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When political betting can get you into trouble – politicalbetting.com
When political betting can get you into trouble – politicalbetting.com
The Gambling Commission is understood to have launched probe after Craig Williams, PM's parliamentary private secretary, placed bet with Ladbrokes on Sunday 19 May. Sunak made surprise announcement that a general election would be held on 4 July just three days later.
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If you are anywhere near government decision making with rumours of when election is you don't go placing bets on this stuff. Its just moronic. Also do they not realise that bookies require KYC and are constantly checking for conflicts of interest these days. Hence why the footballers have all got done.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/society/survey-results/daily/2024/06/12/69919/2
If you had a child of school age and could afford it, would you send them to private school?
Obviously, the "and could afford it" bit is a bit contentious but nevertheless, the political split is as you would expect (Conservative voters more likely to say they would). However, the region split is curious with Londoners a lot more likely to say they would than everywhere else. Given how strong Labour are in London, there must be quite a big difference in responses from Labour supporters there compared with elsewhere:
Rishi Sunak mocked with brutal fundraiser to help him pay for Sky TV - via
@DaveBurke12
The fundraiser says: "Rishi is now facing more hardship. He is down to just one helicopter and he could soon be out of a job. Forced to live on just a PM's pension and quite a few tens of millions in the bank, Rishi could once again be deprived of Sky TV. So I am asking you for help."
(The cash raised will go to food bank charity the Trussell Trust)
Providing fairer, greener homes for all
- 1m on council waiting lists. 8.3x annual earnings to buy a home.
- 150k social homes a year and end right to buy
- Rent controls. End no fault evictions
- Transform planning so new developments come with access to services and green spaces (note: rules exist now, not always well done – how will this be different?)
- Right homes, right place, right price charter – simultaneously protect green space, reduce climate emissions, tackle fuel poverty, and genuinely affordable homes (note – it’s a miracle!)
- 29bn over 5 years to insulate homes. 17bn of which is for private homes. 9bn for heating systems. 7bn to adapt for over heating. 4bn for insulation of public buildings.
- Financing will come from ‘common sense changes in each housing sector’ (note – this may be the most worthless comment I’ve ever seen)
- Nothing on making building easier unless its social housing. The bit on planning policy seems like it has no idea how planning is already taking place.
Powering up fairer, greener energy- 70% wind power by 2030
- No new oil and gas licences
- Communities to own their energy forces, using profit to reduce bills (note – er, what?)
- Phase out fossil fuels
- Nuclear power is bad because it diverts investment away from renewables (note – would people automatically invest in wind and solar if they could not support nuclear?). Also nuclear weapons are bad.
- Need to learn lessons of 1980s – just transition led by workers and unions to reap rewards of shift to green energy (note – what if workers and unions don’t support your ideas?)
- 4bn a year in training for transition
- Mandate use of solar panels on new homes (note – not a bad idea)
- End de facto ban on onshore wind
- Crown Estate into public ownership
- End ‘greenwashing’ (note – not shore what this suggests in terms of action)
- Supports expansion of grid capacity (note – local people object to this, what then?)
Creating a farier, greener, economyComedy gold.
No wonder that Tories aren't crowing about Brexit when only a third of their own supporters think it as has done more good than harm.
And opposition parties should note that this sort of polling cannot be ignored forever.
Just looked at the voting results of my local commune in France at the Euros. I have some interesting neighbours.
The French party names are hilarious. Not only do they change constantly, but they give themselves special ones for Euro elections.
Fortunately RN (aka "La France Revient!") didn't come first, that was Macron's lot ("Besoin d'Europe") with 23% (16 votes), then the socialists on 22% (15), but Marine was third (8) then the Liste Asselineau-Frexit (6), and after the Greens and Melenchon's Corbynistas, even Zemmour ("La France Fiere") got 4 votes.
So there are at least 18 people in our little collection of hamlets who opted for populist right or far right parties. And 6 who want France to leave the EU!
One sole voter opted for the totally normal sounding "Pour un monde sans frontieres ni patrons, urgence revolution!" party. I'd love to know who that was.
Here's the interactive map so you can explore. The sea of brown over France is where the RN won.
https://www.lemonde.fr/les-decodeurs/article/2024/06/09/la-carte-des-resultats-des-elections-europeennes-2024-par-commune-en-france_6238291_4355771.html
It can’t have been ‘July’ as that was higher IIRC.
It must have been ‘July to September’ ?
(Drafted that sentence carefully).
On London, 10% of kids in the capital are educated privately (v 6% nationally), which might go some way to explaining the difference in the figures.
As PPS to the Prime Minister and candidate for a seat with a 30% majority, it's possible that a few hundred quid is more than his reputation and career are worth.
Obviously, there's a thing called the internet, but the TV Licence is a bar to easy political news access.
REJOIN
Sunak is rubbish, but is clearly surrounded by people of low IQ.
https://x.com/craig4monty/status/1800936242487623943?s=46
https://x.com/YouGov/status/1800918903612113083?t=i3c6XB-zh8nII-ZdTY9pyQ&s=19
https://therejoineuparty.com/general-election-2024/candidates/
https://youtu.be/_dnBBiEFogs?si=fV3r2NyunjHpKAWX
It's all about a lot of people dressing up strangely and making fools of themselves - okay.
It's dominated by two big powerhouses but sometimes smaller groups win big races - right.
There's a lot of betting involved but the bookies usually end up on the right side - perhaps.
The King is an important part of the beginning and end of the whole process - seriously.
By the end of it, everyone's glad it's over but secretly is looking forward to the next one - really.
“He’s so dense, light bends round him.”
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rosie_Ruiz
See also Frank Mesa. And stacks of others.
But what can I do. It’s not like you’re my sockpoppet
However, this is a spectacularly stupid thing to do, and is morally pretty shitty.
https://www.marathoninvestigation.com/2024/01/runners-world-editorr-scrutiny.html
He'd better hope someone commits news in one of tonight's TV specials, to keep him off the front of the Shropshire Star.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/calcwork23.py?seat=Montgomeryshire+and+Glyndwr
Police say they are aware an internet prankster has seemingly been registered to stand as a general election candidate in multiple constituencies.
The name of YouTuber Niko Omilana, who stood in the London mayoral election three years ago, is on the ballot as an independent in at least 11 constituencies.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cm55x95xj54o
The party is quite open about Rejoin as a longer term objective, but a lot of relationship repairs need doing first.
I wonder if the imminent destruction of the Conservative Party will be noticed by Right wing Populists on the continent, it might make them less anti-EU. Moan about it a bit but not actually do anything about it, the historic Tory position until 2016.
Rent controls and no ability of landlords to evict tenants. That's a recipe for landlords to behave badly
Making work fair
- Workers being exploited. Repeal anti-union legislation. 10:1 pay ratio for all private and public sector organisations.
- Minimum wage of £15, employment allowance to 10k, full employment rights day one
- Pay gap protections
- Support 4 day weeks
- Giving everyone a fairer, greener deal
- Universal credit up 40 a week
- End 5 week wait for benefits
- Abolish 2 child benefit gap
- Carers increased at least 10% a month
- Scrap bedroom tax
- ‘long term’ push for universal basic income
A fairer and greener approach to public finances- Investment income taxed same rate as earned income.
- No increase in basic rate of income tax
- Rejecting ‘straitjacket of conventional fiscal rules’ (note – sounds like something Truss would say)
- Wealth tax – 1% for those with assets above 10m, 2% for those over a billion
- Reform inheritance tax to be more fair (note – no idea what this means in practice)
- Green party always opposed council tax – long term goal land value tax
- Windfall tax increase for oil and gas
- Carbon tax – 120 per tonne, to 500 per tonne within 10 years – ‘deliberately’ to make it cheaper to reduce emissions than pay tax. Estimate it will raise £80bn by end of parliament
- ‘never allow an obsession with fiscal rules to stop us investing’ (note - !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! So basically if something looks like a bad idea, never mind)
Brining nature back to life- Nature more than just its economic value.
- Water privtisation a disaster.
- New right to nature act – legal personhood to nature (note – and that helps things how? – says cannot be exploited for financial gain, does that mean farming is out?)
- 30% land and seas set aside
- everyone can live 15 minutes from a nature rich green space
- 3bn annually to support returning to nature
Protecting animalsIf my seat goes Lab it would mean that Starmer has a 251 seat majority rather than a mere 250, so it matters not.
Does "ban on all blood sports" include fishing?
https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2005/19/notes/division/5/3/7/1/7
a ban on all hunting in the first year of a new parliament. This includes trophy hunting, trail
hunting, where dogs are used to track foxes, and the commercial shooting of game birds.
'Yes. Boy, we're told.'
'Thought of a name yet?'
'Leo.'
'Oh, nice. And slightly unusual.'
'Well, it's a family thing. One of Cherie's favorite ancestors.'
And the Irishman disappeared quietly to find a bookie laying the names of the PM's next born. Morally dubious? I can tell you he would have been cheered to the rafters in Ireland.
However, if I were close to the PM, I would not be betting on the date of the election.
I was wondering where the Labour activists in East London would go given there aren't too many marginal seats in the vicinity (apart from East Ham and its 33,000 majority of course).
Would they go to Romford or to Hornchurch & Upminster?
It seems not - the Newham Mayor and the Labour candidates for Stratford & Bow and West Ham & Beckton have headed to Colchester.
https://www.opennewham.co.uk/news/the-west-ham-and-beckton-campaign-is-getting-personal
James Cracknell, the new Conservative candidate, is defending a 9,400 majority - Labour needs a swing of 8.8% to take the seat so should be quite achievable on current numbers. It is the 136th most marginal Conservvative seat (or the 236th safest if you prefer).