That's very sad. I liked him a lot. Clearly, he was struggling with deep-rooted demons that got the better of him.
Poor guy.
Demons? I'd guess that he started to get heatstroke, hiking in such heat, went to shelter in the cave, but either ran out of or had no water, and got worse rather than better.
Yes, that's possible, but it's deeply odd.
He's no fool. Going out with no phone, no water, an umbrella (wot?), not telling his wife and in area that isn't totally remote in the hottest part of the day.
That's very sad. I liked him a lot. Clearly, he was struggling with deep-rooted demons that got the better of him.
Poor guy.
You’re making assumptions with no facts . The implication from your post is he committed suicide. Why not wait till the facts are known before jumping to conclusions.
Today in Sunakland: Rumours circulate that he has cancelled his media appearances and that he may be about to resign, with the inevitable effect that once everyone has got themselves excited at the prospect of a further huge drama, they'll resent him even more when he fails to go
I'm sorry but how the hell can he resign in the middle of an election campaign? That would take this already bizarre election somewhere beyond farce. I don't think there are even words in the political lexicon to describe that outcome.
The Tories need to eviscerate Farage. It's late, but not too late. He does not represent the future of right wing politics. Come on Sunak, what have you got left to lose, do the right thing.
That's the wrong question.
Mass immigration needs to end or the same thing will happen to both Labour and the Tories as what's happened on the continent.
There isn't a choice where some barbarous singers and gotcha moments wake people up and make it, and him, go away.
On topic: we should have a GE-specific competition where each person who wants to take part gets to contribute a question.
If this appeals, I'll start: In how many seats will the Reform vote exceed the Conservative vote? Judging criteria: 20 points for the correct answer, 19 for 1 out, and so on to a minimum of 0
Questions should be GE-related, so answerable in the hours and days immediately after 10pm on 4th July.
If there's enough interest (say at least ten questions) I'll happy to administer it. Get your questions in today, but don't worry about the answers yet.
First seat to declare a Conservative win.
In 1997 it was Brownhills-Aldridge wasn’t it?
No, it was Solihull, the 65th seat to be declared.
Royal funeral theory: contra the claim that the Tories would refuse a request for an early election because a funeral during the campaign would boost them, the response would be: if you refuse, the fact of your refusal will leak during the campaign. That really would have the potential to reduce them to nul seats.
If anyone has suggested the Crown requested that Rishi called an early election, they are barking.
On topic: we should have a GE-specific competition where each person who wants to take part gets to contribute a question.
If this appeals, I'll start: In how many seats will the Reform vote exceed the Conservative vote? Judging criteria: 20 points for the correct answer, 19 for 1 out, and so on to a minimum of 0
Questions should be GE-related, so answerable in the hours and days immediately after 10pm on 4th July.
If there's enough interest (say at least ten questions) I'll happy to administer it. Get your questions in today, but don't worry about the answers yet.
Another interesting question would be "in how many seats will Labour come third (or lower)?"
Number of Conservative lost deposits would be my question.
Very few. Pretty much every seat has a hardcore of the two big beasts, it's rare for either of them to dip under deposit level even in terrible elections. The consequence of that is on declining voteshare they lose oodles at the upper end. And that makes seat by seat prediction a total nightmare on a big change in VI
That's very sad. I liked him a lot. Clearly, he was struggling with deep-rooted demons that got the better of him.
Poor guy.
Demons? I'd guess that he started to get heatstroke, hiking in such heat, went to shelter in the cave, but either ran out of or had no water, and got worse rather than better.
The local police were working on the assumption he'd got lost and had a fall, which seems possibly correct. ..The body - which has yet to be formally identified - was found at a small cliff on a rocky hill north-east of the village of Pedi, near Agia Marina beach...
It's a small island, but just big enough for it to be hard to find someone if you don't know exactly where to look.
#BBCLauraK asks Nigel Farage what he meant by saying PM doesn’t understand “our” history & culture. NF said PM should have known in heart it was right to be at #DDay80 & emphasised commonwealth contribution in war. Govt’s Mel Stride said he felt uncomfortable about NF’s remarks.
Same thing Leon was doing, calling Sunak a "migrant" and saying he's not absorbed British values.
Lee Anderson this morning went with it being because his grandparents didn't fight for us and the like.
The Tories need to eviscerate Farage. It's late, but not too late. He does not represent the future of right wing politics. Come on Sunak, what have you got left to lose, do the right thing.
That's the wrong question.
Mass immigration needs to end or the same thing will happen to both Labour and the Tories as what's happened on the continent.
There isn't a choice where some barbarous singers and gotcha moments wake people up and make it, and him, go away.
We will have go address the underlying issue.
No, Jonathan is right. Appeasing the far right won't get the Tories anywhere, and neither will trying to be Reform-lite; nor will simply trying to ignore them while the Tory vote haemorrhages away. Sunak needs to remember his pitch when he first got the job, and attack the far right for their opportunism, extremism and for their simplistic, fantasy solutions.
That's very sad. I liked him a lot. Clearly, he was struggling with deep-rooted demons that got the better of him.
Poor guy.
You’re making assumptions with no facts . The implication from your post is he committed suicide. Why not wait till the facts are known before jumping to conclusions.
Today in Sunakland: Rumours circulate that he has cancelled his media appearances and that he may be about to resign, with the inevitable effect that once everyone has got themselves excited at the prospect of a further huge drama, they'll resent him even more when he fails to go
I'm sorry but how the hell can he resign in the middle of an election campaign? That would take this already bizarre election somewhere beyond farce. I don't think there are even words in the political lexicon to describe that outcome.
OK, here's my plan for a Tory revival. The Cabinet meet and choose a successor with a secret ballot. But nobody knows who it is! The election is between Kier Starmer and The Mystery Box. If the Tories fail to secure a majority, the contents of the box will never be revealed.
Don't you want to know who is in the box? I'm feeling curious about the box already and I only just made it up.
The Tories need to eviscerate Farage. It's late, but not too late. He does not represent the future of right wing politics. Come on Sunak, what have you got left to lose, do the right thing.
That's the wrong question.
Mass immigration needs to end or the same thing will happen to both Labour and the Tories as what's happened on the continent.
There isn't a choice where some barbarous singers and gotcha moments wake people up and make it, and him, go away.
We will have go address the underlying issue.
From my perspective there is a very different political philosophy underpinning traditional pragmatic conservatism than new right wing populism.
If conservatives don't stand up and fight, they will go the way of the conservatives across Europe and the US. No one benefits from that.
#BBCLauraK asks Nigel Farage what he meant by saying PM doesn’t understand “our” history & culture. NF said PM should have known in heart it was right to be at #DDay80 & emphasised commonwealth contribution in war. Govt’s Mel Stride said he felt uncomfortable about NF’s remarks.
They'll push it beyond the point of annoyance at Sunak to 'Brown's handwriting' overreach
Today in Sunakland: Rumours circulate that he has cancelled his media appearances and that he may be about to resign, with the inevitable effect that once everyone has got themselves excited at the prospect of a further huge drama, they'll resent him even more when he fails to go
I'm sorry but how the hell can he resign in the middle of an election campaign? That would take this already bizarre election somewhere beyond farce. I don't think there are even words in the political lexicon to describe that outcome.
OK, here's my plan for a Tory revival. The Cabinet meet and choose a successor with a secret ballot. But nobody knows who it is! The election is between Kier Starmer and The Mystery Box. If the Tories fail to secure a majority, the contents of the box will never be revealed.
Don't you want to know who is in the box? I'm feeling curious about the box already and I only just made it up.
That's very sad. I liked him a lot. Clearly, he was struggling with deep-rooted demons that got the better of him.
Poor guy.
You’re making assumptions with no facts . The implication from your post is he committed suicide. Why not wait till the facts are known before jumping to conclusions.
Yes, that is my presumption.
Was he carrying enough water? If not, very risky in such high temperatures.
Today in Sunakland: Rumours circulate that he has cancelled his media appearances and that he may be about to resign, with the inevitable effect that once everyone has got themselves excited at the prospect of a further huge drama, they'll resent him even more when he fails to go
I'm sorry but how the hell can he resign in the middle of an election campaign? That would take this already bizarre election somewhere beyond farce. I don't think there are even words in the political lexicon to describe that outcome.
The obvious conclusion to draw from Rishi cancelling media appearances is that CCHQ has phoned Lynton Crosby who has told them to avoid being asked questions, as with Boris and Theresa May. It is one heck of a leap to infer an imminent resignation and constitutional crisis. Even saying Rishi will step down in July is bad because everyone knows he is going anyway, so it will just throw petrol onto the Tory leadership campaign.
That's very sad. I liked him a lot. Clearly, he was struggling with deep-rooted demons that got the better of him.
Poor guy.
Demons? I'd guess that he started to get heatstroke, hiking in such heat, went to shelter in the cave, but either ran out of or had no water, and got worse rather than better.
The local police were working on the assumption he'd got lost and had a fall, which seems possibly correct. ..The body - which has yet to be formally identified - was found at a small cliff on a rocky hill north-east of the village of Pedi, near Agia Marina beach...
It's a small island, but just big enough for it to be hard to find someone if you don't know exactly where to look.
A really sad story.
Yes, that's possible.
I just find his behaviour odd. Going out without water or a phone. In the peak heat of the day. With an umbrella. And then going missing.
I could be wrong and it could be a tragic accident, of course.
That's very sad. I liked him a lot. Clearly, he was struggling with deep-rooted demons that got the better of him.
Poor guy.
Demons? I'd guess that he started to get heatstroke, hiking in such heat, went to shelter in the cave, but either ran out of or had no water, and got worse rather than better.
Yes, that's possible, but it's deeply odd.
He's no fool. Going out with no phone, no water, an umbrella (wot?), not telling his wife and in area that isn't totally remote in the hottest part of the day.
Something doesn't add up.
As I said above, it's a very small island, so easy to be oblivious to the danger of setting off on a short hike in extreme heat. Looks quite rocky, too.
Today in Sunakland: Rumours circulate that he has cancelled his media appearances and that he may be about to resign, with the inevitable effect that once everyone has got themselves excited at the prospect of a further huge drama, they'll resent him even more when he fails to go
I'm sorry but how the hell can he resign in the middle of an election campaign? That would take this already bizarre election somewhere beyond farce. I don't think there are even words in the political lexicon to describe that outcome.
OK, here's my plan for a Tory revival. The Cabinet meet and choose a successor with a secret ballot. But nobody knows who it is! The election is between Kier Starmer and The Mystery Box. If the Tories fail to secure a majority, the contents of the box will never be revealed.
Don't you want to know who is in the box? I'm feeling curious about the box already and I only just made it up.
That's very sad. I liked him a lot. Clearly, he was struggling with deep-rooted demons that got the better of him.
Poor guy.
You’re making assumptions with no facts . The implication from your post is he committed suicide. Why not wait till the facts are known before jumping to conclusions.
Yes, that is my presumption.
Was he carrying enough water? If not, very risky in such high temperatures.
Yes, and as a doctor he'd know that. I wouldn't step out 50 metres from my hotel without water in Greece.
That's very sad. I liked him a lot. Clearly, he was struggling with deep-rooted demons that got the better of him.
Poor guy.
Demons? I'd guess that he started to get heatstroke, hiking in such heat, went to shelter in the cave, but either ran out of or had no water, and got worse rather than better.
The local police were working on the assumption he'd got lost and had a fall, which seems possibly correct. ..The body - which has yet to be formally identified - was found at a small cliff on a rocky hill north-east of the village of Pedi, near Agia Marina beach...
It's a small island, but just big enough for it to be hard to find someone if you don't know exactly where to look.
A really sad story.
Yes, that's possible.
I just find his behaviour odd. Going out without water or a phone. In the peak heat of the day. With an umbrella. And then going missing.
I could be wrong and it could be a tragic accident, of course.
The umbrella makes perfect sense in hot weather. You can spot an Australian because they are covered up head to toe, and aren't embarrassed by a massive hat. Short sleeves a big no-no when bushwalking.
Today in Sunakland: Rumours circulate that he has cancelled his media appearances and that he may be about to resign, with the inevitable effect that once everyone has got themselves excited at the prospect of a further huge drama, they'll resent him even more when he fails to go
I'm sorry but how the hell can he resign in the middle of an election campaign? That would take this already bizarre election somewhere beyond farce. I don't think there are even words in the political lexicon to describe that outcome.
The obvious conclusion to draw from Rishi cancelling media appearances is that CCHQ has phoned Lynton Crosby who has told them to avoid being asked questions, as with Boris and Theresa May. It is one heck of a leap to infer an imminent resignation and constitutional crisis. Even saying Rishi will step down in July is bad because everyone knows he is going anyway, so it will just throw petrol onto the Tory leadership campaign.
This^ Precisely He's waiting out the manifestos launch Tuesday
Today in Sunakland: Rumours circulate that he has cancelled his media appearances and that he may be about to resign, with the inevitable effect that once everyone has got themselves excited at the prospect of a further huge drama, they'll resent him even more when he fails to go
I'm sorry but how the hell can he resign in the middle of an election campaign? That would take this already bizarre election somewhere beyond farce. I don't think there are even words in the political lexicon to describe that outcome.
The obvious conclusion to draw from Rishi cancelling media appearances is that CCHQ has phoned Lynton Crosby who has told them to avoid being asked questions, as with Boris and Theresa May. It is one heck of a leap to infer an imminent resignation and constitutional crisis. Even saying Rishi will step down in July is bad because everyone knows he is going anyway, so it will just throw petrol onto the Tory leadership campaign.
If he loses his seat the question becomes academic.
The Tories need to eviscerate Farage. It's late, but not too late. He does not represent the future of right wing politics. Come on Sunak, what have you got left to lose, do the right thing.
That's the wrong question.
Mass immigration needs to end or the same thing will happen to both Labour and the Tories as what's happened on the continent.
There isn't a choice where some barbarous singers and gotcha moments wake people up and make it, and him, go away.
We will have go address the underlying issue.
From my perspective there is a very different political philosophy underpinning traditional pragmatic conservatism than new right wing populism.
If conservatives don't stand up and fight, they will go the way of the conservatives across Europe and the US. No one benefits from that.
OK, but that doesn't make the issue of immigration go away.
That's very sad. I liked him a lot. Clearly, he was struggling with deep-rooted demons that got the better of him.
Poor guy.
Demons? I'd guess that he started to get heatstroke, hiking in such heat, went to shelter in the cave, but either ran out of or had no water, and got worse rather than better.
Yes, that's possible, but it's deeply odd.
He's no fool. Going out with no phone, no water, an umbrella (wot?), not telling his wife and in area that isn't totally remote in the hottest part of the day.
Something doesn't add up.
As I said above, it's a very small island, so easy to be oblivious to the danger of setting off on a short hike in extreme heat. Looks quite rocky, too.
The umbrella would be for shade.
Just bad luck seems most likely.
Yes, I've been to Symi, and don't recall the island as feeling that big. But it is hilly and the terrain is unforgiving. Most of the activity is around Symi town, spread very attractively on the hillsides around the picturesque horseshoe harbour, which is where Mosley was staying, and apparently heading.
The Tories need to eviscerate Farage. It's late, but not too late. He does not represent the future of right wing politics. Come on Sunak, what have you got left to lose, do the right thing.
That's the wrong question.
Mass immigration needs to end or the same thing will happen to both Labour and the Tories as what's happened on the continent.
There isn't a choice where some barbarous singers and gotcha moments wake people up and make it, and him, go away.
We will have go address the underlying issue.
From my perspective there is a very different political philosophy underpinning traditional pragmatic conservatism than new right wing populism.
If conservatives don't stand up and fight, they will go the way of the conservatives across Europe and the US. No one benefits from that.
OK, but that doesn't make the issue of immigration go away.
Not at all happy to see Reform going with the 'yeah but he's brown isn't he' shit Fucking grim He's a tit, no more than that is reasonable or proportionate
Parties aside, I think the Tories handled Covid OK. They protected millions of private sector jobs (whilst the public sector was still rightly getting its salaries and pensions - plus overtime). The process for getting the vaccines in place was one which undoubtedly delivered.
The only difference I can recall from Labour was that Starmer would have locked us down for another Christmas.
I think the Government have handled Ukraine very well.
Not that anyone remembers, but the Government handled the resulting rise in energy prices as well as it could afford to do, with large-scale energy bill subsidies.
This government came to power on the basis of investing in areas that had for generations voted Labour, in the expectation that they would finally get to see some cash. Sadly. Covid and Ukraine took all that money and more. The one saving grace is that if Corbyn had won in 2019, he would have already spent all the cash needed to get us through these two crises. God alone knows how we would have managed. In all likelihood, we would have had no money for furlough and be struggling with millions more unemployed.
One area where this Government does not blow its own trumpet is in jobs creation. They have an especially good case on youth unemployment - this is at low levels that prevous Labour governments could only dream about. When Labour says "What have you done for our young?", the answer is "Ensured they have jobs."
Each of these testing situations was a once-in-a-generation challenge. The government handled them as well as could have been expected. More importantly, I don't see a cigarette paper between how the Government responded - and how Labour says it would have handled things. Those desperate for change - you've effectively had a Labour government for the past five years. Prepare to be very disappointed.
It's unfortunate we won't get to see the results of the Covid inquiry until much later, but I think there will be a couple of stern words said about preparedness and the speed of response. It was very, very clear by February that the government needed to do something but Boris delayed for ideological reasons. He downplayed the severity, setting the wrong tone. These failures cost lives and I expect the report will say as much. This cultural blinkeredness continued, of course, through to the Downing Street parties. Further, I also think "eat out to help out" will attract some criticism for pushing up cases and for damaging the health messaging.
The preparedness thing will be a blame spread across many more people, of course.
The purpose here is to detail the potential mistakes, because your assessment of "ok" is probably correct, but you only gave positive examples. It we're going to add narrative to that judgement, we need to talk about the bad as well as the good.
I give them something of a pass on that, not because it was handled well, but because it's unclear anyone else would have done massively better on that. A 'perfect' response might significantly have altered the course of the UK pandemic, but given the infectivity of the virus, a bit better management wouldn't have done so.
The real failures IMO were the huge amounts of money blown on failing to transition quickly from expensive and slow PCR 'track and trace' policy to lateral flow tests; on were clearly corrupt contracts for PPE; and on fraudulent loans and the failure to recover significant amounts.
We'd still be financially stretched, but we might be anywhere between 50 and 100 £bn better off.
It would be worthwhile to know how much PPE is now being produced in the UK.
There was a massive increased in domestic production:
Thanks to the unprecedented domestic production of PPE, for items such gowns and FFP3 facemasks, 70 per cent of the expected demand for PPE will be met by UK manufacturers from December. Businesses have been supporting the national effort by creating hundreds of new jobs and reducing reliance on overseas companies. Before the pandemic, just 1 per cent of PPE was produced in the UK.
There's far, far less risk of corruption if to place a PPE contract you email a factory alongside the M1 than if you hand over hundreds of millions to some politically connected person to source crap from China.
The Tories need to eviscerate Farage. It's late, but not too late. He does not represent the future of right wing politics. Come on Sunak, what have you got left to lose, do the right thing.
That's the wrong question.
Mass immigration needs to end or the same thing will happen to both Labour and the Tories as what's happened on the continent.
There isn't a choice where some barbarous singers and gotcha moments wake people up and make it, and him, go away.
We will have go address the underlying issue.
From my perspective there is a very different political philosophy underpinning traditional pragmatic conservatism than new right wing populism.
If conservatives don't stand up and fight, they will go the way of the conservatives across Europe and the US. No one benefits from that.
OK, but that doesn't make the issue of immigration go away.
You do realise people want it addressed, right?
Of course, but the way to address it is not gimmicks, sloganeering and dog whistles. It will be hard work at lots of levels.
I saw the interview with Farage this morning. Any Tory leader of the last forty years would have taken him apart.
My late Tory father-in-law would be spinning in his grave at the Tory accommodation of the populist right. He was very much into respect, fair play and what matters is what works. That sort of Tory.
For the life of me I can't see why Sunak doesn't start going on the offensive against Farage. He might find that most right wingers prefer conservatism to populism. But you have to be confident.
The Tories will put benefit reforms at the heart of their election campaign on Sunday as Rishi Sunak seeks to turn things around following a difficult week
There are votes to be had from Reform for performative cruelty.
Who now expects them to be in government on July 5th?
Hence the random policies and promises will get more ludicrous and uncosted. All paid for by imaginary efficiency savings once more I expect.
There's always been scope for Welfare reform, but the obvious retort is "why didn't you do something about it in the last Parliament?".
How much more can they squeeze out of the tax avoidance genie . One thing I’m surprised about is that the latest briefings suggest they’re not going to touch IHT .
This was surely the final Hail Mary . Maybe it might still happen . Or maybe Sunak saving his kids hundreds of millions of pounds wasn’t a good look .
And how much more can Labour squeeze out of the tax avoidance genie? Enough for tens of thousand more NHS appointments? Leave it out...
Those appointments aren’t coming out of the tax avoidance cash machine . I’m sure however that it will do some heavy lifting in other areas.
You think "ending non-dom status" is not part of the tax avoidance regime? And you think it is going to be tax positive? Really? You aren't normlly that naive.
The first obvious sign we have a Labour government will be the flight of capital out of the UK. No doubt lefties will cheer on the departure.
Until they don't have the money to fund hospital beds.
I’m dubious of these tax avoidance savings but all parties think about is getting elected so as long as they can look like they’ve got somewhere to get the money from pre-election they’ll worry about the reality after 4th July . As for flight of capital I don’t see it .
On flight of capital.... If Labour has a big majority, you are going to have a mass of new backbench MPs all looking to get noticed. Some of them might have been councillors, but there will be a cohort who have effectively only known student politics. This "Eat the Rich!" cohort are going to be making noise about how the those with wealth need to pay "their fair share". Which is way more than those who have the wealth will want to pay - they are not going to see eye to eye on what is "fair".
And so within a year - and probably much sooner - there will have been a significant departure for those shores who have a better understanding of what is "fair". That money will not be paying stamp duty on new properties here, will not be paying VAT on their latest Bentley or Ferrari or super yacht.
And there will be a black hole that those muppets who thought they would give Labour a try will end up having to fund.
What you say is, as always, very credible. Two issues, though:
1. Stop calling your opponents muppets. Given the state of public services, public finances and government moral failure there are very good reasons to think Labour are, at the very least, the least worst option at present. 2. You are presenting half the story. We are in this state at least partly because the moral limits on eg executive pay, levels of inequality, treatment of the most vulnerable have been broken by a Tory government that is simply looking after it's own. A degree of 'eat the rich' to put it in your crude terms, is probably needed. I trust Starmer to moderate those tendencies to a sensible level. I may be wrong, but I hope not.
Questions. Apologies if they've been done only just awoken. Which constituencies will have the largest share for each Party? Lab, Con, LD, Reform, Green. That's 5 questions. Which constituencies will have the largest and smallest numerical majority? How many seats for each of the Parties in NI?
I've been posting to PB.com since 2004, and I missed the prediction competition.
It's obvious that a prediction competition has to have a deadline for entries, and so some people will always miss out for a variety of reasons.
Yes. And no.
I didn’t realise that only a few of the questions related to the GE.
I think a GE prediction competition should have a cut off that is just before the event. Although you could also have 3 stages with cut-offs to allow amendments and 1/3rd points at each stage. Fairly easy to do and fun: more Spreads than Sportsbook, in other words.
But I very much appreciate @Benpointer doing it at all and anyone else contributing to this site, which they do gratis.
I think what would be useful is to have a second competition running alongside which is specifically GE on a range of results (including Clacton and perhaps that largest overturned majority one which just popped up) with a cut-off shortly before July 4th. Maybe July 1st 6pm or somefink.
That's very sad. I liked him a lot. Clearly, he was struggling with deep-rooted demons that got the better of him.
Poor guy.
Was he? I did wonder about suicide
Insomnia, some short-term memory loss and a keen interest in mental health.
I may be putting two and two together and making five. Or we may find out this was something he'd struggled with for a while in the coming days.
Who knows.
Could it be as simple as him taking what seemed like an easy walk, taking the wrong turn and not realising his mistake until he was hopelessly lost?
Going walking any distance at 1.30pm in Greece when it is 37 degrees is, bluntly, unwise and so obviously unpleasant that it is hard to believe that he didn't have another agenda. Its very sad, he came across as a really nice man. His poor wife.
That's very sad. I liked him a lot. Clearly, he was struggling with deep-rooted demons that got the better of him.
Poor guy.
Was he? I did wonder about suicide
Insomnia, some short-term memory loss and a keen interest in mental health.
I may be putting two and two together and making five. Or we may find out this was something he'd struggled with for a while in the coming days.
Who knows.
I think you’re right about it though: it is very odd and I’ve been saying so to friends for days. Why would you go out in the hottest part of the day without phone and, apparently, water?
Heat exhaustion can lead to mental disturbance, of course, but that still doesn’t explain the lack of even the most basic precautions.
This is defined as a seat which does not have a neighbouring seat of the same party. Island seats do not count.
So currently St Albans is an isolated seat (no neighbouring LibDem seats) but if the Lib Dems win Harpenden and Berkhampsted as well as St Albans then neither seat would be isolated.
That's very sad. I liked him a lot. Clearly, he was struggling with deep-rooted demons that got the better of him.
Poor guy.
Demons? I'd guess that he started to get heatstroke, hiking in such heat, went to shelter in the cave, but either ran out of or had no water, and got worse rather than better.
Yes, that's possible, but it's deeply odd.
He's no fool. Going out with no phone, no water, an umbrella (wot?), not telling his wife and in area that isn't totally remote in the hottest part of the day.
Something doesn't add up.
As I said above, it's a very small island, so easy to be oblivious to the danger of setting off on a short hike in extreme heat. Looks quite rocky, too.
The umbrella would be for shade.
Just bad luck seems most likely.
Yes, I've been to Symi, and don't recall the island as feeling that big. But it is hilly and the terrain is unforgiving. Most of the activity is around Symi town, spread very attractively on the hillsides around the picturesque horseshoe harbour, which is where Mosley was staying, and apparently heading.
It's only about 20 sq miles - and Leon's been on longer hikes in hot weather with only a bottle of wine in tow. (Though Leon did have a phone ?)
It's the sort of thing that at least nine times out of ten, you'd be fine and just think 'maybe that was a bit silly of me'.
That's very sad. I liked him a lot. Clearly, he was struggling with deep-rooted demons that got the better of him.
Poor guy.
Demons? I'd guess that he started to get heatstroke, hiking in such heat, went to shelter in the cave, but either ran out of or had no water, and got worse rather than better.
The local police were working on the assumption he'd got lost and had a fall, which seems possibly correct. ..The body - which has yet to be formally identified - was found at a small cliff on a rocky hill north-east of the village of Pedi, near Agia Marina beach...
It's a small island, but just big enough for it to be hard to find someone if you don't know exactly where to look.
A really sad story.
Yes, that's possible.
I just find his behaviour odd. Going out without water or a phone. In the peak heat of the day. With an umbrella. And then going missing.
I could be wrong and it could be a tragic accident, of course.
The umbrella makes perfect sense in hot weather. You can spot an Australian because they are covered up head to toe, and aren't embarrassed by a massive hat. Short sleeves a big no-no when bushwalking.
I've never seen anyone out walking in Greece, or anywhere else hot, with an umbrella.
The Tories need to eviscerate Farage. It's late, but not too late. He does not represent the future of right wing politics. Come on Sunak, what have you got left to lose, do the right thing.
That's the wrong question.
Mass immigration needs to end or the same thing will happen to both Labour and the Tories as what's happened on the continent.
There isn't a choice where some barbarous singers and gotcha moments wake people up and make it, and him, go away.
We will have go address the underlying issue.
From my perspective there is a very different political philosophy underpinning traditional pragmatic conservatism than new right wing populism.
If conservatives don't stand up and fight, they will go the way of the conservatives across Europe and the US. No one benefits from that.
OK, but that doesn't make the issue of immigration go away.
The brass buttons and blazer combination look to be pure Alan Partridge, from the episode where he's filming an advertising, or corporate training video, by a river and canalboat.
Farooq: How many Reform > Con seats? eek: time of first Tory win (based on the time the words - and XYZ (the Tory candidate) is the winner) Stuartinromford: First seat to declare a Conservative win. IanB2: in how many seats will Labour come third (or lower) SandyRentool: Narrowest winning vote margin in any constituency. Ghedebrav: Number of party leaders standing who win a seat TimS: Largest seat majority to be overturned LostPassword: Number of Conservative lost deposits
I need to go to the supermarket and head over to Fraserburgh for a Wimpy milkshake. If anyone has a question to add to the list please include @Farooq so I'm less likely to miss it. Or if someone wants to periodically gather any new questions together into a list, that would be great too.
Oh didn’t realise that we are going to run another one. Fab! thank you so much. So I’m guessing the obvious ones need to be added don’t they?
- Party vote shares - Party seats - Size of Labour majority (if there is one)
And then:
- Clacton result (this would be a fun one to add to the list?) - Number of Cabinet ministers to lose their seats - Biggest swing in any one seat
That's very sad. I liked him a lot. Clearly, he was struggling with deep-rooted demons that got the better of him.
Poor guy.
Was he? I did wonder about suicide
Insomnia, some short-term memory loss and a keen interest in mental health.
I may be putting two and two together and making five. Or we may find out this was something he'd struggled with for a while in the coming days.
Who knows.
Could it be as simple as him taking what seemed like an easy walk, taking the wrong turn and not realising his mistake until he was hopelessly lost?
Indeed. Pedi to Symi is about a mile and a half, probably taking no more than 30 minutes, and one or other village would be in sight for most of the way. He's already walked nearly half an hour round the headland from the beach.
Casino says "he's no fool", but being intelligent and well informed can easily lead to overconfidence. He probably didn't have any water and was surprised by how quickly the symptoms of heatstroke came on.
He was heading back towards his family's holiday accommodation, not off into the wilds.
That's very sad. I liked him a lot. Clearly, he was struggling with deep-rooted demons that got the better of him.
Poor guy.
Was he? I did wonder about suicide
Insomnia, some short-term memory loss and a keen interest in mental health.
I may be putting two and two together and making five. Or we may find out this was something he'd struggled with for a while in the coming days.
Who knows.
Could it be as simple as him taking what seemed like an easy walk, taking the wrong turn and not realising his mistake until he was hopelessly lost?
Going walking any distance at 1.30pm in Greece when it is 37 degrees is, bluntly, unwise and so obviously unpleasant that it is hard to believe that he didn't have another agenda. Its very sad, he came across as a really nice man. His poor wife.
So he threw himself onto rocks or just decided to die from dehydration. There are plenty of easier and less painful ways of committing suicide . This other agenda business isn’t based on anything but supposition .
My god. I was all bubbly and jovial. And then I got a cab to Maidan square and now I am standing in front of THIS and there are women either side of me weeping. Every flag is a fallen Ukrainian soldier
This is just one part of it. The flags go on and on. Quite close to blubbing myself.
The Tories need to eviscerate Farage. It's late, but not too late. He does not represent the future of right wing politics. Come on Sunak, what have you got left to lose, do the right thing.
That's the wrong question.
Mass immigration needs to end or the same thing will happen to both Labour and the Tories as what's happened on the continent.
There isn't a choice where some barbarous singers and gotcha moments wake people up and make it, and him, go away.
We will have go address the underlying issue.
From my perspective there is a very different political philosophy underpinning traditional pragmatic conservatism than new right wing populism.
If conservatives don't stand up and fight, they will go the way of the conservatives across Europe and the US. No one benefits from that.
OK, but that doesn't make the issue of immigration go away.
You do realise people want it addressed, right?
Of course, but the way to address it is not gimmicks, sloganeering and dog whistles. It will be hard work at lots of levels.
I saw the interview with Farage this morning. Any Tory leader of the last forty years would have taken him apart.
My late Tory father-in-law would be spinning in his grave at the Tory accommodation of the populist right. He was very much into respect, fair play and what matters is what works. That sort of Tory.
For the life of me I can't see why Sunak doesn't start going on the offensive against Farage. He might find that most right wingers prefer conservatism to populism. But you have to be confident.
Questions. Apologies if they've been done only just awoken. Which constituencies will have the largest share for each Party? Lab, Con, LD, Reform, Green. That's 5 questions. Which constituencies will have the largest and smallest numerical majority? How many seats for each of the Parties in NI?
Hmmmmm Lab - Liverpool xxxx LD - crikey. Umm Kingston etc Reform - Rotherham Green - Bristol Central Con - Orpington or Penfold Central (Rayleigh)
Biggest majority- Liverpool somewhere Smallest - no way to even guess but F and ST in NI is usually a bum nipper NI seats - SF 7, DUP 6, Alliance 2, UUP 2, SDLP 1
#BBCLauraK asks Nigel Farage what he meant by saying PM doesn’t understand “our” history & culture. NF said PM should have known in heart it was right to be at #DDay80 & emphasised commonwealth contribution in war. Govt’s Mel Stride said he felt uncomfortable about NF’s remarks.
Same thing Leon was doing, calling Sunak a "migrant" and saying he's not absorbed British values.
Lee Anderson this morning went with it being because his grandparents didn't fight for us and the like.
We had this discussion the other day. There are several PBers, myself included, who aren't aware of any family members having been in WW2.
That's very sad. I liked him a lot. Clearly, he was struggling with deep-rooted demons that got the better of him.
Poor guy.
Demons? I'd guess that he started to get heatstroke, hiking in such heat, went to shelter in the cave, but either ran out of or had no water, and got worse rather than better.
The local police were working on the assumption he'd got lost and had a fall, which seems possibly correct. ..The body - which has yet to be formally identified - was found at a small cliff on a rocky hill north-east of the village of Pedi, near Agia Marina beach...
It's a small island, but just big enough for it to be hard to find someone if you don't know exactly where to look.
A really sad story.
Yes, that's possible.
I just find his behaviour odd. Going out without water or a phone. In the peak heat of the day. With an umbrella. And then going missing.
I could be wrong and it could be a tragic accident, of course.
The umbrella makes perfect sense in hot weather. You can spot an Australian because they are covered up head to toe, and aren't embarrassed by a massive hat. Short sleeves a big no-no when bushwalking.
I've never seen anyone out walking in Greece, or anywhere else hot, with an umbrella.
That'd be considered eccentricially English.
Though parasol is French, isn't it ? And that derived from the earlier Italian.
Royal funeral theory: contra the claim that the Tories would refuse a request for an early election because a funeral during the campaign would boost them, the response would be: if you refuse, the fact of your refusal will leak during the campaign. That really would have the potential to reduce them to nul seats.
The Statty Fyoonz Double Bill theory does fit all of the available facts and handsomely explains the little dickhead's otherwise mystifying self-selected immolation on July 4.
It's far more like to be cock-up rather than conspiracy.
Cock up not conspiracy and incompetence not malice are things which sound clever to say but which give carte blanche to conspirators and the malicious. The deliberate theft of billions from the country over PPE for example; ho ho, those bumbling incompetent Tories.
Sunak should go after Farage and accuse him of being a Putin supporter and also tell him where to go with his racism . I have zero time for Sunak but Farage really is absolutely loathsome .
Questions. Apologies if they've been done only just awoken. Which constituencies will have the largest share for each Party? Lab, Con, LD, Reform, Green. That's 5 questions. Which constituencies will have the largest and smallest numerical majority? How many seats for each of the Parties in NI?
That's very sad. I liked him a lot. Clearly, he was struggling with deep-rooted demons that got the better of him.
Poor guy.
Was he? I did wonder about suicide
Insomnia, some short-term memory loss and a keen interest in mental health.
I may be putting two and two together and making five. Or we may find out this was something he'd struggled with for a while in the coming days.
Who knows.
Could it be as simple as him taking what seemed like an easy walk, taking the wrong turn and not realising his mistake until he was hopelessly lost?
Going walking any distance at 1.30pm in Greece when it is 37 degrees is, bluntly, unwise and so obviously unpleasant that it is hard to believe that he didn't have another agenda. Its very sad, he came across as a really nice man. His poor wife.
So he threw himself onto rocks or just decided to die from dehydration. There are plenty of easier and less painful ways of committing suicide . This other agenda business isn’t based on anything but supposition .
Yes quite. The one thing doctors excel at is painless suicide. Why on earth do it like this?
The Tories will put benefit reforms at the heart of their election campaign on Sunday as Rishi Sunak seeks to turn things around following a difficult week
There are votes to be had from Reform for performative cruelty.
Who now expects them to be in government on July 5th?
Hence the random policies and promises will get more ludicrous and uncosted. All paid for by imaginary efficiency savings once more I expect.
There's always been scope for Welfare reform, but the obvious retort is "why didn't you do something about it in the last Parliament?".
How much more can they squeeze out of the tax avoidance genie . One thing I’m surprised about is that the latest briefings suggest they’re not going to touch IHT .
This was surely the final Hail Mary . Maybe it might still happen . Or maybe Sunak saving his kids hundreds of millions of pounds wasn’t a good look .
And how much more can Labour squeeze out of the tax avoidance genie? Enough for tens of thousand more NHS appointments? Leave it out...
Those appointments aren’t coming out of the tax avoidance cash machine . I’m sure however that it will do some heavy lifting in other areas.
You think "ending non-dom status" is not part of the tax avoidance regime? And you think it is going to be tax positive? Really? You aren't normlly that naive.
The first obvious sign we have a Labour government will be the flight of capital out of the UK. No doubt lefties will cheer on the departure.
Until they don't have the money to fund hospital beds.
I’m dubious of these tax avoidance savings but all parties think about is getting elected so as long as they can look like they’ve got somewhere to get the money from pre-election they’ll worry about the reality after 4th July . As for flight of capital I don’t see it .
On flight of capital.... If Labour has a big majority, you are going to have a mass of new backbench MPs all looking to get noticed. Some of them might have been councillors, but there will be a cohort who have effectively only known student politics. This "Eat the Rich!" cohort are going to be making noise about how the those with wealth need to pay "their fair share". Which is way more than those who have the wealth will want to pay - they are not going to see eye to eye on what is "fair".
And so within a year - and probably much sooner - there will have been a significant departure for those shores who have a better understanding of what is "fair". That money will not be paying stamp duty on new properties here, will not be paying VAT on their latest Bentley or Ferrari or super yacht.
And there will be a black hole that those muppets who thought they would give Labour a try will end up having to fund.
What you say is, as always, very credible. Two issues, though:
1. Stop calling your opponents muppets. Given the state of public services, public finances and government moral failure there are very good reasons to think Labour are, at the very least, the least worst option at present. 2. You are presenting half the story. We are in this state at least partly because the moral limits on eg executive pay, levels of inequality, treatment of the most vulnerable have been broken by a Tory government that is simply looking after it's own. A degree of 'eat the rich' to put it in your crude terms, is probably needed. I trust Starmer to moderate those tendencies to a sensible level. I may be wrong, but I hope not.
What most people of most political persuasions want is public services that care for those in need in our society that (a) work and (b) are sustainable, by which I mean that they are fully funded by our tax base.
People who think that they can ignore the sustainability aspect are indeed muppets and that includes not just those of the left but also the likes of Truss/Kwarteng on the right. Neither can give more than a short term fix at long term cost.
If we want public services that meet (a) we need to grow our tax base. As a generality achieving that by increasing taxes on our existing production disincentivises investment, economic activity and future tax flows.
What we should be discussing as a nation is what are the parameters of this, can we increase taxes to meet current needs without damaging future growth? The current government has significantly increased taxes already to fund its spending and the result of that and far too little investment has been low growth. But discussing such issues would be grown up politics and our media, politicians and electorate seem to have very little interest or enthusiasm for that.
Sunak should go after Farage and accuse him of being a Putin supporter and also tell him where to go with racism . I have zero time for Sunak but Farage really is absolutely loathsome .
Without wanting to excuse him for being a twat Thursday, the dog whistle 'he's not like us' horse shit is his way to begin exiting the mess and going onto the front foot (or at least trying to)
Today in Sunakland: Rumours circulate that he has cancelled his media appearances and that he may be about to resign, with the inevitable effect that once everyone has got themselves excited at the prospect of a further huge drama, they'll resent him even more when he fails to go
so the tories are campaigning against 'Sick Note culture' (sic) and Sunak is going to throw in the towel after some minor setbacks?
Royal funeral theory: contra the claim that the Tories would refuse a request for an early election because a funeral during the campaign would boost them, the response would be: if you refuse, the fact of your refusal will leak during the campaign. That really would have the potential to reduce them to nul seats.
The Statty Fyoonz Double Bill theory does fit all of the available facts and handsomely explains the little dickhead's otherwise mystifying self-selected immolation on July 4.
It really doesn't.
The simple theory that fits all the available facts and handsomely explains Sunak's behaviour is that he's shit at his job, given up all hope of winning, and went into the campaign demob happy.
Today in Sunakland: Rumours circulate that he has cancelled his media appearances and that he may be about to resign, with the inevitable effect that once everyone has got themselves excited at the prospect of a further huge drama, they'll resent him even more when he fails to go
so the tories are campaigning against 'Sick Note culture' (sic) and Sunak is going to throw in the towel after some minor setbacks?
Classic 'when did you stop beating your wife' from the media Ask about something that doesn't exist to try and manifest something
That's very sad. I liked him a lot. Clearly, he was struggling with deep-rooted demons that got the better of him.
Poor guy.
Demons? I'd guess that he started to get heatstroke, hiking in such heat, went to shelter in the cave, but either ran out of or had no water, and got worse rather than better.
The local police were working on the assumption he'd got lost and had a fall, which seems possibly correct. ..The body - which has yet to be formally identified - was found at a small cliff on a rocky hill north-east of the village of Pedi, near Agia Marina beach...
It's a small island, but just big enough for it to be hard to find someone if you don't know exactly where to look.
A really sad story.
Yes, that's possible.
I just find his behaviour odd. Going out without water or a phone. In the peak heat of the day. With an umbrella. And then going missing.
I could be wrong and it could be a tragic accident, of course.
The umbrella makes perfect sense in hot weather. You can spot an Australian because they are covered up head to toe, and aren't embarrassed by a massive hat. Short sleeves a big no-no when bushwalking.
I've never seen anyone out walking in Greece, or anywhere else hot, with an umbrella.
That'd be considered eccentrically English.
Or Indian (many people there walk around with umbrellas in the heat).
Work and Pensions Sec. Mel Stride tells Sunday with @lewis_goodall on @LBC Rishi Sunak is 'deeply patriotic', insisting the PM will 'absolutely' lead the Conservative Party into the general election amid D-Day row
The Tories will put benefit reforms at the heart of their election campaign on Sunday as Rishi Sunak seeks to turn things around following a difficult week
There are votes to be had from Reform for performative cruelty.
Who now expects them to be in government on July 5th?
Hence the random policies and promises will get more ludicrous and uncosted. All paid for by imaginary efficiency savings once more I expect.
There's always been scope for Welfare reform, but the obvious retort is "why didn't you do something about it in the last Parliament?".
How much more can they squeeze out of the tax avoidance genie . One thing I’m surprised about is that the latest briefings suggest they’re not going to touch IHT .
This was surely the final Hail Mary . Maybe it might still happen . Or maybe Sunak saving his kids hundreds of millions of pounds wasn’t a good look .
And how much more can Labour squeeze out of the tax avoidance genie? Enough for tens of thousand more NHS appointments? Leave it out...
Those appointments aren’t coming out of the tax avoidance cash machine . I’m sure however that it will do some heavy lifting in other areas.
You think "ending non-dom status" is not part of the tax avoidance regime? And you think it is going to be tax positive? Really? You aren't normlly that naive.
The first obvious sign we have a Labour government will be the flight of capital out of the UK. No doubt lefties will cheer on the departure.
Until they don't have the money to fund hospital beds.
I’m dubious of these tax avoidance savings but all parties think about is getting elected so as long as they can look like they’ve got somewhere to get the money from pre-election they’ll worry about the reality after 4th July . As for flight of capital I don’t see it .
On flight of capital.... If Labour has a big majority, you are going to have a mass of new backbench MPs all looking to get noticed. Some of them might have been councillors, but there will be a cohort who have effectively only known student politics. This "Eat the Rich!" cohort are going to be making noise about how the those with wealth need to pay "their fair share". Which is way more than those who have the wealth will want to pay - they are not going to see eye to eye on what is "fair".
And so within a year - and probably much sooner - there will have been a significant departure for those shores who have a better understanding of what is "fair". That money will not be paying stamp duty on new properties here, will not be paying VAT on their latest Bentley or Ferrari or super yacht.
And there will be a black hole that those muppets who thought they would give Labour a try will end up having to fund.
What you say is, as always, very credible. Two issues, though:
1. Stop calling your opponents muppets. Given the state of public services, public finances and government moral failure there are very good reasons to think Labour are, at the very least, the least worst option at present. 2. You are presenting half the story. We are in this state at least partly because the moral limits on eg executive pay, levels of inequality, treatment of the most vulnerable have been broken by a Tory government that is simply looking after it's own. A degree of 'eat the rich' to put it in your crude terms, is probably needed. I trust Starmer to moderate those tendencies to a sensible level. I may be wrong, but I hope not.
What most people of most political persuasions want is public services that care for those in need in our society that (a) work and (b) are sustainable, by which I mean that they are fully funded by our tax base.
People who think that they can ignore the sustainability aspect are indeed muppets and that includes not just those of the left but also the likes of Truss/Kwarteng on the right. Neither can give more than a short term fix at long term cost.
If we want public services that meet (a) we need to grow our tax base. As a generality achieving that by increasing taxes on our existing production disincentivises investment, economic activity and future tax flows.
What we should be discussing as a nation is what are the parameters of this, can we increase taxes to meet current needs without damaging future growth? The current government has significantly increased taxes already to fund its spending and the result of that and far too little investment has been low growth. But discussing such issues would be grown up politics and our media, politicians and electorate seem to have very little interest or enthusiasm for that.
100% agree. But that isn't the people Mark called muppets. Anyone who wants to give Labour a try are sensible, in my view.
And what do you do as a political leader, having watched Labour be rejected by the electorate in its many different guises over the past few years, if you know that what you've written above is true but you also know you can't really talk about it?
I'm as sceptical as the next person of the 'growth will solve everything' line from Reeves, but if it signals a 'we'll tax sensibly to fund investment' then I'm about as happy as I'm likely to get with the current choices available to us.
That's very sad. I liked him a lot. Clearly, he was struggling with deep-rooted demons that got the better of him.
Poor guy.
Demons? I'd guess that he started to get heatstroke, hiking in such heat, went to shelter in the cave, but either ran out of or had no water, and got worse rather than better.
The local police were working on the assumption he'd got lost and had a fall, which seems possibly correct. ..The body - which has yet to be formally identified - was found at a small cliff on a rocky hill north-east of the village of Pedi, near Agia Marina beach...
It's a small island, but just big enough for it to be hard to find someone if you don't know exactly where to look.
A really sad story.
Yes, that's possible.
I just find his behaviour odd. Going out without water or a phone. In the peak heat of the day. With an umbrella. And then going missing.
I could be wrong and it could be a tragic accident, of course.
The umbrella makes perfect sense in hot weather. You can spot an Australian because they are covered up head to toe, and aren't embarrassed by a massive hat. Short sleeves a big no-no when bushwalking.
I've never seen anyone out walking in Greece, or anywhere else hot, with an umbrella.
That'd be considered eccentricially English.
Surprisingly common out here, especially among Filipinas and Japanese ladies.
The Tories will put benefit reforms at the heart of their election campaign on Sunday as Rishi Sunak seeks to turn things around following a difficult week
There are votes to be had from Reform for performative cruelty.
Who now expects them to be in government on July 5th?
Hence the random policies and promises will get more ludicrous and uncosted. All paid for by imaginary efficiency savings once more I expect.
There's always been scope for Welfare reform, but the obvious retort is "why didn't you do something about it in the last Parliament?".
How much more can they squeeze out of the tax avoidance genie . One thing I’m surprised about is that the latest briefings suggest they’re not going to touch IHT .
This was surely the final Hail Mary . Maybe it might still happen . Or maybe Sunak saving his kids hundreds of millions of pounds wasn’t a good look .
And how much more can Labour squeeze out of the tax avoidance genie? Enough for tens of thousand more NHS appointments? Leave it out...
Those appointments aren’t coming out of the tax avoidance cash machine . I’m sure however that it will do some heavy lifting in other areas.
You think "ending non-dom status" is not part of the tax avoidance regime? And you think it is going to be tax positive? Really? You aren't normlly that naive.
The first obvious sign we have a Labour government will be the flight of capital out of the UK. No doubt lefties will cheer on the departure.
Until they don't have the money to fund hospital beds.
I’m dubious of these tax avoidance savings but all parties think about is getting elected so as long as they can look like they’ve got somewhere to get the money from pre-election they’ll worry about the reality after 4th July . As for flight of capital I don’t see it .
On flight of capital.... If Labour has a big majority, you are going to have a mass of new backbench MPs all looking to get noticed. Some of them might have been councillors, but there will be a cohort who have effectively only known student politics. This "Eat the Rich!" cohort are going to be making noise about how the those with wealth need to pay "their fair share". Which is way more than those who have the wealth will want to pay - they are not going to see eye to eye on what is "fair".
And so within a year - and probably much sooner - there will have been a significant departure for those shores who have a better understanding of what is "fair". That money will not be paying stamp duty on new properties here, will not be paying VAT on their latest Bentley or Ferrari or super yacht.
And there will be a black hole that those muppets who thought they would give Labour a try will end up having to fund.
It depends what you mean by wealth taxes as only some wealth can be taken out of the country, other wealth can't.
If you mean taxing stocks and shares etc, then absolutely that's a bloody stupid idea and that will result in capital flight.
If you mean taxing land ownership and saying those who own a portion of this countries land need to pay a portion of this countries running costs (whether they be British or live abroad), then that's entirely possible and can't result in capital flight.
Sunak should go after Farage and accuse him of being a Putin supporter and also tell him where to go with racism . I have zero time for Sunak but Farage really is absolutely loathsome .
Without wanting to excuse him for being a twat Thursday, the dog whistle 'he's not like us' horse shit is his way to begin exiting the mess and going onto the front foot (or at least trying to)
But you said yesterday that you’re planning to vote Reform. They’re only not one big dog whistle when they’re a foghorn instead.
My god. I was all bubbly and jovial. And then I got a cab to Maidan square and now I am standing in front of THIS and there are women either side of me weeping. Every flag is a fallen Ukrainian soldier
This is just one part of it. The flags go on and on. Quite close to blubbing myself.
We cannot let them lose!
Slava ukraini
What a journey, from someone who started out as Putin's little cheerleader.
Parties aside, I think the Tories handled Covid OK. They protected millions of private sector jobs (whilst the public sector was still rightly getting its salaries and pensions - plus overtime). The process for getting the vaccines in place was one which undoubtedly delivered.
The only difference I can recall from Labour was that Starmer would have locked us down for another Christmas.
I think the Government have handled Ukraine very well.
Not that anyone remembers, but the Government handled the resulting rise in energy prices as well as it could afford to do, with large-scale energy bill subsidies.
This government came to power on the basis of investing in areas that had for generations voted Labour, in the expectation that they would finally get to see some cash. Sadly. Covid and Ukraine took all that money and more. The one saving grace is that if Corbyn had won in 2019, he would have already spent all the cash needed to get us through these two crises. God alone knows how we would have managed. In all likelihood, we would have had no money for furlough and be struggling with millions more unemployed.
One area where this Government does not blow its own trumpet is in jobs creation. They have an especially good case on youth unemployment - this is at low levels that prevous Labour governments could only dream about. When Labour says "What have you done for our young?", the answer is "Ensured they have jobs."
Each of these testing situations was a once-in-a-generation challenge. The government handled them as well as could have been expected. More importantly, I don't see a cigarette paper between how the Government responded - and how Labour says it would have handled things. Those desperate for change - you've effectively had a Labour government for the past five years. Prepare to be very disappointed.
It's unfortunate we won't get to see the results of the Covid inquiry until much later, but I think there will be a couple of stern words said about preparedness and the speed of response. It was very, very clear by February that the government needed to do something but Boris delayed for ideological reasons. He downplayed the severity, setting the wrong tone. These failures cost lives and I expect the report will say as much. This cultural blinkeredness continued, of course, through to the Downing Street parties. Further, I also think "eat out to help out" will attract some criticism for pushing up cases and for damaging the health messaging.
The preparedness thing will be a blame spread across many more people, of course.
The purpose here is to detail the potential mistakes, because your assessment of "ok" is probably correct, but you only gave positive examples. It we're going to add narrative to that judgement, we need to talk about the bad as well as the good.
I give them something of a pass on that, not because it was handled well, but because it's unclear anyone else would have done massively better on that. A 'perfect' response might significantly have altered the course of the UK pandemic, but given the infectivity of the virus, a bit better management wouldn't have done so.
The real failures IMO were the huge amounts of money blown on failing to transition quickly from expensive and slow PCR 'track and trace' policy to lateral flow tests; on were clearly corrupt contracts for PPE; and on fraudulent loans and the failure to recover significant amounts.
We'd still be financially stretched, but we might be anywhere between 50 and 100 £bn better off.
“Clearly corrupt”? Citation needed. A massive slur on thousands of hard working civil servants who did their best to implement an imperfect solution at speed, and a very naive view on how much influence politicians can have over that much procurement.
@Luckyguy1983 , is this what you've been going on about?
Yes. Though the benefit to the banking industry of doing what the BOE is doing is an angle explored in this piece which I'm not really familiar with. The cynical suggestion would be that the decision makers here are 'at it', and that in time the banking industry will reward them in some way for their policy decisions.
The real scandal here is that politicians have been complicit in this, including (if his deafening silence is anything to go by) SKS.
The Tories will put benefit reforms at the heart of their election campaign on Sunday as Rishi Sunak seeks to turn things around following a difficult week
There are votes to be had from Reform for performative cruelty.
Who now expects them to be in government on July 5th?
Hence the random policies and promises will get more ludicrous and uncosted. All paid for by imaginary efficiency savings once more I expect.
There's always been scope for Welfare reform, but the obvious retort is "why didn't you do something about it in the last Parliament?".
How much more can they squeeze out of the tax avoidance genie . One thing I’m surprised about is that the latest briefings suggest they’re not going to touch IHT .
This was surely the final Hail Mary . Maybe it might still happen . Or maybe Sunak saving his kids hundreds of millions of pounds wasn’t a good look .
And how much more can Labour squeeze out of the tax avoidance genie? Enough for tens of thousand more NHS appointments? Leave it out...
Those appointments aren’t coming out of the tax avoidance cash machine . I’m sure however that it will do some heavy lifting in other areas.
You think "ending non-dom status" is not part of the tax avoidance regime? And you think it is going to be tax positive? Really? You aren't normlly that naive.
The first obvious sign we have a Labour government will be the flight of capital out of the UK. No doubt lefties will cheer on the departure.
Until they don't have the money to fund hospital beds.
I’m dubious of these tax avoidance savings but all parties think about is getting elected so as long as they can look like they’ve got somewhere to get the money from pre-election they’ll worry about the reality after 4th July . As for flight of capital I don’t see it .
On flight of capital.... If Labour has a big majority, you are going to have a mass of new backbench MPs all looking to get noticed. Some of them might have been councillors, but there will be a cohort who have effectively only known student politics. This "Eat the Rich!" cohort are going to be making noise about how the those with wealth need to pay "their fair share". Which is way more than those who have the wealth will want to pay - they are not going to see eye to eye on what is "fair".
And so within a year - and probably much sooner - there will have been a significant departure for those shores who have a better understanding of what is "fair". That money will not be paying stamp duty on new properties here, will not be paying VAT on their latest Bentley or Ferrari or super yacht.
And there will be a black hole that those muppets who thought they would give Labour a try will end up having to fund.
What you say is, as always, very credible. Two issues, though:
1. Stop calling your opponents muppets. Given the state of public services, public finances and government moral failure there are very good reasons to think Labour are, at the very least, the least worst option at present. 2. You are presenting half the story. We are in this state at least partly because the moral limits on eg executive pay, levels of inequality, treatment of the most vulnerable have been broken by a Tory government that is simply looking after it's own. A degree of 'eat the rich' to put it in your crude terms, is probably needed. I trust Starmer to moderate those tendencies to a sensible level. I may be wrong, but I hope not.
What most people of most political persuasions want is public services that care for those in need in our society that (a) work and (b) are sustainable, by which I mean that they are fully funded by our tax base.
People who think that they can ignore the sustainability aspect are indeed muppets and that includes not just those of the left but also the likes of Truss/Kwarteng on the right. Neither can give more than a short term fix at long term cost.
If we want public services that meet (a) we need to grow our tax base. As a generality achieving that by increasing taxes on our existing production disincentivises investment, economic activity and future tax flows.
What we should be discussing as a nation is what are the parameters of this, can we increase taxes to meet current needs without damaging future growth? The current government has significantly increased taxes already to fund its spending and the result of that and far too little investment has been low growth. But discussing such issues would be grown up politics and our media, politicians and electorate seem to have very little interest or enthusiasm for that.
100% agree. But that isn't the people Mark called muppets. Anyone who wants to give Labour a try are sensible, in my view.
And what do you do as a political leader, having watched Labour be rejected by the electorate in its many different guises over the past few years, if you know that what you've written above is true but you also know you can't really talk about it?
I'm as sceptical as the next person of the 'growth will solve everything' line from Reeves, but if it signals a 'we'll tax sensibly to fund investment' then I'm about as happy as I'm likely to get with the current choices available to us.
The people have decided, we are going to give Labour a go and that is fair enough. I genuinely wish Reeves and Starmer every success. This is our country and it is in all our interests that they succeed.
But I suspect that most of the moaning after the first few months of euphoria will come from the left of the Labour party and people who seem to have convinced themselves that this government is not spending enough because they are nasty Tories rather than because the spending reflects (sort of) our current resources.
Sunak should go after Farage and accuse him of being a Putin supporter and also tell him where to go with racism . I have zero time for Sunak but Farage really is absolutely loathsome .
Without wanting to excuse him for being a twat Thursday, the dog whistle 'he's not like us' horse shit is his way to begin exiting the mess and going onto the front foot (or at least trying to)
But you said yesterday that you’re planning to vote Reform. They’re only not one big dog whistle when they’re a foghorn instead.
I did indeed. I'll have to reconsider that. Party of Women looking good for a vote as last woman standing.
Farage has managed to get Shabhana Mahmood defending the PM
Edit - I mean I loathe the damn lot of them but I really don't do not voting. If I'd had 500 quid spare I'd honestly have stood myself (not bothering to campaign)
On topic: we should have a GE-specific competition where each person who wants to take part gets to contribute a question.
If this appeals, I'll start: In how many seats will the Reform vote exceed the Conservative vote? Judging criteria: 20 points for the correct answer, 19 for 1 out, and so on to a minimum of 0
Questions should be GE-related, so answerable in the hours and days immediately after 10pm on 4th July.
If there's enough interest (say at least ten questions) I'll happy to administer it. Get your questions in today, but don't worry about the answers yet.
First seat to declare a Conservative win.
Largest swing in an individual seat would be interesting but I think the boundary changes make it too complicated.
How about:
Number of party leaders standing who win a seat? Bonus points for picking who, as well.
That's very sad. I liked him a lot. Clearly, he was struggling with deep-rooted demons that got the better of him.
Poor guy.
Demons? I'd guess that he started to get heatstroke, hiking in such heat, went to shelter in the cave, but either ran out of or had no water, and got worse rather than better.
The local police were working on the assumption he'd got lost and had a fall, which seems possibly correct. ..The body - which has yet to be formally identified - was found at a small cliff on a rocky hill north-east of the village of Pedi, near Agia Marina beach...
It's a small island, but just big enough for it to be hard to find someone if you don't know exactly where to look.
A really sad story.
Yes, that's possible.
I just find his behaviour odd. Going out without water or a phone. In the peak heat of the day. With an umbrella. And then going missing.
I could be wrong and it could be a tragic accident, of course.
The umbrella makes perfect sense in hot weather. You can spot an Australian because they are covered up head to toe, and aren't embarrassed by a massive hat. Short sleeves a big no-no when bushwalking.
I've never seen anyone out walking in Greece, or anywhere else hot, with an umbrella.
That'd be considered eccentricially English.
Surprisingly common out here, especially among Filipinas and Japanese ladies.
Mad dogs and Englishmen go out in the midday sun! @R.Kipling.
The Tories will put benefit reforms at the heart of their election campaign on Sunday as Rishi Sunak seeks to turn things around following a difficult week
There are votes to be had from Reform for performative cruelty.
Who now expects them to be in government on July 5th?
Hence the random policies and promises will get more ludicrous and uncosted. All paid for by imaginary efficiency savings once more I expect.
There's always been scope for Welfare reform, but the obvious retort is "why didn't you do something about it in the last Parliament?".
How much more can they squeeze out of the tax avoidance genie . One thing I’m surprised about is that the latest briefings suggest they’re not going to touch IHT .
This was surely the final Hail Mary . Maybe it might still happen . Or maybe Sunak saving his kids hundreds of millions of pounds wasn’t a good look .
And how much more can Labour squeeze out of the tax avoidance genie? Enough for tens of thousand more NHS appointments? Leave it out...
Those appointments aren’t coming out of the tax avoidance cash machine . I’m sure however that it will do some heavy lifting in other areas.
You think "ending non-dom status" is not part of the tax avoidance regime? And you think it is going to be tax positive? Really? You aren't normlly that naive.
The first obvious sign we have a Labour government will be the flight of capital out of the UK. No doubt lefties will cheer on the departure.
Until they don't have the money to fund hospital beds.
I’m dubious of these tax avoidance savings but all parties think about is getting elected so as long as they can look like they’ve got somewhere to get the money from pre-election they’ll worry about the reality after 4th July . As for flight of capital I don’t see it .
On flight of capital.... If Labour has a big majority, you are going to have a mass of new backbench MPs all looking to get noticed. Some of them might have been councillors, but there will be a cohort who have effectively only known student politics. This "Eat the Rich!" cohort are going to be making noise about how the those with wealth need to pay "their fair share". Which is way more than those who have the wealth will want to pay - they are not going to see eye to eye on what is "fair".
And so within a year - and probably much sooner - there will have been a significant departure for those shores who have a better understanding of what is "fair". That money will not be paying stamp duty on new properties here, will not be paying VAT on their latest Bentley or Ferrari or super yacht.
And there will be a black hole that those muppets who thought they would give Labour a try will end up having to fund.
It depends what you mean by wealth taxes as only some wealth can be taken out of the country, other wealth can't.
If you mean taxing stocks and shares etc, then absolutely that's a bloody stupid idea and that will result in capital flight.
If you mean taxing land ownership and saying those who own a portion of this countries land need to pay a portion of this countries running costs (whether they be British or live abroad), then that's entirely possible and can't result in capital flight.
It may, however, result in selling their British safe haven abode - yes I can't see any downside there either as an empty house / flat went on to the long term rental / sales market.
Sunak should go after Farage and accuse him of being a Putin supporter and also tell him where to go with racism . I have zero time for Sunak but Farage really is absolutely loathsome .
Without wanting to excuse him for being a twat Thursday, the dog whistle 'he's not like us' horse shit is his way to begin exiting the mess and going onto the front foot (or at least trying to)
But you said yesterday that you’re planning to vote Reform. They’re only not one big dog whistle when they’re a foghorn instead.
I did indeed. I'll have to reconsider that. Party of Women looking good for a vote as last woman standing.
Farage has managed to get Shabhana Mahmood defending the PM
And so she should . The Tories should stop avoiding laying into Farage . I should say judging by some of the comments in the DT there’s a section of the public who won’t vote for Sunak because of his skin colour .
That's very sad. I liked him a lot. Clearly, he was struggling with deep-rooted demons that got the better of him.
Poor guy.
Demons? I'd guess that he started to get heatstroke, hiking in such heat, went to shelter in the cave, but either ran out of or had no water, and got worse rather than better.
The local police were working on the assumption he'd got lost and had a fall, which seems possibly correct. ..The body - which has yet to be formally identified - was found at a small cliff on a rocky hill north-east of the village of Pedi, near Agia Marina beach...
It's a small island, but just big enough for it to be hard to find someone if you don't know exactly where to look.
A really sad story.
Yes, that's possible.
I just find his behaviour odd. Going out without water or a phone. In the peak heat of the day. With an umbrella. And then going missing.
I could be wrong and it could be a tragic accident, of course.
The umbrella makes perfect sense in hot weather. You can spot an Australian because they are covered up head to toe, and aren't embarrassed by a massive hat. Short sleeves a big no-no when bushwalking.
I've never seen anyone out walking in Greece, or anywhere else hot, with an umbrella.
That'd be considered eccentricially English.
Surprisingly common out here, especially among Filipinas and Japanese ladies.
Mad dogs and Englishmen go out in the midday sun! @R.Kipling.
Parties aside, I think the Tories handled Covid OK. They protected millions of private sector jobs (whilst the public sector was still rightly getting its salaries and pensions - plus overtime). The process for getting the vaccines in place was one which undoubtedly delivered.
The only difference I can recall from Labour was that Starmer would have locked us down for another Christmas.
I think the Government have handled Ukraine very well.
Not that anyone remembers, but the Government handled the resulting rise in energy prices as well as it could afford to do, with large-scale energy bill subsidies.
This government came to power on the basis of investing in areas that had for generations voted Labour, in the expectation that they would finally get to see some cash. Sadly. Covid and Ukraine took all that money and more. The one saving grace is that if Corbyn had won in 2019, he would have already spent all the cash needed to get us through these two crises. God alone knows how we would have managed. In all likelihood, we would have had no money for furlough and be struggling with millions more unemployed.
One area where this Government does not blow its own trumpet is in jobs creation. They have an especially good case on youth unemployment - this is at low levels that prevous Labour governments could only dream about. When Labour says "What have you done for our young?", the answer is "Ensured they have jobs."
Each of these testing situations was a once-in-a-generation challenge. The government handled them as well as could have been expected. More importantly, I don't see a cigarette paper between how the Government responded - and how Labour says it would have handled things. Those desperate for change - you've effectively had a Labour government for the past five years. Prepare to be very disappointed.
It's unfortunate we won't get to see the results of the Covid inquiry until much later, but I think there will be a couple of stern words said about preparedness and the speed of response. It was very, very clear by February that the government needed to do something but Boris delayed for ideological reasons. He downplayed the severity, setting the wrong tone. These failures cost lives and I expect the report will say as much. This cultural blinkeredness continued, of course, through to the Downing Street parties. Further, I also think "eat out to help out" will attract some criticism for pushing up cases and for damaging the health messaging.
The preparedness thing will be a blame spread across many more people, of course.
The purpose here is to detail the potential mistakes, because your assessment of "ok" is probably correct, but you only gave positive examples. It we're going to add narrative to that judgement, we need to talk about the bad as well as the good.
I give them something of a pass on that, not because it was handled well, but because it's unclear anyone else would have done massively better on that. A 'perfect' response might significantly have altered the course of the UK pandemic, but given the infectivity of the virus, a bit better management wouldn't have done so.
The real failures IMO were the huge amounts of money blown on failing to transition quickly from expensive and slow PCR 'track and trace' policy to lateral flow tests; on were clearly corrupt contracts for PPE; and on fraudulent loans and the failure to recover significant amounts.
We'd still be financially stretched, but we might be anywhere between 50 and 100 £bn better off.
I do wonder on scope for a judicial enquiry into graft around the supply of PPE and the related VIP supply lane, and whether significant monies can be recovered.
Sunak should go after Farage and accuse him of being a Putin supporter and also tell him where to go with racism . I have zero time for Sunak but Farage really is absolutely loathsome .
Without wanting to excuse him for being a twat Thursday, the dog whistle 'he's not like us' horse shit is his way to begin exiting the mess and going onto the front foot (or at least trying to)
But you said yesterday that you’re planning to vote Reform. They’re only not one big dog whistle when they’re a foghorn instead.
I did indeed. I'll have to reconsider that. Party of Women looking good for a vote as last woman standing.
Farage has managed to get Shabhana Mahmood defending the PM
And so she should . The Tories should stop avoiding laying into Farage . I should say judging by some of the comments in the DT there’s a section of the public who won’t vote for Sunak because of his skin colour .
With Amber Rudd saying some Tories are now solely campaigning for 'strong opposition', going on the attack versus Farage probably helps that more than attacking Labour solely
My god. I was all bubbly and jovial. And then I got a cab to Maidan square and now I am standing in front of THIS and there are women either side of me weeping. Every flag is a fallen Ukrainian soldier
This is just one part of it. The flags go on and on. Quite close to blubbing myself.
We cannot let them lose!
Slava ukraini
Okay, your task is to find someone collecting money in the square, and give them your ten quid.
The biased BBC is showing Darkest Hour tonight, a film about a Tory prime minister with a crisis of confidence, contemplating resignation. Knowing the BBC, they've probably stuffed it full of Second World War references to boot.
That's very sad. I liked him a lot. Clearly, he was struggling with deep-rooted demons that got the better of him.
Poor guy.
Demons? I'd guess that he started to get heatstroke, hiking in such heat, went to shelter in the cave, but either ran out of or had no water, and got worse rather than better.
The local police were working on the assumption he'd got lost and had a fall, which seems possibly correct. ..The body - which has yet to be formally identified - was found at a small cliff on a rocky hill north-east of the village of Pedi, near Agia Marina beach...
It's a small island, but just big enough for it to be hard to find someone if you don't know exactly where to look.
A really sad story.
Yes, that's possible.
I just find his behaviour odd. Going out without water or a phone. In the peak heat of the day. With an umbrella. And then going missing.
I could be wrong and it could be a tragic accident, of course.
The umbrella makes perfect sense in hot weather. You can spot an Australian because they are covered up head to toe, and aren't embarrassed by a massive hat. Short sleeves a big no-no when bushwalking.
I've never seen anyone out walking in Greece, or anywhere else hot, with an umbrella.
That'd be considered eccentricially English.
Surprisingly common out here, especially among Filipinas and Japanese ladies.
Mad dogs and Englishmen go out in the midday sun! @R.Kipling.
Is it? I thought it was Noel Coward edit -Tweedledee got there first. I am henceforth Tweedledum
My god. I was all bubbly and jovial. And then I got a cab to Maidan square and now I am standing in front of THIS and there are women either side of me weeping. Every flag is a fallen Ukrainian soldier
This is just one part of it. The flags go on and on. Quite close to blubbing myself.
We cannot let them lose!
Slava ukraini
What a journey, from someone who started out as Putin's little cheerleader.
Yes, quite a journey. I’ve actually come to Ukraine - twice. I’ve been to Lviv and chernivtsi, Kyiv and Odessa. I’ve heard bombs fall on the castle of Kamanets podolski’y. I saw a chunk of missile fall on my own street in Odessa. I watched and heard the ack ack over the Potemkin steps as Putin’s drones came in - two nights ago
I’ve seen Ukrainians in crutches, I’ve met Ukrainian draft dodgers, I’ve talked to Ukrainians who have lost ALL their schoolfriends, and now I’m standing in front of the memorial to 200,000 dead Ukrainians in maidan square listening to the widows crying and in all that time you’ve been pootling around fucking Norway with your stupid little dog
That's very sad. I liked him a lot. Clearly, he was struggling with deep-rooted demons that got the better of him.
Poor guy.
Demons? I'd guess that he started to get heatstroke, hiking in such heat, went to shelter in the cave, but either ran out of or had no water, and got worse rather than better.
The local police were working on the assumption he'd got lost and had a fall, which seems possibly correct. ..The body - which has yet to be formally identified - was found at a small cliff on a rocky hill north-east of the village of Pedi, near Agia Marina beach...
It's a small island, but just big enough for it to be hard to find someone if you don't know exactly where to look.
A really sad story.
Yes, that's possible.
I just find his behaviour odd. Going out without water or a phone. In the peak heat of the day. With an umbrella. And then going missing.
I could be wrong and it could be a tragic accident, of course.
The umbrella makes perfect sense in hot weather. You can spot an Australian because they are covered up head to toe, and aren't embarrassed by a massive hat. Short sleeves a big no-no when bushwalking.
I've never seen anyone out walking in Greece, or anywhere else hot, with an umbrella.
That'd be considered eccentricially English.
Surprisingly common out here, especially among Filipinas and Japanese ladies.
Mad dogs and Englishmen go out in the midday sun! @R.Kipling.
N Coward
That’s two incorrect memories for me this morning. Is something slipping somewhere?
Actually further to my earlier post I've decided I'm standing next time. I'll save 500 quid up. I'm sick of having to pick from turd mountain. I want to be a turd. Anyone in my stitch can vote for me in 29!
Some unsourced reports on Twitter that ministers have talked him out of resigning, but only if he is free to take to more of a back seat in the campaign, with the ministers at the front.
That's very sad. I liked him a lot. Clearly, he was struggling with deep-rooted demons that got the better of him.
Poor guy.
Demons? I'd guess that he started to get heatstroke, hiking in such heat, went to shelter in the cave, but either ran out of or had no water, and got worse rather than better.
The local police were working on the assumption he'd got lost and had a fall, which seems possibly correct. ..The body - which has yet to be formally identified - was found at a small cliff on a rocky hill north-east of the village of Pedi, near Agia Marina beach...
It's a small island, but just big enough for it to be hard to find someone if you don't know exactly where to look.
A really sad story.
Yes, that's possible.
I just find his behaviour odd. Going out without water or a phone. In the peak heat of the day. With an umbrella. And then going missing.
I could be wrong and it could be a tragic accident, of course.
The umbrella makes perfect sense in hot weather. You can spot an Australian because they are covered up head to toe, and aren't embarrassed by a massive hat. Short sleeves a big no-no when bushwalking.
I've never seen anyone out walking in Greece, or anywhere else hot, with an umbrella.
That'd be considered eccentricially English.
Surprisingly common out here, especially among Filipinas and Japanese ladies.
Mad dogs and Englishmen go out in the midday sun! @R.Kipling.
N Coward
That’s two incorrect memories for me this morning. Is something slipping somewhere?
I had to think twice. It could easily come from the Just So stories
Comments
He's no fool. Going out with no phone, no water, an umbrella (wot?), not telling his wife and in area that isn't totally remote in the hottest part of the day.
Something doesn't add up.
Mass immigration needs to end or the same thing will happen to both Labour and the Tories as what's happened on the continent.
There isn't a choice where some barbarous singers and gotcha moments wake people up and make it, and him, go away.
We will have go address the underlying issue.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1VFEP_uEtQqwqa-QM5VFGOqfVIqStvztjoSrPgxjXu6A/edit?gid=0#gid=0
It's obvious that a prediction competition has to have a deadline for entries, and so some people will always miss out for a variety of reasons.
..The body - which has yet to be formally identified - was found at a small cliff on a rocky hill north-east of the village of Pedi, near Agia Marina beach...
It's a small island, but just big enough for it to be hard to find someone if you don't know exactly where to look.
A really sad story.
I prefer Odessa. Nonetheless, to maidan!
Don't you want to know who is in the box? I'm feeling curious about the box already and I only just made it up.
If conservatives don't stand up and fight, they will go the way of the conservatives across Europe and the US. No one benefits from that.
I just find his behaviour odd. Going out without water or a phone. In the peak heat of the day. With an umbrella. And then going missing.
I could be wrong and it could be a tragic accident, of course.
Looks quite rocky, too.
The umbrella would be for shade.
Just bad luck seems most likely.
Will he get a majority in Crinkley Bottom South?
Mr Blobby for Environment Secretary?
Precisely
He's waiting out the manifestos launch Tuesday
You do realise people want it addressed, right?
Two records broken in our latest results at Deltapoll:
1) The Tories lowest support we have recorded this Parliament, 21%.
2) The widest gap in net approval between Starmer and Sunak we have ever recorded, 45 points.
So, yes, I suppose it has been a bad week for Sunak.
https://x.com/MatthewPrice01/status/1799558713050558800
I may be putting two and two together and making five. Or we may find out this was something he'd struggled with for a while in the coming days.
Who knows.
https://x.com/mikegalsworthy/status/1799651522940440708
Fucking grim
He's a tit, no more than that is reasonable or proportionate
There was a massive increased in domestic production:
Thanks to the unprecedented domestic production of PPE, for items such gowns and FFP3 facemasks, 70 per cent of the expected demand for PPE will be met by UK manufacturers from December. Businesses have been supporting the national effort by creating hundreds of new jobs and reducing reliance on overseas companies. Before the pandemic, just 1 per cent of PPE was produced in the UK.
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/huge-increase-in-uk-personal-protective-equipment-production
But has it been maintained ?
There's far, far less risk of corruption if to place a PPE contract you email a factory alongside the M1 than if you hand over hundreds of millions to some politically connected person to source crap from China.
I saw the interview with Farage this morning. Any Tory leader of the last forty years would have taken him apart.
My late Tory father-in-law would be spinning in his grave at the Tory accommodation of the populist right. He was very much into respect, fair play and what matters is what works. That sort of Tory.
For the life of me I can't see why Sunak doesn't start going on the offensive against Farage. He might find that most right wingers prefer conservatism to populism. But you have to be confident.
1. Stop calling your opponents muppets. Given the state of public services, public finances and government moral failure there are very good reasons to think Labour are, at the very least, the least worst option at present.
2. You are presenting half the story. We are in this state at least partly because the moral limits on eg executive pay, levels of inequality, treatment of the most vulnerable have been broken by a Tory government that is simply looking after it's own. A degree of 'eat the rich' to put it in your crude terms, is probably needed. I trust Starmer to moderate those tendencies to a sensible level. I may be wrong, but I hope not.
Which constituencies will have the largest share for each Party?
Lab, Con, LD, Reform, Green. That's 5 questions.
Which constituencies will have the largest and smallest numerical majority?
How many seats for each of the Parties in NI?
I didn’t realise that only a few of the questions related to the GE.
I think a GE prediction competition should have a cut off that is just before the event. Although you could also have 3 stages with cut-offs to allow amendments and 1/3rd points at each stage. Fairly easy to do and fun: more Spreads than Sportsbook, in other words.
But I very much appreciate @Benpointer doing it at all and anyone else contributing to this site, which they do gratis.
I think what would be useful is to have a second competition running alongside which is specifically GE on a range of results (including Clacton and perhaps that largest overturned majority one which just popped up) with a cut-off shortly before July 4th. Maybe July 1st 6pm or somefink.
Nobody wanting to be taken seriously wears a blazer.
Heat exhaustion can lead to mental disturbance, of course, but that still doesn’t explain the lack of even the most basic precautions.
It’s very sad.
Number of isolated constituencies.
This is defined as a seat which does not have a neighbouring seat of the same party. Island seats do not count.
So currently St Albans is an isolated seat (no neighbouring LibDem seats) but if the Lib Dems win Harpenden and Berkhampsted as well as St Albans then neither seat would be isolated.
It's the sort of thing that at least nine times out of ten, you'd be fine and just think 'maybe that was a bit silly of me'.
That'd be considered eccentricially English.
From around 1997, I think.
So I’m guessing the obvious ones need to be added don’t they?
- Party vote shares
- Party seats
- Size of Labour majority (if there is one)
And then:
- Clacton result (this would be a fun one to add to the list?)
- Number of Cabinet ministers to lose their seats
- Biggest swing in any one seat
@Farooq
xx
Casino says "he's no fool", but being intelligent and well informed can easily lead to overconfidence. He probably didn't have any water and was surprised by how quickly the symptoms of heatstroke came on.
He was heading back towards his family's holiday accommodation, not off into the wilds.
This is just one part of it. The flags go on and on. Quite close to blubbing myself.
We cannot let them lose!
Slava ukraini
You have to "engage" accordingly.
Lab - Liverpool xxxx
LD - crikey. Umm Kingston etc
Reform - Rotherham
Green - Bristol Central
Con - Orpington or Penfold Central (Rayleigh)
Biggest majority- Liverpool somewhere
Smallest - no way to even guess but F and ST in NI is usually a bum nipper
NI seats - SF 7, DUP 6, Alliance 2, UUP 2, SDLP 1
For anyone without a photographic memory, predictions are here:
https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/01/14/pb-predictions-competition-2024-entries/
I'm only on 10, because Rishi got his timing wrong, Yousaf welched, and the voters gave the pollsters the wrong answer.
And that derived from the earlier Italian.
People who think that they can ignore the sustainability aspect are indeed muppets and that includes not just those of the left but also the likes of Truss/Kwarteng on the right. Neither can give more than a short term fix at long term cost.
If we want public services that meet (a) we need to grow our tax base. As a generality achieving that by increasing taxes on our existing production disincentivises investment, economic activity and future tax flows.
What we should be discussing as a nation is what are the parameters of this, can we increase taxes to meet current needs without damaging future growth? The current government has significantly increased taxes already to fund its spending and the result of that and far too little investment has been low growth. But discussing such issues would be grown up politics and our media, politicians and electorate seem to have very little interest or enthusiasm for that.
The simple theory that fits all the available facts and handsomely explains Sunak's behaviour is that he's shit at his job, given up all hope of winning, and went into the campaign demob happy.
Ask about something that doesn't exist to try and manifest something
@fhall1998
Work and Pensions Sec. Mel Stride tells Sunday with @lewis_goodall on @LBC Rishi Sunak is 'deeply patriotic', insisting the PM will 'absolutely' lead the Conservative Party into the general election amid D-Day row
And what do you do as a political leader, having watched Labour be rejected by the electorate in its many different guises over the past few years, if you know that what you've written above is true but you also know you can't really talk about it?
I'm as sceptical as the next person of the 'growth will solve everything' line from Reeves, but if it signals a 'we'll tax sensibly to fund investment' then I'm about as happy as I'm likely to get with the current choices available to us.
If you mean taxing stocks and shares etc, then absolutely that's a bloody stupid idea and that will result in capital flight.
If you mean taxing land ownership and saying those who own a portion of this countries land need to pay a portion of this countries running costs (whether they be British or live abroad), then that's entirely possible and can't result in capital flight.
The real scandal here is that politicians have been complicit in this, including (if his deafening silence is anything to go by) SKS.
But I suspect that most of the moaning after the first few months of euphoria will come from the left of the Labour party and people who seem to have convinced themselves that this government is not spending enough because they are nasty Tories rather than because the spending reflects (sort of) our current resources.
Farage has managed to get Shabhana Mahmood defending the PM
Edit - I mean I loathe the damn lot of them but I really don't do not voting. If I'd had 500 quid spare I'd honestly have stood myself (not bothering to campaign)
1% !
@R.Kipling.
2) Bloody hell, the rest of you are very pessimistic on Olympic chances vs. recent years.
edit -Tweedledee got there first. I am henceforth Tweedledum
I’ve seen Ukrainians in crutches, I’ve met Ukrainian draft dodgers, I’ve talked to Ukrainians who have lost ALL their schoolfriends, and now I’m standing in front of the memorial to 200,000 dead Ukrainians in maidan square listening to the widows crying and in all that time you’ve been pootling around fucking Norway with your stupid little dog
Didn't realise the fines were only £100.
https://www.kirklees.gov.uk/beta/voting-and-elections/pdf/statement-of-persons-nominated-ossett-and-denby-dale-constituency.pdf
Anyone in my stitch can vote for me in 29!
Maybe he really has had enough.