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Kaboom! Is Sunak the Tory David Lloyd George? – politicalbetting.com
Kaboom! Is Sunak the Tory David Lloyd George? – politicalbetting.com
The YouGov survey for The Times found that support for Reform had increased by two points to 19 per cent while the Tories were unchanged on 18 per cent.Overall Labour retained a 19-point lead over the Conservatives, while the Liberal Democrats were down one point at 14 per cent
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Rishi Sunak is no David Lloyd George.
Truss gave us the mini budget cluster***k
Rishi isn't a good communicator.
Edit: I forgot to mention that Brexit split the Tories.
This is the mid campaign version of the Cleggasm. They’ll fall back again in due course.
Labereen 58
Since we are seemingly adding party scores together now!
Also, I think Yougov have got quite a good record of noticing paradigm changes.
Time for the 7 way bunfight though...
Given how many things you can have a pop at him over, making absolute rubbish up feels a bit needless - the bloke turns up to every debate he can, answers every half an hour of questions at every press event from all angles. It's the mainstream which tries to dodge scrutiny - he's just looking for any publicity he can get - and frankly coming under fire from left wing journalists helps his cause.
Tactical vote klaxon.
Problems other Tories identified as needing fixing, Sunak has pandered to extremists to stand in their way and block even modest reforms.
Hunt to give him his due has tried to make things better, but by doing the opposite of Sunak.
I think a box of chocolates might be a good option for a Labour-style snack. "Labour is like a box of chocolates. You never know what you're gonna get." They've given precious little away in the manifesto...
Rishi Sunak has been higher tax, bigger state, than Gordon Brown.
Farage could not have hoped for betting timing. Tonight’s debate should be 100% him saying “I’m the only hope you have, Tory voters”
AIUI, the FTPA was the only instance of it ever being required. It has no place in our Constitution, therefore shouldn't be in our discourse.
And if the DM, Express and (unlikely; but given they’ve gone off a cliff, not impossible) Telegraph jump ship and endorse Farage, then…
Lab: 37% (-1)
Reform: 19% (+2)
Con: 18% (nc)
Lib Dem: 14% (-1)
Green: 7 (-1)
SNP: 3 (+1)
Plaid: 1 (nc)
Other: 2 (+1)
Loving the 37% landslide mainly because i am on Lab less than 12.9m votes but also because democracy is fooked
But SKS's personal ratings are still going up, intriguing.
Baxtered:
Labour: 375
Reform: 127
LDs: 67
Con: 39
Starmer is PM. Farage is the LOTO
By the election of 2028 the rump of the Tories have been absorbed into Reform and Farage becomes PM
Or maybe voters just give their vote out as they see fit at each election and get a fresh vote for the next election?
The prime minister said he was “disappointed” with the behaviour of Craig Williams, which was revealed in the Guardian, but neither would be drawn on whether they had discussed the date of the election prior to the bet being placed.
The watchdog has now asked bookmakers to provide information on all substantial bets on the timing of the election after odds shortened on a July poll in the week before the date was announced.
Williams, who is standing for re-election in Montgomeryshire and Glyndŵr, placed a £100 bet with Ladbrokes on a July poll. The Gambling Commission launched an inquiry after the bet was referred to them by the bookmaker.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/13/bookmakers-told-to-find-all-substantial-bets-placed-on-july-poll-after-sunak-aides-flutter
If they get 2 dozen there are certain to be swivel-eyed loons amongst them with Fash friends, and soon falling out with each other and Nigel.
If they get none then Farage will deflate and rage from the sidelines and ineligible to lead a Con Ref merger.
Perhaps worse of all would be 2 dozen, but Farage not amongst them.
But the trend is the same, Labour has lost ground, it's just whether it's from 40 to 37 or from 48 to 45 to 42.
Will it contain the eyewatering spending cuts that Tice proposed?
Along with the slashing of NHS waiting lists?
And tax cuts?
Paid for by a cull of Diversity Officers?
(So I guess it's a possibility, yeah.)
Generally the reason for putting stuff in the manifesto is either because you think it will be popular or because if you don't put it in then people will attack you for a lack of detail/honesty.
If you are already odds on to win as Labour are then really putting stuff into the manifesto is either likely to drive some voters away or it binds you into things you would really rather not do. It also limits what you can do after the election.
The ideal for any party coming ionto Givernment is to have as little in the manifesto as possible to tie your hands so you can do exactly what you want once you are in power.
It is a risk but I think in this case one that Labour are justified in taking. I am sure I will hate 95% of what they do after the election but looking at it rationally I can't fault their strategy right now.
One of the biggest problems facing the country today is the crippling lack of houses and growth, Sunak disgracefully stood in the way of even the modest amount of construction happening by reversing the mandatory housing targets in December 2022.
It’s a lark
However I now give Reform at least a 10-20% chance of doing something remarkable in this election, like getting a larger popular vote than the Tories
David Lloyd George was not a Liberal when he was PM. He was suspended from the party in 1916 following his coup against Asquith and not readmitted until 1923.
Edit. Leon's also made the obvious point.
He’s a formidable campaigner (he’d probably be a shite prime minister unless he can delegate)
Two options - some Tories are sufficiently scared at the party being destroyed that they return home to prevent that. Or the spiral continues.
I'm holding firm at 100-125 Tory seats. For now. If this is the score next week, it's sub 100.
I was going to originally say the last Liberal to be PM but Churchill complicated that.
https://x.com/Dylan_Difford/status/1801334462581497957
We need Survation to settle this
Of course it won’t be straightforward, but last week people were saying the same about Crossover.
We are in uncharted territory and uncharted things could happen.
Chatting to a friend tonight where his street is blighted by a traveller take-over-and-develop-land-illegally problem. It's a genuine problem, of which I will say no more here.
He says his street is pretty much a Reform zone, since Lee Anderson has been giving them attention even now. He is not happy about Farage's Trump enthusiasm, and on Trump and the Republicult he is getting on for as contemptuous as I am.
Just popping out for an evening cycle around a couple of estates to see what placards are around.
Someone like Lisa Nandy could be vulnerable.