Carthago Delenda Est – politicalbetting.com

Agreed. Only the destruction of the Tory party leaves the country able to look to a new future. The Tory party represents the failure of the past. Its ’broad church’ needs to be split apart so that the centre and the right can realign around new forces in the country. Once that happens the Labour Party will probably follow suit and we will get a more representative and successful democracy.

Good morning, everyone.

Mr. Eagles, how could you be a teacher of history when you aren't even a student?

As an aside, it's ironic Carthage recovered and, as an Exarchate of the Eastern Roman Empire rescued it from Flavius Phocas and Chosroes.

Destroyed.

Yes.

Another campaign day, another load of rubbish about the death of the Tory party and sensationalist Farage hype. I know the press have to sell tomorrow’s chip wrap, but it’s all a bit silly. We know mid campaign polls can be bollocks, so why do folk get obsessed by them.

Whilst not impossible, I severely doubt any of the hyped outcomes.

Farage is not leader of the opposition and will continue to struggle to win a seat.
There will be a Lib Dem recovery in parts of the south and west.
Labour will vastly impose on 2019 and will have achieved an amazing result to get a majority of one. Today it looks like they will get a majority, but it will be far smaller than the polls suggest.

Never underestimate the Tories, their vote will turn out and even if they do badly their seat count will be nearer 200 than 100.

Sean_F said:

Nigel Farage would agree with this header.

I doubt he’d agree with being called far right.

Good morning all. I am posting the below as a reminder of how the polls have actually moved over the past 3 weeks...

Labour and Conservative support now falling to the benefit of Reform UK and the Lib Dems.

LAB: 41.7% (-3.0 / +8.7)
CON: 21.2% (-2.3 / -23.5)
RFM: 14.9% (+2.9 / +12.8)
LDM: 10.7% (+1.4 / -1.1)
GRN: 6.1% (±0.0 / +3.3)

Changes since (Start of campaign / GE2019).
electionmaps.uk/polling

DoubleDutch said:

I don't really understand this article but thank you for it nonetheless @jamesdoyle

Everything about it is correct and excellent except the conclusion. Why should the Conservative Party need to be destroyed? That makes no sense to me.

"All" it needs to do is to return to the centre, which eventually it will do. Why should they give up on that place that they once owned?

I've been around the block enough to have heard all this before in the 1980's with Labour and the late 1990's with the Conservatives.

History repeats itself. Has to. No-one listens.

I think maybe that is the point. Has ‘history repeating itself’, been good for the U.K.? Many would feel that the UK has gone backwards over the last 80 years, under a two party system which has repeatedly delivered the same mistakes. Having lost the Tories will pretend to go back to the centre only for the right to reappear if they ever get back into power.
If we want to move forward the system needs to be broken and that requires the destruction of one, and then probably both, of the old parties. That should enable a more open, honest and representative democracy.

I'm voting Labour now.

My thoughts on kicking out elderly peers. Will ⁦@UKLabour go for the monarchy next?

Why King Charles should fear Starmer’s ageist plan for the House of Lords

The Labour leader’s plan to force peers to retire at 80 is a worrying sign of his attitude towards the elderly

https://x.com/danielmgmoylan/status/1801868634936996093

Morris_Dancer said:

Good morning, everyone.

Mr. Eagles, how could you be a teacher of history when you aren't even a student?

As an aside, it's ironic Carthage recovered and, as an Exarchate of the Eastern Roman Empire rescued it from Flavius Phocas and Chosroes.

I wave my A in A-Level History in your general direction.

This was when A-Levels were difficult.

Jonathan said:

Another campaign day, another load of rubbish about the death of the Tory party and sensationalist Farage hype. I know the press have to sell tomorrow’s chip wrap, but it’s all a bit silly. We know mid campaign polls can be bollocks, so why do folk get obsessed by them.

Whilst not impossible, I severely doubt any of the hyped outcomes.

Farage is not leader of the opposition and will continue to struggle to win a seat.
There will be a Lib Dem recovery in parts of the south and west.
Labour will vastly impose on 2019 and will have achieved an amazing result to get a majority of one. Today it looks like they will get a majority, but it will be far smaller than the polls suggest.

Never underestimate the Tories, their vote will turn out and even if they do badly their seat count will be nearer 200 than 100.

I think you will be eating your words on July 5th - the Tory vote protest by simply not going out and voting.

So expect a low (ish) turnout and hideous Tory results…

RochdalePioneers said:

Destroyed.

Yes.

Hopefully you will do your bit and beat the Douglas Ross…

"If this were a company, it would be a long-established, blue chip, FTSE 100 firm..."

Just like ICI.

I get the idea of James' header - we don't want a Faragist party to be able to use the Conservative brand to gain more support from the politically unengaged. Make them stick with their existing branding, a new centre-right outfit become established with a new name (suggestions on a postcard), and the Conservative name disappear into history.

eek said:

Jonathan said:

Another campaign day, another load of rubbish about the death of the Tory party and sensationalist Farage hype. I know the press have to sell tomorrow’s chip wrap, but it’s all a bit silly. We know mid campaign polls can be bollocks, so why do folk get obsessed by them.

Whilst not impossible, I severely doubt any of the hyped outcomes.

Farage is not leader of the opposition and will continue to struggle to win a seat.
There will be a Lib Dem recovery in parts of the south and west.
Labour will vastly impose on 2019 and will have achieved an amazing result to get a majority of one. Today it looks like they will get a majority, but it will be far smaller than the polls suggest.

Never underestimate the Tories, their vote will turn out and even if they do badly their seat count will be nearer 200 than 100.

I think you will be eating your words on July 5th - the Tory vote protest by simply not going out and voting.

So expect a low (ish) turnout and hideous Tory results…

Maybe, but my point is that if my hypothetical scenario comes to pass it would still be a radical change. We don’t need Baxtered hype and polls are only one source of data.

TimS said:

Good morning. Off to a university open day with my eldest today.

I’ll use my daily picture to show you something encouraging from this morning’s GFS weather model run.

Meteorologico improva est (trans. things can only get better)

33C? Time to head to the coast.

Tweedledee said:

DoubleDutch said:

I don't really understand this article but thank you for it nonetheless @jamesdoyle

Everything about it is correct and excellent except the conclusion. Why should the Conservative Party need to be destroyed? That makes no sense to me.

"All" it needs to do is to return to the centre, which eventually it will do. Why should they give up on that place that they once owned?

I've been around the block enough to have heard all this before in the 1980's with Labour and the late 1990's with the Conservatives.

History repeats itself. Has to. No-one listens.

Liberal party 1924

Dying Relative Fallacy. "Great Uncle John is on the point of death." "Oh don't worry about that, the doctors are always saying that but he always pulls through."

Erm, to be fair to DD there’s a bit of a difference with your example. A human being dies. We all do. It’s a living being that atrophies. We are mortal.

A political party is not a sentient being.

So the ‘Dying Relative Fallacy’ is a nonsensical example to use.

James_M said:

Interesting article, thanks for it. I must admit though I don't fully understand the conclusion. For me, as a Conservative member, our best hope of returning to the centre-right is to have enough MPs to be able to push back against narratives of mergers with Reform. There is enough in the brand, party infrastructure and wider party community to facilitate that movement over time. In part that more centrist element needs to have more confidence to push back against Farage. Destroying the Conservative Party is surely more likely to allow Reform to thrive given their prominent leader?

I agree that if the Cons do well enough to avoid a merger, that would work. But I think that a) doing that well is beyond them and b) there are too many voices already promoting the merger. In which case handing.Farage the brand in a useable state would be too dangerous. Hence the need for it to be Ratnered.

RochdalePioneers said:

DoubleDutch said:

And on that subject of voting reform, I note that some of the same people who state that Brexit and Indyref were once-in-a-lifetime referenda and cannot be re-opened are, hypocritically, suddenly all in favour of voting reform.

Neatly ignoring the fact that in 2011 the British people were offered, and decisively rejected, a reform of our electoral system: more decisively indeed than either Brexit or Indyref (68%-32%).

This election is going to throw out a result so distorted that the pressure for electoral reform will be unstoppable. Nor do we need a referendum - the Tories did one of those to place their LibDem partners who wanted neither a referendum nor the system proposed in it.

A couple of points on this.

1 are the Conservatives really going to u-turn on this?
2 voting share in first past the post elections isn't necessarily indicative of wishes. The Lib Dems for example don't want national vote share, they want concentrated support in a few seats. Also compare the voting in London between the supplementary vote previously and this year's first past the post.

eek said:

Jonathan said:

Another campaign day, another load of rubbish about the death of the Tory party and sensationalist Farage hype. I know the press have to sell tomorrow’s chip wrap, but it’s all a bit silly. We know mid campaign polls can be bollocks, so why do folk get obsessed by them.

Whilst not impossible, I severely doubt any of the hyped outcomes.

Farage is not leader of the opposition and will continue to struggle to win a seat.
There will be a Lib Dem recovery in parts of the south and west.
Labour will vastly impose on 2019 and will have achieved an amazing result to get a majority of one. Today it looks like they will get a majority, but it will be far smaller than the polls suggest.

Never underestimate the Tories, their vote will turn out and even if they do badly their seat count will be nearer 200 than 100.

I think you will be eating your words on July 5th - the Tory vote protest by simply not going out and voting.

So expect a low (ish) turnout and hideous Tory results…

People are wise to project fear, nowadays, and if the Tories try to promise anything eye-catching, people just laugh.

Jonathan said:

Another campaign day, another load of rubbish about the death of the Tory party and sensationalist Farage hype. I know the press have to sell tomorrow’s chip wrap, but it’s all a bit silly. We know mid campaign polls can be bollocks, so why do folk get obsessed by them.

Whilst not impossible, I severely doubt any of the hyped outcomes.

Farage is not leader of the opposition and will continue to struggle to win a seat.
There will be a Lib Dem recovery in parts of the south and west.
Labour will vastly impose on 2019 and will have achieved an amazing result to get a majority of one. Today it looks like they will get a majority, but it will be far smaller than the polls suggest.

Never underestimate the Tories, their vote will turn out and even if they do badly their seat count will be nearer 200 than 100.

It is a scenario! The death of the UK polling industry where every pollster including the ones employed by parties for private polls get it completely wrong.

It goes beyond polling - parties also have canvass returns to guide them. In your scenario the Tories are doing MUCH better than the headlines suggest. And yet when we look at what the Tories are doing, it demonstrates that if anything the polls aren't showing enough of a rout.

If Tory last time voters were Tory this time, we would know. Tory activists are knocking doors and making calls. That data gets fed into their model alongside their own polling. And sets the direction for the campaign.

Sunak is being sent in to defend True Blue seats with 20k majorities. Ministers are pushing lines to not give Labour a super majority. Are saying its OK to put Farage on Tory leaflets. Are desperately pitching to their core vote.

They would not be doing any of those things if your scenario was in play. There could be an abrupt plot twist - at the last a few million decide to vote Tory after all. But that is hopium. It isn't rooted in reality.

So it could happen. It just very certainly won't.

And all the talk of ‘soft Labour’ are completely ignoring the fact that many, many, people like myself are voting tactically.

I’m Labour leaning but I will vote LibDem. So a pollster would chalk me up as one of those drops in Labour support. It’s not that. It’s because I know that primary aim of booting out the sitting tory MP means I need to vote LibDem.

HYUFD said:

No the Conservative party must not be destroyed because if it is destroyed ie not just getting less than 100 seats but falling behind Reform on seats as well as voteshare, then the LD author of this piece will get exactly what he didn't want. It will be a hard right nationalist party led by Farage that would replace the Tories under FPTP not some new moderate centre right party. Indeed only PR might allow a rump Tories to still win a few seats at all in such a scenario

Indeed even the LDs don't seem to be interested in offering that. The LD manifesto after all was closer to Charles Kennedy social democracy than Nick Clegg Orange Book of the Coalition era when the LDs and Cameron Tories were the moderate centre right in the UK.

In short, your view is that the main value of the Conservative Party is acting as a brake on the right.

TheScreamingEagles said:

I'm voting Labour now.

My thoughts on kicking out elderly peers. Will ⁦@UKLabour go for the monarchy next?

Why King Charles should fear Starmer’s ageist plan for the House of Lords

The Labour leader’s plan to force peers to retire at 80 is a worrying sign of his attitude towards the elderly

https://x.com/danielmgmoylan/status/1801868634936996093

No, Starmer has made clear he backs a reformed monarchy, he is not now a republican like Corbyn was.

However that might mean King William sooner than expected if he doesn't want over 80s still working. Not sure how he tells President Biden or Trump?

RochdalePioneers said:

DoubleDutch said:

And on that subject of voting reform, I note that some of the same people who state that Brexit and Indyref were once-in-a-lifetime referenda and cannot be re-opened are, hypocritically, suddenly all in favour of voting reform.

Neatly ignoring the fact that in 2011 the British people were offered, and decisively rejected, a reform of our electoral system: more decisively indeed than either Brexit or Indyref (68%-32%).

This election is going to throw out a result so distorted that the pressure for electoral reform will be unstoppable. Nor do we need a referendum - the Tories did one of those to place their LibDem partners who wanted neither a referendum nor the system proposed in it.

This is nonsense.

Even if Labour polled as low as 35%, they did that in 2005. This is the system and it works.

There will be no ‘unstoppable’ pressure for anything of the sort. A stonking Labour majority will have many other things to address. And the excitable chatter of a few political nerds on a minor betting forum will have no relevance.

Jonathan said:

eek said:

Jonathan said:

Another campaign day, another load of rubbish about the death of the Tory party and sensationalist Farage hype. I know the press have to sell tomorrow’s chip wrap, but it’s all a bit silly. We know mid campaign polls can be bollocks, so why do folk get obsessed by them.

Whilst not impossible, I severely doubt any of the hyped outcomes.

Farage is not leader of the opposition and will continue to struggle to win a seat.
There will be a Lib Dem recovery in parts of the south and west.
Labour will vastly impose on 2019 and will have achieved an amazing result to get a majority of one. Today it looks like they will get a majority, but it will be far smaller than the polls suggest.

Never underestimate the Tories, their vote will turn out and even if they do badly their seat count will be nearer 200 than 100.

I think you will be eating your words on July 5th - the Tory vote protest by simply not going out and voting.

So expect a low (ish) turnout and hideous Tory results…

Maybe, but my point is that if my hypothetical scenario comes to pass it would still be a radical change. We don’t need Baxtered hype and polls are only one source of data.

We don't have 1 source of data - every poll is showing the same thing. the fact Rishi and co are compaigning in what were utterly safe Tory seats is another source of data

Literally everything says the Tories are having a far worse campaign than even I was expecting them to have when the election was called.

Heathener said:

IanB2 said:

DoubleDutch said:

And on that subject of voting reform, I note that some of the same people who state that Brexit and Indyref were once-in-a-lifetime referenda and cannot be re-opened are, hypocritically, suddenly all in favour of voting reform.

Neatly ignoring the fact that in 2011 the British people were offered, and decisively rejected, a reform of our electoral system: more decisively indeed than either Brexit or Indyref (68%-32%).

It was offering merely a minor tweak, not the full blown reform that is so badly needed.

I earnestly hope there is no reform of the voting system. We do NOT need to be giving undue power in Government to minority fringe groups like Farage’s Far Right Reform.

He (she?) is correct. We were offered a chance to change it and we said ‘nope’.

This is the system and all the new converts suddenly wanting to change it are only doing so because they don’t like the way results are heading.

Coalition government most often neutralises small fringe parties and then destroys them - though obviously this is dependent on how the electorate responds.

FPTP allows an extremist takeover of one side, or both, trapping centrist voters into voting for the extreme. See Trump, Johnson/Corbyn, Foot, etc.

HYUFD said:

No the Conservative party must not be destroyed because if it is destroyed ie not just getting less than 100 seats but falling behind Reform on seats as well as voteshare, then the LD author of this piece will get exactly what he didn't want. It will be a hard right nationalist party led by Farage that would replace the Tories under FPTP not some new moderate centre right party. Indeed only PR might allow a rump Tories to still win a few seats at all in such a scenario

Indeed even the LDs don't seem to be interested in offering that. The LD manifesto after all was closer to Charles Kennedy social democracy than Nick Clegg Orange Book of the Coalition era when the LDs and Cameron Tories were the moderate centre right in the UK.

Breathe. Don't frantically type as fast as you think.

This election - like every election - is about what *the voters* want. If they vote for Farage they should get Farage. The job of other parties is to politically defeat Faragism, not to rig the system so that Faragism bubbles away below the surface.

If your party gets smashed in a few weeks time its because the voters are so utterly appalled by you. The only people to blame will be yourselves.

Not wounded, or defeated, but utterly destroyed. Leave no electoral stone standing one on another, salt the earth and plough it under, chisel the inscriptions from the plinths of their toppled monuments. The Conservative Party must be destroyed.

That's pretty much what the Romans did to Jerusalem, particularly the Temple area in 70CE. Seemed to do the trick. I wonder how that project is getting on these days?

RochdalePioneers said:

DoubleDutch said:

And on that subject of voting reform, I note that some of the same people who state that Brexit and Indyref were once-in-a-lifetime referenda and cannot be re-opened are, hypocritically, suddenly all in favour of voting reform.

Neatly ignoring the fact that in 2011 the British people were offered, and decisively rejected, a reform of our electoral system: more decisively indeed than either Brexit or Indyref (68%-32%).

This election is going to throw out a result so distorted that the pressure for electoral reform will be unstoppable. Nor do we need a referendum - the Tories did one of those to place their LibDem partners who wanted neither a referendum nor the system proposed in it.

From memory the 1997 Labour Manifesto had electoral reform included within it. Labour won such a majority that they didn't bother to implement it.

I'm not sure what's different this time that is going to make a party with a 200 seat majority wish to lose it next time round.

But at least we will have multiple AV threads to look forward to...

Jonathan said:

Another campaign day, another load of rubbish about the death of the Tory party and sensationalist Farage hype. I know the press have to sell tomorrow’s chip wrap, but it’s all a bit silly. We know mid campaign polls can be bollocks, so why do folk get obsessed by them.

Whilst not impossible, I severely doubt any of the hyped outcomes.

Farage is not leader of the opposition and will continue to struggle to win a seat.
There will be a Lib Dem recovery in parts of the south and west.
Labour will vastly impose on 2019 and will have achieved an amazing result to get a majority of one. Today it looks like they will get a majority, but it will be far smaller than the polls suggest.

Never underestimate the Tories, their vote will turn out and even if they do badly their seat count will be nearer 200 than 100.

The gain in the Labour vote from 2019 is within the range of previous election results.

What is delivering the projected large majority is the collapse in the Tory vote. Just because one major party’s support hasn’t collapsed like that before, doesn’t mean that it cannot happen.

Indeed, arguably it has happened before, in 1983 for Labour, its just that Labour wasn’t in government at the time.

Good morning

For balance I disagree with the hope of the destruction of the conservative party not least because there is a place for a centre right party in our politics

I broke the story of Sunak debacle over DDay and am very angry to this day and I said I would vote Lib Dem in protest

With the postal votes about to arrive I told my wife, who said that nothing could bring her to vote for that 'Clown' Ed Davey after watching him foolng around on water and the role he played in the Post Office disgrace not least because she knows Alan Bates and was a customer at his post office here in Llandudno

She is not generally political, but we spoke about our votes and both agreed Sunak has failed and the conservatives are in a desperate state but far more worrying is the rise of Farage which horrifies us

To us it is important that the conservatives out poll Reform, and we have agreed that we will vote for the conservative candidate though it will have no effect on labour regaining the seat

I know Ed Davey and his antics are popular on here but certainly not reflected by my wife's opinion

@jamesdoyle thank you for engaging directly with posters. Your clarification helps (early in the morning for my brain!). I still disagree. I think the anti-reform element of the party is larger than alluded, especially at parliamentary level, and to destroy the party destroys them. I still believe that the media give Reform's rise too much credibility. Not enough people challenge Farage. Yes they are tapping in to a stream of opinion that the Conservatives must address, but the party is essentially a one man band, with limited infrastructure. Evidence of previous surges for outsider parties has suggested they fall back. The media love a narrative and Reform will do ok, but not, I suspect, as well as people think.

TheScreamingEagles said:

I'm voting Labour now.

My thoughts on kicking out elderly peers. Will ⁦@UKLabour go for the monarchy next?

Why King Charles should fear Starmer’s ageist plan for the House of Lords

The Labour leader’s plan to force peers to retire at 80 is a worrying sign of his attitude towards the elderly

https://x.com/danielmgmoylan/status/1801868634936996093

If you look at what he's doing he's trying to exactly copy and replicate what Blair did, and is being advised accordingly.

Private Schools? End Assisted Places; impose VAT
Hunting? Ban Fox Hunting; Ban Trail Hunting
Lords? End Hereditaries; End Over 80s

He's following a very careful playbook. For now, at least.

Is Farage Cato the Elder, misleading the Senate with his dubious arguments.
, and undermining Scipio Africanus along the way? Is Starmer Aemelianus, destroying the city but weeping over it at the same time? SOo much to ponder. Isn't history fun!

SandyRentool said:

HYUFD said:

No the Conservative party must not be destroyed because if it is destroyed ie not just getting less than 100 seats but falling behind Reform on seats as well as voteshare, then the LD author of this piece will get exactly what he didn't want. It will be a hard right nationalist party led by Farage that would replace the Tories under FPTP not some new moderate centre right party. Indeed only PR might allow a rump Tories to still win a few seats at all in such a scenario

Indeed even the LDs don't seem to be interested in offering that. The LD manifesto after all was closer to Charles Kennedy social democracy than Nick Clegg Orange Book of the Coalition era when the LDs and Cameron Tories were the moderate centre right in the UK.

What it would require is a "Gang of Four" moment, with several moderate Tory big beasts announcing that they refuse to be part of the new merged party, and that they were setting up a new, moderate, One-Nation party of the centre right. Grow from there, push the Faragists out to the fringe and job's a good 'un.

Actually, that's the name for the new party: One Nation.

For which one of them?

….One people, one leader?

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Good morning

For balance I disagree with the hope of the destruction of the conservative party not least because there is a place for a centre right party in our politics

I broke the story of Sunak debacle over DDay and am very angry to this day and I said I would vote Lib Dem in protest

With the postal votes about to arrive I told my wife, who said that nothing could bring her to vote for that 'Clown' Ed Davey after watching him foolng around on water and the role he played in the Post Office disgrace not least because she knows Alan Bates and was a customer at his post office here in Llandudno

She is not generally political, but we spoke about our votes and both agreed Sunak has failed and the conservatives are in a desperate state but far more worrying is the rise of Farage which horrifies us

To us it is important that the conservatives out poll Reform, and we have agreed that we will vote for the conservative candidate though it will have no effect on labour regaining the seat

I know Ed Davey and his antics are popular on here but certainly not reflected by my wife's opinion

☝️ this. They can crash the economy, disrespect veterans and HM m, raise taxes to their highest level and fail to deliver on every single promise and Tory voters will still find a way to vote for them.

There is literally nothing Sunak can do to lose some Tories vote.

SandyRentool said:

HYUFD said:

No the Conservative party must not be destroyed because if it is destroyed ie not just getting less than 100 seats but falling behind Reform on seats as well as voteshare, then the LD author of this piece will get exactly what he didn't want. It will be a hard right nationalist party led by Farage that would replace the Tories under FPTP not some new moderate centre right party. Indeed only PR might allow a rump Tories to still win a few seats at all in such a scenario

Indeed even the LDs don't seem to be interested in offering that. The LD manifesto after all was closer to Charles Kennedy social democracy than Nick Clegg Orange Book of the Coalition era when the LDs and Cameron Tories were the moderate centre right in the UK.

What it would require is a "Gang of Four" moment, with several moderate Tory big beasts announcing that they refuse to be part of the new merged party, and that they were setting up a new, moderate, One-Nation party of the centre right. Grow from there, push the Faragists out to the fringe and job's a good 'un.

Actually, that's the name for the new party: One Nation.

Until they merge with the Liberal Democrats in fairly short order.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Good morning

For balance I disagree with the hope of the destruction of the conservative party not least because there is a place for a centre right party in our politics

I broke the story of Sunak debacle over DDay and am very angry to this day and I said I would vote Lib Dem in protest

With the postal votes about to arrive I told my wife, who said that nothing could bring her to vote for that 'Clown' Ed Davey after watching him foolng around on water and the role he played in the Post Office disgrace not least because she knows Alan Bates and was a customer at his post office here in Llandudno

She is not generally political, but we spoke about our votes and both agreed Sunak has failed and the conservatives are in a desperate state but far more worrying is the rise of Farage which horrifies us

To us it is important that the conservatives out poll Reform, and we have agreed that we will vote for the conservative candidate though it will have no effect on labour regaining the seat

I know Ed Davey and his antics are popular on here but certainly not reflected by my wife's opinion

You’re now just a PB joke.

That’s the second election where you have spent weeks and weeks expressing your discontent with the Tories, claiming you won’t be voting for them, only when it comes to it, you vote for them anyway. Why do you insult us all with your nonsense?

MisterBedfordshire said:

It is a very interesting position. I think the thesis is fundamentally wrong as if the Conservative brand went, something much nastier, more resemblent of secular Paisleyism would take it's place in time.

Part of the problem is that "far-right" is grossly overused and used as a smear against anyone who disagrees with the current "mainstream" political consensus.

For example, a party proposing the return of the death penalty for murderers of children within the rule of law and judicial process with all it's safeguards is *not* far right, A party proposing the death penalty of its opponents using bills of attainder or applying it to trivial offences like "walking on the cracks of the pavement while wearing a loud shirt" is far right.

By smearing right wing views (views that were mainstream in democratic 1950s Britain) as far right, you smear those with those views.

Demonise enough people as far right and you risk someone actually far right getting power as you make the far right taboo (and voting for it) meaningless.

So be careful what you wish for.

Wise words.

Tweedledee said:

geoffw said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sandpit said:

Sir Alan Bates learned of his knighthood while watching Paula Vennells at the PO inquiry.

He had refused an honour last year because Vennells still had her CBE, but now that has been stripped from her he’s accepting a Knighthood on behalf of all the other sub-postmasters affected by the scandal.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/06/14/alan-bates-knight-paula-vennells-post-office-boss-horizon/

Good man, congratulations.

He should have been given a peerage.

He could have used parliamentary privilege to name and shame so many.

Better to name and shame without parliamentary privilege so the miscreants are goaded to sue and expose themselves to court scrutiny

I don't think there is much of a secret about any of this. The list of witnesses to the inquiry is public domain.

I have a far better honour for him.

CEO of the Post Office.

I would suggest to him that the Prosecution Department has a new target…

MisterBedfordshire said:

SandyRentool said:

HYUFD said:

No the Conservative party must not be destroyed because if it is destroyed ie not just getting less than 100 seats but falling behind Reform on seats as well as voteshare, then the LD author of this piece will get exactly what he didn't want. It will be a hard right nationalist party led by Farage that would replace the Tories under FPTP not some new moderate centre right party. Indeed only PR might allow a rump Tories to still win a few seats at all in such a scenario

Indeed even the LDs don't seem to be interested in offering that. The LD manifesto after all was closer to Charles Kennedy social democracy than Nick Clegg Orange Book of the Coalition era when the LDs and Cameron Tories were the moderate centre right in the UK.

What it would require is a "Gang of Four" moment, with several moderate Tory big beasts announcing that they refuse to be part of the new merged party, and that they were setting up a new, moderate, One-Nation party of the centre right. Grow from there, push the Faragists out to the fringe and job's a good 'un.

Actually, that's the name for the new party: One Nation.

Until they merge with the Liberal Democrats in fairly short order.

Indeed. No Change there.

James_M said:

@jamesdoyle thank you for engaging directly with posters. Your clarification helps (early in the morning for my brain!). I still disagree. I think the anti-reform element of the party is larger than alluded, especially at parliamentary level, and to destroy the party destroys them. I still believe that the media give Reform's rise too much credibility. Not enough people challenge Farage. Yes they are tapping in to a stream of opinion that the Conservatives must address, but the party is essentially a one man band, with limited infrastructure. Evidence of previous surges for outsider parties has suggested they fall back. The media love a narrative and Reform will do ok, but not, I suspect, as well as people think.

Here is the problem with Farage - he is closer to reality than people want to accept. The NHS as one example. He wants to replace it with a French-style system which so many of us suspect would just be an open door to American insurance companies.

But the heart of his argument - too much money being spent in the wrong places. And that is true, not a million miles away from what Daisy Cooper was saying on the same stage.

The secret of the Nigel's success is that he takes complex issues (like the NHS) and cuts straight to the core issue which he clips, simplifies and packages into a form people who don't really know how it works can digest.

I vehemently dislike his politics. But you have to respect the craft. He is a significant political operator. The way to defeat Faragism isn't to cling on to a voting system which is about to effectively disenfranchise 6m people. Its to engage the argument and actually provide solutions. The endless decline of our communities and the sense of powerlessness is why he is a thing. Lets go and fix that.

eek said:

Jonathan said:

eek said:

Jonathan said:

eek said:

Jonathan said:

Another campaign day, another load of rubbish about the death of the Tory party and sensationalist Farage hype. I know the press have to sell tomorrow’s chip wrap, but it’s all a bit silly. We know mid campaign polls can be bollocks, so why do folk get obsessed by them.

Whilst not impossible, I severely doubt any of the hyped outcomes.

Farage is not leader of the opposition and will continue to struggle to win a seat.
There will be a Lib Dem recovery in parts of the south and west.
Labour will vastly impose on 2019 and will have achieved an amazing result to get a majority of one. Today it looks like they will get a majority, but it will be far smaller than the polls suggest.

Never underestimate the Tories, their vote will turn out and even if they do badly their seat count will be nearer 200 than 100.

I think you will be eating your words on July 5th - the Tory vote protest by simply not going out and voting.

So expect a low (ish) turnout and hideous Tory results…

Maybe, but my point is that if my hypothetical scenario comes to pass it would still be a radical change. We don’t need Baxtered hype and polls are only one source of data.

We don't have 1 source of data - every poll is showing the same thing. the fact Rishi and co are compaigning in what were utterly safe Tory seats is another source of data

Literally everything says the Tories are having a far worse campaign than even I was expecting them to have when the election was called.

In the 2010 campaign a couple of polls put Clegg first, he lost seats. Polls are not everything. Of course the Tories are doing badly. A 150-200 seat outcome would be a terrible result for them.

Seats and polls are different areas - a national poll does not tell you how well you are going to do seat wise because a national poll of 5% has a different result if that 5% is spread equally across the country (no seats) rather than concentrated in 1 area (50 seats for the SNP is Scotland out of 59)...

Which is where Reform has problem because to win seats you need to get 30% or 40% (depending on how the votes get split) in an actual constituency and that's very difficult if you vote is broad and shallow rather than regional and deep..

My hypothesis is what people say to pollsters in the middle of an election campaign is not necessarily reflective of how they ultimately vote.

After D day, I am sure some would have been delighted to have opportunity to put the boot in, but as BigG so superbly demonstrates will vote Tory on the day.

I take polls with a pinch of salt and Baxter is just a bit of fun.

Tweedledee said:

geoffw said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sandpit said:

Sir Alan Bates learned of his knighthood while watching Paula Vennells at the PO inquiry.

He had refused an honour last year because Vennells still had her CBE, but now that has been stripped from her he’s accepting a Knighthood on behalf of all the other sub-postmasters affected by the scandal.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/06/14/alan-bates-knight-paula-vennells-post-office-boss-horizon/

Good man, congratulations.

He should have been given a peerage.

He could have used parliamentary privilege to name and shame so many.

Better to name and shame without parliamentary privilege so the miscreants are goaded to sue and expose themselves to court scrutiny

I don't think there is much of a secret about any of this. The list of witnesses to the inquiry is public domain.

Naming and shaming behind parliamentary privilege is what I am objecting to

Nigelb said:

TimS said:

The media just love a good Farage story, basically.

Any excuse to get the man in front of the cameras and they’ll leap at it. They have the same excitement-bias that several posters here (including me sometimes) share.

As noted above, it's the same dynamic as Trump; they've learned nothing.

The other factor in play which hasn't been much remarked on is the protest vote; the 'who do I vote for to show my disgust with the state of affairs ?'

Until now that's worked almost wholly in favour of Labour; the disillusioned right of centre were as likely to not vote as any other option. RefUK achieving some sort of significance in the polls perhaps gives a stronger incentive for a positive protest in the election ?

Which is why someone should have put up 650 deposits for Binface. At least it’s obvious who’s the protest vote, when there’s a man in a costume with a bin on his head walking around the town.

Yes the media are trying to build up Farage, in the same way as they built up Trump, and it’s free advertising for the shameless self-publicists.