That's very sad. I liked him a lot. Clearly, he was struggling with deep-rooted demons that got the better of him.
Poor guy.
Demons? I'd guess that he started to get heatstroke, hiking in such heat, went to shelter in the cave, but either ran out of or had no water, and got worse rather than better.
The local police were working on the assumption he'd got lost and had a fall, which seems possibly correct. ..The body - which has yet to be formally identified - was found at a small cliff on a rocky hill north-east of the village of Pedi, near Agia Marina beach...
It's a small island, but just big enough for it to be hard to find someone if you don't know exactly where to look.
A really sad story.
Yes, that's possible.
I just find his behaviour odd. Going out without water or a phone. In the peak heat of the day. With an umbrella. And then going missing.
I could be wrong and it could be a tragic accident, of course.
The umbrella makes perfect sense in hot weather. You can spot an Australian because they are covered up head to toe, and aren't embarrassed by a massive hat. Short sleeves a big no-no when bushwalking.
Some people use a full sized umbrella instead of a walking stick
Sunak has somehow done worse than I thought he would. He's conspired to make 2017 look positively strategic.
For an intelligent chap, he sure makes a lot of very dumb decisions.
Being intelligent does not make you into a politician
If it did we may have a better society and future
Do you think part of the problem may be down to him not having been an MP for all that long? You feel that a more experienced Politician would have sussed straight away that the fixture clash was a huge banana skin waiting to be slipped on.
In that sense, it may have been innocence rather than arrogance that led to the mistake.
I do agree and whilst he is pleasant and certainly intelligent, he has no political antenna and worse does not have advisers either that he listens to or are simply incompetent
Sunak has somehow done worse than I thought he would. He's conspired to make 2017 look positively strategic.
For an intelligent chap, he sure makes a lot of very dumb decisions.
Being intelligent does not make you into a politician
If it did we may have a better society and future
Do you think part of the problem may be down to him not having been an MP for all that long? You feel that a more experienced Politician would have sussed straight away that the fixture clash was a huge banana skin waiting to be slipped on.
In that sense, it may have been innocence rather than arrogance that led to the mistake.
It shouldn't take much political experience to realise that not being at the D-Day ceremony with all the other world leaders during an election campaign was a blunder. It's the political equivalent of knowing which side of the road to drive on.
Some unsourced reports on Twitter that ministers have talked him put of resigning, but only if he takes a back seat in the campaign with the ministers at the front.
Maybe he really has had enough.
I don’t think that works . Hiding away will get media attention and I think that would be worse for the Tories.
I think he'd be wise to stop actively courting attention, though.
No more whizz-bang announcements, no stunts, end the presidential approach... and, most of all, try to get ITV to pull the D-day interview due to be broadcast on Wednesday.
But he should still talk to the press pack at campaign events in battleground constituencies, ideally prioritising local and regional media where possible. The whole cabinet should attend the manifesto launch. Probable leadership contenders should be encouraged to do the morning broadcast round, rather than Sunak loyalists.
There is no way of getting ITV to pull the interview that doesn’t generate even more negative publicity than the interview itself.
There’s no chance, I suppose, that all of this is Sunak channelling Frank Underwood but with the goal of a return to Silicon Valley?
You know, deliberately sabotaging the Conservative Party?
You’d have to be magnificently devious to pull it off. Not sure anyone aside from Boris Johnson has it in them.
But that pudding is distinctly over-egged. If Rishi just wanted to hand in his notice, all he had to do was call an election and campaign normally. He'd have been on track to lose handily.
To mess up this much deliberately... Either he's sold Conservative seats on the spreads, or he wants the Conservatives nuked do they can get replaced by a Proper Right Wing Party. Neither of which entirely makes sense.
So we're left with "there is no magic door, behind which the ninjas are" theory. His success has been down to some talent, some hard work, but mostly luck, bluster and being in the right place at the right time. And now his luck has run out, so the bluster isn't working, so everything is falling apart.
Rishi's misfortune is for that to be happening to him on one of the biggest stages of all.
He stood in the rain and Dday was a baffling and shitty error. Everything else is fluff, but the media have snuggled into it
It makes a boring election much more exciting
Also quite a few Remainer journalists see this as final revenge for Brexit. Sunak is copping that flak as well
Labour saying new prisons will be deemed nationally significant and so decided by ministers is good, but we'll see if that survives individual MP outrage.
There's space on the city walls for them to be displayed. As populist cruelty is de rigeur
Labour saying new prisons will be deemed nationally significant and so decided by ministers is good, but we'll see if that survives individual MP outrage.
Some unsourced reports on Twitter that ministers have talked him put of resigning, but only if he takes a back seat in the campaign with the ministers at the front.
Maybe he really has had enough.
I don’t think that works . Hiding away will get media attention and I think that would be worse for the Tories.
I think he'd be wise to stop actively courting attention, though.
No more whizz-bang announcements, no stunts, end the presidential approach... and, most of all, try to get ITV to pull the D-day interview due to be broadcast on Wednesday.
But he should still talk to the press pack at campaign events in battleground constituencies, ideally prioritising local and regional media where possible. The whole cabinet should attend the manifesto launch. Probable leadership contenders should be encouraged to do the morning broadcast round, rather than Sunak loyalists.
There is no way of getting ITV to pull the interview that doesn’t generate even more negative publicity than the interview itself.
There’s no chance, I suppose, that all of this is Sunak channelling Frank Underwood but with the goal of a return to Silicon Valley?
You know, deliberately sabotaging the Conservative Party?
You’d have to be magnificently devious to pull it off. Not sure anyone aside from Boris Johnson has it in them.
But that pudding is distinctly over-egged. If Rishi just wanted to hand in his notice, all he had to do was call an election and campaign normally. He'd have been on track to lose handily.
To mess up this much deliberately... Either he's sold Conservative seats on the spreads, or he wants the Conservatives nuked do they can get replaced by a Proper Right Wing Party. Neither of which entirely makes sense.
So we're left with "there is no magic door, behind which the ninjas are" theory. His success has been down to some talent, some hard work, but mostly luck, bluster and being in the right place at the right time. And now his luck has run out, so the bluster isn't working, so everything is falling apart.
Rishi's misfortune is for that to be happening to him on one of the biggest stages of all.
He stood in the rain and Dday was a baffling and shitty error. Everything else is fluff, but the media have snuggled into it
It makes a boring election much more exciting
Also quite a few Remainer journalists see this as final revenge for Brexit. Sunak is copping that flak as well
Very funny but last night I went to a (very, very rare for me) military shindig. Some serving and plenty of retired soldiers age range I would say (incl those serving) 25-70.
I was on a very agreeable table and a friend leaned over to me, waved at the assembled masses and said: you see all these people, these people are Reform voters.
He is a local councillor and said that there had been a lot of eastern European immigration into the area and as a result "locals" couldn't find a school or GP or whatnot for love nor money.
It surprised him (as did the enthusiasm for Brexit seven years ago) but there you are.
They are making all the same mistakes all over again. In almost 20 years they've learned nothing and forgotten nothing.
Insinuating Farage is like the "SS" is just stupid Met hyberlibz hyperbolic bullshit that just accentuates division and fuels populism.
I think it’s rather Farage who accentuates division and fuels populism!
"Populist" and "far-right " are just words that some people use about politicians who are serious about stopping mass immigration.
When you crack jokes like "SS" ordinary people hear that you think they're Nazis for wanting something done about it, so think Foxtrot Oscar in return and thus amplify their vote.
The solution is to treat them respectfully and seriously address their concerns.
Quite a shift on Sporting spreads today - Conservative seats out to 118/126. They had been selling as low as 109, and were settled around 111/119 for a long time.
I can't see any obvious explanation. Is David Cameron taking over?
There hasn't been a similar move on Betfair, but then I've been struck before by the lack of sync between the two markets. This is exploitable, if you have the time and patience.
As mentioned in @ShippersUnbound long read, we found voters are currently more likely to believe Keir Starmer than Rishi Sunak in the £2,000 tax row that dominated last weeks debate. Though a significant number don't know (Whole piece well worth a read!)
Perhaps. The more pertinent aspect is WHO the people they convince are - if you 'only' convince 20% but half of them change voting because of it and the 40% who are not convinced and DKs just stick with their vote you've effected a big shift. Campaigns aren't about overwhelming convincing, they are about targeted convincing
The conservation has just turned to Tories have cost us £13k in extra tax this parliament and everyone expects some more in the next one. Labour £2k over 4 years doesn't sound unreasonable or frightening in that context.
Of course this is unfair to the Tories, but when you are losing, life isn't fair.
The conversation is still on the beach tbf My point would remain however. What is sticking and with whom. The 13k will no more universally connect than £2094. Its not a simple binary. It never is
Look at the polls. Or what the cabinet are doing. Mel Stride is last man batting for Rishi. They had some guy not even Rishi had heard of doing the rounds yesterday who had to keep saying, no idea its all well above my pay grade.
Very funny but last night I went to a (very, very rare for me) military shindig. Some serving and plenty of retired soldiers age range I would say (incl those serving) 25-70.
I was on a very agreeable table and a friend leaned over to me, waved at the assembled masses and said: you see all these people, these people are Reform voters.
He is a local councillor and said that there had been a lot of eastern European immigration into the area and as a result "locals" couldn't find a school or GP or whatnot for love nor money.
It surprised him (as did the enthusiasm for Brexit seven years ago) but there you are.
They are making all the same mistakes all over again. In almost 20 years they've learned nothing and forgotten nothing.
Insinuating Farage is like the "SS" is just stupid Met hyberlibz hyperbolic bullshit that just accentuates division and fuels populism.
I think it’s rather Farage who accentuates division and fuels populism!
"Populist" and "far-right " are just words that some people use about politicians who are serious about stopping mass immigration.
When you crack jokes like "SS" ordinary people hear that you think they're Nazis for wanting something done about it, so think Foxtrot Oscar in return and thus amplify their vote.
The solution is to treat them respectfully and seriously address their concerns.
Which would be fine if they were discussing it rather then asking us to notice, for example, how brown and unbritish the PM is
1. Smallest majority and which seat and who. 2. First to declare and what time. 3. Smallest number of votes and which seat. 4. Exit poll numbers. 5. Numbers of winners from third place or lower 6. Number of lost deposits by 7 major parties.
Welcome Jack! By 4, the exit poll numbers closest to/furthest away from the actual result? And by 5, what if the party had never had a candidate there before?
Also you need to @Farooq (well, actually you don’t cos I’ve done it )
Parties aside, I think the Tories handled Covid OK. They protected millions of private sector jobs (whilst the public sector was still rightly getting its salaries and pensions - plus overtime). The process for getting the vaccines in place was one which undoubtedly delivered.
The only difference I can recall from Labour was that Starmer would have locked us down for another Christmas.
I think the Government have handled Ukraine very well.
Not that anyone remembers, but the Government handled the resulting rise in energy prices as well as it could afford to do, with large-scale energy bill subsidies.
This government came to power on the basis of investing in areas that had for generations voted Labour, in the expectation that they would finally get to see some cash. Sadly. Covid and Ukraine took all that money and more. The one saving grace is that if Corbyn had won in 2019, he would have already spent all the cash needed to get us through these two crises. God alone knows how we would have managed. In all likelihood, we would have had no money for furlough and be struggling with millions more unemployed.
One area where this Government does not blow its own trumpet is in jobs creation. They have an especially good case on youth unemployment - this is at low levels that prevous Labour governments could only dream about. When Labour says "What have you done for our young?", the answer is "Ensured they have jobs."
Each of these testing situations was a once-in-a-generation challenge. The government handled them as well as could have been expected. More importantly, I don't see a cigarette paper between how the Government responded - and how Labour says it would have handled things. Those desperate for change - you've effectively had a Labour government for the past five years. Prepare to be very disappointed.
It's unfortunate we won't get to see the results of the Covid inquiry until much later, but I think there will be a couple of stern words said about preparedness and the speed of response. It was very, very clear by February that the government needed to do something but Boris delayed for ideological reasons. He downplayed the severity, setting the wrong tone. These failures cost lives and I expect the report will say as much. This cultural blinkeredness continued, of course, through to the Downing Street parties. Further, I also think "eat out to help out" will attract some criticism for pushing up cases and for damaging the health messaging.
The preparedness thing will be a blame spread across many more people, of course.
The purpose here is to detail the potential mistakes, because your assessment of "ok" is probably correct, but you only gave positive examples. It we're going to add narrative to that judgement, we need to talk about the bad as well as the good.
I give them something of a pass on that, not because it was handled well, but because it's unclear anyone else would have done massively better on that. A 'perfect' response might significantly have altered the course of the UK pandemic, but given the infectivity of the virus, a bit better management wouldn't have done so.
The real failures IMO were the huge amounts of money blown on failing to transition quickly from expensive and slow PCR 'track and trace' policy to lateral flow tests; on were clearly corrupt contracts for PPE; and on fraudulent loans and the failure to recover significant amounts.
We'd still be financially stretched, but we might be anywhere between 50 and 100 £bn better off.
“Clearly corrupt”? Citation needed. A massive slur on thousands of hard working civil servants who did their best to implement an imperfect solution at speed, and a very naive view on how much influence politicians can have over that much procurement.
Quit Moneing.
She was a [redacted for legal reasons]. I have seen no one suggest that anyone awarding contracts was corrupt. To suggest that is awful.
As mentioned in @ShippersUnbound long read, we found voters are currently more likely to believe Keir Starmer than Rishi Sunak in the £2,000 tax row that dominated last weeks debate. Though a significant number don't know (Whole piece well worth a read!)
Perhaps. The more pertinent aspect is WHO the people they convince are - if you 'only' convince 20% but half of them change voting because of it and the 40% who are not convinced and DKs just stick with their vote you've effected a big shift. Campaigns aren't about overwhelming convincing, they are about targeted convincing
The conservation has just turned to Tories have cost us £13k in extra tax this parliament and everyone expects some more in the next one. Labour £2k over 4 years doesn't sound unreasonable or frightening in that context.
Of course this is unfair to the Tories, but when you are losing, life isn't fair.
The conversation is still on the beach tbf My point would remain however. What is sticking and with whom. The 13k will no more universally connect than £2094. Its not a simple binary. It never is
Look at the polls. Or what the cabinet are doing. Mel Stride is last man batting for Rishi. They had some guy not even Rishi had heard of doing the rounds yesterday who had to keep saying, no idea its all well above my pay grade.
That's different. The fact hes incompetent at campaigning is irrelevant to the general nature of campaigning and the disconnect between 'how a policy polls with everyone' to 'how a policy affects votes'.
Quite a shift on Sporting spreads today - Conservative seats out to 118/126. They had been selling as low as 109, and were settled around 111/119 for a long time.
I can't see any obvious explanation. Is David Cameron taking over?
There hasn't been a similar move on Betfair, but then I've been struck before by the lack of sync between the two markets. This is exploitable, if you have the time and patience.
Might it just be yesterday’s polls?
They were pretty ‘meh’ really. No crossover, or even any great sign of Faragasm. Nor even any diabolical shift from D-Day, although that may still be in the wash.
I think a lot of the ‘wipeout’ talk and crossover has been wild and misplaced. Buying Cons seats yesterday and the day before was good value and I think it very probably still is.
Very funny but last night I went to a (very, very rare for me) military shindig. Some serving and plenty of retired soldiers age range I would say (incl those serving) 25-70.
I was on a very agreeable table and a friend leaned over to me, waved at the assembled masses and said: you see all these people, these people are Reform voters.
He is a local councillor and said that there had been a lot of eastern European immigration into the area and as a result "locals" couldn't find a school or GP or whatnot for love nor money.
It surprised him (as did the enthusiasm for Brexit seven years ago) but there you are.
They are making all the same mistakes all over again. In almost 20 years they've learned nothing and forgotten nothing.
Insinuating Farage is like the "SS" is just stupid Met hyberlibz hyperbolic bullshit that just accentuates division and fuels populism.
I think it’s rather Farage who accentuates division and fuels populism!
"Populist" and "far-right " are just words that some people use about politicians who are serious about stopping mass immigration.
When you crack jokes like "SS" ordinary people hear that you think they're Nazis for wanting something done about it, so think Foxtrot Oscar in return and thus amplify their vote.
The solution is to treat them respectfully and seriously address their concerns.
I haven’t cracked jokes about the SS or called Farage “far right”.
I call Farage populist because he is. Here’s the Wikipedia definition: “Populism is a range of political stances that emphasize the idea of "the people" and often juxtapose this group with "the elite". It is frequently associated with anti-establishment and anti-political sentiment.” That’s Farage to a tee. He cried, “Join the revolt!” in his closing speech at the 7-way debate. He went on and on about Labour and the Conservatives being the same. That is classic populism.
So, yes, it is Farage who accentuates division and fuels populism.
As mentioned in @ShippersUnbound long read, we found voters are currently more likely to believe Keir Starmer than Rishi Sunak in the £2,000 tax row that dominated last weeks debate. Though a significant number don't know (Whole piece well worth a read!)
I think you have to be careful on this sort of analysis. This is a half formed though so bear with me.
If we assume that the absolute maximum vote for Sunak is the 2019 Tory vote, and he’s not in the business of attracting new ones, then the views of the public over all matter very little to him. Especially if you allow for the fact that, in reality, he’s after only 3/4 of them to get himself into the low-mid 30s and avoid a super-bad loss.
All that being the case, you have to judge everything he says on the basis of “does it convince those people and sod the rest”. Don’t look at why the public thinks, focus on 2019 Tories, now with Labour, Reform, and Don’t Know.
Obviously his issue is that he’s actually alienating them…
Quite a shift on Sporting spreads today - Conservative seats out to 118/126. They had been selling as low as 109, and were settled around 111/119 for a long time.
I can't see any obvious explanation. Is David Cameron taking over?
There hasn't been a similar move on Betfair, but then I've been struck before by the lack of sync between the two markets. This is exploitable, if you have the time and patience.
Might it just be yesterday’s polls?
They were pretty ‘meh’ really. No crossover, or even any great sign of Faragasm. Nor even any diabolical shift from D-Day, although that may still be in the wash.
I think a lot of the ‘wipeout’ talk and crossover has been wild and misplaced. Buying Cons seats yesterday and the day before was good value and I think it very probably still is.
If crossover does not occur with Redfield tomorrow or YG Weds I suspect it will not. (Gb wide, Wales a different story perhaps). Could also be feedback of how DDay and Refgasm have gone down on the doorsteps has entered the betting market in a more comprehensive way
Farage is just a nasty piece of work and to be fair if I had a choice between Farage and Sunak, Sunak would win every time notwithstanding his idiotic behaviour over D day
Labour saying new prisons will be deemed nationally significant and so decided by ministers is good, but we'll see if that survives individual MP outrage.
And money
If the prisons idea makes it into the manifesto then you can be sure they'll have costed it. They've been going out of their way to make as few spending commitments and revenue raising pledges as possible, as we know, so as to present the smallest possible target for the hapless Tories to try to hit.
We might know by tonight if crossover is coming tomorrow. Redfield are awful at keeping Schtum, and I've seen hints from 'briefed' journos on a sunday evening before about a terrible poll coming. If not, they send out embargoed copies at 10am on Monday and the usual suspects will start giving it the eyes emoji big bollox teasers
As mentioned in @ShippersUnbound long read, we found voters are currently more likely to believe Keir Starmer than Rishi Sunak in the £2,000 tax row that dominated last weeks debate. Though a significant number don't know (Whole piece well worth a read!)
I think you have to be careful on this sort of analysis. This is a half formed though so bear with me.
If we assume that the absolute maximum vote for Sunak is the 2019 Tory vote, and he’s not in the business of attracting new ones, then the views of the public over all matter very little to him. Especially if you allow for the fact that, in reality, he’s after only 3/4 of them to get himself into the low-mid 30s and avoid a super-bad loss.
All that being the case, you have to judge everything he says on the basis of “does it convince those people and sod the rest”. Don’t look at why the public thinks, focus on 2019 Tories, now with Labour, Reform, and Don’t Know.
Obviously his issue is that he’s actually alienating them…
Yeah. There's nothing intrinsically wrong with the strategy (especially so if you have accepted you are headed for defeat whatever. Makes a ton of sense). Unfortunately, the day-to-day tactics and decision making are utterly dire.
Labour saying new prisons will be deemed nationally significant and so decided by ministers is good, but we'll see if that survives individual MP outrage.
Excellent policy. Vital infrastructure including railways, 4G/5G sites etc. next please in urban areas.
5000-6000 places could come from a modest reduction of those held on remand.
Sunak has somehow done worse than I thought he would. He's conspired to make 2017 look positively strategic.
For an intelligent chap, he sure makes a lot of very dumb decisions.
Being intelligent does not make you into a politician
If it did we may have a better society and future
Intelligence does not necessarily equate to common sense, and an Oxbridge first can often be surpassed by a third from the University of Life.
When I was in business I employed a graduate from University, and he was utterly hopeless and apparently had to report to his father every night on his day in work
He was the only person I had to issue a P45 to in 35 years running my business
Labour saying new prisons will be deemed nationally significant and so decided by ministers is good, but we'll see if that survives individual MP outrage.
And money
If the prisons idea makes it into the manifesto then you can be sure they'll have costed it. They've been going out of their way to make as few spending commitments and revenue raising pledges as possible, as we know, so as to present the smallest possible target for the hapless Tories to try to hit.
The IFS were clear on Sky this morning that labours ruling out tax increases and with existing commitments, outside health and defence there is no money
Labour saying new prisons will be deemed nationally significant and so decided by ministers is good, but we'll see if that survives individual MP outrage.
And money
If the prisons idea makes it into the manifesto then you can be sure they'll have costed it. They've been going out of their way to make as few spending commitments and revenue raising pledges as possible, as we know, so as to present the smallest possible target for the hapless Tories to try to hit.
The IFS were clear on Sky this morning that labours ruling out tax increases and with existing commitments, outside health and defence there is no money
Emily T cheerfully told us this morning larger classes as a result of private school VAT is no biggie. Not sure parents will share that view
Interesting chat with an Ashfield Independent leaflet man, who covers a big area.
Says they have 4000 placards going out soon.
We'll see.
My thoughts in the next header.
Bonus: Chap thinks its between AI and Reform, and that essentially the Leeanderthal man has shat his bed too many times (and a few unmentionable 'rumours', plus mentionable gossip about Mrs Anderson being allegedly ejected by the Tories for canvassing for Reform).
That comes across as a classic Lib Dem style narrative - marginalise the real threat, talk up the not-a-threat.
As mentioned in @ShippersUnbound long read, we found voters are currently more likely to believe Keir Starmer than Rishi Sunak in the £2,000 tax row that dominated last weeks debate. Though a significant number don't know (Whole piece well worth a read!)
I think you have to be careful on this sort of analysis. This is a half formed though so bear with me.
If we assume that the absolute maximum vote for Sunak is the 2019 Tory vote, and he’s not in the business of attracting new ones, then the views of the public over all matter very little to him. Especially if you allow for the fact that, in reality, he’s after only 3/4 of them to get himself into the low-mid 30s and avoid a super-bad loss.
All that being the case, you have to judge everything he says on the basis of “does it convince those people and sod the rest”. Don’t look at why the public thinks, focus on 2019 Tories, now with Labour, Reform, and Don’t Know.
Obviously his issue is that he’s actually alienating them…
The Labour tax bombshell claim may be the Conservatives best strategy. It isn't actually a good strategy but the Tories don't have any of those left. Some people appear to believe the claim and those are the people the Conservatives are trying to keep onside.
Quite a shift on Sporting spreads today - Conservative seats out to 118/126. They had been selling as low as 109, and were settled around 111/119 for a long time.
I can't see any obvious explanation. Is David Cameron taking over?
There hasn't been a similar move on Betfair, but then I've been struck before by the lack of sync between the two markets. This is exploitable, if you have the time and patience.
Might it just be yesterday’s polls?
They were pretty ‘meh’ really. No crossover, or even any great sign of Faragasm. Nor even any diabolical shift from D-Day, although that may still be in the wash.
I think a lot of the ‘wipeout’ talk and crossover has been wild and misplaced. Buying Cons seats yesterday and the day before was good value and I think it very probably still is.
There wasn't anything special about yesterday's polls - usual mix of good and bad news. Maybe we are seeing a reaction to an overreaction. You have to be careful interpreting the spreads anyway. At these levels, anyone selling Con seats is backing very heavy odds on, and the risk/reward ratio is extreme.
Betfair's main seat and majority markets haven't moved much, and these translate much more accurately to perceived results. But then as I said, these markets haven't moved much in the last 24 hours.
Maybe there's some profit taking going on. Not sure.
As amusing as the Leon-Sandpit bet is... It is not very realistic. It is almost impossible to see the Tories getting zero seats - but an effective zero of say sub-50 seats is plausible - maybe for odds of say 100-1
Labour saying new prisons will be deemed nationally significant and so decided by ministers is good, but we'll see if that survives individual MP outrage.
And money
If the prisons idea makes it into the manifesto then you can be sure they'll have costed it. They've been going out of their way to make as few spending commitments and revenue raising pledges as possible, as we know, so as to present the smallest possible target for the hapless Tories to try to hit.
The IFS were clear on Sky this morning that labours ruling out tax increases and with existing commitments, outside health and defence there is no money
Was there information about what they have *not* ruled out, eg new taxes or things not mentioned. Are there any Unmentioned Knowns in the gaps between the promises?
On a betting opportunity related note, ignoring dday etc for a moment, if Labour are to decline in polling presenting a 'sell seats' opportunity then watch polling next weekend and early into the following week after the manifesto comes out. The first chance many of the 'any change' protest and angry voters will have seen what their current home is offering. If it underwhelms then that's when any shift might happen as they conclude theres no point in them and WNV or go protest voting. If it delights then the opposite effect may kick in.
Labour saying new prisons will be deemed nationally significant and so decided by ministers is good, but we'll see if that survives individual MP outrage.
And money
If the prisons idea makes it into the manifesto then you can be sure they'll have costed it. They've been going out of their way to make as few spending commitments and revenue raising pledges as possible, as we know, so as to present the smallest possible target for the hapless Tories to try to hit.
The IFS were clear on Sky this morning that labours ruling out tax increases and with existing commitments, outside health and defence there is no money
Emily T cheerfully told us this morning larger classes as a result of private school VAT is no biggie. Not sure parents will share that view
Emily would be all in favour of school selection by house price, rather than parents scrimping and saving, not going on holiday, and driving an old car, to send their kids to the best school in town.
Labour saying new prisons will be deemed nationally significant and so decided by ministers is good, but we'll see if that survives individual MP outrage.
And money
If the prisons idea makes it into the manifesto then you can be sure they'll have costed it. They've been going out of their way to make as few spending commitments and revenue raising pledges as possible, as we know, so as to present the smallest possible target for the hapless Tories to try to hit.
The IFS were clear on Sky this morning that labours ruling out tax increases and with existing commitments, outside health and defence there is no money
Emily T cheerfully told us this morning larger classes as a result of private school VAT is no biggie. Not sure parents will share that view
It’s when little Tarquin and Esmerelda’s parents miraculously get all the places in the good state schools for them in the same year the school gets a new sports hall, that the issues will start.
We might know by tonight if crossover is coming tomorrow. Redfield are awful at keeping Schtum, and I've seen hints from 'briefed' journos on a sunday evening before about a terrible poll coming. If not, they send out embargoed copies at 10am on Monday and the usual suspects will start giving it the eyes emoji big bollox teasers
I sense reform might fall back a bit, now
They’ve had their big boost - Farage’s astutely timed announcement. But now they will struggle to get media attention
For a serious crossover to take place (ie not some transitory statistical fluke) Farage needs a major news story to go in his favour. Some terrible terror attack by a boat person, or Angela Rayner coming out in support of Isis on children’s TV and trying to behead Prince William with Grant Shapps as her surprisingly bald accomplice as they both clutch copies of Ibram X Kendi’s “How To Be An Antiracist”, something like that
Labour saying new prisons will be deemed nationally significant and so decided by ministers is good, but we'll see if that survives individual MP outrage.
Excellent policy. Vital infrastructure including railways, 4G/5G sites etc. next please in urban areas.
5000-6000 places could come from a modest reduction of those held on remand.
Which would presumably be achievable if only the courts worked more quickly? That's something else that needs bags of cash but is towards the back of the queue - mostly. The Labour manifesto is apparently going to contain some targeted measures to expedite the prosecution of rape cases, but that still leaves everything else to keep going to pot.
Sunak has somehow done worse than I thought he would. He's conspired to make 2017 look positively strategic.
For an intelligent chap, he sure makes a lot of very dumb decisions.
Being intelligent does not make you into a politician
If it did we may have a better society and future
Intelligence does not necessarily equate to common sense, and an Oxbridge first can often be surpassed by a third from the University of Life.
When I was in business I employed a graduate from University, and he was utterly hopeless and apparently had to report to his father every night on his day in work
He was the only person I had to issue a P45 to in 35 years running my business
LTCM has entered the chat.
To create real stupidity, you need genius level experts.
Labour saying new prisons will be deemed nationally significant and so decided by ministers is good, but we'll see if that survives individual MP outrage.
And money
If the prisons idea makes it into the manifesto then you can be sure they'll have costed it. They've been going out of their way to make as few spending commitments and revenue raising pledges as possible, as we know, so as to present the smallest possible target for the hapless Tories to try to hit.
The IFS were clear on Sky this morning that labours ruling out tax increases and with existing commitments, outside health and defence there is no money
Was there information about what they have *not* ruled out, eg new taxes or things not mentioned. Are there any Unmentioned Knowns in the gaps between the promises?
It looks to me like capital gains. Most voters won’t care and harmonising with I/C probably nets you a useful amount (at the start…)
Labour saying new prisons will be deemed nationally significant and so decided by ministers is good, but we'll see if that survives individual MP outrage.
And money
If the prisons idea makes it into the manifesto then you can be sure they'll have costed it. They've been going out of their way to make as few spending commitments and revenue raising pledges as possible, as we know, so as to present the smallest possible target for the hapless Tories to try to hit.
The IFS were clear on Sky this morning that labours ruling out tax increases and with existing commitments, outside health and defence there is no money
Was there information about what they have *not* ruled out, eg new taxes or things not mentioned. Are there any Unmentioned Knowns in the gaps between the promises?
Extra council tax bands then reducing govt funding
Very funny but last night I went to a (very, very rare for me) military shindig. Some serving and plenty of retired soldiers age range I would say (incl those serving) 25-70.
I was on a very agreeable table and a friend leaned over to me, waved at the assembled masses and said: you see all these people, these people are Reform voters.
He is a local councillor and said that there had been a lot of eastern European immigration into the area and as a result "locals" couldn't find a school or GP or whatnot for love nor money.
It surprised him (as did the enthusiasm for Brexit seven years ago) but there you are.
They are making all the same mistakes all over again. In almost 20 years they've learned nothing and forgotten nothing.
Insinuating Farage is like the "SS" is just stupid Met hyberlibz hyperbolic bullshit that just accentuates division and fuels populism.
I think it’s rather Farage who accentuates division and fuels populism!
"Populist" and "far-right " are just words that some people use about politicians who are serious about stopping mass immigration.
When you crack jokes like "SS" ordinary people hear that you think they're Nazis for wanting something done about it, so think Foxtrot Oscar in return and thus amplify their vote.
The solution is to treat them respectfully and seriously address their concerns.
I haven’t cracked jokes about the SS or called Farage “far right”.
I call Farage populist because he is. Here’s the Wikipedia definition: “Populism is a range of political stances that emphasize the idea of "the people" and often juxtapose this group with "the elite". It is frequently associated with anti-establishment and anti-political sentiment.” That’s Farage to a tee. He cried, “Join the revolt!” in his closing speech at the 7-way debate. He went on and on about Labour and the Conservatives being the same. That is classic populism.
So, yes, it is Farage who accentuates division and fuels populism.
That definition encompases most left wing politics. Is Angela Rayner a populist for juxtaposing the interests of ordinary people against the Tory scum who are keeping them down?
Labour saying new prisons will be deemed nationally significant and so decided by ministers is good, but we'll see if that survives individual MP outrage.
And money
If the prisons idea makes it into the manifesto then you can be sure they'll have costed it. They've been going out of their way to make as few spending commitments and revenue raising pledges as possible, as we know, so as to present the smallest possible target for the hapless Tories to try to hit.
The IFS were clear on Sky this morning that labours ruling out tax increases and with existing commitments, outside health and defence there is no money
Was there information about what they have *not* ruled out, eg new taxes or things not mentioned. Are there any Unmentioned Knowns in the gaps between the promises?
Extra council tax bands then reducing govt funding
Unless they have gone raving mad, there is no way they touch council tax. We all know it needs doing, but whoever does it will lose an election.
So either campaigning will continue as before next week, or Sunak will be somewhat less visible, meaning that some of the unsourced reports abd rumours of this weekend will have been right.
Which ministers are popular enough to take up some of the slack?
Mel Stride did a top job on Skye, pushing the "Tories are cutting your taxes" lie. Trevor Philips then puts up the graphic showing that average taxes are £13k higher than in 2019.
Stride then agrees that taxes have gone up. And goes back to saying that taxes have gone down.
Did Trevor Philips put up a graphic of how much public spending had increased since 2019 ?
The way extra public spending is immediately taken for granted and/or forgotten about is a major part of this country's financial problems.
Lol dont be silly, we have to spend spend spend. Nothing can be cut because we'll upset the OBR or crash the economy or something.
The whole fraudulent evasion of discussing where we are economically just means the elctorate is in for a surprise post 4 July.
Ive bought popcorn. Lots of popcorn.
Would anyone have any better suggestions for election night snacks than popcorn?
I think a pork pie might go very well with some beer, and it's a very Farage-themed choice, if I can find any down here. I might have to go up to the city and see if Tesco stock them in Ireland.
One solitary Labour poster in a window round here. Not mine. Nowt else. No leaflets, stalls, canvassers or owt.
Nothing so far either, which is surprising, considering that the Tory majority here is 18,000 which probably makes it a key marginal.
Noticeable lack of "literature" where I live, which must be considered a Con/LD marginal in the present situation.
Leaflet a day from the LDs here; they’re likely to capture the seat (Cheadle) but clearly not taking anything for granted. The tone has been a mix of yer classic bar charts, plus ‘to kick out the Tories you have to vote Lib Dem here’.
As amusing as the Leon-Sandpit bet is... It is not very realistic. It is almost impossible to see the Tories getting zero seats - but an effective zero of say sub-50 seats is plausible - maybe for odds of say 100-1
I reckon the chance of zero seats is closer to 10,000-1, and making the bet both made for a laugh on this forum, and totally made some Ukranian lady’s day when she got a huge donation to her charity for disabled veterans.
Sub-50 seats appears to be closer to 10/1 than 100/1.
We might know by tonight if crossover is coming tomorrow. Redfield are awful at keeping Schtum, and I've seen hints from 'briefed' journos on a sunday evening before about a terrible poll coming. If not, they send out embargoed copies at 10am on Monday and the usual suspects will start giving it the eyes emoji big bollox teasers
I sense reform might fall back a bit, now
They’ve had their big boost - Farage’s astutely timed announcement. But now they will struggle to get media attention
For a serious crossover to take place (ie not some transitory statistical fluke) Farage needs a major news story to go in his favour. Some terrible terror attack by a boat person, or Angela Rayner coming out in support of Isis on children’s TV and trying to behead Prince William with Grant Shapps as her surprisingly bald accomplice as they both clutch copies of Ibram X Kendi’s “How To Be An Antiracist”, something like that
It can’t be ruled out but it’s not probable
Reform need to stop going on about migration, everyone knows where they stand.
They need to pick up on cost of living to engage with a wider section of the electorate.
You can see her lanyard. That’s a volunteer by the flags in Maidan Square. £10
Now you have to give me £10,010 if - WHEN - the Tories get zero seats
Awesome!
We can both be happy. Out of a silly PB bet the Ukrainian charity for newly disabled soldiers has gained £10
Unless, of course, I win the bet…
Leon you have now admitted after you visited the memorial at least 200, 000 ukrainian men have died in this war. Thats a minimum. How many more young ukrainian men are you prepared to see sacrificed to see off Russia.
As amusing as the Leon-Sandpit bet is... It is not very realistic. It is almost impossible to see the Tories getting zero seats - but an effective zero of say sub-50 seats is plausible - maybe for odds of say 100-1
I reckon the chance of zero seats is closer to 10,000-1, and making the bet both made for a laugh on this forum, and totally made some Ukranian lady’s day when she got a huge donation to her charity for disabled veterans.
Sub-50 seats appears to be closer to 10/1 than 100/1.
As amusing as the Leon-Sandpit bet is... It is not very realistic. It is almost impossible to see the Tories getting zero seats - but an effective zero of say sub-50 seats is plausible - maybe for odds of say 100-1
Sub 50 is 5/1 on Betfair.
Your right about Sandy's now legendary bet. Zero seats ain't gonna happen, but you gotta have some cojones to lay it at 1,000/1 !
We might know by tonight if crossover is coming tomorrow. Redfield are awful at keeping Schtum, and I've seen hints from 'briefed' journos on a sunday evening before about a terrible poll coming. If not, they send out embargoed copies at 10am on Monday and the usual suspects will start giving it the eyes emoji big bollox teasers
Considering how little last week's events moved the polls - Farage, the debates, Liargate, D-Day and Ed Davey diving into the cold lentil soup - I think there's a lot to be said for the view that most people have now made up their minds.
Rishi Sunak’s aides realised immediately that his interview with ITV’s Paul Brand on Thursday afternoon was going to be a problem hanging over them for the better part of a week. In a 25-minute grilling, to be broadcast on Wednesday, the prime minister endured a torrid time over his personal wealth, leading to “frank exchanges” with his interviewer.
Sunak has somehow done worse than I thought he would. He's conspired to make 2017 look positively strategic.
For an intelligent chap, he sure makes a lot of very dumb decisions.
Being intelligent does not make you into a politician
If it did we may have a better society and future
Intelligence does not necessarily equate to common sense, and an Oxbridge first can often be surpassed by a third from the University of Life.
There are many intelligences, of course. And IQ only tests some (at most). Oxbridge firsts (like any uni degree) are better than that if they include a decent component of course work as well as conventional exams, but still.
You can see her lanyard. That’s a volunteer by the flags in Maidan Square. £10
Now you have to give me £10,010 if - WHEN - the Tories get zero seats
Awesome!
We can both be happy. Out of a silly PB bet the Ukrainian charity for newly disabled soldiers has gained £10
Unless, of course, I win the bet…
Leon you have now admitted after you visited the memorial at least 200, 000 ukrainian men have died in this war. Thats a minimum. How many more young ukrainian men are you prepared to see sacrificed to see off Russia.
One solitary Labour poster in a window round here. Not mine. Nowt else. No leaflets, stalls, canvassers or owt.
Nothing so far either, which is surprising, considering that the Tory majority here is 18,000 which probably makes it a key marginal.
Noticeable lack of "literature" where I live, which must be considered a Con/LD marginal in the present situation.
Husband relates that we have actually had LD and Lab leaflets through the post, but he sent them straight to recycling. No sign of any posters around though.
Depending on whether this election ends with a mere thrashing or an asteroid impact, either the Tory survives narrowly or Labour will actually get in.
Those numbers are absolutely unbelievable and show how much at odds Western so-called "democratic" leaders are with their populations on Ukraine.
It's a survey compiled by the Institute for Global Affairs, part of @EurasiaGroup , one of the leading American political risk consultancies.
An incredible 94% of Americans and 88% of Western Europeans believe that "NATO member countries [should] push for a negotiated settlement for the war in Ukraine". And only a tiny minority in both countries (less than 20%) believe that the West should prioritize goals like "Weakening Russia" or "Restoring the pre-2022 borders of Ukraine", instead vastly favoring goals like "avoiding escalation" and "avoiding direct war between nuclear armed powers".
I always had the distinct feeling that most of the populations in the West were opposed to their governments' policies on Ukraine, but I never expected such overwhelming numbers. This says so much about Western "democracy" today, and also about the media class which tells us continuously how important fighting Russia is: not only do they not represent the voice of the people, but they really don't convince them either...
Another interesting and very related insight is that when asked "which of the following are the biggest challenges your country faces today?", by far the most popular answer is "political elites making decisions that hurt the public". Case in point...
As amusing as the Leon-Sandpit bet is... It is not very realistic. It is almost impossible to see the Tories getting zero seats - but an effective zero of say sub-50 seats is plausible - maybe for odds of say 100-1
I reckon the chance of zero seats is closer to 10,000-1, and making the bet both made for a laugh on this forum, and totally made some Ukranian lady’s day when she got a huge donation to her charity for disabled veterans.
Sub-50 seats appears to be closer to 10/1 than 100/1.
Is £10 a lot in Ukraine?
GDP/capita is around $5,000 per year. Lots of people make a couple of hundred bucks a month. Then there’s the war context.
We might know by tonight if crossover is coming tomorrow. Redfield are awful at keeping Schtum, and I've seen hints from 'briefed' journos on a sunday evening before about a terrible poll coming. If not, they send out embargoed copies at 10am on Monday and the usual suspects will start giving it the eyes emoji big bollox teasers
I sense reform might fall back a bit, now
They’ve had their big boost - Farage’s astutely timed announcement. But now they will struggle to get media attention
For a serious crossover to take place (ie not some transitory statistical fluke) Farage needs a major news story to go in his favour. Some terrible terror attack by a boat person, or Angela Rayner coming out in support of Isis on children’s TV and trying to behead Prince William with Grant Shapps as her surprisingly bald accomplice as they both clutch copies of Ibram X Kendi’s “How To Be An Antiracist”, something like that
It can’t be ruled out but it’s not probable
Yeah i think unless they can ride a crossover wave right now it's all about how much core the blues can shore
My friends what on Earth has happened to Owen Jones? He's been completely captured.
He was always a risk, I think - Deep Momentum - but Gaza has fully broken his brain. A shame. His books are shite but he’s been a decent pamphleteering journalist in the past.
PUTIN: TRUMP’S POLITICALLY MOTIVATED PROSECUTION BURNED U.S. DEMOCRACY TO THE GROUND
"It is obvious all over the world that the prosecution of Trump... is simply the utilization of the judicial system during an internal political struggle.
Their supposed leadership in the sphere of democracy is being burned to the ground.”
There’s a guy in the tranquil grounds of St Sophia’s cathedral playing a balalaika (I think?) and singing the most beautifully melancholic Ukrainian folk song. Honestly. The whole country is like a stage set for a movie about the horror and pity of war. Down the road there is another forest of flags and burned out tanks and endless photos of handsome young men killed in action
Hard not to blub. I imagine Britain must have had something of this atmos during world war 1
Those numbers are absolutely unbelievable and show how much at odds Western so-called "democratic" leaders are with their populations on Ukraine.
It's a survey compiled by the Institute for Global Affairs, part of @EurasiaGroup , one of the leading American political risk consultancies.
An incredible 94% of Americans and 88% of Western Europeans believe that "NATO member countries [should] push for a negotiated settlement for the war in Ukraine". And only a tiny minority in both countries (less than 20%) believe that the West should prioritize goals like "Weakening Russia" or "Restoring the pre-2022 borders of Ukraine", instead vastly favoring goals like "avoiding escalation" and "avoiding direct war between nuclear armed powers".
I always had the distinct feeling that most of the populations in the West were opposed to their governments' policies on Ukraine, but I never expected such overwhelming numbers. This says so much about Western "democracy" today, and also about the media class which tells us continuously how important fighting Russia is: not only do they not represent the voice of the people, but they really don't convince them either...
Another interesting and very related insight is that when asked "which of the following are the biggest challenges your country faces today?", by far the most popular answer is "political elites making decisions that hurt the public". Case in point...
This survey shows that this board is out of touch with public opinion. Most want an end to the war.
Indeed, with the Russian fuckwits sent back to Russia.
Fingers crossed there will a few more missiles heading for Belgorod, Rostov, and other border towns, but the Ukranians are only targeting military facilities rather than civilian infrastructure.
You can see her lanyard. That’s a volunteer by the flags in Maidan Square. £10
Now you have to give me £10,010 if - WHEN - the Tories get zero seats
Awesome!
We can both be happy. Out of a silly PB bet the Ukrainian charity for newly disabled soldiers has gained £10
Unless, of course, I win the bet…
Leon you have now admitted after you visited the memorial at least 200, 000 ukrainian men have died in this war. Thats a minimum. How many more young ukrainian men are you prepared to see sacrificed to see off Russia.
Off we go again.
You would've thought the FSB had better things to do with their time.
Comments
The sane reaction to 1000/1 odds on something like that is to put as much money as you wouldn't mind if you lost it in the street.
Bit like putting a few quid on the lottery
For bad political forecasting…
Unless, of course, I win the bet…
If so, that’s sheer madness.
Or am I missing something? I wasn’t paying full attention, I confess.
Also quite a few Remainer journalists see this as final revenge for Brexit. Sunak is copping that flak as well
Talking of flak….
As populist cruelty is de rigeur
I mean, duck!
When you crack jokes like "SS" ordinary people hear that you think they're Nazis for wanting something done about it, so think Foxtrot Oscar in return and thus amplify their vote.
The solution is to treat them respectfully and seriously address their concerns.
I can't see any obvious explanation. Is David Cameron taking over?
There hasn't been a similar move on Betfair, but then I've been struck before by the lack of sync between the two markets. This is exploitable, if you have the time and patience.
If I lose the bet, it will be the PB story to end all PB stories, so let’s go!
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/09/politics-election-campaign-latest-news/
An incredible cause - bravo both of you.
They were pretty ‘meh’ really. No crossover, or even any great sign of Faragasm. Nor even any diabolical shift from D-Day, although that may still be in the wash.
I think a lot of the ‘wipeout’ talk and crossover has been wild and misplaced. Buying Cons seats yesterday and the day before was good value and I think it very probably still is.
Hat tip @Casino_Royale for that
I call Farage populist because he is. Here’s the Wikipedia definition: “Populism is a range of political stances that emphasize the idea of "the people" and often juxtapose this group with "the elite". It is frequently associated with anti-establishment and anti-political sentiment.” That’s Farage to a tee. He cried, “Join the revolt!” in his closing speech at the 7-way debate. He went on and on about Labour and the Conservatives being the same. That is classic populism.
So, yes, it is Farage who accentuates division and fuels populism.
If we assume that the absolute maximum vote for Sunak is the 2019 Tory vote, and he’s not in the business of attracting new ones, then the views of the public over all matter very little to him. Especially if you allow for the fact that, in reality, he’s after only 3/4 of them to get himself into the low-mid 30s and avoid a super-bad loss.
All that being the case, you have to judge everything he says on the basis of “does it convince those people and sod the rest”. Don’t look at why the public thinks, focus on 2019 Tories, now with Labour, Reform, and Don’t Know.
Obviously his issue is that he’s actually alienating them…
Could also be feedback of how DDay and Refgasm have gone down on the doorsteps has entered the betting market in a more comprehensive way
Says they have 4000 placards going out soon.
We'll see.
My thoughts in the next header.
There's nothing intrinsically wrong with the strategy (especially so if you have accepted you are headed for defeat whatever. Makes a ton of sense).
Unfortunately, the day-to-day tactics and decision making are utterly dire.
He was the only person I had to issue a P45 to in 35 years running my business
Nowt else.
No leaflets, stalls, canvassers or owt.
So whatever their flaws, to their credit Johnson and Corbyn, Sunak and Starmer have debated one-on-one.
Not sure parents will share that view
That comes across as a classic Lib Dem style narrative - marginalise the real threat, talk up the not-a-threat.
LibDem: 8/11 with Betway; 4/6 generally
Con (Hunt): 5/4 with Hills
Labour: 20/1
RefUK: 66/1
Green: 250/1
https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/uk-constituencies/next-uk-general-election-constituencies/godalming-and-ash
Betfair's main seat and majority markets haven't moved much, and these translate much more accurately to perceived results. But then as I said, these markets haven't moved much in the last 24 hours.
Maybe there's some profit taking going on. Not sure.
They’ve had their big boost - Farage’s astutely timed announcement. But now they will struggle to get media attention
For a serious crossover to take place (ie not some transitory statistical fluke) Farage needs a major news story to go in his favour. Some terrible terror attack by a boat person, or Angela Rayner coming out in support of Isis on children’s TV and trying to behead Prince William with Grant Shapps as her surprisingly bald accomplice as they both clutch copies of Ibram X Kendi’s “How To Be An Antiracist”, something like that
It can’t be ruled out but it’s not probable
To create real stupidity, you need genius level experts.
Had one Labour leaflet and nowt from the Tories.
https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4822856#Comment_4822856
Sub-50 seats appears to be closer to 10/1 than 100/1.
They need to pick up on cost of living to engage with a wider section of the electorate.
Your right about Sandy's now legendary bet. Zero seats ain't gonna happen, but you gotta have some cojones to lay it at 1,000/1 !
Depending on whether this election ends with a mere thrashing or an asteroid impact, either the Tory survives narrowly or Labour will actually get in.
It's a survey compiled by the Institute for Global Affairs, part of
@EurasiaGroup
, one of the leading American political risk consultancies.
An incredible 94% of Americans and 88% of Western Europeans believe that "NATO member countries [should] push for a negotiated settlement for the war in Ukraine". And only a tiny minority in both countries (less than 20%) believe that the West should prioritize goals like "Weakening Russia" or "Restoring the pre-2022 borders of Ukraine", instead vastly favoring goals like "avoiding escalation" and "avoiding direct war between nuclear armed powers".
I always had the distinct feeling that most of the populations in the West were opposed to their governments' policies on Ukraine, but I never expected such overwhelming numbers. This says so much about Western "democracy" today, and also about the media class which tells us continuously how important fighting Russia is: not only do they not represent the voice of the people, but they really don't convince them either...
Another interesting and very related insight is that when asked "which of the following are the biggest challenges your country faces today?", by far the most popular answer is "political elites making decisions that hurt the public". Case in point...
That's the link to the survey: https://instituteforglobalaffairs.org/2024/06/modeling-democracy-the-new-atlanticism/
https://x.com/RnaudBertrand/status/1799009771024158970
"It is obvious all over the world that the prosecution of Trump... is simply the utilization of the judicial system during an internal political struggle.
Their supposed leadership in the sphere of democracy is being burned to the ground.”
Source: Barron’s
https://x.com/MarioNawfal/status/1799330578061291805
Hard not to blub. I imagine Britain must have had something of this atmos during world war 1
Fingers crossed there will a few more missiles heading for Belgorod, Rostov, and other border towns, but the Ukranians are only targeting military facilities rather than civilian infrastructure.
You would've thought the FSB had better things to do with their time.