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PB Predictions Competition 2024 – update! – politicalbetting.com
PB Predictions Competition 2024 – update! – politicalbetting.com
John William Waterhouse – The Crystal Ball – Wikipedia Public Domain
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Just gaving a scooch at the Deltapoll findings and im a little surprised that Sunaks personal ratings have taken such a small hit, thats the metric i expect to get hammered over DDay. The minus 4 VI is likely a mixture of reversion to campaign mean (23), Reformgasm and some immediate hit from being the nations biggest arse, but his personals not hit so hard (thats my kick him in the nuts joke for today).
On the other hand, the economic competence gap has closed a bit which might normally lead to a smaller VI gap..... so perhaps the underlying hit is much worse?!
Mondays polls (and any randoms today) have tales to tell!
Any hit will slowly unwind i think esp after manifestos but tick tock tick tock.........
Brexit is the most consequential thing the Conservatives have done since the last election. More, it is the most impactful legacy of their 14-year stretch in power. When the histories are written, every other failure of this Tory era will be a footnote compared with that epic folly.
Given the odds that Labour will form the next government, it would be useful to know how exactly it plans to set about trying to salve the pain inflicted by Brexit. But Sir Keir Starmer, though an ardent Remainer back in the day, is unlikely to say anything more substantial before he’s inside Number 10.
What Labour isn’t interested in, for fear of exposing its shins to a kicking from its enemies on the right, is engaging the electorate in a wider conversation about the tougher decisions that will be necessary to get to a sustainable future [and tackle the climate crisis].
A grown-up conversation about the biggest challenges facing Britain is especially unlikely to happen during a campaign in which Labour sees no incentive to take any chances with its apparently enormous advantage and the Tories are limping so far behind in the polls that they are terrified of shedding what shrivelled support they have left. Although the creaking state of the NHS, schools, courts, prisons and other key elements of the public realm are supposed to be central to this election, we are not going to have a full and frank conversation about how to revive them because this would entail having an adult discourse about taxation.
The debate we deserve is not the puerile one the politicians are having about whose figures are the more fictitious. What we ought to be talking about is how to modernise the tax system to make it more equitable and more helpful to growth. On tax, the discussion we ought to be having is about how to make it simpler, fairer and more efficient. Just as we should be talking about addressing the climate crisis and the best way to shape Britain’s relationship with its continent. Taboo subjects for both the main parties on the campaign trail, these critical debates will be made to wait until we get to the other side of polling day.
He's quids in!
I reckon I wake up around 4am, which is 7am where I will be, and hope there’s one been declared by then.
Parties aside, I think the Tories handled Covid OK. They protected millions of private sector jobs (whilst the public sector was still rightly getting its salaries and pensions - plus overtime). The process for getting the vaccines in place was one which undoubtedly delivered.
The only difference I can recall from Labour was that Starmer would have locked us down for another Christmas.
I think the Government have handled Ukraine very well.
Not that anyone remembers, but the Government handled the resulting rise in energy prices as well as it could afford to do, with large-scale energy bill subsidies.
This government came to power on the basis of investing in areas that had for generations voted Labour, in the expectation that they would finally get to see some cash. Sadly. Covid and Ukraine took all that money and more. The one saving grace is that if Corbyn had won in 2019, he would have already spent all the cash needed to get us through these two crises. God alone knows how we would have managed. In all likelihood, we would have had no money for furlough and be struggling with millions more unemployed.
One area where this Government does not blow its own trumpet is in jobs creation. They have an especially good case on youth unemployment - this is at low levels that prevous Labour governments could only dream about. When Labour says "What have you done for our young?", the answer is "Ensured they have jobs."
Each of these testing situations was a once-in-a-generation challenge. The government handled them as well as could have been expected. More importantly, I don't see a cigarette paper between how the Government responded - and how Labour says it would have handled things. Those desperate for change - you've effectively had a Labour government for the past five years. Prepare to be very disappointed.
Us laggards have gone off topic very quickly.
(Not a sentence you should ever expect to utter!)
How they get around accusations of deception when they start raising taxes will be an interesting one. Have they left themselves any wriggle room for additional taxes? Will the play the "OMG now we've looked at the books the finances are on the rocks" line?
I can’t remember entirely my prediction answers but iirc was quite bearish on Labour so suspect I’m already out of the running.
Good to see TSE up and running (PB-wise at least) again.
About the 2k tax bollocks.
Determined to go down swinging...
Mel Stride, representing the Tories on the broadcast round this morning, says he hasn't spoken to Rishi Sunak since the row broke over his D-Day snub.
Amazing.
If Nadine Dorries is right then then the Tories as the largest party in a hung parliament is nailed on and there's huge value in backing a Tory majority.
I have always said that Cameron was popped into the Lords and into a senior ministerial post for a reason.
I thought maybe it was to replace Sunak at an earlier stage.
Rumours around tonight that Sunak’s about to fall on his sword.
There are no MPs - only Ministers.
If Sunak does resign, any replacement would have to come from within Ministerial ranks…
https://x.com/NadineDorries/status/1799564861803819256
Dave showed in Normandy he is more prime ministerial than Starmer.
Brutal interview with Mel Stride on Sky in which he had to deny that Sunak might quit early, saying the PM will "absolutely" lead the Tories into the election
Still not clear how the Conservatives get on the front foot again after D Day debacle
total number of votes?
Tory seats?
Time of first Result / or location Newcastle / Sunderland / Other?
Worth adding counting is getting harder as you no longer have bank tellers who skill was counting papers quickly - this is to say I don't expect world records to be broken any longer..
Edit - actually the question I would ask is - time of first Tory win (based on the time the words - and XYZ (the Tory candidate) is the winner) 20 points for correct answer, 10 if within 10 minutes.
New Mail on Sunday poll shows Rishi Sunak on course to lose his own seat.
https://x.com/DPJHodges/status/1799713109759984096
Edit: I think this is it: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12nbHasbPER7LGhpAxwtVdnQ0hjyOiS2X/edit?usp=share_link&ouid=115253910051197093363&rtpof=true&sd=true
1) The catastrophic economic impact of the Truss premiership
2) The fundamental disrespect number 10 showed the nation (and HM) whilst they partied through COVID.
The problem with the D-Day thing is that it's part of a pattern with this government. Party first, country second.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MW9YQf6rRE8
It makes it very hard for any current promises to be believed.
Biggest winning vote margin in any constitiuency (excluding Mr Speaker).
https://electionresults.parliament.uk/general-elections/4/declaration-times
What do we reckon is the first Tory hold? Remember there’s boundary changes, so the seats won’t match exactly.
North Swindon (maj16k)
Brokbourne (maj 20k)
Rayleigh and Wickford (Mark Francois) (maj 31k)
Bracknell (maj 20k)
Were all before 2am last time.
How about:
Number of party leaders standing who win a seat? Bonus points for picking who, as well.
It’s irksome because I predicted a Labour landslide 2 years ago
@Benpointer
They lack any coherent industrial strategy.
Levelling up is a national joke.
They have continued to eviscerate local government.
They're rubbish on housing.
They've failed to make any practical case for Brexit, which continues to be a nagging distraction and drag on the economy.
And I haven't even detailed the financial and corruption scandals.
Would Labour have been any better ?
Counterfactuals are hard, since what parties say in opposition is rarely an accurate predictor of what they do in government.
Possibly not.
But it's also on possible they'll make a slightly better fist of things this time round. Not holding my breath, though.
- FT article entitled "The Bank of England is misusing its fiscal powers"
Archive copies- https://archive.is/?run=1&url=https://www.ft.com/content/5209be99-3f6b-4ba3-b3f3-49b544f71c28
- https://archive.ph/?run=1&url=https://www.ft.com/content/5209be99-3f6b-4ba3-b3f3-49b544f71c28
IAS summary (generated by AI?)- https://www.ias.edu/news/bank-england-misusing-fiscal-powers
@Luckyguy1983 , is this what you've been going on about?Why don't you pull together 10 questions from suggestions, agree them with TSE and publish a header a week or so before the election asking for entries?
(I'd be happy to do it but I don't want to pinch your idea.)
Sorry @TSE but he was the future once and that ain’t now.
Of all the most ridiculous things I have ever seen proposed in politics it’s that PM Sunak will stand down 3 week before the election.
Now pull yourselves together. (Channelling my inner Mrs Thatcher there!)
xx
I think it is unlikely but not impossible
And by the way I know you were interested, but it looks like the seagull chick has not survived as the parents are silent and our security cameras picked up the fox actively engaged in the small area where it was
Sad for those of us who care for animals but as the RSPB told me when I phoned them yesterday it is natural selection unfortunately
Either one that does, will surely be rewarded in November, but they both seem totally wedded to the most unsuitable candidates in history.
Lab 42.5%
Con 28.5%
LibDem 9%
Green 5%
Lab majority 185
I’ll amend it slightly now that Farage has decided to lose for the 8th time.
Lab 40.5%
Con 26.5%
Reform 10%
LibDem 11%
Green 6%
Labour majority: 172
LibDems 39-40 seats
Reform 0 seats
The fieldwork for the most recent polls is largely pre D Day Gate, and pre Farage debate appearance.
I still expect the Reform bounce in the next few days’ polls and will be holding my bets on them accordingly, until Tues/Weds at least.
Mind, I don't think my NOM prediction is looking like a winner.
I love watching the David Attenborough programmes but gosh, yes, nature can be cruel.
But if you want to post answers to questions 4. to 10. please do. I'll keep a sideline record of your answers (and anybody else's too). You won't win the competition but if you get 4. to 10. right, think of the kudos!
Poor guy.
It is worrying that many of the same people who propelled him to the job would be happy with Nigel Fucking Farage instead, but that's a future problem.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1mVF_IPhgNgMar-oH3Q4XhWJnpVt4UiECLkFhDIXwZlY/edit?gid=0#gid=0
Today in Sunakland: Rumours circulate that he has cancelled his media appearances and that he may be about to resign, with the inevitable effect that once everyone has got themselves excited at the prospect of a further huge drama, they'll resent him even more when he fails to go
A 'perfect' response might significantly have altered the course of the UK pandemic, but given the infectivity of the virus, a bit better management wouldn't have done so.
The real failures IMO were the huge amounts of money blown on failing to transition quickly from expensive and slow PCR 'track and trace' policy to lateral flow tests; on were clearly corrupt contracts for PPE; and on fraudulent loans and the failure to recover significant amounts.
We'd still be financially stretched, but we might be anywhere between 50 and 100 £bn better off.
@sima_kotecha
#BBCLauraK asks Nigel Farage what he meant by saying PM doesn’t understand “our” history & culture. NF said PM should have known in heart it was right to be at #DDay80 & emphasised commonwealth contribution in war. Govt’s Mel Stride said he felt uncomfortable about NF’s remarks.
But mostly I think the government did fairly well over covid -- some good stuff, some bad stuff, some "blindsided by events", and a lot of "about the same actions and outcomes as peer countries in the region".
;-)