Do you want to help out a bookie? – politicalbetting.com
Do you want to help out a bookie? – politicalbetting.com
Ladbrokes have a market up on what publicity shy antics Sir Ed Davey will get up to before election day. Using the golden rule that you should never get involved in a market where the bookie doesn’t offer both sides of the bet applies here.
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None of those seem likely to me.
I think they may be raising their sights tbh.
I will only comment that, from the reports I've read, there's no big surprise or 'gamechanger' contained in it, which will please Starmer.
Punting on the River Cam?
Seal watching in North norfolk?
Ah, got it...
Surfing on Sennen Beach
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/boxing/2024/06/11/watch-video-tyson-fury-escorted-out-bar-before-ccollapsing/
https://x.com/UKLabour/status/1800507097064558651
It's all feeling quite snoozy.
https://x.com/willydunn/status/1800503202590441800
"In the Conservative manifesto costings, you save £100k sacking an NHS manager (of course you account for their salary!) but you only spend £1k hiring a police officer (no need to account for their salary!)"
Full house — almost: Members of the far-right AfD and the far-left BSW parties are absent.
I let you draw your own conclusions…
https://x.com/vonderburchard/status/1800508500155785653
I am hearing some pretty good news in several key targets, to the point that the next layer of targets is now getting some attention. So I think the Lib Dems are having a better campaign across the board. Labour are too timid and the Tory clown car could hardly be worse.
I´d be a bit surprised if we don´t see a bet of progress in the general polls soon too. This is clearly a drastically happier campaign than 2019.
The Tories have published a manifesto where the tax burden…keeps rising.
Details, and new calculations from the @SpecDataHub, on @SpecCoffeeHouse
👇
https://x.com/KateAndrs/status/1800515217513959610
Chevy Camaro goes up in flames during sideshow at Embarcadero & Washington at Pier 1 in San Francisco. Those in crowd stomp on trunk & kick car as others do donuts around the fire
https://x.com/henrykleeKTVU/status/1799970927918346350
This is central San Francisco, Four Seasons is like 3 blocks away.
Sunak claims "This year everyone in work is getting a £900 tax cut on average".
Simply incorrect. Anyone earning under £26k will be worse off when other tax changes are taken into account.
https://x.com/AdamJSchwarz/status/1800493112550436984
Even Tory spreadsheets are calling Sunak a liar
This has been the game for a while now. Hence all the rubbish about the Tories talking right, but acting left, or making out that Sunak is a centrist. The story will be that the Tories lost by not being sufficiently right-wing.
I think the actual explanation is that they've simply been incompetent, to a disastrous degree. But that doesn't mean the story from the Spectator won't catch on.
I got a call the other day letting me know that the Reform candidate was putting up signs near me and that I might want to pop down and photograph them as evidence. By the time I got there 10 minutes later, he was already hurriedly taking them down again
Whilst shy Tories aren’t likely such a thing in polling I bet they are a real thing in terms of public displays of support.
It’s true that the only thing worse than being talked about, is not being talked about - but if everyone’s calling you an idiot and you’re running the risk of getting yourself injured in the process…
https://order-order.com/2024/06/11/summarised-the-onward-manifesto/
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cmjj1n030djo
Come on BBC, "objects", he wasn't throwing teddy bears or flowers, you mean construction waste of rocks / bricks. Luckily it looks like he was so weak as piss he can't throw with much force.
I am not fan of Farage, but again this twisting and downplaying of events is a) unacceptable and b) counterproductive. I said the same thing when people attacked Corbyn. You beat people you disagree with, with better arguments and at the ballot box.
Nobody putting up a Lib Dem sign in somewhere genteel such as Henley runs much of a risk of social backlash or actual abuse so why not.
It would be like Scotland fans dancing in Trafalgar Square in the lead up to them playing a surprise semi final when England were knocked out in the group rounds. People would laugh a bit and say “fair enough, we were shit, enjoy your day in the sun.”
It certainly made me appreciate all the more those that become candidates and the like, essentially putting themselves in the line of fire of nutters and extremists.
I really think that this year we are going to see a huge amount more tactical voting than some people expect, because it's the first election where it's been properly known online as a phenomena, with the likes of Carol Vorderman sharing the tactical voting links a lot and encouraging their followers to do so, AND there isn't a clear difference between Labour and the Lib Dems that dissuades tactical voting (like Corbyn and Brexit were).
Ed Davey has come up with a great campaigning style. Photo stunts that make the news, but a serious point too, hence the common theme of water.
In the past the Right have been less self-indulgent than that, but the fact that Labour was so weak that the Right could survive UKIP and other Brexit-created splits seems to have taken off all restraint.
If in Clwyd North then no chance
- getting 14/1 on Leave after Farage conceded on EU Referendum night
- getting 4/1 on Joe Biden in 2020 when the early results looked decent for Trump
etc etcI do wonder if the July 4th Exit poll is going to present some great opportunities because it will be so hard to know exactly how to apply the %s to seats. The Exit Poll that millions view on TV might be wide of the mark on seat totals, particularly outside of Labour / Conservatives.
Canny punters could e.g. see the Lib Dems on 12%, see the odds lengthen accordingly as it might be seen as slightly disappointing - but then back them for big seat gains because they believe they'll be efficient enough to win good seats with that number.
The opposite could be said of Reform. Maybe Reform get 17%, and there's a rush of money on them winning multiple seats - but in the end they win 0-1, and you can lay all the money that's gone on them getting 5+ seats.
Would love to see a write up that tries to predict potential opportunities like this.
This is a very odd and contradictory election. The changes are potentially epochal, but everyone seems fed up and bored. There's none of the anger of 1979 or the optimism of 1997, but it's just as important as those, if not more so.
Streaking basically stopped when TV decided never to show them or talk about it.
Yeah, you got some media attention. For being a berk.
It's a shame the Yorkshire Party want to slice England into bits, otherwise I might well be voting that way. As it is, I'm not sure. Not voting Reform, or Lib Dem, or Labour. Or Conservative. Or Green.
I might not have an option I want to back on the ballot paper.
*checks*
Ah, there is another option! Oh. It's the SDP.
Now, the question is: how do I deface my voting slip? Or do I actually vote Lib Dem? Or give the Conservatives a pity vote? The agony of choice.
....and it works and it's working.
It'll become part of the accepted political lore, and the Spads of the 2040s will mutter to their ministers: "make sure you stay right to the end of the ceremony or you'll end up like Rishi Sunak!", "don't lie about the civil service okaying your tax calcs, remember the Tories in 2024", and "if you cut NICs, the pensioners will revolt - that's what finally killed the old Conservative party".
It's why the right wing would be nuts to go through with their threat to issue an alternative manifesto - their best bet is to shut up and wait for the election to be over. Any intervention they make now will be tainted by the campaign's failure.
Never change malcolm.
It's obviously very difficult to get this exactly but I'm sure some people will have interesting theories / ideas.
And I can't stand the man.
It's an odd tax when you get something back. That's the issue - as is the current government calling it National INSURANCE and saying stuff like
" ... The qualifying years on your National Insurance record affect how much State Pension you get. Check your State Pension forecast to see what you might get when you reach State Pension age.
Your spouse or civil partner’s pension
Your new State Pension is usually based on your own National Insurance record. In some cases you might inherit State Pension or increase it through a spouse or civil partner."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-49508231
"Jo Brand's controversial joke about throwing battery acid "went beyond what was appropriate" for a Radio 4 comedy show, the BBC has ruled.
The corporation has partially upheld complaints about the quip made by the comedian on Radio 4's Heresy in June.
Referring to political figures who had been hit by milkshakes, she said: "I'm thinking, why bother with a milkshake when you could get some battery acid?"
But the BBC dismissed complaints that her remark amounted to incitement.
Following the broadcast, Brexit Party leader Nigel Farage, who had a milkshake thrown at him by protesters several weeks earlier, accused Brand of "inciting violence"."
It could shore up the vote a bit by winning back some from Reform, even if it also loses votes in the centre. It enables them to claim the credit for any seat held. It gives them something to campaign for before polling day, and creates a litmus test for the leadership election.
Richest 20% of families will gain most from tax cut plans in Tory manifesto, says Resolution Foundation
https://x.com/AndrewSparrow/status/1800525849797804107
Criminal damage/trespass/blocking transportation etc are equivalent to attacking people.
The latter could result in someone's death.
The battle for the soul of the Tory party won't involve Blairite-tribute acts like Sunak....
The Tories have increased the welfare bill significantly. We now spend a higher percentage of GDP on welfare than we did when Gordon Brown left office. Despite the fact that unemployment is significantly lower.