Survation is great for Lab and the SNP but awful for the Tories – politicalbetting.com

Full seat extrapolation pic.twitter.com/yVhnVjtsl9
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Full seat extrapolation pic.twitter.com/yVhnVjtsl9
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My photo for the day.
Hardwick Hall, "More Glass than Wall". My local large National Trust property, which you see from the M1 between Junctions 28 and 29.
An Elizabethan "progidy house", designed by an architect called ... drumroll ... Robert Smythson, who also did Longleat and Wollaton Hall.
Thanks x
https://x.com/georgeeaton/status/1801968518243439000
Ashfield
Clacton
Exmouth & Exeter East
Great Yarmouth
Mid Leicestershire
North West Norfolk
South Suffolk
Have to agree with you - SNP and Reform are a buy, Tories a sell.
I am looking at Lincolnshire, Essex, and East Anglia.
Not the Red Wall.
Edit. See it's there. And I'm pretty much right.
https://x.com/Savanta_UK/status/1802030811421564970
And isn't the Exmouth one a function of the Claire (?) Wright vote?
She isn't standing. And her voters certainly aren't Faragists.
@Telegraph
📈25pt Labour lead
📉Lowest Con vote share since May 2019
🌹Lab 46 (+2)
🌳Con 21 (-4)
➡️Reform 13 (+3)
🔶LD 11 (+2)
🌍Green 5 (+1)
🎗️SNP 2 (-1)
⬜️Other 3 (-1)
2,045 UK adults, 12-14 June
(chg from 7-9 June)
https://x.com/Savanta_UK/status/1802030811421564970
Hmm. Interesting.
That MRP projection for the SNP is bullshit.
Sample size?
This Savanta poll is a standard VI poll.
It would be trying to hand legislation to the courts - something the courts have resisted.
Politicians will become very interested in controlling who is on the Supreme Court.
These are giving a picture shrivelled of a Tory party, not an apocalypse.
You think that provision is going to cause "a huge economic crises"?
I think it's a stupid idea to have public sector bodies focused on anything other than value for money. But the idea that this - rather than say, the inability of the UK to pay its way in the world - is going to cause a huge economic "crises" it's patently absurd.
King and Kate's appearance at TTC.
Followed by Kevin Campbell.
Then the runaway cow.
Finally the E coli outbreak.
Followed by an advert which began "You don't need us to tell you there's a General Election coming."
Apparently we don't.
I might buy Reform because of asymmetrical risk reward, but that's about it.
But.
Almost every Tory I know won't be voting Tory this time.
I'd take 108 any day. Suspect reality could be a lot worse.
https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/14853/economics/income-inequality-by-income-decile/
Wokery is encoded into their core DNA. And, it's going to prove deeply unpopular.
Though I would probably try and use it to try and lever a policy to consider pedestrians better onto my Local Highways Authority.
Reform is definitely a buy. So too LDs, probably.
Yes, we've undoubtedly lost some. But not half, as the polls are saying.
I must say, I'm looking forward to being hailed as a great prophet if (when) it happens.
It's the media to blame.
Very kind of you to delete your comment so that I am now first.
FIRST !!!!
I don't like how SPIN run them.
https://x.com/faqtories/status/1802035568555028795?s=46
Meanwhile reports of cross-over by Reform seem rather exaggerated
Which was the election where Hitchens the right was taken off air by the Mail for several weeks during his Conservative Delenda Est phase?
I expect Nige will be very disappionted, because some of these will include fieldwork after the Yougov by now, I expect. Where is the snowball factor of people apparently wanting to jump on the bandwagon, that you might have expected ? If it's not in evidence this weekend, I doubt it will suddenly arrive later on.
Will that make a difference, other than to the recycling bins? Who knows, but it is a long time since the SNP have had so little impact in a major election. I will be gutted if they pick up 37 seats, gutted.
New entries on the block like Reform are tricky to weight.
https://x.com/JohnRentoul/status/1801915023414997137
Edit- SCOTTISH KLAXON!
Lab ~ 34% (nc)
SNP ~ 30% (+1)
Con ~ 14% (-2)
LD ~ 9% (+1)
RUK ~ 7% (+1)
Grn ~ 4% (nc)
Alba ~ 2% (-1)
They said they intend to switch to a ballot prompt method but it’s not clear whether that’s happened for this poll.
https://x.com/MattCartoonist/status/1801997816752963835
https://www.survation.com/survation-mrp-labour-set-for-record-breaking-majority/
Lab 521
LD 51
Con 30
Ref 2
GRN 1
SNP 21
PC 4
Majority of 392.
John Curtice doesn't seem to think the SNP are going to do particularly well, either.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gvBXPKl8NUI
Lab ~ 34% (nc)
SNP ~ 30% (+1)
Con ~ 14% (-2)
LD ~ 9% (+1)
RUK ~ 7% (+1)
Grn ~ 4% (nc)
Alba ~ 2% (-1)
According to Sir John Curtice’s analysis, this would see Labour return 28 MPs in Scotland, up from the current two, while the SNP would win 18 seats, compared with its 48 in 2019. The Lib Dems would increase their Scottish contingent of MPs from four to five.
https://www.thetimes.com/uk/scotland/article/tory-voters-switching-to-reform-add-to-pressure-on-douglas-ross-mk962nlf5
That may be an outlier but it could be that the media attention around the various manifesto launches is now coming out of the system and we return to how we were, roughly, ten days ago?