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Kaboom! Is Sunak the Tory David Lloyd George? – politicalbetting.com

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  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    Nigelb said:

    Tories are sub 20 with 4 pollsters. Its over. They will disintegrate over the next 3 weeks. I cant see them being the opposition.

    Yes. Lets pull this movement apart:
    1) Labour are shedding the soft vote that had herded into their column. Losing a few to Green, more to LibDem, some to Reform. That will reduce the number of seats they win and the majorities they get in those seats
    2) LibDems are getting a lot of attention and people like what they see. Not relevant nationally, but the target seats focus and the willingness to vote tactically will pay out. I know the party is playing it down citing past elections, but Sarah Olney's tale of woe last night is a tale of elections past, not the one in front of us
    3) Reform are transformed - the Nigel has doubled their support and the Tory dam is breaking. That Jenkyns leaflet won't be the only one. Once the dam breaks properly the surge of Tory votes to Reform is unstoppable now - watch the flow accelerate the closer we get to polling day
    4) Sorry Tories, its the end. Nobody is listening to you, and the bits they hear they laugh at - openly, to your face.

    Unless something radical happens to abruptly reverse it, this is going to be the biggest electoral shift for a century. The Tories have launched the manifesto now, its not going to pull a Farage-shooting rabbit out of the hat. And "don't give Labour a super-majority?" Not remotely enough when voters are now heading off to spread their votes about away from Labour.

    I know that ELE is "it couldn't happen here". But it IS. Look. Listen. Think. What possibly can avert it now? Fear of that anodyne Labour offer? Fear of Farage? A sudden "poor Rishi lets vote for him after all" movement?

    I have no clue what that means for seats. It's going to be fun.
    I mean this in the nicest possible way:

    You must be shitting yourself you might actually win :D
    Rochdale would make an above average MP, I think ?

    (Admittedly that’s not the highest of bars.)
    Oh I hope he does. Actually as (part of being) a kid I didn't live very far away from his seat - village/town called Cullen.

    But I doubt Mrs Rochdale thought he would win when she gave him permission to run. I'm just making that sentence up though based on what most marriages are like. Who knows. It's a bit unfair cause he surely cannot be expected to answer anyway. So I'll leave it there :wink:
    Cullen is IN the seat. Hustings there next Thursday! We've been promised an appearance by the Ross.
    Do you ever get confused, whether you're in North Aberdeenshire OR East Moray? Or is it East Aberdeenshire and North Moray? AND how do you tell for sure?

    Lead on MacDuff!
    I created an acronym on day 1 - ANME. My problem is pronunciation. Depending which part of the country you are from our local places - my village included - are pronounced very differently.

    As an incomer - and Cyber Nats are already telling me to fuck off out of their town / country - I want to get pronunciations as balanced as I can.
    ANME - pronounced "anime"?

    Regarding pronunciation, try putting an extra "f" when you say Banff = "ban'f'f". Or rather, always say one more "f" than whomever you're bandying words with does.

    (Perhaps you should clear that with Malcolm f'first?)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,874
    edited June 13

    HYUFD said:

    biggles said:

    If the Tom Tugendhat’s of this world are in charge, 100 is enough to rebuild on.

    If it’s Suella Braverman or Robert Jenrick, in future years they will be able to look back on when they were able to get 100.
    If its Braverman or Jenrick the Tories will likely merge with Reform within 5 years if we keep FPTP
    Would you join them, or would that be a step too far?
    Reluctantly yes, I am still more of a Conservative than LD (who based on their manifesto are back to a Charles Kennedy social democratic rather than Cleggite Orange Book party which I might be able to support) and I could never join Labour. So I suppose I would probably just have to accept Farage as my party leader with Braverman or Jenrick as Deputy (Mogg I assume would get a senior role too).

    I would prefer we remain a separate party though, ironically PR probably makes that more likely than FPTP if the Tories fall under 100 seats
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479

    In the express the readership is widely expecting farage to be the next PM 🙄🙄🙄 apparently they don't get fptp. But it worries me, as the disappointment will be huge when they end up with 3-5 seats...

    There was talk of them storming Westminster earlier, Capitol Hill style
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,125
    edited June 13
    My biggest surprise is how long it took for people to realise the obvious; that Sunak was terrible at politics and would likely fall further during an election campaign.

    Wet centrists will own this coming defeat for a long time.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,616
    Mortimer said:

    My biggest surprise is how long it took for people to realise the obvious; that Sunak was terrible at politics and would likely fall further during an election campaign.

    Wet centrists will own this coming defeat for a long time.

    He is wet, but not centrist.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,968
    If the Tories go further right, Labour get dragged left, with Lib Dem seem to have given up on Orange Booking...where does on go if they are centre / centre right on economics and liberal on social issues....asking for a friend.
  • Mortimer said:

    My biggest surprise is how long it took for people to realise the obvious; that Sunak was terrible at politics and would likely fall further during an election campaign.

    Wet centrists will own this coming defeat for a long time.

    @CorrectHorseBattery said so in 2020 to much ridicule.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,691

    In the express the readership is widely expecting farage to be the next PM 🙄🙄🙄 apparently they don't get fptp. But it worries me, as the disappointment will be huge when they end up with 3-5 seats...

    There was talk of them storming Westminster earlier, Capitol Hill style
    They'll have to get past the PIN code on the care home doors first though.
  • TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 1,405
    biggles said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Biden just wanders off, causing consternation to other G7 leaders. This is a daily humiliation for the USA

    https://x.com/ritapanahi/status/1801329917327773789?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    I can only imagine what it is like day to day inside the White House. There is no way he is making any decisions.
    Indeed

    That’s one of the saddest of all the videos I’ve seen. He’s just pitiable now, it cannot be fun, his wife needs to do the right thing. Imagine him trying to last til 2028??

    The way Macron then Meloni have to rescue him, Jeez. This is the President of the USA!
    Look at Rishi’s face too. He’s worried. He’s just incapable of acting on it as usual.
    Cast your mind back to the Tory leadership debates. There was a time when the presenter fainted and he'd turned into Superrishi for a moment.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,837
    Mortimer said:

    My biggest surprise is how long it took for people to realise the obvious; that Sunak was terrible at politics and would likely fall further during an election campaign.

    Wet centrists will own this coming defeat for a long time.

    And there's the inevitable punchline. We lost because we weren't extreme enough.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,541
    Nick Watt, Newsnight: not a single member of the cabinet has been heard saying the debate went well.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    Catching up with the seven-way mash up.

    Angela is surprisingly good.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,046
    edited June 13
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    biggles said:

    If the Tom Tugendhat’s of this world are in charge, 100 is enough to rebuild on.

    If it’s Suella Braverman or Robert Jenrick, in future years they will be able to look back on when they were able to get 100.
    If its Braverman or Jenrick the Tories will likely merge with Reform within 5 years if we keep FPTP
    Would you join them, or would that be a step too far?
    Reluctantly yes, I am still more of a Conservative than LD (who based on their manifesto are back to a social democratic rather than Orange Book party which I might be able to support) and I could never join Labour. So I suppose I would probably just have to accept Farage as my party leader with Braverman or Jenrick as Deputy.

    I would prefer we remain a separate party though, ironically PR probably makes that more likely than FPTP if the Tories fall under 100 seats
    At these levels there is zero change of Labour contemplating PR. It’s off the menu unless or until a tight LibLab win.
  • Leon said:

    biggles said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Biden just wanders off, causing consternation to other G7 leaders. This is a daily humiliation for the USA

    https://x.com/ritapanahi/status/1801329917327773789?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    I can only imagine what it is like day to day inside the White House. There is no way he is making any decisions.
    Indeed

    That’s one of the saddest of all the videos I’ve seen. He’s just pitiable now, it cannot be fun, his wife needs to do the right thing. Imagine him trying to last til 2028??

    The way Macron then Meloni have to rescue him, Jeez. This is the President of the USA!
    Look at Rishi’s face too. He’s worried. He’s just incapable of acting on it as usual.
    Respect to Meloni for having the emotional intelligence to smoothly gather him and make him appear vaguely sane. There are several videos like this from just this one G7 meeting. His decline seems to be accelerating and I’d say there’s a highly credible chance he won’t get the Nom. They just can’t risk a man in his cognitive condition
    Eh? Didn’t he go over to talk to that service person on the floor and then she said there’s a guy wanting to take photos over there? Whole load of nothing.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,046
    Mortimer said:

    My biggest surprise is how long it took for people to realise the obvious; that Sunak was terrible at politics and would likely fall further during an election campaign.

    Wet centrists will own this coming defeat for a long time.

    Yup. What the public really wants right now, in uncertain times, is for the PM to put a bit of stick about.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,937

    If the Tories go further right, Labour get dragged left, with Lib Dem seem to have given up on Orange Booking...where does on go if they are centre / centre right on economics and liberal on social issues....asking for a friend.

    Abroad. We go abroad.

    I've been looking at digital nomad-y stuff since Leon highlighted the new Thailand visa earlier this week.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,968
    I just saw Sunak getting his photo op with Zelenskyy. I wonder if he thought its fine to bugger off early from D-Day because I will be doing the world leader thing in a few days.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,013
    Leon said:

    biggles said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Biden just wanders off, causing consternation to other G7 leaders. This is a daily humiliation for the USA

    https://x.com/ritapanahi/status/1801329917327773789?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    I can only imagine what it is like day to day inside the White House. There is no way he is making any decisions.
    Indeed

    That’s one of the saddest of all the videos I’ve seen. He’s just pitiable now, it cannot be fun, his wife needs to do the right thing. Imagine him trying to last til 2028??

    The way Macron then Meloni have to rescue him, Jeez. This is the President of the USA!
    Look at Rishi’s face too. He’s worried. He’s just incapable of acting on it as usual.
    Respect to Meloni for having the emotional intelligence to smoothly gather him and make him appear vaguely sane. There are several videos like this from just this one G7 meeting. His decline seems to be accelerating and I’d say there’s a highly credible chance he won’t get the Nom. They just can’t risk a man in his cognitive condition
    Talking of Meloni fist fights broke out between the left and right in their parliament today
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    The ‘ask another round’ is pretty clever to be fair.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,125
    biggles said:

    Mortimer said:

    My biggest surprise is how long it took for people to realise the obvious; that Sunak was terrible at politics and would likely fall further during an election campaign.

    Wet centrists will own this coming defeat for a long time.

    Yup. What the public really wants right now, in uncertain times, is for the PM to put a bit of stick about.
    Step forward @FrancisUrquhart , your time is now!
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,397
    edited June 13
    Foxy said:

    Mortimer said:

    My biggest surprise is how long it took for people to realise the obvious; that Sunak was terrible at politics and would likely fall further during an election campaign.

    Wet centrists will own this coming defeat for a long time.

    He is wet, but not centrist.
    Yeah.
    The entire problem with the Tory Party is that it has become unmoored from where the centre is.
    Just look at the polls. The centre right now is the far left of the LD's or the extreme right of Labour.
    It's Liz Kendall.
    That's where the median voter sits.
    You've done fuck all to appeal to them. Starmer's done loads. So you don't deserve to win. Or come second.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479

    What is the hype around Mordaunt? She strikes me as another Sunak, a complete lightweight.

    Would you rather be washed up on a desert island with Penny, or with Rishi?
    Rishi is more likely to have access to a helicopter.
    Or own the island
  • TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 1,405
    Just applied for a postal vote. Dead easy except you have to upload a photo of your physical handwritten signature which seems a bit analog for 2024.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,691

    I just saw Sunak getting his photo op with Zelenskyy. I wonder if he thought its fine to bugger off early from D-Day because I will be doing the world leader thing in a few days.

    Too late. Starmer got his photo with Zelensky at D-Day event that Sunak ran away from in the manifesto.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,968
    edited June 13

    I just saw Sunak getting his photo op with Zelenskyy. I wonder if he thought its fine to bugger off early from D-Day because I will be doing the world leader thing in a few days.

    Too late. Starmer got his photo with Zelensky at D-Day event that Sunak ran away from in the manifesto.
    Well yes, its was moronic. But I was just trying to work out what in hell Sunak was thinking.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,895
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Techne

    LAB 43 (-1)
    CON 19 (-1)
    REF 16 (+1)
    LIB 11 (+1)
    GRN 6 (=0)
    SNP 2 (=0)

    F/W 12-13 June

    So straight away another poll still has the Tories ahead of Reform
    Come on. You can see the trend as well as we can. You're down to 19 and dropping. 3 weeks left and at this rate you're below them in 3 days.
    I can see Yougov like to spin the media narrative with a poll of Reform ahead of the Tories as they drove the narrative in 2014 with a poll with Yes ahead. They were always going to poll until they got that result, which they did by 1% with the Tory voteshare unchanged and with all other polls still having the Tories ahead of Reform.

    However if you want PM Farage if Reform overtake the Tories on votes and seats that is what you will eventually get within a decade if they do. And from your perspective it would be a nasty, nasty, nasty government that would make you wishing for the days of Sunak and Cameron! Leon would love it of course!
    It isn't about what I want. Its about what the voters want.

    And they don't want the Conservatives.
  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,292
    Mortimer said:

    My biggest surprise is how long it took for people to realise the obvious; that Sunak was terrible at politics and would likely fall further during an election campaign.

    Wet centrists will own this coming defeat for a long time.

    Sunak is more right-wing than Boris was.
    He's just shit.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,592
    Leon said:

    biggles said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Biden just wanders off, causing consternation to other G7 leaders. This is a daily humiliation for the USA

    https://x.com/ritapanahi/status/1801329917327773789?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    I can only imagine what it is like day to day inside the White House. There is no way he is making any decisions.
    Indeed

    That’s one of the saddest of all the videos I’ve seen. He’s just pitiable now, it cannot be fun, his wife needs to do the right thing. Imagine him trying to last til 2028??

    The way Macron then Meloni have to rescue him, Jeez. This is the President of the USA!
    Look at Rishi’s face too. He’s worried. He’s just incapable of acting on it as usual.
    Respect to Meloni for having the emotional intelligence to smoothly gather him and make him appear vaguely sane. There are several videos like this from just this one G7 meeting. His decline seems to be accelerating and I’d say there’s a highly credible chance he won’t get the Nom. They just can’t risk a man in his cognitive condition
    The way Meloni handled that looks more impressive on the second time of watching. She saw him wandering off and switched to the other side of the group and backed towards him to make the whole manouevre look as natural as possible.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    dixiedean said:

    The 18-24 YouGov subsample in full:

    LAB: 41%
    LD: 22%
    REF: 15%
    GRN: 8%
    CON: 7%

    What's the collective noun for a gathering of crossovers?
    A ferfuxsake of crossovers?
    Reckon "ferfuxsake" has better odds of ending up in OED than (for example) "noome"?

    Thanks to Rishi "Ferfuxsake" Sunak!
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    Penny is likeable but she really is rubbish. Feel sorry for her!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,874

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    I don't think this Yougov poll means much, the Tories are actually unchanged from the last Yougov, the main swing from Labour and LD to Reform. Just Yougov like to be the pollster with the big shock polls as they did in 2014 when they were the first and one of the only pollsters to have Yes ahead.

    In fact putting tonight's Yougov into Electoral Calculus puts the Tories still ahead of the LDs as main opposition on 71 seats to 69 and massively still ahead of Reform, still projected to get just 5 seats
    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=18&LAB=37&LIB=14&Reform=19&Green=7&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=17&SCOTLAB=36.8&SCOTLIB=8.4&SCOTReform=1.9&SCOTGreen=1.4&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=31.1&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase

    Con on 71 is a complete catastrophe for the most successful political party in British history
    It isn't, provided they stay main opposition, then Labour has to deal with the economy in government and they start to get the protest vote
    If this was the result then every by-election or defection could threaten the Tory's as official opposition.

    I still think Con about 125 or so.
    The Tories are just as likely to pick up Labour seats in by elections mid term of a Labour government than lose any to the LDs or Reform
    After 1997, the first Conservative by election gain was Crewe and Nantwich in May 2008.
    Yes but New Labour were gifted a better economic situation than Starmer's government will inherit, even if Sunak has reduced the worst of the Truss damage
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,046
    Farooq said:

    biggles said:

    Farooq said:

    bobbob said:

    Why is Labours manifesto called “change” when they want to keep basicly everything exactly the same?

    Thank you. I'm glad we're still seeing this side of the Schrodinger's Labour narrative. They are at the same time going to do nothing at all different AND usher in a new Soviet dawn.
    Well that’s generally what new Soviet leaders did…..
    Heh, but not really. If you know Soviet history, you know that's not often how it went down.
    Ooo now this is an interesting discussion. Lots of difference in the “who gets locked up or brutally murdered” sense. Past Stalin, less difference in real policy I would say (until the end).
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,580

    The Ed Davey video is priceless.

    For those that haven’t seen it… https://x.com/christiancalgie/status/1801268147749638260?s=61

    Yes but it's four years old. Interesting that it supports his current image suggesting that it is genuine.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,541

    I am not sure Sunak can fall any further but it hardly matters as nobody is listening to him

    Having said that when the 4th July arrives and the country expects a huge landslide do not be surprised if many conservatives hold their nose and vote for the party

    That's where my 25% theory comes from.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,125
    edited June 13

    Mortimer said:

    My biggest surprise is how long it took for people to realise the obvious; that Sunak was terrible at politics and would likely fall further during an election campaign.

    Wet centrists will own this coming defeat for a long time.

    Sunak is more right-wing than Boris was.
    He's just shit.
    I don't think Sunak is anything. I don't think he has any real idea what he believes in. That is half the problem and why people suggest wooden toys as a popular policy from the focus groups and he goes with it.

    One moment he is putting up NI and introducing NI++, next he is promising to abolish it.
    The problem with those who seem to stand for nothing, is that they'll fall for anything...
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,046
    Mortimer said:

    biggles said:

    Mortimer said:

    My biggest surprise is how long it took for people to realise the obvious; that Sunak was terrible at politics and would likely fall further during an election campaign.

    Wet centrists will own this coming defeat for a long time.

    Yup. What the public really wants right now, in uncertain times, is for the PM to put a bit of stick about.
    Step forward @FrancisUrquhart , your time is now!
    We might well think that, but I’m sure he can’t possibly comment.
  • dixiedean said:

    Mortimer said:

    My biggest surprise is how long it took for people to realise the obvious; that Sunak was terrible at politics and would likely fall further during an election campaign.

    Wet centrists will own this coming defeat for a long time.

    @CorrectHorseBattery said so in 2020 to much ridicule.
    What a visionary he was. If only his wisdom were still around.
    I agree, it's a big shame. I am a lesser being, just a battery but I am doing my best to be "him".
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,125
    Andy_JS said:

    I am not sure Sunak can fall any further but it hardly matters as nobody is listening to him

    Having said that when the 4th July arrives and the country expects a huge landslide do not be surprised if many conservatives hold their nose and vote for the party

    That's where my 25% theory comes from.
    I wondered the same. Until my Thatcherite father started talking about voting for Starmer...
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,767

    Perhaps Sunak and Macron could do a secret deal to merge the UK and France and cancel their respective elections pending the formation of a joint government.

    Didn't Churchill suggest that in 1940?
  • TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 1,405

    What is the hype around Mordaunt? She strikes me as another Sunak, a complete lightweight.

    Would you rather be washed up on a desert island with Penny, or with Rishi?
    Rishi is more likely to have access to a helicopter.
    Or own the island
    0r a hedge fund domiciled on it.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,592

    Perhaps Sunak and Macron could do a secret deal to merge the UK and France and cancel their respective elections pending the formation of a joint government.

    Didn't Churchill suggest that in 1940?
    Desperate times call for desperate measures.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,128
    edited June 13
    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    Mortimer said:

    My biggest surprise is how long it took for people to realise the obvious; that Sunak was terrible at politics and would likely fall further during an election campaign.

    Wet centrists will own this coming defeat for a long time.

    He is wet, but not centrist.
    Yeah.
    The entire problem with the Tory Party is that it has become unmoored from where the centre is.
    Just look at the polls. The centre right now is the far left of the LD's or the extreme right of Labour.
    It's Liz Kendall.
    That's where the median voter sits.
    You've done fuck all to appeal to them. Starmer's done loads. So you don't deserve to win. Or come second.
    I wouldn't personally agree that the median voter sits on the centre right, because people are too contradictory.

    He or she might have the views on business of Liz Kendall or Ed Davey, but the views on spending of Ed Miliband, or even Jeremy Corbyn.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,046
    Barnesian said:

    The Ed Davey video is priceless.

    For those that haven’t seen it… https://x.com/christiancalgie/status/1801268147749638260?s=61

    Yes but it's four years old. Interesting that it supports his current image suggesting that it is genuine.
    I’m wondering whether someone will confront him with a post-master before the election is done. Won’t look so cuddly then. Especially not if it’s Bates.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,044
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Biden just wanders off, causing consternation to other G7 leaders. This is a daily humiliation for the USA

    https://x.com/ritapanahi/status/1801329917327773789?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    I can only imagine what it is like day to day inside the White House. There is no way he is making any decisions.
    Indeed

    That’s one of the saddest of all the videos I’ve seen. He’s just pitiable now, it cannot be fun, his wife needs to do the right thing. Imagine him trying to last til 2028??

    The way Macron then Meloni have to rescue him, Jeez. This is the President of the USA!
    There could have been people out of shot he was giving the thumbs up too, though to be honest he could be a brain dead corpse with no pulse and still get 45-50% against Trump
    Even were he a brain dead corpse with no pulse, he’d deserve more than 50% against the rapist fraudster.
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 1,988

    I'm beginning to realise that I have woefully underestimated the amount of snacks I need for election night.

    What snacks do you think you will need?

    I think a box of chocolates might be a good option for a Labour-style snack. "Labour is like a box of chocolates. You never know what you're gonna get." They've given precious little away in the manifesto...
    Every box of chocolates I’ve bought has descriptions of each of the individual pieces. The main disappointment is that the pieces are getting smaller every year and the cost still goes up…
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,767

    Mortimer said:

    My biggest surprise is how long it took for people to realise the obvious; that Sunak was terrible at politics and would likely fall further during an election campaign.

    Wet centrists will own this coming defeat for a long time.

    Sunak is more right-wing than Boris was.
    He's just shit.
    I don't think Sunak is anything. I don't think he has any real idea what he believes in. That is half the problem and why people suggest wooden toys as a popular policy from the focus groups and he goes with it.

    One moment he is putting up NI and introducing NI++, next he is promising to abolish it.
    No, he was a Brexit supporter long before the referendum. He is a right winger who presents as a centrist.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,125

    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    Mortimer said:

    My biggest surprise is how long it took for people to realise the obvious; that Sunak was terrible at politics and would likely fall further during an election campaign.

    Wet centrists will own this coming defeat for a long time.

    He is wet, but not centrist.
    Yeah.
    The entire problem with the Tory Party is that it has become unmoored from where the centre is.
    Just look at the polls. The centre right now is the far left of the LD's or the extreme right of Labour.
    It's Liz Kendall.
    That's where the median voter sits.
    You've done fuck all to appeal to them. Starmer's done loads. So you don't deserve to win. Or come second.
    I wouldn't personally agree that the median voter sits on the centre right, because people are too contradictory.

    He or she might have the views on business of Liz Kendall or Ed Davey, but the views on spending of Ed Miliband, or even Jeremy Corbyn.
    I'm resigned to the liklihood of little fundamentally changing until something major happens. A war, or an IMF bailout.

    Too many (of all ages) have got used to the state providing. That is simply unsustainable given our demographics.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,984
    edited June 13

    I just saw Sunak getting his photo op with Zelenskyy. I wonder if he thought its fine to bugger off early from D-Day because I will be doing the world leader thing in a few days.

    Too late. Starmer got his photo with Zelensky at D-Day event that Sunak ran away from in the manifesto.
    Meeting Starmer will have been more important for Zelenskyy anyway. He’s had a series of Tory leaders who have been reliably supportive but he’s bound to be a bit nervous about a change of government with new priorities. So this along with presumably lots of back channel contact will have been reassuring.

    The smooth peaceful transition of power is one of Britain’s markers as a democratic Western society.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,397
    Andy_JS said:

    I am not sure Sunak can fall any further but it hardly matters as nobody is listening to him

    Having said that when the 4th July arrives and the country expects a huge landslide do not be surprised if many conservatives hold their nose and vote for the party

    That's where my 25% theory comes from.
    Wouldn't be surprised. And that would be seen as a bit of a Houdini recovery.
    But it would still be a historically catastrophic record breaking low for a governing Party.
    We live in interesting times!
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,209
    Foxy said:

    Mortimer said:

    My biggest surprise is how long it took for people to realise the obvious; that Sunak was terrible at politics and would likely fall further during an election campaign.

    Wet centrists will own this coming defeat for a long time.

    He is wet, but not centrist.
    Trouble is that @HYUFD is basically right. In the current configuration of the Conservative Party, Sunak is a wet centrist. Most of those to his left have walked or were pushed or are counting down the days to retirement.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,767

    Mortimer said:

    My biggest surprise is how long it took for people to realise the obvious; that Sunak was terrible at politics and would likely fall further during an election campaign.

    Wet centrists will own this coming defeat for a long time.

    Are you ever going to accept that Boris and Truss have their share of the responsibility ?

    Together with all the other Conservative politicians who have disgraced themselves during sine the last election ?

    If you think that Sunak is terrible at politics then what does that say of the rest of the Conservatives party that Sunak was the only person left standing after the previous leadership failings ?
    Sunak is being readied as the human sacrifice.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    edited June 13

    kyf_100 said:

    Admirable honesty from the always interesting and polite @HYUFD. If he would take 71 seats if offered it, I might have to rethink my view that this won’t (can’t) be better for Labour than Sir Tony’s shift in 97.

    HYUFD is one of the politest posters on this board and an absolute gent.

    But if he's willing to take 71 seats, it really is a ravens leaving the tower moment for the Conservatives.

    Which is sad, as I fear the Faragist insurgency that's to come will be infinitely worse, and prevent the emergence of a centre-right government for a decade or more.
    I am having similar sentiments. I find myself looking at the likes of Sunak and Penny on the telly, and the many PB Tories on here and think: do we really want to replace these good people with whom I disagree with Farage’s mob? Answer: No.
    The Tories need the wilderness years to reflect on why promising to limit migration then letting it soar into 7 figures was a bad idea. Same with levelling up, infrastructure, defence, and everything else they've reneged on. A total capture of the oldies by Farage may let a Canadian style Conservative party rise - there's plenty of young right wingers, just (almost) none of them vote Tory.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    PJH said:

    The 18-24 YouGov subsample in full:

    LAB: 41%
    LD: 22%
    REF: 15%
    GRN: 8%
    CON: 7%

    That supports my daughter's comment earlier about Embarrassing Dad Ed's antics cutting through in a positive way amongst her age group. I don't think any of them knew who he was before.
    You can get 6/1 at Ladbrokes that Ed will be fired from a cannon before the campaign is out
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,125

    Mortimer said:

    My biggest surprise is how long it took for people to realise the obvious; that Sunak was terrible at politics and would likely fall further during an election campaign.

    Wet centrists will own this coming defeat for a long time.

    Are you ever going to accept that Boris and Truss have their share of the responsibility ?

    Together with all the other Conservative politicians who have disgraced themselves during sine the last election ?

    If you think that Sunak is terrible at politics then what does that say of the rest of the Conservatives party that Sunak was the only person left standing after the previous leadership failings ?
    Oh absolutely, Boris and Truss failed as well.

    But Sunak has spent the last two years doing fundamentally unConservative things. Growing the state, increasing the tax burden, restricting liberty.

    He will not be remembered well by Conservative members.

    And I totally agree with you - it shows the Parliamentary party as poor ground politicians. They should have ensured there was a proper contest after Truss resigned. By failing to do so, and then failing to oust Sunak when it became obvious he wasn't up to it, many, perhaps most of them, will end up losing their seats.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,397
    edited June 13

    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    Mortimer said:

    My biggest surprise is how long it took for people to realise the obvious; that Sunak was terrible at politics and would likely fall further during an election campaign.

    Wet centrists will own this coming defeat for a long time.

    He is wet, but not centrist.
    Yeah.
    The entire problem with the Tory Party is that it has become unmoored from where the centre is.
    Just look at the polls. The centre right now is the far left of the LD's or the extreme right of Labour.
    It's Liz Kendall.
    That's where the median voter sits.
    You've done fuck all to appeal to them. Starmer's done loads. So you don't deserve to win. Or come second.
    I wouldn't personally agree that the median voter sits on the centre right, because people are too contradictory.

    He or she might have the views on business of Liz Kendall or Ed Davey, but the views on spending of Ed Miliband, or even Jeremy Corbyn.
    Sorry. Have just re read that. I wasn't clear. Change "centre right now" to "centre just now" and my point may become more apparent.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,046
    Mortimer said:

    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    Mortimer said:

    My biggest surprise is how long it took for people to realise the obvious; that Sunak was terrible at politics and would likely fall further during an election campaign.

    Wet centrists will own this coming defeat for a long time.

    He is wet, but not centrist.
    Yeah.
    The entire problem with the Tory Party is that it has become unmoored from where the centre is.
    Just look at the polls. The centre right now is the far left of the LD's or the extreme right of Labour.
    It's Liz Kendall.
    That's where the median voter sits.
    You've done fuck all to appeal to them. Starmer's done loads. So you don't deserve to win. Or come second.
    I wouldn't personally agree that the median voter sits on the centre right, because people are too contradictory.

    He or she might have the views on business of Liz Kendall or Ed Davey, but the views on spending of Ed Miliband, or even Jeremy Corbyn.
    I'm resigned to the liklihood of little fundamentally changing until something major happens. A war, or an IMF bailout.

    Too many (of all ages) have got used to the state providing. That is simply unsustainable given our demographics.
    I am a lot less pessimistic. I can see another technology driven productivity boost around the corner, and I do think living standards will rise again pretty soon.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,128
    Mortimer said:

    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    Mortimer said:

    My biggest surprise is how long it took for people to realise the obvious; that Sunak was terrible at politics and would likely fall further during an election campaign.

    Wet centrists will own this coming defeat for a long time.

    He is wet, but not centrist.
    Yeah.
    The entire problem with the Tory Party is that it has become unmoored from where the centre is.
    Just look at the polls. The centre right now is the far left of the LD's or the extreme right of Labour.
    It's Liz Kendall.
    That's where the median voter sits.
    You've done fuck all to appeal to them. Starmer's done loads. So you don't deserve to win. Or come second.
    I wouldn't personally agree that the median voter sits on the centre right, because people are too contradictory.

    He or she might have the views on business of Liz Kendall or Ed Davey, but the views on spending of Ed Miliband, or even Jeremy Corbyn.
    I'm resigned to the liklihood of little fundamentally changing until something major happens. A war, or an IMF bailout.

    Too many (of all ages) have got used to the state providing. That is simply unsustainable given our demographics.
    Well, not necessarily if people accept higher immigration.

    That's the key bee in their bonnet of Reform, obviously.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,232

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Biden just wanders off, causing consternation to other G7 leaders. This is a daily humiliation for the USA

    https://x.com/ritapanahi/status/1801329917327773789?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    I can only imagine what it is like day to day inside the White House. There is no way he is making any decisions.
    Indeed

    That’s one of the saddest of all the videos I’ve seen. He’s just pitiable now, it cannot be fun, his wife needs to do the right thing. Imagine him trying to last til 2028??

    The way Macron then Meloni have to rescue him, Jeez. This is the President of the USA!
    There could have been people out of shot he was giving the thumbs up too, though to be honest he could be a brain dead corpse with no pulse and still get 45-50% against Trump
    If it was a one off perhaps, but 2 days ago he forgot he shook somebodies hand within 30s and went to do it again and was totally confused when the person ignored it. Its a daily thing now.

    Leon said:

    biggles said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Biden just wanders off, causing consternation to other G7 leaders. This is a daily humiliation for the USA

    https://x.com/ritapanahi/status/1801329917327773789?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    I can only imagine what it is like day to day inside the White House. There is no way he is making any decisions.
    Indeed

    That’s one of the saddest of all the videos I’ve seen. He’s just pitiable now, it cannot be fun, his wife needs to do the right thing. Imagine him trying to last til 2028??

    The way Macron then Meloni have to rescue him, Jeez. This is the President of the USA!
    Look at Rishi’s face too. He’s worried. He’s just incapable of acting on it as usual.
    Respect to Meloni for having the emotional intelligence to smoothly gather him and make him appear vaguely sane. There are several videos like this from just this one G7 meeting. His decline seems to be accelerating and I’d say there’s a highly credible chance he won’t get the Nom. They just can’t risk a man in his cognitive condition
    Eh? Didn’t he go over to talk to that service person on the floor and then she said there’s a guy wanting to take photos over there? Whole load of nothing.
    Biden arriving at the G7

    https://x.com/mylordbebo/status/1801143195247526195?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Biden trying to give a speech at the G7

    https://x.com/stillgray/status/1801329462979793012?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    There are loads of vids from just this one summit
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,895

    I am not sure Sunak can fall any further but it hardly matters as nobody is listening to him

    Having said that when the 4th July arrives and the country expects a huge landslide do not be surprised if many conservatives hold their nose and vote for the party

    Its definitely possible. Hold your nose happens an awful lot.

    But, and its a big but.

    The remaining people still prone to vote Tory appear to want Farage and not Sunak or any of the 3rd rate Farage wannabes who may survive the electoral cull.

    If the current momentum continues - and its accelerating remember - then the stampede to back the Nigel will be similar to the GOP stampede to back Trump.
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    My biggest surprise is how long it took for people to realise the obvious; that Sunak was terrible at politics and would likely fall further during an election campaign.

    Wet centrists will own this coming defeat for a long time.

    Are you ever going to accept that Boris and Truss have their share of the responsibility ?

    Together with all the other Conservative politicians who have disgraced themselves during sine the last election ?

    If you think that Sunak is terrible at politics then what does that say of the rest of the Conservatives party that Sunak was the only person left standing after the previous leadership failings ?
    Oh absolutely, Boris and Truss failed as well.

    But Sunak has spent the last two years doing fundamentally unConservative things. Growing the state, increasing the tax burden, restricting liberty.

    He will not be remembered well by Conservative members.

    And I totally agree with you - it shows the Parliamentary party as poor ground politicians. They should have ensured there was a proper contest after Truss resigned. By failing to do so, and then failing to oust Sunak when it became obvious he wasn't up to it, many, perhaps most of them, will end up losing their seats.
    Did you vote for Truss in the first leadership election?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,125
    MJW said:

    Mortimer said:

    My biggest surprise is how long it took for people to realise the obvious; that Sunak was terrible at politics and would likely fall further during an election campaign.

    Wet centrists will own this coming defeat for a long time.

    Sunak isn't a "wet centrist" though. He's a weird combination of the things centrists can't stand about the Tory right, and the things the Tory right don't like about their party's self-described pragmatists.

    So pleases and understands no one.

    If the Tories do have a real disaster it's because they'll be a rare example of a party that managed to totally alienate both the moderate end of its voter coalition and its extreme end at the same time. Even Corbyn only managed one of those.
    This is an excellent comment. I'm a longtime member and Tory activist, so to me he seems a wet centrist.

    Sunak's terrible attempts at triangulation have pushed me to cheering on the coming defeat.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    MJW said:

    Mortimer said:

    My biggest surprise is how long it took for people to realise the obvious; that Sunak was terrible at politics and would likely fall further during an election campaign.

    Wet centrists will own this coming defeat for a long time.

    Sunak isn't a "wet centrist" though. He's a weird combination of the things centrists can't stand about the Tory right, and the things the Tory right don't like about their party's self-described pragmatists.

    So pleases and understands no one.

    If the Tories do have a real disaster it's because they'll be a rare example of a party that managed to totally alienate both the moderate end of its voter coalition and its extreme end at the same time. Even Corbyn only managed one of those.
    It's like someone triangulated the perfect man to annoy everyone. Enormously right wing rhetoric and left wing action annoys everyone equally.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,691

    Pet peeves.

    Why the fuck are the media (Sky and the Telegraph to start with today) harping on about Starmer's wife. The Telegraph have a whole headline about her not being at the manifesto launch. What does it matter? We are not electing a president and first lady. Whether or not she is taking any part in the campaign or living her own life is entirely her business and fuck all to do with the media.

    Starmer has not in any way 'used' his wife and family as other politicans have done in the past and until and unless he does the media should stay the fuck out of her life.

    Rant over. Apologies.

    It's desperation.

    Is there something? Anything. Something as small as an atom that we can throw at them?

  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,397
    Mortimer said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I am not sure Sunak can fall any further but it hardly matters as nobody is listening to him

    Having said that when the 4th July arrives and the country expects a huge landslide do not be surprised if many conservatives hold their nose and vote for the party

    That's where my 25% theory comes from.
    I wondered the same. Until my Thatcherite father started talking about voting for Starmer...
    I take it you've disinherited yourself?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    HYUFD said:

    The 18-24 YouGov subsample in full:

    LAB: 41%
    LD: 22%
    REF: 15%
    GRN: 8%
    CON: 7%

    Labour voteshare well down too on the 56% they got with that age group in 2019.

    The best hope for the Tories to win back younger voters is opposition, younger voters almost always swing against the government

    I would suggest consigning the idiotic national, service proposals to the WPB if that’s the aim
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    edited June 13

    Pet peeves.

    Why the fuck are the media (Sky and the Telegraph to start with today) harping on about Starmer's wife. The Telegraph have a whole headline about her not being at the manifesto launch. What does it matter? We are not electing a president and first lady. Whether or not she is taking any part in the campaign or living her own life is entirely her business and fuck all to do with the media.

    Starmer has not in any way 'used' his wife and family as other politicans have done in the past and until and unless he does the media should stay the fuck out of her life.

    Rant over. Apologies.

    They recon they have their dirt and they're determined to use it.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,125
    ping said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    My biggest surprise is how long it took for people to realise the obvious; that Sunak was terrible at politics and would likely fall further during an election campaign.

    Wet centrists will own this coming defeat for a long time.

    Are you ever going to accept that Boris and Truss have their share of the responsibility ?

    Together with all the other Conservative politicians who have disgraced themselves during sine the last election ?

    If you think that Sunak is terrible at politics then what does that say of the rest of the Conservatives party that Sunak was the only person left standing after the previous leadership failings ?
    Oh absolutely, Boris and Truss failed as well.

    But Sunak has spent the last two years doing fundamentally unConservative things. Growing the state, increasing the tax burden, restricting liberty.

    He will not be remembered well by Conservative members.

    And I totally agree with you - it shows the Parliamentary party as poor ground politicians. They should have ensured there was a proper contest after Truss resigned. By failing to do so, and then failing to oust Sunak when it became obvious he wasn't up to it, many, perhaps most of them, will end up losing their seats.
    Did you vote for Truss in the first leadership election?
    I did. I was very disappointed that her growth plans failed. I think we would probably both suggest that it was largely her own fault, however....
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,046
    Farooq said:

    biggles said:

    Farooq said:

    biggles said:

    Farooq said:

    bobbob said:

    Why is Labours manifesto called “change” when they want to keep basicly everything exactly the same?

    Thank you. I'm glad we're still seeing this side of the Schrodinger's Labour narrative. They are at the same time going to do nothing at all different AND usher in a new Soviet dawn.
    Well that’s generally what new Soviet leaders did…..
    Heh, but not really. If you know Soviet history, you know that's not often how it went down.
    Ooo now this is an interesting discussion. Lots of difference in the “who gets locked up or brutally murdered” sense. Past Stalin, less difference in real policy I would say (until the end).
    I don't think that's true apart from the Brezhnev era and his two very short-lived successors. Khrushchev and Gorbachev either side of that did transform things. As did Stalin, horribly. And Lenin before him, very notably indeed.
    Yeah, to be fair I was ignoring Khrushchev and the near end of the world.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264

    Pet peeves.

    Why the fuck are the media (Sky and the Telegraph to start with today) harping on about Starmer's wife. The Telegraph have a whole headline about her not being at the manifesto launch. What does it matter? We are not electing a president and first lady. Whether or not she is taking any part in the campaign or living her own life is entirely her business and fuck all to do with the media.

    Starmer has not in any way 'used' his wife and family as other politicans have done in the past and until and unless he does the media should stay the fuck out of her life.

    Rant over. Apologies.

    You know when the Press thought something was a great story but didn't want to touch it our of fear of legals? Well several disreputable outlets have hinted at that.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,691
    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Biden just wanders off, causing consternation to other G7 leaders. This is a daily humiliation for the USA

    https://x.com/ritapanahi/status/1801329917327773789?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    I can only imagine what it is like day to day inside the White House. There is no way he is making any decisions.
    Indeed

    That’s one of the saddest of all the videos I’ve seen. He’s just pitiable now, it cannot be fun, his wife needs to do the right thing. Imagine him trying to last til 2028??

    The way Macron then Meloni have to rescue him, Jeez. This is the President of the USA!
    There could have been people out of shot he was giving the thumbs up too, though to be honest he could be a brain dead corpse with no pulse and still get 45-50% against Trump
    If it was a one off perhaps, but 2 days ago he forgot he shook somebodies hand within 30s and went to do it again and was totally confused when the person ignored it. Its a daily thing now.

    Leon said:

    biggles said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Biden just wanders off, causing consternation to other G7 leaders. This is a daily humiliation for the USA

    https://x.com/ritapanahi/status/1801329917327773789?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    I can only imagine what it is like day to day inside the White House. There is no way he is making any decisions.
    Indeed

    That’s one of the saddest of all the videos I’ve seen. He’s just pitiable now, it cannot be fun, his wife needs to do the right thing. Imagine him trying to last til 2028??

    The way Macron then Meloni have to rescue him, Jeez. This is the President of the USA!
    Look at Rishi’s face too. He’s worried. He’s just incapable of acting on it as usual.
    Respect to Meloni for having the emotional intelligence to smoothly gather him and make him appear vaguely sane. There are several videos like this from just this one G7 meeting. His decline seems to be accelerating and I’d say there’s a highly credible chance he won’t get the Nom. They just can’t risk a man in his cognitive condition
    Eh? Didn’t he go over to talk to that service person on the floor and then she said there’s a guy wanting to take photos over there? Whole load of nothing.
    Biden arriving at the G7

    https://x.com/mylordbebo/status/1801143195247526195?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Biden trying to give a speech at the G7

    https://x.com/stillgray/status/1801329462979793012?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    There are loads of vids from just this one summit
    "It all leaves the president with one option that can be a win for America and, ultimately, his place in history. He can still choose not to run, to cede the field to a Democrat who can win — paging Josh Shapiro or Gretchen Whitmer — and do the hard and brave things it will take to secure security and peace for the free world.

    There’s still time, if only just. It would be a courageous, honorable and transformative legacy."

    Bret Stephens - NY Times.


    Not going to happen of course.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264

    Mortimer said:

    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    Mortimer said:

    My biggest surprise is how long it took for people to realise the obvious; that Sunak was terrible at politics and would likely fall further during an election campaign.

    Wet centrists will own this coming defeat for a long time.

    He is wet, but not centrist.
    Yeah.
    The entire problem with the Tory Party is that it has become unmoored from where the centre is.
    Just look at the polls. The centre right now is the far left of the LD's or the extreme right of Labour.
    It's Liz Kendall.
    That's where the median voter sits.
    You've done fuck all to appeal to them. Starmer's done loads. So you don't deserve to win. Or come second.
    I wouldn't personally agree that the median voter sits on the centre right, because people are too contradictory.

    He or she might have the views on business of Liz Kendall or Ed Davey, but the views on spending of Ed Miliband, or even Jeremy Corbyn.
    I'm resigned to the liklihood of little fundamentally changing until something major happens. A war, or an IMF bailout.

    Too many (of all ages) have got used to the state providing. That is simply unsustainable given our demographics.
    Well, not necessarily if people accept higher immigration.

    That's the key bee in their bonnet of Reform, obviously.
    There's little to no evidence the unis selling visas to aspiring deliveroo drivers has helped anything.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,046

    Pet peeves.

    Why the fuck are the media (Sky and the Telegraph to start with today) harping on about Starmer's wife. The Telegraph have a whole headline about her not being at the manifesto launch. What does it matter? We are not electing a president and first lady. Whether or not she is taking any part in the campaign or living her own life is entirely her business and fuck all to do with the media.

    Starmer has not in any way 'used' his wife and family as other politicans have done in the past and until and unless he does the media should stay the fuck out of her life.

    Rant over. Apologies.

    Are they? Oh FFS they aren’t using the Guido muck next week are they?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,585
    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    My biggest surprise is how long it took for people to realise the obvious; that Sunak was terrible at politics and would likely fall further during an election campaign.

    Wet centrists will own this coming defeat for a long time.

    Are you ever going to accept that Boris and Truss have their share of the responsibility ?

    Together with all the other Conservative politicians who have disgraced themselves during sine the last election ?

    If you think that Sunak is terrible at politics then what does that say of the rest of the Conservatives party that Sunak was the only person left standing after the previous leadership failings ?
    Oh absolutely, Boris and Truss failed as well.

    But Sunak has spent the last two years doing fundamentally unConservative things. Growing the state, increasing the tax burden, restricting liberty.

    He will not be remembered well by Conservative members.

    And I totally agree with you - it shows the Parliamentary party as poor ground politicians. They should have ensured there was a proper contest after Truss resigned. By failing to do so, and then failing to oust Sunak when it became obvious he wasn't up to it, many, perhaps most of them, will end up losing their seats.
    Growing the state ?

    Do you mean shovelling more money to the oldies ?

    Increasing the tax burden ?

    Do you realise how much this country is living beyond its means ?

    If you want a small state, low tax country you need to find a few hundred billion of spending cuts.

    Which means health cuts and pension cuts.

    Good luck getting the oldies to vote Conservative after doing that.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,580
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Biden just wanders off, causing consternation to other G7 leaders. This is a daily humiliation for the USA

    https://x.com/ritapanahi/status/1801329917327773789?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    I can only imagine what it is like day to day inside the White House. There is no way he is making any decisions.
    Indeed

    That’s one of the saddest of all the videos I’ve seen. He’s just pitiable now, it cannot be fun, his wife needs to do the right thing. Imagine him trying to last til 2028??

    The way Macron then Meloni have to rescue him, Jeez. This is the President of the USA!
    There could have been people out of shot he was giving the thumbs up too, though to be honest he could be a brain dead corpse with no pulse and still get 45-50% against Trump
    I think there some army men packing up the gear just in shot that he was walking towards. I suspect he was a bit bored, and as President he can what he damn well likes,
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,541
    Mortimer said:

    ping said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    My biggest surprise is how long it took for people to realise the obvious; that Sunak was terrible at politics and would likely fall further during an election campaign.

    Wet centrists will own this coming defeat for a long time.

    Are you ever going to accept that Boris and Truss have their share of the responsibility ?

    Together with all the other Conservative politicians who have disgraced themselves during sine the last election ?

    If you think that Sunak is terrible at politics then what does that say of the rest of the Conservatives party that Sunak was the only person left standing after the previous leadership failings ?
    Oh absolutely, Boris and Truss failed as well.

    But Sunak has spent the last two years doing fundamentally unConservative things. Growing the state, increasing the tax burden, restricting liberty.

    He will not be remembered well by Conservative members.

    And I totally agree with you - it shows the Parliamentary party as poor ground politicians. They should have ensured there was a proper contest after Truss resigned. By failing to do so, and then failing to oust Sunak when it became obvious he wasn't up to it, many, perhaps most of them, will end up losing their seats.
    Did you vote for Truss in the first leadership election?
    I did. I was very disappointed that her growth plans failed. I think we would probably both suggest that it was largely her own fault, however....
    She tried to do too much, too quickly. She had a full two and half years ahead of her before she had to call an election.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,968
    edited June 13
    Andy_JS said:

    Mortimer said:

    ping said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    My biggest surprise is how long it took for people to realise the obvious; that Sunak was terrible at politics and would likely fall further during an election campaign.

    Wet centrists will own this coming defeat for a long time.

    Are you ever going to accept that Boris and Truss have their share of the responsibility ?

    Together with all the other Conservative politicians who have disgraced themselves during sine the last election ?

    If you think that Sunak is terrible at politics then what does that say of the rest of the Conservatives party that Sunak was the only person left standing after the previous leadership failings ?
    Oh absolutely, Boris and Truss failed as well.

    But Sunak has spent the last two years doing fundamentally unConservative things. Growing the state, increasing the tax burden, restricting liberty.

    He will not be remembered well by Conservative members.

    And I totally agree with you - it shows the Parliamentary party as poor ground politicians. They should have ensured there was a proper contest after Truss resigned. By failing to do so, and then failing to oust Sunak when it became obvious he wasn't up to it, many, perhaps most of them, will end up losing their seats.
    Did you vote for Truss in the first leadership election?
    I did. I was very disappointed that her growth plans failed. I think we would probably both suggest that it was largely her own fault, however....
    She tried to do too much, too quickly. She had a full two and half years ahead of her before she had to call an election.
    It was also wrong end of the telescope....just cutting taxes will give you a sugar rush, but if you don't fix the productivity that sugar rush will crash and you will be putting them back up again.

    We have high taxes, because growth has been so poor, that revenues aren't increasing and debt is increasing, so taxes go up.

    We haven't had consistent periods of growth above 2% for about 20 years. 2% is your minimum to keep treading water against inflationary pressures.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,209
    MJW said:

    Mortimer said:

    My biggest surprise is how long it took for people to realise the obvious; that Sunak was terrible at politics and would likely fall further during an election campaign.

    Wet centrists will own this coming defeat for a long time.

    Sunak isn't a "wet centrist" though. He's a weird combination of the things centrists can't stand about the Tory right, and the things the Tory right don't like about their party's self-described pragmatists.

    So pleases and understands no one.

    If the Tories do have a real disaster it's because they'll be a rare example of a party that managed to totally alienate both the moderate end of its voter coalition and its extreme end at the same time. Even Corbyn only managed one of those.
    The odd thing is that Maggie got away with it, and the wet end of the party extended quite a bit further left in those days. Her talent as a politician? Different sort of threat from Socialists? Or has the old centre of the Conservative Party simply ceased to hold? Are the things that (say) Tugendhat and Braverman want incompatible in a way that wasn't true for (say) Patten and Ridley?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,691
    Muesli said:

    kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    So you’re in number 10, you call a snap election and three weeks later are now third. What do you do?

    Well, you've tried being aggressive. You've tried begging forgiveness. You've tried warning people if you lose too badly they won't like that.

    So you just parrot your lines and pray.
    What about another 2p off NI?

    That'll do it surely.

    Issue an addendum to their manifesto.
    If they keep pledging to cut 2p off every time they’re in a hole, they’ll end up paying us National Insurance. And still lose.
    Actually. This is brilliant. This will save them at the last minute.

    The Tax Refund.

    We will pay you next year the equivalent you would have paid in tax.

    It'll massively kick start the economy and private schools would be saved.

  • PJHPJH Posts: 643
    IanB2 said:

    PJH said:

    The 18-24 YouGov subsample in full:

    LAB: 41%
    LD: 22%
    REF: 15%
    GRN: 8%
    CON: 7%

    That supports my daughter's comment earlier about Embarrassing Dad Ed's antics cutting through in a positive way amongst her age group. I don't think any of them knew who he was before.
    You can get 6/1 at Ladbrokes that Ed will be fired from a cannon before the campaign is out
    I won't take that unless you have inside information!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,874

    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    Mortimer said:

    My biggest surprise is how long it took for people to realise the obvious; that Sunak was terrible at politics and would likely fall further during an election campaign.

    Wet centrists will own this coming defeat for a long time.

    He is wet, but not centrist.
    Yeah.
    The entire problem with the Tory Party is that it has become unmoored from where the centre is.
    Just look at the polls. The centre right now is the far left of the LD's or the extreme right of Labour.
    It's Liz Kendall.
    That's where the median voter sits.
    You've done fuck all to appeal to them. Starmer's done loads. So you don't deserve to win. Or come second.
    I wouldn't personally agree that the median voter sits on the centre right, because people are too contradictory.

    He or she might have the views on business of Liz Kendall or Ed Davey, but the views on spending of Ed Miliband, or even Jeremy Corbyn.
    And the views of Farage on immigration
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,633
    The challenging thing for Conservatives to grasp is that’s it’s not just Sunak. It’s deeper than that.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,512
    Foxy said:

    What is the hype around Mordaunt? She strikes me as another Sunak, a complete lightweight.

    Would you rather be washed up on a desert island with Penny, or with Rishi?
    It's a no brainer. Penny strikes me as versatile, and could build and sail a boat.
    Yeah but knowing my luck she'd build one just big enough for herself and sail off without me. :smile:
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,548
    You want a black swan before voting happens?

    The Russian banking sector seems to be collapsing...
  • GarethoftheVale2GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 2,240
    ping said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    My biggest surprise is how long it took for people to realise the obvious; that Sunak was terrible at politics and would likely fall further during an election campaign.

    Wet centrists will own this coming defeat for a long time.

    Are you ever going to accept that Boris and Truss have their share of the responsibility ?

    Together with all the other Conservative politicians who have disgraced themselves during sine the last election ?

    If you think that Sunak is terrible at politics then what does that say of the rest of the Conservatives party that Sunak was the only person left standing after the previous leadership failings ?
    Oh absolutely, Boris and Truss failed as well.

    But Sunak has spent the last two years doing fundamentally unConservative things. Growing the state, increasing the tax burden, restricting liberty.

    He will not be remembered well by Conservative members.

    And I totally agree with you - it shows the Parliamentary party as poor ground politicians. They should have ensured there was a proper contest after Truss resigned. By failing to do so, and then failing to oust Sunak when it became obvious he wasn't up to it, many, perhaps most of them, will end up losing their seats.
    Did you vote for Truss in the first leadership election?
    One of the interesting things which will hopefully come out after the election is whether there was tactical voting against Mordaunt as they thought Truss would be easier to beat. I can't imagine that Morduant would have done any worse.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,046
    edited June 13

    MJW said:

    Mortimer said:

    My biggest surprise is how long it took for people to realise the obvious; that Sunak was terrible at politics and would likely fall further during an election campaign.

    Wet centrists will own this coming defeat for a long time.

    Sunak isn't a "wet centrist" though. He's a weird combination of the things centrists can't stand about the Tory right, and the things the Tory right don't like about their party's self-described pragmatists.

    So pleases and understands no one.

    If the Tories do have a real disaster it's because they'll be a rare example of a party that managed to totally alienate both the moderate end of its voter coalition and its extreme end at the same time. Even Corbyn only managed one of those.
    The odd thing is that Maggie got away with it, and the wet end of the party extended quite a bit further left in those days. Her talent as a politician? Different sort of threat from Socialists? Or has the old centre of the Conservative Party simply ceased to hold? Are the things that (say) Tugendhat and Braverman want incompatible in a way that wasn't true for (say) Patten and Ridley?
    Fine margins. Thatcher was lucky to get to 1983, had her finger on the pulse of the nations until 1987, and after that was part of the furniture, so stayed too long because no one could imagine life without her.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,512

    MJW said:

    Mortimer said:

    My biggest surprise is how long it took for people to realise the obvious; that Sunak was terrible at politics and would likely fall further during an election campaign.

    Wet centrists will own this coming defeat for a long time.

    Sunak isn't a "wet centrist" though. He's a weird combination of the things centrists can't stand about the Tory right, and the things the Tory right don't like about their party's self-described pragmatists.

    So pleases and understands no one.

    If the Tories do have a real disaster it's because they'll be a rare example of a party that managed to totally alienate both the moderate end of its voter coalition and its extreme end at the same time. Even Corbyn only managed one of those.
    The odd thing is that Maggie got away with it, and the wet end of the party extended quite a bit further left in those days. Her talent as a politician? Different sort of threat from Socialists? Or has the old centre of the Conservative Party simply ceased to hold? Are the things that (say) Tugendhat and Braverman want incompatible in a way that wasn't true for (say) Patten and Ridley?
    I think the big difference is that she took the centre with her. She actually shifted it a bit to the right so she still appeared to many people, at least in the first couple of terms, to be operating from the centre.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,585

    Andy_JS said:

    Mortimer said:

    ping said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    My biggest surprise is how long it took for people to realise the obvious; that Sunak was terrible at politics and would likely fall further during an election campaign.

    Wet centrists will own this coming defeat for a long time.

    Are you ever going to accept that Boris and Truss have their share of the responsibility ?

    Together with all the other Conservative politicians who have disgraced themselves during sine the last election ?

    If you think that Sunak is terrible at politics then what does that say of the rest of the Conservatives party that Sunak was the only person left standing after the previous leadership failings ?
    Oh absolutely, Boris and Truss failed as well.

    But Sunak has spent the last two years doing fundamentally unConservative things. Growing the state, increasing the tax burden, restricting liberty.

    He will not be remembered well by Conservative members.

    And I totally agree with you - it shows the Parliamentary party as poor ground politicians. They should have ensured there was a proper contest after Truss resigned. By failing to do so, and then failing to oust Sunak when it became obvious he wasn't up to it, many, perhaps most of them, will end up losing their seats.
    Did you vote for Truss in the first leadership election?
    I did. I was very disappointed that her growth plans failed. I think we would probably both suggest that it was largely her own fault, however....
    She tried to do too much, too quickly. She had a full two and half years ahead of her before she had to call an election.
    It was also wrong end of the telescope....just cutting taxes will give you a sugar rush, but if you don't fix the productivity that sugar rush will crash and you will be putting them back up again.

    We haven't had consistent periods of growth above 2% for nearly 20 years.
    All that tax cuts and spending rises and other government 'stimulus' does is bring forward future economic activity.

    Effectively it steals economic activity from the future.

    The problem is that we've been doing it for so long that we're now living in the future from which the economic activity has been stolen.

    To get genuine economic growth productivity growth is needed.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,046

    ping said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    My biggest surprise is how long it took for people to realise the obvious; that Sunak was terrible at politics and would likely fall further during an election campaign.

    Wet centrists will own this coming defeat for a long time.

    Are you ever going to accept that Boris and Truss have their share of the responsibility ?

    Together with all the other Conservative politicians who have disgraced themselves during sine the last election ?

    If you think that Sunak is terrible at politics then what does that say of the rest of the Conservatives party that Sunak was the only person left standing after the previous leadership failings ?
    Oh absolutely, Boris and Truss failed as well.

    But Sunak has spent the last two years doing fundamentally unConservative things. Growing the state, increasing the tax burden, restricting liberty.

    He will not be remembered well by Conservative members.

    And I totally agree with you - it shows the Parliamentary party as poor ground politicians. They should have ensured there was a proper contest after Truss resigned. By failing to do so, and then failing to oust Sunak when it became obvious he wasn't up to it, many, perhaps most of them, will end up losing their seats.
    Did you vote for Truss in the first leadership election?
    One of the interesting things which will hopefully come out after the election is whether there was tactical voting against Mordaunt as they thought Truss would be easier to beat. I can't imagine that Morduant would have done any worse.
    I can.

    Well ok, not worse than Truss, but badly. Just look at her in these debates. Dealt a bad hand but played it poorly.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,411
    ...
    Mortimer said:

    MJW said:

    Mortimer said:

    My biggest surprise is how long it took for people to realise the obvious; that Sunak was terrible at politics and would likely fall further during an election campaign.

    Wet centrists will own this coming defeat for a long time.

    Sunak isn't a "wet centrist" though. He's a weird combination of the things centrists can't stand about the Tory right, and the things the Tory right don't like about their party's self-described pragmatists.

    So pleases and understands no one.

    If the Tories do have a real disaster it's because they'll be a rare example of a party that managed to totally alienate both the moderate end of its voter coalition and its extreme end at the same time. Even Corbyn only managed one of those.
    This is an excellent comment. I'm a longtime member and Tory activist, so to me he seems a wet centrist.

    Sunak's terrible attempts at triangulation have pushed me to cheering on the coming defeat.
    MJW's theory is entertaining, but doesn’t hold water. Sunak's wet centrism and his right wingery don't hold equal status - his actions and policies have been totally anti-conservative. His right wingery has been performative, sporadic, and shallower than a puddle.
This discussion has been closed.