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PB Predictions Competition 2024 – update! – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,801
edited June 16 in General
imagePB Predictions Competition 2024 – update! – politicalbetting.com

John William Waterhouse – The Crystal Ball – Wikipedia Public Domain

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  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,122
    FpT
    Just gaving a scooch at the Deltapoll findings and im a little surprised that Sunaks personal ratings have taken such a small hit, thats the metric i expect to get hammered over DDay. The minus 4 VI is likely a mixture of reversion to campaign mean (23), Reformgasm and some immediate hit from being the nations biggest arse, but his personals not hit so hard (thats my kick him in the nuts joke for today).
    On the other hand, the economic competence gap has closed a bit which might normally lead to a smaller VI gap..... so perhaps the underlying hit is much worse?!
    Mondays polls (and any randoms today) have tales to tell!
    Any hit will slowly unwind i think esp after manifestos but tick tock tick tock.........
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    Nunu5Nunu5 Posts: 81
    Sandpit said:

    1st Tory seat hold will make me very happy.

    If, there are any!
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,761
    Nunu5 said:

    Sandpit said:

    1st Tory seat hold will make me very happy.

    If, there are any!
    I only need one!
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    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,978
    Sandpit said:

    1st Tory seat hold will make me very happy.

    Do I remember correctly from 1997 that 75 Labour MPs were returned before the first Tory? Obviously not the end proportion, but I wonder if it will feel.like ELE averted by the v end of the night or whether we'll get some speedier shire counts in.
  • Options
    Regarding hedging the Leon/Sandpit super bet. All Sandpit needs to do is persuade bet365 he can (a) lay at their quoted odds and (b) have a 628 bet accumulator - and he gets odds of: 23,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 / 1 (that's 105 zeros)

    He's quids in!
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,761
    Pro_Rata said:

    Sandpit said:

    1st Tory seat hold will make me very happy.

    Do I remember correctly from 1997 that 75 Labour MPs were returned before the first Tory? Obviously not the end proportion, but I wonder if it will feel.like ELE averted by the v end of the night or whether we'll get some speedier shire counts in.
    The first few are definitely Labour holds, in Northern cities such as Sunderland and Newcastle. The first bellwether is usually Nuneaton at around 1am, which will probably go Labour this time.

    I reckon I wake up around 4am, which is 7am where I will be, and hope there’s one been declared by then.
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    londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,418
    Still not too late for CON to make a comeback to keep it to LAB maj 30 👍
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,926
    Sandpit said:

    Nunu5 said:

    Sandpit said:

    1st Tory seat hold will make me very happy.

    If, there are any!
    I only need one!
    We'll give you Penny M; she probably deserves it.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,532
    edited June 9
    Curse of the new thread - in answer to nico:

    Parties aside, I think the Tories handled Covid OK. They protected millions of private sector jobs (whilst the public sector was still rightly getting its salaries and pensions - plus overtime). The process for getting the vaccines in place was one which undoubtedly delivered.

    The only difference I can recall from Labour was that Starmer would have locked us down for another Christmas.

    I think the Government have handled Ukraine very well.

    Not that anyone remembers, but the Government handled the resulting rise in energy prices as well as it could afford to do, with large-scale energy bill subsidies.

    This government came to power on the basis of investing in areas that had for generations voted Labour, in the expectation that they would finally get to see some cash. Sadly. Covid and Ukraine took all that money and more. The one saving grace is that if Corbyn had won in 2019, he would have already spent all the cash needed to get us through these two crises. God alone knows how we would have managed. In all likelihood, we would have had no money for furlough and be struggling with millions more unemployed.

    One area where this Government does not blow its own trumpet is in jobs creation. They have an especially good case on youth unemployment - this is at low levels that prevous Labour governments could only dream about. When Labour says "What have you done for our young?", the answer is "Ensured they have jobs."

    Each of these testing situations was a once-in-a-generation challenge. The government handled them as well as could have been expected. More importantly, I don't see a cigarette paper between how the Government responded - and how Labour says it would have handled things. Those desperate for change - you've effectively had a Labour government for the past five years. Prepare to be very disappointed.
  • Options
    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,978
    And thanks BenPointer for the update.

    Us laggards have gone off topic very quickly.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,532
    Sandpit said:

    Nunu5 said:

    Sandpit said:

    1st Tory seat hold will make me very happy.

    If, there are any!
    I only need one!
    Gavin Williamson will save your ass!

    (Not a sentence you should ever expect to utter!)
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,084

    Curse of the new thread - in answer to nico:

    Parties aside, I think the Tories handled Covid OK. They protected millions of private sector jobs (whilst the public sector was still rightly getting its salaries and pensions - plus overtime). The process for getting the vaccines in place was one which undoubtedly delivered.

    The only difference I can recall from Labour was that Starmer would have locked us down for another Christmas.

    I think the Government have handled Ukraine very well.

    Not that anyone remembers, but the Government handled the resulting rise in energy prices as well as it could afford to do, with large-scale energy bill subsidies.

    This government came to power on the basis of investing in areas that had for generations voted Labour, in the expectation that they would finally get to see some cash. Sadly. Covid and Ukraine took all that money and more. The one saving grace is that if Corbyn had won in 2019, he would have already spent all the cash needed to get us through these two crises. God alone knows how we would have managed. In all likelihood, we wuld have had no money for furlough and would be struggling with millions more unemployed.

    One area where this Government does not blow its own trumpet is in jobs creation. They have an especially good case on youth unemployment - this is at low levels that prevous Labour governments could only dream about. When Labour says "What have you done for our young?", the answer is "Ensured they have jobs."

    Each of these testing situations was a once-in-a-generation challenge. The government handled them as well as could have been expected. More importantly, I don't see a cigarette paper between how the Government responded - and how Labour says it would have handled things. Those desperate for change - you've effectively had a Labour government for the past five years. Prepare to be very disappointed.

    I understand why you have to spin this complex yarn, but if the events of the last few weeks have demonstrated anything it is that there is a competency gap at the heart of Sunak's number ten.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 45,887

    Still not too late for CON to make a comeback to keep it to LAB maj 30 👍

    My prediction of Lab 20 seats short hasn't aged well.
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 32,967
    IanB2 said:

    Nice and early on this beautiful sunny and cloudless morning, the Sunday Rawnsley:

    Brexit is the most consequential thing the Conservatives have done since the last election. More, it is the most impactful legacy of their 14-year stretch in power. When the histories are written, every other failure of this Tory era will be a footnote compared with that epic folly.

    Given the odds that Labour will form the next government, it would be useful to know how exactly it plans to set about trying to salve the pain inflicted by Brexit. But Sir Keir Starmer, though an ardent Remainer back in the day, is unlikely to say anything more substantial before he’s inside Number 10.

    What Labour isn’t interested in, for fear of exposing its shins to a kicking from its enemies on the right, is engaging the electorate in a wider conversation about the tougher decisions that will be necessary to get to a sustainable future [and tackle the climate crisis].

    A grown-up conversation about the biggest challenges facing Britain is especially unlikely to happen during a campaign in which Labour sees no incentive to take any chances with its apparently enormous advantage and the Tories are limping so far behind in the polls that they are terrified of shedding what shrivelled support they have left. Although the creaking state of the NHS, schools, courts, prisons and other key elements of the public realm are supposed to be central to this election, we are not going to have a full and frank conversation about how to revive them because this would entail having an adult discourse about taxation.

    The debate we deserve is not the puerile one the politicians are having about whose figures are the more fictitious. What we ought to be talking about is how to modernise the tax system to make it more equitable and more helpful to growth. On tax, the discussion we ought to be having is about how to make it simpler, fairer and more efficient. Just as we should be talking about addressing the climate crisis and the best way to shape Britain’s relationship with its continent. Taboo subjects for both the main parties on the campaign trail, these critical debates will be made to wait until we get to the other side of polling day.

    All true. It's sad that Labour are in danger of tying their own hands over taxing the wealthy but they are clearly focused on getting over the line, and I can't blame them for that.

    How they get around accusations of deception when they start raising taxes will be an interesting one. Have they left themselves any wriggle room for additional taxes? Will the play the "OMG now we've looked at the books the finances are on the rocks" line?
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,761
    Foxy said:

    Still not too late for CON to make a comeback to keep it to LAB maj 30 👍

    My prediction of Lab 20 seats short hasn't aged well.
    20 seats short, of the 632 in GB?
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    FarooqFarooq Posts: 11,878
    On topic: we should have a GE-specific competition where each person who wants to take part gets to contribute a question.

    If this appeals, I'll start:
    In how many seats will the Reform vote exceed the Conservative vote?
    Judging criteria: 20 points for the correct answer, 19 for 1 out, and so on to a minimum of 0

    Questions should be GE-related, so answerable in the hours and days immediately after 10pm on 4th July.

    If there's enough interest (say at least ten questions) I'll happy to administer it. Get your questions in today, but don't worry about the answers yet.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,356
    Mel Stride asked to confirm if Richi will still be party leader at the election
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,532
    Jonathan said:

    Curse of the new thread - in answer to nico:

    Parties aside, I think the Tories handled Covid OK. They protected millions of private sector jobs (whilst the public sector was still rightly getting its salaries and pensions - plus overtime). The process for getting the vaccines in place was one which undoubtedly delivered.

    The only difference I can recall from Labour was that Starmer would have locked us down for another Christmas.

    I think the Government have handled Ukraine very well.

    Not that anyone remembers, but the Government handled the resulting rise in energy prices as well as it could afford to do, with large-scale energy bill subsidies.

    This government came to power on the basis of investing in areas that had for generations voted Labour, in the expectation that they would finally get to see some cash. Sadly. Covid and Ukraine took all that money and more. The one saving grace is that if Corbyn had won in 2019, he would have already spent all the cash needed to get us through these two crises. God alone knows how we would have managed. In all likelihood, we wuld have had no money for furlough and would be struggling with millions more unemployed.

    One area where this Government does not blow its own trumpet is in jobs creation. They have an especially good case on youth unemployment - this is at low levels that prevous Labour governments could only dream about. When Labour says "What have you done for our young?", the answer is "Ensured they have jobs."

    Each of these testing situations was a once-in-a-generation challenge. The government handled them as well as could have been expected. More importantly, I don't see a cigarette paper between how the Government responded - and how Labour says it would have handled things. Those desperate for change - you've effectively had a Labour government for the past five years. Prepare to be very disappointed.

    I understand why you have to spin this complex yarn, but if the events of the last few weeks have demonstrated anything it is that there is a competency gap at the heart of Sunak's number ten.
    Complex yarn? Pick it apart then.
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    GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,488
    I love that Waterhouse painting.

    I can’t remember entirely my prediction answers but iirc was quite bearish on Labour so suspect I’m already out of the running.
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    eekeek Posts: 25,864

    Curse of the new thread - in answer to nico:

    Parties aside, I think the Tories handled Covid OK. They protected millions of private sector jobs (whilst the public sector was still rightly getting its salaries and pensions - plus overtime). The process for getting the vaccines in place was one which undoubtedly delivered.

    The only difference I can recall from Labour was that Starmer would have locked us down for another Christmas.

    I think the Government have handled Ukraine very well.

    Not that anyone remembers, but the Government handled the resulting rise in energy prices as well as it could afford to do, with large-scale energy bill subsidies.

    This government came to power on the basis of investing in areas that had for generations voted Labour, in the expectation that they would finally get to see some cash. Sadly. Covid and Ukraine took all that money and more. The one saving grace is that if Corbyn had won in 2019, he would have already spent all the cash needed to get us through these two crises. God alone knows how we would have managed. In all likelihood, we would have had no money for furlough and be struggling with millions more unemployed.

    One area where this Government does not blow its own trumpet is in jobs creation. They have an especially good case on youth unemployment - this is at low levels that prevous Labour governments could only dream about. When Labour says "What have you done for our young?", the answer is "Ensured they have jobs."

    Each of these testing situations was a once-in-a-generation challenge. The government handled them as well as could have been expected. More importantly, I don't see a cigarette paper between how the Government responded - and how Labour says it would have handled things. Those desperate for change - you've effectively had a Labour government for the past five years. Prepare to be very disappointed.

    I'm also at a loss as to what jobs the young have - because a lot of the young I know have dead end jobs with zero prospects.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 32,967
    Pro_Rata said:

    And thanks BenPointer for the update.

    Us laggards have gone off topic very quickly.

    Not a problem, I did the update partly because I thought RCS might be struggling for headers with TSE out of action.

    Good to see TSE up and running (PB-wise at least) again.
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,122
    Sandpit said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Sandpit said:

    1st Tory seat hold will make me very happy.

    Do I remember correctly from 1997 that 75 Labour MPs were returned before the first Tory? Obviously not the end proportion, but I wonder if it will feel.like ELE averted by the v end of the night or whether we'll get some speedier shire counts in.
    The first few are definitely Labour holds, in Northern cities such as Sunderland and Newcastle. The first bellwether is usually Nuneaton at around 1am, which will probably go Labour this time.

    I reckon I wake up around 4am, which is 7am where I will be, and hope there’s one been declared by then.
    The Sunderland declarations will also give a very goid steer on Reforms prospects and hit on the Tories as a strong area for them
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,356
    Although Richi is hiding, there has been a Tweet from his account this morning.

    About the 2k tax bollocks.

    Determined to go down swinging...
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,356
    @KevinASchofield

    Mel Stride, representing the Tories on the broadcast round this morning, says he hasn't spoken to Rishi Sunak since the row broke over his D-Day snub.

    Amazing.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,464
    Foxy said:

    Still not too late for CON to make a comeback to keep it to LAB maj 30 👍

    My prediction of Lab 20 seats short hasn't aged well.
    There's a game changer yet to come.

    If Nadine Dorries is right then then the Tories as the largest party in a hung parliament is nailed on and there's huge value in backing a Tory majority.

    I have always said that Cameron was popped into the Lords and into a senior ministerial post for a reason.

    I thought maybe it was to replace Sunak at an earlier stage.

    Rumours around tonight that Sunak’s about to fall on his sword.

    There are no MPs - only Ministers.

    If Sunak does resign, any replacement would have to come from within Ministerial ranks…


    https://x.com/NadineDorries/status/1799564861803819256

    Dave showed in Normandy he is more prime ministerial than Starmer.
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,356
    @Smyth_Chris

    Brutal interview with Mel Stride on Sky in which he had to deny that Sunak might quit early, saying the PM will "absolutely" lead the Tories into the election

    Still not clear how the Conservatives get on the front foot again after D Day debacle
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,864
    edited June 9
    Farooq said:

    On topic: we should have a GE-specific competition where each person who wants to take part gets to contribute a question.

    If this appeals, I'll start:
    In how many seats will the Reform vote exceed the Conservative vote?
    Judging criteria: 20 points for the correct answer, 19 for 1 out, and so on to a minimum of 0

    Questions should be GE-related, so answerable in the hours and days immediately after 10pm on 4th July.

    If there's enough interest (say at least ten questions) I'll happy to administer it. Get your questions in today, but don't worry about the answers yet.

    There is the obvious ones of

    total number of votes?
    Tory seats?
    Time of first Result / or location Newcastle / Sunderland / Other?

    Worth adding counting is getting harder as you no longer have bank tellers who skill was counting papers quickly - this is to say I don't expect world records to be broken any longer..

    Edit - actually the question I would ask is - time of first Tory win (based on the time the words - and XYZ (the Tory candidate) is the winner) 20 points for correct answer, 10 if within 10 minutes.
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,356
    @DPJHodges

    New Mail on Sunday poll shows Rishi Sunak on course to lose his own seat.

    https://x.com/DPJHodges/status/1799713109759984096
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    GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,488

    Foxy said:

    Still not too late for CON to make a comeback to keep it to LAB maj 30 👍

    My prediction of Lab 20 seats short hasn't aged well.
    There's a game changer yet to come.

    If Nadine Dorries is right then then the Tories as the largest party in a hung parliament is nailed on and there's huge value in backing a Tory majority.

    I have always said that Cameron was popped into the Lords and into a senior ministerial post for a reason.

    I thought maybe it was to replace Sunak at an earlier stage.

    Rumours around tonight that Sunak’s about to fall on his sword.

    There are no MPs - only Ministers.

    If Sunak does resign, any replacement would have to come from within Ministerial ranks…


    https://x.com/NadineDorries/status/1799564861803819256

    Dave showed in Normandy he is more prime ministerial than Starmer.
    “If Nadine Dorries is right” being the key clause in that speculation.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,464

    Pro_Rata said:

    And thanks BenPointer for the update.

    Us laggards have gone off topic very quickly.

    Not a problem, I did the update partly because I thought RCS might be struggling for headers with TSE out of action.

    Good to see TSE up and running (PB-wise at least) again.
    The downside of being home, I no longer have access to any morphine,
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 32,967

    Foxy said:

    Still not too late for CON to make a comeback to keep it to LAB maj 30 👍

    My prediction of Lab 20 seats short hasn't aged well.
    There's a game changer yet to come.

    If Nadine Dorries is right then then the Tories as the largest party in a hung parliament is nailed on and there's huge value in backing a Tory majority.

    I have always said that Cameron was popped into the Lords and into a senior ministerial post for a reason.

    I thought maybe it was to replace Sunak at an earlier stage.

    Rumours around tonight that Sunak’s about to fall on his sword.

    There are no MPs - only Ministers.

    If Sunak does resign, any replacement would have to come from within Ministerial ranks…


    https://x.com/NadineDorries/status/1799564861803819256

    Dave showed in Normandy he is more prime ministerial than Starmer.
    Good to see your sense of humour untarnished!
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    TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 197
    Royal funeral theory: contra the claim that the Tories would refuse a request for an early election because a funeral during the campaign would boost them, the response would be: if you refuse, the fact of your refusal will leak during the campaign. That really would have the potential to reduce them to nul seats.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,464
    Ghedebrav said:

    Foxy said:

    Still not too late for CON to make a comeback to keep it to LAB maj 30 👍

    My prediction of Lab 20 seats short hasn't aged well.
    There's a game changer yet to come.

    If Nadine Dorries is right then then the Tories as the largest party in a hung parliament is nailed on and there's huge value in backing a Tory majority.

    I have always said that Cameron was popped into the Lords and into a senior ministerial post for a reason.

    I thought maybe it was to replace Sunak at an earlier stage.

    Rumours around tonight that Sunak’s about to fall on his sword.

    There are no MPs - only Ministers.

    If Sunak does resign, any replacement would have to come from within Ministerial ranks…


    https://x.com/NadineDorries/status/1799564861803819256

    Dave showed in Normandy he is more prime ministerial than Starmer.
    “If Nadine Dorries is right” being the key clause in that speculation.
    Stopped clocks etc.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,864
    Scott_xP said:

    @Smyth_Chris

    Brutal interview with Mel Stride on Sky in which he had to deny that Sunak might quit early, saying the PM will "absolutely" lead the Tories into the election

    Still not clear how the Conservatives get on the front foot again after D Day debacle

    I can't work out how the idea that Rishi is going to quit early has entered the conversation...
  • Options
    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 15,249
    Farooq said:

    On topic: we should have a GE-specific competition where each person who wants to take part gets to contribute a question.

    If this appeals, I'll start:
    In how many seats will the Reform vote exceed the Conservative vote?
    Judging criteria: 20 points for the correct answer, 19 for 1 out, and so on to a minimum of 0

    Questions should be GE-related, so answerable in the hours and days immediately after 10pm on 4th July.

    If there's enough interest (say at least ten questions) I'll happy to administer it. Get your questions in today, but don't worry about the answers yet.

    First seat to declare a Conservative win.
  • Options
    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,105

    Pro_Rata said:

    And thanks BenPointer for the update.

    Us laggards have gone off topic very quickly.

    Not a problem, I did the update partly because I thought RCS might be struggling for headers with TSE out of action.

    Good to see TSE up and running (PB-wise at least) again.
    The downside of being home, I no longer have access to any morphine,
    Well not legal access. I’m sure you’d be able to locate an opiate entrepreneur.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 32,967
    edited June 9
    Ghedebrav said:

    I love that Waterhouse painting.

    I can’t remember entirely my prediction answers but iirc was quite bearish on Labour so suspect I’m already out of the running.

    If I can remember how to post the spreadie of everyone's predictions without doxxing myself, I'll do so.

    Edit: I think this is it: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12nbHasbPER7LGhpAxwtVdnQ0hjyOiS2X/edit?usp=share_link&ouid=115253910051197093363&rtpof=true&sd=true
  • Options
    GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,488
    Scott_xP said:

    @Smyth_Chris

    Brutal interview with Mel Stride on Sky in which he had to deny that Sunak might quit early, saying the PM will "absolutely" lead the Tories into the election

    Still not clear how the Conservatives get on the front foot again after D Day debacle

    At this point it’s probably keeping things tight and hope Labour make an unforced error of their own.
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,084
    edited June 9

    Jonathan said:

    Curse of the new thread - in answer to nico:

    Parties aside, I think the Tories handled Covid OK. They protected millions of private sector jobs (whilst the public sector was still rightly getting its salaries and pensions - plus overtime). The process for getting the vaccines in place was one which undoubtedly delivered.

    The only difference I can recall from Labour was that Starmer would have locked us down for another Christmas.

    I think the Government have handled Ukraine very well.

    Not that anyone remembers, but the Government handled the resulting rise in energy prices as well as it could afford to do, with large-scale energy bill subsidies.

    This government came to power on the basis of investing in areas that had for generations voted Labour, in the expectation that they would finally get to see some cash. Sadly. Covid and Ukraine took all that money and more. The one saving grace is that if Corbyn had won in 2019, he would have already spent all the cash needed to get us through these two crises. God alone knows how we would have managed. In all likelihood, we wuld have had no money for furlough and would be struggling with millions more unemployed.

    One area where this Government does not blow its own trumpet is in jobs creation. They have an especially good case on youth unemployment - this is at low levels that prevous Labour governments could only dream about. When Labour says "What have you done for our young?", the answer is "Ensured they have jobs."

    Each of these testing situations was a once-in-a-generation challenge. The government handled them as well as could have been expected. More importantly, I don't see a cigarette paper between how the Government responded - and how Labour says it would have handled things. Those desperate for change - you've effectively had a Labour government for the past five years. Prepare to be very disappointed.

    I understand why you have to spin this complex yarn, but if the events of the last few weeks have demonstrated anything it is that there is a competency gap at the heart of Sunak's number ten.
    Complex yarn? Pick it apart then.
    For example, you brushed over the two decisive events of the past five years that originated in number 10.

    1) The catastrophic economic impact of the Truss premiership
    2) The fundamental disrespect number 10 showed the nation (and HM) whilst they partied through COVID.

    The problem with the D-Day thing is that it's part of a pattern with this government. Party first, country second.

  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,356
    eek said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @Smyth_Chris

    Brutal interview with Mel Stride on Sky in which he had to deny that Sunak might quit early, saying the PM will "absolutely" lead the Tories into the election

    Still not clear how the Conservatives get on the front foot again after D Day debacle

    I can't work out how the idea that Rishi is going to quit early has entered the conversation...
    He has been hiding in a fridge since Thursday. Rumours abhor a vacuum...
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 25,319

    Still not too late for CON to make a comeback to keep it to LAB maj 30 👍

    It happened in 1992. Here is a brief extract from the BBC's coverage showing a very posh-sounding Tony Blair and Ken Livingstone disagreeing on how Labour threw it away. It might surprise many that it is Ken who pinpoints tax increases.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MW9YQf6rRE8
  • Options
    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,105
    Scott_xP said:

    @Smyth_Chris

    Brutal interview with Mel Stride on Sky in which he had to deny that Sunak might quit early, saying the PM will "absolutely" lead the Tories into the election

    Still not clear how the Conservatives get on the front foot again after D Day debacle

    Redolent of the 1983 when Labour released a statement that it was their “unanimous view” that Foot was still the leader. Shambolic.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,864

    Farooq said:

    On topic: we should have a GE-specific competition where each person who wants to take part gets to contribute a question.

    If this appeals, I'll start:
    In how many seats will the Reform vote exceed the Conservative vote?
    Judging criteria: 20 points for the correct answer, 19 for 1 out, and so on to a minimum of 0

    Questions should be GE-related, so answerable in the hours and days immediately after 10pm on 4th July.

    If there's enough interest (say at least ten questions) I'll happy to administer it. Get your questions in today, but don't worry about the answers yet.

    First seat to declare a Conservative win.
    I went for time as I think it's an easier thing to work from. First seat has too many differing factors
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,559
    ToryJim said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    And thanks BenPointer for the update.

    Us laggards have gone off topic very quickly.

    Not a problem, I did the update partly because I thought RCS might be struggling for headers with TSE out of action.

    Good to see TSE up and running (PB-wise at least) again.
    The downside of being home, I no longer have access to any morphine,
    Well not legal access. I’m sure you’d be able to locate an opiate entrepreneur.
    Diamorphine at that….
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,926
    Farooq said:

    On topic: we should have a GE-specific competition where each person who wants to take part gets to contribute a question.

    If this appeals, I'll start:
    In how many seats will the Reform vote exceed the Conservative vote?
    Judging criteria: 20 points for the correct answer, 19 for 1 out, and so on to a minimum of 0

    Questions should be GE-related, so answerable in the hours and days immediately after 10pm on 4th July.

    If there's enough interest (say at least ten questions) I'll happy to administer it. Get your questions in today, but don't worry about the answers yet.

    Another interesting question would be "in how many seats will Labour come third (or lower)?"
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,997
    Michael Mosley body found in a cave on the island in Greece
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,084
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Curse of the new thread - in answer to nico:

    Parties aside, I think the Tories handled Covid OK. They protected millions of private sector jobs (whilst the public sector was still rightly getting its salaries and pensions - plus overtime). The process for getting the vaccines in place was one which undoubtedly delivered.

    The only difference I can recall from Labour was that Starmer would have locked us down for another Christmas.

    I think the Government have handled Ukraine very well.

    Not that anyone remembers, but the Government handled the resulting rise in energy prices as well as it could afford to do, with large-scale energy bill subsidies.

    This government came to power on the basis of investing in areas that had for generations voted Labour, in the expectation that they would finally get to see some cash. Sadly. Covid and Ukraine took all that money and more. The one saving grace is that if Corbyn had won in 2019, he would have already spent all the cash needed to get us through these two crises. God alone knows how we would have managed. In all likelihood, we wuld have had no money for furlough and would be struggling with millions more unemployed.

    One area where this Government does not blow its own trumpet is in jobs creation. They have an especially good case on youth unemployment - this is at low levels that prevous Labour governments could only dream about. When Labour says "What have you done for our young?", the answer is "Ensured they have jobs."

    Each of these testing situations was a once-in-a-generation challenge. The government handled them as well as could have been expected. More importantly, I don't see a cigarette paper between how the Government responded - and how Labour says it would have handled things. Those desperate for change - you've effectively had a Labour government for the past five years. Prepare to be very disappointed.

    I understand why you have to spin this complex yarn, but if the events of the last few weeks have demonstrated anything it is that there is a competency gap at the heart of Sunak's number ten.
    Complex yarn? Pick it apart then.
    For example, you brushed over the two decisive events of the past five years that originated in number 10.

    1) The catastrophic economic impact of the Truss premiership
    2) The fundamental disrespect number 10 showed the nation (and HM) whilst they partied through COVID.

    The problem with the D-Day thing is that it's part of a pattern with this government. Party first, country second.

    PS It did not help the Tories cause that they made big promises on Taxes, Immigration, Levelling up and the NHS (I could go on) that they very visibly failed to deliver.

    It makes it very hard for any current promises to be believed.
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,203
    Farooq said:

    On topic: we should have a GE-specific competition where each person who wants to take part gets to contribute a question.

    If this appeals, I'll start:
    In how many seats will the Reform vote exceed the Conservative vote?
    Judging criteria: 20 points for the correct answer, 19 for 1 out, and so on to a minimum of 0

    Questions should be GE-related, so answerable in the hours and days immediately after 10pm on 4th July.

    If there's enough interest (say at least ten questions) I'll happy to administer it. Get your questions in today, but don't worry about the answers yet.

    Narrowest winning vote margin in any constitiuency.

    Biggest winning vote margin in any constitiuency (excluding Mr Speaker).
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 32,967
    edited June 9

    Michael Mosley body found in a cave on the island in Greece

    A body, Big_G. Very sad, whoever it is.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,761
    2019 election declaration times by constituency:

    https://electionresults.parliament.uk/general-elections/4/declaration-times

    What do we reckon is the first Tory hold? Remember there’s boundary changes, so the seats won’t match exactly.

    North Swindon (maj16k)
    Brokbourne (maj 20k)
    Rayleigh and Wickford (Mark Francois) (maj 31k)
    Bracknell (maj 20k)

    Were all before 2am last time.
  • Options
    GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,488

    Farooq said:

    On topic: we should have a GE-specific competition where each person who wants to take part gets to contribute a question.

    If this appeals, I'll start:
    In how many seats will the Reform vote exceed the Conservative vote?
    Judging criteria: 20 points for the correct answer, 19 for 1 out, and so on to a minimum of 0

    Questions should be GE-related, so answerable in the hours and days immediately after 10pm on 4th July.

    If there's enough interest (say at least ten questions) I'll happy to administer it. Get your questions in today, but don't worry about the answers yet.

    First seat to declare a Conservative win.
    Largest swing in an individual seat would be interesting but I think the boundary changes make it too complicated.

    How about:

    Number of party leaders standing who win a seat? Bonus points for picking who, as well.

  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 11,878

    Curse of the new thread - in answer to nico:

    Parties aside, I think the Tories handled Covid OK. They protected millions of private sector jobs (whilst the public sector was still rightly getting its salaries and pensions - plus overtime). The process for getting the vaccines in place was one which undoubtedly delivered.

    The only difference I can recall from Labour was that Starmer would have locked us down for another Christmas.

    I think the Government have handled Ukraine very well.

    Not that anyone remembers, but the Government handled the resulting rise in energy prices as well as it could afford to do, with large-scale energy bill subsidies.

    This government came to power on the basis of investing in areas that had for generations voted Labour, in the expectation that they would finally get to see some cash. Sadly. Covid and Ukraine took all that money and more. The one saving grace is that if Corbyn had won in 2019, he would have already spent all the cash needed to get us through these two crises. God alone knows how we would have managed. In all likelihood, we would have had no money for furlough and be struggling with millions more unemployed.

    One area where this Government does not blow its own trumpet is in jobs creation. They have an especially good case on youth unemployment - this is at low levels that prevous Labour governments could only dream about. When Labour says "What have you done for our young?", the answer is "Ensured they have jobs."

    Each of these testing situations was a once-in-a-generation challenge. The government handled them as well as could have been expected. More importantly, I don't see a cigarette paper between how the Government responded - and how Labour says it would have handled things. Those desperate for change - you've effectively had a Labour government for the past five years. Prepare to be very disappointed.

    It's unfortunate we won't get to see the results of the Covid inquiry until much later, but I think there will be a couple of stern words said about preparedness and the speed of response. It was very, very clear by February that the government needed to do something but Boris delayed for ideological reasons. He downplayed the severity, setting the wrong tone. These failures cost lives and I expect the report will say as much. This cultural blinkeredness continued, of course, through to the Downing Street parties. Further, I also think "eat out to help out" will attract some criticism for pushing up cases and for damaging the health messaging.

    The preparedness thing will be a blame spread across many more people, of course.

    The purpose here is to detail the potential mistakes, because your assessment of "ok" is probably correct, but you only gave positive examples. It we're going to add narrative to that judgement, we need to talk about the bad as well as the good.
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,997

    Michael Mosley body found in a cave on the island in Greece

    A body, Big_G. Very sad, whoever it is.
    Identified as Michael Mosley by the Greek authorities according to Sky
  • Options
    EabhalEabhal Posts: 6,669
    edited June 9
    Sandpit said:

    2019 election declaration times by constituency:

    https://electionresults.parliament.uk/general-elections/4/declaration-times

    What do we reckon is the first Tory hold? Remember there’s boundary changes, so the seats won’t match exactly.

    North Swindon (maj16k)
    Brokbourne (maj 20k)
    Rayleigh and Wickford (Mark Francois) (maj 31k)
    Bracknell (maj 20k)

    Were all before 2am last time.

    Could be the worst 4 hours of your life, depending on the exit poll.
  • Options
    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 6,342
    So just to confirm, this is the competition that’s closed to newcomers as of months ago just because I was too busy to be on pb.com?

    It’s irksome because I predicted a Labour landslide 2 years ago ;)

    @Benpointer
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,926
    Breaking - sounds like Moseley's body has been found
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 64,200

    Jonathan said:

    Curse of the new thread - in answer to nico:

    Parties aside, I think the Tories handled Covid OK. They protected millions of private sector jobs (whilst the public sector was still rightly getting its salaries and pensions - plus overtime). The process for getting the vaccines in place was one which undoubtedly delivered.

    The only difference I can recall from Labour was that Starmer would have locked us down for another Christmas.

    I think the Government have handled Ukraine very well.

    Not that anyone remembers, but the Government handled the resulting rise in energy prices as well as it could afford to do, with large-scale energy bill subsidies.

    This government came to power on the basis of investing in areas that had for generations voted Labour, in the expectation that they would finally get to see some cash. Sadly. Covid and Ukraine took all that money and more. The one saving grace is that if Corbyn had won in 2019, he would have already spent all the cash needed to get us through these two crises. God alone knows how we would have managed. In all likelihood, we wuld have had no money for furlough and would be struggling with millions more unemployed.

    One area where this Government does not blow its own trumpet is in jobs creation. They have an especially good case on youth unemployment - this is at low levels that prevous Labour governments could only dream about. When Labour says "What have you done for our young?", the answer is "Ensured they have jobs."

    Each of these testing situations was a once-in-a-generation challenge. The government handled them as well as could have been expected. More importantly, I don't see a cigarette paper between how the Government responded - and how Labour says it would have handled things. Those desperate for change - you've effectively had a Labour government for the past five years. Prepare to be very disappointed.

    I understand why you have to spin this complex yarn, but if the events of the last few weeks have demonstrated anything it is that there is a competency gap at the heart of Sunak's number ten.
    Complex yarn? Pick it apart then.
    They made a huge hash of HS2.
    They lack any coherent industrial strategy.
    Levelling up is a national joke.
    They have continued to eviscerate local government.
    They're rubbish on housing.
    They've failed to make any practical case for Brexit, which continues to be a nagging distraction and drag on the economy.

    And I haven't even detailed the financial and corruption scandals.

    Would Labour have been any better ?
    Counterfactuals are hard, since what parties say in opposition is rarely an accurate predictor of what they do in government.
    Possibly not.
    But it's also on possible they'll make a slightly better fist of things this time round. Not holding my breath, though.
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,615
    FPT

    Icarus said:

    When will someone tell us about the £40bn pa available from changing the rules on the Asset Purchase Facility i at the Bank of England?

    https://www.ft.com/content/5209be99-3f6b-4ba3-b3f3-49b544f71c28

    Paywalled
    Subject
    • FT article entitled "The Bank of England is misusing its fiscal powers"
    Archive copies IAS summary (generated by AI?) @Luckyguy1983 , is this what you've been going on about?
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 32,967
    Farooq said:

    On topic: we should have a GE-specific competition where each person who wants to take part gets to contribute a question.

    If this appeals, I'll start:
    In how many seats will the Reform vote exceed the Conservative vote?
    Judging criteria: 20 points for the correct answer, 19 for 1 out, and so on to a minimum of 0

    Questions should be GE-related, so answerable in the hours and days immediately after 10pm on 4th July.

    If there's enough interest (say at least ten questions) I'll happy to administer it. Get your questions in today, but don't worry about the answers yet.

    I agree, this would be fun to do. However, if everybody who enters contributes a question you could end up with 80+ questions!

    Why don't you pull together 10 questions from suggestions, agree them with TSE and publish a header a week or so before the election asking for entries?

    (I'd be happy to do it but I don't want to pinch your idea.)
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    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,295

    Royal funeral theory: contra the claim that the Tories would refuse a request for an early election because a funeral during the campaign would boost them, the response would be: if you refuse, the fact of your refusal will leak during the campaign. That really would have the potential to reduce them to nul seats.

    The Statty Fyoonz Double Bill theory does fit all of the available facts and handsomely explains the little dickhead's otherwise mystifying self-selected immolation on July 4.
  • Options
    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 6,342
    edited June 9

    Foxy said:

    Still not too late for CON to make a comeback to keep it to LAB maj 30 👍

    My prediction of Lab 20 seats short hasn't aged well.
    Dave showed in Normandy he is more prime ministerial than Starmer.
    He did and he was.

    Sorry @TSE but he was the future once and that ain’t now.

    Of all the most ridiculous things I have ever seen proposed in politics it’s that PM Sunak will stand down 3 week before the election.

    Now pull yourselves together. (Channelling my inner Mrs Thatcher there!)

    xx
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,926

    Ghedebrav said:

    I love that Waterhouse painting.

    I can’t remember entirely my prediction answers but iirc was quite bearish on Labour so suspect I’m already out of the running.

    If I can remember how to post the spreadie of everyone's predictions without doxxing myself, I'll do so.

    Edit: I think this is it: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12nbHasbPER7LGhpAxwtVdnQ0hjyOiS2X/edit?usp=share_link&ouid=115253910051197093363&rtpof=true&sd=true
    I see I am one of those who got the 11% spot on, but suspect my predictions will fall apart in the US as I gambled on neither Biden nor Trump becoming the candidate.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 64,200

    Foxy said:

    Still not too late for CON to make a comeback to keep it to LAB maj 30 👍

    My prediction of Lab 20 seats short hasn't aged well.
    There's a game changer yet to come.

    If Nadine Dorries is right then then the Tories as the largest party in a hung parliament is nailed on and there's huge value in backing a Tory majority.

    I have always said that Cameron was popped into the Lords and into a senior ministerial post for a reason.

    I thought maybe it was to replace Sunak at an earlier stage.

    Rumours around tonight that Sunak’s about to fall on his sword.

    There are no MPs - only Ministers.

    If Sunak does resign, any replacement would have to come from within Ministerial ranks…


    https://x.com/NadineDorries/status/1799564861803819256

    Dave showed in Normandy he is more prime ministerial than Starmer.
    Good one.

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    FarooqFarooq Posts: 11,878

    Farooq said:

    On topic: we should have a GE-specific competition where each person who wants to take part gets to contribute a question.

    If this appeals, I'll start:
    In how many seats will the Reform vote exceed the Conservative vote?
    Judging criteria: 20 points for the correct answer, 19 for 1 out, and so on to a minimum of 0

    Questions should be GE-related, so answerable in the hours and days immediately after 10pm on 4th July.

    If there's enough interest (say at least ten questions) I'll happy to administer it. Get your questions in today, but don't worry about the answers yet.

    I agree, this would be fun to do. However, if everybody who enters contributes a question you could end up with 80+ questions!

    Why don't you pull together 10 questions from suggestions, agree them with TSE and publish a header a week or so before the election asking for entries?

    (I'd be happy to do it but I don't want to pinch your idea.)
    This is why I'm seeking questions today only. After today, the idea is we have a set of questions and anybody is free to answer them.

    Questions so far, shout if I've missed any:

    Farooq: How many Reform > Con seats?
    eek: time of first Tory win (based on the time the words - and XYZ (the Tory candidate) is the winner)
    Stuartinromford: First seat to declare a Conservative win.
    IanB2: in how many seats will Labour come third (or lower)
    SandyRentool: Narrowest winning vote margin in any constitiuency (I've just taken your first suggestion)
    Ghedebrav: Number of party leaders standing who win a seat
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,010
    RIP Michael Mosley
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,997
    edited June 9
    Heathener said:

    Foxy said:

    Still not too late for CON to make a comeback to keep it to LAB maj 30 👍

    My prediction of Lab 20 seats short hasn't aged well.
    Dave showed in Normandy he is more prime ministerial than Starmer.
    He did and he was.

    Sorry @TSE but he was the future once and that ain’t now.

    Of all the most ridiculous things I have ever seen proposed in politics it’s that PM Sunak will stand down 3 week before the election.

    Now pull yourselves together. (Channelling my inner Mrs Thatcher there!)

    xx
    I would just say that there could be a mental health issue here for Sunak when the enormity of his error, which by the way will be his legacy, kicks in and he simply resigns

    I think it is unlikely but not impossible

    And by the way I know you were interested, but it looks like the seagull chick has not survived as the parents are silent and our security cameras picked up the fox actively engaged in the small area where it was

    Sad for those of us who care for animals but as the RSPB told me when I phoned them yesterday it is natural selection unfortunately
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,010

    Foxy said:

    Still not too late for CON to make a comeback to keep it to LAB maj 30 👍

    My prediction of Lab 20 seats short hasn't aged well.
    Dave showed in Normandy he is more prime ministerial than SUNAK.
    FTFY
  • Options
    EabhalEabhal Posts: 6,669
    edited June 9
    Dura_Ace said:

    Royal funeral theory: contra the claim that the Tories would refuse a request for an early election because a funeral during the campaign would boost them, the response would be: if you refuse, the fact of your refusal will leak during the campaign. That really would have the potential to reduce them to nul seats.

    The Statty Fyoonz Double Bill theory does fit all of the available facts and handsomely explains the little dickhead's otherwise mystifying self-selected immolation on July 4.
    Fake news, Kate wouldn't get a state. Even Captain Tom didn't.
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    Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,518
    Pro_Rata said:

    Sandpit said:

    1st Tory seat hold will make me very happy.

    Do I remember correctly from 1997 that 75 Labour MPs were returned before the first Tory? Obviously not the end proportion, but I wonder if it will feel.like ELE averted by the v end of the night or whether we'll get some speedier shire counts in.
    I seem to remember over the 97 to 2005 elections PB used to play election cricket. See what score labour made before the tories won their first seat. See if they could reach the century!
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    FarooqFarooq Posts: 11,878
    IanB2 said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    I love that Waterhouse painting.

    I can’t remember entirely my prediction answers but iirc was quite bearish on Labour so suspect I’m already out of the running.

    If I can remember how to post the spreadie of everyone's predictions without doxxing myself, I'll do so.

    Edit: I think this is it: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12nbHasbPER7LGhpAxwtVdnQ0hjyOiS2X/edit?usp=share_link&ouid=115253910051197093363&rtpof=true&sd=true
    I see I am one of those who got the 11% spot on, but suspect my predictions will fall apart in the US as I gambled on neither Biden nor Trump becoming the candidate.
    The actual correct answer was 10.7%, by the way. So CD13 gets 10 points for being 0.6pp off, but the numerous people who were 0.7pp off on 10%, they get nothing :lol:
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,356
    The BBC Daily Farage blowing the dog whistle really, really loud this morning
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,761
    IanB2 said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    I love that Waterhouse painting.

    I can’t remember entirely my prediction answers but iirc was quite bearish on Labour so suspect I’m already out of the running.

    If I can remember how to post the spreadie of everyone's predictions without doxxing myself, I'll do so.

    Edit: I think this is it: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12nbHasbPER7LGhpAxwtVdnQ0hjyOiS2X/edit?usp=share_link&ouid=115253910051197093363&rtpof=true&sd=true
    I see I am one of those who got the 11% spot on, but suspect my predictions will fall apart in the US as I gambled on neither Biden nor Trump becoming the candidate.
    There’s still a few weeks for the American parties to see sense.

    Either one that does, will surely be rewarded in November, but they both seem totally wedded to the most unsuitable candidates in history.
  • Options
    pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,431
    edited June 9
    Sandpit said:

    2019 election declaration times by constituency:

    https://electionresults.parliament.uk/general-elections/4/declaration-times

    What do we reckon is the first Tory hold? Remember there’s boundary changes, so the seats won’t match exactly.

    North Swindon (maj16k)
    Brokbourne (maj 20k)
    Rayleigh and Wickford (Mark Francois) (maj 31k)
    Bracknell (maj 20k)

    Were all before 2am last time.

    Broxbourne is a strong bet. In Hertfordshire but with a South Essex kind of political bent to it - if memory serves the BNP managed to get a foothold on the borough council back in the day, and it's currently dominated by the Tories despite everything - and thus one of the more challenging Labour targets, even under present circumstances. If the Tories can't hold that one then they're coming in under 100 seats.
  • Options
    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 6,342
    edited June 9
    Anyway, the prediction I made May 23rd was this:

    Lab 42.5%
    Con 28.5%
    LibDem 9%
    Green 5%
    Lab majority 185

    I’ll amend it slightly now that Farage has decided to lose for the 8th time.

    Lab 40.5%
    Con 26.5%
    Reform 10%
    LibDem 11%
    Green 6%

    Labour majority: 172

    LibDems 39-40 seats
    Reform 0 seats
  • Options
    PedestrianRockPedestrianRock Posts: 291
    A lot of people saying crossover won’t happen now, based on yesterday’s polls of REFUK on 12% ish

    The fieldwork for the most recent polls is largely pre D Day Gate, and pre Farage debate appearance.

    I still expect the Reform bounce in the next few days’ polls and will be holding my bets on them accordingly, until Tues/Weds at least.
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,203
    Farooq said:

    IanB2 said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    I love that Waterhouse painting.

    I can’t remember entirely my prediction answers but iirc was quite bearish on Labour so suspect I’m already out of the running.

    If I can remember how to post the spreadie of everyone's predictions without doxxing myself, I'll do so.

    Edit: I think this is it: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12nbHasbPER7LGhpAxwtVdnQ0hjyOiS2X/edit?usp=share_link&ouid=115253910051197093363&rtpof=true&sd=true
    I see I am one of those who got the 11% spot on, but suspect my predictions will fall apart in the US as I gambled on neither Biden nor Trump becoming the candidate.
    The actual correct answer was 10.7%, by the way. So CD13 gets 10 points for being 0.6pp off, but the numerous people who were 0.7pp off on 10%, they get nothing :lol:
    As a 10%er I demand a recount!

    Mind, I don't think my NOM prediction is looking like a winner.
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 11,878

    Heathener said:

    Foxy said:

    Still not too late for CON to make a comeback to keep it to LAB maj 30 👍

    My prediction of Lab 20 seats short hasn't aged well.
    Dave showed in Normandy he is more prime ministerial than Starmer.
    He did and he was.

    Sorry @TSE but he was the future once and that ain’t now.

    Of all the most ridiculous things I have ever seen proposed in politics it’s that PM Sunak will stand down 3 week before the election.

    Now pull yourselves together. (Channelling my inner Mrs Thatcher there!)

    xx
    I would just say that there could be a mental health issue here for Sunak when the enormity of his error, which by the way will be his legacy, kicks in and he simply resigns

    I think it is unlikely but not impossible

    And by the way I know you were interested, but it looks like the seagull chick has not survived as the parents are silent and our security cameras picked up the fox actively engaged in the small area where it was

    Sad for those of us who care for animals but as the RSPB told me when I phoned them yesterday it is natural selection unfortunately
    Foxes are animals too! They need to eat.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,997
    Scott_xP said:

    The BBC Daily Farage blowing the dog whistle really, really loud this morning

    You constantly attack Sunak but following this week he is over and far more worrying us Farage and the rise of the right across Europe
  • Options
    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 6,342

    Heathener said:

    Foxy said:

    Still not too late for CON to make a comeback to keep it to LAB maj 30 👍

    My prediction of Lab 20 seats short hasn't aged well.
    Dave showed in Normandy he is more prime ministerial than Starmer.
    He did and he was.

    Sorry @TSE but he was the future once and that ain’t now.

    Of all the most ridiculous things I have ever seen proposed in politics it’s that PM Sunak will stand down 3 week before the election.

    Now pull yourselves together. (Channelling my inner Mrs Thatcher there!)

    xx
    I would just say that there could be a mental health issue here for Sunak when the enormity of his error, which by the way will be his legacy, kicks in and he simply resigns

    I think it is unlikely but not impossible

    And by the way I know you were interested, but it looks like the seagull chick has not survived as the parents are silent and our security cameras picked up the fox actively engaged in the small area where it was

    Sad for those of us who care for animals but as the RSPB told me when I phoned them yesterday it is natural selection unfortunately
    Oh gosh. So sorry to hear about that.

    I love watching the David Attenborough programmes but gosh, yes, nature can be cruel.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 57,062
    Dura_Ace said:

    Royal funeral theory: contra the claim that the Tories would refuse a request for an early election because a funeral during the campaign would boost them, the response would be: if you refuse, the fact of your refusal will leak during the campaign. That really would have the potential to reduce them to nul seats.

    The Statty Fyoonz Double Bill theory does fit all of the available facts and handsomely explains the little dickhead's otherwise mystifying self-selected immolation on July 4.
    It's far more like to be cock-up rather than conspiracy.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 32,967
    edited June 9
    Heathener said:

    So just to confirm, this is the competition that’s closed to newcomers as of months ago just because I was too busy to be on pb.com?

    It’s irksome because I predicted a Labour landslide 2 years ago ;)

    @Benpointer

    Well yes, sorry, it's closed to newcomers because some of the questions now have known answers, and for a number of the others we clearly have a closer perspective, so it should be easier to be more accurate.

    But if you want to post answers to questions 4. to 10. please do. I'll keep a sideline record of your answers (and anybody else's too). You won't win the competition but if you get 4. to 10. right, think of the kudos!
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 57,062

    RIP Michael Mosley

    That's very sad. I liked him a lot. Clearly, he was struggling with deep-rooted demons that got the better of him.

    Poor guy.
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    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,295
    edited June 9
    Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    I love that Waterhouse painting.

    I can’t remember entirely my prediction answers but iirc was quite bearish on Labour so suspect I’m already out of the running.

    If I can remember how to post the spreadie of everyone's predictions without doxxing myself, I'll do so.

    Edit: I think this is it: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12nbHasbPER7LGhpAxwtVdnQ0hjyOiS2X/edit?usp=share_link&ouid=115253910051197093363&rtpof=true&sd=true
    I see I am one of those who got the 11% spot on, but suspect my predictions will fall apart in the US as I gambled on neither Biden nor Trump becoming the candidate.
    There’s still a few weeks for the American parties to see sense.

    Either one that does, will surely be rewarded in November, but they both seem totally wedded to the most unsuitable candidates in history.
    George Wallace was probably worse than both of them but happily he got shot on the campaign.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 57,062
    Heathener said:

    Anyway, the prediction I made May 23rd was this:

    Lab 42.5%
    Con 28.5%
    LibDem 9%
    Green 5%
    Lab majority 185

    I’ll amend it slightly now that Farage has decided to lose for the 8th time.

    Lab 40.5%
    Con 26.5%
    Reform 10%
    LibDem 11%
    Green 6%

    Labour majority: 172

    LibDems 39-40 seats
    Reform 0 seats

    Essentially, that's where I'm at in voteshares. Maybe Greens a tad high, and I expect LDs to get to 12-13%.
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,356

    Scott_xP said:

    The BBC Daily Farage blowing the dog whistle really, really loud this morning

    You constantly attack Sunak but following this week he is over and far more worrying us Farage and the rise of the right across Europe
    Richi is still the PM for now, so he gets the stick for his cockups.

    It is worrying that many of the same people who propelled him to the job would be happy with Nigel Fucking Farage instead, but that's a future problem.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,926

    RIP Michael Mosley

    That's very sad. I liked him a lot. Clearly, he was struggling with deep-rooted demons that got the better of him.

    Poor guy.
    Demons? I'd guess that he started to get heatstroke, hiking in such heat, went to shelter in the cave, but either ran out of or had no water, and got worse rather than better.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,010
    I can't even remember my predictions, save for November 21st (I think), clearly a loser :lol:
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,084
    The Tories need to eviscerate Farage. It's late, but not too late. He does not represent the future of right wing politics. Come on Sunak, what have you got left to lose, do the right thing.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 28,289
    Sandpit said:

    2019 election declaration times by constituency:

    https://electionresults.parliament.uk/general-elections/4/declaration-times

    What do we reckon is the first Tory hold? Remember there’s boundary changes, so the seats won’t match exactly.

    North Swindon (maj16k)
    Brokbourne (maj 20k)
    Rayleigh and Wickford (Mark Francois) (maj 31k)
    Bracknell (maj 20k)

    Were all before 2am last time.

    Running totals spreadsheet.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1mVF_IPhgNgMar-oH3Q4XhWJnpVt4UiECLkFhDIXwZlY/edit?gid=0#gid=0
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    mickydroymickydroy Posts: 271

    Scott_xP said:

    The BBC Daily Farage blowing the dog whistle really, really loud this morning

    You constantly attack Sunak but following this week he is over and far more worrying us Farage and the rise of the right across Europe
    100% agree with that sentiment
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    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 15,249
    eek said:

    Farooq said:

    On topic: we should have a GE-specific competition where each person who wants to take part gets to contribute a question.

    If this appeals, I'll start:
    In how many seats will the Reform vote exceed the Conservative vote?
    Judging criteria: 20 points for the correct answer, 19 for 1 out, and so on to a minimum of 0

    Questions should be GE-related, so answerable in the hours and days immediately after 10pm on 4th July.

    If there's enough interest (say at least ten questions) I'll happy to administer it. Get your questions in today, but don't worry about the answers yet.

    First seat to declare a Conservative win.
    I went for time as I think it's an easier thing to work from. First seat has too many differing factors
    Time is probably more fun as well, because it adds turnout as a moving part.
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,356
    @SeanJonesKC

    Today in Sunakland: Rumours circulate that he has cancelled his media appearances and that he may be about to resign, with the inevitable effect that once everyone has got themselves excited at the prospect of a further huge drama, they'll resent him even more when he fails to go
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    TimSTimS Posts: 10,634
    edited June 9
    Largest seat majority to be overturned
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,997
    Scott_xP said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The BBC Daily Farage blowing the dog whistle really, really loud this morning

    You constantly attack Sunak but following this week he is over and far more worrying us Farage and the rise of the right across Europe
    Richi is still the PM for now, so he gets the stick for his cockups.

    It is worrying that many of the same people who propelled him to the job would be happy with Nigel Fucking Farage instead, but that's a future problem.
    I am not at all sure Farage will win in Clacton and it is the one place tactical voting for the conservative would send a clear message to him and Reform
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 64,200
    Farooq said:

    Curse of the new thread - in answer to nico:

    Parties aside, I think the Tories handled Covid OK. They protected millions of private sector jobs (whilst the public sector was still rightly getting its salaries and pensions - plus overtime). The process for getting the vaccines in place was one which undoubtedly delivered.

    The only difference I can recall from Labour was that Starmer would have locked us down for another Christmas.

    I think the Government have handled Ukraine very well.

    Not that anyone remembers, but the Government handled the resulting rise in energy prices as well as it could afford to do, with large-scale energy bill subsidies.

    This government came to power on the basis of investing in areas that had for generations voted Labour, in the expectation that they would finally get to see some cash. Sadly. Covid and Ukraine took all that money and more. The one saving grace is that if Corbyn had won in 2019, he would have already spent all the cash needed to get us through these two crises. God alone knows how we would have managed. In all likelihood, we would have had no money for furlough and be struggling with millions more unemployed.

    One area where this Government does not blow its own trumpet is in jobs creation. They have an especially good case on youth unemployment - this is at low levels that prevous Labour governments could only dream about. When Labour says "What have you done for our young?", the answer is "Ensured they have jobs."

    Each of these testing situations was a once-in-a-generation challenge. The government handled them as well as could have been expected. More importantly, I don't see a cigarette paper between how the Government responded - and how Labour says it would have handled things. Those desperate for change - you've effectively had a Labour government for the past five years. Prepare to be very disappointed.

    It's unfortunate we won't get to see the results of the Covid inquiry until much later, but I think there will be a couple of stern words said about preparedness and the speed of response. It was very, very clear by February that the government needed to do something but Boris delayed for ideological reasons. He downplayed the severity, setting the wrong tone. These failures cost lives and I expect the report will say as much. This cultural blinkeredness continued, of course, through to the Downing Street parties. Further, I also think "eat out to help out" will attract some criticism for pushing up cases and for damaging the health messaging.

    The preparedness thing will be a blame spread across many more people, of course.

    The purpose here is to detail the potential mistakes, because your assessment of "ok" is probably correct, but you only gave positive examples. It we're going to add narrative to that judgement, we need to talk about the bad as well as the good.
    I give them something of a pass on that, not because it was handled well, but because it's unclear anyone else would have done massively better on that.
    A 'perfect' response might significantly have altered the course of the UK pandemic, but given the infectivity of the virus, a bit better management wouldn't have done so.

    The real failures IMO were the huge amounts of money blown on failing to transition quickly from expensive and slow PCR 'track and trace' policy to lateral flow tests; on were clearly corrupt contracts for PPE; and on fraudulent loans and the failure to recover significant amounts.

    We'd still be financially stretched, but we might be anywhere between 50 and 100 £bn better off.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,375

    Farooq said:

    On topic: we should have a GE-specific competition where each person who wants to take part gets to contribute a question.

    If this appeals, I'll start:
    In how many seats will the Reform vote exceed the Conservative vote?
    Judging criteria: 20 points for the correct answer, 19 for 1 out, and so on to a minimum of 0

    Questions should be GE-related, so answerable in the hours and days immediately after 10pm on 4th July.

    If there's enough interest (say at least ten questions) I'll happy to administer it. Get your questions in today, but don't worry about the answers yet.

    First seat to declare a Conservative win.
    In 1997 it was Brownhills-Aldridge wasn’t it?
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    FarooqFarooq Posts: 11,878
    TimS said:

    Largest seat majority to be overturned

    Tricky one to judge with the boundary changes
This discussion has been closed.