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When political betting can get you into trouble – politicalbetting.com

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  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,459
    kle4 said:

    A £100 bet....what an absolute moron.

    If you are anywhere near government decision making with rumours of when election is you don't go placing bets on this stuff. Its just moronic. Also do they not realise that bookies require KYC and are constantly checking for conflicts of interest these days. Hence why the footballers have all got done.

    Much as I like a bet, do people in these positions even need the money from such a winning bet?
    IF John Wilkes and James Fox are anything to go by . . . hell yes!
  • DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 837
    kle4 said:

    Green Party Manifesto 2024 Part 3
    Making work fair

    • Workers being exploited. Repeal anti-union legislation. 10:1 pay ratio for all private and public sector organisations.
    • Minimum wage of £15, employment allowance to 10k, full employment rights day one
    • Pay gap protections
    • Support 4 day weeks
    • Giving everyone a fairer, greener deal
    • Universal credit up 40 a week
    • End 5 week wait for benefits
    • Abolish 2 child benefit gap
    • Carers increased at least 10% a month
    • Scrap bedroom tax
    • ‘long term’ push for universal basic income
    A fairer and greener approach to public finances
    • Investment income taxed same rate as earned income.
    • No increase in basic rate of income tax
    • Rejecting ‘straitjacket of conventional fiscal rules’ (note – sounds like something Truss would say)
    • Wealth tax – 1% for those with assets above 10m, 2% for those over a billion
    • Reform inheritance tax to be more fair (note – no idea what this means in practice)
    • Green party always opposed council tax – long term goal land value tax
    • Windfall tax increase for oil and gas
    • Carbon tax – 120 per tonne, to 500 per tonne within 10 years – ‘deliberately’ to make it cheaper to reduce emissions than pay tax. Estimate it will raise £80bn by end of parliament
    • ‘never allow an obsession with fiscal rules to stop us investing’ (note - !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! So basically if something looks like a bad idea, never mind)
    Brining nature back to life
    • Nature more than just its economic value.
    • Water privtisation a disaster.
    • New right to nature act – legal personhood to nature (note – and that helps things how? – says cannot be exploited for financial gain, does that mean farming is out?)
    • 30% land and seas set aside
    • everyone can live 15 minutes from a nature rich green space
    • 3bn annually to support returning to nature
    Protecting animals
    • Commission on animal protection
    • ban on all blood suports
    • new laws to tackle when companion animals are stolen (note - gimmick, why is a new law needed?)
    • 'work toward' ban on lab monkey testing
    • oppose badger culling
    • push for ban on bottom trawling
    So nothing on flytipping? Or are they comfortable with it?
  • PedestrianRockPedestrianRock Posts: 578
    edited June 12
    IanB2 said:

    EPG said:

    Talking of dickheads...

    Police say they are aware an internet prankster has seemingly been registered to stand as a general election candidate in multiple constituencies.

    The name of YouTuber Niko Omilana, who stood in the London mayoral election three years ago, is on the ballot as an independent in at least 11 constituencies.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cm55x95xj54o

    I never knew it was illegal to stand in more than one constituency. Seems a bit much.
    I didn’t know it was, and am fairly sure it didn’t used to be. It was just that if you got elected more than once, you had to resign all but one.

    Didn’t Bill Boakes stand in multiple seats back in the ‘80s? Or maybe even the ‘70s?
    So theoretically someone with £300k ish could stand in every constituency and just hope they get elected in one? I'm honestly surprised a YouTuber hasn't tried that before...

    EDIT: Ah - it is indeed illegal - but as the article says, he might have got 10 people to change their names to his - which is harder to check of course
  • DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,127
    EPG said:

    Talking of dickheads...

    Police say they are aware an internet prankster has seemingly been registered to stand as a general election candidate in multiple constituencies.

    The name of YouTuber Niko Omilana, who stood in the London mayoral election three years ago, is on the ballot as an independent in at least 11 constituencies.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cm55x95xj54o

    I never knew it was illegal to stand in more than one constituency. Seems a bit much.
    It was a silly overreaction to Screaming Lord Sutch standing against Major, Kinnock and Ashdown in 1992.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,331
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Farooq said:

    Foxy said:

    Also from Yougov:



    No wonder that Tories aren't crowing about Brexit when only a third of their own supporters think it as has done more good than harm.

    And opposition parties should note that this sort of polling cannot be ignored forever.

    I'll vote for a rejoin party. Manifesto or referendum, either is fine.

    REJOIN
    There are 26 Rejoin EU party candidates standing, a couple fairly local to me, but I am still deciding between LD and Green, leaning LD now.

    https://therejoineuparty.com/general-election-2024/candidates/
    Effectively a vote to keep the Tory in Mid Leicestershire. Is he/she a Remainer?
    No, the only Tory that I would vote for in this election would be Watling in Clacton.

    If my seat goes Lab it would mean that Starmer has a 251 seat majority rather than a mere 250, so it matters not.
    You would still wind up with a Leaver Tory MP!
    Instead of a Leaver Labour one!
    Is the Labour candidate there a Leaver?
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,276
    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    I was wondering where the Labour activists in East London would go given there aren't too many marginal seats in the vicinity (apart from East Ham and its 33,000 majority of course).

    Would they go to Romford or to Hornchurch & Upminster?

    It seems not - the Newham Mayor and the Labour candidates for Stratford & Bow and West Ham & Beckton have headed to Colchester.

    https://www.opennewham.co.uk/news/the-west-ham-and-beckton-campaign-is-getting-personal

    James Cracknell, the new Conservative candidate, is defending a 9,400 majority - Labour needs a swing of 8.8% to take the seat so should be quite achievable on current numbers. It is the 136th most marginal Conservvative seat (or the 236th safest if you prefer).

    A very thin excuse for a jolly if you ask me, Stodge.

    Colchester can be pretty wild on a Wednesday night.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,390

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Farooq said:

    Foxy said:

    Also from Yougov:



    No wonder that Tories aren't crowing about Brexit when only a third of their own supporters think it as has done more good than harm.

    And opposition parties should note that this sort of polling cannot be ignored forever.

    I'll vote for a rejoin party. Manifesto or referendum, either is fine.

    REJOIN
    There are 26 Rejoin EU party candidates standing, a couple fairly local to me, but I am still deciding between LD and Green, leaning LD now.

    https://therejoineuparty.com/general-election-2024/candidates/
    Effectively a vote to keep the Tory in Mid Leicestershire. Is he/she a Remainer?
    No, the only Tory that I would vote for in this election would be Watling in Clacton.

    If my seat goes Lab it would mean that Starmer has a 251 seat majority rather than a mere 250, so it matters not.
    You would still wind up with a Leaver Tory MP!
    Instead of a Leaver Labour one!
    Is the Labour candidate there a Leaver?
    That's the party position and the manifesto they are all running on.

    It's not the only reason that I won't vote Labour of course.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,655

    I've just realised that as I don't have a TV Licence, I don't think I can legally really get involved in any election discussions. I can't watch any debates, even if the broadcasters stream them live on YouTube. I can't watch any election night programmes, even if the broadcasters stream them live on YouTube. So, unless you fund the BBC, the election is difficult to follow.
    Obviously, there's a thing called the internet, but the TV Licence is a bar to easy political news access.

    You can’t watch the BBC iPlayer without a licence, and you can’t livestream Sky, ITV etc. without one, but you can watch Sky or ITV on demand/catch-up, I believe.
  • EPG said:

    Talking of dickheads...

    Police say they are aware an internet prankster has seemingly been registered to stand as a general election candidate in multiple constituencies.

    The name of YouTuber Niko Omilana, who stood in the London mayoral election three years ago, is on the ballot as an independent in at least 11 constituencies.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cm55x95xj54o

    I never knew it was illegal to stand in more than one constituency. Seems a bit much.
    Only made illegal relatively recently, from the 2010 election onwards. There was a candidate called Catherine Taylor-Dawson who stood for several seats in 2005 and, in one of the Cardiff seats, got one vote - which I think is the record low in a Parliamentary election.

    In the more distant past, when elections were held over a period of time, it was relatively common to stand in multiple seats in the same election.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,705
    IanB2 said:

    EPG said:

    Talking of dickheads...

    Police say they are aware an internet prankster has seemingly been registered to stand as a general election candidate in multiple constituencies.

    The name of YouTuber Niko Omilana, who stood in the London mayoral election three years ago, is on the ballot as an independent in at least 11 constituencies.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cm55x95xj54o

    I never knew it was illegal to stand in more than one constituency. Seems a bit much.
    I didn’t know it was, and am fairly sure it didn’t used to be. It was just that if you got elected more than once, you had to resign all but one.

    Didn’t Bill Boakes stand in multiple seats back in the ‘80s? Or maybe even the ‘70s?
    Didn't “Rainbow” George Weiss do it much more recently?
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,327

    I've just realised that as I don't have a TV Licence, I don't think I can legally really get involved in any election discussions. I can't watch any debates, even if the broadcasters stream them live on YouTube. I can't watch any election night programmes, even if the broadcasters stream them live on YouTube. So, unless you fund the BBC, the election is difficult to follow.
    Obviously, there's a thing called the internet, but the TV Licence is a bar to easy political news access.

    On election night, Radio 4/5 - which I shall be listening to. In general, Times Radio has some decent coverage, and LBC also. Guardian website. PB and judicious use of its links.

    (The existence of something called Gardener's World requires our household to have a licence).
  • PedestrianRockPedestrianRock Posts: 578
    ToryJim said:

    Talking of dickheads...

    Police say they are aware an internet prankster has seemingly been registered to stand as a general election candidate in multiple constituencies.

    The name of YouTuber Niko Omilana, who stood in the London mayoral election three years ago, is on the ballot as an independent in at least 11 constituencies.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cm55x95xj54o

    This is the stage we are at where pillocks are leveraging democracy for views and likes. This civilisation deserves to fall.
    Don't be so dramatic, Screaming Lord Sutch has been doing it since the 60s and there's probably been countless candidates before that too.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,668
    chrisb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    As I understand it, this is not a criminal offense. There is no law against "insider betting".

    However, this is a spectacularly stupid thing to do, and is morally pretty shitty.

    https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2005/19/section/42
    https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2005/19/notes/division/5/3/7/1/7
    OK, I'll bite. He had private information as to the outcome. He did not influence the outcome nor did he deceive the bookmaker. Does this fall within the "normal, everyday meaning" of cheating as stated in (deep breath) Schedule 6, Part 3, Section 42, subsection 163 of the explanatory notes of the Gambling Act 2005?
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,655
    Foxy said:

    Farooq said:

    Foxy said:

    Also from Yougov:



    No wonder that Tories aren't crowing about Brexit when only a third of their own supporters think it as has done more good than harm.

    And opposition parties should note that this sort of polling cannot be ignored forever.

    I'll vote for a rejoin party. Manifesto or referendum, either is fine.

    REJOIN
    There are 26 Rejoin EU party candidates standing, a couple fairly local to me, but I am still deciding between LD and Green, leaning LD now.

    https://therejoineuparty.com/general-election-2024/candidates/
    Their leader, Donnelly, was a Tory MEP, who left to co-found the Pro-Euro Conservative Party, and when that flopped, joined the LibDems.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,350
    edited June 12

    I've just realised that as I don't have a TV Licence, I don't think I can legally really get involved in any election discussions. I can't watch any debates, even if the broadcasters stream them live on YouTube. I can't watch any election night programmes, even if the broadcasters stream them live on YouTube. So, unless you fund the BBC, the election is difficult to follow.
    Obviously, there's a thing called the internet, but the TV Licence is a bar to easy political news access.

    You can’t watch the BBC iPlayer without a licence, and you can’t livestream Sky, ITV etc. without one, but you can watch Sky or ITV on demand/catch-up, I believe.
    Rule is very simple. No live tv or iPlayer. Any other non-live streaming or catchup is fine. The only wrinkle is live streaming online like YouTube. I believe the rule is if it is also available on an over the air service, not allowed e.g. sky news, otherwise its ok to watch live YouTube or Twitch.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,783

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    I was wondering where the Labour activists in East London would go given there aren't too many marginal seats in the vicinity (apart from East Ham and its 33,000 majority of course).

    Would they go to Romford or to Hornchurch & Upminster?

    It seems not - the Newham Mayor and the Labour candidates for Stratford & Bow and West Ham & Beckton have headed to Colchester.

    https://www.opennewham.co.uk/news/the-west-ham-and-beckton-campaign-is-getting-personal

    James Cracknell, the new Conservative candidate, is defending a 9,400 majority - Labour needs a swing of 8.8% to take the seat so should be quite achievable on current numbers. It is the 136th most marginal Conservvative seat (or the 236th safest if you prefer).

    A very thin excuse for a jolly if you ask me, Stodge.

    Colchester can be pretty wild on a Wednesday night.
    You seem to speak from experience.

    I wouldn't know - one place I wouldn't be next Wednesday is Ascot. I can't remember if Flat racing was your interest or whether it was the jumps.

    It'll be a welcome break from the election to do some proper punting.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,084
    kle4 said:

    On the Green Party manifesto:

    Does "ban on all blood sports" include fishing?

    The Green Party is fundamentally opposed to all blood sports and would campaign to introduce
    a ban on all hunting in the first year of a new parliament. This includes trophy hunting, trail
    hunting, where dogs are used to track foxes, and the commercial shooting of game birds.
    The Green manifesto is very far left.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,045
    algarkirk said:

    I've just realised that as I don't have a TV Licence, I don't think I can legally really get involved in any election discussions. I can't watch any debates, even if the broadcasters stream them live on YouTube. I can't watch any election night programmes, even if the broadcasters stream them live on YouTube. So, unless you fund the BBC, the election is difficult to follow.
    Obviously, there's a thing called the internet, but the TV Licence is a bar to easy political news access.

    On election night, Radio 4/5 - which I shall be listening to. In general, Times Radio has some decent coverage, and LBC also. Guardian website. PB and judicious use of its links.

    (The existence of something called Gardener's World requires our household to have a licence).
    My wife is obsessed with Monty Don, to a suspicious extent, I think.

    He is a great presenter though.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,331
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Farooq said:

    Foxy said:

    Also from Yougov:



    No wonder that Tories aren't crowing about Brexit when only a third of their own supporters think it as has done more good than harm.

    And opposition parties should note that this sort of polling cannot be ignored forever.

    I'll vote for a rejoin party. Manifesto or referendum, either is fine.

    REJOIN
    There are 26 Rejoin EU party candidates standing, a couple fairly local to me, but I am still deciding between LD and Green, leaning LD now.

    https://therejoineuparty.com/general-election-2024/candidates/
    Effectively a vote to keep the Tory in Mid Leicestershire. Is he/she a Remainer?
    No, the only Tory that I would vote for in this election would be Watling in Clacton.

    If my seat goes Lab it would mean that Starmer has a 251 seat majority rather than a mere 250, so it matters not.
    You would still wind up with a Leaver Tory MP!
    Instead of a Leaver Labour one!
    Is the Labour candidate there a Leaver?
    That's the party position and the manifesto they are all running on.

    It's not the only reason that I won't vote Labour of course.
    The trick with FPP is to vote to avoid what you consider the worst outcome. So if you prefer a Tory Leaver MP, I guess you are doing the right thing!
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,655
    edited June 12
    deleted
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,327
    viewcode said:

    chrisb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    As I understand it, this is not a criminal offense. There is no law against "insider betting".

    However, this is a spectacularly stupid thing to do, and is morally pretty shitty.

    https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2005/19/section/42
    https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2005/19/notes/division/5/3/7/1/7
    OK, I'll bite. He had private information as to the outcome. He did not influence the outcome nor did he deceive the bookmaker. Does this fall within the "normal, everyday meaning" of cheating as stated in (deep breath) Schedule 6, Part 3, Section 42, subsection 163 of the explanatory notes of the Gambling Act 2005?
    Is it cheating if a bookie knows more than you do about how fast a horse can run?
  • Today's polls confirm the trend. That soft Lab vote that we all expected to peel off at some point is finally doing so. You have to assume this is down to the attacks on tax, Farage-mania and the Lab apparent coronation causing some anti-Cons, especially right-wing anti-Cons, to look elsewhere. Good news for a few Con MPs.

    Or is it 2017-redux. No - because those voters are not rallying to Mr Sunak. Every poll shows the Con share still sliding except for MIC who have it flat-lining at the stratospheric level of 25%.

    How about 2010? Well maybe. Can the Cons persuade those voters currently rallying to Reform to complete the journey home? This is where the shambolic campaign and especially D-Day really bites them in the posterior
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084

    I've just realised that as I don't have a TV Licence, I don't think I can legally really get involved in any election discussions. I can't watch any debates, even if the broadcasters stream them live on YouTube. I can't watch any election night programmes, even if the broadcasters stream them live on YouTube. So, unless you fund the BBC, the election is difficult to follow.
    Obviously, there's a thing called the internet, but the TV Licence is a bar to easy political news access.

    You can’t watch the BBC iPlayer without a licence, and you can’t livestream Sky, ITV etc. without one, but you can watch Sky or ITV on demand/catch-up, I believe.
    When you write ‘can’t’ you mean ‘shouldn’t’?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,390

    ToryJim said:

    Talking of dickheads...

    Police say they are aware an internet prankster has seemingly been registered to stand as a general election candidate in multiple constituencies.

    The name of YouTuber Niko Omilana, who stood in the London mayoral election three years ago, is on the ballot as an independent in at least 11 constituencies.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cm55x95xj54o

    This is the stage we are at where pillocks are leveraging democracy for views and likes. This civilisation deserves to fall.
    Don't be so dramatic, Screaming Lord Sutch has been doing it since the 60s and there's probably been countless candidates before that too.
    A tradition that goes back even further according to this documentary footage from Georgian England.

    https://youtu.be/h6mJw50OdZ4?feature=shared
  • I've just realised that as I don't have a TV Licence, I don't think I can legally really get involved in any election discussions. I can't watch any debates, even if the broadcasters stream them live on YouTube. I can't watch any election night programmes, even if the broadcasters stream them live on YouTube. So, unless you fund the BBC, the election is difficult to follow.
    Obviously, there's a thing called the internet, but the TV Licence is a bar to easy political news access.

    You can’t watch the BBC iPlayer without a licence, and you can’t livestream Sky, ITV etc. without one, but you can watch Sky or ITV on demand/catch-up, I believe.
    Absolutely. Anything that's not BBC/iPlayer or anything broadcast live via a recognisably a TV broadcaster is fine, so any catch up or on demand is fine, but not +1.
    I'm just commenting that you can't really legally watch live politics. Same as if there's a national emergency, and you wanted to watch the news to keep abreast of it or get public service announcements, legally you couldn't watch it.
    I just find it a bit grim that you have to fund the BBC to watch a live party leader debate on Sky News. That just seems unfair.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,613
    edited June 12
    Green Party Manifesto Part 4
    A greener and fairer food and farming system
    • Ultra processed food is bad. Climate change threatens food supply.
    • Support farmers to transition to nature friendly farming
    • Improve soil health
    • Offer sustainable employment, decent livelihoods, food conditions, to those growing food (note – how?)
    • End unfair trade deals
    • All children to have daily free school meal
    • ‘rebalance power dynamic’ between big food manufacturers and local alternatives
    • Putting small and family farms ‘back in the room’ to develop farming policy (note – eh?)
    Creating a fairer green education system
    • 1.4bn per year in sure start centres
    • Extend ‘outgoing government’s officer of 35 hours per week childcare
    • 8bn for schools
    • 2.5bn to tackle RAAC concrete scandal
    • Ensure effective deliver of new natural history GCSE (note – oddly specific)
    • Academies back to local authority control, remove charitable status of private schools
    • 5bm in SEND provision
    • 12bn in skills and lifelong learning
    • Restore role of school nurse – all schools have on site medical professional
    • ‘fully fund every higher education student, restore maintenance grants, and scrap undergraduate tuition fees. Long term plans to cancel graduate debt (note – this seems really, really, really expensive)
    Investing in fairer greener transport
    • Air pollution leads to 40k deaths per year
    • 19bn over 5 years to improve public transport
    • Local authorities control over improved bus services
    • 2,5bn a year in new cycleways and footpaths
    • ‘approach to identifying’ rails lines which could be identified (note – guff)
    • End to sales of petrol and diesel cars by 2027, end to use on the road by 2035
    • 20mph default speed limit in built up areas
    • Frequent flyer levy
    • Halt to airport expansion
    A fairer greener democracy
    • Corporations mean we don’t see action we need (note – pretty sure its people not voting for you)
    • Fair politics act – removes voter ID, get rid of FPTP (not clear with what, just something proportional), ‘fair’ system of funding parties, go after think tanks, 16 year olds to vote
    • Amend online safety act to ‘prevent political debate from being manipulated by falsehoods, fakes, and half truths (note – you what?! This is so unworkable)
    • Support self determination of devolved nations.
    • Give local government powers they need (note – just as vague as all parties)
    • Restore local aid, scrap anti protest laws
    • Supports self ID
  • AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,415
    edited June 12
    Chris said:

    IanB2 said:

    EPG said:

    Talking of dickheads...

    Police say they are aware an internet prankster has seemingly been registered to stand as a general election candidate in multiple constituencies.

    The name of YouTuber Niko Omilana, who stood in the London mayoral election three years ago, is on the ballot as an independent in at least 11 constituencies.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cm55x95xj54o

    I never knew it was illegal to stand in more than one constituency. Seems a bit much.
    I didn’t know it was, and am fairly sure it didn’t used to be. It was just that if you got elected more than once, you had to resign all but one.

    Didn’t Bill Boakes stand in multiple seats back in the ‘80s? Or maybe even the ‘70s?
    Didn't “Rainbow” George Weiss do it much more recently?
    He stood in several seats in the 2007 NI Assembly Election - the Belfast ones certainly, maybe others too. Got fewer than 100 votes in each...

    ETA: Ah, just the Belfast ones - highest was 68 in Belfast West: https://cain.ulster.ac.uk/issues/politics/election/2007nia/ra2007.htm
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,668
    algarkirk said:

    viewcode said:

    chrisb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    As I understand it, this is not a criminal offense. There is no law against "insider betting".

    However, this is a spectacularly stupid thing to do, and is morally pretty shitty.

    https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2005/19/section/42
    https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2005/19/notes/division/5/3/7/1/7
    OK, I'll bite. He had private information as to the outcome. He did not influence the outcome nor did he deceive the bookmaker. Does this fall within the "normal, everyday meaning" of cheating as stated in (deep breath) Schedule 6, Part 3, Section 42, subsection 163 of the explanatory notes of the Gambling Act 2005?
    Is it cheating if a bookie knows more than you do about how fast a horse can run?
    In fixed-odds betting, he is offering the wager and I am accepting it. I am not obliged to inform him if I have superior information. It's different in exchange betting.
  • PedestrianRockPedestrianRock Posts: 578
    https://x.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1800939951309156548

    Labour leads Reform UK by 10% among those who primarily read the news from The Telegraph.

    Westminster VI, Telegraph Readers (7-10 June):

    Labour 36%
    Reform UK 26%
    Conservative 20%
    Liberal Democrat 7%
    Other 3%
    Don't Know 7%


    Pretty astonishing numbers. It's likely they will endorse a party who are 3rd amongst its own readers - unless they break for Reform!
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,604

    This is exactly what I thought. Sky wasn't around when he was in his teens.



    Andrew Neil
    @afneil
    ·
    3h
    I launched Sky TV in 1989, by which time Starmer was 27 — so obviously he didn’t have Sky growing up. Nobody his age did since it didn’t exist.
    Also, as the first Executive Chairman of Sky I can tell you with authority that working class families were the first to adopt it.

    Not sure what the point is here.

    It's Sunak who said he didn't have Sky in his teens.

    Sunak was born in May 1980. Sky TV launched in Feb 1989 so he would have been 8 at the time.

    Live Premier League on Sky began in Aug 1992 when Sunak was 12.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,084

    Today's polls confirm the trend. That soft Lab vote that we all expected to peel off at some point is finally doing so. You have to assume this is down to the attacks on tax, Farage-mania and the Lab apparent coronation causing some anti-Cons, especially right-wing anti-Cons, to look elsewhere. Good news for a few Con MPs.

    Or is it 2017-redux. No - because those voters are not rallying to Mr Sunak. Every poll shows the Con share still sliding except for MIC who have it flat-lining at the stratospheric level of 25%.

    How about 2010? Well maybe. Can the Cons persuade those voters currently rallying to Reform to complete the journey home? This is where the shambolic campaign and especially D-Day really bites them in the posterior

    Or do Conservative voters conclude that the party has run its course and stampede to Reform?
  • chrisbchrisb Posts: 114
    algarkirk said:

    viewcode said:

    chrisb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    As I understand it, this is not a criminal offense. There is no law against "insider betting".

    However, this is a spectacularly stupid thing to do, and is morally pretty shitty.

    https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2005/19/section/42
    https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2005/19/notes/division/5/3/7/1/7
    OK, I'll bite. He had private information as to the outcome. He did not influence the outcome nor did he deceive the bookmaker. Does this fall within the "normal, everyday meaning" of cheating as stated in (deep breath) Schedule 6, Part 3, Section 42, subsection 163 of the explanatory notes of the Gambling Act 2005?
    Is it cheating if a bookie knows more than you do about how fast a horse can run?
    Not if that knowledge is based on information that is in the public domain. You just need to do your research better!

    If Mr. Williams was aware of the date of the election when he placed his bet then this feels to me like an obvious case of cheating in its "normal, everyday meaning".
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,350
    edited June 12

    https://x.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1800939951309156548

    Labour leads Reform UK by 10% among those who primarily read the news from The Telegraph.

    Westminster VI, Telegraph Readers (7-10 June):

    Labour 36%
    Reform UK 26%
    Conservative 20%
    Liberal Democrat 7%
    Other 3%
    Don't Know 7%


    Pretty astonishing numbers. It's likely they will endorse a party who are 3rd amongst its own readers - unless they break for Reform!

    Less the Torygraph, more the Reformy-Labour-graph. For the Tories, You are a absolutely f##ked if you aren't even winning with Telegraph readers and GB News viewers.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    I thought the ITV was a bit of a damp squib but probably because it was so heavily trailed and leaked. Also they segued pop vox documentary clips into it so it didn’t really seem much like a proper interview.

    I’ve switched to the Sky debate but suspect my patience will run thin very quickly
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,148
    kle4 said:

    On the Green Party manifesto:

    Does "ban on all blood sports" include fishing?

    The Green Party is fundamentally opposed to all blood sports and would campaign to introduce
    a ban on all hunting in the first year of a new parliament. This includes trophy hunting, trail
    hunting, where dogs are used to track foxes, and the commercial shooting of game birds.
    Thanks. Yet AUIU the term 'blood sports' includes fishing. I assume that would be *after* the first year...
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,500

    The "we never had Sky TV" poverty claim sounded even worse watching it - similar to May's mental gyrations before offering running through a field of wheat as her being naughty...

    My parents were reduced to drinking second growth claret to afford the Uppingham school fees.
    Is Uppingham the one with the monks?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,084
    kle4 said:

    Green Party Manifesto Part 4
    A greener and fairer food and farming system

    • Ultra processed food is bad. Climate change threatens food supply.
    • Support farmers to transition to nature friendly farming
    • Improve soil health
    • Offer sustainable employment, decent livelihoods, food conditions, to those growing food (note – how?)
    • End unfair trade deals
    • All children to have daily free school meal
    • ‘rebalance power dynamic’ between big food manufacturers and local alternatives
    • Putting small and family farms ‘back in the room’ to develop farming policy (note – eh?)
    Creating a fairer green education system
    • 1.4bn per year in sure start centres
    • Extend ‘outgoing government’s officer of 35 hours per week childcare
    • 8bn for schools
    • 2.5bn to tackle RAAC concrete scandal
    • Ensure effective deliver of new natural history GCSE (note – oddly specific)
    • Academies back to local authority control, remove charitable status of private schools
    • 5bm in SEND provision
    • 12bn in skills and lifelong learning
    • Restore role of school nurse – all schools have on site medical professional
    • ‘fully fund every higher education student, restore maintenance grants, and scrap undergraduate tuition fees. Long term plans to cancel graduate debt (note – this seems really, really, really expensive)
    Investing in fairer greener transport
    • Air pollution leads to 40k deaths per year
    • 19bn over 5 years to improve public transport
    • Local authorities control over improved bus services
    • 2,5bn a year in new cycleways and footpaths
    • ‘approach to identifying’ rails lines which could be identified (note – guff)
    • End to sales of petrol and diesel cars by 2027, end to use on the road by 2035
    • 20mph default speed limit in built up areas
    • Frequent flyer levy
    • Halt to airport expansion
    A fairer greener democracy
    • Corporations mean we don’t see action we need (note – pretty sure its people not voting for you)
    • Fair politics act – removes voter ID, get rid of FPTP (not clear with what, just something proportional), ‘fair’ system of funding parties, go after think tanks, 16 year olds to vote
    • Amend online safety act to ‘prevent political debate from being manipulated by falsehoods, fakes, and half truths (note – you what?! This is so unworkable)
    • Support self determination of devolved nations.
    • Give local government powers they need (note – just as vague as all parties)
    • Restore local aid, scrap anti protest laws
    • Supports self ID
    “Happy camping in North Korea” sums it up.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 17,992
    If you were a Tory canvasser in Godalming, and you thought your canvass returns were better than the opinion polls, and you placed a bet on Hunt to hold his seat - would that be "insider betting"?
    If you were a Tory MP who knew how to count, and had spent years in the Commons tea rooms talking with your colleagues, and you placed a bet on the next Conservative Party leader - would that be "insider betting"?
    If you were on a relatively obscure political betting website (less than 10K views on most threads, how many of those are me and Scott?) and a Tory canvasser shares their view that it's going to be a terrrrible night for the Tories - would that be "insider betting"?

    I think we want to be careful before we kick up a fuss about this, and give the gambling companies a reason to cancel winning bets. They already have a lot stacked in their favour.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,390

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Farooq said:

    Foxy said:

    Also from Yougov:



    No wonder that Tories aren't crowing about Brexit when only a third of their own supporters think it as has done more good than harm.

    And opposition parties should note that this sort of polling cannot be ignored forever.

    I'll vote for a rejoin party. Manifesto or referendum, either is fine.

    REJOIN
    There are 26 Rejoin EU party candidates standing, a couple fairly local to me, but I am still deciding between LD and Green, leaning LD now.

    https://therejoineuparty.com/general-election-2024/candidates/
    Effectively a vote to keep the Tory in Mid Leicestershire. Is he/she a Remainer?
    No, the only Tory that I would vote for in this election would be Watling in Clacton.

    If my seat goes Lab it would mean that Starmer has a 251 seat majority rather than a mere 250, so it matters not.
    You would still wind up with a Leaver Tory MP!
    Instead of a Leaver Labour one!
    Is the Labour candidate there a Leaver?
    That's the party position and the manifesto they are all running on.

    It's not the only reason that I won't vote Labour of course.
    The trick with FPP is to vote to avoid what you consider the worst outcome. So if you prefer a Tory Leaver MP, I guess you are doing the right thing!
    Yes but no one should vote for a party who they do not support.

    Similarly Reform voters. They should not vote Tory unless they support Sunak.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,350

    The "we never had Sky TV" poverty claim sounded even worse watching it - similar to May's mental gyrations before offering running through a field of wheat as her being naughty...

    My parents were reduced to drinking second growth claret to afford the Uppingham school fees.
    Is Uppingham the one with the monks?
    Ampleforth, where James O'Biren went.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,198


    Marie Le Conte
    @youngvulgarian
    ·
    10h
    oh good, you've all been given an excuse to talk about your childhoods in relation to class, what a rare delight for British Twitter

    https://x.com/youngvulgarian/status/1800806580138696723
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,728

    IanB2 said:

    EPG said:

    Talking of dickheads...

    Police say they are aware an internet prankster has seemingly been registered to stand as a general election candidate in multiple constituencies.

    The name of YouTuber Niko Omilana, who stood in the London mayoral election three years ago, is on the ballot as an independent in at least 11 constituencies.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cm55x95xj54o

    I never knew it was illegal to stand in more than one constituency. Seems a bit much.
    I didn’t know it was, and am fairly sure it didn’t used to be. It was just that if you got elected more than once, you had to resign all but one.

    Didn’t Bill Boakes stand in multiple seats back in the ‘80s? Or maybe even the ‘70s?
    So theoretically someone with £300k ish could stand in every constituency and just hope they get elected in one? I'm honestly surprised a YouTuber hasn't tried that before...

    EDIT: Ah - it is indeed illegal - but as the article says, he might have got 10 people to change their names to his - which is harder to check of course
    Here we go..amazing recall of a childhood memory on my part, and Wikipedia to the rescue: He stood for his home constituencies of Streatham and Wimbledon at the February 1974 general election; in the latter, he received 240 votes, which was his highest ever number of votes.

    I wonder when it became illegal? And whether Boaks’s double candidature was the reason?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,390
    Heathener said:

    I thought the ITV was a bit of a damp squib but probably because it was so heavily trailed and leaked. Also they segued pop vox documentary clips into it so it didn’t really seem much like a proper interview.

    I’ve switched to the Sky debate but suspect my patience will run thin very quickly

    You can afford Sky?!??
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,546
    viewcode said:

    chrisb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    As I understand it, this is not a criminal offense. There is no law against "insider betting".

    However, this is a spectacularly stupid thing to do, and is morally pretty shitty.

    https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2005/19/section/42
    https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2005/19/notes/division/5/3/7/1/7
    OK, I'll bite. He had private information as to the outcome. He did not influence the outcome nor did he deceive the bookmaker. Does this fall within the "normal, everyday meaning" of cheating as stated in (deep breath) Schedule 6, Part 3, Section 42, subsection 163 of the explanatory notes of the Gambling Act 2005?
    How do we know 'Rishi Sunak’s closest parliamentary aide' didn't influence the outcome?
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    TimS said:

    Heathener said:

    Chameleon said:

    Taz said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Loads of yellow diamonds in and around Axminster.

    Yet to see a single election poster.

    There's not much point here as the odds of anyone other than Labour winning are not far off Bootle territory.
    I don't know if @Dumbosaurus has seen many posters in his part of the seat but nothing at all round my part. Safe labour seat.

    Lots of stuff on twitter of Luke Akehurst campaigning and eating his way around North Durham. Little else.

    You wouldn't know there was an election on if you didn't know !!!
    Lots of Labour and LibDem posters up in Didcot and Wantage, supposedly a safe Tory seat which both parties have as long-shot possibilities. I've yet to see a Tory poster.
    If they're both working it then a very strong chance Tories come through the middle.
    Yep. There's a disaster unfolding there because neither will seemingly back down. I know the seat very well and friends are perplexed about who to vote for. The MRP says the Libs are in the box seat, so Labour should probably back down.
    Same thing in my Newton Abbot constituency. If they could sort it they would easily unseat the incumbent tory (Anne Morris)
    It really is silly behaviour. They need to sort it out.
    Newton Abbot is an obvious Lib Dem target and they were second in 2019 and control Teignbridge council. I think in most cases like this voters will know the right answer.
    Thanks for this Tim.

    Despite the boundary changes, you’re right although it has been genuinely confusing until the last few days.
  • I've just realised that as I don't have a TV Licence, I don't think I can legally really get involved in any election discussions. I can't watch any debates, even if the broadcasters stream them live on YouTube. I can't watch any election night programmes, even if the broadcasters stream them live on YouTube. So, unless you fund the BBC, the election is difficult to follow.
    Obviously, there's a thing called the internet, but the TV Licence is a bar to easy political news access.

    You can’t watch the BBC iPlayer without a licence, and you can’t livestream Sky, ITV etc. without one, but you can watch Sky or ITV on demand/catch-up, I believe.
    Rule is very simple. No live tv or iPlayer. Any other non-live streaming or catchup is fine. The only wrinkle is live streaming online like YouTube. I believe the rule is if it is also available on an over the air service, not allowed e.g. sky news, otherwise its ok to watch live YouTube or Twitch.
    A good rule of thumb is that if it's broadcast live on UK satellite, no matter what country it is from or what language it is in, you need a TV Licence. So Sky News is not allowed but something like a NASA launch or Spacex or a random bloke doing a livestream is fine.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,304
    edited June 12
    Waffley Starmer steam rolling Beth.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,304

    Waffley Starmer steam rolling Beth.

    God he waffles and doesn’t answer.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,459
    EPG said:

    Talking of dickheads...

    Police say they are aware an internet prankster has seemingly been registered to stand as a general election candidate in multiple constituencies.

    The name of YouTuber Niko Omilana, who stood in the London mayoral election three years ago, is on the ballot as an independent in at least 11 constituencies.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cm55x95xj54o

    I never knew it was illegal to stand in more than one constituency. Seems a bit much.
    Electoral commission cites 1983 edition of Representation of the People Act.

    Note that in 1918 general election, Eamon de Valera ran for and was elected SF MP for East Clare (his home seat which he was still representing as FF TD until 1959 when he was elected President) and also Mayo East, where he defeated John Dillon who was leader (briefly) of the rival (and soon defunct) Irish Parliamentary Party.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,728
    edited June 12
    MikeL said:

    This is exactly what I thought. Sky wasn't around when he was in his teens.



    Andrew Neil
    @afneil
    ·
    3h
    I launched Sky TV in 1989, by which time Starmer was 27 — so obviously he didn’t have Sky growing up. Nobody his age did since it didn’t exist.
    Also, as the first Executive Chairman of Sky I can tell you with authority that working class families were the first to adopt it.

    Not sure what the point is here.

    It's Sunak who said he didn't have Sky in his teens.

    Sunak was born in May 1980. Sky TV launched in Feb 1989 so he would have been 8 at the time.

    Live Premier League on Sky began in Aug 1992 when Sunak was 12.
    It was a trap he shouldn’t have fallen into. His point - essentially that he didn’t have a spoiled childhood - is a perfectly reasonable one; even if his parents were comfortably off, there are plenty of children from such backgrounds who don’t get everything they want. Many well off parents restrict their children’s access to phones and computer games and TV.

    But the journalist knew that pushing for a specific example of something he didn’t get would generate a story, since any one thing he cited would sound ridiculous when considered against the experience of children growing up in genuine poverty or neglect. A more able political would have managed to avoid being specific and retreated to the general.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,331
    Starmer much more energetic this time. Rigby keeps trying to interrupt him for some reason but he’s not letting her.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,327

    I've just realised that as I don't have a TV Licence, I don't think I can legally really get involved in any election discussions. I can't watch any debates, even if the broadcasters stream them live on YouTube. I can't watch any election night programmes, even if the broadcasters stream them live on YouTube. So, unless you fund the BBC, the election is difficult to follow.
    Obviously, there's a thing called the internet, but the TV Licence is a bar to easy political news access.

    You can’t watch the BBC iPlayer without a licence, and you can’t livestream Sky, ITV etc. without one, but you can watch Sky or ITV on demand/catch-up, I believe.
    Absolutely. Anything that's not BBC/iPlayer or anything broadcast live via a recognisably a TV broadcaster is fine, so any catch up or on demand is fine, but not +1.
    I'm just commenting that you can't really legally watch live politics. Same as if there's a national emergency, and you wanted to watch the news to keep abreast of it or get public service announcements, legally you couldn't watch it.
    I just find it a bit grim that you have to fund the BBC to watch a live party leader debate on Sky News. That just seems unfair.
    Agree, except that I would want to be paid to watch it. Radio is free, whether heard in the old fashioned way after the valves have warmed up, or on the interweb thingy, and remains a fantastic bargain.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,655

    I've just realised that as I don't have a TV Licence, I don't think I can legally really get involved in any election discussions. I can't watch any debates, even if the broadcasters stream them live on YouTube. I can't watch any election night programmes, even if the broadcasters stream them live on YouTube. So, unless you fund the BBC, the election is difficult to follow.
    Obviously, there's a thing called the internet, but the TV Licence is a bar to easy political news access.

    You can’t watch the BBC iPlayer without a licence, and you can’t livestream Sky, ITV etc. without one, but you can watch Sky or ITV on demand/catch-up, I believe.
    Absolutely. Anything that's not BBC/iPlayer or anything broadcast live via a recognisably a TV broadcaster is fine, so any catch up or on demand is fine, but not +1.
    I'm just commenting that you can't really legally watch live politics. Same as if there's a national emergency, and you wanted to watch the news to keep abreast of it or get public service announcements, legally you couldn't watch it.
    I just find it a bit grim that you have to fund the BBC to watch a live party leader debate on Sky News. That just seems unfair.
    I don’t see any need to watch live politics. You are not less informed about the candidates because you watched a debate 2 hours later.

    If there was a national emergency, there would be free, live streams on GOV.UK to watch.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,304
    Struggling Starmer on the first simple question.

    Signs he has lost the audience already on trust.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,757

    algarkirk said:

    I've just realised that as I don't have a TV Licence, I don't think I can legally really get involved in any election discussions. I can't watch any debates, even if the broadcasters stream them live on YouTube. I can't watch any election night programmes, even if the broadcasters stream them live on YouTube. So, unless you fund the BBC, the election is difficult to follow.
    Obviously, there's a thing called the internet, but the TV Licence is a bar to easy political news access.

    On election night, Radio 4/5 - which I shall be listening to. In general, Times Radio has some decent coverage, and LBC also. Guardian website. PB and judicious use of its links.

    (The existence of something called Gardener's World requires our household to have a licence).
    My wife is obsessed with Monty Don, to a suspicious extent, I think.

    He is a great presenter though.
    Derek Guy, the US male fashion blogger followed by several PBers, has him in his top 10 best dressed men. I’d agree on the basis that he’s entirely comfortable in his own skin (& what he clothes it in).
  • UnpopularUnpopular Posts: 876
    Those stage lights are making Starmer look washed out. Rigby is also giving him a good mauling.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,350
    edited June 12
    IanB2 said:

    MikeL said:

    This is exactly what I thought. Sky wasn't around when he was in his teens.



    Andrew Neil
    @afneil
    ·
    3h
    I launched Sky TV in 1989, by which time Starmer was 27 — so obviously he didn’t have Sky growing up. Nobody his age did since it didn’t exist.
    Also, as the first Executive Chairman of Sky I can tell you with authority that working class families were the first to adopt it.

    Not sure what the point is here.

    It's Sunak who said he didn't have Sky in his teens.

    Sunak was born in May 1980. Sky TV launched in Feb 1989 so he would have been 8 at the time.

    Live Premier League on Sky began in Aug 1992 when Sunak was 12.
    It was a trap he shouldn’t have fallen into. His point - essentially that he didn’t have a spoiled childhood - is a perfectly reasonable one; even if his parents were comfortably off, there are plenty of children from such backgrounds who don’t get everything they want.

    But the journalist knew that pushing for a specific example of something he didn’t get would generate a story, since any one thing he cited would sound ridiculous when matched up to the experience of children growing up in genuine poverty or neglect. A more able political would have managed to avoid being specific and retreated to the general.
    Sunak manages to turn what is quite a positive story, immigrant family does well, first generation offspring incredibly successful, akin to American Dream, into looking like an out of touch plonker.

    He has zero political nous.
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,120
    edited June 12
    chrisb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    As I understand it, this is not a criminal offense. There is no law against "insider betting".

    However, this is a spectacularly stupid thing to do, and is morally pretty shitty.

    https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2005/19/section/42
    https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2005/19/notes/division/5/3/7/1/7
    Isn't that effectively match fixing (or at least attempted fixing) as opposed to insider betting?

    There is a key distinction there. One is interfering in the event being bet on, whereas the other is being party to information that others don't have.
  • PedestrianRockPedestrianRock Posts: 578
    This answer from Starmer on supporting Corbyn is surprisingly honest. I'm not sure it will go down well though.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,304
    edited June 12
    Unpopular said:

    Those stage lights are making Starmer look washed out. Rigby is also giving him a good mauling.

    Properly mauled already, it’s only 2 questions in.

    The problem is he’s waffley.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,175

    Foxy said:

    Also from Yougov:



    No wonder that Tories aren't crowing about Brexit when only a third of their own supporters think it as has done more good than harm.

    And opposition parties should note that this sort of polling cannot be ignored forever.

    Brexit, the great unflushed turd of British politics.
    Very unfair, surely Lord Cameron's excellent bid should be considered before just handing the title to Brexit.


  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,769
    Starmer getting skewered on why he changed his pledges. Dangerous ground he is on here.

    What's that noise? Oh yeah, its Owen Jones shouting at his telly
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,604
    edited June 12
    The question should be:

    "Keir, what do you really believe?"

    "Are you now just advocating policies you don't believe in - just to fit in with what the country wants?"
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,728
    Heathener said:

    TimS said:

    Heathener said:

    Chameleon said:

    Taz said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Loads of yellow diamonds in and around Axminster.

    Yet to see a single election poster.

    There's not much point here as the odds of anyone other than Labour winning are not far off Bootle territory.
    I don't know if @Dumbosaurus has seen many posters in his part of the seat but nothing at all round my part. Safe labour seat.

    Lots of stuff on twitter of Luke Akehurst campaigning and eating his way around North Durham. Little else.

    You wouldn't know there was an election on if you didn't know !!!
    Lots of Labour and LibDem posters up in Didcot and Wantage, supposedly a safe Tory seat which both parties have as long-shot possibilities. I've yet to see a Tory poster.
    If they're both working it then a very strong chance Tories come through the middle.
    Yep. There's a disaster unfolding there because neither will seemingly back down. I know the seat very well and friends are perplexed about who to vote for. The MRP says the Libs are in the box seat, so Labour should probably back down.
    Same thing in my Newton Abbot constituency. If they could sort it they would easily unseat the incumbent tory (Anne Morris)
    It really is silly behaviour. They need to sort it out.
    Newton Abbot is an obvious Lib Dem target and they were second in 2019 and control Teignbridge council. I think in most cases like this voters will know the right answer.
    Thanks for this Tim.

    Despite the boundary changes, you’re right although it has been genuinely confusing until the last few days.
    I pointed this out to Heathener way back toward the beginning of the year. It’s obvious that the LibDems are the challengers there.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,407
    edited June 12
    IanB2 said:

    MikeL said:

    This is exactly what I thought. Sky wasn't around when he was in his teens.



    Andrew Neil
    @afneil
    ·
    3h
    I launched Sky TV in 1989, by which time Starmer was 27 — so obviously he didn’t have Sky growing up. Nobody his age did since it didn’t exist.
    Also, as the first Executive Chairman of Sky I can tell you with authority that working class families were the first to adopt it.

    Not sure what the point is here.

    It's Sunak who said he didn't have Sky in his teens.

    Sunak was born in May 1980. Sky TV launched in Feb 1989 so he would have been 8 at the time.

    Live Premier League on Sky began in Aug 1992 when Sunak was 12.
    It was a trap he shouldn’t have fallen into. His point - essentially that he didn’t have a spoiled childhood - is a perfectly reasonable one; even if his parents were comfortably off, there are plenty of children from such backgrounds who don’t get everything they want. Many well off parents restrict their children’s access to phones and computer games and TV.

    But the journalist knew that pushing for a specific example of something he didn’t get would generate a story, since any one thing he cited would sound ridiculous when considered against the experience of children growing up in genuine poverty or neglect. A more able political would have managed to avoid being specific and retreated to the general.
    Not sure about that, if he had avoided any specifics then the interviewer would start saying, “are you not telling us anything in particular because you actually didn’t miss out on anything”. He couldn’t win, he was straightforward (I thought we wanted that in politicians) and so he gets pilloried.

    Say nothing “Rishi had everything as a kid”, say something “oh poor little Rishi didn’t have x, well we didn’t have x or y or z”.

    It’s the wankery of political interviews that people should have a bigger problem with.
  • PedestrianRockPedestrianRock Posts: 578
    Energy policy answer is decent there
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,304

    This answer from Starmer on supporting Corbyn is surprisingly honest. I'm not sure it will go down well though.

    There was an answer in there?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,350
    edited June 12

    Starmer getting skewered on why he changed his pledges. Dangerous ground he is on here.

    What's that noise? Oh yeah, its Owen Jones shouting at his telly

    That's called a day ending in y...
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,546
    edited June 12

    https://x.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1800939951309156548

    Labour leads Reform UK by 10% among those who primarily read the news from The Telegraph.

    Westminster VI, Telegraph Readers (7-10 June):

    Labour 36%
    Reform UK 26%
    Conservative 20%
    Liberal Democrat 7%
    Other 3%
    Don't Know 7%


    Pretty astonishing numbers. It's likely they will endorse a party who are 3rd amongst its own readers - unless they break for Reform!

    Blimey yes, worth using my dail pic on:

    image
    Daily Mail ffs? Daily Express! Daily Everything... and by a wide margin.

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/westminster-voting-intention-by-media-consumption-7-10-june/
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,557
    Military trucks in central Odessa
  • I've just realised that as I don't have a TV Licence, I don't think I can legally really get involved in any election discussions. I can't watch any debates, even if the broadcasters stream them live on YouTube. I can't watch any election night programmes, even if the broadcasters stream them live on YouTube. So, unless you fund the BBC, the election is difficult to follow.
    Obviously, there's a thing called the internet, but the TV Licence is a bar to easy political news access.

    You can’t watch the BBC iPlayer without a licence, and you can’t livestream Sky, ITV etc. without one, but you can watch Sky or ITV on demand/catch-up, I believe.
    Absolutely. Anything that's not BBC/iPlayer or anything broadcast live via a recognisably a TV broadcaster is fine, so any catch up or on demand is fine, but not +1.
    I'm just commenting that you can't really legally watch live politics. Same as if there's a national emergency, and you wanted to watch the news to keep abreast of it or get public service announcements, legally you couldn't watch it.
    I just find it a bit grim that you have to fund the BBC to watch a live party leader debate on Sky News. That just seems unfair.
    I don’t see any need to watch live politics. You are not less informed about the candidates because you watched a debate 2 hours later.

    If there was a national emergency, there would be free, live streams on GOV.UK to watch.
    But what if you don't have access to the Internet?
    I know, I know, "radio".
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,350
    edited June 12
    boulay said:

    IanB2 said:

    MikeL said:

    This is exactly what I thought. Sky wasn't around when he was in his teens.



    Andrew Neil
    @afneil
    ·
    3h
    I launched Sky TV in 1989, by which time Starmer was 27 — so obviously he didn’t have Sky growing up. Nobody his age did since it didn’t exist.
    Also, as the first Executive Chairman of Sky I can tell you with authority that working class families were the first to adopt it.

    Not sure what the point is here.

    It's Sunak who said he didn't have Sky in his teens.

    Sunak was born in May 1980. Sky TV launched in Feb 1989 so he would have been 8 at the time.

    Live Premier League on Sky began in Aug 1992 when Sunak was 12.
    It was a trap he shouldn’t have fallen into. His point - essentially that he didn’t have a spoiled childhood - is a perfectly reasonable one; even if his parents were comfortably off, there are plenty of children from such backgrounds who don’t get everything they want. Many well off parents restrict their children’s access to phones and computer games and TV.

    But the journalist knew that pushing for a specific example of something he didn’t get would generate a story, since any one thing he cited would sound ridiculous when considered against the experience of children growing up in genuine poverty or neglect. A more able political would have managed to avoid being specific and retreated to the general.
    Not sure about that, if he had avoided any specifics then the interviewer would start saying, “are you not telling us anything in particular because you actually didn’t miss out on anything”. He couldn’t win, he was straightforward (I thought we wanted that in politicians) and so he gets pilloried.

    Say nothing “Rishi had everything as a kid”, say something “oh poor little Rishi didn’t have x, well we didn’t have x or y or z”.

    It’s the wankery of political interviews that people should have a bigger problem with.
    We are just in the age of gotcha interviews. That's all we get. Gotchas or interrupt-atons.

    It is why Eddie Spheriods and Squeaky Osborne type podcasts are interesting.

    The thing I would say Liz Truss interview with Triggernometry was far more insightful, not in a good way, as the more they let her speak, the more crazy she sounded.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 17,992
    viewcode said:

    chrisb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    As I understand it, this is not a criminal offense. There is no law against "insider betting".

    However, this is a spectacularly stupid thing to do, and is morally pretty shitty.

    https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2005/19/section/42
    https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2005/19/notes/division/5/3/7/1/7
    OK, I'll bite. He had private information as to the outcome. He did not influence the outcome nor did he deceive the bookmaker. Does this fall within the "normal, everyday meaning" of cheating as stated in (deep breath) Schedule 6, Part 3, Section 42, subsection 163 of the explanatory notes of the Gambling Act 2005?
    Ultimately it was still Sunak's decision, and at that point, Sunak could still have had second thoughts and changed his mind.

    I agree it looks bad, and that it looks as though Sunak's inner circle are more concerned with finding petty ways to enrich themselves, rather than fighting the election.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,728

    If you were a Tory canvasser in Godalming, and you thought your canvass returns were better than the opinion polls, and you placed a bet on Hunt to hold his seat - would that be "insider betting"?
    If you were a Tory MP who knew how to count, and had spent years in the Commons tea rooms talking with your colleagues, and you placed a bet on the next Conservative Party leader - would that be "insider betting"?
    If you were on a relatively obscure political betting website (less than 10K views on most threads, how many of those are me and Scott?) and a Tory canvasser shares their view that it's going to be a terrrrible night for the Tories - would that be "insider betting"?

    I think we want to be careful before we kick up a fuss about this, and give the gambling companies a reason to cancel winning bets. They already have a lot stacked in their favour.

    Knowing something for sure isn’t at all comparable to those situations.
  • PedestrianRockPedestrianRock Posts: 578

    This answer from Starmer on supporting Corbyn is surprisingly honest. I'm not sure it will go down well though.

    There was an answer in there?
    I think "I knew we weren't going to win in 2019 all along" is more of an admission than I thought he'd make.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,331
    Unpopular said:

    Those stage lights are making Starmer look washed out. Rigby is also giving him a good mauling.

    He looks quite pink on my telly. I suspect it varies depending on how your telly is calibrated.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,640

    EPG said:

    Talking of dickheads...

    Police say they are aware an internet prankster has seemingly been registered to stand as a general election candidate in multiple constituencies.

    The name of YouTuber Niko Omilana, who stood in the London mayoral election three years ago, is on the ballot as an independent in at least 11 constituencies.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cm55x95xj54o

    I never knew it was illegal to stand in more than one constituency. Seems a bit much.
    Electoral commission cites 1983 edition of Representation of the People Act.

    Note that in 1918 general election, Eamon de Valera ran for and was elected SF MP for East Clare (his home seat which he was still representing as FF TD until 1959 when he was elected President) and also Mayo East, where he defeated John Dillon who was leader (briefly) of the rival (and soon defunct) Irish Parliamentary Party.
    I know you and I have each been following the Irish local elections this weekend - where plural candidacies are very much a thing.

    https://www.rte.ie/news/elections-2024/2024/0610/1454032-election-2024-south-dublin-co-council-results-round-up/
    "Former MMA (mixed martial arts) fighter and Independent Councillor Patrick Holohan enjoyed huge success, topping the vote in Tallaght South and claiming a second seat in Tallaght Central. This creates an interesting situation for South Dublin Council, as Mr Holohan will now have the option to co-opt someone to occupy the seat he chooses not to take. However, they will have to be ratified by their fellow councillors."
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,030

    On the Green Party manifesto:

    Does "ban on all blood sports" include fishing?

    How about PMQ?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,390
    edited June 12
    IanB2 said:

    MikeL said:

    This is exactly what I thought. Sky wasn't around when he was in his teens.



    Andrew Neil
    @afneil
    ·
    3h
    I launched Sky TV in 1989, by which time Starmer was 27 — so obviously he didn’t have Sky growing up. Nobody his age did since it didn’t exist.
    Also, as the first Executive Chairman of Sky I can tell you with authority that working class families were the first to adopt it.

    Not sure what the point is here.

    It's Sunak who said he didn't have Sky in his teens.

    Sunak was born in May 1980. Sky TV launched in Feb 1989 so he would have been 8 at the time.

    Live Premier League on Sky began in Aug 1992 when Sunak was 12.
    It was a trap he shouldn’t have fallen into. His point - essentially that he didn’t have a spoiled childhood - is a perfectly reasonable one; even if his parents were comfortably off, there are plenty of children from such backgrounds who don’t get everything they want. Many well off parents restrict their children’s access to phones and computer games and TV.

    But the journalist knew that pushing for a specific example of something he didn’t get would generate a story, since any one thing he cited would sound ridiculous when considered against the experience of children growing up in genuine poverty or neglect. A more able political would have managed to avoid being specific and retreated to the general.
    To be fair, Rishi would have been one of the poorer pupils at Winchester. Not skint, but more like Oliver Quick in Saltburn

    Indeed the more I think of it, Saltburn is a very prophetic allegory. A grand old pile full of languid aristocrats who meet their fates when a social climber infiltrates their establishment. The final scene starring Sunak doesn't bear thinking about.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,407

    Unpopular said:

    Those stage lights are making Starmer look washed out. Rigby is also giving him a good mauling.

    He looks quite pink on my telly. I suspect it varies depending on how your telly is calibrated.
    He’s a gammon?
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,777
    TimS said:

    FPT:

    Just looked at the voting results of my local commune in France at the Euros. I have some interesting neighbours.

    The French party names are hilarious. Not only do they change constantly, but they give themselves special ones for Euro elections.

    Fortunately RN (aka "La France Revient!") didn't come first, that was Macron's lot ("Besoin d'Europe") with 23% (16 votes), then the socialists on 22% (15), but Marine was third (8) then the Liste Asselineau-Frexit (6), and after the Greens and Melenchon's Corbynistas, even Zemmour ("La France Fiere") got 4 votes.

    So there are at least 18 people in our little collection of hamlets who opted for populist right or far right parties. And 6 who want France to leave the EU!

    One sole voter opted for the totally normal sounding "Pour un monde sans frontieres ni patrons, urgence revolution!" party. I'd love to know who that was.

    Here's the interactive map so you can explore. The sea of brown over France is where the RN won.

    https://www.lemonde.fr/les-decodeurs/article/2024/06/09/la-carte-des-resultats-des-elections-europeennes-2024-par-commune-en-france_6238291_4355771.html

    I think Macron’s right.

    Provided Democracy is sufficiently safeguarded, let these clowns, bullshitters and simplists try to govern.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084

    Unpopular said:

    Those stage lights are making Starmer look washed out. Rigby is also giving him a good mauling.

    Properly mauled already, it’s only 2 questions in.

    The problem is he’s waffley.
    First time I’ve ever watched Starmer. I think he’s doing rather well.

    I’m impressed.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,705
    kle4 said:

    Green Party Manifesto 2024 Part 3
    Making work fair

    • Workers being exploited. Repeal anti-union legislation. 10:1 pay ratio for all private and public sector organisations.
    • Minimum wage of £15, employment allowance to 10k, full employment rights day one
    • Pay gap protections
    • Support 4 day weeks
    • Giving everyone a fairer, greener deal
    • Universal credit up 40 a week
    • End 5 week wait for benefits
    • Abolish 2 child benefit gap
    • Carers increased at least 10% a month
    • Scrap bedroom tax
    • ‘long term’ push for universal basic income
    A fairer and greener approach to public finances
    • Investment income taxed same rate as earned income.
    • No increase in basic rate of income tax
    • Rejecting ‘straitjacket of conventional fiscal rules’ (note – sounds like something Truss would say)
    • Wealth tax – 1% for those with assets above 10m, 2% for those over a billion
    • Reform inheritance tax to be more fair (note – no idea what this means in practice)
    • Green party always opposed council tax – long term goal land value tax
    • Windfall tax increase for oil and gas
    • Carbon tax – 120 per tonne, to 500 per tonne within 10 years – ‘deliberately’ to make it cheaper to reduce emissions than pay tax. Estimate it will raise £80bn by end of parliament
    • ‘never allow an obsession with fiscal rules to stop us investing’ (note - !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! So basically if something looks like a bad idea, never mind)
    Brining nature back to life
    • Nature more than just its economic value.
    • Water privtisation a disaster.
    • New right to nature act – legal personhood to nature (note – and that helps things how? – says cannot be exploited for financial gain, does that mean farming is out?)
    • 30% land and seas set aside
    • everyone can live 15 minutes from a nature rich green space
    • 3bn annually to support returning to nature
    Protecting animals
    • Commission on animal protection
    • ban on all blood suports
    • new laws to tackle when companion animals are stolen (note - gimmick, why is a new law needed?)
    • 'work toward' ban on lab monkey testing
    • oppose badger culling
    • push for ban on bottom trawling
    There's some more sensible stuff in there (like taxing investment income at the same rate as earned income), alongside some things which are simply bonkers.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,613
    Green Party Manifesto Part 5
    Sharing a fairer green welcome
    • Fast and fair asylum process – and permitted to work during process
    • Abolish ten year route to settlement
    • End to migration detention as migration is not a criminal offence under any circumstances (note – so…no limit on migration at all?)
    • All visa holding residents have right to vote in all elections (note – why? Does any country do this?)
    • Dismantle home office and create department of migration (note why? If you can’t detain illegal migrants why have any rules?)
    • Remove minimum income requirements
    Access to art sport and culture for all
    • 5bn investment in community support
    • Reinstate second part of Leveson review
    • Exempt cultural events from VAT
    • Enable local authorities to maintain key sporting infrastructure including pools (note – they already can, they just don’t have money for it)
    • No individual or company to own more than 20% of media market
    • Bringing Justice to crime and policing
    • 2.5bn on courts (note – good idea)
    • End to routine stop and search
    • Not scrapping PCCs like LDs
    • Restorative justice
    • Misogyny to be a hate crime
    • Decriminalise sex work
    • 11bn in ministry of justice – legal aid, repair court buildings, more judges
    Building a fairer, greener, safer world
    • Support Ukraine (note – genuinely surprised me)
    • Immediate bilateral ceasefire in Gaza (permanent one, not sure how that is enforced)
    • Recognise state of Palestine
    • End uk arms exports and cooperation with Israel
    • High share of historic global emissions means uK has responsibility to support others
    • 1% GDP on aid by 2033
    • Law against ecocide
    • Ensure people of the global south take lead on how aid is spent (and direct support to populations not corrupt governments). (note – what if the global south have different ideas about things?)
    • Supports reparations for slave trade
    • Rejoin the EU ‘as soon as domestic political situation is favourable and EU member states are willing’ (note – oddly coy – this is a theoretical Green government, why would it not be the right time)
    • Dismantle nuclear weapons
    • Does NOT commit to leave NATO, but to reform its operations.
    Coda
    • Brief ‘statistical index’ (note – always makes me feel better) and an epilogue
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,304
    Starmer confirms Welsh style Garden tax.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,390

    TimS said:

    FPT:

    Just looked at the voting results of my local commune in France at the Euros. I have some interesting neighbours.

    The French party names are hilarious. Not only do they change constantly, but they give themselves special ones for Euro elections.

    Fortunately RN (aka "La France Revient!") didn't come first, that was Macron's lot ("Besoin d'Europe") with 23% (16 votes), then the socialists on 22% (15), but Marine was third (8) then the Liste Asselineau-Frexit (6), and after the Greens and Melenchon's Corbynistas, even Zemmour ("La France Fiere") got 4 votes.

    So there are at least 18 people in our little collection of hamlets who opted for populist right or far right parties. And 6 who want France to leave the EU!

    One sole voter opted for the totally normal sounding "Pour un monde sans frontieres ni patrons, urgence revolution!" party. I'd love to know who that was.

    Here's the interactive map so you can explore. The sea of brown over France is where the RN won.

    https://www.lemonde.fr/les-decodeurs/article/2024/06/09/la-carte-des-resultats-des-elections-europeennes-2024-par-commune-en-france_6238291_4355771.html

    I think Macron’s right.

    Provided Democracy is sufficiently safeguarded, let these clowns, bullshitters and simplists try to govern.
    Macron watched Sunak call a surprise election, and said "hold my pint..."
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,037

    https://x.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1800939951309156548

    Labour leads Reform UK by 10% among those who primarily read the news from The Telegraph.

    Westminster VI, Telegraph Readers (7-10 June):

    Labour 36%
    Reform UK 26%
    Conservative 20%
    Liberal Democrat 7%
    Other 3%
    Don't Know 7%


    Pretty astonishing numbers. It's likely they will endorse a party who are 3rd amongst its own readers - unless they break for Reform!

    Edit: blast! more work required. Just a mo!

    image
    Daily Mail ffs? Daily Express! Daily Everything... and by a wide margin.
    All of these sub samples are from a poll with a 26 point lead and the Tories on 19. They are utterly unsurprising in that light.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,613
    Conclusion on Green Manifesto

    I’m not sure saying everything is fairer and greener makes it fairer and greener.

    Much shorter manifesto, so more readable technically, but it felt longer.

    Not as many promises and claims as others, but those it does make are huge.

    Not much going after Labour, which is a surprise as going after same voters.

    Mostly fine for what they are trying to do, but some very extreme stuff here and there.

    Give it a D, niche but some people will love it being more fiery.

    For me, it made me more extreme than I was on things like migration!

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,350
    edited June 12

    Starmer confirms Welsh style Garden tax.

    Good job I built that bunker when Trump got in....
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,276
    stodge said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    I was wondering where the Labour activists in East London would go given there aren't too many marginal seats in the vicinity (apart from East Ham and its 33,000 majority of course).

    Would they go to Romford or to Hornchurch & Upminster?

    It seems not - the Newham Mayor and the Labour candidates for Stratford & Bow and West Ham & Beckton have headed to Colchester.

    https://www.opennewham.co.uk/news/the-west-ham-and-beckton-campaign-is-getting-personal

    James Cracknell, the new Conservative candidate, is defending a 9,400 majority - Labour needs a swing of 8.8% to take the seat so should be quite achievable on current numbers. It is the 136th most marginal Conservvative seat (or the 236th safest if you prefer).

    A very thin excuse for a jolly if you ask me, Stodge.

    Colchester can be pretty wild on a Wednesday night.
    You seem to speak from experience.

    I wouldn't know - one place I wouldn't be next Wednesday is Ascot. I can't remember if Flat racing was your interest or whether it was the jumps.

    It'll be a welcome break from the election to do some proper punting.
    To me the flat was always just a way of passing time through the summer until the proper stuff started.

    Always hated Ascot. The rebuild was a disaster. For flat racing, you can't see anything unless you are in the Royal Box. Perversely it wasn't so bad for the jumps because you had such small crowds you could easily find a decent spot. They always treated us jumps fans as plebs though, so I generally avoided the place.

    I was always a Sandown man. Has everything, although it is probably due for a rebuild soon.
  • The_WoodpeckerThe_Woodpecker Posts: 450
    EPG said:

    EPG said:

    Talking of dickheads...

    Police say they are aware an internet prankster has seemingly been registered to stand as a general election candidate in multiple constituencies.

    The name of YouTuber Niko Omilana, who stood in the London mayoral election three years ago, is on the ballot as an independent in at least 11 constituencies.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cm55x95xj54o

    I never knew it was illegal to stand in more than one constituency. Seems a bit much.
    Electoral commission cites 1983 edition of Representation of the People Act.

    Note that in 1918 general election, Eamon de Valera ran for and was elected SF MP for East Clare (his home seat which he was still representing as FF TD until 1959 when he was elected President) and also Mayo East, where he defeated John Dillon who was leader (briefly) of the rival (and soon defunct) Irish Parliamentary Party.
    I know you and I have each been following the Irish local elections this weekend - where plural candidacies are very much a thing.

    https://www.rte.ie/news/elections-2024/2024/0610/1454032-election-2024-south-dublin-co-council-results-round-up/
    "Former MMA (mixed martial arts) fighter and Independent Councillor Patrick Holohan enjoyed huge success, topping the vote in Tallaght South and claiming a second seat in Tallaght Central. This creates an interesting situation for South Dublin Council, as Mr Holohan will now have the option to co-opt someone to occupy the seat he chooses not to take. However, they will have to be ratified by their fellow councillors."
    What happens if an Independent councilor dies? By-election or does some randomer get co-opted in?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,304
    Starmer does not rule out fuel tax rises.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,407

    Starmer confirms Welsh style Garden tax.

    What is a “Welsh style garden” and do enough people have them for the tax to cover the spending plans?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,037

    Starmer confirms Welsh style Garden tax.

    Whats a garden tax?
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,769
    Heathener said:

    Unpopular said:

    Those stage lights are making Starmer look washed out. Rigby is also giving him a good mauling.

    Properly mauled already, it’s only 2 questions in.

    The problem is he’s waffley.
    First time I’ve ever watched Starmer. I think he’s doing rather well.

    I’m impressed.
    He's doing taxes very strongly. Big applause with his "the Tories have no right to talk about tax" line
This discussion has been closed.