You can see her lanyard. That’s a volunteer by the flags in Maidan Square. £10
Now you have to give me £10,010 if - WHEN - the Tories get zero seats
Awesome!
We can both be happy. Out of a silly PB bet the Ukrainian charity for newly disabled soldiers has gained £10
Unless, of course, I win the bet…
Leon you have now admitted after you visited the memorial at least 200, 000 ukrainian men have died in this war. Thats a minimum. How many more young ukrainian men are you prepared to see sacrificed to see off Russia.
Off we go again.
You would've thought the FSB had better things to do with their time.
He has to keep this up or he may fall off a balcony.
Labour saying new prisons will be deemed nationally significant and so decided by ministers is good, but we'll see if that survives individual MP outrage.
And money
If the prisons idea makes it into the manifesto then you can be sure they'll have costed it. They've been going out of their way to make as few spending commitments and revenue raising pledges as possible, as we know, so as to present the smallest possible target for the hapless Tories to try to hit.
The IFS were clear on Sky this morning that labours ruling out tax increases and with existing commitments, outside health and defence there is no money
Was there information about what they have *not* ruled out, eg new taxes or things not mentioned. Are there any Unmentioned Knowns in the gaps between the promises?
They warned ruling out the taxes they have is unsustainable
As amusing as the Leon-Sandpit bet is... It is not very realistic. It is almost impossible to see the Tories getting zero seats - but an effective zero of say sub-50 seats is plausible - maybe for odds of say 100-1
As amusing as the Leon-Sandpit bet is... It is not very realistic. It is almost impossible to see the Tories getting zero seats - but an effective zero of say sub-50 seats is plausible - maybe for odds of say 100-1
I reckon the chance of zero seats is closer to 10,000-1, and making the bet both made for a laugh on this forum, and totally made some Ukranian lady’s day when she got a huge donation to her charity for disabled veterans.
Sub-50 seats appears to be closer to 10/1 than 100/1.
Is £10 a lot in Ukraine?
GDP/capita is around $5,000 per year. Lots of people make a couple of hundred bucks a month. Then there’s the war context.
I hadn’t thought about it. Someone credible needs to help us know who we can donate to to help the people.
You can see her lanyard. That’s a volunteer by the flags in Maidan Square. £10
Now you have to give me £10,010 if - WHEN - the Tories get zero seats
Awesome!
We can both be happy. Out of a silly PB bet the Ukrainian charity for newly disabled soldiers has gained £10
Unless, of course, I win the bet…
Leon you have now admitted after you visited the memorial at least 200, 000 ukrainian men have died in this war. Thats a minimum. How many more young ukrainian men are you prepared to see sacrificed to see off Russia.
How many posts do we all reckon?
Studs up challenges from the off. Straight red by the tenth?
Edit; an early bath on six.
There isn't even a hatful of posts about the weather and Grealish being dropped by Southgate these days. It's a couple of first minute screamers over Ukraine or anti-vax and then they're gone.
You can see her lanyard. That’s a volunteer by the flags in Maidan Square. £10
Now you have to give me £10,010 if - WHEN - the Tories get zero seats
Awesome!
We can both be happy. Out of a silly PB bet the Ukrainian charity for newly disabled soldiers has gained £10
Unless, of course, I win the bet…
Leon you have now admitted after you visited the memorial at least 200, 000 ukrainian men have died in this war. Thats a minimum. How many more young ukrainian men are you prepared to see sacrificed to see off Russia.
How many posts do we all reckon?
A dozen?
Isn't he a day late? These guys usually start on Saturday. Vlad should dock his pay.
Those numbers are absolutely unbelievable and show how much at odds Western so-called "democratic" leaders are with their populations on Ukraine.
It's a survey compiled by the Institute for Global Affairs, part of @EurasiaGroup , one of the leading American political risk consultancies.
An incredible 94% of Americans and 88% of Western Europeans believe that "NATO member countries [should] push for a negotiated settlement for the war in Ukraine". And only a tiny minority in both countries (less than 20%) believe that the West should prioritize goals like "Weakening Russia" or "Restoring the pre-2022 borders of Ukraine", instead vastly favoring goals like "avoiding escalation" and "avoiding direct war between nuclear armed powers".
I always had the distinct feeling that most of the populations in the West were opposed to their governments' policies on Ukraine, but I never expected such overwhelming numbers. This says so much about Western "democracy" today, and also about the media class which tells us continuously how important fighting Russia is: not only do they not represent the voice of the people, but they really don't convince them either...
Another interesting and very related insight is that when asked "which of the following are the biggest challenges your country faces today?", by far the most popular answer is "political elites making decisions that hurt the public". Case in point...
As amusing as the Leon-Sandpit bet is... It is not very realistic. It is almost impossible to see the Tories getting zero seats - but an effective zero of say sub-50 seats is plausible - maybe for odds of say 100-1
I reckon the chance of zero seats is closer to 10,000-1, and making the bet both made for a laugh on this forum, and totally made some Ukranian lady’s day when she got a huge donation to her charity for disabled veterans.
Sub-50 seats appears to be closer to 10/1 than 100/1.
Is £10 a lot in Ukraine?
Easily the poorest country in Europe and has been getting poorer relative to Belarus and Russia due to comedy levels of corruption.
When I taught at the British Council (was not MI6) in Kiev in 2007 my kvartira rent was the equivalent of £24/month. I bought a (stolen from Germany) VW Polo for £80. etc., etc.
One solitary Labour poster in a window round here. Not mine. Nowt else. No leaflets, stalls, canvassers or owt.
Nothing so far either, which is surprising, considering that the Tory majority here is 18,000 which probably makes it a key marginal.
Noticeable lack of "literature" where I live, which must be considered a Con/LD marginal in the present situation.
Husband relates that we have actually had LD and Lab leaflets through the post, but he sent them straight to recycling. No sign of any posters around though.
Depending on whether this election ends with a mere thrashing or an asteroid impact, either the Tory survives narrowly or Labour will actually get in.
No posters here either.
I suspect both Con and LD party workers are thin on the ground.
You can see her lanyard. That’s a volunteer by the flags in Maidan Square. £10
Now you have to give me £10,010 if - WHEN - the Tories get zero seats
Awesome!
We can both be happy. Out of a silly PB bet the Ukrainian charity for newly disabled soldiers has gained £10
Unless, of course, I win the bet…
Leon you have now admitted after you visited the memorial at least 200, 000 ukrainian men have died in this war. Thats a minimum. How many more young ukrainian men are you prepared to see sacrificed to see off Russia.
How many posts do we all reckon?
What time does @rcs1000 wake up on a Sunday morning? I’m guessing 15 posts. Should I message in @Farooq?
Labour saying new prisons will be deemed nationally significant and so decided by ministers is good, but we'll see if that survives individual MP outrage.
Excellent policy. Vital infrastructure including railways, 4G/5G sites etc. next please in urban areas.
5000-6000 places could come from a modest reduction of those held on remand.
Which would presumably be achievable if only the courts worked more quickly? That's something else that needs bags of cash but is towards the back of the queue - mostly. The Labour manifesto is apparently going to contain some targeted measures to expedite the prosecution of rape cases, but that still leaves everything else to keep going to pot.
My photo quota today is going elsewhere, but if you look at the numbers the Remand Prison Population went steadily from ~10,000 in the period 2016-2019 to ~18,500 in 2024.
That could have been addressed, and there was plenty of time to do so.
This comes under the "Just Not Competent to Run a Bath" part of the CV of the current generation of senior Conservatives.
Agree with your comment - both more resources and more efficiency, which is why taxes need to increase.
You can see her lanyard. That’s a volunteer by the flags in Maidan Square. £10
Now you have to give me £10,010 if - WHEN - the Tories get zero seats
Awesome!
We can both be happy. Out of a silly PB bet the Ukrainian charity for newly disabled soldiers has gained £10
Unless, of course, I win the bet…
Leon you have now admitted after you visited the memorial at least 200, 000 ukrainian men have died in this war. Thats a minimum. How many more young ukrainian men are you prepared to see sacrificed to see off Russia.
Off we go again.
You would've thought the FSB had better things to do with their time.
Yeah I thought they were busy arresting scientist pensioners on their deathbeds.
This is the kind of thing Farage has been dying to say about Sunak, and Sunak has given him a fig leaf.
No he hasn't. There is no fig leaf for racism.
Obviously it's pandering to racism. But almost by definition, no statement about an individual, without overt reference to race, can be overtly racist.
It's that kind of innuendo that Sunak has given Farage the pretext for.
You can see her lanyard. That’s a volunteer by the flags in Maidan Square. £10
Now you have to give me £10,010 if - WHEN - the Tories get zero seats
Awesome!
We can both be happy. Out of a silly PB bet the Ukrainian charity for newly disabled soldiers has gained £10
Unless, of course, I win the bet…
Leon you have now admitted after you visited the memorial at least 200, 000 ukrainian men have died in this war. Thats a minimum. How many more young ukrainian men are you prepared to see sacrificed to see off Russia.
Hello
A plane crashes on the Ukraine/Republic of China border. Which side do you bury the survivors?
Some unsourced reports on Twitter that ministers have talked him put of resigning, but only if he is free take to more of a back seat in the campaign, with the ministers at the front.
Maybe he really has had enough.
In a presidential campaign, hiding the president seems, suboptimal...
It isn't a Presidential campaign though (although I realise a lot of people treat it as such and even Sunak has started that way).
I do like to see the other party politicians at the front. I want to know that a party is more than just its leader (hence Ref UK would never get my vote as it's just a one man vaniety project) so perhaps Sunak standing back and letting others step forward *could* work at stopping the rot.
Two posts got mashed together there, dunno what happened.
I'm off to the Red Wall to buy an M5 now. I'll report back on what, if any, levelling up I see.
I'll be interested in that.
There's stuff under Towns Fund and so on, but it does not account for more than a fraction of the funds and services withdrawn through 15 years of salami slicing.
You can see her lanyard. That’s a volunteer by the flags in Maidan Square. £10
Now you have to give me £10,010 if - WHEN - the Tories get zero seats
Awesome!
We can both be happy. Out of a silly PB bet the Ukrainian charity for newly disabled soldiers has gained £10
Unless, of course, I win the bet…
Leon you have now admitted after you visited the memorial at least 200, 000 ukrainian men have died in this war. Thats a minimum. How many more young ukrainian men are you prepared to see sacrificed to see off Russia.
Ukranians are planning on 100% given they will be murdered by Putin's evil barstewards if they don't see them off. Much better to have offed a shedload of scumbag Orcs before you go rather than wait to be tortured and murdered.
As amusing as the Leon-Sandpit bet is... It is not very realistic. It is almost impossible to see the Tories getting zero seats - but an effective zero of say sub-50 seats is plausible - maybe for odds of say 100-1
I reckon the chance of zero seats is closer to 10,000-1, and making the bet both made for a laugh on this forum, and totally made some Ukranian lady’s day when she got a huge donation to her charity for disabled veterans.
Sub-50 seats appears to be closer to 10/1 than 100/1.
Is £10 a lot in Ukraine?
GDP/capita is around $5,000 per year. Lots of people make a couple of hundred bucks a month. Then there’s the war context.
I hadn’t thought about it. Someone credible needs to help us know who we can donate to to help the people.
You can see her lanyard. That’s a volunteer by the flags in Maidan Square. £10
Now you have to give me £10,010 if - WHEN - the Tories get zero seats
Awesome!
We can both be happy. Out of a silly PB bet the Ukrainian charity for newly disabled soldiers has gained £10
Unless, of course, I win the bet…
Leon you have now admitted after you visited the memorial at least 200, 000 ukrainian men have died in this war. Thats a minimum. How many more young ukrainian men are you prepared to see sacrificed to see off Russia.
How many posts do we all reckon?
A dozen?
Isn't he a day late? These guys usually start on Saturday. Vlad should dock his pay.
Forgot to mention vaccines. Slipped up there. The quality of staff these days!
Our new friend seems anxious about Ukrainian losses in the current conflict. Doesn't mention Russian losses of course.
There is a perfectly good way to reduce losses on both sides and that's for Russian forces to withdraw unilaterally and unconditionally from all the territory they occupy within the internationally recognised borders of the Ukraine including Donetsk and the Crimea.
I suspect that will substantially reduce casualties on both sides.
Hunt and Sunak trying to promote the abolition of IHT would be a serious effort at beating "he left them on the beaches" for the worst moment in a campaign in recent times.
There is no mechanism in which Sunak can resign and somebody else take over.
Just think about it, the new leader would be in charge for five minutes and would inevitably lose. Nobody will take up that chalice.
There must be such a mechanism for the eventuality that a leader dies during the campaign.
If the PM dies during a campaign… I guess ask the Privy Council to find someone?
Cabinet are still in post and I suspect HMK would accept their agreed caretaker
The obvious choice is Cameron: he’s in the current Cabinet, he’s experienced at the job, and he isn’t directly involved in the election.
Oh indeed if such an event occured, Pudding face of Chipping Norton is your guy
I'm coming round to the thought that Cameron is possible even though impossible, insofar as he might be acceptable to the ambitious as he would not be a contender for post-election leader of the party because he will not be an MP. So maybe our ever-flexible constitution can be fudged for a couple of weeks. However, I expect in practice Rishi will stay and DPM Dowden take over as acting PM should the need arise.
One solitary Labour poster in a window round here. Not mine. Nowt else. No leaflets, stalls, canvassers or owt.
Nothing so far either, which is surprising, considering that the Tory majority here is 18,000 which probably makes it a key marginal.
Noticeable lack of "literature" where I live, which must be considered a Con/LD marginal in the present situation.
Husband relates that we have actually had LD and Lab leaflets through the post, but he sent them straight to recycling. No sign of any posters around though.
Depending on whether this election ends with a mere thrashing or an asteroid impact, either the Tory survives narrowly or Labour will actually get in.
No posters here either.
I suspect both Con and LD party workers are thin on the ground.
I'd expect that the local Tories are few in number and demoralised: their district council group was reduced to a rump last month. The local yellows are motivated and fielding a local councillor rather than a shipped in paper candidate, but they also came third last time so must be expecting to be squeezed.
Labour probably aren't doing much here either because they've not won a Parliamentary election in these parts for decades (we last had a Labour MP here when Shirley Williams was MP for Hitchin from 1964-1970,) and they've also got an embarrassment of riches falling into their lap. There are only so many resources to spread around your more ambitious targets when you're in with a realistic chance of making 300 gains.
Now you have to give me £10,010 if - WHEN - the Tories get zero seats
You are, however, quite the worst political forecaster on this site.
xx
No, he isn’t.
The sane reaction to 1000/1 odds on something like that is to put as much money as you wouldn't mind if you lost it in the street.
Bit like putting a few quid on the lottery
For bad political forecasting…
Yeah but my point is that it was two-way, no? Doesn’t he have to shell out £10k if they DON’T get zero seats?
If so, that’s sheer madness.
Or am I missing something? I wasn’t paying full attention, I confess.
Nope - full 1000/1 bet. Ten Thousand vs a Tenner.
Tho we have established that if @Sandpit is genuinely scared of losing his £10k he can probably make a slightly painful hedge
Hedging a bet is still paying up.
Years ago, drank with some Scandinavian bookies. Ran a spread betting outfit that generated a designed return, based on poor and mismatching odds on sports. Everything they bet was hedged in some way. They were personally banned from all the betting shops. I put some bets on for them - still remember the thrill of being banned for winning too much!
Our new friend seems anxious about Ukrainian losses in the current conflict. Doesn't mention Russian losses of course.
There is a perfectly good way to reduce losses on both sides and that's for Russian forces to withdraw unilaterally and unconditionally from all the territory they occupy within the internationally recognised borders of the Ukraine including Donetsk and the Crimea.
I suspect that will substantially reduce casualties on both sides.
That's the perfect solution for nearly everyone. There is one slight wrinkle, though: such a decision will cause just one extra Russian fatality; a certain V. Putin. Sadly for everyone, V. Putin sees himself as being 'worth' hundreds of thousands of his own countrymen; similar magnitudes of Ukrainians, and the Russian economy billions of dollars and vast lost opportunities.
V. Putin is a classic example of someone whose sense of his own worth is dramatically overestimated...
Hunt and Sunak trying to promote the abolition of IHT would be a serious effort at beating "he left them on the beaches" for the worst moment in a campaign in recent times.
Bribes for elderly voters and heirs in the wealthiest Home Counties seats. A policy targeting the core of the core vote, but it wouldn't surprise me if they went for it. They are very desperate.
Very funny but last night I went to a (very, very rare for me) military shindig. Some serving and plenty of retired soldiers age range I would say (incl those serving) 25-70.
I was on a very agreeable table and a friend leaned over to me, waved at the assembled masses and said: you see all these people, these people are Reform voters.
He is a local councillor and said that there had been a lot of eastern European immigration into the area and as a result "locals" couldn't find a school or GP or whatnot for love nor money.
It surprised him (as did the enthusiasm for Brexit seven years ago) but there you are.
They are making all the same mistakes all over again. In almost 20 years they've learned nothing and forgotten nothing.
Insinuating Farage is like the "SS" is just stupid Met hyberlibz hyperbolic bullshit that just accentuates division and fuels populism.
I think it’s rather Farage who accentuates division and fuels populism!
"Populist" and "far-right " are just words that some people use about politicians who are serious about stopping mass immigration.
When you crack jokes like "SS" ordinary people hear that you think they're Nazis for wanting something done about it, so think Foxtrot Oscar in return and thus amplify their vote.
The solution is to treat them respectfully and seriously address their concerns.
There are two competing schools of thought: 1) Migrants are critical to our economy and public services 2) The population is growing in vast numbers and we can't cope As usual in real life, both are right. Its a question of balance.
In the long term we need to train and equip a domestic workforce to do most of the things we need, with migrant labour providing specialism and expertise. The problem is that people don't seem to think that investment in training and development is worth their cash, hence the Tories scrapping nurses bursaries (one example of many). Nor do people want to do many of the jobs that migrants are essential for.
If we divert wasted cash from the spivocracy into frontline education, health, social and council service provision, most of the objections go away. We need to do that anyway so lets get on with it. Same with building homes and providing the infrastructure to cope with new homes.
Once we rebalance the equation so that things aren't as broken and stretched as they are, we can have a managed debate on migration which isn't "you would open the doors" from the people who have opened the doors vs "you hate foreigners"
You can see her lanyard. That’s a volunteer by the flags in Maidan Square. £10
Now you have to give me £10,010 if - WHEN - the Tories get zero seats
Awesome!
We can both be happy. Out of a silly PB bet the Ukrainian charity for newly disabled soldiers has gained £10
Unless, of course, I win the bet…
Leon you have now admitted after you visited the memorial at least 200, 000 ukrainian men have died in this war. Thats a minimum. How many more young ukrainian men are you prepared to see sacrificed to see off Russia.
How many posts do we all reckon?
A dozen?
Isn't he a day late? These guys usually start on Saturday. Vlad should dock his pay.
Forgot to mention vaccines. Slipped up there. The quality of staff these days!
FWIW, I occasionally see East Asian women with parasols in my area. It strikes me as both practical and attractive, but probably strikes most others here as eccentric.
(But then I am eccentric enough to occasionally wear a sun hat, appropriate for wilderness trails, in town. It's very practical when the sun is beating down -- which makes it quite unfashionable.)
Very funny but last night I went to a (very, very rare for me) military shindig. Some serving and plenty of retired soldiers age range I would say (incl those serving) 25-70.
I was on a very agreeable table and a friend leaned over to me, waved at the assembled masses and said: you see all these people, these people are Reform voters.
He is a local councillor and said that there had been a lot of eastern European immigration into the area and as a result "locals" couldn't find a school or GP or whatnot for love nor money.
It surprised him (as did the enthusiasm for Brexit seven years ago) but there you are.
They are making all the same mistakes all over again. In almost 20 years they've learned nothing and forgotten nothing.
Insinuating Farage is like the "SS" is just stupid Met hyberlibz hyperbolic bullshit that just accentuates division and fuels populism.
I think it’s rather Farage who accentuates division and fuels populism!
"Populist" and "far-right " are just words that some people use about politicians who are serious about stopping mass immigration.
When you crack jokes like "SS" ordinary people hear that you think they're Nazis for wanting something done about it, so think Foxtrot Oscar in return and thus amplify their vote.
The solution is to treat them respectfully and seriously address their concerns.
There are two competing schools of thought: 1) Migrants are critical to our economy and public services 2) The population is growing in vast numbers and we can't cope As usual in real life, both are right. Its a question of balance.
In the long term we need to train and equip a domestic workforce to do most of the things we need, with migrant labour providing specialism and expertise. The problem is that people don't seem to think that investment in training and development is worth their cash, hence the Tories scrapping nurses bursaries (one example of many). Nor do people want to do many of the jobs that migrants are essential for.
If we divert wasted cash from the spivocracy into frontline education, health, social and council service provision, most of the objections go away. We need to do that anyway so lets get on with it. Same with building homes and providing the infrastructure to cope with new homes.
Once we rebalance the equation so that things aren't as broken and stretched as they are, we can have a managed debate on migration which isn't "you would open the doors" from the people who have opened the doors vs "you hate foreigners"
IIRC more than 80% of the staff in old age care, nationwide, are U.K. citizens.
The “too posh to wash” myth reminds of Oriental Lassitude.
Parties aside, I think the Tories handled Covid OK. They protected millions of private sector jobs (whilst the public sector was still rightly getting its salaries and pensions - plus overtime). The process for getting the vaccines in place was one which undoubtedly delivered.
The only difference I can recall from Labour was that Starmer would have locked us down for another Christmas.
I think the Government have handled Ukraine very well.
Not that anyone remembers, but the Government handled the resulting rise in energy prices as well as it could afford to do, with large-scale energy bill subsidies.
This government came to power on the basis of investing in areas that had for generations voted Labour, in the expectation that they would finally get to see some cash. Sadly. Covid and Ukraine took all that money and more. The one saving grace is that if Corbyn had won in 2019, he would have already spent all the cash needed to get us through these two crises. God alone knows how we would have managed. In all likelihood, we would have had no money for furlough and be struggling with millions more unemployed.
One area where this Government does not blow its own trumpet is in jobs creation. They have an especially good case on youth unemployment - this is at low levels that prevous Labour governments could only dream about. When Labour says "What have you done for our young?", the answer is "Ensured they have jobs."
Each of these testing situations was a once-in-a-generation challenge. The government handled them as well as could have been expected. More importantly, I don't see a cigarette paper between how the Government responded - and how Labour says it would have handled things. Those desperate for change - you've effectively had a Labour government for the past five years. Prepare to be very disappointed.
It's unfortunate we won't get to see the results of the Covid inquiry until much later, but I think there will be a couple of stern words said about preparedness and the speed of response. It was very, very clear by February that the government needed to do something but Boris delayed for ideological reasons. He downplayed the severity, setting the wrong tone. These failures cost lives and I expect the report will say as much. This cultural blinkeredness continued, of course, through to the Downing Street parties. Further, I also think "eat out to help out" will attract some criticism for pushing up cases and for damaging the health messaging.
The preparedness thing will be a blame spread across many more people, of course.
The purpose here is to detail the potential mistakes, because your assessment of "ok" is probably correct, but you only gave positive examples. It we're going to add narrative to that judgement, we need to talk about the bad as well as the good.
I give them something of a pass on that, not because it was handled well, but because it's unclear anyone else would have done massively better on that. A 'perfect' response might significantly have altered the course of the UK pandemic, but given the infectivity of the virus, a bit better management wouldn't have done so.
The real failures IMO were the huge amounts of money blown on failing to transition quickly from expensive and slow PCR 'track and trace' policy to lateral flow tests; on were clearly corrupt contracts for PPE; and on fraudulent loans and the failure to recover significant amounts.
We'd still be financially stretched, but we might be anywhere between 50 and 100 £bn better off.
“Clearly corrupt”? Citation needed. A massive slur on thousands of hard working civil servants who did their best to implement an imperfect solution at speed, and a very naive view on how much influence politicians can have over that much procurement.
Those who want to hammer the Tories on "clearly corrupt" PPE contracts seem to have been zapped with a Men In Black memory eraser - of when Labour were saying the Government should have entered into a bunch of PPE contracts that, er, did not stand up to a moment's scrutiny.
You can guarantee failure to provide PPE would have been an ongoing theme in this election, if the Government had left the NHS without masks and gowns.
One can well imagine the cabinet meetings, where “Does anyone know anyone who knows anyone who can get hold of this stuff?” was said.
Another party in government would have done exactly the same, and IIRC at the time there were a lot of Labour figures pitching their own ‘preferred suppliers’ to the government.
That said, those suppliers who who were paid and didn’t deliver should be harried to make amends, and any politician who took an unusual payment from any supplier should also be investigated.
IANAL but I do own the Rumpole box set and I'm not sure it is a valid defence to bank robbery or PPE fraud to say not that there were other bank robbers or fraudsters, or bog-standard whataboutery, but that there might hypothetically have been fraud in some parallel universe run by a different government.
There is no mechanism in which Sunak can resign and somebody else take over.
Just think about it, the new leader would be in charge for five minutes and would inevitably lose. Nobody will take up that chalice.
There must be such a mechanism for the eventuality that a leader dies during the campaign.
If the PM dies during a campaign… I guess ask the Privy Council to find someone?
Cabinet are still in post and I suspect HMK would accept their agreed caretaker
The obvious choice is Cameron: he’s in the current Cabinet, he’s experienced at the job, and he isn’t directly involved in the election.
Oh indeed if such an event occured, Pudding face of Chipping Norton is your guy
I'm coming round to the thought that Cameron is possible even though impossible, insofar as he might be acceptable to the ambitious as he would not be a contender for post-election leader of the party because he will not be an MP. So maybe our ever-flexible constitution can be fudged for a couple of weeks. However, I expect in practice Rishi will stay and DPM Dowden take over as acting PM should the need arise.
Given there's no HoC of which to command a majority or be answerable to, I think DC, with his previous experience, would be as good a shout as anyone (and arguably better than a future contender), especially given the likelihood that it would be very much a time-limited appointment until 8am on July 5.
I tend to agree that it would be a Privy Council - in practice cabinet possibly backed by Starmer, Davey and Flynn - recommendation to the King, with the opposition agreeing the convention of accepting the status quo ante.
(But.. once again.. I only see it happening if Sunak died. In almost any other situation, he'd stay as PM)
Now you have to give me £10,010 if - WHEN - the Tories get zero seats
You are, however, quite the worst political forecaster on this site.
xx
No, he isn’t.
The sane reaction to 1000/1 odds on something like that is to put as much money as you wouldn't mind if you lost it in the street.
Bit like putting a few quid on the lottery
For bad political forecasting…
Yeah but my point is that it was two-way, no? Doesn’t he have to shell out £10k if they DON’T get zero seats?
If so, that’s sheer madness.
Or am I missing something? I wasn’t paying full attention, I confess.
Nope - full 1000/1 bet. Ten Thousand vs a Tenner.
Tho we have established that if @Sandpit is genuinely scared of losing his £10k he can probably make a slightly painful hedge
Hedging a bet is still paying up.
Years ago, drank with some Scandinavian bookies. Ran a spread betting outfit that generated a designed return, based on poor and mismatching odds on sports. Everything they bet was hedged in some way. They were personally banned from all the betting shops. I put some bets on for them - still remember the thrill of being banned for winning too much!
There’s a really good Rogan interview with Billy Walters, the OG sports bettor from decades ago. He used to put seven figures up every weekend in Vegas, and had dozens of people running around town for him trying to avoid being banned from the sports books in the casinos.
So we're left with "there is no magic door, behind which the ninjas are" theory. His success has been down to some talent, some hard work, but mostly luck, bluster and being in the right place at the right time. And now his luck has run out, so the bluster isn't working, so everything is falling apart.
Rishi's misfortune is for that to be happening to him on one of the biggest stages of all.
At some point we are going to have to rewrite his biography
He was unlucky enough to be elected for Richmond, unlucky enough to become Chancellor, and terminally unlucky to become Prime Minister by mistake.
Now you have to give me £10,010 if - WHEN - the Tories get zero seats
You are, however, quite the worst political forecaster on this site.
xx
No, he isn’t.
The sane reaction to 1000/1 odds on something like that is to put as much money as you wouldn't mind if you lost it in the street.
Bit like putting a few quid on the lottery
For bad political forecasting…
Yeah but my point is that it was two-way, no? Doesn’t he have to shell out £10k if they DON’T get zero seats?
If so, that’s sheer madness.
Or am I missing something? I wasn’t paying full attention, I confess.
Nope - full 1000/1 bet. Ten Thousand vs a Tenner.
Tho we have established that if @Sandpit is genuinely scared of losing his £10k he can probably make a slightly painful hedge
Hedging a bet is still paying up.
Years ago, drank with some Scandinavian bookies. Ran a spread betting outfit that generated a designed return, based on poor and mismatching odds on sports. Everything they bet was hedged in some way. They were personally banned from all the betting shops. I put some bets on for them - still remember the thrill of being banned for winning too much!
There’s a really good Rogan interview with Billy Walters, the OG sports bettor from decades ago. He used to put seven figures up every weekend in Vegas, and had dozens of people running around town for him trying to avoid being banned from the sports books in the casinos.
In the words of British pro-punter Patrick Veitch: "The Vegas casinos are not as brave as you might expect when it comes to advance betting".
My god. I was all bubbly and jovial. And then I got a cab to Maidan square and now I am standing in front of THIS and there are women either side of me weeping. Every flag is a fallen Ukrainian soldier
This is just one part of it. The flags go on and on. Quite close to blubbing myself.
We cannot let them lose!
Slava ukraini
What a journey, from someone who started out as Putin's little cheerleader.
Yes, quite a journey. I’ve actually come to Ukraine - twice. I’ve been to Lviv and chernivtsi, Kyiv and Odessa. I’ve heard bombs fall on the castle of Kamanets podolski’y. I saw a chunk of missile fall on my own street in Odessa. I watched and heard the ack ack over the Potemkin steps as Putin’s drones came in - two nights ago
I’ve seen Ukrainians in crutches, I’ve met Ukrainian draft dodgers, I’ve talked to Ukrainians who have lost ALL their schoolfriends, and now I’m standing in front of the memorial to 200,000 dead Ukrainians in maidan square listening to the widows crying and in all that time you’ve been pootling around fucking Norway with your stupid little dog
Nevertheless it's a serious political point. It's too easy to get suckered into supporting a dictator for the supposed good they are doing or for some of their values, blind to their true nature and the often brutal consequences for their opponents abroad and at home. The same happened during the 1930s when, prior to war, Hitler had plenty of little cheerleaders in the UK, and even some bigger ones.
The lesson for you is to exercise a bit more thought and foresight before throwing in your lot with those of extreme politics. Most of us don't need to see actual bombs dropping to spot politics and people who are malign.
My god. I was all bubbly and jovial. And then I got a cab to Maidan square and now I am standing in front of THIS and there are women either side of me weeping. Every flag is a fallen Ukrainian soldier
This is just one part of it. The flags go on and on. Quite close to blubbing myself.
We cannot let them lose!
Slava ukraini
What a journey, from someone who started out as Putin's little cheerleader.
Yes, quite a journey. I’ve actually come to Ukraine - twice. I’ve been to Lviv and chernivtsi, Kyiv and Odessa. I’ve heard bombs fall on the castle of Kamanets podolski’y. I saw a chunk of missile fall on my own street in Odessa. I watched and heard the ack ack over the Potemkin steps as Putin’s drones came in - two nights ago
I’ve seen Ukrainians in crutches, I’ve met Ukrainian draft dodgers, I’ve talked to Ukrainians who have lost ALL their schoolfriends, and now I’m standing in front of the memorial to 200,000 dead Ukrainians in maidan square listening to the widows crying and in all that time you’ve been pootling around fucking Norway with your stupid little dog
Nevertheless it's a serious political point. It's too easy to get suckered into supporting a dictator for the supposed good they are doing or for some of their values, blind to their true nature and the often brutal consequences for their opponents abroad and at home. The same happened during the 1930s when, prior to war, Hitler had plenty of little cheerleaders in the UK, and even some bigger ones.
The lesson for you is to exercise a bit more thought and foresight before throwing in your lot with those of extreme politics. Most of us don't need to see actual bombs dropping to spot politics and people who are malign.
Alternatively you’re a sad, castrated suburban fool from ventnor and some people actually have the bollocks to go and see this war for themselves. Let the viewer decide
No amount of random abuse can change the fact that you were once Putin’s little helper, and it took way too long for you to see what was already obvious to the rest of us.
There’s no ‘bollocks’ involved. Although maybe a bit of misplaced small-dick energy.
Very funny but last night I went to a (very, very rare for me) military shindig. Some serving and plenty of retired soldiers age range I would say (incl those serving) 25-70.
I was on a very agreeable table and a friend leaned over to me, waved at the assembled masses and said: you see all these people, these people are Reform voters.
He is a local councillor and said that there had been a lot of eastern European immigration into the area and as a result "locals" couldn't find a school or GP or whatnot for love nor money.
It surprised him (as did the enthusiasm for Brexit seven years ago) but there you are.
They are making all the same mistakes all over again. In almost 20 years they've learned nothing and forgotten nothing.
Insinuating Farage is like the "SS" is just stupid Met hyberlibz hyperbolic bullshit that just accentuates division and fuels populism.
I think it’s rather Farage who accentuates division and fuels populism!
"Populist" and "far-right " are just words that some people use about politicians who are serious about stopping mass immigration.
When you crack jokes like "SS" ordinary people hear that you think they're Nazis for wanting something done about it, so think Foxtrot Oscar in return and thus amplify their vote.
The solution is to treat them respectfully and seriously address their concerns.
"Populist" can also mean lunatics from the left who sell immigration control and other cheap snake oil remedies to those willing to buy.
My god. I was all bubbly and jovial. And then I got a cab to Maidan square and now I am standing in front of THIS and there are women either side of me weeping. Every flag is a fallen Ukrainian soldier
This is just one part of it. The flags go on and on. Quite close to blubbing myself.
We cannot let them lose!
Slava ukraini
What a journey, from someone who started out as Putin's little cheerleader.
Yes, quite a journey. I’ve actually come to Ukraine - twice. I’ve been to Lviv and chernivtsi, Kyiv and Odessa. I’ve heard bombs fall on the castle of Kamanets podolski’y. I saw a chunk of missile fall on my own street in Odessa. I watched and heard the ack ack over the Potemkin steps as Putin’s drones came in - two nights ago
I’ve seen Ukrainians in crutches, I’ve met Ukrainian draft dodgers, I’ve talked to Ukrainians who have lost ALL their schoolfriends, and now I’m standing in front of the memorial to 200,000 dead Ukrainians in maidan square listening to the widows crying and in all that time you’ve been pootling around fucking Norway with your stupid little dog
Nevertheless it's a serious political point. It's too easy to get suckered into supporting a dictator for the supposed good they are doing or for some of their values, blind to their true nature and the often brutal consequences for their opponents abroad and at home. The same happened during the 1930s when, prior to war, Hitler had plenty of little cheerleaders in the UK, and even some bigger ones.
The lesson for you is to exercise a bit more thought and foresight before throwing in your lot with those of extreme politics. Most of us don't need to see actual bombs dropping to spot politics and people who are malign.
My god. I was all bubbly and jovial. And then I got a cab to Maidan square and now I am standing in front of THIS and there are women either side of me weeping. Every flag is a fallen Ukrainian soldier
This is just one part of it. The flags go on and on. Quite close to blubbing myself.
We cannot let them lose!
Slava ukraini
What a journey, from someone who started out as Putin's little cheerleader.
Yes, quite a journey. I’ve actually come to Ukraine - twice. I’ve been to Lviv and chernivtsi, Kyiv and Odessa. I’ve heard bombs fall on the castle of Kamanets podolski’y. I saw a chunk of missile fall on my own street in Odessa. I watched and heard the ack ack over the Potemkin steps as Putin’s drones came in - two nights ago
I’ve seen Ukrainians in crutches, I’ve met Ukrainian draft dodgers, I’ve talked to Ukrainians who have lost ALL their schoolfriends, and now I’m standing in front of the memorial to 200,000 dead Ukrainians in maidan square listening to the widows crying and in all that time you’ve been pootling around fucking Norway with your stupid little dog
Nevertheless it's a serious political point. It's too easy to get suckered into supporting a dictator for the supposed good they are doing or for some of their values, blind to their true nature and the often brutal consequences for their opponents abroad and at home. The same happened during the 1930s when, prior to war, Hitler had plenty of little cheerleaders in the UK, and even some bigger ones.
The lesson for you is to exercise a bit more thought and foresight before throwing in your lot with those of extreme politics. Most of us don't need to see actual bombs dropping to spot politics and people who are malign.
Alternatively you’re a sad, castrated suburban fool from ventnor and some people actually have the bollocks to go and see this war for themselves. Let the viewer decide
No amount of random abuse can change the fact that you were once Putin’s little helper, and it took way too long for you to see what was already obvious to the rest of us.
There’s no ‘bollocks’ involved. Although maybe a bit of misplaced small-dick energy.
Is JK Rowling Putin’s little helper because of her stance against trans ideology?
Heat is a scary thing. I have a little experience in mountain rescue training and my advice to PBers is always drink when thirsty. Do not conserve water if your mouth is dry.
Too many cases of people with plenty of water left over wandering off trail in confusion or losing consciousness. It can also keep creep up on you where you least expect it - a hot day in May but you've still got your crampons on for the ice, for example.
You can see her lanyard. That’s a volunteer by the flags in Maidan Square. £10
Now you have to give me £10,010 if - WHEN - the Tories get zero seats
Awesome!
We can both be happy. Out of a silly PB bet the Ukrainian charity for newly disabled soldiers has gained £10
Unless, of course, I win the bet…
Leon you have now admitted after you visited the memorial at least 200, 000 ukrainian men have died in this war. Thats a minimum. How many more young ukrainian men are you prepared to see sacrificed to see off Russia.
20,000 soldiers and 180,000 citizens killed by Russian artillery and missiles is probably nearer the mark...
My god. I was all bubbly and jovial. And then I got a cab to Maidan square and now I am standing in front of THIS and there are women either side of me weeping. Every flag is a fallen Ukrainian soldier
This is just one part of it. The flags go on and on. Quite close to blubbing myself.
We cannot let them lose!
Slava ukraini
What a journey, from someone who started out as Putin's little cheerleader.
Yes, quite a journey. I’ve actually come to Ukraine - twice. I’ve been to Lviv and chernivtsi, Kyiv and Odessa. I’ve heard bombs fall on the castle of Kamanets podolski’y. I saw a chunk of missile fall on my own street in Odessa. I watched and heard the ack ack over the Potemkin steps as Putin’s drones came in - two nights ago
I’ve seen Ukrainians in crutches, I’ve met Ukrainian draft dodgers, I’ve talked to Ukrainians who have lost ALL their schoolfriends, and now I’m standing in front of the memorial to 200,000 dead Ukrainians in maidan square listening to the widows crying and in all that time you’ve been pootling around fucking Norway with your stupid little dog
Nevertheless it's a serious political point. It's too easy to get suckered into supporting a dictator for the supposed good they are doing or for some of their values, blind to their true nature and the often brutal consequences for their opponents abroad and at home. The same happened during the 1930s when, prior to war, Hitler had plenty of little cheerleaders in the UK, and even some bigger ones.
The lesson for you is to exercise a bit more thought and foresight before throwing in your lot with those of extreme politics. Most of us don't need to see actual bombs dropping to spot politics and people who are malign.
My god. I was all bubbly and jovial. And then I got a cab to Maidan square and now I am standing in front of THIS and there are women either side of me weeping. Every flag is a fallen Ukrainian soldier
This is just one part of it. The flags go on and on. Quite close to blubbing myself.
We cannot let them lose!
Slava ukraini
What a journey, from someone who started out as Putin's little cheerleader.
Yes, quite a journey. I’ve actually come to Ukraine - twice. I’ve been to Lviv and chernivtsi, Kyiv and Odessa. I’ve heard bombs fall on the castle of Kamanets podolski’y. I saw a chunk of missile fall on my own street in Odessa. I watched and heard the ack ack over the Potemkin steps as Putin’s drones came in - two nights ago
I’ve seen Ukrainians in crutches, I’ve met Ukrainian draft dodgers, I’ve talked to Ukrainians who have lost ALL their schoolfriends, and now I’m standing in front of the memorial to 200,000 dead Ukrainians in maidan square listening to the widows crying and in all that time you’ve been pootling around fucking Norway with your stupid little dog
Nevertheless it's a serious political point. It's too easy to get suckered into supporting a dictator for the supposed good they are doing or for some of their values, blind to their true nature and the often brutal consequences for their opponents abroad and at home. The same happened during the 1930s when, prior to war, Hitler had plenty of little cheerleaders in the UK, and even some bigger ones.
The lesson for you is to exercise a bit more thought and foresight before throwing in your lot with those of extreme politics. Most of us don't need to see actual bombs dropping to spot politics and people who are malign.
Alternatively you’re a sad, castrated suburban fool from ventnor and some people actually have the bollocks to go and see this war for themselves. Let the viewer decide
No amount of random abuse can change the fact that you were once Putin’s little helper, and it took way too long for you to see what was already obvious to the rest of us.
There’s no ‘bollocks’ involved. Although maybe a bit of misplaced small-dick energy.
My mere presence here challenges the masculinity of some PBers, I’ve realised. You and @DougSeal for starters. Also @Nigel_Foremain probably
Hey ho. I’m off to “the Montmartre of Kyiv”. Its probably a lot more interesting than the actual Montmartre
You can see her lanyard. That’s a volunteer by the flags in Maidan Square. £10
Now you have to give me £10,010 if - WHEN - the Tories get zero seats
Awesome!
We can both be happy. Out of a silly PB bet the Ukrainian charity for newly disabled soldiers has gained £10
Unless, of course, I win the bet…
Leon you have now admitted after you visited the memorial at least 200, 000 ukrainian men have died in this war. Thats a minimum. How many more young ukrainian men are you prepared to see sacrificed to see off Russia.
20,000 soldiers and 180,000 citizens killed by Russian artillery and missiles is probably nearer the mark...
Sadly I don’t think 200,000 dead and injured Ukrainian soldiers is absurdly wide of the mark
The Ukrainian government keeps a tight lid on death stats but an educated guess can be made
So we're left with "there is no magic door, behind which the ninjas are" theory. His success has been down to some talent, some hard work, but mostly luck, bluster and being in the right place at the right time. And now his luck has run out, so the bluster isn't working, so everything is falling apart.
Rishi's misfortune is for that to be happening to him on one of the biggest stages of all.
At some point we are going to have to rewrite his biography
He was unlucky enough to be elected for Richmond, unlucky enough to become Chancellor, and terminally unlucky to become Prime Minister by mistake.
Sometimes, the worst bit of luck you can have is to get given the thing you wanted.
Ok, my intention was it would be one question per person, but things have proliferated a bit. So for now, I'll keep track of everything as best I can but I think we need to clear things up and edit things down a bit to make it manageable. Especially around the multi-part questions. Eg, I really like JackW's "smallest number of votes", but it's currently ambiguous and I don't like the "which seat" part of it. Generally, I'd like the questions to be numerical so "how many seats..." good but "which seat..." less good.
I'll keep compiling for now, midnight the cutoff for new questions. Then I'll edit them down and iron out ambiguities. I won't rigidly stick to one question each, so keep suggesting
How many questions there should be? Nobody will want to answer 50. Is 25 too many?
So far:
Farooq: How many Reform > Con seats? eek: time of first Tory win (based on the time the words - and XYZ (the Tory candidate) is the winner) Stuartinromford: First seat to declare a Conservative win. IanB2: in how many seats will Labour come third (or lower) SandyRentool: Narrowest winning vote margin in any constituency SandyRentool: Widest winning vote margin in any constituency Ghedebrav: Number of party leaders standing who win a seat TimS: Largest seat majority to be overturned LostPassword: Number of Conservative lost deposits would be my question. londonpubman: Number of Lib Dem lost deposits would be my question. londonpubman: Number of Labour lost deposits would be my question. londonpubman: Number of Reform lost deposits would be my question. Verulamius: Number of isolated constituencies Heathener: Party vote shares Heathener: Party seats Heathener: Clacton winner dixiedean: which constituency will have the largest Con vote share? dixiedean: which constituency will have the largest Lab vote share? dixiedean: which constituency will have the largest Lib vote share? dixiedean: which constituency will have the largest Ref vote share? dixiedean: which constituency will have the largest Grn vote share? dixiedean: seats per party in NI Chameleon: lowest winning percentage, and which seat will it be, and who wins it? Muesli: party leaderssorry, I'm not going to include longer-term predictions that span through to the end of the year. Feel free to find a different question, but make it something that will be definitively answered within a reasonable time, say 1 week, after the GE. I'm hoping most questions will be answered within 24 hours of the close of polls. bondegezou: Number of political parties *elected* in the new Parliament (I'm assuming here that if, say three true independents are elected, that will count as ONE, not three) whether or not they take their seats. TimS: seats taken from third place (I'm going to suggest that this should be from third OR LOWER) JackW: First to declare and what time. JackW: Smallest number of votes and which seat. JackW: Exit poll numbers. Fairliered: Smallest margin between 1st and 3rd. Smallest margin between 1st and 4th.
My god. I was all bubbly and jovial. And then I got a cab to Maidan square and now I am standing in front of THIS and there are women either side of me weeping. Every flag is a fallen Ukrainian soldier
This is just one part of it. The flags go on and on. Quite close to blubbing myself.
We cannot let them lose!
Slava ukraini
What a journey, from someone who started out as Putin's little cheerleader.
Yes, quite a journey. I’ve actually come to Ukraine - twice. I’ve been to Lviv and chernivtsi, Kyiv and Odessa. I’ve heard bombs fall on the castle of Kamanets podolski’y. I saw a chunk of missile fall on my own street in Odessa. I watched and heard the ack ack over the Potemkin steps as Putin’s drones came in - two nights ago
I’ve seen Ukrainians in crutches, I’ve met Ukrainian draft dodgers, I’ve talked to Ukrainians who have lost ALL their schoolfriends, and now I’m standing in front of the memorial to 200,000 dead Ukrainians in maidan square listening to the widows crying and in all that time you’ve been pootling around fucking Norway with your stupid little dog
Nevertheless it's a serious political point. It's too easy to get suckered into supporting a dictator for the supposed good they are doing or for some of their values, blind to their true nature and the often brutal consequences for their opponents abroad and at home. The same happened during the 1930s when, prior to war, Hitler had plenty of little cheerleaders in the UK, and even some bigger ones.
The lesson for you is to exercise a bit more thought and foresight before throwing in your lot with those of extreme politics. Most of us don't need to see actual bombs dropping to spot politics and people who are malign.
My god. I was all bubbly and jovial. And then I got a cab to Maidan square and now I am standing in front of THIS and there are women either side of me weeping. Every flag is a fallen Ukrainian soldier
This is just one part of it. The flags go on and on. Quite close to blubbing myself.
We cannot let them lose!
Slava ukraini
What a journey, from someone who started out as Putin's little cheerleader.
Yes, quite a journey. I’ve actually come to Ukraine - twice. I’ve been to Lviv and chernivtsi, Kyiv and Odessa. I’ve heard bombs fall on the castle of Kamanets podolski’y. I saw a chunk of missile fall on my own street in Odessa. I watched and heard the ack ack over the Potemkin steps as Putin’s drones came in - two nights ago
I’ve seen Ukrainians in crutches, I’ve met Ukrainian draft dodgers, I’ve talked to Ukrainians who have lost ALL their schoolfriends, and now I’m standing in front of the memorial to 200,000 dead Ukrainians in maidan square listening to the widows crying and in all that time you’ve been pootling around fucking Norway with your stupid little dog
Nevertheless it's a serious political point. It's too easy to get suckered into supporting a dictator for the supposed good they are doing or for some of their values, blind to their true nature and the often brutal consequences for their opponents abroad and at home. The same happened during the 1930s when, prior to war, Hitler had plenty of little cheerleaders in the UK, and even some bigger ones.
The lesson for you is to exercise a bit more thought and foresight before throwing in your lot with those of extreme politics. Most of us don't need to see actual bombs dropping to spot politics and people who are malign.
Alternatively you’re a sad, castrated suburban fool from ventnor and some people actually have the bollocks to go and see this war for themselves. Let the viewer decide
No amount of random abuse can change the fact that you were once Putin’s little helper, and it took way too long for you to see what was already obvious to the rest of us.
There’s no ‘bollocks’ involved. Although maybe a bit of misplaced small-dick energy.
My mere presence here challenges the masculinity of some PBers, I’ve realised. You and @DougSeal for starters. Also @Nigel_Foremain probably
Hey ho. I’m off to “the Montmartre of Kyiv”. Its probably a lot more interesting than the actual Montmartre
Check out No. 15 - seems like it might be, er, right up your street:
" House №15, nicknamed by a Russian poet ‘the Castle of Richard the Lionheart,’ is the most unusual and mysterious one. The apartment house, created in English Neo-Gothic style reminiscent of a medieval castle, is the subject of many legends..."
And why do they keep rejoining? Can somebody explain the rationale here, are they just trying to recruit anyone?
They are employed to try and shift the Overton Window of online forums. The theory is that this then affects public discourse.
A number of U.K. politicians read PB. Which makes it a priority target, probably.
May work on the Daily Mail website, Facebook, etc. Need to be much sharper with your arguments here. And know the UK very well. (eg, the working classes will revolt against gay rights. We've gone over and over that fallacy). If anything it's narrowed the Overton Window on here.
You can see her lanyard. That’s a volunteer by the flags in Maidan Square. £10
Now you have to give me £10,010 if - WHEN - the Tories get zero seats
Awesome!
We can both be happy. Out of a silly PB bet the Ukrainian charity for newly disabled soldiers has gained £10
Unless, of course, I win the bet…
Leon you have now admitted after you visited the memorial at least 200, 000 ukrainian men have died in this war. Thats a minimum. How many more young ukrainian men are you prepared to see sacrificed to see off Russia.
Off we go again.
You would've thought the FSB had better things to do with their time.
He has to keep this up or he may fall off a balcony.
"What did he die of" "He was an intruder, sah!" "He went thru the glass, off the balcony, and down to the street below!" "In-tru-der window, sah!"
You can see her lanyard. That’s a volunteer by the flags in Maidan Square. £10
Now you have to give me £10,010 if - WHEN - the Tories get zero seats
Awesome!
We can both be happy. Out of a silly PB bet the Ukrainian charity for newly disabled soldiers has gained £10
Unless, of course, I win the bet…
Leon you have now admitted after you visited the memorial at least 200, 000 ukrainian men have died in this war. Thats a minimum. How many more young ukrainian men are you prepared to see sacrificed to see off Russia.
20,000 soldiers and 180,000 citizens killed by Russian artillery and missiles is probably nearer the mark...
There's an issue here with 'casualties' and 'deaths'. I can easily believe that there have been 20,000 Ukrainian soldier *deaths* in this war - indeed, I'd think that would be low. But many of the figures, including those of Russian casualties published by the Ukrainian government (*), are casualties: people wounded or dead. Some of those wounded will make their way back to the front lines.
I've seen figures estimating that for every three or four Russian soldiers injured, one is killed. For Ukraine; six to eight injured for every one killed. This is in part because of Russia's poor field medicine, and the way they are fighting the war.
And why do they keep rejoining? Can somebody explain the rationale here, are they just trying to recruit anyone?
They are employed to try and shift the Overton Window of online forums. The theory is that this then affects public discourse.
A number of U.K. politicians read PB. Which makes it a priority target, probably.
It’s also something that can be pointed to and linked to in the Russian equivalent of the Daily Mail and social media “look at this influential (hmm) British website where politicians from the UK post, even they are saying Ukraine is losing and vaccinations were bad” etc etc.
That’s the best reason to shut them down asap, not because they have a hope in hell of changing minds, but their tolerance can be used to suggest they are genuine with accepted views.
Hunt and Sunak trying to promote the abolition of IHT would be a serious effort at beating "he left them on the beaches" for the worst moment in a campaign in recent times.
Given 55% of voters and 70% of Tory voters want to abolish IHT completely and 65% of voters and 77% of Tory voters want to raise the £325k threshold at which it is paid it certainly wouldn't.
Hunt and Sunak trying to promote the abolition of IHT would be a serious effort at beating "he left them on the beaches" for the worst moment in a campaign in recent times.
Given 55% of voters and 70% of Tory voters want to abolish IHT completely and 65% of voters and 77% of Tory voters want to raise the £325k threshold at which it is paid it certainly wouldn't.
Jeremy Hunt is a multi-millionaire, and Rishi (and his good lady wife) is not short of a bob or two. It would not need Labour to point out the blatant self-interest in abolishing IHT. Like Nixon to China, abolition would need to be carried out by someone disinterested.
Hunt and Sunak trying to promote the abolition of IHT would be a serious effort at beating "he left them on the beaches" for the worst moment in a campaign in recent times.
Given 55% of voters and 70% of Tory voters want to abolish IHT completely and 65% of voters and 77% of Tory voters want to raise the £325k threshold at which it is paid it certainly wouldn't.
But that's a "would you like a hot date with Margot Robbie?" question. Nobody likes paying taxes, everyone would like to be able to abolish taxes. The trouble is that, right now, there's no capacity in the government budgets to do that- as things stand, we need to cut spending and raise taxes.
And in that situation, IHT really isn't a priority.
You can see her lanyard. That’s a volunteer by the flags in Maidan Square. £10
Now you have to give me £10,010 if - WHEN - the Tories get zero seats
Awesome!
We can both be happy. Out of a silly PB bet the Ukrainian charity for newly disabled soldiers has gained £10
Unless, of course, I win the bet…
Leon you have now admitted after you visited the memorial at least 200, 000 ukrainian men have died in this war. Thats a minimum. How many more young ukrainian men are you prepared to see sacrificed to see off Russia.
Hello
A plane crashes on the Ukraine/Republic of China border. Which side do you bury the survivors?
Hunt and Sunak trying to promote the abolition of IHT would be a serious effort at beating "he left them on the beaches" for the worst moment in a campaign in recent times.
Given 55% of voters and 70% of Tory voters want to abolish IHT completely and 65% of voters and 77% of Tory voters want to raise the £325k threshold at which it is paid it certainly wouldn't.
But that's a "would you like a hot date with Margot Robbie?" question. Nobody likes paying taxes, everyone would like to be able to abolish taxes. The trouble is that, right now, there's no capacity in the government budgets to do that- as things stand, we need to cut spending and raise taxes.
And in that situation, IHT really isn't a priority.
"Would you like to abolish inheritance tax for the wealthy and increase income tax for everyone else?" would be a more balanced question.
And why do they keep rejoining? Can somebody explain the rationale here, are they just trying to recruit anyone?
They are employed to try and shift the Overton Window of online forums. The theory is that this then affects public discourse.
A number of U.K. politicians read PB. Which makes it a priority target, probably.
It’s also something that can be pointed to and linked to in the Russian equivalent of the Daily Mail and social media “look at this influential (hmm) British website where politicians from the UK post, even they are saying Ukraine is losing and vaccinations were bad” etc etc.
That’s the best reason to shut them down asap, not because they have a hope in hell of changing minds, but their tolerance can be used to suggest they are genuine with accepted views.
I have a slightly more cynical view: Russian disinformation is better than this. These fools are chickenfeed to stop us searching for the real disinformation that is being fed....
You can see her lanyard. That’s a volunteer by the flags in Maidan Square. £10
Now you have to give me £10,010 if - WHEN - the Tories get zero seats
Awesome!
We can both be happy. Out of a silly PB bet the Ukrainian charity for newly disabled soldiers has gained £10
Unless, of course, I win the bet…
Leon you have now admitted after you visited the memorial at least 200, 000 ukrainian men have died in this war. Thats a minimum. How many more young ukrainian men are you prepared to see sacrificed to see off Russia.
20,000 soldiers and 180,000 citizens killed by Russian artillery and missiles is probably nearer the mark...
There's an issue here with 'casualties' and 'deaths'. I can easily believe that there have been 20,000 Ukrainian soldier *deaths* in this war - indeed, I'd think that would be low. But many of the figures, including those of Russian casualties published by the Ukrainian government (*), are casualties: people wounded or dead. Some of those wounded will make their way back to the front lines.
I've seen figures estimating that for every three or four Russian soldiers injured, one is killed. For Ukraine; six to eight injured for every one killed. This is in part because of Russia's poor field medicine, and the way they are fighting the war.
(*) which is generally being backed up
Leon was looking at a field of flags, each representing a grave - so hopefully they are only burying the dead.
But yes, the number of people being physically maimed for life is huge, on both sides. Some of them soldiers. Some of them citizens, from shells and missiles. Most of these citizens being Ukrainians, but it is now a real risk for those living in Russia near the border.
Where I do agree with @Jonathan is that Farage's comments about Sunak not "understanding our culture" is a pretty ugly and fairly blatant dogwhistle, and even if it's an accident - which I'm not sure it is - it indicates a concerning blindspot.
Yes, Sunak might blow up again - largely through naivete, not malice - but so can Farage and this sort of stuff explains why he so readily turns people off.
Hunt and Sunak trying to promote the abolition of IHT would be a serious effort at beating "he left them on the beaches" for the worst moment in a campaign in recent times.
Given 55% of voters and 70% of Tory voters want to abolish IHT completely and 65% of voters and 77% of Tory voters want to raise the £325k threshold at which it is paid it certainly wouldn't.
But that's a "would you like a hot date with Margot Robbie?" question. Nobody likes paying taxes, everyone would like to be able to abolish taxes. The trouble is that, right now, there's no capacity in the government budgets to do that- as things stand, we need to cut spending and raise taxes.
And in that situation, IHT really isn't a priority.
For a Tory government facing near certain defeat and desperate to shore up its core vote knowing it would almost certainly never have to implement such a manifesto pledge though.....
Eight runners go to post for the East Ham General Election Handicap for four year olds of all ages. The going remains good but with the odd soft patch.
Stephen Timms sits precariously on his wafer thin 33,000 majority though that will be reduced as we have a smaller constituency. He got 76.3% of the vote in 2019 down from 83.6% in 2017. I suspect he'll end up nearer 2019 than 2017 in vote share.
The Conservative candidate, one Maria Higson, seems to hail from the Hampshire/Berkshire border. The Conservative last time, Scott Pattenden, got 15.8% and I don't know if he's standing somewhere else but he did try for the Weald of Kent seat losing out to Katie Lam.
The Liberal Democrat is Dr Hillary Briffa who sits on the International Security Group for the Party and if it's the same person, is the Assistant Director of the Centre for Defence Studies at King's College.
Dan Oxley is the Reform candidate and I think he was involved in UKIP in the area in times past.
The Green is one Rosie Pearce while Tahir Mirza, former chair of East Ham Labour Party, is standing for the Newham Independents.
We have two other Independents on the ballot - Sathish Mohan Ramadoss who is the CEO of Inside Homes UK and is in the midst of an interesting planning application in Manor Park and Anand Kumar Sundar who runs a company in Plashet Road. Call me a bluff old cynic but for £10k deposit money they get a nice bit of free publicity via the election address.
Just realised Ukraine is to Russia what Ireland has been to England, right down to the Famine
That is the argument I used which managed to stop my Irish father-in-law from repeating all the pro-Russia bollocks he'd picked up off youtube. "Russia has as much right to Kharkiv as England has to Cork," was a bit of a risky gambit from an English son-in-law dependent on his Irish in-laws' hospitality, but it did the job.
One solitary Labour poster in a window round here. Not mine. Nowt else. No leaflets, stalls, canvassers or owt.
Plenty of stalls here in Edinburgh - all selling knock-off Taylor Swift memorabilia. It’s been sequins central for the last couple of days.
I thought I might make it through life without ever really being aware of Taylor Swift, but this weekend has wrecked that.
She is a phenomenon
This article is fascinating on the economics of it
Her shows have also had a well-documented impact on local economies. Mastercard research showed a “Swift lift” in earnings for local businesses, with spending increasing 68 per cent at restaurants within 2.5 miles of the stadium, and 7 per cent for those within ten miles.
The inbound tourism also led to 47 per cent more spending at accommodation within 2.5 miles of the US stadiums, and 32 per cent within ten miles.
It's quite possible that Sinn Fein will lose their last seat in the EU Parliament now. Their support has fallen away massively, as they got on the wrong side of the Irish immigration argument.
One solitary Labour poster in a window round here. Not mine. Nowt else. No leaflets, stalls, canvassers or owt.
Plenty of stalls here in Edinburgh - all selling knock-off Taylor Swift memorabilia. It’s been sequins central for the last couple of days.
I thought I might make it through life without ever really being aware of Taylor Swift, but this weekend has wrecked that.
She is a phenomenon
This article is fascinating on the economics of it
Her shows have also had a well-documented impact on local economies. Mastercard research showed a “Swift lift” in earnings for local businesses, with spending increasing 68 per cent at restaurants within 2.5 miles of the stadium, and 7 per cent for those within ten miles.
The inbound tourism also led to 47 per cent more spending at accommodation within 2.5 miles of the US stadiums, and 32 per cent within ten miles.
There is no mechanism in which Sunak can resign and somebody else take over.
Just think about it, the new leader would be in charge for five minutes and would inevitably lose. Nobody will take up that chalice.
There must be such a mechanism for the eventuality that a leader dies during the campaign.
If the PM dies during a campaign… I guess ask the Privy Council to find someone?
Cabinet are still in post and I suspect HMK would accept their agreed caretaker
The obvious choice is Cameron: he’s in the current Cabinet, he’s experienced at the job, and he isn’t directly involved in the election.
Oh indeed if such an event occured, Pudding face of Chipping Norton is your guy
I'm coming round to the thought that Cameron is possible even though impossible, insofar as he might be acceptable to the ambitious as he would not be a contender for post-election leader of the party because he will not be an MP. So maybe our ever-flexible constitution can be fudged for a couple of weeks. However, I expect in practice Rishi will stay and DPM Dowden take over as acting PM should the need arise.
How does one resign a life peerage at 24 hours notice during an election campaign?
Just realised Ukraine is to Russia what Ireland has been to England, right down to the Famine
This is an obvious set up for Crimea, Donbas ending up as part of Russia a la Northern Ireland. You'll have to be more subtle than that.
Not at all. That would have been the case if those regions hadn't voted to be part of an independent Ukraine in 1991. Northern Ireland did vote to remain part of the UK in the 1920s border poll.
There is no mechanism in which Sunak can resign and somebody else take over.
Just think about it, the new leader would be in charge for five minutes and would inevitably lose. Nobody will take up that chalice.
There must be such a mechanism for the eventuality that a leader dies during the campaign.
If the PM dies during a campaign… I guess ask the Privy Council to find someone?
Cabinet are still in post and I suspect HMK would accept their agreed caretaker
The obvious choice is Cameron: he’s in the current Cabinet, he’s experienced at the job, and he isn’t directly involved in the election.
Oh indeed if such an event occured, Pudding face of Chipping Norton is your guy
I'm coming round to the thought that Cameron is possible even though impossible, insofar as he might be acceptable to the ambitious as he would not be a contender for post-election leader of the party because he will not be an MP. So maybe our ever-flexible constitution can be fudged for a couple of weeks. However, I expect in practice Rishi will stay and DPM Dowden take over as acting PM should the need arise.
Remember Cameron's 'shredded wheat' announcement? At the time people wondered how he would square the circle of serving a full second term but not seeking a third.
That plan would have worked because it's perfectly coherent to remain as PM while the new party leader fights an election campaign to seek their own mandate, but the other way round makes no sense. To parachute in Cameron without a clear idea of what role he would play in the party in the aftermath of the election would just create even more confusion and there's no point in actually making him Prime Minister for a few weeks.
Just realised Ukraine is to Russia what Ireland has been to England, right down to the Famine
This is an obvious set up for Crimea, Donbas ending up as part of Russia a la Northern Ireland. You'll have to be more subtle than that.
Not at all. That would have been the case if those regions hadn't voted to be part of an independent Ukraine in 1991. Northern Ireland did vote to remain part of the UK in the 1920s border poll.
And shortly before Putin went Full Tonto - a CNN poll. Scroll down to see the regional desire to be part of Russia.
Think today might be a good chance to get some value on certain Reform/LD bets before the polls of the next few days start to take D-Day Gate and Farage’s TV appearance into more account in their fieldwork.
Is there a place that publishes a schedule of upcoming polls, e.g. ‘Next Survation coming Tuesday’ etc
Comments
1. Print more money.
2. More mass immigration.
3. More feminism.
4. More gay rights.
Edit; an early bath on six.
There isn't even a hatful of posts about the weather and Grealish being dropped by Southgate these days. It's a couple of first minute screamers over Ukraine or anti-vax and then they're gone.
Isn't he a day late? These guys usually start on Saturday. Vlad should dock his pay.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/2024/06/03/3b5fe/1
53% of US voters support sending weapons and aid to Ukraine CBS found.
https://ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/politics/2024/04/15/majority-of-americans-support-sending-aid-to-ukraine--poll-says
They may still want a negotiated settlement but they do not want Putin to win either
When I taught at the British Council (was not MI6) in Kiev in 2007 my kvartira rent was the equivalent of £24/month. I bought a (stolen from Germany) VW Polo for £80. etc., etc.
I suspect both Con and LD party workers are thin on the ground.
Last I heard he'd quit Labour (possibly over Gaza?) and might have decided to back the Greens...?
That could have been addressed, and there was plenty of time to do so.
This comes under the "Just Not Competent to Run a Bath" part of the CV of the current generation of senior Conservatives.
Agree with your comment - both more resources and more efficiency, which is why taxes need to increase.
https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/offender-management-statistics-quarterly-october-to-december-2023/offender-management-statistics-quarterly-october-to-december-2023-and-annual-2023
It's that kind of innuendo that Sunak has given Farage the pretext for.
A plane crashes on the Ukraine/Republic of China border. Which side do you bury the survivors?
I do like to see the other party politicians at the front. I want to know that a party is more than just its leader (hence Ref UK would never get my vote as it's just a one man vaniety project) so perhaps Sunak standing back and letting others step forward *could* work at stopping the rot.
I'm off to the Red Wall to buy an M5 now. I'll report back on what, if any, levelling up I see.
Tory MPs want something on IHT too, Hunt doesn't it seems despite the average price for a detached house in his new seat being £955,417, so plenty of voters there will be over the £1 million mark in terms of total assets and not even covered fully by the Osborne exemption
https://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/godalming.html#:~:text=Semi-detached properties sold for,2021 peak of £570,724.
(Can use google but trying to sift wheat from chaff and find local reporter).
There's stuff under Towns Fund and so on, but it does not account for more than a fraction of the funds and services withdrawn through 15 years of salami slicing.
There is a perfectly good way to reduce losses on both sides and that's for Russian forces to withdraw unilaterally and unconditionally from all the territory they occupy within the internationally recognised borders of the Ukraine including Donetsk and the Crimea.
I suspect that will substantially reduce casualties on both sides.
Labour probably aren't doing much here either because they've not won a Parliamentary election in these parts for decades (we last had a Labour MP here when Shirley Williams was MP for Hitchin from 1964-1970,) and they've also got an embarrassment of riches falling into their lap. There are only so many resources to spread around your more ambitious targets when you're in with a realistic chance of making 300 gains.
Years ago, drank with some Scandinavian bookies. Ran a spread betting outfit that generated a designed return, based on poor and mismatching odds on sports. Everything they bet was hedged in some way. They were personally banned from all the betting shops. I put some bets on for them - still remember the thrill of being banned for winning too much!
V. Putin is a classic example of someone whose sense of his own worth is dramatically overestimated...
1) Migrants are critical to our economy and public services
2) The population is growing in vast numbers and we can't cope
As usual in real life, both are right. Its a question of balance.
In the long term we need to train and equip a domestic workforce to do most of the things we need, with migrant labour providing specialism and expertise. The problem is that people don't seem to think that investment in training and development is worth their cash, hence the Tories scrapping nurses bursaries (one example of many). Nor do people want to do many of the jobs that migrants are essential for.
If we divert wasted cash from the spivocracy into frontline education, health, social and council service provision, most of the objections go away. We need to do that anyway so lets get on with it. Same with building homes and providing the infrastructure to cope with new homes.
Once we rebalance the equation so that things aren't as broken and stretched as they are, we can have a managed debate on migration which isn't "you would open the doors" from the people who have opened the doors vs "you hate foreigners"
(But then I am eccentric enough to occasionally wear a sun hat, appropriate for wilderness trails, in town. It's very practical when the sun is beating down -- which makes it quite unfashionable.)
The “too posh to wash” myth reminds of Oriental Lassitude.
I tend to agree that it would be a Privy Council - in practice cabinet possibly backed by Starmer, Davey and Flynn - recommendation to the King, with the opposition agreeing the convention of accepting the status quo ante.
(But.. once again.. I only see it happening if Sunak died. In almost any other situation, he'd stay as PM)
He was unlucky enough to be elected for Richmond, unlucky enough to become Chancellor, and terminally unlucky to become Prime Minister by mistake.
There’s no ‘bollocks’ involved. Although maybe a bit of misplaced small-dick energy.
Too many cases of people with plenty of water left over wandering off trail in confusion or losing consciousness. It can also keep creep up on you where you least expect it - a hot day in May but you've still got your crampons on for the ice, for example.
Hey ho. I’m off to “the Montmartre of Kyiv”. Its probably a lot more interesting than the actual Montmartre
The Ukrainian government keeps a tight lid on death stats but an educated guess can be made
See Boris and Brown.
I'll keep compiling for now, midnight the cutoff for new questions. Then I'll edit them down and iron out ambiguities. I won't rigidly stick to one question each, so keep suggesting
How many questions there should be? Nobody will want to answer 50. Is 25 too many?
So far:
Farooq: How many Reform > Con seats?
eek: time of first Tory win (based on the time the words - and XYZ (the Tory candidate) is the winner)
Stuartinromford: First seat to declare a Conservative win.
IanB2: in how many seats will Labour come third (or lower)
SandyRentool: Narrowest winning vote margin in any constituency
SandyRentool: Widest winning vote margin in any constituency
Ghedebrav: Number of party leaders standing who win a seat
TimS: Largest seat majority to be overturned
LostPassword: Number of Conservative lost deposits would be my question.
londonpubman: Number of Lib Dem lost deposits would be my question.
londonpubman: Number of Labour lost deposits would be my question.
londonpubman: Number of Reform lost deposits would be my question.
Verulamius: Number of isolated constituencies
Heathener: Party vote shares
Heathener: Party seats
Heathener: Clacton winner
dixiedean: which constituency will have the largest Con vote share?
dixiedean: which constituency will have the largest Lab vote share?
dixiedean: which constituency will have the largest Lib vote share?
dixiedean: which constituency will have the largest Ref vote share?
dixiedean: which constituency will have the largest Grn vote share?
dixiedean: seats per party in NI
Chameleon: lowest winning percentage, and which seat will it be, and who wins it?
Muesli: party leaders sorry, I'm not going to include longer-term predictions that span through to the end of the year. Feel free to find a different question, but make it something that will be definitively answered within a reasonable time, say 1 week, after the GE. I'm hoping most questions will be answered within 24 hours of the close of polls.
bondegezou: Number of political parties *elected* in the new Parliament (I'm assuming here that if, say three true independents are elected, that will count as ONE, not three) whether or not they take their seats.
TimS: seats taken from third place (I'm going to suggest that this should be from third OR LOWER)
JackW: First to declare and what time.
JackW: Smallest number of votes and which seat.
JackW: Exit poll numbers.
Fairliered: Smallest margin between 1st and 3rd. Smallest margin between 1st and 4th.
" House №15, nicknamed by a Russian poet ‘the Castle of Richard the Lionheart,’ is the most unusual and mysterious one. The apartment house, created in English Neo-Gothic style reminiscent of a medieval castle, is the subject of many legends..."
A number of U.K. politicians read PB. Which makes it a priority target, probably.
Need to be much sharper with your arguments here.
And know the UK very well. (eg, the working classes will revolt against gay rights. We've gone over and over that fallacy).
If anything it's narrowed the Overton Window on here.
Didn’t take too long for Putin’s puppet to push the anti gay rights line
"He was an intruder, sah!"
"He went thru the glass, off the balcony, and down to the street below!"
"In-tru-der window, sah!"
I've seen figures estimating that for every three or four Russian soldiers injured, one is killed. For Ukraine; six to eight injured for every one killed. This is in part because of Russia's poor field medicine, and the way they are fighting the war.
(*) which is generally being backed up
That’s the best reason to shut them down asap, not because they have a hope in hell of changing minds, but their tolerance can be used to suggest they are genuine with accepted views.
Threatening to lower the IHT threshold was a huge gaffe by May in 2017 however
https://www.kingsleynapley.co.uk/our-news/press-releases/yougov-poll-shows-majority-of-public-now-supports-scrapping-iht-and-even-a-majority-of-labour-voters-oppose-raising-the-current-40-iht-rate#poll
And in that situation, IHT really isn't a priority.
It's a fair question
But yes, the number of people being physically maimed for life is huge, on both sides. Some of them soldiers. Some of them citizens, from shells and missiles. Most of these citizens being Ukrainians, but it is now a real risk for those living in Russia near the border.
Yes, Sunak might blow up again - largely through naivete, not malice - but so can Farage and this sort of stuff explains why he so readily turns people off.
Don't go all in on a Tory wipeout just yet.
Keir Starmer took multiple questions from broadcast and print journalists today
Meanwhile Rishi Sunak is in hiding
https://x.com/soph_husk/status/1799799413042549169
On of them is prime ministerial...
The Tories tried the line "Starmer is afraid of Angela Rayner, how will he stand up to Putin"
Well, Richi is afraid of the BBC...
Eight runners go to post for the East Ham General Election Handicap for four year olds of all ages. The going remains good but with the odd soft patch.
Stephen Timms sits precariously on his wafer thin 33,000 majority though that will be reduced as we have a smaller constituency. He got 76.3% of the vote in 2019 down from 83.6% in 2017. I suspect he'll end up nearer 2019 than 2017 in vote share.
The Conservative candidate, one Maria Higson, seems to hail from the Hampshire/Berkshire border. The Conservative last time, Scott Pattenden, got 15.8% and I don't know if he's standing somewhere else but he did try for the Weald of Kent seat losing out to Katie Lam.
The Liberal Democrat is Dr Hillary Briffa who sits on the International Security Group for the Party and if it's the same person, is the Assistant Director of the Centre for Defence Studies at King's College.
Dan Oxley is the Reform candidate and I think he was involved in UKIP in the area in times past.
The Green is one Rosie Pearce while Tahir Mirza, former chair of East Ham Labour Party, is standing for the Newham Independents.
We have two other Independents on the ballot - Sathish Mohan Ramadoss who is the CEO of Inside Homes UK and is in the midst of an interesting planning application in Manor Park and Anand Kumar Sundar who runs a company in Plashet Road. Call me a bluff old cynic but for £10k deposit money they get a nice bit of free publicity via the election address.
She is a phenomenon
This article is fascinating on the economics of it
Her shows have also had a well-documented impact on local economies. Mastercard research showed a “Swift lift” in earnings for local businesses, with spending increasing 68 per cent at restaurants within 2.5 miles of the stadium, and 7 per cent for those within ten miles.
The inbound tourism also led to 47 per cent more spending at accommodation within 2.5 miles of the US stadiums, and 32 per cent within ten miles.
https://www.thetimes.com/uk/arts/article/taylor-swifts-tour-has-made-1bn-but-how-much-will-she-get-h8b5p592h
LAB: 43.5% (+10.6)
CON: 22.5% (-22.2)
RFM: 14.4% (+12.3)
LDM: 9.8% (-2.0)
GRN: 5.9% (+3.2)
SNP: 3.2% (-0.8)
Changes w/ GE2019.
electionmaps.uk/polling
That plan would have worked because it's perfectly coherent to remain as PM while the new party leader fights an election campaign to seek their own mandate, but the other way round makes no sense. To parachute in Cameron without a clear idea of what role he would play in the party in the aftermath of the election would just create even more confusion and there's no point in actually making him Prime Minister for a few weeks.
https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2022/02/europe/russia-ukraine-crisis-poll-intl/index.html?cid=ios_app
Described, memorably, by one of our “realists” as “that shitty poll”
Is there a place that publishes a schedule of upcoming polls, e.g. ‘Next Survation coming Tuesday’ etc