It has arrived as predicted. The YouGov poll showing the Tories coming third. Now the debate on here will rage about whether the Tories get 50 seats or below.After election night the debate will continue. How did the Tories get 150, 175, 200 seats? Because people lied about who they were going to vote and several polling companies got it wrong, how why? That is the mystery. To panic Tory voters for example into voting for the party that in their heart of hearts they support. I post this now and anyone who agrees with me fantanstic. The majority will say I am wrong and it is hurting Labour etc. Rubbish. For the people who bet on this site if you are putting your money down on this poll and others like it you may as well put your money down the nearest drain. The odd person on here will thank me after the election is done and I am proved right. If I am wrong I will accept it after the election is over. Until then I will stick to my view. The debaters on here will vehemently diagree with me and justify why they are right and I am wrong. I have news for you.Do not be conned.Think outside the box.
I keep saying I think the Tories will get at least 25%, despite the polls.
They will really struggle to get above 20% now. Postal voting will begin next Wednesday so they have virtually no time left to avoid a catastrophic defeat.
I don't think this Yougov poll means much, the Tories are actually unchanged from the last Yougov, the main swing from Labour and LD to Reform. Just Yougov like to be the pollster with the big shock polls as they did in 2014 when they were the first and one of the only pollsters to have Yes ahead.
Tend to agree Labour won't be unduly happy to lose a point or two to the Lib Dems if the Tories remain becalmed - chances are it'll bring more southern Tory seats into play where Labour wouldn't have a hope.
And even if Lab lost/failed to gain a red wall seat or two as Reform pushed through, that would potentially have more negative connotations for Con than Lab.
Struggling to see what Sunak's late-campaign rabbit from the hat could be (and whether he could avoid shooting it on prime-time telly if there was)
The way things are going and with his unerring inability to read the public mood, I’d expect Sunak to pull an XL Bully out of the hat.
Tories are sub 20 with 4 pollsters. Its over. They will disintegrate over the next 3 weeks. I cant see them being the opposition.
Yes. Lets pull this movement apart: 1) Labour are shedding the soft vote that had herded into their column. Losing a few to Green, more to LibDem, some to Reform. That will reduce the number of seats they win and the majorities they get in those seats 2) LibDems are getting a lot of attention and people like what they see. Not relevant nationally, but the target seats focus and the willingness to vote tactically will pay out. I know the party is playing it down citing past elections, but Sarah Olney's tale of woe last night is a tale of elections past, not the one in front of us 3) Reform are transformed - the Nigel has doubled their support and the Tory dam is breaking. That Jenkyns leaflet won't be the only one. Once the dam breaks properly the surge of Tory votes to Reform is unstoppable now - watch the flow accelerate the closer we get to polling day 4) Sorry Tories, its the end. Nobody is listening to you, and the bits they hear they laugh at - openly, to your face.
Unless something radical happens to abruptly reverse it, this is going to be the biggest electoral shift for a century. The Tories have launched the manifesto now, its not going to pull a Farage-shooting rabbit out of the hat. And "don't give Labour a super-majority?" Not remotely enough when voters are now heading off to spread their votes about away from Labour.
I know that ELE is "it couldn't happen here". But it IS. Look. Listen. Think. What possibly can avert it now? Fear of that anodyne Labour offer? Fear of Farage? A sudden "poor Rishi lets vote for him after all" movement?
I have no clue what that means for seats. It's going to be fun.
I mean this in the nicest possible way:
You must be shitting yourself you might actually win
Rochdale would make an above average MP, I think ?
(Admittedly that’s not the highest of bars.)
Oh I hope he does. Actually as (part of being) a kid I didn't live very far away from his seat - village/town called Cullen.
But I doubt Mrs Rochdale thought he would win when she gave him permission to run. I'm just making that sentence up though based on what most marriages are like. Who knows. It's a bit unfair cause he surely cannot be expected to answer anyway. So I'll leave it there
Cullen is IN the seat. Hustings there next Thursday! We've been promised an appearance by the Ross.
Do you ever get confused, whether you're in North Aberdeenshire OR East Moray? Or is it East Aberdeenshire and North Moray? AND how do you tell for sure?
Lead on MacDuff!
I created an acronym on day 1 - ANME. My problem is pronunciation. Depending which part of the country you are from our local places - my village included - are pronounced very differently.
As an incomer - and Cyber Nats are already telling me to fuck off out of their town / country - I want to get pronunciations as balanced as I can.
Wowowowowow - Mordaunt's closing pitch - the terrible record of Labour over the last few years which you have to stop by choosing the Conservatives instead.
Back from a 5 mile cycle around various strata of Ashfield in estates around the main urban area.
101: ask the dog walkers, they always know where everything is - including the placards which are "hidden in the bushes, like the road signs". In the darkening evening at cycle speeds I may have missed some smaller ones, and some in windows - especially on a small wheel e-folder watching the road surface carefully.
In total I saw about 7-8 Ashfield Independent signs, and 1 Labour. No Tories - they are pretty much screwed, and they know it.
1940s-50s Council houses - nothing. Is there a "no placards" condition in the rental agreements? Will be mainly genuine working class I think, manual and trades, and mums and other priviliged-by-the-points groups, and the same retired or still there after having done RIght-to-Buy.
1990s housing a bit of AI. These will middle aged and decent pensions, or commuters living here for the house prices and nice environment. Some AI.
2000s and more recent housing. These will be mainly younger relatively newer on the housing ladder, and some Eastern Europeans. Lots of Audi, BMW and Mercedes wankers on 7-10 year old plates, with some Tonka Plonkers with older Range Rovers etc. Obviously parked all over the pavements. Again a bit of AI.
The one Labour was in my own lane, which is relatively mixed and mainly more upmarket, with properties from 150k to say 600k.
I haven't gone to 60s and 70s housing, of which we have swathes, and terraced areas of which have fair amounts.
Missed one comment.
I'd perhaps expect the 60s and 70s housing to be Reform territory, since they are usually older people who have lived here a long time, likely to be owner occupiers, and less transient. That is, mainly C1/C2.
I don't think this Yougov poll means much, the Tories are actually unchanged from the last Yougov, the main swing from Labour and LD to Reform. Just Yougov like to be the pollster with the big shock polls as they did in 2014 when they were the first and one of the only pollsters to have Yes ahead.
I don't think this Yougov poll means much, the Tories are actually unchanged from the last Yougov, the main swing from Labour and LD to Reform. Just Yougov like to be the pollster with the big shock polls as they did in 2014 when they were the first and one of the only pollsters to have Yes ahead.
I don't think this Yougov poll means much, the Tories are actually unchanged from the last Yougov, the main swing from Labour and LD to Reform. Just Yougov like to be the pollster with the big shock polls as they did in 2014 when they were the first and one of the only pollsters to have Yes ahead.
I don't think this Yougov poll means much, the Tories are actually unchanged from the last Yougov, the main swing from Labour and LD to Reform. Just Yougov like to be the pollster with the big shock polls as they did in 2014 when they were the first and one of the only pollsters to have Yes ahead.
Tories are sub 20 with 4 pollsters. Its over. They will disintegrate over the next 3 weeks. I cant see them being the opposition.
Yes. Lets pull this movement apart: 1) Labour are shedding the soft vote that had herded into their column. Losing a few to Green, more to LibDem, some to Reform. That will reduce the number of seats they win and the majorities they get in those seats 2) LibDems are getting a lot of attention and people like what they see. Not relevant nationally, but the target seats focus and the willingness to vote tactically will pay out. I know the party is playing it down citing past elections, but Sarah Olney's tale of woe last night is a tale of elections past, not the one in front of us 3) Reform are transformed - the Nigel has doubled their support and the Tory dam is breaking. That Jenkyns leaflet won't be the only one. Once the dam breaks properly the surge of Tory votes to Reform is unstoppable now - watch the flow accelerate the closer we get to polling day 4) Sorry Tories, its the end. Nobody is listening to you, and the bits they hear they laugh at - openly, to your face.
Unless something radical happens to abruptly reverse it, this is going to be the biggest electoral shift for a century. The Tories have launched the manifesto now, its not going to pull a Farage-shooting rabbit out of the hat. And "don't give Labour a super-majority?" Not remotely enough when voters are now heading off to spread their votes about away from Labour.
I know that ELE is "it couldn't happen here". But it IS. Look. Listen. Think. What possibly can avert it now? Fear of that anodyne Labour offer? Fear of Farage? A sudden "poor Rishi lets vote for him after all" movement?
I have no clue what that means for seats. It's going to be fun.
I mean this in the nicest possible way:
You must be shitting yourself you might actually win
Rochdale would make an above average MP, I think ?
(Admittedly that’s not the highest of bars.)
I have a problem - I get bored toeing the line. I've got to where I have professionally by putting frank honesty out instead of excuses. "We fucked up, we're sorry, here's how we're making it right". Works far better than denial, spin and bullshit.
A party whip would hate me.
They could make you a party whip, just for the LOLZ!
I don't think this Yougov poll means much, the Tories are actually unchanged from the last Yougov, the main swing from Labour and LD to Reform. Just Yougov like to be the pollster with the big shock polls as they did in 2014 when they were the first and one of the only pollsters to have Yes ahead.
I find it confusing why people are so negative about Reform. It is obvious why they are doing so well. They have actual clear policies that appeal to probably 30-40% of voters.
It has arrived as predicted. The YouGov poll showing the Tories coming third. Now the debate on here will rage about whether the Tories get 50 seats or below.After election night the debate will continue. How did the Tories get 150, 175, 200 seats? Because people lied about who they were going to vote and several polling companies got it wrong, how why? That is the mystery. To panic Tory voters for example into voting for the party that in their heart of hearts they support. I post this now and anyone who agrees with me fantanstic. The majority will say I am wrong and it is hurting Labour etc. Rubbish. For the people who bet on this site if you are putting your money down on this poll and others like it you may as well put your money down the nearest drain. The odd person on here will thank me after the election is done and I am proved right. If I am wrong I will accept it after the election is over. Until then I will stick to my view. The debaters on here will vehemently diagree with me and justify why they are right and I am wrong. I have news for you.Do not be conned.Think outside the box.
I keep saying I think the Tories will get at least 25%, despite the polls.
They will really struggle to get above 20% now. Postal voting will begin next Wednesday so they have virtually no time left to avoid a catastrophic defeat.
They're probably very lucky that most of their core vote is postal. Any further collapse will be mitigated. Folk at the counts were pretty certain Labour won on the day in 2017.
I don't think this Yougov poll means much, the Tories are actually unchanged from the last Yougov, the main swing from Labour and LD to Reform. Just Yougov like to be the pollster with the big shock polls as they did in 2014 when they were the first and one of the only pollsters to have Yes ahead.
I don't think this Yougov poll means much, the Tories are actually unchanged from the last Yougov, the main swing from Labour and LD to Reform. Just Yougov like to be the pollster with the big shock polls as they did in 2014 when they were the first and one of the only pollsters to have Yes ahead.
Con on 71 is a complete catastrophe for the most successful political party in British history
Thing is, whatever happens the right has now won, even in defeat. In the face of a potentially calamitous Tory loss and over 60% of polling opinion supporting left of degree parties, the Reform scores in the teens mean most of the media that Sunak lost because they weren’t right wing enough.
The Tory approach to trying to park their tanks on Reform lawn has worked out well.
Reform don’t have a lawn. It will be weed infested concrete slabs with an old rusty Ford Mondeo parked on it.
Yes.
Our economy has generated a large number of such voters over the last few decades.
Now I don't think the right have solutions to these peoples problems, but I am glad I live in a country which has a democratic system which allows such people to have their voices heard.
I don't think this Yougov poll means much, the Tories are actually unchanged from the last Yougov, the main swing from Labour and LD to Reform. Just Yougov like to be the pollster with the big shock polls as they did in 2014 when they were the first and one of the only pollsters to have Yes ahead.
I don't think this Yougov poll means much, the Tories are actually unchanged from the last Yougov, the main swing from Labour and LD to Reform. Just Yougov like to be the pollster with the big shock polls as they did in 2014 when they were the first and one of the only pollsters to have Yes ahead.
I find it confusing why people are so negative about Reform. It is obvious why they are doing so well. They have actual clear policies that appeal to probably 30-40% of voters.
Because nobody really thinks Nigel believes a word of it. He's a grifter. Purely out for number one. Always has been, always will be.
If he should win a seat at Westminster this time, do you honestly see him sticking around doing mundane constituency work day in and day out?
I’m shocked that the Tories so far have received no bounce from their manifesto . They were essentially handing out money . So either the public don’t believe they can deliver on those pledges or they just hate the party and want them eviscerated.
No-one believes the Tories will win so no-one believes they are in any position to deliver what they promise. The Tories are just as irrelevant now as Plaid Cymru promising lots of welfare and to take Wales into the EU.
And the fact they are promising so much indicates the Tories don't think they will have to deliver on it either.
I don't think this Yougov poll means much, the Tories are actually unchanged from the last Yougov, the main swing from Labour and LD to Reform. Just Yougov like to be the pollster with the big shock polls as they did in 2014 when they were the first and one of the only pollsters to have Yes ahead.
Question - is 71 seats to just cling on as HM Official Opposition now the top end of expectations?
Yes I would take that now
All joking aside, I have some sympathy for your predicament, still, I am mildly shocked that even a fervent Tory loyalist like you is prepared to admit disaster is staring the party in the face even before a single vote is cast.
I find it confusing why people are so negative about Reform. It is obvious why they are doing so well. They have actual clear policies that appeal to probably 30-40% of voters.
I don't think this Yougov poll means much, the Tories are actually unchanged from the last Yougov, the main swing from Labour and LD to Reform. Just Yougov like to be the pollster with the big shock polls as they did in 2014 when they were the first and one of the only pollsters to have Yes ahead.
I find it confusing why people are so negative about Reform. It is obvious why they are doing so well. They have actual clear policies that appeal to probably 30-40% of voters.
Tax cuts, spending cuts and better public services? Sounds great to me!
I can only imagine what it is like day to day inside the White House. There is no way he is making any decisions.
Indeed
That’s one of the saddest of all the videos I’ve seen. He’s just pitiable now, it cannot be fun, his wife needs to do the right thing. Imagine him trying to last til 2028??
The way Macron then Meloni have to rescue him, Jeez. This is the President of the USA!
I don't think this Yougov poll means much, the Tories are actually unchanged from the last Yougov, the main swing from Labour and LD to Reform. Just Yougov like to be the pollster with the big shock polls as they did in 2014 when they were the first and one of the only pollsters to have Yes ahead.
Question - is 71 seats to just cling on as HM Official Opposition now the top end of expectations?
Yes I would take that now
Bloody hell. HY you're one of the Tories on here whose judgement I respect. If you're saying you'd take 71 seats ... I'm speechless.
(I also think you're wrong by the way. I strongly suspect on the day itself enough people will vote Tory through gritted teeth cf @DavidL that they'll get 120-150 seats at least.)
Can Rishi resign and be replaced with Hunt? I'm not saying it'll do much, but it might win back a few Tories who'd sooner not experience Rishi's haplessness and Nigel's spivvery if they didn't have to.
LAB 43 (-1) CON 19 (-1) REF 16 (+1) LIB 11 (+1) GRN 6 (=0) SNP 2 (=0)
F/W 12-13 June
So straight away another poll still has the Tories ahead of Reform
Come on. You can see the trend as well as we can. You're down to 19 and dropping. 3 weeks left and at this rate you're below them in 3 days.
I can see Yougov like to spin the media narrative with a poll of Reform ahead of the Tories as they drove the narrative in 2014 with a poll with Yes ahead. They were always going to poll until they got that result, which they did by 1% with the Tory voteshare unchanged and with all other polls still having the Tories ahead of Reform.
However if you want PM Farage if Reform overtake the Tories on votes and seats that is what you will eventually get within a decade if they do. And from your perspective it would be a nasty, nasty, nasty government that would make you wishing for the days of Sunak and Cameron! Leon would love it of course!
Did you know, that at one stage of his long political career, Winston Churchill floated the idea, of dividing up England into seven self-governing regions?
I find it confusing why people are so negative about Reform. It is obvious why they are doing so well. They have actual clear policies that appeal to probably 30-40% of voters.
Clear policies* that appeal to 15% more like!
*ones that fall apart when examined and costed.
Setting aside the fact I disagree with such string limits on immigration anyway, they haven’t thought it through.
If you limit immigration that much, you either have to push on birth rates or create a vision that moves on from our obsession with GDP growth (at our level of development a lot of it will always be population growth).
There’s actually something to be said for that moving on from GDP. But it’s more of a green policy really.
I can't say that I am enjoying this election. The Tories are not really my team but jeez.
Labour are getting away with promising something at the margins. And not being Tories. That is enough, apparently. Sunak has been a poor PM, no argument, but I don't think he deserves this. I will be glad when its over.
Aren't they? I had you down as a dyed in the wool Conservative. Have I got you totally wrong?
No particular reason for you to read my posts but I have been very critical of the Tories for a long time. The rank dishonesty of Boris, the utter incompetence of Truss and the ineptitude of Sunak. I was disgusted with the HS2 decision, the abandonment of levelling up, the dishonesty of giving tax cuts whilst actually increasing taxes, the lack of focus on growth, the cowardice of just throwing our money at every problem that came along. And, of course, the moral turpitude and performative cruelty of the Rwanda policy. It's been terrible but I still can't believe more than 15% of my fellow citizens are going to vote for Reform.
Fifteen percent or so is what UKIP have been scoring in Euro elections since about 2004. There's a market for what they promise. (And I can see why what they promise is popular, it's just that it's contradictory nonsense.) On top of that, the Conservatives promised a distinctly UKIP-y moon on a stick in 2019. That legitimised the desire for Faragey stuff without delivering it, because of its fundamental undeliverability.
And that's about the worst possible combination.
Let me offer an explanation for what is happening. For me the key question is: Do you think that the UK is:
a) basically fine with just a bit of tinkering round the edges required b) completely broken and in need of radical change
The Tories' problem is that having been in charge for 14 years they have to go for option a, and then end up looking ridiculous by claiming things like that taxes are going down. Labour's narrative has been that Britain is broken but the mistake they're making is by offering tinkering around the edges (this is what Blair did but the country was in a better place then). Reform and the Greens are offering radical change from the right and left respectively and this is why they are increasing in the polls. The LDs are a bit more in the middle
You say that what Reform offers is undeliverable,and I agree that it couldn't all be done in a single term but I would rather have a party that starts radical and then moderates in government, than a party, which is essentially offering no change.
In the express the readership is widely expecting farage to be the next PM 🙄🙄🙄 apparently they don't get fptp. But it worries me, as the disappointment will be huge when they end up with 3-5 seats...
Admirable honesty from the always interesting and polite @HYUFD. If he would take 71 seats if offered it, I might have to rethink my view that this won’t (can’t) be better for Labour than Sir Tony’s shift in 97.
I don't think this Yougov poll means much, the Tories are actually unchanged from the last Yougov, the main swing from Labour and LD to Reform. Just Yougov like to be the pollster with the big shock polls as they did in 2014 when they were the first and one of the only pollsters to have Yes ahead.
Tories are sub 20 with 4 pollsters. Its over. They will disintegrate over the next 3 weeks. I cant see them being the opposition.
Yes. Lets pull this movement apart: 1) Labour are shedding the soft vote that had herded into their column. Losing a few to Green, more to LibDem, some to Reform. That will reduce the number of seats they win and the majorities they get in those seats 2) LibDems are getting a lot of attention and people like what they see. Not relevant nationally, but the target seats focus and the willingness to vote tactically will pay out. I know the party is playing it down citing past elections, but Sarah Olney's tale of woe last night is a tale of elections past, not the one in front of us 3) Reform are transformed - the Nigel has doubled their support and the Tory dam is breaking. That Jenkyns leaflet won't be the only one. Once the dam breaks properly the surge of Tory votes to Reform is unstoppable now - watch the flow accelerate the closer we get to polling day 4) Sorry Tories, its the end. Nobody is listening to you, and the bits they hear they laugh at - openly, to your face.
Unless something radical happens to abruptly reverse it, this is going to be the biggest electoral shift for a century. The Tories have launched the manifesto now, its not going to pull a Farage-shooting rabbit out of the hat. And "don't give Labour a super-majority?" Not remotely enough when voters are now heading off to spread their votes about away from Labour.
I know that ELE is "it couldn't happen here". But it IS. Look. Listen. Think. What possibly can avert it now? Fear of that anodyne Labour offer? Fear of Farage? A sudden "poor Rishi lets vote for him after all" movement?
I have no clue what that means for seats. It's going to be fun.
I mean this in the nicest possible way:
You must be shitting yourself you might actually win
Rochdale would make an above average MP, I think ?
(Admittedly that’s not the highest of bars.)
Oh I hope he does. Actually as (part of being) a kid I didn't live very far away from his seat - village/town called Cullen.
But I doubt Mrs Rochdale thought he would win when she gave him permission to run. I'm just making that sentence up though based on what most marriages are like. Who knows. It's a bit unfair cause he surely cannot be expected to answer anyway. So I'll leave it there
Cullen is IN the seat. Hustings there next Thursday! We've been promised an appearance by the Ross.
Do you ever get confused, whether you're in North Aberdeenshire OR East Moray? Or is it East Aberdeenshire and North Moray? AND how do you tell for sure?
Lead on MacDuff!
I created an acronym on day 1 - ANME. My problem is pronunciation. Depending which part of the country you are from our local places - my village included - are pronounced very differently.
As an incomer - and Cyber Nats are already telling me to fuck off out of their town / country - I want to get pronunciations as balanced as I can.
Go with MENA. That won't be confused with anything else...😁
I think it was about 2 and a half weeks ago I asked PB to try to think through the implications if the polls were repeated on election day. I was a little frustrated no one really took me up on that thought experiment. Yet here we are. And they are even more outlandish. We need to coin a word that is the antonym of swingback.
I don't think this Yougov poll means much, the Tories are actually unchanged from the last Yougov, the main swing from Labour and LD to Reform. Just Yougov like to be the pollster with the big shock polls as they did in 2014 when they were the first and one of the only pollsters to have Yes ahead.
It doesn't if judging rationally. But politicians and voters aren't entirely rational animals.
Under FPTP the big two generally have a self-righting mechanism which means that even if they are genuinely loathed or feared and face an insurgent (Tories 97, Labour 2010, and in opposition in 83 or 2019) they can usually rely on being the main opposition to the other lot its voters hate more to put a floor under even a bad defeat.
There's a tipping point where people stop believing that's the case and disaster follows as voters stop seeing it as rational to vote Labour or Tory to stop the other lot.
Most likely it merely creates confusion and limits any Tory comeback based on disgruntled voters coming home- like the Lib Dems briefly surging in 2010 or 2019 did to Labour.
But if it actually persists in this campaign, other pollsters show it and Reform campaign effectively (some pretty big ifs) then it's a potential disaster.
So it could be important if it endures. Even if it's really only noise. Just because the more Reform-curious Tories believe the Tories genuinely are toast and voting Reform really might bring about a political earthquake. The less reason they have to go home to the Tories because they don't like Starmer or Labour.
It could also provoke panic if Tory politicians start fighting or giving up rather than parking their differences for the moment and trying to just get through the election.
Why is Labours manifesto called “change” when they want to keep basicly everything exactly the same?
Thank you. I'm glad we're still seeing this side of the Schrodinger's Labour narrative. They are at the same time going to do nothing at all different AND usher in a new Soviet dawn.
I don't think this Yougov poll means much, the Tories are actually unchanged from the last Yougov, the main swing from Labour and LD to Reform. Just Yougov like to be the pollster with the big shock polls as they did in 2014 when they were the first and one of the only pollsters to have Yes ahead.
Question - is 71 seats to just cling on as HM Official Opposition now the top end of expectations?
Yes I would take that now
All joking aside, I have some sympathy for your predicament, still, I am mildly shocked that even a fervent Tory loyalist like you is prepared to admit disaster is staring the party in the face even before a single vote is cast.
Comments
In fact putting tonight's Yougov into Electoral Calculus puts the Tories still ahead of the LDs as main opposition on 71 seats to 69 and massively still ahead of Reform, still projected to get just 5 seats
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=18&LAB=37&LIB=14&Reform=19&Green=7&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=17&SCOTLAB=36.8&SCOTLIB=8.4&SCOTReform=1.9&SCOTGreen=1.4&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=31.1&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase
A ferfuxsake of crossovers?
YouGov 18-19/Jun/2019
BXP 23
LD 21
Lab 20
Con 20
So, no big deal
Club cricket team chase down target in one ball
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/cricket/2024/06/03/checkley-cricket-club-team-chase-target-one-ball-wedgwood/
And then be devoured by it.
Rayner allowed a 2nd question, Flynn not
Shouting allowed all over
Interruptions makes most of it unbearable
Bring back BGT
This is over.
For the love of god put Sunak out of his misery and let Starmer/Rayner start crowing about the new dawn.
(Or at least it used to be.)
"A fire has broken out at the Sukhoi Design Bureau in Moscow, one of Russia's leading aircraft development companies."
Oh dear. What a shame.
Looks all weird and lemony in the white shirt?
The best hope for the Tories to win back younger voters is opposition, younger voters almost always swing against the government
https://x.com/CharaspowerAI/status/1801257086115811354
As an incomer - and Cyber Nats are already telling me to fuck off out of their town / country - I want to get pronunciations as balanced as I can.
I'd perhaps expect the 60s and 70s housing to be Reform territory, since they are usually older people who have lived here a long time, likely to be owner occupiers, and less transient. That is, mainly C1/C2.
Unusual for him.
You can either see it as loopy, or admirable.
https://x.com/ritapanahi/status/1801329917327773789?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
Any further collapse will be mitigated.
Folk at the counts were pretty certain Labour won on the day in 2017.
"It's just a flesh wound!"
Our economy has generated a large number of such voters over the last few decades.
Now I don't think the right have solutions to these peoples problems, but I am glad I live in a country which has a democratic system which allows such people to have their voices heard.
I still think Con about 125 or so.
If he should win a seat at Westminster this time, do you honestly see him sticking around doing mundane constituency work day in and day out?
And the fact they are promising so much indicates the Tories don't think they will have to deliver on it either.
2) Erm….
*ones that fall apart when examined and costed.
Sounds great to me!
That’s one of the saddest of all the videos I’ve seen. He’s just pitiable now, it cannot be fun, his wife needs to do the right thing. Imagine him trying to last til 2028??
The way Macron then Meloni have to rescue him, Jeez. This is the President of the USA!
(I also think you're wrong by the way. I strongly suspect on the day itself enough people will vote Tory through gritted teeth cf @DavidL that they'll get 120-150 seats at least.)
Although they might get you for the Planning Permission under the "Engineering Operation" category, which needs it.
I'll get her back by mentioning Monty Don, again.
However if you want PM Farage if Reform overtake the Tories on votes and seats that is what you will eventually get within a decade if they do. And from your perspective it would be a nasty, nasty, nasty government that would make you wishing for the days of Sunak and Cameron! Leon would love it of course!
Second Anglo-Saxon Heptarchy.
If you limit immigration that much, you either have to push on birth rates or create a vision that moves on from our obsession with GDP growth (at our level of development a lot of it will always be population growth).
There’s actually something to be said for that moving on from GDP. But it’s more of a green policy really.
a) basically fine with just a bit of tinkering round the edges required
b) completely broken and in need of radical change
The Tories' problem is that having been in charge for 14 years they have to go for option a, and then end up looking ridiculous by claiming things like that taxes are going down.
Labour's narrative has been that Britain is broken but the mistake they're making is by offering tinkering around the edges (this is what Blair did but the country was in a better place then).
Reform and the Greens are offering radical change from the right and left respectively and this is why they are increasing in the polls.
The LDs are a bit more in the middle
You say that what Reform offers is undeliverable,and I agree that it couldn't all be done in a single term but I would rather have a party that starts radical and then moderates in government, than a party, which is essentially offering no change.
What’s the appeal of penny ? She’s not rishi !
I was a little frustrated no one really took me up on that thought experiment.
Yet here we are. And they are even more outlandish.
We need to coin a word that is the antonym of swingback.
Under FPTP the big two generally have a self-righting mechanism which means that even if they are genuinely loathed or feared and face an insurgent (Tories 97, Labour 2010, and in opposition in 83 or 2019) they can usually rely on being the main opposition to the other lot its voters hate more to put a floor under even a bad defeat.
There's a tipping point where people stop believing that's the case and disaster follows as voters stop seeing it as rational to vote Labour or Tory to stop the other lot.
Most likely it merely creates confusion and limits any Tory comeback based on disgruntled voters coming home- like the Lib Dems briefly surging in 2010 or 2019 did to Labour.
But if it actually persists in this campaign, other pollsters show it and Reform campaign effectively (some pretty big ifs) then it's a potential disaster.
So it could be important if it endures. Even if it's really only noise. Just because the more Reform-curious Tories believe the Tories genuinely are toast and voting Reform really might bring about a political earthquake. The less reason they have to go home to the Tories because they don't like Starmer or Labour.
It could also provoke panic if Tory politicians start fighting or giving up rather than parking their differences for the moment and trying to just get through the election.