Deal” or somesuch
If Sunak does lose his seat it means his Trivial Pursuits question will be 'which PM was first to ever lose their seat?' rather than 'which PM walked out of D Day memorial early?'
I just find it really funny (sorry) that the tories may be about to get an absolute hammering and all of a sudden they’re bleating about the unfair rules.
Sunak's protection officer investigated for alleged election date bets
A police officer working as part of the prime minister's close protection team has been suspended and later arrested over alleged bets about the timing of the general election, the BBC can reveal.
The Metropolitan Police were contacted by the Gambling Commission last Friday, who informed the force that they were investigating alleged bets made by a police constable from its Royalty and Specialist Protection Command.
The Met has told the BBC that "the matter was immediately referred to officers in the Met's Directorate of Professional Standards, who opened an investigation, and the officer was also removed from operational duties".
The officer was then arrested on Monday on suspicion of misconduct in public office. He was taken into custody and bailed pending further enquiries.
The matter has also been referred to the Independent Office for Police Conduct.
The Met said the Gambling Commission continues to lead the investigation into the alleged betting offences, "and our investigation is running in parallel to that".
Only had 1 leaflet so far, when people on another side of the town have had 5 (4 from the same party). Someone needs to tell activists they are allowed to go more than one mile from their house when leafletting.
I just find it really funny (sorry) that the tories may be about to get an absolute hammering and all of a sudden they’re bleating about the unfair rules.
Sore losers.
I don’t see any of that. The one comment earlier was from someone who said they had been in favour of more PR for a while now.
Keir Starmer has changed Labour, he says, but has the leader gone too far? Albert Toth speaks to Jeremy Corbyn, Green co-leader Carla Denyer and more about the ballot box rebellion the party could face on July 4
I'm sure Starmer will be devastated to be told he has destroyed party unity by culling the left wing, and thus will not get the support of people leaving comments in support of a former Labour member, a Green party leader, and others, even as he gallops towards a massive majority.
And, given his external opponents fear he will be very left wing indeed, really they should be pretty content.
What will be hilarious is if he manages it on less votes than Corbyn.
The polls say otherwise. Channel 4 News is a left of centre version of GB News.
Badenoch does seem to enjoy support from a few of the higher minded types on the right like Simon Heffer and Melanie Phillips. I imagine Leon would like Giles Coren's verdict on Braverman/Patel as a bit mediocre.
I spoke to a (Green) friend on Monday and we ended up discussing politics. He was really looking forward to seeing the Tories botted out and was totally unconcerned by right wing populism and saw no reason not to be contemptuous of them because:
a) The clear majority of people support progressive parties b) Tory/Right wing voters are old and dying c) You can't control migration anyway so it's all a waste of time
I tried to dissuade him from this optimistic view and urged more scepticism but he wasn't having it.
Living in a bubble would be a good description for this person. Younger working-class people outside big cities are probably more concerned about immigration than older people living in urban areas, for example.
Actually, I would say the group that is more negatively impacted by immigration is 40-55 year old non-homeowner, who works in a non-skilled role.
This group didn't go to University, has seen a lot of competition - leading to lower wages - from immigration, didn't benefit from the house price surge, and has now been sucker punched by the inflation that has followed Covid and the Ukraine invasion. They have few, if any, savings and work in a town or small city that has largely been left behind by globalisation. They are (relatively) socially conservative.
And they feel - not without reason - that they've been fucked by globalisation and by the fact that the Conservatives/LibDems/Labour all offer some shade of the same post-1979 consensus.
This is a sizeable bunch of voters, and Boris captured them in 2019, by promising to Get Brexit done and to Level Up their towns.
What they feel has happened instead is that Brexit hasn't reduced immigration of low skilled workers and Levelling Up was cancelled.
Hence: Reform.
The age group that had been disadvantaged by those trends doesn't begin at 40, but younger people perhaps find it harder to overcome their cognitive biases.
Interestingly some polls show Reform support by age looking like a Nike swoosh with 18-24 year olds more likely to back the party than 25-29 year olds.
People below the age of 30 are dramatically more likely to have friends who are gay or trans or non-British than people over the age 40.
That means that they find Reform's social conservatism and - how to put it - anti-immigration rhetoric very off-putting. They are also much more likely to believe in global warming, vaccines, and the like.
It's not hard to see why they don't find the Reform platform particularly enticing. And while I don't mean to be rude, I think your use of the words "cognitive biases" comes over as the kind of sneering.
Sunak's protection officer investigated for alleged election date bets
A police officer working as part of the prime minister's close protection team has been suspended and later arrested over alleged bets about the timing of the general election, the BBC can reveal.
The Metropolitan Police were contacted by the Gambling Commission last Friday, who informed the force that they were investigating alleged bets made by a police constable from its Royalty and Specialist Protection Command.
The Met has told the BBC that "the matter was immediately referred to officers in the Met's Directorate of Professional Standards, who opened an investigation, and the officer was also removed from operational duties".
The officer was then arrested on Monday on suspicion of misconduct in public office. He was taken into custody and bailed pending further enquiries.
The matter has also been referred to the Independent Office for Police Conduct.
The Met said the Gambling Commission continues to lead the investigation into the alleged betting offences, "and our investigation is running in parallel to that".
Pissups and breweries come to mind, they really do.
It’s the Met.
The policeman probably walked into the bookies in uniform. Told the girl behind the counter he was on the PMs close protection team. And demanded a discount for being a copper
Sunak's protection officer investigated for alleged election date bets
A police officer working as part of the prime minister's close protection team has been suspended and later arrested over alleged bets about the timing of the general election, the BBC can reveal.
The Metropolitan Police were contacted by the Gambling Commission last Friday, who informed the force that they were investigating alleged bets made by a police constable from its Royalty and Specialist Protection Command.
The Met has told the BBC that "the matter was immediately referred to officers in the Met's Directorate of Professional Standards, who opened an investigation, and the officer was also removed from operational duties".
The officer was then arrested on Monday on suspicion of misconduct in public office. He was taken into custody and bailed pending further enquiries.
The matter has also been referred to the Independent Office for Police Conduct.
The Met said the Gambling Commission continues to lead the investigation into the alleged betting offences, "and our investigation is running in parallel to that".
Personally, I don't see the *criminal* offence here: insider betting is not illegal.
It is misconduct in a public office which is a common law offence. If Rishi hadn't overlooked telling his cleaner (and let's not be too hasty in assuming that) he or she would be able to use the inside information without committing an offence. But a police officer is in a different position and seeking to profit from information obtained during the course of their duty is an offence.
This is spot on, and I was incorrect: it is certainly misconduct in a public office.
Sunak's protection officer investigated for alleged election date bets
A police officer working as part of the prime minister's close protection team has been suspended and later arrested over alleged bets about the timing of the general election, the BBC can reveal.
The Metropolitan Police were contacted by the Gambling Commission last Friday, who informed the force that they were investigating alleged bets made by a police constable from its Royalty and Specialist Protection Command.
The Met has told the BBC that "the matter was immediately referred to officers in the Met's Directorate of Professional Standards, who opened an investigation, and the officer was also removed from operational duties".
The officer was then arrested on Monday on suspicion of misconduct in public office. He was taken into custody and bailed pending further enquiries.
The matter has also been referred to the Independent Office for Police Conduct.
The Met said the Gambling Commission continues to lead the investigation into the alleged betting offences, "and our investigation is running in parallel to that".
Personally, I don't see the *criminal* offence here: insider betting is not illegal.
Misconduct in public office is a nebulous common law offence, they wanted to charge the Stephen Lawrence officers with it for, effectively, just being shit at their jobs. This guy's misfortune is being a cop. An MP is precisely not in public office (that is why the Chiltern Hundreds) so the other guy who did it is fine.
`There is nothing nebulous about using information gained whilst on duty for personal gain. This police officer is in serious trouble.
I said the offence was nebulous, not any particular instance of it. Most common law offences are badly in need of codification including this one. Nobody should be happy with the anomaly that the pc is liable but the MP is bulletproof on the same facts.
I don't see that as anomalous. There is a separate question of whether this kind of insider dealing should be made an offence but being a police officer, or a judge or minister has responsibilities.
What are the chances of Farage doing a reverse takeover of the Tories?
It looks like he will probably win Clacton, so he will be in the Common, likely with a couple of Reform colleagues
How low do the Tories have to go to be mentally susceptible to Farage as leader?
I reckon if they are sub 100 seats and if Sunak loses his seat, and if Reform are within five points of the Tory vote percentage. That's the point at which the Tories will be in psychological meltdown, facing oblivion, and may turn to Farage in desperation
Am I wrong?
For once one of your mad fantasies seems plausible. I don't even think some of your prerequisite are necessary either. All that is necessary is for Farage to get elected and the Tories hammered and a sequence of events can then possibly start that leads to your conclusion.
Does anybody know who it is that has to make the decision on that kind of thing on the Tory party end? Presumably if Farage changes parties and joins the Tories as an MP that would need only the agreement of whoever's the interim leader at that point (same as accepting any other "defecting" MP)? For an official merger of the two parties I imagine it might be more complicated.
I think that matters because in some cases the people making that decision might be hopeful of getting the leadership themselves and wouldn't want to invite in the guy who would instantly become the hot favourite for that job.
Farage's best bet would be to lead his two MPs straight into the Tory party and then stand for leader. Of course that might split it in two.
Sunak's protection officer investigated for alleged election date bets
A police officer working as part of the prime minister's close protection team has been suspended and later arrested over alleged bets about the timing of the general election, the BBC can reveal.
The Metropolitan Police were contacted by the Gambling Commission last Friday, who informed the force that they were investigating alleged bets made by a police constable from its Royalty and Specialist Protection Command.
The Met has told the BBC that "the matter was immediately referred to officers in the Met's Directorate of Professional Standards, who opened an investigation, and the officer was also removed from operational duties".
The officer was then arrested on Monday on suspicion of misconduct in public office. He was taken into custody and bailed pending further enquiries.
The matter has also been referred to the Independent Office for Police Conduct.
The Met said the Gambling Commission continues to lead the investigation into the alleged betting offences, "and our investigation is running in parallel to that".
Pissups and breweries come to mind, they really do.
It’s the Met.
The policeman probably walked into the bookies in uniform. Told the girl behind the counter he was on the PMs close protection team. And demanded a discount for being a copper
Asked her to take the stake out of the protection money.
Sunak's protection officer investigated for alleged election date bets
A police officer working as part of the prime minister's close protection team has been suspended and later arrested over alleged bets about the timing of the general election, the BBC can reveal.
The Metropolitan Police were contacted by the Gambling Commission last Friday, who informed the force that they were investigating alleged bets made by a police constable from its Royalty and Specialist Protection Command.
The Met has told the BBC that "the matter was immediately referred to officers in the Met's Directorate of Professional Standards, who opened an investigation, and the officer was also removed from operational duties".
The officer was then arrested on Monday on suspicion of misconduct in public office. He was taken into custody and bailed pending further enquiries.
The matter has also been referred to the Independent Office for Police Conduct.
The Met said the Gambling Commission continues to lead the investigation into the alleged betting offences, "and our investigation is running in parallel to that".
Personally, I don't see the *criminal* offence here: insider betting is not illegal.
It's about standards.
Caesar's wife etc.
I mean from my own personal experience back in the run up to GE2015 I was about to back the Tories some more to win most seats and was about to bet a decent amount on it but ComRes sent me an embargoed poll which said the Tories were doing better in the marginals so I decided not to make that bet until the poll became public.
The price moved but I am glad I stuck to my principles.
That's a very fair point. I would never bet off an embagoed poll for just those reasons.
I just find it really funny (sorry) that the tories may be about to get an absolute hammering and all of a sudden they’re bleating about the unfair rules.
Sore losers.
I don’t see any of that. The one comment earlier was from someone who said they had been in favour of more PR for a while now.
You’ve not been following what the Conservatives have been saying for the past week about the dangers of Super majorities? And complaints about the voting system and how ‘dangerous for democracy’ it would be if one party had 500 seats on 40% of the vote?
It’s a joke.
We had the chance to change the voting system and we decided to keep the one we have.
The time to take this seriously is if the two main parties are neck-and-neck and then the tories want to change the system. Not now.
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What are the chances of Farage doing a reverse takeover of the Tories?
It looks like he will probably win Clacton, so he will be in the Common, likely with a couple of Reform colleagues
How low do the Tories have to go to be mentally susceptible to Farage as leader?
I reckon if they are sub 100 seats and if Sunak loses his seat, and if Reform are within five points of the Tory vote percentage. That's the point at which the Tories will be in psychological meltdown, facing oblivion, and may turn to Farage in desperation
Am I wrong?
Yes.
I mean, if the Conservative Party loses the mantle of Official Opposition, it's possible.
But otherwise I think it's difficult because
(a) Badenoch / Patel / Braverman and other senior Conservatives want their shot at becoming LOO. Why would they give it up?
and
(b) if you are in a Conservative seat in the South East, and the LibDems are second... do you really want Nigel Farage as party leader? The MPs who would benefit the most (and who would be most keen) are the ones in Red Wall constituencies... and are therefore no longer MPs.
True
But I'm positing a Tory party in a blind panic, down to say 68 seats and with most big beasts slain in the arena
In that state they might do anything and Farage might seem like a "saviour"
UKIP and its successors have jerked the party around, zombie ant-style, since 2016 and I find the idea of a final takeover of the host by Farage and a small cohort of Reform MPs compelling and horrific. Like an episode of 'Last of Us'.
I think this is entirely possible and in fact a genius move to lure other Tories into voting Reform to make it more likely.
So Starmer wins a big majority. And a couple of months later finds himself facing LOTO Farage? I know we have remarked before that he's a lucky General, but that would have to be classed as witchcraft.
Badenoch does seem to enjoy support from a few of the higher minded types on the right like Simon Heffer and Melanie Phillips. I imagine Leon would like Giles Coren's verdict on Braverman/Patel as a bit mediocre.
I spoke to a (Green) friend on Monday and we ended up discussing politics. He was really looking forward to seeing the Tories botted out and was totally unconcerned by right wing populism and saw no reason not to be contemptuous of them because:
a) The clear majority of people support progressive parties b) Tory/Right wing voters are old and dying c) You can't control migration anyway so it's all a waste of time
I tried to dissuade him from this optimistic view and urged more scepticism but he wasn't having it.
Living in a bubble would be a good description for this person. Younger working-class people outside big cities are probably more concerned about immigration than older people living in urban areas, for example.
Actually, I would say the group that is more negatively impacted by immigration is 40-55 year old non-homeowner, who works in a non-skilled role.
This group didn't go to University, has seen a lot of competition - leading to lower wages - from immigration, didn't benefit from the house price surge, and has now been sucker punched by the inflation that has followed Covid and the Ukraine invasion. They have few, if any, savings and work in a town or small city that has largely been left behind by globalisation. They are (relatively) socially conservative.
And they feel - not without reason - that they've been fucked by globalisation and by the fact that the Conservatives/LibDems/Labour all offer some shade of the same post-1979 consensus.
This is a sizeable bunch of voters, and Boris captured them in 2019, by promising to Get Brexit done and to Level Up their towns.
What they feel has happened instead is that Brexit hasn't reduced immigration of low skilled workers and Levelling Up was cancelled.
Hence: Reform.
A group that is also completely unrepresented on PB.
Leon is the only poster of note who's said they may vote for Reform. And of course, for him, immigration is the #1 issue.
I think it is for a lot of other voters, and maybe other posters, too, but there is a cordon sanitaire around admitting you're voting for them, especially among the status seeking middle classes, which are over-represented on PB. The only person I know voting for them IRL is a red trouser wearing posho who just openly came out and said the Tories have f***ed the country and Reform are our last hope. "And when do you move from your mews house in SW1 into a caravan in Jaywick?" was my reply - which probably says more about me than it does about him.
I do wonder if there is a "shy reform" vote in effect, though. A lot of people secretly agreeing with Farage but being too polite to say it out loud.
I just find it really funny (sorry) that the tories may be about to get an absolute hammering and all of a sudden they’re bleating about the unfair rules.
Sore losers.
I don’t see any of that. The one comment earlier was from someone who said they had been in favour of more PR for a while now.
You’ve not been following what the Conservatives have been saying for the past week about the dangers of Super majorities? And complaints about the voting system and how ‘dangerous for democracy’ it would be if one party had 500 seats on 40% of the vote?
It’s a joke.
We had the chance to change the voting system and we decided to keep the one we have.
The time to take this seriously is if the two main parties are neck-and-neck and then the tories want to change the system. Not now.
I don’t see that as complaining about unfair rules. Just a warning of the consequences.
Badenoch does seem to enjoy support from a few of the higher minded types on the right like Simon Heffer and Melanie Phillips. I imagine Leon would like Giles Coren's verdict on Braverman/Patel as a bit mediocre.
I spoke to a (Green) friend on Monday and we ended up discussing politics. He was really looking forward to seeing the Tories botted out and was totally unconcerned by right wing populism and saw no reason not to be contemptuous of them because:
a) The clear majority of people support progressive parties b) Tory/Right wing voters are old and dying c) You can't control migration anyway so it's all a waste of time
I tried to dissuade him from this optimistic view and urged more scepticism but he wasn't having it.
Living in a bubble would be a good description for this person. Younger working-class people outside big cities are probably more concerned about immigration than older people living in urban areas, for example.
Actually, I would say the group that is more negatively impacted by immigration is 40-55 year old non-homeowner, who works in a non-skilled role.
This group didn't go to University, has seen a lot of competition - leading to lower wages - from immigration, didn't benefit from the house price surge, and has now been sucker punched by the inflation that has followed Covid and the Ukraine invasion. They have few, if any, savings and work in a town or small city that has largely been left behind by globalisation. They are (relatively) socially conservative.
And they feel - not without reason - that they've been fucked by globalisation and by the fact that the Conservatives/LibDems/Labour all offer some shade of the same post-1979 consensus.
This is a sizeable bunch of voters, and Boris captured them in 2019, by promising to Get Brexit done and to Level Up their towns.
What they feel has happened instead is that Brexit hasn't reduced immigration of low skilled workers and Levelling Up was cancelled.
Hence: Reform.
A group that is also completely unrepresented on PB.
Leon is the only poster of note who's said they may vote for Reform. And of course, for him, immigration is the #1 issue.
I think it is for a lot of other voters, and maybe other posters, too, but there is a cordon sanitaire around admitting you're voting for them, especially among the status seeking middle classes, which are over-represented on PB. The only person I know voting for them IRL is a red trouser wearing posho who just openly came out and said the Tories have f***ed the country and Reform are our last hope. "And when do you move from your mews house in SW1 into a caravan in Jaywick?" was my reply - which probably says more about me than it does about him.
I do wonder if there is a "shy reform" vote in effect, though. A lot of people secretly agreeing with Farage but being too polite to say it out loud.
Polls show that immigration is the 3rd most important issue for UK voters, for many it will be number 1
Sunak's protection officer investigated for alleged election date bets
A police officer working as part of the prime minister's close protection team has been suspended and later arrested over alleged bets about the timing of the general election, the BBC can reveal.
The Metropolitan Police were contacted by the Gambling Commission last Friday, who informed the force that they were investigating alleged bets made by a police constable from its Royalty and Specialist Protection Command.
The Met has told the BBC that "the matter was immediately referred to officers in the Met's Directorate of Professional Standards, who opened an investigation, and the officer was also removed from operational duties".
The officer was then arrested on Monday on suspicion of misconduct in public office. He was taken into custody and bailed pending further enquiries.
The matter has also been referred to the Independent Office for Police Conduct.
The Met said the Gambling Commission continues to lead the investigation into the alleged betting offences, "and our investigation is running in parallel to that".
And can I just remind you that the 2011 Referendum question was this:
At present, the UK uses the "first past the post" system to elect MPs to the House of Commons. Should the "alternative vote" system be used instead?
By two to one the British people voted to keep the existing First Past the Post System, which was named in the question, against the alternative PR that was offered.
Any talk of PR is irrelevant unless or until the conditions for the LibDems to be part of the Gvt come round again. Labour is about to lose all interest for obvious reasons, and any Tory flirtation will similarly vanish the instant they next take the lead in the polls and can sniff half a chance of a majority (mid-late 2025 I should think, post spending review).
Sunak's protection officer investigated for alleged election date bets
A police officer working as part of the prime minister's close protection team has been suspended and later arrested over alleged bets about the timing of the general election, the BBC can reveal.
The Metropolitan Police were contacted by the Gambling Commission last Friday, who informed the force that they were investigating alleged bets made by a police constable from its Royalty and Specialist Protection Command.
The Met has told the BBC that "the matter was immediately referred to officers in the Met's Directorate of Professional Standards, who opened an investigation, and the officer was also removed from operational duties".
The officer was then arrested on Monday on suspicion of misconduct in public office. He was taken into custody and bailed pending further enquiries.
The matter has also been referred to the Independent Office for Police Conduct.
The Met said the Gambling Commission continues to lead the investigation into the alleged betting offences, "and our investigation is running in parallel to that".
Pissups and breweries come to mind, they really do.
It’s the Met.
The policeman probably walked into the bookies in uniform. Told the girl behind the counter he was on the PMs close protection team. And demanded a discount for being a copper
And then asked her what she was doing later, whilst toying with his truncheon
Badenoch does seem to enjoy support from a few of the higher minded types on the right like Simon Heffer and Melanie Phillips. I imagine Leon would like Giles Coren's verdict on Braverman/Patel as a bit mediocre.
I spoke to a (Green) friend on Monday and we ended up discussing politics. He was really looking forward to seeing the Tories botted out and was totally unconcerned by right wing populism and saw no reason not to be contemptuous of them because:
a) The clear majority of people support progressive parties b) Tory/Right wing voters are old and dying c) You can't control migration anyway so it's all a waste of time
I tried to dissuade him from this optimistic view and urged more scepticism but he wasn't having it.
Living in a bubble would be a good description for this person. Younger working-class people outside big cities are probably more concerned about immigration than older people living in urban areas, for example.
Actually, I would say the group that is more negatively impacted by immigration is 40-55 year old non-homeowner, who works in a non-skilled role.
This group didn't go to University, has seen a lot of competition - leading to lower wages - from immigration, didn't benefit from the house price surge, and has now been sucker punched by the inflation that has followed Covid and the Ukraine invasion. They have few, if any, savings and work in a town or small city that has largely been left behind by globalisation. They are (relatively) socially conservative.
And they feel - not without reason - that they've been fucked by globalisation and by the fact that the Conservatives/LibDems/Labour all offer some shade of the same post-1979 consensus.
This is a sizeable bunch of voters, and Boris captured them in 2019, by promising to Get Brexit done and to Level Up their towns.
What they feel has happened instead is that Brexit hasn't reduced immigration of low skilled workers and Levelling Up was cancelled.
Hence: Reform.
A group that is also completely unrepresented on PB.
Leon is the only poster of note who's said they may vote for Reform. And of course, for him, immigration is the #1 issue.
I think it is for a lot of other voters, and maybe other posters, too, but there is a cordon sanitaire around admitting you're voting for them, especially among the status seeking middle classes, which are over-represented on PB. The only person I know voting for them IRL is a red trouser wearing posho who just openly came out and said the Tories have f***ed the country and Reform are our last hope. "And when do you move from your mews house in SW1 into a caravan in Jaywick?" was my reply - which probably says more about me than it does about him.
I do wonder if there is a "shy reform" vote in effect, though. A lot of people secretly agreeing with Farage but being too polite to say it out loud.
Reform voters are not going to appearing onthis site, generally they are low information voters.
In the early 2000s I had two friends I liked to chat with politics about in the pub, 1 was a UKIP town councillor (elected as a Tory and defected), 1 a Tory member, both in their 20s at the time so fairly unusual Gen Xers.
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A leading businesswoman who is married to the policing minister, Chris Philp, has been reported to the Crown Prosecution Service (CPS) by a former employer and is being sued in the high court over allegations of corporate espionage.
Elizabeth Philp, 40, whose husband has called for “zero tolerance” to all crime, is accused of data-handling offences and unlawfully using confidential information from her former employer to set up a rival business.
She denies the allegations and is countersuing her former employer, whom she accuses of cyber-attacking the website of the company she subsequently founded.
The legal tussle centres on the departure of Philp from the London Specialist Pharmacy Group (LSPG), where she was chief executive until 2017, and the founding of her own company, Roseway Labs.
Farage is just trying out a Trump-style agenda in the UK, isn't he, to see how much support it would get?
The focus on (illegal) immigration, combined with populist but largely unaffordable domestic and tax policies, rage against globalisation and international institutions, and a chunk of conspiracy theory shite about vaccines and the WEF etc. seems to me just to be Trumpism applied to the UK. And the target audience is very similar: disillusioned, left-behind white working class folk in the coastal areas and the UK equivalent of the rust belt.
It's almost reassuring that, thus far, this menu is less appealing in the UK than the USA. I hope it stays that way.
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And can I just remind you that the 2011 Referendum question was this:
At present, the UK uses the "first past the post" system to elect MPs to the House of Commons. Should the "alternative vote" system be used instead?
By two to one the British people voted to keep the existing First Past the Post System, which was named in the question, against the alternative PR that was offered.
And? People did not want the alternative offered, and personally I don't think they'd support a different alternative either, but that vote cannot in any way be taken as some lifetime renunciation of all non FPTP options out there.
What are the chances of Farage doing a reverse takeover of the Tories?
It looks like he will probably win Clacton, so he will be in the Common, likely with a couple of Reform colleagues
How low do the Tories have to go to be mentally susceptible to Farage as leader?
I reckon if they are sub 100 seats and if Sunak loses his seat, and if Reform are within five points of the Tory vote percentage. That's the point at which the Tories will be in psychological meltdown, facing oblivion, and may turn to Farage in desperation
Am I wrong?
Probably yes: the timeline back to power doesn´t really favour the 60 year old Farage vs, Tom Tugendhat (50) or the Kemi Badenoch (44). Neither is Farage bringing that much to the (Tory) party. A few, questionable donors, no real organisation or councilors and perhaps a handful of MPs. Farage has a reasonable number of skeletons in his closet and is a pig in a poke.
It took the Tories 13 years and 4 leaders to get from 1997 to 2010, and the lesson for many Tories will be to take time in rebuilding their organisation, lots of "clause 4 moment" discussions, anguished debate about "rebuilding trust" etc. It will be a hard way back, and although 2025 may be too soon, especially since they will be defending counties where they will have lost a lot of votes. On the other hand in 2026 there will be the elections to the Scottish Parliament, and I could see a gentle recovery starting then. Farage, of course is toxic waste in Scotland.
A good quarter of the voters are still going to put their cross in the blue box, and Reform will, at the very outside, get less than half that. Reform voters will need to come back to the Tories for them to ever win, but as for the Reform UK Ltd, "party", it is a chimera that the Conservative Party would be insane to want to merge with it.
So whoever next leads the Tory Party, it will be a blood, sweat and tears programme of rebuilding, but that is far more likely than smoking the Reform waccy baccy. Of course it could be that the new leader needs to do a Militant on the Trussite, pro-Reform fraction, small though it is, but Tory expulsions are nothing new.
Wait, is one of those showing SNP down 30 but gaining Orkney and Shetland?
Gaining Edinburgh West I think, which won't happen either.
LDs being rabidly pro-car locally, though.
Conversely showing the Tories winning Gordon and Buchan, but nothing else in the North East of Scotland. That seems something of a stretch to put it politely.
I also see Tewkesbury reported by PtP as "a sea of gold" still stays in the Blue column. Could happen of course, but with the momentum with the Lib Dems at the moment, that also sounds rather off, especially if seats like Surrey Heath are showing as a Lib Dem gain.
Some of the YouGov doesn’t pass the sniff test at constituency level. I’m pretty sure Helen Morgan will hold North Shropshire for the LibDems. And obvs St Nige of the White Cliffs will probably win Clacton.
Badenoch does seem to enjoy support from a few of the higher minded types on the right like Simon Heffer and Melanie Phillips. I imagine Leon would like Giles Coren's verdict on Braverman/Patel as a bit mediocre.
I spoke to a (Green) friend on Monday and we ended up discussing politics. He was really looking forward to seeing the Tories botted out and was totally unconcerned by right wing populism and saw no reason not to be contemptuous of them because:
a) The clear majority of people support progressive parties b) Tory/Right wing voters are old and dying c) You can't control migration anyway so it's all a waste of time
I tried to dissuade him from this optimistic view and urged more scepticism but he wasn't having it.
Living in a bubble would be a good description for this person. Younger working-class people outside big cities are probably more concerned about immigration than older people living in urban areas, for example.
Actually, I would say the group that is more negatively impacted by immigration is 40-55 year old non-homeowner, who works in a non-skilled role.
This group didn't go to University, has seen a lot of competition - leading to lower wages - from immigration, didn't benefit from the house price surge, and has now been sucker punched by the inflation that has followed Covid and the Ukraine invasion. They have few, if any, savings and work in a town or small city that has largely been left behind by globalisation. They are (relatively) socially conservative.
And they feel - not without reason - that they've been fucked by globalisation and by the fact that the Conservatives/LibDems/Labour all offer some shade of the same post-1979 consensus.
This is a sizeable bunch of voters, and Boris captured them in 2019, by promising to Get Brexit done and to Level Up their towns.
What they feel has happened instead is that Brexit hasn't reduced immigration of low skilled workers and Levelling Up was cancelled.
Hence: Reform.
The age group that had been disadvantaged by those trends doesn't begin at 40, but younger people perhaps find it harder to overcome their cognitive biases.
Interestingly some polls show Reform support by age looking like a Nike swoosh with 18-24 year olds more likely to back the party than 25-29 year olds.
People below the age of 30 are dramatically more likely to have friends who are gay or trans or non-British than people over the age 40.
That means that they find Reform's social conservatism and - how to put it - anti-immigration rhetoric very off-putting. They are also much more likely to believe in global warming, vaccines, and the like.
It's not hard to see why they don't find the Reform platform particularly enticing. And while I don't mean to be rude, I think your use of the words "cognitive biases" comes over as the kind of sneering.
Interestingly, however, they have quite centre right views on any number of things around choice and free enterprise (“side hussles”). They are fertile ground for a form of younger, fresher Tory Party if the new Labour Gvt ends up feeling a bit old fashioned and stifling, which it may. Especially if social conservatism coalesces in Reform.
Badenoch does seem to enjoy support from a few of the higher minded types on the right like Simon Heffer and Melanie Phillips. I imagine Leon would like Giles Coren's verdict on Braverman/Patel as a bit mediocre.
I spoke to a (Green) friend on Monday and we ended up discussing politics. He was really looking forward to seeing the Tories botted out and was totally unconcerned by right wing populism and saw no reason not to be contemptuous of them because:
a) The clear majority of people support progressive parties b) Tory/Right wing voters are old and dying c) You can't control migration anyway so it's all a waste of time
I tried to dissuade him from this optimistic view and urged more scepticism but he wasn't having it.
Living in a bubble would be a good description for this person. Younger working-class people outside big cities are probably more concerned about immigration than older people living in urban areas, for example.
Actually, I would say the group that is more negatively impacted by immigration is 40-55 year old non-homeowner, who works in a non-skilled role.
This group didn't go to University, has seen a lot of competition - leading to lower wages - from immigration, didn't benefit from the house price surge, and has now been sucker punched by the inflation that has followed Covid and the Ukraine invasion. They have few, if any, savings and work in a town or small city that has largely been left behind by globalisation. They are (relatively) socially conservative.
And they feel - not without reason - that they've been fucked by globalisation and by the fact that the Conservatives/LibDems/Labour all offer some shade of the same post-1979 consensus.
This is a sizeable bunch of voters, and Boris captured them in 2019, by promising to Get Brexit done and to Level Up their towns.
What they feel has happened instead is that Brexit hasn't reduced immigration of low skilled workers and Levelling Up was cancelled.
Hence: Reform.
A group that is also completely unrepresented on PB.
Leon is the only poster of note who's said they may vote for Reform. And of course, for him, immigration is the #1 issue.
I think it is for a lot of other voters, and maybe other posters, too, but there is a cordon sanitaire around admitting you're voting for them, especially among the status seeking middle classes, which are over-represented on PB. The only person I know voting for them IRL is a red trouser wearing posho who just openly came out and said the Tories have f***ed the country and Reform are our last hope. "And when do you move from your mews house in SW1 into a caravan in Jaywick?" was my reply - which probably says more about me than it does about him.
I do wonder if there is a "shy reform" vote in effect, though. A lot of people secretly agreeing with Farage but being too polite to say it out loud.
It does kinda make you wonder doesn't it? Reform supposedly on 15%, we have several hundred contributors who are far more interested in politics than about 95% of the population and...we don't have anyone. We have lots of deeply disillusioned Tories, including myself but none for Reform.
I’m surprised more hasn’t been made of the Farage interview with Sam Coates of Sky News.
Farage refusing to rule out switching to the Tories if he wins in Clacton .
It's the obvious move, I don't think it's a surprise
I agree but the media should be all over this . It’s quite insulting to Reform voters .
I don't think it is. I imagine most Reform voters would quite like to vote Tory, they just think he Tories have drifted way way way to the left - tax, migration, wokeness - and they are correct
It's not often I agree with you and I don't on this.
Farage is an unreconstructed Thatcherite - we know he liked aspects of the Truss mini budget and is very keen on tax cuts and spending cuts.
That's not, I think, where the Reform voter base is - the immigration stuff they can agree with him but on tax and spending they want more public spending in WWC areas and were keen on the Johnsonian levelling up agenda, HS2 and other projects to bring wealth and jobs to parts of the North and Midlands.
Sunak's reversal of HS2 and the Levelling Up agenda has done for the Conservatives in the North and Midlands - Labour simply neglected the North, the Conservatives betrayed the North by reneging on the promises of the 2016 Referendum and 2019 election. This is one of the reasons Reform is doing so well in these areas.
This is spot on: the Conservative reneging on their promises to the North and to the left behind feels very much like betrayal. And you know what they say about "a woman scorned".
The issue is - though - that without this group, the Conservatives have no chance of government. And without the traditional shire Tories, nor does Reform. They need to find common ground, and that's something that I just don't see at the moment.
Imagine getting 5/6ths of the seats on possibly not even 40% of the vote.
Is there nothing the Tories can do to somehow call off Farage and mitigate the threat? Its surely in both their interests not to completely eviscerate any meaningful representation and voice for non Left wing MPs? It's one thing for the Left to win, another to have 40% of the electorate completely unrepresented in Parliament.
For the record i have always been receptive to some form of more proportional representation in the Commons, not just now.
As someone on the other side who has always been in favour of PR, I hope that a Labour supermajority changes Tory minds on FPTP. It plainly cannot be democratic for 40% of the vote to deliver 75% of the seats. Not that Labour will care (or that the Tories would if the boot were on the other foot).
No democracy is perfect and FPTP is the lesser of two evils. Under PR minor parties get a disproportionately loud voice at the table.
And it’s usually shambolic. Look at countries with coalitions.
Anyway, we had the chance to change the voting system 12 years ago and the British people voted decisively by 2:1 to keep it.
I tell you what though. I’ll agree to a voting referendum if you give me a referendum on the other two referenda we’ve held of late: Scottish Independence and Brexit.
Otherwise, no.
Errr. They voted not to move to AV.
If the referendum had been: "Do you want to keep FPTP as the voting system?" with the alternative left open, you would be correct. But they did not.
For example, of all the various voting systems, I regard AV as second worst, behind closed party list PR.
But I would probably vote in favour of STV with small multimember (3-5) constituencies, as I believe it would keep the best elements of FPTP and still allow for majority governments.
I wrote that, ‘we had the chance to change the voting system 12 years ago and the British people voted decisively by 2:1 to keep it.’
What’s even more drole is that the LibDems were in Government at the time. So if they didn’t like the offering to the people, they should have come up with something better.
They didn’t and it’s history. Unless, as I say, you want to re-open a Brexit referendum and an Indyref? Can’t be one rule for one referendum and different ones for the others.
It can be whatever rule the Government of the time likes.
Regardless, I suspect most people who want a second PR referendum do in fact want a second Brexit referendum. (As for Indyref? I don't live in Scotland, so it's none of my business.)
Policing minister’s wife reported to CPS over corporate espionage claims
Exclusive: Elizabeth Philp denies allegations that she used trade secrets gained from former employer
A leading businesswoman who is married to the policing minister, Chris Philp, has been reported to the Crown Prosecution Service (CPS) by a former employer and is being sued in the high court over allegations of corporate espionage.
Elizabeth Philp, 40, whose husband has called for “zero tolerance” to all crime, is accused of data-handling offences and unlawfully using confidential information from her former employer to set up a rival business.
She denies the allegations and is countersuing her former employer, whom she accuses of cyber-attacking the website of the company she subsequently founded.
The legal tussle centres on the departure of Philp from the London Specialist Pharmacy Group (LSPG), where she was chief executive until 2017, and the founding of her own company, Roseway Labs.
And can I just remind you that the 2011 Referendum question was this:
At present, the UK uses the "first past the post" system to elect MPs to the House of Commons. Should the "alternative vote" system be used instead?
By two to one the British people voted to keep the existing First Past the Post System, which was named in the question, against the alternative PR that was offered.
And? People did not want the alternative offered, and personally I don't think they'd support a different alternative either, but that vote cannot in any way be taken as some lifetime renunciation of all non FPTP options out there.
Didn’t say it was.
The answer to your ‘And?’ is that we had a chance to change the voting system. 1. We decided to keep FPTP and 2. if the LibDems didn’t like the PR version, or the question, why the hell did they sign it off? They were in the Government.
Clue to the correct answer: Nick Clegg is a bit of a sh*t
Farage is just trying out a Trump-style agenda in the UK, isn't he, to see how much support it would get?
The focus on (illegal) immigration, combined with populist but largely unaffordable domestic and tax policies, rage against globalisation and international institutions, and a chunk of conspiracy theory shite about vaccines and the WEF etc. seems to me just to be Trumpism applied to the UK. And the target audience is very similar: disillusioned, left-behind white working class folk in the coastal areas and the UK equivalent of the rust belt.
It's almost reassuring that, thus far, this menu is less appealing in the UK than the USA. I hope it stays that way.
Farage is not focussing on illegal migration, he is very much focussed on LEGAL migration, tho he also mentions the boat people. He is of course right to do so, he is not accepting the Tory bait and switch. LEGAL migration is by far athe bigger issue
The pivotal moment of the campaign so far was when Farage got up on stage to announce his candidacy (and leadership of Reform) and he said "we have had 2.4 million migrants in 3 years"
That's the moment when the Tories blew up and when they started sliding towards apocalypse
Imagine getting 5/6ths of the seats on possibly not even 40% of the vote.
Is there nothing the Tories can do to somehow call off Farage and mitigate the threat? Its surely in both their interests not to completely eviscerate any meaningful representation and voice for non Left wing MPs? It's one thing for the Left to win, another to have 40% of the electorate completely unrepresented in Parliament.
For the record i have always been receptive to some form of more proportional representation in the Commons, not just now.
As someone on the other side who has always been in favour of PR, I hope that a Labour supermajority changes Tory minds on FPTP. It plainly cannot be democratic for 40% of the vote to deliver 75% of the seats. Not that Labour will care (or that the Tories would if the boot were on the other foot).
No democracy is perfect and FPTP is the lesser of two evils. Under PR minor parties get a disproportionately loud voice at the table.
And it’s usually shambolic. Look at countries with coalitions.
Anyway, we had the chance to change the voting system 12 years ago and the British people voted decisively by 2:1 to keep it.
I tell you what though. I’ll agree to a voting referendum if you give me a referendum on the other two referenda we’ve held of late: Scottish Independence and Brexit.
Otherwise, no.
Errr. They voted not to move to AV.
If the referendum had been: "Do you want to keep FPTP as the voting system?" with the alternative left open, you would be correct. But they did not.
For example, of all the various voting systems, I regard AV as second worst, behind closed party list PR.
But I would probably vote in favour of STV with small multimember (3-5) constituencies, as I believe it would keep the best elements of FPTP and still allow for majority governments.
I wrote that, ‘we had the chance to change the voting system 12 years ago and the British people voted decisively by 2:1 to keep it.’
What’s even more drole is that the LibDems were in Government at the time. So if they didn’t like the offering to the people, they should have come up with something better.
They didn’t and it’s history. Unless, as I say, you want to re-open a Brexit referendum and an Indyref? Can’t be one rule for one referendum and different ones for the others.
It can be whatever rule the Government of the time likes.
Regardless, I suspect most people who want a second PR referendum do in fact want a second Brexit referendum. (As for Indyref? I don't live in Scotland, so it's none of my business.)
Wait, the upcoming election isn’t a de facto referendum on independence?
Badenoch does seem to enjoy support from a few of the higher minded types on the right like Simon Heffer and Melanie Phillips. I imagine Leon would like Giles Coren's verdict on Braverman/Patel as a bit mediocre.
I spoke to a (Green) friend on Monday and we ended up discussing politics. He was really looking forward to seeing the Tories botted out and was totally unconcerned by right wing populism and saw no reason not to be contemptuous of them because:
a) The clear majority of people support progressive parties b) Tory/Right wing voters are old and dying c) You can't control migration anyway so it's all a waste of time
I tried to dissuade him from this optimistic view and urged more scepticism but he wasn't having it.
Living in a bubble would be a good description for this person. Younger working-class people outside big cities are probably more concerned about immigration than older people living in urban areas, for example.
Actually, I would say the group that is more negatively impacted by immigration is 40-55 year old non-homeowner, who works in a non-skilled role.
This group didn't go to University, has seen a lot of competition - leading to lower wages - from immigration, didn't benefit from the house price surge, and has now been sucker punched by the inflation that has followed Covid and the Ukraine invasion. They have few, if any, savings and work in a town or small city that has largely been left behind by globalisation. They are (relatively) socially conservative.
And they feel - not without reason - that they've been fucked by globalisation and by the fact that the Conservatives/LibDems/Labour all offer some shade of the same post-1979 consensus.
This is a sizeable bunch of voters, and Boris captured them in 2019, by promising to Get Brexit done and to Level Up their towns.
What they feel has happened instead is that Brexit hasn't reduced immigration of low skilled workers and Levelling Up was cancelled.
Hence: Reform.
A group that is also completely unrepresented on PB.
Leon is the only poster of note who's said they may vote for Reform. And of course, for him, immigration is the #1 issue.
I think it is for a lot of other voters, and maybe other posters, too, but there is a cordon sanitaire around admitting you're voting for them, especially among the status seeking middle classes, which are over-represented on PB. The only person I know voting for them IRL is a red trouser wearing posho who just openly came out and said the Tories have f***ed the country and Reform are our last hope. "And when do you move from your mews house in SW1 into a caravan in Jaywick?" was my reply - which probably says more about me than it does about him.
I do wonder if there is a "shy reform" vote in effect, though. A lot of people secretly agreeing with Farage but being too polite to say it out loud.
It does kinda make you wonder doesn't it? Reform supposedly on 15%, we have several hundred contributors who are far more interested in politics than about 95% of the population and...we don't have anyone. We have lots of deeply disillusioned Tories, including myself but none for Reform.
Its curious.
Not sure that’s true though. William Glenn seems to be heading that way, Leon is toying with it, and I’m pretty sure LuckyGuy is already there. There may be others. Shy reformers.
The fieldwork for your ‘latest’ MRP poll began 28 days ago on the 22nd May.
Perhaps you’ve been living under a rock, but a lot has changed since then.
Your poll is misleading and amounts to election interference
Blimey hahaha
He's going full Trump.
I expect the stop the steal bullshit on July 5th.
The swiftness of our counts at the least blunts the ability to drag out temper tantrums, with legal challenges having to be done after the winning MPs are already in post, not before they take them up.
Reform UK’s candidate in Barnsley South has denied co-founding a crypto firm branded a ‘ponzi scheme’ - despite video showing he described himself as the firm’s UK head.
Reform spokesman insists David White was just a “third party supplier” to Buddy Ex.
Asked why, then, he described himself onstage at a Thai conference for the firm’s top salespeople as “Head of Business UK and EU”, Reform implied he’d been asked to and did so out of politeness.
In his speech, Mr White says people had been asking him whether the firm was a “scam.”
Gesturing around to the glittering backdrop at the “Achievers Conclave 2023” in September, Mr White said: “Does this look like a scam?”
Badenoch does seem to enjoy support from a few of the higher minded types on the right like Simon Heffer and Melanie Phillips. I imagine Leon would like Giles Coren's verdict on Braverman/Patel as a bit mediocre.
I spoke to a (Green) friend on Monday and we ended up discussing politics. He was really looking forward to seeing the Tories botted out and was totally unconcerned by right wing populism and saw no reason not to be contemptuous of them because:
a) The clear majority of people support progressive parties b) Tory/Right wing voters are old and dying c) You can't control migration anyway so it's all a waste of time
I tried to dissuade him from this optimistic view and urged more scepticism but he wasn't having it.
Living in a bubble would be a good description for this person. Younger working-class people outside big cities are probably more concerned about immigration than older people living in urban areas, for example.
Actually, I would say the group that is more negatively impacted by immigration is 40-55 year old non-homeowner, who works in a non-skilled role.
This group didn't go to University, has seen a lot of competition - leading to lower wages - from immigration, didn't benefit from the house price surge, and has now been sucker punched by the inflation that has followed Covid and the Ukraine invasion. They have few, if any, savings and work in a town or small city that has largely been left behind by globalisation. They are (relatively) socially conservative.
And they feel - not without reason - that they've been fucked by globalisation and by the fact that the Conservatives/LibDems/Labour all offer some shade of the same post-1979 consensus.
This is a sizeable bunch of voters, and Boris captured them in 2019, by promising to Get Brexit done and to Level Up their towns.
What they feel has happened instead is that Brexit hasn't reduced immigration of low skilled workers and Levelling Up was cancelled.
Hence: Reform.
The age group that had been disadvantaged by those trends doesn't begin at 40, but younger people perhaps find it harder to overcome their cognitive biases.
Interestingly some polls show Reform support by age looking like a Nike swoosh with 18-24 year olds more likely to back the party than 25-29 year olds.
People below the age of 30 are dramatically more likely to have friends who are gay or trans or non-British than people over the age 40.
That means that they find Reform's social conservatism and - how to put it - anti-immigration rhetoric very off-putting. They are also much more likely to believe in global warming, vaccines, and the like.
It's not hard to see why they don't find the Reform platform particularly enticing. And while I don't mean to be rude, I think your use of the words "cognitive biases" comes over as the kind of sneering.
Interestingly, however, they have quite centre right views on any number of things around choice and free enterprise (“side hussles”). They are fertile ground for a form of younger, fresher Tory Party if the new Labour Gvt ends up feeling a bit old fashioned and stifling, which it may. Especially if social conservatism coalesces in Reform.
Well, that's Orange Book liberalism and Cameroonism - free market and socially liberal.
Maybe it is time for small constituency multi-member constituencies with STV after all?
My daughter, aged 32, just now: "Dad, do you think Labour's got any chance of winning this time?" I was able to reassure her. She's actually quite a political animal, but it just goes to show that most people are blissfully unaware of polling.
LDs appear to be going nowhere outside of the south of England, and even then that's mostly due to Tory decline.
That's exactly what happened in 1997. The vote share was down on 1992 yet the LDs gained 28 seats (if memory serves), all from the Conservatives.
If the Conservative vote collapses by half and the LD vote remains constant or goes up as a result of tactical voting, Davey won't complain.
There will be hundreds of seats where the LD vote remains static or declines in the face of Labour, Reform or Green advancing but that tranche of Con-LD seats is what matters, not the bigger picture.
As OGH always told us, it's about bums on benches not vote share.
And when those seats became defences in 2001, quite often there was a big increase in majority. See Ed Davey’s seat which was won by 56 in 97 and many thousands in 2001.
Badenoch does seem to enjoy support from a few of the higher minded types on the right like Simon Heffer and Melanie Phillips. I imagine Leon would like Giles Coren's verdict on Braverman/Patel as a bit mediocre.
I spoke to a (Green) friend on Monday and we ended up discussing politics. He was really looking forward to seeing the Tories botted out and was totally unconcerned by right wing populism and saw no reason not to be contemptuous of them because:
a) The clear majority of people support progressive parties b) Tory/Right wing voters are old and dying c) You can't control migration anyway so it's all a waste of time
I tried to dissuade him from this optimistic view and urged more scepticism but he wasn't having it.
Living in a bubble would be a good description for this person. Younger working-class people outside big cities are probably more concerned about immigration than older people living in urban areas, for example.
Actually, I would say the group that is more negatively impacted by immigration is 40-55 year old non-homeowner, who works in a non-skilled role.
This group didn't go to University, has seen a lot of competition - leading to lower wages - from immigration, didn't benefit from the house price surge, and has now been sucker punched by the inflation that has followed Covid and the Ukraine invasion. They have few, if any, savings and work in a town or small city that has largely been left behind by globalisation. They are (relatively) socially conservative.
And they feel - not without reason - that they've been fucked by globalisation and by the fact that the Conservatives/LibDems/Labour all offer some shade of the same post-1979 consensus.
This is a sizeable bunch of voters, and Boris captured them in 2019, by promising to Get Brexit done and to Level Up their towns.
What they feel has happened instead is that Brexit hasn't reduced immigration of low skilled workers and Levelling Up was cancelled.
Hence: Reform.
A group that is also completely unrepresented on PB.
Leon is the only poster of note who's said they may vote for Reform. And of course, for him, immigration is the #1 issue.
I think it is for a lot of other voters, and maybe other posters, too, but there is a cordon sanitaire around admitting you're voting for them, especially among the status seeking middle classes, which are over-represented on PB. The only person I know voting for them IRL is a red trouser wearing posho who just openly came out and said the Tories have f***ed the country and Reform are our last hope. "And when do you move from your mews house in SW1 into a caravan in Jaywick?" was my reply - which probably says more about me than it does about him.
I do wonder if there is a "shy reform" vote in effect, though. A lot of people secretly agreeing with Farage but being too polite to say it out loud.
It does kinda make you wonder doesn't it? Reform supposedly on 15%, we have several hundred contributors who are far more interested in politics than about 95% of the population and...we don't have anyone. We have lots of deeply disillusioned Tories, including myself but none for Reform.
Its curious.
Social anxiety. Not something I really suffer from, not these days anyway
Reform UK’s candidate in Barnsley South has denied co-founding a crypto firm branded a ‘ponzi scheme’ - despite video showing he described himself as the firm’s UK head.
Reform spokesman insists David White was just a “third party supplier” to Buddy Ex.
Asked why, then, he described himself onstage at a Thai conference for the firm’s top salespeople as “Head of Business UK and EU”, Reform implied he’d been asked to and did so out of politeness.
In his speech, Mr White says people had been asking him whether the firm was a “scam.”
Gesturing around to the glittering backdrop at the “Achievers Conclave 2023” in September, Mr White said: “Does this look like a scam?”
What is it with crypto that seems directly to link it to antivax, pro-Russia and all the other conspiracy shit? Is the idea that crypto circumvents the establishment and the WEF?
Badenoch does seem to enjoy support from a few of the higher minded types on the right like Simon Heffer and Melanie Phillips. I imagine Leon would like Giles Coren's verdict on Braverman/Patel as a bit mediocre.
I spoke to a (Green) friend on Monday and we ended up discussing politics. He was really looking forward to seeing the Tories botted out and was totally unconcerned by right wing populism and saw no reason not to be contemptuous of them because:
a) The clear majority of people support progressive parties b) Tory/Right wing voters are old and dying c) You can't control migration anyway so it's all a waste of time
I tried to dissuade him from this optimistic view and urged more scepticism but he wasn't having it.
Living in a bubble would be a good description for this person. Younger working-class people outside big cities are probably more concerned about immigration than older people living in urban areas, for example.
Actually, I would say the group that is more negatively impacted by immigration is 40-55 year old non-homeowner, who works in a non-skilled role.
This group didn't go to University, has seen a lot of competition - leading to lower wages - from immigration, didn't benefit from the house price surge, and has now been sucker punched by the inflation that has followed Covid and the Ukraine invasion. They have few, if any, savings and work in a town or small city that has largely been left behind by globalisation. They are (relatively) socially conservative.
And they feel - not without reason - that they've been fucked by globalisation and by the fact that the Conservatives/LibDems/Labour all offer some shade of the same post-1979 consensus.
This is a sizeable bunch of voters, and Boris captured them in 2019, by promising to Get Brexit done and to Level Up their towns.
What they feel has happened instead is that Brexit hasn't reduced immigration of low skilled workers and Levelling Up was cancelled.
Hence: Reform.
A group that is also completely unrepresented on PB.
Leon is the only poster of note who's said they may vote for Reform. And of course, for him, immigration is the #1 issue.
I think it is for a lot of other voters, and maybe other posters, too, but there is a cordon sanitaire around admitting you're voting for them, especially among the status seeking middle classes, which are over-represented on PB. The only person I know voting for them IRL is a red trouser wearing posho who just openly came out and said the Tories have f***ed the country and Reform are our last hope. "And when do you move from your mews house in SW1 into a caravan in Jaywick?" was my reply - which probably says more about me than it does about him.
I do wonder if there is a "shy reform" vote in effect, though. A lot of people secretly agreeing with Farage but being too polite to say it out loud.
It does kinda make you wonder doesn't it? Reform supposedly on 15%, we have several hundred contributors who are far more interested in politics than about 95% of the population and...we don't have anyone. We have lots of deeply disillusioned Tories, including myself but none for Reform.
Its curious.
It's a very right-wing party, at least if you take it seriously, and not many of the contributors are very right-wing (or indeed very left-wing).
Badenoch does seem to enjoy support from a few of the higher minded types on the right like Simon Heffer and Melanie Phillips. I imagine Leon would like Giles Coren's verdict on Braverman/Patel as a bit mediocre.
I spoke to a (Green) friend on Monday and we ended up discussing politics. He was really looking forward to seeing the Tories botted out and was totally unconcerned by right wing populism and saw no reason not to be contemptuous of them because:
a) The clear majority of people support progressive parties b) Tory/Right wing voters are old and dying c) You can't control migration anyway so it's all a waste of time
I tried to dissuade him from this optimistic view and urged more scepticism but he wasn't having it.
Living in a bubble would be a good description for this person. Younger working-class people outside big cities are probably more concerned about immigration than older people living in urban areas, for example.
Actually, I would say the group that is more negatively impacted by immigration is 40-55 year old non-homeowner, who works in a non-skilled role.
This group didn't go to University, has seen a lot of competition - leading to lower wages - from immigration, didn't benefit from the house price surge, and has now been sucker punched by the inflation that has followed Covid and the Ukraine invasion. They have few, if any, savings and work in a town or small city that has largely been left behind by globalisation. They are (relatively) socially conservative.
And they feel - not without reason - that they've been fucked by globalisation and by the fact that the Conservatives/LibDems/Labour all offer some shade of the same post-1979 consensus.
This is a sizeable bunch of voters, and Boris captured them in 2019, by promising to Get Brexit done and to Level Up their towns.
What they feel has happened instead is that Brexit hasn't reduced immigration of low skilled workers and Levelling Up was cancelled.
Hence: Reform.
A group that is also completely unrepresented on PB.
Leon is the only poster of note who's said they may vote for Reform. And of course, for him, immigration is the #1 issue.
I think it is for a lot of other voters, and maybe other posters, too, but there is a cordon sanitaire around admitting you're voting for them, especially among the status seeking middle classes, which are over-represented on PB. The only person I know voting for them IRL is a red trouser wearing posho who just openly came out and said the Tories have f***ed the country and Reform are our last hope. "And when do you move from your mews house in SW1 into a caravan in Jaywick?" was my reply - which probably says more about me than it does about him.
I do wonder if there is a "shy reform" vote in effect, though. A lot of people secretly agreeing with Farage but being too polite to say it out loud.
It does kinda make you wonder doesn't it? Reform supposedly on 15%, we have several hundred contributors who are far more interested in politics than about 95% of the population and...we don't have anyone. We have lots of deeply disillusioned Tories, including myself but none for Reform.
Its curious.
Not sure that’s true though. William Glenn seems to be heading that way, Leon is toying with it, and I’m pretty sure LuckyGuy is already there. There may be others. Shy reformers.
For an hour or two @Sean_F toyed with it, as well, tho I believe he is now a reluctant Tory, again
Badenoch does seem to enjoy support from a few of the higher minded types on the right like Simon Heffer and Melanie Phillips. I imagine Leon would like Giles Coren's verdict on Braverman/Patel as a bit mediocre.
I spoke to a (Green) friend on Monday and we ended up discussing politics. He was really looking forward to seeing the Tories botted out and was totally unconcerned by right wing populism and saw no reason not to be contemptuous of them because:
a) The clear majority of people support progressive parties b) Tory/Right wing voters are old and dying c) You can't control migration anyway so it's all a waste of time
I tried to dissuade him from this optimistic view and urged more scepticism but he wasn't having it.
Living in a bubble would be a good description for this person. Younger working-class people outside big cities are probably more concerned about immigration than older people living in urban areas, for example.
Actually, I would say the group that is more negatively impacted by immigration is 40-55 year old non-homeowner, who works in a non-skilled role.
This group didn't go to University, has seen a lot of competition - leading to lower wages - from immigration, didn't benefit from the house price surge, and has now been sucker punched by the inflation that has followed Covid and the Ukraine invasion. They have few, if any, savings and work in a town or small city that has largely been left behind by globalisation. They are (relatively) socially conservative.
And they feel - not without reason - that they've been fucked by globalisation and by the fact that the Conservatives/LibDems/Labour all offer some shade of the same post-1979 consensus.
This is a sizeable bunch of voters, and Boris captured them in 2019, by promising to Get Brexit done and to Level Up their towns.
What they feel has happened instead is that Brexit hasn't reduced immigration of low skilled workers and Levelling Up was cancelled.
Hence: Reform.
A group that is also completely unrepresented on PB.
Leon is the only poster of note who's said they may vote for Reform. And of course, for him, immigration is the #1 issue.
I think it is for a lot of other voters, and maybe other posters, too, but there is a cordon sanitaire around admitting you're voting for them, especially among the status seeking middle classes, which are over-represented on PB. The only person I know voting for them IRL is a red trouser wearing posho who just openly came out and said the Tories have f***ed the country and Reform are our last hope. "And when do you move from your mews house in SW1 into a caravan in Jaywick?" was my reply - which probably says more about me than it does about him.
I do wonder if there is a "shy reform" vote in effect, though. A lot of people secretly agreeing with Farage but being too polite to say it out loud.
It does kinda make you wonder doesn't it? Reform supposedly on 15%, we have several hundred contributors who are far more interested in politics than about 95% of the population and...we don't have anyone. We have lots of deeply disillusioned Tories, including myself but none for Reform.
Its curious.
The typical Reform voter will be too disengaged from politics to ever post on a site like this.
Reform UK’s candidate in Barnsley South has denied co-founding a crypto firm branded a ‘ponzi scheme’ - despite video showing he described himself as the firm’s UK head.
Reform spokesman insists David White was just a “third party supplier” to Buddy Ex.
Asked why, then, he described himself onstage at a Thai conference for the firm’s top salespeople as “Head of Business UK and EU”, Reform implied he’d been asked to and did so out of politeness.
In his speech, Mr White says people had been asking him whether the firm was a “scam.”
Gesturing around to the glittering backdrop at the “Achievers Conclave 2023” in September, Mr White said: “Does this look like a scam?”
What is it with crypto that seems directly to link it to antivax, pro-Russia and all the other conspiracy shit? Is the idea that crypto circumvents the establishment and the WEF?
The idea is that people into strange crypto coins are more gullible/suggestible than your typical punter.
Reform UK’s candidate in Barnsley South has denied co-founding a crypto firm branded a ‘ponzi scheme’ - despite video showing he described himself as the firm’s UK head.
Reform spokesman insists David White was just a “third party supplier” to Buddy Ex.
Asked why, then, he described himself onstage at a Thai conference for the firm’s top salespeople as “Head of Business UK and EU”, Reform implied he’d been asked to and did so out of politeness.
In his speech, Mr White says people had been asking him whether the firm was a “scam.”
Gesturing around to the glittering backdrop at the “Achievers Conclave 2023” in September, Mr White said: “Does this look like a scam?”
Crypto firm branded as a ponzi scheme you say? How unusual.
And doesn't everyone misrepresent their position out of politeness?
Reminds me of a comment around when people claim ignorance, in how convenient it is that suddenly people know nothing/are not involved, right at the point it might be criminal if they were involved.
The fieldwork for your ‘latest’ MRP poll began 28 days ago on the 22nd May.
Perhaps you’ve been living under a rock, but a lot has changed since then.
Your poll is misleading and amounts to election interference
Blimey hahaha
He's going full Trump.
I expect the stop the steal bullshit on July 5th.
Yes and I know @RobD in no way intended his comment to be taken this way but that 'Just a warning of the consequences’ is the kind of language we need to be mindful about.
We have a democratic system in this country. Back it for now. If you want it changed, the time is not 2 weeks before a possible landslide when one of the minor parties might try and re-enact the Capitol Hill riots. Can you imagine Tommy Robinson whipping up the English Nats in Parliament Square?
Just be careful.
By all means, return to PR a year or two before the next GE.
Badenoch does seem to enjoy support from a few of the higher minded types on the right like Simon Heffer and Melanie Phillips. I imagine Leon would like Giles Coren's verdict on Braverman/Patel as a bit mediocre.
I spoke to a (Green) friend on Monday and we ended up discussing politics. He was really looking forward to seeing the Tories botted out and was totally unconcerned by right wing populism and saw no reason not to be contemptuous of them because:
a) The clear majority of people support progressive parties b) Tory/Right wing voters are old and dying c) You can't control migration anyway so it's all a waste of time
I tried to dissuade him from this optimistic view and urged more scepticism but he wasn't having it.
Living in a bubble would be a good description for this person. Younger working-class people outside big cities are probably more concerned about immigration than older people living in urban areas, for example.
Actually, I would say the group that is more negatively impacted by immigration is 40-55 year old non-homeowner, who works in a non-skilled role.
This group didn't go to University, has seen a lot of competition - leading to lower wages - from immigration, didn't benefit from the house price surge, and has now been sucker punched by the inflation that has followed Covid and the Ukraine invasion. They have few, if any, savings and work in a town or small city that has largely been left behind by globalisation. They are (relatively) socially conservative.
And they feel - not without reason - that they've been fucked by globalisation and by the fact that the Conservatives/LibDems/Labour all offer some shade of the same post-1979 consensus.
This is a sizeable bunch of voters, and Boris captured them in 2019, by promising to Get Brexit done and to Level Up their towns.
What they feel has happened instead is that Brexit hasn't reduced immigration of low skilled workers and Levelling Up was cancelled.
Hence: Reform.
A group that is also completely unrepresented on PB.
Leon is the only poster of note who's said they may vote for Reform. And of course, for him, immigration is the #1 issue.
I think it is for a lot of other voters, and maybe other posters, too, but there is a cordon sanitaire around admitting you're voting for them, especially among the status seeking middle classes, which are over-represented on PB. The only person I know voting for them IRL is a red trouser wearing posho who just openly came out and said the Tories have f***ed the country and Reform are our last hope. "And when do you move from your mews house in SW1 into a caravan in Jaywick?" was my reply - which probably says more about me than it does about him.
I do wonder if there is a "shy reform" vote in effect, though. A lot of people secretly agreeing with Farage but being too polite to say it out loud.
It does kinda make you wonder doesn't it? Reform supposedly on 15%, we have several hundred contributors who are far more interested in politics than about 95% of the population and...we don't have anyone. We have lots of deeply disillusioned Tories, including myself but none for Reform.
Its curious.
Social anxiety. Not something I really suffer from, not these days anyway
Really? You always come across as so shy and self effacing.
I have quite a few contacts in Wantage and Didcot (Nick you will be aware because of the help you gave me on one of my campaigns which involved a lot of people from that area).
So here is some feedback from someone who lives there who is not political but who is interested in who gets elected because of the campaign (does not care who as long as they do a good job for our cause).
Leaflet count:
LD - lost count of how many Tory - 0 Labour - 0 Reform - 0 SDP (yep there is one) - 1 Green - 0
The Tory leadership contest might as well start now.
Most of the leading candidates are either ineligible or soon will be.
I'm still looking for that complete unknown who might emerge in the disastrous aftermath. There's still a handful of complete unknowns in a seat that even now is safe.
Badenoch does seem to enjoy support from a few of the higher minded types on the right like Simon Heffer and Melanie Phillips. I imagine Leon would like Giles Coren's verdict on Braverman/Patel as a bit mediocre.
I spoke to a (Green) friend on Monday and we ended up discussing politics. He was really looking forward to seeing the Tories botted out and was totally unconcerned by right wing populism and saw no reason not to be contemptuous of them because:
a) The clear majority of people support progressive parties b) Tory/Right wing voters are old and dying c) You can't control migration anyway so it's all a waste of time
I tried to dissuade him from this optimistic view and urged more scepticism but he wasn't having it.
Living in a bubble would be a good description for this person. Younger working-class people outside big cities are probably more concerned about immigration than older people living in urban areas, for example.
Actually, I would say the group that is more negatively impacted by immigration is 40-55 year old non-homeowner, who works in a non-skilled role.
This group didn't go to University, has seen a lot of competition - leading to lower wages - from immigration, didn't benefit from the house price surge, and has now been sucker punched by the inflation that has followed Covid and the Ukraine invasion. They have few, if any, savings and work in a town or small city that has largely been left behind by globalisation. They are (relatively) socially conservative.
And they feel - not without reason - that they've been fucked by globalisation and by the fact that the Conservatives/LibDems/Labour all offer some shade of the same post-1979 consensus.
This is a sizeable bunch of voters, and Boris captured them in 2019, by promising to Get Brexit done and to Level Up their towns.
What they feel has happened instead is that Brexit hasn't reduced immigration of low skilled workers and Levelling Up was cancelled.
Hence: Reform.
A group that is also completely unrepresented on PB.
Leon is the only poster of note who's said they may vote for Reform. And of course, for him, immigration is the #1 issue.
I think it is for a lot of other voters, and maybe other posters, too, but there is a cordon sanitaire around admitting you're voting for them, especially among the status seeking middle classes, which are over-represented on PB. The only person I know voting for them IRL is a red trouser wearing posho who just openly came out and said the Tories have f***ed the country and Reform are our last hope. "And when do you move from your mews house in SW1 into a caravan in Jaywick?" was my reply - which probably says more about me than it does about him.
I do wonder if there is a "shy reform" vote in effect, though. A lot of people secretly agreeing with Farage but being too polite to say it out loud.
It does kinda make you wonder doesn't it? Reform supposedly on 15%, we have several hundred contributors who are far more interested in politics than about 95% of the population and...we don't have anyone. We have lots of deeply disillusioned Tories, including myself but none for Reform.
Its curious.
It's a very right-wing party, at least if you take it seriously, and not many of the contributors are very right-wing (or indeed very left-wing).
it's not a very right wing party. Have you read much European history? Twenty years ago its policies (leaving aside unique British issues) would make it mainstream conservative/Christian Democracy in many European countries, and moderate Republican in the USA
Badenoch does seem to enjoy support from a few of the higher minded types on the right like Simon Heffer and Melanie Phillips. I imagine Leon would like Giles Coren's verdict on Braverman/Patel as a bit mediocre.
I spoke to a (Green) friend on Monday and we ended up discussing politics. He was really looking forward to seeing the Tories botted out and was totally unconcerned by right wing populism and saw no reason not to be contemptuous of them because:
a) The clear majority of people support progressive parties b) Tory/Right wing voters are old and dying c) You can't control migration anyway so it's all a waste of time
I tried to dissuade him from this optimistic view and urged more scepticism but he wasn't having it.
Living in a bubble would be a good description for this person. Younger working-class people outside big cities are probably more concerned about immigration than older people living in urban areas, for example.
Actually, I would say the group that is more negatively impacted by immigration is 40-55 year old non-homeowner, who works in a non-skilled role.
This group didn't go to University, has seen a lot of competition - leading to lower wages - from immigration, didn't benefit from the house price surge, and has now been sucker punched by the inflation that has followed Covid and the Ukraine invasion. They have few, if any, savings and work in a town or small city that has largely been left behind by globalisation. They are (relatively) socially conservative.
And they feel - not without reason - that they've been fucked by globalisation and by the fact that the Conservatives/LibDems/Labour all offer some shade of the same post-1979 consensus.
This is a sizeable bunch of voters, and Boris captured them in 2019, by promising to Get Brexit done and to Level Up their towns.
What they feel has happened instead is that Brexit hasn't reduced immigration of low skilled workers and Levelling Up was cancelled.
Hence: Reform.
The age group that had been disadvantaged by those trends doesn't begin at 40, but younger people perhaps find it harder to overcome their cognitive biases.
Interestingly some polls show Reform support by age looking like a Nike swoosh with 18-24 year olds more likely to back the party than 25-29 year olds.
People below the age of 30 are dramatically more likely to have friends who are gay or trans or non-British than people over the age 40.
That means that they find Reform's social conservatism and - how to put it - anti-immigration rhetoric very off-putting. They are also much more likely to believe in global warming, vaccines, and the like.
It's not hard to see why they don't find the Reform platform particularly enticing. And while I don't mean to be rude, I think your use of the words "cognitive biases" comes over as the kind of sneering.
Interestingly, however, they have quite centre right views on any number of things around choice and free enterprise (“side hussles”). They are fertile ground for a form of younger, fresher Tory Party if the new Labour Gvt ends up feeling a bit old fashioned and stifling, which it may. Especially if social conservatism coalesces in Reform.
Well, that's Orange Book liberalism and Cameroonism - free market and socially liberal.
Maybe it is time for small constituency multi-member constituencies with STV after all?
How many of us would have voted for “Coalition Part 2” had it been on the ballot? The Orange Book Party would be where much of the public is, and would I suspect also already have moved on from the idea of being in the EU, as such.
Badenoch does seem to enjoy support from a few of the higher minded types on the right like Simon Heffer and Melanie Phillips. I imagine Leon would like Giles Coren's verdict on Braverman/Patel as a bit mediocre.
I spoke to a (Green) friend on Monday and we ended up discussing politics. He was really looking forward to seeing the Tories botted out and was totally unconcerned by right wing populism and saw no reason not to be contemptuous of them because:
a) The clear majority of people support progressive parties b) Tory/Right wing voters are old and dying c) You can't control migration anyway so it's all a waste of time
I tried to dissuade him from this optimistic view and urged more scepticism but he wasn't having it.
Living in a bubble would be a good description for this person. Younger working-class people outside big cities are probably more concerned about immigration than older people living in urban areas, for example.
Actually, I would say the group that is more negatively impacted by immigration is 40-55 year old non-homeowner, who works in a non-skilled role.
This group didn't go to University, has seen a lot of competition - leading to lower wages - from immigration, didn't benefit from the house price surge, and has now been sucker punched by the inflation that has followed Covid and the Ukraine invasion. They have few, if any, savings and work in a town or small city that has largely been left behind by globalisation. They are (relatively) socially conservative.
And they feel - not without reason - that they've been fucked by globalisation and by the fact that the Conservatives/LibDems/Labour all offer some shade of the same post-1979 consensus.
This is a sizeable bunch of voters, and Boris captured them in 2019, by promising to Get Brexit done and to Level Up their towns.
What they feel has happened instead is that Brexit hasn't reduced immigration of low skilled workers and Levelling Up was cancelled.
Hence: Reform.
A group that is also completely unrepresented on PB.
Leon is the only poster of note who's said they may vote for Reform. And of course, for him, immigration is the #1 issue.
I think it is for a lot of other voters, and maybe other posters, too, but there is a cordon sanitaire around admitting you're voting for them, especially among the status seeking middle classes, which are over-represented on PB. The only person I know voting for them IRL is a red trouser wearing posho who just openly came out and said the Tories have f***ed the country and Reform are our last hope. "And when do you move from your mews house in SW1 into a caravan in Jaywick?" was my reply - which probably says more about me than it does about him.
I do wonder if there is a "shy reform" vote in effect, though. A lot of people secretly agreeing with Farage but being too polite to say it out loud.
It does kinda make you wonder doesn't it? Reform supposedly on 15%, we have several hundred contributors who are far more interested in politics than about 95% of the population and...we don't have anyone. We have lots of deeply disillusioned Tories, including myself but none for Reform.
Its curious.
Not sure that’s true though. William Glenn seems to be heading that way, Leon is toying with it, and I’m pretty sure LuckyGuy is already there. There may be others. Shy reformers.
For an hour or two @Sean_F toyed with it, as well, tho I believe he is now a reluctant Tory, again
If the status quo is universally expected to be smashed, isn't voting for it the true act of rebellion? (No.)
I live in a Conservative-held Tory-LibDem marginal, and I can't vote LibDem on account of then spending the last eight years trying to overturn a democratic vote, so Tory it is. I always vote, and we have no interesting independents. I suppose I could vote Labour and join the 5%.
Comments
Those who recall the wonderful "London Falling" thread from a couple of weeks ago will recall I predicted 9 seats for the Conservatives - that was around the second May Bank Holiday so before the return of Farage and Sunak's horrendous D-Day gaffe.
The YouGov MRP agrees with five of my nine Conservative "holds" (including Bromley & Biggin Hill which I advised the Conservatives at 11/8).
YouGov has the Conservatives holding Finchley & Golders Green which I presume is down to local factors. Bet365 has the Conservatives at 12/5 to win the seat so that looks incredibly good value.
Of the other Conservative "holds" I predicted, YouGov has Labour winning Harrow East 41-40 so I'm still happy with my 9/4 and topped up at 5/2.
Croydon East is 47-21 to Labour so I think my full English is cooked there.
Croydon South is 39-37 to Labour so I still have hope.
Old Bexley & Sidcup is 35-33 to Labour according to the YouGov MRP - if you think that's right, Labour at 2s with Bet 365 looks a nice play.
Elsewhere, Ruislip, Northwood & Pinner is 35-34 to the Conservatives and I'm on at 4/5 (now 4/6) so we'll see.
Romford is 35-33 to the Conservatives and I'm sitting on a 6/4 bet on the Tories
Sutton & Cheam, where I advised an 11/10 bet on the LDs (now 4/9) is 39-30 to the LDs so cautiously optimistic.
I think one of my seven bets is cooked but the other six remain very much in play.
I mean, if the Conservative Party loses the mantle of Official Opposition, it's possible.
But otherwise I think it's difficult because
(a) Badenoch / Patel / Braverman and other senior Conservatives want their shot at becoming LOO. Why would they give it up?
and
(b) if you are in a Conservative seat in the South East, and the LibDems are second... do you really want Nigel Farage as party leader? The MPs who would benefit the most (and who would be most keen) are the ones in Red Wall constituencies... and are therefore no longer MPs.
Sunak is not evil, he's inept
I'm sure Starmer will be devastated to be told he has destroyed party unity by culling the left wing, and thus will not get the support of people leaving comments in support of a former Labour member, a Green party leader, and others, even as he gallops towards a massive majority.
And, given his external opponents fear he will be very left wing indeed, really they should be pretty content.
What will be hilarious is if he manages it on less votes than Corbyn.
He won’t be relevant to the discourse of this country.
"Dad, do you think Labour's got any chance of winning this time?"
I was able to reassure her.
She's actually quite a political animal, but it just goes to show that most people are blissfully unaware of polling.
But I'm positing a Tory party in a blind panic, down to say 68 seats and with most big beasts slain in the arena
In that state they might do anything and Farage might seem like a "saviour"
Farage is an unreconstructed Thatcherite - we know he liked aspects of the Truss mini budget and is very keen on tax cuts and spending cuts.
That's not, I think, where the Reform voter base is - the immigration stuff they can agree with him but on tax and spending they want more public spending in WWC areas and were keen on the Johnsonian levelling up agenda, HS2 and other projects to bring wealth and jobs to parts of the North and Midlands.
Sunak's reversal of HS2 and the Levelling Up agenda has done for the Conservatives in the North and Midlands - Labour simply neglected the North, the Conservatives betrayed the North by reneging on the promises of the 2016 Referendum and 2019 election. This is one of the reasons Reform is doing so well in these areas.
Interestingly some polls show Reform support by age looking like a Nike swoosh with 18-24 year olds more likely to back the party than 25-29 year olds.
https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/49512-how-is-britain-voting-as-the-2024-general-election-campaign-begins
Most of their vote will be ex-Tories, I believe
I think that matters because in some cases the people making that decision might be hopeful of getting the leadership themselves and wouldn't want to invite in the guy who would instantly become the hot favourite for that job.
EIther a very bold call, or unaware of polling.
If the referendum had been: "Do you want to keep FPTP as the voting system?" with the alternative left open, you would be correct. But they did not.
For example, of all the various voting systems, I regard AV as second worst, behind closed party list PR.
But I would probably vote in favour of STV with small multimember (3-5) constituencies, as I believe it would keep the best elements of FPTP and still allow for majority governments.
Last chance for a while.
Leon is the only poster of note who's said they may vote for Reform. And of course, for him, immigration is the #1 issue.
I think it is for a lot of other voters, and maybe other posters, too, but there is a cordon sanitaire around admitting you're voting for them, especially among the status seeking middle classes, which are over-represented on PB. The only person I know voting for them IRL is a red trouser wearing posho who just openly came out and said the Tories have f***ed the country and Reform are our last hope. "And when do you move from your mews house in SW1 into a caravan in Jaywick?" was my reply - which probably says more about me than it does about him.
I do wonder if there is a "shy reform" vote in effect, though. A lot of people secretly agreeing with Farage but being too polite to say it out loud.
What’s even more drole is that the LibDems were in Government at the time. So if they didn’t like the offering to the people, they should have come up with something better.
They didn’t and it’s history. Unless, as I say, you want to re-open a Brexit referendum and an Indyref? Can’t be one rule for one referendum and different ones for the others.
Different seats too. Whitstable is a big reason Rosie retained Canterbury in 2019 even though the students in the city had largely gone home. I think Herne Bay is now “Herne Bay and Deal” or somesuch
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cz77x3e8eeyo
Sore losers.
That means that they find Reform's social conservatism and - how to put it - anti-immigration rhetoric very off-putting. They are also much more likely to believe in global warming, vaccines, and the like.
It's not hard to see why they don't find the Reform platform particularly enticing. And while I don't mean to be rude, I think your use of the words "cognitive biases" comes over as the kind of sneering.
The policeman probably walked into the bookies in uniform. Told the girl behind the counter he was on the PMs close protection team. And demanded a discount for being a copper
Of course that might split it in two.
It’s a joke.
We had the chance to change the voting system and we decided to keep the one we have.
The time to take this seriously is if the two main parties are neck-and-neck and then the tories want to change the system. Not now.
He should go to Ferrari.
Adrian Newey: Aston Martin front runners to sign F1 design guru
Lawrence Stroll, the executive chairman, is confident of bringing in the Red Bull technical supremo after he was reportedly given a private tour of the team’s Silverstone factory
https://www.thetimes.com/sport/formula-one/article/adrian-newey-talks-join-aston-martin-red-bull-kdknjwprn
I think this is entirely possible and in fact a genius move to lure other Tories into voting Reform to make it more likely.
And a couple of months later finds himself facing LOTO Farage?
I know we have remarked before that he's a lucky General, but that would have to be classed as witchcraft.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/society/trackers/the-most-important-issues-facing-the-country
And of course for all those saying "the NHS" (number 2) or "housing", our record rate of immigration is a huge underlying factor
BTW I'm really not sure I'm gonna vote Reform, I will surely vote Starmer so as to annoy and unnerve @kinabalu
See this page and the linked paper on inside information.
https://www.gamblingcommission.gov.uk/licensees-and-businesses/guide/page/what-powers-does-the-gambling-commission-have
At the very least, I'd expect the GC to instruct the bookies not to pay. The rest I'll leave to the lawyers.
At present, the UK uses the "first past the post" system to elect MPs to the House of Commons. Should the "alternative vote" system be used instead?
By two to one the British people voted to keep the existing First Past the Post System, which was named in the question, against the alternative PR that was offered.
In the early 2000s I had two friends I liked to chat with politics about in the pub, 1 was a UKIP town councillor (elected as a Tory and defected), 1 a Tory member, both in their 20s at the time so fairly unusual Gen Xers.
Both will be voting Lib Dem this time.
Policing minister’s wife reported to CPS over corporate espionage claims
Exclusive: Elizabeth Philp denies allegations that she used trade secrets gained from former employer
A leading businesswoman who is married to the policing minister, Chris Philp, has been reported to the Crown Prosecution Service (CPS) by a former employer and is being sued in the high court over allegations of corporate espionage.
Elizabeth Philp, 40, whose husband has called for “zero tolerance” to all crime, is accused of data-handling offences and unlawfully using confidential information from her former employer to set up a rival business.
She denies the allegations and is countersuing her former employer, whom she accuses of cyber-attacking the website of the company she subsequently founded.
The legal tussle centres on the departure of Philp from the London Specialist Pharmacy Group (LSPG), where she was chief executive until 2017, and the founding of her own company, Roseway Labs.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/article/2024/jun/19/policing-ministers-wife-reported-to-cps-over-corporate-espionage-claims
The focus on (illegal) immigration, combined with populist but largely unaffordable domestic and tax policies, rage against globalisation and international institutions, and a chunk of conspiracy theory shite about vaccines and the WEF etc. seems to me just to be Trumpism applied to the UK. And the target audience is very similar: disillusioned, left-behind white working class folk in the coastal areas and the UK equivalent of the rust belt.
It's almost reassuring that, thus far, this menu is less appealing in the UK than the USA. I hope it stays that way.
Hi @LukeTryl and @Moreincommon_.
The fieldwork for your ‘latest’ MRP poll began 28 days ago on the 22nd May.
Perhaps you’ve been living under a rock, but a lot has changed since then.
Your poll is misleading and amounts to election interference
Blimey hahaha
And so it is
NickNigelIt took the Tories 13 years and 4 leaders to get from 1997 to 2010, and the lesson for many Tories will be to take time in rebuilding their organisation, lots of "clause 4 moment" discussions, anguished debate about "rebuilding trust" etc. It will be a hard way back, and although 2025 may be too soon, especially since they will be defending counties where they will have lost a lot of votes. On the other hand in 2026 there will be the elections to the Scottish Parliament, and I could see a gentle recovery starting then. Farage, of course is toxic waste in Scotland.
A good quarter of the voters are still going to put their cross in the blue box, and Reform will, at the very outside, get less than half that. Reform voters will need to come back to the Tories for them to ever win, but as for the Reform UK Ltd, "party", it is a chimera that the Conservative Party would be insane to want to merge with it.
So whoever next leads the Tory Party, it will be a blood, sweat and tears programme of rebuilding, but that is far more likely than smoking the Reform waccy baccy. Of course it could be that the new leader needs to do a Militant on the Trussite, pro-Reform fraction, small though it is, but Tory expulsions are nothing new.
Its curious.
I expect the stop the steal bullshit on July 5th.
The issue is - though - that without this group, the Conservatives have no chance of government. And without the traditional shire Tories, nor does Reform. They need to find common ground, and that's something that I just don't see at the moment.
Regardless, I suspect most people who want a second PR referendum do in fact want a second Brexit referendum. (As for Indyref? I don't live in Scotland, so it's none of my business.)
The answer to your ‘And?’ is that we had a chance to change the voting system. 1. We decided to keep FPTP and 2. if the LibDems didn’t like the PR version, or the question, why the hell did they sign it off? They were in the Government.
Clue to the correct answer: Nick Clegg is a bit of a sh*t
The pivotal moment of the campaign so far was when Farage got up on stage to announce his candidacy (and leadership of Reform) and he said "we have had 2.4 million migrants in 3 years"
That's the moment when the Tories blew up and when they started sliding towards apocalypse
*innocent face*
STORY
Reform UK’s candidate in Barnsley South has denied co-founding a crypto firm branded a ‘ponzi scheme’ - despite video showing he described himself as the firm’s UK head.
Reform spokesman insists David White was just a “third party supplier” to Buddy Ex.
Asked why, then, he described himself onstage at a Thai conference for the firm’s top salespeople as “Head of Business UK and EU”, Reform implied he’d been asked to and did so out of politeness.
In his speech, Mr White says people had been asking him whether the firm was a “scam.”
Gesturing around to the glittering backdrop at the “Achievers Conclave 2023” in September, Mr White said: “Does this look like a scam?”
https://x.com/mikeysmith/status/1803478531562680628
Maybe it is time for small constituency multi-member constituencies with STV after all?
And doesn't everyone misrepresent their position out of politeness?
Reminds me of a comment around when people claim ignorance, in how convenient it is that suddenly people know nothing/are not involved, right at the point it might be criminal if they were involved.
We have a democratic system in this country. Back it for now. If you want it changed, the time is not 2 weeks before a possible landslide when one of the minor parties might try and re-enact the Capitol Hill riots. Can you imagine Tommy Robinson whipping up the English Nats in Parliament Square?
Just be careful.
By all means, return to PR a year or two before the next GE.
For @Andy_Cooke and @NickPalmer:
I have quite a few contacts in Wantage and Didcot (Nick you will be aware because of the help you gave me on one of my campaigns which involved a lot of people from that area).
So here is some feedback from someone who lives there who is not political but who is interested in who gets elected because of the campaign (does not care who as long as they do a good job for our cause).
Leaflet count:
LD - lost count of how many
Tory - 0
Labour - 0
Reform - 0
SDP (yep there is one) - 1
Green - 0
I live in a Conservative-held Tory-LibDem marginal, and I can't vote LibDem on account of then spending the last eight years trying to overturn a democratic vote, so Tory it is. I always vote, and we have no interesting independents. I suppose I could vote Labour and join the 5%.