That Reform seat list doesn't pass the smell test. The unexpectedly good SNP total might, however. The woad and tartan hardcore of the pro-independence vote is quite large, and they don't really have anywhere else to go. Nobody thinks the Scottish Greens or Alba are going to win any seats.
I maintain my assumption that the Tory membership will probably install Suella as the next leader, assuming that she is returned.
They won't get the chance. Tory MPs pick the final 2 and are more likely to pick Barclay and Tugendhat, both in ultra safe seats, or Cleverly if he holds Braintree which was Labour in 1997 and goes Labour again on some projections
This very much depends on the nature of the surviving Conservative MPs. Which, to be perfectly honest, would require one to generate a list of the likely remnants from a drubbing and make a guess as to their inclinations, which I can't be bothered to do. Is it your opinion that the remnant is likely not to be inclined to go charging off further to the right?
Yes, firstly as lots of ERG Leave MPs in the redwall and Leave marginal seats in areas like the Midlands, Wales, the North, Kent and Essex will lose their seats.
Second as CCHQ ensured the shortlists given to Tory Associations in safe seats where incumbent Tory MPs stood down were only Sunak loyalist centrists
@Leon I’m on TikTok and Farage is not “all over it”
Yes, Reform are doing a better job than the tories on most social media but Labour are way ahead of both in terms of output and followers.
What you just can’t accept is that Farage is marmite. A lot of people on the right loathe him. He is not the answer.
Your description of him as a right wing Corbyn is - I think - spot on.
While he'd do a terrific job of uniting (much of) the Conservative vote and (all of) the Reform vote, he'd also supercharge tactical voting against the Conservative-Reform Party.
Which is a big problem in FPTP, unless you're getting 45% of the vote. And I don't believe that a Conservative-Reform Party led by Farage would be getting 45% of the vote.
Corbyn never clocked that for every vote he won he lost two. Farage is worse.
I disagree. This analysis is totally wrong. Farage is a vastly more significant figure and a much more powerful politician
Corbyn is just a standard dim lefty fringe crank who got lucky when Labour nominated him for the lols. Farage single handedly turned UKIP into a major force, forced a referendum, and we brexited. Farage changed history, Corbyn is a footnote
And here is Farage again, transforming an election and threatening to destroy “the natural party of government”
The only similarity is that they are both polarising. That’s it
Farage would not have stood a chance against Blair in 1997.
He is thriving because people are furious about the Conservatives behaving like a poundshop Labour Party.
So people have been hoping Labour are are not going to make things far worse (hope more than expectation), unenthusiastic for dull and worthy Starmer and a bit repelled by Rayner and some of the others. But needs must, when it is raining and you are caught outside you need shelter, so they were resigned to Labour like a spinster settling for a dull but worthy suitor and hoping he would not run off with all their money.
Then in steps Fargle. Someone they can actually get enthused for. Just as in Summer 2019 when they despaired of May and her government.
The SNP score is particularly disappointing for me and I find it hard to relate to what I am seeing on the ground in Scotland. The SNP are almost invisible because they have no money. We have had 1 leaflet from the SNP and 6 from the Tories (neither Labour nor the Lib Dems are wasting their time in this constituency, I am not even sure Reform are standing). This is in an SNP seat.
Will that make a difference, other than to the recycling bins? Who knows, but it is a long time since the SNP have had so little impact in a major election. I will be gutted if they pick up 37 seats, gutted.
On the ground in ANME: Tories - their freepost is dropping. Addressed to household not voter. No other activity that we are aware of SNP - no money but plenty of bodies. Extensively doorknocking. Labour - nothing at all Reform - nothing at all LibDem - selected doorknocking. We're targeting key wards rather than the whole constituency. Targets will get quite a lot of stuff through the letterbox. Plus a targeted Facebook ad campaign which will be pretty intensive in the remaining weeks
As for the SNP, we're getting that much of their vote is softer than usual. A lot of upset about the state of public services. The odd mention of corruption. Frequent mentions of arrogance and being taken for granted...
I guess likely outcome there is Tories & SNP in mid-30s with Lab 3rd and Libs 4th. Think Ross will edge it. Sorry, but I doubt there is a huge suppressed LibDem vote just waiting to surge out from Buckie, Fraserburgh and Peterhead.
Its possible! You've said a couple of times that there isn't a suppressed LD vote - it isn't suppressed! We have councillors! As for finishing behind Labour? Sure - could happen. But there is no sign of a Labour vote here either - finished 4th in 2019 and have zero representation.
Ross vs Logan? I think Logan. Ross is deeply unpopular even amongst his own people - they leaked the "we think his expenses are dodgy" story last weekend and provided quotes to the newspaper...
It was quite the thing, to see a Tory getting the Rayner treatment from his own side. Even - especially - if it did not come to anything in the end.
Plenty came of it. IPSA have cleared his dirty laundry as clean. Fine. Respect that. Not sure all the people who saw them will feel the same. It smells wrong, even if it is in order. In an election, feel matters way more than fact.
His newly adopted local association threw him under the bus. With what they believed to be a scandal they had helped cover up. Complete with quotes. *Even the Tories* felt it was wrong, rules or not.
The key scandal remains the abrupt sacking of Duguid. Tories demand that sick peopl go back to work - unless they are in the way. That action is definitely wrong, and the stench remains pungent.
If Ross turns up to the hustings on Thursday it could be interesting.
The Duguid thing is very unfortunate and delicate. He most certainly was not thrown under a bus. Circumstances made his candidature unviable. He's not just a bit sick I'm afraid. It's a sad situation.
In no way was his candidature unviable. He would not be able to campaign in person. His team would continue to push his name and his message as he continues to recover.
Remember that he remained on the candidate list and was selected whilst far more seriously ill than he is now. And he is getting better every day.
What they did to him was genuinely disgusting. And from what I read / hear it is universally felt.
No. You're wrong. While opinions may vary about whether Douglas Ross was right to go for the seat - he's taking a huge risk - there is no controversy among those close to this that DD simply couldn't stand. Appreciate the optics look bad but that's the situation.
Given that DD himself seems to think he could have, you're essentially implying there is more to this than his condition. Or that he is lying or deluded.
That may be the case, I've no idea. But it's hard to escape that conclusion.
Someone is lying
Duguid: "I must however clear up a factual inaccuracy. It has been reported and repeated that I am “unable to stand”. This is simply incorrect. Having been adopted by local members, I was very much looking forward to campaigning - albeit in a different format from normal. It was not my decision not to stand. It was the SCU Management Board that decided not to allow me to be the candidate although none of them had visited me. They apparently took this decision based on two visits from the Party Director and without receiving any professional medical prognosis."
Ross and the Tories put out that they had consulted with Duguid. He says they did not.
Yes. This was my understanding too. Of course it doesn't mean that @Burgessian is lying. There could be something either extremely unsavoury or extremely tragic going on with Duguid for instance.
You'd have thought though if that was the case then - certainly if it was tragic rather than unsavoury - they'd have reached out quietly to explain the situation and you'd just not bring it up. So unsavoury it is!
For clarity, at no point have I suggested @Burgessian is lying.
I have suggested that the Conservative Party has put out a story built on a lie. Which considering all of the other lies put out by the Conservative party shouldn't be a shock
People will need to judge whether they can trust the word of Douglas Ross this time. With the consideration that his word is basically worthless considering how many times he says something then does the opposite. Including not seeking reelection at Westminster because he needs to focus on his role at Holyrood. Now he says he will definitely quit Holyrood. We can trust his word. Mmmmm.
@Leon I’m on TikTok and Farage is not “all over it”
Yes, Reform are doing a better job than the tories on most social media but Labour are way ahead of both in terms of output and followers.
What you just can’t accept is that Farage is marmite. A lot of people on the right loathe him. He is not the answer.
Your description of him as a right wing Corbyn is - I think - spot on.
While he'd do a terrific job of uniting (much of) the Conservative vote and (all of) the Reform vote, he'd also supercharge tactical voting against the Conservative-Reform Party.
Which is a big problem in FPTP, unless you're getting 45% of the vote. And I don't believe that a Conservative-Reform Party led by Farage would be getting 45% of the vote.
Corbyn never clocked that for every vote he won he lost two. Farage is worse.
I disagree. This analysis is totally wrong. Farage is a vastly more significant figure and a much more powerful politician
Corbyn is just a standard dim lefty fringe crank who got lucky when Labour nominated him for the lols. Farage single handedly turned UKIP into a major force, forced a referendum, and we brexited. Farage changed history, Corbyn is a footnote
And here is Farage again, transforming an election and threatening to destroy “the natural party of government”
The only similarity is that they are both polarising. That’s it
Farage would not have stood a chance against Blair in 1997.
He is thriving because people are furious about the Conservatives behaving like a poundshop Labour Party.
So people have been hoping Labour are are not going to make things far worse (hope more than expectation), unenthusiastic for dull and worthy Starmer and a bit repelled by Rayner and some of the others. But needs must, when it is raining and you are caught outside you need shelter, so they were resigned to Labour like a spinster settling for a dull but worthy suitor and hoping he would not run off with all their money.
Then in steps Fargle. Someone they can actually get enthused for. Just as in Summer 2019 when they despaired of May and her government.
Except people in polling rate “repellant” Rayner way higher than Farage. She’s one of the most popular and appealing politicians in the race.
Another variable for the PB election predictions competition? Maximum temperature in the UK on polling day.
I predict 27C.
We’re going from cold and miserable this last week, to milder but unsettled this week, to really rather nice the week after and then to mixed but very warm (I think) to start July.
I want it to be warm and summery. We need some optimism to welcome in the new era. I’ll always remember the weather on 23rd June 2016. Dark, stormy and menacing.
I remember Friday 2nd May 1997. A sunny morning and everybody beaming with a spring in their step.
Friday 5th July is going to be the same. Phew, people will be saying. Got rid.
There’s a scenario where everyone is quite happy with this election. Say:
Labour win an 80-90 seat majority. Not as huge as some polls suggested, but pretty damn good
Conservatives keep 200 seats. A big sigh of relief. Live to fight another day. Just the pendulum of democracy
Lib Dems get 35 seats, including a couple of notable blue wall scalps. Pretty good. Not the mad numbers some polls were showing but by far the best since 2010.
SNP do much better than feared. Swingback in the closing stages and a collapse of unionist tactical voting. They lose seats, but remain 3rd party in Westminster
Reform win 2 or 3 seats including Clactom, even though their vote gets seriously squeezed. Nigel has his place in the sun and a foothold to justify more appearances on QT.
Greens keep Brighton Pavilion and win Bristol central.
Galloway retains Rochdale. The grift goes on.
In that scenario everyone might head off on summer holidays feeling reasonably contented.
Not the LDs. If we aren't in third place ahead of the SNP we won't feel content!
If Bairstow or Brook had got out early as well, England could have been in a world of trouble. Why no Jacks is just bizarre.
Not as bizarre as no Wood. He would have scared their batsmen on this pitch.
I guess they were worried about going for lots of runs. But yes, the thing that players who are lesser can't cope is insane pace. There is just a massive difference between 80-85, then getting between 85-90, and then the insanity of 95.
I found this out myself. I faced 80-85 most weekends and was ok. On rare occasion, I faced 85-90, and was in a world of hurt. I don't even want to think about 95.
Another variable for the PB election predictions competition? Maximum temperature in the UK on polling day.
I predict 27C.
We’re going from cold and miserable this last week, to milder but unsettled this week, to really rather nice the week after and then to mixed but very warm (I think) to start July.
I want it to be warm and summery. We need some optimism to welcome in the new era. I’ll always remember the weather on 23rd June 2016. Dark, stormy and menacing.
I remember Friday 2nd May 1997. A sunny morning and everybody beaming with a spring in their step.
Friday 5th July is going to be the same. Phew, people will be saying. Got rid.
There’s a scenario where everyone is quite happy with this election. Say:
Labour win an 80-90 seat majority. Not as huge as some polls suggested, but pretty damn good
Conservatives keep 200 seats. A big sigh of relief. Live to fight another day. Just the pendulum of democracy
Lib Dems get 35 seats, including a couple of notable blue wall scalps. Pretty good. Not the mad numbers some polls were showing but by far the best since 2010.
SNP do much better than feared. Swingback in the closing stages and a collapse of unionist tactical voting. They lose seats, but remain 3rd party in Westminster
Reform win 2 or 3 seats including Clactom, even though their vote gets seriously squeezed. Nigel has his place in the sun and a foothold to justify more appearances on QT.
Greens keep Brighton Pavilion and win Bristol central.
Galloway retains Rochdale. The grift goes on.
In that scenario everyone might head off on summer holidays feeling reasonably contented.
Not the LDs. If we aren't in third place ahead of the SNP we won't feel content!
Speak for yourself. I’ve conditioned myself to lose seats in all elections.
If Bairstow or Brook had got out early as well, England could have been in a world of trouble. Why no Jacks is just bizarre.
It really, really isn't.
It is. Bringing in Curran for him, somebody who has been in terrible form.
Jacks - 3 matches, 2 innings, 15 runs.
That isn't how T20 works. It is when you get in, you destroy. Its expected you fail more often than not. He was fantastic in IPL 2024.
Its like the numpty commentators who look at T20 average. Its irrelevant. It is all about if you get a start that you can destory to a level that you win the game for your side.
Just had a shock as saw blue lights behind me so pulled over to let them past and instead they stopped behind me. Cop asked me to get into the back of their car.
Asked if I had insurance on my vehicle, said of course I did, and they said its showing on their system as uninsured. I said I got it through the dealer, which I did. Their colleague asked how long ago, I said it's a 73 reg so late last year, November from memory and it's a 12 month policy. Was asked if I had proof of insurance so searched my emails and pulled up the policy and showed it to him, he took a look and said he's satisfied but I should get in touch as it's not showing on their system. Glad I had phone signal to pull it up.
Had a deeper look since they drove off and spotted there's a typo on the reg plate on the certificate, which will be why it wasn't showing. Surprised it's just come up now as I've had it for ~8 months. Bad for a typo when it was arranged via the dealer.
I'll have to get in touch on Monday morning but not sure the legality of it now, would a typo on the reg plate void the policy?
I've been in this exact situation as a 17 year old (car imported from NI so DVLA wasn't recognising the numberplate when I got the policy & so they went for the closest match). I was running through the whole losing my licence, criminal record, car impounded panic spiral when it happened.
Turns out car insurance goes with the car VIN not the plate, and that should be correct. It's a call them up next week to get it sorted issue, not a don't drive until it's fixed thing - you are insured until then.
How would the VIN be correct if the reg is wrong? You don’t have to give a VIN when you insure a car, and if the insurer has obtained a VIN it will have come from the reg plate given by the insured.
Another variable for the PB election predictions competition? Maximum temperature in the UK on polling day.
I predict 27C.
We’re going from cold and miserable this last week, to milder but unsettled this week, to really rather nice the week after and then to mixed but very warm (I think) to start July.
I want it to be warm and summery. We need some optimism to welcome in the new era. I’ll always remember the weather on 23rd June 2016. Dark, stormy and menacing.
I remember Friday 2nd May 1997. A sunny morning and everybody beaming with a spring in their step.
Friday 5th July is going to be the same. Phew, people will be saying. Got rid.
There’s a scenario where everyone is quite happy with this election. Say:
Labour win an 80-90 seat majority. Not as huge as some polls suggested, but pretty damn good
Conservatives keep 200 seats. A big sigh of relief. Live to fight another day. Just the pendulum of democracy
Lib Dems get 35 seats, including a couple of notable blue wall scalps. Pretty good. Not the mad numbers some polls were showing but by far the best since 2010.
SNP do much better than feared. Swingback in the closing stages and a collapse of unionist tactical voting. They lose seats, but remain 3rd party in Westminster
Reform win 2 or 3 seats including Clactom, even though their vote gets seriously squeezed. Nigel has his place in the sun and a foothold to justify more appearances on QT.
Greens keep Brighton Pavilion and win Bristol central.
Galloway retains Rochdale. The grift goes on.
In that scenario everyone might head off on summer holidays feeling reasonably contented.
Not the LDs. If we aren't in third place ahead of the SNP we won't feel content!
Speak for yourself. I’ve conditioned myself to lose seats in all elections.
Oh dear. The worst was 2015. Shocking. But the tide has really turned.
If Bairstow or Brook had got out early as well, England could have been in a world of trouble. Why no Jacks is just bizarre.
It really, really isn't.
It is. Bringing in Curran for him, somebody who has been in terrible form.
Jacks - 3 matches, 2 innings, 15 runs.
That isn't how T20 works. It is when you get in, you destroy. Its expected you fail more often than not. He was fantastic in IPL 2024.
He definitely did not look in in either of his two innings.
Speaking of which, after that no-ball first up this has been pretty good from Topley.
He has faced 17 balls. You can't say much about anything from that. In the IPL his SR 175.57, he singled handedly won games in the best T20 league in the world.
Its like judging Archer by that one terrible over he bowled a few weeks ago.
New polling by Charlesbye Communications shows that Cameron is the public’s preferred candidate to assume the leadership again after the election. He was on 25 per cent, with Farage on 20 per cent, one point ahead of Mordaunt, with the current bookmakers’ favourite Kemi Badenoch on 8 per cent. In the same survey, 2019 Tory voters put Mordaunt top on 27 per cent, three ahead of Cameron and four ahead of Farage, with Badenoch on 6 per cent.
As I was saying, we need the Cameron party (incorporating the Lib Dems) and the Farage party (incorporating the ERG and a bit of old Labour).
The job of the next Tory leader is to unite the right. It can't be someone who repels part of the voter coalition they need to put back together. At the mo I would say Penny Mordaunt seems best-placed.
Mordaunt loses her Portsmouth N seat to Labour on most current polls, Labour won it in 1997
More to the point, she doesn't really unite the right. Too woke.
Ironically probably the best candidate to unite the right would be Rees Mogg, a Tory but close friends with Farage and hugely popular with Leavers.
He may not turn on swing voters anymore than Corbyn did but he could unite the right behind him in the same way Corbyn united the left behind him
Why does unite the right mean "everything to the right of the Conservative Parliamentary Party 2024"? Why doesn't it mean "everything to the left of the Conservative Parliamentary Party 2024" - a much larger group.
As the latter are centrist swing voters, the former includes current Tory and Reform voters ie the right
That Reform seat list doesn't pass the smell test. The unexpectedly good SNP total might, however. The woad and tartan hardcore of the pro-independence vote is quite large, and they don't really have anywhere else to go. Nobody thinks the Scottish Greens or Alba are going to win any seats.
I maintain my assumption that the Tory membership will probably install Suella as the next leader, assuming that she is returned.
They won't get the chance. Tory MPs pick the final 2 and are more likely to pick Barclay and Tugendhat, both in ultra safe seats, or Cleverly if he holds Braintree which was Labour in 1997 and goes Labour again on some projections
This very much depends on the nature of the surviving Conservative MPs. Which, to be perfectly honest, would require one to generate a list of the likely remnants from a drubbing and make a guess as to their inclinations, which I can't be bothered to do. Is it your opinion that the remnant is likely not to be inclined to go charging off further to the right?
Yes, firstly as lots of ERG Leave MPs in the redwall and Leave marginal seats in areas like the Midlands, Wales, the North, Kent and Essex will lose their seats.
Second as CCHQ ensured the shortlists given to Tory Associations in safe seats where incumbent Tory MPs stood down were only Sunak loyalist centrists
"Centrists" LOL.
So that's the plan then. Take the Tories so low that he has the votes to stay on as leader from these loyalists. It all makes sense now.
If Bairstow or Brook had got out early as well, England could have been in a world of trouble. Why no Jacks is just bizarre.
It really, really isn't.
It is. Bringing in Curran for him, somebody who has been in terrible form.
Jacks - 3 matches, 2 innings, 15 runs.
That isn't how T20 works. It is when you get in, you destroy. Its expected you fail more often than not. He was fantastic in IPL 2024.
He definitely did not look in in either of his two innings.
Speaking of which, after that no-ball first up this has been pretty good from Topley.
He has faced 17 balls. You can't say much about anything from that. In the IPL his SR 175.57, he singled handedly won games in the best T20 league in the world.
On very different pitches.
Looked like Archer was bowling on a different pitch from Topley there as well, but he was rather unlucky.
Shocked at how ill King Charles looked at the Trooping of the Colour.
I really do wonder now if Sunak was briefed on his condition - and decided he had no choice but to go for an earlier election than one later in the year that might have had a period of official mourning in the middle of it. It would explain much, particularly why the Cabinet weren't party to that decision.
Another variable for the PB election predictions competition? Maximum temperature in the UK on polling day.
I predict 27C.
We’re going from cold and miserable this last week, to milder but unsettled this week, to really rather nice the week after and then to mixed but very warm (I think) to start July.
I want it to be warm and summery. We need some optimism to welcome in the new era. I’ll always remember the weather on 23rd June 2016. Dark, stormy and menacing.
I remember Friday 2nd May 1997. A sunny morning and everybody beaming with a spring in their step.
Friday 5th July is going to be the same. Phew, people will be saying. Got rid.
There’s a scenario where everyone is quite happy with this election. Say:
Labour win an 80-90 seat majority. Not as huge as some polls suggested, but pretty damn good
Conservatives keep 200 seats. A big sigh of relief. Live to fight another day. Just the pendulum of democracy
Lib Dems get 35 seats, including a couple of notable blue wall scalps. Pretty good. Not the mad numbers some polls were showing but by far the best since 2010.
SNP do much better than feared. Swingback in the closing stages and a collapse of unionist tactical voting. They lose seats, but remain 3rd party in Westminster
Reform win 2 or 3 seats including Clactom, even though their vote gets seriously squeezed. Nigel has his place in the sun and a foothold to justify more appearances on QT.
Greens keep Brighton Pavilion and win Bristol central.
Galloway retains Rochdale. The grift goes on.
In that scenario everyone might head off on summer holidays feeling reasonably contented.
Yes. good plan. Can we call off the election and cash out now please?
The SNP score is particularly disappointing for me and I find it hard to relate to what I am seeing on the ground in Scotland. The SNP are almost invisible because they have no money. We have had 1 leaflet from the SNP and 6 from the Tories (neither Labour nor the Lib Dems are wasting their time in this constituency, I am not even sure Reform are standing). This is in an SNP seat.
Will that make a difference, other than to the recycling bins? Who knows, but it is a long time since the SNP have had so little impact in a major election. I will be gutted if they pick up 37 seats, gutted.
On the ground in ANME: Tories - their freepost is dropping. Addressed to household not voter. No other activity that we are aware of SNP - no money but plenty of bodies. Extensively doorknocking. Labour - nothing at all Reform - nothing at all LibDem - selected doorknocking. We're targeting key wards rather than the whole constituency. Targets will get quite a lot of stuff through the letterbox. Plus a targeted Facebook ad campaign which will be pretty intensive in the remaining weeks
As for the SNP, we're getting that much of their vote is softer than usual. A lot of upset about the state of public services. The odd mention of corruption. Frequent mentions of arrogance and being taken for granted...
I guess likely outcome there is Tories & SNP in mid-30s with Lab 3rd and Libs 4th. Think Ross will edge it. Sorry, but I doubt there is a huge suppressed LibDem vote just waiting to surge out from Buckie, Fraserburgh and Peterhead.
Its possible! You've said a couple of times that there isn't a suppressed LD vote - it isn't suppressed! We have councillors! As for finishing behind Labour? Sure - could happen. But there is no sign of a Labour vote here either - finished 4th in 2019 and have zero representation.
Ross vs Logan? I think Logan. Ross is deeply unpopular even amongst his own people - they leaked the "we think his expenses are dodgy" story last weekend and provided quotes to the newspaper...
It was quite the thing, to see a Tory getting the Rayner treatment from his own side. Even - especially - if it did not come to anything in the end.
Plenty came of it. IPSA have cleared his dirty laundry as clean. Fine. Respect that. Not sure all the people who saw them will feel the same. It smells wrong, even if it is in order. In an election, feel matters way more than fact.
His newly adopted local association threw him under the bus. With what they believed to be a scandal they had helped cover up. Complete with quotes. *Even the Tories* felt it was wrong, rules or not.
The key scandal remains the abrupt sacking of Duguid. Tories demand that sick peopl go back to work - unless they are in the way. That action is definitely wrong, and the stench remains pungent.
If Ross turns up to the hustings on Thursday it could be interesting.
The Duguid thing is very unfortunate and delicate. He most certainly was not thrown under a bus. Circumstances made his candidature unviable. He's not just a bit sick I'm afraid. It's a sad situation.
In no way was his candidature unviable. He would not be able to campaign in person. His team would continue to push his name and his message as he continues to recover.
Remember that he remained on the candidate list and was selected whilst far more seriously ill than he is now. And he is getting better every day.
What they did to him was genuinely disgusting. And from what I read / hear it is universally felt.
No. You're wrong. While opinions may vary about whether Douglas Ross was right to go for the seat - he's taking a huge risk - there is no controversy among those close to this that DD simply couldn't stand. Appreciate the optics look bad but that's the situation.
Given that DD himself seems to think he could have, you're essentially implying there is more to this than his condition. Or that he is lying or deluded.
That may be the case, I've no idea. But it's hard to escape that conclusion.
Someone is lying
Duguid: "I must however clear up a factual inaccuracy. It has been reported and repeated that I am “unable to stand”. This is simply incorrect. Having been adopted by local members, I was very much looking forward to campaigning - albeit in a different format from normal. It was not my decision not to stand. It was the SCU Management Board that decided not to allow me to be the candidate although none of them had visited me. They apparently took this decision based on two visits from the Party Director and without receiving any professional medical prognosis."
Ross and the Tories put out that they had consulted with Duguid. He says they did not.
As I said its delicate. Can't say more. But you simply shouldn't believe the worst. I'll leave it now.
Taking this to mean that there is some sort of legitimate reason (e.g. dementia) for the contrasting information, is there an accepted mechanism by which someone on the Tories can reach out to all the candidates/media to give some kind of explanation in that case? Analogous to vote pairing when a member is ill.
Simply claiming there is a reason obviously cannot cut it. Not that I have a right to know, but @RochdalePioneers certainly does.
If Bairstow or Brook had got out early as well, England could have been in a world of trouble. Why no Jacks is just bizarre.
It really, really isn't.
It is. Bringing in Curran for him, somebody who has been in terrible form.
Jacks - 3 matches, 2 innings, 15 runs.
That isn't how T20 works. It is when you get in, you destroy. Its expected you fail more often than not. He was fantastic in IPL 2024.
He definitely did not look in in either of his two innings.
Speaking of which, after that no-ball first up this has been pretty good from Topley.
If anything I play him to try and get him in a game. Just like Brook has in the end.
I just don't see Curran being part of the plan. Why not go Duckett if you want another batter, also left handed for a bit of variation and surprised to the upside on all sorts of pitches over the past year or so.
Shocked at how ill King Charles looked at the Trooping of the Colour.
I really do wonder now if Sunak was briefed on his condition - and decided he had no choice but to go for an earlier election than one later in the year that might have had a period of official mourning in the middle of it. It would explain much, particularly why the Cabinet weren't party to that decision.
6th November is his target.
At that point, he will have reigned one day longer than Richard III, who had the shortest reign of any crowned king since the Norman Conquest.
Rochdale's comment re: he & fellow LDs targeting selected wards up on the fringe of Caledonia, is that here in USA political campaigners have access to a deal of data on INDIVIDUAL voters.
We also targeted specific geographic areas, down to specific voting precincts the lowest level for which detailed election results are available, often compared with demographic data from US Census Bureau and other sources.
HOWEVER, this is balanced, and superseded by reliance on data about individuals; for example, targeting the 30% of likely voters who are Democrats in a voting precinct that's at least 60% Republican.
Note that official voting records readily available in first instance from official sources, to the extent of providing info that this legally public record; for example, in WA State the date of birth of registered voter is NOT public record, but their Age in years is furnished upon request.
In addition to which elections a particular voter has actually voted in, after March 2024 WA State presidential primary, election officials published online record of primary voter ballot choice, either Democratic or Republican, or none of the above. (Had to be D or R to be counted.) This is a BIG DEAL in a state which otherwise does NOT have party registration.)
Then the Secretary of State and county election officials took this info down after six weeks, when by law it was no longer public record. HOWEVER, anyone who downloaded it during the window of opportunity still has it; which is key information for candidates campaigning in the August 6 WA primary who hope to make the Top Two so they advance to the general election ballot.
This illustrates how officially-available info can and is provided by parties, groups AND commercial firms providing data and lists to parties and candidates. Typically official info on individual voters enhanced with a wide range of other data, ranging from hunting licenses, veteran status & magazine subscriptions, to computer modeling giving probabilities for individual turnout, partisanship and issue propensity, such as pro-choice compared with pro-life.
Generally canvassers have access to select data for targeted voters and households via their cell phones. With ability to make notes, in particular rating people they actually speak on say a 1-to-5 score with 1 = supporter and 5 = opposed.
ALSO in addition to door-to-door canvassing, targeted voters and households via txting, social media, direct mail and . . . lest we forget . . . television both cable & broadcast. ALL of these will be targeted in some fashion to specific groups voters, with budgeting and scheduling as critical as targeting.
Of course, in USA politicos generally have more money to deploy than UK, or at least fewer limits on what's both legal and possible. Also, we have lover turnouts but more & more frequent elections, the two later being part of the reason for the former,
Shocked at how ill King Charles looked at the Trooping of the Colour.
I really do wonder now if Sunak was briefed on his condition - and decided he had no choice but to go for an earlier election than one later in the year that might have had a period of official mourning in the middle of it. It would explain much, particularly why the Cabinet weren't party to that decision.
I've always had a suspicion the King's condition is very serious, so you may be right.
Shocked at how ill King Charles looked at the Trooping of the Colour.
I really do wonder now if Sunak was briefed on his condition - and decided he had no choice but to go for an earlier election than one later in the year that might have had a period of official mourning in the middle of it. It would explain much, particularly why the Cabinet weren't party to that decision.
I've always had a suspicion the King's condition is very serious, so you may be right.
The way they don't really say what cancer etc is a bit suss to me. That suggests to me if it was revealed what it was, people might do a google and find outcomes not being great.
Shocked at how ill King Charles looked at the Trooping of the Colour.
I really do wonder now if Sunak was briefed on his condition - and decided he had no choice but to go for an earlier election than one later in the year that might have had a period of official mourning in the middle of it. It would explain much, particularly why the Cabinet weren't party to that decision.
I've always had a suspicion the King's condition is very serious, so you may be right.
The way they don't really say what cancer etc is a bit suss to me. That suggests to me if it was revealed what it was, people might do a google and find outcomes not being great.
Lots have foreign media has speculated it's Pancreatic but British media have been very professional in not speculating.
New polling by Charlesbye Communications shows that Cameron is the public’s preferred candidate to assume the leadership again after the election. He was on 25 per cent, with Farage on 20 per cent, one point ahead of Mordaunt, with the current bookmakers’ favourite Kemi Badenoch on 8 per cent. In the same survey, 2019 Tory voters put Mordaunt top on 27 per cent, three ahead of Cameron and four ahead of Farage, with Badenoch on 6 per cent.
As I was saying, we need the Cameron party (incorporating the Lib Dems) and the Farage party (incorporating the ERG and a bit of old Labour).
The job of the next Tory leader is to unite the right. It can't be someone who repels part of the voter coalition they need to put back together. At the mo I would say Penny Mordaunt seems best-placed.
Mordaunt loses her Portsmouth N seat to Labour on most current polls, Labour won it in 1997
More to the point, she doesn't really unite the right. Too woke.
Ironically probably the best candidate to unite the right would be Rees Mogg, a Tory but close friends with Farage and hugely popular with Leavers.
He may not turn on swing voters anymore than Corbyn did but he could unite the right behind him in the same way Corbyn united the left behind him
The red wall is not going to vote for Rees Mogg.
Neither is most of the blue wall.
If the answer is JRM, the question is clearly not who is the next leader of mostbof the Tories.
Would imagine that Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg is in good with the Amalgamated Sedan Chair Carriers and Rickshaw Runners Union?
At least those that do NOT have to haul JRM's ass about from hither to yonder.
Shocked at how ill King Charles looked at the Trooping of the Colour.
I really do wonder now if Sunak was briefed on his condition - and decided he had no choice but to go for an earlier election than one later in the year that might have had a period of official mourning in the middle of it. It would explain much, particularly why the Cabinet weren't party to that decision.
I've always had a suspicion the King's condition is very serious, so you may be right.
The way they don't really say what cancer etc is a bit suss to me. That suggests to me if it was revealed what it was, people might do a google and find outcomes not being great.
Lots have foreign media has speculated it's Pancreatic but British media have been very professional in not speculating.
If it was pancreatic there's a good chance he'd be dead by now. It takes you fast.
Just had a shock as saw blue lights behind me so pulled over to let them past and instead they stopped behind me. Cop asked me to get into the back of their car.
Asked if I had insurance on my vehicle, said of course I did, and they said its showing on their system as uninsured. I said I got it through the dealer, which I did. Their colleague asked how long ago, I said it's a 73 reg so late last year, November from memory and it's a 12 month policy. Was asked if I had proof of insurance so searched my emails and pulled up the policy and showed it to him, he took a look and said he's satisfied but I should get in touch as it's not showing on their system. Glad I had phone signal to pull it up.
Had a deeper look since they drove off and spotted there's a typo on the reg plate on the certificate, which will be why it wasn't showing. Surprised it's just come up now as I've had it for ~8 months. Bad for a typo when it was arranged via the dealer.
I'll have to get in touch on Monday morning but not sure the legality of it now, would a typo on the reg plate void the policy?
I've been in this exact situation as a 17 year old (car imported from NI so DVLA wasn't recognising the numberplate when I got the policy & so they went for the closest match). I was running through the whole losing my licence, criminal record, car impounded panic spiral when it happened.
Turns out car insurance goes with the car VIN not the plate, and that should be correct. It's a call them up next week to get it sorted issue, not a don't drive until it's fixed thing - you are insured until then.
How would the VIN be correct if the reg is wrong? You don’t have to give a VIN when you insure a car, and if the insurer has obtained a VIN it will have come from the reg plate given by the insured.
Yeah that's a good point - might not be the VIN but the chassis? I wasn't much in the mood to ask deeper questions having been given the all clear but the policewoman was pretty clear with me that I was still insured despite the typo.
Tournament system is all wrong. 21 teams in three groups of 7. Super nine to find two finalists. Spare days so every game is completed. I know that would take longer. But 4 T20 games isn't a measure of anything. Let alone if half of them are washed out.
England are going to win this, but they aren't half making it hard work. Not exactly building confidence if you can't get wickets / restrict the runs about the mighty Namibia.
I agree that the foundations of Reform’s ascent are rocky but I think there might still be value in betting on them and the Lib Dems to accidentally win 3 way marginals.
I can see they were 33/1 in Great Yarmouth before Survation dropped and are now 4/1. Even as trading bets there might be value out there if similar polls come through from others.
Shocked at how ill King Charles looked at the Trooping of the Colour.
I really do wonder now if Sunak was briefed on his condition - and decided he had no choice but to go for an earlier election than one later in the year that might have had a period of official mourning in the middle of it. It would explain much, particularly why the Cabinet weren't party to that decision.
I've always had a suspicion the King's condition is very serious, so you may be right.
The way they don't really say what cancer etc is a bit suss to me. That suggests to me if it was revealed what it was, people might do a google and find outcomes not being great.
Lots have foreign media has speculated it's Pancreatic but British media have been very professional in not speculating.
If it was pancreatic there's a good chance he'd be dead by now. It takes you fast.
It does. But he wouldn't be short of the very best medical treatment.
If Bairstow or Brook had got out early as well, England could have been in a world of trouble. Why no Jacks is just bizarre.
Not as bizarre as no Wood. He would have scared their batsmen on this pitch.
I guess they were worried about going for lots of runs. But yes, the thing that players who are lesser can't cope is insane pace. There is just a massive difference between 80-85, then getting between 85-90, and then the insanity of 95.
I found this out myself. I faced 80-85 most weekends and was ok. On rare occasion, I faced 85-90, and was in a world of hurt. I don't even want to think about 95.
Thanks for all the replies about the insurance. Got home now and looking further online it seems this is a surprisingly common occurrence. The MIB (whom the Police said they use and it's not flagging on) have a page on their site giving advice over it too.
Will get in touch on Monday. I suppose the policy has my name, address, make and model of the vehicle plus the vehicle is registered in my name at my address with all but one character of the reg plate the same ... and the insurance policy was arranged by the main dealer I bought the car from ... so it should be pretty obvious to anyone that it's a typo that just needs fixing.
Shocked at how ill King Charles looked at the Trooping of the Colour.
I really do wonder now if Sunak was briefed on his condition - and decided he had no choice but to go for an earlier election than one later in the year that might have had a period of official mourning in the middle of it. It would explain much, particularly why the Cabinet weren't party to that decision.
I've always had a suspicion the King's condition is very serious, so you may be right.
The way they don't really say what cancer etc is a bit suss to me. That suggests to me if it was revealed what it was, people might do a google and find outcomes not being great.
Lots have foreign media has speculated it's Pancreatic but British media have been very professional in not speculating.
If it was pancreatic there's a good chance he'd be dead by now. It takes you fast.
It’s possible that it was found early by accident (often no symptoms until it’s too late) and thus his case is not typical.
Shocked at how ill King Charles looked at the Trooping of the Colour.
I really do wonder now if Sunak was briefed on his condition - and decided he had no choice but to go for an earlier election than one later in the year that might have had a period of official mourning in the middle of it. It would explain much, particularly why the Cabinet weren't party to that decision.
I've always had a suspicion the King's condition is very serious, so you may be right.
The way they don't really say what cancer etc is a bit suss to me. That suggests to me if it was revealed what it was, people might do a google and find outcomes not being great.
Lots have foreign media has speculated it's Pancreatic but British media have been very professional in not speculating.
If it was pancreatic there's a good chance he'd be dead by now. It takes you fast.
It’s possible that it was found early by accident (often no symptoms until it’s too late) and thus his case is not typical.
Whatever cancer it is, that is exactly how it was found no? Didn't he go for one thing and they then said oh, no its much more serious, it cancer.
Shocked at how ill King Charles looked at the Trooping of the Colour.
I really do wonder now if Sunak was briefed on his condition - and decided he had no choice but to go for an earlier election than one later in the year that might have had a period of official mourning in the middle of it. It would explain much, particularly why the Cabinet weren't party to that decision.
I've always had a suspicion the King's condition is very serious, so you may be right.
The way they don't really say what cancer etc is a bit suss to me. That suggests to me if it was revealed what it was, people might do a google and find outcomes not being great.
Lots have foreign media has speculated it's Pancreatic but British media have been very professional in not speculating.
If it was pancreatic there's a good chance he'd be dead by now. It takes you fast.
It’s possible that it was found early by accident (often no symptoms until it’s too late) and thus his case is not typical.
Whatever cancer it is, that is exactly how it was found no? Didn't he go for one thing and they then said oh, no its much more serious, it cancer.
I’m guessing PET scan related to the other condition. But hey, he’s the king, so I expect a lot of scans and tests are routine.
Shocked at how ill King Charles looked at the Trooping of the Colour.
I really do wonder now if Sunak was briefed on his condition - and decided he had no choice but to go for an earlier election than one later in the year that might have had a period of official mourning in the middle of it. It would explain much, particularly why the Cabinet weren't party to that decision.
I've always had a suspicion the King's condition is very serious, so you may be right.
The way they don't really say what cancer etc is a bit suss to me. That suggests to me if it was revealed what it was, people might do a google and find outcomes not being great.
Lots have foreign media has speculated it's Pancreatic but British media have been very professional in not speculating.
If it was pancreatic there's a good chance he'd be dead by now. It takes you fast.
It’s possible that it was found early by accident (often no symptoms until it’s too late) and thus his case is not typical.
Yeah, I would suspect they found it through routine blood work when he went in for his prostate operation.
I suspect the Reforgasm has peaked already. Farage won a news cycle in the air war, and that’s that. But ground level activity matters too, and we all know that he can’t manage it.
I’m currently headed to south of France for work, but I’ll be on the ground in London shortly to sniff out the “mood”.
I suspect the Reforgasm has peaked already. Farage won a news cycle in the air war, and that’s that. But ground level activity matters too, and we all know that he can’t manage that.
I’m currently headed to south of France for work, but I’ll be on the ground in London shortly to sniff out the “mood”.
Round my neck of the woods, it would be hard to tell there is even an election on.
I suspect the Reforgasm has peaked already. Farage won a news cycle in the air war, and that’s that. But ground level activity matters too, and we all know that he can’t manage it.
I’m currently headed to south of France for work, but I’ll be on the ground in London shortly to sniff out the “mood”.
It will be funny of Nigel yet again fails to win a seat after hyping himself up THE official Opposition for SKS.
Shocked at how ill King Charles looked at the Trooping of the Colour.
I really do wonder now if Sunak was briefed on his condition - and decided he had no choice but to go for an earlier election than one later in the year that might have had a period of official mourning in the middle of it. It would explain much, particularly why the Cabinet weren't party to that decision.
I've always had a suspicion the King's condition is very serious, so you may be right.
The way they don't really say what cancer etc is a bit suss to me. That suggests to me if it was revealed what it was, people might do a google and find outcomes not being great.
Lots have foreign media has speculated it's Pancreatic but British media have been very professional in not speculating.
If it was pancreatic there's a good chance he'd be dead by now. It takes you fast.
It’s possible that it was found early by accident (often no symptoms until it’s too late) and thus his case is not typical.
There are some new treatments for pancreatic - though still only in clinical trials rather than approved drugs.
I suspect the Reforgasm has peaked already. Farage won a news cycle in the air war, and that’s that. But ground level activity matters too, and we all know that he can’t manage it.
I’m currently headed to south of France for work, but I’ll be on the ground in London shortly to sniff out the “mood”.
I'm on the Conservatives at 5s there (still available at BF), and I think that's still a value bet. Couple of quid on Labour in the mid teens to cover my stake if they come through the middle.
Shocked at how ill King Charles looked at the Trooping of the Colour.
I really do wonder now if Sunak was briefed on his condition - and decided he had no choice but to go for an earlier election than one later in the year that might have had a period of official mourning in the middle of it. It would explain much, particularly why the Cabinet weren't party to that decision.
No he called the general election as Braverman and co were near to the numbers needed for a VONC.
The King looked OK to me, pleased the Princess of Wales looked even better as this was her first public appearance in months.
Most with pancreatic cancer, the worst case cancer he may have, are dead within a year so hopefully it is not that. If it is at least the Wales' are united again and William now seems ready to take the throne if the worst happens. Camilla could be Queen Step Mother and retire to Highgrove.
Hopefully though Charles has many more years left as King and with the Queen
If Bairstow or Brook had got out early as well, England could have been in a world of trouble. Why no Jacks is just bizarre.
Not as bizarre as no Wood. He would have scared their batsmen on this pitch.
I guess they were worried about going for lots of runs. But yes, the thing that players who are lesser can't cope is insane pace. There is just a massive difference between 80-85, then getting between 85-90, and then the insanity of 95.
I found this out myself. I faced 80-85 most weekends and was ok. On rare occasion, I faced 85-90, and was in a world of hurt. I don't even want to think about 95.
There's a story about when Hank Aaron was asked to help with some coaching of an exceptional young minor league hitter who had really struggled when called up to the Majors at the Braves' preseason camp. He patiently explained how you could watch each of the various 95mph + pitchers and pick up where the fingers were positioned and which way the ball was rotating, at what speed, and how you should adjust your shoulders, stance and swing in response, depending on whether you wanted to make a base hit or saw a chance of a possible home run. And how you could just know it would be a ball safely left. "Does that answer your questions?" he said. "Not really. How do you see the fucking ball?" was the reply. Hank never coached.
That Reform seat list doesn't pass the smell test. The unexpectedly good SNP total might, however. The woad and tartan hardcore of the pro-independence vote is quite large, and they don't really have anywhere else to go. Nobody thinks the Scottish Greens or Alba are going to win any seats.
I maintain my assumption that the Tory membership will probably install Suella as the next leader, assuming that she is returned.
They won't get the chance. Tory MPs pick the final 2 and are more likely to pick Barclay and Tugendhat, both in ultra safe seats, or Cleverly if he holds Braintree which was Labour in 1997 and goes Labour again on some projections
This very much depends on the nature of the surviving Conservative MPs. Which, to be perfectly honest, would require one to generate a list of the likely remnants from a drubbing and make a guess as to their inclinations, which I can't be bothered to do. Is it your opinion that the remnant is likely not to be inclined to go charging off further to the right?
Yes, firstly as lots of ERG Leave MPs in the redwall and Leave marginal seats in areas like the Midlands, Wales, the North, Kent and Essex will lose their seats.
Second as CCHQ ensured the shortlists given to Tory Associations in safe seats where incumbent Tory MPs stood down were only Sunak loyalist centrists
"Centrists" LOL.
In 5 years time given the way the right is likely heading after this election, Sunak and Hunt loyalists will look like dripping wet lettuces compared to what likely leads the Conservatives then. That is even without the Conservative leader then being one Nigel Farage
I suspect the Reforgasm has peaked already. Farage won a news cycle in the air war, and that’s that. But ground level activity matters too, and we all know that he can’t manage it.
He got over 5 million votes and 30% in the 2019 Euro elections. I wouldn't bet on him getting fewer votes than that this time.
If Bairstow or Brook had got out early as well, England could have been in a world of trouble. Why no Jacks is just bizarre.
Not as bizarre as no Wood. He would have scared their batsmen on this pitch.
I guess they were worried about going for lots of runs. But yes, the thing that players who are lesser can't cope is insane pace. There is just a massive difference between 80-85, then getting between 85-90, and then the insanity of 95.
I found this out myself. I faced 80-85 most weekends and was ok. On rare occasion, I faced 85-90, and was in a world of hurt. I don't even want to think about 95.
There's a story about when Hank Aaron was asked to help with some coaching of an exceptional young minor league hitter who had really struggled when called up to the Majors at the Braves' preseason camp. He patiently explained how you could watch each of the various 95mph + pitchers and pick up where the fingers were positioned and which way the ball was rotating, at what speed, and how you should adjust your shoulders, stance and swing in response, depending on whether you wanted to make a base hit or saw a chance of a possible home run. And how you could just know it would be a ball safely left. "Does that answer your questions?" he said. "Not really. How do you see the fucking ball?" was the reply. Hank never coached.
They did some experiments where they strapped cameras to different ability players helmets for cricket. The "watch the ball" is nonsense when you reach these speeds, they found the elite players watch the release point and immediately their eyes moves to where the ball will pitch. The difference is they are right most of the time, other lesser players guesses are off even after using bowling machines.
And the pros definitely aren't "watching it onto the bat". They watch release, move head / body to best play where it will pitch, play shot. It is why all these change-ups (borrowed from baseball) are effective, it totally messes with their learned behaviour. Benny Howell has become a highly effective cricketer in T20 because he has mastered all these change of pace deliveries.
For baseball, there have been funny experiments where they have got major league batters to try to hit slower pitches and they really struggle, because again all their training / experience doesn't marry with what they are used to. Obviously after a short while they can adjust, but initially it is really hard for them. Its why the knuckle ball pitcher was popular for a while, despite throwing at such slow speeds.
I suspect the Reforgasm has peaked already. Farage won a news cycle in the air war, and that’s that. But ground level activity matters too, and we all know that he can’t manage it.
He got over 5 million votes and 30% in the 2019 Euro elections. I wouldn't bet on him getting fewer votes than that this time.
Not the same thing whatsoever.
I know many people who voted for Brexit then who would never contemplate voting for Farage to go into Parliament, or any of his ilk.
May as well count how many people voted for him on I'm A Celeb. It wasn't a proper election.
I suspect the Reforgasm has peaked already. Farage won a news cycle in the air war, and that’s that. But ground level activity matters too, and we all know that he can’t manage it.
I’m currently headed to south of France for work, but I’ll be on the ground in London shortly to sniff out the “mood”.
I'm on the Conservatives at 5s there (still available at BF), and I think that's still a value bet. Couple of quid on Labour in the mid teens to cover my stake if they come through the middle.
17 for Reform in Leics Middle. I really cannot see that myself. It is a strange constituency including the posh Rothley and Woodhouse Eaves, suburban Birstall and Glenfield, LFE and Braunstone.
If that is one of the 7 most likely Reform seats then I can't see them getting as many as that.
Shocked at how ill King Charles looked at the Trooping of the Colour.
I really do wonder now if Sunak was briefed on his condition - and decided he had no choice but to go for an earlier election than one later in the year that might have had a period of official mourning in the middle of it. It would explain much, particularly why the Cabinet weren't party to that decision.
No he called the general election as Braverman and co were near to the numbers needed for a VONC.
The King looked OK to me, pleased the Princess of Wales looked even better as this was her first public appearance in months.
Most with pancreatic cancer, the worst case cancer he may have, are dead within a year so hopefully it is not that. If it is at least the Wales' are united again and William now seems ready to take the throne if the worst happens. Camilla could be Queen Step Mother and retire to Highgrove.
Hopefully though Charles has many more years left as King and with the Queen
When I was being treated for leukaemia but in remission I visited my Mother in law to do some decorating. Neighbours called in and after I had left commented to her about how I’ll I looked. I really didn’t - I was perfectly fine at that point, with no trace of disease. I think they were projecting because they knew I was in treatment etc. I think Charles looks fine. He’s 75, not 45.
I suspect the Reforgasm has peaked already. Farage won a news cycle in the air war, and that’s that. But ground level activity matters too, and we all know that he can’t manage it.
I’m currently headed to south of France for work, but I’ll be on the ground in London shortly to sniff out the “mood”.
London will not show the mood of the country.
Just back from the pub in rural Dorset. No mention of the election apart from how Farage 'says it how it is'.
I suspect the Reforgasm has peaked already. Farage won a news cycle in the air war, and that’s that. But ground level activity matters too, and we all know that he can’t manage it.
He got over 5 million votes and 30% in the 2019 Euro elections. I wouldn't bet on him getting fewer votes than that this time.
Most of those 5m were a Tory vote strike, using it to tell May to sling her hook....
I suspect the Reforgasm has peaked already. Farage won a news cycle in the air war, and that’s that. But ground level activity matters too, and we all know that he can’t manage it.
He got over 5 million votes and 30% in the 2019 Euro elections. I wouldn't bet on him getting fewer votes than that this time.
Absolute nonsense comment. What was the turnout in the 2019 Euros? And how many of those 30% were “Get Brexit Done” Tories?
Rochdale's comment re: he & fellow LDs targeting selected wards up on the fringe of Caledonia, is that here in USA political campaigners have access to a deal of data on INDIVIDUAL voters.
We also targeted specific geographic areas, down to specific voting precincts the lowest level for which detailed election results are available, often compared with demographic data from US Census Bureau and other sources.
HOWEVER, this is balanced, and superseded by reliance on data about individuals; for example, targeting the 30% of likely voters who are Democrats in a voting precinct that's at least 60% Republican.
Note that official voting records readily available in first instance from official sources, to the extent of providing info that this legally public record; for example, in WA State the date of birth of registered voter is NOT public record, but their Age in years is furnished upon request.
In addition to which elections a particular voter has actually voted in, after March 2024 WA State presidential primary, election officials published online record of primary voter ballot choice, either Democratic or Republican, or none of the above. (Had to be D or R to be counted.) This is a BIG DEAL in a state which otherwise does NOT have party registration.)
Then the Secretary of State and county election officials took this info down after six weeks, when by law it was no longer public record. HOWEVER, anyone who downloaded it during the window of opportunity still has it; which is key information for candidates campaigning in the August 6 WA primary who hope to make the Top Two so they advance to the general election ballot.
This illustrates how officially-available info can and is provided by parties, groups AND commercial firms providing data and lists to parties and candidates. Typically official info on individual voters enhanced with a wide range of other data, ranging from hunting licenses, veteran status & magazine subscriptions, to computer modeling giving probabilities for individual turnout, partisanship and issue propensity, such as pro-choice compared with pro-life.
Generally canvassers have access to select data for targeted voters and households via their cell phones. With ability to make notes, in particular rating people they actually speak on say a 1-to-5 score with 1 = supporter and 5 = opposed.
ALSO in addition to door-to-door canvassing, targeted voters and households via txting, social media, direct mail and . . . lest we forget . . . television both cable & broadcast. ALL of these will be targeted in some fashion to specific groups voters, with budgeting and scheduling as critical as targeting.
Of course, in USA politicos generally have more money to deploy than UK, or at least fewer limits on what's both legal and possible. Also, we have lover turnouts but more & more frequent elections, the two later being part of the reason for the former,
Tbh, that sounds pretty similar to information and tools that British parties have access too.
I suspect the Reforgasm has peaked already. Farage won a news cycle in the air war, and that’s that. But ground level activity matters too, and we all know that he can’t manage it.
He got over 5 million votes and 30% in the 2019 Euro elections. I wouldn't bet on him getting fewer votes than that this time.
I was one of them!
But I'll be be keeping calmer and voting Starmer this time around!
To be clear, I think Farage is a modest favourite for Clacton, but Anderson will struggle in Ashfield. I don’t see Reform picking up any other seats, and I think they’ll be lucky to breach 10%.
I suspect the Reforgasm has peaked already. Farage won a news cycle in the air war, and that’s that. But ground level activity matters too, and we all know that he can’t manage it.
He got over 5 million votes and 30% in the 2019 Euro elections. I wouldn't bet on him getting fewer votes than that this time.
Most of those 5m were a Tory vote strike, using it to tell May to sling her hook....
I suspect the Reforgasm has peaked already. Farage won a news cycle in the air war, and that’s that. But ground level activity matters too, and we all know that he can’t manage it.
He got over 5 million votes and 30% in the 2019 Euro elections. I wouldn't bet on him getting fewer votes than that this time.
Most of those 5m were a Tory vote strike, using it to tell May to sling her hook....
May was more popular than Sunak in these parts.
May was identifiably “one of us”. I don’t even mean this in a racist way. She just exuded middle England.
Sunak is the junior consultant from McKinsey who had come to size you up for potential efficiencies.
I suspect the Reforgasm has peaked already. Farage won a news cycle in the air war, and that’s that. But ground level activity matters too, and we all know that he can’t manage it.
I’m currently headed to south of France for work, but I’ll be on the ground in London shortly to sniff out the “mood”.
London will not show the mood of the country.
Just back from the pub in rural Dorset. No mention of the election apart from how Farage 'says it how it is'.
Did you ask them why Farage can’t manage himself out of a paper bag?
I suspect the Reforgasm has peaked already. Farage won a news cycle in the air war, and that’s that. But ground level activity matters too, and we all know that he can’t manage it.
He got over 5 million votes and 30% in the 2019 Euro elections. I wouldn't bet on him getting fewer votes than that this time.
Most of those 5m were a Tory vote strike, using it to tell May to sling her hook....
The one that might be a bit more relevant is the 3.8 million votes UKIP got in the 2015 general election.
Still only got them one seat though. The Faragist vote distribution is horrible- not really high enough and definitely not spiky enough.
Shocked at how ill King Charles looked at the Trooping of the Colour.
I really do wonder now if Sunak was briefed on his condition - and decided he had no choice but to go for an earlier election than one later in the year that might have had a period of official mourning in the middle of it. It would explain much, particularly why the Cabinet weren't party to that decision.
I've always had a suspicion the King's condition is very serious, so you may be right.
Two different (opposite sides) front-benchers of my acquaintance have - while well over the limit - said it's much more serious than is being let on.
But they are both very gossipy drama-queens so my assumption is it's just juicy gossip or else it would have leaked more widely by now.
I suspect the Reforgasm has peaked already. Farage won a news cycle in the air war, and that’s that. But ground level activity matters too, and we all know that he can’t manage it.
He got over 5 million votes and 30% in the 2019 Euro elections. I wouldn't bet on him getting fewer votes than that this time.
Absolute nonsense comment. What was the turnout in the 2019 Euros? And how many of those 30% were “Get Brexit Done” Tories?
Ok, if you reject that precedent, he got almost 4m votes in 2015 when up against Cameron in his prime. I find it difficult to believe he won't outperform numbers like that this time around.
The big uncertainty is do natural Tory voters just sit on their hands, do they in the end deploy the trademarked Poly nose peg or do they go f##k, vote for big Nige party in an attempt to turn over the apple cart. 1997 lots sat on their hands.
Up to 400 Russian soldiers reported surrendering after an aggregate plant in Vovchansk was surrounded by Ukrainan troops.
There have been more than a few hints that the wheels are starting to come off for Russia once again as their attacks peter out and the ammunition flow to Ukraine increases. We are getting more stories of Ukrainian counter attacks and far fewer of lost villages.
One of the famous signals from the US Marines in the Korean war was: "The enemy are in front of us, behind us and on both sides. They won't get away this time."
This is also the first major election where Farage will be a general-purpose populist rather than a single-issue Eurosceptic candidate. That pushes his theoretical ceiling much higher.
I suspect the Reforgasm has peaked already. Farage won a news cycle in the air war, and that’s that. But ground level activity matters too, and we all know that he can’t manage it.
He got over 5 million votes and 30% in the 2019 Euro elections. I wouldn't bet on him getting fewer votes than that this time.
Most of those 5m were a Tory vote strike, using it to tell May to sling her hook....
The one that might be a bit more relevant is the 3.8 million votes UKIP got in the 2015 general election.
Still only got them one seat though. The Faragist vote distribution is horrible- not really high enough and definitely not spiky enough.
Absolutely. And the ground game is practically non-existent, in part because those Reformers enthusiastic enough to actually door-knock are really bloody odd.
Up to 400 Russian soldiers reported surrendering after an aggregate plant in Vovchansk was surrounded by Ukrainan troops.
There have been more than a few hints that the wheels are starting to come off for Russia once again as their attacks peter out and the ammunition flow to Ukraine increases once again. We are getting more stories of Ukrainian counter attacks and far fewer of lost villages.
One of the famous signals from the US Marines in the Korean war was: "The enemy are in front of us, behind us and on both sides. They won't get away this time."
Sounds like the Russians had a different view.
It amazing how the wheels can come off when you use a load of poorly trained convicts as your fighting force.
Up to 400 Russian soldiers reported surrendering after an aggregate plant in Vovchansk was surrounded by Ukrainan troops.
There have been more than a few hints that the wheels are starting to come off for Russia once again as their attacks peter out and the ammunition flow to Ukraine increases once again. We are getting more stories of Ukrainian counter attacks and far fewer of lost villages.
One of the famous signals from the US Marines in the Korean war was: "The enemy are in front of us, behind us and on both sides. They won't get away this time."
Sounds like the Russians had a different view.
It amazing how the wheels can come off when you use a load of poorly trained convicts as your fighting force.
Some good news for Tory snobs with Survation MRP. Even though the Rishi led Tory party is projected to lose every redwall seat Boris won in 2019 and plenty more leave marginals besides it is forecast to hold Chelsea and Fulham, with 38% for Greg Hands to 36.7% for Labour and 11% for the LDs.
Chelsea and Fulham forecast with Survation to be one of only 2 Tory seats left in London, Orpington the other.
I suspect the Reforgasm has peaked already. Farage won a news cycle in the air war, and that’s that. But ground level activity matters too, and we all know that he can’t manage it.
He got over 5 million votes and 30% in the 2019 Euro elections. I wouldn't bet on him getting fewer votes than that this time.
Most of those 5m were a Tory vote strike, using it to tell May to sling her hook....
The one that might be a bit more relevant is the 3.8 million votes UKIP got in the 2015 general election.
Still only got them one seat though. The Faragist vote distribution is horrible- not really high enough and definitely not spiky enough.
Absolutely. And the ground game is practically non-existent, in part because those Reformers enthusiastic enough to actually door-knock are really bloody odd.
I don't know in todays world how important door knocking is (beyond knowing who might vote for whom). Reform have a very friendly tv channel in GB News (which also gets large viewership on things like YouTube) and there is social media which even the oldies are on the FaceAche, in fact they are the only ones on that these days.
The big uncertainty is do natural Tory voters just sit on their hands, do they in the end deploy the trademarked Poly nose peg or do they go f##k, vote for big Nige party in an attempt to turn over the apple cart. 1997 lots sat on their hands.
This time they have an alternative.
I suspect Reform vote will be larger in previously Tory seats.
This is also the first major election where Farage will be a general-purpose populist rather than a single-issue Eurosceptic candidate. That pushes his theoretical ceiling much higher.
But his ceiling as a convenient single issue protest vote much much lower.
Up to 400 Russian soldiers reported surrendering after an aggregate plant in Vovchansk was surrounded by Ukrainan troops.
There have been more than a few hints that the wheels are starting to come off for Russia once again as their attacks peter out and the ammunition flow to Ukraine increases once again. We are getting more stories of Ukrainian counter attacks and far fewer of lost villages.
One of the famous signals from the US Marines in the Korean war was: "The enemy are in front of us, behind us and on both sides. They won't get away this time."
Sounds like the Russians had a different view.
It amazing how the wheels can come off when you use a load of poorly trained convicts as your fighting force.
And when you are very dependent on your artillery and you are losing more than 30 systems a day. Ukrainian counterbattery has really stepped up of late.
I suspect the Reforgasm has peaked already. Farage won a news cycle in the air war, and that’s that. But ground level activity matters too, and we all know that he can’t manage it.
He got over 5 million votes and 30% in the 2019 Euro elections. I wouldn't bet on him getting fewer votes than that this time.
Most of those 5m were a Tory vote strike, using it to tell May to sling her hook....
The one that might be a bit more relevant is the 3.8 million votes UKIP got in the 2015 general election.
Still only got them one seat though. The Faragist vote distribution is horrible- not really high enough and definitely not spiky enough.
Absolutely. And the ground game is practically non-existent, in part because those Reformers enthusiastic enough to actually door-knock are really bloody odd.
I don't know in todays world how important door knocking is (beyond knowing who might vote for whom). Reform have a very friendly tv channel in GB News (which also gets large viewership on things like YouTube) and there is social media which even the oldies are on the FaceAche, in fact they are the only ones on that these days.
Ground game has basically been negated by social media.
I suspect the Reforgasm has peaked already. Farage won a news cycle in the air war, and that’s that. But ground level activity matters too, and we all know that he can’t manage it.
He got over 5 million votes and 30% in the 2019 Euro elections. I wouldn't bet on him getting fewer votes than that this time.
Most of those 5m were a Tory vote strike, using it to tell May to sling her hook....
The one that might be a bit more relevant is the 3.8 million votes UKIP got in the 2015 general election.
Still only got them one seat though. The Faragist vote distribution is horrible- not really high enough and definitely not spiky enough.
Absolutely. And the ground game is practically non-existent, in part because those Reformers enthusiastic enough to actually door-knock are really bloody odd.
I don't know in todays world how important door knocking is (beyond knowing who might vote for whom). Reform have a very friendly tv channel in GB News (which also gets large viewership on things like YouTube) and there is social media which even the oldies are on the FaceAche, in fact they are the only ones on that these days.
Some good news for Tory snobs with Survation MRP. Even though the Rishi led Tory party is projected to lose every redwall seat Boris won in 2019 and plenty more leave marginals besides it is forecast to hold Chelsea and Fulham, with 38% for Greg Hands to 36.7% for Labour and 11% for the LDs.
I suspect the Reforgasm has peaked already. Farage won a news cycle in the air war, and that’s that. But ground level activity matters too, and we all know that he can’t manage it.
He got over 5 million votes and 30% in the 2019 Euro elections. I wouldn't bet on him getting fewer votes than that this time.
Most of those 5m were a Tory vote strike, using it to tell May to sling her hook....
The one that might be a bit more relevant is the 3.8 million votes UKIP got in the 2015 general election.
Still only got them one seat though. The Faragist vote distribution is horrible- not really high enough and definitely not spiky enough.
Absolutely. And the ground game is practically non-existent, in part because those Reformers enthusiastic enough to actually door-knock are really bloody odd.
I don't know in todays world how important door knocking is (beyond knowing who might vote for whom). Reform have a very friendly tv channel in GB News (which also gets large viewership on things like YouTube) and there is social media which even the oldies are on the FaceAche, in fact they are the only ones on that these days.
Ground game has basically been negated by social media.
And why the main political parties spend a lot of money on ads on there.
I suspect the Reforgasm has peaked already. Farage won a news cycle in the air war, and that’s that. But ground level activity matters too, and we all know that he can’t manage it.
He got over 5 million votes and 30% in the 2019 Euro elections. I wouldn't bet on him getting fewer votes than that this time.
Most of those 5m were a Tory vote strike, using it to tell May to sling her hook....
The one that might be a bit more relevant is the 3.8 million votes UKIP got in the 2015 general election.
Still only got them one seat though. The Faragist vote distribution is horrible- not really high enough and definitely not spiky enough.
Absolutely. And the ground game is practically non-existent, in part because those Reformers enthusiastic enough to actually door-knock are really bloody odd.
I don't know in todays world how important door knocking is (beyond knowing who might vote for whom). Reform have a very friendly tv channel in GB News (which also gets large viewership on things like YouTube) and there is social media which even the oldies are on the FaceAche, in fact they are the only ones on that these days.
Some good news for Tory snobs with Survation MRP. Even though the Rishi led Tory party is projected to lose every redwall seat Boris won in 2019 and plenty more leave marginals besides it is forecast to hold Chelsea and Fulham, with 38% for Greg Hands to 36.7% for Labour and 11% for the LDs.
Shocked at how ill King Charles looked at the Trooping of the Colour.
I really do wonder now if Sunak was briefed on his condition - and decided he had no choice but to go for an earlier election than one later in the year that might have had a period of official mourning in the middle of it. It would explain much, particularly why the Cabinet weren't party to that decision.
I've always had a suspicion the King's condition is very serious, so you may be right.
The way they don't really say what cancer etc is a bit suss to me. That suggests to me if it was revealed what it was, people might do a google and find outcomes not being great.
Lots have foreign media has speculated it's Pancreatic but British media have been very professional in not speculating.
If it was pancreatic there's a good chance he'd be dead by now. It takes you fast.
It does. But he wouldn't be short of the very best medical treatment.
Nor would you in exactly his circumstances. Private medicine is not better than the NHS, it's the same consultants and surgeons moonlighting. Getting to the front of the queue is an issue, but cancer even now gets you there.
A friend of mine who was an anaesthetist got pancreatic cancer ten years ago He was popular with the surgeons and got platinum standard treatment, and it did him no good at all.
I think its really tricky to call it, other than Labour will win easily and the Tories are going to get smashed like a dockside hooker, but it could be a quiet Tuesday type of smashing or it could be peak New Year's Eve action.
I suspect the Reforgasm has peaked already. Farage won a news cycle in the air war, and that’s that. But ground level activity matters too, and we all know that he can’t manage it.
He got over 5 million votes and 30% in the 2019 Euro elections. I wouldn't bet on him getting fewer votes than that this time.
Most of those 5m were a Tory vote strike, using it to tell May to sling her hook....
The one that might be a bit more relevant is the 3.8 million votes UKIP got in the 2015 general election.
Still only got them one seat though. The Faragist vote distribution is horrible- not really high enough and definitely not spiky enough.
Absolutely. And the ground game is practically non-existent, in part because those Reformers enthusiastic enough to actually door-knock are really bloody odd.
I don't know in todays world how important door knocking is (beyond knowing who might vote for whom). Reform have a very friendly tv channel in GB News (which also gets large viewership on things like YouTube) and there is social media which even the oldies are on the FaceAche, in fact they are the only ones on that these days.
I was using it as a proxy for general ground organisation.
I accept that it’s less important than it used to be, but compare with the Lib Dems, who are focusing ruthlessly on key seats, and who actually have a pretty weak social media presence.
This is also the first major election where Farage will be a general-purpose populist rather than a single-issue Eurosceptic candidate. That pushes his theoretical ceiling much higher.
But it also exposes him to far more scrutiny on a wider range of issues. Being a single issue campaigner in a single issue campaign is not difficult. Doing it in a general election when everything is up for debate and where you personally are being scrutinised rather than just the single issue is a far more demanding and is not a position I think he is suited to.
I suspect the Reforgasm has peaked already. Farage won a news cycle in the air war, and that’s that. But ground level activity matters too, and we all know that he can’t manage it.
He got over 5 million votes and 30% in the 2019 Euro elections. I wouldn't bet on him getting fewer votes than that this time.
Most of those 5m were a Tory vote strike, using it to tell May to sling her hook....
The one that might be a bit more relevant is the 3.8 million votes UKIP got in the 2015 general election.
Still only got them one seat though. The Faragist vote distribution is horrible- not really high enough and definitely not spiky enough.
Absolutely. And the ground game is practically non-existent, in part because those Reformers enthusiastic enough to actually door-knock are really bloody odd.
I don't know in todays world how important door knocking is (beyond knowing who might vote for whom). Reform have a very friendly tv channel in GB News (which also gets large viewership on things like YouTube) and there is social media which even the oldies are on the FaceAche, in fact they are the only ones on that these days.
Some good news for Tory snobs with Survation MRP. Even though the Rishi led Tory party is projected to lose every redwall seat Boris won in 2019 and plenty more leave marginals besides it is forecast to hold Chelsea and Fulham, with 38% for Greg Hands to 36.7% for Labour and 11% for the LDs.
Farage is useful for blue wall and London Tories because he makes them seem relatively moderate and votable. The excuse many were waiting for.
What part of the Reform platform is extreme?
Admiring Putin Wanting net zero immigration Wanting to slash taxes while increasing spending and therefore bankrupting the country Thinking we should have made peace with Hitler in 1939
You seem to be planning to vote for them. Good luck with that.
I suspect the Reforgasm has peaked already. Farage won a news cycle in the air war, and that’s that. But ground level activity matters too, and we all know that he can’t manage it.
He got over 5 million votes and 30% in the 2019 Euro elections. I wouldn't bet on him getting fewer votes than that this time.
Most of those 5m were a Tory vote strike, using it to tell May to sling her hook....
The one that might be a bit more relevant is the 3.8 million votes UKIP got in the 2015 general election.
Still only got them one seat though. The Faragist vote distribution is horrible- not really high enough and definitely not spiky enough.
Absolutely. And the ground game is practically non-existent, in part because those Reformers enthusiastic enough to actually door-knock are really bloody odd.
I don't know in todays world how important door knocking is (beyond knowing who might vote for whom). Reform have a very friendly tv channel in GB News (which also gets large viewership on things like YouTube) and there is social media which even the oldies are on the FaceAche, in fact they are the only ones on that these days.
I was using it as a proxy for general ground organisation.
I accept that it’s less important than it used to be, but compare with the Lib Dems, who are focusing ruthlessly on key seats, and who actually have a pretty weak social media presence.
I am sure the Lib Dem tactics will work for them. Farage is obviously going for a different type of voter. I have no idea if it will work, or even if the polls are not calibrated properly for this expanded multi party universe e.g. we see Green on some very high scores that I struggle to believe they will achieve.
I suspect the Reforgasm has peaked already. Farage won a news cycle in the air war, and that’s that. But ground level activity matters too, and we all know that he can’t manage it.
He got over 5 million votes and 30% in the 2019 Euro elections. I wouldn't bet on him getting fewer votes than that this time.
Most of those 5m were a Tory vote strike, using it to tell May to sling her hook....
The one that might be a bit more relevant is the 3.8 million votes UKIP got in the 2015 general election.
Still only got them one seat though. The Faragist vote distribution is horrible- not really high enough and definitely not spiky enough.
Absolutely. And the ground game is practically non-existent, in part because those Reformers enthusiastic enough to actually door-knock are really bloody odd.
I don't know in todays world how important door knocking is (beyond knowing who might vote for whom). Reform have a very friendly tv channel in GB News (which also gets large viewership on things like YouTube) and there is social media which even the oldies are on the FaceAche, in fact they are the only ones on that these days.
Some good news for Tory snobs with Survation MRP. Even though the Rishi led Tory party is projected to lose every redwall seat Boris won in 2019 and plenty more leave marginals besides it is forecast to hold Chelsea and Fulham, with 38% for Greg Hands to 36.7% for Labour and 11% for the LDs.
Comments
He is thriving because people are furious about the Conservatives behaving like a poundshop Labour Party.
So people have been hoping Labour are are not going to make things far worse (hope more than expectation), unenthusiastic for dull and worthy Starmer and a bit repelled by Rayner and some of the others. But needs must, when it is raining and you are caught outside you need shelter, so they were resigned to Labour like a spinster settling for a dull but worthy suitor and hoping he would not run off with all their money.
Then in steps Fargle. Someone they can actually get enthused for. Just as in Summer 2019 when they despaired of May and her government.
I have suggested that the Conservative Party has put out a story built on a lie. Which considering all of the other lies put out by the Conservative party shouldn't be a shock
People will need to judge whether they can trust the word of Douglas Ross this time. With the consideration that his word is basically worthless considering how many times he says something then does the opposite. Including not seeking reelection at Westminster because he needs to focus on his role at Holyrood. Now he says he will definitely quit Holyrood. We can trust his word. Mmmmm.
I found this out myself. I faced 80-85 most weekends and was ok. On rare occasion, I faced 85-90, and was in a world of hurt. I don't even want to think about 95.
Its like the numpty commentators who look at T20 average. Its irrelevant. It is all about if you get a start that you can destory to a level that you win the game for your side.
Speaking of which, after that no-ball first up this has been pretty good from Topley.
Its like judging Archer by that one terrible over he bowled a few weeks ago.
Looked like Archer was bowling on a different pitch from Topley there as well, but he was rather unlucky.
I really do wonder now if Sunak was briefed on his condition - and decided he had no choice but to go for an earlier election than one later in the year that might have had a period of official mourning in the middle of it. It would explain much, particularly why the Cabinet weren't party to that decision.
Simply claiming there is a reason obviously cannot cut it. Not that I have a right to know, but @RochdalePioneers certainly does.
I just don't see Curran being part of the plan. Why not go Duckett if you want another batter, also left handed for a bit of variation and surprised to the upside on all sorts of pitches over the past year or so.
At that point, he will have reigned one day longer than Richard III, who had the shortest reign of any crowned king since the Norman Conquest.
We also targeted specific geographic areas, down to specific voting precincts the lowest level for which detailed election results are available, often compared with demographic data from US Census Bureau and other sources.
HOWEVER, this is balanced, and superseded by reliance on data about individuals; for example, targeting the 30% of likely voters who are Democrats in a voting precinct that's at least 60% Republican.
Note that official voting records readily available in first instance from official sources, to the extent of providing info that this legally public record; for example, in WA State the date of birth of registered voter is NOT public record, but their Age in years is furnished upon request.
In addition to which elections a particular voter has actually voted in, after March 2024 WA State presidential primary, election officials published online record of primary voter ballot choice, either Democratic or Republican, or none of the above. (Had to be D or R to be counted.) This is a BIG DEAL in a state which otherwise does NOT have party registration.)
Then the Secretary of State and county election officials took this info down after six weeks, when by law it was no longer public record. HOWEVER, anyone who downloaded it during the window of opportunity still has it; which is key information for candidates campaigning in the August 6 WA primary who hope to make the Top Two so they advance to the general election ballot.
This illustrates how officially-available info can and is provided by parties, groups AND commercial firms providing data and lists to parties and candidates. Typically official info on individual voters enhanced with a wide range of other data, ranging from hunting licenses, veteran status & magazine subscriptions, to computer modeling giving probabilities for individual turnout, partisanship and issue propensity, such as pro-choice compared with pro-life.
Generally canvassers have access to select data for targeted voters and households via their cell phones. With ability to make notes, in particular rating people they actually speak on say a 1-to-5 score with 1 = supporter and 5 = opposed.
ALSO in addition to door-to-door canvassing, targeted voters and households via txting, social media, direct mail and . . . lest we forget . . . television both cable & broadcast. ALL of these will be targeted in some fashion to specific groups voters, with budgeting and scheduling as critical as targeting.
Of course, in USA politicos generally have more money to deploy than UK, or at least fewer limits on what's both legal and possible. Also, we have lover turnouts but more & more frequent elections, the two later being part of the reason for the former,
At least those that do NOT have to haul JRM's ass about from hither to yonder.
21 teams in three groups of 7.
Super nine to find two finalists.
Spare days so every game is completed.
I know that would take longer. But 4 T20 games isn't a measure of anything. Let alone if half of them are washed out.
I can see they were 33/1 in Great Yarmouth before Survation dropped and are now 4/1. Even as trading bets there might be value out there if similar polls come through from others.
But he wouldn't be short of the very best medical treatment.
Will get in touch on Monday. I suppose the policy has my name, address, make and model of the vehicle plus the vehicle is registered in my name at my address with all but one character of the reg plate the same ... and the insurance policy was arranged by the main dealer I bought the car from ... so it should be pretty obvious to anyone that it's a typo that just needs fixing.
Farage won a news cycle in the air war, and that’s that. But ground level activity matters too, and we all know that he can’t manage it.
I’m currently headed to south of France for work, but I’ll be on the ground in London shortly to sniff out the “mood”.
The King looked OK to me, pleased the Princess of Wales looked even better as this was her first public appearance in months.
Most with pancreatic cancer, the worst case cancer he may have, are dead within a year so hopefully it is not that. If it is at least the Wales' are united again and William now seems ready to take the throne if the worst happens. Camilla could be Queen Step Mother and retire to Highgrove.
Hopefully though Charles has many more years left as King and with the Queen
He patiently explained how you could watch each of the various 95mph + pitchers and pick up where the fingers were positioned and which way the ball was rotating, at what speed, and how you should adjust your shoulders, stance and swing in response, depending on whether you wanted to make a base hit or saw a chance of a possible home run. And how you could just know it would be a ball safely left.
"Does that answer your questions?" he said.
"Not really. How do you see the fucking ball?" was
the reply.
Hank never coached.
Tbf if they beat the Aussies ( and no chucking from the Canary Yellow Shirts) then fair enough.
And the pros definitely aren't "watching it onto the bat". They watch release, move head / body to best play where it will pitch, play shot. It is why all these change-ups (borrowed from baseball) are effective, it totally messes with their learned behaviour. Benny Howell has become a highly effective cricketer in T20 because he has mastered all these change of pace deliveries.
For baseball, there have been funny experiments where they have got major league batters to try to hit slower pitches and they really struggle, because again all their training / experience doesn't marry with what they are used to. Obviously after a short while they can adjust, but initially it is really hard for them. Its why the knuckle ball pitcher was popular for a while, despite throwing at such slow speeds.
I know many people who voted for Brexit then who would never contemplate voting for Farage to go into Parliament, or any of his ilk.
May as well count how many people voted for him on I'm A Celeb. It wasn't a proper election.
If that is one of the 7 most likely Reform seats then I can't see them getting as many as that.
I think Charles looks fine. He’s 75, not 45.
Just back from the pub in rural Dorset. No mention of the election apart from how Farage 'says it how it is'.
What was the turnout in the 2019 Euros?
And how many of those 30% were “Get Brexit Done” Tories?
But I'll be be keeping calmer and voting Starmer this time around!
I don’t even mean this in a racist way.
She just exuded middle England.
Sunak is the junior consultant from McKinsey who had come to size you up for potential efficiencies.
I think Johnson had more organisational grip.
Still only got them one seat though. The Faragist vote distribution is horrible- not really high enough and definitely not spiky enough.
But they are both very gossipy drama-queens so my assumption is it's just juicy gossip or else it would have leaked more widely by now.
One of the famous signals from the US Marines in the Korean war was: "The enemy are in front of us, behind us and on both sides. They won't get away this time."
Sounds like the Russians had a different view.
Chelsea and Fulham forecast with Survation to be one of only 2 Tory seats left in London, Orpington the other.
https://www.survation.com/mrp-update-first-mrp-since-farages-return/
I suspect Reform vote will be larger in previously Tory seats.
From Clacton to Poole, to Blackpool.
A friend of mine who was an anaesthetist got pancreatic cancer ten years ago
He was popular with the surgeons and got platinum standard treatment, and it did him no good at all.
I accept that it’s less important than it used to be, but compare with the Lib Dems, who are focusing ruthlessly on key seats, and who actually have a pretty weak social media presence.
Wanting net zero immigration
Wanting to slash taxes while increasing spending and therefore bankrupting the country
Thinking we should have made peace with Hitler in 1939
You seem to be planning to vote for them. Good luck with that.