A Portillo moment for a new generation? – politicalbetting.com

williamglenn said:

The AfD got 43% in Saxony with the SPD below 5%

https://x.com/tilojung/status/1799858314052084142

Just to check in on your usual far-right boosting... are you a fan of the AfD?

There doesn't seem to be much pre-publicity on the Redfield and Wilton poll.

Perhaps nothing surprising ? If so, Farage migh have had his chips.

Leon said:

Sean_F said:

RN look to be winning 31-32% in France. LREM on 15%, PS on 14%, Les Republicans on 8%, Other Right and Greens just above the 5% threshold.

Le Pen cruising to victory at the next POTFR elex, as things stand

If you add Zemmours 5.5% to Lepen thats 38% of France voting radical right. If thats repeated at a presidential election Lepen is La Presidente.

eek said:

Alanbrooke said:

Foxy said:

Sean_F said:

I must say, I was pleasantly surprised by Labour’s promise of 20,000 more prison places.

I think the criminal justice system will be priority for Starmer. He has an understanding and interest in it way beyond the average politician.

The 80 extra rape courts also is a step forward. Justice delayed is justice denied.

except he'll cram legislation through the statute books and the courts will have more they cant cope with.

Utter bollox - but not surprising given that you don’t even live in the uk

LOL, when did Warwickshire leave the UK ?

Ghedebrav said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cjllk8x353yo

Off topic. Interesting stuff on old Lowry interviews uncovered.

I’ve reappraised him recently; I’d mentally pigeonholed him as a bit tiresome and amateurish but actually there’s a lot to his work - and I feel the key to it was looking at it from the viewpoint of his having probably quite deep and chronic depression.

Beyond the factory/crowd scenes he is best known for, there is a lot of pretty weird and visionary and even near-abstract (his seascapes). Since experiencing a sustained depressive bout myself I found I could relate to his work so much more.

His studies of girls in chaste but preposterously tight/throttling dress take on a peculiar dimension when considering the absence of romance in his life.

Not all chaste actually https://www.channel4.com/news/lowry-sketches-reveal-a-new-side-to-artist

Alanbrooke said:

Leon said:

Sean_F said:

RN look to be winning 31-32% in France. LREM on 15%, PS on 14%, Les Republicans on 8%, Other Right and Greens just above the 5% threshold.

Le Pen cruising to victory at the next POTFR elex, as things stand

If you add Zemmours 5.5% to Lepen thats 38% of France voting radical right. If thats repeated at a presidential election Lepen is La Presidente.

This doesn't surprise me.

I've felt a much more tangibly tense atmosphere between the ethnic groups whenever I've been France over the last decade, much worse than in the UK. The country may be ahead of us in many other areas, but Britain's more tolerant approach has served it much better in ethnic and cultural relations. Farage, or a solely Faragist Tory Party in the future, isn't going to reach those kind of figures any time soon.

EPG said:

williamglenn said:

The AfD got 43% in Saxony with the SPD below 5%

https://x.com/tilojung/status/1799858314052084142

Just to check in on your usual far-right boosting... are you a fan of the AfD?

Reporting something doesn't mean someone supports it.

Tonight's accommodation. Cheap, nice set menu. Just under 300 km cycled so far. Knackered.

williamglenn said:

The AfD got 43% in Saxony with the SPD below 5%

https://x.com/tilojung/status/1799858314052084142

The far right is going to have its day in the sun, though lack of internal coordination between the parties makes its administrative impact rather limited.

The other thing that stops them uniting into a powerful bloc is that different versions of them believe different things.

Put simply, there are truly nasty neo-nazis in suits, like the AfD and Sweden democrats, the successors to Hitler and Mussolini, and there are dozens of essentially Falangist parties, the successors to Franco. The current iteration of the RN in France, the PiS in Poland and Meloni in Italy are Falangists. At worst. Arguably just 19th century style authoritarians.

The AfD are the scariest. Worse than Trump, though less powerful.

The other divide is pro-Putinists vs the rest. Another where PiS and Meloni are on one side.

History tends to repeat itself and what happens on a small scale in the UK first (reformation and religious conflict, anti-royalist revolution, the rise of socialism) then manifests itself in a vastly more bloody way in Central Europe next. We did Brexit back in 2016, so they are due.

Alanbrooke said:

Leon said:

Sean_F said:

RN look to be winning 31-32% in France. LREM on 15%, PS on 14%, Les Republicans on 8%, Other Right and Greens just above the 5% threshold.

Le Pen cruising to victory at the next POTFR elex, as things stand

If you add Zemmours 5.5% to Lepen thats 38% of France voting radical right. If thats repeated at a presidential election Lepen is La Presidente.

Depends where Les Republicains voters go, most of them voted for Macron in the run off last time but if they switched to Le Pen next time then yes she would likely narrowly be elected President of France

WhisperingOracle said:

There doesn't seem to be much pre-publicity on the Redfield and Wilton poll.

Perhaps nothing surprising ? If so, Farage migh have had his chips.

When's it being released?

Andy_JS said:

EPG said:

williamglenn said:

The AfD got 43% in Saxony with the SPD below 5%

https://x.com/tilojung/status/1799858314052084142

Just to check in on your usual far-right boosting... are you a fan of the AfD?

Reporting something doesn't mean someone supports it.

For most people, but based on an extremely well-attested record on this site, I make an exception in this case.

Heathener said:

eek said:

Alanbrooke said:

Foxy said:

Sean_F said:

I must say, I was pleasantly surprised by Labour’s promise of 20,000 more prison places.

I think the criminal justice system will be priority for Starmer. He has an understanding and interest in it way beyond the average politician.

The 80 extra rape courts also is a step forward. Justice delayed is justice denied.

except he'll cram legislation through the statute books and the courts will have more they cant cope with.

Utter bollox - but not surprising given that you don’t even live in the uk

Doesn’t Alan live here?

Now it all makes sense.

I have a lesbian relationship with a rich woman in Surrey.

SandyRentool said:

HYUFD said:

Sean_F said:

I must say, I was pleasantly surprised by Labour’s promise of 20,000 more prison places.

As long as also accompanied by better rehabilitation inside given the vast majority of prisoners will eventually be released back into society

A liberal lefty has hacked into HY's account.

No not much different to what Justice Secretary Alex Chalk has said

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Pagan2 said:

carnforth said:

Farooq said:

Pagan2 said:

rcs1000 said:

Pagan2 said:

Pagan2 said:

Farooq said:

Pagan2 said:

Farooq said:

Pagan2 said:

Thinking 100k is an average salary is no different to the remainer lie that we lost 4% gdp when even where we were in the eu the last time our gdp increased by 4% was in 2000

Is this a riddle?

No its simple statement...our gdp didnt grow by 4% a year while we were in the eu since 2000.....the remainer lie is we lost 4% gdp somehow by leaving even though our gdp has continued rising. If it didnt rise by 4% while we were in the eu claiming it would have done is people like you just talking bollocks or as I would put it being a fucking lying piece of shit

I think you missed your last dose of thorazine

Oh wow ad hominem because you know I am right and you can't argue from facts.....yeah talk to the hand

When was the last year when we were in the eu when our gdp increased by 4% then go on tell me?

Come on dude: the everyone's GDP increased massively in 2021 as Covid receded and economies came back to life.

See - https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/ranking/gdp-growth-rate

I'm more positive on Brexit that I've ever been, but that's not a good argument.

I excluded the covid years for the reason you said, for example in 2020 are gdp was -10.4% in 2021 it was +8.7%. The covid effect and I suspect most european countries would reflect the same. My point is though we rarely got an increase of 4% gdp while we were in the eu the last time being 2000. To say brexit cost us 4% gdp is a lie because since brexit our gdp would be negative ever since then. It is a remainer lie.....now if we had stayed in might our gdp be higher well thats a counter factual, maybe yes, maybe no but it irritates me this claimed 4% from remainers when there is no evidence for it

Look, I don't know who's making these claims or frankly why you've suddenly got a bee in your bonnet, but try this form of argument.

If you're going to get twenty-five quid, and someone says hey, I know, let's throw one of those pounds in the lake because if we do that we'll get a magic wish from the Lake People.
So the money comes and you pocket £24 and you throw the other pound coin into the water -- plop! -- and you wait for your magic Lake People wish.

And you wait.

And you wait.

And eventually you realise you aren't getting a magic wish. You tell the person that their stupid policy cost you 4%.
That would be a fair statement, even though at no point did any money actually leave your pocket.

Just to be clear, I've no idea where this 4% stuff is coming from, I'm just reflecting the number back at you because you used it. I don't have any kind of position on whether Brexit has cost this amount or not. I can tell you though (in case you need it spelling out, which I'm certain you do) that there are no magic-wish-giving Lake People.

It's the ONS's mean of other people's predictions:



Many of those predictions, when you look at the detail, have very dodgy central cases: for example, one of them assumes, as the central case, that we leave with no deal and then make a deal after a couple of years. Almost all assume immigration falls markedly or catastophically.

I used the 4% drop in gdp as it often features in remainer arguments about why brexit isn't working. I am merely pointing out its bollocks because we rarely achieved a 4% increase on gdp while in the eu

The 4% forecasted fall in GDP is measuring the long term effect on the economy relative to the no Brexit counterfactual, it doesn't refer to a drop in GDP from one year to the next.

Maybe so but most remainers seem to quote is as a yearly think....we are 100 billlion less in gdp than we should be.

I am not claiming there is no drop in gdp from leaving the eu, I am merely saying its not 4% a year as we never really got 4% a year while in the eu

WhisperingOracle said:

Alanbrooke said:

Leon said:

Sean_F said:

RN look to be winning 31-32% in France. LREM on 15%, PS on 14%, Les Republicans on 8%, Other Right and Greens just above the 5% threshold.

Le Pen cruising to victory at the next POTFR elex, as things stand

If you add Zemmours 5.5% to Lepen thats 38% of France voting radical right. If thats repeated at a presidential election Lepen is La Presidente.

This doesn't surprise me.

I've felt a much more tangibly tense atmosphere between the ethnic groups whenever I've been France over the last decade, much worse than in the UK. The country may be ahead of us in many other areas, but Britain's more tolerant approach has served it much better in ethnic and cultural relations. Farage, or a solely Faragist Tory Party in the future, isn't going to reach those kind of figures any time soon.

A lot of it is language. Anyone who comes to Britain learns English or WANTS to learn it. People that migrate to Denmark, Sweden, Finland, Norway have no desire to learn the local language, they can get away with English (this seriously riles locals, and understandably, hence the early rise of hard right parties in these countries). This is now playing out in bigger countries like France, Italy and Germany where incomers have no desire to learn French, Italian or German, they can get away with their own language plus English at a pinch

Add in the extra criminality, the insane rape stats, the gangs and drugs, and Europe is headed for a Hard Right V Migrants showdown within the next decade. It is baked in. Also gonna happen in Britain, we are just behind the curve, because Brexit

Yes yes yes migration brings benefits - and it really DOES being benefits if it is judicious - see the death of east Asia in birth rates - but it also brings massive issues which can no longer be ignored. The crunch is coming

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Pagan2 said:

Daveyboy1961 said:

Pagan2 said:

Daveyboy1961 said:

Malmesbury said:

algarkirk said:

Pagan2 said:

Farooq said:

Pagan2 said:

To be clear leave lied through its teeth, so did remain. Now we are in a general election and tory, labour , lib dem, greens, snp and reform are all lying to the electorate.


This is our democracy now who can lie best and gull people into believing them

Too many gull people. One hopes for a tern around.

We wont know till is plover

Which twite started this? Stop all this snipeing and don't be a coot.

It looks arguing is your pigeon

too much chaff

No need to crow about it

I can't swallow this anymore..

then you should exit swift

What about the booby prize, for the biggest turkey?

I would have to chicken out of that else I would be puffin my man boobs out

algarkirk said:

Leon said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

https://www.mattgoodwin.org/p/the-tory-elite-class-is-completely

Matt Goodwin on good form re. the centrist Tory commentary on the return of Farage.

He has this aside which is a point I make quite often here:

I mean, on a side note, is this what all that lobbying for Rishi Sunak among the Tory elite class was for? Is this it? Is this what ‘getting the adults back in the room’ and ousting Boris Johnson was all about? An average in the polls of 21% four weeks out from an election? A prime minister who looks utterly lost and out of his depth? A Tory party that’s never looked so out of touch with the country? Fiddling around the edges with smoking bans, reforming A-levels, and high-speed rail? I await the William Hague and Matthew Parris columns warning us once again that Farage is the amateur and only they are the experts who truly understand the modern world.

He’s not wrong. The so-called “adults” are like six year old kids trying to drive a car. Embarrassing; David Lord Cameron FFS

If Goodwin were as good on 'How to run the country' as he is on 'How Not to run the country' then I think he would be taken more seriously.

Putting into effect what people say they want is quite hard. Has Goodwin tried pleasing all the people who want low tax and great public services, who want no foreigners except X my friend because that's different, who want freedom for themselves and constraints for others etc...

He’s a pundit, not a politician. He pundits

Pagan2 said:

rcs1000 said:

Pagan2 said:

Pagan2 said:

Farooq said:

Pagan2 said:

Farooq said:

Pagan2 said:

Thinking 100k is an average salary is no different to the remainer lie that we lost 4% gdp when even where we were in the eu the last time our gdp increased by 4% was in 2000

Is this a riddle?

No its simple statement...our gdp didnt grow by 4% a year while we were in the eu since 2000.....the remainer lie is we lost 4% gdp somehow by leaving even though our gdp has continued rising. If it didnt rise by 4% while we were in the eu claiming it would have done is people like you just talking bollocks or as I would put it being a fucking lying piece of shit

I think you missed your last dose of thorazine

Oh wow ad hominem because you know I am right and you can't argue from facts.....yeah talk to the hand

When was the last year when we were in the eu when our gdp increased by 4% then go on tell me?

Come on dude: the everyone's GDP increased massively in 2021 as Covid receded and economies came back to life.

See - https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/ranking/gdp-growth-rate

I'm more positive on Brexit that I've ever been, but that's not a good argument.

I excluded the covid years for the reason you said, for example in 2020 are gdp was -10.4% in 2021 it was +8.7%. The covid effect and I suspect most european countries would reflect the same. My point is though we rarely got an increase of 4% gdp while we were in the eu the last time being 2000. To say brexit cost us 4% gdp is a lie because since brexit our gdp would be negative ever since then. It is a remainer lie.....now if we had stayed in might our gdp be higher well thats a counter factual, maybe yes, maybe no but it irritates me this claimed 4% from remainers when there is no evidence for it

Ummm.

I don't think that's necessarily true.

Let's imagine that while in the EU, we grew at 3% per year, while the rest of the EU grew at 2% a year. We'd been outperforming them by 1% a year. (And, by the way, that delta is about right, albeit the numbers are more like 2.6% and 1.6%.)

Then let's imagine that post Brexit, we grew at 2% a year. Well, if during that period, the rest of the EU grew at 0% per year, we could argue that Brexit had been a benefit, in that we were now growing even faster than our continental peers.

By contrast, if both we and the EU grew at 1% per year, you could argue that it had been a relative failure, because we were no longer able to maintain the same outperformance we had while in the EU.

That said, both of these examples are incomplete, because we need to look at wages relative to prices, we need to look at sustainability, and the like.

Plus, of course, in the short to medium term, most of things that affect GDP have nothing - positive or negative - to do with the EU. Covid, Ukraine, energy prices, and the like will all have much greater impact that any small changes to imports and exports to the EU.

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Alanbrooke said:

eek said:

Alanbrooke said:

Foxy said:

Sean_F said:

I must say, I was pleasantly surprised by Labour’s promise of 20,000 more prison places.

I think the criminal justice system will be priority for Starmer. He has an understanding and interest in it way beyond the average politician.

The 80 extra rape courts also is a step forward. Justice delayed is justice denied.

except he'll cram legislation through the statute books and the courts will have more they cant cope with.

Utter bollox - but not surprising given that you don’t even live in the uk

LOL, when did Warwickshire leave the UK ?

Question: Is Warwickshire pronounced "Woke-shire"? At least by residents with a speech impediment!

Na worrick - sher

But we have a GAA team if that helps

https://warwickshire.gaa.ie/

TimS said:

williamglenn said:

The AfD got 43% in Saxony with the SPD below 5%

https://x.com/tilojung/status/1799858314052084142

The far right is going to have its day in the sun, though lack of internal coordination between the parties makes its administrative impact rather limited.

The other thing that stops them uniting into a powerful bloc is that different versions of them believe different things.

Put simply, there are truly nasty neo-nazis in suits, like the AfD and Sweden democrats, the successors to Hitler and Mussolini, and there are dozens of essentially Falangist parties, the successors to Franco. The current iteration of the RN in France, the PiS in Poland and Meloni in Italy are Falangists. At worst. Arguably just 19th century style authoritarians.

The AfD are the scariest. Worse than Trump, though less powerful.

The other divide is pro-Putinists vs the rest. Another where PiS and Meloni are on one side.

History tends to repeat itself and what happens on a small scale in the UK first (reformation and religious conflict, anti-royalist revolution, the rise of socialism) then manifests itself in a vastly more bloody way in Central Europe next. We did Brexit back in 2016, so they are due.

Is it not a category error to call any democratic politician a fascist/falangist/nazi given that the one thing they had in common was opposition to multi-party democracy?

rcs1000 said:

Pagan2 said:

rcs1000 said:

Pagan2 said:

Pagan2 said:

Farooq said:

Pagan2 said:

Farooq said:

Pagan2 said:

Thinking 100k is an average salary is no different to the remainer lie that we lost 4% gdp when even where we were in the eu the last time our gdp increased by 4% was in 2000

Is this a riddle?

No its simple statement...our gdp didnt grow by 4% a year while we were in the eu since 2000.....the remainer lie is we lost 4% gdp somehow by leaving even though our gdp has continued rising. If it didnt rise by 4% while we were in the eu claiming it would have done is people like you just talking bollocks or as I would put it being a fucking lying piece of shit

I think you missed your last dose of thorazine

Oh wow ad hominem because you know I am right and you can't argue from facts.....yeah talk to the hand

When was the last year when we were in the eu when our gdp increased by 4% then go on tell me?

Come on dude: the everyone's GDP increased massively in 2021 as Covid receded and economies came back to life.

See - https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/ranking/gdp-growth-rate

I'm more positive on Brexit that I've ever been, but that's not a good argument.

I excluded the covid years for the reason you said, for example in 2020 are gdp was -10.4% in 2021 it was +8.7%. The covid effect and I suspect most european countries would reflect the same. My point is though we rarely got an increase of 4% gdp while we were in the eu the last time being 2000. To say brexit cost us 4% gdp is a lie because since brexit our gdp would be negative ever since then. It is a remainer lie.....now if we had stayed in might our gdp be higher well thats a counter factual, maybe yes, maybe no but it irritates me this claimed 4% from remainers when there is no evidence for it

Ummm.

I don't think that's necessarily true.

Let's imagine that while in the EU, we grew at 3% per year, while the rest of the EU grew at 2% a year. We'd been outperforming them by 1% a year. (And, by the way, that delta is about right, albeit the numbers are more like 2.6% and 1.6%.)

Then let's imagine that post Brexit, we grew at 2% a year. Well, if during that period, the rest of the EU grew at 0% per year, we could argue that Brexit had been a benefit, in that we were now growing even faster than our continental peers.

By contrast, if both we and the EU grew at 1% per year, you could argue that it had been a relative failure, because we were no longer able to maintain the same outperformance we had while in the EU.

That said, both of these examples are incomplete, because we need to look at wages relative to prices, we need to look at sustainability, and the like.

Plus, of course, in the short to medium term, most of things that affect GDP have nothing - positive or negative - to do with the EU. Covid, Ukraine, energy prices, and the like will all have much greater impact that any small changes to imports and exports to the EU.

But we are not underperforming when we were in the eu by 4% which is what remainers claim that we lost 4% gdp by leaving

I just got an email from David Cameron.

Hmm.

Leon said:

Sean_F said:

RN look to be winning 31-32% in France. LREM on 15%, PS on 14%, Les Republicans on 8%, Other Right and Greens just above the 5% threshold.

Le Pen cruising to victory at the next POTFR elex, as things stand

Fancy a bet on that?

Casino_Royale said:

I just got an email from David Cameron.

Hmm.

Oh you tease. Come on, spill the beans.

SandyRentool said:

StillWaters said:

carnforth said:

Farooq said:

algarkirk said:

pigeon said:

On the general topic of things being reported in the Mail, here's something else of interest:

Jeremy Hunt has vowed to do more to help those on six-figure salaries if the Tories win the general election - and he clings on to his own seat.

The Chancellor suggested, if he remains in charge of the Treasury beyond 4 July, he would be focused on removing 'cliff edges' for high earners in the tax system.

Mr Hunt pointed to how the Government's offer of free childcare for parents is not available if one of them is earning over £100,000.

....

'Around here the childcare reforms have been pretty popular,' the Chancellor said, as he spoke to the newspaper in Bramley, Surrey.

'But people also do raise the fact that one person earning over £100,000 means you don't get access to them and that creates a cliff edge.

'Because it was a big commitment we just couldn't afford to do more when I made the original announcement.

'But those are things I think we definitely want to make progress on, yes.'

He added: 'I've always said that if you want to be economically productive we have to get rid of the cliff edges in the tax system.

'The removal of the personal allowance, the fact that childcare support stops when one person in a household is earning over £100,000.

'If you speak to economists, they will say the most damaging things in the tax system are when you have things with a high marginal rate.

'So it is absolutely on our list as something we would like to do more on.'

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13510505/Jeremy-Hunt-vows-help-six-figure-earners-Tories-win-general-election-Chancellor-survives-Portillo-moment-4-July.html

Compare this to the incessant foot-dragging over the victimisation of Carer's Allowance claimants who, earning, shall we say, somewhat less than £100,000, have found themselves falling over a cliff edge for earning about 56p too much and being ruthlessly pursued by Government-appointed debt collectors.

A good illustration of where Conservative priorities *appear* to lie - but it'll be fascinating to see which, if either, of these issues is deemed worthy of mention in the forthcoming manifesto.

It's quite hard dealing with the whole nation. Where I live £100k pa is loads and loads. In much of London and the SE it isn't (SFAICS).

£100k is more than double the median London wage, which is about £44k.

£97400 before tax puts someone in the top 4% of those having liability for income tax:

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/percentile-points-from-1-to-99-for-total-
income-before-and-after-tax

£50000 gets you into the top 16%.

Worth remembering that the top 1.5% pay
more than 35% of total income tax

They could take a pay cut and thereby pay less tax.

Who would benefit from that?

Luckyguy1983 said:

https://www.mattgoodwin.org/p/the-tory-elite-class-is-completely

Matt Goodwin on good form re. the centrist Tory commentary on the return of Farage.

He has this aside which is a point I make quite often here:

I mean, on a side note, is this what all that lobbying for Rishi Sunak among the Tory elite class was for? Is this it? Is this what ‘getting the adults back in the room’ and ousting Boris Johnson was all about? An average in the polls of 21% four weeks out from an election? A prime minister who looks utterly lost and out of his depth? A Tory party that’s never looked so out of touch with the country? Fiddling around the edges with smoking bans, reforming A-levels, and high-speed rail? I await the William Hague and Matthew Parris columns warning us once again that Farage is the amateur and only they are the experts who truly understand the modern world.

Tories, please note. Clearly Goodwin is no longer your friend. Please desist posting his drivel.

Pagan2 said:

rcs1000 said:

Pagan2 said:

rcs1000 said:

Pagan2 said:

Pagan2 said:

Farooq said:

Pagan2 said:

Farooq said:

Pagan2 said:

Thinking 100k is an average salary is no different to the remainer lie that we lost 4% gdp when even where we were in the eu the last time our gdp increased by 4% was in 2000

Is this a riddle?

No its simple statement...our gdp didnt grow by 4% a year while we were in the eu since 2000.....the remainer lie is we lost 4% gdp somehow by leaving even though our gdp has continued rising. If it didnt rise by 4% while we were in the eu claiming it would have done is people like you just talking bollocks or as I would put it being a fucking lying piece of shit

I think you missed your last dose of thorazine

Oh wow ad hominem because you know I am right and you can't argue from facts.....yeah talk to the hand

When was the last year when we were in the eu when our gdp increased by 4% then go on tell me?

Come on dude: the everyone's GDP increased massively in 2021 as Covid receded and economies came back to life.

See - https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/ranking/gdp-growth-rate

I'm more positive on Brexit that I've ever been, but that's not a good argument.

I excluded the covid years for the reason you said, for example in 2020 are gdp was -10.4% in 2021 it was +8.7%. The covid effect and I suspect most european countries would reflect the same. My point is though we rarely got an increase of 4% gdp while we were in the eu the last time being 2000. To say brexit cost us 4% gdp is a lie because since brexit our gdp would be negative ever since then. It is a remainer lie.....now if we had stayed in might our gdp be higher well thats a counter factual, maybe yes, maybe no but it irritates me this claimed 4% from remainers when there is no evidence for it

Ummm.

I don't think that's necessarily true.

Let's imagine that while in the EU, we grew at 3% per year, while the rest of the EU grew at 2% a year. We'd been outperforming them by 1% a year. (And, by the way, that delta is about right, albeit the numbers are more like 2.6% and 1.6%.)

Then let's imagine that post Brexit, we grew at 2% a year. Well, if during that period, the rest of the EU grew at 0% per year, we could argue that Brexit had been a benefit, in that we were now growing even faster than our continental peers.

By contrast, if both we and the EU grew at 1% per year, you could argue that it had been a relative failure, because we were no longer able to maintain the same outperformance we had while in the EU.

That said, both of these examples are incomplete, because we need to look at wages relative to prices, we need to look at sustainability, and the like.

Plus, of course, in the short to medium term, most of things that affect GDP have nothing - positive or negative - to do with the EU. Covid, Ukraine, energy prices, and the like will all have much greater impact that any small changes to imports and exports to the EU.

But we are not underperforming when we were in the eu by 4% which is what remainers claim that we lost 4% gdp by leaving

Hang on: Remainers are claiming that we've lost 4% cumulative. That is, that our GDP is 4% lower than it would have been if we'd remained.

If we had GDP growth of 1% less a year for four years, that would cumulatively come to a 4% difference.

I'm not commenting on whether that has happened or not - because there are so many other factors that affect GDP levels - but that would be the mechanism by which it had come about; that our previous outperformance had disappeared, and - cumulatively - added up to 4%.

Casino_Royale said:

I just got an email from David Cameron.

Hmm.

He's needing you to stand in for him at a meeting with President Biden because he is delivering campaign leaflets in Bootle and the PM is watching snooker?

rcs1000 said:

Pagan2 said:

rcs1000 said:

Pagan2 said:

rcs1000 said:

Pagan2 said:

Pagan2 said:

Farooq said:

Pagan2 said:

Farooq said:

Pagan2 said:

Thinking 100k is an average salary is no different to the remainer lie that we lost 4% gdp when even where we were in the eu the last time our gdp increased by 4% was in 2000

Is this a riddle?

No its simple statement...our gdp didnt grow by 4% a year while we were in the eu since 2000.....the remainer lie is we lost 4% gdp somehow by leaving even though our gdp has continued rising. If it didnt rise by 4% while we were in the eu claiming it would have done is people like you just talking bollocks or as I would put it being a fucking lying piece of shit

I think you missed your last dose of thorazine

Oh wow ad hominem because you know I am right and you can't argue from facts.....yeah talk to the hand

When was the last year when we were in the eu when our gdp increased by 4% then go on tell me?

Come on dude: the everyone's GDP increased massively in 2021 as Covid receded and economies came back to life.

See - https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/ranking/gdp-growth-rate

I'm more positive on Brexit that I've ever been, but that's not a good argument.

I excluded the covid years for the reason you said, for example in 2020 are gdp was -10.4% in 2021 it was +8.7%. The covid effect and I suspect most european countries would reflect the same. My point is though we rarely got an increase of 4% gdp while we were in the eu the last time being 2000. To say brexit cost us 4% gdp is a lie because since brexit our gdp would be negative ever since then. It is a remainer lie.....now if we had stayed in might our gdp be higher well thats a counter factual, maybe yes, maybe no but it irritates me this claimed 4% from remainers when there is no evidence for it

Ummm.

I don't think that's necessarily true.

Let's imagine that while in the EU, we grew at 3% per year, while the rest of the EU grew at 2% a year. We'd been outperforming them by 1% a year. (And, by the way, that delta is about right, albeit the numbers are more like 2.6% and 1.6%.)

Then let's imagine that post Brexit, we grew at 2% a year. Well, if during that period, the rest of the EU grew at 0% per year, we could argue that Brexit had been a benefit, in that we were now growing even faster than our continental peers.

By contrast, if both we and the EU grew at 1% per year, you could argue that it had been a relative failure, because we were no longer able to maintain the same outperformance we had while in the EU.

That said, both of these examples are incomplete, because we need to look at wages relative to prices, we need to look at sustainability, and the like.

Plus, of course, in the short to medium term, most of things that affect GDP have nothing - positive or negative - to do with the EU. Covid, Ukraine, energy prices, and the like will all have much greater impact that any small changes to imports and exports to the EU.

But we are not underperforming when we were in the eu by 4% which is what remainers claim that we lost 4% gdp by leaving

Hang on: Remainers are claiming that we've lost 4% cumulative. That is, that our GDP is 4% lower than it would have been if we'd remained.

If we had GDP growth of 1% less a year for four years, that would cumulatively come to a 4% difference.

I'm not commenting on whether that has happened or not - because there are so many other factors that affect GDP levels - but that would be the mechanism by which it had come about; that our previous outperformance had disappeared, and - cumulatively - added up to 4%.

Correct. I cannot understand why Pagan is being so dense on this.

Benpointer said:

Pagan2 said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Pagan2 said:

carnforth said:

Farooq said:

Pagan2 said:

rcs1000 said:

Pagan2 said:

Pagan2 said:

Farooq said:

Pagan2 said:

Farooq said:

Pagan2 said:

Thinking 100k is an average salary is no different to the remainer lie that we lost 4% gdp when even where we were in the eu the last time our gdp increased by 4% was in 2000

Is this a riddle?

No its simple statement...our gdp didnt grow by 4% a year while we were in the eu since 2000.....the remainer lie is we lost 4% gdp somehow by leaving even though our gdp has continued rising. If it didnt rise by 4% while we were in the eu claiming it would have done is people like you just talking bollocks or as I would put it being a fucking lying piece of shit

I think you missed your last dose of thorazine

Oh wow ad hominem because you know I am right and you can't argue from facts.....yeah talk to the hand

When was the last year when we were in the eu when our gdp increased by 4% then go on tell me?

Come on dude: the everyone's GDP increased massively in 2021 as Covid receded and economies came back to life.

See - https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/ranking/gdp-growth-rate

I'm more positive on Brexit that I've ever been, but that's not a good argument.

I excluded the covid years for the reason you said, for example in 2020 are gdp was -10.4% in 2021 it was +8.7%. The covid effect and I suspect most european countries would reflect the same. My point is though we rarely got an increase of 4% gdp while we were in the eu the last time being 2000. To say brexit cost us 4% gdp is a lie because since brexit our gdp would be negative ever since then. It is a remainer lie.....now if we had stayed in might our gdp be higher well thats a counter factual, maybe yes, maybe no but it irritates me this claimed 4% from remainers when there is no evidence for it

Look, I don't know who's making these claims or frankly why you've suddenly got a bee in your bonnet, but try this form of argument.

If you're going to get twenty-five quid, and someone says hey, I know, let's throw one of those pounds in the lake because if we do that we'll get a magic wish from the Lake People.
So the money comes and you pocket £24 and you throw the other pound coin into the water -- plop! -- and you wait for your magic Lake People wish.

And you wait.

And you wait.

And eventually you realise you aren't getting a magic wish. You tell the person that their stupid policy cost you 4%.
That would be a fair statement, even though at no point did any money actually leave your pocket.

Just to be clear, I've no idea where this 4% stuff is coming from, I'm just reflecting the number back at you because you used it. I don't have any kind of position on whether Brexit has cost this amount or not. I can tell you though (in case you need it spelling out, which I'm certain you do) that there are no magic-wish-giving Lake People.

It's the ONS's mean of other people's predictions:



Many of those predictions, when you look at the detail, have very dodgy central cases: for example, one of them assumes, as the central case, that we leave with no deal and then make a deal after a couple of years. Almost all assume immigration falls markedly or catastophically.

I used the 4% drop in gdp as it often features in remainer arguments about why brexit isn't working. I am merely pointing out its bollocks because we rarely achieved a 4% increase on gdp while in the eu

The 4% forecasted fall in GDP is measuring the long term effect on the economy relative to the no Brexit counterfactual, it doesn't refer to a drop in GDP from one year to the next.

Maybe so but most remainers seem to quote is as a yearly think....we are 100 billlion less in gdp than we should be.

I am not claiming there is no drop in gdp from leaving the eu, I am merely saying its not 4% a year as we never really got 4% a year while in the eu

Nobody I know is saying we've lost 4% a year.

They're saying its 10%, that's why we have 5 million unemployed

boulay said:

HYUFD said:

Sean_F said:

I must say, I was pleasantly surprised by Labour’s promise of 20,000 more prison places.

As long as also accompanied by better rehabilitation inside given the vast majority of prisoners will eventually be released back into society

I’m hoping they can cut pointless prison sentences by harnessing AI to manage tags. Each person on a tag has their allowed times and movements put into a system and then AI is analysing and watching all of them and warns the wearer if in danger of breaking their curfew or route/allowed areas and then notifies the authorities if warning is ignored.

It would allow people to retain family lives and work, which avoids the risk of falling down the vicious circle of prison leading to more crime and reduces the amount of people needed to manage offenders.

There are a lot of criminals where prison will not achieve anything good for society but they need to be punished and so having their movement restricted for the period of sentence to home and work, and maybe for example an hour in a supermarket per week or a weekly visit to parents, would be more appropriate.

Warehousing criminals can play a part - some crimes are committed en-mass by repeat offenders. See burglary, when burglary gangs often rob multiple houses per day. Or mobile phone theft.

With burglary, there have been cases where imprisoning one or two people caused double digits percentage drops in a particular crime over a wide area.

rcs1000 said:

Pagan2 said:

rcs1000 said:

Pagan2 said:

rcs1000 said:

Pagan2 said:

Pagan2 said:

Farooq said:

Pagan2 said:

Farooq said:

Pagan2 said:

Thinking 100k is an average salary is no different to the remainer lie that we lost 4% gdp when even where we were in the eu the last time our gdp increased by 4% was in 2000

Is this a riddle?

No its simple statement...our gdp didnt grow by 4% a year while we were in the eu since 2000.....the remainer lie is we lost 4% gdp somehow by leaving even though our gdp has continued rising. If it didnt rise by 4% while we were in the eu claiming it would have done is people like you just talking bollocks or as I would put it being a fucking lying piece of shit

I think you missed your last dose of thorazine

Oh wow ad hominem because you know I am right and you can't argue from facts.....yeah talk to the hand

When was the last year when we were in the eu when our gdp increased by 4% then go on tell me?

Come on dude: the everyone's GDP increased massively in 2021 as Covid receded and economies came back to life.

See - https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/ranking/gdp-growth-rate

I'm more positive on Brexit that I've ever been, but that's not a good argument.

I excluded the covid years for the reason you said, for example in 2020 are gdp was -10.4% in 2021 it was +8.7%. The covid effect and I suspect most european countries would reflect the same. My point is though we rarely got an increase of 4% gdp while we were in the eu the last time being 2000. To say brexit cost us 4% gdp is a lie because since brexit our gdp would be negative ever since then. It is a remainer lie.....now if we had stayed in might our gdp be higher well thats a counter factual, maybe yes, maybe no but it irritates me this claimed 4% from remainers when there is no evidence for it

Ummm.

I don't think that's necessarily true.

Let's imagine that while in the EU, we grew at 3% per year, while the rest of the EU grew at 2% a year. We'd been outperforming them by 1% a year. (And, by the way, that delta is about right, albeit the numbers are more like 2.6% and 1.6%.)

Then let's imagine that post Brexit, we grew at 2% a year. Well, if during that period, the rest of the EU grew at 0% per year, we could argue that Brexit had been a benefit, in that we were now growing even faster than our continental peers.

By contrast, if both we and the EU grew at 1% per year, you could argue that it had been a relative failure, because we were no longer able to maintain the same outperformance we had while in the EU.

That said, both of these examples are incomplete, because we need to look at wages relative to prices, we need to look at sustainability, and the like.

Plus, of course, in the short to medium term, most of things that affect GDP have nothing - positive or negative - to do with the EU. Covid, Ukraine, energy prices, and the like will all have much greater impact that any small changes to imports and exports to the EU.

But we are not underperforming when we were in the eu by 4% which is what remainers claim that we lost 4% gdp by leaving

Hang on: Remainers are claiming that we've lost 4% cumulative. That is, that our GDP is 4% lower than it would have been if we'd remained.

If we had GDP growth of 1% less a year for four years, that would cumulatively come to a 4% difference.

I'm not commenting on whether that has happened or not - because there are so many other factors that affect GDP levels - but that would be the mechanism by which it had come about; that our previous outperformance had disappeared, and - cumulatively - added up to 4%.

But would we have higher gdp growth if we hadnt brexited. Now the answer is maybe yes, maybe no. I just dislike it being stated as a fact. Both sides lied, both sides continue to lie

Ye Gods. Someone has Goodwinned the thread AGAIN! One yearns for some sunny day where we aren’t subjected to the deranged ramblings of this prize helmet.

Benpointer said:

Pagan2 said:

Casino_Royale said:

I just got an email from David Cameron.

Hmm.

It is a scam probably inviting you to invest in greensil

Or more likely, it's a scam inviting you to invest in the Conservative Party.

Is there any truth in the rumour the Tories have run out of funds for social media ads? Why doesn't Mrs Sunak just dip her hands in her pockets?

How could the Tories up their game since D-Day?

Give an interview so bad their press officer has to step in...

https://x.com/christiancalgie/status/1799859124047593566

Pagan2 said:

rcs1000 said:

Pagan2 said:

rcs1000 said:

Pagan2 said:

rcs1000 said:

Pagan2 said:

Pagan2 said:

Farooq said:

Pagan2 said:

Farooq said:

Pagan2 said:

Thinking 100k is an average salary is no different to the remainer lie that we lost 4% gdp when even where we were in the eu the last time our gdp increased by 4% was in 2000

Is this a riddle?

No its simple statement...our gdp didnt grow by 4% a year while we were in the eu since 2000.....the remainer lie is we lost 4% gdp somehow by leaving even though our gdp has continued rising. If it didnt rise by 4% while we were in the eu claiming it would have done is people like you just talking bollocks or as I would put it being a fucking lying piece of shit

I think you missed your last dose of thorazine

Oh wow ad hominem because you know I am right and you can't argue from facts.....yeah talk to the hand

When was the last year when we were in the eu when our gdp increased by 4% then go on tell me?

Come on dude: the everyone's GDP increased massively in 2021 as Covid receded and economies came back to life.

See - https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/ranking/gdp-growth-rate

I'm more positive on Brexit that I've ever been, but that's not a good argument.

I excluded the covid years for the reason you said, for example in 2020 are gdp was -10.4% in 2021 it was +8.7%. The covid effect and I suspect most european countries would reflect the same. My point is though we rarely got an increase of 4% gdp while we were in the eu the last time being 2000. To say brexit cost us 4% gdp is a lie because since brexit our gdp would be negative ever since then. It is a remainer lie.....now if we had stayed in might our gdp be higher well thats a counter factual, maybe yes, maybe no but it irritates me this claimed 4% from remainers when there is no evidence for it

Ummm.

I don't think that's necessarily true.

Let's imagine that while in the EU, we grew at 3% per year, while the rest of the EU grew at 2% a year. We'd been outperforming them by 1% a year. (And, by the way, that delta is about right, albeit the numbers are more like 2.6% and 1.6%.)

Then let's imagine that post Brexit, we grew at 2% a year. Well, if during that period, the rest of the EU grew at 0% per year, we could argue that Brexit had been a benefit, in that we were now growing even faster than our continental peers.

By contrast, if both we and the EU grew at 1% per year, you could argue that it had been a relative failure, because we were no longer able to maintain the same outperformance we had while in the EU.

That said, both of these examples are incomplete, because we need to look at wages relative to prices, we need to look at sustainability, and the like.

Plus, of course, in the short to medium term, most of things that affect GDP have nothing - positive or negative - to do with the EU. Covid, Ukraine, energy prices, and the like will all have much greater impact that any small changes to imports and exports to the EU.

But we are not underperforming when we were in the eu by 4% which is what remainers claim that we lost 4% gdp by leaving

Hang on: Remainers are claiming that we've lost 4% cumulative. That is, that our GDP is 4% lower than it would have been if we'd remained.

If we had GDP growth of 1% less a year for four years, that would cumulatively come to a 4% difference.

I'm not commenting on whether that has happened or not - because there are so many other factors that affect GDP levels - but that would be the mechanism by which it had come about; that our previous outperformance had disappeared, and - cumulatively - added up to 4%.

But would we have higher gdp growth if we hadnt brexited. Now the answer is maybe yes, maybe no. I just dislike it being stated as a fact. Both sides lied, both sides continue to lie

It's not a fact it's a forecast compared to another forecast both of which would be wrong given subsequent events.

Benpointer said:

Pagan2 said:

Casino_Royale said:

I just got an email from David Cameron.

Hmm.

It is a scam probably inviting you to invest in greensil

Or more likely, it's a scam inviting you to invest in the Conservative Party.

Investing in the conservative party would be like investing in madoff ventures

Cookie said:

Pagan2 said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Pagan2 said:

carnforth said:

Farooq said:

Pagan2 said:

rcs1000 said:

Pagan2 said:

Pagan2 said:

Farooq said:

Pagan2 said:

Farooq said:

Pagan2 said:

Thinking 100k is an average salary is no different to the remainer lie that we lost 4% gdp when even where we were in the eu the last time our gdp increased by 4% was in 2000

Is this a riddle?

No its simple statement...our gdp didnt grow by 4% a year while we were in the eu since 2000.....the remainer lie is we lost 4% gdp somehow by leaving even though our gdp has continued rising. If it didnt rise by 4% while we were in the eu claiming it would have done is people like you just talking bollocks or as I would put it being a fucking lying piece of shit

I think you missed your last dose of thorazine

Oh wow ad hominem because you know I am right and you can't argue from facts.....yeah talk to the hand

When was the last year when we were in the eu when our gdp increased by 4% then go on tell me?

Come on dude: the everyone's GDP increased massively in 2021 as Covid receded and economies came back to life.

See - https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/ranking/gdp-growth-rate

I'm more positive on Brexit that I've ever been, but that's not a good argument.

I excluded the covid years for the reason you said, for example in 2020 are gdp was -10.4% in 2021 it was +8.7%. The covid effect and I suspect most european countries would reflect the same. My point is though we rarely got an increase of 4% gdp while we were in the eu the last time being 2000. To say brexit cost us 4% gdp is a lie because since brexit our gdp would be negative ever since then. It is a remainer lie.....now if we had stayed in might our gdp be higher well thats a counter factual, maybe yes, maybe no but it irritates me this claimed 4% from remainers when there is no evidence for it

Look, I don't know who's making these claims or frankly why you've suddenly got a bee in your bonnet, but try this form of argument.

If you're going to get twenty-five quid, and someone says hey, I know, let's throw one of those pounds in the lake because if we do that we'll get a magic wish from the Lake People.
So the money comes and you pocket £24 and you throw the other pound coin into the water -- plop! -- and you wait for your magic Lake People wish.

And you wait.

And you wait.

And eventually you realise you aren't getting a magic wish. You tell the person that their stupid policy cost you 4%.
That would be a fair statement, even though at no point did any money actually leave your pocket.

Just to be clear, I've no idea where this 4% stuff is coming from, I'm just reflecting the number back at you because you used it. I don't have any kind of position on whether Brexit has cost this amount or not. I can tell you though (in case you need it spelling out, which I'm certain you do) that there are no magic-wish-giving Lake People.

It's the ONS's mean of other people's predictions:



Many of those predictions, when you look at the detail, have very dodgy central cases: for example, one of them assumes, as the central case, that we leave with no deal and then make a deal after a couple of years. Almost all assume immigration falls markedly or catastophically.

I used the 4% drop in gdp as it often features in remainer arguments about why brexit isn't working. I am merely pointing out its bollocks because we rarely achieved a 4% increase on gdp while in the eu

The 4% forecasted fall in GDP is measuring the long term effect on the economy relative to the no Brexit counterfactual, it doesn't refer to a drop in GDP from one year to the next.

Maybe so but most remainers seem to quote is as a yearly think....we are 100 billlion less in gdp than we should be.

I am not claiming there is no drop in gdp from leaving the eu, I am merely saying its not 4% a year as we never really got 4% a year while in the eu

The 4% fall in GDP compared to the counterfactual is completely implausible, but can never be proven nor disproven.
But the fact that the French and German economies are getting hammered as much as, if not more than ours, gives us a clue that it is in fact bollocks.

Yes, precise percentage GDP counterfactuals are effing nonsense generally, they are even more absurd during a 5 year period which saw a global plague and a terrible war

Interesting data from the US. There's been a big drop in support for gay marriage among gen-z, while in every other age group, it's increased.

https://www.americansurveycenter.org/research/generation-z-and-the-transformation-of-american-adolescence-how-gen-zs-formative-experiences-shape-its-politics-priorities-and-future/

Sean_F said:

I must say, I was pleasantly surprised by Labour’s promise of 20,000 more prison places.

It's all focus-grouped and wargammed, but impressively so. They are running a tight campaign.

However, I don't trust SKS to deliver it, and very much doubt he even believes it.

williamglenn said:

TimS said:

williamglenn said:

The AfD got 43% in Saxony with the SPD below 5%

https://x.com/tilojung/status/1799858314052084142

The far right is going to have its day in the sun, though lack of internal coordination between the parties makes its administrative impact rather limited.

The other thing that stops them uniting into a powerful bloc is that different versions of them believe different things.

Put simply, there are truly nasty neo-nazis in suits, like the AfD and Sweden democrats, the successors to Hitler and Mussolini, and there are dozens of essentially Falangist parties, the successors to Franco. The current iteration of the RN in France, the PiS in Poland and Meloni in Italy are Falangists. At worst. Arguably just 19th century style authoritarians.

The AfD are the scariest. Worse than Trump, though less powerful.

The other divide is pro-Putinists vs the rest. Another where PiS and Meloni are on one side.

History tends to repeat itself and what happens on a small scale in the UK first (reformation and religious conflict, anti-royalist revolution, the rise of socialism) then manifests itself in a vastly more bloody way in Central Europe next. We did Brexit back in 2016, so they are due.

Is it not a category error to call any democratic politician a fascist/falangist/nazi given that the one thing they had in common was opposition to multi-party democracy?

Hitler came to power via a multiparty democratic system.

Heathener said:

Casino_Royale said:

I just got an email from David Cameron.

Hmm.

Oh you tease. Come on, spill the beans.

It was a video aimed at Conservatives Abroad for voting in the GE, which I presume can be linked to his role as foreign secretary.

darkage said:

HYUFD said:

SandyRentool said:

HYUFD said:

Sean_F said:

I must say, I was pleasantly surprised by Labour’s promise of 20,000 more prison places.

As long as also accompanied by better rehabilitation inside given the vast majority of prisoners will eventually be released back into society

A liberal lefty has hacked into HY's account.

No not much different to what Justice Secretary Alex Chalk has said

The 20,000 prison places are what the conservatives have planned but not been able to deliver due to problems with the planning system. Labour are saying that they will circumvent this by issuing 'development consent orders' but these still have to go through a year plus long process of examination so not a quick route. The government could just 'call in' the planning applications submitted by the Ministry of Justice and approve them. Apparently the hold ups are something to do with badgers and retained EU rules about protected species.

The 20,000 are not enough, there are 87,000 prisoners in 80,000 places at present. Really they need something like 100,000 more prison places to start to meet public demand for longer sentences. At least having labour in power will hopefully stop the government opportunistically passing laws for longer sentences in the hope that the consequences will be passed on to the next government.

If criminal justice were administered according to meet public demand then it would consist principally of tying convicts to poles, handing shotguns to victims or their families, and inviting them to enjoy some target practice.

But in all seriousness, mass scale incarceration does not make for a safer society. Ask an American.

Luckyguy1983 said:

Anabobazina said:

Ye Gods. Someone has Goodwinned the thread AGAIN! One yearns for some sunny day where we aren’t subjected to the deranged ramblings of this prize helmet.

You want to stop deranged ramblings on PB? What does that leave?

We have Godwin's Law, as is well known. Is it possible to formulate Goodwin's Law?

Foxy said:

williamglenn said:

TimS said:

williamglenn said:

The AfD got 43% in Saxony with the SPD below 5%

https://x.com/tilojung/status/1799858314052084142

The far right is going to have its day in the sun, though lack of internal coordination between the parties makes its administrative impact rather limited.

The other thing that stops them uniting into a powerful bloc is that different versions of them believe different things.

Put simply, there are truly nasty neo-nazis in suits, like the AfD and Sweden democrats, the successors to Hitler and Mussolini, and there are dozens of essentially Falangist parties, the successors to Franco. The current iteration of the RN in France, the PiS in Poland and Meloni in Italy are Falangists. At worst. Arguably just 19th century style authoritarians.

The AfD are the scariest. Worse than Trump, though less powerful.

The other divide is pro-Putinists vs the rest. Another where PiS and Meloni are on one side.

History tends to repeat itself and what happens on a small scale in the UK first (reformation and religious conflict, anti-royalist revolution, the rise of socialism) then manifests itself in a vastly more bloody way in Central Europe next. We did Brexit back in 2016, so they are due.

Is it not a category error to call any democratic politician a fascist/falangist/nazi given that the one thing they had in common was opposition to multi-party democracy?

Hitler came to power via a multiparty democratic system.

Genuine question - the Nazis were fairly contemptuous of democracy during their rise to power. But did they advocate ending democracy? I don't seem to recall that. I believe they advocated banning "communist parties".

Seems Farage has nicked Gordon Brown's idea about how BoE finance goes through the nation's books.

Alanbrooke said:

Foxy said:

williamglenn said:

TimS said:

williamglenn said:

The AfD got 43% in Saxony with the SPD below 5%

https://x.com/tilojung/status/1799858314052084142

The far right is going to have its day in the sun, though lack of internal coordination between the parties makes its administrative impact rather limited.

The other thing that stops them uniting into a powerful bloc is that different versions of them believe different things.

Put simply, there are truly nasty neo-nazis in suits, like the AfD and Sweden democrats, the successors to Hitler and Mussolini, and there are dozens of essentially Falangist parties, the successors to Franco. The current iteration of the RN in France, the PiS in Poland and Meloni in Italy are Falangists. At worst. Arguably just 19th century style authoritarians.

The AfD are the scariest. Worse than Trump, though less powerful.

The other divide is pro-Putinists vs the rest. Another where PiS and Meloni are on one side.

History tends to repeat itself and what happens on a small scale in the UK first (reformation and religious conflict, anti-royalist revolution, the rise of socialism) then manifests itself in a vastly more bloody way in Central Europe next. We did Brexit back in 2016, so they are due.

Is it not a category error to call any democratic politician a fascist/falangist/nazi given that the one thing they had in common was opposition to multi-party democracy?

Hitler came to power via a multiparty democratic system.

So did Tony Blair.

Yes, but Blair allowed further elections while Hitler did not.

I was just pointing out that participation in multiparty democracy doesn't prevent a party from being fascist/falangist/nazi.

Though I think those terms far too frequently used. RN isn't fascist or even falangist, just nativity and populist for example. Golden Dawn in Greece could be reasonably described as Facist.

Malmesbury said:

darkage said:

HYUFD said:

SandyRentool said:

HYUFD said:

Sean_F said:

I must say, I was pleasantly surprised by Labour’s promise of 20,000 more prison places.

As long as also accompanied by better rehabilitation inside given the vast majority of prisoners will eventually be released back into society

A liberal lefty has hacked into HY's account.

No not much different to what Justice Secretary Alex Chalk has said

The 20,000 prison places are what the conservatives have planned but not been able to deliver due to problems with the planning system. Labour are saying that they will circumvent this by issuing 'development consent orders' but these still have to go through a year plus long process of examination so not a quick route. The government could just 'call in' the planning applications submitted by the Ministry of Justice and approve them. Apparently the hold ups are something to do with badgers and retained EU rules about protected species.

The 20,000 are not enough, there are 87,000 prisoners in 80,000 places at present. Really they need something like 100,000 more prison places to start to meet public demand for longer sentences. At least having labour in power will hopefully stop the government opportunistically passing laws for longer sentences in the hope that the consequences will be passed on to the next government.

Idea - Train the prisoners in building trades. Then they can build prisons as part of their sentence reduction.

Badgers are thugs. If they were humans, they would be the shaven headed guy at the end of the bar who no one sits next to. With "Love" and "Hate" tattoos on their knuckles. Build the prisons round them.

We have some absurd rules around badgers, largely driven by misty-eyed sentiment.