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Conservative Manifesto 2024 Part 2
Our plan to cut taxes and protect pensions

• Gave support through Covid. Once inflation under control will cut taxes
  
• Cut NI to 6% by 2027
  
• 35% increase in national living wage since 2010
  
• Cutting tax for pensioners
  
• Further 6bn a year on tackling tax avoidance and evasion (note – both? Why not before now?)
  

Our plan to support families

• 30 free hours of childcare
  
• Family hub in every local authority (think the LDs had basically the same idea)
  
• Online safety act promoted
  
• Ban mobile phones in schools
  
• Raise child benefit threshold
  

Our plan to get more people into work and build a fairer welfare system

• Growth in benefits unsustainable
  
• Reform disability benefits
  
• Moderate issues to mean tailored support, not signed off work – new fit note system
  
• Accelerate rollout of universal credit (note – this still isn’t complete!?)
  
• Sanctions for refusing to take up suitable jobs
  

Our plan to give young people the opportunities and skills they need

• 2 hours of PE every week, increase funding for competitive sport
  
• Advanced british standard, building on A level and T level (note – I have no idea what a T Level is)
  
• Legislation for register of children not in school.
  
• Schools must share materials on sex education – age limits on what kids can be taught
  
• Expand ‘strong’ academy trusts
  
• National service -young people will be given a choice to do x or y (note – but not a choice not to do it)
  
• 15 new schools for children with SEND
  
• Close university courses with worst outcomes – excessive drop out rates or laeve students worse off (note – how to judge that? 10 years later?
  
• 
  

Our plan to secure our nation from global uncertainty

• 2.5% on defence in 2030
  
• Support trident
  
• Reduced Chinese influence
  
• ‘chased dirty money out of the uk’ (note – this is oddly emotive and nonspecific)
  
• Talking up AUKUS
  
• Defend against Iran and Houti
  
• Veterans pledge – minister in Cabinet, 10m office of veteran affairs, visa fee waiver for commonwealth personnel, cut cost of veterans railcard, enshrine veterans rights in law
  
• Ensure veterans id are valid in elections
  
• New procurement model (note – that will solve it after all this time!)
  
• Return to 0.7% for international development when fiscal circumstances allow
  
• Statutory footing for envoy for freedom of belief etc
  
• Lot more detail on working with partners than LD manifesto
  
• Minister for british citizens oversea (note – classic ‘create a new role’ fluff)
  

Malmesbury said:

DavidL said:

SouthamObserver said:

The anti-Tory party is back and it is more powerful, more informed and more motivated than it has ever been before. If the YouGov numbers are repeated elsewhere I will finally believe in Canada.

I'm pretty confident it exists. My son's girlfriend and her family live there.

Unlike Australia, which is obviously ficticious.

Well, obviously. How on earth could people live upside down all the time? Its right up there with spaghetti trees.

algarkirk said:

Tweedledee said:

Leon said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Heathener said:

YouGov has dropped, which can be said for Labour’s share, but Cons on 18% is staggering.

📈📉NEW POLL
@YouGov


Labour lead at 20 points

🔴LAB: 38% (-3)
🔵CON: 18% (-1)
🟣REF: 17% (+1)
🟠LDEM: 15% (+4)
🟢GRN: 8% (+1)

Terrible news for Labour as the gap with the Tories is closed by 2 points.

At this rate the gap will be closed in 10 weeks

/sarcasm

ANY poll which shows your party losing 3 points - ie outside the MOE - induces anxiety, if not panic, even if you are 298 points ahead. Why? Because it might be the start of a trend - and indeed this poll is just one of several which show a trend of Labour sliding

Its about 1-2 points a week so it’s hardly fast but (using this poll as a base) if Labour lose another 6 points in the 3 weeks to July 4 then, from being entirely dominant, they are on 32

And that says “hung Parliament”

In 2010 and 2017 the tories looked impregnable until they didn't. In 2010 especially people were saying "just MOE" without really noticing that the MOEs were all in the one direction. And Sunak is an arse, but by God so were Brown and Corbyn.

I have a tenner on NOM

Absolutely agree. It's maybe a long shot, but long shots win all the time.

Put together the pool of people who are currently DK, Reform and Tory and you have a group many millions strong who could be swirling around; if (big if) in the national mind it coalesces into a sense of a two horse race where 'Stop Labour' is the first priority for them then NOM could happen. This is not over.

LLG was UP 2% in this poll. That's a group many many millions strong swirling around.

Ghedebrav said:

viewcode said:

WhisperingOracle said:

I wonder if it might be that, whle many here , including me, weren't over-excited by the LD manifesto, they're quietly building a perception of themselves as both the more explicitly caring, and more fun party. The look on the bright side and make the best of it party, making Labour look more defensive.

Social care + friendly Ed Davey = Positive messaging, less emotionally cautious than Labour.

To make a semi-serious point for a moment. The Lib Dems are campaigning in images and they are all fun, happy ones. The Conservatives are campaigning in words and text (which can be fact checked and disputed) and it's images are sad and depressing. Perhaps the Libs have chanced upon an image-based approach that is more robust to FUD than other approaches.

Happy Davey days.

Tight seat?

DavidL said:

Malmesbury said:

DavidL said:

SouthamObserver said:

The anti-Tory party is back and it is more powerful, more informed and more motivated than it has ever been before. If the YouGov numbers are repeated elsewhere I will finally believe in Canada.

I'm pretty confident it exists. My son's girlfriend and her family live there.

Unlike Australia, which is obviously ficticious.

Well, obviously. How on earth could people live upside down all the time? Its right up there with spaghetti trees.

It’s the platypus nonsense that really does it for me. The egg laying mammal with a ducks beak and poisonous thumbs.

Malmesbury said:

DavidL said:

SouthamObserver said:

The anti-Tory party is back and it is more powerful, more informed and more motivated than it has ever been before. If the YouGov numbers are repeated elsewhere I will finally believe in Canada.

I'm pretty confident it exists. My son's girlfriend and her family live there.

Unlike Australia, which is obviously ficticious.

It’s the outrageous wildlife that shows the lie. Like anyone would live in a place where spiders are lethal?!

BartholomewRoberts said:

Leon said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Leon said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Heathener said:

YouGov has dropped, which can be said for Labour’s share, but Cons on 18% is staggering.

📈📉NEW POLL
@YouGov


Labour lead at 20 points

🔴LAB: 38% (-3)
🔵CON: 18% (-1)
🟣REF: 17% (+1)
🟠LDEM: 15% (+4)
🟢GRN: 8% (+1)

Terrible news for Labour as the gap with the Tories is closed by 2 points.

At this rate the gap will be closed in 10 weeks

/sarcasm

ANY poll which shows your party losing 3 points - ie outside the MOE - induces anxiety, if not panic, even if you are 298 points ahead. Why? Because it might be the start of a trend - and indeed this poll is just one of several which show a trend of Labour sliding

Its about 1-2 points a week so it’s hardly fast but (using this poll as a base) if Labour lose another 6 points in the 3 weeks to July 4 then, from being entirely dominant, they are on 32

And that says “hung Parliament”

What do you think MOE is?

Losing 3 points is well within MOE.

No it’s not. As I understand it from the great OGH a shift of 3 is notable and not necessarily MOE, and certainly not “well within”

You have misunderstood then as I am pretty sure OGH never said that as it isn't true.

I think the way it works is that each poll reading has a MOE of 3, so the MOE of the changes is about 4.5. (There's a moderate chance that the lass reading was too high and this one is too low. Or some of the change is real and some is MOE.)

Moral: we need more poll data.

The sub-samples - I know, usual health warning applies - in that YouGov are quite something. The Conservatives are fifth, behind the Greens as well as Reform, with voters under 50, and joint second with Reform (and some distance adrift of Labour) in the 50-64 bracket. They only lead amongst the over-65s, but even that cohort is now heavily split, with only 33% preferring Con.

Labour are coasting to a landslide with numbers like these. The Conservatives need the Reform vote to collapse like wet cardboard and swing heavily back to them to avoid a record defeat.

Farooq said:

biggles said:

Malmesbury said:

DavidL said:

SouthamObserver said:

The anti-Tory party is back and it is more powerful, more informed and more motivated than it has ever been before. If the YouGov numbers are repeated elsewhere I will finally believe in Canada.

I'm pretty confident it exists. My son's girlfriend and her family live there.

Unlike Australia, which is obviously ficticious.

It’s the outrageous wildlife that shows the lie. Like anyone would live in a place where spiders are lethal?!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spiders_of_Australia#:~:text=Most Australian spiders do not,that fail to cite evidence.

Pfft. As a great man once said, you can prove anything with facts.

wooliedyed said:

mickydroy said:

I have thought for a long while that Labour won't get 40% at the GE, 38% seems very realistic, but with the Torys at low 20s best, it won't matter a jot

It's not low 20s at best though, they've had 24s, 25, 26 with a variety of pollsters in the last 4 days and 28 last week. If they get towards 27, 28 then Labour on 38 would be an interesting situation. If YG and Redfield are right then yep, it's carnage time.
I think 40 25/26 is about right and a big landslide but no ELE

I'm not sure on the others, just don't see Labour breaking 40%

algarkirk said:

Tweedledee said:

Leon said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Heathener said:

YouGov has dropped, which can be said for Labour’s share, but Cons on 18% is staggering.

📈📉NEW POLL
@YouGov


Labour lead at 20 points

🔴LAB: 38% (-3)
🔵CON: 18% (-1)
🟣REF: 17% (+1)
🟠LDEM: 15% (+4)
🟢GRN: 8% (+1)

Terrible news for Labour as the gap with the Tories is closed by 2 points.

At this rate the gap will be closed in 10 weeks

/sarcasm

ANY poll which shows your party losing 3 points - ie outside the MOE - induces anxiety, if not panic, even if you are 298 points ahead. Why? Because it might be the start of a trend - and indeed this poll is just one of several which show a trend of Labour sliding

Its about 1-2 points a week so it’s hardly fast but (using this poll as a base) if Labour lose another 6 points in the 3 weeks to July 4 then, from being entirely dominant, they are on 32

And that says “hung Parliament”

In 2010 and 2017 the tories looked impregnable until they didn't. In 2010 especially people were saying "just MOE" without really noticing that the MOEs were all in the one direction. And Sunak is an arse, but by God so were Brown and Corbyn.

I have a tenner on NOM

Absolutely agree. It's maybe a long shot, but long shots win all the time.

Put together the pool of people who are currently DK, Reform and Tory and you have a group many millions strong who could be swirling around; if (big if) in the national mind it coalesces into a sense of a two horse race where 'Stop Labour' is the first priority for them then NOM could happen. This is not over.

NOM is 14/1 - Lib Dem to beat CON vote share is also 14/1 - maybe better to go for the latter, even if I think it's a long shot, because you can still win that in all scenarios ranging from Labour small majority to Labour Landslide?

TheScreamingEagles said:

People are still exceeding the daily photo allowance.

If this continues everybody's ability to post photos will be revoked.

It is your call.

So far, WilliamGlenn, Heathener, and KJH have exceeded their quota today.

I don't think I've seen a post by you recently TSE, so I'd just like to say welcome back. and hope you're recovering well.

TheScreamingEagles said:

WhisperingOracle said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

People are still exceeding the daily photo allowance.

If this continues everybody's ability to post photos will be revoked.

It is your call.

So far, WilliamGlenn, Heathener, and KJH have exceeded their quota today.

I'm hearing in the tones of the teacher who told us that a small minority were spoiling it for the rest of us.

"Do you want us to just do Maths today, and not have a chance to enjoy the sunshine outside ? Because that's what'll happen."

There's an alternative.

I can add a script that automatically bans people if they exceed the daily quota.

But..Mr Eagles !

It was him, Sir.

williamglenn said:

DougSeal said:

Using Baxter's special soup on those figures, sans tactical voting, and for those that believe, we get -

LAB 468
LIB 74
CON 63
SNP 14
Reform 5
PlaidC 4
Green 2

With no unified anti-Labour vote, Starmer could still get a huge majority even if Labour drop to the low-30s. He'd have no mandate for major constitutional reforms.

Almost identical figures from Electoral Calculus:

LAB 471
LIB 73
CON 61
SNP 14
Reform 5
PlaidC 4
Green 2

TheScreamingEagles said:

WhisperingOracle said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

People are still exceeding the daily photo allowance.

If this continues everybody's ability to post photos will be revoked.

It is your call.

So far, WilliamGlenn, Heathener, and KJH have exceeded their quota today.

I'm hearing in the tones of the teacher who told us that a small minority were spoiling it for the rest of us.

"Do you want us to just do Maths today, and not have a chance to enjoy the sunshine outside ? Because that's what'll happen."

There's an alternative.

I can add a script that automatically bans people if they exceed the daily quota.

I still don't even know how to post a picture.

maaarsh said:

Message that Labour have already won and you can be a bit more relaxed in your voting intention seems to be getting through, definite softening.

Still win an unbelievable landslide - but probably with fewer votes than his old boss and friend Jezza.

Hope so. @Quincel 's 8/1 tip on that was the best of the election so far

Leon said:

One of my least favourite genres of pb comments is people that come on “politicalbetting.com” a site dedicated to obsessive scrutiny of every possible aspect of politics and polls and elections and asking “why are you all getting excited by a poll?”

There are plenty of sites out there for people who AREN’T unhealthy over-interested in politics. If that’s your bag, try one of them

Yes, but you are one person. I think we need a poll on the topic of the least favourite genre of PB comments, so we can minutely dissect the results and the subsamples...

biggles said:

Imagine if Labour stays on 38 and Tories start eating up Reform.

Unlikely with so much hate for Sunak, but @leon is right, if we got to 38/32 we’d all be debating if Labour could cling on for a majority.

Can only happen if loads of grumpy Reform voters suddenly decide to back Sunak as lesser of two evils, rather than sticking to their guns, or sitting on their hands, or breaking for Labour in significant numbers.

I came into this expecting the Tory vote to firm up significantly, as the fact that voters now had to actually pick a Government rather than complain/emote came into view, but there's no sign of swing back so far - and that includes among the vital elderly vote.

Today is the anniversary of the 1987 general election.

OnlyLivingBoy said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

WhisperingOracle said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

People are still exceeding the daily photo allowance.

If this continues everybody's ability to post photos will be revoked.

It is your call.

So far, WilliamGlenn, Heathener, and KJH have exceeded their quota today.

I'm hearing in the tones of the teacher who told us that a small minority were spoiling it for the rest of us.

"Do you want us to just do Maths today, and not have a chance to enjoy the sunshine outside ? Because that's what'll happen."

There's an alternative.

I can add a script that automatically bans people if they exceed the daily quota.

I still don't even know how to post a picture.

___ _ _ _
|_ _| |_( )___ ___ __ _ ___ _ _| |
| || __|// __| / _ \/ _` / __| | | | |
| || |_ \__ \ | __/ (_| \__ \ |_| |_|
|___|\__| |___/ \___|\__,_|___/\__, (_)
|___/

If you use a non=proportional font...

PedestrianRock said:

By the way - some Exchange odds on Labour vote percentage for those of you who are down on it.

38-39.99% - 6.4
36-37.99% - 16.0
34-35.99% - 38.0
32-33.99% - 90.0
30-31.99% - 95.0

Leon may like those last couple

I've been tipping 38-39.99 for a couple of weeks and I bet the price has come in since then.

pigeon said:

biggles said:

Imagine if Labour stays on 38 and Tories start eating up Reform.

Unlikely with so much hate for Sunak, but @leon is right, if we got to 38/32 we’d all be debating if Labour could cling on for a majority.

Can only happen if loads of grumpy Reform voters suddenly decide to back Sunak as lesser of two evils, rather than sticking to their guns, or sitting on their hands, or breaking for Labour in significant numbers.

I came into this expecting the Tory vote to firm up significantly, as the fact that voters now had to actually pick a Government rather than complain/emote came into view, but there's no sign of swing back so far - and that includes among the vital elderly vote.

I would suggest the only mechanism is if something cuts through about Labour that they can be galvanised to want to STOP. Sufficiently galvanised they overlook Sunak.

Given Labour’s message discipline so far, that seems unlikely.

Dumbosaurus said:

Tweedledee said:

Dumbosaurus said:

Tweedledee said:

Big_Ian said:

Tweedledee said:

Leon said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Heathener said:

YouGov has dropped, which can be said for Labour’s share, but Cons on 18% is staggering.

📈📉NEW POLL
@YouGov


Labour lead at 20 points

🔴LAB: 38% (-3)
🔵CON: 18% (-1)
🟣REF: 17% (+1)
🟠LDEM: 15% (+4)
🟢GRN: 8% (+1)

Terrible news for Labour as the gap with the Tories is closed by 2 points.

At this rate the gap will be closed in 10 weeks

/sarcasm

ANY poll which shows your party losing 3 points - ie outside the MOE - induces anxiety, if not panic, even if you are 298 points ahead. Why? Because it might be the start of a trend - and indeed this poll is just one of several which show a trend of Labour sliding

Its about 1-2 points a week so it’s hardly fast but (using this poll as a base) if Labour lose another 6 points in the 3 weeks to July 4 then, from being entirely dominant, they are on 32

And that says “hung Parliament”

In 2010 and 2017 the tories looked impregnable until they didn't. In 2010 especially people were saying "just MOE" without really noticing that the MOEs were all in the one direction. And Sunak is an arse, but by God so were Brown and Corbyn.

I have a tenner on NOM

What odds?

Looks it up...

10.5

Have you missed my generous offer to take you up on one of those 50/1 for charidee, or was it a joke?

Yes sorry missed it

My tenner versus your five hundred says Davey does a parachute jump* this campaign? Both to be donated to Ukraine?

*Or push. Or ejection seat. As long as he takes off in an aircraft and doesn't land in it

Glider to Normandy?

Ghedebrav said:

viewcode said:

WhisperingOracle said:

I wonder if it might be that, whle many here , including me, weren't over-excited by the LD manifesto, they're quietly building a perception of themselves as both the more explicitly caring, and more fun party. The look on the bright side and make the best of it party, making Labour look more defensive.

Social care + friendly Ed Davey = Positive messaging, less emotionally cautious than Labour.

To make a semi-serious point for a moment. The Lib Dems are campaigning in images and they are all fun, happy ones. The Conservatives are campaigning in words and text (which can be fact checked and disputed) and it's images are sad and depressing. Perhaps the Libs have chanced upon an image-based approach that is more robust to FUD than other approaches.

Happy Davey days.

At Thorpe Park, no less 😂😂😂😂

Taz said:

Ghedebrav said:

viewcode said:

WhisperingOracle said:

I wonder if it might be that, whle many here , including me, weren't over-excited by the LD manifesto, they're quietly building a perception of themselves as both the more explicitly caring, and more fun party. The look on the bright side and make the best of it party, making Labour look more defensive.

Social care + friendly Ed Davey = Positive messaging, less emotionally cautious than Labour.

To make a semi-serious point for a moment. The Lib Dems are campaigning in images and they are all fun, happy ones. The Conservatives are campaigning in words and text (which can be fact checked and disputed) and it's images are sad and depressing. Perhaps the Libs have chanced upon an image-based approach that is more robust to FUD than other approaches.

Happy Davey days.

At Thorpe Park, no less 😂😂😂😂

The LibDems are definitely playing their joker on this one.

TheScreamingEagles said:

WhisperingOracle said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

People are still exceeding the daily photo allowance.

If this continues everybody's ability to post photos will be revoked.

It is your call.

So far, WilliamGlenn, Heathener, and KJH have exceeded their quota today.

I'm hearing in the tones of the teacher who told us that a small minority were spoiling it for the rest of us.

"Do you want us to just do Maths today, and not have a chance to enjoy the sunshine outside ? Because that's what'll happen."

There's an alternative.

I can add a script that automatically bans people if they exceed the daily quota.

Do it!

It’s not hard to remember - one photo a day. Its actually quite a good discipline and one I’ve stuck to throughout my PB career anyway

But seriously. You don’t need the grief as you recuperate from a nasty op - make it automatic. Good idea

And if a poster needs to offer visual proof of something (like my £10 given to the Ukrainian lady for @Sandpit) and you’ve used up your quota then simply link to an image hosting website like Imgur

mickydroy said:

I have a feeling, that the BBC exit poll could be a tad tricky this year

People say that every time. Never back
against Sir John Curtice, as @TheScreamingEagles said earlier.

Dumbosaurus said:

maaarsh said:

Message that Labour have already won and you can be a bit more relaxed in your voting intention seems to be getting through, definite softening.

Still win an unbelievable landslide - but probably with fewer votes than his old boss and friend Jezza.

Hope so. @Quincel 's 8/1 tip on that was the best of the election so far

If Starmer gets fewer votes than Jezza despite winning a majority the Corbynistas will never shut up about it.

Whereas if Davey gets fewer votes than Swinson (very possible) but more seats I’m not expecting Twitter pile-ons from the Swinsonians.

Lib Dem odds on the 'Most Seats Without Labour' market were 6.0 when the YouGov poll dropped. Now trading at around 3.6 - 3.85 - big change!

We must be due another MRP soon aren’t we? The last one out had data to from end of May up to 2nd June.

And a reminder: actual voting begins next week.

any early evidence on if the Tory manifesto has gone down positively and will help the Tories in the polls?

I also just remembered, tomorrow the Sunak Brand ITV interview airs - and it's said to be very bad for him by journey that have seen it!

PedestrianRock said:

Lib Dem odds on the 'Most Seats Without Labour' market were 6.0 when the YouGov poll dropped. Now trading at around 3.6 - 3.85 - big change!

I need to trust my instincts more - I'm on at 13s but for a pittance. Thanks to the guidance of this place I'm on a 4/5 event winning run, should probably up my stakes!

As an aside just topped up on Reform 8-10% at 17s and 10-12% at 10s.

Ghedebrav said:

viewcode said:

WhisperingOracle said:

I wonder if it might be that, whle many here , including me, weren't over-excited by the LD manifesto, they're quietly building a perception of themselves as both the more explicitly caring, and more fun party. The look on the bright side and make the best of it party, making Labour look more defensive.

Social care + friendly Ed Davey = Positive messaging, less emotionally cautious than Labour.

To make a semi-serious point for a moment. The Lib Dems are campaigning in images and they are all fun, happy ones. The Conservatives are campaigning in words and text (which can be fact checked and disputed) and it's images are sad and depressing. Perhaps the Libs have chanced upon an image-based approach that is more robust to FUD than other approaches.

Happy Davey days.

Ed Davey becomes the first person in history to ride a log flume while wearing a tie.

@SeaShantyIrish2 How would you see Green Party transfers going? mainly to FG and FF as they are more centrist than the Greens in Scotland or England & Wales?

Andy_JS said:

Heathener said:

Heathener said:

YouGov has dropped, which can be said for Labour’s share, but Cons on 18% is staggering.

📈📉NEW POLL
@YouGov


Labour lead at 20 points

🔴LAB: 38% (-3)
🔵CON: 18% (-1)
🟣REF: 17% (+1)
🟠LDEM: 15% (+4)
🟢GRN: 8% (+1)

If this continues the Cons could come 4th.

However, it’s more likely they will pick up a bit surely?

Maybe, but what explains the Lab drop to 38%?

Tactical Voting coming through. This really isn’t difficult.

Anabobazina said:

NOM 21 on BX. Almost worth another nibble at those odds.

My God! More abbreviations / acronyms! For God's sake, stop man!

WhisperingOracle said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

People are still exceeding the daily photo allowance.

If this continues everybody's ability to post photos will be revoked.

It is your call.

So far, WilliamGlenn, Heathener, and KJH have exceeded their quota today.

I'm hearing in the tones of the teacher who told us that a small minority were spoiling it for the rest of us.

"Do you want us to just do Maths today, and not have a chance to enjoy the sunshine outside ? Because that's what'll happen."

Your teacher was Rishi Sunak?

biggles said:

pigeon said:

biggles said:

Imagine if Labour stays on 38 and Tories start eating up Reform.

Unlikely with so much hate for Sunak, but @leon is right, if we got to 38/32 we’d all be debating if Labour could cling on for a majority.

Can only happen if loads of grumpy Reform voters suddenly decide to back Sunak as lesser of two evils, rather than sticking to their guns, or sitting on their hands, or breaking for Labour in significant numbers.

I came into this expecting the Tory vote to firm up significantly, as the fact that voters now had to actually pick a Government rather than complain/emote came into view, but there's no sign of swing back so far - and that includes among the vital elderly vote.

I would suggest the only mechanism is if something cuts through about Labour that they can be galvanised to want to STOP. Sufficiently galvanised they overlook Sunak.

Given Labour’s message discipline so far, that seems unlikely.

Yes. The Ming Vase Marathon reaches it's conclusion with the manifesto launch on Thursday, I think. If that goes according to plan then all Sir Keir has to do is get to polling day without being filmed either throwing a sack of live puppies into the Thames or anywhere with a conspicuous EU flag in the background, and he's Prime Minister. Though actually, given the popularity of the outgoing administration, he might well survive even those.

I am having visions now of Keir Starmer, wrapped in a huge EU flag, throwing a burning sack of live puppies into the Thames, whilst a chorus of trans women sing the Ode to Joy and the shadow cabinet march behind him, over a carpet made of Union Jacks and photos of the late Queen, whilst waving portraits of Marx and Stalin. That might - just - get us to a Hung Parliament.

JosiasJessop said:

Anabobazina said:

NOM 21 on BX. Almost worth another nibble at those odds.

My God! More abbreviations / acronyms! For God's sake, stop man!

Translation - FGSSM!

FrancisUrquhart said:

Stocky said:

Andy_JS said:

Ghedebrav said:

viewcode said:

WhisperingOracle said:

I wonder if it might be that, whle many here , including me, weren't over-excited by the LD manifesto, they're quietly building a perception of themselves as both the more explicitly caring, and more fun party. The look on the bright side and make the best of it party, making Labour look more defensive.

Social care + friendly Ed Davey = Positive messaging, less emotionally cautious than Labour.

To make a semi-serious point for a moment. The Lib Dems are campaigning in images and they are all fun, happy ones. The Conservatives are campaigning in words and text (which can be fact checked and disputed) and it's images are sad and depressing. Perhaps the Libs have chanced upon an image-based approach that is more robust to FUD than other approaches.

Happy Davey days.

Ed Davey becomes the first person in history to ride a log flume while wearing a tie.

While doing a Mr Bean impression.

Remember how Hague wearing a cap on the log flume was front page news.

And remember how popular that made him!

pigeon said:

biggles said:

pigeon said:

biggles said:

Imagine if Labour stays on 38 and Tories start eating up Reform.

Unlikely with so much hate for Sunak, but @leon is right, if we got to 38/32 we’d all be debating if Labour could cling on for a majority.

Can only happen if loads of grumpy Reform voters suddenly decide to back Sunak as lesser of two evils, rather than sticking to their guns, or sitting on their hands, or breaking for Labour in significant numbers.

I came into this expecting the Tory vote to firm up significantly, as the fact that voters now had to actually pick a Government rather than complain/emote came into view, but there's no sign of swing back so far - and that includes among the vital elderly vote.

I would suggest the only mechanism is if something cuts through about Labour that they can be galvanised to want to STOP. Sufficiently galvanised they overlook Sunak.

Given Labour’s message discipline so far, that seems unlikely.

Yes. The Ming Vase Marathon reaches it's conclusion with the manifesto launch on Thursday, I think. If that goes according to plan then all Sir Keir has to do is get to polling day without being filmed either throwing a sack of live puppies into the Thames or anywhere with a conspicuous EU flag in the background, and he's Prime Minister. Though actually, given the popularity of the outgoing administration, he might well survive even those.

I am having visions now of Keir Starmer, wrapped in a huge EU flag, throwing a burning sack of live puppies into the Thames, whilst a chorus of trans women sing the Ode to Joy and the shadow cabinet march behind him, over a carpet made of Union Jacks and photos of the late Queen, whilst waving portraits of Marx and Stalin. That might - just - get us to a Hung Parliament.

Labour staff, having read this post, are hurriedly cancelling the planned launch.

biggles said:

Anabobazina said:

NOM 21 on BX. Almost worth another nibble at those odds.

Why is a Reform majority 220, and a LibDem majority 1000? Neither is likely, but LibDem pedigree surely makes them more likely? I suppose it is an exchange and just reflects those betting.

Lib Dem most seats is also 1000 which is a better bet than Lib Dem Majority. I actually think there's a tiny chance of that coming off if the Anti-Tory vote somehow very efficiently coalesces. Probably a 300/1 shot rather than 1000, haha.

Thinking of why the left wing is more likely to do tactical voting than the right seem willing to. Is it because the left are more willing to believe the opinion polls are correct and the right are more "That's what the polls are saying but everyone I know is Tory so the polls are rubbish"?

Andy_JS said:

This must be the LDs best showing in any opinion poll for a very long time.

well, they did get 17% in the local elections on 2nd May.

DM_Andy said:

@SeaShantyIrish2 How would you see Green Party transfers going? mainly to FG and FF as they are more centrist than the Greens in Scotland or England & Wales?

Reckon that IF the Green gets the wack, his transfers would tend to go more to left than to FF or FG.
Dublin Greens are not exactly enamored with their national coalition partners.

Perhaps worth noting that, unlike in Cultchie-land beyond the Pale, Greens in the capital did NOT get clobbered in local elections for Dublin City Council, slipped some but held their own. Of course only part of Dublin Euro constituency, but just sayin.

ADDENDUM - should say that while I have nodding acquaintance with Irish politics, have NOT been following it closely recently, indeed barely at all.

viewcode said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Surely Ed Davey has to finish the campaign with this,

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cs9M1m-dpgM

Naah. This

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HEacFrHfcIU

This and he gets my vote:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ratqB20diYE

DoubleDutch said:

Is everything @Leon posts on here always such bs?

He's either a wind-up merchant or stark raving bonkers. Which is it?

He’s been on the Plato trajectory for quite a while.

But with more holiday snaps.