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Survation is great for Lab and the SNP but awful for the Tories – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,827
edited June 15 in General
imageSurvation is great for Lab and the SNP but awful for the Tories – politicalbetting.com

Full seat extrapolation pic.twitter.com/yVhnVjtsl9

Read the full story here

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  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 78,069
    Its looking about as good for England in the cricket as the Tories in the GE.
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    FarooqFarooq Posts: 12,184
    It feels like the slight fluctuations in Labour's polling numbers matter little in England, but hugely in Scotland. Those cheering for a downtick in Labour's fortunes are (probably unwittingly) cheering the SNP on to a majority of Scottish seats.

    FWIW I think the SNP will not achieve that seat total, but it remains possible.
  • Options
    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 6,637
    Anyone have the dates for the MRP polling? I’m sure they’re in there somewhere but I can’t see them.

    Thanks x
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 78,069
    edited June 15
    "One thing largely unnoticed in Labour’s manifesto: it will give public bodies a legal duty to reduce inequality (by enacting the socio-economic duty in the 2010 Equality Act for the first time). The socio-economic duty would have posed a significant legal obstacle to austerity (one reason the Conservatives never enacted it)."

    https://x.com/georgeeaton/status/1801968518243439000
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,425
    'Only' a 16 point lead - one assumes therefore an equally high number of very narrow Labour wins here, the lead is 2 points less than the YouGov MRP giving 140 seats to the Tories........
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,018
    wooliedyed said:

    'Only' a 16 point lead - one assumes therefore an equally high number of very narrow Labour wins here, the lead is 2 points less than the YouGov MRP giving 140 seats to the Tories........

    I suspect the Tory vote is hugely inefficient. Losing marginals but piling up votes in the few remaining strongholds.
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,425
    Heathener said:

    Anyone have the dates for the MRP polling? I’m sure they’re in there somewhere but I can’t see them.

    Thanks x

    31 May to 13 June (I think)
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,948
    Seats Reform win according to the MRP

    Ashfield

    Clacton

    Exmouth & Exeter East

    Great Yarmouth

    Mid Leicestershire

    North West Norfolk

    South Suffolk
  • Options
    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,981
    edited June 15
    ThanksTSE.

    Have to agree with you - SNP and Reform are a buy, Tories a sell.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,643
    edited June 15
    Still no idea where those 7 Reform seats are.
    I am looking at Lincolnshire, Essex, and East Anglia.
    Not the Red Wall.

    Edit. See it's there. And I'm pretty much right.
  • Options
    ArtistArtist Posts: 1,887
    7 Reform seats really? They're nowhere near winning anywhere outside Clacton, Boston and Ashfield.
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 19,607
    edited June 15
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    "One thing largely unnoticed in Labour’s manifesto: it will give public bodies a legal duty to reduce inequality (by enacting the socio-economic duty in the 2010 Equality Act for the first time). The socio-economic duty would have posed a significant legal obstacle to austerity (one reason the Conservatives never enacted it)."

    https://x.com/georgeeaton/status/1801968518243439000

    Without me looking it up (I will later if necessary), can anyone concisely explain how this different from the Public Sector Equality Duty? PSED is proactive.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,643
    Farooq said:

    It feels like the slight fluctuations in Labour's polling numbers matter little in England, but hugely in Scotland. Those cheering for a downtick in Labour's fortunes are (probably unwittingly) cheering the SNP on to a majority of Scottish seats.

    FWIW I think the SNP will not achieve that seat total, but it remains possible.

    Then again. If the Tory government seems certain to be ousted, then there's less incentive for folk to desert the SNP.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 21,472
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Seats Reform win according to the MRP

    Ashfield

    Clacton

    Exmouth & Exeter East

    Great Yarmouth

    Mid Leicestershire

    North West Norfolk

    South Suffolk

    @Foxy is in Mid Leicestershire. Will he have to vote Tory to keep Reform out??
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,679
    So much for Reform/Conservative cross-over.....
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,425
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Seats Reform win according to the MRP

    Ashfield

    Clacton

    Exmouth & Exeter East

    Great Yarmouth

    Mid Leicestershire

    North West Norfolk

    South Suffolk

    NW Norfolk. Lmao. No chance.
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,425
    Mortimer said:

    wooliedyed said:

    'Only' a 16 point lead - one assumes therefore an equally high number of very narrow Labour wins here, the lead is 2 points less than the YouGov MRP giving 140 seats to the Tories........

    I suspect the Tory vote is hugely inefficient. Losing marginals but piling up votes in the few remaining strongholds.
    That assumption is being modelled here, yes, definitely
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 21,472
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Its looking about as good for England in the cricket as the Tories in the GE.

    Apparently we can get on the pitch as late as 2146 BST - so plenty of time. The BBC forecaster chap reckons it should clear up later.
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,097
    MarqueeMark said:

    So much for Reform/Conservative cross-over.....

    How’s is going MM? Still going strong. Here in Sussex, it seems that reports of the death of the Conservative Party were greatly exaggerated.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 78,069
    Anabobazina said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Its looking about as good for England in the cricket as the Tories in the GE.

    Apparently we can get on the pitch as late as 2146 BST - so plenty of time. The BBC forecaster chap reckons it should clear up later.
    5 over game a side is a proper lottery.
  • Options
    MisterBedfordshireMisterBedfordshire Posts: 474
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    "One thing largely unnoticed in Labour’s manifesto: it will give public bodies a legal duty to reduce inequality (by enacting the socio-economic duty in the 2010 Equality Act for the first time). The socio-economic duty would have posed a significant legal obstacle to austerity (one reason the Conservatives never enacted it)."

    https://x.com/georgeeaton/status/1801968518243439000

    Which means they will likely face a huge economic crises before their first term is out (along the lines of having to raise interest rates significantly to shift gilts and shore up the £). The government is already spending more on interest than defence and education combined).
  • Options
    ChrisChris Posts: 11,452
    Has this Savanta poll been posted?
    https://x.com/Savanta_UK/status/1802030811421564970
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 78,069
    MisterBedfordshire said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    "One thing largely unnoticed in Labour’s manifesto: it will give public bodies a legal duty to reduce inequality (by enacting the socio-economic duty in the 2010 Equality Act for the first time). The socio-economic duty would have posed a significant legal obstacle to austerity (one reason the Conservatives never enacted it)."

    https://x.com/georgeeaton/status/1801968518243439000

    Which means they will likely face a huge economic crises before their first term is out (along the lines of having to raise interest rates significantly to shift gilts and shore up the £). The government is already spending more on interest than defence and education combined).
    The worry is you also open the flood gates to the Birmingham style legal challenges (which is what bust it).
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,643
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Seats Reform win according to the MRP

    Ashfield

    Clacton

    Exmouth & Exeter East

    Great Yarmouth

    Mid Leicestershire

    North West Norfolk

    South Suffolk

    Wot no Boston?
    And isn't the Exmouth one a function of the Claire (?) Wright vote?
    She isn't standing. And her voters certainly aren't Faragists.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,948
    🚨NEW Westminster Voting Intention for Sunday
    @Telegraph


    📈25pt Labour lead

    📉Lowest Con vote share since May 2019

    🌹Lab 46 (+2)
    🌳Con 21 (-4)
    ➡️Reform 13 (+3)
    🔶LD 11 (+2)
    🌍Green 5 (+1)
    🎗️SNP 2 (-1)
    ⬜️Other 3 (-1)

    2,045 UK adults, 12-14 June

    (chg from 7-9 June)

    https://x.com/Savanta_UK/status/1802030811421564970
  • Options
    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 15,378
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Its looking about as good for England in the cricket as the Tories in the GE.

    Rishi would be very happy if the election could be rained off and declared a draw
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 21,472
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Anabobazina said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Its looking about as good for England in the cricket as the Tories in the GE.

    Apparently we can get on the pitch as late as 2146 BST - so plenty of time. The BBC forecaster chap reckons it should clear up later.
    5 over game a side is a proper lottery.
    True but I’d back us in that scenario. TBH I’d take that now if you offered me if. Seriously worried we are going to left rained out here, and let the Scots through in the bargain. When did we last best them in any major sport? Seems like they have the wood over us.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 78,069
    edited June 15
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    🚨NEW Westminster Voting Intention for Sunday
    @Telegraph


    📈25pt Labour lead

    📉Lowest Con vote share since May 2019

    🌹Lab 46 (+2)
    🌳Con 21 (-4)
    ➡️Reform 13 (+3)
    🔶LD 11 (+2)
    🌍Green 5 (+1)
    🎗️SNP 2 (-1)
    ⬜️Other 3 (-1)

    2,045 UK adults, 12-14 June

    (chg from 7-9 June)

    https://x.com/Savanta_UK/status/1802030811421564970

    By the point normally we start to see polling coming together, instead we have crazy difference in numbers.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 21,472
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    🚨NEW Westminster Voting Intention for Sunday
    @Telegraph


    📈25pt Labour lead

    📉Lowest Con vote share since May 2019

    🌹Lab 46 (+2)
    🌳Con 21 (-4)
    ➡️Reform 13 (+3)
    🔶LD 11 (+2)
    🌍Green 5 (+1)
    🎗️SNP 2 (-1)
    ⬜️Other 3 (-1)

    2,045 UK adults, 12-14 June

    (chg from 7-9 June)

    https://x.com/Savanta_UK/status/1802030811421564970

    Possibly a manifesto bounce for Labour there, but MOE.
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 12,184
    dixiedean said:

    Farooq said:

    It feels like the slight fluctuations in Labour's polling numbers matter little in England, but hugely in Scotland. Those cheering for a downtick in Labour's fortunes are (probably unwittingly) cheering the SNP on to a majority of Scottish seats.

    FWIW I think the SNP will not achieve that seat total, but it remains possible.

    Then again. If the Tory government seems certain to be ousted, then there's less incentive for folk to desert the SNP.
    I don't think people are deserting SNP to get rid of the Tories. That wouldn't make any sense in SNP-held seats.
    The SNP's problems are mostly self-inflicted. Any downtick/crash in votes will be their own doing, not tactical.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,948
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    ThanksTSE.

    Have to agree with you - SNP and Reform are a buy, Tories a sell.

    It's time when we're going to need balls of steel.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,643
    Stuartinromford said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Its looking about as good for England in the cricket as the Tories in the GE.

    Rishi would be very happy if the election could be rained off and declared a draw
    Well. His campaign started well on that front.
  • Options
    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,981
    Btw, TSE, that Survation poll puts SED within 16 seats of being LOTO, so that 7/2 we were talking about earlier looks even better now.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 57,303
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    🚨NEW Westminster Voting Intention for Sunday
    @Telegraph


    📈25pt Labour lead

    📉Lowest Con vote share since May 2019

    🌹Lab 46 (+2)
    🌳Con 21 (-4)
    ➡️Reform 13 (+3)
    🔶LD 11 (+2)
    🌍Green 5 (+1)
    🎗️SNP 2 (-1)
    ⬜️Other 3 (-1)

    2,045 UK adults, 12-14 June

    (chg from 7-9 June)

    https://x.com/Savanta_UK/status/1802030811421564970

    So it's an MRP modelled on that?

    Hmm. Interesting.
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 12,184
    MarqueeMark said:

    So much for Reform/Conservative cross-over.....

    Yes, but they remain in with a decent shout of nearly matching Nick Clegg's 8 seats in 2015. Tremble, establishment goons, tremble.
  • Options
    RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,203
    dixiedean said:

    Farooq said:

    It feels like the slight fluctuations in Labour's polling numbers matter little in England, but hugely in Scotland. Those cheering for a downtick in Labour's fortunes are (probably unwittingly) cheering the SNP on to a majority of Scottish seats.

    FWIW I think the SNP will not achieve that seat total, but it remains possible.

    Then again. If the Tory government seems certain to be ousted, then there's less incentive for folk to desert the SNP.
    There was a council by-election in West Dunbartonshire a couple of days ago (Clydebank Central), where SLAB got 49.6% of the vote compared to the SNP's 38.9%. Two years previously the SNP had won said seat by a double digit margin.
    That MRP projection for the SNP is bullshit.
  • Options
    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,478
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    🚨NEW Westminster Voting Intention for Sunday
    @Telegraph


    📈25pt Labour lead

    📉Lowest Con vote share since May 2019

    🌹Lab 46 (+2)
    🌳Con 21 (-4)
    ➡️Reform 13 (+3)
    🔶LD 11 (+2)
    🌍Green 5 (+1)
    🎗️SNP 2 (-1)
    ⬜️Other 3 (-1)

    2,045 UK adults, 12-14 June

    (chg from 7-9 June)

    https://x.com/Savanta_UK/status/1802030811421564970

    Reform still 8 points behind the Tories . I’m surprised Labour have gone up after other recent polls.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 57,303
    SNP seem overcooked in this.

    Sample size?
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,686
    MisterBedfordshire said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    "One thing largely unnoticed in Labour’s manifesto: it will give public bodies a legal duty to reduce inequality (by enacting the socio-economic duty in the 2010 Equality Act for the first time). The socio-economic duty would have posed a significant legal obstacle to austerity (one reason the Conservatives never enacted it)."

    https://x.com/georgeeaton/status/1801968518243439000

    Which means they will likely face a huge economic crises before their first term is out (along the lines of having to raise interest rates significantly to shift gilts and shore up the £). The government is already spending more on interest than defence and education combined).
    The worst thing won’t be councils going bust.

    It would be trying to hand legislation to the courts - something the courts have resisted.

    Politicians will become very interested in controlling who is on the Supreme Court.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 52,080
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Its looking about as good for England in the cricket as the Tories in the GE.

    On the positive side this gives Scotland automatic qualification for the next T20 World Cup.
  • Options
    WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,716
    edited June 15
    Either Yougov are very off the mark, or very right.

    These are giving a picture shrivelled of a Tory party, not an apocalypse.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,191
    Gosh!
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,411
    nico679 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    🚨NEW Westminster Voting Intention for Sunday
    @Telegraph


    📈25pt Labour lead

    📉Lowest Con vote share since May 2019

    🌹Lab 46 (+2)
    🌳Con 21 (-4)
    ➡️Reform 13 (+3)
    🔶LD 11 (+2)
    🌍Green 5 (+1)
    🎗️SNP 2 (-1)
    ⬜️Other 3 (-1)

    2,045 UK adults, 12-14 June

    (chg from 7-9 June)

    https://x.com/Savanta_UK/status/1802030811421564970

    Reform still 8 points behind the Tories . I’m surprised Labour have gone up after other recent polls.
    It’s an obvious outlier.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 57,303
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    ThanksTSE.

    Have to agree with you - SNP and Reform are a buy, Tories a sell.

    I wouldn't sell the Tories at 108.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,784
    MisterBedfordshire said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    "One thing largely unnoticed in Labour’s manifesto: it will give public bodies a legal duty to reduce inequality (by enacting the socio-economic duty in the 2010 Equality Act for the first time). The socio-economic duty would have posed a significant legal obstacle to austerity (one reason the Conservatives never enacted it)."

    https://x.com/georgeeaton/status/1801968518243439000

    Which means they will likely face a huge economic crises before their first term is out (along the lines of having to raise interest rates significantly to shift gilts and shore up the £). The government is already spending more on interest than defence and education combined).
    Really?

    You think that provision is going to cause "a huge economic crises"?

    I think it's a stupid idea to have public sector bodies focused on anything other than value for money. But the idea that this - rather than say, the inability of the UK to pay its way in the world - is going to cause a huge economic "crises" it's patently absurd.
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,425
    nico679 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    🚨NEW Westminster Voting Intention for Sunday
    @Telegraph


    📈25pt Labour lead

    📉Lowest Con vote share since May 2019

    🌹Lab 46 (+2)
    🌳Con 21 (-4)
    ➡️Reform 13 (+3)
    🔶LD 11 (+2)
    🌍Green 5 (+1)
    🎗️SNP 2 (-1)
    ⬜️Other 3 (-1)

    2,045 UK adults, 12-14 June

    (chg from 7-9 June)

    https://x.com/Savanta_UK/status/1802030811421564970

    Reform still 8 points behind the Tories . I’m surprised Labour have gone up after other recent polls.
    Soon see if its a trend or noise I guess, but it's a big score compared to others for sure. Tories in the mud in this one, savanta have swung all the way from a 14 point to 25 point lead in 10 days.........
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,643
    edited June 15
    Listening to R5L news. Four stories.
    King and Kate's appearance at TTC.
    Followed by Kevin Campbell.
    Then the runaway cow.
    Finally the E coli outbreak.

    Followed by an advert which began "You don't need us to tell you there's a General Election coming."
    Apparently we don't.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,784
    Casino_Royale said:

    Peter_the_Punter said:

    ThanksTSE.

    Have to agree with you - SNP and Reform are a buy, Tories a sell.

    I wouldn't sell the Tories at 108.
    Me neither.

    I might buy Reform because of asymmetrical risk reward, but that's about it.
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,018
    edited June 15
    Casino_Royale said:

    Peter_the_Punter said:

    ThanksTSE.

    Have to agree with you - SNP and Reform are a buy, Tories a sell.

    I wouldn't sell the Tories at 108.
    I'm not going to be dabbling in the spreads this time.

    But.

    Almost every Tory I know won't be voting Tory this time.

    I'd take 108 any day. Suspect reality could be a lot worse.
  • Options
    MisterBedfordshireMisterBedfordshire Posts: 474
    nico679 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    🚨NEW Westminster Voting Intention for Sunday
    @Telegraph


    📈25pt Labour lead

    📉Lowest Con vote share since May 2019

    🌹Lab 46 (+2)
    🌳Con 21 (-4)
    ➡️Reform 13 (+3)
    🔶LD 11 (+2)
    🌍Green 5 (+1)
    🎗️SNP 2 (-1)
    ⬜️Other 3 (-1)

    2,045 UK adults, 12-14 June

    (chg from 7-9 June)

    https://x.com/Savanta_UK/status/1802030811421564970

    Reform still 8 points behind the Tories . I’m surprised Labour have gone up after other recent polls.
    Are they one of the pollsters who don't prompt for Reform unless someone says "other"?
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,411
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    MisterBedfordshire said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    "One thing largely unnoticed in Labour’s manifesto: it will give public bodies a legal duty to reduce inequality (by enacting the socio-economic duty in the 2010 Equality Act for the first time). The socio-economic duty would have posed a significant legal obstacle to austerity (one reason the Conservatives never enacted it)."

    https://x.com/georgeeaton/status/1801968518243439000

    Which means they will likely face a huge economic crises before their first term is out (along the lines of having to raise interest rates significantly to shift gilts and shore up the £). The government is already spending more on interest than defence and education combined).
    The worry is you also open the flood gates to the Birmingham style legal challenges (which is what bust it).
    Yes, it’s a terrible idea, and it would likely sink Labour. That’s a ticking timebomb. People may tolerate jacking up taxes to preserve services. They won’t tolerate local authorities jacking up taxes to reduce inequality.
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 16,127
    Mortimer said:

    FF43 said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    There seems to be a bit of an air of f##k business / rich people creeping in. Haven't we already had enough of that over the past 5 years?

    Tsk. Tax the rich, not fuck the rich. Maximising tax should be the aim. Better for rich people to pay than poor people and there are big bills to cover.

    If some people go into tax exile you have probably set the rates correctly for maximum revenue. If everyone does, you need to think again.
    Perhaps we should ask why some in our wealthy country are so reliant upon the money of others?
    It's a good question. Largely they aren't. It is surprisingly difficult to get data on all tax versus all benefit across the income groups. This data from ten years ago probably hasn't changed much in the meantime. The richest 10% do pay a bit more than their share but not vastly more.



    https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/14853/economics/income-inequality-by-income-decile/

  • Options
    CleitophonCleitophon Posts: 410
    Sean_F said:

    nico679 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    🚨NEW Westminster Voting Intention for Sunday
    @Telegraph


    📈25pt Labour lead

    📉Lowest Con vote share since May 2019

    🌹Lab 46 (+2)
    🌳Con 21 (-4)
    ➡️Reform 13 (+3)
    🔶LD 11 (+2)
    🌍Green 5 (+1)
    🎗️SNP 2 (-1)
    ⬜️Other 3 (-1)

    2,045 UK adults, 12-14 June

    (chg from 7-9 June)

    https://x.com/Savanta_UK/status/1802030811421564970

    Reform still 8 points behind the Tories . I’m surprised Labour have gone up after other recent polls.
    It’s an obvious outlier.
    Surely the 1% difference in yougov was the outlier
  • Options
    MisterBedfordshireMisterBedfordshire Posts: 474
    Sean_F said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    MisterBedfordshire said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    "One thing largely unnoticed in Labour’s manifesto: it will give public bodies a legal duty to reduce inequality (by enacting the socio-economic duty in the 2010 Equality Act for the first time). The socio-economic duty would have posed a significant legal obstacle to austerity (one reason the Conservatives never enacted it)."

    https://x.com/georgeeaton/status/1801968518243439000

    Which means they will likely face a huge economic crises before their first term is out (along the lines of having to raise interest rates significantly to shift gilts and shore up the £). The government is already spending more on interest than defence and education combined).
    The worry is you also open the flood gates to the Birmingham style legal challenges (which is what bust it).
    Yes, it’s a terrible idea, and it would likely sink Labour. That’s a ticking timebomb. People may tolerate jacking up taxes to preserve services. They won’t tolerate local authorities jacking up taxes to reduce inequality.
    Absolute Catnip to Farage
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,686
    rcs1000 said:

    MisterBedfordshire said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    "One thing largely unnoticed in Labour’s manifesto: it will give public bodies a legal duty to reduce inequality (by enacting the socio-economic duty in the 2010 Equality Act for the first time). The socio-economic duty would have posed a significant legal obstacle to austerity (one reason the Conservatives never enacted it)."

    https://x.com/georgeeaton/status/1801968518243439000

    Which means they will likely face a huge economic crises before their first term is out (along the lines of having to raise interest rates significantly to shift gilts and shore up the £). The government is already spending more on interest than defence and education combined).
    Really?

    You think that provision is going to cause "a huge economic crises"?

    I think it's a stupid idea to have public sector bodies focused on anything other than value for money. But the idea that this - rather than say, the inability of the UK to pay its way in the world - is going to cause a huge economic "crises" it's patently absurd.
    The question is - how many Birminghams would it create?
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 57,303
    Sean_F said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    MisterBedfordshire said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    "One thing largely unnoticed in Labour’s manifesto: it will give public bodies a legal duty to reduce inequality (by enacting the socio-economic duty in the 2010 Equality Act for the first time). The socio-economic duty would have posed a significant legal obstacle to austerity (one reason the Conservatives never enacted it)."

    https://x.com/georgeeaton/status/1801968518243439000

    Which means they will likely face a huge economic crises before their first term is out (along the lines of having to raise interest rates significantly to shift gilts and shore up the £). The government is already spending more on interest than defence and education combined).
    The worry is you also open the flood gates to the Birmingham style legal challenges (which is what bust it).
    Yes, it’s a terrible idea, and it would likely sink Labour. That’s a ticking timebomb. People may tolerate jacking up taxes to preserve services. They won’t tolerate local authorities jacking up taxes to reduce inequality.
    And, they'll probably do it anyway.

    Wokery is encoded into their core DNA. And, it's going to prove deeply unpopular.
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    MattWMattW Posts: 19,607
    MisterBedfordshire said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    "One thing largely unnoticed in Labour’s manifesto: it will give public bodies a legal duty to reduce inequality (by enacting the socio-economic duty in the 2010 Equality Act for the first time). The socio-economic duty would have posed a significant legal obstacle to austerity (one reason the Conservatives never enacted it)."

    https://x.com/georgeeaton/status/1801968518243439000

    Which means they will likely face a huge economic crises before their first term is out (along the lines of having to raise interest rates significantly to shift gilts and shore up the £). The government is already spending more on interest than defence and education combined).
    TBH I don't think I see a huge impact. It is a duty to "consider", not to implement, and it doesn't look retrospective.

    Though I would probably try and use it to try and lever a policy to consider pedestrians better onto my Local Highways Authority.
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    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,981
    rcs1000 said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Peter_the_Punter said:

    ThanksTSE.

    Have to agree with you - SNP and Reform are a buy, Tories a sell.

    I wouldn't sell the Tories at 108.
    Me neither.

    I might buy Reform because of asymmetrical risk reward, but that's about it.
    I agree, selling at 108 is high risk, but all the evidence is suggesting they will come in lower than that. Betfair is probably more the more accurate predictor, and that is suggesting 80/90 seats.

    Reform is definitely a buy. So too LDs, probably.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,679
    Jonathan said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    So much for Reform/Conservative cross-over.....

    How’s is going MM? Still going strong. Here in Sussex, it seems that reports of the death of the Conservative Party were greatly exaggerated.
    The 60+ age group is still strong. Which down here is a chunk of votes...

    Yes, we've undoubtedly lost some. But not half, as the polls are saying.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 57,303
    MisterBedfordshire said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    "One thing largely unnoticed in Labour’s manifesto: it will give public bodies a legal duty to reduce inequality (by enacting the socio-economic duty in the 2010 Equality Act for the first time). The socio-economic duty would have posed a significant legal obstacle to austerity (one reason the Conservatives never enacted it)."

    https://x.com/georgeeaton/status/1801968518243439000

    Which means they will likely face a huge economic crises before their first term is out (along the lines of having to raise interest rates significantly to shift gilts and shore up the £). The government is already spending more on interest than defence and education combined).
    I said on here yesterday that SKS could be a one-term PM, and got pilloried for it.

    I must say, I'm looking forward to being hailed as a great prophet if (when) it happens.
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    NovoNovo Posts: 58
    edited June 15
    Survation and Savanta are at the top end of favourability to the Conservatives. I suspect there is a lot worse to come
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,287
    Sir Philip on Sky News.

    It's the media to blame.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 78,069
    SandyRentool said:

    Sir Philip on Sky News.

    It's the media to blame.

    For the rain in the cricket?
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,948
    Obligatory 'SKS fans please explain?' post.
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    MattWMattW Posts: 19,607
    Thanks for the header @TSE (now I've read it).

    Very kind of you to delete your comment so that I am now first.

    FIRST !!!!
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    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,478
    Ordinarily the right wing media would come to the Tories aid by laying into the party that’s causing it huge problems . But many of those outlets seem quite happy with Reform .

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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 57,303
    Mortimer said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Peter_the_Punter said:

    ThanksTSE.

    Have to agree with you - SNP and Reform are a buy, Tories a sell.

    I wouldn't sell the Tories at 108.
    I'm not going to be dabbling in the spreads this time.

    But.

    Almost every Tory I know won't be voting Tory this time.

    I'd take 108 any day. Suspect reality could be a lot worse.
    I don't play the spreads.

    I don't like how SPIN run them.
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,287
    SandyRentool said:

    Sir Philip on Sky News.

    It's the media to blame.

    Casting aspersions on YouGov now.
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    TimSTimS Posts: 10,896
    Some lovely memeing on that Savanta:

    https://x.com/faqtories/status/1802035568555028795?s=46
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    Clutch_BromptonClutch_Brompton Posts: 591
    My local advice to folk is not to bet on Reform winning North West Norfolk.

    Meanwhile reports of cross-over by Reform seem rather exaggerated
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,762
    So has nobody seen "The Legend of Ruby Sunday"?
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    MisterBedfordshireMisterBedfordshire Posts: 474
    nico679 said:

    Ordinarily the right wing media would come to the Tories aid by laying into the party that’s causing it huge problems . But many of those outlets seem quite happy with Reform .

    The Mail and Telegraph have been putting the boot in, but not as comprehensively as previously.

    Which was the election where Hitchens the right was taken off air by the Mail for several weeks during his Conservative Delenda Est phase?
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    WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,716
    edited June 15
    These Reform scores are poor.

    I expect Nige will be very disappionted, because some of these will include fieldwork after the Yougov by now, I expect. Where is the snowball factor of people apparently wanting to jump on the bandwagon, that you might have expected ? If it's not in evidence this weekend, I doubt it will suddenly arrive later on.
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    Clutch_BromptonClutch_Brompton Posts: 591
    FWIW I don't give Survation MRP equal weight with YouGov. Too many rather unlikely results. However, this result is very consistent with their previous one
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 52,080
    The SNP score is particularly disappointing for me and I find it hard to relate to what I am seeing on the ground in Scotland. The SNP are almost invisible because they have no money. We have had 1 leaflet from the SNP and 6 from the Tories (neither Labour nor the Lib Dems are wasting their time in this constituency, I am not even sure Reform are standing). This is in an SNP seat.

    Will that make a difference, other than to the recycling bins? Who knows, but it is a long time since the SNP have had so little impact in a major election. I will be gutted if they pick up 37 seats, gutted.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,097
    MarqueeMark said:

    Jonathan said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    So much for Reform/Conservative cross-over.....

    How’s is going MM? Still going strong. Here in Sussex, it seems that reports of the death of the Conservative Party were greatly exaggerated.
    The 60+ age group is still strong. Which down here is a chunk of votes...

    Yes, we've undoubtedly lost some. But not half, as the polls are saying.
    Thanks for sharing so openly, I am sure your working hard, and more than your leadership deserve.
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    MisterBedfordshireMisterBedfordshire Posts: 474
    edited June 15
    Clutch_Brompton said:

    FWIW I don't give Survation MRP equal weight with YouGov. Too many rather unlikely results. However, this result is very consistent with their previous one

    WhisperingOracle said:

    These Reform scores are poor,

    I expect Nige will be very disappionted, because some of these wil be fieldwork after the Yougov by now, I expect. Where is the snowball factor of people apparently keen to jump on the bandwagon, that you might have expected ? If it's not in evidence this weekend, I doubt it will suddenly arrive later on.

    I would like to see the raw figures.

    New entries on the block like Reform are tricky to weight.
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    MattWMattW Posts: 19,607
    Have we done this cool photo of Sir John Curtice when he was about half his current age, looking like a competitor in the Great Egg Race?

    https://x.com/JohnRentoul/status/1801915023414997137
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,523
    All the talk of Labour cleaning up has to be good news for the SNP and Greens.
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 16,127
    My gut feel is SNP will do a bit better than expectations. John Swinney has probably done just enough to steady the boat and on the basis nothing further will come out about party finances between now and July 4.
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,425
    edited June 15
    New Scotland Only Westminster poll, Norstat 11-14 Jun (changes vs 30 Apr- 3 May):
    Edit- SCOTTISH KLAXON!
    Lab ~ 34% (nc)
    SNP ~ 30% (+1)
    Con ~ 14% (-2)
    LD ~ 9% (+1)
    RUK ~ 7% (+1)
    Grn ~ 4% (nc)
    Alba ~ 2% (-1)
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,948
    viewcode said:

    So has nobody seen "The Legend of Ruby Sunday"?

    I have.
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    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,478
    Savanta had a war of words with Farage as they didn’t prompt for Reform.

    They said they intend to switch to a ballot prompt method but it’s not clear whether that’s happened for this poll.
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    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 11,298
    Matt. Genius.
    https://x.com/MattCartoonist/status/1801997816752963835
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,679
    Jonathan said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Jonathan said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    So much for Reform/Conservative cross-over.....

    How’s is going MM? Still going strong. Here in Sussex, it seems that reports of the death of the Conservative Party were greatly exaggerated.
    The 60+ age group is still strong. Which down here is a chunk of votes...

    Yes, we've undoubtedly lost some. But not half, as the polls are saying.
    Thanks for sharing so openly, I am sure your working hard, and more than your leadership deserve.
    But not more than our candidate deserves. He is one of the good guys.
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    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 6,637
    nico679 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    🚨NEW Westminster Voting Intention for Sunday
    @Telegraph


    📈25pt Labour lead

    📉Lowest Con vote share since May 2019

    🌹Lab 46 (+2)
    🌳Con 21 (-4)
    ➡️Reform 13 (+3)
    🔶LD 11 (+2)
    🌍Green 5 (+1)
    🎗️SNP 2 (-1)
    ⬜️Other 3 (-1)

    2,045 UK adults, 12-14 June

    (chg from 7-9 June)

    https://x.com/Savanta_UK/status/1802030811421564970

    Reform still 8 points behind the Tories . I’m surprised Labour have gone up after other recent polls.
    Manifesto?
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    CleitophonCleitophon Posts: 410
    Clutch_Brompton said:

    FWIW I don't give Survation MRP equal weight with YouGov. Too many rather unlikely results. However, this result is very consistent with their previous one

    You think a 2.200 sample yougov survey beats a 30.000 sample Survation sample in reliability??? 🤔🤔🤔 interesting.


    https://www.survation.com/survation-mrp-labour-set-for-record-breaking-majority/
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    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 21,472
    wooliedyed said:

    New Scotland Only Westminster poll, Norstat 11-14 Jun (changes vs 30 Apr- 3 May):
    Edit- SCOTTISH KLAXON!
    Lab ~ 34% (nc)
    SNP ~ 30% (+1)
    Con ~ 14% (-2)
    LD ~ 9% (+1)
    RUK ~ 7% (+1)
    Grn ~ 4% (nc)
    Alba ~ 2% (-1)

    An admirable - and prompt - recovery with the klaxon there. Sometimes one just has to doff ones cap and say: “well played”.
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,643
    Have Baxtered Savanta since nobody else has.
    Lab 521
    LD 51
    Con 30
    Ref 2
    GRN 1
    SNP 21
    PC 4

    Majority of 392.
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    RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,203
    DavidL said:

    The SNP score is particularly disappointing for me and I find it hard to relate to what I am seeing on the ground in Scotland. The SNP are almost invisible because they have no money. We have had 1 leaflet from the SNP and 6 from the Tories (neither Labour nor the Lib Dems are wasting their time in this constituency, I am not even sure Reform are standing). This is in an SNP seat.

    Will that make a difference, other than to the recycling bins? Who knows, but it is a long time since the SNP have had so little impact in a major election. I will be gutted if they pick up 37 seats, gutted.

    You find it hard to relate to what you're seeing ground because it isn't going to happen. The SNP would have won more preferences in Clydebank Central a couple of days back if they were on course to win 37 seats. Needless to say, that didn't happen.
    John Curtice doesn't seem to think the SNP are going to do particularly well, either.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gvBXPKl8NUI
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,948
    Norstat Scotland poll

    Lab ~ 34% (nc)
    SNP ~ 30% (+1)
    Con ~ 14% (-2)
    LD ~ 9% (+1)
    RUK ~ 7% (+1)
    Grn ~ 4% (nc)
    Alba ~ 2% (-1)

    According to Sir John Curtice’s analysis, this would see Labour return 28 MPs in Scotland, up from the current two, while the SNP would win 18 seats, compared with its 48 in 2019. The Lib Dems would increase their Scottish contingent of MPs from four to five.

    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/scotland/article/tory-voters-switching-to-reform-add-to-pressure-on-douglas-ross-mk962nlf5
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,425
    nico679 said:

    Savanta had a war of words with Farage as they didn’t prompt for Reform.

    They said they intend to switch to a ballot prompt method but it’s not clear whether that’s happened for this poll.

    It has indeed, that changed this week
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    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 6,637
    Casino_Royale said:

    MisterBedfordshire said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    "One thing largely unnoticed in Labour’s manifesto: it will give public bodies a legal duty to reduce inequality (by enacting the socio-economic duty in the 2010 Equality Act for the first time). The socio-economic duty would have posed a significant legal obstacle to austerity (one reason the Conservatives never enacted it)."

    https://x.com/georgeeaton/status/1801968518243439000

    Which means they will likely face a huge economic crises before their first term is out (along the lines of having to raise interest rates significantly to shift gilts and shore up the £). The government is already spending more on interest than defence and education combined).
    I said on here yesterday that SKS could be a one-term PM, and got pilloried for it.

    I must say, I'm looking forward to being hailed as a great prophet if (when) it happens.
    And I said that this is because rather than face the reality of the present you are creating an illusory future. It’s classic flight reaction.
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    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,478
    Heathener said:

    nico679 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    🚨NEW Westminster Voting Intention for Sunday
    @Telegraph


    📈25pt Labour lead

    📉Lowest Con vote share since May 2019

    🌹Lab 46 (+2)
    🌳Con 21 (-4)
    ➡️Reform 13 (+3)
    🔶LD 11 (+2)
    🌍Green 5 (+1)
    🎗️SNP 2 (-1)
    ⬜️Other 3 (-1)

    2,045 UK adults, 12-14 June

    (chg from 7-9 June)

    https://x.com/Savanta_UK/status/1802030811421564970

    Reform still 8 points behind the Tories . I’m surprised Labour have gone up after other recent polls.
    Manifesto?
    I thought the manifesto was as dull as dishwater . Maybe dull and safe is what people want !
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    spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,394
    viewcode said:

    So has nobody seen "The Legend of Ruby Sunday"?

    I watched space babies and couldn't watch the rest. and I'm a dr who fanatic
  • Options
    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 6,637
    Casino_Royale said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    🚨NEW Westminster Voting Intention for Sunday
    @Telegraph


    📈25pt Labour lead

    📉Lowest Con vote share since May 2019

    🌹Lab 46 (+2)
    🌳Con 21 (-4)
    ➡️Reform 13 (+3)
    🔶LD 11 (+2)
    🌍Green 5 (+1)
    🎗️SNP 2 (-1)
    ⬜️Other 3 (-1)

    2,045 UK adults, 12-14 June

    (chg from 7-9 June)

    https://x.com/Savanta_UK/status/1802030811421564970

    So it's an MRP modelled on that?

    Hmm. Interesting.
    I know both begin with S but one is Survation (S. Times) and the other is Savanta (S. Telegraph)
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    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 21,472
    tlg86 said:

    All the talk of Labour cleaning up has to be good news for the SNP and Greens.

    And bad news for Labour! Expect to see Wes Streeting all over the telly tomorrow telling anyone who listens that the polls are all wrong / a Tory plot
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    boulayboulay Posts: 4,719
    The longer it goes without a reform/con crossover poll the more Farage will look like a hubristic bellend on the back of that one poll the other day. Looking forward to a journalist asking him about the 4000 polls putting reform behind the Tories and if he still thinks they are the opposition.
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