That may be an outlier but it could be that the media attention around the various manifesto launches is now coming out of the system and we return to how we were, roughly, ten days ago?
The longer it goes without a reform/con crossover poll the more Farage will look like a hubristic bellend on the back of that one poll the other day. Looking forward to a journalist asking him about the 4000 polls putting reform behind the Tories and if he still thinks they are the opposition.
Lets wait for the next Yougov poll before calling that.
The longer it goes without a reform/con crossover poll the more Farage will look like a hubristic bellend on the back of that one poll the other day. Looking forward to a journalist asking him about the 4000 polls putting reform behind the Tories and if he still thinks they are the opposition.
Perhaps the voters pulled the handbrake at the thought of him taking over the whole right... all 50 seats of them
Have Baxtered Savanta since nobody else has. Lab 521 LD 51 Con 30 Ref 2 GRN 1 SNP 21 PC 4
Majority of 392.
It's worth assuming such an outcome is possible. Not really worth doing all this polling research unless it is aimed at truth. So, of the 30 surviving Tories only a tiny handful are big cheese names (though EC is not 100% up to date on names and I haven't checked). Roughly they are: Williamson (safe), Tugendhat, Barclay (both marginal). Epoch making. And possible.
The longer it goes without a reform/con crossover poll the more Farage will look like a hubristic bellend on the back of that one poll the other day. Looking forward to a journalist asking him about the 4000 polls putting reform behind the Tories and if he still thinks they are the opposition.
There's a very good reason that Farage looks like a hubristic bellend.
The longer it goes without a reform/con crossover poll the more Farage will look like a hubristic bellend on the back of that one poll the other day. Looking forward to a journalist asking him about the 4000 polls putting reform behind the Tories and if he still thinks they are the opposition.
Lets wait for the next Yougov poll before calling that.
It is possible that Yougov have got Reform all wrong. Modelling a Faragasm hasn't been done before.
The longer it goes without a reform/con crossover poll the more Farage will look like a hubristic bellend on the back of that one poll the other day. Looking forward to a journalist asking him about the 4000 polls putting reform behind the Tories and if he still thinks they are the opposition.
Lets wait for the next Yougov poll before calling that.
It ispossible that Yougov have got Reform all wrong. Modelling a Faragasm hasn't been done before.
It was in 2019.
IIRC YouGov were one of the first pollsters to spot the Brexit Party was going to pummel the Tories in the European elections.
Given the awful week they have had the Survation MPR isn't that bad for the Tories. They remain official opposition ahead of the LDs and are still ahead of Reform on votes as well as seats.
Obviously it is excellent for Labour, giving them an even bigger majority than New Labour got in 1997. Not that good for the SNP though, even 37 seats would be 11 fewer than they have now and almost as bad as the 35 they got in 2017
So a pollster I respect lot has been in touch to diss this MRP saying those Reform gains are as likely as me becoming President of the Max Verstappen fan club.
The longer it goes without a reform/con crossover poll the more Farage will look like a hubristic bellend on the back of that one poll the other day. Looking forward to a journalist asking him about the 4000 polls putting reform behind the Tories and if he still thinks they are the opposition.
Lets wait for the next Yougov poll before calling that.
It ispossible that Yougov have got Reform all wrong. Modelling a Faragasm hasn't been done before.
It was in 2019.
IIRC YouGov were one of the first pollsters to spot the Brexit Party was going to pummel the Tories in the European elections.
But that was, er, Screamingly obviously going to happen. Just because it was fun, giving Theresa May a kicking, a game all Tories could play without consequence.
I mean, for fucks sake, it was a European Union election - after we had voted to Brexit...
That may be an outlier but it could be that the media attention around the various manifesto launches is now coming out of the system and we return to how we were, roughly, ten days ago?
Just like to thank you for your support this morning when I announced my wife and I have decided to vote conservative because we want to maximise the conservative numbers via the dreadful Farage and Reform
These polls do show it makes no difference to the Starmer landslide, but post the GE I want a conservative party to regain its sanity and it will not do that by the seduction of Farage
I must admit that the sports channel is on more here as there is a lot of interesting sport on now and coming up, and it is a distraction to the politics which is all over for the conservatives but hopefully Reform as well
Amazing that in less than 3 weeks Starmer will be in no 10
Swingback being a thing, and Labour starting to look a bit of a shoe in at Westminster, are SNP under priced on seats? I could imagine them doing much better than current polling suggests. Swinney steadying the ship a bit too.
For a few reasons, not least the fact that surely unionist tactical voting must be breaking down big time with the anti-Tory vibes at the moment.
FWIW I don't give Survation MRP equal weight with YouGov. Too many rather unlikely results. However, this result is very consistent with their previous one
You think a 2.200 sample yougov survey beats a 30.000 sample Survation sample in reliability??? 🤔🤔🤔 interesting.
So a pollster I respect lot has been in touch to diss this MRP saying those Reform gains are as likely as me becoming President of the Max Verstappen fan club.
The longer it goes without a reform/con crossover poll the more Farage will look like a hubristic bellend on the back of that one poll the other day. Looking forward to a journalist asking him about the 4000 polls putting reform behind the Tories and if he still thinks they are the opposition.
Lets wait for the next Yougov poll before calling that.
It ispossible that Yougov have got Reform all wrong. Modelling a Faragasm hasn't been done before.
It was in 2019.
IIRC YouGov were one of the first pollsters to spot the Brexit Party was going to pummel the Tories in the European elections.
But that was, er, Screamingly obviously going to happen. Just because it was fun, giving Theresa May a kicking, a game all Tories could play without consequence.
I mean, for fucks sake, it was a European Union election - after we had voted to Brexit...
It was obvious but the scale of it? Less so, I remember getting a lot of stick for saying there was value in the Tories polling less than 10%.
"One thing largely unnoticed in Labour’s manifesto: it will give public bodies a legal duty to reduce inequality (by enacting the socio-economic duty in the 2010 Equality Act for the first time). The socio-economic duty would have posed a significant legal obstacle to austerity (one reason the Conservatives never enacted it)."
Which means they will likely face a huge economic crises before their first term is out (along the lines of having to raise interest rates significantly to shift gilts and shore up the £). The government is already spending more on interest than defence and education combined).
I said on here yesterday that SKS could be a one-term PM, and got pilloried for it.
I must say, I'm looking forward to being hailed as a great prophet if (when) it happens.
I think too labour will have one term because I have seen nothing to indicate from them that things will be different by 2029, in fact I think things will be worse. That also isn't in my view because their policies are much different to the tories....just centrist policies aren't fixing things.
I also don't think labours one term will result in a return to the tories
So a pollster I respect lot has been in touch to diss this MRP saying those Reform gains are as likely as me becoming President of the Max Verstappen fan club.
Like I said. NW Norfolk my fat arse. They'll poll under 15% there
FWIW I don't give Survation MRP equal weight with YouGov. Too many rather unlikely results. However, this result is very consistent with their previous one
You think a 2.200 sample yougov survey beats a 30.000 sample Survation sample in reliability??? 🤔🤔🤔 interesting.
Have to agree with you - SNP and Reform are a buy, Tories a sell.
I wouldn't sell the Tories at 108.
I'm not going to be dabbling in the spreads this time.
But.
Almost every Tory I know won't be voting Tory this time.
I'd take 108 any day. Suspect reality could be a lot worse.
If they aren't voting Tory this time they aren't really Tories are they. Either swing voters if voting Labour or LD or rightwing nationalists or economic libertarians if voting Reform
Its looking about as good for England in the cricket as the Tories in the GE.
Sadly it makes the T20 World cup a bit of a laughing stiock. They need to look very seriuslly at revising the format.
The biggest joke was the England vs Scotland one, there was hole in the cover that resulted in water leaking through onto the wicket. This is a WC, not a Sunday afternoon village 3rds game.
Swingback being a thing, and Labour starting to look a bit of a shoe in at Westminster, are SNP under priced on seats? I could imagine them doing much better than current polling suggests. Swinney steadying the ship a bit too.
For a few reasons, not least the fact that surely unionist tactical voting must be breaking down big time with the anti-Tory vibes at the moment.
Given that Starmer needs a swing comparable to Blairs in 1997 to get a majority of one, this is worrying news for Labour. Polls showing them getting a silliley large majority could result in a result far from it (although I cannot see them being much short of a majority whatever happens).
Have to agree with you - SNP and Reform are a buy, Tories a sell.
I wouldn't sell the Tories at 108.
I'm not going to be dabbling in the spreads this time.
But.
Almost every Tory I know won't be voting Tory this time.
I'd take 108 any day. Suspect reality could be a lot worse.
If they aren't voting Tory this time they aren't really Tories are they? Either swing voters if voting Labour or LD or rightwing nationalists if voting Reform
Swingback being a thing, and Labour starting to look a bit of a shoe in at Westminster, are SNP under priced on seats? I could imagine them doing much better than current polling suggests. Swinney steadying the ship a bit too.
For a few reasons, not least the fact that surely unionist tactical voting must be breaking down big time with the anti-Tory vibes at the moment.
Given that Starmer needs a swing comparable to Blairs in 1997 to get a majority of one, this is worrying news for Labour. Polls showing them getting a silliley large majority could result in a result far from it (although I cannot see them being much short of a majority whatever happens).
Polls also show only about a third of voters expect Labour to get a large majority.
Have to agree with you - SNP and Reform are a buy, Tories a sell.
I wouldn't sell the Tories at 108.
I'm not going to be dabbling in the spreads this time.
But.
Almost every Tory I know won't be voting Tory this time.
I'd take 108 any day. Suspect reality could be a lot worse.
If they aren't voting Tory this time they aren't really Tories are they. Either swing voters if voting Labour or LD or rightwing nationalists if voting Reform
Are my wife and I conservatives then following our decision this morning to vote conservative
Have to agree with you - SNP and Reform are a buy, Tories a sell.
I wouldn't sell the Tories at 108.
I'm not going to be dabbling in the spreads this time.
But.
Almost every Tory I know won't be voting Tory this time.
I'd take 108 any day. Suspect reality could be a lot worse.
If they aren't voting Tory this time they aren't really Tories are they? Either swing voters if voting Labour or LD or rightwing nationalists if voting Reform
Several are Tory members.
Tory enough for you?
Don't bother, he told JohnO who has been a Tory member for nearly 50 years and councillor for decades he wasn't a real Tory either.
Just to be clear, do any, or some of these polls , include data from the day after the Yougov ?
This is a very important consideration.
Of the recent polls, Techne, R+W, YouGov, WeThink and Whitestone were all 12/13 June and Savanta was 12-14 June. So as of now, nothing that could pick up much of a Reform Snowball effect. But YouGov's Lab37 is beginning to look a bit outlyery.
Swingback being a thing, and Labour starting to look a bit of a shoe in at Westminster, are SNP under priced on seats? I could imagine them doing much better than current polling suggests. Swinney steadying the ship a bit too.
For a few reasons, not least the fact that surely unionist tactical voting must be breaking down big time with the anti-Tory vibes at the moment.
Most Scottish seats are Labour v SNP marginals where LD and Tory tactical votes for Labour will be key (or indeed Labour and Tory tactical votes for the LDs in LD v SNP marginals).
The Tories have just 6 Scottish seats where Labour tactical votes for the SNP will be key and indeed 1 of those, Dumfries and Galloway was held by Labour in 1997 and will be targeted by Labour as well as the SNP
Have to agree with you - SNP and Reform are a buy, Tories a sell.
I wouldn't sell the Tories at 108.
I'm not going to be dabbling in the spreads this time.
But.
Almost every Tory I know won't be voting Tory this time.
I'd take 108 any day. Suspect reality could be a lot worse.
If they aren't voting Tory this time they aren't really Tories are they? Either swing voters if voting Labour or LD or rightwing nationalists if voting Reform
Several are Tory members.
Tory enough for you?
I remember (senior) Tory members all but telling me they were voting Brexit in 2019 Euros. Hand sitting seems to be the order of the day this time.
The longer it goes without a reform/con crossover poll the more Farage will look like a hubristic bellend on the back of that one poll the other day. Looking forward to a journalist asking him about the 4000 polls putting reform behind the Tories and if he still thinks they are the opposition.
Reform has underperformed in all recent actual elections compared with their polling. Underperformance may change with Farage, but it's an untested hypothesis.
Sighs of relief from CCHQ that there’s not been huge leaps for REF in these polls.
Was the fieldwork done after the YouGov Crossover was reported?
Partly
Then that is definitely a silver lining for them. Not out of the woods yet, but if they can keep REF below 15% and themselves in the mid-20s they probably stand a chance of keeping 100-150 seats. Appalling, but not ELE.
But of course we simply don’t know which pollster is right at the moment. I suspect Opinium is closer to the actual result than YouGov, but still a ways to go.
So a pollster I respect lot has been in touch to diss this MRP saying those Reform gains are as likely as me becoming President of the Max Verstappen fan club.
Yeah, can't exactly see them winning Exmouth...
And Mid Leics?! It is a two-party seat in an area where Farage has never polled above 16-17% in a GE.
The problem for the Tories is if you are on 30%, your don't let Labour have a mega majority etc can have some effect, every vote can really count. Once you bedrock has totally gone and people see polls with sub 20%, its f##k it, it doesn't matter, time. Plus nothing in the Tory manifesto is going to get Tory inclined voters excited.
Sighs of relief from CCHQ that there’s not been huge leaps for REF in these polls.
Was the fieldwork done after the YouGov Crossover was reported?
Given the vote share in their previous polls, it would have taken a huge rise in Reform to overtake them this time.
The % movement is consistent with Yougov though.
It is very difficult to weight correctly when minor parties abruptly start to perform exceptionally well on a sample of 1,000 to 2,000 , as you don't have previous behaviour to baseline it with.
That may be an outlier but it could be that the media attention around the various manifesto launches is now coming out of the system and we return to how we were, roughly, ten days ago?
On the contrary, I think it is the one so far that would have been most affected by the Labour manifesto launch. That is, the Savanta poll is the first and only poll so far which was in the main conducted (12th-14th June) at a time mainly concurrent with the time of the Labour manifesto launch at 11am on 13th June. 5 other polls were conducted on 12th-13th June but the launch would have been in time only to catch the final polling responses.
The Savanta poll is a bit of a straw in the wind in isolation, but it does nothing to dispel the idea that Labour may have got a bit of a boost from their manifesto launch.
Reform’s aim must be to get 15% and at least one seat: Farage
Farage then stands a chance of doing a reverse-takeover of the rump Tory party post-election, if the Tories end up with ~20-22% and 70-110 seats
I think it’s highly unlikely (but not impossible) they can overtake the Tories in total votes and essentially impossible for them to do it in terms of seats
The other thing that is totally lacking from this GE, this is basically no real surprise scandals so far. It feels like everybody is just phoning it in.
The pillock placing a £100 bet is hardly earth shattering stuff. Obviously Sunak / D-Day, but that' wasn't really a media have found out something that was previously hidden.
So a pollster I respect lot has been in touch to diss this MRP saying those Reform gains are as likely as me becoming President of the Max Verstappen fan club.
Yeah, can't exactly see them winning Exmouth...
That said, remember the reaction to first YouGov MRP in 2017 that said Labour were gaining Canterbury.
Reform’s aim must be to get 15% and at least one seat: Farage
Farage then stands a chance of doing a reverse-takeover of the rump Tory party post-election, if the Tories end up with ~20-22% and 70-110 seats
I think it’s highly unlikely (but not impossible) they can overtake the Tories in total votes and essentially impossible for them to do it in terms of seats
Here's the thing, though: Reform is likely to do much better in the Red Wall than in the South East. The Rump Conservative Party is therefore going to be full of MPs who are more terrified of the Yellow Peril than of losing to Reform.
FWIW I don't give Survation MRP equal weight with YouGov. Too many rather unlikely results. However, this result is very consistent with their previous one
You think a 2.200 sample yougov survey beats a 30.000 sample Survation sample in reliability??? 🤔🤔🤔 interesting.
Have to agree with you - SNP and Reform are a buy, Tories a sell.
I wouldn't sell the Tories at 108.
I'm not going to be dabbling in the spreads this time.
But.
Almost every Tory I know won't be voting Tory this time.
I'd take 108 any day. Suspect reality could be a lot worse.
If they aren't voting Tory this time they aren't really Tories are they. Either swing voters if voting Labour or LD or rightwing nationalists if voting Reform
Are my wife and I conservatives then following our decision this morning to vote conservative
As you are in Wales, true Conservatives would be voting Plaid Cymru.
Reform’s aim must be to get 15% and at least one seat: Farage
Farage then stands a chance of doing a reverse-takeover of the rump Tory party post-election, if the Tories end up with ~20-22% and 70-110 seats
I think it’s highly unlikely (but not impossible) they can overtake the Tories in total votes and essentially impossible for them to do it in terms of seats
Nige and 30p Lee will win their seats. Doubtful of gains elsewhere, though.
I think the Tories would be mad to let them reverse-takeover their party on that basis, but even HYUFD was in a thread the other day saying he'd reluctantly bend the knee if it happens.
Honestly, this is what the Tories deserve, for being lying, disingenuous shits on the subject of immigration. From Call me Dave's utterly bollox 'tens of thousands, not hundreds of thousands' pledge to Sunak focusing on the small boats (10k people a year) rather than legal migration (750k a year net).
Does that mean I want GE 2029 to be a fight between Labour and a barking mad, far right dog-whistling racist party? No.
Do I think this is precisely what the main parties deserve, when they ignore the utterly valid concerns of completely non-racist, reasonable people for the last two decades who have been saying that maybe the current levels of immigration are unsustainable and there's no democratic mandate for them? Absolutely.
Because of the importance of the croosover publicity, I think it's very important for people to try and include whether the current polls include date from thee 14th June and onwards, when the crossover narrative was in the press. So far I'm only clear that the Opinium was. More than a few of these, and I doubt Reform are going to overhaul the Tories this time.
This is a very important moment in the campaign, I think, so it matters. If not they're going to really surge now, I doubt that will come later.
Sighs of relief from CCHQ that there’s not been huge leaps for REF in these polls.
Was the fieldwork done after the YouGov Crossover was reported?
Given the vote share in their previous polls, it would have taken a huge rise in Reform to overtake them this time.
The % movement is consistent with Yougov though.
It is very difficult to weight correctly when minor parties abruptly start to perform exceptionally well on a sample of 1,000 to 2,000 , as you don't have previous behaviour to baseline it with.
What we do know from UKIP and from the Alliance in the 1980s, is that parties start of geographically dispersed, and then their vote gets more efficient over time, as they (a) learn to target resources efficiently, and (b) build up a councillor base that enables them to be "winning here".
The SNP score is particularly disappointing for me and I find it hard to relate to what I am seeing on the ground in Scotland. The SNP are almost invisible because they have no money. We have had 1 leaflet from the SNP and 6 from the Tories (neither Labour nor the Lib Dems are wasting their time in this constituency, I am not even sure Reform are standing). This is in an SNP seat.
Will that make a difference, other than to the recycling bins? Who knows, but it is a long time since the SNP have had so little impact in a major election. I will be gutted if they pick up 37 seats, gutted.
They wont be getting remotely near 37 seats. I'm in a SNP/Tory marginal. Several things ftom the Blues through the letterbox. One from Labour. Zippo from SNP. They must be completely skint.
Reform’s aim must be to get 15% and at least one seat: Farage
Farage then stands a chance of doing a reverse-takeover of the rump Tory party post-election, if the Tories end up with ~20-22% and 70-110 seats
I think it’s highly unlikely (but not impossible) they can overtake the Tories in total votes and essentially impossible for them to do it in terms of seats
I think Farage is hoping for more than one. His ideal is a handful, and level or better than Tories in %.
If he got 30 or 40 he would have all sorts of problems with inexperienced politicians who didn't actually want to win the seat, which would jeopardise the long game he is playing.
The next inspection is at 21:00 BST. I reckon that's the crunch point, mainly because of the mopping-up time. If there's nothing positive by then, I reckon it's toast.
Reform’s aim must be to get 15% and at least one seat: Farage
Farage then stands a chance of doing a reverse-takeover of the rump Tory party post-election, if the Tories end up with ~20-22% and 70-110 seats
I think it’s highly unlikely (but not impossible) they can overtake the Tories in total votes and essentially impossible for them to do it in terms of seats
I think Farage is hoping for more than one. His ideal is a handful, and level or better than Tories in %.
If he got 30 or 40 he would have all sorts of problems with inexperienced politicians who didn't actually want to win the seat, which would jeopardise the long game he is playing.
Given the amount he smokes and drinks, I would advise him to play a shorter game.
Reform’s aim must be to get 15% and at least one seat: Farage
Farage then stands a chance of doing a reverse-takeover of the rump Tory party post-election, if the Tories end up with ~20-22% and 70-110 seats
I think it’s highly unlikely (but not impossible) they can overtake the Tories in total votes and essentially impossible for them to do it in terms of seats
Here's the thing, though: Reform is likely to do much better in the Red Wall than in the South East. The Rump Conservative Party is therefore going to be full of MPs who are more terrified of the Yellow Peril than of losing to Reform.
But Farage might be far and away the most inspiring candidate for leader if he is willing to defect/merge
That’s the ting. Farage has the oomph and he appeals to the young. He is the one chance of the Tories storming back to power with an entirely new agenda. Proper right wing policies
If they elect some wet fool like tugendhat it means the Tories are accepting 10-15 years in opposition
Have Baxtered Savanta since nobody else has. Lab 521 LD 51 Con 30 Ref 2 GRN 1 SNP 21 PC 4
Majority of 392.
It's worth assuming such an outcome is possible. Not really worth doing all this polling research unless it is aimed at truth. So, of the 30 surviving Tories only a tiny handful are big cheese names (though EC is not 100% up to date on names and I haven't checked). Roughly they are: Williamson (safe), Tugendhat, Barclay (both marginal). Epoch making. And possible.
I find that outcome very hard to believe even though I would like to believe it. But if it is possible, we must have reached the point where the Lib Dems should be encouraging tactical voting for Labour in 500 seats, in order that they can become the official opposition in parliament.
Reform’s aim must be to get 15% and at least one seat: Farage
Farage then stands a chance of doing a reverse-takeover of the rump Tory party post-election, if the Tories end up with ~20-22% and 70-110 seats
I think it’s highly unlikely (but not impossible) they can overtake the Tories in total votes and essentially impossible for them to do it in terms of seats
Here's the thing, though: Reform is likely to do much better in the Red Wall than in the South East. The Rump Conservative Party is therefore going to be full of MPs who are more terrified of the Yellow Peril than of losing to Reform.
We need two non-Labour parties which can be personified by the figures of Cameron and Farage.
One would be the continuity coalition and the other would represent the revolt against it.
They wouldn't compete directly agaisnt each other in many places, but both would be a danger to Labour and could eventually reduce Labour to a rump.
It would have included UK 1931, Canada 1993, Spain 1992, ah the classics.
It would also be packed more full of Pyramids of Mars references than a squirrel is of nuts. But I don't know if I can get it done in time and I think the Conservative PBers are hurting enough without me kicking them when they are down.
Because of the importance of the croosover publicity, I think it's very important for people to try and include whether the current polls include date from thee 14th June and onwards, when the crossover narrative was included in the press. So far I'm only clear that the Opinium was.
This is a very important moment in the campaign, I think, so it matters. If not they're going to really surge now, I doubt that will come later.
Yes. Essentially if we see a few more crossovers by say, Wednesday, and from REFUK’s side that would ideally include a non YouGov pollster (R&W?) then that potentially allows them to surge just as the postal votes are going out.
If we’re still seeing them in low teens with some pollsters and a slight fallback with YouGov, say, then I think they’ll finish behind the Tories overall.
Reform’s aim must be to get 15% and at least one seat: Farage
Farage then stands a chance of doing a reverse-takeover of the rump Tory party post-election, if the Tories end up with ~20-22% and 70-110 seats
I think it’s highly unlikely (but not impossible) they can overtake the Tories in total votes and essentially impossible for them to do it in terms of seats
Here's the thing, though: Reform is likely to do much better in the Red Wall than in the South East. The Rump Conservative Party is therefore going to be full of MPs who are more terrified of the Yellow Peril than of losing to Reform.
We need two non-Labour parties which can be personified by the figures of Cameron and Farage.
One would be the continuity coalition and the other would represent the revolt against it.
They wouldn't compete directly agaisnt each other in many places, but both would be a danger to Labour and could eventually reduce Labour to a rump.
Who needs that? Not the 40% of voters who are SBK fans please explain.
Reform’s aim must be to get 15% and at least one seat: Farage
Farage then stands a chance of doing a reverse-takeover of the rump Tory party post-election, if the Tories end up with ~20-22% and 70-110 seats
I think it’s highly unlikely (but not impossible) they can overtake the Tories in total votes and essentially impossible for them to do it in terms of seats
Nige and 30p Lee will win their seats. Doubtful of gains elsewhere, though.
I think the Tories would be mad to let them reverse-takeover their party on that basis, but even HYUFD was in a thread the other day saying he'd reluctantly bend the knee if it happens.
Honestly, this is what the Tories deserve, for being lying, disingenuous shits on the subject of immigration. From Call me Dave's utterly bollox 'tens of thousands, not hundreds of thousands' pledge to Sunak focusing on the small boats (10k people a year) rather than legal migration (750k a year net).
Does that mean I want GE 2029 to be a fight between Labour and a barking mad, far right dog-whistling racist party? No.
Do I think this is precisely what the main parties deserve, when they ignore the utterly valid concerns of completely non-racist, reasonable people for the last two decades who have been saying that maybe the current levels of immigration are unsustainable and there's no democratic mandate for them? Absolutely.
This stuff about Farage taking over the Tories is fanciful. Next May hundreds of Tory councillors will be elected. How many Reform cllrs? They have no activists, no organisation, and not much in the way of a cause. Farage will have as much status in the House of Commons as George Galloway - a media-savvy gadfly but little more than that.
Comments
That may be an outlier but it could be that the media attention around the various manifesto launches is now coming out of the system and we return to how we were, roughly, ten days ago?
(Maybe, but he does keep photographing them outside the Rifle Volunteer.)
https://x.com/SancastleAir/status/1801960252461490348
Lab 40 (-2)
Con 23 (-1)
Ref 14 (+2 )
LD 12 (+2)
Green 7(=)
SNP 2 (=)
12 - 14 Jun
Get your bags packed lads, you are going home early.
Much appreciated.
IIRC YouGov were one of the first pollsters to spot the Brexit Party was going to pummel the Tories in the European elections.
Obviously it is excellent for Labour, giving them an even bigger majority than New Labour got in 1997. Not that good for the SNP though, even 37 seats would be 11 fewer than they have now and almost as bad as the 35 they got in 2017
I mean, for fucks sake, it was a European Union election - after we had voted to Brexit...
Just like to thank you for your support this morning when I announced my wife and I have decided to vote conservative because we want to maximise the conservative numbers via the dreadful Farage and Reform
These polls do show it makes no difference to the Starmer landslide, but post the GE I want a conservative party to regain its sanity and it will not do that by the seduction of Farage
I must admit that the sports channel is on more here as there is a lot of interesting sport on now and coming up, and it is a distraction to the politics which is all over for the conservatives but hopefully Reform as well
Amazing that in less than 3 weeks Starmer will be in no 10
Lab 441
Con 104
LD 54
Majority 232.
Massive difference between 21 and 23 percent for the future of the Tory Party.
Swingback being a thing, and Labour starting to look a bit of a shoe in at Westminster, are SNP under priced on seats? I could imagine them doing much better than current polling suggests. Swinney steadying the ship a bit too.
For a few reasons, not least the fact that surely unionist tactical voting must be breaking down big time with the anti-Tory vibes at the moment.
Gives Tories 104 to 441 seats for Labour, 54 for the LDs, 3 for Reform and 21 SNP
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=23&LAB=40&LIB=12&Reform=14&Green=7&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=15.2&SCOTLAB=36.7&SCOTLIB=6.9&SCOTReform=3.2&SCOTGreen=2.5&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=33.1&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase
This is a very important consideration.
I also don't think labours one term will result in a return to the tories
Survations model is ultra harsh on their vote efficiency
Tory enough for you?
https://www.survation.com/mrp-update-first-mrp-since-farages-return/
Not good for Nigel and the Farangists.
xx
The Tories have just 6 Scottish seats where Labour tactical votes for the SNP will be key and indeed 1 of those, Dumfries and Galloway was held by Labour in 1997 and will be targeted by Labour as well as the SNP
Was the fieldwork done after the YouGov Crossover was reported?
But of course we simply don’t know which pollster is right at the moment. I suspect Opinium is closer to the actual result than YouGov, but still a ways to go.
The % movement is consistent with Yougov though.
It is very difficult to weight correctly when minor parties abruptly start to perform exceptionally well on a sample of 1,000 to 2,000 , as you don't have previous behaviour to baseline it with.
The Savanta poll is a bit of a straw in the wind in isolation, but it does nothing to dispel the idea that Labour may have got a bit of a boost from their manifesto launch.
Farage then stands a chance of doing a reverse-takeover of the rump Tory party post-election, if the Tories end up with ~20-22% and 70-110 seats
I think it’s highly unlikely (but not impossible) they can overtake the Tories in total votes and essentially impossible for them to do it in terms of seats
The pillock placing a £100 bet is hardly earth shattering stuff. Obviously Sunak / D-Day, but that' wasn't really a media have found out something that was previously hidden.
📊 Labour lead at 17pts
Westminster voting intention
LAB: 40% (-2)
CON: 23% (-1)
REF: 14% (+2)
LDEM: 12% (+2)
GRN: 7% (-)
https://x.com/britainelects/status/1802053514379546632?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
LOL!
The direction of travel since in their polls suggests their next release will show a worse picture for the Tories.
I think the Tories would be mad to let them reverse-takeover their party on that basis, but even HYUFD was in a thread the other day saying he'd reluctantly bend the knee if it happens.
Honestly, this is what the Tories deserve, for being lying, disingenuous shits on the subject of immigration. From Call me Dave's utterly bollox 'tens of thousands, not hundreds of thousands' pledge to Sunak focusing on the small boats (10k people a year) rather than legal migration (750k a year net).
Does that mean I want GE 2029 to be a fight between Labour and a barking mad, far right dog-whistling racist party? No.
Do I think this is precisely what the main parties deserve, when they ignore the utterly valid concerns of completely non-racist, reasonable people for the last two decades who have been saying that maybe the current levels of immigration are unsustainable and there's no democratic mandate for them? Absolutely.
This is a very important moment in the campaign, I think, so it matters. If not they're going to really surge now, I doubt that will come later.
220 seats on that scenario??
If he got 30 or 40 he would have all sorts of problems with inexperienced politicians who didn't actually want to win the seat, which would jeopardise the long game he is playing.
There have been many elections (1983, 2010, even 2019) where it was thought the mold might be broken... only for normality to return.
That’s the ting. Farage has the oomph and he appeals to the young. He is the one chance of the Tories storming back to power with an entirely new agenda. Proper right wing policies
If they elect some wet fool like tugendhat it means the Tories are accepting 10-15 years in opposition
One would be the continuity coalition and the other would represent the revolt against it.
They wouldn't compete directly agaisnt each other in many places, but both would be a danger to Labour and could eventually reduce Labour to a rump.
I was thinking of tossing off an article entitled "The Legend Of Rishi's Sunday", which starts with PM Sunak waking up to a welter of bad polling, then segues into previous episodes/elections where a party has been destroyed and the God of Party Death has trod, leaving nothing but dust and darkness and finding that good.
It would have included UK 1931, Canada 1993, Spain 1992, ah the classics.
It would also be packed more full of Pyramids of Mars references than a squirrel is of nuts. But I don't know if I can get it done in time and I think the Conservative PBers are hurting enough without me kicking them when they are down.
If we’re still seeing them in low teens with some pollsters and a slight fallback with YouGov, say, then I think they’ll finish behind the Tories overall.
But things very febrile at the moment.
- RefUK is 12% vote share = 7 seats (1% = 0.6 seats)
- Conservative is 24% vote share = 72 seats (1% = 3 seats)
- Lib Dem is 11% vote share = 56 seats (1% = 5.1 seats)
- SNP is 4% vote share = 37 seats (1% = 9.25 seats)
- Labour is 40% vote share = 456 seats (1% = 11.4 seats)
Goal!
Edit: grr. Bad timing