Well the country put Boris into number 10, he was a clown. So it is hardly a surprise people would go for another clown over the incumbent.
How dire politics is today.
I Suspect Alan Bates and the Postmasters may have a different view
Do they have a view on the cascade of Tory ministers who failed to do anything about the increasingly obvious issues with the PO after 2015 and until extremely recently? Or just Davey because that’s the meme the right wing press have managed to insuinuate into the collective mind?
Please feel free to ask them. I am sure they have.
Laura K savaged him on Sunday on her politics show about it and he looked very very uncomfortable and she is hardly right wing. Her Father was a donor to the Labour Party.
My father made Genghis Khan and Attila the Hun look like namby-pamby liberals but here I am with not a jot overlap in views with my father.
I was joking and the point was the suggestion that ebike problems differentially affect lib Dems. In fact I think suggestions that weather conditions favour one party or another are bonkers. It's not like Scandinavian countries where elections have to be in summer or nobody can get to the polling station
All the confusion snipped.
Yes - I think I put a wink or a Point D'exclamation on my original reply at some point on the FPPPPT thread !
For those keeping track, my bookshop will be changing its name tomorrow. New signage is coming today! As a final clue, here (hopefully) is the sign/logo with the name removed. See what you say...
Raven Books?
There are three ravens in the picture so you're looking for the collective noun instead.
Farage set to win Clacton ‘with biggest swing in modern history’
Reform UK leader on course to get 42% in the Essex seat, a new poll suggests
Nigel Farage is on course to win the Clacton seat with the biggest swing in modern electoral history, a new poll has suggested.
The survey, commissioned by Arron Banks, a former Ukip donor, suggests that Farage will win 42 per cent of the vote in Clacton in Essex. The Tories are forecast to win 27 per cent and Labour 24 per cent.
Survation, the company that carried out the survey, said the scale of the projected swing from the Tories to Labour would be “extremely rare” and “unprecedented in modern electoral history”.
The seat has been held by Giles Watling, a Conservative, since 2017. In 2019, when Boris Johnson put Brexit at the heart of his campaign, Watling secured a 24,702 majority with 72 per cent of the vote share.
For those keeping track, my bookshop will be changing its name tomorrow. New signage is coming today! As a final clue, here (hopefully) is the sign/logo with the name removed. See what you say...
Well the country put Boris into number 10, he was a clown. So it is hardly a surprise people would go for another clown over the incumbent.
How dire politics is today.
I Suspect Alan Bates and the Postmasters may have a different view
Do they have a view on the cascade of Tory ministers who failed to do anything about the increasingly obvious issues with the PO after 2015 and until extremely recently? Or just Davey because that’s the meme the right wing press have managed to insuinuate into the collective mind?
Please feel free to ask them. I am sure they have.
Laura K savaged him on Sunday on her politics show about it and he looked very very uncomfortable and she is hardly right wing. Her Father was a donor to the Labour Party.
Yes, because good daughters ALWAYS slavishly follow the political leanings of their fathers, for fear that thinking for themselves on such matters could lead to giddiness, hysteria, and a lifetime as a spinster. That goes as much for daughters who are senior political correspondents as anyone else.
I mean, I understand Liz Truss famously only became PM to please her rabidly Tory father...
So she clearly is a right winger because online people think she is a right winger.
For those keeping track, my bookshop will be changing its name tomorrow. New signage is coming today! As a final clue, here (hopefully) is the sign/logo with the name removed. See what you say...
Well the country put Boris into number 10, he was a clown. So it is hardly a surprise people would go for another clown over the incumbent.
How dire politics is today.
I Suspect Alan Bates and the Postmasters may have a different view
Do they have a view on the cascade of Tory ministers who failed to do anything about the increasingly obvious issues with the PO after 2015 and until extremely recently? Or just Davey because that’s the meme the right wing press have managed to insuinuate into the collective mind?
Please feel free to ask them. I am sure they have.
Laura K savaged him on Sunday on her politics show about it and he looked very very uncomfortable and she is hardly right wing. Her Father was a donor to the Labour Party.
My father made Genghis Khan and Attila the Hun look like namby-pamby liberals but here I am with not a jot overlap in views with my father.
Farage set to win Clacton ‘with biggest swing in modern history’
Reform UK leader on course to get 42% in the Essex seat, a new poll suggests
Nigel Farage is on course to win the Clacton seat with the biggest swing in modern electoral history, a new poll has suggested.
The survey, commissioned by Arron Banks, a former Ukip donor, suggests that Farage will win 42 per cent of the vote in Clacton in Essex. The Tories are forecast to win 27 per cent and Labour 24 per cent.
Survation, the company that carried out the survey, said the scale of the projected swing from the Tories to Labour would be “extremely rare” and “unprecedented in modern electoral history”.
The seat has been held by Giles Watling, a Conservative, since 2017. In 2019, when Boris Johnson put Brexit at the heart of his campaign, Watling secured a 24,702 majority with 72 per cent of the vote share.
Well the country put Boris into number 10, he was a clown. So it is hardly a surprise people would go for another clown over the incumbent.
How dire politics is today.
I Suspect Alan Bates and the Postmasters may have a different view
Do they have a view on the cascade of Tory ministers who failed to do anything about the increasingly obvious issues with the PO after 2015 and until extremely recently? Or just Davey because that’s the meme the right wing press have managed to insuinuate into the collective mind?
Please feel free to ask them. I am sure they have.
Laura K savaged him on Sunday on her politics show about it and he looked very very uncomfortable and she is hardly right wing. Her Father was a donor to the Labour Party.
If Davey gets proper savaged at the inquiry on 18 July his election jolly japery is going to look retrospectively very poor
If he wears a wetsuit I’m sure Sir Jason will be entirely disarmed.
He will go into it with the benefit of having been asked pretty searching questions about the subject more times than the entire Tory front bench or any other minister with responsibility for the Post Office.
His best bet is to be honest and open about the whole thing and provide as much useful information as possible, even if some of it reflects on him badly. The biggest criticism is that he was insufficiently curious at the time, and too easily fobbed off by the PO. But subsequent Tory ministers knew exactly what was going on, had piles of evidence building up by the day, and repeatedly delayed and obfuscated.
Farage set to win Clacton ‘with biggest swing in modern history’
Reform UK leader on course to get 42% in the Essex seat, a new poll suggests
Nigel Farage is on course to win the Clacton seat with the biggest swing in modern electoral history, a new poll has suggested.
The survey, commissioned by Arron Banks, a former Ukip donor, suggests that Farage will win 42 per cent of the vote in Clacton in Essex. The Tories are forecast to win 27 per cent and Labour 24 per cent.
Survation, the company that carried out the survey, said the scale of the projected swing from the Tories to Labour would be “extremely rare” and “unprecedented in modern electoral history”.
The seat has been held by Giles Watling, a Conservative, since 2017. In 2019, when Boris Johnson put Brexit at the heart of his campaign, Watling secured a 24,702 majority with 72 per cent of the vote share.
For those keeping track, my bookshop will be changing its name tomorrow. New signage is coming today! As a final clue, here (hopefully) is the sign/logo with the name removed. See what you say...
Starmer beats Farage by 2:1 in a head to head, too. PB extremely right wing people please explain!
It doesn't matter who Green or LD voters prefer. As I said earlier all that matters for Farage is his popularity in the rightmost 35%.
E.g. in the cross tabs Farage wins 40-38 for 2019 Con, while Sunak wins 63-3 among 2019 LDs
I wonder what Thatcher's popularity was in her early years as PM, or indeed before or after
I know she is now regularly cited (correctly) as the greatest politician since Cromwell but I sense she was also quite Marmite-y
Before PB has an aneurysm I am not comparing Farage to Thatcher in "quality", she was a genius, he is a chancer (but good at it). I am making the point that "popularity" has fuck all to do with winning or being good. I mean - Gareth Southgate????
Well the country put Boris into number 10, he was a clown. So it is hardly a surprise people would go for another clown over the incumbent.
How dire politics is today.
I Suspect Alan Bates and the Postmasters may have a different view
Do they have a view on the cascade of Tory ministers who failed to do anything about the increasingly obvious issues with the PO after 2015 and until extremely recently? Or just Davey because that’s the meme the right wing press have managed to insuinuate into the collective mind?
Please feel free to ask them. I am sure they have.
Laura K savaged him on Sunday on her politics show about it and he looked very very uncomfortable and she is hardly right wing. Her Father was a donor to the Labour Party.
Yes, because good daughters ALWAYS slavishly follow the political leanings of their fathers, for fear that thinking for themselves on such matters could lead to giddiness, hysteria, and a lifetime as a spinster. That goes as much for daughters who are senior political correspondents as anyone else.
I mean, I understand Liz Truss famously only became PM to please her rabidly Tory father...
So she clearly is a right winger because online people think she is a right winger.
With no evidence.
You, an online person, started this by asking us to assume she is hardly right wing, with no evidence. Unsurprisingly not everyone concurs.
Well the country put Boris into number 10, he was a clown. So it is hardly a surprise people would go for another clown over the incumbent.
How dire politics is today.
I Suspect Alan Bates and the Postmasters may have a different view
Do they have a view on the cascade of Tory ministers who failed to do anything about the increasingly obvious issues with the PO after 2015 and until extremely recently? Or just Davey because that’s the meme the right wing press have managed to insuinuate into the collective mind?
Please feel free to ask them. I am sure they have.
Laura K savaged him on Sunday on her politics show about it and he looked very very uncomfortable and she is hardly right wing. Her Father was a donor to the Labour Party.
Yes, because good daughters ALWAYS slavishly follow the political leanings of their fathers, for fear that thinking for themselves on such matters could lead to giddiness, hysteria, and a lifetime as a spinster. That goes as much for daughters who are senior political correspondents as anyone else.
I mean, I understand Liz Truss famously only became PM to please her rabidly Tory father...
So she clearly is a right winger because online people think she is a right winger.
For those keeping track, my bookshop will be changing its name tomorrow. New signage is coming today! As a final clue, here (hopefully) is the sign/logo with the name removed. See what you say...
Farage set to win Clacton ‘with biggest swing in modern history’
Reform UK leader on course to get 42% in the Essex seat, a new poll suggests
Nigel Farage is on course to win the Clacton seat with the biggest swing in modern electoral history, a new poll has suggested.
The survey, commissioned by Arron Banks, a former Ukip donor, suggests that Farage will win 42 per cent of the vote in Clacton in Essex. The Tories are forecast to win 27 per cent and Labour 24 per cent.
Survation, the company that carried out the survey, said the scale of the projected swing from the Tories to Labour would be “extremely rare” and “unprecedented in modern electoral history”.
The seat has been held by Giles Watling, a Conservative, since 2017. In 2019, when Boris Johnson put Brexit at the heart of his campaign, Watling secured a 24,702 majority with 72 per cent of the vote share.
I cannot work out why you are applauding a party of Putin shills doing well.
Why do you assume he is against Putin?
Cause Putin just spent two weeks trying to kill me in Odessa and Kyiv. Literally. And came quite close on a couple of occasions - I have the videos to show for it
I was joking and the point was the suggestion that ebike problems differentially affect lib Dems. In fact I think suggestions that weather conditions favour one party or another are bonkers. It's not like Scandinavian countries where elections have to be in summer or nobody can get to the polling station
All the confusion snipped.
Yes - I think I put a wink or a Point D'exclamation on my original reply at some point on the FPPPPT thread !
Farage set to win Clacton ‘with biggest swing in modern history’
Reform UK leader on course to get 42% in the Essex seat, a new poll suggests
Nigel Farage is on course to win the Clacton seat with the biggest swing in modern electoral history, a new poll has suggested.
The survey, commissioned by Arron Banks, a former Ukip donor, suggests that Farage will win 42 per cent of the vote in Clacton in Essex. The Tories are forecast to win 27 per cent and Labour 24 per cent.
Survation, the company that carried out the survey, said the scale of the projected swing from the Tories to Labour would be “extremely rare” and “unprecedented in modern electoral history”.
The seat has been held by Giles Watling, a Conservative, since 2017. In 2019, when Boris Johnson put Brexit at the heart of his campaign, Watling secured a 24,702 majority with 72 per cent of the vote share.
I cannot work out why you are applauding a party of Putin shills doing well.
Why do you assume he is against Putin?
Cause Putin just spent two weeks trying to kill me in Odessa and Kyiv. Literally. And came quite close on a couple of occasions - I have the videos to show for it
Well the country put Boris into number 10, he was a clown. So it is hardly a surprise people would go for another clown over the incumbent.
How dire politics is today.
I Suspect Alan Bates and the Postmasters may have a different view
Do they have a view on the cascade of Tory ministers who failed to do anything about the increasingly obvious issues with the PO after 2015 and until extremely recently? Or just Davey because that’s the meme the right wing press have managed to insuinuate into the collective mind?
Please feel free to ask them. I am sure they have.
Laura K savaged him on Sunday on her politics show about it and he looked very very uncomfortable and she is hardly right wing. Her Father was a donor to the Labour Party.
Yes, because good daughters ALWAYS slavishly follow the political leanings of their fathers, for fear that thinking for themselves on such matters could lead to giddiness, hysteria, and a lifetime as a spinster. That goes as much for daughters who are senior political correspondents as anyone else.
I mean, I understand Liz Truss famously only became PM to please her rabidly Tory father...
So she clearly is a right winger because online people think she is a right winger.
With no evidence.
To be fair to her I think she has reined it in recently. She is getting better at the impartiality, and her show is generally enjoyable. To reuse the hardly term, I'm hardly a Corbynista but I've had to double-take several times over the years after she has said something - for example that time when she ended an interview with Yvette Cooper with "well there are plenty of people who would disagree with you, but you have made Labour's position clear" after closing with a Tory minister on the same programme with something along the lines of "great to speak as always, thanks for making time to come on the show", or when she was pushing the line that the London Mayoral election was on a knife edge based on one or two overenthusiastic Tory activists.
She needs to be more sceptical of the lines she gets fed by Conservative sources. I think that's been the issue.
For those keeping track, my bookshop will be changing its name tomorrow. New signage is coming today! As a final clue, here (hopefully) is the sign/logo with the name removed. See what you say...
Raven Books?
Crow Rd Books...
Well done, sir!
The Crow Road in Glasgow (on which the title of Banks’ book is at least partly based) is a rather horrible commuter rat run a lot of the time. I like your version better.
Some of you bang on and on and on about Ukraine and the evil that is Putin. And how I am a fucking appeaser and a putinist shill and yet - weirdly - I am the only one who has watched from my hotel balcony as he tried to drone me to death. And then sent a missile two days later which shook my whole block
Some of you bang on and on and on about Ukraine and the evil that is Putin. And how I am a fucking appeaser and a putinist shill and yet - weirdly - I am the only one who has watched from my hotel balcony as he tried to drone me to death. And then sent a missile two days later which shook my whole block
Another data point suggesting climate sensitivity to CO2 levels is quite a bit higher than the model we're basing policy on.
Continuous sterane and phytane δ13C record reveals a substantial pCO2 decline since the mid-Miocene https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-47676-9 Constraining the relationship between temperature and atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (pCO2) is essential to model near-future climate. Here, we reconstruct pCO2 values over the past 15 million years (Myr), providing a series of analogues for possible near-future temperatures and pCO2, from a single continuous site (DSDP Site 467, California coast). We reconstruct pCO2 values using sterane and phytane, compounds that many phytoplankton produce and then become fossilised in sediment. From 15.0-0.3 Myr ago, our reconstructed pCO2 values steadily decline from 650 ± 150 to 280 ± 75 ppmv, mirroring global temperature decline. Using our new range of pCO2 values, we calculate average Earth system sensitivity and equilibrium climate sensitivity, resulting in 13.9 °C and 7.2 °C per doubling of pCO2, respectively. These values are significantly higher than IPCC global warming estimations, consistent or higher than some recent state-of-the-art climate models, and consistent with other proxy-based estimates...
@RochdalePioneers I see you are doing a cracking job of ensuring your competition is nobbled. Two more to go. Just remember if the Tory/SNP candidate falls under a steam roller the election is deferred and you don't win by default.
I was interested if this was actually true (spoiler: it is, well unless it's a very light steam roller) and for anyone else who may be the rules on death during the campaign can be found here. They're rather biased against independents tbh.
Very different to the US where notoriously dead people have been voted into power before.
Some of you bang on and on and on about Ukraine and the evil that is Putin. And how I am a fucking appeaser and a putinist shill and yet - weirdly - I am the only one who has watched from my hotel balcony as he tried to drone me to death. And then sent a missile two days later which shook my whole block
I think most reasonable PBers think you WERE a fucking appeaser and a putinist shill, but you’re not now.
lol
Right I can't spend all day chatting with cowering peacenicks, yellowbellies and chicken-shit armchair warriors, I have things to do. Like: stuff myself with oysters and Sancerre at Sheekey's with my friend the SAS veteran who has also been to Ukraine, we're gonna talk about WAR
@RochdalePioneers I see you are doing a cracking job of ensuring your competition is nobbled. Two more to go. Just remember if the Tory/SNP candidate falls under a steam roller the election is deferred and you don't win by default.
I was interested if this was actually true (spoiler: it is, well unless it's a very light steam roller) and for anyone else who may be the rules on death during the campaign can be found here. They're rather biased against independents tbh.
Very different to the US where notoriously dead people have been voted into power before.
Some of you bang on and on and on about Ukraine and the evil that is Putin. And how I am a fucking appeaser and a putinist shill and yet - weirdly - I am the only one who has watched from my hotel balcony as he tried to drone me to death. And then sent a missile two days later which shook my whole block
If you really want to be a professional writer, stop moaning on PB. stop staring at the drizzle in Aberdeen, get off your sessile butt and go and DO SOMETHING - there is no substitute for actual life and experience - the more extreme the better, in general
If Reform do land a few seats in the East does this and the obvious geographical pattern of the Brexit vote start to become a self-fulfilling prophesy as it has done in America?
I wrote earlier that Trump is in the mould of a post-colonial populist leader. Someone motivated by patronage for his clan or tribe, who seeks power for personal and family reasons and as a source of wealth and/or criminal immunity.
He can do that because the USA has started to split into mutually exclusive in- and out-groups, a form of tribalism or factionalism we more commonly associate with former colonial countries or regions like the Balkans and Northern Ireland. People move deliberately to homes and jobs in blue or red areas. Their children go to liberal or conservative schools, liberal or conservative churches, they watch liberal or conservative TV channels, there are even liberal or conservative employers. So what was once just a political divide starts to become a geographical and cultural one. How far that centrifugal force can keep going is unclear. Could it end up with civil war and actual partition, or fizzle out, or something in between?
We don't have that in the UK but I fear we have the beginnings of it. We have political echo chambers and social media bubbles. We now have quite defined political regions. Will liberal families start shunning regions where Reform are in power or right-wingers steer clear of woke metropolitan places? This pattern has always been there in British geography but I don't think it's ever happened through positive decision making (at least outside NI), it's simply been a dependent variable of socio-economic patterns. We've had it in ethnic and national groups, as happens everywhere, but not in political leanings.
@RochdalePioneers I see you are doing a cracking job of ensuring your competition is nobbled. Two more to go. Just remember if the Tory/SNP candidate falls under a steam roller the election is deferred and you don't win by default.
I was interested if this was actually true (spoiler: it is, well unless it's a very light steam roller) and for anyone else who may be the rules on death during the campaign can be found here. They're rather biased against independents tbh.
Very different to the US where notoriously dead people have been voted into power before.
Here it's just the self-effacing dead ?
Good catch but I think you should be impressed a fictional and presumably extinct dinosaur is capable of communicating at all, never mind grammar and words and all that
Some of you bang on and on and on about Ukraine and the evil that is Putin. And how I am a fucking appeaser and a putinist shill and yet - weirdly - I am the only one who has watched from my hotel balcony as he tried to drone me to death. And then sent a missile two days later which shook my whole block
If you really want to be a professional writer, stop moaning on PB. stop staring at the drizzle in Aberdeen, get off your sessile butt and go and DO SOMETHING - there is no substitute for actual life and experience - the more extreme the better, in general
That's honest advice!
But most of all, if you want to follow Leon's example, don't do a bloody thing except trying to provoke people into responding to you on this site.
I suppose I have to admit he succeeded in provoking me this time.
Chris Sutton's prediction on the Netherlands v France match is hysterical about his own broken nose with a dollop of near legendary modesty
We are waiting to see if Kylian Mbappe plays with his broken nose. I am no medical expert - I can't be an expert at everything - but my diagnosis is that it probably comes down to how sore it is.
Patrick Vieira broke my nose once – he elbowed me off the ball at a corner when I was playing for Blackburn in 1998. I went down and when I looked up he was laughing at me while my eyes were pouring with water.
Then I tried to take retribution by going in two-footed on him, missed… and got a straight red card. As I got up, I saw the ref waving the red card at me and Emmanuel Petit pushed me over and I landed on my nose again. It was a terrible few minutes for me.
I reckon I would have been able to play with my broken nose, but not that particular day because I was sent off.
As for the game? I just cannot see past France, really.
I quite liked the way the Netherlands played against Poland, but France will still probably edge past them. It is what they do.
David Herdson is correct. If Reform is plainly the rising party (and both Farage and Reform have better favourability ratings than Sunak and the Conservatives), many party activists will go over to them - because there would be no point to the Conservatives, any longer.
For those keeping track, my bookshop will be changing its name tomorrow. New signage is coming today! As a final clue, here (hopefully) is the sign/logo with the name removed. See what you say...
An Unkindness of Ravens? A Murder of Crows? A Parliament of Rooks?
Another data point suggesting climate sensitivity to CO2 levels is quite a bit higher than the model we're basing policy on.
Continuous sterane and phytane δ13C record reveals a substantial pCO2 decline since the mid-Miocene https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-47676-9 Constraining the relationship between temperature and atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (pCO2) is essential to model near-future climate. Here, we reconstruct pCO2 values over the past 15 million years (Myr), providing a series of analogues for possible near-future temperatures and pCO2, from a single continuous site (DSDP Site 467, California coast). We reconstruct pCO2 values using sterane and phytane, compounds that many phytoplankton produce and then become fossilised in sediment. From 15.0-0.3 Myr ago, our reconstructed pCO2 values steadily decline from 650 ± 150 to 280 ± 75 ppmv, mirroring global temperature decline. Using our new range of pCO2 values, we calculate average Earth system sensitivity and equilibrium climate sensitivity, resulting in 13.9 °C and 7.2 °C per doubling of pCO2, respectively. These values are significantly higher than IPCC global warming estimations, consistent or higher than some recent state-of-the-art climate models, and consistent with other proxy-based estimates...
If my vague understanding of that lot is correct, it looks like more warming is baked in as we're now at the CO2 levels of ~ 10 million years ago or so.
@Alex_Stafford It's one thing betraying your principles, but another to throw your friends under a bus. The population of the Ninth Circle has increased today.
Understand this is in reference to a letter delivered in constituencies from Natalie Elphicke trashing the Rwanda scheme, criticising Rishi Sunak, and describing Keir Starmer as a “patriot”.
For those keeping track, my bookshop will be changing its name tomorrow. New signage is coming today! As a final clue, here (hopefully) is the sign/logo with the name removed. See what you say...
An Unkindness of Ravens? A Parliament of Rooks? A Murder of Crows?
I was going for Corvid 19 but couldn’t find the other 16 crows in the picture.
@RochdalePioneers I see you are doing a cracking job of ensuring your competition is nobbled. Two more to go. Just remember if the Tory/SNP candidate falls under a steam roller the election is deferred and you don't win by default.
I was interested if this was actually true (spoiler: it is, well unless it's a very light steam roller) and for anyone else who may be the rules on death during the campaign can be found here. They're rather biased against independents tbh.
Very different to the US where notoriously dead people have been voted into power before.
Yep, been there done that. Well not died obviously, but been involved in elections where a candidate has died.
Good afternoon. Someone, I think @Andy_JS was saying this morning that Labour have been sliding, and this was @Leon’s argument a few days ago.
And so it seemed.
Yet, in the most recent 4 opinion polls their vote share has gone up in three and stayed the same in one. They haven’t been below 40% in the last 10 opinion polls.
I write this because I’m genuinely surprised. What will happen with the YouGov MRP, which last had them on 37%? And how fresh will their data be? As @TSE has pointed out, last time their MRPs deteriorated in reliability the closer to the vote we came.
Some of you bang on and on and on about Ukraine and the evil that is Putin. And how I am a fucking appeaser and a putinist shill and yet - weirdly - I am the only one who has watched from my hotel balcony as he tried to drone me to death. And then sent a missile two days later which shook my whole block
You see, the post highlights your problem. It's not about Ukraine. It's not about Putin. It's about you. "watched from my hotel balcony as he tried to drone me to death".
Yes, Putin was personally targeting you.
You don't travel to observe; you don't travel to learn. You travel to brag. To boast.
And no thoughts for the people who have been hurt in these attacks. Because it's about you.
Farage set to win Clacton ‘with biggest swing in modern history’
Reform UK leader on course to get 42% in the Essex seat, a new poll suggests
Nigel Farage is on course to win the Clacton seat with the biggest swing in modern electoral history, a new poll has suggested.
The survey, commissioned by Arron Banks, a former Ukip donor, suggests that Farage will win 42 per cent of the vote in Clacton in Essex. The Tories are forecast to win 27 per cent and Labour 24 per cent.
Survation, the company that carried out the survey, said the scale of the projected swing from the Tories to Labour would be “extremely rare” and “unprecedented in modern electoral history”.
The seat has been held by Giles Watling, a Conservative, since 2017. In 2019, when Boris Johnson put Brexit at the heart of his campaign, Watling secured a 24,702 majority with 72 per cent of the vote share.
I am increasingly confident that the LibDems are going to come second. There are decreasing numbers of polls keeping them in 3 digits, and even those show that they are just about clinging onto a stack of seats. Expect the tactical vote to doom them in those as well.
What's your genie's plan for dealing with the SNP candidate?
He's crowing about how the SNP Manifesto makes it clear that the GE is a vote for independence.
Not only is this absurd, it shows how SNP MPs will behave at Westminster. Forget about working cross party and cross government as I am proposing, he will shout at all the evil unionists who don;'t give Scotland independence now.
We need an MP who gets things done. The Tories have failed. The SNP don't care about investment or public services, its just independence. Or make your voices heard and vote for a fair deal with the LibDems...
Rather reminiscent of the election campaign speeches in the Jeeves or the Gervase Fen novels (and none the worse for it). In the latter of which the Professor suddenly finds himself no longer the outsider but the front-runner.
Farage set to win Clacton ‘with biggest swing in modern history’
Reform UK leader on course to get 42% in the Essex seat, a new poll suggests
Nigel Farage is on course to win the Clacton seat with the biggest swing in modern electoral history, a new poll has suggested.
The survey, commissioned by Arron Banks, a former Ukip donor, suggests that Farage will win 42 per cent of the vote in Clacton in Essex. The Tories are forecast to win 27 per cent and Labour 24 per cent.
Survation, the company that carried out the survey, said the scale of the projected swing from the Tories to Labour would be “extremely rare” and “unprecedented in modern electoral history”.
The seat has been held by Giles Watling, a Conservative, since 2017. In 2019, when Boris Johnson put Brexit at the heart of his campaign, Watling secured a 24,702 majority with 72 per cent of the vote share.
Some of you bang on and on and on about Ukraine and the evil that is Putin. And how I am a fucking appeaser and a putinist shill and yet - weirdly - I am the only one who has watched from my hotel balcony as he tried to drone me to death. And then sent a missile two days later which shook my whole block
You see, the post highlights your problem. It's not about Ukraine. It's not about Putin. It's about you. "watched from my hotel balcony as he tried to drone me to death".
Yes, Putin was personally targeting you.
You don't travel to observe; you don't travel to learn. You travel to brag. To boast.
And no thoughts for the people who have been hurt in these attacks. Because it's about you.
Have you been there to report on the situation so that people back in the west understand the dire state of affairs, the bombs and missiles and endless power cuts, because you yourself experienced it, alongside them?
No. You haven’t. Because you are apparently a house husband who stays at home to look after the “little un” who must by now be the biggest “little un” in the history of reproduction, and is probably wondering why he looks so much like the Ocado delivery driver
For those keeping track, my bookshop will be changing its name tomorrow. New signage is coming today! As a final clue, here (hopefully) is the sign/logo with the name removed. See what you say...
An Unkindness of Ravens? A Murder of Crows? A Parliament of Rooks?
Some of you bang on and on and on about Ukraine and the evil that is Putin. And how I am a fucking appeaser and a putinist shill and yet - weirdly - I am the only one who has watched from my hotel balcony as he tried to drone me to death. And then sent a missile two days later which shook my whole block
I think most reasonable PBers think you WERE a fucking appeaser and a putinist shill, but you’re not now.
lol
Right I can't spend all day chatting with cowering peacenicks, yellowbellies and chicken-shit armchair warriors, I have things to do. Like: stuff myself with oysters and Sancerre at Sheekey's with my friend the SAS veteran who has also been to Ukraine, we're gonna talk about WAR
It's a guy thing. You wouldn't understand
Why do you come on here and slag everyone off? You’re not better than we are. There are people on board here who have led such interesting lives, done amazing things, held down challenging careers. Some of them have also succeeded in probably the greatest challenge: they have been great mums and dads, husbands and wives, and carers of people.
Decent people from all walks of life who present a rich kaleidoscope to this forum.
I don’t want to return your invective but you really aren’t better than most people on this forum. You’re a lot worse.
Some of you bang on and on and on about Ukraine and the evil that is Putin. And how I am a fucking appeaser and a putinist shill and yet - weirdly - I am the only one who has watched from my hotel balcony as he tried to drone me to death. And then sent a missile two days later which shook my whole block
I think most reasonable PBers think you WERE a fucking appeaser and a putinist shill, but you’re not now.
lol
Right I can't spend all day chatting with cowering peacenicks, yellowbellies and chicken-shit armchair warriors, I have things to do. Like: stuff myself with oysters and Sancerre at Sheekey's with my friend the SAS veteran who has also been to Ukraine, we're gonna talk about WAR
It's a guy thing. You wouldn't understand
Why do you come on here and slag everyone off? You’re not better than we are. There are people on board here who have led such interesting lives, done amazing things, held down challenging careers. Some of them have also succeeded in probably the greatest challenge: they have been great mums and dads, husbands and wives, and carers of people.
Decent people from all walks of life who present a rich kaleidoscope to this forum.
I don’t want to return your invective but you really aren’t better than most people on this forum. You’re a lot worse.
Every MRP is giving different results, but it would be interesting to average them all out and see if that approximates the final result, a bit like using polling averages with normal polls.
For those keeping track, my bookshop will be changing its name tomorrow. New signage is coming today! As a final clue, here (hopefully) is the sign/logo with the name removed. See what you say...
An Unkindness of Ravens? A Murder of Crows? A Parliament of Rooks?
Some of you bang on and on and on about Ukraine and the evil that is Putin. And how I am a fucking appeaser and a putinist shill and yet - weirdly - I am the only one who has watched from my hotel balcony as he tried to drone me to death. And then sent a missile two days later which shook my whole block
I think most reasonable PBers think you WERE a fucking appeaser and a putinist shill, but you’re not now.
lol
Right I can't spend all day chatting with cowering peacenicks, yellowbellies and chicken-shit armchair warriors, I have things to do. Like: stuff myself with oysters and Sancerre at Sheekey's with my friend the SAS veteran who has also been to Ukraine, we're gonna talk about WAR
It's a guy thing. You wouldn't understand
Why do you come on here and slag everyone off? You’re not better than we are. There are people on board here who have led such interesting lives, done amazing things, held down challenging careers. Some of them have also succeeded in probably the greatest challenge: they have been great mums and dads, husbands and wives, and carers of people.
Decent people from all walks of life who present a rich kaleidoscope to this forum.
I don’t want to return your invective but you really aren’t better than most people on this forum. You’re a lot worse.
Some of you bang on and on and on about Ukraine and the evil that is Putin. And how I am a fucking appeaser and a putinist shill and yet - weirdly - I am the only one who has watched from my hotel balcony as he tried to drone me to death. And then sent a missile two days later which shook my whole block
I think most reasonable PBers think you WERE a fucking appeaser and a putinist shill, but you’re not now.
lol
Right I can't spend all day chatting with cowering peacenicks, yellowbellies and chicken-shit armchair warriors, I have things to do. Like: stuff myself with oysters and Sancerre at Sheekey's with my friend the SAS veteran who has also been to Ukraine, we're gonna talk about WAR
It's a guy thing. You wouldn't understand
Why do you come on here and slag everyone off?
He enjoys confrontation, of course.
If we're not prepared (for example) to take seriously enough the risible Farage, and won't debate his threadbare prospectus, then swapping insults is next best thing.
The last more in Common MRP had 43 29 as the headline figures (highest Tory share of the campaign), their latest has it 41 25, so will be interesting to see both figures (and if once again MRP exceeds regular poll) and what it does to the almost now fanciful 180 seats for Tories!
Every MRP is giving different results, but it would be interesting to average them all out and see if that approximates the final result, a bit like using polling averages with normal polls.
I was initially dismissive but then, well, why not? It would certainly be interesting.
Some of you bang on and on and on about Ukraine and the evil that is Putin. And how I am a fucking appeaser and a putinist shill and yet - weirdly - I am the only one who has watched from my hotel balcony as he tried to drone me to death. And then sent a missile two days later which shook my whole block
You see, the post highlights your problem. It's not about Ukraine. It's not about Putin. It's about you. "watched from my hotel balcony as he tried to drone me to death".
Yes, Putin was personally targeting you.
You don't travel to observe; you don't travel to learn. You travel to brag. To boast.
And no thoughts for the people who have been hurt in these attacks. Because it's about you.
Have you been there to report on the situation so that people back in the west understand the dire state of affairs, the bombs and missiles and endless power cuts, because you yourself experienced it, alongside them?
No. You haven’t. Because you are apparently a house husband who stays at home to look after the “little un” who must by now be the biggest “little un” in the history of reproduction, and is probably wondering why he looks so much like the Ocado delivery driver
No. But I don't believe you go in there to 'report on the situation'. You don't. I see no chats with the everyman on the street; no insight. All I see is "Phwah! Look at the pretty girls!"
As for your last sentence. Fuck off, Seriously. I know you find it impossible to hold down relationships, but most other people - and posters - do. You might want to consider why that is before you shit over other people's relationships.
Farage set to win Clacton ‘with biggest swing in modern history’
Reform UK leader on course to get 42% in the Essex seat, a new poll suggests
Nigel Farage is on course to win the Clacton seat with the biggest swing in modern electoral history, a new poll has suggested.
The survey, commissioned by Arron Banks, a former Ukip donor, suggests that Farage will win 42 per cent of the vote in Clacton in Essex. The Tories are forecast to win 27 per cent and Labour 24 per cent.
Survation, the company that carried out the survey, said the scale of the projected swing from the Tories to Labour would be “extremely rare” and “unprecedented in modern electoral history”.
The seat has been held by Giles Watling, a Conservative, since 2017. In 2019, when Boris Johnson put Brexit at the heart of his campaign, Watling secured a 24,702 majority with 72 per cent of the vote share.
It's time for Labour to adopt LD tactics, reference this swing and appeal to Clacton Tories for their vote. "Only Labour can stop Farage."
Is it obvious Labour would prefer Farage not to be an MP?
Some people on here think Labour would prefer to have the Tories on around 90-100 seats, so they can be a weakened opposition, but potentially stave off Reform.
I think ideally Labour would much prefer Lib Dems as the opposition and Reform and the Tories 3rd/4th in whichever order. Infighting on the right may make it harder for them on 2029, and if the LDs are 2nd place, it might make it easier for them to get closer alignment with the EU for example which the Labour front bench probably wish they could make electorally palatable.
Another data point suggesting climate sensitivity to CO2 levels is quite a bit higher than the model we're basing policy on.
Continuous sterane and phytane δ13C record reveals a substantial pCO2 decline since the mid-Miocene https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-47676-9 Constraining the relationship between temperature and atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (pCO2) is essential to model near-future climate. Here, we reconstruct pCO2 values over the past 15 million years (Myr), providing a series of analogues for possible near-future temperatures and pCO2, from a single continuous site (DSDP Site 467, California coast). We reconstruct pCO2 values using sterane and phytane, compounds that many phytoplankton produce and then become fossilised in sediment. From 15.0-0.3 Myr ago, our reconstructed pCO2 values steadily decline from 650 ± 150 to 280 ± 75 ppmv, mirroring global temperature decline. Using our new range of pCO2 values, we calculate average Earth system sensitivity and equilibrium climate sensitivity, resulting in 13.9 °C and 7.2 °C per doubling of pCO2, respectively. These values are significantly higher than IPCC global warming estimations, consistent or higher than some recent state-of-the-art climate models, and consistent with other proxy-based estimates...
If my vague understanding of that lot is correct, it looks like more warming is baked in as we're now at the CO2 levels of ~ 10 million years ago or so.
We need to litter the planet with CCUS plants quickly, IMHO, and use carbon taxes to pay for it. Create a market.
Farage set to win Clacton ‘with biggest swing in modern history’
Reform UK leader on course to get 42% in the Essex seat, a new poll suggests
Nigel Farage is on course to win the Clacton seat with the biggest swing in modern electoral history, a new poll has suggested.
The survey, commissioned by Arron Banks, a former Ukip donor, suggests that Farage will win 42 per cent of the vote in Clacton in Essex. The Tories are forecast to win 27 per cent and Labour 24 per cent.
Survation, the company that carried out the survey, said the scale of the projected swing from the Tories to Labour would be “extremely rare” and “unprecedented in modern electoral history”.
The seat has been held by Giles Watling, a Conservative, since 2017. In 2019, when Boris Johnson put Brexit at the heart of his campaign, Watling secured a 24,702 majority with 72 per cent of the vote share.
I cannot work out why you are applauding a party of Putin shills doing well.
Why do you assume he is against Putin?
Cause Putin just spent two weeks trying to kill me in Odessa and Kyiv. Literally. And came quite close on a couple of occasions - I have the videos to show for it
That tends to focus the mind
Rarely has there been a mind more in need of being focused, than yours.
Every MRP is giving different results, but it would be interesting to average them all out and see if that approximates the final result, a bit like using polling averages with normal polls.
I was initially dismissive but then, well, why not? It would certainly be interesting.
Just an experiment really. Might not come to anything.
It would appear that I now have interviews with BBC and Sky News lined up tomorrow…
I know we often disagree, but good luck in both the interviews and the election. The thought of being interviewed is enough, by itself, to put me off being a prospective MP!
Comments
Yes - I think I put a wink or a Point D'exclamation on my original reply at some point on the FPPPPT thread !
ATB whatever you do.
And my very best wishes to Unkindness Books.
This polling shows Reform will win seats at the election.
I think many people are going to be surprised on July 4th.
If you vote Reform, you get Reform.
I really really think today’s YouGov MRP might be a stunner.
Farage on 42, Tories 27 in clacton
With no evidence.
His best bet is to be honest and open about the whole thing and provide as much useful information as possible, even if some of it reflects on him badly. The biggest criticism is that he was insufficiently curious at the time, and too easily fobbed off by the PO. But subsequent Tory ministers knew exactly what was going on, had piles of evidence building up by the day, and repeatedly delayed and obfuscated.
You'll empathise with Homelander's intimations of mortality.
I know she is now regularly cited (correctly) as the greatest politician since Cromwell but I sense she was also quite Marmite-y
Before PB has an aneurysm I am not comparing Farage to Thatcher in "quality", she was a genius, he is a chancer (but good at it). I am making the point that "popularity" has fuck all to do with winning or being good. I mean - Gareth Southgate????
That tends to focus the mind
That would scare him shitless. On several levels.
She needs to be more sceptical of the lines she gets fed by Conservative sources. I think that's been the issue.
https://i.imgur.com/amZTU6B.mp4
Listen to it with audio on HIGH
So I’ll take no more lessons on that, thanks
Continuous sterane and phytane δ13C record reveals a substantial pCO2 decline since the mid-Miocene
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-47676-9
Constraining the relationship between temperature and atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (pCO2) is essential to model near-future climate. Here, we reconstruct pCO2 values over the past 15 million years (Myr), providing a series of analogues for possible near-future temperatures and pCO2, from a single continuous site (DSDP Site 467, California coast). We reconstruct pCO2 values using sterane and phytane, compounds that many phytoplankton produce and then become fossilised in sediment. From 15.0-0.3 Myr ago, our reconstructed pCO2 values steadily decline from 650 ± 150 to 280 ± 75 ppmv, mirroring global temperature decline. Using our new range of pCO2 values, we calculate average Earth system sensitivity and equilibrium climate sensitivity, resulting in 13.9 °C and 7.2 °C per doubling of pCO2, respectively. These values are significantly higher than IPCC global warming estimations, consistent or higher than some recent state-of-the-art climate models, and consistent with other proxy-based estimates...
Very different to the US where notoriously dead people have been voted into power before.
Right I can't spend all day chatting with cowering peacenicks, yellowbellies and chicken-shit armchair warriors, I have things to do. Like: stuff myself with oysters and Sancerre at Sheekey's with my friend the SAS veteran who has also been to Ukraine, we're gonna talk about WAR
It's a guy thing. You wouldn't understand
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cjrrk8j7pwxo
That's honest advice!
I wrote earlier that Trump is in the mould of a post-colonial populist leader. Someone motivated by patronage for his clan or tribe, who seeks power for personal and family reasons and as a source of wealth and/or criminal immunity.
He can do that because the USA has started to split into mutually exclusive in- and out-groups, a form of tribalism or factionalism we more commonly associate with former colonial countries or regions like the Balkans and Northern Ireland. People move deliberately to homes and jobs in blue or red areas. Their children go to liberal or conservative schools, liberal or conservative churches, they watch liberal or conservative TV channels, there are even liberal or conservative employers. So what was once just a political divide starts to become a geographical and cultural one. How far that centrifugal force can keep going is unclear. Could it end up with civil war and actual partition, or fizzle out, or something in between?
We don't have that in the UK but I fear we have the beginnings of it. We have political echo chambers and social media bubbles. We now have quite defined political regions. Will liberal families start shunning regions where Reform are in power or right-wingers steer clear of woke metropolitan places? This pattern has always been there in British geography but I don't think it's ever happened through positive decision making (at least outside NI), it's simply been a dependent variable of socio-economic patterns. We've had it in ethnic and national groups, as happens everywhere, but not in political leanings.
Just stop oil spray paint Stonehenge.
That pisses me off more than their other antics. Not sure why.
It has been obvious that Sunak is useless at politics for several years, and yet they've continued to give him the benefit of the doubt.
Not being sufficiently right wing is going to cost them scores of seats!
I suppose I have to admit he succeeded in provoking me this time.
A Murder of Crows?
A Parliament of Rooks?
Presumably Rooks Books?
Understand this is in reference to a letter delivered in constituencies from Natalie Elphicke trashing the Rwanda scheme, criticising Rishi Sunak, and describing Keir Starmer as a “patriot”.
"My God, I thought, it's Ed Davey."
And so it seemed.
Yet, in the most recent 4 opinion polls their vote share has gone up in three and stayed the same in one. They haven’t been below 40% in the last 10 opinion polls.
I write this because I’m genuinely surprised. What will happen with the YouGov MRP, which last had them on 37%? And how fresh will their data be? As @TSE has pointed out, last time their MRPs deteriorated in reliability the closer to the vote we came.
Yes, Putin was personally targeting you.
You don't travel to observe; you don't travel to learn. You travel to brag. To boast.
And no thoughts for the people who have been hurt in these attacks. Because it's about you.
Have you been there to report on the situation so that people back in the west understand the dire state of affairs, the bombs and missiles and endless power cuts, because you yourself experienced it, alongside them?
No. You haven’t. Because you are apparently a house husband who stays at home to look after the “little un” who must by now be the biggest “little un” in the history of reproduction, and is probably wondering why he looks so much like the Ocado delivery driver
Earlier this year he was talking of going to Kharkiv. If he has done so I sincerely hope he is ok
Decent people from all walks of life who present a rich kaleidoscope to this forum.
I don’t want to return your invective but you really aren’t better than most people on this forum. You’re a lot worse.
If we're not prepared (for example) to take seriously enough the risible Farage, and won't debate his threadbare prospectus, then swapping insults is next best thing.
Or perhaps is actually better.
Timing?
I'm on at 100/1.
(Well, 99/1, actually.)
Getting interviewed in front of one would be top LOLZ.
As for your last sentence. Fuck off, Seriously. I know you find it impossible to hold down relationships, but most other people - and posters - do. You might want to consider why that is before you shit over other people's relationships.
It's jealousy, I guess.
(And anyway, we don't have Ocado....
Teach word or broken path to rejoice (3,4,4)
Remember, it's the title of a novel by a British author. Not that Tom Knox guy though, couldn't get permission.
I think ideally Labour would much prefer Lib Dems as the opposition and Reform and the Tories 3rd/4th in whichever order. Infighting on the right may make it harder for them on 2029, and if the LDs are 2nd place, it might make it easier for them to get closer alignment with the EU for example which the Labour front bench probably wish they could make electorally palatable.
Only credible way to do it IMHO.
PPB with Gary Neville from Labour tonight?
You are much braver than me...