I suspect the Reforgasm has peaked already. Farage won a news cycle in the air war, and that’s that. But ground level activity matters too, and we all know that he can’t manage it.
He got over 5 million votes and 30% in the 2019 Euro elections. I wouldn't bet on him getting fewer votes than that this time.
Most of those 5m were a Tory vote strike, using it to tell May to sling her hook....
The one that might be a bit more relevant is the 3.8 million votes UKIP got in the 2015 general election.
Still only got them one seat though. The Faragist vote distribution is horrible- not really high enough and definitely not spiky enough.
Absolutely. And the ground game is practically non-existent, in part because those Reformers enthusiastic enough to actually door-knock are really bloody odd.
I don't know in todays world how important door knocking is (beyond knowing who might vote for whom). Reform have a very friendly tv channel in GB News (which also gets large viewership on things like YouTube) and there is social media which even the oldies are on the FaceAche, in fact they are the only ones on that these days.
Some good news for Tory snobs with Survation MRP. Even though the Rishi led Tory party is projected to lose every redwall seat Boris won in 2019 and plenty more leave marginals besides it is forecast to hold Chelsea and Fulham, with 38% for Greg Hands to 36.7% for Labour and 11% for the LDs.
Farage is useful for blue wall and London Tories because he makes them seem relatively moderate and votable. The excuse many were waiting for.
What part of the Reform platform is extreme?
Answering my own question, the exteme part used to be that he wanted to leave the EU, but it's no longer possible to paint that as extreme because it's the accepted position of the major parties.
It's much harder to attack him on domestic policies when a lot of his positions are popular.
I suspect the Reforgasm has peaked already. Farage won a news cycle in the air war, and that’s that. But ground level activity matters too, and we all know that he can’t manage it.
He got over 5 million votes and 30% in the 2019 Euro elections. I wouldn't bet on him getting fewer votes than that this time.
Most of those 5m were a Tory vote strike, using it to tell May to sling her hook....
The one that might be a bit more relevant is the 3.8 million votes UKIP got in the 2015 general election.
Still only got them one seat though. The Faragist vote distribution is horrible- not really high enough and definitely not spiky enough.
Absolutely. And the ground game is practically non-existent, in part because those Reformers enthusiastic enough to actually door-knock are really bloody odd.
I don't know in todays world how important door knocking is (beyond knowing who might vote for whom). Reform have a very friendly tv channel in GB News (which also gets large viewership on things like YouTube) and there is social media which even the oldies are on the FaceAche, in fact they are the only ones on that these days.
Some good news for Tory snobs with Survation MRP. Even though the Rishi led Tory party is projected to lose every redwall seat Boris won in 2019 and plenty more leave marginals besides it is forecast to hold Chelsea and Fulham, with 38% for Greg Hands to 36.7% for Labour and 11% for the LDs.
Farage is useful for blue wall and London Tories because he makes them seem relatively moderate and votable. The excuse many were waiting for.
Yes, as a result the average seats represented by the Conservative Parliamentary Party will in the end look a lot more like 1997 than 2019. Southern dominated, often rural and relatively posh, including it seems with an MP still in the Royal borough of West London
If Bairstow or Brook had got out early as well, England could have been in a world of trouble. Why no Jacks is just bizarre.
Not as bizarre as no Wood. He would have scared their batsmen on this pitch.
I guess they were worried about going for lots of runs. But yes, the thing that players who are lesser can't cope is insane pace. There is just a massive difference between 80-85, then getting between 85-90, and then the insanity of 95.
I found this out myself. I faced 80-85 most weekends and was ok. On rare occasion, I faced 85-90, and was in a world of hurt. I don't even want to think about 95.
There's a story about when Hank Aaron was asked to help with some coaching of an exceptional young minor league hitter who had really struggled when called up to the Majors at the Braves' preseason camp. He patiently explained how you could watch each of the various 95mph + pitchers and pick up where the fingers were positioned and which way the ball was rotating, at what speed, and how you should adjust your shoulders, stance and swing in response, depending on whether you wanted to make a base hit or saw a chance of a possible home run. And how you could just know it would be a ball safely left. "Does that answer your questions?" he said. "Not really. How do you see the fucking ball?" was the reply. Hank never coached.
They did some experiments where they strapped cameras to different ability players helmets for cricket. The "watch the ball" is nonsense when you reach these speeds, they found the elite players watch the release point and immediately their eyes moves to where the ball will pitch. The difference is they are right most of the time, other lesser players guesses are off even after using bowling machines.
And the pros definitely aren't "watching it onto the bat". They watch release, move head / body to best play where it will pitch, play shot. It is why all these change-ups (borrowed from baseball) are effective, it totally messes with their learned behaviour. Benny Howell has become a highly effective cricketer in T20 because he has mastered all these change of pace deliveries.
For baseball, there have been funny experiments where they have got major league batters to try to hit slower pitches and they really struggle, because again all their training / experience doesn't marry with what they are used to. Obviously after a short while they can adjust, but initially it is really hard for them. Its why the knuckle ball pitcher was popular for a while, despite throwing at such slow speeds.
Strangely. This is reminiscent of a little PB conversation I had about a week ago about graduates in teaching. And about SEN kids outside even special schools, and working in PRU's. Am constantly asked by my colleagues how I manage it. How I maintain total calm in the face of horrific behaviour and exceptional panic attacks. Whilst being hit, kicked and bitten. How I keep them safe while they are standing on a railway bridge or platform threatening to chuck themselves off. In a state of no thought. No anxiety. No worry. Even when I'm physically blocking them from a moving InterCity. And then re establish a positive relationship with the child inside an hour. We laugh uproariously about it. And move on. The truthful answer is I don't know. Have been asked to train people up. I wouldn't know how to. I do know my possession of an honours degree from a Russell Group University is fuck all use in that moment. Nor did anyone teach me this. I'm a spectacularly useless classroom teacher of compliant kids who want to learn. I can't transmit knowledge. I'm not interesting. But I can get a knife off a dysregulated kid better than anyone I've ever seen. Because it's an art, not a Science. Find out what you're good at and lean in to it.
I suspect the Reforgasm has peaked already. Farage won a news cycle in the air war, and that’s that. But ground level activity matters too, and we all know that he can’t manage it.
He got over 5 million votes and 30% in the 2019 Euro elections. I wouldn't bet on him getting fewer votes than that this time.
Absolute nonsense comment. What was the turnout in the 2019 Euros? And how many of those 30% were “Get Brexit Done” Tories?
Ok, if you reject that precedent, he got almost 4m votes in 2015 when up against Cameron in his prime. I find it difficult to believe he won't outperform numbers like that this time around.
That was Farage's 7th FPTP failure as I recall, and the only one elected for UKIP was Carswell who had brought a good number of activists over with him from the Cons and had an established network in the constituency.
Sadly I think the Tories will outperform these doom scenarios. 150 is my median expectation.
It’s a shame, because I’d LOVE to see the Ed Davey shadow frontbench in action. Can you imagine - a sustained LIBERAL opposition to the overweening Starmerite Five Year Plan?
I suspect the Reforgasm has peaked already. Farage won a news cycle in the air war, and that’s that. But ground level activity matters too, and we all know that he can’t manage it.
He got over 5 million votes and 30% in the 2019 Euro elections. I wouldn't bet on him getting fewer votes than that this time.
Most of those 5m were a Tory vote strike, using it to tell May to sling her hook....
The one that might be a bit more relevant is the 3.8 million votes UKIP got in the 2015 general election.
Still only got them one seat though. The Faragist vote distribution is horrible- not really high enough and definitely not spiky enough.
Absolutely. And the ground game is practically non-existent, in part because those Reformers enthusiastic enough to actually door-knock are really bloody odd.
I don't know in todays world how important door knocking is (beyond knowing who might vote for whom). Reform have a very friendly tv channel in GB News (which also gets large viewership on things like YouTube) and there is social media which even the oldies are on the FaceAche, in fact they are the only ones on that these days.
The Tories don't appear to be door-knocking in Didcot and Wantage - they have AFAIK precisely zero posters up. But nor are Reform. The latest Survation poll shows it as a 3-cornered marginal with Labour fractionally ahead, the LibDems second and Reform down on 10%, which is also our local view. People who care about Europe in Didcot tend to be pro-EU.
Sadly I think the Tories will outperform these doom scenarios. 150 is my median expectation.
It’s a shame, because I’d LOVE to see the Ed Davey shadow frontbench in action. Can you imagine - a sustained LIBERAL opposition to the overweening Starmerite Five Year Plan?
I don't know. The Tories have managed to burn so much of their brand. They have pissed off left wing people, right wing people and centrists. They are openly laughed at, rather than begrudgingly respected. The forgiving quality for many voters has always been well I don't like some of the baby eating, the sleaze, etc, but the policies are serious and grown up.
However, the manifesto isn't serious, its a total shit show. Their leader is rubbish at politics, but they are running a campaign like he has Obama levels of popularity.
I am not sure they could do much worse if they tried. I might say they catch Sunak saying Hitler wasn't a bad bloke after all, but that would probably steal some Reform UK vote.
I suspect the Reforgasm has peaked already. Farage won a news cycle in the air war, and that’s that. But ground level activity matters too, and we all know that he can’t manage it.
He got over 5 million votes and 30% in the 2019 Euro elections. I wouldn't bet on him getting fewer votes than that this time.
Most of those 5m were a Tory vote strike, using it to tell May to sling her hook....
The one that might be a bit more relevant is the 3.8 million votes UKIP got in the 2015 general election.
Still only got them one seat though. The Faragist vote distribution is horrible- not really high enough and definitely not spiky enough.
Absolutely. And the ground game is practically non-existent, in part because those Reformers enthusiastic enough to actually door-knock are really bloody odd.
I don't know in todays world how important door knocking is (beyond knowing who might vote for whom). Reform have a very friendly tv channel in GB News (which also gets large viewership on things like YouTube) and there is social media which even the oldies are on the FaceAche, in fact they are the only ones on that these days.
Some good news for Tory snobs with Survation MRP. Even though the Rishi led Tory party is projected to lose every redwall seat Boris won in 2019 and plenty more leave marginals besides it is forecast to hold Chelsea and Fulham, with 38% for Greg Hands to 36.7% for Labour and 11% for the LDs.
Farage is useful for blue wall and London Tories because he makes them seem relatively moderate and votable. The excuse many were waiting for.
What part of the Reform platform is extreme?
Admiring Putin Wanting net zero immigration Wanting to slash taxes while increasing spending and therefore bankrupting the country Thinking we should have made peace with Hitler in 1939
You seem to be planning to vote for them. Good luck with that.
Excepting Net Zero immigration, which I think you'll find fairly widespread support for, are any of those part of the platform?
I suspect the Reforgasm has peaked already. Farage won a news cycle in the air war, and that’s that. But ground level activity matters too, and we all know that he can’t manage it.
He got over 5 million votes and 30% in the 2019 Euro elections. I wouldn't bet on him getting fewer votes than that this time.
Most of those 5m were a Tory vote strike, using it to tell May to sling her hook....
The one that might be a bit more relevant is the 3.8 million votes UKIP got in the 2015 general election.
Still only got them one seat though. The Faragist vote distribution is horrible- not really high enough and definitely not spiky enough.
Absolutely. And the ground game is practically non-existent, in part because those Reformers enthusiastic enough to actually door-knock are really bloody odd.
I don't know in todays world how important door knocking is (beyond knowing who might vote for whom). Reform have a very friendly tv channel in GB News (which also gets large viewership on things like YouTube) and there is social media which even the oldies are on the FaceAche, in fact they are the only ones on that these days.
Some good news for Tory snobs with Survation MRP. Even though the Rishi led Tory party is projected to lose every redwall seat Boris won in 2019 and plenty more leave marginals besides it is forecast to hold Chelsea and Fulham, with 38% for Greg Hands to 36.7% for Labour and 11% for the LDs.
Farage is useful for blue wall and London Tories because he makes them seem relatively moderate and votable. The excuse many were waiting for.
What part of the Reform platform is extreme?
Answering my own question, the exteme part used to be that he wanted to leave the EU, but it's no longer possible to paint that as extreme because it's the accepted position of the major parties.
It's much harder to attack him on domestic policies when a lot of his positions are popular.
How about his weird links with Vlad Putin and Julian Assange. How about the fact that Reform seems to be some kind of weird Farage trust fund masquerading as a political party? How about the fact that 1/3 of Reform candidates follow far-right figures on X?
This is also the first major election where Farage will be a general-purpose populist rather than a single-issue Eurosceptic candidate. That pushes his theoretical ceiling much higher.
But it also exposes him to far more scrutiny on a wider range of issues. Being a single issue campaigner in a single issue campaign is not difficult. Doing it in a general election when everything is up for debate and where you personally are being scrutinised rather than just the single issue is a far more demanding and is not a position I think he is suited to.
Also, it was possible to support UKIP on a "don't like him or what he might do with power, but I do want Britain out of the EU" basis. With the Brexit Party, there was also the "good grief, they're taking the mickey in Westminster" factor.
Now, he's got a platform and people can either support it or oppose it. And whilst some people clearly do support it, it's currently not enough to trouble the scorers much in FPTP. Neither does it mean that he would bring much to a RefCon union.
(RefCon have totalled about 30-35 percent fairly steadily through the Rishi years. Put them in one party and it would add up to less- both some relative wets and some hard reformers wouldn't want anything to do with that. Besides, even 35 percent isn't a winning score.)
Sadly I think the Tories will outperform these doom scenarios. 150 is my median expectation.
It’s a shame, because I’d LOVE to see the Ed Davey shadow frontbench in action. Can you imagine - a sustained LIBERAL opposition to the overweening Starmerite Five Year Plan?
I'd love to see a liberal opposition - what's that got to do with Ed Davey?
I suspect the Reforgasm has peaked already. Farage won a news cycle in the air war, and that’s that. But ground level activity matters too, and we all know that he can’t manage it.
He got over 5 million votes and 30% in the 2019 Euro elections. I wouldn't bet on him getting fewer votes than that this time.
Absolute nonsense comment. What was the turnout in the 2019 Euros? And how many of those 30% were “Get Brexit Done” Tories?
Ok, if you reject that precedent, he got almost 4m votes in 2015 when up against Cameron in his prime. I find it difficult to believe he won't outperform numbers like that this time around.
That was Farage's 7th FPTP failure as I recall, and the only one elected for UKIP was Carswell who had brought a good number of activists over with him from the Cons and had an established network in the constituency.
The framing now is completely different.
Then it was: sensible Tory vs nutter who wants to leave the EU
Now it is: pointless Tory vs populist who wants to give the establishment an electoral kicking
Farage has never been in the electoral sweet spot like this before.
This is also the first major election where Farage will be a general-purpose populist rather than a single-issue Eurosceptic candidate. That pushes his theoretical ceiling much higher.
He's still a single issue candidate though. Immigration generally, rather than Brexit in particular.
Sadly I think the Tories will outperform these doom scenarios. 150 is my median expectation.
It’s a shame, because I’d LOVE to see the Ed Davey shadow frontbench in action. Can you imagine - a sustained LIBERAL opposition to the overweening Starmerite Five Year Plan?
I don't know. The Tories have managed to burn so much of their brand. They have pissed off left wing people, right wing people and centrists. They are openly laughed at, rather than feared. Their manifesto is a total shit show. Their leader is rubbish at politics, but they are running a campaign like he has Obama levels of popularity.
I seriously think Rishi has been told to “step away” to stabilise Tory support.
The running gag on “Some Mothers Do ‘Ave ‘Em” was that Frank Spencer would try a new job every week - with catastrophic effects. That’s basically Rishi Sunak as campaigning Prime Minister.
“Ooh Betty, the shih-tzu’s done a woopsie on the Rothko”.
Sadly I think the Tories will outperform these doom scenarios. 150 is my median expectation.
It’s a shame, because I’d LOVE to see the Ed Davey shadow frontbench in action. Can you imagine - a sustained LIBERAL opposition to the overweening Starmerite Five Year Plan?
Except the LD manifesto was more social democracy Charles Kennedy style than dry as dust centre right Orange Bookism.
There is no point having a social democratic LD main opposition to a social democratic Labour government led by Starmer.
So I suspect the Tories will hold on as main opposition on seats as well as votes as almost all the latest polls now suggest
Sadly I think the Tories will outperform these doom scenarios. 150 is my median expectation.
It’s a shame, because I’d LOVE to see the Ed Davey shadow frontbench in action. Can you imagine - a sustained LIBERAL opposition to the overweening Starmerite Five Year Plan?
I don't know. The Tories have managed to burn so much of their brand. They have pissed off left wing people, right wing people and centrists. They are openly laughed at, rather than feared. Their manifesto is a total shit show. Their leader is rubbish at politics, but they are running a campaign like he has Obama levels of popularity.
I seriously think Rishi has been told to “step away” to stabilise Tory support.
The running gag on “Some Mothers Do ‘Ave ‘Em” was that Frank Spencer would try a new job every week - with catastrophic effects. That’s basically Rishi Sunak as campaigning Prime Minister.
“Ooh Betty, the shih-tzu’s done a woopsie on the Rothko”.
Some Mother-in-Laws do 'Ave 'Em
It could be a hit sitcom about a billionaire heiress whose son-in-law is desperate to impress her but always ends up making a mess.
Shocked at how ill King Charles looked at the Trooping of the Colour.
I really do wonder now if Sunak was briefed on his condition - and decided he had no choice but to go for an earlier election than one later in the year that might have had a period of official mourning in the middle of it. It would explain much, particularly why the Cabinet weren't party to that decision.
No he called the general election as Braverman and co were near to the numbers needed for a VONC.
The King looked OK to me, pleased the Princess of Wales looked even better as this was her first public appearance in months.
Most with pancreatic cancer, the worst case cancer he may have, are dead within a year so hopefully it is not that. If it is at least the Wales' are united again and William now seems ready to take the throne if the worst happens. Camilla could be Queen Step Mother and retire to Highgrove.
Hopefully though Charles has many more years left as King and with the Queen
When I was being treated for leukaemia but in remission I visited my Mother in law to do some decorating. Neighbours called in and after I had left commented to her about how I’ll I looked. I really didn’t - I was perfectly fine at that point, with no trace of disease. I think they were projecting because they knew I was in treatment etc. I think Charles looks fine. He’s 75, not 45.
Sadly I think the Tories will outperform these doom scenarios. 150 is my median expectation.
It’s a shame, because I’d LOVE to see the Ed Davey shadow frontbench in action. Can you imagine - a sustained LIBERAL opposition to the overweening Starmerite Five Year Plan?
I don't know. The Tories have managed to burn so much of their brand. They have pissed off left wing people, right wing people and centrists. They are openly laughed at, rather than feared. Their manifesto is a total shit show. Their leader is rubbish at politics, but they are running a campaign like he has Obama levels of popularity.
I seriously think Rishi has been told to “step away” to stabilise Tory support.
The running gag on “Some Mothers Do ‘Ave ‘Em” was that Frank Spencer would try a new job every week - with catastrophic effects. That’s basically Rishi Sunak as campaigning Prime Minister.
“Ooh Betty, the shih-tzu’s done a woopsie on the Rothko”.
Interesting to see if it works. He cannot hide away for long, and for the moment circa 100 looks more likely than anything higher than that, unless going for a 'well, the polls just feel wrong' scenario.
This is also the first major election where Farage will be a general-purpose populist rather than a single-issue Eurosceptic candidate. That pushes his theoretical ceiling much higher.
But it also exposes him to far more scrutiny on a wider range of issues. Being a single issue campaigner in a single issue campaign is not difficult. Doing it in a general election when everything is up for debate and where you personally are being scrutinised rather than just the single issue is a far more demanding and is not a position I think he is suited to.
Also, it was possible to support UKIP on a "don't like him or what he might do with power, but I do want Britain out of the EU" basis. With the Brexit Party, there was also the "good grief, they're taking the mickey in Westminster" factor.
Now, he's got a platform and people can either support it or oppose it. And whilst some people clearly do support it, it's currently not enough to trouble the scorers much in FPTP. Neither does it mean that he would bring much to a RefCon union.
(RefCon have totalled about 30-35 percent fairly steadily through the Rishi years. Put them in one party and it would add up to less- both some relative wets and some hard reformers wouldn't want anything to do with that. Besides, even 35 percent isn't a winning score.)
Whilst I agree with you about current Tory/Reform prospects, it is worth pointing out that Blair won a 62 seat majority with 35.2% of the vote in 2005. It does depend a lot on the state of the other parties at the time.
Up to 400 Russian soldiers reported surrendering after an aggregate plant in Vovchansk was surrounded by Ukrainan troops.
There have been more than a few hints that the wheels are starting to come off for Russia once again as their attacks peter out and the ammunition flow to Ukraine increases once again. We are getting more stories of Ukrainian counter attacks and far fewer of lost villages.
One of the famous signals from the US Marines in the Korean war was: "The enemy are in front of us, behind us and on both sides. They won't get away this time."
Sounds like the Russians had a different view.
@DavidL“Hard pressed on my right. My center is yielding. Impossible to maneuver. Situation excellent. I am attacking." - General Ferdinand Foch, when he held firm to prevent the French Army being overrun at the first battle of the Marne, 5 and 12 September 1914
Sadly I think the Tories will outperform these doom scenarios. 150 is my median expectation.
It’s a shame, because I’d LOVE to see the Ed Davey shadow frontbench in action. Can you imagine - a sustained LIBERAL opposition to the overweening Starmerite Five Year Plan?
See what you think when you've had your sniff. 1997 has been my base map for a while- but that's gone from "not quite as bad as 1997" early in the year to "quite a bit worse than 1997" now. Rishi really is that awful.
And even if Farage can't win himself, he can destroy the Conservatives. But destruction is always the easy bit.
This is also the first major election where Farage will be a general-purpose populist rather than a single-issue Eurosceptic candidate. That pushes his theoretical ceiling much higher.
He's still a single issue candidate though. Immigration generally, rather than Brexit in particular.
He's two issues - immigration, and 'do you not like Labour/LDs but are disgusted/disappointed in the Tories?'
Sadly I think the Tories will outperform these doom scenarios. 150 is my median expectation.
It’s a shame, because I’d LOVE to see the Ed Davey shadow frontbench in action. Can you imagine - a sustained LIBERAL opposition to the overweening Starmerite Five Year Plan?
See what you think when you've had your sniff. 1997 has been my base map for a while- but that's gone from "not quite as bad as 1997" early in the year to "quite a bit worse than 1997" now. Rishi really is that awful.
That's basically where I've transitioned from. I even started the GE campaign assuming around 150 was the lower end, 1997 levels, but boy that start was dreadul, and it's not gotten better.
Sadly I think the Tories will outperform these doom scenarios. 150 is my median expectation.
It’s a shame, because I’d LOVE to see the Ed Davey shadow frontbench in action. Can you imagine - a sustained LIBERAL opposition to the overweening Starmerite Five Year Plan?
See what you think when you've had your sniff. 1997 has been my base map for a while- but that's gone from "not quite as bad as 1997" early in the year to "quite a bit worse than 1997" now. Rishi really is that awful.
And even if Farage can't win himself, he can destroy the Conservatives. But destruction is always the easy bit.
The Tories have a decent start to their campaign, I don't think we get Farage, then its probably in 1997 territory as the disgruntled Tory vote dons the trademarked Poly nose peg come election day.
Its quite a spectacular omnishambles from the Tories.
If Bairstow or Brook had got out early as well, England could have been in a world of trouble. Why no Jacks is just bizarre.
Not as bizarre as no Wood. He would have scared their batsmen on this pitch.
I guess they were worried about going for lots of runs. But yes, the thing that players who are lesser can't cope is insane pace. There is just a massive difference between 80-85, then getting between 85-90, and then the insanity of 95.
I found this out myself. I faced 80-85 most weekends and was ok. On rare occasion, I faced 85-90, and was in a world of hurt. I don't even want to think about 95.
There's a story about when Hank Aaron was asked to help with some coaching of an exceptional young minor league hitter who had really struggled when called up to the Majors at the Braves' preseason camp. He patiently explained how you could watch each of the various 95mph + pitchers and pick up where the fingers were positioned and which way the ball was rotating, at what speed, and how you should adjust your shoulders, stance and swing in response, depending on whether you wanted to make a base hit or saw a chance of a possible home run. And how you could just know it would be a ball safely left. "Does that answer your questions?" he said. "Not really. How do you see the fucking ball?" was the reply. Hank never coached.
They did some experiments where they strapped cameras to different ability players helmets for cricket. The "watch the ball" is nonsense when you reach these speeds, they found the elite players watch the release point and immediately their eyes moves to where the ball will pitch. The difference is they are right most of the time, other lesser players guesses are off even after using bowling machines.
And the pros definitely aren't "watching it onto the bat". They watch release, move head / body to best play where it will pitch, play shot. It is why all these change-ups (borrowed from baseball) are effective, it totally messes with their learned behaviour. Benny Howell has become a highly effective cricketer in T20 because he has mastered all these change of pace deliveries.
For baseball, there have been funny experiments where they have got major league batters to try to hit slower pitches and they really struggle, because again all their training / experience doesn't marry with what they are used to. Obviously after a short while they can adjust, but initially it is really hard for them. Its why the knuckle ball pitcher was popular for a while, despite throwing at such slow speeds.
Strangely. This is reminiscent of a little PB conversation I had about a week ago about graduates in teaching. And about SEN kids outside even special schools, and working in PRU's. Am constantly asked by my colleagues how I manage it. How I maintain total calm in the face of horrific behaviour and exceptional panic attacks. Whilst being hit, kicked and bitten. How I keep them safe while they are standing on a railway bridge or platform threatening to chuck themselves off. In a state of no thought. No anxiety. No worry. Even when I'm physically blocking them from a moving InterCity. And then re establish a positive relationship with the child inside an hour. We laugh uproariously about it. And move on. The truthful answer is I don't know. Have been asked to train people up. I wouldn't know how to. I do know my possession of an honours degree from a Russell Group University is fuck all use in that moment. Nor did anyone teach me this. I'm a spectacularly useless classroom teacher of compliant kids who want to learn. I can't transmit knowledge. I'm not interesting. But I can get a knife off a dysregulated kid better than anyone I've ever seen. Because it's an art, not a Science. Find out what you're good at and lean in to it.
Been offered a new contract, but will find out Friday where I am deployed. Suspect I will be moved (I'm paid too much to be "wasted" on this). Probably they'll want me to teach A level. I'll have to hand in my notice. They've expelled my three favourite kids. Sorry for burdening you with the bit which really does cause me anxiety. I'm a little unusual.
If Bairstow or Brook had got out early as well, England could have been in a world of trouble. Why no Jacks is just bizarre.
Not as bizarre as no Wood. He would have scared their batsmen on this pitch.
I guess they were worried about going for lots of runs. But yes, the thing that players who are lesser can't cope is insane pace. There is just a massive difference between 80-85, then getting between 85-90, and then the insanity of 95.
I found this out myself. I faced 80-85 most weekends and was ok. On rare occasion, I faced 85-90, and was in a world of hurt. I don't even want to think about 95.
There's a story about when Hank Aaron was asked to help with some coaching of an exceptional young minor league hitter who had really struggled when called up to the Majors at the Braves' preseason camp. He patiently explained how you could watch each of the various 95mph + pitchers and pick up where the fingers were positioned and which way the ball was rotating, at what speed, and how you should adjust your shoulders, stance and swing in response, depending on whether you wanted to make a base hit or saw a chance of a possible home run. And how you could just know it would be a ball safely left. "Does that answer your questions?" he said. "Not really. How do you see the fucking ball?" was the reply. Hank never coached.
They did some experiments where they strapped cameras to different ability players helmets for cricket. The "watch the ball" is nonsense when you reach these speeds, they found the elite players watch the release point and immediately their eyes moves to where the ball will pitch. The difference is they are right most of the time, other lesser players guesses are off even after using bowling machines.
And the pros definitely aren't "watching it onto the bat". They watch release, move head / body to best play where it will pitch, play shot. It is why all these change-ups (borrowed from baseball) are effective, it totally messes with their learned behaviour. Benny Howell has become a highly effective cricketer in T20 because he has mastered all these change of pace deliveries.
For baseball, there have been funny experiments where they have got major league batters to try to hit slower pitches and they really struggle, because again all their training / experience doesn't marry with what they are used to. Obviously after a short while they can adjust, but initially it is really hard for them. Its why the knuckle ball pitcher was popular for a while, despite throwing at such slow speeds.
Strangely. This is reminiscent of a little PB conversation I had about a week ago about graduates in teaching. And about SEN kids outside even special schools, and working in PRU's. Am constantly asked by my colleagues how I manage it. How I maintain total calm in the face of horrific behaviour and exceptional panic attacks. Whilst being hit, kicked and bitten. How I keep them safe while they are standing on a railway bridge or platform threatening to chuck themselves off. In a state of no thought. No anxiety. No worry. Even when I'm physically blocking them from a moving InterCity. And then re establish a positive relationship with the child inside an hour. We laugh uproariously about it. And move on. The truthful answer is I don't know. Have been asked to train people up. I wouldn't know how to. I do know my possession of an honours degree from a Russell Group University is fuck all use in that moment. Nor did anyone teach me this. I'm a spectacularly useless classroom teacher of compliant kids who want to learn. I can't transmit knowledge. I'm not interesting. But I can get a knife off a dysregulated kid better than anyone I've ever seen. Because it's an art, not a Science. Find out what you're good at and lean in to it.
You have my admiration sir. My oldest friend and godfather to my kids won Special Needs Teacher of the Year for working with EBD kids about 15 years ago and the stories from him are horrendous. Not a job I could ever do.
I suspect the Reforgasm has peaked already. Farage won a news cycle in the air war, and that’s that. But ground level activity matters too, and we all know that he can’t manage it.
He got over 5 million votes and 30% in the 2019 Euro elections. I wouldn't bet on him getting fewer votes than that this time.
I suspect the Reforgasm has peaked already. Farage won a news cycle in the air war, and that’s that. But ground level activity matters too, and we all know that he can’t manage it.
He got over 5 million votes and 30% in the 2019 Euro elections. I wouldn't bet on him getting fewer votes than that this time.
Most of those 5m were a Tory vote strike, using it to tell May to sling her hook....
May was more popular than Sunak in these parts.
May was identifiably “one of us”. I don’t even mean this in a racist way. She just exuded middle England.
Sunak is the junior consultant from McKinsey who had come to size you up for potential efficiencies.
Yep, and he's not on the partnership track at McKinsey.
A lot of people on here confident that the Tories will outperform expectations and end up on 150-200 seats.
I notice 150-200 is 10.0 on BF Exchange and 200-250 is 50.0.
Surely some of you bullish on the Tories should go for that?
When they don't, the term that comes to mind is "revealed preferences"
I do think any serious punter needs to take into account that this is a much harder election to poll than normal. Look at the raw numbers (where available) and test out a few assumptions yourself.
A lot of people on here confident that the Tories will outperform expectations and end up on 150-200 seats.
I notice 150-200 is 10.0 on BF Exchange and 200-250 is 50.0.
Surely some of you bullish on the Tories should go for that?
It's not a bad idea. What we really need is an Andy_JS spreadsheet. Andy, will you be pulling together a spreadsheet for break-even in-time for election night 2024?
A lot of people on here confident that the Tories will outperform expectations and end up on 150-200 seats.
I notice 150-200 is 10.0 on BF Exchange and 200-250 is 50.0.
Surely some of you bullish on the Tories should go for that?
It's not a bad idea. What we really need is an Andy_JS spreadsheet. Andy, will you be pulling together a spreadsheet for break-even in-time for election night 2024?
That Brexit one made me sooooooooooooooo much money.
I suspect the Reforgasm has peaked already. Farage won a news cycle in the air war, and that’s that. But ground level activity matters too, and we all know that he can’t manage it.
He got over 5 million votes and 30% in the 2019 Euro elections. I wouldn't bet on him getting fewer votes than that this time.
Most of those 5m were a Tory vote strike, using it to tell May to sling her hook....
May was more popular than Sunak in these parts.
May was identifiably “one of us”. I don’t even mean this in a racist way. She just exuded middle England.
Sunak is the junior consultant from McKinsey who had come to size you up for potential efficiencies.
Sunak is the classic MBA*. No real world experience. Overconfident, underqualified, understanding every number on the spreadsheet but no real idea how those numbers affect people in real life.
Sunak has no feel for people, hence his D Day gaffe. It simply wasn't important to him, because he put in what he thought was the required number of hours then went off to do something else. Maximising efficiency, and all that.
*I may have one of those myself, so I know of what I speak.
I suspect the Reforgasm has peaked already. Farage won a news cycle in the air war, and that’s that. But ground level activity matters too, and we all know that he can’t manage it.
He got over 5 million votes and 30% in the 2019 Euro elections. I wouldn't bet on him getting fewer votes than that this time.
Most of those 5m were a Tory vote strike, using it to tell May to sling her hook....
May was more popular than Sunak in these parts.
May was identifiably “one of us”. I don’t even mean this in a racist way. She just exuded middle England.
Sunak is the junior consultant from McKinsey who had come to size you up for potential efficiencies.
Yep, and he's not on the partnership track at McKinsey.
Isn't McKinsey a place where no promotion to the partnership track you are pretty quickly a gonna? There no real hanging around in the same job for very long as plenty of other bright young things joining.
I suspect the Reforgasm has peaked already. Farage won a news cycle in the air war, and that’s that. But ground level activity matters too, and we all know that he can’t manage it.
He got over 5 million votes and 30% in the 2019 Euro elections. I wouldn't bet on him getting fewer votes than that this time.
Most of those 5m were a Tory vote strike, using it to tell May to sling her hook....
The one that might be a bit more relevant is the 3.8 million votes UKIP got in the 2015 general election.
Still only got them one seat though. The Faragist vote distribution is horrible- not really high enough and definitely not spiky enough.
Absolutely. And the ground game is practically non-existent, in part because those Reformers enthusiastic enough to actually door-knock are really bloody odd.
I don't know in todays world how important door knocking is (beyond knowing who might vote for whom). Reform have a very friendly tv channel in GB News (which also gets large viewership on things like YouTube) and there is social media which even the oldies are on the FaceAche, in fact they are the only ones on that these days.
Ground game has basically been negated by social media.
I don't think that's entirely true.
Physical presence still matters, and that covers a panoply of things from councillors, to stalls in the High Street, to posters in windows, and even to tellers at polling stations.
A thought. Would sub-200 seats and a lot of official opposition status make the Tories more likely to want a leader in the Lords? Take the opposition fight there and hope Starmer gets unpopular enough quickly enough you can claim to represent “the people”? Perhaps Cameron would see a role for himself?
Don’t see it as likely mind. He doesn’t seem the sort to fancy any hard work.
Hey everyone. Thanks for just letting me write down my anxieties. I'm terrified the School will "give me a deserved break" by putting me into the class my qualifications would suggest. I just want to work with the most damaged. Just leave me and a couple of others to do it, without interference, and they wouldn't be out of school. Thanks for the safe space. I'm already a load less anxious for having a forum to physically write down my unusual anxiety.
I suspect the Reforgasm has peaked already. Farage won a news cycle in the air war, and that’s that. But ground level activity matters too, and we all know that he can’t manage it.
He got over 5 million votes and 30% in the 2019 Euro elections. I wouldn't bet on him getting fewer votes than that this time.
Most of those 5m were a Tory vote strike, using it to tell May to sling her hook....
May was more popular than Sunak in these parts.
May was identifiably “one of us”. I don’t even mean this in a racist way. She just exuded middle England.
Sunak is the junior consultant from McKinsey who had come to size you up for potential efficiencies.
Yep, and he's not on the partnership track at McKinsey.
Isn't McKinsey a place where no promotion to the partnership track you are pretty quickly a gonna? There no real hanging around in the same job for very long.
You get 4 to 5 years of working 16 hour days, and then you are gently encouraged to depart.
I suspect the Reforgasm has peaked already. Farage won a news cycle in the air war, and that’s that. But ground level activity matters too, and we all know that he can’t manage it.
He got over 5 million votes and 30% in the 2019 Euro elections. I wouldn't bet on him getting fewer votes than that this time.
Most of those 5m were a Tory vote strike, using it to tell May to sling her hook....
The one that might be a bit more relevant is the 3.8 million votes UKIP got in the 2015 general election.
Still only got them one seat though. The Faragist vote distribution is horrible- not really high enough and definitely not spiky enough.
Absolutely. And the ground game is practically non-existent, in part because those Reformers enthusiastic enough to actually door-knock are really bloody odd.
I don't know in todays world how important door knocking is (beyond knowing who might vote for whom). Reform have a very friendly tv channel in GB News (which also gets large viewership on things like YouTube) and there is social media which even the oldies are on the FaceAche, in fact they are the only ones on that these days.
Some good news for Tory snobs with Survation MRP. Even though the Rishi led Tory party is projected to lose every redwall seat Boris won in 2019 and plenty more leave marginals besides it is forecast to hold Chelsea and Fulham, with 38% for Greg Hands to 36.7% for Labour and 11% for the LDs.
Farage is useful for blue wall and London Tories because he makes them seem relatively moderate and votable. The excuse many were waiting for.
What part of the Reform platform is extreme?
Admiring Putin Wanting net zero immigration Wanting to slash taxes while increasing spending and therefore bankrupting the country Thinking we should have made peace with Hitler in 1939
You seem to be planning to vote for them. Good luck with that.
Well said!
Farage is hateful, racist scum.
His party is rancid.
His followers admire Putin and the wrong side from WWII.
I suspect the Reforgasm has peaked already. Farage won a news cycle in the air war, and that’s that. But ground level activity matters too, and we all know that he can’t manage it.
I’m currently headed to south of France for work, but I’ll be on the ground in London shortly to sniff out the “mood”.
London will not show the mood of the country.
Just back from the pub in rural Dorset. No mention of the election apart from how Farage 'says it how it is'.
I suspect the Reforgasm has peaked already. Farage won a news cycle in the air war, and that’s that. But ground level activity matters too, and we all know that he can’t manage it.
He got over 5 million votes and 30% in the 2019 Euro elections. I wouldn't bet on him getting fewer votes than that this time.
Most of those 5m were a Tory vote strike, using it to tell May to sling her hook....
The one that might be a bit more relevant is the 3.8 million votes UKIP got in the 2015 general election.
Still only got them one seat though. The Faragist vote distribution is horrible- not really high enough and definitely not spiky enough.
Absolutely. And the ground game is practically non-existent, in part because those Reformers enthusiastic enough to actually door-knock are really bloody odd.
I don't know in todays world how important door knocking is (beyond knowing who might vote for whom). Reform have a very friendly tv channel in GB News (which also gets large viewership on things like YouTube) and there is social media which even the oldies are on the FaceAche, in fact they are the only ones on that these days.
Ground game has basically been negated by social media.
I don't think that's entirely true.
Physical presence still matters, and that covers a panoply of things from councillors, to stalls in the High Street, to posters in windows, and even to tellers at polling stations.
And also turnout. Ground game may not count for that much any more in persuading voters to vote for you, but it still counts, especially but not only on election day, in getting your voters to actually vote. Still pretty important, IMO.
I suspect the Reforgasm has peaked already. Farage won a news cycle in the air war, and that’s that. But ground level activity matters too, and we all know that he can’t manage it.
He got over 5 million votes and 30% in the 2019 Euro elections. I wouldn't bet on him getting fewer votes than that this time.
Most of those 5m were a Tory vote strike, using it to tell May to sling her hook....
The one that might be a bit more relevant is the 3.8 million votes UKIP got in the 2015 general election.
Still only got them one seat though. The Faragist vote distribution is horrible- not really high enough and definitely not spiky enough.
Absolutely. And the ground game is practically non-existent, in part because those Reformers enthusiastic enough to actually door-knock are really bloody odd.
I don't know in todays world how important door knocking is (beyond knowing who might vote for whom). Reform have a very friendly tv channel in GB News (which also gets large viewership on things like YouTube) and there is social media which even the oldies are on the FaceAche, in fact they are the only ones on that these days.
Ground game has basically been negated by social media.
I don't think that's entirely true.
Physical presence still matters, and that covers a panoply of things from councillors, to stalls in the High Street, to posters in windows, and even to tellers at polling stations.
I think it matters more for low turnout elections or minor areas (eg a council election), but for the rest I think activists are fooling themselves. It's a way of maintaining morale and engaging the members, but greater impact than social media and the news cycle? No. Things have moved on, but the party establishments and core members don't want to believe that could be true.
I don't think it has no impact whatsoever, but I think it is fairly minimal, and most areas do not even get the kind of concerted, targeted effort that might conceivably make a difference at the margins, so even if it really does have more impact than I think it is not universal in any case.
If Bairstow or Brook had got out early as well, England could have been in a world of trouble. Why no Jacks is just bizarre.
Not as bizarre as no Wood. He would have scared their batsmen on this pitch.
I guess they were worried about going for lots of runs. But yes, the thing that players who are lesser can't cope is insane pace. There is just a massive difference between 80-85, then getting between 85-90, and then the insanity of 95.
I found this out myself. I faced 80-85 most weekends and was ok. On rare occasion, I faced 85-90, and was in a world of hurt. I don't even want to think about 95.
There's a story about when Hank Aaron was asked to help with some coaching of an exceptional young minor league hitter who had really struggled when called up to the Majors at the Braves' preseason camp. He patiently explained how you could watch each of the various 95mph + pitchers and pick up where the fingers were positioned and which way the ball was rotating, at what speed, and how you should adjust your shoulders, stance and swing in response, depending on whether you wanted to make a base hit or saw a chance of a possible home run. And how you could just know it would be a ball safely left. "Does that answer your questions?" he said. "Not really. How do you see the fucking ball?" was the reply. Hank never coached.
They did some experiments where they strapped cameras to different ability players helmets for cricket. The "watch the ball" is nonsense when you reach these speeds, they found the elite players watch the release point and immediately their eyes moves to where the ball will pitch. The difference is they are right most of the time, other lesser players guesses are off even after using bowling machines.
And the pros definitely aren't "watching it onto the bat". They watch release, move head / body to best play where it will pitch, play shot. It is why all these change-ups (borrowed from baseball) are effective, it totally messes with their learned behaviour. Benny Howell has become a highly effective cricketer in T20 because he has mastered all these change of pace deliveries.
For baseball, there have been funny experiments where they have got major league batters to try to hit slower pitches and they really struggle, because again all their training / experience doesn't marry with what they are used to. Obviously after a short while they can adjust, but initially it is really hard for them. Its why the knuckle ball pitcher was popular for a while, despite throwing at such slow speeds.
Strangely. This is reminiscent of a little PB conversation I had about a week ago about graduates in teaching. And about SEN kids outside even special schools, and working in PRU's. Am constantly asked by my colleagues how I manage it. How I maintain total calm in the face of horrific behaviour and exceptional panic attacks. Whilst being hit, kicked and bitten. How I keep them safe while they are standing on a railway bridge or platform threatening to chuck themselves off. In a state of no thought. No anxiety. No worry. Even when I'm physically blocking them from a moving InterCity. And then re establish a positive relationship with the child inside an hour. We laugh uproariously about it. And move on. The truthful answer is I don't know. Have been asked to train people up. I wouldn't know how to. I do know my possession of an honours degree from a Russell Group University is fuck all use in that moment. Nor did anyone teach me this. I'm a spectacularly useless classroom teacher of compliant kids who want to learn. I can't transmit knowledge. I'm not interesting. But I can get a knife off a dysregulated kid better than anyone I've ever seen. Because it's an art, not a Science. Find out what you're good at and lean in to it.
You have my admiration sir. My oldest friend and godfather to my kids won Special Needs Teacher of the Year for working with EBD kids about 15 years ago and the stories from him are horrendous. Not a job I could ever do.
I suspect the Reforgasm has peaked already. Farage won a news cycle in the air war, and that’s that. But ground level activity matters too, and we all know that he can’t manage it.
He got over 5 million votes and 30% in the 2019 Euro elections. I wouldn't bet on him getting fewer votes than that this time.
Most of those 5m were a Tory vote strike, using it to tell May to sling her hook....
May was more popular than Sunak in these parts.
May was identifiably “one of us”. I don’t even mean this in a racist way. She just exuded middle England.
Sunak is the junior consultant from McKinsey who had come to size you up for potential efficiencies.
Yep, and he's not on the partnership track at McKinsey.
Isn't McKinsey a place where no promotion to the partnership track you are pretty quickly a gonna? There no real hanging around in the same job for very long.
You get 4 to 5 years of working 16 hour days, and then you are gently encouraged to depart.
That's more forgiving than i thought. Amazon its more like Wipeout game show, only 1 in a load even make the 4 year mark. At every stage there is new dicey obstacle ready for a Ed Davey to fall off.
I suspect the Reforgasm has peaked already. Farage won a news cycle in the air war, and that’s that. But ground level activity matters too, and we all know that he can’t manage it.
He got over 5 million votes and 30% in the 2019 Euro elections. I wouldn't bet on him getting fewer votes than that this time.
Absolute nonsense comment. What was the turnout in the 2019 Euros? And how many of those 30% were “Get Brexit Done” Tories?
Ok, if you reject that precedent, he got almost 4m votes in 2015 when up against Cameron in his prime. I find it difficult to believe he won't outperform numbers like that this time around.
That was Farage's 7th FPTP failure as I recall, and the only one elected for UKIP was Carswell who had brought a good number of activists over with him from the Cons and had an established network in the constituency.
The framing now is completely different.
Then it was: sensible Tory vs nutter who wants to leave the EU
Now it is: pointless Tory vs populist who wants to give the establishment an electoral kicking
Farage has never been in the electoral sweet spot like this before.
Sure, but Farage also suffers from being loathed by a section of the population, which is why I think @Heathener's description of him as Corbyn-like is so accurate.
I suspect the Reforgasm has peaked already. Farage won a news cycle in the air war, and that’s that. But ground level activity matters too, and we all know that he can’t manage it.
He got over 5 million votes and 30% in the 2019 Euro elections. I wouldn't bet on him getting fewer votes than that this time.
Most of those 5m were a Tory vote strike, using it to tell May to sling her hook....
May was more popular than Sunak in these parts.
May was identifiably “one of us”. I don’t even mean this in a racist way. She just exuded middle England.
Sunak is the junior consultant from McKinsey who had come to size you up for potential efficiencies.
Yep, and he's not on the partnership track at McKinsey.
Isn't McKinsey a place where no promotion to the partnership track you are pretty quickly a gonna? There no real hanging around in the same job for very long.
You get 4 to 5 years of working 16 hour days, and then you are gently encouraged to depart.
That's more forgiving than i thought. Amazon its more like Wipeout game show, only 1 in a load even make the 4 year mark. At every stage there is new dicey obstacle ready for a Ed Davey to fall off.
And yet HR managers ask you 'why did you leave your last company after a year?' As if you're expected to show loyalty to them when no employer shows loyalty to you.
'Welcome to our family,' they say, when hiring you. 'It's not personal, it's just business' in the round of layoffs next year.
I suspect the Reforgasm has peaked already. Farage won a news cycle in the air war, and that’s that. But ground level activity matters too, and we all know that he can’t manage it.
He got over 5 million votes and 30% in the 2019 Euro elections. I wouldn't bet on him getting fewer votes than that this time.
Absolute nonsense comment. What was the turnout in the 2019 Euros? And how many of those 30% were “Get Brexit Done” Tories?
Ok, if you reject that precedent, he got almost 4m votes in 2015 when up against Cameron in his prime. I find it difficult to believe he won't outperform numbers like that this time around.
That was Farage's 7th FPTP failure as I recall, and the only one elected for UKIP was Carswell who had brought a good number of activists over with him from the Cons and had an established network in the constituency.
The framing now is completely different.
Then it was: sensible Tory vs nutter who wants to leave the EU
Now it is: pointless Tory vs populist who wants to give the establishment an electoral kicking
Farage has never been in the electoral sweet spot like this before.
Sure, but Farage also suffers from being loathed by a section of the population, which is why I think @Heathener's description of him as Corbyn-like is so accurate.
The question is, is it 2017 magic grandpa "ohhhhh Jereeemmmmy" Corbyn or 2019 damaged good antisemitic enabler Corbyn.
A lot of people on here confident that the Tories will outperform expectations and end up on 150-200 seats.
I notice 150-200 is 10.0 on BF Exchange and 200-250 is 50.0.
Surely some of you bullish on the Tories should go for that?
It's not a bad idea. What we really need is an Andy_JS spreadsheet. Andy, will you be pulling together a spreadsheet for break-even in-time for election night 2024?
I’ll probably take a look at the Tory seats market tomorrow. There could be some value there by the sounds of it
If Bairstow or Brook had got out early as well, England could have been in a world of trouble. Why no Jacks is just bizarre.
Not as bizarre as no Wood. He would have scared their batsmen on this pitch.
I guess they were worried about going for lots of runs. But yes, the thing that players who are lesser can't cope is insane pace. There is just a massive difference between 80-85, then getting between 85-90, and then the insanity of 95.
I found this out myself. I faced 80-85 most weekends and was ok. On rare occasion, I faced 85-90, and was in a world of hurt. I don't even want to think about 95.
There's a story about when Hank Aaron was asked to help with some coaching of an exceptional young minor league hitter who had really struggled when called up to the Majors at the Braves' preseason camp. He patiently explained how you could watch each of the various 95mph + pitchers and pick up where the fingers were positioned and which way the ball was rotating, at what speed, and how you should adjust your shoulders, stance and swing in response, depending on whether you wanted to make a base hit or saw a chance of a possible home run. And how you could just know it would be a ball safely left. "Does that answer your questions?" he said. "Not really. How do you see the fucking ball?" was the reply. Hank never coached.
They did some experiments where they strapped cameras to different ability players helmets for cricket. The "watch the ball" is nonsense when you reach these speeds, they found the elite players watch the release point and immediately their eyes moves to where the ball will pitch. The difference is they are right most of the time, other lesser players guesses are off even after using bowling machines.
And the pros definitely aren't "watching it onto the bat". They watch release, move head / body to best play where it will pitch, play shot. It is why all these change-ups (borrowed from baseball) are effective, it totally messes with their learned behaviour. Benny Howell has become a highly effective cricketer in T20 because he has mastered all these change of pace deliveries.
For baseball, there have been funny experiments where they have got major league batters to try to hit slower pitches and they really struggle, because again all their training / experience doesn't marry with what they are used to. Obviously after a short while they can adjust, but initially it is really hard for them. Its why the knuckle ball pitcher was popular for a while, despite throwing at such slow speeds.
Strangely. This is reminiscent of a little PB conversation I had about a week ago about graduates in teaching. And about SEN kids outside even special schools, and working in PRU's. Am constantly asked by my colleagues how I manage it. How I maintain total calm in the face of horrific behaviour and exceptional panic attacks. Whilst being hit, kicked and bitten. How I keep them safe while they are standing on a railway bridge or platform threatening to chuck themselves off. In a state of no thought. No anxiety. No worry. Even when I'm physically blocking them from a moving InterCity. And then re establish a positive relationship with the child inside an hour. We laugh uproariously about it. And move on. The truthful answer is I don't know. Have been asked to train people up. I wouldn't know how to. I do know my possession of an honours degree from a Russell Group University is fuck all use in that moment. Nor did anyone teach me this. I'm a spectacularly useless classroom teacher of compliant kids who want to learn. I can't transmit knowledge. I'm not interesting. But I can get a knife off a dysregulated kid better than anyone I've ever seen. Because it's an art, not a Science. Find out what you're good at and lean in to it.
As someone whose first instinct upon learning how to do something is to try to codify into something I can explain or teach, this is fascinating. At school, a teacher I admired said you don't understand something until you can explain it to others. But then he was talking about maths, not managing troubled children!
I suspect the Reforgasm has peaked already. Farage won a news cycle in the air war, and that’s that. But ground level activity matters too, and we all know that he can’t manage it.
He got over 5 million votes and 30% in the 2019 Euro elections. I wouldn't bet on him getting fewer votes than that this time.
Most of those 5m were a Tory vote strike, using it to tell May to sling her hook....
The one that might be a bit more relevant is the 3.8 million votes UKIP got in the 2015 general election.
Still only got them one seat though. The Faragist vote distribution is horrible- not really high enough and definitely not spiky enough.
Absolutely. And the ground game is practically non-existent, in part because those Reformers enthusiastic enough to actually door-knock are really bloody odd.
I don't know in todays world how important door knocking is (beyond knowing who might vote for whom). Reform have a very friendly tv channel in GB News (which also gets large viewership on things like YouTube) and there is social media which even the oldies are on the FaceAche, in fact they are the only ones on that these days.
Ground game has basically been negated by social media.
I don't think that's entirely true.
Physical presence still matters, and that covers a panoply of things from councillors, to stalls in the High Street, to posters in windows, and even to tellers at polling stations.
I think it matters more for low turnout elections or minor areas (eg a council election), but for the rest I think activists are fooling themselves. It's a way of maintaining morale and engaging the members, but greater impact than social media and the news cycle? No. Things have moved on, but the party establishments and core members don't want to believe that could be true.
I don't think it has no impact whatsoever, but I think it is fairly minimal, and most areas do not even get the kind of concerted, targeted effort that might conceivably make a difference at the margins, so even if it really does have more impact than I think it is not universal in any case.
Disagree:
1. Don't forget outdoor advertising is basically the only advertising that has seen rates rise since online and social.
2. A lot of voting is tactical-ish. You vote for a party you like, and a party you think could win. That's why the LibDems make such an effort to build up councillor bases and the like.
I suspect the Reforgasm has peaked already. Farage won a news cycle in the air war, and that’s that. But ground level activity matters too, and we all know that he can’t manage it.
He got over 5 million votes and 30% in the 2019 Euro elections. I wouldn't bet on him getting fewer votes than that this time.
Most of those 5m were a Tory vote strike, using it to tell May to sling her hook....
May was more popular than Sunak in these parts.
May was identifiably “one of us”. I don’t even mean this in a racist way. She just exuded middle England.
Sunak is the junior consultant from McKinsey who had come to size you up for potential efficiencies.
Yep, and he's not on the partnership track at McKinsey.
Isn't McKinsey a place where no promotion to the partnership track you are pretty quickly a gonna? There no real hanging around in the same job for very long.
You get 4 to 5 years of working 16 hour days, and then you are gently encouraged to depart.
That's more forgiving than i thought. Amazon its more like Wipeout game show, only 1 in a load even make the 4 year mark. At every stage there is new dicey obstacle ready for a Ed Davey to fall off.
And yet HR managers ask you 'why did you leave your last company after a year?' As if you're expected to show loyalty to them when no employer shows loyalty to you.
'Welcome to our family,' they say, when hiring you. 'It's not personal, it's just business' in the round of layoffs next year.
In Tech, Amazon a particularly bad reputation for this. I think everybody knows it and a lot of it stiffing people of their share options that are less front loaded than a google. I don't think it hurts their future employment, rather it's probably a positive for recruiters that they got hired by Amazon in the first place.
I suspect the Reforgasm has peaked already. Farage won a news cycle in the air war, and that’s that. But ground level activity matters too, and we all know that he can’t manage it.
He got over 5 million votes and 30% in the 2019 Euro elections. I wouldn't bet on him getting fewer votes than that this time.
Absolute nonsense comment. What was the turnout in the 2019 Euros? And how many of those 30% were “Get Brexit Done” Tories?
Ok, if you reject that precedent, he got almost 4m votes in 2015 when up against Cameron in his prime. I find it difficult to believe he won't outperform numbers like that this time around.
That was Farage's 7th FPTP failure as I recall, and the only one elected for UKIP was Carswell who had brought a good number of activists over with him from the Cons and had an established network in the constituency.
The framing now is completely different.
Then it was: sensible Tory vs nutter who wants to leave the EU
Now it is: pointless Tory vs populist who wants to give the establishment an electoral kicking
Farage has never been in the electoral sweet spot like this before.
Sure, but Farage also suffers from being loathed by a section of the population, which is why I think @Heathener's description of him as Corbyn-like is so accurate.
The question is, is it 2017 magic grandpa "ohhhhh Jereeemmmmy" Corbyn or 2019 damaged good antisemitic enabler Corbyn.
Neither. His party will get fewer votes than either. A Maximum Farage is less than half a Minimum Corbyn.
For example — Battersea is forecast to be a Labour win by 20%, compared to 11% last time, which is a swing of only 4.5%. Why such a low swing in a London seat?
Looks like Labour really are going to get less than 40%.
It's the gap that matters. Somehow I think they'll survive the disappointment if they get 40 or just below.
Indeed. Any good reason why 40% is seen as an important milestone? Why not 45% or 50%? FPP is about winning seats. That is the entire point of the system.
I suspect the Reforgasm has peaked already. Farage won a news cycle in the air war, and that’s that. But ground level activity matters too, and we all know that he can’t manage it.
He got over 5 million votes and 30% in the 2019 Euro elections. I wouldn't bet on him getting fewer votes than that this time.
Most of those 5m were a Tory vote strike, using it to tell May to sling her hook....
The one that might be a bit more relevant is the 3.8 million votes UKIP got in the 2015 general election.
Still only got them one seat though. The Faragist vote distribution is horrible- not really high enough and definitely not spiky enough.
Absolutely. And the ground game is practically non-existent, in part because those Reformers enthusiastic enough to actually door-knock are really bloody odd.
I don't know in todays world how important door knocking is (beyond knowing who might vote for whom). Reform have a very friendly tv channel in GB News (which also gets large viewership on things like YouTube) and there is social media which even the oldies are on the FaceAche, in fact they are the only ones on that these days.
Ground game has basically been negated by social media.
I don't think that's entirely true.
Physical presence still matters, and that covers a panoply of things from councillors, to stalls in the High Street, to posters in windows, and even to tellers at polling stations.
I think it matters more for low turnout elections or minor areas (eg a council election), but for the rest I think activists are fooling themselves. It's a way of maintaining morale and engaging the members, but greater impact than social media and the news cycle? No. Things have moved on, but the party establishments and core members don't want to believe that could be true.
I don't think it has no impact whatsoever, but I think it is fairly minimal, and most areas do not even get the kind of concerted, targeted effort that might conceivably make a difference at the margins, so even if it really does have more impact than I think it is not universal in any case.
Disagree:
1. Don't forget outdoor advertising is basically the only advertising that has seen rates rise since online and social.
2. A lot of voting is tactical-ish. You vote for a party you like, and a party you think could win. That's why the LibDems make such an effort to build up councillor bases and the like.
We shall have to agree to disagree. I just go on gut, and I've seen what I consider impact from a really outsized local effort, but translating that up to parliamentary level, when even high effort is hard to cover across an entire area, and then seeing that be significant on a wider scale when most areas do not really get all that much attention as party attention is highly targeted?
I don't buy it above a few unusual examples. Now, I could certainly be wrong about that. But the people doing the hard yards and boring jobs in a campaign? I think they have an internal bias towards seeing it as vital to events, precisely because its hard to motivate to do it otherwise.
Party members also faithfully show up to stand behind the Prime Minister holding signs next to the local candidate, does that sort of thing also make a difference?
I suspect the Reforgasm has peaked already. Farage won a news cycle in the air war, and that’s that. But ground level activity matters too, and we all know that he can’t manage it.
He got over 5 million votes and 30% in the 2019 Euro elections. I wouldn't bet on him getting fewer votes than that this time.
Most of those 5m were a Tory vote strike, using it to tell May to sling her hook....
May was more popular than Sunak in these parts.
May was identifiably “one of us”. I don’t even mean this in a racist way. She just exuded middle England.
Sunak is the junior consultant from McKinsey who had come to size you up for potential efficiencies.
Yep, and he's not on the partnership track at McKinsey.
Isn't McKinsey a place where no promotion to the partnership track you are pretty quickly a gonna? There no real hanging around in the same job for very long.
You get 4 to 5 years of working 16 hour days, and then you are gently encouraged to depart.
That's more forgiving than i thought. Amazon its more like Wipeout game show, only 1 in a load even make the 4 year mark. At every stage there is new dicey obstacle ready for a Ed Davey to fall off.
And yet HR managers ask you 'why did you leave your last company after a year?' As if you're expected to show loyalty to them when no employer shows loyalty to you.
'Welcome to our family,' they say, when hiring you. 'It's not personal, it's just business' in the round of layoffs next year.
In Tech, Amazon a particularly bad reputation for this. I think everybody knows it and a lot of it stiffing people of their share options that are less front loaded than a google. I don't think it hurts their future employment, rather it's probably a positive for recruiters that they got hired by Amazon in the first place.
I read a bio of Bezos and the early days of Amazon, and unsurprisingly the man himself seems like he is a huge arsehole (a billionaire an arsehole? Unheard of), but it was a bit more surprising to me that apparently Amazon did not offer the kind of employee perks that was apparently quite common at the tech firms in the area. A lot of hard work, to be sure, but also not even springing for things like employee parking or the like.
I suspect the Reforgasm has peaked already. Farage won a news cycle in the air war, and that’s that. But ground level activity matters too, and we all know that he can’t manage it.
He got over 5 million votes and 30% in the 2019 Euro elections. I wouldn't bet on him getting fewer votes than that this time.
Most of those 5m were a Tory vote strike, using it to tell May to sling her hook....
May was more popular than Sunak in these parts.
May was identifiably “one of us”. I don’t even mean this in a racist way. She just exuded middle England.
Sunak is the junior consultant from McKinsey who had come to size you up for potential efficiencies.
Yep, and he's not on the partnership track at McKinsey.
Isn't McKinsey a place where no promotion to the partnership track you are pretty quickly a gonna? There no real hanging around in the same job for very long.
You get 4 to 5 years of working 16 hour days, and then you are gently encouraged to depart.
That's more forgiving than i thought. Amazon its more like Wipeout game show, only 1 in a load even make the 4 year mark. At every stage there is new dicey obstacle ready for a Ed Davey to fall off.
And yet HR managers ask you 'why did you leave your last company after a year?' As if you're expected to show loyalty to them when no employer shows loyalty to you.
'Welcome to our family,' they say, when hiring you. 'It's not personal, it's just business' in the round of layoffs next year.
In Tech, Amazon a particularly bad reputation for this. I think everybody knows it and a lot of it stiffing people of their share options that are less front loaded than a google. I don't think it hurts their future employment, rather it's probably a positive for recruiters that they got hired by Amazon in the first place.
I read a bio of Bezos and the early days of Amazon, and unsurprisingly the man himself seems like he is a huge arsehole (a billionaire an arsehole? Unheard of), but it was a bit more surprising to me that apparently Amazon did not offer the kind of employee perks that was apparently quite common at the tech firms in the area. A lot of hard work, to be sure, but also not even springing for things like employee parking or the like.
I presume it has hurt the company in the end e.g. Alexa has been very costly and a big failure. AWS obviously makes them a lot of money, but they don't need the top of the top tier talent for that in the way that the advances in LLM appears to need e.g. Google don't know what the secret sauce OpenAI and Anthropic have figured out, despite infinite resources and been the first to come up with things like the Transformer.
Looks like Labour really are going to get less than 40%.
It's the gap that matters. Somehow I think they'll survive the disappointment if they get 40 or just below.
Indeed. Any good reason why 40% is seen as an important milestone?
Probably because Corbyn got 40%. So it would be seen as him not being very popular after all.
Corbyn's accolytes would probably regard it as most unfair if Keir cannot exceed that, or even comes under it, but he gets to be the PM with a massive majority. But them's the breaks - Corbyn did well in 2017, but Theresa May and the Conservatives were more popular.
Of course, now the Tories look set to halve their vote from 2019, which should 60-75% reduce their MPs
If Bairstow or Brook had got out early as well, England could have been in a world of trouble. Why no Jacks is just bizarre.
Not as bizarre as no Wood. He would have scared their batsmen on this pitch.
I guess they were worried about going for lots of runs. But yes, the thing that players who are lesser can't cope is insane pace. There is just a massive difference between 80-85, then getting between 85-90, and then the insanity of 95.
I found this out myself. I faced 80-85 most weekends and was ok. On rare occasion, I faced 85-90, and was in a world of hurt. I don't even want to think about 95.
There's a story about when Hank Aaron was asked to help with some coaching of an exceptional young minor league hitter who had really struggled when called up to the Majors at the Braves' preseason camp. He patiently explained how you could watch each of the various 95mph + pitchers and pick up where the fingers were positioned and which way the ball was rotating, at what speed, and how you should adjust your shoulders, stance and swing in response, depending on whether you wanted to make a base hit or saw a chance of a possible home run. And how you could just know it would be a ball safely left. "Does that answer your questions?" he said. "Not really. How do you see the fucking ball?" was the reply. Hank never coached.
They did some experiments where they strapped cameras to different ability players helmets for cricket. The "watch the ball" is nonsense when you reach these speeds, they found the elite players watch the release point and immediately their eyes moves to where the ball will pitch. The difference is they are right most of the time, other lesser players guesses are off even after using bowling machines.
And the pros definitely aren't "watching it onto the bat". They watch release, move head / body to best play where it will pitch, play shot. It is why all these change-ups (borrowed from baseball) are effective, it totally messes with their learned behaviour. Benny Howell has become a highly effective cricketer in T20 because he has mastered all these change of pace deliveries.
For baseball, there have been funny experiments where they have got major league batters to try to hit slower pitches and they really struggle, because again all their training / experience doesn't marry with what they are used to. Obviously after a short while they can adjust, but initially it is really hard for them. Its why the knuckle ball pitcher was popular for a while, despite throwing at such slow speeds.
Strangely. This is reminiscent of a little PB conversation I had about a week ago about graduates in teaching. And about SEN kids outside even special schools, and working in PRU's. Am constantly asked by my colleagues how I manage it. How I maintain total calm in the face of horrific behaviour and exceptional panic attacks. Whilst being hit, kicked and bitten. How I keep them safe while they are standing on a railway bridge or platform threatening to chuck themselves off. In a state of no thought. No anxiety. No worry. Even when I'm physically blocking them from a moving InterCity. And then re establish a positive relationship with the child inside an hour. We laugh uproariously about it. And move on. The truthful answer is I don't know. Have been asked to train people up. I wouldn't know how to. I do know my possession of an honours degree from a Russell Group University is fuck all use in that moment. Nor did anyone teach me this. I'm a spectacularly useless classroom teacher of compliant kids who want to learn. I can't transmit knowledge. I'm not interesting. But I can get a knife off a dysregulated kid better than anyone I've ever seen. Because it's an art, not a Science. Find out what you're good at and lean in to it.
As someone whose first instinct upon learning how to do something is to try to codify into something I can explain or teach, this is fascinating. At school, a teacher I admired said you don't understand something until you can explain it to others. But then he was talking about maths, not managing troubled children!
There's a heck of a lot of theory, literature and research. But it all boils down to at a certain point you must use simple instructions and remain calm when the amygdala has taken over. None of it ever suggests HOW you should do that. Or how you should establish a relationship so they're likely to even consider you for a second when it has. I mean. You can know that, but I've seen SENCO's and Deputy Heads lose it
Robert Jenrick using very strong language to describe a potential Labour government.
"Jenrick: I share voters’ frustrations but backing Reform means a Labour dictatorship Ex-immigration minister says the success of Nigel Farage’s party threatens to kill off conservatism"
For example — Battersea is forecast to be a Labour win by 20%, compared to 11% last time, which is a swing of only 4.5%. Why such a low swing in a London seat?
There is a top-end to swing: perhap's it's saturated, so to speak.
Did you see this? Happy to pay money to you or a charity of your choice (cash only!)
Robert Jenrick using very strong language to describe a potential Labour government.
"Jenrick: I share voters’ frustrations but backing Reform means a Labour dictatorship Ex-immigration minister says the success of Nigel Farage’s party threatens to kill off conservatism"
Maybe he should address the point to colleagues of his in Parliament and without. As despondent as the party is most of them seem not to be keen to cross Farage.
A lot of people on here confident that the Tories will outperform expectations and end up on 150-200 seats.
I notice 150-200 is 10.0 on BF Exchange and 200-250 is 50.0.
Surely some of you bullish on the Tories should go for that?
It's not a bad idea. What we really need is an Andy_JS spreadsheet. Andy, will you be pulling together a spreadsheet for break-even in-time for election night 2024?
Just seen this. I was thinking of doing one, but since I haven't started yet I may have left it a bit late. Thanks for asking.
Very surprised by Mid Leicestershire. That's mostly the former Charnwood seat, which has quite a high Asian population.
I think that one in particular is inexplicable.
I misread it initially as NW Leicestershire, Andrew Bridgen's former seat, which would make a lot more sense.
It would do, but as well as Reform Bridgen is standing again, splitting the right wing vote.
Narrow Labour win IMO.
Without a party label I doubt Bridgen will be getting much of the vote. What does he offer anyone? Anti-vax theories and an in ability to make friends it seems.
Robert Jenrick using very strong language to describe a potential Labour government.
"Jenrick: I share voters’ frustrations but backing Reform means a Labour dictatorship Ex-immigration minister says the success of Nigel Farage’s party threatens to kill off conservatism"
The Telegraph are rather going a bit loopy tunes on this. They had a piece on how your newborn will never see a non-Labour government until they are adults. 4 terms in parliament when Starmer isn't even the new messiah, he's not Obama, he's not Blair and the wider Labour team is nowhere near as strong as Tony Blair first cabinet. And of course starting from a far worse position than 1997 in terms of poor growth, high taxes, etc.
The Tories obviously hope the scare tactics work, but you can overdo and be the boy that cried wolf.
Chatting to a friend tonight who's been campaigning for Labour in Gillingham. She says people were a bit sceptical about Starmer but seemed pretty receptive to Labour's message overall.
Robert Jenrick using very strong language to describe a potential Labour government.
"Jenrick: I share voters’ frustrations but backing Reform means a Labour dictatorship Ex-immigration minister says the success of Nigel Farage’s party threatens to kill off conservatism"
I am surprised sometimes what things mostly non-political people do or do not pick up. Even prior to the GE campaign I knew at least one person who had taken on board the idea Starmer has no ideas and just flip flops all the time. They are not planning to vote for anyone, but they don't watch live TV and seem fairly casual in following the news, so it's interesting they picked that up (and that they think Sunak is a snake).
The SNP score is particularly disappointing for me and I find it hard to relate to what I am seeing on the ground in Scotland. The SNP are almost invisible because they have no money. We have had 1 leaflet from the SNP and 6 from the Tories (neither Labour nor the Lib Dems are wasting their time in this constituency, I am not even sure Reform are standing). This is in an SNP seat.
Will that make a difference, other than to the recycling bins? Who knows, but it is a long time since the SNP have had so little impact in a major election. I will be gutted if they pick up 37 seats, gutted.
On the ground in ANME: Tories - their freepost is dropping. Addressed to household not voter. No other activity that we are aware of SNP - no money but plenty of bodies. Extensively doorknocking. Labour - nothing at all Reform - nothing at all LibDem - selected doorknocking. We're targeting key wards rather than the whole constituency. Targets will get quite a lot of stuff through the letterbox. Plus a targeted Facebook ad campaign which will be pretty intensive in the remaining weeks
As for the SNP, we're getting that much of their vote is softer than usual. A lot of upset about the state of public services. The odd mention of corruption. Frequent mentions of arrogance and being taken for granted...
I guess likely outcome there is Tories & SNP in mid-30s with Lab 3rd and Libs 4th. Think Ross will edge it. Sorry, but I doubt there is a huge suppressed LibDem vote just waiting to surge out from Buckie, Fraserburgh and Peterhead.
Its possible! You've said a couple of times that there isn't a suppressed LD vote - it isn't suppressed! We have councillors! As for finishing behind Labour? Sure - could happen. But there is no sign of a Labour vote here either - finished 4th in 2019 and have zero representation.
Ross vs Logan? I think Logan. Ross is deeply unpopular even amongst his own people - they leaked the "we think his expenses are dodgy" story last weekend and provided quotes to the newspaper...
It was quite the thing, to see a Tory getting the Rayner treatment from his own side. Even - especially - if it did not come to anything in the end.
Plenty came of it. IPSA have cleared his dirty laundry as clean. Fine. Respect that. Not sure all the people who saw them will feel the same. It smells wrong, even if it is in order. In an election, feel matters way more than fact.
His newly adopted local association threw him under the bus. With what they believed to be a scandal they had helped cover up. Complete with quotes. *Even the Tories* felt it was wrong, rules or not.
The key scandal remains the abrupt sacking of Duguid. Tories demand that sick peopl go back to work - unless they are in the way. That action is definitely wrong, and the stench remains pungent.
If Ross turns up to the hustings on Thursday it could be interesting.
BTW - I expect you have seen the news about the suggested reopening of the railway to the Broch and Peterheid?
That looks rather panglossian from an advocacy group - they are kitchen-sinking everything, including making lots of assumptions and not mentioning downsides, because they want to build a railway.
From the link.
The Buchan Sustainable Transport Study has found that rerailing Fraserburgh and Peterhead could reduce 75% of serious or fatal accidents on the road
Do they actually mean reduce KS by 75% because of a partial railway alternative? All being equal, that will require a reduction of ~75% in traffic, or other intervention to slow them down. Given reduced traffic, I'd expect them to go faster. What interventions on the roads are proposed?
Robert Jenrick using very strong language to describe a potential Labour government.
"Jenrick: I share voters’ frustrations but backing Reform means a Labour dictatorship Ex-immigration minister says the success of Nigel Farage’s party threatens to kill off conservatism"
Robert Jenrick using very strong language to describe a potential Labour government.
"Jenrick: I share voters’ frustrations but backing Reform means a Labour dictatorship Ex-immigration minister says the success of Nigel Farage’s party threatens to kill off conservatism"
Robert Jenrick using very strong language to describe a potential Labour government.
"Jenrick: I share voters’ frustrations but backing Reform means a Labour dictatorship Ex-immigration minister says the success of Nigel Farage’s party threatens to kill off conservatism"
Jenrick may very well share voters frustration. What he will not share is jjust how disgusted many of us are, and how we cannot wait to vote the bastards out.
Jenrick may very well share voters frustration. What he will not share is jjust how disgusted many of us are, and how we cannot wait to vote the bastards out.
I'm sure like all MPs he would be heartened by a show of voter enthusiasm.
Robert Jenrick using very strong language to describe a potential Labour government.
"Jenrick: I share voters’ frustrations but backing Reform means a Labour dictatorship Ex-immigration minister says the success of Nigel Farage’s party threatens to kill off conservatism"
Robert Jenrick using very strong language to describe a potential Labour government.
"Jenrick: I share voters’ frustrations but backing Reform means a Labour dictatorship Ex-immigration minister says the success of Nigel Farage’s party threatens to kill off conservatism"
Funny because he started off as one of the most moderate Tory MPs if I remember correctly.
He has always been a slimey toad looking to his own political advancement. When appearing to be a moderate was necessary he did that. Once the Patel and Braverman right wing authoritarin tendency came to the fore in the Tory party he was delighted to embrace that.
Robert Jenrick using very strong language to describe a potential Labour government.
"Jenrick: I share voters’ frustrations but backing Reform means a Labour dictatorship Ex-immigration minister says the success of Nigel Farage’s party threatens to kill off conservatism"
By the way, on the topic of the Survation MRP poll. They claim it is the first MRP poll conducted since Farage announced his return to front line politics. This is not strictly true.
Farage announced he was taking the leadership of Reform and standing in the election on Monday 3rd June.
The Survation MRP survey dates were from Friday 31st May to Thursday 13th June. So perhaps 25% of the polling (or over 10,000 of the respondents) had been conducted before Farage's announcement.
Not sure if this makes much difference to the results but it is worth bearing in mind.
I think its pretty safe to say if there was going to be any sort of bomb shell story it would have been this evening. Instead the paper are really dull.
It was good enough that you had about 45 minutes to short cable after Sunderland iirc (been a while)
This election will be far more complicated of course and barring anything absolutely bizarre financial markets will be unmoved. So the potential gains will be much lower from a wholistic point of view. The political markets are going to be much more fun though despite their relatively low stakes. I'm loving it.
Anyone think this can meaningfully move US political markets? I can't see how (barring Reform on 40%) but maybe something I've not thought of?
Comments
It's much harder to attack him on domestic policies when a lot of his positions are popular.
"You're shit but your girls are fit..."
Am constantly asked by my colleagues how I manage it. How I maintain total calm in the face of horrific behaviour and exceptional panic
attacks. Whilst being hit, kicked and bitten. How I keep them safe while they are standing on a railway bridge or platform threatening to chuck themselves off. In a state of no thought. No anxiety. No worry. Even when I'm physically blocking them from a moving InterCity. And then re establish a positive relationship with the child inside an hour.
We laugh uproariously about it. And move on.
The truthful answer is I don't know. Have been asked to train people up. I wouldn't know how to.
I do know my possession of an honours degree from a Russell Group University is fuck all use in that moment.
Nor did anyone teach me this.
I'm a spectacularly useless classroom teacher of compliant kids who want to learn. I can't transmit knowledge. I'm not interesting.
But I can get a knife off a dysregulated kid better than anyone I've ever seen.
Because it's an art, not a Science.
Find out what you're good at and lean in to it.
It’s a shame, because I’d LOVE to see the Ed Davey shadow frontbench in action. Can you imagine - a sustained LIBERAL opposition to the overweening Starmerite Five Year Plan?
However, the manifesto isn't serious, its a total shit show. Their leader is rubbish at politics, but they are running a campaign like he has Obama levels of popularity.
I am not sure they could do much worse if they tried. I might say they catch Sunak saying Hitler wasn't a bad bloke after all, but that would probably steal some Reform UK vote.
Now, he's got a platform and people can either support it or oppose it. And whilst some people clearly do support it, it's currently not enough to trouble the scorers much in FPTP. Neither does it mean that he would bring much to a RefCon union.
(RefCon have totalled about 30-35 percent fairly steadily through the Rishi years. Put them in one party and it would add up to less- both some relative wets and some hard reformers wouldn't want anything to do with that. Besides, even 35 percent isn't a winning score.)
https://x.com/JuliaHB1/status/1015687307578544132?t=2X5UFV4wQBoQ7VHLvnYY4A&s=19
Then it was: sensible Tory vs nutter who wants to leave the EU
Now it is: pointless Tory vs populist who wants to give the establishment an electoral kicking
Farage has never been in the electoral sweet spot like this before.
The running gag on “Some Mothers Do ‘Ave ‘Em” was that Frank Spencer would try a new job every week - with catastrophic effects. That’s basically Rishi Sunak as campaigning Prime Minister.
“Ooh Betty, the shih-tzu’s done a woopsie on the Rothko”.
There is no point having a social democratic LD main opposition to a social democratic Labour government led by Starmer.
So I suspect the Tories will hold on as main opposition on seats as well as votes as almost all the latest polls now suggest
I notice 150-200 is 10.0 on BF Exchange and 200-250 is 50.0.
Surely some of you bullish on the Tories should go for that?
It could be a hit sitcom about a billionaire heiress whose son-in-law is desperate to impress her but always ends up making a mess.
And even if Farage can't win himself, he can destroy the Conservatives. But destruction is always the easy bit.
Seems worth a solid 10-15% to me.
Its quite a spectacular omnishambles from the Tories.
Probably they'll want me to teach A level.
I'll have to hand in my notice. They've expelled my three favourite kids.
Sorry for burdening you with the bit which really does cause me anxiety.
I'm a little unusual.
I do think any serious punter needs to take into account that this is a much harder election to poll than normal. Look at the raw numbers (where available) and test out a few assumptions yourself.
And certain scenarios could be crazily volatile. The one @williamglenn posted here: https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4836590#Comment_4836590
Would be orgasmic for trading. Market maker's dream. If it came to pass...
Sunak has no feel for people, hence his D Day gaffe. It simply wasn't important to him, because he put in what he thought was the required number of hours then went off to do something else. Maximising efficiency, and all that.
*I may have one of those myself, so I know of what I speak.
Physical presence still matters, and that covers a panoply of things from councillors, to stalls in the High Street, to posters in windows, and even to tellers at polling stations.
Don’t see it as likely mind. He doesn’t seem the sort to fancy any hard work.
Thanks for just letting me write down my anxieties.
I'm terrified the School will "give me a deserved break" by putting me into the class my qualifications would suggest.
I just want to work with the most damaged. Just leave me and a couple of others to do it, without interference, and they wouldn't be out of school.
Thanks for the safe space. I'm already a load less anxious for having a forum to physically write down my unusual anxiety.
Farage is hateful, racist scum.
His party is rancid.
His followers admire Putin and the wrong side from WWII.
They're worse than even Galloway's lot.
I don't think it has no impact whatsoever, but I think it is fairly minimal, and most areas do not even get the kind of concerted, targeted effort that might conceivably make a difference at the margins, so even if it really does have more impact than I think it is not universal in any case.
38-39.99 -> 4.6
40-41.99 -> 5.2
42-43.99 -> 5.9
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.223276482
'Welcome to our family,' they say, when hiring you.
'It's not personal, it's just business' in the round of layoffs next year.
1. Don't forget outdoor advertising is basically the only advertising that has seen rates rise since online and social.
2. A lot of voting is tactical-ish. You vote for a party you like, and a party you think could win. That's why the LibDems make such an effort to build up councillor bases and the like.
For example — Battersea is forecast to be a Labour win by 20%, compared to 11% last time, which is a swing of only 4.5%. Why such a low swing in a London seat?
I don't buy it above a few unusual examples. Now, I could certainly be wrong about that. But the people doing the hard yards and boring jobs in a campaign? I think they have an internal bias towards seeing it as vital to events, precisely because its hard to motivate to do it otherwise.
Party members also faithfully show up to stand behind the Prime Minister holding signs next to the local candidate, does that sort of thing also make a difference?
Narrow Labour win IMO.
Corbyn's accolytes would probably regard it as most unfair if Keir cannot exceed that, or even comes under it, but he gets to be the PM with a massive majority. But them's the breaks - Corbyn did well in 2017, but Theresa May and the Conservatives were more popular.
Of course, now the Tories look set to halve their vote from 2019, which should 60-75% reduce their MPs
But it all boils down to at a certain point you must use simple instructions and remain calm when the amygdala has taken over.
None of it ever suggests HOW you should do that.
Or how you should establish a relationship so they're likely to even consider you for a second when it has.
I mean. You can know that, but I've seen SENCO's and Deputy Heads lose it
"Jenrick: I share voters’ frustrations but backing Reform means a Labour dictatorship
Ex-immigration minister says the success of Nigel Farage’s party threatens to kill off conservatism"
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/15/robert-jenrick-reform-vote-labour-elective-dictatorship/
Did you see this? Happy to pay money to you or a charity of your choice (cash only!)
https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4837581#Comment_4837581
The Tories obviously hope the scare tactics work, but you can overdo and be the boy that cried wolf.
From the link.
The Buchan Sustainable Transport Study has found that rerailing Fraserburgh and Peterhead could reduce 75% of serious or fatal accidents on the road
Do they actually mean reduce KS by 75% because of a partial railway alternative? All being equal, that will require a reduction of ~75% in traffic, or other intervention to slow them down. Given reduced traffic, I'd expect them to go faster. What interventions on the roads are proposed?
And other similars.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jun/24/robert-jenrick-planning-row-the-key-questions-answered
You reap what you sow.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hCtN3IY76azcr_6OiFPvZI0eXi_8JJqxT7d8vNhW2Do/edit?gid=0#gid=0
https://www.survation.com/mrp-update-first-mrp-since-farages-return/
https://electionresults.parliament.uk/elections/2041
(Listening to Trevor Nelson's review of Sade's debut album Diamond Life on Radio 2 at the same time as looking at the MRP results. 😊 )
Chris Huhne, for example.
Enfield North — swing of 0.7% from Lab to Con
Lab down 10.1%
Con down 8.7%
https://www.survation.com/mrp-update-first-mrp-since-farages-return/
https://electionresults.parliament.uk/elections/2183
Farage announced he was taking the leadership of Reform and standing in the election on Monday 3rd June.
The Survation MRP survey dates were from Friday 31st May to Thursday 13th June. So perhaps 25% of the polling (or over 10,000 of the respondents) had been conducted before Farage's announcement.
Not sure if this makes much difference to the results but it is worth bearing in mind.
- Popbitch, "Mullet Prevalence"
This election will be far more complicated of course and barring anything absolutely bizarre financial markets will be unmoved. So the potential gains will be much lower from a wholistic point of view. The political markets are going to be much more fun though despite their relatively low stakes. I'm loving it.
Anyone think this can meaningfully move US political markets? I can't see how (barring Reform on 40%) but maybe something I've not thought of?