Understanding the exit poll – politicalbetting.com
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At the last election, I was standing at a polling station with our candidate, and there was an exit poller in attendance. And, no, he didn’t disclose his findings.0
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Your prior instinct was right. There is no saving the Tories from these awful public school wets and their dreadful hangers on. They will always be socially scared of doing anything right wing. Unlike ThatcherSean_F said:
Either Reform need to come back to the Conservatives. Or, they have to kill them off. The worst result is the right getting 18% each, and 30 seats between them.wooliedyed said:In terms of whether the Tories claw their way back, we should know sooner than July 4th. If the crossover headlines haven't scared the core back to voting certainty by later next week they ain't coming back at all.
The Tories HAVE to die - or be forced into submission and merger - and this is our best chance of killing them off in a century2 -
Hillary into 30 for Dem nomination.......madness1
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More through luck than judgement as far as 2017, 2019 and now are concerned. The 2015 election was well signposted but Mrs Stodge and I needed a holiday after a big house renovation and the Palazzo seemed a good place to spend election night (or rather late afternoon and evening).Sandpit said:
That’s quite the impressive record of dodging election days!stodge said:Evening all
The good thing about the exit poll is it doesn't have to worry about Don't Knows and Won't Votes or Prefer Not to Say or whatever.It should be accurate on that basis. The 2019 exit poll was effectively an MRP - a forecast of seats based on the poll.
It underestinated Labour and overestimated both Conservative and SNP seats.
Anyway, of far greater import, I can now announce the REAL REASON Sunak called a General Election for July 4th.
This will be the fourth successive GE where I will be voting by post as Mrs Stodge and I are on holiday on Polling Day.
In 2015, we were in Las Vegas, in 2017 Zante, in 2019 Tenerife and this time the Isle of Man.0 -
The first debate is on June 27th, well before the convention. I’m still not convinced the Dems don’t swap Biden out if he turns up clearly not all with it.noneoftheabove said:Hillary into 30 for Dem nomination.......madness
But if they do swap him out, just about the worst person imaginable to replace him is Hillary Clinton.0 -
Ben Riley-Smith
@benrileysmith
NEW
Labour is now explicitly ruling out putting Capital Gains Tax on people’s main homes.
Labour spokesman: “No. Labour will not introduce capital gains taxes on primary residences. It’s a bad idea.”
===
Of course they are. It is electoral suicide.1 -
This is the PPB that Farage was claiming was so shocking that he was amazed to get past "compliance"!OldKingCole said:Party election broadcast by Reform is just a screenshot saying “Britain is Broken. Britain Needs Reform.
No-ones saying anything, no verbals.
The man's an idiot. Perhaps the least-watched PPB in history?1 -
He couldn't, if it was the official BBC one, with a secret ballotFairliered said:At the last election, I was standing at a polling station with our candidate, and there was an exit poller in attendance. And, no, he didn’t disclose his findings.
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If the Tories do merge/get swallowed by Reform I suppose you could get the Conservative name back. The wonderfully paradoxical Conservative Reform Party?
Only problem is the initials for that are CRP…1 -
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He was joking. FfsAlsoLei said:
This is the PPB that Farage was claiming was so shocking that he was amazed to get past "compliance"!OldKingCole said:Party election broadcast by Reform is just a screenshot saying “Britain is Broken. Britain Needs Reform.
No-ones saying anything, no verbals.
The man's an idiot. Perhaps the least-watched PPB in history?0 -
This shadowy group of people who can swap him out simply doesn't exist except in the minds of people who watch and follow too much MAGA.Sandpit said:
The first debate is on June 27th, well before the convention. I’m still not convinced the Dems don’t swap Biden out if he turns up clearly not all with it.noneoftheabove said:Hillary into 30 for Dem nomination.......madness
But if they do swap him out, just about the worst person imaginable to replace him is Hillary Clinton.
Biden can't get pushed out, if he withdraws the nominee will be Harris.0 -
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The recent presentation at the British Polling Council gave details of the exit poll methodology
https://www.britishpollingcouncil.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/LSE-BPC-Shedding-Light-on-the-General-Election-Final-v3.pdf- Fieldwork by Ipsos
- Analysis - John Curtis, Steve Fisher, Jouni Kuda, Jon Mellon, Rob Ford, Patrick English, Albert Ward
- Around 24,000 respondents in 130 polling stations
- Same polling stations as in 2019
- Analyse change in party vote share in each location
- Estimate regression models based on constituency characteristics
- Apply model to all constituencies to obtain predicted vote share for each constituency
- Convert predicted vote share into estimated probability party wins each constituency
- Exit poll prediction is sum of estimated probabilities for each constituency
- Are the polling stations representative? Given the significant change in the political world, the polling stations may not be as useful in a normal election with small changes. If there are uniform changes throughout the UK it may not matter, but if the changes are localised and variable it makes it more difficult. This suggests that there may be greater challenges predicting the smaller parties.
- Is the regression model fit for purpose?
- They identify the change in constituencies, and changes in polling stations as new issues.
2 - Fieldwork by Ipsos
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I'm at least green on that. Madness that it would be.Sandpit said:
The first debate is on June 27th, well before the convention. I’m still not convinced the Dems don’t swap Biden out if he turns up clearly not all with it.noneoftheabove said:Hillary into 30 for Dem nomination.......madness
But if they do swap him out, just about the worst person imaginable to replace him is Hillary Clinton.
If Biden falls pls let it be Shapiro or Buttigieg.
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Pedantically leaving the car in gear, or park if automatic, would have saved the day.boulay said:
The kid sadly didn’t make it, in his hurry to help him my father forgot to put the car in neutral and the handbrake on and it kept going and ran the guy over. Sad times. Only joking, yes he did.Heathener said:
+1boulay said:…
What your father did is surely less important than how they were. Not going to say what mine did but he was a magnificent man, loving, funny, gave shedloads to charity but more importantly gave his time to people who needed help. I remember being in a car with him when I was a fit and healthy 21 year old and we saw a motorcyclist hit by a car at a junction and I swear I could not have acted and run over to help faster than my father did, stopped the car and just ran out to help the kid.Heathener said:
Curtice sounds like a lovely chap. And the son of a carpenter (has a certain historical ring to it).Carnyx said:
Pleasant interview with Sir J here this very afternoon, raising the same issue.Heathener said:
Yes indeed.LostPassword said:
I guess they've refined their techniques since then. Continuous improvement is a good attitude we could all usefully adopt.Heathener said:Meanwhile, I have been 'exit polled’. It was in 2015 when I had just voted for Cameron’s Conservatives (@TSE take note!).
And there WAS a man outside with a clipboard asking how I had just voted. It was part of the official exit poll - he showed me the ID.
(And, no, his address wasn’t in Ibadan
)
But you have to admit to possible error, which people often find difficult.
I was registered at the time in Norfolk and unbeknown to me that particularly polling station is on the exit poll roster. IIRC they sampled every 10th person leaving the polling station or something like that (I asked them ‘why me?’). Anyway it was all official and I felt quite excited at being part of the famous 10pm tally.
I wouldn’t bet against Curtice and team either!
But I would note that they have their work cut out this time because there could be more tactical voting than ever before and likely some curious anomalous swings going on.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/14/elections-guru-john-curtice-exit-polls
I quite like this ‘my dad was a X, Y, Z’ fad at the moment, but it’s good to see his mum getting a mention: market researcher.
Nice article. Thank you for linking it.
xx
He would have been him if he had been a milkman, an accountant or a king.
So the whole “my father was a toolmaker” stuff is irrelevant - there have been arsehole toolmakers and arsehole people with other jobs.
What a lovely man he sounded. Did the kid make it?
Footie time for me now.
xx0 -
But Harris would now be a better bet than Biden I reckon. She can at least walknoneoftheabove said:
This shadowy group of people who can swap him out simply doesn't exist except in the minds of people who watch and follow too much MAGA.Sandpit said:
The first debate is on June 27th, well before the convention. I’m still not convinced the Dems don’t swap Biden out if he turns up clearly not all with it.noneoftheabove said:Hillary into 30 for Dem nomination.......madness
But if they do swap him out, just about the worst person imaginable to replace him is Hillary Clinton.
Biden can't get pushed out, if he withdraws the nominee will be Harris.0 -
And talking about dismantling the NHS during the debates can't possibly have gone down well with older voters, I'd have thought....wooliedyed said:
https://x.com/Callum_L_Hunter/status/1801651287273992321?s=19Sean_F said:
Either Reform need to come back to the Conservatives. Or, they have to kill them off. The worst result is the right getting 18% each, and 30 seats between them.wooliedyed said:In terms of whether the Tories claw their way back, we should know sooner than July 4th. If the crossover headlines haven't scared the core back to voting certainty by later next week they ain't coming back at all.
That suggests Farage won't convince the core older vote so I think it's Con eat Ref or they both go down0 -
And talk.Leon said:
But Harris would now be a better bet than Biden I reckon. She can at least walknoneoftheabove said:
This shadowy group of people who can swap him out simply doesn't exist except in the minds of people who watch and follow too much MAGA.Sandpit said:
The first debate is on June 27th, well before the convention. I’m still not convinced the Dems don’t swap Biden out if he turns up clearly not all with it.noneoftheabove said:Hillary into 30 for Dem nomination.......madness
But if they do swap him out, just about the worst person imaginable to replace him is Hillary Clinton.
Biden can't get pushed out, if he withdraws the nominee will be Harris.0 -
Yes, in my fantasy comedy accidental death scenario I didn’t think about the best way to leave the car set up. I should have said “drive” not neutral.Tweedledee said:
Pedantically leaving the car in gear, or park if automatic, would have saved the day.boulay said:
The kid sadly didn’t make it, in his hurry to help him my father forgot to put the car in neutral and the handbrake on and it kept going and ran the guy over. Sad times. Only joking, yes he did.Heathener said:
+1boulay said:…
What your father did is surely less important than how they were. Not going to say what mine did but he was a magnificent man, loving, funny, gave shedloads to charity but more importantly gave his time to people who needed help. I remember being in a car with him when I was a fit and healthy 21 year old and we saw a motorcyclist hit by a car at a junction and I swear I could not have acted and run over to help faster than my father did, stopped the car and just ran out to help the kid.Heathener said:
Curtice sounds like a lovely chap. And the son of a carpenter (has a certain historical ring to it).Carnyx said:
Pleasant interview with Sir J here this very afternoon, raising the same issue.Heathener said:
Yes indeed.LostPassword said:
I guess they've refined their techniques since then. Continuous improvement is a good attitude we could all usefully adopt.Heathener said:Meanwhile, I have been 'exit polled’. It was in 2015 when I had just voted for Cameron’s Conservatives (@TSE take note!).
And there WAS a man outside with a clipboard asking how I had just voted. It was part of the official exit poll - he showed me the ID.
(And, no, his address wasn’t in Ibadan )
But you have to admit to possible error, which people often find difficult.
I was registered at the time in Norfolk and unbeknown to me that particularly polling station is on the exit poll roster. IIRC they sampled every 10th person leaving the polling station or something like that (I asked them ‘why me?’). Anyway it was all official and I felt quite excited at being part of the famous 10pm tally.
I wouldn’t bet against Curtice and team either!
But I would note that they have their work cut out this time because there could be more tactical voting than ever before and likely some curious anomalous swings going on.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/14/elections-guru-john-curtice-exit-polls
I quite like this ‘my dad was a X, Y, Z’ fad at the moment, but it’s good to see his mum getting a mention: market researcher.
Nice article. Thank you for linking it.
xx
He would have been him if he had been a milkman, an accountant or a king.
So the whole “my father was a toolmaker” stuff is irrelevant - there have been arsehole toolmakers and arsehole people with other jobs.
What a lovely man he sounded. Did the kid make it?
Footie time for me now.
xx0 -
FDR.Leon said:
But Harris would now be a better bet than Biden I reckon. She can at least walknoneoftheabove said:
This shadowy group of people who can swap him out simply doesn't exist except in the minds of people who watch and follow too much MAGA.Sandpit said:
The first debate is on June 27th, well before the convention. I’m still not convinced the Dems don’t swap Biden out if he turns up clearly not all with it.noneoftheabove said:Hillary into 30 for Dem nomination.......madness
But if they do swap him out, just about the worst person imaginable to replace him is Hillary Clinton.
Biden can't get pushed out, if he withdraws the nominee will be Harris.2 -
Sure. But making himself look like a fucking idiot in the process.Leon said:
He was joking. FfsAlsoLei said:
This is the PPB that Farage was claiming was so shocking that he was amazed to get past "compliance"!OldKingCole said:Party election broadcast by Reform is just a screenshot saying “Britain is Broken. Britain Needs Reform.
No-ones saying anything, no verbals.
The man's an idiot. Perhaps the least-watched PPB in history?0 -
The limit for Reform is Nigel Farage. He can go a long way but probably has an ultimate limit of 30% ish of people who will consider voting for him. I don't think the 'challenger right wing party' will ultimately be led by him.0
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I’m just hoping it’s a draw so Biden and Trump have to be joint presidents living together in the White House where every day is like the sleepwalking scene from Stepbrothers.Leon said:
But Harris would now be a better bet than Biden I reckon. She can at least walknoneoftheabove said:
This shadowy group of people who can swap him out simply doesn't exist except in the minds of people who watch and follow too much MAGA.Sandpit said:
The first debate is on June 27th, well before the convention. I’m still not convinced the Dems don’t swap Biden out if he turns up clearly not all with it.noneoftheabove said:Hillary into 30 for Dem nomination.......madness
But if they do swap him out, just about the worst person imaginable to replace him is Hillary Clinton.
Biden can't get pushed out, if he withdraws the nominee will be Harris.3 -
They should have put taxes up on the highest earners and got rid of the two child benefit cap . They’ve backed themselves into a corner. The vast majority of the population don’t care about tax rises as long as they don’t effect them personally .rottenborough said:
Ben Riley-Smith
@benrileysmith
NEW
Labour is now explicitly ruling out putting Capital Gains Tax on people’s main homes.
Labour spokesman: “No. Labour will not introduce capital gains taxes on primary residences. It’s a bad idea.”
===
Of course they are. It is electoral suicide.0 -
They need an equivalent of Jordan Bardella. I.e. someone young but who doesn’t give off Tory boy vibes.darkage said:The limit for Reform is Nigel Farage. He can go a long way but probably has an ultimate limit of 30% ish of people who will consider voting for him. I don't think the 'challenger right wing party' will ultimately be led by him.
0 -
I wonder how much of the 'surge' is disengaged and unlikely to actually vote people. Not suggesting for a moment that it's not real but I think converting them to xxxs might prove challenging. I think he'd need at least a 5 point 'polling' lead to be likely to actually outpoll the Tories. Their danger is a snowball effect or even more fatalism setting inAlsoLei said:
And talking about dismantling the NHS during the debates can't possibly have gone down well with older voters, I'd have thought....wooliedyed said:
https://x.com/Callum_L_Hunter/status/1801651287273992321?s=19Sean_F said:
Either Reform need to come back to the Conservatives. Or, they have to kill them off. The worst result is the right getting 18% each, and 30 seats between them.wooliedyed said:In terms of whether the Tories claw their way back, we should know sooner than July 4th. If the crossover headlines haven't scared the core back to voting certainty by later next week they ain't coming back at all.
That suggests Farage won't convince the core older vote so I think it's Con eat Ref or they both go down0 -
Rishi continues on that spectrum between tone deaf and utterly shameful:
I asked Sunak if he could assure Zelensky that 🇬🇧 will support 🇺🇦 no matter what the election result, he replied: "I can only assure him of what I would do if I were prime minister." Suggested Labour's failure to commit to a timetable on defence spending creates uncertainty.
https://x.com/hugogye/status/1801675472008286509?s=46
3 -
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The Conservatives’ basic problem is that Farage and Reform are better-rated than Sunak and the Conservatives.
They rely on the 70+ legacy vote.2 -
I still think they will tax CGT as income, which is what happened in Canada quite recently.rottenborough said:
Ben Riley-Smith
@benrileysmith
NEW
Labour is now explicitly ruling out putting Capital Gains Tax on people’s main homes.
Labour spokesman: “No. Labour will not introduce capital gains taxes on primary residences. It’s a bad idea.”
===
Of course they are. It is electoral suicide.
Already leading to the inevitable, predictable capital flight.
I am currently working out which country to spend the next five years in, if - or when - it happens. So instead of 20%, they get nothing.0 -
Good eveningrottenborough said:
Ben Riley-Smith
@benrileysmith
NEW
Labour is now explicitly ruling out putting Capital Gains Tax on people’s main homes.
Labour spokesman: “No. Labour will not introduce capital gains taxes on primary residences. It’s a bad idea.”
===
Of course they are. It is electoral suicide.
Rayners lose talk must have spread panic in Labour ranks
Nobody who wants to be in power threatens home owners with capital gains tax on their own home0 -
Farage can't be doing much door knocking there.Nunu5 said:
He has name recognition but a plurality of those who have heard of him dislike him.0 -
Actually I think its quite clever. Reform don't really want to talk policy, they want the protest vote, and we are overwhelmed these days with video / music / noise. People just switch off, we have become the swipe generation. And nobody really watches the PPB properly, they are all the same. Doing this, its like your telly has broke, it will have made people stop and go WTF is going on.AlsoLei said:
Sure. But making himself look like a fucking idiot in the process.Leon said:
He was joking. FfsAlsoLei said:
This is the PPB that Farage was claiming was so shocking that he was amazed to get past "compliance"!OldKingCole said:Party election broadcast by Reform is just a screenshot saying “Britain is Broken. Britain Needs Reform.
No-ones saying anything, no verbals.
The man's an idiot. Perhaps the least-watched PPB in history?2 -
That’s a true statement, but not the right answer.TimS said:Rishi continues on that spectrum between tone deaf and utterly shameful:
I asked Sunak if he could assure Zelensky that 🇬🇧 will support 🇺🇦 no matter what the election result, he replied: "I can only assure him of what I would do if I were prime minister." Suggested Labour's failure to commit to a timetable on defence spending creates uncertainty.
https://x.com/hugogye/status/1801675472008286509?s=46
The right answer is that both himself and his main opponent are on the same page when it comes to Ukraine, and he is sure that Mr Starmer will honour his promises if the election were to go his way.0 -
Yeah I mentioned this thus morning and, per Woolies recommendation Labour quickly shut it down. Of course having to do so does leave the door open to those ????s about whither thy fundingBig_G_NorthWales said:
Good eveningrottenborough said:
Ben Riley-Smith
@benrileysmith
NEW
Labour is now explicitly ruling out putting Capital Gains Tax on people’s main homes.
Labour spokesman: “No. Labour will not introduce capital gains taxes on primary residences. It’s a bad idea.”
===
Of course they are. It is electoral suicide.
Rayners lose talk must have spread panic in Labour ranks
Nobody who wants to be in power threatens home owners with capital gains tax on their own home0 -
You're right that point 2 is the weak spot, given that the swings this time are likely to be like never before. There may also be a lot more seats where the minor parties have well below 50% chances of victory, where the randomness doesn't cancel out in the way that the many Lab v Con contests normally would.NickyBreakspear said:The recent presentation at the British Polling Council gave details of the exit poll methodology
https://www.britishpollingcouncil.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/LSE-BPC-Shedding-Light-on-the-General-Election-Final-v3.pdf- Fieldwork by Ipsos
- Analysis - John Curtis, Steve Fisher, Jouni Kuda, Jon Mellon, Rob Ford, Patrick English, Albert Ward
- Around 24,000 respondents in 130 polling stations
- Same polling stations as in 2019
- Analyse change in party vote share in each location
- Estimate regression models based on constituency characteristics
- Apply model to all constituencies to obtain predicted vote share for each constituency
- Convert predicted vote share into estimated probability party wins each constituency
- Exit poll prediction is sum of estimated probabilities for each constituency
- Are the polling stations representative? Given the significant change in the political world, the polling stations may not be as useful in a normal election with small changes. If there are uniform changes throughout the UK it may not matter, but if the changes are localised and variable it makes it more difficult. This suggests that there may be greater challenges predicting the smaller parties.
- Is the regression model fit for purpose?
- They identify the change in constituencies, and changes in polling stations as new issues.
1 - Fieldwork by Ipsos
-
Yeah, I couldn't ever vote for them but think they are the best at messaging this campaign, miles better than team Sunak. Labour and LDs going to plan to be fair.FrancisUrquhart said:
Actually I think its quite clever. Reform don't really want to talk policy, they want the protest vote, and we are overwhelmed these days with video / music / noise. People just switch off, we have become the swipe generation. And nobody really watches the PPB properly, they are all the same. Doing this, its like your telly has broke, it will have made people stop and go WTF is going on.AlsoLei said:
Sure. But making himself look like a fucking idiot in the process.Leon said:
He was joking. FfsAlsoLei said:
This is the PPB that Farage was claiming was so shocking that he was amazed to get past "compliance"!OldKingCole said:Party election broadcast by Reform is just a screenshot saying “Britain is Broken. Britain Needs Reform.
No-ones saying anything, no verbals.
The man's an idiot. Perhaps the least-watched PPB in history?0 -
Which is why Reform supplanting or merging with the Tories is a gift for the centre left.darkage said:The limit for Reform is Nigel Farage. He can go a long way but probably has an ultimate limit of 30% ish of people who will consider voting for him. I don't think the 'challenger right wing party' will ultimately be led by him.
Especially as Labour would push towards PR if it ever looked likely that the extreme right could win under the current system.0 -
I just don’t think Sunak understands foreign affairs or diplomacy. He’s never shown an interest in it, and he doesn’t have meaningful experience.Sandpit said:
That’s a true statement, but not the right answer.TimS said:Rishi continues on that spectrum between tone deaf and utterly shameful:
I asked Sunak if he could assure Zelensky that 🇬🇧 will support 🇺🇦 no matter what the election result, he replied: "I can only assure him of what I would do if I were prime minister." Suggested Labour's failure to commit to a timetable on defence spending creates uncertainty.
https://x.com/hugogye/status/1801675472008286509?s=46
The right answer is that both himself and his main opponent are on the same page when it comes to Ukraine, and he is sure that Mr Starmer will honour his promises if the election were to go his way.
What you write above would be a no brainer for politicians attuned to diplomacy. I just don’t think he gets it. Hence D-Day.2 -
I got 10/1 on a Tory majority on the night in 2015, thanks to this site.TheScreamingEagles said:
It put the Tories on 316 when most of the polls were putting the Tories in the 260 to 300 range.EPG said:The two-party swings in England at the last three general elections were one, three and five per cent. This time based on the GB polls, it could be fifteen to eighteen per cent.
Also, didn't the 2015 exit poll say NOM at 10pm? No criticism, but inaccurate enough for a well informed punter to improve on it, if you spot something they don't.
I got 10/1 on Leave similar thanks to that amazing spreadsheet.
And wasn’t it about 10/1 on Trump even when he was a dead cert based on analysis here? I made a ton then too.
Also, this site helped me rescue my position in 2017.
The moral? Be on here in election night.
I have paid my dues on the donate button when given the chance.
5 -
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2024/06/14/england-fans-euro-2024-panama-danger-word-serbia/
I think Sunak must be shouting Panama every 10s.0 -
IF you want to know probability, as a psephologist. IF you desire certainty, consult your chaplain . . . or vicar.LostPassword said:
I guess they've refined their techniques since then. Continuous improvement is a good attitude we could all usefully adopt.Heathener said:Meanwhile, I have been 'exit polled’. It was in 2015 when I had just voted for Cameron’s Conservatives (@TSE take note!).
And there WAS a man outside with a clipboard asking how I had just voted. It was part of the official exit poll - he showed me the ID.
(And, no, his address wasn’t in Ibadan )
But you have to admit to possible error, which people often find difficult.0 -
Pan Am. Aaahhh.FrancisUrquhart said:https://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2024/06/14/england-fans-euro-2024-panama-danger-word-serbia/
I think Sunak must be shouting Panama every 10s.0 -
A man, a plan, a canal…TimS said:
Pan Am. Aaahhh.FrancisUrquhart said:https://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2024/06/14/england-fans-euro-2024-panama-danger-word-serbia/
I think Sunak must be shouting Panama every 10s.0 -
They'd have been better off actually getting their proposed broadcast banned. Include a few subliminal flashes saying "SUNAK SUCKS DONKEY BALLS", or whatever is necessary to break Ofcom rules - and only then do the dull testcard broadcast as a protest at being "silenced".FrancisUrquhart said:
Actually I think its quite clever. Reform don't really want to talk policy, they want the protest vote, and we are overwhelmed these days with video / music / noise. People just switch off, we have become the swipe generation. And nobody really watches the PPB properly, they are all the same. Doing this, its like your telly has broke, it will have made people stop and go WTF is going on.AlsoLei said:
Sure. But making himself look like a fucking idiot in the process.Leon said:
He was joking. FfsAlsoLei said:
This is the PPB that Farage was claiming was so shocking that he was amazed to get past "compliance"!OldKingCole said:Party election broadcast by Reform is just a screenshot saying “Britain is Broken. Britain Needs Reform.
No-ones saying anything, no verbals.
The man's an idiot. Perhaps the least-watched PPB in history?0 -
The exit poll coped well in 2015 with the comedy swings we saw in Scotland.IanB2 said:
You're right that point 2 is the weak spot, given that the swings this time are likely to be like never before. There may also be a lot more seats where the minor parties have well below 50% chances of victory, where the randomness doesn't cancel out in the way that the many Lab v Con contests normally would.NickyBreakspear said:The recent presentation at the British Polling Council gave details of the exit poll methodology
https://www.britishpollingcouncil.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/LSE-BPC-Shedding-Light-on-the-General-Election-Final-v3.pdf- Fieldwork by Ipsos
- Analysis - John Curtis, Steve Fisher, Jouni Kuda, Jon Mellon, Rob Ford, Patrick English, Albert Ward
- Around 24,000 respondents in 130 polling stations
- Same polling stations as in 2019
- Analyse change in party vote share in each location
- Estimate regression models based on constituency characteristics
- Apply model to all constituencies to obtain predicted vote share for each constituency
- Convert predicted vote share into estimated probability party wins each constituency
- Exit poll prediction is sum of estimated probabilities for each constituency
- Are the polling stations representative? Given the significant change in the political world, the polling stations may not be as useful in a normal election with small changes. If there are uniform changes throughout the UK it may not matter, but if the changes are localised and variable it makes it more difficult. This suggests that there may be greater challenges predicting the smaller parties.
- Is the regression model fit for purpose?
- They identify the change in constituencies, and changes in polling stations as new issues.
They predicted 58 SNP seats versus the 56 they actually won from a base of 6 they had before the election.0 - Fieldwork by Ipsos
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I’m starting to think this site isn’t the best recruiting ground for Reform voters.0
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3:1 Deutschland I reckon.0
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Any polls coming out in the next few hours, for the poll-hungry ?
Waiter, could you bring the sweet trolley, and I may need a drink.3 -
You had automatics growing up? You lucky bastard. We had a 3 wheel supermarket trolley we had to double declutch. And push backwards oop t'ills.boulay said:
Yes, in my fantasy comedy accidental death scenario I didn’t think about the best way to leave the car set up. I should have said “drive” not neutral.Tweedledee said:
Pedantically leaving the car in gear, or park if automatic, would have saved the day.boulay said:
The kid sadly didn’t make it, in his hurry to help him my father forgot to put the car in neutral and the handbrake on and it kept going and ran the guy over. Sad times. Only joking, yes he did.Heathener said:
+1boulay said:…
What your father did is surely less important than how they were. Not going to say what mine did but he was a magnificent man, loving, funny, gave shedloads to charity but more importantly gave his time to people who needed help. I remember being in a car with him when I was a fit and healthy 21 year old and we saw a motorcyclist hit by a car at a junction and I swear I could not have acted and run over to help faster than my father did, stopped the car and just ran out to help the kid.Heathener said:
Curtice sounds like a lovely chap. And the son of a carpenter (has a certain historical ring to it).Carnyx said:
Pleasant interview with Sir J here this very afternoon, raising the same issue.Heathener said:
Yes indeed.LostPassword said:
I guess they've refined their techniques since then. Continuous improvement is a good attitude we could all usefully adopt.Heathener said:Meanwhile, I have been 'exit polled’. It was in 2015 when I had just voted for Cameron’s Conservatives (@TSE take note!).
And there WAS a man outside with a clipboard asking how I had just voted. It was part of the official exit poll - he showed me the ID.
(And, no, his address wasn’t in Ibadan )
But you have to admit to possible error, which people often find difficult.
I was registered at the time in Norfolk and unbeknown to me that particularly polling station is on the exit poll roster. IIRC they sampled every 10th person leaving the polling station or something like that (I asked them ‘why me?’). Anyway it was all official and I felt quite excited at being part of the famous 10pm tally.
I wouldn’t bet against Curtice and team either!
But I would note that they have their work cut out this time because there could be more tactical voting than ever before and likely some curious anomalous swings going on.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/14/elections-guru-john-curtice-exit-polls
I quite like this ‘my dad was a X, Y, Z’ fad at the moment, but it’s good to see his mum getting a mention: market researcher.
Nice article. Thank you for linking it.
xx
He would have been him if he had been a milkman, an accountant or a king.
So the whole “my father was a toolmaker” stuff is irrelevant - there have been arsehole toolmakers and arsehole people with other jobs.
What a lovely man he sounded. Did the kid make it?
Footie time for me now.
xx2 -
A trolley?!! You had a trolley?! We had to crawl to the shops over broken glass and gravel.Tweedledee said:
You had automatics growing up? You lucky bastard. We had a 3 wheel supermarket trolley we had to double declutch. And push backwards oop t'ills.boulay said:
Yes, in my fantasy comedy accidental death scenario I didn’t think about the best way to leave the car set up. I should have said “drive” not neutral.Tweedledee said:
Pedantically leaving the car in gear, or park if automatic, would have saved the day.boulay said:
The kid sadly didn’t make it, in his hurry to help him my father forgot to put the car in neutral and the handbrake on and it kept going and ran the guy over. Sad times. Only joking, yes he did.Heathener said:
+1boulay said:…
What your father did is surely less important than how they were. Not going to say what mine did but he was a magnificent man, loving, funny, gave shedloads to charity but more importantly gave his time to people who needed help. I remember being in a car with him when I was a fit and healthy 21 year old and we saw a motorcyclist hit by a car at a junction and I swear I could not have acted and run over to help faster than my father did, stopped the car and just ran out to help the kid.Heathener said:
Curtice sounds like a lovely chap. And the son of a carpenter (has a certain historical ring to it).Carnyx said:
Pleasant interview with Sir J here this very afternoon, raising the same issue.Heathener said:
Yes indeed.LostPassword said:
I guess they've refined their techniques since then. Continuous improvement is a good attitude we could all usefully adopt.Heathener said:Meanwhile, I have been 'exit polled’. It was in 2015 when I had just voted for Cameron’s Conservatives (@TSE take note!).
And there WAS a man outside with a clipboard asking how I had just voted. It was part of the official exit poll - he showed me the ID.
(And, no, his address wasn’t in Ibadan )
But you have to admit to possible error, which people often find difficult.
I was registered at the time in Norfolk and unbeknown to me that particularly polling station is on the exit poll roster. IIRC they sampled every 10th person leaving the polling station or something like that (I asked them ‘why me?’). Anyway it was all official and I felt quite excited at being part of the famous 10pm tally.
I wouldn’t bet against Curtice and team either!
But I would note that they have their work cut out this time because there could be more tactical voting than ever before and likely some curious anomalous swings going on.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/14/elections-guru-john-curtice-exit-polls
I quite like this ‘my dad was a X, Y, Z’ fad at the moment, but it’s good to see his mum getting a mention: market researcher.
Nice article. Thank you for linking it.
xx
He would have been him if he had been a milkman, an accountant or a king.
So the whole “my father was a toolmaker” stuff is irrelevant - there have been arsehole toolmakers and arsehole people with other jobs.
What a lovely man he sounded. Did the kid make it?
Footie time for me now.
xx
2 -
Just near neighbours.biggles said:
Hold on, haven’t you just stolen one of much missed PBer @seanT’s stories?Leon said:
I was FAMOUSLY exit polled for Brexitref as I exited the sunlit polling station in leafy Primrose Hill (back when we didn’t have summers like Anchorage, Alaska) and I asked the sweet girl doing the poll who on earth was paying her to exit poll the most Remainery polling station in the UK and she said “some bankers in the city” and that’s when I first began to think the powers-that-be had got it all wrong and a Leave vote was comingHeathener said:Meanwhile, I have been 'exit polled’. It was in 2015 when I had just voted for Cameron’s Conservatives (@TSE take note!).
And there WAS a man outside with a clipboard asking how I had just voted. It was part of the official exit poll - he showed me the ID.
(And, no, his address wasn’t in Ibadan )
It's a regular coincidence thing. Everyone experiences that.1 -
Scotland was SNP 56 of 59 seats on a quasi-majority of the vote in the era before Unionist tactical voting. That's the kind of result one can predict pretty well without an intricate regression model.TheScreamingEagles said:
The exit poll coped well in 2015 with the comedy swings we saw in Scotland.IanB2 said:
You're right that point 2 is the weak spot, given that the swings this time are likely to be like never before. There may also be a lot more seats where the minor parties have well below 50% chances of victory, where the randomness doesn't cancel out in the way that the many Lab v Con contests normally would.NickyBreakspear said:The recent presentation at the British Polling Council gave details of the exit poll methodology
https://www.britishpollingcouncil.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/LSE-BPC-Shedding-Light-on-the-General-Election-Final-v3.pdf- Fieldwork by Ipsos
- Analysis - John Curtis, Steve Fisher, Jouni Kuda, Jon Mellon, Rob Ford, Patrick English, Albert Ward
- Around 24,000 respondents in 130 polling stations
- Same polling stations as in 2019
- Analyse change in party vote share in each location
- Estimate regression models based on constituency characteristics
- Apply model to all constituencies to obtain predicted vote share for each constituency
- Convert predicted vote share into estimated probability party wins each constituency
- Exit poll prediction is sum of estimated probabilities for each constituency
- Are the polling stations representative? Given the significant change in the political world, the polling stations may not be as useful in a normal election with small changes. If there are uniform changes throughout the UK it may not matter, but if the changes are localised and variable it makes it more difficult. This suggests that there may be greater challenges predicting the smaller parties.
- Is the regression model fit for purpose?
- They identify the change in constituencies, and changes in polling stations as new issues.
1 - Fieldwork by Ipsos
-
Just got Yougoved for specifics of how I would vote in my constituency with the named candidates. I presume this is for a future MRP poll?1
-
I’m not that fucking old haha. My mum did have a nice Mercedes 300sl gullwing though and I remember her jag XJS being egged - maybe they were protesting her driving young children in an unsuitable car for kids safety.Tweedledee said:
You had automatics growing up? You lucky bastard. We had a 3 wheel supermarket trolley we had to double declutch. And push backwards oop t'ills.boulay said:
Yes, in my fantasy comedy accidental death scenario I didn’t think about the best way to leave the car set up. I should have said “drive” not neutral.Tweedledee said:
Pedantically leaving the car in gear, or park if automatic, would have saved the day.boulay said:
The kid sadly didn’t make it, in his hurry to help him my father forgot to put the car in neutral and the handbrake on and it kept going and ran the guy over. Sad times. Only joking, yes he did.Heathener said:
+1boulay said:…
What your father did is surely less important than how they were. Not going to say what mine did but he was a magnificent man, loving, funny, gave shedloads to charity but more importantly gave his time to people who needed help. I remember being in a car with him when I was a fit and healthy 21 year old and we saw a motorcyclist hit by a car at a junction and I swear I could not have acted and run over to help faster than my father did, stopped the car and just ran out to help the kid.Heathener said:
Curtice sounds like a lovely chap. And the son of a carpenter (has a certain historical ring to it).Carnyx said:
Pleasant interview with Sir J here this very afternoon, raising the same issue.Heathener said:
Yes indeed.LostPassword said:
I guess they've refined their techniques since then. Continuous improvement is a good attitude we could all usefully adopt.Heathener said:Meanwhile, I have been 'exit polled’. It was in 2015 when I had just voted for Cameron’s Conservatives (@TSE take note!).
And there WAS a man outside with a clipboard asking how I had just voted. It was part of the official exit poll - he showed me the ID.
(And, no, his address wasn’t in Ibadan )
But you have to admit to possible error, which people often find difficult.
I was registered at the time in Norfolk and unbeknown to me that particularly polling station is on the exit poll roster. IIRC they sampled every 10th person leaving the polling station or something like that (I asked them ‘why me?’). Anyway it was all official and I felt quite excited at being part of the famous 10pm tally.
I wouldn’t bet against Curtice and team either!
But I would note that they have their work cut out this time because there could be more tactical voting than ever before and likely some curious anomalous swings going on.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/14/elections-guru-john-curtice-exit-polls
I quite like this ‘my dad was a X, Y, Z’ fad at the moment, but it’s good to see his mum getting a mention: market researcher.
Nice article. Thank you for linking it.
xx
He would have been him if he had been a milkman, an accountant or a king.
So the whole “my father was a toolmaker” stuff is irrelevant - there have been arsehole toolmakers and arsehole people with other jobs.
What a lovely man he sounded. Did the kid make it?
Footie time for me now.
xx0 -
Germany should win tonight but don't rule out a draw, maybe a 25% chance. You tend to get more 'surprises' earlier in a tournament.0
-
French farce update: Eric Ciotti gets a tribunal to suspend his expulsion from the party so he’s still claiming the leadership.
https://x.com/eciotti/status/1801680506750120221
Le tribunal judiciaire de Paris a suspendu mon exclusion des Républicains.
Je conserve donc l’exercice de mes fonctions de Président.0 -
I thought we had decided Reform voters weren't as much recruited as grown like the Uruk Hai in Jackson's The Two Towers.biggles said:I’m starting to think this site isn’t the best recruiting ground for Reform voters.
2 -
Ukraine aspires to improve, which is the point.TimS said:
I remember being brought up short in Kyiv by a signboard for a restaurant featuring a cartoon of the ultimate stereotypical Jew: big nose and lips, kippah, money everywhere, proper fiddler on the roof / Oliver Twist stuff. The kind of image Corbyn would probably retweet approvingly without realising it was problematic.Leon said:
Yep. I’ve seen plenty more of this as wellWhisperingOracle said:
What a charming insignia, there.Leon said:Ok seventh like the Azov Batallion.
Seen in Kyiv three days ago
I wonder where I've seen that before ?
I know we are all pro-Ukraine here but I’ve seen some Nazi-tinged shit that would make your hair curl
I could post images but because of dorks like @Heathener we are still restricted to one a day
But I know you see the same or worse in Russia (I’ve seen it, in full flagrant view in the Moscow office of one of our partners shortly after the Crimea annexation - a cartoon of a jolly Russian farmer anal raping a Ukrainian woman). And Ukraine doesn’t seek the destruction of the Western world order.
Russia's aspiration is back to empire.4 -
A 300SL is a million-pound car these days. https://bringatrailer.com/mercedes-benz/300sl/boulay said:
I’m not that fucking old haha. My mum did have a nice Mercedes 300sl gullwing though and I remember her jag XJS being egged - maybe they were protesting her driving young children in an unsuitable car for kids safety.Tweedledee said:
You had automatics growing up? You lucky bastard. We had a 3 wheel supermarket trolley we had to double declutch. And push backwards oop t'ills.boulay said:
Yes, in my fantasy comedy accidental death scenario I didn’t think about the best way to leave the car set up. I should have said “drive” not neutral.Tweedledee said:
Pedantically leaving the car in gear, or park if automatic, would have saved the day.boulay said:
The kid sadly didn’t make it, in his hurry to help him my father forgot to put the car in neutral and the handbrake on and it kept going and ran the guy over. Sad times. Only joking, yes he did.Heathener said:
+1boulay said:…
What your father did is surely less important than how they were. Not going to say what mine did but he was a magnificent man, loving, funny, gave shedloads to charity but more importantly gave his time to people who needed help. I remember being in a car with him when I was a fit and healthy 21 year old and we saw a motorcyclist hit by a car at a junction and I swear I could not have acted and run over to help faster than my father did, stopped the car and just ran out to help the kid.Heathener said:
Curtice sounds like a lovely chap. And the son of a carpenter (has a certain historical ring to it).Carnyx said:
Pleasant interview with Sir J here this very afternoon, raising the same issue.Heathener said:
Yes indeed.LostPassword said:
I guess they've refined their techniques since then. Continuous improvement is a good attitude we could all usefully adopt.Heathener said:Meanwhile, I have been 'exit polled’. It was in 2015 when I had just voted for Cameron’s Conservatives (@TSE take note!).
And there WAS a man outside with a clipboard asking how I had just voted. It was part of the official exit poll - he showed me the ID.
(And, no, his address wasn’t in Ibadan )
But you have to admit to possible error, which people often find difficult.
I was registered at the time in Norfolk and unbeknown to me that particularly polling station is on the exit poll roster. IIRC they sampled every 10th person leaving the polling station or something like that (I asked them ‘why me?’). Anyway it was all official and I felt quite excited at being part of the famous 10pm tally.
I wouldn’t bet against Curtice and team either!
But I would note that they have their work cut out this time because there could be more tactical voting than ever before and likely some curious anomalous swings going on.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/14/elections-guru-john-curtice-exit-polls
I quite like this ‘my dad was a X, Y, Z’ fad at the moment, but it’s good to see his mum getting a mention: market researcher.
Nice article. Thank you for linking it.
xx
He would have been him if he had been a milkman, an accountant or a king.
So the whole “my father was a toolmaker” stuff is irrelevant - there have been arsehole toolmakers and arsehole people with other jobs.
What a lovely man he sounded. Did the kid make it?
Footie time for me now.
xx0 -
I think so as its outwith their Sky or times usual polling daysRichard_Tyndall said:Just got Yougoved for specifics of how I would vote in my constituency with the named candidates. I presume this is for a future MRP poll?
1 -
…
Yup. A bit annoyed she didn’t keep it.Sandpit said:
A 300SL is a million-pound car these days. https://bringatrailer.com/mercedes-benz/300sl/boulay said:
I’m not that fucking old haha. My mum did have a nice Mercedes 300sl gullwing though and I remember her jag XJS being egged - maybe they were protesting her driving young children in an unsuitable car for kids safety.Tweedledee said:
You had automatics growing up? You lucky bastard. We had a 3 wheel supermarket trolley we had to double declutch. And push backwards oop t'ills.boulay said:
Yes, in my fantasy comedy accidental death scenario I didn’t think about the best way to leave the car set up. I should have said “drive” not neutral.Tweedledee said:
Pedantically leaving the car in gear, or park if automatic, would have saved the day.boulay said:
The kid sadly didn’t make it, in his hurry to help him my father forgot to put the car in neutral and the handbrake on and it kept going and ran the guy over. Sad times. Only joking, yes he did.Heathener said:
+1boulay said:…
What your father did is surely less important than how they were. Not going to say what mine did but he was a magnificent man, loving, funny, gave shedloads to charity but more importantly gave his time to people who needed help. I remember being in a car with him when I was a fit and healthy 21 year old and we saw a motorcyclist hit by a car at a junction and I swear I could not have acted and run over to help faster than my father did, stopped the car and just ran out to help the kid.Heathener said:
Curtice sounds like a lovely chap. And the son of a carpenter (has a certain historical ring to it).Carnyx said:
Pleasant interview with Sir J here this very afternoon, raising the same issue.Heathener said:
Yes indeed.LostPassword said:
I guess they've refined their techniques since then. Continuous improvement is a good attitude we could all usefully adopt.Heathener said:Meanwhile, I have been 'exit polled’. It was in 2015 when I had just voted for Cameron’s Conservatives (@TSE take note!).
And there WAS a man outside with a clipboard asking how I had just voted. It was part of the official exit poll - he showed me the ID.
(And, no, his address wasn’t in Ibadan )
But you have to admit to possible error, which people often find difficult.
I was registered at the time in Norfolk and unbeknown to me that particularly polling station is on the exit poll roster. IIRC they sampled every 10th person leaving the polling station or something like that (I asked them ‘why me?’). Anyway it was all official and I felt quite excited at being part of the famous 10pm tally.
I wouldn’t bet against Curtice and team either!
But I would note that they have their work cut out this time because there could be more tactical voting than ever before and likely some curious anomalous swings going on.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/14/elections-guru-john-curtice-exit-polls
I quite like this ‘my dad was a X, Y, Z’ fad at the moment, but it’s good to see his mum getting a mention: market researcher.
Nice article. Thank you for linking it.
xx
He would have been him if he had been a milkman, an accountant or a king.
So the whole “my father was a toolmaker” stuff is irrelevant - there have been arsehole toolmakers and arsehole people with other jobs.
What a lovely man he sounded. Did the kid make it?
Footie time for me now.
xx1 -
What I call 'ills are probably Hills to you. One half doesn't know...boulay said:
I’m not that fucking old haha. My mum did have a nice Mercedes 300sl gullwing though and I remember her jag XJS being egged - maybe they were protesting her driving young children in an unsuitable car for kids safety.Tweedledee said:
You had automatics growing up? You lucky bastard. We had a 3 wheel supermarket trolley we had to double declutch. And push backwards oop t'ills.boulay said:
Yes, in my fantasy comedy accidental death scenario I didn’t think about the best way to leave the car set up. I should have said “drive” not neutral.Tweedledee said:
Pedantically leaving the car in gear, or park if automatic, would have saved the day.boulay said:
The kid sadly didn’t make it, in his hurry to help him my father forgot to put the car in neutral and the handbrake on and it kept going and ran the guy over. Sad times. Only joking, yes he did.Heathener said:
+1boulay said:…
What your father did is surely less important than how they were. Not going to say what mine did but he was a magnificent man, loving, funny, gave shedloads to charity but more importantly gave his time to people who needed help. I remember being in a car with him when I was a fit and healthy 21 year old and we saw a motorcyclist hit by a car at a junction and I swear I could not have acted and run over to help faster than my father did, stopped the car and just ran out to help the kid.Heathener said:
Curtice sounds like a lovely chap. And the son of a carpenter (has a certain historical ring to it).Carnyx said:
Pleasant interview with Sir J here this very afternoon, raising the same issue.Heathener said:
Yes indeed.LostPassword said:
I guess they've refined their techniques since then. Continuous improvement is a good attitude we could all usefully adopt.Heathener said:Meanwhile, I have been 'exit polled’. It was in 2015 when I had just voted for Cameron’s Conservatives (@TSE take note!).
And there WAS a man outside with a clipboard asking how I had just voted. It was part of the official exit poll - he showed me the ID.
(And, no, his address wasn’t in Ibadan )
But you have to admit to possible error, which people often find difficult.
I was registered at the time in Norfolk and unbeknown to me that particularly polling station is on the exit poll roster. IIRC they sampled every 10th person leaving the polling station or something like that (I asked them ‘why me?’). Anyway it was all official and I felt quite excited at being part of the famous 10pm tally.
I wouldn’t bet against Curtice and team either!
But I would note that they have their work cut out this time because there could be more tactical voting than ever before and likely some curious anomalous swings going on.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/14/elections-guru-john-curtice-exit-polls
I quite like this ‘my dad was a X, Y, Z’ fad at the moment, but it’s good to see his mum getting a mention: market researcher.
Nice article. Thank you for linking it.
xx
He would have been him if he had been a milkman, an accountant or a king.
So the whole “my father was a toolmaker” stuff is irrelevant - there have been arsehole toolmakers and arsehole people with other jobs.
What a lovely man he sounded. Did the kid make it?
Footie time for me now.
xx0 -
One of those fun political quizzes based on the manifestos.
Says I should vote Lib Dem, surprise surprise.
https://www.thetimes.com/article/285d9d36-830a-4847-b237-4cdc780edf38?shareToken=6b258d21f828373c026aaf27b17bb4121 -
-
Have any Germans turned up?1
-
Very very good. Subtle.Tweedledee said:
What I call 'ills are probably Hills to you. One half doesn't know...boulay said:
I’m not that fucking old haha. My mum did have a nice Mercedes 300sl gullwing though and I remember her jag XJS being egged - maybe they were protesting her driving young children in an unsuitable car for kids safety.Tweedledee said:
You had automatics growing up? You lucky bastard. We had a 3 wheel supermarket trolley we had to double declutch. And push backwards oop t'ills.boulay said:
Yes, in my fantasy comedy accidental death scenario I didn’t think about the best way to leave the car set up. I should have said “drive” not neutral.Tweedledee said:
Pedantically leaving the car in gear, or park if automatic, would have saved the day.boulay said:
The kid sadly didn’t make it, in his hurry to help him my father forgot to put the car in neutral and the handbrake on and it kept going and ran the guy over. Sad times. Only joking, yes he did.Heathener said:
+1boulay said:…
What your father did is surely less important than how they were. Not going to say what mine did but he was a magnificent man, loving, funny, gave shedloads to charity but more importantly gave his time to people who needed help. I remember being in a car with him when I was a fit and healthy 21 year old and we saw a motorcyclist hit by a car at a junction and I swear I could not have acted and run over to help faster than my father did, stopped the car and just ran out to help the kid.Heathener said:
Curtice sounds like a lovely chap. And the son of a carpenter (has a certain historical ring to it).Carnyx said:
Pleasant interview with Sir J here this very afternoon, raising the same issue.Heathener said:
Yes indeed.LostPassword said:
I guess they've refined their techniques since then. Continuous improvement is a good attitude we could all usefully adopt.Heathener said:Meanwhile, I have been 'exit polled’. It was in 2015 when I had just voted for Cameron’s Conservatives (@TSE take note!).
And there WAS a man outside with a clipboard asking how I had just voted. It was part of the official exit poll - he showed me the ID.
(And, no, his address wasn’t in Ibadan )
But you have to admit to possible error, which people often find difficult.
I was registered at the time in Norfolk and unbeknown to me that particularly polling station is on the exit poll roster. IIRC they sampled every 10th person leaving the polling station or something like that (I asked them ‘why me?’). Anyway it was all official and I felt quite excited at being part of the famous 10pm tally.
I wouldn’t bet against Curtice and team either!
But I would note that they have their work cut out this time because there could be more tactical voting than ever before and likely some curious anomalous swings going on.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/14/elections-guru-john-curtice-exit-polls
I quite like this ‘my dad was a X, Y, Z’ fad at the moment, but it’s good to see his mum getting a mention: market researcher.
Nice article. Thank you for linking it.
xx
He would have been him if he had been a milkman, an accountant or a king.
So the whole “my father was a toolmaker” stuff is irrelevant - there have been arsehole toolmakers and arsehole people with other jobs.
What a lovely man he sounded. Did the kid make it?
Footie time for me now.
xx0 -
Heh.TimS said:One of those fun political quizzes based on the manifestos.
Says I should vote Lib Dem, surprise surprise.
https://www.thetimes.com/article/285d9d36-830a-4847-b237-4cdc780edf38?shareToken=6b258d21f828373c026aaf27b17bb412
14 agree 5 disagree for the Tories, 13/6 for each of Lab/Reform (not sure how - do Reform have policies?), and the rest are nowhere. Basically I’m a Brexit voting (and wouldn’t change it) Starmer-ist.
That’s a massive contradiction, hence I am confused.
0 -
What a shit opening ceremony2
-
The nineties called and want their opening ceremonies back. Just need Diana Ross to bugger up a penalty kick now.2
-
There’s so many classic cars that are worth a fortune these days, but mostly because there’s not many of them left.boulay said:…
Yup. A bit annoyed she didn’t keep it.Sandpit said:
A 300SL is a million-pound car these days. https://bringatrailer.com/mercedes-benz/300sl/boulay said:
I’m not that fucking old haha. My mum did have a nice Mercedes 300sl gullwing though and I remember her jag XJS being egged - maybe they were protesting her driving young children in an unsuitable car for kids safety.Tweedledee said:
You had automatics growing up? You lucky bastard. We had a 3 wheel supermarket trolley we had to double declutch. And push backwards oop t'ills.boulay said:
Yes, in my fantasy comedy accidental death scenario I didn’t think about the best way to leave the car set up. I should have said “drive” not neutral.Tweedledee said:
Pedantically leaving the car in gear, or park if automatic, would have saved the day.boulay said:
The kid sadly didn’t make it, in his hurry to help him my father forgot to put the car in neutral and the handbrake on and it kept going and ran the guy over. Sad times. Only joking, yes he did.Heathener said:
+1boulay said:…
What your father did is surely less important than how they were. Not going to say what mine did but he was a magnificent man, loving, funny, gave shedloads to charity but more importantly gave his time to people who needed help. I remember being in a car with him when I was a fit and healthy 21 year old and we saw a motorcyclist hit by a car at a junction and I swear I could not have acted and run over to help faster than my father did, stopped the car and just ran out to help the kid.Heathener said:
Curtice sounds like a lovely chap. And the son of a carpenter (has a certain historical ring to it).Carnyx said:
Pleasant interview with Sir J here this very afternoon, raising the same issue.Heathener said:
Yes indeed.LostPassword said:
I guess they've refined their techniques since then. Continuous improvement is a good attitude we could all usefully adopt.Heathener said:Meanwhile, I have been 'exit polled’. It was in 2015 when I had just voted for Cameron’s Conservatives (@TSE take note!).
And there WAS a man outside with a clipboard asking how I had just voted. It was part of the official exit poll - he showed me the ID.
(And, no, his address wasn’t in Ibadan )
But you have to admit to possible error, which people often find difficult.
I was registered at the time in Norfolk and unbeknown to me that particularly polling station is on the exit poll roster. IIRC they sampled every 10th person leaving the polling station or something like that (I asked them ‘why me?’). Anyway it was all official and I felt quite excited at being part of the famous 10pm tally.
I wouldn’t bet against Curtice and team either!
But I would note that they have their work cut out this time because there could be more tactical voting than ever before and likely some curious anomalous swings going on.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/14/elections-guru-john-curtice-exit-polls
I quite like this ‘my dad was a X, Y, Z’ fad at the moment, but it’s good to see his mum getting a mention: market researcher.
Nice article. Thank you for linking it.
xx
He would have been him if he had been a milkman, an accountant or a king.
So the whole “my father was a toolmaker” stuff is irrelevant - there have been arsehole toolmakers and arsehole people with other jobs.
What a lovely man he sounded. Did the kid make it?
Footie time for me now.
xx0 -
Blue sky strategy to save the Tories: Liz Truss should sue for unfair dismissal and get herself reinstated as PM, then cancel the election because Sunak wasn't the legitimate PM and give herself six months to turn things around.2
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Mentioned that to Mrs Eek so she went to Yougov. Didn’t get that question just who out of the last 5 PMs is responsible for the current Tory situation.Richard_Tyndall said:Just got Yougoved for specifics of how I would vote in my constituency with the named candidates. I presume this is for a future MRP poll?
A harder decision than you would expect as all hold some responsibility albeit May only because of her desire to fix social care0 -
Sensibly avoiding spending the $$$$€€€€¥¥¥¥££££ that the Olympic ceremonies require. Anyhow the footie kicks off very soon…wooliedyed said:What a shit opening ceremony
0 -
That's a bit comedic, surely, when you have just survived a totally false accusation by the totally fascist lickspittle Tory press that you have just flipped a three bedder in some godawful NW ghetto that you installed your brother in and said was your main res on the tax return but told the neighbours you were "the landlord"?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Good eveningrottenborough said:
Ben Riley-Smith
@benrileysmith
NEW
Labour is now explicitly ruling out putting Capital Gains Tax on people’s main homes.
Labour spokesman: “No. Labour will not introduce capital gains taxes on primary residences. It’s a bad idea.”
===
Of course they are. It is electoral suicide.
Rayners lose talk must have spread panic in Labour ranks
Nobody who wants to be in power threatens home owners with capital gains tax on their own home0 -
When does Janet Jackson turn up and suffer a “wardrobe malfunction”?1
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'We need 100 people who have no rhythm or coordination to tit about to shop music'boulay said:The nineties called and want their opening ceremonies back. Just need Diana Ross to bugger up a penalty kick now.
2 -
It's morally quite simple.Leon said:
Yes, quite soTimS said:
I remember being brought up short in Kyiv by a signboard for a restaurant featuring a cartoon of the ultimate stereotypical Jew: big nose and lips, kippah, money everywhere, proper fiddler on the roof / Oliver Twist stuff. The kind of image Corbyn would probably retweet approvingly without realising it was problematic.Leon said:
Yep. I’ve seen plenty more of this as wellWhisperingOracle said:
What a charming insignia, there.Leon said:Ok seventh like the Azov Batallion.
Seen in Kyiv three days ago
I wonder where I've seen that before ?
I know we are all pro-Ukraine here but I’ve seen some Nazi-tinged shit that would make your hair curl
I could post images but because of dorks like @Heathener we are still restricted to one a day
But I know you see the same or worse in Russia (I’ve seen it, in full flagrant view in the Moscow office of one of our partners shortly after the Crimea annexation - a cartoon of a jolly Russian farmer anal raping a Ukrainian woman). And Ukraine doesn’t seek the destruction of the Western world order.
The truly confuddling thing is that both sides use Nazi imagery (wtf is the Z about on Russian tanks etc? And all those WAGNER guys with swastika tatts)
I think it is simply something soldiers do. Nazi signs are seen as macho and brutal and scary so you adopt them
Also there is merit in the Russian accusation that Ukrainian politics has some Nazi antecedents. Bandera is not fiction. He existed. And the Ukrainians were tremendous anti semites. But so were many Russians and the Estonians and Latvians etc who are now cherished partners in Europe
It’s a moral mess. But the fact is Putin is the invader and he threatens all of us so we must support Ukraine nonetheless
A nation state - a nascent democracy - has been invaded in a war of conquest.
The rest is whataboutery.6 -
I’m supposed to vote Green, with LibDems close behind, and the Tories last, behind even Reform.biggles said:
Heh.TimS said:One of those fun political quizzes based on the manifestos.
Says I should vote Lib Dem, surprise surprise.
https://www.thetimes.com/article/285d9d36-830a-4847-b237-4cdc780edf38?shareToken=6b258d21f828373c026aaf27b17bb412
14 agree 5 disagree for the Tories, 13/6 for each of Lab/Reform (not sure how - do Reform have policies?), and the rest are nowhere. Basically I’m a Brexit voting (and wouldn’t change it) Starmer-ist.
That’s a massive contradiction, hence I am confused.1 -
it is the Germans singing English songs in English, in preparation for the second greatest tournament of an English sport, said English sport being by far the most popular on the planet. And England are the favourites, or certainly closebiggles said:
It not exactly Nessun Dorma like the last one is it?boulay said:The nineties called and want their opening ceremonies back. Just need Diana Ross to bugger up a penalty kick now.
Don’t knock it. This is our cultural victory being shown to us. We won. They ain’t playing pétanque2 -
Half of those fireworks didn’t go off.0
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Yes, plus add in the strategic risk if this domino falls, and what Russia has done on our shores, and there is no question where the U.K. should stand.Nigelb said:
It's morally quite simple.Leon said:
Yes, quite soTimS said:
I remember being brought up short in Kyiv by a signboard for a restaurant featuring a cartoon of the ultimate stereotypical Jew: big nose and lips, kippah, money everywhere, proper fiddler on the roof / Oliver Twist stuff. The kind of image Corbyn would probably retweet approvingly without realising it was problematic.Leon said:
Yep. I’ve seen plenty more of this as wellWhisperingOracle said:
What a charming insignia, there.Leon said:Ok seventh like the Azov Batallion.
Seen in Kyiv three days ago
I wonder where I've seen that before ?
I know we are all pro-Ukraine here but I’ve seen some Nazi-tinged shit that would make your hair curl
I could post images but because of dorks like @Heathener we are still restricted to one a day
But I know you see the same or worse in Russia (I’ve seen it, in full flagrant view in the Moscow office of one of our partners shortly after the Crimea annexation - a cartoon of a jolly Russian farmer anal raping a Ukrainian woman). And Ukraine doesn’t seek the destruction of the Western world order.
The truly confuddling thing is that both sides use Nazi imagery (wtf is the Z about on Russian tanks etc? And all those WAGNER guys with swastika tatts)
I think it is simply something soldiers do. Nazi signs are seen as macho and brutal and scary so you adopt them
Also there is merit in the Russian accusation that Ukrainian politics has some Nazi antecedents. Bandera is not fiction. He existed. And the Ukrainians were tremendous anti semites. But so were many Russians and the Estonians and Latvians etc who are now cherished partners in Europe
It’s a moral mess. But the fact is Putin is the invader and he threatens all of us so we must support Ukraine nonetheless
A nation state - a nascent democracy - has been invaded in a war of conquest.
The rest is whataboutery.
2 -
Evening all! So what do we think?
Easy win for Germany?1 -
Has everyone forgotten that Nigel Lawson taxed capital gains at income tax rates?
https://www.taxjournal.com/articles/nigel-lawson-the-tax-reforming-chancellor
1 -
…
Come on Scotland. For Malc, Farooq, TheUnionDivie, Carnyx, Burgessian, Rochdale (lol) and any Scots posters I’ve missed. And most of all for Gordon Brown, may a little happiness finally enter your life. Just remembered DavidL, sorry, I keep thinking you are English.2 -
And the Germans are about to get stuffed by the UK’s second team.Leon said:
it is the Germans singing English songs in English, in preparation for the second greatest tournament of an English sport, said English sport being by far the most popular on the planet. And England are the favourites, or certainly closebiggles said:
It not exactly Nessun Dorma like the last one is it?boulay said:The nineties called and want their opening ceremonies back. Just need Diana Ross to bugger up a penalty kick now.
Don’t knock it. This is our cultural victory being shown to us. We won. They ain’t playing pétanque
0 -
Was Rishi involved?Sandpit said:Half of those fireworks didn’t go off.
4 -
Footnote for historians of 1970s UK anti semitism. The Jag xjs used to be called the Jew's Canoe which I never understood till someone very recently explained that the car's main competition was Mercedes, which Jews for obvious reasons tended to boycott.boulay said:…
Yup. A bit annoyed she didn’t keep it.Sandpit said:
A 300SL is a million-pound car these days. https://bringatrailer.com/mercedes-benz/300sl/boulay said:
I’m not that fucking old haha. My mum did have a nice Mercedes 300sl gullwing though and I remember her jag XJS being egged - maybe they were protesting her driving young children in an unsuitable car for kids safety.Tweedledee said:
You had automatics growing up? You lucky bastard. We had a 3 wheel supermarket trolley we had to double declutch. And push backwards oop t'ills.boulay said:
Yes, in my fantasy comedy accidental death scenario I didn’t think about the best way to leave the car set up. I should have said “drive” not neutral.Tweedledee said:
Pedantically leaving the car in gear, or park if automatic, would have saved the day.boulay said:
The kid sadly didn’t make it, in his hurry to help him my father forgot to put the car in neutral and the handbrake on and it kept going and ran the guy over. Sad times. Only joking, yes he did.Heathener said:
+1boulay said:…
What your father did is surely less important than how they were. Not going to say what mine did but he was a magnificent man, loving, funny, gave shedloads to charity but more importantly gave his time to people who needed help. I remember being in a car with him when I was a fit and healthy 21 year old and we saw a motorcyclist hit by a car at a junction and I swear I could not have acted and run over to help faster than my father did, stopped the car and just ran out to help the kid.Heathener said:
Curtice sounds like a lovely chap. And the son of a carpenter (has a certain historical ring to it).Carnyx said:
Pleasant interview with Sir J here this very afternoon, raising the same issue.Heathener said:
Yes indeed.LostPassword said:
I guess they've refined their techniques since then. Continuous improvement is a good attitude we could all usefully adopt.Heathener said:Meanwhile, I have been 'exit polled’. It was in 2015 when I had just voted for Cameron’s Conservatives (@TSE take note!).
And there WAS a man outside with a clipboard asking how I had just voted. It was part of the official exit poll - he showed me the ID.
(And, no, his address wasn’t in Ibadan )
But you have to admit to possible error, which people often find difficult.
I was registered at the time in Norfolk and unbeknown to me that particularly polling station is on the exit poll roster. IIRC they sampled every 10th person leaving the polling station or something like that (I asked them ‘why me?’). Anyway it was all official and I felt quite excited at being part of the famous 10pm tally.
I wouldn’t bet against Curtice and team either!
But I would note that they have their work cut out this time because there could be more tactical voting than ever before and likely some curious anomalous swings going on.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/14/elections-guru-john-curtice-exit-polls
I quite like this ‘my dad was a X, Y, Z’ fad at the moment, but it’s good to see his mum getting a mention: market researcher.
Nice article. Thank you for linking it.
xx
He would have been him if he had been a milkman, an accountant or a king.
So the whole “my father was a toolmaker” stuff is irrelevant - there have been arsehole toolmakers and arsehole people with other jobs.
What a lovely man he sounded. Did the kid make it?
Footie time for me now.
xx3 -
I said 0-0 above. I’m updating to 1-1.Sunil_Prasannan said:Evening all! So what do we think?
Easy win for Germany?
1 -
New Liz Truss campaign song: https://youtu.be/uWDprhRTXMQ0
This discussion has been closed.