The vast majority of Tory digital advertising money will go out in the final 48 hours of the campaign, as happened in 2019. It seems more likely to feature images of Starmer than Sunak, however keyed up the prime minister may now be.
There was a moment last weekend when one of Rishi Sunak’s closest allies thought he had thrown in the towel. Badly bruised by the fury about his decision to come home early from the D-Day commemorations, the prime minister contemplated a disappearing act. “He was in a really bad way at the weekend,” one confidant revealed. “He wasn’t going to quit, but he was mulling whether he needed to completely remove himself from the election and let other people do it.”
On Monday, however, Sunak had snapped out of his depression. One of those who was on his 2022 leadership team, when he lost to Liz Truss, said: “He’s like he was then. He was down for the first half of the campaign and then he decided he was just going to throw everything at it. His attitude is that he has to go out and swing for the fences.”
The whole Tory campaign is just weird. They keep persisting with President Sunak approach, but it clearly isn't working. Does he think he is way more popular than the party or something?
They came out going all Reform-y with National Service, then the manifesto was totally the opposite, no red meat for natural Tory voter.
Nothing makes any sense. And these are the people who called in the GE in the first place.
The australian election guru guy will never work again I guess after this.
Tories will be within 2% either way of 30% come the election.
If that plays out, there are going to be some very funny threads to re-read....
The thing is, if the Tories and Labour were going to squeeze the smaller parties we'd be able to see it in the trends by now. at each of the last three elections the squeeze started as soon as the election was called. this time the trends have all been the other way, Labour and Tory trending down LibDems, Reform and, to a lesser extent, Greens going up
The SNP score is particularly disappointing for me and I find it hard to relate to what I am seeing on the ground in Scotland. The SNP are almost invisible because they have no money. We have had 1 leaflet from the SNP and 6 from the Tories (neither Labour nor the Lib Dems are wasting their time in this constituency, I am not even sure Reform are standing). This is in an SNP seat.
Will that make a difference, other than to the recycling bins? Who knows, but it is a long time since the SNP have had so little impact in a major election. I will be gutted if they pick up 37 seats, gutted.
On the ground in ANME: Tories - their freepost is dropping. Addressed to household not voter. No other activity that we are aware of SNP - no money but plenty of bodies. Extensively doorknocking. Labour - nothing at all Reform - nothing at all LibDem - selected doorknocking. We're targeting key wards rather than the whole constituency. Targets will get quite a lot of stuff through the letterbox. Plus a targeted Facebook ad campaign which will be pretty intensive in the remaining weeks
As for the SNP, we're getting that much of their vote is softer than usual. A lot of upset about the state of public services. The odd mention of corruption. Frequent mentions of arrogance and being taken for granted...
I guess likely outcome there is Tories & SNP in mid-30s with Lab 3rd and Libs 4th. Think Ross will edge it. Sorry, but I doubt there is a huge suppressed LibDem vote just waiting to surge out from Buckie, Fraserburgh and Peterhead.
Its possible! You've said a couple of times that there isn't a suppressed LD vote - it isn't suppressed! We have councillors! As for finishing behind Labour? Sure - could happen. But there is no sign of a Labour vote here either - finished 4th in 2019 and have zero representation.
Ross vs Logan? I think Logan. Ross is deeply unpopular even amongst his own people - they leaked the "we think his expenses are dodgy" story last weekend and provided quotes to the newspaper...
It was quite the thing, to see a Tory getting the Rayner treatment from his own side. Even - especially - if it did not come to anything in the end.
Plenty came of it. IPSA have cleared his dirty laundry as clean. Fine. Respect that. Not sure all the people who saw them will feel the same. It smells wrong, even if it is in order. In an election, feel matters way more than fact.
His newly adopted local association threw him under the bus. With what they believed to be a scandal they had helped cover up. Complete with quotes. *Even the Tories* felt it was wrong, rules or not.
The key scandal remains the abrupt sacking of Duguid. Tories demand that sick peopl go back to work - unless they are in the way. That action is definitely wrong, and the stench remains pungent.
If Ross turns up to the hustings on Thursday it could be interesting.
The SNP score is particularly disappointing for me and I find it hard to relate to what I am seeing on the ground in Scotland. The SNP are almost invisible because they have no money. We have had 1 leaflet from the SNP and 6 from the Tories (neither Labour nor the Lib Dems are wasting their time in this constituency, I am not even sure Reform are standing). This is in an SNP seat.
Will that make a difference, other than to the recycling bins? Who knows, but it is a long time since the SNP have had so little impact in a major election. I will be gutted if they pick up 37 seats, gutted.
On the ground in ANME: Tories - their freepost is dropping. Addressed to household not voter. No other activity that we are aware of SNP - no money but plenty of bodies. Extensively doorknocking. Labour - nothing at all Reform - nothing at all LibDem - selected doorknocking. We're targeting key wards rather than the whole constituency. Targets will get quite a lot of stuff through the letterbox. Plus a targeted Facebook ad campaign which will be pretty intensive in the remaining weeks
As for the SNP, we're getting that much of their vote is softer than usual. A lot of upset about the state of public services. The odd mention of corruption. Frequent mentions of arrogance and being taken for granted...
I guess likely outcome there is Tories & SNP in mid-30s with Lab 3rd and Libs 4th. Think Ross will edge it. Sorry, but I doubt there is a huge suppressed LibDem vote just waiting to surge out from Buckie, Fraserburgh and Peterhead.
Its possible! You've said a couple of times that there isn't a suppressed LD vote - it isn't suppressed! We have councillors! As for finishing behind Labour? Sure - could happen. But there is no sign of a Labour vote here either - finished 4th in 2019 and have zero representation.
Ross vs Logan? I think Logan. Ross is deeply unpopular even amongst his own people - they leaked the "we think his expenses are dodgy" story last weekend and provided quotes to the newspaper...
It was quite the thing, to see a Tory getting the Rayner treatment from his own side. Even - especially - if it did not come to anything in the end.
Plenty came of it. IPSA have cleared his dirty laundry as clean. Fine. Respect that. Not sure all the people who saw them will feel the same. It smells wrong, even if it is in order. In an election, feel matters way more than fact.
His newly adopted local association threw him under the bus. With what they believed to be a scandal they had helped cover up. Complete with quotes. *Even the Tories* felt it was wrong, rules or not.
The key scandal remains the abrupt sacking of Duguid. Tories demand that sick peopl go back to work - unless they are in the way. That action is definitely wrong, and the stench remains pungent.
If Ross turns up to the hustings on Thursday it could be interesting.
Do report back, please. Edit: after the election, if need be.
In 2010 FSG bought Liverpool FC and they also own the Boston Red Sox team, so I dug deep to find out what kind of owners they would be based on their tenure of the Red Sox.
There was a moment last weekend when one of Rishi Sunak’s closest allies thought he had thrown in the towel. Badly bruised by the fury about his decision to come home early from the D-Day commemorations, the prime minister contemplated a disappearing act. “He was in a really bad way at the weekend,” one confidant revealed. “He wasn’t going to quit, but he was mulling whether he needed to completely remove himself from the election and let other people do it.”
On Monday, however, Sunak had snapped out of his depression. One of those who was on his 2022 leadership team, when he lost to Liz Truss, said: “He’s like he was then. He was down for the first half of the campaign and then he decided he was just going to throw everything at it. His attitude is that he has to go out and swing for the fences.”
The whole Tory campaign is just weird. They keep persisting with President Sunak approach, but it clearly isn't working. Does he think he is way more popular than the party or something?
They came out going all Reform-y with National Service, then the manifesto was totally the opposite, no red meat for natural Tory voter.
Nothing makes any sense. And these are the people who called in the GE in the first place.
The presidentialism is a big problem. Illustrated by Sunak going to the King for a dissolution without seeing it necessary to consult the cabinet first.
The only time we have had proper cabinet government in my adult lifetime was during the coalition, and it shows.
New polling by Charlesbye Communications shows that Cameron is the public’s preferred candidate to assume the leadership again after the election. He was on 25 per cent, with Farage on 20 per cent, one point ahead of Mordaunt, with the current bookmakers’ favourite Kemi Badenoch on 8 per cent. In the same survey, 2019 Tory voters put Mordaunt top on 27 per cent, three ahead of Cameron and four ahead of Farage, with Badenoch on 6 per cent.
As I was saying, we need the Cameron party (incorporating the Lib Dems) and the Farage party (incorporating the ERG and a bit of old Labour).
The job of the next Tory leader is to unite the right. It can't be someone who repels part of the voter coalition they need to put back together. At the mo I would say Penny Mordaunt seems best-placed.
Reform’s aim must be to get 15% and at least one seat: Farage
Farage then stands a chance of doing a reverse-takeover of the rump Tory party post-election, if the Tories end up with ~20-22% and 70-110 seats
I think it’s highly unlikely (but not impossible) they can overtake the Tories in total votes and essentially impossible for them to do it in terms of seats
Seeing the loyalty to Brand Tory on the doorsteps, the only way Reform poll 15% is for Labour to shed some significant votes to them. I don't see there being any chance Reform overtake the Conservatives in actual votes. The Conservatives can then tell Farage to spin on it - and begin to build their vote share on the back of Labour being a disaster.
Yes, and polls are consistent with this narrative: Conservative vote down by less than 50%. But in fairness, they also consistently have Conservatives down by around 40%. Some of your reportage sounds like the vote is very sticky and loyal - maybe down by 10%, ending up on 39% nationally?
My initial assessment of the final result when the election was called was Labour 38% Conservative 32%.
After D-Day, that 32% looks out of reach. But 30%? Maybe....
New polling by Charlesbye Communications shows that Cameron is the public’s preferred candidate to assume the leadership again after the election. He was on 25 per cent, with Farage on 20 per cent, one point ahead of Mordaunt, with the current bookmakers’ favourite Kemi Badenoch on 8 per cent. In the same survey, 2019 Tory voters put Mordaunt top on 27 per cent, three ahead of Cameron and four ahead of Farage, with Badenoch on 6 per cent.
The SNP score is particularly disappointing for me and I find it hard to relate to what I am seeing on the ground in Scotland. The SNP are almost invisible because they have no money. We have had 1 leaflet from the SNP and 6 from the Tories (neither Labour nor the Lib Dems are wasting their time in this constituency, I am not even sure Reform are standing). This is in an SNP seat.
Will that make a difference, other than to the recycling bins? Who knows, but it is a long time since the SNP have had so little impact in a major election. I will be gutted if they pick up 37 seats, gutted.
On the ground in ANME: Tories - their freepost is dropping. Addressed to household not voter. No other activity that we are aware of SNP - no money but plenty of bodies. Extensively doorknocking. Labour - nothing at all Reform - nothing at all LibDem - selected doorknocking. We're targeting key wards rather than the whole constituency. Targets will get quite a lot of stuff through the letterbox. Plus a targeted Facebook ad campaign which will be pretty intensive in the remaining weeks
As for the SNP, we're getting that much of their vote is softer than usual. A lot of upset about the state of public services. The odd mention of corruption. Frequent mentions of arrogance and being taken for granted...
I guess likely outcome there is Tories & SNP in mid-30s with Lab 3rd and Libs 4th. Think Ross will edge it. Sorry, but I doubt there is a huge suppressed LibDem vote just waiting to surge out from Buckie, Fraserburgh and Peterhead.
Its possible! You've said a couple of times that there isn't a suppressed LD vote - it isn't suppressed! We have councillors! As for finishing behind Labour? Sure - could happen. But there is no sign of a Labour vote here either - finished 4th in 2019 and have zero representation.
Ross vs Logan? I think Logan. Ross is deeply unpopular even amongst his own people - they leaked the "we think his expenses are dodgy" story last weekend and provided quotes to the newspaper...
Interesting. I just suspect there may be a latent Labour vote in the larger towns which could appear. Buckie used to elect Labour cllrs not so long ago. I don't know anything about Logan except someone telling me he was pro-Sinn Fein. Not sure if thst is right. The "expenses story" btw went nowhere - Ross was exonerated by the parliamentary authorities despite Swinney's harrumphing.
It didn't go nowhere. His Own People leaked it to the press believing the claims were "dodgy". That he is the candidate is beyond dodgy, a lot of voters think it fits a narrative that the entire party is "dodgy".
I will not be surprised if we do not get more blue on blue before the campaign ends. The sheer rage of local Tories as to what happened is something to behold.
EDIT - no Labour presence in Cullen or Buckie. No candidates stood in 2022
New polling by Charlesbye Communications shows that Cameron is the public’s preferred candidate to assume the leadership again after the election. He was on 25 per cent, with Farage on 20 per cent, one point ahead of Mordaunt, with the current bookmakers’ favourite Kemi Badenoch on 8 per cent. In the same survey, 2019 Tory voters put Mordaunt top on 27 per cent, three ahead of Cameron and four ahead of Farage, with Badenoch on 6 per cent.
As I was saying, we need the Cameron party (incorporating the Lib Dems) and the Farage party (incorporating the ERG and a bit of old Labour).
The job of the next Tory leader is to unite the right. It can't be someone who repels part of the voter coalition they need to put back together. At the mo I would say Penny Mordaunt seems best-placed.
Mordaunt loses her Portsmouth N seat to Labour on most current polls, Labour won it in 1997
The SNP score is particularly disappointing for me and I find it hard to relate to what I am seeing on the ground in Scotland. The SNP are almost invisible because they have no money. We have had 1 leaflet from the SNP and 6 from the Tories (neither Labour nor the Lib Dems are wasting their time in this constituency, I am not even sure Reform are standing). This is in an SNP seat.
Will that make a difference, other than to the recycling bins? Who knows, but it is a long time since the SNP have had so little impact in a major election. I will be gutted if they pick up 37 seats, gutted.
On the ground in ANME: Tories - their freepost is dropping. Addressed to household not voter. No other activity that we are aware of SNP - no money but plenty of bodies. Extensively doorknocking. Labour - nothing at all Reform - nothing at all LibDem - selected doorknocking. We're targeting key wards rather than the whole constituency. Targets will get quite a lot of stuff through the letterbox. Plus a targeted Facebook ad campaign which will be pretty intensive in the remaining weeks
As for the SNP, we're getting that much of their vote is softer than usual. A lot of upset about the state of public services. The odd mention of corruption. Frequent mentions of arrogance and being taken for granted...
I guess likely outcome there is Tories & SNP in mid-30s with Lab 3rd and Libs 4th. Think Ross will edge it. Sorry, but I doubt there is a huge suppressed LibDem vote just waiting to surge out from Buckie, Fraserburgh and Peterhead.
Its possible! You've said a couple of times that there isn't a suppressed LD vote - it isn't suppressed! We have councillors! As for finishing behind Labour? Sure - could happen. But there is no sign of a Labour vote here either - finished 4th in 2019 and have zero representation.
Ross vs Logan? I think Logan. Ross is deeply unpopular even amongst his own people - they leaked the "we think his expenses are dodgy" story last weekend and provided quotes to the newspaper...
It was quite the thing, to see a Tory getting the Rayner treatment from his own side. Even - especially - if it did not come to anything in the end.
Plenty came of it. IPSA have cleared his dirty laundry as clean. Fine. Respect that. Not sure all the people who saw them will feel the same. It smells wrong, even if it is in order. In an election, feel matters way more than fact.
His newly adopted local association threw him under the bus. With what they believed to be a scandal they had helped cover up. Complete with quotes. *Even the Tories* felt it was wrong, rules or not.
The key scandal remains the abrupt sacking of Duguid. Tories demand that sick peopl go back to work - unless they are in the way. That action is definitely wrong, and the stench remains pungent.
If Ross turns up to the hustings on Thursday it could be interesting.
BTW - I expect you have seen the news about the suggested reopening of the railway to the Broch and Peterheid?
Cricket...its on like Fat Pat thong. 11 overs a side.
Meanwhile Surrey vs Sussex on Youtube is proving moderately entertaining, if only for the contribution of Jamie Smith. I hadn't heard of him previously and he looks tremendous.
New polling by Charlesbye Communications shows that Cameron is the public’s preferred candidate to assume the leadership again after the election. He was on 25 per cent, with Farage on 20 per cent, one point ahead of Mordaunt, with the current bookmakers’ favourite Kemi Badenoch on 8 per cent. In the same survey, 2019 Tory voters put Mordaunt top on 27 per cent, three ahead of Cameron and four ahead of Farage, with Badenoch on 6 per cent.
As I was saying, we need the Cameron party (incorporating the Lib Dems) and the Farage party (incorporating the ERG and a bit of old Labour).
The job of the next Tory leader is to unite the right. It can't be someone who repels part of the voter coalition they need to put back together. At the mo I would say Penny Mordaunt seems best-placed.
That's assuming that the voter coalition they need to build is the same as the old one.
There was a moment last weekend when one of Rishi Sunak’s closest allies thought he had thrown in the towel. Badly bruised by the fury about his decision to come home early from the D-Day commemorations, the prime minister contemplated a disappearing act. “He was in a really bad way at the weekend,” one confidant revealed. “He wasn’t going to quit, but he was mulling whether he needed to completely remove himself from the election and let other people do it.”
On Monday, however, Sunak had snapped out of his depression. One of those who was on his 2022 leadership team, when he lost to Liz Truss, said: “He’s like he was then. He was down for the first half of the campaign and then he decided he was just going to throw everything at it. His attitude is that he has to go out and swing for the fences.”
The SNP score is particularly disappointing for me and I find it hard to relate to what I am seeing on the ground in Scotland. The SNP are almost invisible because they have no money. We have had 1 leaflet from the SNP and 6 from the Tories (neither Labour nor the Lib Dems are wasting their time in this constituency, I am not even sure Reform are standing). This is in an SNP seat.
Will that make a difference, other than to the recycling bins? Who knows, but it is a long time since the SNP have had so little impact in a major election. I will be gutted if they pick up 37 seats, gutted.
On the ground in ANME: Tories - their freepost is dropping. Addressed to household not voter. No other activity that we are aware of SNP - no money but plenty of bodies. Extensively doorknocking. Labour - nothing at all Reform - nothing at all LibDem - selected doorknocking. We're targeting key wards rather than the whole constituency. Targets will get quite a lot of stuff through the letterbox. Plus a targeted Facebook ad campaign which will be pretty intensive in the remaining weeks
As for the SNP, we're getting that much of their vote is softer than usual. A lot of upset about the state of public services. The odd mention of corruption. Frequent mentions of arrogance and being taken for granted...
I guess likely outcome there is Tories & SNP in mid-30s with Lab 3rd and Libs 4th. Think Ross will edge it. Sorry, but I doubt there is a huge suppressed LibDem vote just waiting to surge out from Buckie, Fraserburgh and Peterhead.
Its possible! You've said a couple of times that there isn't a suppressed LD vote - it isn't suppressed! We have councillors! As for finishing behind Labour? Sure - could happen. But there is no sign of a Labour vote here either - finished 4th in 2019 and have zero representation.
Ross vs Logan? I think Logan. Ross is deeply unpopular even amongst his own people - they leaked the "we think his expenses are dodgy" story last weekend and provided quotes to the newspaper...
It was quite the thing, to see a Tory getting the Rayner treatment from his own side. Even - especially - if it did not come to anything in the end.
Plenty came of it. IPSA have cleared his dirty laundry as clean. Fine. Respect that. Not sure all the people who saw them will feel the same. It smells wrong, even if it is in order. In an election, feel matters way more than fact.
His newly adopted local association threw him under the bus. With what they believed to be a scandal they had helped cover up. Complete with quotes. *Even the Tories* felt it was wrong, rules or not.
The key scandal remains the abrupt sacking of Duguid. Tories demand that sick peopl go back to work - unless they are in the way. That action is definitely wrong, and the stench remains pungent.
If Ross turns up to the hustings on Thursday it could be interesting.
The Duguid thing is very unfortunate and delicate. He most certainly was not thrown under a bus. Circumstances made his candidature unviable. He's not just a bit sick I'm afraid. It's a sad situation.
New polling by Charlesbye Communications shows that Cameron is the public’s preferred candidate to assume the leadership again after the election. He was on 25 per cent, with Farage on 20 per cent, one point ahead of Mordaunt, with the current bookmakers’ favourite Kemi Badenoch on 8 per cent. In the same survey, 2019 Tory voters put Mordaunt top on 27 per cent, three ahead of Cameron and four ahead of Farage, with Badenoch on 6 per cent.
As I was saying, we need the Cameron party (incorporating the Lib Dems) and the Farage party (incorporating the ERG and a bit of old Labour).
The job of the next Tory leader is to unite the right. It can't be someone who repels part of the voter coalition they need to put back together. At the mo I would say Penny Mordaunt seems best-placed.
Mordaunt loses her Portsmouth N seat to Labour on most current polls, Labour won it in 1997
More to the point, she doesn't really unite the right. Too woke.
New polling by Charlesbye Communications shows that Cameron is the public’s preferred candidate to assume the leadership again after the election. He was on 25 per cent, with Farage on 20 per cent, one point ahead of Mordaunt, with the current bookmakers’ favourite Kemi Badenoch on 8 per cent. In the same survey, 2019 Tory voters put Mordaunt top on 27 per cent, three ahead of Cameron and four ahead of Farage, with Badenoch on 6 per cent.
How many of that 25% would still vote for Starmer or the LDs even with Cameron Tory leader though? If Cameron also leads a Tory members poll then that would be more significant
New polling by Charlesbye Communications shows that Cameron is the public’s preferred candidate to assume the leadership again after the election. He was on 25 per cent, with Farage on 20 per cent, one point ahead of Mordaunt, with the current bookmakers’ favourite Kemi Badenoch on 8 per cent. In the same survey, 2019 Tory voters put Mordaunt top on 27 per cent, three ahead of Cameron and four ahead of Farage, with Badenoch on 6 per cent.
How can Cameron be leader when he isn't even an MP?
Lord etc. etc.
You can be Prime Minister as a Lord, but you can't be leader of the Conservative and Unionist Party.
Bit early to assume that - with Mr Sunak dumped, who knows if it isn't the PM rather than the mere administrative job of leading a political party that the public had in mind?
But fair enough. Although they can change the rules very quickly, presumably? I've just finished Patrick Bishop's biography of A. Neave MP which, in part, covered his role in the defenestration of E. Heath and his replacemebnt by one M. Thatcher, a key element of which was a complere replacement of the voting rules.
There was a moment last weekend when one of Rishi Sunak’s closest allies thought he had thrown in the towel. Badly bruised by the fury about his decision to come home early from the D-Day commemorations, the prime minister contemplated a disappearing act. “He was in a really bad way at the weekend,” one confidant revealed. “He wasn’t going to quit, but he was mulling whether he needed to completely remove himself from the election and let other people do it.”
On Monday, however, Sunak had snapped out of his depression. One of those who was on his 2022 leadership team, when he lost to Liz Truss, said: “He’s like he was then. He was down for the first half of the campaign and then he decided he was just going to throw everything at it. His attitude is that he has to go out and swing for the fences.”
There was a moment last weekend when one of Rishi Sunak’s closest allies thought he had thrown in the towel. Badly bruised by the fury about his decision to come home early from the D-Day commemorations, the prime minister contemplated a disappearing act. “He was in a really bad way at the weekend,” one confidant revealed. “He wasn’t going to quit, but he was mulling whether he needed to completely remove himself from the election and let other people do it.”
On Monday, however, Sunak had snapped out of his depression. One of those who was on his 2022 leadership team, when he lost to Liz Truss, said: “He’s like he was then. He was down for the first half of the campaign and then he decided he was just going to throw everything at it. His attitude is that he has to go out and swing for the fences.”
He is no good at swinging for fences. Boring competence is what he could - should - have offered.
Unfortunately after all the epic cock-ups he's made nobody will believe him if he offers it and it probably wouldn't be enough anyway.
Rishi got 43% in the 2022 Tory leadership vote with the members, that was closer than expected mid campaign when polls had a Truss landslide with the membership.
The final debate one on one with Starmer with no Farage a week before polling day is Rishi's chance to make his final case to undecideds
Sunak lost to Truss. A woman so lazy, incompetent and arrogant she was comprehensively outmanoeuvred by that fat drunken old weirdo Sergey Lavrov. Losing to her at all, even with that electorate was a profound humiliation.
Sunak lost to Truss by less than Clarke lost to IDS, Hunt lost to Boris and Davis lost to Cameron
The vast majority of Tory digital advertising money will go out in the final 48 hours of the campaign, as happened in 2019. It seems more likely to feature images of Starmer than Sunak, however keyed up the prime minister may now be.
I want them to send out an image of Putin standing in front of, say, the destruction of Mariupol.
New polling by Charlesbye Communications shows that Cameron is the public’s preferred candidate to assume the leadership again after the election. He was on 25 per cent, with Farage on 20 per cent, one point ahead of Mordaunt, with the current bookmakers’ favourite Kemi Badenoch on 8 per cent. In the same survey, 2019 Tory voters put Mordaunt top on 27 per cent, three ahead of Cameron and four ahead of Farage, with Badenoch on 6 per cent.
How can Cameron be leader when he isn't even an MP?
Lord etc. etc.
You can be Prime Minister as a Lord, but you can't be leader of the Conservative and Unionist Party.
Bit early to assume that - with Mr Sunak dumped, who knows if it isn't the PM rather than the mere administrative job of leading a political party that the public had in mind?
But fair enough. Although they can change the rules very quickly, presumably? I've just finished Patrick Bishop's biography of A. Neave MP which, in part, covered his role in the defenestration of E. Heath and his replacemebnt by one M. Thatcher, a key element of which was a complere replacement of the voting rules.
Not sure the "public's preferred candidate" remotely matches the tory membership's idea of the preferred candidate to be honest.
New polling by Charlesbye Communications shows that Cameron is the public’s preferred candidate to assume the leadership again after the election. He was on 25 per cent, with Farage on 20 per cent, one point ahead of Mordaunt, with the current bookmakers’ favourite Kemi Badenoch on 8 per cent. In the same survey, 2019 Tory voters put Mordaunt top on 27 per cent, three ahead of Cameron and four ahead of Farage, with Badenoch on 6 per cent.
There was a moment last weekend when one of Rishi Sunak’s closest allies thought he had thrown in the towel. Badly bruised by the fury about his decision to come home early from the D-Day commemorations, the prime minister contemplated a disappearing act. “He was in a really bad way at the weekend,” one confidant revealed. “He wasn’t going to quit, but he was mulling whether he needed to completely remove himself from the election and let other people do it.”
On Monday, however, Sunak had snapped out of his depression. One of those who was on his 2022 leadership team, when he lost to Liz Truss, said: “He’s like he was then. He was down for the first half of the campaign and then he decided he was just going to throw everything at it. His attitude is that he has to go out and swing for the fences.”
New polling by Charlesbye Communications shows that Cameron is the public’s preferred candidate to assume the leadership again after the election. He was on 25 per cent, with Farage on 20 per cent, one point ahead of Mordaunt, with the current bookmakers’ favourite Kemi Badenoch on 8 per cent. In the same survey, 2019 Tory voters put Mordaunt top on 27 per cent, three ahead of Cameron and four ahead of Farage, with Badenoch on 6 per cent.
As I was saying, we need the Cameron party (incorporating the Lib Dems) and the Farage party (incorporating the ERG and a bit of old Labour).
The job of the next Tory leader is to unite the right. It can't be someone who repels part of the voter coalition they need to put back together. At the mo I would say Penny Mordaunt seems best-placed.
Mordaunt loses her Portsmouth N seat to Labour on most current polls, Labour won it in 1997
More to the point, she doesn't really unite the right. Too woke.
Ironically probably the best candidate to unite the right would be Rees Mogg, a Tory but close friends with Farage and hugely popular with Leavers.
He may not turn on swing voters anymore than Corbyn did but he could unite the right behind him in the same way Corbyn united the left behind him
There was a moment last weekend when one of Rishi Sunak’s closest allies thought he had thrown in the towel. Badly bruised by the fury about his decision to come home early from the D-Day commemorations, the prime minister contemplated a disappearing act. “He was in a really bad way at the weekend,” one confidant revealed. “He wasn’t going to quit, but he was mulling whether he needed to completely remove himself from the election and let other people do it.”
On Monday, however, Sunak had snapped out of his depression. One of those who was on his 2022 leadership team, when he lost to Liz Truss, said: “He’s like he was then. He was down for the first half of the campaign and then he decided he was just going to throw everything at it. His attitude is that he has to go out and swing for the fences.”
Can anyone advise me on what "swing for the fences" means?
It's baseball, when you try and hit the ball so hard you get a home run.
That still doesn't mean anything to normal sentient hominines.
In baseball, several ways in which runs may be achieved and scored; one is for the batter to hit the ball to the outer reaches of the outfield, so the ball a) leaves the ball park; or b) takes so long to field and throw back that the batter crosses home plate after circuiting (counter-clockwise) all three bases.
IF the batter achieves this with three teammates already on base (one each) that's a grand slam.
(Which some traveling Brits may also have encountered as a breakfast special at Denny's.)
New polling by Charlesbye Communications shows that Cameron is the public’s preferred candidate to assume the leadership again after the election. He was on 25 per cent, with Farage on 20 per cent, one point ahead of Mordaunt, with the current bookmakers’ favourite Kemi Badenoch on 8 per cent. In the same survey, 2019 Tory voters put Mordaunt top on 27 per cent, three ahead of Cameron and four ahead of Farage, with Badenoch on 6 per cent.
As I was saying, we need the Cameron party (incorporating the Lib Dems) and the Farage party (incorporating the ERG and a bit of old Labour).
The job of the next Tory leader is to unite the right. It can't be someone who repels part of the voter coalition they need to put back together. At the mo I would say Penny Mordaunt seems best-placed.
Mordaunt loses her Portsmouth N seat to Labour on most current polls, Labour won it in 1997
How much of a personal vote does Mordaunt have? As a possible future leader, does that buy her some extra support?
New polling by Charlesbye Communications shows that Cameron is the public’s preferred candidate to assume the leadership again after the election. He was on 25 per cent, with Farage on 20 per cent, one point ahead of Mordaunt, with the current bookmakers’ favourite Kemi Badenoch on 8 per cent. In the same survey, 2019 Tory voters put Mordaunt top on 27 per cent, three ahead of Cameron and four ahead of Farage, with Badenoch on 6 per cent.
As I was saying, we need the Cameron party (incorporating the Lib Dems) and the Farage party (incorporating the ERG and a bit of old Labour).
The job of the next Tory leader is to unite the right. It can't be someone who repels part of the voter coalition they need to put back together. At the mo I would say Penny Mordaunt seems best-placed.
Mordaunt loses her Portsmouth N seat to Labour on most current polls, Labour won it in 1997
More to the point, she doesn't really unite the right. Too woke.
Ironically probably the best candidate to unite the right would be Rees Mogg, a Tory but close friends with Farage and hugely popular with Leavers.
He may not turn on swing voters anymore than Corbyn did but he could unite the right behind him in the same way Corbyn united the left behind him
The SNP score is particularly disappointing for me and I find it hard to relate to what I am seeing on the ground in Scotland. The SNP are almost invisible because they have no money. We have had 1 leaflet from the SNP and 6 from the Tories (neither Labour nor the Lib Dems are wasting their time in this constituency, I am not even sure Reform are standing). This is in an SNP seat.
Will that make a difference, other than to the recycling bins? Who knows, but it is a long time since the SNP have had so little impact in a major election. I will be gutted if they pick up 37 seats, gutted.
On the ground in ANME: Tories - their freepost is dropping. Addressed to household not voter. No other activity that we are aware of SNP - no money but plenty of bodies. Extensively doorknocking. Labour - nothing at all Reform - nothing at all LibDem - selected doorknocking. We're targeting key wards rather than the whole constituency. Targets will get quite a lot of stuff through the letterbox. Plus a targeted Facebook ad campaign which will be pretty intensive in the remaining weeks
As for the SNP, we're getting that much of their vote is softer than usual. A lot of upset about the state of public services. The odd mention of corruption. Frequent mentions of arrogance and being taken for granted...
I guess likely outcome there is Tories & SNP in mid-30s with Lab 3rd and Libs 4th. Think Ross will edge it. Sorry, but I doubt there is a huge suppressed LibDem vote just waiting to surge out from Buckie, Fraserburgh and Peterhead.
Its possible! You've said a couple of times that there isn't a suppressed LD vote - it isn't suppressed! We have councillors! As for finishing behind Labour? Sure - could happen. But there is no sign of a Labour vote here either - finished 4th in 2019 and have zero representation.
Ross vs Logan? I think Logan. Ross is deeply unpopular even amongst his own people - they leaked the "we think his expenses are dodgy" story last weekend and provided quotes to the newspaper...
It was quite the thing, to see a Tory getting the Rayner treatment from his own side. Even - especially - if it did not come to anything in the end.
Plenty came of it. IPSA have cleared his dirty laundry as clean. Fine. Respect that. Not sure all the people who saw them will feel the same. It smells wrong, even if it is in order. In an election, feel matters way more than fact.
His newly adopted local association threw him under the bus. With what they believed to be a scandal they had helped cover up. Complete with quotes. *Even the Tories* felt it was wrong, rules or not.
The key scandal remains the abrupt sacking of Duguid. Tories demand that sick peopl go back to work - unless they are in the way. That action is definitely wrong, and the stench remains pungent.
If Ross turns up to the hustings on Thursday it could be interesting.
The Duguid thing is very unfortunate and delicate. He most certainly was not thrown under a bus. Circumstances made his candidature unviable. He's not just a bit sick I'm afraid. It's a sad situation.
In no way was his candidature unviable. He would not be able to campaign in person. His team would continue to push his name and his message as he continues to recover.
Remember that he remained on the candidate list and was selected whilst far more seriously ill than he is now. And he is getting better every day.
What they did to him was genuinely disgusting. And from what I read / hear it is universally felt.
New polling by Charlesbye Communications shows that Cameron is the public’s preferred candidate to assume the leadership again after the election. He was on 25 per cent, with Farage on 20 per cent, one point ahead of Mordaunt, with the current bookmakers’ favourite Kemi Badenoch on 8 per cent. In the same survey, 2019 Tory voters put Mordaunt top on 27 per cent, three ahead of Cameron and four ahead of Farage, with Badenoch on 6 per cent.
How can Cameron be leader when he isn't even an MP?
Lord etc. etc.
You can be Prime Minister as a Lord, but you can't be leader of the Conservative and Unionist Party.
Bit early to assume that - with Mr Sunak dumped, who knows if it isn't the PM rather than the mere administrative job of leading a political party that the public had in mind?
But fair enough. Although they can change the rules very quickly, presumably? I've just finished Patrick Bishop's biography of A. Neave MP which, in part, covered his role in the defenestration of E. Heath and his replacemebnt by one M. Thatcher, a key element of which was a complere replacement of the voting rules.
Michael Howard tried to change the rules back when he was the leader and had to give it up. It was a lot easier to do before Hague wrote the leadership election rules into the Party constitution.
Bit of a strange decision from England in the cricket. 11 overs a side and you drop Will Jacks for another bowler. Don't you want a line-up packed with those that will swing for the fences ;-)
The vast majority of Tory digital advertising money will go out in the final 48 hours of the campaign, as happened in 2019. It seems more likely to feature images of Starmer than Sunak, however keyed up the prime minister may now be.
I want them to send out an image of Putin standing in front of, say, the destruction of Mariupol.
With little Farage in his top pocket.
The real cost of Farage.
It's possible that the Tories have more to gain (or less to lose) at this stage of proceedings by savagely attacking Farage rather than just going after Starmer. There's more ammunition to use, for a start, and it may be easier to win back the Reform vote than the Labour vote.
New polling by Charlesbye Communications shows that Cameron is the public’s preferred candidate to assume the leadership again after the election. He was on 25 per cent, with Farage on 20 per cent, one point ahead of Mordaunt, with the current bookmakers’ favourite Kemi Badenoch on 8 per cent. In the same survey, 2019 Tory voters put Mordaunt top on 27 per cent, three ahead of Cameron and four ahead of Farage, with Badenoch on 6 per cent.
As I was saying, we need the Cameron party (incorporating the Lib Dems) and the Farage party (incorporating the ERG and a bit of old Labour).
The job of the next Tory leader is to unite the right. It can't be someone who repels part of the voter coalition they need to put back together. At the mo I would say Penny Mordaunt seems best-placed.
Mordaunt loses her Portsmouth N seat to Labour on most current polls, Labour won it in 1997
More to the point, she doesn't really unite the right. Too woke.
Ironically probably the best candidate to unite the right would be Rees Mogg, a Tory but close friends with Farage and hugely popular with Leavers.
He may not turn on swing voters anymore than Corbyn did but he could unite the right behind him in the same way Corbyn united the left behind him
The red wall is not going to vote for Rees Mogg.
Is Somerset going to vote for Rees Mogg? The current Labour mayor of the West of England is standing against him.
That Reform seat list doesn't pass the smell test. The unexpectedly good SNP total might, however. The woad and tartan hardcore of the pro-independence vote is quite large, and they don't really have anywhere else to go. Nobody thinks the Scottish Greens or Alba are going to win any seats.
I maintain my assumption that the Tory membership will probably install Suella as the next leader, assuming that she is returned.
I pointed out that he got the same grades as you at A-level, in the same year, and therefore a wise man would not boast about how hard they were.
I am consulting my lawyers.
I hope for your sake they're better than the lawyers who were defending a recent small claim I brought.
Filled in the wrong form, forgot the witness statement, failed to meet the filing deadline. Lost the case by default. Now appealing by filing the paperwork three months after deadline and three weeks after judgement
(By the way, it was your advice to sue there, so thank you.)
The SNP score is particularly disappointing for me and I find it hard to relate to what I am seeing on the ground in Scotland. The SNP are almost invisible because they have no money. We have had 1 leaflet from the SNP and 6 from the Tories (neither Labour nor the Lib Dems are wasting their time in this constituency, I am not even sure Reform are standing). This is in an SNP seat.
Will that make a difference, other than to the recycling bins? Who knows, but it is a long time since the SNP have had so little impact in a major election. I will be gutted if they pick up 37 seats, gutted.
On the ground in ANME: Tories - their freepost is dropping. Addressed to household not voter. No other activity that we are aware of SNP - no money but plenty of bodies. Extensively doorknocking. Labour - nothing at all Reform - nothing at all LibDem - selected doorknocking. We're targeting key wards rather than the whole constituency. Targets will get quite a lot of stuff through the letterbox. Plus a targeted Facebook ad campaign which will be pretty intensive in the remaining weeks
As for the SNP, we're getting that much of their vote is softer than usual. A lot of upset about the state of public services. The odd mention of corruption. Frequent mentions of arrogance and being taken for granted...
I guess likely outcome there is Tories & SNP in mid-30s with Lab 3rd and Libs 4th. Think Ross will edge it. Sorry, but I doubt there is a huge suppressed LibDem vote just waiting to surge out from Buckie, Fraserburgh and Peterhead.
Its possible! You've said a couple of times that there isn't a suppressed LD vote - it isn't suppressed! We have councillors! As for finishing behind Labour? Sure - could happen. But there is no sign of a Labour vote here either - finished 4th in 2019 and have zero representation.
Ross vs Logan? I think Logan. Ross is deeply unpopular even amongst his own people - they leaked the "we think his expenses are dodgy" story last weekend and provided quotes to the newspaper...
It was quite the thing, to see a Tory getting the Rayner treatment from his own side. Even - especially - if it did not come to anything in the end.
Plenty came of it. IPSA have cleared his dirty laundry as clean. Fine. Respect that. Not sure all the people who saw them will feel the same. It smells wrong, even if it is in order. In an election, feel matters way more than fact.
His newly adopted local association threw him under the bus. With what they believed to be a scandal they had helped cover up. Complete with quotes. *Even the Tories* felt it was wrong, rules or not.
The key scandal remains the abrupt sacking of Duguid. Tories demand that sick peopl go back to work - unless they are in the way. That action is definitely wrong, and the stench remains pungent.
If Ross turns up to the hustings on Thursday it could be interesting.
The Duguid thing is very unfortunate and delicate. He most certainly was not thrown under a bus. Circumstances made his candidature unviable. He's not just a bit sick I'm afraid. It's a sad situation.
In no way was his candidature unviable. He would not be able to campaign in person. His team would continue to push his name and his message as he continues to recover.
Remember that he remained on the candidate list and was selected whilst far more seriously ill than he is now. And he is getting better every day.
What they did to him was genuinely disgusting. And from what I read / hear it is universally felt.
Also, MM, everyone knows the Tories have an erm rather different attitude to sickness and disability amongst the general populace. How odd that they have such a different approach when it's convenient to the local party leader.
Plus not letting the poor chap have a stab at recovering first is inherently discriminatory. If I were him, I'd be considering talking to the advocates of the West End of Edinburgh. Except that mr Ross will probably have lost the seat by then anyway, and retreated back to the MSP list seat which he is apparently not resigning after all.
There are tens, or even hundreds of thousands of BigGs out there. People who will say all sorts of things to pollsters, but who, in the quiet of the polling booth or discussing a postal vote with their wives over the kitchen table, will come home to the Tories.
There are no loyal Faragists. He’s a fling. A bit of rough. In the end they come back. Not the erstwhile Labour voters, they’re going back to that home, but the habitual Conservative voters.
That’s why the conservatives will end up with a vote share beginning with 3, and about 200 seats.
The SNP score is particularly disappointing for me and I find it hard to relate to what I am seeing on the ground in Scotland. The SNP are almost invisible because they have no money. We have had 1 leaflet from the SNP and 6 from the Tories (neither Labour nor the Lib Dems are wasting their time in this constituency, I am not even sure Reform are standing). This is in an SNP seat.
Will that make a difference, other than to the recycling bins? Who knows, but it is a long time since the SNP have had so little impact in a major election. I will be gutted if they pick up 37 seats, gutted.
On the ground in ANME: Tories - their freepost is dropping. Addressed to household not voter. No other activity that we are aware of SNP - no money but plenty of bodies. Extensively doorknocking. Labour - nothing at all Reform - nothing at all LibDem - selected doorknocking. We're targeting key wards rather than the whole constituency. Targets will get quite a lot of stuff through the letterbox. Plus a targeted Facebook ad campaign which will be pretty intensive in the remaining weeks
As for the SNP, we're getting that much of their vote is softer than usual. A lot of upset about the state of public services. The odd mention of corruption. Frequent mentions of arrogance and being taken for granted...
I guess likely outcome there is Tories & SNP in mid-30s with Lab 3rd and Libs 4th. Think Ross will edge it. Sorry, but I doubt there is a huge suppressed LibDem vote just waiting to surge out from Buckie, Fraserburgh and Peterhead.
Its possible! You've said a couple of times that there isn't a suppressed LD vote - it isn't suppressed! We have councillors! As for finishing behind Labour? Sure - could happen. But there is no sign of a Labour vote here either - finished 4th in 2019 and have zero representation.
Ross vs Logan? I think Logan. Ross is deeply unpopular even amongst his own people - they leaked the "we think his expenses are dodgy" story last weekend and provided quotes to the newspaper...
It was quite the thing, to see a Tory getting the Rayner treatment from his own side. Even - especially - if it did not come to anything in the end.
Plenty came of it. IPSA have cleared his dirty laundry as clean. Fine. Respect that. Not sure all the people who saw them will feel the same. It smells wrong, even if it is in order. In an election, feel matters way more than fact.
His newly adopted local association threw him under the bus. With what they believed to be a scandal they had helped cover up. Complete with quotes. *Even the Tories* felt it was wrong, rules or not.
The key scandal remains the abrupt sacking of Duguid. Tories demand that sick peopl go back to work - unless they are in the way. That action is definitely wrong, and the stench remains pungent.
If Ross turns up to the hustings on Thursday it could be interesting.
The Duguid thing is very unfortunate and delicate. He most certainly was not thrown under a bus. Circumstances made his candidature unviable. He's not just a bit sick I'm afraid. It's a sad situation.
In no way was his candidature unviable. He would not be able to campaign in person. His team would continue to push his name and his message as he continues to recover.
Remember that he remained on the candidate list and was selected whilst far more seriously ill than he is now. And he is getting better every day.
What they did to him was genuinely disgusting. And from what I read / hear it is universally felt.
No. You're wrong. While opinions may vary about whether Douglas Ross was right to go for the seat - he's taking a huge risk - there is no controversy among those close to this that DD simply couldn't stand. Appreciate the optics look bad but that's the situation.
New polling by Charlesbye Communications shows that Cameron is the public’s preferred candidate to assume the leadership again after the election. He was on 25 per cent, with Farage on 20 per cent, one point ahead of Mordaunt, with the current bookmakers’ favourite Kemi Badenoch on 8 per cent. In the same survey, 2019 Tory voters put Mordaunt top on 27 per cent, three ahead of Cameron and four ahead of Farage, with Badenoch on 6 per cent.
There are tens, or even hundreds of thousands of BigGs out there. People who will say all sorts of things to pollsters, but who, in the quiet of the polling booth or discussing a postal vote with their wives over the kitchen table, will come home to the Tories.
There are no loyal Faragists. He’s a fling. A bit of rough. In the end they come back. Not the erstwhile Labour voters, they’re going back to that home, but the habitual Conservative voters.
That’s why the conservatives will end up with a vote share beginning with 3, and about 200 seats.
New polling by Charlesbye Communications shows that Cameron is the public’s preferred candidate to assume the leadership again after the election. He was on 25 per cent, with Farage on 20 per cent, one point ahead of Mordaunt, with the current bookmakers’ favourite Kemi Badenoch on 8 per cent. In the same survey, 2019 Tory voters put Mordaunt top on 27 per cent, three ahead of Cameron and four ahead of Farage, with Badenoch on 6 per cent.
As I was saying, we need the Cameron party (incorporating the Lib Dems) and the Farage party (incorporating the ERG and a bit of old Labour).
The job of the next Tory leader is to unite the right. It can't be someone who repels part of the voter coalition they need to put back together. At the mo I would say Penny Mordaunt seems best-placed.
Mordaunt loses her Portsmouth N seat to Labour on most current polls, Labour won it in 1997
How much of a personal vote does Mordaunt have? As a possible future leader, does that buy her some extra support?
It will be interesting to see how both Mordaunt and Mercer perform in terms of personal vote. Both will find it tough to retain their seats but it might be that personal vote makes all the difference. I can't see personal vote helping Rees Mogg unless it is because he has forced all his indentured tenants to vote for him.
There was a moment last weekend when one of Rishi Sunak’s closest allies thought he had thrown in the towel. Badly bruised by the fury about his decision to come home early from the D-Day commemorations, the prime minister contemplated a disappearing act. “He was in a really bad way at the weekend,” one confidant revealed. “He wasn’t going to quit, but he was mulling whether he needed to completely remove himself from the election and let other people do it.”
On Monday, however, Sunak had snapped out of his depression. One of those who was on his 2022 leadership team, when he lost to Liz Truss, said: “He’s like he was then. He was down for the first half of the campaign and then he decided he was just going to throw everything at it. His attitude is that he has to go out and swing for the fences.”
Can anyone advise me on what "swing for the fences" means?
It's baseball, when you try and hit the ball so hard you get a home run.
That still doesn't mean anything to normal sentient hominines.
In baseball, several ways in which runs may be achieved and scored; one is for the batter to hit the ball to the outer reaches of the outfield, so the ball a) leaves the ball park; or b) takes so long to field and throw back that the batter crosses home plate after circuiting (counter-clockwise) all three bases.
IF the batter achieves this with three teammates already on base (one each) that's a grand slam.
(Which some traveling Brits may also have encountered as a breakfast special at Denny's.)
FWIW, the commentators on the Sussex-Surrey match are talking about swinging for the fences. It wasn't a phrase I'd heard before today that I'd noticed - suddenly it's everywhere.
The SNP score is particularly disappointing for me and I find it hard to relate to what I am seeing on the ground in Scotland. The SNP are almost invisible because they have no money. We have had 1 leaflet from the SNP and 6 from the Tories (neither Labour nor the Lib Dems are wasting their time in this constituency, I am not even sure Reform are standing). This is in an SNP seat.
Will that make a difference, other than to the recycling bins? Who knows, but it is a long time since the SNP have had so little impact in a major election. I will be gutted if they pick up 37 seats, gutted.
On the ground in ANME: Tories - their freepost is dropping. Addressed to household not voter. No other activity that we are aware of SNP - no money but plenty of bodies. Extensively doorknocking. Labour - nothing at all Reform - nothing at all LibDem - selected doorknocking. We're targeting key wards rather than the whole constituency. Targets will get quite a lot of stuff through the letterbox. Plus a targeted Facebook ad campaign which will be pretty intensive in the remaining weeks
As for the SNP, we're getting that much of their vote is softer than usual. A lot of upset about the state of public services. The odd mention of corruption. Frequent mentions of arrogance and being taken for granted...
I guess likely outcome there is Tories & SNP in mid-30s with Lab 3rd and Libs 4th. Think Ross will edge it. Sorry, but I doubt there is a huge suppressed LibDem vote just waiting to surge out from Buckie, Fraserburgh and Peterhead.
Its possible! You've said a couple of times that there isn't a suppressed LD vote - it isn't suppressed! We have councillors! As for finishing behind Labour? Sure - could happen. But there is no sign of a Labour vote here either - finished 4th in 2019 and have zero representation.
Ross vs Logan? I think Logan. Ross is deeply unpopular even amongst his own people - they leaked the "we think his expenses are dodgy" story last weekend and provided quotes to the newspaper...
It was quite the thing, to see a Tory getting the Rayner treatment from his own side. Even - especially - if it did not come to anything in the end.
Plenty came of it. IPSA have cleared his dirty laundry as clean. Fine. Respect that. Not sure all the people who saw them will feel the same. It smells wrong, even if it is in order. In an election, feel matters way more than fact.
His newly adopted local association threw him under the bus. With what they believed to be a scandal they had helped cover up. Complete with quotes. *Even the Tories* felt it was wrong, rules or not.
The key scandal remains the abrupt sacking of Duguid. Tories demand that sick peopl go back to work - unless they are in the way. That action is definitely wrong, and the stench remains pungent.
If Ross turns up to the hustings on Thursday it could be interesting.
The Duguid thing is very unfortunate and delicate. He most certainly was not thrown under a bus. Circumstances made his candidature unviable. He's not just a bit sick I'm afraid. It's a sad situation.
In no way was his candidature unviable. He would not be able to campaign in person. His team would continue to push his name and his message as he continues to recover.
Remember that he remained on the candidate list and was selected whilst far more seriously ill than he is now. And he is getting better every day.
What they did to him was genuinely disgusting. And from what I read / hear it is universally felt.
No. You're wrong. While opinions may vary about whether Douglas Ross was right to go for the seat - he's taking a huge risk - there is no controversy among those close to this that DD simply couldn't stand. Appreciate the optics look bad but that's the situation.
But optics *are* part of politics. Mr Ross should have followed the other half of his seat - or just stopped being a pluralist tout court and stuck with his MSP seat.
There was a moment last weekend when one of Rishi Sunak’s closest allies thought he had thrown in the towel. Badly bruised by the fury about his decision to come home early from the D-Day commemorations, the prime minister contemplated a disappearing act. “He was in a really bad way at the weekend,” one confidant revealed. “He wasn’t going to quit, but he was mulling whether he needed to completely remove himself from the election and let other people do it.”
On Monday, however, Sunak had snapped out of his depression. One of those who was on his 2022 leadership team, when he lost to Liz Truss, said: “He’s like he was then. He was down for the first half of the campaign and then he decided he was just going to throw everything at it. His attitude is that he has to go out and swing for the fences.”
New polling by Charlesbye Communications shows that Cameron is the public’s preferred candidate to assume the leadership again after the election. He was on 25 per cent, with Farage on 20 per cent, one point ahead of Mordaunt, with the current bookmakers’ favourite Kemi Badenoch on 8 per cent. In the same survey, 2019 Tory voters put Mordaunt top on 27 per cent, three ahead of Cameron and four ahead of Farage, with Badenoch on 6 per cent.
As I was saying, we need the Cameron party (incorporating the Lib Dems) and the Farage party (incorporating the ERG and a bit of old Labour).
The job of the next Tory leader is to unite the right. It can't be someone who repels part of the voter coalition they need to put back together. At the mo I would say Penny Mordaunt seems best-placed.
Mordaunt loses her Portsmouth N seat to Labour on most current polls, Labour won it in 1997
How much of a personal vote does Mordaunt have? As a possible future leader, does that buy her some extra support?
It will be interesting to see how both Mordaunt and Mercer perform in terms of personal vote. Both will find it tough to retain their seats but it might be that personal vote makes all the difference. I can't see personal vote helping Rees Mogg unless it is because he has forced all his indentured tenants to vote for him.
There are tens, or even hundreds of thousands of BigGs out there. People who will say all sorts of things to pollsters, but who, in the quiet of the polling booth or discussing a postal vote with their wives over the kitchen table, will come home to the Tories.
There are no loyal Faragists. He’s a fling. A bit of rough. In the end they come back. Not the erstwhile Labour voters, they’re going back to that home, but the habitual Conservative voters.
That’s why the conservatives will end up with a vote share beginning with 3, and about 200 seats.
Do you fancy a bet on this?
Not a huge one, but let’s say £100. If Tories are 28% or above you pay me, if they are 24% or below I pay you, if 24-28 we call it quits.
The SNP score is particularly disappointing for me and I find it hard to relate to what I am seeing on the ground in Scotland. The SNP are almost invisible because they have no money. We have had 1 leaflet from the SNP and 6 from the Tories (neither Labour nor the Lib Dems are wasting their time in this constituency, I am not even sure Reform are standing). This is in an SNP seat.
Will that make a difference, other than to the recycling bins? Who knows, but it is a long time since the SNP have had so little impact in a major election. I will be gutted if they pick up 37 seats, gutted.
On the ground in ANME: Tories - their freepost is dropping. Addressed to household not voter. No other activity that we are aware of SNP - no money but plenty of bodies. Extensively doorknocking. Labour - nothing at all Reform - nothing at all LibDem - selected doorknocking. We're targeting key wards rather than the whole constituency. Targets will get quite a lot of stuff through the letterbox. Plus a targeted Facebook ad campaign which will be pretty intensive in the remaining weeks
As for the SNP, we're getting that much of their vote is softer than usual. A lot of upset about the state of public services. The odd mention of corruption. Frequent mentions of arrogance and being taken for granted...
I guess likely outcome there is Tories & SNP in mid-30s with Lab 3rd and Libs 4th. Think Ross will edge it. Sorry, but I doubt there is a huge suppressed LibDem vote just waiting to surge out from Buckie, Fraserburgh and Peterhead.
Its possible! You've said a couple of times that there isn't a suppressed LD vote - it isn't suppressed! We have councillors! As for finishing behind Labour? Sure - could happen. But there is no sign of a Labour vote here either - finished 4th in 2019 and have zero representation.
Ross vs Logan? I think Logan. Ross is deeply unpopular even amongst his own people - they leaked the "we think his expenses are dodgy" story last weekend and provided quotes to the newspaper...
It was quite the thing, to see a Tory getting the Rayner treatment from his own side. Even - especially - if it did not come to anything in the end.
Plenty came of it. IPSA have cleared his dirty laundry as clean. Fine. Respect that. Not sure all the people who saw them will feel the same. It smells wrong, even if it is in order. In an election, feel matters way more than fact.
His newly adopted local association threw him under the bus. With what they believed to be a scandal they had helped cover up. Complete with quotes. *Even the Tories* felt it was wrong, rules or not.
The key scandal remains the abrupt sacking of Duguid. Tories demand that sick peopl go back to work - unless they are in the way. That action is definitely wrong, and the stench remains pungent.
If Ross turns up to the hustings on Thursday it could be interesting.
The Duguid thing is very unfortunate and delicate. He most certainly was not thrown under a bus. Circumstances made his candidature unviable. He's not just a bit sick I'm afraid. It's a sad situation.
In no way was his candidature unviable. He would not be able to campaign in person. His team would continue to push his name and his message as he continues to recover.
Remember that he remained on the candidate list and was selected whilst far more seriously ill than he is now. And he is getting better every day.
What they did to him was genuinely disgusting. And from what I read / hear it is universally felt.
No. You're wrong. While opinions may vary about whether Douglas Ross was right to go for the seat - he's taking a huge risk - there is no controversy among those close to this that DD simply couldn't stand. Appreciate the optics look bad but that's the situation.
Are you close to this? I've heard from people who were *very* close to this that not only could he stand, was *was* standing. Its only at the last the party withdrew its approval for his candidacy.
That Reform seat list doesn't pass the smell test. The unexpectedly good SNP total might, however. The woad and tartan hardcore of the pro-independence vote is quite large, and they don't really have anywhere else to go. Nobody thinks the Scottish Greens or Alba are going to win any seats.
I maintain my assumption that the Tory membership will probably install Suella as the next leader, assuming that she is returned.
They won't get the chance. Tory MPs pick the final 2 and are more likely to pick Barclay and Tugendhat, both in ultra safe seats, or Cleverly if he holds Braintree which was Labour in 1997 and goes Labour again on some projections
The SNP score is particularly disappointing for me and I find it hard to relate to what I am seeing on the ground in Scotland. The SNP are almost invisible because they have no money. We have had 1 leaflet from the SNP and 6 from the Tories (neither Labour nor the Lib Dems are wasting their time in this constituency, I am not even sure Reform are standing). This is in an SNP seat.
Will that make a difference, other than to the recycling bins? Who knows, but it is a long time since the SNP have had so little impact in a major election. I will be gutted if they pick up 37 seats, gutted.
On the ground in ANME: Tories - their freepost is dropping. Addressed to household not voter. No other activity that we are aware of SNP - no money but plenty of bodies. Extensively doorknocking. Labour - nothing at all Reform - nothing at all LibDem - selected doorknocking. We're targeting key wards rather than the whole constituency. Targets will get quite a lot of stuff through the letterbox. Plus a targeted Facebook ad campaign which will be pretty intensive in the remaining weeks
As for the SNP, we're getting that much of their vote is softer than usual. A lot of upset about the state of public services. The odd mention of corruption. Frequent mentions of arrogance and being taken for granted...
I guess likely outcome there is Tories & SNP in mid-30s with Lab 3rd and Libs 4th. Think Ross will edge it. Sorry, but I doubt there is a huge suppressed LibDem vote just waiting to surge out from Buckie, Fraserburgh and Peterhead.
Its possible! You've said a couple of times that there isn't a suppressed LD vote - it isn't suppressed! We have councillors! As for finishing behind Labour? Sure - could happen. But there is no sign of a Labour vote here either - finished 4th in 2019 and have zero representation.
Ross vs Logan? I think Logan. Ross is deeply unpopular even amongst his own people - they leaked the "we think his expenses are dodgy" story last weekend and provided quotes to the newspaper...
It was quite the thing, to see a Tory getting the Rayner treatment from his own side. Even - especially - if it did not come to anything in the end.
Plenty came of it. IPSA have cleared his dirty laundry as clean. Fine. Respect that. Not sure all the people who saw them will feel the same. It smells wrong, even if it is in order. In an election, feel matters way more than fact.
His newly adopted local association threw him under the bus. With what they believed to be a scandal they had helped cover up. Complete with quotes. *Even the Tories* felt it was wrong, rules or not.
The key scandal remains the abrupt sacking of Duguid. Tories demand that sick peopl go back to work - unless they are in the way. That action is definitely wrong, and the stench remains pungent.
If Ross turns up to the hustings on Thursday it could be interesting.
The Duguid thing is very unfortunate and delicate. He most certainly was not thrown under a bus. Circumstances made his candidature unviable. He's not just a bit sick I'm afraid. It's a sad situation.
In no way was his candidature unviable. He would not be able to campaign in person. His team would continue to push his name and his message as he continues to recover.
Remember that he remained on the candidate list and was selected whilst far more seriously ill than he is now. And he is getting better every day.
What they did to him was genuinely disgusting. And from what I read / hear it is universally felt.
No. You're wrong. While opinions may vary about whether Douglas Ross was right to go for the seat - he's taking a huge risk - there is no controversy among those close to this that DD simply couldn't stand. Appreciate the optics look bad but that's the situation.
But optics *are* part of politics. Mr Ross should have followed the other half of his seat - or just stopped being a pluralist tout court and stuck with his MSP seat.
Well, we can take a view on the optics, and you have a point. But the actual situation that arose, and which led to this is delicate. The decision made re DD was not a political play however much it may seem like it from a distance.
New polling by Charlesbye Communications shows that Cameron is the public’s preferred candidate to assume the leadership again after the election. He was on 25 per cent, with Farage on 20 per cent, one point ahead of Mordaunt, with the current bookmakers’ favourite Kemi Badenoch on 8 per cent. In the same survey, 2019 Tory voters put Mordaunt top on 27 per cent, three ahead of Cameron and four ahead of Farage, with Badenoch on 6 per cent.
As I was saying, we need the Cameron party (incorporating the Lib Dems) and the Farage party (incorporating the ERG and a bit of old Labour).
The job of the next Tory leader is to unite the right. It can't be someone who repels part of the voter coalition they need to put back together. At the mo I would say Penny Mordaunt seems best-placed.
Mordaunt loses her Portsmouth N seat to Labour on most current polls, Labour won it in 1997
How much of a personal vote does Mordaunt have? As a possible future leader, does that buy her some extra support?
It will be interesting to see how both Mordaunt and Mercer perform in terms of personal vote. Both will find it tough to retain their seats but it might be that personal vote makes all the difference. I can't see personal vote helping Rees Mogg unless it is because he has forced all his indentured tenants to vote for him.
Ress Mogg is popular with likely Reform voters though and hard Brexiteers, so may stem leakage to Reform. Rosindell and Francois could hold on in the same manner as they could easily be Reform MPs
There are tens, or even hundreds of thousands of BigGs out there. People who will say all sorts of things to pollsters, but who, in the quiet of the polling booth or discussing a postal vote with their wives over the kitchen table, will come home to the Tories.
There are no loyal Faragists. He’s a fling. A bit of rough. In the end they come back. Not the erstwhile Labour voters, they’re going back to that home, but the habitual Conservative voters.
That’s why the conservatives will end up with a vote share beginning with 3, and about 200 seats.
Do you fancy a bet on this?
Not a huge one, but let’s say £100. If Tories are 28% or above you pay me, if they are 24% or below I pay you, if 24-28 we call it quits.
The SNP score is particularly disappointing for me and I find it hard to relate to what I am seeing on the ground in Scotland. The SNP are almost invisible because they have no money. We have had 1 leaflet from the SNP and 6 from the Tories (neither Labour nor the Lib Dems are wasting their time in this constituency, I am not even sure Reform are standing). This is in an SNP seat.
Will that make a difference, other than to the recycling bins? Who knows, but it is a long time since the SNP have had so little impact in a major election. I will be gutted if they pick up 37 seats, gutted.
On the ground in ANME: Tories - their freepost is dropping. Addressed to household not voter. No other activity that we are aware of SNP - no money but plenty of bodies. Extensively doorknocking. Labour - nothing at all Reform - nothing at all LibDem - selected doorknocking. We're targeting key wards rather than the whole constituency. Targets will get quite a lot of stuff through the letterbox. Plus a targeted Facebook ad campaign which will be pretty intensive in the remaining weeks
As for the SNP, we're getting that much of their vote is softer than usual. A lot of upset about the state of public services. The odd mention of corruption. Frequent mentions of arrogance and being taken for granted...
I guess likely outcome there is Tories & SNP in mid-30s with Lab 3rd and Libs 4th. Think Ross will edge it. Sorry, but I doubt there is a huge suppressed LibDem vote just waiting to surge out from Buckie, Fraserburgh and Peterhead.
Its possible! You've said a couple of times that there isn't a suppressed LD vote - it isn't suppressed! We have councillors! As for finishing behind Labour? Sure - could happen. But there is no sign of a Labour vote here either - finished 4th in 2019 and have zero representation.
Ross vs Logan? I think Logan. Ross is deeply unpopular even amongst his own people - they leaked the "we think his expenses are dodgy" story last weekend and provided quotes to the newspaper...
It was quite the thing, to see a Tory getting the Rayner treatment from his own side. Even - especially - if it did not come to anything in the end.
Plenty came of it. IPSA have cleared his dirty laundry as clean. Fine. Respect that. Not sure all the people who saw them will feel the same. It smells wrong, even if it is in order. In an election, feel matters way more than fact.
His newly adopted local association threw him under the bus. With what they believed to be a scandal they had helped cover up. Complete with quotes. *Even the Tories* felt it was wrong, rules or not.
The key scandal remains the abrupt sacking of Duguid. Tories demand that sick peopl go back to work - unless they are in the way. That action is definitely wrong, and the stench remains pungent.
If Ross turns up to the hustings on Thursday it could be interesting.
The Duguid thing is very unfortunate and delicate. He most certainly was not thrown under a bus. Circumstances made his candidature unviable. He's not just a bit sick I'm afraid. It's a sad situation.
In no way was his candidature unviable. He would not be able to campaign in person. His team would continue to push his name and his message as he continues to recover.
Remember that he remained on the candidate list and was selected whilst far more seriously ill than he is now. And he is getting better every day.
What they did to him was genuinely disgusting. And from what I read / hear it is universally felt.
No. You're wrong. While opinions may vary about whether Douglas Ross was right to go for the seat - he's taking a huge risk - there is no controversy among those close to this that DD simply couldn't stand. Appreciate the optics look bad but that's the situation.
But optics *are* part of politics. Mr Ross should have followed the other half of his seat - or just stopped being a pluralist tout court and stuck with his MSP seat.
We've also had the guff about how the Party Leader who sits on the Management Board knew nothing about it. They even put out to the Press and Journal that Ross isn't on the management board so can't have been involved. That lasted about half a second when someone pointed to the website showing him on the board.
Banff and Buchan Conservatives are not a one-man band. They have other members - and councillors - who could have been stepped up. When the news broke I assumed it would be someone like Mark Findlater. No, Ross parachuted himself in. Never mind the optics of how dodgy that looks, the response from local Tories has been sheer rage. And for good reason.
There was a moment last weekend when one of Rishi Sunak’s closest allies thought he had thrown in the towel. Badly bruised by the fury about his decision to come home early from the D-Day commemorations, the prime minister contemplated a disappearing act. “He was in a really bad way at the weekend,” one confidant revealed. “He wasn’t going to quit, but he was mulling whether he needed to completely remove himself from the election and let other people do it.”
On Monday, however, Sunak had snapped out of his depression. One of those who was on his 2022 leadership team, when he lost to Liz Truss, said: “He’s like he was then. He was down for the first half of the campaign and then he decided he was just going to throw everything at it. His attitude is that he has to go out and swing for the fences.”
Can anyone advise me on what "swing for the fences" means?
It's baseball, when you try and hit the ball so hard you get a home run.
That still doesn't mean anything to normal sentient hominines.
In baseball, several ways in which runs may be achieved and scored; one is for the batter to hit the ball to the outer reaches of the outfield, so the ball a) leaves the ball park; or b) takes so long to field and throw back that the batter crosses home plate after circuiting (counter-clockwise) all three bases.
IF the batter achieves this with three teammates already on base (one each) that's a grand slam.
(Which some traveling Brits may also have encountered as a breakfast special at Denny's.)
Thank you!
*investigates*
Oh, no need to travel. That's just a rather small Scottish breakfast, complete with fried drop scones*, if you leave off the maple syrup and cream. (Really, one needs to add black pudding, tomato, mushrooms, and possibly Lorne sausage if at all peckish.)
*still made on girdles here - my mother made them and Mrs C's hairdresser still does. I have a girdle too but haven't done any for ages as we have that supply ...
"While Reform performed best on the platform in the last 30 days, this has done little to shift the overall picture. In terms of total number of followers, Labour sits at just over 1,020,000 followers, followed by the Conservative Party at 623,731. Reform 320,827.”
Instagram
"On Instagram, Labour's lead is less pronounced. Currently, the party sits at just under 295,000 followers to the Conservative Party's 207,795. Reform 81, 493.”
TikTok
"While less data is available for TikTok, the Labour Party's recently launched account had the most followers, with over 165,900.
Reform, which unlike Labour and the Conservatives has had an official TikTok presence since 2022, had the second largest following, at over 141,000.
TikTok allows users to view how many times a page's posts have been liked by users. Of the six parties, Labour came out on top attracting more than 3.6 million likes on its posts. Across all its content, Reform has the second-highest total, with over 1.4 million likes.”
Facebook
"On Facebook, Labour has the largest audience, with more than 1,069,000 users following its official page. The Conservative Party has the second-largest following, at more than 752,000. Reform 246,082”
"What these numbers tell us
On the state of the race on social media, Kate Dommett, professor of digital politics at the University of Sheffield, said "Across all four platforms the Conservatives are at a disadvantage to Labour, with just over 900,000 fewer followers."
On the significance of this, Dommett said while it was "no guarantee of success," this disparity places the Conservatives at "an apparent disadvantage when it comes to communicating with electors."
On the performance of Reform UK specifically, Dommett noted the party "is punching above its weight on many platforms" by attracting a competitive number of followers compared to more established parties."
There are tens, or even hundreds of thousands of BigGs out there. People who will say all sorts of things to pollsters, but who, in the quiet of the polling booth or discussing a postal vote with their wives over the kitchen table, will come home to the Tories.
There are no loyal Faragists. He’s a fling. A bit of rough. In the end they come back. Not the erstwhile Labour voters, they’re going back to that home, but the habitual Conservative voters.
That’s why the conservatives will end up with a vote share beginning with 3, and about 200 seats.
Do you fancy a bet on this?
Not a huge one, but let’s say £100. If Tories are 28% or above you pay me, if they are 24% or below I pay you, if 24-28 we call it quits.
The SNP score is particularly disappointing for me and I find it hard to relate to what I am seeing on the ground in Scotland. The SNP are almost invisible because they have no money. We have had 1 leaflet from the SNP and 6 from the Tories (neither Labour nor the Lib Dems are wasting their time in this constituency, I am not even sure Reform are standing). This is in an SNP seat.
Will that make a difference, other than to the recycling bins? Who knows, but it is a long time since the SNP have had so little impact in a major election. I will be gutted if they pick up 37 seats, gutted.
On the ground in ANME: Tories - their freepost is dropping. Addressed to household not voter. No other activity that we are aware of SNP - no money but plenty of bodies. Extensively doorknocking. Labour - nothing at all Reform - nothing at all LibDem - selected doorknocking. We're targeting key wards rather than the whole constituency. Targets will get quite a lot of stuff through the letterbox. Plus a targeted Facebook ad campaign which will be pretty intensive in the remaining weeks
As for the SNP, we're getting that much of their vote is softer than usual. A lot of upset about the state of public services. The odd mention of corruption. Frequent mentions of arrogance and being taken for granted...
I guess likely outcome there is Tories & SNP in mid-30s with Lab 3rd and Libs 4th. Think Ross will edge it. Sorry, but I doubt there is a huge suppressed LibDem vote just waiting to surge out from Buckie, Fraserburgh and Peterhead.
Its possible! You've said a couple of times that there isn't a suppressed LD vote - it isn't suppressed! We have councillors! As for finishing behind Labour? Sure - could happen. But there is no sign of a Labour vote here either - finished 4th in 2019 and have zero representation.
Ross vs Logan? I think Logan. Ross is deeply unpopular even amongst his own people - they leaked the "we think his expenses are dodgy" story last weekend and provided quotes to the newspaper...
It was quite the thing, to see a Tory getting the Rayner treatment from his own side. Even - especially - if it did not come to anything in the end.
Plenty came of it. IPSA have cleared his dirty laundry as clean. Fine. Respect that. Not sure all the people who saw them will feel the same. It smells wrong, even if it is in order. In an election, feel matters way more than fact.
His newly adopted local association threw him under the bus. With what they believed to be a scandal they had helped cover up. Complete with quotes. *Even the Tories* felt it was wrong, rules or not.
The key scandal remains the abrupt sacking of Duguid. Tories demand that sick peopl go back to work - unless they are in the way. That action is definitely wrong, and the stench remains pungent.
If Ross turns up to the hustings on Thursday it could be interesting.
The Duguid thing is very unfortunate and delicate. He most certainly was not thrown under a bus. Circumstances made his candidature unviable. He's not just a bit sick I'm afraid. It's a sad situation.
In no way was his candidature unviable. He would not be able to campaign in person. His team would continue to push his name and his message as he continues to recover.
Remember that he remained on the candidate list and was selected whilst far more seriously ill than he is now. And he is getting better every day.
What they did to him was genuinely disgusting. And from what I read / hear it is universally felt.
No. You're wrong. While opinions may vary about whether Douglas Ross was right to go for the seat - he's taking a huge risk - there is no controversy among those close to this that DD simply couldn't stand. Appreciate the optics look bad but that's the situation.
Aside; The LD MP for Cheadle died 24 days from terminal cancer after being re-elected in 2005. Is being ill a barrier to standing in an election?
The SNP score is particularly disappointing for me and I find it hard to relate to what I am seeing on the ground in Scotland. The SNP are almost invisible because they have no money. We have had 1 leaflet from the SNP and 6 from the Tories (neither Labour nor the Lib Dems are wasting their time in this constituency, I am not even sure Reform are standing). This is in an SNP seat.
Will that make a difference, other than to the recycling bins? Who knows, but it is a long time since the SNP have had so little impact in a major election. I will be gutted if they pick up 37 seats, gutted.
On the ground in ANME: Tories - their freepost is dropping. Addressed to household not voter. No other activity that we are aware of SNP - no money but plenty of bodies. Extensively doorknocking. Labour - nothing at all Reform - nothing at all LibDem - selected doorknocking. We're targeting key wards rather than the whole constituency. Targets will get quite a lot of stuff through the letterbox. Plus a targeted Facebook ad campaign which will be pretty intensive in the remaining weeks
As for the SNP, we're getting that much of their vote is softer than usual. A lot of upset about the state of public services. The odd mention of corruption. Frequent mentions of arrogance and being taken for granted...
I guess likely outcome there is Tories & SNP in mid-30s with Lab 3rd and Libs 4th. Think Ross will edge it. Sorry, but I doubt there is a huge suppressed LibDem vote just waiting to surge out from Buckie, Fraserburgh and Peterhead.
Its possible! You've said a couple of times that there isn't a suppressed LD vote - it isn't suppressed! We have councillors! As for finishing behind Labour? Sure - could happen. But there is no sign of a Labour vote here either - finished 4th in 2019 and have zero representation.
Ross vs Logan? I think Logan. Ross is deeply unpopular even amongst his own people - they leaked the "we think his expenses are dodgy" story last weekend and provided quotes to the newspaper...
It was quite the thing, to see a Tory getting the Rayner treatment from his own side. Even - especially - if it did not come to anything in the end.
Plenty came of it. IPSA have cleared his dirty laundry as clean. Fine. Respect that. Not sure all the people who saw them will feel the same. It smells wrong, even if it is in order. In an election, feel matters way more than fact.
His newly adopted local association threw him under the bus. With what they believed to be a scandal they had helped cover up. Complete with quotes. *Even the Tories* felt it was wrong, rules or not.
The key scandal remains the abrupt sacking of Duguid. Tories demand that sick peopl go back to work - unless they are in the way. That action is definitely wrong, and the stench remains pungent.
If Ross turns up to the hustings on Thursday it could be interesting.
The Duguid thing is very unfortunate and delicate. He most certainly was not thrown under a bus. Circumstances made his candidature unviable. He's not just a bit sick I'm afraid. It's a sad situation.
In no way was his candidature unviable. He would not be able to campaign in person. His team would continue to push his name and his message as he continues to recover.
Remember that he remained on the candidate list and was selected whilst far more seriously ill than he is now. And he is getting better every day.
What they did to him was genuinely disgusting. And from what I read / hear it is universally felt.
No. You're wrong. While opinions may vary about whether Douglas Ross was right to go for the seat - he's taking a huge risk - there is no controversy among those close to this that DD simply couldn't stand. Appreciate the optics look bad but that's the situation.
Are you close to this? I've heard from people who were *very* close to this that not only could he stand, was *was* standing. Its only at the last the party withdrew its approval for his candidacy.
The optics look bad because it is bad.
Very strongly suspect my folk are "closer" thsn yours. David is popular. He wasn't stabbed. Optics are a different matter.
There are tens, or even hundreds of thousands of BigGs out there. People who will say all sorts of things to pollsters, but who, in the quiet of the polling booth or discussing a postal vote with their wives over the kitchen table, will come home to the Tories.
There are no loyal Faragists. He’s a fling. A bit of rough. In the end they come back. Not the erstwhile Labour voters, they’re going back to that home, but the habitual Conservative voters.
That’s why the conservatives will end up with a vote share beginning with 3, and about 200 seats.
Do you fancy a bet on this?
Not a huge one, but let’s say £100. If Tories are 28% or above you pay me, if they are 24% or below I pay you, if 24-28 we call it quits.
That’s a bit boring
Let’s make it below 26% I win; above 26% you win
But just £50. Enough for a pleasant solo lunch
Deal
🥂👍
That’s a nice bet. We both have a decent chance, but we are betting what we sincerely believe
Since things seem a bit quiet atm (by the standards of this campaign), who is everyone else's favourite sets of enemies on here? Personally I enjoy the @Leon V a small crew the most (and his ripostes which while variable are awesome, those who want him off the site can fuck off imo) with those who try to take on @Heathener probably coming up second (and again, her ripostes, although they're nowhere near as funny as Leon's are more delightfully vicious).
Plus those two rather dislike each other which is also fun.
And then there's @Casino_Royale versus the world, depending on sobriety and what he had for breakfast. Also awesomely ridiculous.
@BartholomewRoberts often gets piled on but I don't think anyone viscerally dislikes him. And @Dura_Ace piles on everyone else in an extremely entertaining way but also no one seems upset.
I'm sorry to those I've missed out but would like to know so I can see the simmering resentment in future posts.
It's also interesting that with the possible exception of Casino and Heathener none of the above seem to actually be any good at betting.
The SNP score is particularly disappointing for me and I find it hard to relate to what I am seeing on the ground in Scotland. The SNP are almost invisible because they have no money. We have had 1 leaflet from the SNP and 6 from the Tories (neither Labour nor the Lib Dems are wasting their time in this constituency, I am not even sure Reform are standing). This is in an SNP seat.
Will that make a difference, other than to the recycling bins? Who knows, but it is a long time since the SNP have had so little impact in a major election. I will be gutted if they pick up 37 seats, gutted.
On the ground in ANME: Tories - their freepost is dropping. Addressed to household not voter. No other activity that we are aware of SNP - no money but plenty of bodies. Extensively doorknocking. Labour - nothing at all Reform - nothing at all LibDem - selected doorknocking. We're targeting key wards rather than the whole constituency. Targets will get quite a lot of stuff through the letterbox. Plus a targeted Facebook ad campaign which will be pretty intensive in the remaining weeks
As for the SNP, we're getting that much of their vote is softer than usual. A lot of upset about the state of public services. The odd mention of corruption. Frequent mentions of arrogance and being taken for granted...
I guess likely outcome there is Tories & SNP in mid-30s with Lab 3rd and Libs 4th. Think Ross will edge it. Sorry, but I doubt there is a huge suppressed LibDem vote just waiting to surge out from Buckie, Fraserburgh and Peterhead.
Its possible! You've said a couple of times that there isn't a suppressed LD vote - it isn't suppressed! We have councillors! As for finishing behind Labour? Sure - could happen. But there is no sign of a Labour vote here either - finished 4th in 2019 and have zero representation.
Ross vs Logan? I think Logan. Ross is deeply unpopular even amongst his own people - they leaked the "we think his expenses are dodgy" story last weekend and provided quotes to the newspaper...
It was quite the thing, to see a Tory getting the Rayner treatment from his own side. Even - especially - if it did not come to anything in the end.
Plenty came of it. IPSA have cleared his dirty laundry as clean. Fine. Respect that. Not sure all the people who saw them will feel the same. It smells wrong, even if it is in order. In an election, feel matters way more than fact.
His newly adopted local association threw him under the bus. With what they believed to be a scandal they had helped cover up. Complete with quotes. *Even the Tories* felt it was wrong, rules or not.
The key scandal remains the abrupt sacking of Duguid. Tories demand that sick peopl go back to work - unless they are in the way. That action is definitely wrong, and the stench remains pungent.
If Ross turns up to the hustings on Thursday it could be interesting.
The Duguid thing is very unfortunate and delicate. He most certainly was not thrown under a bus. Circumstances made his candidature unviable. He's not just a bit sick I'm afraid. It's a sad situation.
In no way was his candidature unviable. He would not be able to campaign in person. His team would continue to push his name and his message as he continues to recover.
Remember that he remained on the candidate list and was selected whilst far more seriously ill than he is now. And he is getting better every day.
What they did to him was genuinely disgusting. And from what I read / hear it is universally felt.
No. You're wrong. While opinions may vary about whether Douglas Ross was right to go for the seat - he's taking a huge risk - there is no controversy among those close to this that DD simply couldn't stand. Appreciate the optics look bad but that's the situation.
Aside; The LD MP for Cheadle died 24 days from terminal cancer after being re-elected in 2005. Is being ill a barrier to standing in an election?
in short, no...
if someone dies before the close of nominations then they are withdrawn if they die following the close of nominations but before election day then the contest doesn't happen on election day and a by-election is held separately (as happened in 1997 I think) if they die following the election day it's a standard by-election.
"While Reform performed best on the platform in the last 30 days, this has done little to shift the overall picture. In terms of total number of followers, Labour sits at just over 1,020,000 followers, followed by the Conservative Party at 623,731. Reform 320,827.”
Instagram
"On Instagram, Labour's lead is less pronounced. Currently, the party sits at just under 295,000 followers to the Conservative Party's 207,795. Reform 81, 493.”
TikTok
"While less data is available for TikTok, the Labour Party's recently launched account had the most followers, with over 165,900.
Reform, which unlike Labour and the Conservatives has had an official TikTok presence since 2022, had the second largest following, at over 141,000.
TikTok allows users to view how many times a page's posts have been liked by users. Of the six parties, Labour came out on top attracting more than 3.6 million likes on its posts. Across all its content, Reform has the second-highest total, with over 1.4 million likes.”
Facebook
"On Facebook, Labour has the largest audience, with more than 1,069,000 users following its official page. The Conservative Party has the second-largest following, at more than 752,000. Reform 246,082”
"What these numbers tell us
On the state of the race on social media, Kate Dommett, professor of digital politics at the University of Sheffield, said "Across all four platforms the Conservatives are at a disadvantage to Labour, with just over 900,000 fewer followers."
On the significance of this, Dommett said while it was "no guarantee of success," this disparity places the Conservatives at "an apparent disadvantage when it comes to communicating with electors."
On the performance of Reform UK specifically, Dommett noted the party "is punching above its weight on many platforms" by attracting a competitive number of followers compared to more established parties."
QED
Farage IS Reform. We all know this. So you need to compare the two big parties with Farage. Or indeed their leaders with Farage
Even on TwiX Farage has more followers than Starmer and his tweets get more views
But it’s really on TikTok that Farage is winning comprehensively
Another variable for the PB election predictions competition? Maximum temperature in the UK on polling day.
I predict 27C.
We’re going from cold and miserable this last week, to milder but unsettled this week, to really rather nice the week after and then to mixed but very warm (I think) to start July.
I want it to be warm and summery. We need some optimism to welcome in the new era. I’ll always remember the weather on 23rd June 2016. Dark, stormy and menacing.
There was a moment last weekend when one of Rishi Sunak’s closest allies thought he had thrown in the towel. Badly bruised by the fury about his decision to come home early from the D-Day commemorations, the prime minister contemplated a disappearing act. “He was in a really bad way at the weekend,” one confidant revealed. “He wasn’t going to quit, but he was mulling whether he needed to completely remove himself from the election and let other people do it.”
On Monday, however, Sunak had snapped out of his depression. One of those who was on his 2022 leadership team, when he lost to Liz Truss, said: “He’s like he was then. He was down for the first half of the campaign and then he decided he was just going to throw everything at it. His attitude is that he has to go out and swing for the fences.”
He'll get more respect in the long run for going down fighting and with some dignity. After the election he can make a statement saying he will be resigning as Prime minister and recommending Sir Keir Starmer as his successor. He can then meet with his Conservative parliamentary colleagues to decide what the party ought to do.
The SNP score is particularly disappointing for me and I find it hard to relate to what I am seeing on the ground in Scotland. The SNP are almost invisible because they have no money. We have had 1 leaflet from the SNP and 6 from the Tories (neither Labour nor the Lib Dems are wasting their time in this constituency, I am not even sure Reform are standing). This is in an SNP seat.
Will that make a difference, other than to the recycling bins? Who knows, but it is a long time since the SNP have had so little impact in a major election. I will be gutted if they pick up 37 seats, gutted.
On the ground in ANME: Tories - their freepost is dropping. Addressed to household not voter. No other activity that we are aware of SNP - no money but plenty of bodies. Extensively doorknocking. Labour - nothing at all Reform - nothing at all LibDem - selected doorknocking. We're targeting key wards rather than the whole constituency. Targets will get quite a lot of stuff through the letterbox. Plus a targeted Facebook ad campaign which will be pretty intensive in the remaining weeks
As for the SNP, we're getting that much of their vote is softer than usual. A lot of upset about the state of public services. The odd mention of corruption. Frequent mentions of arrogance and being taken for granted...
I guess likely outcome there is Tories & SNP in mid-30s with Lab 3rd and Libs 4th. Think Ross will edge it. Sorry, but I doubt there is a huge suppressed LibDem vote just waiting to surge out from Buckie, Fraserburgh and Peterhead.
Its possible! You've said a couple of times that there isn't a suppressed LD vote - it isn't suppressed! We have councillors! As for finishing behind Labour? Sure - could happen. But there is no sign of a Labour vote here either - finished 4th in 2019 and have zero representation.
Ross vs Logan? I think Logan. Ross is deeply unpopular even amongst his own people - they leaked the "we think his expenses are dodgy" story last weekend and provided quotes to the newspaper...
It was quite the thing, to see a Tory getting the Rayner treatment from his own side. Even - especially - if it did not come to anything in the end.
Plenty came of it. IPSA have cleared his dirty laundry as clean. Fine. Respect that. Not sure all the people who saw them will feel the same. It smells wrong, even if it is in order. In an election, feel matters way more than fact.
His newly adopted local association threw him under the bus. With what they believed to be a scandal they had helped cover up. Complete with quotes. *Even the Tories* felt it was wrong, rules or not.
The key scandal remains the abrupt sacking of Duguid. Tories demand that sick peopl go back to work - unless they are in the way. That action is definitely wrong, and the stench remains pungent.
If Ross turns up to the hustings on Thursday it could be interesting.
The Duguid thing is very unfortunate and delicate. He most certainly was not thrown under a bus. Circumstances made his candidature unviable. He's not just a bit sick I'm afraid. It's a sad situation.
In no way was his candidature unviable. He would not be able to campaign in person. His team would continue to push his name and his message as he continues to recover.
Remember that he remained on the candidate list and was selected whilst far more seriously ill than he is now. And he is getting better every day.
What they did to him was genuinely disgusting. And from what I read / hear it is universally felt.
No. You're wrong. While opinions may vary about whether Douglas Ross was right to go for the seat - he's taking a huge risk - there is no controversy among those close to this that DD simply couldn't stand. Appreciate the optics look bad but that's the situation.
Aside; The LD MP for Cheadle died 24 days from terminal cancer after being re-elected in 2005. Is being ill a barrier to standing in an election?
in short, no...
if someone dies before the close of nominations then they are withdrawn if they die following the close of nominations but before election day then the contest doesn't happen on election day and a by-election is held separately (as happened in 1997 I think) if they die following the election day it's a standard by-election.
The SNP score is particularly disappointing for me and I find it hard to relate to what I am seeing on the ground in Scotland. The SNP are almost invisible because they have no money. We have had 1 leaflet from the SNP and 6 from the Tories (neither Labour nor the Lib Dems are wasting their time in this constituency, I am not even sure Reform are standing). This is in an SNP seat.
Will that make a difference, other than to the recycling bins? Who knows, but it is a long time since the SNP have had so little impact in a major election. I will be gutted if they pick up 37 seats, gutted.
On the ground in ANME: Tories - their freepost is dropping. Addressed to household not voter. No other activity that we are aware of SNP - no money but plenty of bodies. Extensively doorknocking. Labour - nothing at all Reform - nothing at all LibDem - selected doorknocking. We're targeting key wards rather than the whole constituency. Targets will get quite a lot of stuff through the letterbox. Plus a targeted Facebook ad campaign which will be pretty intensive in the remaining weeks
As for the SNP, we're getting that much of their vote is softer than usual. A lot of upset about the state of public services. The odd mention of corruption. Frequent mentions of arrogance and being taken for granted...
I guess likely outcome there is Tories & SNP in mid-30s with Lab 3rd and Libs 4th. Think Ross will edge it. Sorry, but I doubt there is a huge suppressed LibDem vote just waiting to surge out from Buckie, Fraserburgh and Peterhead.
Its possible! You've said a couple of times that there isn't a suppressed LD vote - it isn't suppressed! We have councillors! As for finishing behind Labour? Sure - could happen. But there is no sign of a Labour vote here either - finished 4th in 2019 and have zero representation.
Ross vs Logan? I think Logan. Ross is deeply unpopular even amongst his own people - they leaked the "we think his expenses are dodgy" story last weekend and provided quotes to the newspaper...
It was quite the thing, to see a Tory getting the Rayner treatment from his own side. Even - especially - if it did not come to anything in the end.
Plenty came of it. IPSA have cleared his dirty laundry as clean. Fine. Respect that. Not sure all the people who saw them will feel the same. It smells wrong, even if it is in order. In an election, feel matters way more than fact.
His newly adopted local association threw him under the bus. With what they believed to be a scandal they had helped cover up. Complete with quotes. *Even the Tories* felt it was wrong, rules or not.
The key scandal remains the abrupt sacking of Duguid. Tories demand that sick peopl go back to work - unless they are in the way. That action is definitely wrong, and the stench remains pungent.
If Ross turns up to the hustings on Thursday it could be interesting.
The Duguid thing is very unfortunate and delicate. He most certainly was not thrown under a bus. Circumstances made his candidature unviable. He's not just a bit sick I'm afraid. It's a sad situation.
In no way was his candidature unviable. He would not be able to campaign in person. His team would continue to push his name and his message as he continues to recover.
Remember that he remained on the candidate list and was selected whilst far more seriously ill than he is now. And he is getting better every day.
What they did to him was genuinely disgusting. And from what I read / hear it is universally felt.
No. You're wrong. While opinions may vary about whether Douglas Ross was right to go for the seat - he's taking a huge risk - there is no controversy among those close to this that DD simply couldn't stand. Appreciate the optics look bad but that's the situation.
Are you close to this? I've heard from people who were *very* close to this that not only could he stand, was *was* standing. Its only at the last the party withdrew its approval for his candidacy.
The optics look bad because it is bad.
Very strongly suspect my folk are "closer" thsn yours. David is popular. He wasn't stabbed. Optics are a different matter.
Yet it's not your folk who are voting. It's the assorted Doric folk on the main street of Foggieloan, etc., who are. And that is what counts.
That Reform seat list doesn't pass the smell test. The unexpectedly good SNP total might, however. The woad and tartan hardcore of the pro-independence vote is quite large, and they don't really have anywhere else to go. Nobody thinks the Scottish Greens or Alba are going to win any seats.
I maintain my assumption that the Tory membership will probably install Suella as the next leader, assuming that she is returned.
They won't get the chance. Tory MPs pick the final 2 and are more likely to pick Barclay and Tugendhat, both in ultra safe seats, or Cleverly if he holds Braintree which was Labour in 1997 and goes Labour again on some projections
This very much depends on the nature of the surviving Conservative MPs. Which, to be perfectly honest, would require one to generate a list of the likely remnants from a drubbing and make a guess as to their inclinations, which I can't be bothered to do. Is it your opinion that the remnant is likely not to be inclined to go charging off further to the right?
Nigel Farage @Nigel_Farage Latest polling by Survation now predicts Reform UK will win 7 seats. The momentum is building.
Almost enough to fill a taxi? 😂
The chances of Exeter/Exmouth going Reform seem vanishingly small. I could see Clacton, Boston, and maybe a red wall or two, otherwise I struggle to see how a very weak ground game delivers any seats at all.
The SNP score is particularly disappointing for me and I find it hard to relate to what I am seeing on the ground in Scotland. The SNP are almost invisible because they have no money. We have had 1 leaflet from the SNP and 6 from the Tories (neither Labour nor the Lib Dems are wasting their time in this constituency, I am not even sure Reform are standing). This is in an SNP seat.
Will that make a difference, other than to the recycling bins? Who knows, but it is a long time since the SNP have had so little impact in a major election. I will be gutted if they pick up 37 seats, gutted.
On the ground in ANME: Tories - their freepost is dropping. Addressed to household not voter. No other activity that we are aware of SNP - no money but plenty of bodies. Extensively doorknocking. Labour - nothing at all Reform - nothing at all LibDem - selected doorknocking. We're targeting key wards rather than the whole constituency. Targets will get quite a lot of stuff through the letterbox. Plus a targeted Facebook ad campaign which will be pretty intensive in the remaining weeks
As for the SNP, we're getting that much of their vote is softer than usual. A lot of upset about the state of public services. The odd mention of corruption. Frequent mentions of arrogance and being taken for granted...
I guess likely outcome there is Tories & SNP in mid-30s with Lab 3rd and Libs 4th. Think Ross will edge it. Sorry, but I doubt there is a huge suppressed LibDem vote just waiting to surge out from Buckie, Fraserburgh and Peterhead.
Its possible! You've said a couple of times that there isn't a suppressed LD vote - it isn't suppressed! We have councillors! As for finishing behind Labour? Sure - could happen. But there is no sign of a Labour vote here either - finished 4th in 2019 and have zero representation.
Ross vs Logan? I think Logan. Ross is deeply unpopular even amongst his own people - they leaked the "we think his expenses are dodgy" story last weekend and provided quotes to the newspaper...
It was quite the thing, to see a Tory getting the Rayner treatment from his own side. Even - especially - if it did not come to anything in the end.
Plenty came of it. IPSA have cleared his dirty laundry as clean. Fine. Respect that. Not sure all the people who saw them will feel the same. It smells wrong, even if it is in order. In an election, feel matters way more than fact.
His newly adopted local association threw him under the bus. With what they believed to be a scandal they had helped cover up. Complete with quotes. *Even the Tories* felt it was wrong, rules or not.
The key scandal remains the abrupt sacking of Duguid. Tories demand that sick peopl go back to work - unless they are in the way. That action is definitely wrong, and the stench remains pungent.
If Ross turns up to the hustings on Thursday it could be interesting.
The Duguid thing is very unfortunate and delicate. He most certainly was not thrown under a bus. Circumstances made his candidature unviable. He's not just a bit sick I'm afraid. It's a sad situation.
In no way was his candidature unviable. He would not be able to campaign in person. His team would continue to push his name and his message as he continues to recover.
Remember that he remained on the candidate list and was selected whilst far more seriously ill than he is now. And he is getting better every day.
What they did to him was genuinely disgusting. And from what I read / hear it is universally felt.
No. You're wrong. While opinions may vary about whether Douglas Ross was right to go for the seat - he's taking a huge risk - there is no controversy among those close to this that DD simply couldn't stand. Appreciate the optics look bad but that's the situation.
But optics *are* part of politics. Mr Ross should have followed the other half of his seat - or just stopped being a pluralist tout court and stuck with his MSP seat.
You mean he could have kept the promise he'd previously given?
Comments
Life can be very unfair.
Edit - WTF autocorrect?
His newly adopted local association threw him under the bus. With what they believed to be a scandal they had helped cover up. Complete with quotes. *Even the Tories* felt it was wrong, rules or not.
The key scandal remains the abrupt sacking of Duguid. Tories demand that sick peopl go back to work - unless they are in the way. That action is definitely wrong, and the stench remains pungent.
If Ross turns up to the hustings on Thursday it could be interesting.
In 2010 FSG bought Liverpool FC and they also own the Boston Red Sox team, so I dug deep to find out what kind of owners they would be based on their tenure of the Red Sox.
The only time we have had proper cabinet government in my adult lifetime was during the coalition, and it shows.
You compared me to Simon Case this morning.
I mean WTAF?
I pointed out that he got the same grades as you at A-level, in the same year, and therefore a wise man would not boast about how hard they were.
After D-Day, that 32% looks out of reach. But 30%? Maybe....
I will not be surprised if we do not get more blue on blue before the campaign ends. The sheer rage of local Tories as to what happened is something to behold.
EDIT - no Labour presence in Cullen or Buckie. No candidates stood in 2022
https://www.scotsman.com/news/people/new-rail-links-would-bring-huge-benefits-to-buchan-4665560
Yes, Reform are doing a better job than the tories on most social media but Labour are way ahead of both in terms of output and followers.
What you just can’t accept is that Farage is marmite. A lot of people on the right loathe him. He is not the answer.
Etc.
But fair enough. Although they can change the rules very quickly, presumably? I've just finished Patrick Bishop's biography of A. Neave MP which, in part, covered his role in the defenestration of E. Heath and his replacemebnt by one M. Thatcher, a key element of which was a complere replacement of the voting rules.
With little Farage in his top pocket.
The real cost of Farage.
He may not turn on swing voters anymore than Corbyn did but he could unite the right behind him in the same way Corbyn united the left behind him
IF the batter achieves this with three teammates already on base (one each) that's a grand slam.
(Which some traveling Brits may also have encountered as a breakfast special at Denny's.)
UK Labour, TikTok: 200k followers
https://www.tiktok.com/@uklabour
Starmer doesn’t even have an official TikTok account
Farage, TikTok: 720k followers. More than three times as many
https://www.tiktok.com/@nigel_farage
Are you ever right about ANYTHING???
Remember that he remained on the candidate list and was selected whilst far more seriously ill than he is now. And he is getting better every day.
What they did to him was genuinely disgusting. And from what I read / hear it is universally felt.
Bit like the Tories really.
I maintain my assumption that the Tory membership will probably install Suella as the next leader, assuming that she is returned.
Filled in the wrong form, forgot the witness statement, failed to meet the filing deadline. Lost the case by default. Now appealing by filing the paperwork three months after deadline and three weeks after judgement
(By the way, it was your advice to sue there, so thank you.)
Plus not letting the poor chap have a stab at recovering first is inherently discriminatory. If I were him, I'd be considering talking to the advocates of the West End of Edinburgh. Except that mr Ross will probably have lost the seat by then anyway, and retreated back to the MSP list seat which he is apparently not resigning after all.
Now Buttler out 2/1 after 1.2 overs in an 11 over match
They've dropped Jacks for this match.
There are tens, or even hundreds of thousands of BigGs out there. People who will say all sorts of things to pollsters, but who, in the quiet of the polling booth or discussing a postal vote with their wives over the kitchen table, will come home to the Tories.
There are no loyal Faragists. He’s a fling. A bit of rough. In the end they come back. Not the erstwhile Labour voters, they’re going back to that home, but the habitual Conservative voters.
That’s why the conservatives will
end up with a vote share beginning with 3, and about 200 seats.
Bowled by big Trump(elmann)
The next over will be Salt in your wounds.
The optics look bad because it is bad.
Let’s make it below 26% I win; above 26% you win
But just £50. Enough for a pleasant solo lunch
Banff and Buchan Conservatives are not a one-man band. They have other members - and councillors - who could have been stepped up. When the news broke I assumed it would be someone like Mark Findlater. No, Ross parachuted himself in. Never mind the optics of how dodgy that looks, the response from local Tories has been sheer rage. And for good reason.
*investigates*
Oh, no need to travel. That's just a rather small Scottish breakfast, complete with fried drop scones*, if you leave off the maple syrup and cream. (Really, one needs to add black pudding, tomato, mushrooms, and possibly Lorne sausage if at all peckish.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KtKXSyrxi0g
*still made on girdles here - my mother made them and Mrs C's hairdresser still does. I have a girdle too but haven't done any for ages as we have that supply ...
https://news.sky.com/story/labour-attracts-largest-following-across-social-media-platforms-13148421
X.com (Twitter)
"While Reform performed best on the platform in the last 30 days, this has done little to shift the overall picture. In terms of total number of followers, Labour sits at just over 1,020,000 followers, followed by the Conservative Party at 623,731. Reform 320,827.”
Instagram
"On Instagram, Labour's lead is less pronounced. Currently, the party sits at just under 295,000 followers to the Conservative Party's 207,795. Reform 81, 493.”
TikTok
"While less data is available for TikTok, the Labour Party's recently launched account had the most followers, with over 165,900.
Reform, which unlike Labour and the Conservatives has had an official TikTok presence since 2022, had the second largest following, at over 141,000.
TikTok allows users to view how many times a page's posts have been liked by users. Of the six parties, Labour came out on top attracting more than 3.6 million likes on its posts. Across all its content, Reform has the second-highest total, with over 1.4 million likes.”
Facebook
"On Facebook, Labour has the largest audience, with more than 1,069,000 users following its official page. The Conservative Party has the second-largest following, at more than 752,000. Reform 246,082”
"What these numbers tell us
On the state of the race on social media, Kate Dommett, professor of digital politics at the University of Sheffield, said "Across all four platforms the Conservatives are at a disadvantage to Labour, with just over 900,000 fewer followers."
On the significance of this, Dommett said while it was "no guarantee of success," this disparity places the Conservatives at "an apparent disadvantage when it comes to communicating with electors."
On the performance of Reform UK specifically, Dommett noted the party "is punching above its weight on many platforms" by attracting a competitive number of followers compared to more established parties."
QED
Is being ill a barrier to standing in an election?
That’s a nice bet. We both have a decent chance, but we are betting what we sincerely believe
@Nigel_Farage
Latest polling by Survation now predicts Reform UK will win 7 seats. The momentum is building.
Almost enough to fill a taxi? 😂
Plus those two rather dislike each other which is also fun.
And then there's @Casino_Royale versus the world, depending on sobriety and what he had for breakfast. Also awesomely ridiculous.
@BartholomewRoberts often gets piled on but I don't think anyone viscerally dislikes him. And @Dura_Ace piles on everyone else in an extremely entertaining way but also no one seems upset.
I'm sorry to those I've missed out but would like to know so I can see the simmering resentment in future posts.
It's also interesting that with the possible exception of Casino and Heathener none of the above seem to actually be any good at betting.
Sunak at the plate...
A swing and a miss.
if someone dies before the close of nominations then they are withdrawn
if they die following the close of nominations but before election day then the contest doesn't happen on election day and a by-election is held separately (as happened in 1997 I think)
if they die following the election day it's a standard by-election.
Even on TwiX Farage has more followers than Starmer and his tweets get more views
But it’s really on TikTok that Farage is winning comprehensively
I predict 27C.
We’re going from cold and miserable this last week, to milder but unsettled this week, to really rather nice the week after and then to mixed but very warm (I think) to start July.
I want it to be warm and summery. We need some optimism to welcome in the new era. I’ll always remember the weather on 23rd June 2016. Dark, stormy and menacing.
He gets on the custy side of the bets round here.
Fat chance of that.